The Wolf Of All Streets - Extreme Fear! Crypto Dumps while Metals Crash! #CryptoTownHall

Episode Date: January 30, 2026

In this episode, the panel analyzes sharp volatility in metals, crypto, and markets following the Kevin Warsh Fed nomination, extreme crypto fear, and recent parabolic spikes in silver and gold. They debate potential peaks (silver possibly reverting to ~$50), Bitcoin's bearish setup and risk-asset correlation, decoupling from precious metals, reflation signals, energy/commodity trends, Trump-era deregulation for power and industry, stablecoin/tokenization growth, and Bitcoin's long-term thesis amid short-term pain.

Well, good morning, everyone. Scott's not here today, so you have to listen to me. So for that, I apologize. But we have interesting stuff to talk about. We have a new Federal Reserve nominee. We have metal markets doing, and we'll let Mike McGlone start first doing what he said would happen and what is always happens in these things, which is enormous volatility. And we see fear. What was it this morning? I saw it at Crypto-Greed and Fear is Extreme Fear at 16. So we're getting lots of panic. And panic is when traders make the most money. So let's get into it.

Anybody, oh, yeah, yeah, sorry. They want me to read something, but I don't have it. Yeah, they're going to, hold on a second. We have technical difficulties. By the way, can people hear me because I don't see any reactions and I can't tell being this. Okay, cool. So we have an Austin sponsor.

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monopoly and not another corporate monopoly, join us at 0g.aI. Okay, let's get into it. Mike, I teed you up. You behind the mic there or not? I am, Dave, and yes, thank you for teeing me up. I think we have a quote from my colleague, Jonathan Levin, just headlined. Trump demanded a Fed dove, but chose a hawk. So far the market seems pretty satisfied, satisfied with Mr. Warsh as a next Fed Governor, pricing in the potential that he might be a little more hawkish.

But the bottom line for me is we have potentially, you mentioned silver and metals. I think we potentially put that high in in silver. 121.65 was high in the Bloomberg Terminal, which has similarly in cleans for gold. The difference I look at in terms of markets is this is all in the context of we've had a very mercurial present and we have 180-day volatility and S-FB-500 running at 11% if we can. The year there, it'll be the lowest since 2017. So my base case is volatile. We'll pick up. We will get, and that's where I see at some point we shouldn't even be considering buying risk assets until volatility gives you a decent bid and a decent discount in price. I look at crypto's is

they're a bare market and you're supposed to be acting accordingly selling rents. Now, one thing I've noticed is tethered through that key support at 1.82. I'm not tether. I'm the XRP. As far as levels in Bitcoin, we're still, people, you know, still holding near 80,000. But it's broken blue. It's 100-week movement average. It's never done this with volatility solo.

So probably going to just go down to the next level. I still use 100,000 as the key resistance. I don't think we're going to get near there. But I've lined them all up. Now, Dave, I see even silver, I think, before you, might test very nimble shorts because it's a bull market. Now, I think it's potentially a peak, peaking bull market. We have good resistance to work out. Anything work against anything near 120. It's kind of silly. And normal reversion is back towards 50. We might see that this year. I'll be

publishing that on that end Tuesday. I still have initially in the same headline as just the normal reversion in Bitcoin is towards 50,000. And the bottom line for me is we've reached good resistance and things like natural gas around five and the U.S. T bond around five. in copper around six, we're there now. And Bitcoin, I mentioned 100,000. There's so many markets have done this in the first month of the year. To me, they're worth testing shorts. And the bottom line, I say that from a prudent standpoint,

because they're all dependent, I think, on one thing. To get above those levels that I've mentioned already, you have to basically have volatility stay real low and it has to be 500 to stay above 7,000. Now, it might print there again, but we know how these round numbers work. It's the first month of the year. And so I'm sticking with my game plan for this year as Volxili Real Rise.

It's a trader's environment. We've got some great opportunities so far. And I'll end with one other additional one is last year's mean, meaning, and mode in crude oil was around 65. And right now it's around 65. It's a bare market. Everything's training lower. And you don't sell in the hole in the bare market. You wait for bouts.

So is this the peak? We'll see. We have potential things going on this weekend with Iran. But 65 to me is the first level. is a prudent trader. You look at reset shorts. And I just see it. They're all lined up. And for all these levels to stay above these levels, particularly silver above 100, Bitcoin above maybe 90 now, and copper above six, the stock market has to go up. And to me, that's where at that stage. So I'm sticking with that. Well, we all know I disagree. I think that when you value it in dollars,

it's different. You know, like, I know there's one other person on this panel who looks at this stuff, but he didn't raise his hand, and Aladio did, so go for it. Hey, David, how are you doing? You know, I always respect your knowledge of both traditional markets and crypto. You're one of the few people that understands both. So that's why you and I have intersections. Look, we have seen the complete breakdown of a correlation that a lot of people thought existed three years between silver, gold, and Bitcoin.

