The Wolf Of All Streets - Gold DOMINATES Bitcoin As IMMINENT Recession Fears Set In! What's Next?

Episode Date: December 23, 2025

Markets are sending mixed signals heading into 2026 and crypto is caught right in the middle. In today’s livestream we break down the “major crisis ahead” narrative: why the Fed could be risking recession without more rate cuts, what Sen. Cynthia Lummis’ retirement means for crypto’s biggest allies in Washington, how Arizona is advancing a bill that could exempt Bitcoin and crypto from property taxes, and why Charles Hoskinson says the TRUMP token controversy helped fuel a “Bitcoin-only” shift while weakening bipartisan momentum for broader market-structure legislation. Nothing here is financial advice do your own research.

Gold and silver have been absolutely dominating Bitcoin and crypto, doing things to them that are only legal in Alabama and Mississippi. It's getting very ugly out there. The digital cousins of the real metals not performing well here into the end of the year. We also have Fed Moran saying that if we don't get more interest cuts fast, we're going to finally see the recession that we've been hearing about for so many years. I'm going to unpack all of this. This and more with my good friend, Andrew Parrish from Arch Public. Let's go. Good morning, fellow Wolf Packians.

Welcome to my new trading desk here in New York City. As you can see, it's not snowing today. We have lovely weather outside. I'm going to bring on Andrew now right after you like and subscribe because none of you are liking and subscribing and frankly, it's pissing me off. And the Algo hates you and it hates me. Like and subscribe. Have you liked and subscribed?

Yes, I have. Also, your background, if you had computers with green screens in it, looks very Wall Street, 1987. I appreciate it. It's not like their, it's not like their Commodore 64s. No. Those are the real computers back there. And I don't even know what you're talking about with my, we don't have a green screen.

This is real. No, I'm talking about on the computers, the green screens on the computers. Oh. Yeah. So we can write things on there. Like, why is Bitcoin absolutely horridly dead? Okay. So what do we got?

What's our price of the Bitcoins today? We have Bitcoin at 87,610. Last time I checked, it's between 85 and 90. every single day, but somehow crypto traders are getting liquidated 100 million a clip. Like price is within a $5,000 range and seemingly people still find creative ways to lose money. Yeah, so, you know, I will continue to contend that the four-year cycle quote-unquote of price is long gone because of the participants we have in the market. But I do believe that the four-year cycle of emotions remain.

right so we're in this spot where now where we've hit that part of the four-year emotional cycle where all right i just don't care anymore and so there's a a washout of new people that came here and cared above a 100k right yeah um and got involved for one reason or another and it's not gone the way that they were told that it would go by you know their cousin at you know a somewhere last year um and so yeah yeah their cousin scott yeah cousin scott and so the the washout emotionally is real um the fact that you could probably go check and see what you know the google searches are for bitcoin might possibly be at or near all-time lows um and from my vantage point that always means that we're probably looking at a slow bleed higher to start 2026. And in the second half of

2006, I think there's going to be meaningful upside. Whenever you hit this emotional bottom where like people don't care anymore, nobody's even talking about price. In fact, crypto Twitter is basically arguing with each other about God knows what. And, you know, we find ourselves, generally speaking surprised by where we are three to six months later so i'm starting to feel like an emotional bottom yeah yeah i mean it's like you know how when women like in sororities all sink their cycles together part of the four-year cycle where all of the men also have periods that's right if you spend any time on crypto twitter in the last week you would agree with that statement um everybody's arguing about quantum for some reason, everybody hates new car.

And quantum this week, it's like if we have nothing to fear, so let's make up some stuff for five, ten years down the road to just... Well, yeah, the reality is we can talk about quantum, but, you know, a meaningful quantum computer doesn't even exist yet. It's theoretical for all intents and purposes. Will we get there at some point in the future? Sure. Tillman, who's usually here, you know, has a good point about it.

if quantum at any point does break some bitcoin code it breaks one block right it doesn't break the whole kit caboodle it'll break one block and then the next block will go on and do its thing so yeah it's uh you know there's there's got to be something to talk about in the age of uh limited um you know ability to to keep your attention span which crypto twitter is well known for um there's there's something new to be negative about and to ascribe to the downfall of Bitcoin and crypto in general. So quantum is the conversation of currently. I will say that there's never been a larger dichotomy between people that have been in crypto a long time. And then again, the institutional interest interest and demand. Sure, we've seen some outflows with ETFs, but it's nothing like what the sentiment is, you know, in retail, let's call it.

