The Wolf Of All Streets - Here Is Why Bitcoin & Crypto Are Bleeding & What Will Be The Next Catalyst

Episode Date: June 18, 2024

While Bitcoin and broad crypto market are stagnating, let's focus of what can become the next driver for the crypto industry. Joshua Frank, Co-Founder and CEO of The Tie is joining me today to discuss it.  Joshua Frank: https://x.com/joshua_frank_ My friend from The Arch Public, Andrew Parish is joining in the second part of the stream to provide an update on the $10K algorithmic portfolio.  Unleash algorithmic trading with The Arch Public: https://thearchpublic.com/  Andrew Parish: https://twitter.com/AP_Abacus  Tillman Holloway: https://twitter.com/texasol61  ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEKDAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/   ►► The Arch Public Unleash algorithmic trading. Discover how algorithms used by hedge-funds are now accessible to traders looking for unparalleled insights and opportunities!  👉https://thearchpublic.com/  ►►OKX SIGN UP FOR AN OKX TRADING ACCOUNT THEN DEPOSIT & TRADE TO UNLOCK MYSTERY BOX REWARDS OF UP TO $60,000!  👉https://www.okx.com/join/SCOTTMELKER  ►►TRADING ALPHA READY TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS? THE BEST TRADERS IN CRYPTO ARE RELYING ON THESE INDICATORS TO MAKE TRADES. Use code 'TENOFFSALE' for a 10% discount. 👉https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker  ►►NGRAVE This is the coldest hardware wallet in the world and the only one that I personally use. 👉https://www.ngrave.io/?sca_ref=4531319.pgXuTYJlYd  ►►NORD VPN  GET EXCLUSIVE NORDVPN DEAL - 40% DISCOUNT! IT’S RISK-FREE WITH NORD’S 30-DAY MONEY-BACK GUARANTEE. PROTECT YOUR PRIVACY! 👉 https://nordvpn.com/WolfOfAllStreets   Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://twitter.com/scottmelker   Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.io   Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe   Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c   #Bitcoin #Crypto #Trading The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

Bitcoin and crypto markets are bleeding. The sweet smell of depression and time-based capitulation are in the air. People are fighting all over Twitter, and it's generally just the worst place to be. And that was totally predictable if you've ever taken a look at what happens to crypto in the summers during this part of the four-year cycle. Yet, we never learn a lesson, and we all seem to suffer horribly when the sell-offs happen. But there are plenty of things to be bullish about, plenty of catalysts coming up in the near future. You just need to zoom out and wait. I'm going to discuss all of this, all the nonsense with one of my favorite guests from the Tide, Josh Frank, and of course,

Andrew from Arch Public on the back end. Let's go. What is up, everybody? I'm Scott Melker, also known as the Wolf of Wall Street. Before we get started, please subscribe to the channel. Hit that like button. I'm not depressed. Are you depressed? People seem really depressed. It's miserable. I've literally deleted X from my phone. It was such a distraction.

And then when the toxicity reaches a certain point, I just literally get rid of it. Don't read it. Don't care. Move on from my life. No social media. Go touch grass. Play with the kids. But man, I'm going to bring on Josh right now. There were some signals. There were some signals, right? I mean, in March,

we were sending $30 million to Solana contracts from anonymous people and getting rug pulled, the meme point casino, putting memes on the sphere. Should we be surprised that we are where we are right now in this cycle? No, look, I mean, yeah, look, it's there was euphoria, right? And I would say there was temporary euphoria. But I think the important thing to note is that there was no new capital in the space, right? And that's the number one most important thing to look out for. There was new capital flowing into Bitcoin with the ETF, right? There have been significant inflows into the ETF. And that's great. And hopefully that continues. We obviously had our worst week for the ETF last week. But there was no new capital flowing into anything else, right? Funds weren't raising more capital, retail wasn't here. And so what you had

was funds that had excess capital that had raised before or others just redeploying and cycling their money. And then the market kind of moved up and it moved up on the back of the Bitcoin ETF decision. But that hasn't flown into new capital moving into altcoins. And so to me, it's not surprising that we've seen a significant sell off. But that doesn't mean that the market's not going to rally and recover later. And I think also, you know, people in crypto after the two plus year, you know, prolonged, painful bear market of FTX and BlockFi and Celsius and Voyager and all the other nonsense have been eager for 100x gains. And we're ready to rotate at, you know, first opportunity to do that into memes. And look, the market's going to sell off. I mean, it was obviously not sustainable. But this is exactly what's supposed to be happening right now in altcoins. You made

