The Wolf Of All Streets - How To Trade Rate Hikes Like A Pro | Veteran Trader Explains

Episode Date: February 1, 2023

►► Sponsored by PRIME XBT! Sign up for a new trading account using the link below & receive up to a $7,000 deposit bonus with “wolfofallstreets” promo code.  https://u.primexbt.com/WolfOfAllStreets  My guest today is Dirk Hartig, a veteran trader with over 25 years of experience and focus on crypto & forex options.  Dirk Hartig: https://primexbt.com/authors/dirk-hartig/ PrimeXBT Academy: https://www.youtube.com/PrimeXBTAcademy https://twitter.com/PX_Academy ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER https://thewolfden.substack.com/   Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://twitter.com/scottmelker  Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/wolfofallstreets   Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.io  Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe  Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c  #Bitcoin #Crypto #trading  Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 1:30 FOMC meeting 2:30 Dirk Hartig 4:20 Trade update 7:20 TA is an art, not a science 9:40 Bullish 10:50 How to use promo code on PrimeXBT 14:20 How to prepare for rate hikes 18:20 Trading short-term volatility 24:20 Q&A 26:40 Do your own research 29:14 What if Russia escalates the war in Ukraine 30:40 Buying Ethereum 36:00 Earnings reports The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

Today is arguably one of the biggest days of the year for markets with the FOMC decision coming at around 2 p.m. Eastern Standard Time. We're going to find out if the 100% priced in 0.25 rate hike is in fact what we're going to get. But more importantly, we're going to see how Jerome Powell discusses it, what kind of words they use, and whether his tone is hawkish or dovish. Because, of course, markets don't actually move on the news. They move on the expectation versus the news. So that's what we'll be looking for. We'll be analyzing every word from one man to see how global markets will be affected because we live in a simulation and this can't be real. That can't really be the reason that markets move so aggressively, but it is. Of course, guys, last Wednesday, I had on Dirk Hartig from PrimeXBT.

You guys absolutely loved it. He was live trading. We're going to get updates on those live trades. Take a look, of course, at the stock market and talk about how you can trade and have a plan for what's likely to happen today. You guys definitely do not want to miss this. Let's go. What is up everybody? I'm Scott Melker, also known as the Wolf of Wall Street. Before we get started, please subscribe to the channel and slap the like button with all your fingers at one time and just crush your keyboard. Guys, as I said, today is a huge day and an even bigger week, right? We have FOMC today, but we also have ECB meeting coming. We have earnings for the likes of Alphabet and Meta and Amazon and Google.

I mean, basically everybody is reporting earnings this week. There's a lot of reasons to expect volatility and a lot of reasons that people are currently holding their breath right now waiting to see what happens. As usual, if you're going to have the balls to trade on days and weeks like this, you need to have a plan for what happens if things go how you expect. And of course, if things go against your plan. But you got to have a plan either way. Of course, we are sponsored by, I always point the wrong way, PrimeXBT. You can see everything down there.

And I'm going to actually let Dirk show you how to do it because he's got access to the platform openly on the screen. And we'll help. That's just a lot easier way. I'm going to go ahead and bring him on. How are you, Dirk? Hey, everybody. Good to see you.

I'm fine. Happy to be here with you again on such an exciting day. Yeah, this is a big day. We've got, I think, about four and a half hours of markets being jittery until we see what's going to happen. I mean, I discuss this every day. My base case is sort of we get 0.25, but hawkish tone. Yeah, it's like, yeah, but they don't say, hey, we're going to lay off the gas.

It's over. Yeah, it's pretty much a decision itself, in my opinion, pretty much set in stone. I think last statistics I saw this early morning is like a 99.5% expectation of 25 basis points. So they're not going to deviate from it. The interesting part will of course be Mr. Jerome Paul, like you just said so nicely, one guy having the fate of a financial markets in its hand again tonight. Definitely a simulation we are living in i mean it's crazy if this guy coughs at the wrong moment the market can move five percent yeah absolutely absolutely so that's going to be exciting i'm going to like lose a couple of words on that of course later

today in our stream here have a look at how i'm personally preparing to trade for this and how you can, you know, kind of prepare yourself for the more exotic cases, maybe, if the expectation is not met. Let's put it like this. Right, like if we got a 0.5 or maybe a zero. Why not zero, right? If we do 0.5, maybe we could do zero. Maybe first we should,

you took a live trade last week on the show. Should we go ahead and revisit that? I'm just going to bring your screen up here. Sure. Maybe first we should, you took a live trade last week on the show. Should we go ahead and revisit that? I'm just going to bring your screen up here. Sure. I want to put you on the spot because I don't know how it went. Well, it went pretty well. It could have gone better. And so, yeah, we took a live trade there last week. And so that was this one. Bought here live on the show at 3,976 points. The S&P 500 trade went super well in our direction.

