The Wolf Of All Streets - Get Ready For The Crypto Explosion: Ethereum to $22K, Bitcoin to $80K

Starting point is 00:00:00 Vanette has put out some monster targets for Ethereum by 2030. 22K, not that big, but that's their base case. The bullish case will definitely shock you, as will the bearish case. We're going to talk about this and everything happening in crypto and macro market news today. I've got Alex Tapscott to discuss, and of course, Dan, the chart guys on the back end. Let's go. What is up, everybody? I'm Scott Melker, also known as the Wolf of All Streets. Let's go. Look, obviously, at coin market cap. Perhaps we can zoom that in so you guys can see it a little better. No, we can't. It's not working. There we go.

Starting point is 00:01:06 Bitcoin trading right around 71,000 right now. Still up almost 5% over seven days, but flat on the 24-hour. Pretty much everything flat if you're looking at it over the day. But there have been some surprising moves. Obviously, we've discussed of late BNB making a new all-time high. Ethereum also obviously catching a bid over the past few weeks. We're going to discuss this and more with today's guest, Alex Tapscott. How are you, man?

Starting point is 00:01:32 I hope you're doing great. It's been a while. Yeah, I'm doing great. Thanks for having me back on the show. Yeah, so listen, now my screen share is not working. So one second, I was going to go ahead and bring something else up. But we've got this obvious huge headline, target by 2030, Ethereum 22K. I think that's low.

Starting point is 00:01:54 I don't know what you think. I think that's low. Well, $22,000, I mean, it's at about $3,800 right now. So what's that? Like, you know, 6X. I just said 6X, yeah. That's where we are. So 6X of $500 billion is, 6x from where we are. So 6x of 500 billion is rough math,

Starting point is 00:02:07 3 trillion. So basically, they're saying the base case by 2030 is that Ethereum will be about as big as Nvidia is today. And I think if you frame it in that kinds of terms, it actually makes a lot of sense. I mean, Ethereum has the potential, in my opinion, to become the most valuable asset of all time. This is a platform that today still supports the vast majority of new applications and new protocols and networks in Web3. And that's something I don't see slowing down anytime soon. In fact, I think with the addition of high performing layer twos and additional network upgrades that this network will become sort of the hub around which there are many spokes and many different implementations and many blockchains. But fundamentally, Ethereum is sort of the anchor of all of that. So, yeah, look, I think the target is an interesting one.

Starting point is 00:02:57 I'd like to see what that looks like on an annualized IRR basis. We've got about six years to get to, you know, 4X. So it's probably like 70, 80% per year type performance. But yeah, look, I mean, I think their target is interesting. I'd be curious to know what the high-end price was there, Scott. I didn't have a chance. I got it for you. I got it for you right here. It was in my newsletter today. Here we go. 22,000 base case case bear case 360 you know probably zero honestly like bear case why stop at 360 360 it's like this thing doesn't work out you know i don't see a 360 but i know my camera's out having tech issues but hopefully you guys can still hear me but the

Starting point is 00:03:41 bull case they're 154 000 yeah yeah i, I don't know how they get there. I think 22,000 seems like a nice fit. You know, it's an evaluation that in the near term is attainable because we can compare it to the value of other leading technology providers and platforms. You know, you can think of, I think of NVIDIA and Ethereum as actually being quite similar. NVIDIA is providing the picks and shovels, the key infrastructure to unlocking the value of the AI age. And Ethereum is the platform on top of which all of these new applications and protocols are getting developed. So in many respects, they are both underpinning the growth of, to me, the two most important technology trends of this era. Okay. So the base assumption there is that Ethereum continues to have the bulk of the, obviously, TVL, AUM, and that this is the place

Starting point is 00:04:32 where the interest continues to build. I'm a huge ETH bull. I have been through the entire downturn. I've said countless times, I think that the lagging price action is an opportunity, not an indictment. And we've seen it many cycles. I mean, listen, we saw this thing go to $1,400 down to $80 and then to over $4,000. Not that crazy to see what's happening, but there's been this argument that everything being built on Ethereum will end up being built on Bitcoin, which I think is nonsense. I think they're a decade behind and that Solana is going to eat Ethereum's lunch. Yeah, I don't see it. I mean, and I'm not but bearish on either of those other names. I'm actually bullish. There's enough room for more, you know, kinds of platforms to do well. You know,

