The Wolf Of All Streets - Ethereum To Hit $4,000 By May?

Episode Date: January 31, 2024

My guest today is James Butterfill, Head Of Research at CoinShares. We are going to discuss the potential Ethereum spot ETF, and its impact on the price of Ether, as well as some latest research insig...hts for 2024. In the second part I will be joined by Chris Inks for some of his top trades.  James Butterfill: https://twitter.com/jbutterfill Chris Inks: https://twitter.com/TXWestCapital ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEK DAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/   ►►OKX SIGN UP FOR AN OKX TRADING ACCOUNT THEN DEPOSIT & TRADE TO UNLOCK MYSTERY BOX REWARDS OF UP TO $60,000!  👉 https://www.okx.com/join/SCOTTMELKER  ►►TRADING ALPHA READY TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS? THE BEST TRADERS IN CRYPTO ARE RELYING ON THESE INDICATORS TO MAKE TRADES. USE CODE ‘2MONTHSOFF’ WHEN VISITING MY LINK.  👉 https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker   ►►THE DAILY CLOSE BRAND NEW NEWSLETTER! INSTITUTIONAL GRADE INDICATORS AND DATA DELIVERED DIRECTLY TO YOUR INBOX, EVERY DAY AT THE DAILY CLOSE. TRADE LIKE THE BIG BOYS. 👉 https://www.thedailyclose.io/   ►►NGRAVE This is the coldest hardware wallet in the world and the only one that I personally use. 👉https://www.ngrave.io/?sca_ref=4531319.pgXuTYJlYd ►►NORD VPN  GET EXCLUSIVE NORDVPN DEAL - 40% DISCOUNT! IT’S RISK-FREE WITH NORD’S 30-DAY MONEY-BACK GUARANTEE. PROTECT YOUR PRIVACY! 👉 https://nordvpn.com/WolfOfAllStreets   ►►COINROUTES TRADE SPOT & DERIVATIVES ACROSS CEFI AND DEFI USING YOUR OWN ACCOUNTS WITH THIS ADVANCED ALGORITHMIC PLATFORM. SAVE TONS OF MONEY ON TRADING FEES LIKE THE PROS! 👉 http://bit.ly/3ZXeYKd  Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://twitter.com/scottmelker   Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.io   Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe   Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c   #Bitcoin #Crypto #ethereum  Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 1:17 Airdrops on Solana 3:10 Ethereum to $4,000 7:40 ETF cash flows 11:30 Rate cuts 14:00 Miners 16:40 Bitcoin price post halving 20:50 Bitcoin chart 25:30 Solana 28:40 Optimism 30:40 Chainlink 33:15 Wrap up The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 Standard Chartered, our favorite institution for hyperbolic price predictions on crypto assets, says that Ethereum is going to $4,000 by May. There's a good reason for this, actually. I think it could personally go higher, but I'm curious to hear what today's guest, Jamesows and outflows to both ETF and other crypto projects, and maybe to have two boomers try to figure out what the hell Solana airdrop is. We might even talk about that since today is the Jupiter airdrop, the biggest day in the history of crypto that no person over the age of 40 has any idea about. We've also got Texas West Capital, of course, on the back end to share his thoughts on the market, charts, and trades.
Starting point is 00:00:46 This will be another epic day, guys. Let's go. What is up, everybody? I'm Scott Melker, also known as the Wolf of Wall Street. Let's go. that's ever happened in the history of crypto more important than Bitcoin spot ETFs or Larry Fink, it's the Jupiter airdrop on Solana. Why do people do airdrops? It's to kind of encourage people to use the network more. And I think the issue I have with Solana is that there are lots of airdrops in Solana. And then people sort of look at the usage statistics and trading volumes and think, oh, okay, Solana is being used a lot, but people tend to sort of dip in and out of Solana when these airdrops come along. Does it really mean fundamentally it's a great crypto asset? I'm still skeptical. So that means that when we see DEX volumes are higher than Ethereum or volume and transactions are higher than Ethereum, that that might not be the entire story.
