The Wolf Of All Streets - Ethereum's Big Moment: Will It Soar Or Crash?

Starting point is 00:00:00 Today is one of the biggest days in crypto history. I know it sounds like hyperbole, but I certainly didn't think I would be sitting here on Thursday, May 23rd, talking about the impending approval of a series of Ethereum spot ETFs. Considering last week, it was all but dead. There was a less than 25% chance we were going to hear about these. The SEC wasn't even interacting with the filers. And yet here we are also with a comprehensive market structure bill passing conference. Biden seemingly making a U-turn. What is going on this week in crypto? What I want to dig into what all this means.

Starting point is 00:00:36 I bring on my favorite, Noel Abson. We're going to talk about this and more. And of course, I've got Dan Chart guys in the back half at 930 to dig in the charts, take out all of the noise and tell us what we should be looking at. Can't wait to get going, guys. Here we go. literally four hours before a flight, my friend called me, said, I'm going to a registered investment advisor conference in Vegas. My friend is throwing it. My other friend was going. He said, you're coming with us. We want to see what's happening on the ground with crypto. In the investment community, I said to my wife, I'm going to Vegas in three hours. I just booked a flight. I will meet you on the family vacation that I was supposed to drive our kids to on Friday. My wife is amazing. In case you guys were wondering, I'm leaving straight to consensus

Starting point is 00:01:49 from there. So I may go home sometime, I guess, in 2025. When I got here, they gave me a Dow 40,000 hat, which I think is amazing. I told him I'd wear it for his company trade PMR. That's the conference I'm at. My friend, Rob Baldwin, absolutely crushing it in the RIA space. And we're trying to find out ways to incorporate crypto more into these businesses to educate these people. And I wanted to be on the ground with a bunch of boomer RIAs when we got an Ethereum spot ETF, hopefully approved. Okay. That was a heck of a little intro there. You told me my hat's going to be a relic, Noelle. Hi, Scott. So great to be with you. And I can't wait to hear what you, I can't wait to hear more about what you find out at this event. I mean, talk about being in the room where the news gets out and the ability to get a sense of what RIAs are thinking about crypto after the BTC ETF

Starting point is 00:02:38 approvals and now possibly the ETH ones as well. Yeah. Your hat will be a relic. I would hang on to it. It'll be worth a lot of money soon because I bet you your kids will one day say, Dad, what was the DAO? Never heard of it. I think that's not unlikely, actually, because seemingly you don't really hear about it anymore. These are the guys who are excited about it.

Starting point is 00:03:00 The 50 and 60-year-old. It's not a measure of the market sentiment anymore like it used to be because now it's NVIDIA, NVIDIA, NVIDIA. Which is funny. I was just going to say, perfect segue to NVIDIA earnings, obviously, yesterday. They cannot set forecasts high enough that this company cannot beat. It's astonishing. It really is. And it just feeds into the whole mystery about why does the stock market keep on going up after the toughest rate hike cycle that we've seen this century? And what will it take to dampen the investor sentiments enough for the Fed to feel comfortable enough to bring rates down? So, yeah, it's perplexing. $28 billion is what they, I think, reported in second quarter earnings with an expectation of $26.8. And you may remember that at the last earnings, they

Starting point is 00:03:54 multiple X'd. And so they just keep raising them and they just keep beating them, like I said. So it's going to be interesting to see how this even affects the crypto market, I think. I actually woke up expecting to see all those AI tokens going crazy again, and that didn't really happen, which I think to me indicates that all eyes are really on Ethereum today, wouldn't you say? Yeah, for sure. We saw this also in Bitcoin. Bitcoin, after the major sweep in the FIT21 bill yesterday, didn't react. And this morning it was up slightly, but very, very muted. It does feel like this is ETH's week. Yeah. I mean, ETH has gone up, what,

Starting point is 00:04:31 30% in a week or something. I mean, it's hard to, my favorite stat, I don't know if you saw it, but we talked about it here yesterday, was that yesterday or the day it went up 22% in an individual day, it added an entire Solana market cap to its market cap. That puts things into perspective, doesn't it? Yeah, because people constantly are comparing them. And I think it's sort of laughable. They're just not the same asset to me. I mean, we could take a very, I think, quick look here at coin market cap at the market in general. I mean, Bitcoin's flat. Ethereum's still up 5% more. It was trading above 3,900. I mean, you know, we're under 20% to the all-time high of Ethereum.

