The Wolf Of All Streets - Halving Countdown: 11 HOURS LEFT! PUMP or DUMP? | Crypto Town Hall

Episode Date: April 19, 2024

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Hey man, can you hear how quiet it is here? I can't hear a thing where I am. I tried to find the quietest spot. I'm going to come, Scott, come to the interview place where I did my interviews. There's a room that has a, yeah, same place. There's a room that has an interview, interview in process. There's like a big sign that's on the door next to the tether guy. There's a door that says interview.

Let me tell you, bro interviewing process i have a massive room completely empty all for myself and no one's coming in because there's a big sign that says interviewing process do not ask whether i don't ask if i put the sign there or not just understand this thing if anyone listening we are we are talking 2049 um i just uh and we're gonna kind of have a back and forth me and scott on insight here. So first event I go to in a while, um, I'm not, uh,

an events person, but it's just been an interesting one. He, despite the floods, there's a lot of people here. I just have interesting discussions. Um, anyone in Dubai should definitely meet up and I've got my whole,

not my whole team, but about 10 people here and we can meet the team, meet the crew. Uh, I leave the event right after the space, hopefully. The Talking 2049 event, obviously there's other side events. So we should definitely meet up. Scott is here. He leaves tonight. So if you want to meet Scott, who's a more interesting person than I am,

according to Noble, according to himself, you can meet him as well. He leaves tonight. So you got to probably rush to meet him. We're at Talking 2049 now. And Scott, I just told you where I am now on the space with a million people here anyone in dubai probably i'm in the elevator yeah all right cool i didn't ask i'm saying like imagine people i forgot people are listening to us now so imagine we got gays audience members finding the room and walking into it but um just for the audience kind of talking 2049 is the numbers are pretty impressive a lot of people left um People that even landed in Dubai.

Me and Scott talk about Scaramucci, who literally landed and kind of turned the plane around and left. Despite that, the numbers are pretty impressive. The vibe is really good. Obviously, everyone's bullish as hell. I'll talk about the narratives that I've seen that are interesting. I did a panel with – the cool thing I want to talk about is the panel I did with Yuga, Magic Eden, and Pudgy penguins on nfts and i actually enjoyed this one a lot i really wanted to do it because it's um um you know and i moderated it so i can

be selfish and ask the questions that's why i love moderating panels because i like i don't give a about the audience i ask the questions i want to know the answer to and it was discussing something that wasn't getting the same traction uh yeah you know you can't be in the room with me though it's gonna echo but it's gonna you can go in it's fine you could use the same traction. Uh, yeah, Cabrillo, you know, you can't be in the room with me though. It's gonna echo, but it's gonna, uh, you can go in. It's fine. You could use the same phone if you like, but anyway, so we talked about NFTs, which no one talks about. And they actually said to me like Mario should talk about NFTs more often in the spaces. Uh, but we're talking about NFTs, which is obviously not,

the limelight is not there. The, the, the, the liquidity, the volumes and nothing compared to the bull market. But it was a really interesting discussion. And I think Scott was listening to that chat. Scott, do you remember that panel? Yeah, it was excellent, actually. And you filled that room, which was amazing, because there was about 50 people in there when you started and probably 500 by the time you finished. And I think Luca is just exceptional, right? As you even said in the panel, I was so skeptical about most NFT projects. I still am.

But when we had him on talking about Pudgy Penguins and Walmart and all the things they were going to do, the guy really blew my mind and continued to do so definitely on the panel. I have to say that just a second ago was like the most meta moment of my life when I just walked into that room and heard like a double echo of you on Spaces and you kicked me out because I can't do spaces standing next to

you doing spaces so I went into the next room to not be next to you while we were on the same spaces and and right before that I walked past Paolo Arduino from uh from uh Tether CEO of Tether outside doing like stuff on his computer and he has like 15 people around him and i and i jumped on him from the back and acted like i was going to use his computer and steal it and that was probably a bad idea um but you're you're first on the panel and on an ft ecosystem i think i like the what um i know we're going to talk about the markets and kind of shift away from talking 2049 but um luca padi penguins talked about the the the the one interesting aspect of nfts that he's uh he thinks will play a bigger role in the next few months and that's the

define nfts kind of overlapping we had the assess number one number two we had the yuga gentleman michael from yuga labs talk about gaming in-game assets being bullish on that um we had i think it was tiffany from the CEO, I think it was from Magic Eden, who's, by the way, five times bigger than OpenSea as an NFT marketplace, talking about various chains. I think we're talking about ordinals, obviously,