The overall positioning by a place like BlackRock, which calls Bitcoin, you know, a big time, you know, trade for 2025. Why are they doing that? Why do they continue to market Bitcoin when nobody wants to talk about it in our world? Well, it's because it's their biggest product. It's their most profitable product. And just theoretically, they just flat out believe in it. And so they're going to keep pounding the table. So there's such a big difference between what's going on with the big, big, big dollars.

and folks that, you know, are angry at a chart again this morning here and all. They're angry at this chart. Peter Schiff is literally having spontaneous orgasms right now somewhere in the world. But Bitcoiners are mad because gold hits $4,500 for first time in history. That's what happens when you make all-time highs. I don't see why $4,500 is particularly relevant. But if we want to go full-moglone and never go full-mogloon. No, you never go full-muglone.

Part way, but this rapid rise in gold prices has only happened a few times in history. Never ended well. Pattern goes back centuries. Rome's crisis. The 200s. Spanish empire decline. French Revolution, you may have heard of this little thing

called the Weimar Republic. Bret and Woods collapsed. Soviet Union dissolution. Every time it meant the same thing, people lost faith in their government and money. History is repeating itself, and almost no one is paying attention. Pretty sure it might be loans been yelling about this for a while.

But I mean, are you concerned at all about the run of gold and silver here? The short answer is no. Every dog has its day. No, I'm not. Yeah, but Wymar Republic. Did you not hear the French Republic? Yeah, yeah, I heard about the Weimar Republic. So those situations oftentimes are connected after the fact, right?

The Weimar thing in Germany didn't happen because gold went up in price. It happened for 15 other reasons that happened to do. with political issues and all the things. It doesn't happen because gold went up in price. Because all those things were going wrong. Yeah, sure. No, listen, I'm not a, I've learned the lessons of the past 40 years associated with the markets, right?

So there have been moments in asset classes that have said, holy shit, there's a recession that's going to happen and it's going to happen very quickly because of X, Y, or Z. And the only meaningful time that that happened and it was even truncated by the actions that were taken by regulators in the moment was the great financial crisis. So even in the great financial crisis, there were people that said that, you know, we were just going to, people weren't going to be able to use ATMs. We were going to go back to bartering and none of that happened as well. So that's the only time, Scott, in our lifetimes. where there has been a very, very meaningful recession as adults that made an impact, right?

So basically an end of one. So you can go one of two ways. You can go full McLone and say, well, based on that data, we're due for something, right? Or the reality is that America has decided we're not going to do recessions anymore and we'll do anything we can to inflate ourselves out of. that. I have to believe. I don't know when. Like, listen, I think we all, we have, like I joke. I don't even mean it sarcastically about full mclone. I just think you have to, you know, when you go apart mclone, it means you're cognizant that it might come, but damn, how do you know when? Yeah. Right. Yeah, you don't. You don't. You have to go to 2032 when this finally happened and

they stopped pushing buttons and pulling levers. I have no idea. Well, I think, I think politically there's 2028 looms reasonably large because there is no version of our society that's getting less polarized, right? The polarization continues to be a real, real thing, and it continues to push to the outer edges. So the decisions based on what should or what should not happen with monetary policy that then trickles down to economic policy, which then trickles down to, let's just call it, societal policy, there's, you know, certainly there's a reckoning coming. Now, what does that look like financially? That's a different question. And what are the responses to that financial outcome? We've seen what has happened in the past. Over the past 20 years, anytime there's been a hint or a whiff of, okay, something bad's coming. All right, we'll just, you know,

it's the meme on Twitter, not even crypto Twitter, but just finance Twitter. You know, it's the Fed just pumping out dollars to make it go away. I'm not talking about Fed pumping up dollars. This just dropped. Sorry to interrupt, but breaking US Q3 GDP hits 4.3% beating expectations. Yeah. Yeah. See, that's kind of my point, right? So we have on the ground, the sky is falling, and then we get data that says, not really, it's actually, guys actually lifting. We just are having a hard time figuring out when it moves. Should we be afraid or should we not be afraid?