Starting point is 00:05:19 the question of percentage of TVL, like will Ethereum be the dominant player? Honestly, I'm not really concerned about that. Like the TVL on Ethereum at the beginning of the DeFi summer of 2020, 2021, was 100% because it was the only functioning platform out there. And today it's probably like 60%. But in that same period of time, the price of ETH has you know 5x right so you can lose market share and still grow in value in in 1919 um ford was making most of the cars in the united states because of the model t and by 1929 their market share had declined significantly because there was more competition but the company was way bigger and the reason for that is that way more people were driving cars so if you think more people are going to be using Web3 native applications, and there's going to be more

Starting point is 00:06:08 developers building, you can have a smaller piece of a much bigger pie and end up being significantly more valuable. And I think that's just how people should think about it. Yeah, of course. It's like Bitcoin dominance when you're adding, I don't know, 500,000 meme coins on Solana. I know they don't count in that metric, but if you think about it rationally, naturally, the dominance of anything is going to drop as you add thousands, tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands of competitors to that total pie. But as long as the total pie is growing, to your point, you're good to go. I mean, they really thought this out very well. Obviously, some of this has to do with the Ethereum spot ETFs, which have been approved in the 1940s, but obviously have not

Starting point is 00:06:45 launched with the S1s. A lot of people, here you go, on Bloomberg. I love that we're talking about Ethereum on Bloomberg, just in general. But zooming out, if you thought about that in 2016, 17, 18, 19, not even a thing. Doubts about US Ether ETF demand, herald test for second largest token, BlackRock fidelity among issuers preparing to list Ether ETFs. J.P. Morgan analysts expect fraction of demand for Bitcoin funds. But wouldn't a fraction of demand for Bitcoin funds be a success for an Ethereum spot ETF launch? Yeah, I mean, I think this point of view that Ether ETFs are somehow going to be bad for Ethereum is like a classic mid-curve opinion. It's like people overthinking things with like too many data points. You know, the argument,

Starting point is 00:07:27 just to say like what their point of view is, is that A, demand for Ethereum Ether will be less than Bitcoin. That's probably true. In fact, we have an example of that, like in Canada in 2021, there were Bitcoin ETFs and then Ethereum ETFs. And Ethereum ETFs still gather tons of money,

Starting point is 00:07:44 but it was like about 25 to 30% of what Bitcoin ETFs and then Ethereum ETFs. And Ethereum ETFs still gather tons of money, but it was like about 25 to 30% of what Bitcoin ETFs gather. Just to put that in perspective, Bitcoin ETFs have gathered net $14 billion. So like that's like four to $5 billion of ETH demand if you view it as comparable. So that's still hugely significant. But the other point is Grayscale has the Ethereum trust. And the question is, how much outflows will we see from that Ethereum trust? And will those outflows overwhelm the

Starting point is 00:08:12 inflows? Again, this is overthinking the problem. Ethereum ETFs are good for Ether. And I think that we're going to be surprised to the upside by how much demand there is for this. Yeah, I think everybody just wants to know how to trade it. So those metrics start to matter for the first few weeks. We saw, obviously, the GBTC unlock be bearish for a couple of weeks. And then, as you said, once that sort of supply stopped hitting the market, we saw exactly what happened. $49,000 to $39,000 to $74,000. So a pretty astounding rise and still seeing record inflows at the moment on Bitcoin spot ETFs. I think we're at our second longest streak of inflows day to day. And yesterday or two days ago was the largest day we'd had since March.

Starting point is 00:08:57 And let's not forget, too, that the companies that launched the Bitcoin ETFs are the same companies that are launching the Ether ETFs. And the success of these Bitcoin ETFs, I'm sure that are launching the Ether ETFs. And the success of these Bitcoin ETFs, I'm sure, is causing waves inside of those firms. Half of the entire ETF inflows for Fidelity in 2024 have come from Bitcoin. And over a quarter of the flows for BlackRock, BlackRock for their ETF business has come from Bitcoin. So you don't think that they're going to throw their weight behind the next product in this asset class. Their sales team clearly is seeing that there's a lot of resonance with end investors, with advisors, and even with what these wealth platforms. And I think you're going to see a similar kind of push with Ethereum when it comes

Starting point is 00:09:38 to market. And I still think Ethereum is one of the most hated sort of assets from an investment perspective. I've been saying that for over a year. Like, I want to be in the thing that has a fundamental use case that seemingly nobody wants to get on board with. Yeah, exactly. I mean, I think, look, I mean, I'm a big fan of Solana. And Solana has captured the zeitgeist, I guess, in this cycle with some of these meme coins. Casino. But yes, I agree.

