The Wolf Of All Streets - FTX And Crypto Contagion: Lessons Learned From On-Chain Data | Willy Woo

Episode Date: November 30, 2022

Popular analyst Willy Woo joins me to talk about Bitcoin bottom, FTX and how on-chain data analysis can help spot the next crypto contagion and why it did not happen this time.   Willy Woo: https://twitter.com/woonomic ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER https://www.getrevue.co/profile/TheWolfDen  GET UP TO A $8,000 BONUS IN USDT AND TRADE ALL SPOT PAIRS ON BITGET FOR ZERO FEES! ►► https://thewolfofallstreets.info/bitget   Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://twitter.com/scottmelker  Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/wolfofallstreets   Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.io  Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe  Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c  #Bitcoin #Crypto #Trading The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

The FTX collapse remains the talk of the town as the crypto contagion continues to spread. Now, everyone knows that I'm primarily a technical analyst and I follow the news, but we have a whole slew, thousands and millions at this point, maybe millions of billions of on-chain analysts joining and piling on to tell us their thoughts on what's happening, but most of them suck. So I like to talk to on-chain analysts that actually know what they're talking about, like the OG legend, Willy Woo. Now we're going to obviously talk about what lessons we learned from the FTX collapse. Maybe if there's anything on-chain that we can look at to see what might come next, but also just generally to talk about where the space is at, whether we're likely seeing

our beloved assets bottom or whether there's more pain coming. I've got Willy Woo right now, guys. Let's go. rough, rough run in the crypto space of late. But I'm starting to feel a little more bullish. Maybe I'm crazy. Maybe I'm nuts. But it feels like most of the bad news is starting to get priced in. And we're starting to see my favorite indicator in the world ever of all time, which is mainstream media telling me that Bitcoin is going to zero. It's my favorite thing. It's my favorite thing. I tweeted about it this morning. The European Central Bank said that, here we go, the apparent stabilization of Bitcoin's value is likely to be an artificially induced last gasp before the crypto asset embarks on a road to irrelevance. Wow. They said that, and they also admitted in the paper that it was a threat so of course i

wrote a bottom is in when i saw that tweet but willie also i just saw commented on that tweet i'm gonna bring him on right now willie how are you man hey scott good to be here this is kind of the first podcast in a while hey yeah man we got you know we gotta keep gotta gotta keep you in the keep you in the mix we can't just uh allow you only to send snarky responses on Twitter. We got to have you on YouTube as well. You're like not so secretly the funniest person on Twitter and your comments, I just die every single time you respond to anything because you share that sense of horrid sarcasm, I think, that I have.

But this is what you said about the European central bank. This is an absolute dream. I didn't think this would happen so quick when I first researched Bitcoin nine years ago. Central banks are acknowledging Bitcoin as a threat to their existence by funding it. Right? I mean, the road to irrelevance. Could they be any more, like, obvious here as to what's happening? Yeah.

Yeah, yeah. And I think following that, I mean, this thing is stabilizing. My God, every time it stabilizes after a bear market, that's pretty telling that it's an accumulation phase, right? It's the bottom, right? It is the bottom. It's ironic. I think it's some sort of conspiracy that some unforeseen scammers are holding up the price of Bitcoin just before this thing's going to collapse to zero. Yeah, I mean, it's that time in the cycle, really, that the accumulation does come in, right? Like people buy and they put a floor on the price. The volatility drops.

And we saw that in, when was it was it 2018 2018 bottom um 2015 bottom um we even saw it in the 2012 bottom um so yeah yeah sure people are holding the price up that's because they want bitcoin yeah if anything you would say that if there's artificial pressure it would be on the sell side, right? I mean, obviously, we have bankruptcies, liquidations, I mean, forced liquidations, I should say. The notion that somebody is artificially propping the price up seems to be the opposite of what would be happening. Yeah, right. It's being absorbed. What was really interesting with the BlockFi bankruptcy, we saw a sort of pullback.