Starting point is 00:02:05 Yeah. I think you have to look at the substance behind it. And if it is just airdrops and people dipping in and out, is that really like a sort of decent use of the network? I'm just slightly skeptical about that because they're all just kind of temporary phenomenon, really. Yeah, I was looking at it this morning and I literally tweeted something to the effect of, I want to start a show that's like Boomer yells at crypto or explain crypto to Boomer or Web3 for Boomers or something so that I could just bring on people who actually understand
Starting point is 00:02:34 this stuff and try to convince me it's real. I was on Spaces yesterday. I said, we hate helicopter money and money printing, but we certainly love a good airdrop in crypto. They explained to me that it was a transfer of value from the project to the audience, but I'm still a skeptic of the airdrops just like you are. Whatever. We don't need to talk about it any further. I had to mention it because it's the biggest story of the day. I still think that Ethereum is fundamentally strong and trailing, and I'm not the only one, obviously. The lead story here, Ethereum ETF approval expected in May, standard chartered predicts, standard chartered loves to make a big prediction. They're basically saying May 23rd is the last day that the agency can consider
Starting point is 00:03:14 Ethereum spot ETF applications from VanEck and ARK21 shares, making it the equivalent to January 10th, basically, for the Bitcoin spot ETFs and take the roadmap of what Bitcoin did in the months leading up to a rumored approval, Ethereum should do the same thing. I mean, what are your thoughts here? Standard Chartered also said that they, wasn't it like 100,000 inflows into Bitcoin this year? If you extrapolate that, according to my model, that would put the Bitcoin price well over 500,000. And it would be 10 times the inflows we've seen in any other year, the best being 2021 at $10 billion. So I think it's not realistic, but I'm actually with them here on Ethereum. I know it actually goes to kind of the point about airdrops and yield, for instance.
Starting point is 00:04:02 You know, how the cryptocurrencies deliver yield, they print more of that cryptocurrency to give it to you. So theoretically, you're being diluted. And the very interesting thing about Ethereum is it has the burn mechanism. And on a net issuance basis, actually, its net issuance is negative. So it's a bit like a share buyback if you're an equity investor. And I think that's really compelling. And in fact, it is the only cryptocurrency that has a negative net issuance, as far as I'm aware, that's of meaningful size and roughly a 4% yield.
Starting point is 00:04:35 That's really quite attractive. It's like you're buying, you know, if you look at tech stock, when tech stocks tend to have, when they in growth mode they tend to have very low yield and so this is a high growth stock but also with a high yield it's quite compelling in my view and so i you know i've not put out any price forecasts at 4000 or anything like that but i could see particularly coming up to the etf launch how the price could rally further and we got a taste for that when the Bitcoin ETF was launched. We saw actually Ethereum rally more than Bitcoin. That was surprising to me. And what I enjoyed was we got the preview of that happening the day before when we got the fake SEC tweet. Literally the second that the fake SEC tweet came out, the Ethereum Bitcoin pair went absolutely
Starting point is 00:05:22 parabolic temporarily. And then we saw the same thing happen again on the announcement. Does that mean that that's simply the traders in this community saying, oh, that narrative's done. Bitcoin's body tests are approved. Let's go on to the next narrative. I mean, is it as simple as that? Yeah, perhaps a little bit. I do think we should be a little bit cautious about May.
Starting point is 00:05:42 I know everyone's estimating they're going to use, guesstimating May the 10th, but don't forget September was the date for Bitcoin. Everyone felt that the Bitcoin ETF would be launched in September, and it wasn't. I think they have a 278-day consultation period, which suggests actually sometime in Q3 uh they would approve it and our our sort of product uh legal guy at coin shares is is adamant that it's actually going to be then
Starting point is 00:06:13 and he's got a pretty good track record for that so there may be a bit of a disappointment uh amongst investors if we see the price really rally up till the main attempt and then it doesn't happen that doesn't change the fundamental story for eth. I just think it will lead to price volatility. Yeah. Listen, I feel like maybe you're joining me, but I'm one of the last ETH bulls alive. And that makes me feel, from a price perspective, I agree with all that fundamentally. I just think it's trailing, but that actually makes me feel very, very comfortable about my position. In this market, I want to be against the massive crowd that's telling me how dead it is and it's never going to go up again. There'll never be another Ethereum bull market.