Starting point is 00:10:03 Look, gambling is a big business. And obviously, Bitcoin is the mother of all cryptocurrencies. Its base case as a store of value, as digital money for the digital economy, I think is really compelling. And then you throw on top of it the potential for Bitcoin to act as a protocol and platform for new apps. I think that's great, too. But in the middle is this thing, as you point out, that seems to be kind of overlooked somewhat. And yeah, I just think we're going to see the

Starting point is 00:10:28 most hated rally of all time in Ethereum in 2024. I mean, you can even see hints of it when it first did that 30% bump on the news, the surprising news that the Ethereum spot ETFs were likely to be approved. You talked about sort of the proliferation of layer twos, the way that this could get there, the speed of those. Why layer twos, layer threes, when we have theoretically other blockchains, we can do all this on layer one. I mean, do you think we get to the point where that layer two complexity is abstracted away? Because it's still kind of difficult with the bridging and understanding it and opening the wallets. And I just don't think your average person still can use Ethereum in a cheap way. I think most of them just pay the high fees

Starting point is 00:11:08 because using the layer one is more natural. Yeah, I think that the layer two thesis is actually very bullish for Ethereum. Some people were concerned that, you know, with the launch of layer twos, that one or two layer twos would become dominant. And then all of a sudden there's a network that allows you to settle transactions. Maybe that thing actually usurps ethereum right

Starting point is 00:11:29 the layer 2 becomes a layer one and some of this is sort of semantics but i think that that concern is no longer really one that people should be focused on if you look at the layer 2 world it's highly fragmented um all of these different um twos, you know, are vying for transaction volume and, you know, user attention. But there's no single one that's sort of like ruling them all, so to speak. And I think that that's very good for Ethereum because it treats Ethereum as sort of like the base settlement layer for this entire ecosystem. And again, like that's something that I've been talking about for many, many years. You know, you can think of Ethereum

Starting point is 00:12:06 as kind of like the electrical grid for like a big city. The city's called like Web3 town or something. And these different layer twos are sort of like substations that regulate the flow of electricity on the grid, make it more efficient, you know, make it more localized. But fundamentally, you know, the bigger the city gets, the more valuable the

Starting point is 00:12:26 electric utility becomes. And I think that we sometimes lose sight of the fact that underpinning all of this is the Ethereum network. Yeah, I agree. As a base layer network, it makes a ton of sense. I don't think any of those usurp it either. There's a huge story today that is not getting the attention I think it should be. Robinhood to buy crypto exchange Bitstamp in effort to expand outside the US. So A, it's huge from the perspective that Robinhood is clearly making a major commitment to expanding in crypto. I've heard rumors of them buying a lot of other trad-fi businesses on their radar as well that are crypto adjacent, but I can't really get into those until they're fact but robin hood is on a mission right now to build a full suite of services for all assets that's all i can say and both institutionally and in crypto but i mean bitstamp bitstamp is the exchange for bitcoin

Starting point is 00:13:17 historically this is the one where everybody sort of said the whales were always if you wanted to know what the whales were doing check bitstamp right know what the whales were doing, check Bitstamp, right? You want the Bitstamp Bitcoins. Even SBF once told me that in a podcast, sadly. But expanding their footprint outside the US with one of the biggest names in the business over time, only $200 million, which I was a bit surprised casually. I thought it'd be a much, much more valuable deal. Yeah. Yeah. Sorry, not interrupt I just wonder what the what the metrics are for that business like I gotta assume it's very very profitable um so yeah maybe you know there's a way to scoop up private um you know profitable crypto asset platforms for pretty reasonable valuations and so it makes you wonder what other companies what other public companies with the currency to do that uh the ability to tap the market and raise cash or maybe use their stock, might be interested in

Starting point is 00:14:10 acquiring other kinds of businesses. I think the big question though is not what's the next crypto exchange to be bought by a millennial and Gen Z facing wealth platform like Robinhood. But when is the major financial institution going to buy one of the big exchanges? Is there a case that a Morgan Stanley or a J.P. Morgan or one of these big firms should buy a Coinbase? I think the odds are pretty low in the short term of something like that happening. But, you know, you have to wonder if you want to get exposure to 100 like 100 million verified accounts in the case of Coinbase, maybe more 110 and a platform that is the dominant sort of regulated entity.