It's broken. I mean, if it hasn't broken, for goodness sake, it's obvious. I actually think the correlation that we have from risk, assets and Bitcoin are spot on when it comes to traditional assets, when you look at the breakdown that took place after the October 12th, the leveraging breakdown. That's what everything started to falter. And if you look at the S&P return, I believe it is flat going back to October. So what we have seen are rotations from a bifurcated market that has existed for much longer

than people realized since the baton went from shale oil in 2016 to six. semis and Nvidia and the revolution that came through gaming, through Bitcoin, and now through AI. It has been an amazing transformation. I do believe we are range bound in Bitcoin. And we will be, as we get closer into the approval of Kevin Warsh, it will get better. Kevin Warsh isn't what I would call a bull of crypto or a bear. he's going to find ways to incorporate it with Bessent, who I think, you know, they're friends.

They work together at the George Soros Fund. They were currency experts. They caught both of those trades when the yen broke down, I believe, in the early part of, you know, in the, I don't know, 2010-11 range. And then the same thing. They're undeniably, the point, it is undeniable. And your point, I just want everyone to understand, is Aladio says a lot of things. Bessent and Warsh are clearly aligned and clearly understand that we need to do multiple things to grow out of the debt. Yes, there is a need to inflate the debt away at the same time as we need nominal and real GDP.

No, we need real GDP. That's what we need, buddy. We need real. Of course, we need real GDP, of course. But the point is they understand Grow Baby Grow. And Grow Baby Grow is not the same thing as financially. as financialized. And that is different. And both of them understand Bitcoin's role. And both of them have said things similar to things that Scott and I have said, which is that there's a lot of

crap in crypto, but a lot of really good things in crypto. And so, you know, looking for broad-based, you know, bullshit is not the same thing as understanding, you know, I did just a quick thing, just to put this in perspective. Let me find the right tab. Hold on. So Kevin Ward said things that are interesting. He calls Bitcoin an important asset that doesn't make me nervous. But he said something that is one of my favorite. He said it's not a substitute for the dollar, but can serve as a very good policeman for policy. It's something that I've said many, many times,

meaning, you know, as a replacement for what gold did do, and he calls it the new gold for people under 40. And that is hugely important. So, you know, if you get on binaries and talk about hawk, dove, and you miss the nuance of what's happening, people forget, the Federal Reserve is a hugely important regulator. I wish Caitlin Long could join us because she could wax it. They're too powerful, Dave.

They're too powerful. And he's also been critical of that, which is another really interesting phenomena here. So, I mean, I think there's a lot to talk about. Anyway, I interrupt you a lot if you have any more to say. No, no. And look, we're going to get a bottom. And we're going to get a bottom probably two to three months before we see the first rate cut. There you go.

So three to four months before the first rate cut, which could be June or July. I don't know if it may not be June. Again, I haven't looking, I'm not looking at the FOMC calendar. So as you want to all risk as want liquidity, I do believe that that breakage and correlation between gold and silver, gold has more industrial applications, but the gold boom has a myriad of reasons. And it is also partly because of the uncertainty of the changing of the world order that is taking place, where we're becoming a more China-indocentric, world as opposed to a European-centric world of the previous century. And that has some repercussions. And gold is an insurance policy for uncertainty. And that's where it departs from crypto. But I see a bottom in crypto, specifically the champion of crypto, which is what I look at,

the top one, maybe two to three months before we get our first break cut. And it's going to be a meteoric rise. But I don't know if we're going to break below 75 or not. I don't think we are. I think we're going to hold 75. Okay. Can you guys still hear me? I can't tell. But Gary, I think you were next. Yeah, I wanted to, I can hear you. I wanted to bring up and get an opinion from people here. You know, there's a number of players out there that are putting a correlation between the ratio or historical ratio of crude oil related to how the dollar responds. and also they're attempting to correlate silver ratios with crude, which reportedly have been two to three times.

So silver oil has been priced at two to three times. Silver suggesting that at a $90 print on silver, you know, we need to be at $300 crude oil. Now, I don't see how any of that makes any sense. I don't know if Honest is in the room, but I don't see these crazy predictions for $150 to $450 crude oil. It would suggest to me if that correlation is going to hold, silver has to get just bashed down back to the 30 to 40 range. Because this economy cannot tolerate $75 to $100 crude oil. It probably could tolerate it, but it's unnecessary.

there's plenty of it all over the place. There is such a huge difference. I mean, oh my God. I mean, I can't, I would love honest to be honest, to be saying that because I've never heard anything that makes less sense. I mean, Silver, we're in a massive structural deficit. And the battery technology that has,

that is being invented now is no different in terms of how important it's going to be to what Cisco did for routers. I mean, routers used to be literally, 20 times more expensive for, you know, and Cisco then became, you know, came in, invented cheap, fast, you know, routers, which is powered an enormous, enormous change in the way computations and data centers, everything were structured, and it quickly gained market share. If Samsung's battery technology is half as good as they're talking about because of using 32 ounces of silver in one electric car, you could do the math. And right now we have 20,000 tons a year of,

demand for silver industrially, and that leaves us at a fairly significant deficit. The projection is if you got to even 50% penetration just in EVs, and that doesn't count what that technology can do in terms of sustainables and terms of solar walls and power and houses, there's so many other applications, you're talking about 60,000, you know, tons, which is more effectively going from 20,000 to 80,000 in demand. I mean, that and mining capacity in silver is really hard to bring. online, whereas you are correct. Oil capacity is really easy to bring online.

