The Wolf Of All Streets - Gary Gensler’s Final Countdown | Bitcoin Hits The $90K Ceiling – Will It Soar Or Sink?

Episode Date: November 13, 2024

I am joined by James Murphy aka the MetaLawMan as we break down the latest in crypto, regulation, politics and Gary Gensler's future.  Chris Inks will join us in the second part to share some interesting trades in crypto and beyond.  James Murphy: https://x.com/MetaLawMan Chris Inks: https://twitter.com/TXWestCapital ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEKDAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/   ►► The Arch Public Unleash algorithmic trading. Discover how algorithms used by hedge-funds are now accessible to traders looking for unparalleled insights and opportunities!  👉https://thearchpublic.com/  ►►TRADING ALPHA READY TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS? THE BEST TRADERS IN CRYPTO ARE RELYING ON THESE INDICATORS TO MAKE TRADES. Use code '10OFF' for a 10% discount. 👉https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker  Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://x.com/scottmelker Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.com/ Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe   Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c   #Bitcoin #Crypto #Doge The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

Do you hear that sound? If you listen carefully enough, you can hear the sound of Gary Gensler's tears as he licks his wounds and prepares to be ousted as chairman of the SEC. It's a sound that many of us here have been waiting years and years to hear, and knowing that one way or another he is going to be gone in the not so distant future is exceptionally satisfying. I'm going to talk about what the path for Gary Gensler looks like with today's amazing guest, James Murphy, aka Metta Lawman. We're also going to talk about Elizabeth Warren's new position in the Senate, what that means, and of course, Donald Trump's agency, the Doge. We've got a lot to discuss, guys. Let's go. What is up, everybody? I'm Scott Melker, also known as the Wolf of Wall Street. Before we Let's go. know and uh your little speaker and maybe you can hear the sound of gensler crying i mean this guy's gone right yeah um correct me if i'm wrong scott were you the guy who initiated the hashtag fire gary gensler was that you and to my knowledge i'm the first person who ever did it myself and then

like immediately because we were having him on spaces i think it was warren davidson the congressman who also started tweeting it. And then I think Patrick McHenry and Emmer and everybody started using it and went wildly viral. So listen, you had sent a tweet on October 29th before Trump won sort of conjecture as to what would happen if Trump got the victory. Gary Gensler resigns promptly. That's obviously tradition. Trump asked for resignation on day one. He complies. Three, Trump replaces Gensler as SEC chairman, but allows him to continue as a commissioner. Four, Trump fires Gensler and he leaves the SEC. Five, Trump fires Gensler. Gensler refuses to leave and sues in federal court, arguing they have some legal right to remain

as a commissioner, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. And then we know what's obviously happened in the past. Everybody stepped aside when there was a new administration. So do we really think that Gary Gensler might step up here and sue to keep his job when nobody wants him? Well, I hope not. It would reflect poorly, of course, on himself as well as the SEC as an institution. So he knows what the right thing to do is. Am I confident that he will do that right thing? I'm not. I think there are a lot of meetings going on in Washington right now talking about what can we do to stop the agenda of the incoming administration to throw some sand in the gears. And they're coming up with all sorts of creative tactics and we're going to see them soon. And it could be that this is one of them that you just

hold out and engage in litigation about whether you can keep your seat at the SEC. I sincerely hope that's not the way he chooses to go. But if he does go that way, I believe he will lose in time. Right. So Eleanor Tarrant had a take here, obviously. Trump would likely take it to the courts if Gary Gensler doesn't go willingly, and he would then be paying legal fees out of his own pocket. So that's not an ideal scenario, obviously, I think, for Gary Gensler. But let's talk about those things that they could do right now, because I think that that's worthy of conversation, right? I think, obviously obviously the SEC could bring more enforcement actions, although it seems pretty, pretty dull attempt there, knowing that those would likely just be canceled by the next SEC

commissioner. They could sell all the Silk Road Bitcoin, not the SEC specifically, but the United States government so that there is no Bitcoin for a strategic reserve by the time Trump comes into power. What else could they theoretically do to basically be sore losers and throw something in the spokes here? Well, across the whole government, there's a lot they can do. But within the SEC itself, pretty much anything they do can be undone. If they pass a rule, you can withdraw the rule. If they pass guidance, you can withdraw the guidance. If they file a lawsuit, you can dismiss the lawsuit when the new regime comes in. So yeah, you could see some flailing of arms, you know, trying to, you know, with one last gasp, make some headlines, but it's pretty