and base chain for NFTs as well, gaining momentum. So just a lot happening in that ecosystem. One, we barely talk about. One, most of the audience members right now don't give a shit about because one that's not pumping like me in coins and like just projects in general. But that was, yeah, an interesting panel. Scott, maybe your thoughts on not just the panel,

but just the event in general and any interesting narratives. And then we'll kick off a discussion on the markets. I mean, I've only been here for all of two hours like you, but obviously there's palpable high energy. discussion on the markets? I mean, I've only been here for all of two hours like you, but obviously there's palpable high energy. It's an absolutely gorgeous venue, incredible event. And everybody's here. It's one of those things where it seems like the entire crypto world converged. But it is interesting. It's the same narratives over and over again on every space, as every conference. RWA is the one I'm definitely hearing the most here.

I don't know about you, but Rigido, Real and Asset, all over the place. But to your point, listen, I've always been an NFT skeptic, but how dead that market is, but how excited the key people still are on it makes me feel like that might be one of those early, if you want to get into something

and take some risk early to get there again before it inevitably ramps up, assuming this cycle continues. You guys almost convinced me, which is tough. Yeah, and just maybe kind of slowly pivot to the markets as well, Scott. Your markets are doing pretty well today. I haven't even had time to check. Maybe a quick recap from the few minutes that you've looked at the markets, and then we'll go to the panel that's probably been there.

Yeah, last I checked, bitcoin obviously had popped to around you know mid 64 65 000 something like that if you've been listening to the spaces uh watching quite a few people you know we've been ranging i think between 60 ish and 74 ish at the top and of course there's mass panic at the bottom of the range. And we popped back off of it. Doesn't mean that the bottom is in or that we've reversed, but it was a, you know, you buy support and sell resistance as a trader. And instead, the world is, you know, bearish at support. I think that's what happened. Got a nice little pop. I would love insight from the panel as to why they think that may have happened. I think it's technical, you know, just traders trading. But, you know, I think that's really it. I haven't taken a deep

look at what altcoins are doing. I think it's just kind of everything's bounced still down and ranging generally from the top, but you can't always be making new all-time highs every day. I think we just are paying too much attention to the halving because everyone's talking about it, every panel's talking about it and there's even, I think, Watcha Guru's doing a live countdown for the halving with a bunch of metrics on screen. They're doing it

on Twitter. We'll have to get your thoughts, Dave Williams. No, I was going to say that yesterday yesterday i'm not sure how many noticed uh it was 10 o'clock uh eastern time when they were talking about the the attack um from israel to iran i got i got i got you see i got walking up for it like i'm sleepy as fuck because i was about to go i went to bed at 4 a.m they woke me up at at 4.45 a.m. because of the attack. But that's when everything dipped. I was watching it just before going to bed. And Bitcoin touched $59,800, something like that.

And Ethereum was down to $2,800. And then obviously everybody realized this was a nothing burger after a few hours. I mean, I went to sleep, I woke up, everything was back up again. So it was a remake of some jitters, but then shrugging off the geopolitical pressure. Yeah, for anyone wondering about this, the back and forth between Iran and Israel is over. The response by Israel is something not to worry about anymore. It's not going to have any impact on the markets in my opinion, and that's all news

for now. Yeah, but it did for a couple of hours, perhaps, and that's the irony of it, is that those jitters kind of are still there, but then as soon as the news gets a bit better, then boom, it recovers. Yeah, sorry, I cut out, someone called me.

But yeah, just what I was saying is that just the whole Israel-Iran thing is no longer news now, no longer important, not only for the markets, but geopolitically, the response was a lot milder than even I expected, and I was very optimistic. So we can put that behind us now. And Dave, I saw you on mute. Yeah, I mean, I think there are a couple of things that are important.