So if you talk about long-term trends, that decoupling is guaranteed. Now, in the short run, yeah, you know, look, short-run volatility is baked in the cake. That's absolutely true. I mean, nothing of what I'm talking about has anything to do with what the price will be in the next month. But if you're going to talk about $300 oil, when our technology for extracting oil has gotten so much better, I think that's nuts. I mean, I think that's what you're saying, right?

Well, it's not what I'm saying. I love to hear from McGlone, but it's not what I'm saying. It's what other people are, you know, they're going back 90 years. And there's a historical trend. I think the point I was, I think all of these trends are breaking apart. I mean, they're falling apart. Like, I don't think you can look back at history and say, oh, these spreads, these ratios between commodities and money and currencies are going to all stay consistent when we're having mass. massive technological changes.

Like we're just going to have to, I think we're going to have to get used to a very different world. And maybe the metrics that we've been measuring things by are just wrong. Or they're maybe not wrong. They've been right up to this point, but they're not going to, you know, maintain their linkage going forward. That's what I would like to hear because I don't see how $100 oil is helpful to this marketplace. But I also appreciate, hey, the dollar is being degraded. We directly attacked you.

So go ahead and then Amateo, Andre, and Mark, and then a lot of... I think it's appropriate to mention that this week, silver reached the highest level ever versus oil and versus copper. Now, in terms of commodities, when people say electrification and the demand for electricity, the first place I go to is copper and silver. Now, we've had those rallies. Those are priced in. They're extreme. They're probably going to pull back.

Everything you say and read about deficits is over as of now. That's shifted. When you have a parabolic rally, you know, at three to four standard deviations, that shifts. And that's how history guides. So one thing people are doing is missing, when they make silly statements about that, missing the difference between enumerating or dominant. And I'm there. It's just an example of how silly expensive silver is. So I state the case. I think silver is going to go back to 50 this year, still be expensive. That might be a low. And the long term high that we put in yesterday was it Wednesday at 121.65 might last for a decade. The problem is I'm going to call my mother. and to ask when she's going to start, you know, cash it in that candelabra. She used to have to lease polish when I was a kid. It's just the key thing to remember. And Gary, you're right. There's a major changes going on in markets and commodities.

And that's where I point out is stay away from any type of overweight positions and look to be a responsive trader. And there's nowhere near a bottom, I think, in most recesses. Cryptra's are just leading the way. But in terms of commodities, don't worry about Correll going up. Now, number one thing to remember about energy prices is we have an election in November. We have a president that there's going to be a sweep against him if it were right now. If inflation doesn't go down, energy prices don't go down, and bond yields don't go down by the time we get to November, which includes natural gas and crude oil, it's going to, you know, incumbents are going to get crushed.

They will go down because they have a way to make them go down. So I see. That's why I mentioned crude oil short around 65, just to test it. Even natural gas, that these contracts are on five. It's about the same as the bond yield. It's probably unlikely to do that. Mike, this, Nat gas move is all about this. polar fucking storm that was going to come through here and drop three inches of ice and it didn't happen that's going to come and go now i like gas will be back to four bucks in a month

but it's at four bucks now it was three 80 yesterday that's because we got rid of that fed contract we're in the march contract now but you're exactly right so what's think about what humans do within the next six months we will be bring on as much supply as we ever have particularly with a little more motive notice motion for the current government from prices particularly and And we'll be so set up for a third colder than normal winter amidst global warming. And if we as humans fail, that's our fault. So natural gas always goes down after it goes up. And when people tell me it's different this time, at five, I say, good luck.

It just, you know, there's a lot of people in the graveyard who bought five and ended up getting out at two. Yeah, I think that's right. And you and I can argue about all the other stuff on Monday. Since we've got a bunch of hands up, I'm going to reach. I think I have Amatoo is the order, then Andre, then Mark, then back to Aladio. So Amatea, you there? Hey, yeah, I'm here. Gary, I don't really have an answer for your oil question, but that just seems like a very gross

estimation, overestimation when it comes to the amount of oil reserves that we have, even the fact that we've now co-opted Venezuelan oil reserves. I just don't see that. But I mean, I think we've been talking about gold and silver, like, so. consistently and I think maybe we finally put it into the top here. I made a post the other day that you could sell all the gold in the world every single ounce at 5,300 bucks, which is not even there now, and still not pay off the U.S. national debt. I mean, I just think that that's just such a remarkable fact. I can't get over the fact that that's true to just show the sheer

size and scope of the U.S. national debt. And every time we've seen these big market moves, we keep seeing volatility increase. Even though that the stock market keeps like tap in all-time highs, even though many of these big stocks keep touching all-time highs, I just keep seeing increased volatility. And as this volatility increases, metals have been spiking and risk is coming down. The risk appetite seems to be coming down. I think that Bitcoin, as usual, is sort of a canary in the coal mine here. And so when I look at this new Fed share coming in with strong currency background, I can't help but think there's going to be a desire to backstop this entire trend of dollar debasement.

