The Wolf Of All Streets - Extremely Bullish On Bitcoin: Crypto To Become A National Priority

Starting point is 00:00:00 Donald Trump is expected to issue an executive order calling cryptocurrency a national priority, and this could happen on day one. The bullish hits just keep on coming for Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency industry. And that's not the only thing that happened this week. Fortunately, I got NLW here to unpack all of it on the Friday Five. Let's go. What is up, everybody? I'm Scott Melker, also known as the Wolf of All Streets. Before we get started, please subscribe to the channel. Let's go. Trump plans to designate cryptocurrency as a national priority.

Starting point is 00:01:07 Executive order expected to create a crypto advisory council. We knew that. Trump allies are discussing stopping federal crypto litigation, which we'll get into later, but literally calling cryptocurrency a national priority. What does this mean? I think that the question is, so one, you got to love when the breaking news articles on Bloomberg, not like Coindesk or one of the crypto outlets, it just shows kind of how different things are. I think that the question, so there is a flurry of information around what might come with these executive orders. It seems to me, my best read is that it hasn't been, that there's a lot of discussion, right? I don't think that this is a question of plans are fixed and we're just not getting the full story. I think that there's

Starting point is 00:01:56 probably a lot in flux right now. We've heard the possibility of repealing or stopping existing litigation efforts. We've heard a bunch of different things. One thing that notably we haven't heard is any sort of more rumors around strategic Bitcoin reserve as a likely Trump priority. I think the question when it comes to this idea of designating it as a national priority, the question for me will be, what does that actually mean? I actually think that that coming out of the Trump administration on day one might be less impactful if it doesn't have some specifics behind it than it would have seemed maybe a couple months ago, just because he's so now, Trump is already associated with crypto. He's already the crypto president relative to market understanding.

Starting point is 00:02:47 And so it really has to be actual action, not just symbolic action at this point. So not that it's not a good thing. Obviously, this is hyper bullish. But if it designates crypto a national priority, by which he means point one, stops all crypto litigation, you know, creates a special panel to study a strategic Bitcoin reserve, you know, and step three creates, you know, incentives for Bitcoin miners. That's a whole different ballgame. Yeah, there's some conjecture that this could basically be the inverse Biden executive order, right? Obviously, those who remember we had this Biden executive order saying that agencies should take a deeper look into crypto policy, send him their feedback. And people actually took that as bullish at the time, if we recall, that he was mentioning cryptocurrency and it was a priority. People saying that maybe this is sort of the inverse of that, where he says, hey, every agency, take a look and send

Starting point is 00:03:38 me your feedback. Tell me what you want to do with crypto, but in a positive light. Yeah. I mean, could be that again, that would be the more specific it is, the more action aligned it is, I think the more impactful it is. But listen, I thought there was a meaningful chance that in the swirl of everything else that has to get done, crypto would be more like a week three priority than a day one priority. So if this really is a day one thing or a day two thing, I think that does speak volumes on its own. Yeah, just like to speak to that, we have this as potentially a day one priority. We've seen news that the executive order on SAB 121 could come day one.

Starting point is 00:04:18 So where there's smoke, there's usually fire. I think crypto will be in the conversation now, and that makes me feel a lot, a lot better sleepy at night. Yeah. I mean, listen, Cynthia Lummis tweeted and then tried to tamp down, you know, it's about to get crazy. Don't fall for scams. And people are like, whoa, what do you know? And she's like, no, no, I don't know anything. It's like, well, you did just tweet. It's about to get crazy. So, yeah, listen, I think that there's an element with all of this of everybody capturing the hype of this moment. Right. And so even if Trump's not mentioning an SBR, she's been leading that charge. So not surprised that she would be trying to hype the idea of that being a first hundred day priority. And listen, I mean, we have, you know, the New York Post running articles that we could get a strategic shit going reserve.

Starting point is 00:05:03 You know, it's not what it said. But adding XRP, Solana, Made in America tokens, I don't think Trump really said that. But it just speaks to the fact that anyone who has the opportunity here to get some free PR on the back of the hype around crypto and politics is taking that opportunity and should. I think Trump goes out there and says, hey, I could add Salon or XRP or whoever said it from his administration because he wants these people to keep giving him money and support him and keep the flywheel going. Well, another interesting thing, which I don't think was on our list is, obviously, Trump

Starting point is 00:05:41 has some very loud tech supporters. Musk has been all over the place as part of this transition. He's running Doge. More quiet, but seemingly significant, it appears that Marc Andreessen has basically been living at Mar-a-Lago for the last month. And he's just started to talk about it a little bit. But I think on an interview in a podcast, he said that he was spending like 75% or 80 percent of his time on the Trump transition. And again, this is totally unannounced and not discussed. And Andreessen is obviously hugely focused on things like crypto policy, you know, AI and advanced technology in general.

