The Wolf Of All Streets - Get Ready For The Bitcoin & Altcoins Explosion: Here Is When To Expect The Next Rally

Starting point is 00:00:00 The question on the minds of crypto traders and investors is when are alt seasons finally going to happen? When is alt season finally going to happen? When are altcoins finally going to move? When will the boredom end or is it all over for dead altcoins from previous cycles? Well, Arthur Hayes has some very specific ideas we're going to discuss today about when alt season might come and exactly what's going to fuel it and i'm going to discuss that with dan gunsberg one of my favorite guests we're going to dig into that everything else happening in crypto of course the arch public guys on the back half let's go let's go. What is up, everybody? I'm Scott Melker, also known as the Wolf of Wall Street.

Starting point is 00:00:57 Before we get started, please subscribe and hit that like button. Alt season. Is it a myth? It's like the movie Waterworld. Dry land is not a myth. Alt season. Alt season. It's a myth at this point, but he finds dry land at the end.

Starting point is 00:01:15 Will we find alt season, much like Kevin Costner in Waterworld? Don't know what I'm talking about right now. Maybe it's because I'm in a water world at the moment. Dan, is alt season a myth? Will it ever happen again? Is it over? It's been an aberration for, God, since when?

Starting point is 00:01:35 Since 2022? Yeah, I mean, we're supposed to have this four-year cycle. It's supposed to be amazing. But if you actually look at the four-year cycle, alts should be exactly where they are in my opinion fair um you know i think i think um a couple things one the more that you start to see traditional players in this market um you know things are going to move a little more lockstep where you have crypto assets, which kind of has always been, you know, at the far end of the spectrum of risk assets, and then you're going to have alts

Starting point is 00:02:12 like beyond that one. And so as risk assets really start to come back in vogue, you'll probably see more and more capital pushing into alts. I think the other thing is fucking meme coins, man. They've wrecked everything. It's over. I hate them. I'm just kidding.

Starting point is 00:02:36 But they've really taken all of the interest out of what would have been the new token launches and kind of sucked it into the Solana ecosystem. That's just it. It's, you know, are we in it for the tech? It still remains to be seen. I know I've been building it long enough that if I wasn't, you'd think I was crazy, but yeah.

Starting point is 00:03:00 You are literally in it for the tech. But you're building on Solana. I mean, it's worth talking about, right? So all of this Solana ecosystem explosion has to in some way accrue to interest in everything you're building when you're building the underlying plumbing for a lot of this.

Starting point is 00:03:18 It sure does. But, you know, Solana, money in the Solana ecosystem is very hot, number one. And two, again, meme coins. Like, there's been such a push. Look, there's been,

Starting point is 00:03:35 like, I'll take something like Bonk as an example, which I love. The Bonk ecosystem is probably my favorite ecosystem outside of anything hero related. It really, in my opinion, somewhat saved Solana at a very dark time for Solana.

Starting point is 00:03:58 It also spawned a meme coin revolution in Solana of something that I've never seen before. That's the only downside. Everything, I would say there's 100 bullet points on it. 99 of them are positive. The one thing that it spawned such a craze,

Starting point is 00:04:21 I think that into things like Wiff and then Pump.fun just degens you just create your own meme coin I just saw a stat I don't even know if it's true or not

Starting point is 00:04:36 I mean it's on Twitter so it must be true right that was it 1.4% of coins that get created on pump.fun actually bond? And then maybe it was like 0.04% actually, like, maybe get over a million dollar market cap. And like, I mean, basically it sounds like 99% of people, you know, which is like from a Pareto principle standpoint, it's probably pretty accurate.

Starting point is 00:05:12 Like, you know, 1%. Not quite 80-20, but 1%. It's not quite 80-20. Who's going to buy some random dude's coin that he decided to make last night while he was drunk? Exactly. Or it's like the 3 three thousandth coin that he's made um you know sitting up in his two-bedroom in dubai yeah totally okay so let's talk about what arthur hayes had to say because it's kind of the title here and i think it plays actually pretty well into what we're talking about bitcoin and ethereum rally off a sexy shit coin soiree. The guy has such a way

Starting point is 00:05:48 with words. Ahead of election, Arthur Hayes. If you guys have about 17 hours and a Merriam-Webster dictionary, you can read his entire piece here. It does eventually get to crypto at the end. His long form takes long form to another level, but I think we all probably read it. But the core idea here is we're in a period of fiscal dominance. What does he call her? Bad girl, Yellen. Janet Yellen matters a hell of a lot more than the Fed and inevitably coming into election. We're going to see the liquidity cycle of all liquidity cycles in October.