We were up like 100 points when I decided, hey, on a trade in the S&P 500, that's up 100 points. I don't want to lose money anymore. That would be really, really stupid. So I put my stop loss to 4,005 points and actually was stopped out yesterday. And I'm actually quite, but still earned a bit of money, roughly $1,400. So not too bad. For sure, something nice. I can treat my wife maybe a nice dinner in Berlin this weekend from this one.

So not too bad. I'm quite happy about it. That's a very nice dinner. But, you know, Valentine's Day is coming up. So I have to, you know, there's a lot at stake always. Yeah, step up your game. So you basically moved your stop loss up into profit to make sure that no matter what happened. So this is what I always do.

You know, I had an expectation for this trade that potentially it could go like three or 400 points into profit. But if the market runs into my direction, I want to move my stop into a profit as well, because I don't want to lose on winning trades anymore. And I know a lot of people probably watching this kind of make the same experience very often that you, you know, you kind of have the right timing for the market, you enter a trade. It goes into your direction. You put your stop loss to break even or maybe a little bit into profit. When the market comes down, it's your stop loss and then goes into your direction again. And that's why I said I'm actually quite happy that this happened because like this, I can show you it doesn't only happen to you.

It happens to the professional traders out there as well and there's nothing wrong with this because the way to success in trading at least from my experience always is you have a lot of small winners you have a lot of small losses of course as well and then you'll have those one two three four five six trades that make you the big money that earn you the big money and the secret to to get to those trades is that you need to adjust your risk management towards those trades. And for me, it's always better, you know, when I'm up in the trade by quite a much, I mean, this trade was like up $5,000 already.

So that's a decent amount of money, of course. I don't want to lose on it anymore. But of course, I'm happy want to lose on it anymore. But of course, I'm happy. I mean, we timed the market super good there. We almost timed the bottom of the market there last Wednesday. So let's see how things are going to play out later. I want to show you also how I want to prepare myself for potential trade setup after the release of the inflation data or during the speak inflation data interest rate edition,

of course, or during the speech of Jerome Paul. I love that approach because listen, if things go wildly volatile to the downside today, you could have turned a $5,000 winner into a loser. That's the thing, you know, a lot of people mentally can't get past. I could have earned 5,000 and I only made $1,400 or whatever it is. But it's all paper until it's actually... Could have, should have.

The profit is always once you close the position. So it's really, it happens to everybody out there and there's absolutely no shame. It's part of the game. So you have to concentrate on, hey, I still earned money with this trade. I did everything right in my analysis. That's the important. That should give you the self-confidence to do it again, actually. Yeah, I think people at the beginning think they just need to choose right with up and down.

That's hard enough, right? Even just choosing which direction is hard enough, but then knowing how to manage the risk is almost impossible. And it reminds us, I say this to people all the time, technical analysis, trading, it's more of an art than a science, right? Choosing where to put your stop loss, if you're thinking like everyone else, you're going to end up in the exact same spot where you get swept. But then if you move your stop down and things go against you, well, maybe you wish you had your higher stop loss and it didn't go down and you didn't lose more. And so- Yeah, that's the thing- Guaranteeing at this point that you're in some sort of profit when you get

it and like you said those huge trades of the year the ones that go so quickly in your direction that you don't even have to worry about this exactly there's no management it's just right nicest setup if that happens to you but like you just said in hindsight it's always easy to be smart you know and uh that's that's why I think it was so important that we kind of showed like, you know, with real money, this is how I am doing this. And I would have been equally as happy, by the way, if it would have hit the stop loss right away, we would have made a loss because risk management, in my opinion, is like at least 50% of the equation to success. But that's for another day, of course. We have more than

enough to talk about. Yeah, I've always viewed a stop loss triggering quickly as, at least mentally, I try to tell myself it's not really a loss. It's just a pursuit of a better entry. That's a very good way to put it, actually. Make it back on the, just giving me an excuse to find a better entry. So I guess let's move on then to how you're approaching today, because, Hey, you might've found the bottom.