easy to undo the stuff that the SEC could get done in the next couple of months. So what happens to the existing enforcement actions? Do we think that they just disappear into the ether? They're never pursued. Legally, do they have to cancel it? They can just not pursue it? I mean, what does that actually look like when you have a lawsuit that's in action already and we get administrative change and there's no appetite to pursue? Well, there are a few things that could happen. One is a unilateral voluntary dismissal of a case by the SEC. And once there are, you know, once Trump gets in a new commissioner and picks a chairman, either that new commissioner or Hester Peirce or Ueda, any of those three, then you've got a majority and you can pretty

much do whatever you want. I think we know that Hester Person and Ueda do not support the crypto onslaught, do not support the cases. We don't get to see the vote on authorizing cases until after the case is resolved. That's a little known fact. And then you learn, well, who was for it and against it at the time? But in any event, I do believe that the group of three, their philosophy will be that crypto tokens traded on exchanges are not securities. And so that would impact all of the exchange cases, Coinbase, Binance, Kraken, other cases. And it would impact, I think, Ripple, because what's being appealed were sales of XRP by the company and individuals in the officer capacities

at Ripple selling XRP on exchanges. And that probably gets swept up into, we don't believe in that anymore. And so I would expect those cases will either be withdrawn voluntarily or maybe settled. The Ripple one is very, very interesting. They've had to escrow $125 million. So I think for the XRP holders out there, it's somewhat interesting. Is that in play for a negotiation to get some of that money back? Or are they just going to say, all right, let's call it quits. Give me the 125 and we dismiss everything.

But in general, we're going to have a very different direction in the crypto space, a rejection of regulation by enforcement. And it could very well be that there are no more enforcement cases until such time as Congress has decided what the market structure is and what the rules are going to be determining which token is a security and which is a commodity. So how do they determine that? That's the next big question I think that's coming is what happens? The lawsuits are one thing, right? We know that Coinbase and others are being sued for unregistered securities, unlawful unregistered securities. We have Trump obviously launching his very own unregistered unlawful

securities right now. So I think we know what direction that will go in. But do you think that we can get some clarity on exactly what these assets are? Or do you think we'll just get this sort of sweeping sentiment that Americans can do what they want and just ignore it for now? The problem is, if we don't get really good legislation in four years, if the pendulum swings, we could be right back to where we are now without clarity. Yes, let's hope not. I mean, the good news is there are a lot of examples around the world that, you know, they can pull off the shelf and look at MECA and, you know, the rules in Hong Kong, Australia, Kazakhstan, you know, wherever.

There are plenty of sets of, you know of rule books on what's a security, what's a commodity, and what exchanges need to do in order to register under a new regime for trading of tokens. My problem with FIT21, the version that passed the House and was never really taken up in the Senate, is that it makes this distinction between a security and a commodity using a test of is it sufficiently decentralized. And then it articulates a bunch of tests to determine what's sufficiently decentralized and what is not. And as we all know, that is subject to, where there could be somebody behind another person who

is voting with governance tokens or whatever it might be. I think that is not a good approach. That's what passed the House. I think a better approach would simply be a bright line test that says if a token does not give the holder an ownership interest in the underlying project or the right to receive dividends from the underlying project, that means it is not a security. It's a commodity. And so right there, if we had a simple test like that, which by the way, Scott, that aligns what I just said, aligns with 100 years of securities laws. It goes back before the SEC was ever started. That was pretty much the rule of what you need for an investment contract. And so I'm hopeful that we can get a better, cleaner, more understandable rule where people aren't running to court to say,

I am decentralized. And the SEC says, not as far as we're concerned, you're not. And we're right back in the same soup that we're trying to get out of. So I'm hopeful we can change that. Yeah. I mean, Hester Peirce has long floated the idea of safe harbor, basically a three-year period to become sufficiently decentralized by very defined rules, which seems like a very logical approach to something like this and would give people the time they needed to basically become compliant, but also give them the ability to launch something and be innovative and be entrepreneurs in the United States in that process. It's so logical. It's astounding. But of course, we haven't done anything like that yet. I have to talk to you about Elizabeth Warren.

You obviously were leading the charge behind John Deaton. You have the t-shirt John Deaton for US Senate back there. He did exceptionally well. He didn't win, but way outperformed expectations. But that still left us with this wonderful person, Elizabeth Warren over here, who now will be the top Democrat on the banking panel. So we were all cheered, obviously, that Bernie Moreno beat Sherrod Brown for the Senate seat. But now the kind of backlash of that from the Democratic Party is that we get her instead of him as the top Democrat. But again, she will not be the chair because she's not of the majority party. But what does this mean? Is this a problem? No, I don't think so. I think people were terrified of Senator Warren