Starting point is 00:05:13 And the sentiment around it has been absolutely in the dumps. Absolutely. And also, Scott, you know, cast your mind back a few years. This was normal, this kind of volatility up and down 10% in a day. Fine, that's crypto markets. But then we sort of lost that volatility after the 22 crash and the bear market of 23. And to see it start to creep back, it's kind of refreshing, kind of exciting, kind of disconcerting at the same time.

Starting point is 00:05:34 I think it's just amazing though, how fast in crypto specifically you can change. I mean, a 30% move erases a year of dismal sentiment and people thinking it's dead. One day. It takes one day to change everything. And we saw this with Bitcoin towards the beginning of the year. Suddenly it's outperforming Ethereum because it was Bitcoin's story. It was a macro story. It was the ETF story. It was all about Bitcoin. Now it's encouraging to see that start to change. And sure, there are some crypto narratives driving this shift, but also it is a natural part of any crypto cycle. Bitcoin starts any bull run and then the attention does start to move down

Starting point is 00:06:10 the cap table i just love that people thought the attention would never go to ethereum again people were publicly selling their ethereum literally last week like all the classic signals but let's move on to the spot etf ericchunis, who I had on the show yesterday, saying his best guess is 4 p.m. The Bitcoin spot ETF, I think, was approved or announced at 3.45 p.m., at least was really announced because you guys might remember it was a fake announcement the day before from the SEC when they were hacked. But we should get a real announcement. We're sitting at about a 75% chance, according to them, that this will happen.

Starting point is 00:06:44 So there is a still 25% or legitimate chance this would be rejected. So I guess we have a few scenarios. We have approval, price up or down, rejection, price up or down, right? And so I guess we can handicap those. It's a bit difficult. But what are you looking at generally here for how you'd expect this to play out? Well, first of all, I do have to say that I did not see this coming. I got this one wrong. Just a few days ago, I was saying, no, don't see it happening this year.

Starting point is 00:07:09 Having said months before that, yes, I did think we would. So I think I have whiplash, and I don't know what the treatment for that is. But it would be the rug pull of all SEC rug pulls if indeed they change their mind at the very last minute. All signs over the past couple of days have moved to, yes, there will be an approval. And the SEC's reputation is tarnished to say, at least, at best, to do this to not just the crypto investors, but also mainstream investors who've been waiting for this kind of opportunity. That would not exactly help their image in the run-up to an election. So I think we're going to get good news today, which again, is astonishing. You asked me

Starting point is 00:07:50 a week ago, I would have said no way. Yeah. And the reason that I so wanted to be on the ground in a situation like this is because we had months and months, almost a year of hype for Bitcoin spot ETFs. And you can go back to 2015 or 14 when they started being applications for Bitcoin spot ETFs. We had marketing campaigns. We had commercials. Before these were even approved, Grayscale was in the airports. People might remember. The entire world was talking about it. I would venture to guess, and I'll find out today that 90 plus percent of these people have never even heard of Ethereum. And now we're going to have a much steeper educational curve. So I don't think they're going to get massive inflows by any stretch. I think that they're going to flop,

Starting point is 00:08:34 you know, if it's relative to the Bitcoin spot ETF, and then we'll ramp up over time. But this is a huge curveball for these people who are just starting to get the first inkling of comfort with Bitcoin. Yeah, totally. As you pointed out, it's not so much the actual approval that is going to matter here, just the same as with the FIT21 vote yesterday. It's not so much the vote that matters. It's the signal on both counts, the signal that ETH is not a security, the signal that there is institutional acceptance of the fact that ETH is part a security, the signal that there is institutional acceptance of the fact that ETH is part of the crypto landscape, and the signal to companies building the markets that they can start to gingerly move forward again, having been pretty much in stasis for the past year.

Starting point is 00:09:14 So it's the signal also not just to US-based investors, but the signal this sends to global regulators, to regulators around the world that are starting to get their heads around their respective crypto frameworks as well. Many are quite far advanced, but many have not even started thinking about this yet, waiting for some signs from the largest financial market in the world. Well, we're starting to get those signs. That's what I'm most excited about, Scott. It's not so much ETFs for ETH, as you said. I don't think that's going to be a great product. It doesn't mean it's going to see zero inflows. It's just not a great product. But it's the signal that this sends. It's a very, very big shift.

