The Wolf Of All Streets - Here Is Why Bitcoin's Next Bull Run Is Just Around the Corner

Episode Date: June 26, 2024

When to expect Bitcoin to turn bullish? I am joined by Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck, who will share his opinion on the crypto market.  Matthew Sigel: https://x.com/matthew_sigel Chris Inks will join us in the second part to share some interesting trades in crypto and beyond.  Chris Inks: https://twitter.com/TXWestCapital  ►►JOIN THE DISCUSSION AND COMMENT ON THIS STREAM WITH NO BOTS 👉https://roundtable.rtb.io/shortUrl/Rc6LcTY ►► Sponsored by BLENDR Blendr is a new decentralized marketplace for unused GPU power, making computing more efficient and cheaper. Check out Blendr!  👉https://blendr.network/ 👉https://twitter.com/blendrnetwork ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEKDAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/   ►► The Arch Public Unleash algorithmic trading. Discover how algorithms used by hedge-funds are now accessible to traders looking for unparalleled insights and opportunities!  👉https://thearchpublic.com/  ►►OKX SIGN UP FOR AN OKX TRADING ACCOUNT THEN DEPOSIT & TRADE TO UNLOCK MYSTERY BOX REWARDS OF UP TO $60,000!  👉https://www.okx.com/join/SCOTTMELKER  ►►TRADING ALPHA READY TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS? THE BEST TRADERS IN CRYPTO ARE RELYING ON THESE INDICATORS TO MAKE TRADES. Use code 'TENOFFSALE' for a 10% discount. 👉https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker  ►►NGRAVE This is the coldest hardware wallet in the world and the only one that I personally use. 👉https://www.ngrave.io/?sca_ref=4531319.pgXuTYJlYd  ►►NORD VPN  GET EXCLUSIVE NORDVPN DEAL - 40% DISCOUNT! IT’S RISK-FREE WITH NORD’S 30-DAY MONEY-BACK GUARANTEE. PROTECT YOUR PRIVACY! 👉 https://nordvpn.com/WolfOfAllStreets   Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://twitter.com/scottmelker   Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.io   Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe   Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c   #Bitcoin #Crypto #BullRun The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

Market participants are seemingly fearful, believing that the bull market could be over and that we may have had our chance to take profit on everything and missed it. But if you actually zoom out and use your human brain instead of your lizard brain, you realize that it's largely nothing but tailwinds for the Bitcoin and crypto markets. And there are some very specific catalysts coming soon that could finally re-spark a bull market. I'm going to discuss it today with one of my favorite guests, Matt Siegel from VanEck, and of course, Christopher Inks, Texas West Capital on the back half. Let's go. coins next bull run is just around the corner i don't want to tell you i want matt to tell you i'm gonna put him on the spot now that you're boarding how are you all is well bed x so listen

this is based on a specific article and then we'll dig into quite a few more things but here on coin desk renewed bullishness expected after bitcoin ethers 10 billion options expiry on friday this is the biggest uh expiry of options that we've maybe ever had, according to the article, but certainly in quite a long time. It's going to represent over 40% of the current cumulative open interest of over $23 billion. 25% of those expiries are in the money, which is relatively high. There's no real reason at this point for someone to push price in either direction to sort of change the outcome. And this comes along with the quadruple witching and legacy markets that we mock every single year. It's really the triple

witching now. But stock options, index futures, and index futures options derivatives all expiring at the same time. So it's a lot. And we usually see crazy volatility and usually renewed upside after an event like this. Is this meaningful to you? Do you think that we're going to see fireworks on Friday and beyond? Well, I got renewed bullish on Tuesday, just noticed some capitulation indicators in the space, like realized losses by short-term holders, for example, over 500 million. That's a top five print of all time for Bitcoin. And then I saw BTC volatility hit 21. That's a 30-day annualized vol.

That is also a very low number. It was lower than Apple stock, lower than Meta stock. I don't think that's sustainable. And the quadruple witching might be the catalyst. So I did sell some equities and bought BTC on Tuesday. I think the risk reward looks good. It's 17% drawdown. As long as the cycle's not over, then that's going to look really attractive in hindsight. And how could the cycle be over, right? We're like two months after the halving, the election is a few months away. There's a lot of positives in the space, so added to some risk a couple days ago. See, I often say we can listen to people's opinions, my own included, but when they say

I actually did something about it, it's a lot more impactful. Yesterday, we had Peter Brant, a legendary trader on Twitter spaces. And he said, listen, there's 25% chance this bull market's over. 75% chance we're going way up. 60,000 support. I bought Bitcoin here. Yeah, right. Totally.