Starting point is 00:14:58 It starts to look kind of interesting. I don't know anything. I'm just sort of completely speculating. But I think that consolidation is something that we're going to start to see a lot more of in the next little while. Yeah, I mean, I think that also there's an institutional angle here. European institutions, to my understanding, largely trade on Bitstamp. volume on a day-to-day basis or how many retail customers they have. This has long been the place that European hedge funds and institutions go to trade Bitcoin specifically. Yeah. It's a big market. There's a half a billion people there and a lot of funds and other firms that eventually are going to need an on-ramp and a way to transact the asset class.

Starting point is 00:15:43 Yeah. So do you have any other things that you're watching really closely here? I know that you've had your eye on base when we were talking about layer twos, I think obviously Wall Street on the radar. And then of course, the, I would say, thawing of US political anger towards the crypto industry for various reasons. I mean, I'm really getting into one of those places where I find it hard to see the massive bearish case. I can see why people are cautiously optimistic with Bitcoin at this price and things having pumped, but it seems like nothing but tailwinds to me. Yeah. I mean, I think we had historical headwinds in the aftermath of FTX. And then sometime sort of mid last year, that started to switch. It started with the federal judge striking down the SEC case

Starting point is 00:16:31 against Grayscale and then eventually with ETFs. And I think that by sort of the beginning of this year, the whole environment was balanced. I wouldn't say it turned positive, but I think it was sort of neutral. And so the industry was able to sort of grow on its own. And now it appears as if things have turned from headwinds into tailwinds. Now, I think that the, you know, the much heralded reversal by Biden and others is probably overstated. It's not a reversal. It's a, let's not talk about this so negatively and so outwardly that it hurts us with voters. Who knows what's going on behind the scenes? Completely, but there's clearly been a tone shift and that part is undeniable. You know, the FIT 21 bill, I know that some people have taken issue with some

Starting point is 00:17:17 of the specifics, but in my opinion, it's very significant that the House of Representatives voted in a bipartisan manner on a bill that would sort of limit the ability of the SEC to, you know, try and regulate the whole industry and create sort of divisions of labor and also make it easier for companies to domicile and build, you know, lawful Web 3 businesses in the United States. I think that's very significant. And obviously that hasn't become law yet, but the fact that Biden said he wouldn't veto that, I think is also significant. So it's an interesting question to ponder, which is, does this change of government tone signal that the US is going to now really dominate this next era of the web? Because up until now, Web3 businesses had succeeded

Starting point is 00:18:08 in the United States, not because of government support, but almost in spite of it. But, you know, the States, I'm Canadian, for your listeners, you know, we look, I've lived in the US before, but, you know, you look at the US, you're like, look, you know, the biggest common market, the biggest VC industry, the most technology workers, you know, the best computer science programs at the most prestigious universities. You know, I'm not trying to blow smoke, but there's a lot of good stuff going on that allows things to thrive, right? Especially around innovation and entrepreneurship. But then, you know, you got to have a government that's, if not supportive, at least is sort of neutral, right, calling balls and strikes. And I think now we have more visibility into what that position might look like.

Starting point is 00:18:54 So where does that leave the rest of the world? Well, a lot of countries had tried to use, I guess, the vacuum that existed in the States as a way to basically hang a shingle and say, we're the place where you want to build, right? So if you look at the UAE in Dubai, or you look at the United Kingdom and the Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak talking about making Great Britain a Web3 capital, and if you look at Singapore, and I was just in Japan, sat on a panel with one of the ministers, a minister for Web3 and AI.