I don't think that he's, you know, of course it's growth. But if you look at the debt and you look at the whole world spiking metal, and now hoarding them, making it illegal to leave countries with them. I mean, they're coming for your metal, right? We obviously know that's the value prop of Bitcoin, which will be realized over time. But you look at all this and you go, okay, how long are they going to let the dollar debasement trade kind of take off? And so I think that eventually we get a desire to backstop that here and try to figure out what to do with the debt. but in the meantime of all of that stuff

happening there is going to continue to be risk off and I think that we'll see this leading up to it and I just don't see that reversing in the short term Andre Hey happy Friday guys I tend to disagree

but I'll lay out my rationale so first to your point gear I think there is like an inverse correlation between like things like the dollar and metals, right? If you look at like the CRB Metals index and for instance, like a broad, effective exchange rate of the US dollar, right, including emerging market currencies and so on, there's like an inverse correlation. And you saw it during like the 1990s, late 1990s when like metals prices were depressed, right? But the dollar was like extremely high, right? And you saw like the opposite picture, like the commodity super cycle, right, 2010, right, where the dollar was very, like, depressed, but like metal prices, commodity price in general were very high.

And what I'm seeing right now, I think my thesis right now is we're actually looking at the biggest reflation since 2020, 2021, like since five years, right? with very similar implications for Bitcoin. That's why I actually put a post out yesterday. I think Bitcoiners should actually cheer this kind of precious metals, really. And it's only not visible in metals. It started in precious metals. Also in like some major industrial metal, like copper, right?

But it has moved on to like CRB around industrial, so industrial commodities. And also, it's now moving into energy, right? He saw the spike in the guess maybe like Winterstorm related or not, like, I mean, but it makes sense. And now you also see like break-even rates picking up. So market-based inflation expectations are picking up. And connecting the dots to Bitcoin, what is what it means for Bitcoin. I mean, many, many observers, many analysts, they've noted that Bitcoin is this kind of macro asset, right? And what we've seen over the past, essentially,

and a half for years. It's like the ISM manufacturing index, right? So the business cycle has moves more or less sideways. Like the ISM manufacturing index was in contraction for like three and a half years, right? And this kind of reflation in metals, metal prices and so on is actually implying like a significant reacceleration in manufacturing activity and so on. And it's actually coming from China because their PMIs are picking up. They're reflating the economy. Right. And so my thesis is we'll see a kind of rotation from gold sole slash safe haven assets from precious metals to Bitcoin. Once you see a return risk appetite, right? And we probably see this kind of return and risk on. Yeah, probably once the ISM manufacturing index starts to reaccelerate, and yeah, I think that could be

one of the key catalysts going forward. Mark. Thank you, Dave. So, Andre, what was your last point? one, it fell off on my end. So, I mean, I think we'll see a rotation once you see a return risk appetite because the Bitcoin gold relative performance tends to cycle with global risk appetite. So if you have like a risk on like Bitcoin tends to overform gold and vice versa. And I think we're about to see this. It's not too far away. I think it's max two months. I think it will happen this quarter essentially that will see a return risk appetite. Yeah. So I'm going to start off with an analogy. And if you guys have heard it, please put a pin in me and go to someone else. And then I'm going to go into specifically the equity market, which draws across a lot of what you guys are saying. The first one is as far as Bitcoin is concerned, hugely disappointing. I want to throw up in a corner. You know, everything like what Gary's been saying about, you know, it can go lower. I'm not selling, but fuck it. It's going to absolutely disappointing. Now, all that being said,

you realize that the whole world is saying the same thing, and that's exactly what happens at the bottoms, right? Yeah. So all that being said, I go back to certain frameworks, and once when my wife was

pregnant with our second, she was running these nursing groups called the Latry League, and it's about helping new mother's nurse. And she, unfortunately, had a meeting, but was upstairs with our son or maybe she was giving birth to another one. I don't know. We've had too many kids.

And I was stuck with the meeting. She's like, Mark, you've heard enough. You run it. So yeah, you just figure that out. So a woman says, well, you know, I don't know if my baby is well because I can't tell how many ounces of milk and all this because everyone says it's a bottle. And the answer to that was, the only one answer I knew, so I'm glad she asked it, was that it does your baby have seven wet diapers.

If your baby has seven wet diapers a day, it's getting enough milk. And right now, that's my answer to Bitcoin. Is there debasement? Is there a good hash rate? Are the miners still operable? Is the thesis still intact? We have seven wet diapers as far as the Bitcoin thesis is concerned. So that's the only thing that lets my head hit the pillow,

because this is an awful market to watch the gap between, precious metals when you're having the perfect thesis layout and you're down on a three-month, one-year, 18-month basis. So that's the broad market. On the equity side, the rotation into small caps, I don't know if we can call this a risk of market when the vacuum of these 50 to 150 billion dollars companies like Sandusk, Western Digital, you know, even deer and caterpillar. with the infrastructure trade.

I mean, you know, U.S.-based revenue. That's, it can't last long because once they get to a certain level, people back off and they can't carry the whole market higher. But I wouldn't call this a risk-off market. I would absolutely call it a rotation. It's fiscally dominant and because of the policies from one big, beautiful bill. This space was downloaded via spacesdown.com. Visit to download your spaces today.

And the tax, it's a huge opportunity going on. And it speaks to the data miners, which are, you know, shifting from Bitcoin to data. It's a huge validation of the investment in the Bitcoin infrastructure, which is now being bid up the ass because they invested in electricity and energy contracts. So that's the relationship. Seven wet diapers. Why? Because what's bid in the market now is a fucking Bitcoin infrastructure. So that's one thing that hasn't been brought up.