And there was the confluence of bad news with Germany selling their coins, the Mt. Gox repayment. Miners have really started to sell their coins. That's one thing maybe we can talk about. But miners are selling at 45% month over month. So it just felt like everyone, timeline very bearish and a good time to add. I want to talk about miners, right? Because you just sort of mentioned we have this interesting bipolarity, I think. We know that miners are under pressure, so they have to sell coins. That always happens in this part of the cycle.

They need to survive until prices go up and they can be profitable again. But public mining stocks have wildly outperformed Bitcoin at the same time. They've been this high beta, incredible move. They've gone up while Bitcoin's gone down. It's not even like they're outperforming to the upside. Bitcoin's dropping and they're flying. So how do we make sense of all of that if miners are supposed to be sort of suffering or sideways during this time? Yeah. So just to set the stage on what the price action is, we have an ETF that owns Bitcoin miners. It's up 21% this month, right? That's versus BTC down 9%,

ETH down 11%, and Solana down 17%. And what's basically happening is that there's a clear supply and demand imbalance for the access to power and high density data center infrastructure that these AI workloads need. at that intersection. And they are fielding calls from everyone from Microsoft, Amazon. Obviously, we've seen CoreWeave strike that big deal with Core Scientific and try to buy the company and down the line. And I was at a dinner this week with the CEO of Terrawolf, a dinner organized by Cantor Fitzgerald, which is Tether's banker. They've recently initiated on the Bitcoin miners. And what was super interesting was the attendees in that room. I swear I was the only person who cared about Bitcoin. These are all power analysts, data center analysts, and they're getting the math on how much money these guys can earn per megawatt and what percent of their power is going to be allocated to this AI high-performance compute use case. And there's a number of miners with a fair bit

of spare capacity that are going to take those calls and strike deals. And TerraWolf is one of them. That stock's now up 100% this year. IREN, Iris Energy, that's another one. Like Terrell Wolf's CEO, he said at the dinner, I'm paraphrasing here, but we're prepared to get married, but not to the first person who asks. So, you know, bidding war for power capacity and very rare to see these Bitcoin miners be in the catbird seat like this. I think these stocks look good for the rest of the year. Makes a ton of sense because we've already seen the same environmental flood around AI as we see with every emerging technology that we did with Bitcoin, right? There were articles six months ago, how AI is going to boil the ocean and use more energy than an entire country. Sounds familiar, doesn't it? But interestingly, when I had had Fred Thiel on

for Marathon, he said, listen, man, everybody calls us Bitcoin miners. We're just data centers. And I thought that that was sort of like a political way of reframing it so that they could get regulations passed or talk to legislators. But it's proving to be 100% true. The winners in Bitcoin mining are going to be 100% true. The winners in Bitcoin mining are going to be the ones who diversify out of Bitcoin mining. Yeah. Megawatt maximizers, that's another word, right? These folks are just trying to bring power on at the lowest possible cost and like a shopping mall, sign up that anchor tenant who is going to be there through the cycle and take the power that nobody else wants. And that had been Bitcoin miners for nearly a decade. And now that source of demand is

transitioning and AI is going to be a piece of it. Could that be problematic for Bitcoin mining in the future if AI becomes wildly more profitable than mining Bitcoin? Could that be an issue for the network? Well, I've often joked that the same technology that was going to liberate us may actually be used to surveil us. So I think that there is a kind of push and pull between AI and Bitcoin, but there's a lot of complex variables there. And it may just be that to the extent that US is a leader in AI, we might sacrifice some of our Bitcoin mining dominance. That energy might come from somewhere else. But I don't think that the two are necessarily always in conflict. Yeah, that makes perfect sense. I want to talk about the ETH ETF etfs it's been kind of quiet on that front but gensler said july