the best point, which is that the money only flowed in through the Bitcoin spot ETFs. That money can't trickle down to altcoins. So we got way ahead of ourselves because of the ETFs, but everything else is doing what it would normally be doing, which is waiting for fall 2020, fall 2024, fall 2016. Those are the times that things started to pick up. And then the big years were 2017, 2021. That would be 2025 when these things would happen. We're just early. And I think we got excited because of the ETFs and the capital flowing into Bitcoin, but there's really nothing new here in this cycle. No, I mean, I don't think anything has changed, right? I mean, I think there's a new set of L1s and L2s. And unlike previous cycles, there's about 100 times more of them,

which I don't know if there's infinite demand for block space. Right. I mean, I think this is a cycle of L1s and L2s at this point. Right. I mean, if you look at anything outside of that, it's just not really a thing. I mean, there are obviously some tokens that have existed, but the majority of capital. And I think we talked about why it's flowing into L1s and L2s just because for VCs, it's the only way that you can deploy money and scale into the space and the only sustainable way to generate a return, which is something we've talked about before. But yeah, I mean, I don't think there's any real long lasting narrative that we have right now that's going to work. But I do think there are exceptions to that that are coming. One example that I know we spoke about it quite briefly before this call is a Gunzilla Games

launching off the grid, which I believe, Scott, you're an investor in. It's like the thing I deploy. I haven't invested in many things this cycle, at least recently. And I don't talk about them ever here because people will say you're shilling stuff. But yeah, it's Gunzilla off the grid. It's the thing I've, I even bought NFTs. It's the thing I'm the most heavily deployed in for this cycle. And I have very close friends who this is like their play for this year. Doesn't mean it'll work. Doesn't mean anyone should do anything, but that is what I have done. You are correct. Yeah. And I mean, I think, I think it's important. Like, you know, we've been talking about blockchain gaming for a while and I think conceptually it's a very cool idea. Gunzilla is, you know, a, and I'm not the expert here,

but my understanding is the AAA game studio built by folks that have built AAA real video games before raised tens of millions of dollars and is now available to be played. It's launched or it's in beta or something like that. And so I have heard really positive things from some folks that have played it. It looks cool. And I think with blockchain gaming, it's been a narrative that's existed for a while. The problem is games like this take years and years and years to build. And now I think this year from speaking to

a bunch of different chains that have gaming on them, whether that be Avalanche, but also some of the gaming specific chains like Amitabh or Oasis, a lot of them are planning to have their really big launch games come live in the next few months. And I think if they're real games with real users that have real applications of blockchain technology, I think that's something that's very exciting. I don't know if you have anything to add there. Yeah, I mean, this is it's PlayStation, Xbox, mobile, literally everywhere. This is real gaming studio making a real game that's going to go extremely viral. Most likely people have played it say it's insane that actually has blockchain elements.

I've said long, you know, gaming was too early last time because we didn't, we just didn't have a AAA game and we didn't have the real, you know, studios interested in the blockchain side and the people building on the blockchain side didn't know how to build a real game. So I think that this is a narrative of this cycle, let's hope, but we've waited years and we're getting real games now. We've had other games, you know, when you and I were at Consen were consensus last year the booth right across from you was shrapnel and that game looks pretty sweet too yeah yeah and we have we've had other games too we had uh um uh like uh what was that thing we'll step in i don't know if i count step in as a game but we had the what was the game that

everyone in the philippines was was playing for people i'm an axi infinity axi infinity we had axi infinity um that people are playing not just for economic reasons right so that i was gonna say that was a proof of concept where you like people in a country like the philippines can make more money playing a silly game you know and literally like 100 mobile phones on the wall you would see these videos, then they're normal jobs. So they did it. But yes, I don't think that that was sticky. It was just the monetary incentive.

You can get some monetary incentive with a game that actually people want to play and get, I guess, somewhat addicted to. Here we go. But I want to talk about meme coins because you brought up this Trump coin. We're still doing the meme stupidity at the moment. That's what I think is pretty clear here. Can you kind of break that down for me? Because I'm so busy.

I don't think anybody really knows what's going on. So I don't think anybody knows what's going on. I've tried to follow this. But apparently there is a coin, a Trump coin that got launched. And there were rumors or speculation or conversation that this coin was actually launched by the Trump campaign. It was covered in Fox News and a bunch of traditional media outlets as well. The rumor was that Barron Trump was behind this coin. We've had Trump steaks, Trump vodka, Trump water. We've had lots of Trump things. I don't know why not Trump coin, I guess. The campaign hasn't commented on it yet.

I don't think it seems real. There's like a rug pull feature called build the wall built into the token. It's built on Solana. There's actually a polymarket betting market on this. I see if I can. I think I have this up. Where people are betting on, is the coin real? And we're at $480,000 in bet with a 25% chance that that's people.