It went down beforehand. I kind of think that was sort of inside sellers knowing that that announce would happen. It went down, you know, what is it? $500, something like that. And it got quickly absorbed. And then now we're breaking to the upside. So I think we've got a lot of buyers at this price.

Certainly the indicators I have are showing, you know, when you see a lot of coins moving and the price going sideways, that's a sure sign of accumulation. And so that's been happening. I'm tracking it. That's the reason why it's going sideways. So there you go. I mean, we were going sideways before the FTX collapsed, right?

And then sort of global markets started to turn around to the upside. My feeling is that we'd be sitting at like 25,000 right now, if not for the whole FTX situation. I mean, do you share that? Or do you think that this last drop was sort of baked in anyways? Yeah, very much so. I mean, the indicators had bottomed. Particularly one I was looking at was really supply that's underwater.

Every single cycle, there's a trend line that's, you know, it trends downwards, trends downwards. And when that trend line breaks to the upside, it has always happened in the middle of an accumulation zone and it broke in that sideways before the FTX sort of barcode. So actually that is my view, is that we were setting up for a decent accumulation phase, we were building that multiple month accumulation bottom. And then wham, we had another round of deleveraging, but accumulation is still happening. So yeah, I agree. I think that we would be in the high-ish,

but not the high-ish, but let's say mid, between the 20s. 23 to 24, 25, somewhere in there. Yeah, I think think we're setting up for like 18 to 24 sort of sideways band for a few more months. And then we had the deleveraging happen. So we're now continuing that in the 16 to 18 band now. Yeah, I agree. I agree.

Yeah, we're not so far below breaking back into that other sort of range though. And I actually had pulled up one of your tweets here. You can see it says, Bitcoin bottom is getting close under the max pain model. Historically, Bitcoin price reaches macro cycle bottoms when 58 to 61% of coins are underwater. That's orange.

I'm going to bring that up. Green shading adjusts for the coins locked up inside GBT stress. I mean, this is the supply underwater you were talking about. Could you talk a bit more about what that max pain means? Yeah, yeah. So that max pain is like what those are contours of where the price has to hit till, you know, how much of the coin supply is underwater from their buy price and so that is i believe that's 30 roughly 38 uh 58 to 60 of the coins being underwater

um and so that's where you get that band within that that two percent band has been where it's hit in all the um bottoms that we've had in the last few cycles. So I'm just tracking that as a target. So actually there's this sort of pencil sketch chart that I've posted a few times and what we're actually doing here is looking at the this is actually a complete profile of the density you know you can think of this as like a volume profile for the traders out there we get dense lines that's where a lot of coins have have last traded at that value right so it's kind of like a volume profile but it's a it's a it's a profile of how many coins traded at that price out of the whole bitcoin supply and i've cropped it off at um you

know down to here which is like there's another 28 of the coins that traded below uh that that price here um so effectively i'm looking at um the there's a particular contour that hits all of these these these price bottoms right and that that's the contour of how much of the suppliers underwater obviously by here as the price goes under you're part of the losing squad until you know you hit it hits a point where it doesn't go any further that's your max pain and this is a charting as we go through 100 of people in profit at the at the 70 000 top and as we the price starts trading down we cut through all these contours and now we're currently at about 45 of the supply

is is underwater and actually what i was saying is you can draw this trend line actually i can't draw on this chart but you can draw a trend line here and when you get this sort of change in movement where the supply starts to climb and not experience so much pain that usually happens in this accumulation about right in that zone there. So it's before the breakout and it's been reliable with past cycles here and you get the breakout. I think if you draw it to here, that's the breakout, it's the middle of the accumulation zone. And actually we were forming a really nice trend line here. I remember monitoring this at this point, it hit at at this point it hit there and