Hopefully I landed that plane. I'm backing off now, Dave. Yeah, I don't understand. It's not Bitcoin infrastructure. I mean, look, Trump literally yesterday said that he believes that the United States needs to double. That's the number, double our electricity production and grid. And that's mostly from AI. Bitcoin is a very important component in maintaining and stabilizing grids.

But so that that's relevant. But if you understand that we're going to a war, where electricity becomes the single most important part and driver, then you position yourself. Absolutely. And so you're right. It's not a core driver. He's not looking at the Bitcoin miners.

But my point was, you know, looking 17 years ago, but what Satoshi said is we need to have, you know, a proof of work animal. And then the miners went out, built it. They got the energy in front. So the focus of building something that is now converting to a higher margin product, I I think, you know, AI, right? You have, what, iron going to 70%, I think, data center over the next 18 months. So I think it validates the thesis about what a good money is built upon because everyone

else understands you need to have energy to back everything to be relevant. So, corollary. So Aladio, I know you've been waiting patiently again. Oh, no, this is an incredible conversation. I love what Mike just said before. Who was talking? Who was talking before me? Mark.

Mark, I love your words. I think you're spot on. I guess I already follow everybody that I think is smart on X. So let me tell you, I put a chart up that really should be the biggest indicator of what Bitcoin will do. And it is a liquidity animal. And it's the 10-year, which by the way, Dave, you're maybe as much of a nerd as I am in the 1950s, we passed the law that pretty much stressed three things the Fed would do. The last one of those, a lot of people never talk about, is where the level of long-term rates are,

because that gives the government the flexibility to push off debt for future generations. And that is the essence of the problem here. There is a breakage and correlation that we have seen for years, and there's no question that gold and, and obviously silver has completely decorrelated from crypto. Crypto is a pure risk asset with incredible advances for the independence of the banking system. That's the future. But we've gone through the first phase, and the same way we went through the first phase in AI, it will not be as easy to make money.

And it's a maturing asset, and you should all be happy. But the problem I see with crypto in the last four years, and now I think we're more realistic about how it functions within the traditional markets, as we see more tokenization, that is the biggest thing that crypto has going, stable coin. What Tether just pulled and buying the incredible amounts of gold that they just did shows you that what we're going to have is a bull market. At the same time that we actually have an escape velocity in the growth of GDP in this country, I keep wondering, why is it so difficult for people to realize that we will probably see plus 5% real GDP growth the next year? When we already post a 4.3% GDP growth, that's going to offset a lot of this. But stable coin is the key.

It is the tokenization of additional risk assets that gives crypto the biggest push into the future because it's going to help us solve some of the reckless policies that we've introduced with fiscal spending and the tokenization of in the CBDC part of the business is going to help traditional assets offset the reckless policies that we have seen in government. I think it's important to before, Andre, I just want to make it clear. Crypto and Bitcoin are not, it's not the same investment case. Bitcoin is. Correct.

I'm limited. I'm limited by FINRA, who I'm going to fire soon. Okay. Well, okay. Okay. Got it. To not say specifics. We always do this and it's important.

There are, it's not just stable coins. It's eliminating enormous frictions in our financial system. And a lot of those are, and there are just many of them. And, you know, we could talk about what those are. and which chains and which assets. I mean, my best guess is north of 95, probably 98% of current crypto assets will be worthless in 10 years. But the 2% that are not plus whatever new ones that come will be worth 10x what everything

is worth today. And so if you understand that, then you invest accordingly. And you can make your own bets on as to which are the 2%. And that's up to you and everybody else. But, I mean, that's my working thesis. And that kind of is very orthogonal to what you just said because people who think that all their bags are going to get pumped just because you can get more in crypto, well, that's fine,

but the value has to go there. Anyway, Andre, you have your hand up, and I don't want to, I don't want to just drone on myself. No, no problem. I just want to, like, connect what Nadia has been saying. I mean, I agree. Like, if you look at correlations, right, between Bitcoin and your

treasuries and gold and the S&P 500 right Bitcoin shows like way higher correlation to the S&P 500 is still about 0.5 to 0.6 or the past three months. So it is a risk on asset. What about the QQQQQ?

Do you have that correlation with the QQQQQS? I think it's higher. It's very, it's even higher. Yeah. It's like, but still around 0.6. But if you compare to gold, like it's zero. right? There's essentially no correlation whatsoever all past three months, right? But I think the interesting thing is, and what you've also posted here,

there's like a smaller correlation between Bitcoin and U.S. Treasury bonds historically than between gold and U.S. treasury bonds. So gold and U.S. treasury bonds are way more correlated, which does make sense somewhat because it's way more interest rate sensitive, right? So Bitcoin tends to be a better diversify. against bond risks, while gold is a better diversifier against equity risks, right? Even during like down days, if you look at S&P 500 down days, gold tends to outperform Bitcoin, but during U.S. Treasury down days, it's the other way around.