Starting point is 00:06:17 But, you know, A16Z is one of the more loud advocates for positive crypto policy. So to the extent that he is involved in actual policymaking and decision making, which you got to think that if he's been there for a month and no one has been really talking about it, he's probably hanging out with the people who are actually trying to craft the executive orders rather than people who are trying to make headlines. So that's another detail which suggests to me that maybe there could be more on this sphere than we might think. I was entirely unaware of that. That's really great information to have. The next story has to be the macro. This is kind of where we were going to start before that. NASDAQ futures jumping 1% as Fed rate cut bets revived. We got a giggle.

Starting point is 00:07:00 Of course, Bitcoin rises past 100,000 threshold amid risk rally renewal. This to me, looking at the data that we've had over the last couple of weeks, right? We had job data that was difficult to parse. We've had inflation data that was difficult to parse. Is it good? Is it bad? Is it meeting expectations good or bad or the actual number? And to me, it feels like regardless of what the data actually said, the market was just

Starting point is 00:07:26 waiting for an excuse to go back up. We had these fears, we had yields rising, and everybody's just dying to hit the buy button. And even if they could have someone say, hey, CPI is pretty good, go. I mean, we had Bitcoin from 100 to below 90 back to 100 in a matter of 96 hours. Yeah. I think that you're right that the market was waiting for it, which to me says that the market might have realized that it got, it was getting a little overly pessimistic. And it had overcorrected for something that wasn't bad news. It was just potentially less clear on the future, right?

Starting point is 00:08:00 When it came to, our whole discussion last week was about what these different job reports meant. Did they portend more inflation was really the big thing. If there were more jobs were raising at a higher rate than we thought, that means that not only is there potentially a reason to pause the cutting cycle, does it actually mean that inflation might be stickier than we think and we might even have to put hikes back on the table, right? That was a fear and that sort of insecurity was driving a lot of the market concern. But then we got the CPI report this week and it was interesting. I mean, to your point, the overall number was up slightly, but the headline CPI was down. It was down for the first time in six months. And I think beyond just the headline CPE being down, which is obviously a more significant

Starting point is 00:08:53 factor for the Fed. They've been very clear on that. We also started to see that... So shelter costs came down. It was a big part of this. Or shelter costs didn't come down, but they went up by their lowest rate for some amount of time, basically. And one of the nuances of the inflation conversation for months has been, does the stickiness of

Starting point is 00:09:16 inflation actually reflect stickiness of inflation? Or does it reflect the lag specifically in shelter data, which is sort of the hardest to calculate? I think not only did this show headline CPE down for the first time in six months, which is not only not bad, it was actually positive. It also came from that shelter area, which added credence to the belief that perhaps even some of the previous, you know, uh, negativeness was, uh, what was sort of based on, you know, uh, a misreading or just a lag in the data. I just giggle because like the fact that we have to say, you know, the belief and the perhaps, and they could be, we all know that these numbers are probably going to be revised anyways, but,

Starting point is 00:10:01 uh, that they're exceptionally hard to calculate and the market is mostly animal spirits. Yeah. I mean, look, everything for the last, you can boil everything down to is, do we think inflation is going to go up or do we think inflation is going to go down? And what does that mean the Fed's going to do? And so the TLDR is, this one pretty clearly said, this gave a bunch in the column of, it's probably going to keep going down, which means we get to proceed at pace with all of our fun. Yeah. Last week, we were not going to cut because of strong jobs. And this week, maybe we'll cut because of inflation data. It's cool. March, the potential

Starting point is 00:10:36 of the pricing in of a March rate cut went from zero to 30%. That's kind of all you need to know. That says everything you need to know. Also, I mean, we had 10-year yields just crater. Yeah. Yeah. Just for reference, for those who haven't looked at the chart, I mean, it hit basically 4.8%. I think it was on Monday and then just fell off a cliff. But at that point, it was, oh, my God, they're going way above five. We're so screwed.

Starting point is 00:11:01 Yeah. Yeah. We one thing that is always the case is we definitely always whatever is the latest thing that happened is the most important thing that's ever happened or will ever happen until the next thing. And we kind of behave as such. So that's a good reminder, I think, always to to try to avoid over over indexing on any on any one piece of news. Yeah. Well, we have to go right back to Trump. It's still the biggest story and everything surrounding it. And I have a feeling it will be for a while. And of course, in this case, we're talking about Scott Besant, who will be confirmed at Treasury. He's going to wind down his hedge funds. Wow. Someone from the government divesting their financial interest to become a