then it snuck out and it stuck out right at that zone here and was ready to start to um you know put in a floor and then we had the unwind from ftx um so this now looks like a bump and run pattern where we break out of the trend and then we're now retesting the trend line um my opinion that that this will test well and go upwards um and here we go let's draw that chart so what i've done here is actually now also account for the grayscale coins which is um i think it's about three four percent of the bitcoin supply maybe even more four and a half percent yeah something something crazy um 630 000 bitcoin in there and then if you look at um what's happening inside there roughly 60 percent assuming 60 of the coins are underwater. I did a survey and you kind of can account for what's

happening in that black box which won't be shown on chain. The green sort of corrects for that and so that is currently today at $13,000 and climbing quite quickly you can if we zoom in to this zone here, you can see that that's climbing up quite quickly. So we're getting quite close to a touch. It doesn't have to touch every time. We didn't touch there. So, yeah. It's damn close. And even if we chop sideways, that can just rise to the price.

Right? Price doesn't have to come down to support. Support can come up to the price in this situation, kind of like a movie. Exactly. Exactly. Like here, this chopped sideways and then it caught up. So that's looking good.

And, of course, we have in the on-chain world a ridiculous amount of macro indicators. You can see it in like, you know, we've got this sort of stuff. Like, interestingly, here's a destruction like bottom. We're using bitcoins destroyed. So effectively, when coins move from an old hand that bought a long, long time ago and passed to a new investor, that carries with it not only the volume of coins, but the lag and the amount of time that came out of the wallet. It's called destruction.

You can use that in a way to create this kind of model where we're trying to catch the bottoms. And so as altcoins sell sell out it lifts this floor and so this is a model that I did while back in 2019. So about I think we was around here we and that um that held with the covid dip and now we're really on it um so it'll be interesting see if we this this model breaks or not even with all this unwinding um so that model there is is is hitting the floor so that's another one to watch um and so we have a crazy number of these indicators like you can see every single thing is showing like potential bottom right yeah right you can have in in the rv ratio which is you know pretty much the how much it's valued compared to how much people invested into the network and bottom again so you know lately i've been taking all of this stuff and like going

let's grab it this is like 13 of these macro indicators and um i've put them all together right and it was like there we go this is actually there's more than two of us in that right it's like there they all are right um that's so that's a lot that's you know it's so what i like about this is it's starting to show um like it's starting to show us all of them in in concert and um and so i've i've grouped them into um you know sectors like this this, the cyan color is the hodl power. There's different colors here. This bluish is measuring the profit from investors. And each one of them are composited of many, many, maybe three,

up to three or maybe four different metrics. And so you can look at it and you can see well like this this bear market they're all very much agreeing um yeah and they're also agreeing that we're at the bottom like if you drew a support on any chart it would be very clear that we're sitting at it right i mean that's right just draw one horizontal line there it's very obvious that uh it is that support yeah i mean this is and this is um yeah that's that's the thing it's not only in the bottom but in this this bear market they're starting to agree with each other whereas the prior market there was a little bit of discrepancy in different dimensions that you're looking at um so the broadness of this area was wider.

But they're very much coalescing into very, very much agreeing. There's a little bit more uncertainty since we're bottoming. It's widening out. But mostly we're in a bottom zone. I mean, something seriously bad would have to happen i think for us to you know um break this down um a lot further and have you know we haven't done this um i guess ever in bitcoin's history you know we dipped as low as here in the early days but you can also see from these metrics they were pretty wild pretty wild yeah right 2010 was a completely different ministry back then and it was very wild moves

and the metrics were the needles were spinning everywhere right and and then we sort of capture it um the way this works is it it's a it's a four-year um metric on standard deviation so we haven't even coalesced four years of um of of backtrace here for it to normalize so here around here it starts to become normalized right so like from here it's very very reliable um so anyway that's that's uh i mean that's that's that's my view of it actually it was not my view it's these are these are metrics booked by um all of all of us really um so okay so so i mean worst case scenarios we get another ftx like event a coinbase or a binance or some huge which i'm not saying that's going to happen. My God, people are going to edit that and be like, Scott Melker said Binance is going to collapse.