Bitcoin tends to outperform gold, which is super interesting. So both make sense in a portfolio. Yeah, and I just want to mention that. And maybe coming full circle to what I've just said earlier. Right. So if Bitcoin is a risk on asset, it calls the risk of asset. So this relative performance is the risk on risk off ratio, right? So that's what I meant when I was talking about. If the moment you see like an increase in risk appetite, Bitcoin should outperform again. Dave, can I just dig into a little bit on the stable coins? I like call them crypto dollars. Make a prediction. I think Tether this year is going to flip into Ethereum. I mean, it's flippant everything. It's been the most key that really draw me to the space initially as Bitcoin,

but it was the proliferation of crypto dollars. Now, we all remember, I'm 2018. Tether was $2 billion. Now it's 148. What stops all crypto dollars from going to, Scott Besson said, going to a couple trillion? It's the key thing I think that's shifted, that people I think are not really understanding it. Is that peer-to-peer cash factor for Bitcoin is done? We don't need it anymore.

We've got crypto dollars. We've got stable coins. So you don't need to take the risk. but just a normal bare market, then it'll be, so right now it's Bitcoin Ethereum Tether. To point out that's the most enduring trend in the haul crypto space, it's tether flipping in other cryptos, I think it's going to be Bitcoin and Tether by the end of the end of the half. Well, as I said, we'll dig into that on Monday. My best, the one rejoinder I would make is everything, more things move on chain in general,

the more businesses will ultimately get disrupted by technologies that leverage those, that thing moving on chain. I am not on Ethereum bull. We all know that. I don't know there's anybody up here who wants to argue that point. But, you know, it's, I think that that's a false comparison. The real comparison is the technologies underlying it that will disrupt everything from securities lending to interest rate swaps to, you know, prime brokerage in general, the notion of Bitcoin and, and work. Rorsch's appointment is hugely important in terms of the ability of Bitcoin banks to become actual, actual business models. I had dinner last night with a friend of the show, Matthew Rozak, who's building a Bitcoin bank in Poland, and we were talking about what you could actually do in an economy and what will actually happen and why fractional reserve banking was incredibly important in a world with

no information flows and no internet, et cetera. But now you can make a really strong argument that fractional reserve banking has a very important has enormous excess risk and probably isn't worth all of the incredible subsidies that we give to the banks. I mean, the banks in the United States alone get $180 billion a year sucked out of the economy and into their pockets, into their bonuses, et cetera, et cetera.

I mean, that's just a fact. And when you start looking at stuff like that, understanding the potential for crypto to be a multiplier effect as you get and enables new business models, it has nothing to do with any of these correlations. Everything I'm talking about is long term. It's not trading advice, and I want that to be seedingly clear. Anyway, I see both Mark and Andre, you have your hands up before I pivot the conversation.

I just want to make sure you have a chance to talk if, in fact, if they're not shadows. Great. I'll jump. Mine is the shadow hands. Well, I'll touch on Andre. First, the correlation. And then I had something else really important to talk about, which I'll remember. the Andre you're dead on and I forget eladio added that NASDAQ's even higher the correlation going into year end and into the new year was that you know kind of that 62 for S&P and I think closer to 70 for NASDAQ with the with Bitcoin and yet the performance had diverted to a ninth to a fifth percentile a lowest Bitcoin underperform the S&P by like 28 percent

So, and I'm sure you already talk about this, but when you're talking about the RIAs and trying to figure out nuggets, and I use these calls to try to, even though I blather, to try to get these discrete nuggets of information to get people's attention, you know, the correlation, it did not correspond to comparable performance over those last three months of Q4 at all. They were wildly different. High correlation, high underperformance. So that's just that one little thing for the group I wanted to share that I find helpful about you tell me people understand it. Can I step in on that point? Because that's really important. Who said that? Mark. It was Mark. That is an excellent point. It's all about staggering of pricing. And if you think about it, Bitcoin is a leading indicator. By leading or a canary in the coal mine means that their breakdowns will take place sooner. Three months periods are too. short for any reliable technical analysis, I think you need to see if you're going to see a correlation break, sort of like the correlation between oil broke and the Dow and the S&P back in 2016, I believe we're in one of those pivot points. But Powell's hesitancy to lower rates and the fact that we had to wait till May is why we're going to have this low. We're priced, we were

price to perfection, from a corolline, a correlational asset pricing model, Bitcoin broke down first, and tech has been rotating out. So I think that pricing model of, sorry, a derivative of the QQs is sticking. And Bitcoin will bottom before the NASDAQ100, and I believe we're starting a correction. It was a buy-the-rumor set up where all the stock's price perfection before these earnings, and now they're giving back all their price appreciation in the last two days based off the fact that the market's price things before they happen. And that that is happening at an earlier stage than it used to 20 years ago.

I mean, Robert, are you behind the mic right now? Because I think there's probably a bunch of this stuff I'd love to hear your eggs on. So, I mean, look, I think that Bitcoin trades like an option. I've said this many, many times. When you start taking three-month recency, when you take recency bias into it, we had an event on October 10th that was unique to Bitcoin that had no impact, absolutely nothing to do with what went on at the NASDAQ

or any of the other assets we're talking about. And so when you look at correlations in the aftermath of a 19 trillion, not you trillion, 19, you know, whatever the number was, It was $19 billion liquidation of it, five of billion of which was in Bitcoin, but it took out the entire crypto complex. And it was due to, you know, like I won't make bones about it. It was a brilliantly engineered manipulation attack. There have been those manipulation attacks in Bitcoin for a very long time, but they've never been at this scale. And you can see it on the graphs of it.