This is breaking out. This could go, I mean, you could have had the bottom of the entire market. So do you have any other trades open that are giving you sort of, you know, some sort of exposure to if we have in fact time to bottom? Yeah, I have. I mean, like for my long-term trading i'm 95 invested i i've been continuously buying stocks uh buying crypto risk on assets since last year september uh talked about a plenty uh like and this beginning of

january i hit the mark of 95 so not a lot of liquidity left. January paid off big time for me. So I'm up 30%. I already thought like I should, you know, just close everything and go on holiday for the rest of the year off. But sell in May and sell in May and walk away. But you're just gonna sell in January and come back in January. And I don't know what rides with that. But no, of course, I am, you know, that's, that's the thing. Once you you are hooked, you're hooked. And I know myself after a week, I get bored again. And I'm going to sit back and stare at my charts and fundamental data. But for today, yeah, exactly. Exactly. So actually, you can first of all, do two things to

prepare. One thing is you should always have your account ready that if you spot a trade, you can execute it very fast. You don't want to go through all this deposit process, promo code process and so on. When you spot the trade, you got to be ready to execute when you spot the opportunity. And I know, Scott, that the viewers viewers here they have a promo code they can use for prime expertise if i'm not mistaken which i've never explained to them how to do because yeah let's let's have a quick look because i mean that's like up to 7 000 they can get in a bonus for their trading account so that gives you your nice little additional cushion for for your margin trading there and maybe let's have a really quick look

here how you activate this. So you have like two sections here, your wallets, which is like your normal wallet you might have on a mobile phone for your cryptocurrency. And then this margin trading section, if you don't see any accounts here, you have to click on open new account and select the currency. So I could open here one with US dollar coin. Not going to do this now. I have here my US dollar Tifa account. And if I enter the promo code here, which I think is this one, click on activate. It says not found.

That's not good. Wolf of all streets. I think it's just wolf of all streets. No, the. See, this is calm. Yeah, it's just wolf of all streets. No, the... See? This is comp. Yeah. We got it.

There you go. You're going to put us on the spot if it doesn't work. Not found. Yeah. That's the thing about being live, you know? Here we go. So that's one, was it? So I have my promo code activated.

I get a 7% deposit bonus, maximum $7,000. If I fund my account now, let's say I deposit $100,000 on it, transfer it. Casual $100,000. A casual $100,000. Exactly. You see I have my bonus here, $7,000 activated, which means I can now trade with 107,000. And I think for events like tonight, the Fed interest rate decision, if you choose to trade

this, it's kind of nice to have a little bit of an additional cushion on your margin trading account. That gives you a bit of more confidence because like you just said, things can, especially when Powell is later talking, become very volatile very quickly, especially if he says things that the market might not want to hear. Listen, if you've got $107,000 trading account and you're actually practicing good risk management,

depending everyone has their threshold, but you're still only talking about wanting to lose $1,000 to $2,000 on any given trade. Yeah, exactly. That's the other thing. I think one of the tragedies is that people come in and think they're going to be pro-traders and come in massively undercapitalized and they get wiped out, lose 30% or 40% on a trade because they want to make or lose a certain amount and not base it.

But you have to have an absolutely massive stack if you're going to make a ton of money. Absolutely. And yeah, I mean, I can just highlight what you just said. Don't risk like more than one or 2%. Everything else is like coming cards. You're eventually going to end up blowing up your account and you don't want to do that, of course.