Starting point is 00:06:23 And that is going to lead us into this shit coin soiree. Interestingly, that's exactly what should happen in the four-year cycle, even without that, right? You have the halving in March or April or May, and you wait six months and the summer's terrible. And everybody says it's dead. And then parabolic everything. I mean, it's like the 2021 fractal, right? We had the initial move into Ethereum alts and what they called the DeFi 1.0 at the time.

Starting point is 00:06:58 And then things petered out for the summer. And then maybe it was like October, November. Was it maybe 2020? And. October 1st. I think it was literally October 1st. I seem to remember that everyone was joking about October and the minute October hit, it was like Bitcoin went up five,

Starting point is 00:07:18 6% first day or something and everything followed. Yup. Look, one thing I liked that he said in here uh was this cycle and i'd like to see it uh for for many reasons with defy of you know of getting into um an old season and then he he was saying that he was going to take capital off the table, you know, should this should this hit. And he was saying to move it, he was going to move it into into USDE. But, but moving things into yield bearing assets in DeFi, I think is something that I'd like to see more and more of, um, and more and

Starting point is 00:08:07 more convergence with, with kind of the traditional world moving assets there. Um, I think, I think over the years, it'll get easier and easier to price the risk, the protocol risk of being in these, uh, in these protocols. And obviously you have major hack risk, you have lots of technology risk in it. But when you eventually have yields going down, you're going to need to find places to put that cash in. So far under the risk curve makes a lot of sense into all coins eventually out of all coins into yield bearing assets where

Starting point is 00:08:52 when you're in defy you're going to be getting you're at least going to be getting well above treasuries plus um the the rate that you're going to get for accepting protocol risk which could be pretty but you know for him ethina i mean he is ethina right i mean it's like their lead advisor huge investor so that that was kind of a uh soft shill for his own protocol which obviously we know carries carries some risk but the the overarching idea there i think is the one as well worth discussing which is effectively, which lines with our cycle that we've had every year, every four years is that summer ends. He says September very specifically, he thinks it launches. That's what I've kind of been saying since March.

Starting point is 00:09:35 And then he's out in October. And then when we get the debt ceiling raised in January or February, he's back in, he has a very specific plan here, which is great. But like, does that mean you can buy, throw in darling altcoin that somewhat died from previous cycle named Matic? Does that mean we can buy Matic in September and October and see it pull 100x or 10x by the end of the election? Or do we have to look at the new big shiny things it seems like the the attitude is to always be looking at the the new big shiny things um i definitely see it in the slani ecosystem um that hot ball and and you know i guess it does it does happen in all of them like it's just the hot ball of money that chases from one to the next. But you know,

Starting point is 00:10:26 it should these things at the end of the day, these protocols, when you're looking at it from that perspective, coins seem to be like widgets, right? It's like, where are you going to get

Starting point is 00:10:41 the biggest bang for the buck? They're all going to kind of move bang for the buck um they're all going to kind of move in tandem every things are so intertwined with with um with spot markets and swaps and whatnot um that you know if alts are moving and anything that's crossed up with something else is going to move with it and and uh a lot of you know, I think most of the capital is just, it's that hot ball of money moving through. And you have a lot of opportunistic traders. It makes sense that that's the way it's going to work. Yeah.

Starting point is 00:11:16 Yeah. The only problem I have, it's a hot ball of money. It's trading memes, obviously. But even if that hot ball of money moves all coins, we're still going to have 200, maybe 2,000 new tokens that people have been investing in for the last three years starting to unlock because nobody wanted to launch their tokens. And we're going to still have the late unlocks from some of the big protocols from last. I guess my question is, even if the hot ball of money moves, can we get, because of this liquidity he's talking about, can we get this new retail FOMO? Like last cycle, it took Doge going wild to get money going into crypto and NFTs, right? So like, how do we get, I guess,

Starting point is 00:11:55 the new retail FOMO to come in so it's not just the same money? That's a great question. And I ask myself that every day and um you know i i don't see it being um you know as popular as it is i don't see it coming from things like pump.com yeah i you know if if you if you take a step outside the crypto world and go talk to your your friends who are in other businesses, they're still trying to ask themselves

Starting point is 00:12:28 whether or not Bitcoin's for criminals. To get them to do things, you need to give them, here, this is a good segue actually. Let's take something like, maybe this is a small plug, but something like Golf App that you're familiar with. Golf, yeah. Yeah, maybe this is a small plug, but something like Golf App that you're familiar with. Golf, yeah.