I mean, we had the S&P at an all-time high or within 3% and we had fear at like seven on the fear ingredient next few weeks ago. So people just don't want to buy into it. right now. They just need to feel that the end is coming. I think a lot of that is obviously just crypto people, right? Because I mean, look at this. Like latest annual performance of major assets in 2025. I didn't hear no bell. It ain't 2026 yet. Yeah. So, you know, this week we could go to like 150 tomorrow and then this would look ridiculous. But if we're counting it here on December 23rd, silver up 128 percent. I mean, gosh. Gold 66. I mean, copper, because

that's the thing people care about, NASDAQ up 20, even the Russell up 12. And here we are, all quakes, down 42.27%. Yeah. So I guess I can see why we're depressed or fearful. Yeah, it's echo chamber type stuff, right? The rest of the world is like, hey, this is the best, you know, Christmas slash holidays we've ever had because everything that I own is up in price. And the reality is, if you take the NASDAQ and the S&P as an example,

And you actually did the bounce off of the, let's call it, you know, tariff slash Iran lows. Those numbers are double what they are versus just your date. So, you know, again, there is a, there's an undercurrent associated with the, you know, let's just call it discourse in the United States where, again, there's meaningful polarization of political views. um the you know the middle uh of the country or the middle of the political views are are less and less and less um and so then you get a a viewpoint associated with those polarization uh points um that you know takes a position one way or the other as to you know those numbers don't matter i don't feel it everything's terrible and it's going to get worse two everything's fantastic. This is the greatest thing. This is the gilded age. This is the golden age of America,

yada, yada. So those camps, those two camps keep growing, right? People keep moving out of the middle into those two types of camps. So, you know, when Twitter is filled, our universe, our echo chamber is filled with people that are down 40 to 70 percent because most people, in our space hold more uh alt assets than they do just bitcoin um you know then that that echo chamber is going to be you know they're going to be a bit cranky every morning right a lot of people are wondering why it's been that way for all coins Charles Hoskinson says it was the trump token which caused crypto 70 votes Senate win and sparked the Bitcoin only crisis I love Bitcoin only crisis that's quite a framing yeah I mean it's done so well because uh those

assets you're talking about that everybody owns have not, but I actually tend to agree with him here. Because without the Trump token, we had really bipartisan support for everything. So I think on the one side, it definitely gave the remainders of the anti-crypto army some fuel, at least something to hang their hat on if anything swings. But on the flip side, also like what Al-coin is going to do better than the one, the most famous person on the planet, launches on a Friday night at 930. So I definitely think he put in like a ceiling for the Alkoy. coin market. Yeah, so that presupposes that all all coins are supposedly tied to, you know, Trump and Melania coin, when in reality, you're not getting that type of narrative. You know,

Black Rock and, you know, Alliance Bernstein haven't put out, you know, notes or, you know, some sort of research that claims that, well, the entirety of, of, of, you know, the entirety of, of all coin and what makes up quote unquote the blockchain movement is now dead because of trump coin they haven't put out those documents they just keep moving forward right so black rock just keeps using uh additional blockchain assets to build what it is that they think is going to be built into the future jp morgan keeps pushing forward i can't believe that i just said that on this pod you got a jp morgasm yeah yeah jp morgan is moving forward with block chain type technology and using you know a couple different crypto assets to do it and to explore

and find what it is that that they want to build so those things keep happening we we can you know we can again we can talk about narratives um people that are down 40 plus percent they want somebody to blame they want something to blame um when in reality um i would contend that if you decided to choose that there will be winners, you know, over the next two to four or six years as the rearranging of the world of finance in terms of the rails and architecture that it's built on, now's a pretty great time to pick, you know, eight to ten of those and four to six of them are going to win. You know, it's a really good time to do right now too. What's that? If you're really depressed and you bought a bunch of stuff higher than it is now, go ahead and sell it. Yeah.