Starting point is 00:09:48 It signals that it's not even just necessarily about these products. It's about the overall official attitude to crypto, which has been hostile and seems to be falling just a bit. That's the story. We're not talking about an Ethereumereum spot etf this week if this didn't become wildly political in the last two to three weeks and the biden administration it's not a tinfoil hat theory i don't think to say that they're scared that they're going to lose this vote it's very clear when trump made a wholesale uh you know reversal and uh started to

Starting point is 00:10:20 make this an issue i mean literally trump yesterday made a statement he's going to raise a crypto army when elizabeth warren biden literally talked about their anti-crypto army that they were raising. He's using their own weapons against them for better or for worse. And it's going to be meaningful in the election. I mean, this is a real, real voter base, I think, that they're scared of losing. And they just had to let this go. I don't even think last Friday, the SEC thought they'd be talking about approval this week. I really don't. Absolutely.

Starting point is 00:10:48 It's not even just been the past few weeks, Pivot. It's been the past few days and we're all still trying to digest exactly what happened. But what I don't get, and I'm in Europe, as you know, what I don't get is why the Biden administration thinks this would make them look stronger. It actually makes them look weaker if they are flip-flopping so fast based on purely political pressure, no conviction whatsoever. I

Starting point is 00:11:11 mean, we'll take it, not complaining, but I don't get the strategy. I think that at this point, they just want to not be outright anti-crypto. I don't think they can do enough to actually woo the audience, but they realize they might lose more people if they don't lighten the burden. But I mean, listen, as we said, I want to talk a little bit more about the actual mechanics here. So all of these companies that were filing were forced to do a complete fire sale, 24-hour change of their applications to even be able to file. So there's some people who say that the worst case scenario wouldn't be really a rejection today. It would be that they withdraw and wait a couple of weeks, right? So the expectation is still that it gets done. We

Starting point is 00:11:53 know the S-1s could take quite a while, but these companies literally had to rush to get this done. And the biggest thing I think was that they had to remove staking. So a lot of these companies had added staking, assuming we wouldn't get approved under this regime and wanted to be positioned to have staking. But even Bloomberg here saying this could be a major issue that erodes the ETF demand, but actually eventually increases spot Ethereum demand. These companies or institutions that might want to buy this ETF might say, wait, I can just buy Ethereum and go get a yield instead of buying an ETF and not getting that yield. So it's actually a pretty big deal. I think that these, at least at first, will lack staking. Especially when the education, when the marketing machines kick into gear and the education starts spreading about ETH. As you

Starting point is 00:12:39 said earlier, most people have never heard of it before. Now they have and wait, I can get 4.5% while still participating in the crypto ecosystem and benefiting from the technological upside, you know, sign me up. So yeah, I totally agree with that. I think this is good for the market overall, there will be demand for the ETF. I mean, it's not going to have zero interest. There are many institutions that can only invest in assets that list on regulated exchanges. And there are many mainstream investors that just don't want the hassle of custody and staking. They don't really care. And for them, this foregoing 4.5% yield is like a fee, which they'll pay. It's worth it. They still think the upside will compensate it. But yeah, the flows will be disappointing. The net impact to the industry as

Starting point is 00:13:21 a whole, I think we're underestimating. Who do you think buys these? Do you think it's at first, I should say, the initial inflows? Do you think that they come from companies that have already done their due diligence on the Bitcoin spot ETF and now want to diversify within crypto? Or do you think this is like maybe some crypto focused hedge funds or somebody that already gets it? I can't see us getting like the same kind of announcements of 900 institutions adding Bitcoin spot ETFs in the first quarter. Right now, I'm just curious who's going to buy these. I bought I bought a bunch of the Bitcoin spot ETFs on principle when it happened. I didn't sell my actual spot Bitcoin to do it, but I bought them.

Starting point is 00:13:57 Maybe I'll do that here. But I feel like there's less excitement about it in that regard. Maybe just also, you know, how, you know how to handle crypto assets. You don't actually need the ETF and you would be foregoing 4% yield, which, let's face it, doesn't make a lot of sense. But the institutions that can't do that, they'll probably be the main buyers, the mainstream type of institutions, the really heavily

Starting point is 00:14:17 regulated ones. Not the hedge funds. I was blown away to see so many hedge funds with positions in the Bitcoin spot ETF because for them, it's not funds with positions in the Bitcoin spot ETF, because for them, it's not a great product either. Bitcoin spot ETF has the strongest advantage of it only trades during New York trading hours, whereas Bitcoin trades 24-7, 365. And for a hedge fund to take the risk that there may be a significant move in Bitcoin over the weekend and you're stuck, I mean, that surprised me. I would expect there to be more hedge funds that hold Bitcoin spot than hold Bitcoin ETFs.