Starting point is 00:19:26 That is his official title. I mean, yeah, imagine having that in the United States. These things don't exist, right? So, and, you know, it's like Japan's thinking, you know, Web1, look, they didn't build a lot of Internet companies, but they did have a lot of hardware and they dominated, you know, in a lot of respects there. Web2, they basically completely missed it, right? Like if you think about all the big, you know, multi-trillion dollar companies that got developed and built in the Web2 era, they're all American and some of them are Chinese, right? So they're thinking, okay, Web3, we got another kick at the can here. How do we make sure that we can get ourselves back

Starting point is 00:20:01 in the game? So where does it leave countries like that if the US is changing its tune? I think it's too early to say, but I think it's probably put people on notice. Yeah, we actually have some metrics that align with sort of our assumption here. US reclaims crypto crown on Bitcoin ETFs, Trump rise in polls. You guys may remember actually that the South Korean won last year, took over in a big way for the main currency used to trade crypto. We know that we had obviously this fear that, yes, he was going to crack out on everything. Everyone was leaving the United States. Well, now the dollar is once again the dominant crypto used to trade, largely because obviously of these ETFs and volumes rising, price going up. But this is pretty significant.

Starting point is 00:20:45 This shows exactly what you're saying, that the money is where the mouth is, so to speak. Yeah, the money is where the people are spending it. I mean, I'm shocked that the US dollar was ever not the main trading pair for this asset class, because it's obviously what people in the states use but it's also you know the global reserve currency um as remarkable data points guys yeah yeah i have a great comment here does it matter that ethereum is centralized has an inconsistent monetary policy and had an unlimited token supply of course these failures matter why is everyone ignoring these failures and of course grifters ignore the failures if there's money to be made. Love you guys. What's your point of view on that? You want to take one? Listen, I think that A, once you get an ETF, all of those things to your average retail investor institution, to Wall Street, to Larry Fink, et cetera, become irrelevant.

Starting point is 00:21:41 I think if you are a Bitcoiner and you're viewing ethereum as a direct competitor to bitcoin using the same metrics and comparisons it does not add up to bitcoin for those reasons but that doesn't mean it can't work as a base layer platform as you discussed as money as money i think that is very, very good and eloquent point. But as a platform, it doesn't matter. And I don't think Ethereum has ever been competing with Bitcoin to be hard money, even though we have the ultrasound money people. I know there are these ultrasound money people. I mean, like, you know, does Apple or Microsoft have an ultrasound monetary policy?

Starting point is 00:22:20 Like, no, they can issue stock. They can buy back stock. You know, it's a different set of of um conditions in that case it's a management team the board of directors approving it in the case of ethereum it's um you know from network upgrades but even still like I don't think anybody was talking about ethereum as digital gold or ultrasound money ethereum is fundamentally a technology platform and if it's useful and people build on it, then its value is going to go up, or it's likely to go up, I should say. And those are the signals that I'm following. I'm looking at where's the developer activity,

Starting point is 00:22:54 where's the layer two activity, and where are the most interesting applications in areas like D-Pen or decentralized AI or DeFi or whatever. And I just keep coming back to Ethereum. So those are the things that I'm interested in at this point. And, you know, like you can own Bitcoin and Ether. I just don't get it. It's like... It's okay. I was just going to say, I always likened it to, and I have in the past,

Starting point is 00:23:15 maybe now NVIDIA is the better corollary than Amazon. But I used to joke that Bitcoiners who make these comments about Ethereum remind me, it would be likened to a hardcore gold bug being triggered every time someone bought Nvidia stock. They just have nothing to do with one another. You can be a gold bug and believe that that's hard money and still invest in the stock market. It's fine. Yeah, absolutely. Yeah. And so that's always what got me.

Starting point is 00:23:43 We got one minute left. Anything left I might have missed that you want to add? Yeah, absolutely. Yeah. And so that's always what got me. We got one minute left. Anything left I might have missed that you want to add? Yeah, no. I mean, Scott, it's great to catch up again. It's a very exciting time, obviously. You know, the things that I'm interested in are not only, you know, the crypto prices, though, that matters for investors, of course. It's better for titles, man. It's better for titles.

Starting point is 00:24:03 I'm sorry. You got to get them here somehow. But also, you know, how blockchain and crypto assets are intersecting with other technologies. And honestly, I think that's the thing that that is going to define the next era. You know, I wrote in my new book, Web 3, Charting the Internet's Next Economic and Cultural Frontier, how it's the convergence of blockchain and AI and extended reality and robotics that I think is going to help to redefine business culture and society. And to me, that's something that can only happen if these technology platforms can scale and reach their potential. Yeah, totally agree, man. Thank you so much, as always. Happy to have you. Great perspective. I look