Starting point is 00:06:53 Yeah. I mean, Ethereum last year was very much the unloved asset from a fund flows perspective, only seeing around $70 million of inflows, whereas Solana, I think, saw 170. So way more, despite it's much, much smaller in size. And this year so far, actually, Ethereum is ahead of Solana in terms of fund flows. So maybe investors are starting to change their viewpoint on Ethereum. That's a perfect segue for me to talk about flows in general. Obviously, you put out a weekly report at CoinShares, Digital Asset Fund Flows Weekly Report. This is from two days ago. US 500 million outflows last week. Grayscale outflows are subsiding though. So we've covered in depth the GBTC sell-off and the flows into and out of
Starting point is 00:07:40 different ETFs and products, but you're watching everything, right? You're not just watching these ETFs, which we keep reporting on. You're watching everything that existed before these ETFs, basically anything that institutions are invested in, any sort of funding crypto. So what are we seeing in general? Is this massive flows out of everything into ETFs, or is this net outflows? What do these numbers mean? Yeah. People thought that as soon as ETFs were launched, that there'd be loads of buying. And in fact, on a net basis, there are positive inflows in the United States of about $1.2 billion now. Just over the last couple of days, there were $790 million worth of inflows into Fidelity and iShares together combined versus only $400 million of outflows from Grayscale.
Starting point is 00:08:31 And actually, what we're seeing is the outflows are slowly dwindling from Grayscale, whereas they seem to be accelerating a little bit in the new issuers. So I think that's a really positive story. But everyone thought, OK, well, net issuance is positive. Why isn't it having a positive effect on the price and for me a lot of people buy where was who seeded bitcoin were buying bitcoin prior to the event so actually what happened was just a change of cash on the ledger and nothing and nothing else so no actual bitcoin buying but a lot of grayscale selling but more broadly broadly across the world, particularly in Europe, we did see selling out.
Starting point is 00:09:08 Some investors shifted back to the United States. Some of those international US-based investors moved their money back to the United States. So there were some minor outflows last week in combination with grayscale. But this week in particular, the outflows in Europe have stopped and we're on a net $430 million inflow this week so far. It's only Wednesday and you've almost X'd out the outflows from last week. I mean, I think rationally hindsight's 2020, but all this makes sense. That trade ended, people wound down the trade, open interest on futures, wound down GBTC outflows. So it's just a matter of when that flow becomes a trickle and stops and demand hasn't really shifted and demand hasn't really waned.
Starting point is 00:09:57 We know from track record that BlackRock have a track record of when they launch an ETF, they tend to see, they don't sort of put all the seed in in one go. They tend to drip feed that seed over the course of a month, two weeks in. So we could continue to see that seed drip feed in. That might not necessarily have the impact we expect on price
Starting point is 00:10:20 because it potentially is already bought. But I do think there's starting to be more signs of organic growth, organic demand now, not just the seed into these new ETFs. Yeah. You guys can see this is the article, Bitcoin and Fidelity spot Bitcoin ETFs close in on grayscale and daily trading volume. You alluded to this. Throughout the day yesterday, actually, all the ETF experts were tracking this and saying this was going to be the first day that there were higher inflows and that there would be higher volume on either BlackRock or Fidelity or combined than GBTC. And then the day ended up closing with GBTC slightly higher. But as you said, these are ships passing in the wind.
Starting point is 00:10:58 But there were higher flows. That's the important thing. Yeah, actually, I didn't realize that. So volume was higher on Grayscale, but flows were higher, you're saying, on BlackRock and Fidelity. That's the important thing. Yeah, actually, I didn't realize that. So volume was higher on grayscale, but flows were higher, you're saying, on BlackRock and Fidelity. Yeah, I think the market's going to get bored of the ETF stuff soon. It is.