Starting point is 00:14:48 And the same with the ETH. Those that are interested in ETH, as you pointed out before, they're going to go straight to the asset itself. Do you think we see a sell the news on an approval? I mean, it's funny. People claim Bitcoin dumped on the approval. Right. But then we saw what happened, right? It went from 49-ish to, I think, just up 40, mostly because of GBTC outflows. People who are trapped in GBTC and just were exiting. There were a number of reasons for people to do that. But then we saw, obviously, it skyrockets new all-time highs ahead of the cycle, right? Ahead of the halving and such. We haven't been talking about it, but ETH is a relatively big product. It has over a billion dollars, maybe a couple billion dollars in it. I haven't looked.

Starting point is 00:15:29 That discount's closing as well. Billions of dollars of selling pressure into spot ETH is pretty significant. It is. And as far as I'm aware, we haven't seen the fees yet. It's going to come down to the fees. If you're taking a 4% hit on the loss of yield, then the fees are going to matter, especially if your grayscale sticks to its 2%. Again, unlikely. Who knows what they're going to do? So it's going to come down to that. We should find that information probably today, I think, or maybe over the course of the next few days. I'm not quite sure how that works. But the overall flows could end up being neutralish, as you're suggesting, people leaving ETH and into some of the cheaper ones. But on the whole, there are going to be some mainstream investors coming in that weren't there before.

Starting point is 00:16:12 But the main thing, Scott, that you mentioned before is the broadening awareness that crypto is not just about Bitcoin. Crypto is not just about digital gold. Crypto is about new technologies that are trying to do things that haven't been done before in finance. And you and I both know, because not only did this happen to us, but it's happened to everyone that we know in the industry. Once you start to find out what's going on here, you can't really stop thinking about it. You can't forget about it. It's really, really hard to dismiss the sector once you've done your homework. Yeah. Nassim Taleb is the only person I can remember who was a huge fan of the industry and then went the other way. Everybody else has been on one track, one directional track.

Starting point is 00:16:55 Did he do the homework in the first place? That's the question. I just love that he wrote, I think, the intro to the first Bitcoin standard, the foreword. They removed him and put in Michael Saylor when he became dismissive. It's pretty funny. So let's talk about, I think we don't know what will happen with price, but we all agree that what matters is that there's no downside to this being approved. It's great for the industry. We want to see it. Let's talk about the environment where it's happening because people may not have seen this. U.S. House approves crypto fit 21 bill with wave of Democratic support. I mean, 70 plus Democrats basically voted against party, although I hate that narrative because there's just plenty of people who make sensible votes still, even in our government, who support the things that they like. But this passed sweeping across the House.

Starting point is 00:17:41 And this a lot of people are confusing this with SAB 121. So first we had SAB 121, guys, that was the SEC sort of memo that was reversed that talked about custody. That passed the Senate. Chuck Schumer, 10 Democrats crossing the aisle, went to House and passed. This is the actual market structure bill that Patrick McHenry championed in his committee going to the floor of the Congress and now has to go to the Senate. And he's saying, don't count the Senate out at this point. And this was supposed to just be symbolically passing the House with a bunch of Republicans, and then it was going to die in the Senate. And now there's actual hope. And this says, you know, the CFTC will be the heavier regulator of crypto. It's giving Gary Gensler literally

Starting point is 00:18:24 agita, the guys having like stress, you know, panic attacks. You can see it in the cameras. It's unbelievable watching him cope with this. But it says what's going to be a security, what's going to be a commodity, who's going to regulate it, how it's going to be regulated, how the market. I mean, this is whether good or bad. This is the I guess the Mika or Micah of, you know, the European version in America. It's huge. It's absolutely massive.

Starting point is 00:18:46 A friend asked me at the beginning of this week, so what do you think about the SIT 21? And I said, well, you know, I haven't paid too much attention to it really because there's not a chance in hell that it's actually going to pass through the House. And lo and behold, not only did it pass, but with a wide sweep. I mean, what happened with the SAB 121, as he pointed out, was pretty epic. But that was 12 or 11. No, it was 12 Democrats

Starting point is 00:19:09 that voted with the Republicans on that. This was 71. That's one third of the total number of Democrats in the House. That is absolutely huge. That's a very strong signal. And that alone is enough to make the Senate pay closer attention to something