Starting point is 00:12:46 Yeah, so this is something that very much has crypto rails. It uses things like NFTs. It eventually will work into, through its partner Axiom Foundation, some form of rewards, points and tokens and whatnot. And when you're using that app, pretty much everybody that's using it that is like a regular golfer, they're not even going to know they're using crypto. No idea. No idea. No idea. And so I think that you're going to,

Starting point is 00:13:27 which this could be a big net positive. I'd love to see this at the consumer layer, like a, you know, really an obfuscation of the complexities of the plumbing and crypto. And, and can you make that UX comparable, if not better in some ways than, you, than what you get in traditional web too? And if we could do that, I think we're going to have a chance of getting people invested. You have suddenly somebody through a Play to Earn app is being rewarded with some token.

Starting point is 00:14:04 And that token is on Coin coinbase let's say one day and you know that's kind of the go-to for everybody and you know at least in the in the u.s for that matter and now they're in crypto and i think that has to happen i think we're at that point where that has to start happening. Because again, when I talk to people that are outside of crypto, they're going to hear about Bitcoin again when it's at $90,000. And the broker's calling them about the new ETF at Morgan Stanley. Otherwise, I will be very interested to see

Starting point is 00:14:47 if you're going to get that same post-Doge rush. And maybe it'll happen and maybe it doesn't exist yet. Who knows? But I do want to see something where we can really start converging through consumer applications

Starting point is 00:15:04 that make it a competitive UX to Web2. And I think that's a good question. Yeah, I mean, listen, you came in, Sierra sort of started as gambling, right? And really, that's what it does now. It's all plumbing for- I have to ask about Polymarket. Yeah, right.

Starting point is 00:15:26 So let's ask. So Polymarket, is this... A lot of people are saying, hey, it's just a betting app, betting obviously on effectively anything. But is it just happens to use crypto? Or is this something that could lead to actual crypto adoption? I mean, there was 5 million on what Trump would say during his ex-speech with Elon Musk.

Starting point is 00:15:48 I mean, you can see specifically that there was betting on what he would say and different words that he would say. I mean, people literally bet hundreds of thousands of dollars on whether Trump would say tampon. Like real money. Real money. It's right there. I mean, tampon.

Starting point is 00:16:03 There it is. $447,9 is that is that crypto is that people that are that are already in crypto or is it like that's my question like could poly market become some or something like it predictive markets could because it's crypto native could that become the big thing and by the way i mean they didn't mention crypto in speech, which was wildly disappointing for a lot of people because or the conversation because this conversation was supposed to happen in Bitcoin Nashville. I mean, it already is like, yeah. Things like prediction markets, I think, you know, will continue to persist. They persisted long before. When we started Hero, we have an advisor,

Starting point is 00:16:46 early advisor to Hero that I forgot the name of his business, but they were using prediction markets for big Fortune 500 companies were going in and using prediction markets to help

Starting point is 00:17:01 try to get crowdsource predictions from their employees about their own company. to help try to get crowdsource predictions from their employees about their own companies, like things like that. There's a lot of other use cases for it than purely degeneracy. But yeah, I mean, look, we were on it years ago. We were way ahead of the curve on it.

Starting point is 00:17:21 There's no doubt about it. Polymarket came on a couple of years later and they weathered a few storms. And the question to me will be, are there things like prediction markets go back into hiding post-election? Obviously, election markets are the biggest thing. Right. I was just going to say, they were the benefit of incredible timing with the way this election has played out and the ability to bet on it in real time. It's just become an absolute hit.

Starting point is 00:17:53 But look at Polymarket, it's been around for years. Yeah, and it started to gain traction with the betting on the spot ETFs approval, right? And then the elections just exploded. Right. I mean, remember Augur? The problem with Augur was Augur is decentralized. And of course, when that happens, people are suddenly doing assassination markets. And that's not good. You don't want assassination markets on your platform.

