The Wolf Of All Streets - Here is What Will Happen When A Bitcoin ETF Is Approved

Episode Date: October 31, 2023

Bitcoin ETF can be approved any day, Matthew Hougan (Bitwise) and Steven McClurg join me to discuss how the approval process will look like and who will know it the first. Join if you want to be the f...irst one to learn when BItcoin Spot ETF is approved.  Matthew Hougan: https://twitter.com/Matt_Hougan Steven McClurg: https://twitter.com/stevenmcclurg ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEK DAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/   ►►OKX SIGN UP FOR AN OKX TRADING ACCOUNT THEN DEPOSIT & TRADE TO UNLOCK MYSTERY BOX REWARDS OF UP TO $60,000!  👉 https://www.okx.com/join/SCOTTMELKER  ►►TRADING ALPHA READY TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS? THE BEST TRADERS IN CRYPTO ARE RELYING ON THESE INDICATORS TO MAKE TRADES. USE CODE ‘2MONTHSOFF’ WHEN VISITING MY LINK.  👉 https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker  ►►THE DAILY CLOSE BRAND NEW NEWSLETTER! INSTITUTIONAL GRADE INDICATORS AND DATA DELIVERED DIRECTLY TO YOUR INBOX, EVERY DAY AT THE DAILY CLOSE. TRADE LIKE THE BIG BOYS. 👉 https://www.thedailyclose.io/   ►►NORD VPN  GET EXCLUSIVE NORDVPN DEAL - 40% DISCOUNT! IT’S RISK-FREE WITH NORD’S 30-DAY MONEY-BACK GUARANTEE. PROTECT YOUR PRIVACY! 👉 https://nordvpn.com/WolfOfAllStreets   ►►COINROUTES TRADE SPOT & DERIVATIVES ACROSS CEFI AND DEFI USING YOUR OWN ACCOUNTS WITH THIS ADVANCED ALGORITHMIC PLATFORM. SAVE TONS OF MONEY ON TRADING FEES LIKE THE PROS! 👉 http://bit.ly/3ZXeYKd  Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://twitter.com/scottmelker   Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.io   Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe   Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c   #Bitcoin #Crypto #Trading The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 We've been talking endlessly about the approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF. But what we haven't really dug into is the nitty gritty details of how those launches will actually happen. Who will find out first? How will we be notified? And how are the companies who approve going to actually market and sell those products to Wall Street institutions and, of course, retail? I've got two of my favorites, Steve McClure from Valkyrie and Matt Hogan from Bitwise here today to discuss because of course, they are two of them that are in line. You guys don't want
Starting point is 00:00:30 to miss this one. Also got John Wick on the back talking trading alpha, looking at some charts and trades. Let's go. that like button. Now, while ETF madness has subsided a bit, it was all we were talking about there for months, there's quite a lot still happening behind the scenes and obviously quite a bit of optimism as to whether or not we will get an approval. As you know, James Seifert and Eric Valchunas at Bloomberg have now said 90% chance that this gets approved by January 10th, I believe 10th or 11th. Of course, that date basically based on the last date for the SEC to throw up their hands and give up because of ARK, which they can't kick down the road any further. There's a sentiment that maybe a number of them will be approved at the same time. Mike Novogratz from Galaxy thinks that they'll be
Starting point is 00:01:45 approved this year and won't even wait until January. And Baltrunis himself has a steak dinner bet with another analyst saying that it will be approved this year. It would be a shame if he lost a steak dinner over 10 days of January, but I think that could happen. I'm going to go ahead and bring on the two guests today. I've got Matt, of course, and Steve, gentlemen, let's do it again. It's like deja vu all over again, right? We've been here before. So listen, oh, I think I accidentally, somehow Steve fell off. You're back. So listen, there's an article on Coindesk that I want to discuss with you guys, right? Obviously, you two, as we said, are in line. One of the pieces of news we can discuss today further is that Valkyrie has now amended a bit to update your
Starting point is 00:02:29 filing. But this article basically talks about what will Wall Street's Bitcoin narrative be? In other words, if you get approved, how will you sell this to Wall Street, to institutions? I had to laugh when I read all the narratives, so I want to go through them with you guys because I have a funny feeling that neither of you, since I know you pretty well, are going to be pushing these narratives necessarily to potential clients. Number one, if you hold Bitcoin in self-custody, your coins could be lost or stolen. OK, well, that is somewhat true, to be honest.
Starting point is 00:02:58 I don't think that everybody is equipped for self-custody. But Matt, I mean, is that a pitch you guys will be making? No, no, that's not going to be my number one pitch, Scott. I mean, look, I think what the people who write these articles don't understand is that the people that Steve and I are selling to literally can't self-custody coins on the behalf of investors. These are financial advisors. They may be actually banned by the bank or brokers they work for from holding Bitcoin today, or it just doesn't fit in their system. They would blow up their entire business trying to do that. What the ETF does is allow them to invest in the same way that the rest of us can invest today through apps or self-custody.
Starting point is 00:03:41 It has nothing to do with self-custody being bad. It's just literally, they can't buy it until we have an ETF and an ETF will unlock that. I remember the institutional narrative from the last cycle, actually two cycles ago, right? Where the institutions are coming 2018, 19, we had backed. Remember, they were backed by ICE and they were going to... And back then, I guess the notion was that Tesla and MicroStrategy were going to buy a bunch of Bitcoin and throw it on the ledger and hope for the best. We all know now, I think, that institutions can't do that. Right, Steve? You know what I tell people? Not your keys,
Starting point is 00:04:15 not your cheese. I encourage people to take their Bitcoin and custody it themselves on their own wallet outside of an exchange and outside of a fee paying product. But if you can't do it, we have the ability to do that with us. Right. Yeah, that makes perfect sense. I think that it's funny that this article is sort of entitled what the Wall Street narrative will be. But maybe number one, that was a narrative that you would tell to retail who's not ready for self-custody, but certainly not a narrative for institutions. Number two, if you hold Bitcoin on an exchange, your coins could be lost or stolen. True. I was going to say, maybe that's a yes. There's some truth there. There's some truth
Starting point is 00:04:57 there. I think we've experienced that in the last cycle. That said, I mean, there's a surveillance sharing agreement here largely with Coinbase. I think that there's a consensus among Wall Street that they're safe. But then the problem here, which is true, again, this is not an institutional narrative. This is a retail narrative. We have seen massive phishing attempts utilizing Coinbase and a lot of people hacked, not because of Coinbase or the exchange, just because it's a point of failure for retail who doesn't understand. I mean, how many times have you gotten an email? At this point, I feel like I get a text every day that's like, claim your FTX, your Gemini earn. I
Starting point is 00:05:34 don't even have these products, so they don't work on me. When Voyager bankruptcy went through, there was a phishing scam that went after everybody and their funds and got millions of dollars that people haven't talked about. So maybe even if the exchange is safe, there might be a narrative here that this is a better way for a lot of people, right? Steve, I mean, you jumped right in. You said true. Well, but here's the thing, right? It depends on which exchange you're using. And most exchanges are not good. I mean, I'm not running out telling people to hold their money on Celsius or Voyager, FTX. And that's the past.