Starting point is 00:19:23 that they might just have dismissed. It might have died without this. Now it is going to take a closer look, given the signals, not just from this, but also the signals that we saw last week with the SAB 121 repeal. But it's a big deal. It's looking likely. It's looking like both sides are willing to work together on this. What happens next is that it goes to the Senate, but they have a lot of committee tweaks to do. And there are many things that could still derail it, but there seems to be a different kind of will. Yeah, and we had Gillibrand-Lummis, which kind of is a conflicting bill

Starting point is 00:19:55 that's coming out of the Senate, which would then have to go to the House. But yeah, to me, it's more just the signal of the thawing that you mentioned before. For those who don't remember, last week before this bill even hit the floor, the White House put out a memo saying they would veto this. Right. Yesterday, the White House put out a memo saying they don't agree with it in its current form, but it's going to the Senate. But they look forward to I don't have the exact quote,

Starting point is 00:20:17 but effectively, they look forward to creating a regime to regulate and legislate on digital assets to keep this onshore forever into the future. I mean, this is a wholesale change. We do not have an anti-crypto army anymore. And these people have pushed back against their superiors. And it's absolutely incredible. Listen, there's problems with this bill. It talks about decentralization. We don't know what that will mean. Who will define that? Will it be self-defined, will it be defined by the CFTC, but we're getting the broad strokes. It's a start. I mean, there's no such thing as a perfect bill, to be honest, except for the repeal of SAB 121. That was pretty close to being perfect, but it's complex and there's no way it's not going to be adjusted, probably significantly when it goes to the Senate committees.

Starting point is 00:21:07 But the signal last week from the Senate passing the repeal for S.A.B. one to one, that itself is huge. And this is in this came after Biden had said he would veto. This is knowing that the president is definitely going to squash this. And even so, there were Democrats who voted, you know, with the Republicans on this. So- Huge Democrats. Big name Democrats.

Starting point is 00:21:31 Sorry, yes, that. The signal that we got yesterday was massive compared to the signals last week. And that's what I think is going to push this through. Yeah. And so obviously Brian Armstrong saying that this can finally create clear crypto regulation. And then once again, I just got to show you SEC Chair Greg Angelich announces it.

Starting point is 00:21:50 Crypto market bill ahead of the House vote. He's crying. I mean, he's really, really upset. He thinks it's going to give the crypto industry the chance to scam everybody and it won't be regulated. But really, if you dig into his comments, he says the SEC won't have the power to protect consumers as if the CFTC is not a valid regulator. Really, he's just mad that a lot of this power is going to end up with the CFTC. Yeah. And all of this is even before taking into account the impact of the upcoming elections. There are 33 Senate seats up for reelection in November, and that could be a distracting factor, especially with summer vacations coming up as well. Timing could change the outcome depending on what happens between now and then. But even so,

Starting point is 00:22:32 it's a strong rebuke, not just to Jari Gensler, but also to the Warren faction that think that they can try and control the access to innovation. In the largest financial market in the world, people are saying that we want to be part of this change rather than just watch the rest of the world overtake us. I don't know. This just made me laugh in the context of what we're talking about. President Biden's campaign team is hiring a master of memes. Clearly, they realize that they have a young voter problem, right? I mean, it's funny, but they're literally hiring someone whose job is to like create memes

Starting point is 00:23:07 and interact with younger people on social media. Hey, it's like, you know, Steve Buscemi with the skateboard. Hey, all you kids or whatever the meme. I mean, it's really, I think this is part of it though. They realize they're going to lose this young vote. They're going to lose the crypto vote.

Starting point is 00:23:22 All at once, these things, it's like they just woke up a few months away from the election and realized how much trouble they were in on these issues. Have you seen Biden's TikTok? No. You don't want to. You really don't want to. It's up there with the TikToks from Fed Chair Powell. He's like, just don't, just don't. Yeah, they're going to be banning TikTok probably anyways. So I guess I will never have to watch Biden TikTok. Or TikTok will just become presidential TikToks when regulated in the United States.