Starting point is 00:11:18 And they're going to start talking about the halving more and actually more about interest rates. So we've got obviously FOMC tonight. No rate hike expected, but everyone's looking for indications on March rate cuts. I said rate hikes, I meant rate cuts. And now the consensus is for a May rate cut. March is not happening. There's a huge inverse correlation between the futures rate expectations, the implied rate for March, and Bitcoin prices. There are some 90%% correlated at the moment.
Starting point is 00:11:45 And they weren't late last year because I think the ETF narrative was driving price, not interest rate expectations. And I think the market's beginning to recouple with interest rate expectations, which kind of makes sense. It's an emerging store of value competing with treasuries, for instance. I don't think they're going to cut anytime soon, personally. I know that I'm on the... I mean, that's what the predictive markets say. I don't think they're going to cut anytime soon, personally. I know that I'm on the... I mean, that's what the predictive markets say,
Starting point is 00:12:10 but when have they been right? But yeah, maybe. I don't know. Seems like, why would you cut if everything's so good? Well, perhaps it's wishful thinking. I think in 2021, they were talking about transitory inflation and clearly wrong.
Starting point is 00:12:24 And they acknowledged, well, wrong and they acknowledged well i say they acknowledge that they they at least understand that implicitly that they were wrong and there is a belief among some economists that because they're so aware of being wrong when inflation was rising they like to be more proactive and cut earlier than people expected and that could be March. I'm not in that camp, but I can sympathize with that view. I think the Fed has a track record
Starting point is 00:12:51 of knee jerking on the way up, i.e. waiting too late and then waiting too late on the way down with inflation. Right. So get ahead of it for optics. Great. But we all know that after the pivot, that's when the pain cometh.
Starting point is 00:13:03 Historically. So, you know, that's why I think they delay it till October, November, and then the market crashes two days after the election or something. Once the election's out of the way, then they can pull the rug and let it all fall through. But maybe that's my pessimistic tinfoil hat, American-centric view on the situation. But I think in crypto in general, you're right. We're now going to be talking about macro a lot more again now that the ETF trade is done. I think maybe we'll rotate to Ethereum, but the big narrative inevitably now is going to be the halving, right?
Starting point is 00:13:35 Yeah. You have your mining report, the halving and its impact on hash rate and miners' cost structures. I think we all superficially understand at the core why halving matters. It's really basic supply and demand dynamics. But what does this mean for miners? Are they better prepared for it this time? They were not in the past. Some are and some aren't. So we actually spoke to all the different miners, all their senior management, uh they're taking different approaches some are
Starting point is 00:14:05 saying i'm loading up with new hardware now and in preparation for the price to rise and i'm taking on greater debt as a consequence and i think marathon is a good example it has the largest share of mining production now um and if the price really rises it's because it's got such a dominant position it could really benefit from that and it also has a lot of bitcoin holdings uh others are being a bit more cautious they're saying look i've got a cash pile i'm going to wait until after the halving see what happens and then buy hardware then um and there are others like argo blockchain and Stronghold, which have a 65,000 per Bitcoin average cost of production and a 55. So well above current prices. So things are already hurting for them. And the halving is going to make things particularly grim for them. I mean, historically, does the halving always
Starting point is 00:15:01 wash out even some of the larger miners? Or is it a different situation now because we have so many publicly traded miners and so many large sort of conglomerates that we didn't have before? It depends how much runway they have. So how much cash or Bitcoin do they have sitting on the sidelines to just kind of cover over the loss until the price and they hope that the price rises. So, you know, if the price doesn't rise after the halving, then, you know, Argo blockchain will run out of runway by June. And to have that runway, they have to sell, right? And we also saw a pretty significant miner selling after the ETF, correct?