for a while, and that is over. The majority sets the terms of the debate and sets the agenda and will determine what's going to happen, um, in the Senate. And the one, one thing we observed Scott, even before the election on some of these votes we had on the SAB 121, uh, nobody was listening to her, you know, the younger people in the Democratic Party on both sides, the House and the Senate, are just not interested anymore in her views on, you know, this topic and innovation in general. So I don't think there's much to fear anymore from Elizabeth Warren. she will not be very relevant to the debate in terms of what kind of legislation we can get through the Senate to establish clear rules for the crypto industry. It's going to be a miserable time for her on that committee, it sounds like. Yeah, it sure will. Screaming into the mist with nobody listening. Right, right. And as far as John, you asked about John, you know, he did fantastic. If you put it all in context, I think when John announced that he was running for Senate, maybe 1,000 people in the entire state of Massachusetts had any idea who John Deaton was. to 40.4% of the vote is amazing. It is far better than elected Republican officials

in Massachusetts have done in the last few Senate contests. They've been beaten by like 33%. And John lost by 19%. And the reason was, you know, what I say to people is I was very right about one thing, and I was very wrong about another thing. What I was very right about was if John gets his story, his life story, and his message out to the voters, he will win. And that was proven time and time again as Democrats from all over the place were embracing John and what he stood for. And in the end, Scott, I don't know if you know this, he got over 100,000 votes from people who went in to vote for Kamala Harris.

So they pulled the lever for Kamala Harris and for John. So he was effective in reaching across. What I was very wrong about was, I thought when we were able to raise substantial funds, million dollars from Ripple and a million from Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, I thought a wall of money would come in to make the thing more competitive. In the end, Warren spent $25 million on her campaign to get reelected,

and John and groups supporting him spent $3.5 million. If we had had 20 million, he would have won because think about with 19%, all he had to do was switch 10%, you know, of the Warren supporters, flip them to him and he wins just had to get 10. Um, and he didn't have the money, you know, to, to be on, uh, you know, to be on, you know, putting on TV commercials on WBZ and all over the state constantly like she did. And so anyway, it is what it is. We did the best we could with the resources we had. But I'm telling you, you know, I would have given you the bat signal, Scott, you need to come up to Boston for November 5 if we had gotten that money and were able to put on a media blitz. And finally, I just want to say thank you to you and to other influencers who really stepped up and helped John get his message out. I thought that last interview you did with him before the election

was kind of the best thing I've seen in terms of drawing out, you know, who John is and what he believes in and what he stands for. That was phenomenal. And, you know, we had a good time. I mean, we had that great event down in Austin at the consensus thing. You brought Mario in, you know, it was just an enormous amount of fun. One of the campaigns for president, their brand was Joy. Well, I can tell you that Deaton campaign was very joyful. And the party that we had the night of the election returns, there was no crying or anything. People were happy. We're kind of jubilant. But John really had defeated that anti-crypto army. I mean, it's not even discussed anymore. Nobody talks about it.

Let's talk about that, though. On 3-29-23, this is your tweet. Senator Warren announced the formation of her anti-crypto army to wage war against the crypto industry and investors. Prices on that date, Coinbase stock was 67, Bitcoin 28,000, crypto market cap 1.1 trillion. Today, Coin 214, Bitcoin, this is when you tweeted this, by the way, it was on October 30th.

So now Coin is like 300, which is insane, right? Bitcoin hit 90,000 and crypto market cap hit 3 trillion, not 2.4 trillion. That should give you guys some perspective of where we were,

you know, two weeks ago and how much uh this is better but i mean talk about every metric you could possibly look at to see whether she failed and you could arguably say she's sitting on that island alone on that senate committee because of her anti-crypto stance whether she took or lost to john you could make a very clear argument that this was the linchpin in the very close losses in any race where the crypto industry was heavily backing. I mean, I think it was fair shake, 50 of the 54 candidates they backed won. Yeah. Something like that.

Yeah. You know, it was unfortunate that the Republican senatorial campaign committee didn't give John any money and he didn't get any money from Fair Shake. But, you know, people get to spend. It's their money, you know, so they get to do what they want to do. I wish that we had, you know, a competitive amount of money against her. But, Scott, there are people who are really pissed at her because if it wouldn't have been for that declaration of war, there would have been no war chest for the industry. You and I know, everybody knows, including you and I, that if you're into crypto, it's in your nature to not really want to be involved in politics.

You know what I mean? John didn't want to be involved in politics. He felt compelled to challenge Elizabeth Warren because she was so anti-innovation, anti-freedom. But all of that money was raised and the money, you know, of the crypto industry to go after anti-crypto. And she's sitting there in a quote unquote safe seat in Massachusetts. But the rest of them, you know, many of them just got steamrolled from, you know, Fair Shake and the Stand With Crypto team. And, you know, the rest of us are unaffiliated, but know, Fair Shake and the Stand With Crypto team and, you know, the rest of us who are unaffiliated but know what's important. Yeah. I mean, as bad as the last four years were, there's a degree of gratitude that we should have for Elizabeth Warren and Gary Gensler.