Starting point is 00:24:41 forward to doing it again soon in the very near future, man. Everybody give Alex a follow on X. It's his tag down below. Thanks, Alex. Thank you. Yeah. Take care, Scott. I see. It's so funny. Your comments, Frank, Fred Kruger needs to cope. Yeah, that's one of the hardcore maps. He's nothing against the guy. But man, he said he said I was a repulsive once. He had actually let me find the tweet this is i guess is a pretty good example um of the kind of seething that maxis tend to i found it amazing you guys might remember that i had raul paul on uh and we talked about meme coins and i

Starting point is 00:25:18 was actually being very critical of meme coins in the video saying it was a casino i didn't support it i didn't like it but i said that you can't ignore the fact that they're bringing TVL to the chain. I actually said it was likely whale manipulation that we're launching a lot of these tokens to bring more money to Solana to move the price up, which is not a positive. Raoul Poole and Scott Melker, two grown men, discussed how meme coins give value to chains like Solana. They represent a fundamental revolution for people who are tired of playing the old game. And then goes on to say things like, I'm more repulsive than Raul, quite a lot of things.

Starting point is 00:25:48 But yeah, these guys are the most easily triggered human beings in the world. And honestly, I'm here for it. At this point, I just get in these moods sometimes where I want to poke the nest. It's really fun. Triggering Maxis and watching them seethe is, I mean, it's probably like a top three activity in my life. Cause I used to kind

Starting point is 00:26:06 of be one of them before I bring on Dan. I want to remind you guys that on the round table, I broke this down for you guys two days ago, since we can't I can't really engage with your comments on YouTube. It's impossible because it's 9,000 scams and people telling you to buy a trading course or something like that. You can go, it's in the description says to comment, engage. There's a link and we can discuss on the round table where you have to be a registered human being and you can't be a bot. And so I responded to everyone's comments on Tuesday. It was really fun to have the engagement with you guys. You can do that. Fred Kruger, not a guy, but babysit your kids. I mean, he is the horror guy from Nightmare on Elm Street, right? The guy's name is Freddy Kruger. We got that going for me. I'm sure he's a wonderful guy from Nightmare on Elm Street, right? The guy's name is Freddy Krueger. We got that going for me.

Starting point is 00:26:45 I'm sure he's a wonderful guy. I know he's like friends with James Lavish, but just a perfect example of the easy triggering. I'm sure now somebody's going to send this and I'm going to hear about it, but whatever, fuck that guy. All right. I'm going to go ahead and bring on Dan Chart, guys.

Starting point is 00:27:00 Ethereum to 22K by tomorrow. What do you think? Yeah, it's a lock. It's a lock. By tomorrow, obviously. Yeah, no, I like the conversation you guys are just having because it makes a lot of sense. And it's just, one of my pet peeves is people that are so tunnel vision for just one thing. There's only one., you know, managing your wealth and diversification, there's, there's so many different ways to play markets. And, uh, yeah, you gotta,

Starting point is 00:27:29 you gotta be open to things evolving and changing. Yeah. I mean, but there's only Bitcoin. And if you don't live in a cardboard box and you're not spending all your money on Bitcoin and saving it forever to never sell, and you're going to get kicked out of the club. That's the other one that really gets me. It's like, Oh, you know, you should never have a house. You should put it into Bitcoin. And I'm thinking about all the experiences I've had on my land and my property with friends and family. And it's like, that makes absolutely no sense. You cannot value those things. You like fun. You like fun. And dude, you're kicked out. I'm sorry. But yeah, happy birthday, by the way. Somebody said,

Starting point is 00:28:06 happy belated birthday. I didn't know it was your birthday. So that makes me a bad friend, but happy belated birthday right there. And let's take a look at your charts. Let's take a look at what's going on here in this market. We got Bitcoin, obviously, pushing towards that all-time high, a few percent. Yeah, we're in a good spot. We're almost at two-month highs. And even if we fail this go-around at 72, we're just going to be looking for a daily higher low. And then we'll be talking about the possibility of a cup and handle. So there's no red flags at this point. We're extremely strong. And, you know, all time highs looking pretty good. New base of support and just patient. You know, it might be a little bit more sideways, but a good start to the week. That's for sure. How do you like my stripes that are my face now? Very good. I hope you can still hear me.