Real meaning actually created by the campaign. Yeah, real being actually created by Trump's inner circle. This seems like a very high chance, 25%, but I don't know. No way. I have a question here. Why are you always bashing memes? They are legit, Scott. The reason I'm bashing memes is because everyone's losing money on them. Just because they went up doesn't mean anybody made anything. That's the problem. If you have no fundamental reason to be in things and you're calling it an investment, if you're not a professional who knows how to play that game of hot potato and sell at the exact right moment and buy at the exact right moment,

let's be real. 90% of the people who have bought any of these things are still holding everything they bought right now and watching it bleed and have no idea what to do. I have nothing against memes. I just want people to realize that it's gambling. It's going to a casino and it's nothing more. If you know you're going to a casino, that's absolutely amazing for you. If you don't, and you think for some reason there's fundamental value or like your community, you're going to be a part of the community. Ask the lazy lions how their fucking community went or whoever the hell to turnt up turtles and, you know, prestigious penguins. I don't know, man. None of that shit

lasted because community and crypto is only as good as price. That's my problem. I have nothing against the memes. I have something against people who don't understand what they're buying. Yeah, I mean, I think that's I think that's fair. I mean, I think it's you can make a lot of money I mean, I think you can make a lot of money on meme coins, but you can lose a lot of money on meme coins. It's the same thing as going to a casino, right? You can make a ton of money. You're more likely to lose a ton of money. I mean, I think that's fair, but I think meme coins are fun, right? And I think they're great. I think they're exciting. I think they're fun for people to get into. I think it's just a matter of being

careful, right? Don't put more than you're willing to lose. Yeah, I agree with that. People, you know, I always kind of say, hey, you know, just buy Bitcoin, whatever. And people are like, I'm not going to get rich on Bitcoin, dude. If that's your attitude coming into crypto, you are going to lose everything. And I think it's also important to think about the long term sustainability of the industry as well, right? Like, these things are fun and they are culture and they're they're exciting and they're fun to get behind. But they also, you know, all of these people losing money, people getting rugged. Right. You know, the problem is for those

of you listening, I mean, most of your listeners are deep into crypto and most of them are. They get it. Yeah. Well, they've been here for a while, right? The problem is that your friend sees the meme coin or somebody else sees the meme coin, they lose money. And then that dissuades them from being in crypto. And again, for alts to go up, we need new capital to rotate into the sector. We need more money in the space. And so I think it's, look, it's a trade-off between, it is fun. And look, the reason crypto did well well in 21 is it was a it was a vice. Right. Everything that was vices in low interest rate environments and during COVID did really well. Like gambling did really well.

Cigarettes did well. Alcohol did well. Like vices killed. Vices killed it during during COVID and crypto was gambling. You know, it is. It is. And I think we should embrace that. I think that's part of it, right?

But I think for the long term- You have to just know you're at the casino. You have to know you're at the casino. And we don't want to invite the new people to the casino. We want to invite them to the good parts. Yeah, we want them, you want them, you want people to buy your bags and not lose all their money, right?

So that they buy more of your bags in the future and they continue to buy your bags, right? We don't want temporary bag buying. We want long-term sustainable bag buying. Do you guys know how casinos work? Like they want whales to come into the casino. They want them to win the first day and then they comp you everything so that you stay and you lose everything and you end up with a Bruno Mars level $40 million credit debt at the MGM that you'll be playing shows the rest of your life for to pay off. Guys, this is the meme coin game right now is when you win money at Blackjack and your first instinct is I'm going to take all that money and go put it on one number in roulette. And maybe I'll get a free martini, which is your at least you get free drinks there. I haven't,

you know, I don't see meme coin people getting anything but losses. I am sure there are some people who have made great money in memes. Like I said, I'm all for the speculation. It's fun. You just need to know that you're speculating and just doing it for fun. But let's talk. Memes are not going to be, unless we get another Doge that's been around for years and gets embraced by Elon Musk, Doge onboarded millions of people to crypto, to be fair. So Doge itself did that. I don't think that's different. But gaming, what are the other catalysts? Which one of these narratives that we're seeing are real for this cycle? Yeah, I mean, I think there's a few things that's real. I mean, one thing I was really excited to see was, I don't know if you

saw the Paul Ryan op-ed that he published in the Wall Street Journal, which is crypto could save off a US debt crisis. That's a huge deal. Paul Ryan was obviously a bigger deal than he is today, but he is a figure of US politics. He was the speaker of the house and was almost in office. So he basically wrote an opinion piece in the Wall Street Journal that basically stable coins are amazing because it's going to, basically people are buying US debt, right? Like treasury-backed stable coins is literally like people in foreign markets buying US debt, which is amazing. I know, treasuries. Yeah, exactly. It's people buying treasuries, right? It's creating,

it's creating more and more demand for the U S dollar. And that's an amazing thing. And it's creating reliance on the U S dollar globally, which I never understood why people didn't understand. And I think we've probably talked about this before. Paolo talks about it. He's like Tether, Paolo, every time I have him on the show, he says, Tether is hyper-dollarization, not hyper-Bitcoinization, it's hyper-dollarization. Right. It's great. And I mean, I think policymakers understanding that is huge. And Paul Ryan is a very important part of the Republican Party historically, right? And so I think him understanding that is a really big deal.