Starting point is 00:23:53 Okay, we've got like five minutes left. Can you give us the quick, I guess, your macro outlook? I know that's a big ask with only a few minutes left, but it's still important to realize that all of this is happening in context of what's happening in the rest of the world. That's exactly it. We have massive crypto narratives now because of the political shift in the largest financial market in the world. But we have still this constant drumbeat of fiscal stimulus happening everywhere around the world. We need military buildup. There's slowdowns coming, which means social spending is going to be going through the roof. And given the number of elections this year, in a way, spending is going

Starting point is 00:24:28 to be coming down in all of the major economies. So we have the fiscal stimulus that is going to keep the money printing machines going, which means currencies are going to race to the bottom. And this is where hard assets start to shine. And obviously, I'm referring to this real estate, there's gold, there's Bitcoin. I don't know if you noticed the other day, though, Scott, Zimbabwe is now encouraging its miners to mine more gold because they needed to support their new currency, which adds not just the price risk to the supply of gold, when the price is higher, more mining technologies become profitable. There's also political risk now to the supply of gold, which reminds us that there is actually only one asset that does have a truly hard cap on its supply. And in the uncertain world that we're heading into,

Starting point is 00:25:11 with currencies becoming increasingly volatile, as well as lesser in value relative to hard assets, this is going to matter more and more to people, especially as they start to understand the value proposition here. What's the timeline on that? It's already happening. It's already happening. And whatever happens in the US in November, the spending is not going to slow down. Interest rates are probably not going to be coming down as fast as the market is expecting. I'm not expecting any hikes as we talked about before. I'm expecting cuts to be pushed back, though. And that is going to further exacerbate or aggravate the pain felt in the deficit with interest spending actually surpassing military spending at a time when arguably military spending needs to be increased a lot more.

Starting point is 00:25:59 I've never understood at any point in this cycle, the predictive markets betting so heavily on these rate cuts. I did a lot of things wrong, but I've just keep saying, I don't understand why they cut. And now I think even Solomon, the Goldman CEO said expects no cuts this year, this year. And I'm hearing more and more chatter about serious economists expecting hikes. Again, I'm not there. I'm not there yet by any means, but to have smart people take a look at the landscape and say, we need to hike again. And if you just think about the pain that that will inflict on the treasury market. It will inflict insane pain on the treasury market. And that could be the catalyst that

Starting point is 00:26:38 finally really rolls real estate over. Maybe, and what will bring rates down, but do we really want to be celebrating rates coming down in response to a crisis? Yeah, well, exactly. Then we break something, and then they pivot, and then the market crashes, which is what we tend to see. Any other thoughts before I let you go, Noelle? It's always so great to talk to you again. Looking forward to hear what you pick up at this event today. Yeah, I'll drop you a line. Maybe I'll get some good insight. Thank you so much, guys. Please follow Noelle, Noelle in Madrid, as you can see there right underneath her picture. Always love having you. Great insight. And I'm jealous that I saw you and Misha, my producer, partying in Madrid. He sent me a picture. I couldn't believe it.

Starting point is 00:27:18 It was a lot of fun. We got to get you out here soon. I would love to do that. Thank you, Noel. Awesome. Really? Yeah. So yeah, Vegas. I managed to sleep at least two hours last night. I had to get it.

Starting point is 00:27:32 See, it's three hours earlier here. The thing I didn't really consider was that I was going to have to wake up at four to write my newsletter when I was playing craps at one. And then my flight tomorrow morning is at 430. So I guess I would just won't sleep this week at all. So guys, before I move on, obviously to to dan we're going to talk about our sponsor oh they're way over there in the corner now dega i've been telling you guys about them for a couple weeks just the really really quick obviously design deploy and monetize games in minutes your story your world i've actually been dying to uh i got the uh full obviously run through before they came

Starting point is 00:28:04 on as a sponsor but i've been dying to do this myself but full obviously run through before they came on as a sponsor, but I've been dying to do this myself. But for those who haven't been watching before, this basically abstracts away all the complexity of Web3 and building and gaming and understanding coding. This basically allows anyone with simple UX and UI to participate in Web3, to create games, to NFTs, all of these things. So, so so cool uh highly recommend that you check that out if you've been interested but don't want to go through the 10-year degree to figure out how to actually do this uh in a compliant safe manner where you don't uh completely blow it so i highly recommend write down in the comments that you check them out and now chart Chart guys, bull, bull, bull, bull, bull, bull.

Starting point is 00:28:46 Yeah. I mean, that's what we were talking about last week and not a whole lot has changed. NBDA just adding on top of it. And Bitcoin's got only one resistant zone left and it's the all-time high, pretty much 72 to 74 is a little zone. And we're topping out just underneath it, but there's no red flags at the moment. We have a daily uptrend. And really, it's just a question where worst case scenario for the bulls, we trade sideways through a lot of June. And you know, that's now the information that we're looking for the next few days. Is that what is going to shape up? Yeah, I mean, for me, we were trading obviously, have been trading in a range this entire time, right, since we hit that all time high effectively. And now we're just trading in the range this entire time, right? Since we hit that all-time high effectively.