Starting point is 00:28:50 Guys, we're going to roll with the stripes. I can't get the camera to go back on. It's been one of those days. But yeah, I mean, I think Bitcoin looks great here, but still ranging. Like if it's trading consistently below 60, I'll be a little worried. If it's trading consistently above 74, I'll be really excited. Right now, we're just going to get really euphoric because we're in the top half of the range. Yay. That's exactly right. And onto Ethereum, sideways consolidation, nothing wrong with that. After the huge move up, so often we see a pullback of consolidation, 50% retracement or whatever. So nice to be consolidating at the top of that range. But as we've been saying for a very long time, it's all about ETHBTC. Can we confirm the first weekly uptrend in years to tell us this time is different? And that's going to be

Starting point is 00:29:31 the story for me in June in crypto is does ETHBTC confirm this weekly uptrend? We've been waiting for months and months and months. So many failures. Is this the time it's different? And I'm watching these EMAs, they're EMA 12 and 26. If we pull it off, they're going to cross bullish for the first time in over a year. And so that would be a significant enough shift to say it looks like a long-term bottom is being set. Yeah. It's so annoying. Every one of these pumps, if you take a look at that chart, goes right into that line and just dies a miserable death for years. Yeah. I mean, you know, no better reason for this to be the time.

Starting point is 00:30:10 It's different than the ETF. And obviously, if we had actual ETF inflows, that would make us a lot more confident. Now it's just a waiting game. And yesterday, Gensler saying, you know, a couple of comments about it, that maybe it's going to take a little bit more time than people are hoping for. But again, it's just a waiting game at this point. And maybe it takes a few weeks. Maybe it takes a couple months. But it's nice to know that it's coming down the pipeline.

Starting point is 00:30:32 Yeah, I'm hoping it'll be not an immediate sell the news event. But in the long term, as Alex said, I think you can't be anything but bullish on the existence of an Ethereum spotting chip. See how it can hurt. Yeah, for sure. So what else are you watching as we sort of like consolidate sideways here on Bitcoin? So obviously Binance, we talked about this about a month ago and it's just so, you know, it's so boring and this is how markets work. You just tighten and tighten and tighten. And then in the span, you know, I made a clip last week saying

Starting point is 00:31:00 within two days, when this range breaks, within two days, everybody's going to be talking about Binance because it happens so fast when it happens and you get, you know, three days of opportunity exceeding any of the opportunity in the last two months. And that's, that's one of the benefits of technical analysis. Even if you think it's, you know, voodoo, whatever, it can tell you when to start anticipating because volatility is coming when ranges get this tight. And if nothing else, it's an extremely useful tool for that. And so, you know, Binance is doing its thing. And of course, when we hit blue sky breakout, we use back burners, which is just first oversold conditions. Here's, you know, first 15 minute oversold since all time highs leading to 3% plus next, we'll be looking for first hourly oversold

Starting point is 00:31:40 eventually to be looking for a dip buy. That's not close to happening, but we know, so I call it a back burner. It's put it on the back burner. That trade will come to us eventually. And so that's the next one to be watching is hourly oversold on Binance. But yeah, it's just blue sky breakout. And it's always a good thing when a major name is hitting blue sky breakout because rising tide raises all ships and sentiment. It's only a positive. That sort of tightening consolidation there, you know, it's like a, just looks like a series of slightly lower highs and slightly higher lows. I mean, that kind of reminds me of what I anticipate with Bitcoin whenever this finally

Starting point is 00:32:15 happens, right? This sort of, I can't tell, I don't know how long, that was less time. I think that was only March, but like if we do this for four or five months of Bitcoin, it just kind of tighten up, you know, of course I can be down, but that's what I'm looking for after any sort of post-halving in the cycle. And it happens. This is two months, but we're seeing the exact same thing on ETH. You just zoom in and it's the same thing, just on a shorter term timeframe. And so these patterns happen so consistently just on different timeframes. And I love the ones, I've been getting into looking for them on monthly charts. And we were talking about CCJ and uranium for a long time over the last year. And it did the same thing here. Look at this monthly chart. That's an entire

Starting point is 00:32:54 year of tightening. And then it's go time and just seek out the tightening patterns and watch for their breaks. Yeah. What else are you looking at? So I want to talk a little bit about just the perspective of the broader market. We know NVDA is running the show now. And I know we got mostly crypto viewers, so I'm going to do some analogies. But essentially, the way I view the market from a zoomed out bird's eye view is NVDA is leading the semiconductor sector, obviously. Semiconductors are leading the NASDAQ. The NASDAQ is leading the S&P 500. It's this game of relationships. And what you want to see happen to stay strong in this market is essentially, let's say the NASDAQ is like Bitcoin. And we know in the most bullish crypto environment, Bitcoin leads, and then it consolidates health elite,