Starting point is 00:11:42 government official. Crazy. That's so like eight years ago to have somebody do that. But yes, he's actually going to do that. I mean, this is his hedge fund. He's going to divest dozens of assets, but including, I believe it was up to $500,000 in Bitcoin spot ETF. So there was doubt that this guy is a believer. He owns it himself. And he's also opposed to central bank digital currencies and much more likely to be crypto friendly as we know. Yeah. I mean, look, the headline here is homey owns Bitcoin ETFs, a small portion of his portfolio, but it's a small portion of basically everyone like his portfolio if it exists at all. And for many, it still doesn't. So it's, you know, the signal that he's not just giving lip service to

Starting point is 00:12:31 it, he's actually put some of his capital into it is real. He's an interesting one, I think, relative to all of the other Trump officials. This is a guy who definitely has a point of view on structural shifts happening in the world and how the next generation plays out and wants to have a role. And I think that him fully leaning into this role, right, not hedging a bit, divesting himself of everything is further reflection of the idea that this for him is not just, oh, cool, I'll go, You know, LARP is a government official for a few weeks until I get fired. It's this is what he wants to be doing. And he's he's he's strapping in to go.

Starting point is 00:13:14 He's going to last more than one Scaramucci for sure. Yeah, I think so. Yeah, I mean, this and this is honorable mention on the Treasury side, but I'm sure you saw this story that Chinese hackers breached U.S. treasury computers. Apparently, they had access to Janet Yellen's laptop. Oh, my God. We didn't talk about it at all, but have you been watching the memes as TikTokers have angrily started downloading this Red Note app which is actually owned by the ccp i saw one uh very enthusiastic uh young woman talking about going to china and finding a husband there and hoping that they were tall because red note was so much better than tiktok and she didn't care

Starting point is 00:13:59 the tiktok was disappearing it was quite entertaining but only one i know it's a trend the memes are hilarious i mean holding aside whatever aside whatever you think about TikTok and about the generation, nothing could be more quintessentially American than telling the government to piss off by downloading an app from the enemy that they're trying to get out of their face. I mean, it's just, it is so, it's the most petulant side of rebellious America. And it's hard to laugh at. You want our data? Yeah. Here you go. But yeah, I mean, the takes in even that one video, but the obvious ones, it's just so funny. Like, you know, taking our data of us twerking. There you go. Americans love to twerk. You got us. So listen, moving from

Starting point is 00:14:46 to the SEC, that's the next story, obviously. Trump's new SEC leadership poised to kickstart crypto overhaul, sources say. This, of course, now pivoting to Paul Atkins, likely to be the SEC chair. But we also know that there will be sort of a period where Gensler steps down. There were only before SEC chairman during that time, Uyeda and Peirce, obviously the two Republicans. And as Atkins getting confirmed, one of those two, most likely Uyeda, it seems, will become the acting chairman while he's getting confirmed. But basically already saying they're going to stop these enforcement actions against Coinbase, Kraken, or any crypto enforcement, or at least take a very deep look at them. And probably we're not going to see any more of those coming in the future, which also is hilarious, by the way, in the fact that the SEC decided, or at least it really came

Starting point is 00:15:38 out yesterday, that they were going to appeal the XRP decision days before we had to do a new administration that's obviously going to drop these things. Yeah. Yeah, this is a fun one. I think, you know, going back to that idea of we are quickly going to shift from stories of what could be having resonance to stories of what actually is and it being a put up or shut up moment. And this feels like Commissioner Purson, your way to have been let off the leash to make sure that the moment that Paul Atkins sits down, his desk has 10 proposals sitting there for stuff they should actually do right away and move. You know, it's the collective set of things that that I think that, you know, that that set of commissioners things should have been done or should have been looked at differently. I think that this is very positive and will be

Starting point is 00:16:25 significantly meaningful in terms of its actual impact. Yeah, they're taking the governor off the crypto industry in the United States, right? I mean, it's been nothing but antipathy from the government stopping us at every turn. Chokepoint 2.0, of course, that's not the SEC, but all these things are going to be lifted. To me, actually, and I've said this before, it kind of puts the onus on the crypto industry to actually put up or shut up as well. If we have no more excuses, we have to prove that we're worthy of this limelight and this moment. And so I'm really hoping that we don't go through another period where some scammer or failure or collapse steals the limelight from the things that are actually being built and might have a chance to shine. Yeah.

Starting point is 00:17:12 So the next story we have here. Interesting. U.S. government says seized Bitcoin from 2016 hack should be returned to Bitfinex. You can see the story here on Twitter. Government says seized Bitcoin should be returned in bitfinex you can see the story here on twitter uh government says these bitcoin should be returned in kind right so this is really interesting because ladies and gentlemen here's your uh united states strategic stockpile of bitcoin right we know that the uh the us marshals or the doj has potentially begun selling or intends to sell the Silk Road Bitcoin. But the largest tranche,

Starting point is 00:17:46 I believe, left, it's almost 100,000 Bitcoin here, is from Bitfinex. If you guys don't remember, this was hacked from Bitfinex. You had Rosal Khan and her boyfriend basically finally being caught. But the United States government is holding this as if they own the asset. But that, as I've said before, is like somebody coming in my house, stealing my wife's engagement ring. The United States government recovers it and then says it's theirs instead of my wife's. Yeah. I mean, that's why the response to this has been like, huh, doing the right thing. Not really sure what to do with it. Is a lot of- Is a lot of- How is there even a question? It's theirs.

