The Wolf Of All Streets - How Low Can Bitcoin Go? Dan Held’s Top Reasons to Stay Bullish!

Episode Date: October 3, 2024

Dan Held, GP at Asymmetric, joins me to share his bullish stance on Bitcoin despite the ongoing crypto crash.  Dan Held: https://x.com/danheld In the second part of the show, Dan from The Chart Guys will share his market analysis and some trades.  The Chart Guys: https://www.youtube.com/@ChartGuys  ►► EARN WEEKLY REWARDS WHILE CHATTING WITH ME ABOUT CRYPTO! 👉https://roundtable.rtb.io/shortUrl/f0pszai ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEKDAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/   ►► The Arch Public Unleash algorithmic trading. Discover how algorithms used by hedge-funds are now accessible to traders looking for unparalleled insights and opportunities!  👉https://thearchpublic.com/  ►►TRADING ALPHA READY TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS? THE BEST TRADERS IN CRYPTO ARE RELYING ON THESE INDICATORS TO MAKE TRADES. Use code '10OFF' for a 10% discount. 👉https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker  Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://x.com/scottmelker Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.com/ Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe   Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c   #Bitcoin #Crypto #Investments The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

It's October 3rd, the third day of October, and Bitcoin has once again been declared dead. It's going to zero. It's over because how dare Bitcoin trade as low as $60,000? What a nightmare, guys. You know, sarcasm doesn't translate on X or on the internet. I'm hoping that sometimes it translates on YouTube because I am not concerned here at all. And I can tell you that today's guest Bitcoin OG Dan Held is not concerned either. How low can Bitcoin go? I don't think either of us can give you an exact number, but we can tell you how high it can go and all of the reasons that it can go there. We're going to talk about it right now. What is up, everybody?

I'm Scott Melker, also known as the Wolf of Wall Street. Let's go. Dan hasn't heard it in a while. Here he is. Dan Held with the cool lighting. You're giving me studio envy. Your setup is better than mine. How are you, man? Doing well, Scott. Thanks for having me on. I recently got this built. It's pretty simple, just a coat of black paint and some lights, but thank you for the compliment. I am in a room in my own house that's literally a unpainted normal wall with two purple lights so i take my job very seriously yes you know that yeah of course yeah so anyways listen you know october we're supposed to be in the fourth quarter everything we're supposed to be at a hundred thousand dollar bitcoin uh obviously the market makers are broken. We're all bearish now. I don't think you share the bearish sentiment, obviously. And you have a long laundry list that

I share in sentiment of reasons why we should be bullish right now. These were a few from the other day that were, I think, very hyper-specific. But signs that we're finally shaking off the snow from the bear market, Coinbase is down. I love that one. How is that still a thing, by the way? You know, I think when it comes to like load balancing with these huge surges in the market, it's very, very difficult. Like you don't want all these servers up and running and ready and capable unless there's demand for it. Otherwise you're wasting money. So I can see the dilemma that they're in. I mean, it's really hard to spin up that much demand on it's really hard to snap your fingers spin up that much supply to match the demand in terms of server load uh but yeah i mean things get complicated years later i know

i mean it's a business it's a positive signal when coinbase goes down not even a negative thing honestly yeah yeah it's almost a marketing message for them in a way. I agree. I wouldn't fix it if I were them either. I would literally shut it down for a few seconds every single time to signal that things are bullish. Five shift on CT. I agree with that.

CG Group's popping up. Beware. Little overhang left with FTX. I think we're getting clarity there. No Gox FUD, which is amazing to see that finally cleared out. So listen, I think those were immediate signals, obviously, on that sort of given day. But I think the bigger signals are the ones that we're going to talk about. I'm going to kind of throw the news out the window. And we're just going to have a talk about all the things that are being built,

because I know you're very deep in building DeFi on Bitcoin, obviously, but that leads to a larger discussion on how much Bitcoin is fundamentally changing and how many things are being built on it that have not moved the price yet. I often talk about the difference between value and price. I don't think price has caught up to the value of everything that's happening on Bitcoin. And then just the level of institutional adoption is insane. I mean, Larry Fink literally sounds like Satoshi Nakamoto on TV on a daily basis, and I don't think that's remotely priced in. Yeah. So there's a lot to unpack here, but let's first talk about that digital gold narrative that Larry Fink is showing.