Starting point is 00:06:19 I'm especially today not telling people to hold their coins on Binance. There's a lot of risk out there and and here's the dirty secret if you read the i don't know eight to ten whatever the number is you know bitcoin etf filings out there uh most of them use an exchange including us so uh to say that is you know sort of contradictory but there are some that are safe and there are many that are not. And I know for us, we've got a security team that evaluates every single exchange that we work with. And unless they pass our due diligence process, we don't work with them. Right, Matt. Yeah, I mean, I think that's a great point. The thing about self-custody or doing it yourself
Starting point is 00:07:03 is that you're relying on yourself to make all the right decisions and do the underlying due diligence which is great for some people and if they can do it then more power to them but if they can't do it they should work with someone like valkyrie or bitwise who is visiting those custodians who's conducting due diligence who's evaluating every exchange who limits who they trade from, because they have people who do it 24-7, 365, right? So there's that element to this as well. Isn't there some important nuance here as well? You're saying, obviously, if you hold Bitcoin on exchange, your coins can be lost or stolen. The agreements that you guys largely have are custodial agreements. This isn't about putting your coins in an account and holding it there to trade. So there's also the custodian side
Starting point is 00:07:48 of what Coinbase is doing and then the retail facing side of trading. You're not going to get phished on your custodial account. That is right. Any quality... You'll get phished, but there's security measures in place. Right, exactly.
Starting point is 00:08:04 Any good institutional firm will have high quality security and multi-party work to make sure that kind of thing doesn't happen. Right. So you will get more protections through the ETF by having you guys basically vetting it and then utilizing the most trusted custodians and through those steps. So partially that one is true. Narrative three, nervous about market volatility. Move into Bitcoin with a click. Okay, this one I don't understand at all because it's not saying Bitcoin isn't volatile, but it's based on Larry Fink, obviously repeatedly say now that Bitcoin is a flight to quality. Clearly he has a vested interest in talking the Bitcoin book right now, but frankly, I don't care. I'm just happy the
Starting point is 00:08:44 guy's out there and talking about this and on his roadshow, whether he believes it or not. But I don't see how the ETF solves market volatility. Am I missing something here, Matt? I don't think it solves market volatility, but I do think it can solve a portfolio problem. I mean, the people I talk to, the financial advisors I talk to, look at the stock market and it looks kind of gross. Look at the bond market and it looks kind of gross. And they're wondering where they can find strong secular growth trends that can deliver high returns for a portfolio. And I think an allocation to Bitcoin can do that.
Starting point is 00:09:19 Of course, it's volatile. 100%. But they are looking at a very weak outlook in many traditional assets. And so they're looking for new ideas. And I think Bitcoin is one of those new ideas. Yeah. And now that I'm rereading it again, I think what you're saying is correct. And that's what they're trying to say.
Starting point is 00:09:39 They just didn't say it at all in the article, is that you should hold Bitcoin in your portfolio because of the volatility of other markets. But I think that what he's saying, now that I'm rereading it as you're talking, is the old, you get some idiosyncratic risk from Bitcoin. So because of that, it improves your Sharpe ratio. That's not what it says, but that you should have something that has a chance of moving differently than the rest of the market in your portfolio. And you can now do that with an ETF. Yeah yeah i think that's what he maybe meant to say i think that's what they're trying to say well there is some truth scott and what you actually said originally and any time that you have a uh an instrument whether it's a security or otherwise uh that has
Starting point is 00:10:22 uh less access to capital markets, there'll be higher volatility and higher spread. Anytime you have an instrument that has more access to capital markets, you'll have less volatility and less spread. So when a Bitcoin spot ETF is finally released into the market, it will actually have less volatility than it did before because more market participants
Starting point is 00:10:44 will have the ability to trade it did before because more market participants will have the ability to trade it. Not sure everybody will love that who's come to love the massive upside and rapid runs. But yeah, and narrative number four, with Bitcoin available through regulated brokerages, there is no longer a reason for individuals to self-custody. We kind of talked about this one, but I think this once again is not going to be your pitch. I think it's just goofballs. I just think they don't know
Starting point is 00:11:10 what it's like to be a financial advisor. They literally can't do that. This is opening up 80% of the wealth in the world to access Bitcoin because they can't do it through self-custody. So self-custody is great by all means. But if you can't do it, here's anustody. So self-custody is great by all means, but if you can't do it, here's an alternative.
Starting point is 00:11:27 I think that's more the pitch. Hey guys, we've got an extra surprise. Eric Balchunas from Bloomberg just appeared in the waiting room. So we get, we, it's Steve. Don't shake your head.
Starting point is 00:11:37 You love this guy. What's up, Eric? You can't just put Eric on like that, man. Yeah, dude. That guy. I told the producer, you don't want put eric on like that yeah yeah dude look i i told the producer you don't want to see me like this uh i'm just that done the gym i'm about to go to a conference all day and i was like i think i should just have eric be in under with a black screen better than this but
Starting point is 00:11:59 you know i guess you require a camera todd yeah we were gonna actually just put like a board ape in your or like a pudgy penguin or something and then have you talk since we know that you're such an NFT maximalist in support. It would suit you well. We're kicking around the ideas of how these obviously, what narratives would be used to sell these. Now I'm actually interested, Matt, Steve, Eric, you'll probably know as well,
Starting point is 00:12:24 what will you actually be telling investors when this gets approved to convince them that they need an allocation to these spot ETFs? Matt, you can go first, then we'll go around. Well, maybe start with it's the best performing asset class in the world over the last 1, 3, 5, and 10 years. And it has low correlations to other assets. And it's one of the most exciting secular growth trends. I think I'll say that. I might also talk about it being a commodity and commodity prices being driven by supply and demand. And as you look out over the next year, you have a huge source of new demand from the launch of an ETF, and you have a 50% cut in new supply. And I'm a pretty simple guy, but looking at those two things makes me pretty excited about this asset class.