I think Scott actually nailed it with a tweet this morning talking about, you know, the inside out kind of reversal of support. But to break that down for the audience, I mean, understand a couple of things are going on. First, all day yesterday, and it was this morning before I jumped in the car, the markets have been trading with what people refer to kind of stupidly as a spot premium. What it really is, is a speculative discount with the perpetual swaps trading at a discount, which implies that speculators are more tending to be shorting the market than longing the market and that any gains are spotlit. So that matters. And when you have that and you get a flush at the same time like we had yesterday, it's ripe for a V reversal. We've seen several V reversals over the last, over this,

over our recent history. And pretty much every one of them, when it's a V reversal like this is somewhat of a confirmation and traders will create more, they will lean on that level significantly more. So the fact that we V reversed back through 60 so fast on relatively, I mean, I'd say relatively light volume, obviously our volumes were high our volumes were high. Volumes were high. But it wasn't a lot of, it was not disproportionately long liquidations the way that normally it would be. It was more people defensive positions. And that matters because those re-reversals do tend, I'm not saying, I'm not calling this as the bottom necessarily because obviously there's lots of things that could happen, black swans, et cetera. But absent a black swan, yeah, I'll say I think we saw

where the bottom is in this run. And I think that matters because those sorts of things do set up and end up getting a lot of airtime among technical traders. Carlo, I would love to give you the mic as well, and we'll go to Douglas. And what we're going to do as well, considering that me and Scott and Ryan are all in Talker 2049 and all the audience cares about is the halving and the market's response to the halving. We'll just keep it focused on that.

Go ahead, Carlo, and then we'll go to Douglas. Yeah, absolutely. First of all, I'm glad to see that Scott is turning on NFTs because I think his thesis is probably spot on. I think as we see more money and liquidity come in from the gains that people are going to realize in this bull run they're going to naturally want to flex and they're going to turn to og artists in the nft space and i think we will see a resurgence in in nft collections so spot on scott i like your analysis as far as the happening one of the things that isn't getting a lot of uh a lot of consideration is what it's going to do to gas fees, because we have runes, which is happening simultaneous with the halvening. And as people start to swap out these tokens, I think the miners are going to see a tremendous spike in gas fees. And it's going to be interesting

to see what that does to price action on Bitcoin. I'm curious to watch that. Joe, before Joe, I want to goouglas first douglas your thoughts um i think that you're right mario in terms of the uh iran israel certainly it felt we had an earthquake um a couple of weeks ago and last night was a tremor i think that you know there's certainly market sentiment that it's over and so that could mean there's a short-term bottom for sure when it comes to the markets though you don't fight the think. And as long as Larry Fink likes Bitcoin and Ethereum, I like them too. So one thing the team told me today, obviously we invest heavily in startups,

and they told me a lot of projects are delaying their launch, and the sentiment has just really changed. It especially shows how fucking bipolar we are as a culture. And, but what are your thoughts? And maybe Joe, you'd be a good person here, a bit more degen than us on the panel. Why that sentiment shift? The sentiment shift on?

Well, projects delaying their launch, exchanges telling projects to delay their launch, investors like fees not pumping as much, which again, it's not a bad thing, and that's a short term i'm talking very very short term now but i'm just genuinely curious like how do we shift so quickly we're about 60k and yet we still manage to have a sentiment that's no longer greedy within days for no particular reason um i'm just curious how you'd interpret that it's it's kind of to it kind of goes to what dave said like what this pattern we're seeing here is the same pattern we saw the previous cycle when

it was at 17k and everyone was saying was going to 12 and it confirmed the bottom with the v pattern and that's kind of what i'm seeing here just kind of plays into Dave. So everyone plays on emotion. A lot of people are calling that we need to touch 58. Also, don't forget, I think Runes is going to take a lot of noise. Like I always say, with marketing, it's hard. If you scream in a library, you get a lot of attention. If you scream at a festival, no one's going to hear you, right? And for the next week, I think it's going to be a festival. And I think a lot of the noise is going to be around ruins.

So it's going to really be hard to launch something outside of it and get the attention it probably deserves. So I think it's smart to delay. I don't know if people are delaying it because of price acting. That's just stupidity. Because I think we did confirm a bottom just now, at least if I'm looking at what's happened in previous cycles. Anybody else have specific thoughts on that?

I didn't raise their hand, but if not, I was chiming into the conversation, but I think we should pivot to actually discussing how much the having matters. In my opinion, I think it's sort of a, you celebrate and you cheer and then you move on with your life and wait a few months to see what happens. But I'm curious if any of you are hearing much about the having outside of our bubble, if it's reaching any meaningful level of attention

in the media besides sort of crypto native people trying to explain it to others. Andrew, are you hearing anything? Yeah. Interestingly enough, as it relates to this particular subject, I'm always interested in getting outside of the Bitcoin Twitter slash crypto Twitter bubble and what's going on out there. So I got a note yesterday from one of the individuals that, you know, is out there running around talking about their Bitcoin ETF with all sorts of wealth management organizations. And they sent me a little note that showed the CEO of a multi,