I still think digital gold is the primary narrative for Bitcoin. So we'll talk about Bitcoin DeFi in a minute. But Bitcoin is the most pristine piece of collateral in the world because it's the best money. When we look at a credibility of a monetary policy, so what makes for a good money, right? We can talk about how it's divisible and transportable, but the ultimate factor of what is a good money or what is a sound money is the credibility of that money. Do we believe credibly that the supply will be scarce? Now, gold was the most credible money on the planet for quite some time because of the proof of work function of finding more gold and gold was relatively scarce. But we actually don't even know how much gold exists or how much gold will exist.

And we certainly know that there's a lot of gold out there in the solar system alone. So the scarcity factor was limited and was limited to basically Earth and limited in our capacity of just knowing that it's hard to get or hard to find. It's limited in some capacity, but we don't really have any sort of granularity over how scarce that is or how credibly scarce it is. Bitcoin versus fiat and every other crypto asset is the most credibly scarce money out there. So it has the most credible monetary policy. The 21 million hard cap will likely, I mean,

99.9% likely never be breached. There will, you know, of course the Bitcoin community can come together and change that, but the probability of that happening is lower than every other probability of any other coin ever being as credible as Bitcoin. So first and foremost, the digital gold narrative, that narrative is so sticky and so popular that you've got fucking Larry Fink chilling it on CNBC, which I mean, I was in a room full of like a dozen dudes back in 2012 in San Francisco. We were drinking PBRs and we just dreamed one day that a VC would fund one of us at the startups.

So to see us make it all the way to here is huge. But building on top of that digital gold narrative, there's a really cool new emergent narrative called Bitcoin DeFi. So building DeFi on top of Bitcoin. And narrative, there's a really cool new emergent narrative called Bitcoin DeFi. So building DeFi on top of Bitcoin. And I know at first everyone's like, OK, wait a second. Bitcoin can't do all the things that Ethereum and Solana can do. You're completely correct.

Bitcoin in the base layer is not capable of doing some of these things. However, it can do some unique things on Bitcoin layer one, as we saw with Ordinals. Ordinals made NFTs on Bitcoin extremely popular. And we saw NFTs on Bitcoin surpass trading volume in Ethereum NFTs, which was pretty wild, especially because Ordinals launched in a bear market with very limited wallet UX. And to see it rocket into existence and become really popular, one of the most popular NFT chains in that sort of order was incredibly bullish. So we're starting to see glimmers of the DeFi activity happening on Bitcoin L1 and Bitcoin L2s. So Bitcoin L2s, there's quite a few out there. We can talk about that, I think, as an entirely separate conversation here. But those allow for

Bitcoin to be taken and bridged to that L2. And then there's a lot of things you can do on that L2. You can lend, borrow, stake, yield farm. Bitcoin L2s, I think, will unlock that true DeFi-esque functionality that people are used to on SVM and EVM chains. Yeah. Taproot, I think, really obviously opened the door for a lot of these things. In many view, everything now that happened on Ethereum as sort of a testnet for what couldcated into the angry, toxic, old, hey, you kids, stop playing your loud hip hop and letting your ball get on my lawn, people. And the, hey, maybe the world evolves crowd. You jumped into the, hey, maybe the world evolves crowd and obviously believe that things can continue to build on Bitcoin.

How much do you think that that will fundamentally move price or affect the cycles moving forward? Because we've always been able to just say, listen, supply, demand, cool. But now we have all of these other elements of things. I mean, when you add ETFs, of course, we know what that does. But then you add options on the ETFs, fully financializing these products. The next thing is going to obviously be BNY Mellon custodying Bitcoin and offering yield or lending. Right. I mean, these things are all coming. What is that going to mean for Bitcoin in the future? Will it change the way these sort of cycles look?