And harvest those tax losses. You can still, as of right now, call your accountant, get their advice, but I've talked to many of them. And still, since there's no direct clarity, you can buy that asset right back. If you bought Bitcoin at 125, not tax advice, you can sell it right now at 87 or wherever we're at. And you buy it at 87 and right off a $40,000 loss. Yeah. Right now, while you're watching this show and you'll feel a lot less depressed given you might not have games. to write it off against.

Yeah. And to be fair, your your losses in altcoins, you know, are potentially significantly larger, right? Because if you bought alts at the time that Bitcoin was at 125, they've gone down a lot more. And if you bought them any time in history before that, they were already down that year at that point. That's true. That's true.

So, yeah, the crypto wash sale is a, you know, a force multiplying sort of tax benefit. associated with with crypto and it's a you know it's a it's a really cool thing put it that way does that apply to ETFs i don't think so no no absolutely not has to be a native native crypto assets yeah token yeah it'd be pretty great if it did but uh yeah you can't unfortunately um do that because uh those are actually real assets that they count yeah yeah it's it's uh there are all manner reasons long term to continue to be a huge believer in the space what's being built how it's being built and the pace and speed at which it's being built we just you know sometimes you can't get out of your own way in the proverbial echo chamber and that's where we're at right now oftentimes

the worst part about being in the echo chamber is when it goes almost silent and so that's where we're in it'll drive you crazy right it's it's like you know uh holidays yeah it's one thing to be you know put in prison with a bunch of people you don't like it's another thing to be put in a rubber room in a mental institution uh you go crazy very very quickly right so that's that's the nature of crypto twitter right now is it's just you know uh not a whole lot going on not a whole lot going on with price uh and everybody's you know quiet now we know that this guy may have a vested interest in seeing rate cuts uh being that he's a trump plant bed. But he says without more interest rate cuts, we're going to risk recession. I mean,

with our GDP growing like we just saw it, I don't know about all this. But yeah, I mean, he's still pounding the pavement on rate cuts that we need to get or else the recession that we were promised and never happen may come. Also, if you, just for fun, you want to take a look at the banner cycle, you guys have probably seen this, which is basically, you know, since the 1800s, 17, 1875 has predicted every period, not to say period again on the show, twice. But, you know, and it's predicted every crash. Well, we should be coming into a decent time here in a panic in 2035. Well, I mean, but maybe a little recession in there.

That's a chart. Light recession. He said, he told you in 1875 what was going to happen. And if you want to be dismissive of it, that's your problem. Anyway, you think that we could get a recession if we don't get more rate cuts? I think that rate cuts are going to happen because it has much more to do with the whole 2006 elections and then 2028 elections. I think it has much to do with politics as anything else.

I think the whole idea of affordability is, you know, Occam's razor at the moment from a political standpoint. And so interest rates are going to be used to that end. There's a there's a lot of reasons not to reduce interest rates as per the GDP that just got reported at 4.3%. You know, I think in the past four years, you know, GDP trundled along in the twos as opposed to the fours. So, yeah, the idea that we're on the brink of or heading towards a recession, and we've got GDP growth at nearly 4s, and a half percent is it's bonkers to think that way i that's very difficult to you have to follow the smallest string to get there and frankly the longest string to get there um it's not

often that you have um frankly recessions are uh are defined as uh negative GDP for two quarters in a row right so that doesn't we're no we're nowhere near that but we have but we have had one before and they just yeah and nobody talked about it right yeah nobody talked about it you know i mean something could be said about the media at that point but so again it's it's difficult to find your way to the idea of recession and why it would happen and also that you know we're closer to it than not um that's that's that's difficult and and again even if we begin to of slide in that direction, we're going to have, you know, new folks at the Fed who will be violent in their reaction to it by slashing rates because they will have been appointed by the current