multi, multi-billion dollar RIA sent this person an email right after they individually bought into a Bitcoin ETF. And the nature of the email is, is, it's just really interesting that the educational arc that we're still on with, you know, even with what we think are smart people is really something that the nature of the email was, hey, I just bought some of the Bitcoin ETF. I'm really excited. You know, I'm going to have a lot of questions. I'm going to need your help, LOL. And this is the CEO of a tens of billions of dollar RIA. Right. So the halving conversation, you know, I hearken back to the likes of an Eric wealth management because, you know, the term having or for one, a two for one or four for one. It's about reducing the price. So there's a different conversation going on in traditional wealth management.

So, you know, for us, it's move on. There's a new set of math associated with Bitcoin that's generally been a positive three, six, nine months out. But there's a different conversation going on that's associated with adoption. And in this phrase, adoption is, quote, unquote, ownership across traditional wealth management spaces. And I and I do want to note a little slip up from Hunter yesterday when he said we love Stiefel and I'll just leave it there Mike I want to get your final thoughts on the market

and then we're going to wrap up update there and I mean Scott and Rand is about to leave the event so I think we've covered it pretty well just want to point out the key thing I'm concerned about is the first thing mario said is everyone is bullish as hell we've got an all-time new high we got that having's done today etfs were launched and everything that people and cryptos were talked about was right we

did get the all-time new high micro strategy got incredibly stupid expensive and i think the prudent people took profits are sitting back and waiting the key thing i want to point out is now bitcoin to me is completely bitcoin bitcoin 60 000 support is completely synonymous with s&p 500 at 5 000 today's a triple which it's not rich but it's option declaration we're hovering at that support and if the s&p 500 beta breaks down we should expect bitcoin to break 60 000 i hope it doesn't but what it's proving versus the most out of favor asset on the planet right now which is gold if you look at etfs is you always should focus on those that are out of favor and be

careful with when people are extremely bullish those are in favor so that's why i look at bitcoin now it's just be careful that that is happening and we have to watch beta because beta has a lot of reason to break this support. Remember, the VIX looks like it's just bottoming from a low that if you compare it to the T-bill, it was the lowest since 2007. If you look at the macro in terms of what's happening in bond yields, the best indicator of demand pull economic forces in the world, Chinese 10-year bond yield just dropped to 2.25%. That's the lowest in our database since 2005. So the macro for beta to me looks like it's way overdue for a correction. We all saw this coming. And if the beta correction continues, we have to see if Bitcoin can pass the test of beating beta.

And so far, it's succumbing to beta and gold's winning. So I think that's going to continue. And I'm worried that beta drops more. Dave? Yeah, the one point I'd make is people may be talking bullish, Mario, but they're trading bearish. And it's kind of the old thing. Oh, yeah, I'm really bullish. I'm really bullish. But in reality, when you look at the perpetual swaps trading at a discount, that's them voting with their feet the other way around. At tops, we tend to see the perpetual swap trading at a premium for extended periods of time. At bottoms, we see it trading at discounts for extended periods of time. Now, I'm not trying

to get people super excited here. I'm basically trying to tell people bottoming is a process, and this is what that process looks like in terms of Bitcoin. And Mike and I, every Monday, basically hash it out on this one argument about beta. And to a degree, he's certainly right. And we saw it last night. You saw exactly what we would both agree, which is people sell what they can sell, you know, when events happen. And there are a lot of people who were positioned and said, oh, my God, I have to sell. And so what you see, the knee jerk reaction, which is almost always wrong, but it was what they could sell. They sold Bitcoin.

And then, you know, when gold went up a bit, et cetera, and then everything reversed. That's not surprising. It's just understand it's a process. But, you know, when you say people are bullish as hell, you know, they may talk about it, but they're certainly not investing now. Joe? Yeah, thanks for having me on. So it's an interesting discussion.