2nd well i say baltunis has said july 2nd and uh gensler's hinted i think that we're looking at that date i mean that's next week i mean we're talking about these things launching uh on tuesday right and here you go that means that we finally have to talk about fees vanek you plans to waive fees for potential spot Ethereum ETF at the outset. I'm actually surprised we haven't seen the fee wars escalating already. I mean, you guys just getting ahead of this, knowing that it's obviously coming because it was all the talk ahead of the Bitcoin spot ETF launches. Yeah, we've always tried to be a leader on fees. And Jan Van Eck has said publicly that he regretted not being more aggressive when the Bitcoin spot ETFs came to market. So we're going to, you know, we're putting our foot on the gasoline here and offering the product free, and we're going to make it up on volume, decentralized finance volume,

meaning we're going to put a significant amount of our own money into this product. And to the extent that the ECTF catalyzes more interest in the asset, and there's more activity on DEXs, more use cases for this open source software, that'll mean more gas fees, ETH asset will go up and we'll make money. So it's still so early to this asset class that the main hurdle is just education, convincing TradFi why this deserves a piece in a portfolio next to the FAANG stocks. And I think we put out some research on ETH as an open source app store. And I think that that theme is going to become more and more prominent over the next number of quarters and years. Just this week, the European Union Commission

levying large fines on Apple for not opening up their app store. You have Tencent, which is China's largest gaming company. They've got this hit new game, Dungeon and Fighter Mobile. It's earned $300 million this month. And they removed it from Android app stores because in China, the Android app stores take 50%. And Tencent, Dungeon and Fighter Mobile is going direct. So users are getting primed for these app store alternatives i still think the solana saga phone franchise may be underrated as a distribution engine for uh open source apps and it was encouraging to hear gensler yesterday at

the bloomberg summit say that the the ETF process is going smoothly. I don't agree it's going smoothly until we go first and the SEC reverts back to its first-come, first-served process, which has served the investing public well for years. It's getting tiresome of just giving BlackRock an automatic head start by being late to the game. But if past is prologue, it looks like these products are coming to market relatively soon. So listen, that was a nice shot, obviously, at the SEC, but that means the assumption is they're going to approve them all at once again and open the horse race, right?

Well, that was the language in the approval of the 19B4s that the SEC implied that the path for all these products to be approved at the same time is available. But I should highlight, it's a different division of the SEC that approves the S1s. So it is not too late for them to do the right thing and go back to the first come first serve model. Yeah, which is what they've always done. So obviously, when we start talking about the approval, we have to start talking about the success, the likely flows, the same things that we talked about in advance of Bitcoin spot ETF. Of course, we have Matt Hogan's here saying he expects these ETFs to attract about 15 billion of net inflows in the first 18 months. It's not a wild guess. I've had him on spaces, basically just extrapolating the same products in foreign markets and the percentage of market

share versus Bitcoin, taking a number of where we think Bitcoin will be and saying, hey, these things will be 22% to 27% the size of the Bitcoin spot ETFs. Do you think that we'll see 15 billion? Funny, I remember when 15 billion would have been a good number in people's minds for the Bitcoin spot ETFs. Do you think that we'll see 15 billion? Funny, I remember when 15 billion would have been a good number in people's minds for the Bitcoin spot ETFs of the first 18 months and it shattered that in a matter of weeks. Yeah, so that would be, 15 billion would be like 25%

of the existing stock of Bitcoin ETF AUM in one year. We're at almost 60 billion. I mean, we're just under, depending on the price. But a lot of that was GBTC, right? A lot of that was GBTC where the flows came over the last eight years. So it sounds like a nice optimistic target. I think it's going to be back end loaded. I think that the advisors are still sharpening their pencils on Bitcoin and maybe need just a little more of like red wave election momentum or even the event in order to get very aggressive. So I think 15 billion would be a good number, a very good number. I don't think that that much is required to move the price substantially, though, of ETH, the asset, because it's much less liquid than BTC.

There's even less inflation. So I think even like $5 billion in flows could cause a 40% to 50% rally. Right. I mean, we saw even on the news that these were being approved on the 19B4s, we saw a 30%-ish move on Ethereum. My favorite stat there, just to give people context on the market, was that in one day,

Ethereum added the market cap of an entire Solana, right? So it just shows you as you kind of drop down how much influence news or flows can have as the assets get smaller and smaller and smaller. Interestingly, we saw a Solana ETF floated in Canada. I don't think that's coming to the United States anytime soon, do you? You may be surprised, Scott. Oh, my God. You may be surprised.