I mean, if they don't push as hard as they did, the pendulum does not swing back so aggressively against them, to your point. This industry would have never felt so compelled, as you said, to be political, and the wall of money would not have come in. Sadly, it didn't come in for John, but it certainly came in for Bernie Moreno. Right. Absolutely. Absolutely. And so now, you know, with the new SEC, I think you and I talked about crypto enforcement, but I think there are a lot of changes that are going to come going to come in at the, at the SEC. Is that something you want to talk about or? Well, first listen, just as one change, right? We have very anecdotal evidence here of the position of companies that

were targeted by the SEC or living in fear because we know Robinhood had delisted the number of assets based on those passive namings and enforcement actions. If you guys remember when the SEC came after Binance and Coinbase and anyone else, they would just list seven or eight tokens that they viewed as unregistered securities. It seemed like they were just throwing darts at an altcoin chart to see what they would name that day. A lot of those were Solana and ADA, obviously XRP. Well, Robinhood making a statement here that they're relisting all of these. There's been no law or statement from the SEC that would make them think that anything has changed. So clearly the thing has changed is that they're not going to live in fear of the SEC or

certainly the next iteration of the SEC. Yeah, exactly. And for that reason, I mean, the regulatory uncertainty, that dark cloud over the industry will be removed, but we really do need the legislation passed to fully remove it. When that happens, I think we're going to see some M&A activity. I think there are some companies that would love to be able to access the U.S. capital markets and go public. I think there's kind of one public company, big public company in the space that has a lot of... whose market cap has skyrocketed recently. And so they have this currency now called their stock, where you could imagine that they start finding deals, accretive deals, and act like a Facebook or a Google that looks for accretive deals and does deals every single week using their stock as the currency to acquire companies that are innovative. Coinbase could obviously do that. I think we'll see them doing that.

That's who you're mentioning, I think. But we've also seen actually more quietly and not with stock, but Tether because of just the massive earnings they've made investing in all kinds of industries quietly and acquiring companies. And we recently saw a billion dollar unicorn purchase of a company. I think it was by Striper. Now my brain is not working. But yeah, I mean, we're starting to see it. And when we have an administration that's more friendly to mergers and acquisitions, it's going to be happening all across the board. These companies are going to be properly valued and we're going to see a lot of action. And a lot of that is going to happen because of the Doge, guys. We all know, let me find the best one here. But here it is. Doge will soon begin crowdsourcing examples of government waste, fraud, abuse.

Americans voted for drastic government reform. They deserve to be part of fixing it. Imagine that you can just tweet into Vivek and send an idea for what we can cut the government. But here it is, guys. I mean, in a presidential statement, we literally have Doge right here written. It's going to be headed by Elon Musk. And Vivek Ramaswamy. And these guys, I mean, they're going to take, for better or for worse, the government's going on the chopping block here.

And that's going to make for, that's going to be a lot of chopping at regulators. So there's going to be a lot of activity coming. That's right. And so as far as the SEC is concerned, they're going to need a chairman who will go along. You know, you got to be part of this. You don't get exempted from this. So there's going to have to be some slimming down at every regulator, including the SEC. And so their mandate, you know, should slim down as well as their resources are slimmed down if that happens. But there's a lot of good stuff that should happen. I mean, the loss of trust and credibility at the SEC over the last three and a half years has really been bad. They need to rebuild that because the normal interaction with the SEC is you would counsel a client, yes, let's go in and talk to the SEC about this issue or this product that we're rolling out or whatever. And now we know it was just a gotcha regime with Gary. And so they need to earn that trust back.

They need to deliver on their inspector general report into the conflicts of interest of Hinman and Heathgate. They've been promising that thing that it was almost done in February. They need to deliver on that. They need to start complying. All agencies of the government, there needs to be a directive from the president, start complying with FOIA requests and stop stonewalling them and making people go to court to get documents. We believe in transparency here. You know, these sorts of things. And, you know, instead of this adversarial relationship where the chairman of the SEC gets roasted by Richie Torres

every time he shows up in the House, what needs to happen is that the chairman goes in there and says, hey, we want to work with you to get legislation through. We've got some ideas. Let my staff work with your staff on the particulars. Let's move this ball forward instead of just saying no. When Gary sent out that memo, everybody, please vote no on repeal of SAB 121. Vote no on FIT 21 with Elizabeth Warren, you know, that needs to stop. And the attitude needs to be, we want, we're here to help. We're experts in this area.