No, not at all. But is that what it would take to push this below 12, 10, something like that? I mean, is there a number that would surprise you at the bottom? Because clearly you've shown some indicators here that say price could easily go to 10 or 12. So clearly I don't think 10 or 12 would shock you

at this point, right? Yeah, I don't think 10 or 12 would shock you at this point, right? Yeah, I don't think. I don't think 12 wouldn't shock me. 10, I think everyone's wanting. And so it usually doesn't have what everyone wants. So 12 wouldn't shock me. 12, 13, I think. But I don't think, you know, if you think about that,

it may run away from here. It may drop even further. These are very broad-stroked indicators. But it's probably not a bad time to dollar cost in. If Binance collapses, yeah, well, that's a nuclear winter, right? Holy shit. I would have said that about FT nuclear winter right um holy shit um i would have said that i would have said that about ftx right if ftx collapses nuclear winter and here we are a thousand below that range we were

talking about it's really not as bad as it seems oh it's um yeah yeah it's um it's i mean you know with ftx there was on-chain evidence that this thing would... Talk about that. That was the title of the stream anyways, so I forgot because I'm 88. But yeah, let's talk about that. Let me get into Glassnode. Yeah. I mean, I trade on FTX, right? It's where I like to trade.

I got to hand it to SBF. Is that, like, okay he he stole a lot of money that wasn't his um but the exchange itself he built a good product that's the problem is that it's uh he built a good enough product to get everyone on there right before stealing their funds and collapsing it so it's kind of the worst case scenario that combination just got greedy um just got very greedy um i mean if he'd stayed in the long run and didn't do the greedy stuff i mean he would have the best um exchange out there to use um can you see my screen again okay let's go to exchange um balance right and here we go so these are all the coins on exchanges everyone's getting the coins

off the exchanges right now let's zoom into ftx this is bitcoin only right now um you have to go on to crypto quant i think to get the stable coins stable coins. So this is the run on the bank here, right? This is like everyone getting the fuck out, right? But you'll notice that there was also this trend down and also what the hell happened here, right? I saw this and I thought, is this an error in FTX's labeling on Glassnode or something? It just didn't make sense. They'd been building up the stockpile of Bitcoin, you know, as they won more and more trust. This is all of our customer funds on that exchange.

And then suddenly, as three arrows collapses, 55,000 of their 120,000, 130,000 Bitcoins got withdrawn. And I think SBF, see, we're doing a bit of cold storage movement here. Nothing to be worried about. No one called them out on it. I thought it was maybe this move to a new labels that were still FDF. You see this sometimes as you see right moving from one exchange from an exchange wallet to another and nobody knows the new wallet right yeah right but um glassnode didn't pick that up right um but they they maintained that it went

out of the exchange um so so no one actually called it out. And after that point, so what happened there, right? It's like, did Alameda need to plug a hole in their books after 3AC collapsed? But after that, look at this. This is like a constant trend downward with Bitcoin reserves. Like the guys that know knew that FTX was not good and there was a constant withdrawal. So as the FUD was happening on Twitter I was taking a look at this chart and I'm like this does not look good. I'm like I think I got all of my stuff out of all my Bitcoins out of ftx um and when they had like 6 400 bitcoins left like um down down this this region here um so anyway um that that was that was that there was basically he lied said we're just you

know moving some things to cold storage but clearly that was there i mean now all of the speculation which seems somewhat clear is that alameda blew up and basically it was probably moving the coins to alameda or something to try to prop them up yeah exactly and and now we were like looking gee who you know of course we we looked at everything else now and all the other exchanges in the industry and it's like who's who's good for the money and um immediately we're seeing proof of reserves uh binance start to come out with this um and yeah i noticed they haven't disclosed the liabilities on their proof of assets so it's only half of it yesterday yeah it's a bit crazy how do we know that these are ftx addresses and not retail wallets how do they identify this you said that sometimes they don't know if it's a new addresses and not retail wallets. How do they identify this? You said that