You heard it here first, folks. Yeah, I would be surprised, Scott. Oh, my God. You may be surprised. You heard it here first, folks. Yeah, I would be surprised. I would be surprised if it happens under Gensler, I should say. Nothing would surprise me if we see regime change and things change. I think the floodgates could obviously open. behind on the Ethereum ETF education process from where we were on the Bitcoin process when it launched just because of the haphazard and sort of spastic way that these things were approved. Nobody expected it. So we didn't get the marketing campaigns. We didn't have VanEck and Bitwise and everybody out on the road show meeting with RAs about this. And I feel like

it's a much harder asset to explain. I feel like the only way that these same allocators are going to allocate is the argument that you just need to be diversified within crypto. So take a percentage and put it into these Ethereum ETFs initially. There's no staking. What's the pitch? I don't disagree with you, but there will be some allocators or even equity portfolio managers who are worried about FANG margins, looking for some type of hedge, realize that ETH is a productive asset. It's a more productive asset than Bitcoin. There's a native yield, even if you aren't getting it at the outset with these spot ETFs, it may come at some point down the road. So I kind of half agree with you. I feel like the near term, first six months demand from the ETH ETF may, you know, disappoint folks who are looking for

them to take like, like, like you mentioned, a bit wise, like 25% of the existing stock of BTC AUM in the first year, that sounds like a high hurdle. But over the long run, the total market opportunity could be bigger, you can get a different type of investor, a yield-oriented investor and a productive asset-oriented investor. I'm still stuck on the fact that you were so dismissive of my no chance we get a Solana ETF comment. The Bitcoin maxis freaked out when the Ethereum spot ETF was approved. And you saw these tweets, you're like, well, I guess we're going to get a Solana and a Cumrocket and a MOG and a Doge with dog face ETF, because why not now? And I kind of pushed back and said, Bitcoin and Ethereum have markets of meaningful size. I've traded on CME futures

to my understanding, those are big hurdles. We don't have Solana CME futures. So what's the mechanic for something like a Solana ETF to be approved at this point? Because I was dead wrong if that's on the market. So if you recall, in order to satisfy the regulated market of significant size. Folks have been using the CME futures market, but there was also talk of surveillance sharing agreements between the relevant crypto exchanges and the listing exchange, in this case, Chicago Board of Exchange or NASDAQ. And Coinbase negotiated

and signed those deals before the Bitcoin spot ETF came to market, but they were not put into effect. In the end, they used futures market. If the exchanges are willing to sign those similar surveillance sharing agreements for, say, Solana, then perhaps that might be the market. So we'll see. I think when you read the language in the Ethereum 19b4s about the decentralization characteristics, about what makes Ethereum a commodity, you can basically substitute Solana for Ethereum in every sentence there. And the truth still holds. So there are also examples of commodity-based ETFs that do not have a futures market. So there may be a chance, like I said, it might surprise you. Won't be Gary. I'll stick to my, it won't be under Gary, but hey, man, you know, maybe I'm

wrong. I just don't think we'll have a Gary regardless. So I guess maybe that's the more compelling argument. I want to talk a bit about real world assets. It's obviously been one of the biggest narratives that we've seen. We saw obviously BUIDL. I still don't know if we pronounce it Biddle or Build from BlackRock, but cute that they did it. Obviously with Securitize, now we see news today, Invescorp and Securitize Launch Fund tokenization partnership. Of course, Invescorp's huge international institution going to be taking advantage of the same sort of narrative here that you can tokenize these things, move them faster, collateralize

them, all the real reasons we love it. And you guys have a tokenization RWA platform segment as well. It's happening. But is this like happening, happening? Or is this we're really excited and in four years, we're still talking about how this is happening? Yeah. So my answer to the RWA question for most of the last

two years was, meh. It's not a great way to make money. If you think about the opportunity cost of investing, do you want to buy Bitcoin and Ethereum and Solana, or do you want to build some tokenized money market fund that earns 20 bps and like duplicates all your costs because you're already running the same product on tradfi rails uh you know it when when btc was at 20k 30k you know not that interesting i would say that over the last six months uh we have pivoted and changed our mind on that and are starting to bring products to market, building natively in the space. So one of them is Segment, Mint spelled M-I-N-T. It's the only NFT fractionalization platform where you can retain ownership of the underlying NFTs. So if you have an NFT, it uses this ERC-1155 format to fractionalize your NFT into keys,

which other folks can buy, and then you can buy back those keys to redeem the NFT. So we think of it as the intermediary between tokenized collectibles and the collectors themselves. And we're going after the wine wine and spirit backed NFT market, watches, trading card collectibles. We're requiring a pretty high level of disclosure like white papers around how the asset can be redeemed. And if the RWA tokenization platforms are the L1, we're trying to be the L2 in this case and help collectors fragment those assets and find more liquidity. So this is for real world assets, but is it also for CryptoPunks and Bored Apes?