Starting point is 00:13:12 So those are some of the things I think we'll be talking to people about. So the pitch for a spot ETF is basically the pitch for Bitcoin, and now you can grab some. Go ahead, Eric. Let me jump in here. So Larry Fink says flight to quality. I don't know if everybody's going to buy that. I think that's not the pitch. In my opinion, the pitch is hot sauce. It's a great little dose of hot sauce because we have found over the years, portfolios have changed. Instead of chasing five-star managers until they become one star and then jumping on the next five-star manager, which is what people did in the 80s and 90s, everybody's just gone vanguard in the core. So they got this cheap beta core for almost no fee,
Starting point is 00:13:54 but it's boring. And they want to spice it up. This is where ARK lives, thematic ETFs, single stock ETFs, your Robinhood account, And I think crypto and I would embrace that I know it, you may want to be more legitimized as like, oh, we're, you know, like gold. But I do think crypto sometimes moves more like a risk asset still, maybe over time. But I just think there's a portion of a portfolio that is for experimental stuff, FOMO cures. And I think this is firmly where it will go more than say, in the alternative bucket, or especially in like, where you'd put Treasury bills. So that's my take on it. And but that's a viable lane, the hot sauce lane is, I'd say 10 15% of
Starting point is 00:14:41 the flows these days. That's pretty good. So that's where I think it will fit. Because again, and Vanguard will never get into this space. So it's like a Vanguard free zone. And people will use it to occupy themselves while they wait for their Vanguard funds to compound over 30 years, which is where the magic happens. Well, a few things. I love hot sauce. And if Bitcoin is digital gold, I've heard hot sauce, I think referred to as liquid gold so the gold narrative is intact uh steven what do you think yeah i'm actually not a i'm not a gold
Starting point is 00:15:12 narrative guy on this one um i i but it's it's sort of gold adjacent right so i i see this as really new economy currency and it it is a it is a currency that you can use between any country in the new economy, which is the digital economy, which is borderless, as we've learned through development teams. And when I originally got into Bitcoin, I had spent a year. Not many people know this. Matt, you may not know this. I spent a year working at Electronic Arts, the video game company. So I left financial services to go do that for a period of time. And I happened to be there when the iPhone came out.
Starting point is 00:16:00 But what I saw was these dev teams around the world that were working together to build things and one one dev team would hand it off to the next one to the next one to the next one and but this was pre-bitcoin and um there was so much efficiency in global teams building a product the only thing that wasn't efficiency was paying them because then you'd have a product that would say sell in the u.s and then you'd have to product that would say sell in the US, and then you'd have to pay these guys in their own currency that they would then outsource to developers in another country, and then they would have to convert to another currency. And when Bitcoin came out, it said, oh, it solves the problem. This is the currency of developers. And that's what it was
Starting point is 00:16:40 when it first came out. It was the currency of developers. They were able to pay people for projects back and forth. It was kind of a fun thing, but it was also a real thing. And now that we have a true global digital economy, it's something that just completely bypasses all geographic boundaries. So it's different and there's so much growth left in it. So it's a true digital currency that is just very different than gold. But it's something that you have to it's something that you have to own because of its anti-inflationary characteristics. Can I take my Bitcoin spot ETF cross borders if I'm a refugee or do I need my self-custody Bitcoin to do that? I want to ask you guys about something else.
Starting point is 00:17:27 And Steve, you mentioned this right at the beginning. There's this article, crypto funds see largest inflow in 15 months with Bitcoin's law on a leading rally coin shares. I had James Butterfill on last week. He said it actually been slow, but it picked up massively over the last week. Basically matched the entire year of AUM and inflows into these crypto funds in one week.
Starting point is 00:17:45 Now, it's only 300 and something million dollars. It's not really a huge number. His opinion was that everyone's still waiting for the ETF. So the real inflows will come when there's actually an ETF. But Eric, you can probably give us some color on this. But Steve, first, you told me right before the show that your minor ETF is seeing massive inflows, literally doubled in AUM, and that there's really this quiet interest in exposure to miners right now. Yeah, where we're seeing those flows come from is mostly institutional investors and a few financial advisors. And I think what they're doing is trying to get exposure to Bitcoin through an instrument that they can actually purchase, an ETF,
Starting point is 00:18:26 while there's speculation that a spot Bitcoin ETF is coming up. Yeah. I mean, Eric, are you seeing these inflows? Yeah. Ironically, the ETF that's going to get hit the hardest, and it may go extinct over five, six years, is Biddo. But that's the one seeing the most interest now. It's ironic. You're using Biddo to play approval of the spot Bitcoin ETF, even though Biddo is the one that stands to lose the most when they approve these things. But I guess get while the getting's good if you're pro shares. Because in the gold area, there was a gold futures ETF, and it actually just closed earlier this year. So it hung on by its fingernails for
Starting point is 00:19:06 about six, seven years. I think DGL was the ticker Matt Hogan may remember that one. And it just finally closed this door. So 100% of gold ETFs is in the physically backed spot ETFs at this point. The other thing on the flows, it's interesting. You know, I look at what happened. last week was crazy and i i think my my twitter feed fed into it a little bit um basically the gbtc court ruling saying we just agree with what we said was part of it but then this guy named marty party music i'm i'm hat tipping marty party music that's how crazy it's gotten gotten here. But he found that the bit black rock one was put on the DTCC.
Starting point is 00:19:48 Now it doesn't mean it's approved, but seeing the ticker, seeing the QSIP and seeing it alongside live ETFs on that sheet, I believe sort of made it all feel real. It's just like, wow. And it's black rock. I mean, obviously I think that, and then Larry Fink was right on TV. I think there was a couple of things that led to excitement that week, because I think that's the week. I think for many people, it was like, okay, this is really happening. BlackRock isn't the kind of company to fool around. It's still not approved. But to me, that that's part of what happened last week. And I don't blame anybody. I mean, it is real. It may not happen tomorrow, but it's on its way. We're looking at maybe under 10 weeks at this point for approval and then subsequent launch.
Starting point is 00:20:33 Unless, again, there's this epic, crazy, sadistic rug pull by Gensler, which we are still leaving a 10% chance for. But outside of that, we're on the home stretch here. We all very much love the sec here we have nothing but favorable things to say about them um notable here's your tweet bito traded 1.7 billion last week second biggest week since it's wild week one so that tells you everything you need to know about the interest here gbtc did 800 million that's 2.5 billion top one percent among utfs into two less desirable methods versus spot exposure. So as you said, people are still going for the thing that they can get their hands on,
Starting point is 00:21:11 even knowing that this is likely coming. I mean, Matt, is that the right sort of framing for that? That's absolutely right. You also saw CME Bitcoin futures interest spike massively and is creeping right up on Binance. It's soon to be the largest derivatives platform in the world for Bitcoin, which is pretty amazing if you think about that. I don't know how many people had that on their bingo card at the start of this year. And it just shows where this market is going. So absolutely everyone is rushing in to get in
Starting point is 00:21:41 ahead of the ETF. I still think it's not fully priced in. I still think there's more rushing in to do from people. But you started to see it last week. I was the king of Mr. Priced In. I thought that until we saw that Monday with the fake simple tweet from Cointelegraph and a $2,000 move while we were live here in 10 minutes. And I think maybe I was wrong. Eric,000 move while we were live here in 10 minutes. And I think maybe I was wrong. Eric, I can tell you have a comment. Go ahead. Yeah. Um, I was just curious. Um, I heard some of Matt and Steve's comments earlier, which were really great. The advisor
Starting point is 00:22:15 thing was, was interesting in the hacking thing. I get asked that a lot. Um, in terms of day one, week one, um, I'm curious where both you guys stand. I mean, I've come around to the, we've sort of changed a little bit. We always thought it'd be the biggest launch ever, but we thought that back in 2021 when Biddo launched, we, you know, we said, man, and that was the biggest launch ever, Biddo, at least in volume and getting to a billion, which are the two main measures. I don't think this will top it oh I think it will be more muted because the mania is over um it's sort of like that John Mellencamp song you know um life goes on after the thrill of living is gone and the thrill oh yeah the thrill
Starting point is 00:22:56 of living was in 2021. everybody was like half to have Bitcoin it was like robot eyes that's over I do think long term this is a great bridge but I just don't think there's going to be a mania kind of rush for it on day one week one, and especially if they're dispersed amongst many, but I think even if you add all of them up that launch on day one, I don't think you get to a billion dollars trading on day one. And you know, maybe you get there in a week. But I would see this more as a hit product, a hit launch, but not record setting
Starting point is 00:23:26 curious where where you guys stand i mean our experience our our experience around the uh bitcoin futures launches i mean what was crazy is we were second out of the gate and i think we were something like what was it eric 14th largest of all time and we were the second one out of the gate, and I think we were something like, what was it, Eric? 14th largest of all time? And we were the second one out of the gate, which is crazy. But all the flows that we saw. That was 2021, though. Yeah, yeah. It was top of the market.