And so every time you start looking at technical analysis comparing Bitcoin prices to this, it's just without that context, problematic. But when you think about what's going on in terms of being able to measure policy and you look at all of the things and indicators you look at, I mean, a lot of these correlations are spurious. I mean, and I know you agree with that because I've seen some of your post recently. I'm curious what you think. Yeah. I would point out that, you know, what I think is informative when it comes to Bitcoin correlations, bank reserves generally when those start, I don't see Bitcoin as a transaction vehicle, a medium of exchange or unit of account in that sort of way. I see it much more akin to M0 rather than M2.

And we know it's very liquidity sensitive. I do agree kind of with that general view that kind of last functioning smoke detector and one of the earliest indicators of liquidity. Well, if you look at when bank reserves generally start to bottom and had high, in a period of Fed expansion when it comes to their balance sheet. Generally, Bitcoin over the next, you know, three months does quite well, six months. Over the short to medium time frame, generally when bank reserves start to increase, Bitcoin does as well. And then I would also say that recently it's kind of interesting to me that Bitcoin's been

trading with a positive correlation to the DXY. So, you know, obviously with gold, for example, when you have the Dixie rallying, generally, that's not good for gold and vice versa. But with Bitcoin, it's actually positive correlation, at least it has been recently, which to me, again, kind of plays into the Bitcoin hyper-financialization that a lot of kind of, you know, OG Bitcoiners have decried, you know, is the market, clearly. There's a pretty strong correlation, positive correlation recently that, the market views Bitcoin as part of the dollar complex, part of the kind of U.S. financial system complex.

And that gets into kind of geopolitical argument that I've made before, which is gold is kind of a bet on China. In Bitcoin, I see kind of as a bet much more on the U.S. But that's a separate conversation. I would just say that with the Fed increasing the balance sheet, bank reserves, I think up by about $200 billion over the past two months. months and going to continue higher, I think that that's positive for Bitcoin. I think that the correlation that I think really matters when it comes to spy QQQ is neither. I think that something like Palantir, right, if you look at when tech and the mag seven and the high beta tech really started a falter, it was within a week or two of when Bitcoin topped. If you look at, for example, you know,

SPY relative to RSP relative to XLK or those sort of things. You know, when we start to see kind of the broadening out in the equity market and the top in that kind of high beta tech corner, that would that, you know, again, within like a week or two, I think it was, was the top in Bitcoin.

So unfortunately, the market views it, much more akin to kind of a high beta tech stock. I don't think that that's accurate. but if we are going into a broadening out of an acceleration and nominal growth, which I've been saying what happened going back to April 2025 when we had that negative GDP print, if we're going to continue to run it even hotter and you get a real broadening out, you get falling interest rates. I think that we're going to get much more than two interest rate cuts over the next, you know,

year or two. If you believe all that, then, you know, what is good for the American economy, was good for the average median American, which is, you know, I would argue the hyper concentration of the Mag 7 driven rally of 2023, 2024 was not an indication of a healthy economy, right? So what might be good for the kind of real economy, good for the median American, broadening out when it comes to growth and, you know, kind of this reflation that cyclical upturn sort of thing, that could actually be bad for Bitcoin. If it continues to trade as a high beta tech stock, you know, a mag seven times two, it could actually kind of be a headwin for Bitcoin.

So there's a lot of kind of cross currents. You know, I think that there's a lot of volatility, obviously, a lot of uncertainty over the next year or two. Personally, I bought more this morning. I think sentiment is so extremely negative. And, you know, the TA, the trader in me, right? you know it's holding that 82 82 5 or whatever it was it's holding there i don't know i just see precious metals starting to duke i see you know kevin warsh fed share you know pre hawkish fed share being nominated sentiment at extreme lows and it's not able to break that now if it breaks that you know me i'm

probably wrong and we're we're headed lower but i don't know i i like to buy when everyone is fearful when everyone is uh you know super bearish and that appears to be what i see uh when it comes to Bitcoin right now. Yeah, I think the most important, my most important question that I wish I knew the answer to, but I don't because we don't have the transparency in the market is how much blood is in the street. How many traders, how much hot momentum traders in the metals complex got obliterated over the last two days?

Dave, did you see that the Goldman's head, precious got, didn't got left the firm. I think. Yeah, well, Goldman lost the money. money, but that's not going to matter. I'm not talking about, you know, the big boys who, you know, could lose billions and not blink about it. I'm talking about, you know, the, in, like, October 10th, the estimate is north of 100,000 active traders got blown up, like completely gone, right, you know, in the crypto world. I'm sure that the number of people who are trading contract for differences and trading on emerging crypto platforms, which are incredible for trading.

I mean, look, zero some. Some people made a fortune in the last two days. trading. I mean, you know, my firm, people trading on hyperliquid can trade this stuff. I mean, you can trade metals and commodities in a variety of ways. They're just much less transparent than in the crypto world. It's getting more transparent, but it's going to take time. I am sure there's a lot of pain. And that pain isn't, it's not obvious because if the pain is in the Goldman Sachs of the world, then it doesn't really matter. If the pain is in people who are wiped out and their money will no longer flow into any of these casinos, that is a big deal. And, And, you know, if you believe the silver is going to move back toward 50, and this was just a short-term blip, then you're assuming that most of the people who drove the price are out of the market.