Starting point is 00:18:22 So is Polymarket, I haven't actually dug into it. So Polymarket, they set what the predictive markets are. You can't just put anything like Augur. To the best of my knowledge, yes. It is not open source. Listen, so is there anything else that's exciting you before I let you go? Like right now, obviously golf. We talked about that.

Starting point is 00:18:44 I do know about that i've played with it that's going to be awesome like so is it really gaming and these experiential things where we finally abstracted away the crypto side of it that's going to be the next boom i think i think things like that um golfing uh there's something called Moonwalk Fitness. I don't know if you've seen that flying around a little bit. Cool concept. It's a little bit of a derivation from the play-to-earn model. Moonwalk is really about fitness accountability. And what they do is you have these walking tournaments, almost like Step-In stepping was where maybe it's like 10,000 steps a day for five days and you put a tournament together or a contest and you have to bond yourself and so maybe you put up uh you know one salon and everybody in the in the contest puts

Starting point is 00:19:41 up one salon so there's a hundred people the contest. Every day you don't complete your minimum step requirement, your bond gets slashed. And you lose that portion of your bond back to the pool, and then everybody who has completed the task every day will then get paid out from that. So it's a really cool concept, creates a lot of accountability. It's kind of like the next gen of like joining,

Starting point is 00:20:12 getting all excited and joining a gym and then putting it in your credit card and forgetting that you're wasting a hundred bucks a month, right? So things like that, golfing, we have turned our focus very heavily into the regulated um i gaming sector so crypto casino platforms building plumbing towards that we have a part integration partner called bitblocks it's doing game content we're doing a lot of stuff

Starting point is 00:20:40 there and so i think that's where you're going to see it i think you're going to see all forms of that kind of push there. And I think that's where you're going to start to see a lot of movement in crypto. Love it, man. Well, always love your perspective. Thank you for joining. And we just got to come back and fall and see if he's right or if we're right. Yeah. I don't know what uh what arthur's record is you know on his predictions if he's uh i mean he makes like oddly specific predictions based on time and numbers by the way he said bitcoin had to be above 7 000 and eth above 4 000 for it to happen i should have asked that so you know those two things don't happen we've gotten out and whatever but he's got balls because he says exactly what he thinks is going to happen.

Starting point is 00:21:26 Hey man, it's markets. Who knows? You know, you got to go into it with an open mind and be ready to move on a dime. So. All right, brother.

Starting point is 00:21:34 Speak to you soon, man. Thank you so much. Everybody follow down in the comments later, man. Yeah. All right. Now moving on to arch public and it'll be exciting because we have another trade on the $10,000 portfolio. And we're up to $13,012. Up over 30% on the $10,000 portfolio. Killing it.

Starting point is 00:21:59 How'd we do it? I feel like I did it. It was my, I worked on it. It's exciting stuff, man. We, we, we've got some feedback from customers and I probably the best feedback piece of feedback we got. We, we put all these on our site, by the way. You know, we, I got a text that said, man, you guys are just killing it. It's, it's just incredible the way that the, the algorithm does its work. It's, it's literally like having a hedge fund. It's just incredible the way that the algorithm does its work. It's literally like having a hedge fund. It's almost better than a hedge fund. And not adding additional commentary as to why it feels better than a hedge fund. And it's really because of that liquidity. But it is, yeah, we were up additional, a little more two percent um last friday um a trade was taken

Starting point is 00:22:48 um and again it's the pace and speed and the accuracy that these these trades happen um that really get uh our customers and our clients pumped up um because they see it happen um they watch and they realize that you know again there's just no way that on their own they could do this. You know, a trade in the gateway that happened at 928. And not to give away too much secret sauce, but the candles leading up to the open, the five or so minutes that lead up to the open are much, much tighter than obviously the opening candle. So the trade happened two minutes before the open. And for people that don't know, futures trade about six days a week.