Yeah, we'll touch on the TradFi side real quick and then I'll hop back over to DeFi. So on TradFi world, couldn't be more excited that options are coming to Bitcoin. Options, as you mentioned, are increasing Bitcoin step into financialization in the traditional world. Options do not mean that there's going to be sneaky things going on with different investment banks or anything else. Options are simply contracts to speculate as to the price of Bitcoin. And to hedge. To hedge. This is to take off, to sell your upside in terms of throwing off a yield in a way, which is selling your upside. Those are called covered calls. There's all sorts of strategies here that benefit both

hodlers and institutions. And this does not impact Bitcoin's decentralization. It does not impact institutional capture of Bitcoin, which is not happening. Bitcoin hasn't changed at all. Institutions are bending the knee for Bitcoin. So yeah, I saw that as a hugely beneficial thing for Bitcoin. So ETFs have driven a massive amount of demand and in a bull market, which we have not entered a bull run yet. Until retail comes back, we're not in a bull run. We're not seeing Google search trends for buy Bitcoin go up. We're not seeing Coinbase hit the number one app in the app store. Retail still isn't back yet. And so once we see that happen, I think we're going to see some massive flows into the Bitcoin ETFs. The Bitcoin ETFs represent a new way that

people can one tap, click, add Bitcoin to their portfolio versus before you used to have to wire money into Coinbase, give your blood type, firstborn child's name. You know, it was a whole ordeal. You got to hold up the paper with the face and write the date and proof of life. That's my favorite. Yeah. Boomers don't want to do that. And they've got a bunch of money in their retirement accounts.

And I've even had firsthand accounts where I've seen boomers go, yeah, you know, the ETF is when I finally bought Bitcoin. So that's going to be huge. That's going to be a driver of tens or hundreds of billions of dollars of demand. Then we look at DeFi on Bitcoin. And this is where I think this is the sleeping giant that not a lot of people are thinking about.

Look at, for example, Babylon. Babylon allows Bitcoin to be used as proof of stake on other chains. Well, proof of stake assets are great. There's an inherent flaw, though, when your proof of stake asset is on the native asset of your own chain, because that can lead to some bad game theoretic scenarios, where if the loss of confidence in your chain occurs, then that collateral value starts to plummet, which then weakens the security and there's sort of a spiral effect versus using the most pristine trustworthy asset in the space, Bitcoin, as that proof of stake collateral to provide game theoretic security for your chain. I think that's a tremendously under looked and undervalued demand for Bitcoin. In a bull run,

we could see demand of that being in the hundreds of billions of dollars, where, of course, like, why wouldn't I want to use Bitcoin for my proof of stake chain? That's just one example of many on the Bitcoin DeFi side. You have the classic lending and borrowing. So instead of people selling their Bitcoin, they're borrowing dollars using their Bitcoin as collateral. Really easy to see use cases here. These were popularized in Solana and Ethereum for obvious reasons in a speculative market cycle. People want to play financial games or they want to use different financial instruments. I call those instruments financial games. That's really what people like to play here. Yield farming, staking, lending options, writing, like call writing.

I remember last cycle, you tested it, right? You said, I'm going to say, I literally remember this for some reason. Maybe I had to talk about it. I i was like i'm going to take one percent of my bitcoin or something and see what it's like to lend it and kind of go through that process it's very different when it's celsius versus bank of new york right so i mean i think we all learned a lot of lessons with that but conceptually you said it the first thing you said was bitcoin is the most pristine collateral right michael saylor said that to me in the first interview I did with him, probably two weeks after he bought Bitcoin for the first time. He said, if you own real estate in Manhattan since the 1800s,