We have some ideas. Let's move this ball forward legislatively. Yeah. It's going to be just an incredibly strange four years, but there's going to be good. There's going to be bad. I think everybody here is generally for you know handicapping some of the regulation by enforcement i'm not sure everyone is here uh to see all regulation eliminated and so i think there's going to be an interesting needle

to thread there for this government and you know but i think it's going to be very good for crypto regardless an industry that's been so aggressively litigated against and so aggressively regulated by enforcement. Look, the market is a great barometer, and we see what the market has done. Speaking of markets, polymarket nailed, I think, every one of the battleground states. The pollsters got them all wrong, or virtually all of them wrong. So markets are an amazing mechanism, and they're signaling to us that this change is going to be good. And what I will say, and this is going to sound very cynical

only because it is, and that is I've never gone wrong betting on politicians acting in their own personal interest. Pompliano yesterday said, I'm telling you, Trump himself owns Bitcoin. We know everybody around him owns Bitcoin. Robert Kennedy Jr. went from, I bought like one Bitcoin for each of my children to the vast majority of my net worth is now in bitcoin uh so i trust these people to act in their own best interest that's what i said man if you're the most cynical view is trump has four nft projects and world liberty financial whatever you know uh i don't think he's to put us in an environment where those things are considered illegal or wrong. And I think that those things are all likely to go up. It's absolutely

pretty astounding here, man. Thank you so much. I can't believe we just ran up against time. I had a lot more questions, but guys follow metal law, man, of course, for insight on all of this, it's going to be exciting and we're going to have a lot more to talk about in the coming months. Thanks, Scott. Thanks for having me on. It's always fun. Thanks, James. All right, guys. I can't think of a better person to bring on after James when we just once again tapped $90,000 on Bitcoin. 90K all day. I'm saying all day. And then the people who are very particular are going to say, it wasn't all day, man. It went below it. People are going to be people, right? But here we are, man. And it's interesting. I mean, take a very brief look at that chart I

just brought up and we'll bring up yours, obviously. I mean, we had this huge day, obviously the biggest day in Bitcoin history on Monday by price, not by obviously by percentage. Then made a new all time high again the next day. Big dip had people freaking out. Eighty five thousand. I think it went below eighty five on some exchanges bought up today. A dip all the way down to eighty six thousand immediately bought up and now pushing yet another new all-time high at 90,180 as we speak. The buying demand here is insane. And the story of the day, which I will not stop

repeating, is that there was a billion dollars liquidated on that huge candle and half of those were longs. Imagine being long and losing all of your money on the best performing days in Bitcoin history. I just, I can't, I'm going to say it every day. Just be so careful with leverage, you guys. I think I called everybody donkeys yesterday on spaces. If Bitcoin is now $90,666, but I mean, this thing is flying. If you're getting liquidated being long, I don't know, man, seems like you'd just buy some Bitcoin and wait. Yeah, exactly. And that's not a bad idea overall. I've been talking about it time and time again, especially since the beginning of this year when the ETFs were

approved. And I said, listen, even if you're a trader, you should have a bag of Bitcoin that you just kind of sit there and you don't touch. Not in the same wallet, different wallets you're not tempted to jump into or whatever. And you just, you sit there and you don't touch not in the same wallet, different wallets, you're not tempted to jump into whatever and you just, you know, you gradually add to that throughout the year and you just you don't touch it because with the ETFs coming in, you know, this move was incoming. I mean, a lot of people kind of doubted it. A lot of people were, you know, kind of silly. They're the normal retail traders that we get every cycle, not just in crypto, but in any market, you know, and they come in and it's hard for them to see, you know, the potential in the movement,

right? So, I mean, it's even like, so, you know, I do spaces with Gary and Samuel there on Mondays and we've been able to have Grant, Grant Cardone's come on quite a bit. And those that don't know, you know, he's got a ridiculous amount of money. And so Gary has been, you know, it's his twin brother. He's been working so Gary, that's his twin brother, he's been working on him. You know, he's been working on him for the last couple of years, getting him in it. And finally, Grant said this past Monday on his face, he's like, damn it. He says, I hate that I was wrong. He says he wishes he had more. Because he could have bought it. He could have bought it at, you know, Gary, we were riding him at 20K.

You know what I mean? I think he said he bought something, you know, in the thirties there. But again, he says he just hates that he was wrong, you know? And I think a lot of people are dealing with that, you know, once price breaks out. So we've had a lot of this sideways over the last, you know, eight months prior to this. And you know, man, we had everybody talk, well, not everybody, but quite a bit of people talking about how it was the top of the cycle. And here's why. 91,000. 91,000 for those keeping up.