It's literally inevitable. But yeah, let's's get this so thank you for showing us that um let's get into today so how are you planning for this and make the caveat nobody knows what's going to happen that's why you just got to be prepared that's that's the thing you know so i i don't think there's any point you know in in like betting on how the interest rate decision is going to be because it's pretty clear, at least for tonight, how it's going to be. You could, of course, say like, oh, I'm going to bet on those 0.5% chance that it's going to be 0.5% or 0% as a matter of fact, but it's not going to happen. So don't risk money on that. So the event itself might be actually a little bit in terms of price actions,

in terms of volatility, a bit of a, you know, a bit of a duck, like nothing really happened, a non-event. However, one scenario I would really favor, in my opinion,

and this is how I try to approach these release of important economic data is I try to make up my mind what is Powell most likely going to say tonight and how are the markets going to react to it. And if I look at the history of the last speeches now, I am pretty, pretty certain that we are going to see the central statement by him again, saying like the Fed is going to do everything that is needed to contain inflation. They are on the other side of the spectrum like they were last year. I still remember, I think it was like in May or June, we had something like inflation is transitory. So they are overreacting to the other side now as well, because they need to display power. They need to display that they are in charge of the whole situation, that their decision making is going to help the markets. So I'm expecting something like, yeah, we want to we are going to keep the interest rates higher for a longer time.

Basically what he said the past two months again. And this might actually kind of disappoint the market because the market is expecting something, you know, a little bit of hope on that there might be a slight hint that the Fed is going to stabilize interest rates or maybe even lower interest rates again in Q3 or Q4. I don't think that is going to happen today. So I might prepare myself that at least we're going to see4. I don't think that is going to happen today. So I might prepare myself that at least we're going to see somewhat, I don't want to call it a sell off, but a little bit pressure on risk on assets. So pressure on stocks, like the S&P 500 as an index, for example,

pressure, of course, also on cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin and Ethereum, shall be noted here. So what I want to do, if that scenario really becomes true, we have this trend line we have broken here in the S&P 500, which we talked a lot about last week. So what we might see is now that during the speech of Jerome Powell, that the market will kind of go down again. And should we go as much down that we are approaching this trend line, which currently sits here at around about 3,950 points, that's 120 points lower than we are. And I would get ready here to execute a buy order because it's very,

very likely that we'll bounce off of this trend line again to the upside. So that might be a point where the market finds a bottom for the day to go into the other direction again. And this is so attractive because you can place a stop loss pretty much just a little bit under this trend line. If it's broken, okay, then it's broken. Then we're going to continue probably into the bear trend again. Then we had a kind of a bull trap here. If it's not broken and it holds, then for sure we are going to continue upwards to this area here in the next days and weeks of 4,200, 4,300, 4,400. So it's kind of a continuation of the trade I executed already last week.

Now, if you're more into, let's say, trading Bitcoin or trading cryptocurrencies, what you can do, you remember last week we spoke about that the fractals here look very much alike. We actually saw Bitcoin trying to capture the 24000. Didn't really happen. We saw a large candle out there. If the market, if the stock market is going down by 100 points, for sure, very quickly, you'll see also Bitcoin approaching here this area between 20 and a half and 21 and a half thousand US dollars. And for me, this is also a good area then to set up a long swing trade again, because you can put your stop loss just shy under 20,000, but you have a good upside of maybe three, four or $5,000. So good risk reward ratio of at least 2.0, which means you only need to be successful with this kind of trade in like

43 or 44% of all the time not to lose money. So you put yourself in a position that is better than playing roulette and betting on red or white, red or black. You see, I don't play roulette. That's why I don't get all the colors. I'm sure there's some places where it's red or white. I mean, my thinking aligns with what you're saying. And so interestingly, though, it doesn't sound like you're trying to get short, even if we get that volatility, you're looking for a dip to get long on when things... Yeah, because I think still the underlying narrative we're seeing from the macro view is that I'm more bullish, that I see inflation going down by quite a margin also, especially the last three months. And if we look at it historically, that always coincided with

the bottom of the stock market. So the overall trend, in my opinion, is bullish. And I don't want to put myself against the trend. Right. Absolutely makes sense. I just think there's a lot of people trying to scalp the short on it. And the problem is, I think with trading the short term volatility is that even if you're right, you probably get stopped out because it whips up and it whips down. And you see, this is when you see those like Darth Maul candles, people love to talk about where you get the big wake up, big wake down and price ends exactly where it started. Right. And so I think you just need to be really, really careful there. Also, I mean, historically on these sort of big events, when it comes to announcements, it's strange to say, but the market is usually wrong with the first reaction.