you don't sell it and take a loan against it. You never sell it. He's like, good luck taking my mega yacht that's sitting in the Mediterranean that I've taken a loan against if I default on my loan. But Bitcoin is sitting in a wallet controlled by the person who is taking my loan. This is easy. It's the best collateral there is. And that is going, whether you believe in borrowing and lending against it or not, it

is coming and it will be huge. Absolutely. And this is where, you know, people were fading this category where they're like, that's not possible in Bitcoin or why would Bitcoiners want to do that? 87% of Bitcoin holders hold another crypto asset. This idea that every single Bitcoin holder is a maxi is just completely not true. In fact, it's an extremely small minority if you include those who both only own Bitcoin and exist on Twitter, et cetera. And you have to actually live in your mom's basement.

There's a lot of basement dwellers. The kind of maxi plebs are in that category. And that's where I think when we look at the true Bitcoin market, a lot of people would be into lending, borrowing, staking. And by the way, if you just want to hodl, that's completely okay. And I highly recommend it. This isn't me encouraging people to do so. But if you want to do so, I believe in someone's right to do so. Also, there's different look, you have different life circumstances.

You don't live forever. So, for example, you might want to sell a covered call to throw off a yield or something to live off of if you don't want to sell your Bitcoin, which, again, still has a risk of you being called away. You might want to lend it. Of course, lending means that your borrower could default. You might want to borrow against it. But of course, then you have an interest rate to pay on your debt. There's all sorts of different circumstances here, but each one allows us to have more flexibility with the best piece of collateral in the world. So I think the demand side there is massive. And we really haven't even touched, like this hasn't even been touched in the

previous cycles. So what are the consequences of this? One, this increases demand for Bitcoin, which is already incredibly scarce at 21 million. This increased demand for Bitcoin combined with the ETFs, I think will lead to a really strong bull run. I think we'll outperform the last bull run cycle. And I also think, two, we will see Bitcoin's dominance go up. So Bitcoin's dominance has been declining for quite some time. And I think a lot of that's due to one, of course, there's going to be speculative new assets that are created all the time. So Bitcoin's dominance was doomed to decline, right? But I do think with DeFi coming back to Bitcoin, there's less of a reason to go to some of these other chains. And so it could see Bitcoin's dominance go up. By the way, this

isn't me saying that other chains are all going to die. I personally think Solana. Yeah, I think Solana, the cycle two is going to outperform quite a bit. Retail is going to look at Solana and they're going to say this is the next Ethereum. But that's that's going to be the narrative. And I think Solana has also made the right sort of series of tradeoffs of being the best smart contract platform out there versus like, for example, I think Ethereum is in a difficult spot this cycle and has been underperforming because I think it's in a narrative tough spot where it's not the best smart contract platform.

It's also not the best sound money. So yeah. Yeah. I mean, I agree with that, but I also think that it takes one Larry Fink tokenizing something else on Ethereum to send it flying. So I'm not as bearish, I think, on Ethereum as other people are. But fundamentally, I agree with you, right? You're kind of like, you're not as secure and there's not as much TVL as Bitcoin and you're not as fast and cheap, obviously, as Solana. But listen, you're talking about, obviously, how this cycle will look. We talk about ETF inflows and outflows. They don't matter at this point. We know that it just kind of follows the cycle. But we have this from CryptoQuant. I mean, the data supports everything that you're saying here, right? So this is Bitcoin balance,

old whales versus new whales. Old whales have sort of flattened off here in 2024 as they're buying, but new whales, aka institutions, if you guys are wondering who New Wales would be, are buying like crazy, as CryptoQuant says here, as Key says. Look at how fiercely the New Wales are stacking Bitcoin. This market has never seen such accumulation, which like your tweet here, headline in three years, Bitcoin crashes from 300K to 200K as crypto finally dead. Happens every time. And it's happening literally right now. We're three days into October and all of a sudden the top is in and there's going to be no bullish cycle. Oh yeah. I mean, it's hilarious by the way. This is my fourth cycle. So every single time there's this, I'd say kind of agonizing chop throughout the middle of this bull run year, right? Where