I'm going to do the all day updates. But yeah, we had all that, right? And, you know, I did my best to kind of tell people, no, this really price action and volume looks like a reaccumulation. Not too worried about it. Then we had the 49,000 August 5th drop. That was, you know, and I said, man, that's the spring right there. We had a nice retest. People could have got in.

I was trying to tell people to get in there on the September the 6th, right there around, what was that? 52, 53,000. And, you know, it kind of get up and every time I pulled back, you know, I was like, listen, you need to be doing, even the people at our trading academy, man. I was like, listen, guys, once we got to right about um especially we got right here around that 60 000 or so i said listen you know we got a lot of overlapping price actions continuing to go up i wouldn't be trying to sell the tops and buy the bottoms on this i would it's probably a lot better just to hold it as we go through it because at any point this thing could take off and if it does you're gonna have a hard time trying to find the pullback right and here we are i mean we're up there 91 000 now and uh so you know things have been pretty good it's right here off this uh this uh hidden bullish

divergence that pulled back to the daily pivot here uh well it's actually the monthly pivot but you know shows up on the daily so i mean that was the catalyst and it broke out through that ascending support. Couple of days of consolidation, kind of upward consolidation right above it, and then took off again, man. And here we go. Right. So one thing, a couple of things before you jump in, I just want to make a couple of points

because this is bananas. Someone just said it in the chat. Look at Pepe, by the way, on that Robin hood listing, making a new all-time high. The memes are flying. But one thing I just want to note as we dig into this. So Bitcoin obviously is here around 91. When you take a look at dominance though, dominance just made another high. So we did have that really nice altcoin move earlier in the week, but I do still think this is the Bitcoin move, right? And that we need Bitcoin to settle before alt is going to look amazing. And one final thing I just wanted to point out, this is the total market cap of crypto.

Obviously, Bitcoin making new highs. This hasn't yet, but it did tap the $3 trillion top from the last cycle, and we haven't even started. I mean, this is the total market cap is at $3 trillion. That was the top in November of 21. And here we are right back at it and crickets still. I mean, can you imagine if this thing, when this thing goes to- Yeah, when, when. Oh my gosh. Yeah, sorry. I didn't mean to interrupt. I just want to make that point that it's still looking at, alts do look good in a dollar perspective, but if you're trying to beat Bitcoin, it has been a really tough time to do it.

Yeah. And again, the other thing I've been talking about since, you know, since we got this launch with the ETFs is this idea that this cycle is likely to be a bit different than what we've had in the past. You know, it's always been just crypto, right? So it's basically crypto bros. So, you know, you ride Bitcoin up, you cycle out. When you get to a high, you go to the mid caps, you do small caps, you do the micros, come back onto Bitcoin, right? But with the ETF money now, now we've got a new flow of, you know, money coming into Bitcoin. You know, it's beyond just, you know, just the crypto bros, right? And so I think, you know, what we're seeing, I don't know that we get the kind of alt season

that we've always had. We've had alt seasons of types along this last year. You know, memes, meme coins have had their own part of the cycle here already. But I think we have Bitcoin, generally speaking, continue to rally because you're not going to have that into the ETFs and then out and then into the, you know, the shit coins, right? We're not going to be doing that. Uh, you've got your money that goes into the Bitcoin through the ETFs and that's different money than the money that's actually in like, like you and I trade for the most part. Right. So I think there's a good case to be made for us to continue to see Bitcoin actually, you know, moving up higher and all coins moving with it. Um, at some point, you know, especially when we're looking at, you know,

in different sectors of all coins. But I don't know. I'm not saying we can't, but I don't know that we get the same kind of alt season that we're used to where everything just kind of flowed from Bitcoin into that. But I mean, I'm good either way. We just continue, you know, going long and making some money. Right now I've got, based on the height of this pullback here, I've got a local target right there. This is the Bitcoin all-time index chart here, but I've got a $93,054.50 target. And then this target is the same one that we've had since we had this low here. It's based on this pullback. And that's a $94,900. So, you know, we're kind of getting up to that 100,000 psychological level. You know, generally speaking, we should likely get into that 9,500,000 area and

get rejected and have a decent pullback before we break through. But my other thought on this is if we don't, we should likely soar through that and then pull back to it, which means we're going to have to get up, you know, a hundred. We still haven't retested the previous all-time high at 74. Yeah, yeah, exactly. Imagine going to 99, 999, 99 and getting rejected and dropping to 74,000. It's all over. We're dead. And then straight to 120. Well, and that's exactly what would happen,000. It's all over. We're dead. And then straight to 120. Well, and that's exactly what would happen, right? That's exactly the sentiment that we would have. But in terms of Wyckoff, when we're looking at this reaccumulation rate here, we have our jump across the creek, which is just your breakout through this supply, right?