Yeah, it's for NFTs and physical collectibles. What it's not for is ETFs. So the regulation in Europe, there's a distinction between a collectible and a security. But in the future, as that clarity emerges, we think there's a lot of optionality in this platform. The other RWA that we are building is a stablecoin. So Jan van Exen, Nick, is building Agora. AUSD will be the stablecoin. And that is going to launch at the end of this month. And Van Eck will make the first mint. We're partnering with market makers. And Agora is going to start a price war with Circle and a win, we think. So we think that

AUM for Agora should be at $100 million within weeks after launch and $1 billion within a quarter. What does a stablecoin fee war look like? I mean, what does that look like? What is the situation with Circle? I don't think most people understand the mechanics underlying stablecoins. We all know they make a hell of a lot of profit by buying treasuries, right? But when you're in a Zerp environment, stablecoins also need to be able to make money, right? So how does that work and where is that competition? Jason Lowery, CTO, Circle basically has to pay 50% of their revenues to Coinbase. And that limits their flexibility in striking deals with other platforms. So the end user, the person who just wants to hold the stablecoin for a few weeks

as working capital, under the current US regulatory regime, they're probably not going to be able to collect interest. But the partners who distribute those stable coins, be it DEXs, centralized exchanges, whatever, a Fortune 500 company, they're going to want a piece of that interest. And so through kind of bilateral deals, Agora can be more aggressive in sharing the interest with partners who can act as distributors. And we just think that Tether and Circle are over-earning. And then if Agora and Nick are more generous in sharing the interest with partners that will catalyze significant market share gains. I'm trying to remember who said it. Maybe it was Jeremy Allaire recently said he thinks that stable coins could be 10% of all money in a decade. Seems hyperbolic when you look at the size. I don't know how many tens of trillions the money market is, 80, 70, 80,

something like that. But I mean, that would imply an $8 trillion market cap for stable coins. I don't know if those numbers are correct. I'm going off my very poor memory, but is that possible? Yeah. I mean, that's our thesis as well. I think it's becoming more consensus in Washington, even that stable coins are a Euro dollar replacement, and that if we're going to be issuing the type of debt that we are over the next five years, we need to make it easier for counterparties to buy US debt, not harder. 82.6 trillion. I just looked it up. So I was pretty close. But I think if the implication is that the United States doesn't get a CBDC and stable coins sort of become the de facto digital money for the United States. I think 8 trillion small in 10 years. Yeah. Yeah.

Any other final thoughts before I let you go? Anything you're dying to talk about? I mean, I'm really excited for these ETF launches next week. It just seems like people kind of forgot about it because of this dead period. But it's going to be a lot of fun to sort of analyze what's going on there, see how much interest is in them and see how they grow. Yeah, I think when we look at, you know, past halving years and up cycles in general, ETH generally is a large outperformer versus BTC. And everyone has been waiting for the catalyst there. And I agree with you. I think it's the ETFs. And I think it should also ignite some mean reversion in the altcoins, small caps, starting to see that in some of the

OG DeFi platforms where they're making markets in ETH pairs. They can't not work if ETH is working. Come on. Yeah, I mean, the ETH trade has been the slowest lagging trade of all time. But even before the ETH ETF, I kind of have viewed that as a really big opportunity. And listen, like a Solana move can spark a little altcoin season on Solana with meme coins, but a really big move from ETH to me is what could spark an alt season of old. Not saying everything will go up 400% at the same time like it used to, but it could sort of awaken these dormant dead projects that actually still exist and are not completely gone fundamentally. Yep. Totally agree. Awesome. Thank you so much, Matt.

Look forward to have you on again soon. You always just rattle through it and give us all the data and bullishness we need. I got it. So clearly we'll all remain bullish going forward. Thanks, Matt. Speak to you soon. Catch you later, Scott. All right, guys, before I bring on Chris,

I just could tell you guys, actually good timing that we were talking about Bitcoin miners and then becoming data centers and how the proliferation of AI and compute and that's going to be the opportunity of the future because we all know that none of us can generally participate in that, but now you can.