sometimes they don't know if it's a new wallet and you see these sort of trends in Glassnode. How does Glassnode actually identify an exchange wallet? They use a third party as part of it. And then on top of that, they add their forensics clustering type algorithm on it. So they already have an automatic algorithm that's looking at all addresses across the network and clustering that just based on interactions between the wallet addresses. And you can see they resolve into clusters of entities, meaning that this wallet likely belongs to this known cluster

or this person or this exchange because of the interactions and so it doesn't take long for the interactions between those coins to start to give away telltale signs that it is belonging to a previously known entity so that layer helps them resolve this and then there's an army of um of of people in the industry that are you know labeling they're labeling um different addresses as this is um ftx this isn't we know this because you know i deposited funds here and right that's the address and so different different you know you can you can actually just fire small deposits into the exchanges and um you'll see it arrive and from there you can kind of build up a picture and cluster it together so yeah um did people know alameda's addresses

because that would have been really helpful right if we saw this massive movement out and it was at alameda addresses but then again he could just say it's cold storage and people probably wouldn't be able to differentiate i think chain analysis would have a really good read on it. I don't know if they've come out with anything. It'd be really good to see if Glassnode could do something like this or even CryptoQuant. But I haven't seen any of that data come out. But yeah, I mean, right now it's like,

it feels very much like most of this price didn't only say Binance blows up. I noticed that Binance, um, you know, Sefu fund is, um, you know, it was a hundred, one billion. I think it's about 800 million. The last I checked. Yeah. I think they were saying they were going to push it to 2 billion, but I don't want to

quote, be quoted on that, but I know they are looking to increase that yeah i mean it's um if you look at it right now with like 800 million backing um 68 billion dollars of assets um and then you take into account and over 40 percent of it is highly correlated in bnb tokens and um the other bit is I think 68% is both BNB and BTC like if Binance goes under like there's a there's a major hole in that that that in their balance sheet like their their their insurance fund is like 68% correlated being Bitcoin and BNB. So you might say maybe 250, 300 million of it is solid, as in US dollar. It's nothing. Right, it's like 50 basis points.

It's like half a percent or less of assets under management is backed by the SAFU fund. Right, so a Bitcoin crash or somebody targeting BNB in the same way that CZ effectively targeted FTT token could cause a similar situation by that rationale. I mean, I don't think it would. I think they're bigger. And I mean, listen, if that happens now after they've seen it and he did it basically like was able to send one tweet and do it, you'd have to think they're prepared for something like that well bftx was a very different um kettle of fish because they they pulled all those funds out and then it was on alamator's balance sheet and they had all this leverage secured on ftt token um this would be the case only if binance um collateralized um with bnb token taking huge leverage and risks you know they own 40% of the BNB

like I don't know what it is actually that well they haven't sold their 40% on the the creation of that token so there's a lot of money there that's in BNB tokens that they're sitting on and you know obviously the the plugging plugging that into the Sifu fund to give us a psychological sense that it's a big billion dollars. You know, if they're going to bring it to two billion, what are they going to fill it with? Is it going to be more of their stockpile of BNB? You know, and so that's the big question is like,

what is actually inside of this stuff? Like, you know, C cz said that um they never use bnb to collateralize um but they're definitely using it as collateral inside the sifu um fund and so they're not borrowing against it doesn't mean they're not using it right yeah it's still collateral right it's collateral it's like in the case of a liability which is we're going to pay out um to to people losing money on binance exchange um that's the collateral that they're going to have to sell um so that's the liability so um i mean it's it's not it's not i mean this has been a good thing i think the whole industry is starting to clean up

and everyone's looking into the risks involved with the counterparties. So that's a good thing. And, you know, I look at this as, wow, crypto had its 2008 unwind. You know, it's like with what happened with banking and TradFi in 2008, we learned that lesson very quickly the moment