Starting point is 00:23:55 But all the flows we saw looked like retail standing at the gate. That's what we saw. And then it was slowly replaced with advisors and others. So I think that this launch is going to be a lot more heavy on the financial advisor and even on the institutional side to a certain extent. I think there's going to be some initial interest on the institutional side. And then it's going to be replaced with, okay, now that there's a Bitcoin spot ETF, we're not really going to be buying ETFs because insurance companies and pension funds don't buy
Starting point is 00:24:31 ETFs. They buy private products and they'll start moving to the private product side. Shouldn't they just get the flows from the futures, as you said? I mean, shouldn't there be a meaningful amount that comes out of futures and goes into spot or no? Well, yeah, that will happen too um which is which is why we we kind of moved away from a pure bitcoin uh futures etf i i think all those i think anything that's a pure bitcoin futures is is gonna be pretty much dead um so you know i think bitto takes a little bit of time before that happens but um you just won't see flows there it's it's It's inefficient compared to spot.
Starting point is 00:25:06 But I do think that there's about $10 billion waiting to come in. That'd be pretty big. Yeah. I'm more aligned with Steve. I think there's more interest maybe than you think. I think the quietude of the ETH futures launch had to do with the conditions of the market and the fact that retail doesn't disaggregate Bitcoin from Ethereum in their mind. It's all just crypto. I do think you saw as the excitement built how quickly that could happen in the Bitcoin space last week after that tweet and the subsequent run up. So I think if we're in a positive market phase, I think the reception could be very big. And I think, of course, the wild card is GBTC
Starting point is 00:25:51 and what's going on there. And I think that will dramatically impact what that day is like as well. Yeah. I mean, BITO, to be fair, and CME and CBOE Futures all launched right into the dead top of the market. I guess we can debate whether they launched into the top of the market or they caused the top of the market. There's a lot to be discussed there. We won't talk about it now. A week ago, this market seemed, two weeks ago, this market seemed very muted. But actually, I think we're back into a very optimistic place and that maybe conditions have changed massively in the last 10 to 14 days on sentiment and what the success of this launch could be. Eric, you probably have more insight to me, certainly into John Cougar Mellencamp. But it does feel like to me, maybe you're muted and
Starting point is 00:26:40 you should be more optimistic. Yeah it's funny quoting jung cougar mellencamp my kid calls me a boomer i'm gen x but i've definitely just got the boomer label to anybody watching um uh yeah i grew up with that song that's why it's uh and that's a good line it's a good line you know after you grow up you know you still live even though every day is not thrilling anyway it's good philosophy anyway um i think it applies to bitcoin you know that that mania is over but it goes on it rolls on and i think it's just the more measured future uh anyway um look i don't there's not um i forget the question yeah how do you feel about james Harden going to the Clippers?
Starting point is 00:27:28 I mean, who's going to take the last second shot now? It's not Embiid. So we lost our clutch gene. So I'm a little contrarian on that. But anyway, you know, I think were you asking about the sentiment on? Yeah, I was just saying maybe you should be more optimistic because the market has improved over the past few weeks. And if we're talking about literally sentiments around the market, we all know that, I mean, listen, everything in Bitcoin hype is driven by price, no matter how much we want it to be or not. I mean, Mike Saylor said it really well,
Starting point is 00:27:59 I thought, about two weeks ago. He said, listen, if you have Larry Fink and Fidelity declaring Bitcoin an asset class and they're about to open up an ETF, that is about as serious as it gets. So again, like Stephen said, I don't think there's a thousand little minnow retail investors waiting at the door like there was in 2021. Many of them probably got satisfied
Starting point is 00:28:22 or they're once bitten, twice shy. But I do think if you have he's got so many like references oh my god anyways yeah go ahead i i didn't even mean to reference that it's been i know you were just saying it but you go hold on can you name the band was that motley crew or uh it's one of them this is like jeopardy level 400 here and yeah i knew this one great white that's great white great white yeah sorry okay anyway but i i think the uh the advisor market like steven said is the one that's to watch here but again they i don't think they they're not rushers i think over time especially as one starts to get liquid, they'll move in.
Starting point is 00:29:05 But obviously, I think cost is a factor. But the idea that you're going to have – I just don't see the day one pop. That doesn't mean optimism isn't there. So I would be a little lower than Biddo, and it's day one, even if you collectively end up – I'm going to put it out there on Twitter now that you're a bear. He's very bearish. Just kidding. No, no. I'm kidding, Eric. I'm kidding. I think you have actually a very measured and probably accurate approach, to be honest. It's just fun to talk. Go ahead, Matt. I think that may be right. I mean, it's worth noting there are two
Starting point is 00:29:38 groups that usually rush in on day one on ETF launches, which is self-directed retail and then sophisticated hedge funds. And I think it's reasonable to say is self-directed retail and then sophisticated hedge funds. And I think it's reasonable to say that self-directed retail is probably largely in, although there'll be so much media coverage of this and so much BlackRock Bitcoin on the front page of the Wall Street Journal, that there may be some of that. I think the interesting question is what the large hedge funds do and what they think of this space and whether they embrace it as a trading tool in day one or two. I think by month one, it's going to be vastly bigger than Biddo. I think the one mistake people make here is assuming we're in like the seventh inning of Bitcoin's development and not realizing we're actually like in the second.
Starting point is 00:30:23 This is a bigger, earlier step than many people think. So I think month one, I'll give it to this ETF. Yeah. I'm actually with you. Day one, when I think about a launch, I think about the first 30 days. Right. Good. Day one, Eric's probably right. Month one, $10 billion. billion most successful ever so we just get to move the goalposts see eric said it's based on volume and fastest to a billion but
Starting point is 00:30:52 now we're saying it's based on what happens in 30 days i like it oh by the way at the end of year one i think we're at 20 billion i agree eric final thoughts I know I've kept you guys over. Hold on. Year one? He said year one, $20 billion. Yeah, because there's $20 billion in GBTC, $1 billion in BIDO, and then some unlocked advisor assets. Yeah, I could see a $20 billion in one year. And one month, $1 billion or $2 billion seems reasonable. So I'd be in that ballpark. I like it. I like it. Thank you, gentlemen. I appreciate it. We could do this for days.