It's your breaking out through resistance. And then a lot of times you'll get what we call a backup to the edge of the creek, which is a retest of that previous resistance as support. So the idea that we would potentially come back down here toward, you know, like 70,000, 74,000 isn't out of the craziness. And this would generally just be a wave one and we'd have a wave two. Now, the crazy thing about that is. If this is just a leading diagonal, so we get a one, two, we get a three, four, and we get a five, right? This throw over here, which by the way, when we get a throw over of a wedge, usually the return is pretty

sharp as well. And what is it? It's because it's big candles, right? There's no real support along the way. So let's say we get that. Let's say we run up toward, um, well, we'll just say 95,000 here and we get that rejection we come all back down here toward oh i don't know uh we got to pull this up here we'll say yeah we'll say right down here i will keep it in people freak out if we put it down to 68 we'll say 73 8 here right yeah 73 8 the last all-time high it hasn't't been, I mean, those levels always get retested, even if it's years later. People never go back to 20 when we've levitated from 20 to 40, all the way up to 65.

We got back to 20. Eventually we got back, yeah. We got back to 20 to retest that previous all-time high. So I'd rather do it now. Yeah, yeah, exactly, exactly. But the cool, I mean, the amazing thing about this is that would be a one and a two, three is 213,745, five will get you up around 274,700. So, you know, I'm, I mean, I welcome a rejection between here and a hundred thousand and a pullback to 73, because I think if we get that, you start looking for reasons to kind of load that boat for that, for that, just that final move through the, uh, the rest of the cycle. So, um, you know, really,

really looking good on Bitcoin there. Um, a lot of excitement. How can you not be excited? Right. Uh, I was looking for a bit for potentially a bit more pullback here when we got the pullback, but it did, you know, it did what I said, which is it hit this resistance area, pulled back, and then broke out. So I would have liked to have seen it go back a bit further. I would have liked to have gotten it around 60, 62 before that. But hey, it is what it is. It just looks good. How can you not be happy today?

Well, I guess if you were along that liquidated, that might be. But I do have a few all charts here, though. So let's take a look at these. I guess if you were along that liquidated, that might be, but, you know. I do have a few all charts here, though. So let's take a look at these. I've got track USD, so TRAC USD. You know, we've got accumulation here. We had a little bit of a spring. We popped out.

We pulled back and retested that resistance and support, and it looks like we're ready to rally back up so getting this rally here gives us a minimum expected wave 503 target up there at around 99.3 cents um and then with the you know the 38-2 pullback and then you know the normal projections we look at that would give us wave five up there about a dollar fourteen so. So right now we're at 75, 76 cents. By the way, if this drops down below the swing low here, that's where you want to put your stop loss. Then, you know, it may, it may pull down further, but it's already pulled back almost 50% on

the fourth wave. So that should be the low there, but you know, you don't just go in without a stop loss, right? Liquidation is not a stop loss guys. I'm sorry. the liquidation numbers always blow my mind because you guys have to realize a billion liquidations is not a billion in losses that's people who didn't use a stop loss and lost the entire position and even putting a stop loss a dollar above your liquidation can save you like 20 based on the inefficiency of the liquidation

engines it's insane yeah yeah don't use liquid no loss. Just let me just throw a bid out there with a hundred X and wherever it liquidates that that's where I've decided I'm taking my bid. It's got to be, it's got to be no liquidations. Everyone with leverage should have a stop loss. Well, and we talk about it all the time. You know, stop losses are important and you get, you still have people out there today saying, Oh no, don't use a stop loss. You're going to lose money. Well, how does that work for you? Ask Caroline. What was she?

How many? 1.5, 1.6 billion dollars in the hole? Because remember that interview she had where she said, oh yeah, well, we don't use stop losses. And there's your result, right? The people that say you lose money when you stop losses don't understand that stop losses are there to tell you that you're wrong. They're there to say, listen, the story that I have,

the reason I have for this going where I think it's going to go is incorrect. The secondary effect is that it saves you money. So when you look at that, instead of just looking at it as a way to save you money, then you start getting, you know, you start going, okay, well, how do I really set my stop loss where it makes sense rather than where i'd love it to be because you know it looks cuter on the money making system position sizing is what matters there yeah people they take a bigger position that doesn't allow them the stop loss that they should rationally have had but hey godspeed continue on hey emotions are tough man especially in trading, right? I've got ProUSD here. Again, this looks like a one, two. This looks like a wave three, nice large candle,