we could get leverage in the system. And, you know, I remember leverage in the system only came about starting with BitMEX in 2018. That was the first time we get significant leverage in our ecosystem. So it's only in this bull market that we had significant leverage that built up. And the first time we could get leverage in the system, look at what happened. We did everything in this industry. The players, the institutions at least, did not we, but the institutions did everything that they could to take crazy risks,

just like banks did in 2008, leading up to 2008. So, you know, it's a good lesson. Hopefully we move on from this and learn these lessons and build a more, you know, legit, more rock solid industry from here. Before we go, so obviously you saw this massive move of coins leaving FTX in, it looked like May, kind of June, and it was a steady downtrend from them. At one point that actually sparked you to say, shit, I'm removing my own coins from this exchange just in case. Are you seeing anything else like that from any other entities at the moment that

would be fair warning to people or does everything look somewhat kosher at the moment? Not really. I haven't seen that. If anything, the other exchanges are getting more collateral or more user funds. Binance is climbing. That's the main one. yeah like bitfinex are climbing like kraken's kraken oh interestingly kraken is i'm just looking at it now um kraken's dropped a lot in bitcoin oh that's interesting um i would have thought they would gain because of their proof of reserves they're more of a trusted player so I don't know what's going on there maybe they

can tell us what's happening but yeah like Coinbase has dropped it could just be a lot of confidence has left the market and everyone's pulled into cold storage. Right. So you're seeing retail pulling their coins off, but not necessarily the exchange itself

sending them away. Yeah, no. Well, we don't know what's happening, right? We've got to make a guess or build a thesis around it. Kraken's following a very similar pattern to, well, let me just share the screen again. Maybe someone can take a look at that. But like, here we go. This is Kraken. It's very similar. A lot of coins came out of there.

Very similar to FTX actually. I wonder if that's just not that just could be the clients that are pulling to plug holes in their balance sheet institutions. We had the same sort of grind down and then a drop here now. I mean, they've still got 90,000 Bitcoins in there, but there was a high of double there when they were good. So I don't know what's happening there. And that just could be retail. I'm going to go to hourly resolution. Interesting, because it feels like Kraken's actually been one of the winners as far as perception.

I think that people view them as safe. They like how Jesse Powell has approached this. So I'm actually a bit surprised to see them riding that same trend. Yeah, I mean, let's have a look. I'm just going to pull hourly resolution which is obviously 24 times more data it's a bit slow um here we go just gonna see if it's smooth it's it's smooth yeah and that is relatively smooth that's like right it's not a straight line yeah it's not one one massive wick um so that could just be clients um just getting coins off exchanges

yeah um so yeah i mean yeah the ftx was basically like a straight line down yeah i might knew well that was the bank run that was yeah that's a that's a bit aggressive yeah oh man yeah and yeah it's even way more aggressive back there at that same time frame. Yeah, that's quite, I mean, that's a quite aggressive withdrawal there. Yeah, very sort of jagged drops down. Yeah, big step changes down and big chunks for FTX. So that move was done by big withdrawals one after the other,

whereas Kraken was smooth. So that could be just, yeah, so all right. And maybe if we look at Kraken. Do you look at them together? Like, yeah, we, um do you look at them together like yeah we i can't superimpose them on the same chart i'd have to set up the work bench to do it might take a little time but um that's way smoother i mean that's not even yeah no that's that's that looks okay but yeah anyway um it's interesting how it follows price as the price goes down people get more scared remove their coins from exchanges um alongside the news it almost looks like a price

chart wasn't always that way though there's times when those are sort of opposing at the top you know in the bull market you're like uh very much like you know shit coin trading yeah you ride the trend and all your coins are on the exchange because you're actually trading them yeah and then now you just pull them into cold storage and forget about it for a year and come back to it um which is probably the best move in a bear market um go on holiday a bit um so yeah i think that's what everyone's doing is there a way that like on-chain analysis could have showed us that customer funds were being misused or is it just cannot get that granular