Starting point is 00:31:33 Eric, you're allowed to go get back on the treadmill or the elliptical or whichever you go row. I don't know what you're doing in there. What's your preferred cardio machine, Eric? Oh, I'm an outdoor jogger. I don't do it. I just jog outside the grounds and then but went to the gym for some uh shoulder weights i'm somewhat convinced that uh people who i hate treadmills yeah i'm i'm convinced that people who run on purpose have something wrong with them but i'm happy for you i need it for my my mind half as
Starting point is 00:31:55 much as my body i just like it clears my head and i've got to go i got a conference all day i just i need this well gentlemen oh, one last thing, Steve. We do have this I wanted to ask you, and we didn't. So Valkyrie Funds joins a prospectus amendment train for their spot, but KWATF still moving behind the scenes. Can you just give us, like, the two-second version on what happened there and why you did that? Just to do it. I'm going to say this.
Starting point is 00:32:19 This is going to upset a lot of people. It really means nothing. I mean, the's fine. The SEC provides comments and people respond with those comments, with the filing. And then there's probably more comments to come. So, um, you know, I, I, I think, you know, I think a lot of people want this to mean, Oh, we're getting ready to go. And, uh, it's like, no, we're just getting ready for our next round of comments. Well, hold on though. Hold on. Hold on.
Starting point is 00:32:46 The reason that matters in my opinion, Matt, Steve may have a different, is every single time they've denied, it's been radio silence up to denial. Well, I'm a pattern guy. The pattern was broken. And had we heard nothing, I think our odds would be much lower. I think that's a big reason for the odds and some of the back channel things we heard but the fact that they're asking about like nav calculations and like wallets and you saw the we the one we really analyzed was the arc one because it was the first one some of the stuff they must have asked about was ultra specific so yeah that seems to be a good sign it's not like they're saying like oh uh we just care about custody what about custody because we
Starting point is 00:33:28 thought that might be a reasonable denial but if they're actually looking at like 15 different things as specific as navcalc seems like that's a pretty good sign because that's like dotting t's and crossing crossing t's and dotting dotting eyes do you think there'll be another round are you expecting like multiple rounds absolutely i mean i i so i mean running out though all i've ever done is launched esoteric ets and i've never seen one where there's only one round of comments and did you do a spot one last time did this is your first spot oh spot bitcoin i mean we filed that yeah yeah 20 january 2021 and this is the first round of comments for that my point is other etfs right it's like yeah right other ones yeah different well that but that's the point is that it's it's routine that's i think anything routine in this case is probably good yeah well
Starting point is 00:34:22 we're getting into a routine but but i think what's happening is people are now – you're absolutely right. When the comments first came, it's like, oh, okay, we're serious now. And we'll talk a little bit about government work. I don't know if you guys have ever worked for the government or have family that works for the government. The government doesn't work past five, and it doesn't work on weekends, and it doesn't work on holidays, and it mostly doesn't work past five and it doesn't work on weekends and it doesn't work on holidays and it doesn't work over over december so if if if the government gives you something to fill out that then they have to review then that means that they're actually doing something right that's not that's not a nothing right so so so number one that that was meaningful but i think what the speculation is is oh all these people are getting their new filings in because we're about to get approved.
Starting point is 00:35:06 That's not the case. There's going to be there's going to be more rounds. I mean, there's there's there's there's no doubt there'll be more rounds of comments. Well, let me ask you this, then. You know, we're now nine weeks away from January 10th. State time for you, buddy. That doesn't matter to the government. Well, OK, so, OK, well, no, this is important. Well, okay. So, okay.
Starting point is 00:35:26 Well, no, this is important. Let's go over the scenario then. They're not, they're in, they think they want 10 rounds of comments and they're on round three. It's January 5th. Do they prepare a denial letter for ARC then? So let's go back to maybe, let's go back to something else really quick. A lot of people are speculating that the SEC is going to approve this week, right? Breaking down the timeline.
Starting point is 00:35:50 If the SEC approves this week, then that means they're working over Thanksgiving and Christmas to get ready. Right. I think the SEC needs a full 30 days after, after Christmas break. So that 30 days minimum. So. Full 30 days, minimum. Can they go over January 10th without providing a denial to ARC whose deadline is due? They would have to deny ARC, correct?
Starting point is 00:36:16 They could. He's just saying they would. But what would they deny them on? Wouldn't that set up a whole round of lawsuits then? If they go back to fraud or manipulation? Yeah, it absolutely could set up a whole... Or they pick custody. But then if they pick custody, they can't approve the rest. I think it's reasonable to think that the SEC can architect the world however they want it to turn out Eric uh so they could tell ARK to withdraw and refile uh they could they could do anything
Starting point is 00:36:51 they want but I do think people on the outside should view the fact that prospectuses are being updated as a good thing they should watch to see when issuers fill out the prospectus in full and fill in all those blanks around AP agreements and custody and pricing, et cetera, that will be a positive signal. But I'm with Steve. We still have spaces to go. I still think January 10th is a good deadline to circle, but anything can happen. That's why you're at 90% and not 100 yeah i like by the way i don't disagree with you i think i i think i think it will get approved by them but um i don't think that the government is any way forced to approve anything by them so there's the 10 yeah yeah but i still think
Starting point is 00:37:40 you're getting a stake to be there you go yeah go. Yeah. Well, I told people if as days and weeks go past January 10th, our odds would creep up. They would just keep – unless, again, the 10% is a denial letter on January 10th that is a complete rug pull that says custody. Everybody just gets whacked out like dominoes. That would be like a massacre that would live in infamy. I think if that were to happen, it would be more like, hey, we can't hit that game. You guys might want to refile your 19B4. Yeah. That's the kind of narrative that I would expect to hear. It's interesting, though, if you're i just feel like that's you really get
Starting point is 00:38:27 the short end of the stick there why is that nobody's ever got the short end of the stick from the sec eric now for crazy you followed first you have this legit deadline i think first van eck is first that's that's that's a narrative that's out there, right? Just because 19B4 means nothing. The S1 was filed first by VanEck. Their first. The 19B4 is required for this, though. It's required, but there's never been an order based on 19B4 filings. There's always only been orders based on S1 filings.