Most likely what you have is enormous volatility. I mean, I thought, and a lot of people did, because people forget 80 was the demarcation point, right? Right. That was when the CME raised margin requirements. And I thought 100 would be really hard to get through. Instead, it went woof all the way through, a 20% more, which is crazy for a metal, right? crazy for something with trillions in market cap. It went 20% beyond what most people thought was a reasonable stopping point where there would be technical difficulties. And so that up and down, that's going to cause a lot of carnage. And I don't know. I mean, I'd be curious if anyone has any notion of that, but that's a big deal. Any thoughts? Am I seeing this correct that the Shanghai premium is 29? That's what people are saying. I don't have good data on that. I would love to have someone who has good data. But yes, there's the premium.

Maybe Mike. You know, yeah, I don't think Bloomberg, you know, if it does, I think it's on, look, they're sleeping right now. So who the hell knows, right? We'll see what happens over the weekend. We'll see it. My personal prediction is there's volatility is far more likely than sustained direction in, in both metals, but particularly in silver, because I still think silver is going to outperform gold.

And I'm not saying that they're not going to both correct and have a lot of volatility. And from a narrative perspective, I just, you know, there's, a cosmic kind of humor sometimes when it comes to markets. What better cosmic humor than Jerome Powell, chairman of the Fed, being asked if he's worried about gold and telling everyone, oh, I don't watch gold. It doesn't worry me. Like, you know, as a top signal, like what, to me, I don't know that. That, to me, that's just kind of funny.

And Rob, do you say that because a central banker who doesn't look at gold is a problematic central banker? Well, yeah, like that, like what else, what, what, you know, that, that that was the top. If you look at, uh, at gold, I'm not sure about silver, but if you look at gold, that, that, that eight hour candle where the Fed meeting happened was basically the top, like within like, you know, zero point two percent or something. So, uh, yeah, you know, like, if that can't get gold higher, you know, what, what, what, what is going to come around to get to, to move to move gold higher? You know what I I mean, it just kind of, to me, I remember thinking it when it happened, you know, live during the FOMC meeting.

But, but yeah, now looking back, that was basically the top, which I just kind of think is is a bit funny. Yep. It's funny. Hmm. I mean, you know, there are some spaces that start up pretty soon that where you get the conspiracy theorists all come out with the tinfoil hats and everything. And I'm sure there are a lot of people who are looking at that.

But, hey, Gary, are you behind the mic? You there? Yeah. What is the seven diaper model? Well, that's what Mark was talking about just now, right? The seven diaper model, you didn't get it? Yes, yes. Yes.

It's all intact. You may not see it, but it's working through the system. That's the point. Look at the input. Look at the output. Trust the system. Okay. I'll leave that.

I'll leave that there. Well, anyway, we are getting closer to time, and I for one, wouldn't mind ending a minute or two early. You know, the markets seem to be stable around these levels, silver still, you know, what are we? Oh, it's broke 98. It's at 97 now. Gold still just over 5,000 down from, you know, what are we at? You know, 15% down on silver in a day. Gold down 6% in a day.

Bitcoin, you know, still sitting right around the 83,000 level. You know, if anyone else has anything else to say, say, I guess we're going to see what happens next week. A lot of people are talking about, you know, Warsh. Everyone keeps saying about a hawk. I think the most important points about Warsh as a nominee are two things. One, he and Bacent are aligned, and that's really what Trump wants to do. This administration wants to have Treasury and the Fed be able to work together to re-industrial America. And there's a lot of going on, rebuild productive capacity. The other big story on electricity. And Gary, this is important for you. I'm curious if you heard.

Trump specifically talked about how he has put Lee Zeldon and is doing, you know, praise Lee Zeldon for doing lots of deregulation to improve permitting and building of energy capacity. And that's not a small thing. I mean, Lee Zellin for those who don't know runs the EPA, you know, basically on the environment side. I mean, I assume you think that's kind of a big deal in terms Well, look, they have to drop regulations, right? I mean, you can't build these things in the time we need them, and then they have all these regs here. So this will be Europe's biggest problem.

They can't get out of their own way, not to mention they have no resources. But having a bunch of resources and having no regulation, Trump doesn't like regulations. So that should be healthy for us. We can't do this with a bunch of, I mean, the requirements from states, state to do electric load balancing is just impossible. They're all different. We just have too many administrators in the middle. So I can't imagine Trump not wanting to get rid of some of that. Yeah, no, I think that's a big driver in terms of the real economy. And I think people need to

understand that. So when you start talking about ratios and GDP, understand that's the thing that even if the midterms go the way that everyone thinks they're going to go and we get no legislation at all effectively for the rest of Trump's term. He has put, he has a deregulatory set of appointees throughout the, you know, throughout the administration for the next three years. And yes, some of that stuff can get undone, but some, but a lot, undoing it is not as easy as people think. So we'll see.

But to me, that's, that's not a trivial thing. So anyway, on that note, unless anyone has anything else to say, we're going to call it here. We will see you all Monday morning at 1015. and everyone stay safe and enjoy your weekend. And if you're not down here in sunny Florida, where we're going to hit, I think we're going to get under 40 degrees here in Miami Beach at some point.

But still, you know, 68 degrees now. Everyone stay warm out there. It looks like the whole country is going to be cold. Take care, everyone. Thanks, Dave. See y'all.