Starting point is 00:15:40 If I'm not wrong. So is that in advance of the halving? Were they taking advantage of that little sort of price move to the upside to get some runway and profit as you're kind of talking about to prepare for the halving? Why are miners selling now when it seems the narrative is- Yeah. I mean, there are, I'd say about 30% if the price didn't move, we'd have to start selling Bitcoin after the harvest. The average cost of production, I think, is around 37,000. So for most, it's okay. That's for the average cost of production for the miners. So for most, it's okay at current prices.
Starting point is 00:16:17 But yeah, I mean, I just think what will happen is that hash power will stay online. It will just be some of the higher-end cost-production companies will just cease to exist, and the hash power will be immediately acquired by some of the others who've got a lot of cash sitting on the sidelines, like Marathon, like CleanSpark, like Terrawolf, like Skormint, which is a smaller company.
Starting point is 00:16:40 Yeah, and people seem to forget that price doesn't just go up at the halving. Usually, it actually takes six or seven months. company. Yeah. And people seem to forget that price doesn't just go up at the halving, right? Usually it actually takes six or seven months. We have a really boring, choppy, gross price action summer. And then in the fall, all of a sudden prices start to rise. So is that a result of this sort of forced minor selling to survive after the halving before prices go up? Because you don't go straight to an all-time high in May. Right. So they have to be prepared for it not to go up. So we've got we've got three halvings in history to look at and to kind of if you just look on a very simple level. Yes, prices rise quite a lot post halving or six months after halving, which is then you could say, say well history tells me that that's going to happen again and i actually think um bitcoin markets becoming much more mature now and start
Starting point is 00:17:31 to price in events before they actually occur the halving is perfectly known information we know roughly on the 23rd of april or 22nd of april the halving will occur so why aren't they pricing that now and if you actually take 2020 as an example we had covid at that point and then the u.s dumped a load of stimulus checks on people and they were buying bitcoin in the u.s what drove the price was it stimulus checks or bitcoin or was it the halving and that's debatable so i i would act with a little bit of caution on that. I think there's plenty of other fundamental price drivers to look at, like monetary policy, for instance, like the U.S. banking system weakness, U.S. debt, other things, Evergrande problems in China, for instance. Those kind of things, I think, more should be looking at for the Bitcoin price rises. I've seen some pretty compelling charts and ideas. Raoul Pal has been championing this, that we're just in a four-year liquidity cycle and halving happens to line up. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:18:32 So I think everything in the macro has that. There's a four-year cycle in macro too that's much more powerful than the halving, and that's what we're not noticing. Exactly. We had that liquidity cycle in 2020 as well. It's just kind of happenstance. It will get a huge amount of media attention the halving um i hope and also you know we wrote the mining sorry that
Starting point is 00:18:52 might be bad yeah i mean we wrote the mining report because so many people were saying what is going to happen to miners and hopefully on our blog blog.coinshots.com you can see that can help you get a better idea of what could happen. Yeah, I love reading it. I think in the last halving cycle, everything went up because the United States government airdropped Jupe. And that was the reason, right? We're not going to airdrop dollars anymore. We're not going to print stimulus.
Starting point is 00:19:20 We're just going to airdrop crypto coins on Solana in the future to pump the market. I'm curious to see what's going to happen with Solana today, to be quite honest. I think we're going to see a hell of a lot more of these sort of, I don't know what to call it, these techniques to increase liquidity. So it's going to be interesting. I think that most people are going to sell off their massive free money that they just got, and then it probably goes way higher in like five or six days. I think arbitrage and optimism are far more interesting. If you look at the TVL growth, it looks way more compelling than it does in Solano, in my view. Well, next time you're on, we're going to talk about it and dig deeper.
Starting point is 00:20:02 Got to run. Thank you, guys. Everybody, you can follow James right down below in the description. And obviously, as he mentioned, the CoinShares blog is really great. I showed you about three things from it today, but really incredible research if you want to stay on top of what's actually happening in this market. So thank you, James, for that, all your research, writing, and for coming on. Thanks, James.