like we started off the year strong, six months of sideways chop, which by the way, I've got a tweet from February about that, where I described this exactly. This is the most painful path that Bitcoin can take, a path of neither heaven nor hell. It's neither bear nor bull. It's the sideways chop where it shakes out all the non-believers. If you don't have enough conviction to hold Bitcoin through this year to see the next bull run, you're going to sell. And that's what we see manifested in the charts, where we see Bitcoin hit these levels of resistance, sell back down. And that's because there's more sellers than buyers. Eventually, though, if we have any sort of demand side pressure, we blow through that as all the sellers have been exhausted over the last six

months. And that's where I think when we look at historical cycles too, this is where the action happens. It happens in late Q3, Q4. And now that we're in Q4, be prepared for some fireworks because this is historically every other cycle has always been like this. And I do think the macro environment plus Bitcoin's fundamentals, plus all the FUD we talked about, those are factored in. I think that, not factored in, those are catalysts and reasons that I'm so bullish right now. So for me, it's hilarious to think that we are feeling despair and bearishness at $60,000 of Bitcoin. It's like one of the memes, like the, what was it? Squid Games, the old man. And it's like, Bitcoin at 60,000 on the way up. And he's like, ah, and then it's like Bitcoin on the 60,000 the way down. And he's like huddled in the corner, holding his knees. It's literally the same price

and people you need to zoom out. I mean, what Dan's saying is exactly right. We say it here all the time. Right now, if we had not had an ETF approval, Bitcoin would be chopping at 35 to 40,000. We'd be super excited that it had doubled off the lows. And we would still be talking about how amazing Q4 is going to be. So what we got instead that's making people bearish is a preemptive all-time high because of the ETFs, starting the halving cycle from a much higher launching pad and fundamentally everything improving. I mean, there's more data here, right? Bitcoin apparent demand. This is also from CryptoQuant. We are in the part of the cycle

every single time where we go through the summer after the halving, demand hasn't kicked in yet, and all it takes is a little spark in demand, like we saw here through the first half of the year, to send things flying. This is time-based capitulation, the bearishness right now. A bunch of people who need it to go up today, and if it doesn't, they think it's over. Absolutely. And that's where we see that price is a represent. I'm not a huge TA fan myself.

However, the chart does represent aggregate human emotion. I caught you there. See, look. Yeah. Look at your chart emotion. I caught you there. See? Look. Yeah. Look at your chart. Look at it right there. Exactly.

This represents aggregate human emotion. This is originally, by the way, from my partner, Joe McCann, and Symmetric. I love Joe. Joe's awesome. You know, what I love about Joe as well is that him and I are willing to have heretical ideas. He was a big early Solana proponent,

early meme coin guy. And he was Captain Bonk. Yeah, I remember that. A lot of people considered that kind of lunatic, fringe, weird, and Joe doesn't give a fuck. And that's where, similarly, same with Bitcoin DeFi, this was a very heretical perspective to have that I've had for the last three years.

And now we're finally seeing it come into fruition. But yes, let's go back. Can we pull up the chart again? Yeah. So if we pull up this chart, you know, I don't believe in TA, but what this does represent is the aggregate manifest of the manifested emotion in the market. So every time we hit the peak price, that's more sellers and buyers. And then we have the price go down.

But eventually when you have that channel break, that represents that all the sellers have been exhausted. So while I don't believe in TA where you draw lines on a chart and just because things break, that means that something's happening. But what this does represent is that if every time we hit that level and everyone who wanted to sell sold, well, then eventually if we hit that level again and they've already sold before, well, who's going to sell? And so it's more of just demand outstripping supply. And so this chart, I think, represent and then when that happens, you know, and also despair has set in for this last six months, because it's like this downward trend. It's not going up, it's not going down. Like I said earlier, it's in between heaven and hell. And so that's where once we once the

market sees a clear trend upward, so any sort of demand side catalyst, where it breaks through those mental levels, or what we might call like sort of demand side catalyst where it breaks through those mental levels or what we might call like sort of those like support levels or resistance levels, that's when things really start to happen. That's when people are like, okay, it's not going to be a bear market. It's going to be a bull. I'm all in. Yeah. I mean, I agree with you. Technical analysis, I always say is just a visualization of human emotion. It's exactly how you described it. It doesn't work because some magic line knocks the price down. It works because you can see where people are most likely to make bad decisions and you can do the opposite. Absolutely. I think it's literally that simple.