administration and be working hand and glove with them. So, yeah, it's, it's, there's a much better chance that it's very, very, very, very difficult to, fully get a grip on inflation than it is dealing with a recession. Yeah. We've got one other kind of fundamental piece of news here that a lot of people have been watching, which is that Bitcoin faces its largest options expiry ever. We've actually talked about this at length yesterday, both Lavish and Weissberger think that this is the reason that we've seen price kind of chopping between 85 and 90. Basically, we've got Max Payne at 96th, which would mean that's the point at which the maximum number of options expire outside the money also was like a cartoon

max pain um but calls are clustered from 100 to 120k that's a broad range puts near 85k so you know uh we can see why we would just kind of be chopping above 85 or nowhere near 100 120 it would be pretty sweet actually if we expired on friday at 9 6 i think everybody would be super psyched if we We went up $9,000 for Max Payne on Friday, but maybe this is what's dampening volatility in the very short term here. Yeah, for sure. People need to, you know, if they want to understand price action going forward, options have become a very meaningful part of that story. When an asset matures and becomes a much, much larger portion of the traditional financial landscape, things like options. are playing a meaningful part in the way that that asset moves. And so we've gotten there.

Listen, we've begged for Bitcoin to get to this point in, you know, its growth and maturation process. You know, 2017, 18, 19, 2021, you know, we, we hoped that we get to a spot where not only were options as big. and it's robust to market as it is, but also that Bitcoin would be used by banks as collateral. And we've gotten there, too. So, again, careful what you wish for. And at the same time, you have to figure out how to play the options portion of the story as well. It all plays a part in the story of Bitcoin.

The volume on the ETF options is absurd, right? That absolutely is. It's a quality control. And that's going to as people find creative ways to hedge, and I mean, you're just going to have dampen volatility. Well, listen, I bet options are a monster. I mean, they literally are massive. And so that's again part of the story of you never go full McLone, right?

So the idea that somehow I bet options grow, grow, grow, grow, and then there's going to be this crazy end of the, universe event that takes Bitcoin down to 10,000, that's not a reality. There's too much that has grown up around Bitcoin as an ecosystem for that to happen. And the amount of egg on the face of BlackRock as an organization and then a bunch of others that are well respected, there's not a version of that that's reality. no there isn't um you know what i wish was happening in the market now though but more bigger dips more bigger dips yeah because you know i want a arch public to do something and we keep doing the like it it's like 2.9% drop in a six hour thing and i want that 3% drop or

something but it's actually beautiful because this is not getting me chopped up and buying stupid prices uh in the middle of a no trade zone well Well, to me, the story is, you know, you've got Bitcoin down five, six, seven percent for the year, you know, year to date. But if you're using our Oracle protocol of our algorithm, you're up, you know, 16, 17 percent. Same thing with Ethereum except Ethereum is uniquely, it's a much, much bigger delta there. So that particular delta says that, you know, Ethereum's down 18. percent or something for the year but if you were using our oracle protocol you'd be up a hundred percent solana down 20 something percent with our uh oracle protocol you're up 30 percent

so the the variance there is anywhere between 26 and 100 percent um using our tools so if you think about it this way uh if you're a if you're an ultra high network person you've got different versions of your portfolio, some of which is, you know, connected directly to, you know, the S&P 500 or the, or the market, let's call it. But then you have other portions of your portfolio, which are supposed to outperform in times of difficulty. Hedge funds, right? That's effectively what hedge funds are for and why they were invented. Thus, the name hedge. If the market is moving that part. Yeah. So people that if the market's moving violently one way or another, you want to be hedged so that you don't take that ride. That's effectively what our algorithms have provided all of our clients this year. Instead of being down those numbers that we showed on that tweet, alt's down 40%. Well, I don't know. Solana is quote unquote an alt. And it's down year to date, something like, 20-some percent if you were just a buy and hold from the beginning of the year.

But our algorithms would have you up to the tune of, you know, 27 to, I think, 33% on Solana. So the delta there, yeah, there you go. The delta is 60%. With Bitcoin, the delta's 25%. With Ethereum, it's 100%. With XRP, it's 51%. So you can take the ride, the quote unquote, buy and hold ride. or you can use tools which effectively perform the best when times are difficult, right?