I think the focus on the beta narrative is incorrect, given some of the data we've seen recently. I think the reality is if you look at the markets, and this is not just Bitcoin, right? This is traditional assets. You can go up and down, go look at the indices. Bitcoin's peak came first, right? Middle March. Thereafter, you got QQQ, the NASDAQ 100 peaking a few days later. You got the S&P a few days after that, the Nikkei, the Hang Seng, the Russell, they all peaked within a relative range. What did they peak after? They peaked after the middle of March when we got the revised numbers from the earlier CPI, PCI, and we got the February print in March of CPI. Those came in

over expectation. And that triggered a significant sell-off up and down the curve in the bond market, two-year out to the long end. And that sent shockwaves through the market. Right now, what is working, the trades that are working, again, the metals, you've got the commodities trading, they're all in a reflation trade. That's the focus. It's not a basis on volatility. It's what is the reflation trade versus the disinflation trade, which is let risk assets go up higher. And Bitcoin's part of that, right? Bitcoin trades closer to the Nasdaq, which I don't view as a negative thing.

I think it's a positive given the Nasdaq's track record. But it's just the reality of commodities and markets in particular are doing extraordinarily well in this environment where you have jitters out there in the market about inflation re-accelerating. That's the main message that has been sent across asset classes right now. And William? Yeah, in relation to the halving impact, one thing to keep an eye on is the ratio of miners' rewards versus fees for their revenue, because traditionally it's been all about the rewards. But as there are less and less blocks available with every halving and the mining difficulty

being going up, the transaction fees are going to be more interesting for them and increasing as a whole, especially in light of the ordinals activity and what rune could unlock in terms of increased applications activity in bitcoin specifically it's very possible that the transaction fees the rewards will be gradually less important. And that means less pressure for them to sell their Bitcoin. And that's something to keep an eye on. Sorry, William, I wanted to go to quickly Matt and then Stephen. It would be good to wrap it up there as well. Matt, can you just give us a quick recap on the ETF inflows and outflows? Your thoughts on that? I know we've done that a few days ago as well. But also, do you think the

halving will have any impact on that? Sure. Yeah, great to be on. I would add just a few quick things. ETF flows have been light. I know some issuers have had outflows. At Bitwise, we've had, you know, positive flows with one outflow day. But over any, you know, multiple day period, still significant inflows. I think the ETF market is still waiting for that second unlock of demand from the national account platforms, which is looking like a Q3, Q4. I'll say from the road, the halving really does impact the conversations we're having with advisors. Because while it's old news to us, it's still actually relatively new news to them. And it's such a simple story of this supply shock that we are seeing people rally around it and appreciate it. It's certainly

driven a lot of meetings for Bitwise, which sort of ties into what I think is the argument on the other side of the everyone is already bullish argument, which I agree, everyone in crypto is already bullish. And that's that I think the price of crypto is currently being set by people entering the market for the first time. So it's maybe less relevant than it was in the past how people within crypto are feeling and more relevant about how people outside crypto are feeling about crypto. And I still think broadly speaking on a multi-week or multi-month market, I'd say that they're warming to crypto. I mean, we're having incredible conversations from RIAs to family offices to endowments. It doesn't mean on a daily basis it can overwhelm sentiment, but I do think that's where the marginal price is being set,

is actually by people who don't invest yet. And so for that reason, I think it's important to think about how bullish are those people, and I think they're slowly getting more bullish. And do you think the ETF, we're seeing history again, repeat itself. We're seeing that in every cycle. How big of an impact do you think the ETF inflows or potential outflows as well will have on that cycle? My basic as a person who's not an analyst and who's not a trader, I just keep things simple and I think the corrections will be milder just because we have that institutional inflows coming in

and then the bull run will be more aggressive considering those inflows. Yeah, I think that's right. I think that's right. I do think it dampens the downside. It might cap some of the upside in that there'll be more rebalancing once the flows are, or once the holdings are a really significant part of the market. But mostly,

I think what it will mean is slightly lower volatility over time. And, you know, I think combined with the halving, you know, maybe it increases the sort of upside convexity of the market. But I do think they, the ETF flows are going to be the marginal buyer of crypto for the foreseeable future. And therefore, the sort of primary, long term price setting of the asset will be based on how those flows are going. I do think it's still that big of a story. Douglas, kind of wrapping it up with you and Stephen and others. Any comments, but more importantly, your expectations, what you expect from the next six to 12 months? Well, I mean, there's something I've been hearing here, and I think it's true is that there's a lot

of hedge funds, portfolio managers that are doing correlation analysis on Bitcoin versus the products that they trade. And when the products they trade are not trading at night, or they're not trading on the weekend, they're now hitting Bitcoin and using that as the hedge. Certainly, I used to trade Dollar Brazil, which was closed in Asian hours. But if something happened in Asian hours, I'd sell Kiwi or buy Kiwi as a hedge against Dollar Brazil. That has nothing to do with Kiwi. But I think that people are looking at Bitcoin as that. It's a liquid asset that's trading outside of market hours that has a correlation to assets that others hold during market hours and so it's seen as being that correlation hedge and i think that that's