um i mean it's a i mean from these kind of charts you can't tell right but um sure you can get granular like you could say these funds left ftx and it went to you know a labeled address that was alimator and um it's like a massive amount of coins that are customer funds and you can say that's way too big to be just their own collateral and so you can do it that way we obviously can do this with ethereum as well um so yeah you can um it takes a lot of granular work and detective work um so um and i guess nobody did that work um now but i hope that maybe we'll do it in the future now that we've learned those lessons, which is why it's worth asking the questions like,

what did we miss? And so we can look for it. Right. I just think that no one wanted to call out FTX or SBF because, you know, particularly the institutions that would have had, had knowledge of this. They killed themselves like suicide.

Yeah. Right. It's, it's not in their vested interest to call them out um if dx survives they're going to be on the back end of any deal um so you know it all took to like one article on coinbase that that really started it and one person did call it out and that was cz um and that unwound it so scary to me the power of a single tweet and uh in this space it's like what's happened was that i mean the guy literally didn't even have to sell anything right then he came then cz came back said we're not actually selling our ftt right yeah right so just the idea that they could possibly collapse it was enough to send the bank run and it's crazy. The fact that SBF gave like when they bought back the shares, the 10% equity from Binance,

the fact that he did it with FTT token tells you that they weren't solvent right they didn't have cash and why would they give them FTT tokens why would you give your arch enemy the power to dump you when it didn't make sense unless your back is to the wall yeah it's the only money you can give and you can print more so hey free money yeah right so yeah but that because he was essentially sending um giving um cz the keys to destroy ftx and that deal right like he knew that he was levered long um and fdt needed to be above as we know 22 now um and if it dropped below that he's kind of margin called yeah he gave his arch enemy um you know was a half a billion dollars ft token that could be dumped at any time it's like didn't view him as an enemy at the time and then uh poked poked the wrong poked the wrong

dragon there i would say i mean it's it just it's crazy for such a smart guy to see in retrospect all the absolutely stupid things that spf did well it's like back to the wall right back to the wall and you could see it in his jitteriness as he was taking more and more amphetamines um near the end of it um as we we we can guess um so yeah one one thing led to the next to the next wow man what a shit show well listen the good news is i think that a lot of indicators say that we are bottoming and hopefully we've learned some lessons and can look for signs of similar things happening in the future i don't have so much faith in humans but maybe at least i can have faith in talented on-chain analysts so we'll be helping willie first of all before i let you go where can everybody follow you obviously woo nomic

on twitter but uh and check out everything that you've got going on yeah thanks that's it really just go to the twitter and that's it really what a humble guy he's got a lot more going on than a twitter account guys but you can find it all on there. Willie, man, thank you very so much for coming out of retirement, I guess, for a little while. I know you haven't done this in quite a bit. It's always a pleasure. And sometimes I miss your responses to my tweets that are so amazing because I don't check replies with all the bots. But every time, man, I literally laugh out loud every single time you respond.

I love your beer market humor it's like we've got to do something during this time right that's my coping mechanism right and people don't realize that it's like sarcasm which makes it even more fun the best one i you know when i joked that uh the best i think i can't remember the exact tweet but you obviously know it where i recently said you know time is your most important asset so you shouldn't have kids. Everyone. I thought everyone knew that I have kids and I love my children, but literally everyone thought I was serious.

And then you responded that it was actually love and time. And then you closed with, so you should spend your time on Coke and hookers and not kids. I literally died. Yeah. So funny. So funny. So bad. Thank you very much. I look forward. You're welcome back anytime. And everyone else, we back tomorrow morning at 9 30 AM Eastern standard time. We have our round table and nothing's confirmed yet, but we might have some very, very unexpected special guests.

So you guys should tune in for that. Willie, thank you once again, everybody else. Thank you for being here. I'll see you at 9 30 AM tomorrow. Peace guys. Catch you Scott. everybody else thank you for being here i'll see you at 9 30 a.m tomorrow peace guys catch your scott let's go