And I think it's clear that more within the political landscape are coming around to crypto. We obviously had the Saab 121 vote where Chuck Schumer voted against Donald Trump, the most important person in the, not Joe Biden. Against Elizabeth Warren and the White House. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, the most the most, you know, the most important, you know, Democratic person, the Democratic a different question. And they understand what they're voting on. I think that hopefully will come. But the fact that they are moving in a more pro crypto direction and that we've seen some of that happen, this needs to be bipartisan. This can't be a partisan issue. is a great thing if the next president, and I'm not making a political statement, but the next president, let's say theoretically Trump came into office with super pro crypto and did, you know, a ton to support the industry. I think he said he wanted all Bitcoins to be made in the USA, which is pretty funny on true social. Made in the USA, man. Made in the USA. We're going to, yeah, we're going to build the best factories for Bitcoin. The, you know, I think, I think it's a great thing, but I think for the long-term health of crypto, this needs to be bipartisan. I think anything is better when it's bipartisan.

I think, why would you not want innovation to happen here? Why would you not want wealth creation to happen here? Why wouldn't you want us to promote, to Paolo's point, hyper-dollarization globally. And I don't know, it doesn't make any sense to me why you wouldn't want to just support and nourish the industry. The industry is not going anywhere, right? At this point, it's very clear that crypto is here to stay. And if crypto is here to stay, why not embrace it? Why are you letting us lose to other countries that are pushing out more? I mean, the fact that US companies are considering moving to Abu Dhabi and Dubai and other jurisdictions is crazy to me.

I mean, why not allow companies to operate in the US and have jobs be created in the US and pay tax dollars to the US? Yeah, I don't know. It just doesn't make any sense to me. I just found a video from seven weeks ago of you last time you were on our show that we clipped before Donald Trump became bullish. Literally while you were talking, I was remembering this that we clipped. I'm just

going to play it really quick. This is before Donald Trump said anything about crypto, by the way. Anything possible? Really bullish for crypto. Look, the election is coming up. It doesn't matter where you land on the political spectrum, but I think this election is certainly going to have an impact on the SEC. If Trump somehow picks Vivek as his running mate, which isn't going to happen, but if he does, or depending on who he puts it as running mate, depends on what he comes out and says. And if he starts to take a big lead, it could be really bullish for crypto, really bullish. Yeah, boy. If the expectation is that the SEC is going to put forth regulation that is more pro crypto. I mean, you kind of nailed that one before he even came out and said that.

I got absolutely fucking grilled by people in the comment section. You're welcome. No way Trump would say anything pro crypto, by the way. So yeah, I mean, listen, it was a big turnaround, but you kind of saw it coming regardless. But the fact that people were already saying, listen, anything but this administration, and then it actually became a real issue. Pretty crazy that that's happened since you said that only it was May 1st or something, that you were on the show last.

Yeah, I don't know. You're making it sound like I know more than I know. It's like gambling on meme coins. If I say enough things, eventually I'll be right once, right? Have you taken a deep look at the Tether's new AUSDT here that's backed by gold? What I find interesting is not that there's a stable coin backed by gold. Okay, that's cool. But they've said that this is the first sort of product in a platform they're building for tokenizing real world assets that

will be launched later this year. Real world assets has obviously been a huge narrative. We have BlackRock doing it. But if Tether launches a legitimate platform where you can tokenize real world assets, that could be huge, even this narrative. I mean, even this cycle. Yeah. The challenge with RWA is it's a chicken and the egg problem, right? Like there's no liquidity. And because there's no liquidity, no one wants to be an issuer. And if there are no good issuers, there's going to be no liquidity. This is a problem that's existed since RWAs were called security tokens years ago, right? And so RWAs are just rebranded security tokens. It didn't work when we called them security tokens. So we rebranded them as real world assets, right?

I mean, it's the same players. It's the same marketplaces. It's the, what is it? Overstock.com guys think T0 is still around. Securitize is still around, right? And that's not to say that this isn't going to take over, but again, it's crypto and this industry is very narrative driven, right?