Starting point is 00:20:23 All right, guys. James Butterfill, always a pleasure to have him on. He's on Spaces with us all the time too. It's nice when you have someone who can actually show you some data and research behind their ideas as opposed to Trust Me Bro, which I think has been the consistent way that we get information in crypto. And now, obviously obviously it's time to talk about the charts and to see what we could could not maybe maybe not might could want to trade on a day like this man i was all excited yesterday bitcoin was up above the daily 50 ma that i saw bearish divergence on the four-hour charts but uh you know five waves up three waves pull back five waves again that is what it is um yeah you know i mean we got the pullback i've been saying that if we drop below you know
Starting point is 00:21:14 below kind of this daily pivot that are and that we would probably drop below the range low and initial target would be that daily s1 pivot um And so that's basically where we bounced there. So we bounced in, we had a nice pin bar there on that support. It was also the EQ here of that large range that we've had since that bear market low. And then, you know, again, we had all this, as I put here, volume dropped off on the breakdown, below range support, price found support on the daily S1 pivot, no follow through lower indicates that the market's not interested in selling off hence we got an impulsive break out back into the range and then need to break out above the daily pivot and i said that back when we were down here uh we got the nice big candle we had some volume come in
Starting point is 00:21:58 on that which we're going to see on a breakout came back, rally up. Now we just pulled back to the range EQ. So I mean, to me, it looks like, again, this is three waves down. It looks like to me a WXY. And so I think we're heading up there toward that 56, 57,000 to get this wave five of three that I still have. There are other counts that I've said before. People have like a one, two, three, four, five here. And then this is two as a flat possible, but until this one, two, one, two doesn't, you know, doesn't keep working. I'm just going to keep following that. By the way, if it is this other one, this one, two here, the wave, the wave three target would be like around 70, 74 000 somewhere up there minimum expected so yeah i mean uh you know everybody freaking out bitcoin moves like you know five percent and all of a sudden everybody's
Starting point is 00:22:53 like oh my god it's the end of the world chicken little running around with the head cut off it's kind of crazy right fun to watch though yeah but um but yes i think it still looks good i think we're still looking good. Let me see here. If we zoom out to you, see the three days just now, Stoke RSI is just now breaking out RSI finding support on, on the EQ there.
Starting point is 00:23:14 And then if we jump to the weekly, you can see the weekly is now resetting down and oversold on the Stoke RSI there. Most telling thing for me, everything else aside, I keep talking about this i don't know how many people are paying attention came in sideways between the r1 and the pivot if we pull back lower down here i expect the pivot to hold if it holds and price starts rallying back
Starting point is 00:23:36 up we get the breakout above the swing high here you're going to see us rallying at least through the r5 i've said that multiple times i'll continue to say that it's just a specific way that price action tends to work out with pivots so um you can just kind of if you're doing the longer term whole thing you can just kind of forget all the other little daily movements anyway you should be get off the 15 minute charts guys if you're going to tell me you're holding for for the next year or so and then you talk about a 15 minute chart. I'm going to throw something at you. Seriously. So, yeah. So I think, you know, I think we're good.
Starting point is 00:24:08 I honestly do. There's a, you know, I think so too. Yeah. We flipped that support resistance area there. So yeah, I think what I was just mentioning before, yeah, this is the daily 50 MA. So I would, I mean, listen, this candle, literally, if it goes up two or $300, we're going to be talking about it, holding the 50MA as support as opposed to losing it. So right now it's just a test.
Starting point is 00:24:28 And then, you know, it always does make me cautious, at least temporarily. We had the bullish divergence at $38,600 with oversold RSI. Now we have overbought RSI and bearish divergence. But right back down, I mean, this $1,000 retrace gave us a full 50% reset on RSI, and we're about to print hidden bullish divergence if we get any kind of elbow up here. So less concerned. To me, this just says, I don't know if you agree,
Starting point is 00:24:52 but when you see it like this and price doesn't move that hard, it might just be a signal that we're going to be chopping sideways and people are going to be very annoyed. Yeah, there's a good chance of that. I don't know. On the low timeframe. I'm certainly not talking about that. Yeah, there's a good chance of that. I don't know. On the low time frame. I'm certainly not talking about that. Yeah, probably on the low time frame,
Starting point is 00:25:11 if that worst case scenario. I think the bottom's in there. I think that is... I think the bottom's in for sure. I think we're just looking for reasons to go long, right? Which is, well, it shouldn't break down long. That's right. You got Solana there.