And that computer is extremely expensive if you need it. But with Blender, B-L-E-N-D-R.network right here, you guys can check it out. Obviously, secure, scalable access to computing resources via blockchain for research and development. This is a decentralized marketplace where you can buy and sell the compute that you need for heavy file rendering, for participating in AI, obviously, even a mining element to that. So really interesting way for people to be able to participate in these things. It would be way too expensive. This is the promise of decentralization to realize the reason that we all love crypto

and blockchain in the future. So I really cheer for things like this to work because it gives a little guy access, the same reason that we love crypto in general so check them out down below in the description i'm not we're deader this week chris than even last week every day i come out i'm like we're dead it's over an hour at 60 000 we got to be dead it's got to be you know we just want to make sure everybody's bored and they think that the end of the world's here and uh you know everything's going to hell and then that way we can you know have it go up and then everybody be like oh you know how did that happen it must be manipulated um but yeah you know uh pulled back uh a bit more than i was looking for initially um let me kind of zoom in a little bit here

that 200 ma there man yeah 200 ma right here and uh you also notice we hit the uh the s1 pivot here on the daily we've got this big spat of um hidden bullish divergence on rsi here from uh may through the end of june here so a couple of months worth of uh worth of uh bullish uh hidden bullish divergence um you know and here's the thing even with this candle, I mean, look at the volume. The volume is still relatively nothing compared to the beginning of the range, right? So when we're looking at ranges, we want to go, okay, well, what's going on with volume? And basically what we're seeing throughout this range here is that volume just kind of continues to die off. Other than just right now here, you have this little bit of a pump here.

If this were to be distribution, what we look for on this move on this rejection here is we look for volume to be picking up quite a bit, right? We look for more and more acceptance of that downtrend and that continuation to push lower. And we're just not seeing that at the moment. So, you know, as I continue to watch this, you know, I still look at this as accumulation. There's nothing in the volume and price action that suggests otherwise. But, you know, right now, what am I looking for? I'm looking for, you know, a nice impulsive breakout above this descending resistance right here and close above it. If we can get that to me, that'll say we're probably bottomed out here.

And the next move will be a breakout, another impulsive breakout and close above the daily pivot, uh, the pivot here on the daily, but you know, we're already on the 26th here. Uh, you know, next week is July. So it won't, it won't be this one. It'll probably move down here a bit lower, but that'll be, you know, might even be right around this red line where potentially it ends up breaking out depending on when. So that, by the way, that move on RSI to oversold, that's the first time since last August when we were at like 28,000. Yeah, I was talking about it. It's crazy. It's like, you know, we've done this whole rally up for a year just about and daily RSI has just stayed above, uh, oversold. So it's kind of, um, poetic,

I guess that it kind of gets there now on this point where everybody's giving up, uh, Prince that hidden bullish divergence. I mean, you know, to me, it still looks good. It's a bit of a deep pullback on, on this, uh, off this rally here. Um, but you know, again, it did catch that S1 pivot there on the daily. It is above the, uh, the 200 MA. My thought is if we do break down, um, I think everybody, most people seem to be really kind of bearish right now. Uh, you know, you can just look at just about anywhere. Um, everybody end of the world, it's the top, you know, it's not going any higher, blah, blah, blah.

So they're all, if they're not already short from here and just kind of you know just looking at the chops here waiting for this to break down then they're going to want to you know go short the minute we get the breakdown here um and i think that's probably a really bad move i could see a possible move where we get like a wick down there and it traps them and immediately shoots back up i was looking for i was looking for a bigger reaction coming off this low here so i'm not necessarily convinced that the bottom's in just yet it could be um you know but most of the time yeah you know most time when you're getting this longer kind of sideways when you hit that bottom you kind of really take off like you kind of did here i was looking something for more something like this yeah like you know like if the weekly closes a thousand higher that's going to be a

you know it may not look like it on the daily but on the weekly if you close even at 63 that's insane you know exactly and we've and we're what we're only we're only on wednesday so i mean listen that that could end up being a huge part of the downside for all I know. We have four days, but yeah. Yeah. But again, four days, easily, this is Bitcoin, right? It could easily go that high. So I mean, I think there's a lot more to look at positively here than there is to look negatively. But emotions are going to be emotion and people are going to people and you know it is what it is uh but for me i don't see any reason at the moment here to think oh my god we have to you know that this is the top we have to go down it was like double top no uh you know all these

kind of things so i think we're looking the other way we can look at this um this is the the bit b chart here this is bitwise um by the way i iBit looks exactly the same. I just like bitwise. I love the guys. They're awesome, Matt and them. But if we're counting this here, this appears to be a one, two and a one, two here. And so, again, it may be a bit of a cleaner count here than what people are looking at on Bitcoin. You can see all this volume that came in down here. So when we hit the low again at that S1 pivot on the daily, had a nice spike of volume. And then yesterday, almost the same amount of volume and we popped up higher here. We gapped up and then closed up higher. So I'm looking for this, if we, I'm looking for this, uh, if we can get this to