And so, you know, if you look at the market cap of RWAs, it's still relatively small. I mean, the largest, by far the largest issuer is figure markets, which operates their own chain called provenance. They have home equity lines of credit that they've tokenized that they've issued themselves, right? Helox. But outside of that, I mean, it's still a small and nascent market. And I think it's still very theoretical at this point. And so we'll see. I mean, obviously, the tokenized treasuries is becoming a real earth thing, and it's becoming a bigger thing. The question is, is there demand for that outside of crypto, right? And That's a real question. Is the demand-

Yeah, because you could just, if you're American, you could just buy the treasury. You don't need a tokenized treasury necessarily. Yeah, I mean- Add a layer of risk for the average person. The question is, look, and I speak to a lot of banks and asset managers and others, and a lot of this is still proof of concept, right? And I think there are people that are excited about a lot of different things within the RWA space. I think rightfully so around things like settlement, like settlement right now, you know, just moved to T plus one,

but it was, you know, took T plus three, three days for a trade to settle. A trade could settle on the blockchain depending on the chain in fractions of seconds. I think there's interesting things that can happen that blockchains can be used for. The question just is, who's the buyer is the question? Who's the buyer today? I don't think that we know the answer to that question yet. There are a lot of proofs of concept. There are a lot of proofs of concept. You've seen them come out of big banks and asset managers and others. But when you actually go and speak to these folks, these are just proof of concepts right now. And so I think, again, it's just a matter of seeing one of these things really take hold and take shape and somebody really putting their money where their mouth is. Here's a comment for you. I want your opinion. It's all over. The billionaires controlled this

market totally and the poor man got tired of them pumping and dumping. My opinion. Is that an epic bottom signal or is there some truth in that? Because a lot of people have said that the meme coin craze is because people don't want to buy VC bags, tokens backed by VCs, but we've just seen billions of dollars more raised in VC funding that's going to be deployed into this market. Yeah. I mean, I think there is some of that is true, but other parts of that isn't true, right? It's all over part is not true, in my opinion, to be clear. Yeah. I mean, but if you look at the 21 market, right, I mean, the U.S. stock market was being driven by retail. Right. And so the fact that the U.S. equity markets can get driven by retail and the fact that large funds were forced out of business that were shorting meme stocks means that it's not just billionaires. And if you look at where a lot of this money comes from, at the end of the day, it's allocators putting money into funds. And who are allocators, right? Allocators can be like, you know, Texas teachers, right? That's the pension plans of teachers, Ontario teachers,

OMERS, Ontario Municipal Employee Retirement System, right? These are the allocators. GIC and Tomasic, right, have made a lot of investments in crypto. That's the money of the people of Singapore, right? And so at the end of the day, you know, a lot of the real capital in this space starts with allocators. And whose money is it behind the scenes? That's people's money, right? That's the Harvard endowments money. That is the MIT. I'm not saying these specific, I mean, these are, I think, folks that have- State of Wisconsin, right? Right, exactly. I mean, these are pensions, these are endowments, these are allocators,

that's who's putting the money into the space. And yes, there are fund managers who are billionaires there. But at the end of the day, a lot of that money is owned by individuals and owned by people too. So I would keep that in mind. Obviously, look, a lot of the Bitcoin market right now, or a lot of the market more broadly is also just being driven by high interest rates, right? I mean, we're in a high interest rate environment right now. And no one wants to put money into risk on assets right now or not what doesn't make maybe not risk on because the market overall is doing better. A lot of the market's doing better, especially Abercrombie, which is up like 500% this year, which is crazy. Come back in a century. Should have made a meme token for that.

But I don't know. I mean, I think, look, the Bitcoin ETF flows are obviously being driven by large funds. And I think the thing that people miss on the Bitcoin ETF flows are those large funds aren't necessarily long crypto. They might be hedging those positions, right? And just being taken, just taking advantage of market inefficiencies that exist. So I do think Bitcoin more broadly because of the size of the market is being driven by larger players, but I don't think that's a bad thing because they could come in with more money and bid up the market right in the longterm. But that said, like most of these large funds, they're trading Bitcoin and Ethereum, maybe, maybe Ethereum. And if they're trading Ethereum, it's usually CME futures.

But outside of that, there's not enough liquidity for these big players or billionaires, whatever you want to call them, to actually engage in the market. A lot of tokens, especially when you start going outside of the top 10 or 20 by market cap, just don't have enough volume. It's not worth it. Like, imagine you have a $50 billion fund. It's not worth it for you to trade a token that you can only trade $5 million a day. It just doesn't move the P&L, the profit and loss of your fund. And so yes, Bitcoin might be being driven by larger players right now, and maybe Ethereum, and maybe Solana. But outside of that, it's really not the case. Yeah, I totally agree. Anything else you want to add before I let you go? I know we're up and maybe Solana, but outside of that, it's, it's really not the case. Yeah.

I totally agree. Anything else you want to add before I let you go? I know we're up, up to time here. I don't think so. I don't think so. We nailed it. I think we totally nailed it.