So obviously, listen, I mean, you just said in that other tweet, you know, hey, laughing, we'll be at 300. Why is Bitcoin down to 200? You know, we both were sort of believers of the super cycle last time, which you, I think, coined. And we're going to straight to a million. And I was definitely a criminal for thinking everything was going to continue up indefinitely at the top of the market. Welcome, guys. We're all humans. And that's why these charts work right but um you know with it with those lessons of previous cycles in mind i mean how high do you envision we could go in a cycle conservatively yeah what i always find funny about the uh we i got a lot of flack for talking about the super cycle um i mean people forget that i've been huddling since ten

dollars so for me i i am that bullish like i this is what i've been waiting for and if the institutions are coming and all these same things are lining up that's not a crazy idea to have so uh apologies for being too bullish oh no i i guess i'll stop being as bullish as I can be. But, you know, that's where I think, you know, so between me being a little bit overexcited for last cycle, try to temper those expectations. I mean, lower bound, I think is 150. I think it'd be crazy if we didn't break 150. That's pretty low. Like that's, but this is me reacting to my previous extra bullishness so yeah I'd say that's the low I think what makes most sense is probably at least a quarter million to 300 000. like that feels right to me um but again you know yeah 150 being the low 300 feeling just right half

a million feeling insane I think that would be but it we've never had a cycle with ETFs before. Like we don't really fundamentally understand how much there's tens of trillions of dollars in retail trading accounts. Like this, this very well could be that super cycle moment. I just don't want to say that dirty word. You just need a spark, right? You're not saying it will be, you're saying it could be. And actually for this time, this is the first time that I think we have the plumbing for it to happen. That's always been the question is like we had the idea of what price could do, but we actually didn't have it like the infrastructure for it to actually happen. So having ETFs doesn't mean that the demand will be there, but it means that if we capture the

zeitgeist and get that type of demand, that we have the ability for everybody who wants to, to buy it. And that was not the case in the past. I think plumbing is the exact right way to put it. You know, we have, instead of these tiny little pipes that are connected from institutions to Coinbase and Kraken, you have gigantic pipes that are connected to the main financial infrastructure of the TradFi world. And this allows for massive institutions to go, yeah, I want to add $10 billion of Bitcoin in my portfolio. We've never seen demand capabilities this level yet of where demand can go buy Bitcoin and in such an easy and compliant way with existing TradFi regs. So this is huge. I don't think people really understand how big that will be. So maybe my super cycle

prediction was premature. Maybe we'll never have a super cycle. But again, there's so many bullish things going on here. And then also to touch on this a little bit, we touched on this previously, but we didn't really cover it. Mt. Gox. I mean, I have been around since the collapse of Mt. Gox. Did you lose points at Mt. Gox. I mean, I have been around since the collapse of Mt. Gox. Did you lose coins on Mt. Gox? Early 2014 is when Mt. Gox collapsed. Right. But did you lose coins on Mt. Gox? Because if not, you're like a unicorn. I mean, it seems like everybody who is there had something on Mt. Gox. No, no, I didn't because I'm not a fucking idiot. So what happened was at the time, if you went to the Bitcoin Talk forums, there was a

with Mt. Gox Withdraw Coins thread that was a few hundred pages of pagination of people talking about how they had problems getting their Bitcoin out. This was happening in July of 2013, almost nine months before it collapsed. I actually delivered this and a spreadsheet analyzing the spread between Bitstamp and Gox, which also showed this withdrawal issue. I hand delivered that to Wall Street Journal on a platter and they didn't report it. So like these were very apparent. It's for me,