Starting point is 00:39:03 Yeah, I don't know. I'm going with January 10th. I like it. The 14-7-D is not aligned with the 19-4-7-Q. Yeah, I mean, I get it. SEC is God here. They can do what they want, but I don't know. It just seems like
Starting point is 00:39:17 that is a real deadline, and I guess they could tell ARK, but I mean, what if ARK says no, uh the famous ball shares guy i you guys are way above my pay grade now but that's why i now i have eric and steve interviewing each other and i love it but uh i do have to go soon okay all right all right we can talk offline yeah well we'll discuss offline because I got to bring on John to talk about some trades here. Eric, thank
Starting point is 00:39:48 you for showing up. I literally just saw the private chat where you're like, dude, can I not use my camera? So thank you for showing us your glimmering, shining face this morning. We do appreciate it. You look great, man, and you're going to look even better after you get that steak. Thank you, gentlemen. Always a pleasure. Matt, Steve,
Starting point is 00:40:04 Eric, everybody follow them. Thank you, guys. you guys. All right. Wow. That was awesome. I enjoyed the back and forth there. It just illustrates to me repeatedly how complicated this process is. And even the people in the weeds have to debate about what the SEC might do because they suck at offering anyone clarity ever, period. Happy Halloween, by the way, guys. I'm going to go ahead and bring on Wick. We're going to talk some trading, alpha, add some charts, man. Guy has been absolutely nailing trades and ideas over the past couple of weeks. What's up, Wick? How are you, man? Hey, Scott. How you doing, man? Glad to be here. Yeah, we decided to keep you in the wings there for so long that that one sort of went on its own, but you got to let it happen. It was a great
Starting point is 00:40:50 conversation, man. It was good. It was good. One of the things that I didn't hear them talking about was there's a lot of central bank action happening this week. This morning at 1 p.m., we had the Bank of Japan. In in fact let me pull up this chart real quick and we can start on this yeah please just go ahead and share the screen down there see everybody's everyone's in the comments talking about my halloween party yeah we had a big halloween party this weekend it was fun well he's getting his charts ready it's a good time just let me know when you're ready there meanwhile I'll show you guys a picture from my Halloween party
Starting point is 00:41:28 this was my family we had I was Justin Timberlake my wife was Britney Spears in our denim my daughter was Madonna doing the Vogue and my son was Michael Jackson up on his toes I saw that it was cute it was nice it was a good time yeah we we ended up with a massive monster
Starting point is 00:41:44 out of control Halloween party at our house till like midnight it was pretty awesome It was a good time. Yeah, we ended up with a massive monster out of control Halloween party at our house till like midnight. It was pretty awesome. It was a good time. We were raging outside with the DJ and stuff. It was a good time. Is that can you see my screen? Is it up there? I can't.
Starting point is 00:41:55 No, I can't. So you got to go down to present. You see that? Share screen. Oh, there you go. All right. You're up. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:42:03 There we go, guys. Okay. So this week we got a lot going on, right? We got the Bank of Japan that you can see here that they have to do something, right? So obviously it wasn't a good reaction, but whatever the decision was this morning, we also have the US Fed tomorrow on Wednesday. We also have the Bank of England on Thursday, and then we also have non-farm payrolls for the US on Friday. so it's a very very busy week as far as the central bank's concerned so that's one of the things that i'm
Starting point is 00:42:30 looking at looking at i'm looking at the reactions to all these decisions that are going to be being made and the market is watching particularly for you know how long are we going to stay in this high rate environment i think that's the main main kind of takeaway here from watching this week go by. So I just wanted to present this chart here because I've been watching this one for a while. Let's move over here to the S&P futures here. Okay, let's talk about- Yeah, really quickly, just to interject there, it's very important people to understand. I mean, I have right here the Japanese bond yield, 10-year going up. They've had yield curve controls for like a decade or more in Japan. It's very, very big news that they're allowing these yields to run. It means that they're off
Starting point is 00:43:14 yield curve control and anything can happen here. Go ahead. Well, yeah. In fact, I'm glad you brought that up because this is the last time over here that they did yield control. So now that we're at this inflection point again, this is why I've been watching this chart and this is the last time over here that they did yield control. So now that we're at this inflection point, again, this is why I've been watching this chart and this is why I have this box up here. Yes, it is resistance, but it's also the same inflection point in which they did that active, uh, yield control. Right? So obviously it's not working, uh, whatever decision they made.
Starting point is 00:43:37 I didn't, I didn't see it, but cause I watched the charts, but, uh, it's not having a great reaction. So obviously they're willing to push it further before they step in here. Okay. When they do step in, it's a, it's not having a great reaction. So obviously they're willing to push it further before they step in here, okay? When they do step in, it's a good thing. Moving on here to the S&P futures, Scott. Let's look at this S&P futures. Right now what we're doing is we're going through a volatility squeeze, okay?
Starting point is 00:43:57 I've mentioned this before. That's the box, correct? That's the shaded box, right? That's the shaded box, the squeeze, the shading that you see here. Whenever the shading appears, it lets, the shading that you see here. Whenever the shading appears, it lets you know that there's a violent move coming, right? And it's normally followed by an arrow either up or down to let you know which way the breakout is happening. So before we talk about this right here, let's look at what's happened in the past when we've had these shaded squeezes, right?
Starting point is 00:44:29 So starting here, you can see that it performed a really big move to the upside. It did it again here, here and here. Okay. So when we're looking at this one here, now it's the first one to the downside that we have, we've had in a while. It's not looking too good for the S and P 500. Okay. And the S and P 500 is also a lot weaker than the, uh, than the NASDAQ, which I'll show you next. One thing that we can do is look at this 200-day moving, sorry, this 200-week moving average, and I think this might be the target. If you had simply bought every time that you got to this 200-point moving average, it would have been a really good buy point. So if you are one of those people that likes to average in on the S&P 500, the SPY, SPX, then you might want to look to this area possibly, because I think the squeeze breakout could target this area. Normally, when we have a big bar like
Starting point is 00:45:11 this, you look for the next candle to least close 50% upside if we're going to revert. But while we have red dots in a squeeze, you never want a long list, you want to wait for that to end. And again, I'm thinking we target this area here. We can do some- Like 380, 390, right? I'm not looking at it, but it's 380, 390-ish, right? For SPY. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Go ahead. And what I like to do too is take these swing lows to the swing high sometimes, right? If you want to do projections and kind of see where the price action is, you can see here that it's broken down past this three, eight, two level, right? And look, what's in confluence though, with this six, one eight. So I'm looking for it to actually tag the six, one eight, which is in confluence. It's a very popular area for the, for the SMP to
Starting point is 00:46:00 pull back to. So I think this is where I'm looking at this, right? But you can see how it's broken past that 382 level. And the reason why I'm mentioning this is because if we look at the NASDAQ, I know that you and Rob Paul have been talking about, you know, Bitcoin. And I think one of these places also the Q's, the NASDAQ, that's what I'm watching to look at this right here. If we take the fibs, right, just like we did did on the s p 500 from swing low to swing high this is actually not even broken through this 382 level yeah so the cues are holding up much much better and it's obviously because they have the uh that the tech on their side right we are also going through a squeeze breakout to the downside which has brought us right to this level okay so i'm watching to see if this level breaks, if it does break.