Starting point is 00:23:34 There's about a 24 hour period, but they don't trade on the weekend. So they're open almost all the time. And so 928 jumped into a trade and was out of the trade in about 39, 40 minutes. So very, very quick happened very, very quickly and added again to the total of the model portfolio that we're talking about here. So it's just, you know, it's fun. It's fun to take the ride with customers. It's fun to take the ride with you. Um, over the last four months, there's been a significant, um, Delta difference

Starting point is 00:24:14 between broader traditional financial markets and our gateway algorithm. So, you know, if we're, if we're right at about in the, in the past 30 days, if we're right at about 20 percent in the past 30 days on the S&P, you're up about 2 percent. On the Dow, you're actually down about 30 basis points or 0.3 percent. And on the Nasdaq, again, it's up about 2 percent over that 90 day period. So, you know, 18% difference while at the same time sitting out, you know, significant volatile moments in the markets overall. So people are very, very happy. People are ecstatic. People are looking at other ways that they can get involved with us and add additional algos to the work that they do with us. But the proof is in the pudding, right? The proof is in the performance. So the difference between what traditional markets are doing and what people

Starting point is 00:25:12 are generally invested in, that matters. And I know on this channel, people are generally crypto native. And so, you know, in the first month or two of talking to us, a 2% or a 5% or even a 12% back at the end of May doesn't necessarily light people on fire. But when you put a 90 days together of 20% or four months of 30%, that begins to get people's attention. And you're like, well, wait a minute. There hasn't been a meaningful downturn in that 20% or 30% number over three or four months. There's stop loss protection on on 80 of our algorithms okay i need to be paying more attention and so the amount of incoming and inbound that we're getting is is pretty significant and we love what we do more importantly uh do you think we're going to get a shit coin soiree, as Arthur Hayes said in the fall?

Starting point is 00:26:07 Shit coin soiree. I mean, Arthur is a pretty sharp guy, right? I think the fall is going to be associated with who wins the election. If we get a Trump regime, I would probably put money down on a quote-unquote shitcoin soiree. I could see a movement. Yeah. Sexy shitcoin soiree, actually. Yeah, those two words don't go together, shitcoin and soiree.

Starting point is 00:26:42 But, yeah, I could see a move up and to the right, but I think it would be fairly short-lived, to be honest. Those predictions, sometimes they come true, but they often are a little less pronounced than we would hope, right? Oftentimes, movements in the markets that are really significant, nobody at times really predicted. It's very rare that somebody predicts or there's mass predictions that come true. It's just very rare. So who knows what the possibilities or outcomes would be with a Trump victory. But we'll see. You know, it's frankly a 50-50 type of proposition right now, no matter who you're rooting for in the presidential election.

Starting point is 00:27:34 Yeah, so there we are. I was going to give you a segue. I was going to say I have my money on a sexy shit coin soiree, but if you want to avoid sexy shit coins just make steady money and gains and then dollar cost average right back into Bitcoin at the end with the Bitcoin algorithm coming

Starting point is 00:27:52 yeah our Bitcoin algorithm is coming at the end of this week we announced that it will be ready on August 15th it's actually ready right now and people that get involved with us at some of our higher um we announced that it will be ready on august 15th it's actually ready right now um and people that get involved with us um at some of our higher tiers are going to get that product

Starting point is 00:28:18 quote unquote for free um it's going to be a really really really really cool product with some intelligent features to it um that are going to allow people to stack Bitcoin in a very, very aggressive way at lower prices than most people do and really allow you to dial in how you build your Bitcoin base and your Bitcoin stack. And as we know, that's been a pretty good way of building wealth over the past three, five, seven, 10 years. And so we like where that's headed and we're going to be shouting that particular product from the mountaintops, not only here on your show, but everywhere we can find. And we hope that here in the next 48 to 72 hours,

Starting point is 00:29:03 we can announce who we're going to be doing it with. And yeah, excited about it. Excited about it. Yeah, no, no, no,

Starting point is 00:29:12 you know, paperwork. We're just waiting on paperwork. Just waiting on paperwork. You know how that works. It takes a, it takes a minute. I might have some ideas,

Starting point is 00:29:20 but yeah, guys, I know it was a shorter show. As you know, I'm a, I'm, I'm remote and uh just decided this morning this is gonna be the last show of the week take the rest of the week off it's time because coming back monday hard and i'm launching something new myself that i've talked to andrew

Starting point is 00:29:35 about which uh whatever i'm gonna work on that and see all of you guys on monday but uh thank you andrew thank you everybody We will see you soon. Have a good one. Enjoy, man.

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The Wolf Of All Streets - Get Ready For The Bitcoin & Altcoins Explosion: Here Is When To Expect The Next Rally

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