Yeah, that's right. That's right. That's a fantastic view, by the way. Yeah. Gemini responding to you, almost like you guys are credible. So it's, by the way, and we say it all the time, but it bears repeating. um if you want to test all that out test those numbers right out it's free yeah a low low price of super free yeah go go go download uh our software get in touch with our team our team will treat you

like royalty and they'll set you up so that you have the outcomes that are shown in that uh in that case study you can also go look at the case study just under our support tag um yeah It says we're on YouTube because we're rich. Yeah. Maybe it's just a good product. Yeah. I mean, it, again. We're doing it transparently, like literally showing the results and doing it in a portfolio

and the goal is to get more of the assets. Yeah, it's been great. I just love that trolls. Well, you don't, here's the thing. The version of getting rich to the tune of 100x over a 48-hour period in crypto, those days are over, man. Those days are flat out over. And do it in silver instead.

Yeah, right. So how do you, quote, unquote, get rich when you're now working with the paradigm of, you know, traditional markets and somewhat traditional returns? You just do a great job of intelligently accumulating assets that you believe in, right? And so that's part of not shown in that tweet is, yeah, you have a big delta divergence of, performance to the upside for all four of those assets but more importantly you end up with more bitcoin than you started at the beginning of the year more ethereum more salana and more xrp you end up with a larger stack of all of those and the delta diversions of performance so um yeah it's extraordinary

stuff um the guy in the mind and the genius behind the creation of what it is that we do is not with us today, Mr. Tillman Holloway. And he's with us in the grander sense, just not. Yeah, yeah, he... We won't say, like, you know, like Tillman's no longer with us. It's not here right now. Yeah, he's gotten to the point where he's demanding that I call him the maestro.

I've not gotten there. But, you know, we'll get there at some point, the maestro. So, yeah, it's... I love our products. I love our people. I love our process. I can't think of another P-word to add. to that but uh i can yeah absolutely you can it's not appropriate um period period i will say i will say that i've uniquely enjoyed the year that we've had

together scott your show and your audience we absolutely love your audience wonderful wonderful people so to the audience out there hello and we love you at archpublic uh fantastic folks um And folks that are, you know, adults, reasonable people. We love having conversations with you and serving you. And we're going to be in New York at a pretty big event with Scott and some others. Yeah, tell me about it before I agree to go, but I'll be there. Yeah, it'll be. You know, talked about it last week.

And I was like, am I invited? You're like, of course, you're already going. Yeah. All right. Well, not only that, but we're going to have a pretty unique. weak sort of bourbon and spirits moment with Brown Foreman while we're there. Go ahead and Google Brown Foreman if you'd like. They're they're of scale when it comes to bourbon and other spirits. And so they're going to bring staff in and really put on a show for folks that that end up

attending. Is Bitcoin Investor Week? Is that the thing? Bitcoin Investor Week. That is correct. yeah yeah and so yeah we're excited to do it and uh we're going to put on our own show so to speak and we do we show up and then we pretend it's ours yeah we we put on our own version of a bitcoin investor week right like 9th to 13th i mean we had our we had our we had our own conference at the bitcoin yeah we had a conference in a conference that's for sure we have a conference and do bigger interviews that are happening on stage for like 30 or 40 people yeah it was awesome

Awesome. Yeah, well, that experience, too, it gave our people that are involved with Arch Public the opportunity to effectively rub shoulders, not only with you, but with Jack Mahler's, Bo Hines, Adam Bax of the world. Yeah. People that are, you know, venerable personalities and builders in the space. I mean, my goodness. Glad tenant.

Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. It was the real deal. And we're going to do it again. so yeah awesome stuff now is our time to leave yes we will not be here next week so next time you see and mine spaces together here will be in a new year so happy 2026 merry christmas happy kwanza marianna all and honestly whatever you guys are into that's okay with us you don't

touch so if you have another holiday that i didn't mention don't be offended that i didn't know about it And I support it. I didn't know what I was supposed to say about it, but I support the fact that you believe it in it. Thank you, Andrew. Tell Till Tillman, I said thank you, guys, sign up archipublic.com. Otherwise, we will see you extremely soon. We'll see you.

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