We each got little rants in there. It's perfect. I don't know if there was any that didn't, I don't know if that flowed guys, any, uh, but, but you know,

we tried, we tried. This is what happens to you guys on my tried. We tried. This is what happens. You guys, on my show, sometimes you get to witness what two dudes who just talk about stuff even offline. You just get to witness us having a conversation. I don't know if that's entertaining or not. But if you see Josh and I in person, like sitting in a booth at a conference, we're usually. It's the same conversation.

Nothing. Nothing. Nothing. Same. Same. So, Scott, before I leave, Trump coin real or fake? What's your take? Fake. All right. Nothing. Nothing. Nothing. Same. Same. So Scott, before I leave Trump coin, real or fake, what's your take?

Fake. All right. Fake. Fake. If it's real, everyone in the comment section, absolutely shit on Scott in the next video. 25% chance.

According to Paul, according to 400 grand worth of that. Fuck my life. It's probably real. Now that I said that, whatever, man, it's fake, fake, super fake. I have conviction in this one. What do you think? Come on. You have to give yours now.

I'm in the same boat. There's no way this thing could be real. I mean, it would be funny as shit if it was real. The thing is, so much of American politics would just be funny if it was another country. But it's painful because it's our country. Before I drop you off, I'm going to bring Andrew on. Real or fake? Fake. Fake, fake, fake, fake, fake, fake, fake. This is our transition between guests. But it's a perfect meme coin fake, right?

It's the pinnacle of the meme coin. So good. I hope that the campaign never comments on it and it just put an ongoing... Yeah, it's so easy to fake that. it just, and it's ongoing. Yeah. It's so easy to fake that. You just like create a fake social media account. You launch it.

You start the rumor yourself. It goes massively viral and you're done. You've made a ton of money. Easy, easy. I bet he has alias behind it. If you guys see a wolf of all streets coin late launch later today, it may or may not have been Scott.

No, Josh, you're out of here. Bye Josh. Everybody follow Josh for more updates on my coin. Bye. On your coin. What will be the next catalyst? You had an awesome tweet, so I just want to go ahead and bring this up before we start talking about anything else because it's a nice segue. It is the topic

and you usually get the little notes under the door from your little birds. Update BlackRock sources and quotes on Bitcoin ETF growth and BTC price action. Quotes, expected this inflow velocity from the get-go. Demand will remain elevated. We expect the group of ETFs to surpass 100 billion AUM in 2025.

That is sweet. That's like a tripling from here or so, probably. Surprise, Bitcoin price isn't higher. We should see 100K early 2025. This is from BlackRock. Demand for largest investors has merely just begun. Okay. Dive into that. Yeah. So three different sources at BlackRock. One of them I would call adjacent to BlackRock, who's very close to their iBit product. So not hard to follow that particular trail. But they're just remarkably bullish, and they should be because of the inflows that they saw from the get go. You know, we're talking about they went from zero to taking over as the biggest Bitcoin

fund on the planet in less than four months. They think that the velocity is going to continue. And the more noise that there is around crypto assets in the institutional and wealth management world, they think that that's going to lead to more people defaulting to Bitcoin ETFs. In fact, that was probably the theme across all three sources is this default narrative that there's going to be conversations. And as those conversations associated with inclusion into portfolios for whether it's institutions, whether it's family offices, and then it's just really rich people, that the default is going to be, okay, there's other stuff

out there. I hear lots of noise. My kids are talking about it. So I'm just going to dip my toe in and that toe is going to go into the Bitcoin ETF. And so that reality is going to mean that you're going to have inflows that will stay elevated and a two-thirds push higher from let's call it $30 billion plus. Actually, I think that we're closer to $50 billion in total that sit in the Bitcoin ETFs right now. And so Q2 2025, that's not a stretch. They were genuinely surprised that Bitcoin wasn't higher from where it is now, principally because it's remained elevated near or at its all time highs for the last cycle over the last 90 days. I put up another post that shows over 24 hours a week,

30 days and 90 days, Bitcoin has effectively moved somewhere between 2% to 5% over that period of time. It's hilarious. It's 56 million. 56 million, you're right. Yeah, 56 billion. Yeah, there's a billion. So getting to 100 is not necessarily... That's not a... It's not a significant...

You don't even need inflows. You just a pump like yeah right yeah you're absolutely right so if it goes to 100k you're at 80 billion you know very quickly anyways just just from the pump um the other thing that i didn't put in that tweet that was mentioned a few times um is they think that there's going to be some shift um from a little bit of outflows associated with um the ethetf approval there'll be movement out of um uh what am i looking for here um you know the very the very ethetf um for some reason i can't think of this stupid uh stupid name of the company yeah yeahTH. Yeah, ETH. It's called Ethereum, Andrew. Yes.