continue up here, obviously, you know, for using LA way, we've got to get above wave B here, which is $38 and 21 cents. If we do that, that gives us this 47, 72 target for wave three coming off that. Um, if we did happen to break down a little bit lower here, again, to me, this looks like five up. Um, if it did break down a little bit lower, that would suggest this is probably an A and a B, and then they're just finishing a C. So again, what we're looking at on the Bitcoin chart would be same thing here, basically just a, just kind of like a dip below to trap people and then take up about, you know, a flat here. So, you know, again, if we're not there, I think we're pretty close to it. And I think a lot of people will trapped. But, you know, the flip side of that is,

it seems like everybody and their grandmother's thinking we have to go down there. They're convinced we have to go down. So the real pain, I don't think necessarily would be the trapping them. I think it would be this thing where it doesn't go down. Right. And they're convinced it is and they hold on and they're thinking they're afraid to go long. And then next thing, you know, you know, Bitcoin's popping up way back up here and they finally go long when it breaks out to a new all time high. I think that's the more the max pain than just kind of getting trapped right here psychologically. Right. Yeah. So, again, I think we're looking OK there. I think I talked with you last week um about the uh the all coin dominance chart and we were you know i was looking for the rally off off this uh this s1 pivot again here this is on the weekly uh we

did get that we got a decent close i would like to have seen a little bit higher up kind of like with bitcoin but here we are following up and um and you know as you can see here we're dipping for just uh right around oversold on RSI here. And again, this is the weekly, right? So I think altcoins, again, if they're not bottomed, they're like there. I think they're just about there. Bottoming. Yeah.

Yeah. We should really be paying attention. Ethereum, I've gone ahead and said, okay, it looks like we've got five waves up here. We've got a 61.8 pullback right to the previous resistance as support. So, um, again, we need to break out above 36, 57, this area right here. If we could do that from here, it gives us a wave three up there on 56, 15, five waves up around 63, 96 off this, um, this may swing low here. It is possible we could get one more drop further to 70.5, which is right around 31.15. I definitely wouldn't put that out of the picture. But again, breaking out above this 36.57 should have us going up, heading toward a new all-time high then.

So that kind of aligns with the whole idea of the altcoins bottoming or being very close to it you and i've been talking about ethereum bitcoin forever and a day it seems like um monster bullish divergence just monster bullish divergence yeah yeah and you know yeah right at the bottom there yeah yeah that mine man so like line of death yeah yeah exactly world war one trench warfare to get past god every time we get excited just smack down well and what i like about this though is we get this nice big bullish engulfing candle here and it's a good spike of volume here locally and and even across here the volume hadn't been up that high high since way back over here around March of last year on this little bit of a drop here. So I like what I'm seeing so far here. We rallied up to that resistance. We're kind of pulling back here. We just need a break on out through that. If we

can, things are looking good. I've got a wave five target up here at 0.1345, minimum expected based off the height here of this. Now that could actually go higher, but for now, just based off the height of wave four here, I do have that target. So, you know, again, uh, we, we usually look to this Ethereum Bitcoin, uh, chart as, you know, like as a precursor to alts, uh, kind of moving up. So it looks like we may be there we still have to break out there though uh speaking of all it's i've got cas here uh casper it used to look good yeah i just i just want to see a break here above this uh 0.180257 this is on a mex uh and if we can do that that gives us a wave three up here at 38.7 cents.

So it looks pretty good. We got five waves up where we would expect right around the previous swing high. We've got an ABC down, 50% retracement. I mean, it all looks good. Just got to get above wave B to kind of pop up there and do it. Now, the odds are we could kind of maybe get up here around that 17 cent area right here and then pull back before we get higher up. But overall, again, ultimately, we're looking for that breakout above that wave B to get us up there toward this 38.5 kind of cent target area.

I've got Saul here. Saul, it's looking like a diagonal. I've got an ABC. i've got an abc we had a deep pull back here we're gonna need to break out above that wave be at 175 60 but if we can do that um we got potentially a fifth wave target up here around 246 and three quarters um so you know a little bit of room to kind of get up there. Uh, you know, if you were to kind of, if you were to sit here and go, well, yeah, that looks good. I think that's probably what it is. Then what you'd want to do is you'd want to put your stop loss right below the swing low there. Um, and you know, and again,

target that area up there, but you got to use proper risk management, right? You can't go all in. You can't go 50 times your leverage. You can't go whatever, you know, all these silly things that the traders do before they really learn how to trade, which ends up losing them a lot of money, right? Losing all their money and more. But as long as you're using proper risk management here, yeah, you'd put that stop loss just below the swing low here and, you know, shoot for that. Maybe you don't want to kind of put it way down here and go, Oh, well, you know, if it does, then it could, you know, just drop a little bit lower and go, you got it again, proper risk management. You got to be willing to, to accept that, uh, if you're using it, at least that you could be wrong on your trade and you're okay with, you know, with being wrong. Um, but right now, you know, all these areas here,