the reason why you see bitcoin getting hits or going higher outside of market hours it's new players coming into the market now there's a liquid product to trade steven can you hear me we can yes we can yes yeah so i mean it's kind of anecdotal but one thing i noticed i was actually you were asleep but I was in our time zone. I was like watching it in real time. And it was like, you know, when you saw events in the past, and it was basically Bitcoin was kind of guided by the world. What events are you talking about, Stephen? World events, anything that was risk down right you know anything

that affected risk assets right you saw oh you would often see like i was expecting to see a huge wick down on bitcoin the fact that we didn't see that and the markets weren't even open um i think said a lot that means that like the volatility you volatility has definitely lessened and the people on this call right now are becoming, as we want to be, less and less important in terms of the volatility and the pricing of Bitcoin. I think this was an example that I expected this to go down to like $50 mean, when you're talking about a potential Middle East war, that's what it sounded like at a first. I agree. I think as we said, that concern is no longer there. Wrap it up, Dave, final question for you, Weisberger.

Your expectations over the next six months, posting you think you passed the halving. Well, I'm glad you gave me six months to answer that question, because my answer on the halving is very similar to Andrew's, which is there's a lot of lack of understanding in a lot of the new investors. And those new investors have representation, i.e. RIAs in a lot of cases who also don't really know, but are just kind of dipping their toe in the water. I always view the halving cycles as confirmation of the narrative of Bitcoin as a store of value. And there's always a fear, and you always see it, and Mike Alfred talks about this a lot, that, okay, this time the halving is going to happen and the miners are all going to die.

And the network is going to fall apart, and we're going to have this vicious circle and things are going to go badly. Now, is that a real thing to people really on this call? Anyone listening? I can't imagine anyone listening to this call actually believes in that narrative, but it's out there. And because it's out there,

the way the halving is, is it happens. The market starts to stabilize, difficulty levels adjust, and people see what happens. Bad machines, old machines go offline, et cetera, et cetera. It is non-surprising that the historical cycle, which is not statistically significant, but it actually makes sense, is such that a few months after a halving is when you see the next move higher. And the reason is because people come to the conclusion, okay, the network has

digested it well. There's nothing to worry about here. And on we go. And by the way, the supply is less on a daily basis. So I do think from the narrative perspective that having matters. So my expectation in the next six months is we will rally well past this all-time high into the six figures. And we'll see what's going on on the macro side when that happens. Absolutely. Awesome. Yeah, no, that's it.

Scott is not on stage because I intentionally removed him from stage so he cannot actually access the space again. I'm sitting in the car. He's sitting in the car next to me. So Scott, your final thoughts we've got the halving, it's imminent but I really want to, you know, we're spending too much time on it. What do you expect to see over the next six to 12 months? We were talking a bit earlier today on whether you think this space will be, sorry, this bull market will be short-lived. You kind of made it sound like this is a concern you

had. Was that a genuine concern? Do you really think there's a possibility that this market will be short-lived? I don't think that the market will be short-lived. This is very strange, by the way. I don't think it'll necessarily be short-lived at all. I think people are panicking because we're in a range and not making a new all-time high. But I do, from a risk management perspective, and admittedly, I think a lot of people have PTSD from previous markets. There's a part of me that says, what would happen if the top is in? And would I be prepared?

And I think that's something that should be in everyone's minds. But my base case is still that we have another 12 to 18 months of bull market. And it's just going to take some time and maybe we'll have another boring summer. We'll ramp up in the fall in a normal halving cycle. I have no idea better than anyone else. But if we hadn't have had the ETF, that's what everybody would be expecting. We'd be talking about the halving going by in four to six months of low volume and a boring summer. And then that would be it. We'd ramp up in the fall and up only. I don't know if patterns repeat themselves.

It's not really statistically meaningful that we've only had a few halvings. But that's what we'd be talking about without the ETF. So I'm going to keep that as my base case until proven otherwise. On that point, we'll end it. I appreciate everyone for joining us today. Anyone at Talking2049, hope you enjoyed the event, you know, stuck in floods.

And for everyone else, we'll see you again today, Friday? Yeah, I think so. I'll see you again on Monday. Appreciate you, everyone. Thanks a lot for the panel. Bye.