No, no, no. The stupid company. I need another cup of this. But they're going to see movement out of that product. And so there's going to be a portion of that movement that also goes into the Bitcoin ETFs and out of that product. So, you know, there's another couple of conversations this morning. They think that over the next six to 12 months that there will probably be a 7 to 10 to 1 ratio of inflows into, quote, crypto ETFs is going to go into Bitcoin ETFs. So there's your catalyst right there. And again,

because we're so myopic in short term thinking in the crypto space, you know, we get outside of ourselves and don't realize what a huge paradigm shift this has been. And that that paradigm shift has only just begun. I challenge anybody to go back and look at a 90-day period where Bitcoin effectively has moved five and a quarter percent in the aggregate. That's impossible to go find. That is impossible to go find. And so that's where we're at today, that we've got 30-day, 90-day, one-week type periods where there's there there's there's minimal movement like we can freak out about oh it's gone from 69 to 67 to 65 but that that's that's not that's not freaking out about that stuff you could do that on crypto twitter and

maybe get a few likes on your post but that's that's not the real world it's just not the real world this guy jets said since first cycle earlier first ball run feels i guess why sideways so damn long definitely concerned that it's over i just want to show you something really quick this is a chart i've had of what happens after each having and during each having here's the 2016 having price was around 600 bucks before it really broke back above that level. That was the halving in July. It took until basically December to break up and then go up. So that's your six month boring summer that we talk about every time. Halving three, May 2020.

So it happened in May. Look at this sideways, a little up back to that level. Didn't break out until October. We all remember it was literally October 1st. It was like October. It went absolutely nuts. That was five to six months of complete boredom. We are only in June.

It was April. I said this literally when this was happening. I said, get ready for six months. I don't know. You did. Yeah, you called it. You called it. You call it.

So that guy's comment is typical of, you know, typical of crypto Twitter. Why sideways for so long? It's been sideways for, you know, what, 45 days, 70 days. I don't even remember what the there's like a crazy stat on how many days like profits are actually made on Bitcoin versus its entire trading history. And it's yeah, yeah. It's a few parabolic days here and there. And the most of the price action is always choppy. I mean, a guy who's great at that is Tom Lee at Fundstrat. And basically he's shown that since about 2013, there's between eight to 10 days every year

where Bitcoin basically skyrockets higher. And that's where you get your performance every year. Every year it's eight to 10 days. And so think about that. Bitcoin doesn't shut down on the weekends like the rest, you know, traditional markets. It's on 365 days. And so you get eight days of performance.

Like if you're not in it, you're toast, right? So yeah, enjoy the sideways, man. You know, enjoy the sideways. Jeff comes on every show. He says, remember all that insane. I love you, Jeff. Most vowels and a last name in history. Remember all that insane ETF demand. Turns out it was simply GBTC rotation. Who knew? GBTC was $27 billion when ETFs launched. We're at almost $60. So it's just not true. I know price is higher, but that's just not true. Yeah. It's just not rotation. And in fact, GB know, GBTC still has, you know, 18 billion, 19 billion in aggregate

still in their fund. Right. So if it was just that rotation, then BlackRock would only have $10 billion in their fund. They've got 22. So, you know, decent point, but just not factually correct. Fun though. Fun though. Okay. So listen, we know now you point, but just not factually correct. Fun though. Fun though. Okay.

So listen, we know now you've talked about BlackRock. Obviously, they're extremely bullish. I found it most interesting that this was totally on par with their expectations. So nothing strange here. I love that. And we know that all these platforms and institutions are still yet to unlock doing due diligence. I'm not worried at all. This is exactly where we're existing through my base case at the moment. Everything generally above

60 is super fine. Anything below 74 is super boring. Well, you said for a long time that, you know, we range, you know, through summer. Something that I've said for a long time is that, you know, if we sit in the 60s for this time period, just like you've shown on that chart, September, October. I just don't that there there is no and this is the thing that I've said the most. I don't see any meaningful catalyst for downside for Bitcoin. I just don't see it. I don't know where the macro goes to complete shit. But imagine that in front of an election.

Right. Yeah. Right. Temporary. Well, my opportunity. Unless the macro goes to complete shit, but imagine that in front of an election, right? Yeah, right. That would be temporary. Well, the regime, so to speak, would immediately start to cut rates. And we know what that does to Bitcoin price, right? It's just, it's very hard. We're talking about apocalypse type stuff for meaningful downside, right? So, yeah, you know, buy Bitcoin. I don't know how many times okay well let's talk about arch public which allows you to take your profits and buy and uh and

buy some uh bitcoin i know there were two trades one was small downside and one was over five percent to the upside yeah yeah so yeah for us um we take we think risk management is a big part of performance, right? So our stop losses in every one of our algorithms are set at 2% of the position that you're taking at the time. So we get questions all the time about, well, I just want to be sure that I'm not going to wake up, you know, because in crypto I wake up and I've lost 40% of my money. Like that's not going to ever happen here. That will never happen with our firm because we have 2% stop losses on all of my money. That's not going to ever happen here. That will never happen with our firm because we have 2% stop losses on all of our algorithms. So you're protected in a meaningful way. And what that does is that also maximizes performance. Because if your downs are a third