Starting point is 00:29:25 And now we're just trading in the top half instead of the bottom half. I've got a squishy chart because I'm on my laptop. But, you know, just trading in the top half instead of the bottom half, which to me is good. Maybe you catch a bid at 67 at the bottom of that kind of at support. You'll probably go 74, 67, somewhere in there. And I still think it's September before anything huge happens. But I would love to be proven wrong. Yeah. As you mentioned, 67 previous

Starting point is 00:29:48 resistance on the way up. We struggled there a bunch. Bulls want to hold that on a pullback. And yeah, it's just for me, it's watching the daily uptrend. If we lose it, then probabilities of a sideways June will increase a good bit. And there's a bunch of altcoins, Sol, and a bunch of them that have that same potential sideways setup. Are you trading Ethereum around this today? I actually, I traded ETH in my stock account on the initial move. And that was just because it's OTC, you don't have pre-market. And so you know on the back of that headline that anybody that wants in has to buy right after the open.

Starting point is 00:30:25 And so trading on the OTC has a lack of liquidity. And when people want to race for the exit, it's a very bad thing. But when people want to race through the door, that lack of liquidity is a very good thing. So I was playing around with that. But for me, it's still the bigger picture, this ETH BTC chart, which this is a great candle, but also look back here, and we have to confirm the trend change once we top out. And so it needs to be, in my opinion, this is the lead up to the ETF. And then maybe if we get the flows being surprisingly good inflows, then maybe we confirm that trend. But we haven't confirmed a weekly uptrend on this chart. Like a year and a half. This is at major resistance, right? And it's hilarious. So now you'll get the news right at key resistance. And I guess that could determine whether it's

Starting point is 00:31:15 just another rejection on these huge candles, as you said, or whether we can actually break it. But it's a humongous move that once again, if you really look at it from that perspective, hasn't broken out yet. Yeah. Yeah. It's going to take, because this is the weekly chart, it's going to take potentially a month to two months to play out, but I've just got to see. And I was so close to being ready to go bullish here. Like, oh, are we going to get it? Nope, we reject. And we dropped to lower lows. So just confirm that trend. Whenever I look at a chart, I want to see on a long-term timeframe where I can identify this has not happened in this amount of time, a significant amount of time so that we know that when it happens, okay, something is significantly changing

Starting point is 00:31:55 here. And for me, it's the weekly trend on ETH BTC. It has to confirm for me to say, all right, longer term, it's go time for ETH bulls. It's been a hard one to champion over the last year, year and a half, because every big move gets you excited and then it continues down. So we can have PTSD and anticipate that that can happen again. So what else are you looking at in context? I've got to imagine that today, all eyes are somewhat on ETH. But to me, ETH moving up, if it does break out, is way more bullish for the altcoin market generally than anything else we've sort of seen in this cycle. Because Solana goes up, but it stays in the Solana ecosystem. You get all these memes going crazy. That doesn't really trickle down. But historically, at least when ETH really catches a bid, there's so much more money just

Starting point is 00:32:40 generally in the altcoin ecosystem sloshing around. Yeah. And I'm watching the dominance chart. And again, this is just one little piece of the puzzle, but it is a potential rising wedge. And we did just test the lowest levels of the last six weeks or so. So we could potentially confirm the first weekly downtrend here in a long time. And again, if you're an altcoin bull, you want to see Bitcoin remain sideways or strong and have dominance dumping. And so we are on the cusp of potentially seeing a longer term shift on this dominance chart, which would be a good sign for the altcoin bull. So definitely paying a bit extra attention to the altcoin space now that we have this headline.

Starting point is 00:33:18 And as you mentioned, just what you were talking about, I'm very curious, just from an observation, I'm not going to be actively aggressively trading this ETF headline reaction, but I'm very curious to see how it plays out just because with Bitcoin, as you mentioned, we had the lead up and we had the somewhat pricing at the headline, whereas here it's just wham in your face out of nowhere. And I love when markets get really surprised and have things wrong in terms of what they've been pricing in and then watching the sc terms of what they've been pricing in, and then watching the scramble of capital as the market adjusts to saying, oh, we were wrong. We've got some major shifting to do. And that's what's obviously underway with ETH right now over the