Starting point is 00:33:43 and money rotates into the altcoins. The broader market, the NASDAQ is Bitcoin and IWM is altcoins. It's all the smaller companies, and it's been significantly underperforming. It's doing the same thing as altcoins right now. The broader market's performing beautifully. Why is IWM not breaking out? Same thing. Bitcoin's performing beautifully. Why are these altcoins not breaking out? And so the best case is when NVDA sees weekly consolidation next, which will be inevitable at some point, does IWM confirm this little weekly cup and handle attempt? If that happens, best case scenario, markets are just fine. That's the perfect rotation. So if you're watching crypto, keep an eye on the stock market. As we know, NASDAQ and S&P 500 sentiment does have an impact on short term price action of Bitcoin. It's

Starting point is 00:34:29 definitely worth paying attention to. But watch for that rotation, because that's when you know just another big checkmark for the bulls. Yep, this is ideal scenario. And I don't have anything to worry about if this is going on. And that's what I'm looking for here in June. Next time NVDA tops out, does that money rotate to these weaker places for them to get their leg up? Yeah, it makes perfect sense. And a perfect sort of comparison to the crypto market for people who don't understand. I remember everybody was super bearish on IWN down there at the bottom at support. It was over. It was what I was breaking the range lows and it ended up just sweeping those lows and heading up. And now you

Starting point is 00:35:10 can see it's sort of broken out and is above. So that's exactly what I would look for is what you're discussing. Yeah. And right now IWM is the weakest it's been compared to the S&P 500 in a very long time. Here's IWM. And again, it's the same thing as these alts divided by Bitcoin, but IWM divided by SPY. I mean, we got to go back decades for it to be this week. So again, watching for that rotation to try and cool this chart off a bit, but it requires patience because I've been watching for this for a few weeks at this point and it's just not happening yet. And so it's no guarantee, but it is something I'm watching for in June. Absolutely. You got anything else? I think that's all of them you got up there, right? That's it. Yep. All right, man. Well, once again,

Starting point is 00:35:53 happy birthday. Everybody follow Chart Guys for a birthday present. You should get, I don't know how many people we got here, but you should get about 1,000. I'll assume some of you are. Okay. 850-ish new followers right now for his birthday. You don't go follow him and subscribe to his YouTube, then you have not wished him a happy birthday officially, man. Thank you so much. I'm still disappointed that you live on your land instead of living on your Bitcoin, but I'll get over it by next week. All right, Scott, have a good one. Thanks. Awesome. All right, guys, once again, I just want you to go check out the round table, something I'm pretty passionate about. I hope it works. We've got, like I said, myself, George from Cryptos R Us and the Altcoin Daily guys and Mario Knopfel. We're all going to be actively using it, making content for the street, which is part of it. It's going to be pretty awesome. It's going to be pretty awesome. I think I'll just go trigger maxis for the rest of the day. I did just send a tweet because I'm so ADD while we were talking that said,

Starting point is 00:36:50 would anyone like to join my new band? It's called Seething Maxis and all of our songs are about shit coins. Honestly, I could have crafted that tweet better if I had had more time and I wasn't focused on Dan's amazing analysis. Yeah. I mean, yeah. If your house isn't remortgaged, you're not a real maxi. If you haven't taken out a third mortgage into rising interest rates,

Starting point is 00:37:11 not a real maxi. You don't count. You don't count. Anyways, guys, that's all I've got. I will have Market Mavericks this afternoon with Gareth Soloway and Mike McGlone. I can be the lone bull amongst a, what was the group of bears called? Clan? Pride? What are they? Shitheads? I don't know. But I'll be there. Love those guys. Fun to be the bull in the bear party. And we need varying opinions. And it's awesome. So that will be at 3 p.m. Eastern Standard Time. And I'll be on x spaces in 30 minutes with mario and ran go check out round table in the description that's all i got for you guys it has been real Let's go.

The Wolf Of All Streets - Get Ready For The Crypto Explosion: Ethereum to $22K, Bitcoin to $80K

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