Starting point is 00:25:25 I can see it. And that's going to be the narrative today. I don't know if you're a boomer like me and probably don't know about airdrops and stuff. What are you talking about boomer? My dad's a boomer. I'm Gen X, man. What are you talking about?
Starting point is 00:25:35 But I mean like crypto boomer. Are you farming? Are you farming juke? There it is or whatever they call this thing. I'm not farming much of anything, man. But yeah, no, this is that same chart that I've been bringing up here since whatever this was, this 2022, when I was talking about the low likely being a good place to buy there. Just been putting this together.
Starting point is 00:25:58 This chart I posted on my Twitter, if anybody's following on that, a comparison of price action between Sol and Bitcoin. And it's basically the same thing here that we're seeing. I mean, you can overlay it. You got the same multi-month kind of sideways pullback and rally back up. We did the same thing here. We broke out and never came back and retested. Oh, excuse me, hiccups here. Never actually retested that big range. Kind of the same thing that we have on Bitcoin here. And so, you know, there we go. We're just kind of doing some sideways.
Starting point is 00:26:35 And we broke out here of this descending wedge. It looks like it's three waves to me. And so I'm looking for wave 5.5 of 3 here up there around 170. There we go. for wave five, five of three here up there around 170. So, um, yeah, I want to see a break, uh, breakout here above what is this? 107 32. If we can do that, that's going to add confidence to my count. That's my, uh, second wave pullback there. And so, um, yeah, if we can pop, we're almost there. We're almost there with this. this uh it was just shy about a dollar shy so if we can get a pop out above that i think we should be good to go up there and uh you know people can keep being upset about solana and whatever and you know everybody's got their
Starting point is 00:27:15 narrative they didn't get in so oh it's the institutional stuff and they're they're bcs yeah they got us yeah this was how i was looking at it like last week. And I bought here literally on the show. I was trying to buy more in this range, but kind of like below this little demand is where I would put a stop. You know, they'd call it like this. And these are my two targets right back to one 26.
Starting point is 00:27:37 And you're a little more, I guess, bullish and one 50 that that's short term. Those are my two like trade targets on this. I don't see any reason to sort of change that. And I, and I have a, I have a long-term bag. I would hold 25% to 30% of this all the way if we get past that. For anybody watching, if you've got a wedge breakout like that,
Starting point is 00:27:58 quick, easy targets are always beginning of the wedge, this top area up here. You're all but guaranteed, as long as that wedge is legit, you're all but guaranteed to at least get there and you'll probably break out higher. But I mean, it takes no thought process at all whatsoever, get the break of the wedge. 80 to, I mean, it's a 50% move, right? It's 80 bucks to 125. To me, that's a really, really good trade. Not like back in the day when you told me to take profit at 3% every time. Yeah, you got to learn somewhere, right? You got to get used to it somewhere. So yeah, I think Solana continues to look good. I think we're just getting kind of going with
Starting point is 00:28:36 that again. It really is mimicking Bitcoin really well through this whole kind of rally. I've got OP here. I know everybody's hot for this for a while, and then they kind of shut up. And here we go now again, right? So I think, you know, we've got this 38-2 pullback. I think this looks like we may be done here. I'm going to break out here above, what is this? $3.67 or so.