significantly less than your upside, then that means you have a three to one return on any upside positions that we take. So that's what profit factor means, winning trades percentage. The math is the math. And that's what we continue to kind of pound the table on. If we've evaluated risk in a way and been able to algorithmically put into our products, the ability to save capital so that when there is a positive trade, you get a three to one upside. The math speaks for itself. And you have fantastic months like we did in May to the tune of 12.6%. So another point that I'd like to make is we just announced yesterday that we are releasing a new NASDAQ algorithm that's coming to market. And I want to make it clear that people that are in our concierge

program, they get these quote unquote for free. So we add new algorithms that are coming to market as a portfolio enhancement for those people that are already in that program. And this particular algorithm has a 72% profitable trades winning rate. That's insane. Like that is an insane number. In this particular algorithm, we bought an algorithm company, a development company out of the UK several years ago, and they've been working on this particular one and using it for like 24 years. So unique product, incredible percentage of winning profitable trades. And we're going to add it to people's portfolios at no extra cost. And that's just part of working with the arts public. We treat people really, really well.

Anything else I might've missed before i let you go no other than uh i gotta actually bring it up on the screen so they know what the hell i take for granted that everybody knows exactly what we're talking about all the time because they're here every week but there are new people it's in the description guys but obviously this is uh yeah i'm behind this. We've been running a portfolio here very publicly, but thearchpublic.com. Incredible, incredible algorithm. Yeah. The other thing too that we find, and we just put out a customer review video that people could go take a look at on our website. It's one of our customers talking directly to the camera. Service is so important to us. Having relationships of our customers, you know, kind of talking directly to the camera. You know, service is so important to us. Having relationships with our customers, answering questions very, very quickly.

We have an entire staff that's dedicated to returning emails, returning phone calls and returning requests very, very quickly. And people give us really high marks for being, you know, being there and ready with questions and available to them at a moment's notice. Yeah, absolutely love that. We've heard obviously very favorable things. And when we've gotten even slight criticism, I just tell you and you go reach right out to the person. Yeah, you know what, we had we had a guy in a stream, you know, a couple weeks ago say, the service isn't great. And frankly, that guy ended up, he wasn't a subscriber at the time. He had just asked us a couple of questions. We jumped on it and, you know, in about two days he became a subscriber. So yeah, you know, you're,

you're going to get a guy with a, you know, a funny looking hair and pissed off about something every once in a while when you get hundreds and hundreds of customers. And Jeff says he's on the site and can't see that video. You had tweeted. Yeah. The customer video is, is about a halfway down. Right. Yeah.

Public.com. Yeah. Oh, sorry. I'm not even showing my screen now. I love, by the way, I love this.

Get the guide. I prefer being mediocre. I'm going to prefer being mediocre for the moment. So there he is. My, our guy, James Norton, James,

his story real quickly. He signed up for the Gateway. Then two days later, he's like, you know what? I think I'm just going to go for the concierge program. He made $24,000 three days later. He's like, you know what? I think I'll go for the Tier 2 concierge program now. So proof's in the pudding. He moved through our system, and it was trading capital within within a week of being involved with

our firm yeah perfect there you go all right that's the answers guys follow obviously andrew this is once again it's not an affiliate link or anything it's just thearchpublic.com simple easy check them out um if this is for you you can can actually get on a call with Andrew and Tillman and these guys and talk it through and see if it's right for you. Not everything's right for everyone, but if you're interested in trading and you're interested in passively making some money, get as shot as any. Fantastic. Andrew, I appreciate you.

And you have an incredible beard. Your beard looks great, man. It plays. The beard plays. I'm going to be honest. I'm a single guy in my 40s. great, man. It plays. The beard plays. I'm going to be honest. I'm a single guy in my 40s. I'll just leave it there. The beard plays. It does. Grow a beard.

That's all we got for you guys. That's the alpha. We told you a whole bunch of garbage today, but grow a beard if you're in your 40s. Serious alpha. I'm single. My wife doesn't love it, but I get away with some scruff. All right, guys. That's all we got for you today.

Andrew, I'm sure I'll probably see you on Spaces in 30 minutes anyways, as usual. But otherwise, obviously, Andrew will be back next Tuesday, and I'll be back tomorrow. Guys, thanks for tuning in. I know the market is boring and choppy. We appreciate that you guys still show up to listen to us banter. Really appreciate it. Awesome. That's all we got.

Later, everybody. Bye. Bye. Let's go. answer. Really appreciate it. Awesome. That's all we got.