Starting point is 00:46:45 Okay. We can probably look again, close to this 200, 200 a week moving average. Although I, um, the cues really like to come down to this 50% mark. So I think I'm going to look at this to see if it breaks. I'm not sure if it's going to reach that 200 week moving average. Like I think the S and P 500 is, but if you're in stocks, I know half your audience is in stocks, maybe be a bit cautious now. I never, ever, ever, ever go long when you have a squeeze breakout and you still have red dots. These red dots are the micro trend. Until that trend dynamic changes, it's a very, very bad probability that this is going to work out in your favor if you long here. So now let's move over, Scott, to Bitcoin, right? Really quickly. I just want to interject just really fast. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:47:31 Because I'm looking at something over here and I want to show people what I think is very much in confluence with what you're saying right now for some reason. Oh, let me, sorry, I'm sharing the wrong one. One second. See, I did it too. I switched my screen. One second. Yeah. So as you kind of mentioned, it's big tech that's been carrying this. I think big tech is breaking down massively here, right? This is NVIDIA breaking a key support right here. Basically, I mean, we'll call it 400. It's 400 and 311, but you could even take this way, 399. You've got this breakdown. And I've been, I circled squared this, guys, for you guys on the run up. I said, listen, I think it fills this gap down to 318. So I'm not looking to touch
Starting point is 00:48:11 any of this. Meta breaking the 50MA, testing it as resistance, wicking back up through resistance. I mean, all of these seem to be massively breaking down. Google, obviously, with the massive gaps down. If we think that big tech has been what's been driving the NASDAQ strength, I think that almost every one of those FANG stocks is showing tremendous weakness. 100%. And I'm glad you brought up NVIDIA. It's actually one of the only plays that I'm actually long in right now. It is a hedge position, call it collar position with options. But on that NVIDIA play, it hit our targets. And then when we hit that high, which was my target months back, I said that I would only look at it if it pulled back to the 400 area and I wanted a good reaction off that 400 level. So I've actually called that
Starting point is 00:48:57 really, really well. And I'm glad that we're at the 400 level. I just wish that we would have a positive reaction because unless we get some green dots and a change in trend dynamic, there's no long there for me. I'm just going to keep my hedge on. But no, absolutely, Scott. I really think that is why everything's breaking down and why maybe the Qs are a little bit stronger than the S&P. But in general, the Qs naturally- Oh, it's been absolutely crushing the S&P and Dow. 100%. Absolutely. Yeah. In fact, back in the day, they used to tell people, if you want to invest in stocks, just do it the safe way, just average in on the S&P 500. When I talk to family, I actually tell them the news. Yeah. I've been telling them the NASDAQ for
Starting point is 00:49:41 years because you get a better return on the NASDAQ, in my opinion. You want to jump to Bitcoin? Yeah, please. Sorry. I didn't plan to interject, but it's a really important point. If those things fall, man, it's going to get ugly. Yeah, exactly. So stocks aren't looking that hot right now, right? But on the contrary, Bitcoin is completely uncorrelated right now and it's doing its own thing, right? If you look at this, right, and you just look at the price action left to right, you cannot tell me this isn't a bull market, right? That's 130% gain from the bottom. Is this the parabolic move that we want? Probably not, right?
Starting point is 00:50:16 But this is a bullish environment. If you look here right now, what happened, Scott, on this last setup, okay? Again, we have this shaded area. These are our squeezes. When this happened, we have this shaded area. These are, these are our squeezes. When this happened, we had gone from a basing stage one pattern. We had put in a bottom, you can see here with the B bottom indicators here, our double bottom pattern. We had printed green dots that let us know the trend dynamic was all of a sudden changing after this stage four bear market downtrend. And this is where we had our stage two breakout. This is what you want to catch. If you're a trader, if you're a trend trader, the whole goal of trading
Starting point is 00:50:50 for you is to catch what I call stage two breakouts, these green dots that start after you put in a bottom. Okay. You get the bottom bees, you get a green dot that, but you know, the trend dynamic is changing. This is what you want to catch. However, once we made that high and we hit our supply zone that I've had here for, gosh, over a year now, we did get a rejection, right? And this put us into what I call a stage three basing pattern, okay? Consolidation, right? When you're in consolidation patterns, we'll notice that the price action will go up and down and you will see green and red dots because it's consolidating.
Starting point is 00:51:28 During the stage three basing pattern, the only thing you can do is play ranges. The good news is we did get the shaded squeeze, gave us a lot of warning, and we're finally seeing that breakout arrow from that squeeze. This is volatility that's being released in a major move. Now, remember, these volatility squeezes, when you get green dots following them for the breakouts, okay, they are normally very powerful. The last time this happened was here. And the time before that is what actually started. It was actually the technical catalyst for the bull market.
Starting point is 00:51:58 The entire thing. The entire thing. And guess what? This was the same thing in 2017, right? Because this is how it plays out with these stage twos. These squeeze breakouts actually are what are the catalyst for those stage twos. When you go and you talk to macro economists, they all try and catch these stage twos. And when I kind of showed them that these squeeze breakouts, right, are what actually put us in the stage twos, they were actually pretty shocked.
Starting point is 00:52:22 They'd never put that together. They follow stage twos, they were actually pretty shocked. They'd never put that together. They, they follow stage twos. They know about these breakouts, but putting them together is what really kind of took everything to the next level. Right? So we'll be all right now. We're breaking out. I'm kind of worried that we're going to have problems here at this 36,000 area. And, um, let's do a little fib thing like we did last time. Hold on. Let me read my toolbox here yeah i mean it's starting to show some major overbought bearish potentially divergence on a lot of time frames so it would be a logical place here for a retest and in confidence with that track line you've got there yes i retrace not retest excuse me yeah retrace if we pull our fibs
Starting point is 00:53:00 from our swing high to our swing low okay we. We get our fibs. And of course this is really messy. What I like to look at once it passes these points is I've always looked at the 1.618 fib level. Okay. So this is what I'm targeting. And what I love is that it's in direct confluence with that supply zone high that I've had up for a year. So I think we've got a little higher to go. You can see it is getting rejected here at the track line, but I think in this zone here at the $36,000 area is where we're really going to see a little bit of weakness. But once we do break through that, Scott, um, my next level is most likely going to be 41 to 44. I haven't drawn it, but let's say it's going to be, yeah, from here to about there. No, no, no. So I'm sorry.
Starting point is 00:53:49 From there, there. That's going to be our next level that we're going to have issues with, right? However, whenever I do these projections, right, and we're in a bullish market, it's obviously I'm just judging by the TA. It's what I go by. I'm a chartist. I'm a, by nature, I really just follow the fundamentals and then I'll look for signs in the charts to act upon them. Right. But right now,
Starting point is 00:54:11 um, that's what I'm targeting for a bearish argument though. And I like to always do this because it's always wise to be, to be understanding of what your enemy wants to do. Right. In our case, it's, it's a bearish, uh's a bearish argument. So our bearish arguments, like I've told you before, let me get rid of these fibs. Our bearish arguments is that most cycles back, in fact, all cycles that we've gone back from, we've had a 20 to 30% retrace right before we get to this halving, okay? So that's what I'm worried about. However, I think that if we did get that, which we have no signs that we're going to get it now, if we did get it, it would simply put us back in the zone right here of the stage. That's right.