if you worked in the industry and you paid attention on Bitcoin talk, which by the way, people weren't on Reddit. They kind of were on Reddit, but there's more Bitcoin talk. There wasn't crypto Twitter. Wasn't a thing, which, by the way, people weren't on Reddit. They kind of were on Reddit, but there's more Bitcoin Talk. There wasn't crypto Twitter wasn't a thing back then, by the way. There wasn't Telegram, really. So it was Bitcoin Talk. And if you hung out on Bitcoin Talk, there was you could see there was huge withdrawal issues. These were very material problems.

So, no, I did not lose money at Mt. Cox. So I interrupted you kind of in the middle of that, but you were saying that obviously, we don't have that overhang probably for the first time since you have been in Bitcoin. I mean, that and China FUD were like the two oldest FUDs that would always come out in the peak of the bull run. So they call this climbing the wall of worry. As the price goes higher, there's all sorts of FUD that's thrown at Bitcoin where people are like, yeah, it's not going to go higher because of China. China is going to ban it.

Well, China doesn't matter anymore. No one talks about China banning Bitcoin because that narrative is dead. Finally. But it took two cycles to have that narrative finally play out. And then you have the Mt. Gox coins. This has persisted for the 17-2021 cycle and finally won't be a narrative. But that was always this negative narrative of like, oh, there's an email from the Mt. Gox distribution or they've sold coins or some sort of thing to impact the price. None of that will exist this cycle. So that's a huge overhang of supply that

could potentially enter the market. That's been totally removed. So there's a lot of things here that I think are very different from the other cycles. Yeah. Do you have a couple more minutes? Let's see. I think I've got a few more. You can say no. Yeah.

I would. Let me say it more quickly. I like to put people on the spot. I was on with Gary Cardone yesterday, and he asked me the exact same question about targets. And I said, I think 150 to 230 or something was my kind of. I do have a few more minutes. All right. Cool. Awesome.

Oh, now literally Gary's here. The quality and size of money coming to Bitcoin is staggering. We have never seen this wave of money, very long term sticky money. And I think that's the other important part that's worth noting is that once these institutions are in, they don't like panic sell on a $2,000 move. They literally can't. Absolutely. Yeah. In fact, I think the ETF hodlers will be better hodlers than Bitcoin hodlers. They have been so far. Yeah. Data doesn't lie. It's pretty incredible to see boomers who put it in their IRA or something completely diamond handed. And I always, people

are always like, how are they holding? They should be panic selling. I'm like, they probably don't even know that price moved. They checked every quarter. Totally. I mean, that's like the Chad way to have a portfolio is you barely check it and time in the market's better than timing the market. So these ETFs allow these retirement accounts with diamond hand hodlers to hold on to Bitcoin and they're going to awesome well dan i i i haven't let you go because i know you got other things to do we will run this back again but um as the cycle continues i think uh the vibe's going to change and people are going to be a lot happier in the chat you know not telling me that it's over every single day of my life. I think I'd leave people with one word of wisdom here

is stop being a gross, grow some confidence, grow some conviction. Look, the whole point of investing is you have to invest when it's not popular. So the pit of fear and pain and despair that you're having, that you have in your stomach

is the exact reason why you should buy versus the opposite. If you're elated, you're FOMOing in, that's the wrong time to be buying. So yeah, if you're feeling that, if you're throwing negative comments at Scott, he's been here, he's been around the block quite a long time. We haven't been wrong yet. And I think that the future of Bitcoin is still super bright. Yeah. I'm going to say that if you're really that depressed at 60, try to remember what you probably

felt like at 15. That's a great way to phrase it. And it also translates to Dan without saying it as saying, don't be a huge bitch. That's all Dan and I have for you today, guys. We'll be back soon, of course, tomorrow with the Friday Five with NLW. Thank you, Dan. Thank you,

everyone. See you soon. Bye.