Starting point is 00:18:21 A lot of Bitcoin Twitter had a tough time writing a set of tweets after this one. It's like looking for something to do wrong, but actually agreeing with the US government on something. Look, I mean, the other dimension of this, which is important to note, is that part of this decision is basically that they believe that Bitfinex made sort of fair accounting with its customers. So in their estimation, Bitfinex is the sole victim at this point, right? Like this is going back to Bitfinex, not to be redistributed to those customers because Bitfinex did something else to make them whole based on the previous situation. So this is just a big pile of Bitcoin that's going to come back and land with these folks. I think it's fair to say, though,

Starting point is 00:19:05 if it's not going to be a strategic stockpile and that's not going to be added there, which I think we all believe is morally wrong based on where these came from, that Bitfinex, a.k.a. Palo Arduino, a.k.a. Tether is a really good place for this to land, considering that they add Bitcoin to their actual balance sheet on a regular basis and are likely to be diamond handed with this into perpetuity. Yeah, they're also just about the only institution in the world that might literally plausibly not give a crap about $9 billion showing up in their accounts. 9 billion, it's a rounding error. Yeah, I agree. If you're going to plop 9 billion down, a Bitcoin down with someone, that's about as good a place as you can do it.

Starting point is 00:19:46 Yeah, because every other time we've had a situation like this, FTX creditors getting money back or Celsius or anything, whatever it is, it's always, are they going to buy? Are they going to sell? Where's that money going to go? Is it going to be bullish or bearish for the market? I think that this is decidedly bullish. We have one final story here that I haven't really

Starting point is 00:20:05 unpacked. So I'm counting on you, tech group Sue, USCFPB, to block rule on payment apps, digital wallets. Peter Van Valkenburg, so we get two midnight rulemakings for the price of one this year. Here's our take on the recent CFPB rule to apply reggae to crypto. It's unclear whether they intend to cover self-custody wallet developers. They do include self-custody wallet developers. The rule would be beyond the CFPB's statutory authority. Okay, go ahead, man. It's the perfect capstone to the last four years. Midnight rule, trying to get a last one in. And the idea is that the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, which, by the way, has sort of got it very high up on the Doge chopping block by all reports, is saying that there needs to be consumer protections around crypto wallets and stablecoin transactions.

Starting point is 00:20:58 And as always is the case, there's either a lack of consideration of self-custody and how that is fundamentally different than third-party-owned wallets and infrastructure, or an actual attempt to just bury self-custody. And that's sort of what Van Valkenburgh is saying there. It's like, we can't tell from as it's written if they're stupid or malicious, but one way or another, it's not going to work if they intend to drag net that in. It's this one, as opposed to, for example, the last minute stuff at the end of the last Trump administration with Steve Mnuchin, it doesn't really raise the hackles because it's just so clearly not going to go anywhere. I think it's more, of course, we were going to get a last minute. Listen, the only thing left for Bideniden to do to to float throw the double middle

Starting point is 00:21:46 fingers up is to pardon sam on the way out the door you know that's that's it everything else they've done so i can't see it i don't i don't think i don't think so i i think i just think he doesn't like biden he knows who he is yeah but yeah but but the biden does not have any fucks to give left to this point for a variety of reasons. And I can't imagine this one being there. I think, unfortunately for Sam and what maybe some people are forgetting is that Sam's influence was entirely predicated on how fast he was accumulating wealth. That is gone now. He doesn't really have that. If you can't just show up in the club and start making it rain,

Starting point is 00:22:27 nobody really cares. It's weird guys. When you go to strip club, they don't like you if you don't throw the money at them. And it's the same in the United States Congress and Senate, apparently. Indeed. Yeah.

Starting point is 00:22:37 All right, guys, that's all we got for you today. Quick Friday five. Love it. We'll be back. Of course, next week,

Starting point is 00:22:42 follow NLW on X YouTube everywhere else. And check out, of course, next week. Follow NLW on X, YouTube, everywhere else, and check out, of course, his daily show, The Breakdown, which is amazing. Thank you very much. Always a pleasure. Guys, we will see you on Monday. Thanks, man. Later. Let's go.

The Wolf Of All Streets - Extremely Bullish On Bitcoin: Crypto To Become A National Priority

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