Starting point is 00:54:50 It's so much better than when we were at 25 and we had to talk about 20 or 19. Now we can talk about where we just were. Yeah, it's great. No, no. So this is definitely a better position. And if you guys missed the move move again, I would look for rejection at this $36,000 level. And if we do pull back to that, to the zone right here, um, obviously judging historically, right. That's been a very, very good buy, but that's what happens.
Starting point is 00:55:15 It wants to shake you out. It wants to shake the confidence in Bitcoin. And that is what usually happens before the halving. So this is what I'm watching Scott. Those are the levels. Um, let's go ahead and switch to Saul. Cause I've actually got a setup here on Saul for you guys. So this is what I'm watching, Scott. Those are the levels. Let's go ahead and switch to Sol because I've actually got a set up here on Sol for you guys. So this is one of my favorite assets to trade because it's a higher beta. So I like Ethereum. I like Solana because they're all higher betas to Bitcoin, meaning that they've got more volatility. And as a trader, that's what I want. That's how I make a profit is when the price action is moving. So when we're looking at this, Scott, this is the weekly chart of Solana. And you can see that we've gone through the stage four downtrend, okay?
Starting point is 00:55:52 Identified by being below the track line with red macro bars and red micro dots, right? This tells us we're in a stage four downtrend. Everyone always asks me, how can you tell the stages, okay? Once we hit this bottom and you start going sideways, this is called a stage one basing. I'm expecting the price action to go above the track line and below it and just be all kind of messy, red dots, green dots. We're always expecting this at stage one and we never, ever go long in stage one. I know people like to buy these stage ones. The reason why I don't buy them- Because they want to catch the bottom. because everybody feels like they want to catch the bottom,
Starting point is 00:56:26 but you made the most important point earlier for traders. You make your money in the middle of the move. Well, let me tell you, let me actually give some more context on why you don't buy stage ones or at least why I don't buy stage ones. I don't buy stage ones because stage ones can... Let's forget about Bitcoin and just talk in general. Stage ones can go you know, let's, let's forget about, you know, Bitcoin. I just talk in general stage ones can go on for weeks for, for days, weeks, months, or even years. I've seen them go on. Right. So all the time you're waiting with your long in that position, there's other opportunity costs that you're missing. So I never buy these stage ones. I kind of give it up. If I can catch, you know, 70, 80% of the bull market, I consider myself one of the lucky ones, right? I'm not trying to catch the bottom. So looking at the Solana here, okay, we've been in the stage one basing now, and we've just broken out here. In fact, in your newsletter, I mentioned that I was not
Starting point is 00:57:15 wanting to catch these dots, even though I let you guys know that the dots are happening. I said, I would look at a breakout of this resistance and we are breaking out here. Okay. So technically Scott, this is a really, really great setup. And as long as those dots are printing green, you should stay in the move. Okay.
Starting point is 00:57:32 Now, honestly, the other thing that I want to take into account here is that I was talking to, um, to, uh, Vinnie Lingham.
Starting point is 00:57:41 He's one of my buddies. We're both from South Africa and we're talking about the Solana conference that obviously has happened. Right. And as you know, Scott, yeah. And we get a lot of pumps when these conferences happen. So that's the only bearish argument that I have for Solana right here is, you know, does this retrace a little bit after, after the conference, after a couple of days, it usually does. Right. And if it did do that, we would get a little pullback and it would look something like this, maybe back to the breakout after the conference, after a couple of days. It usually does, right? And if it did do that, we would get a little pullback and it would look something like this, maybe back to the breakout line. And then we would look for the reaction. If it breaks below, bad sign, all right? But if it has a good reaction, this is another great point to buy. And you know that, Scott, on the breakout
Starting point is 00:58:20 and on the retest, but not just the retest. Yeah, that's one of everyone's favorite setups, but you have to get a good reaction off that retest. It can't just be a retest and then you buy, right? You want to make sure that the probabilities are always on your favor. And let me tell you the favorite way that I like to buy these retests, again, is if we lose green dots, we come down to test this and then we get green dots again. That's my buy signal when I have a retest. Yeah, absolutely love it. I wish we had more time. I ran over with the ETF guys. I want to tell you guys again, listen, to give you the soft pitch, which I have no shame doing because I'm using these things every day. If you guys have been following the newsletter, I'm actually now have been so convinced effectively by the trading alpha indicators
Starting point is 00:58:58 that you'll see that I put them in confluence with all of my charts now. For me, listen, I haven't fully, I know I will probably, gone fully over to only using the indicators. But when I spot a setup that I like and I've been going over there and it has been consistently giving me confluence, it's really, really amazing. And so guys, if you want it, you can check these out for free. In the newsletter, he shares these setups a few times a week. I'm using them. And of course, if you want to dig in deeper, the link is right down below. If you're actively trading, like at this point, guys, I've been through every strategy indicator, whatever. These are the only ones that I'm using outside of all the normal boring
Starting point is 00:59:32 strategies you guys have been seeing me use for years. So dude, it's incredible what you've built. Thank you, Scott. And you know what? If you guys are interested and you want some more feedback, we do have a free Discord that has testimonials that literally have hundreds and hundreds of feedback from members, not cherry picked. You know, they post them themselves. So if anyone wants feedback, they can go there and come back to Scott's link and, you know, be welcome to join us. And once you join us, we also have a lot of support in that channel as well in the discord, which I'm there as well. So yeah, guys, it's a really great system. I'm really proud of it. And I've got no problem promoting it because it's worked for me. Me neither. And I've never promoted anything.
Starting point is 01:00:16 I know. Thank you so much. I know we're over your time. I appreciate it. Ben, we'll see you. We'll be here next Tuesday. Absolutely. Thank you. Awesome. People love it. Thanks, man. Guys, that's all I got for you today. It was awesome having Eric Balchunas video bomb us and show up. We didn't know if he was going to show up. He pops in from the gym. Epic conversation there. Once again, I think the Bitcoin spot ETF is coming soon. I think the skepticism is warranted, obviously, because the SEC can do anything. But I think there's too much pressure. You guys see Stanley Druckenmiller, legendary investor. I had the article here, but I put it down. He said that he doesn't own Bitcoin, but he should, that basically millennials view it as gold. He also went on to poo-poo all over
Starting point is 01:00:59 Janet Yellen. I think he called her the worst, making the worst decisions for the United States ever in history of all time. Pretty incredible. That's all I got for you guys. I have Twitter spaces in all of 10 minutes from now. So we will be back again tomorrow. Love to see you guys here. The audience. Thank you, as always, for support.
Starting point is 01:01:21 I will see you on spaces. Bye.

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