large candle spread, large spike of volume here. Let me zoom this in a little bit. We've got our ABC here coming down. And then we've got this good move. So we're looking for this close back above this pivot here. But based on the height of this pullback, wave five has a target of $2.71 on there. Breaking out above wave B here at $1.8998 is going to add confidence to this count. But yeah, so I guess if we look here,

we can do like a one, two here, get it all in there. Uh, but anyway, so yeah, that's what I'm kind of looking for here. Definitely want to see this thing taken off. You can see that we haven't even broken out of over, uh, oversold here on the six hour we're threatening to cross bullishly on the RSI. So the setup looks good. Again, if we break down below that swing low right there at uh 1.2088 that's going to invalidate the target so your stop loss needs to go you know doesn't need to go any further than that um we've got mina mina mona uh we used to have mina mana and mona which were all very popular tokens that we used to trade in previous cycles so exactly exactly, exactly. Let me see here. There we go.

So this, this one looks good. We're just now kind of peeking out above the wave one here overall, looking for us to rally up here toward a dollar 38 and then minimum a dollar 80 for that wave five that gets us five sub waves up right around the, the previous swing high, which is usually what we look for. So I think that's looking pretty good there as well. We've got KNC USD. Again, we've got this leading diagonal here.

So one, two, three, four, five. We have our ABC coming down. We've broken out above wave B here. So it looks like we should continue up here. Wave three minimum expected. Now, this is always minimum expected. coming down. We've broken out above wave B here. So it looks like we should continue up here. Wave three minimum expected. Now this is always minimum expected. It could go a bit higher, but a 0.77, uh, which would give us then a minimum expected wave five of 0.905. So, uh, you know, the setup looking good there, not that it can't pull back here along the way,

but you know, looking for that move up. The only thing that's going to invalidate that is if we drop below this wave two way down here at a 38.76 cents. Uh, let me see here. IDEX, I stumbled across this one this morning. I think this one's really looking kind of good here. Again, it looks like we've got five waves up, AB, and then 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 here, ending diagonal. And so once again, wave three in progress, we're currently sitting right around 0.0378 cents. Wave three is up there at 0.1178. Wave five minimum expect up there at 0.1619. Breaking out above wave B here at 0.0544 will add confidence to this count um but again dropping below this swing lower we got wave two here at 0.0306 is going to invalidate that count

so you know uh you don't need a stop loss any lower than that that that's as low as you would need it now if you want to go in on a a smaller timeframe and think you're going to get in there maybe and do a closer stop loss that's on you. But if it's dropped below here, definitely should be out of the trade. And I got two more here. I got GST USD. Let me kind of zoom this in a little bit again. Ooh, look at that. You get that right there. Retest. Yeah. Great retest top of the triangle, top of the range. Uh, again, just a very, very nice looking, um, accumulation range

here. Uh, this is our jump across the Creek. This is our backup, the edge of the Creek retesting that resistance as support, um, wave five of one based on the height of this pullback here, uh, has a target of 0.0 was at 0 3 0 8 3 9. Uh, again, breaking out above wave B here at 0.0 2 3 8 4 0 is going to add confidence to this count breaking down below the swing low here at 0.0 1 7 1 3 0 is going to invalidate that count. But the idea is we move up toward this and then we pull back again here. And then, man, you want to, if we get this move up here and the pullback here, you want to be looking for a reason to go long because then wave three is really just going to be, you know, way nice, nice move up. So it'll be the participation wave that you want to be in.

And AVAX, look at AVAX this morning on the four hour here, kind of taken out. You can see right here again, three waves on the pullback. So looking for a breakout above that $35.22 area to add confidence to the count. But if we zoom out here, the bigger picture is that wave three has a target of 5640 wave five minimum expected target of $70 and 15 cents. And again, this just becomes part of you know, this is one two here. This is a

local count. So you know, we're looking to go much higher overall, but locally, this is kind of the movement we're looking to make. And we'll pull back and then we'll be off again, heading more toward this one, two, three up higher. So AVAX really looks like it's kind of setting up there. And that's what I got, man. That's what I got. I love it. I'm just looking right now over here at the Bitcoin gold ratio, and it's breaking out to what looks like new highs, depending on the chart. This one has it at the highest at 37. This one has the highest here at, well, it's by billions.

But yeah, all the people who are claiming that Bitcoin was not outperforming gold, Mike McGlone. I love Mike. But yeah, Bitcoin absolutely took about two or three weeks to break out and now be outperforming gold again on the year by far and making new highs. Pretty crazy. Oh, yeah. Guys, follow TX West Capital on X. Check out everything he's got going on. I got to run.

Get prepared for spaces. Chris, thank you so much. Appreciate it. See you next week, man. Yeah, man. Take care. Let's go.