Starting point is 00:33:54 last few days. Yeah. Not only that, because of this scramble, we're getting the 19B4s likely approved, but the S1s haven't even been dealt with at all. So we may, unlike the Bitcoin spot ETF, we could have a week, two week, month, day, nobody knows, but there could be a major lag between the approval and the trading, which adds a completely new element to this that wasn't there with the Bitcoin ETFs. Yeah. And another analogy for me hearing you guys talk about the election is just watching the Biden campaign scramble and And they want this younger vote. That's what they're doing with cannabis. They're trying to change cannabis with schedule three, like, okay, we'll do something, but we don't want to do a whole lot. And now they're trying to do that

Starting point is 00:34:34 with crypto as well. So it's interesting. They're both in the same vein of targeting the younger demographic and just watching them try and scramble a bit here as we get towards summer. And then of course, the fall is when things are going to get real interesting. But it's just who needs a sitcom or some TV when you got real life to watch? Are you going to apply for Biden's job as the lord of memes? I'm not the meme creator, no, but that's so funny. You can talk to the younger generation. So what else do you got?

Starting point is 00:35:07 I love that dominant start. I want to see that go to Hades. I want to see Bitcoin just chill between 67 and 74 and see that thing fall off a cliff. It would be so much fun around here. That would be a good thing. We were watching this coin falling wedge from last week, grabbed an entry when this little inside bar here broke bull. So I've got a coin swing on now at this point from, you know, 208 average or something. And just keeping an eye

Starting point is 00:35:32 on it. You know, today we're pulling back here. Bitcoin's dropping a bit. So I'm not sold that this is going to be the move to head back to recent highs, but positioned comfortably enough. And we'll see how it shakes out from here. But the miners still a little bit weak. I drew this rising wedge before we opened here and MARA is potentially breaking bear. If you're a bull, you never want to see resistance break straight into a significant pullback, break straight into a significant pullback. It's just the recipe of a potential rising wedge. And so interesting to see that these crypto miners are seeing a significant amount of weakness in our first eight minutes of trading this morning. Yeah. Well, I saw that there was a little pullback on Bitcoin too. I think it's

Starting point is 00:36:15 at now just sub 69. Yeah, it's a decent little weakness. Decent drop the last hour here. Yeah. One more thing that I'm watching is the solar sector. It got my attention yesterday just because I haven't, you know, I gave up on the solar sector many months ago. This is the weekly chart. So it's doing nothing for years. And so trying to put in a longer term bottom and it had this massive volume big day. And so that's enough for me to just say, okay, start paying attention again. And FSLR is the leader in the space there. And it rocketed up to all-time highs. So we know we love our blue sky breakouts, but 20% move in two days.

Starting point is 00:36:51 And so I'll just be watching for back burner trades, which is first hourly oversold conditions coming from all-time highs usually has a good probability of a solid bounce. And so essentially, this is just, hey, here's a bunch of volume and price action. Start paying attention to the longer term charts in solar, at least for now. this is the free dump, sell the news dump, sell before the news dump that's happening or what's going on. But I guess the market just opened. Yeah. And what I'm wondering is, because this is so unexpected, you could say these hedge funds or even boomers, whoever is saying, I'm going to allocate this percentage of my capital to crypto exposure. And that goes in the Bitcoin ETF. Well, now do you diversify? Do you sell some of your Bitcoin ETF to put it into an ETH ETF? Do you increase your allocation? So because it's so

Starting point is 00:37:57 unexpected, I don't think there was planning of, all right, I'll put my 2% in Bitcoin ETF and I'll save 2% for the ETH ETF. So that's a bit of a scramble as well to see how that's going to shake out. Awesome. Anything else you got you're looking at there? I'm good to go with that. I always love it, man. Thank you so much for the insight, guys. Of course, follow chart guys on Twitter, X, YouTube, everything. You can see Dan celebrate the weed sector, smoking weeds. It's fun.

Starting point is 00:38:26 Have a great time in Vegas, Scott. I've only got 24 hours and now I got to go put on a suit. So we'll see what happens. But yeah, that's all I got. All right, man. Thank you so much, guys. We will see you. I'll be back. I'm actually going to still do March at Mavericks in a few hours. So 3 p.m. Eastern Standard Time. It'll be noon my time. I'll be back with Gareth and Mike to talk about everything. Maybe we'll be getting more clarity at that time, too. So that's why I want to make sure I did that. All right, again, thank you, guys. See you soon. Bye.

The Wolf Of All Streets - Ethereum's Big Moment: Will It Soar Or Crash?

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