we're finding support in this, um, this low volume node here. And so I always like that. So we'll see if we can get that up but again that 175 60 is the level we need to kind of break out through there bonk seem like everybody's still talking about bonk bonk did you the the memes the memes bounce the hardest sadly yeah yeah great rally off here you know again it looks like a I don't have it here, but it looks like ABC, it looks like ABC, well, ABC here, and then A, B, and potentially C, so it diagonals what I'm looking at, that would give us a minimum expected target of this 6554, secondary target up here at 11301, but as we're kind of looking at this, I mean, again, this, this daily candle right here is really nice.

A bullish candle, bullish engulfing candle kind of thing going on here. A little bit of volume. We've got the same amount of volume just about following the next day, continuing up. Um, and so, I mean, it's looking pretty decent to me at the moment. It will pull back along the way, guys. It's not like, oh, bye here. And it's definitely going to continue going up right away. But again, the same as with the with the solid trade, you know, you'd want to put your stop loss just below that swing low there.

But, you know, it did great. It got caught right here in this fair value gap where you would expect again, low volume note area. I mean, everything just kind of aligns finding support around the s1 pivot so uh we'll see if we can get that rally up but those targets are looking pretty decent and finally i got uni here i don't know if it's been a while since we talked about uni but um again we got a one two three i was thinking for a while that maybe we had a three and a four and a five and then a b c playing out Here, but the more I looked at this looks like a lot of three waves So this looks like that kind of rare megaphone pattern that inverted symmetrical triangle

And so we get an a we get a B higher C lower D higher and e right around that swing low again Yes, one two three low again. So based on the height of this year, you know, looking for a wave five, probably up there around $14 and 60 cents, which gets us right to this previous area of support and resistance. Just, you know, beyond this last kind of throw here that got us that swing high. So it's a good, you know, kind of area where we would normally expect to get to. Looks good. But we definitely want to see it. For this one here, we want to see a nice impulsive breakout and close above the hourly pivot here around $10.34 or so to kind of say, okay, yeah, the bottom's probably in and we're heading up. So overall, you know, not looking terrible, not moving as fast as most people would want.

I think again, if alts are not bottomed out, I think they're very close. I think they got one local push down, not like a huge push down. But you know, I think now, you know, again, like last week and now you really should be watching, uh, for your entries. Cause a lot of people are going to miss it here. And then in a couple of months, they're going to complain that, oh, you know, I missed that. I wish I'd gotten in there. Yeah. This is a good time. If you're really like passionate about a longer term position for the cycle to start thinking about adding, regardless of trading or not. I kind of wrote that in the newsletter this morning. I have one really important question for you though.

Okay. Very important. How do you pronounce this word? Fidelity. Fidelity. Damn it. I kept saying fidelity and I was getting roasted. And then the guy from Fidelity told me it was Fidelity.

And it's just been stuck in my head. He acts like he knows, like he's the source. I don't understand how it can be fidelity and Joe Biden isn't Joe Budden if it's fidelity. He's not? Joe Budden. Whatever, man. Rapper.

Anyways, I'm not going to repeat that assault on your senses, everyone, today. I just wanted to see if just maybe like the knee-jerk reacted, you had said fidelity. It's just fidelity to me. High fidelity. said fidelity. It's just fidelity to me. High fidelity. High fidelity. It's an S and I. Why not, right? Whatever, man.

I don't know how I turned into a UH sound, but welcome to America. American English. Anyways, guys, that's all we got for you today. Follow Chris TX West Capital. I saw you have a lot of stuff going on today. You got Gary Cardone corner. I saw that you stole Andrew and Tillman. I love that.

Man, you know, we were doing the Friday thing. They were a guest one Friday on my Friday show, and I was just kind of all of a sudden said, you know, we should do a Beards and Bitcoin show. It sounded great, whatever. They were like, hell yeah, let's do it. So, absolutely great stuff. I love doing them. It's a great show with them.

Still just really wish you had said fidelity. Anyways, guys, that's all we got for you today. We will see you on Twitter spaces and beyond. Go check out the rest of Chris's shows today. He's got a lot going on guys. Thank you so much.

See you soon. Bye. Take care. Let's go.