Starting point is 00:29:02 If we can do that, it's going to add confidence to my count here. And I've got a wave five of one of this larger one, two, three, right there at $5.82. So right now we're about $3. It's almost 100% move from where we're currently sitting. I think we pull back a little bit more here and then look for that breakout. So, I mean, if you want to get in sooner, the earliest I'd probably get in sooner, unless you're really good at trading, you understand how to get in, uh, would be looking for a breakout back above, um, this, uh, this pivot area right here was
Starting point is 00:29:35 around $3 and 17 cents. That'd be the earliest definitely want the breakout above $3 and 67 cents, but you know, again, $5 and 82 cent, and then a pullback, and then off to the races for that big wave three as we start getting into probably more of the blow off top kind of thing. I haven't been watching OP, but I need to. It's literally been on my like, you should watch this list. And then I forget. But you need a list that says, hey, you need to be watching or you should watch this. Yeah. Well, I just need to go set some alarms. It's what I usually do. I like at least go look at the chart, figure out an area I'm interested in and then move on with my life until it hits.
Starting point is 00:30:11 That's funny. I'm looking at my OP chart. And if I had set an alarm last time someone asked me to look at it, I would have caught the dead ass bottom. That would have been a nice rally up, man. Yeah, nice. That would have been 89 cents, 90 cents. So, yeah, that would have been a nice place for me to have uh that would have been 89 cents 90 cents so yeah that would have been a nice place for me to have gone ahead and set an alarm for a tap of that zone and uh i moved on with my life and didn't so there you go moved on with your life anyway
Starting point is 00:30:34 i'm still still moving on at this very moment so finally we've got link here uh again another one that i was uh you know i'm still excited about uh you know. Again, another one that I was, you know, I'm still excited about. You know, again, that's the one that we were doing the sideways here. And I was talking for the longest time about how this was looking like accumulation, how we would get a dip here. Four and a half, five dollars would be where you'd want to buy. And, you know, we did the rally back up. It looks like three and four may be done here. Looks like we've got a one, two.
Starting point is 00:31:02 So if we can break out higher here wave five locally here should have a target of around 25 and 18 cents um if we do if we do get a rejection at that area let's see here i have 27. yeah so yeah you could overextend up there a bit more yeah i mean just that area that area but that it's an area if i really look yeah um and then you know that would get you back here probably you know 11 or so if you can do 27 uh they'd probably get us back here closer to about 11 and a half almost um so yeah you know if we can get this breakout here that's kind of where i'm looking with that and then I said, you get a little bit of move up and then you get your pullback. And then once again, you get in that wave three.
Starting point is 00:31:50 But this is local here. You know, we've got this big one, two that we're actually in here. So I've got this big macro one, two. The consolidation itself is a bit strange i was looking at sort of as maybe it was forming a diamond but i don't think so yeah no it doesn't look like it looks like we just get this a bit of a deviation out and deviation back to the bottom kind of what bitcoin just did really you got the higher high and then the higher high and then the lower low same thing we got bitcoin here higher high higher high higher low or lower low i'm sorry and then
Starting point is 00:32:25 looking for that move out so it looks to me like a lot of these uh major uh you know and the ones have a lot of attention on them these alts are probably uh you know if bitcoin's rally if they're probably going to rally up with it it looks like they're all kind of doing the whole same fourth wave pullback thing right now yeah the reason i was looking at link like i think link you just traded above this this zone right here right such an obvious uh resistance you know yeah like above 18 bucks but like my eye does get drawn to this and like i said it's not really a thing but you know whenever i see that kind of high wick in the low wick after it i just start to think you know diamond but uh whatever i i doubt it'll actually happen you know, diamond, but, uh, whatever. I doubt it'll actually happen, you know, for anyone
Starting point is 00:33:05 doesn't matter until it happens. So it's literally unless the other side of it forms, but yeah, just, just kind of watching that. All right, man. I told Chris today that I had to end a little bit early. I got a personal commitment. I need to be somewhere in 25 minutes. So today's a bit shorter. You can follow Chris TX West Capital, of course, as always. And I got to run. So guys, thank you so much. I appreciate you guys showing up. Great guests as usual.
Starting point is 00:33:33 We will be back tomorrow. Thanks, Chris. Thank you, everybody. Peace, guys. Let's go.

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