Yeah. Sometimes you get bad news and you see a quick spike up and then everything dumps to hell. Yeah, and it's because everybody's trying to get out of their position. I mean, imagine you are, let's continue with that now. You're short in the market. And then you see something like, you know, a rate hike of a market reacting to the upside first. So everybody wants to get out. You are thinking like, my God, it's going to go up. I'm wrong.

I need to get out. And this is, again, the scenario like, you know, you are at a party. There's a fire that breaks out and everybody tries to get out of the door at the same time, resulting in nobody getting out and everybody at least getting injured or worse. So that's why I, you know, as a trader over the course of years, you kind of go away from this action, clickety click action. You know, I want to bet on the news to more of business. No, I'm not going to bet on it. I'm going to make up a scenario.

What is what might happen? And if the scenario becomes true, I know exactly where to bet on it. I'm going to make up a scenario, what might happen. And if the scenario becomes true, I know exactly where to buy and where to sell. Right. The good news is here, if you're wrong, you're not losing anything. You're just missing the trade that you're looking for, which is meaningless. And again, if the price is to the upside, then you've made your money on the 95% of your portfolio that you've already deployed as an investment. So somebody had the question earlier. Real quick, it's architect Jeff says, so it sounds like Dirk actively trades with about

5% of his portfolio. 95% is long-term investment. I'm sure that's not the exact numbers. That is not the exact number. I mean, like the amount of money I've dedicated to long-term investments is 95% invested. But that's its own portfolio. That is not concerning the whole portfolio. As a matter of fact, 70% of my investments are long-term.

Of the whole cash I'm using for investment, 30% I use for shorter-term strategies like this one now. Yeah, my split, I mean, I've always talked about. And it changes. That's the thing is Yeah, my split, I mean, I've always talked about. And it changes. That's the thing is everybody, you mentioned a portfolio strategy, but there's a different strategy for different markets. If it's fully risk on and things are going nuts to the upside, I'm going to deploy some of that 70% potentially and move it into. But I've always been a fan of 70, 15, 15, right?

15 in cash so that you can buy the dip and 15% for speculating. But that can change drastically. But it's good. I mean, I think that really is pretty much industry standard when you get a true pro trader is that they know that they need to have 70% of their money still in investments.

Yeah. Yeah, it's important. In my opinion, you know, and it sounds a little bit insane maybe, but at least I have a, for me, it's easier to see like the long-term trends. On the short-term trends, especially when it comes to day trading, it can be difficult because there are too many things that factor into the chaos. And you're very often also trading against all those AIs who are much, much better in analyzing stuff in the time that takes you to do one

mouse click. They've analyzed 20,000 different scenarios. That changes in favor of the human mind if we look at long-term perspectives over three months. The human brain is still better there than an AI is, by the way. Yeah, it is. And we've got a few interesting comments over here that I

just want to highlight because I think it'll be helpful. Like we have, I'm 100% in cash because most people were saying that Q1 would most likely be the low. And I'm not bringing this up in any way to criticize you because I think that that's a common error. But unless if you're 100% in cash, this is for everyone, that means you're effectively trading with your entire portfolio because you need to make an active decision as to when to enter back into the market. And even if things did go lower in Q1, that doesn't mean you're going to actively and accurately buy the low, which is what you're anticipating. Humans see a low come in and then they go, well, I guess it's low. It's going lower.

Right. So is there for me, there's never a time I would ever be 100 percent in cash because that's me trying to overthink and outplay the market. No matter what, I'd still be 70% in investments. Yeah, and it kind of implies also that you are trying to time the bottom, which is impossible. I know there are many people out there that say they can do that, but they cannot. I've never in my life in any asset class met somebody that can perfectly time the bottom. You make up a scenario, and like my scenario was in September, while inflation is coming down historically, that means I should go slowly into risk on assets again.

I started, for example, buying Bitcoin at $30,000 again. And, of course, it was painful seeing it going all the way down to $16,000. But I didn't deploy all of my cash, of course, long-term in it. I bought, you know. I bought $42,000 that day that it went from $ day that it went from 52 to 42 thinking I was a genius. Yeah, exactly. And so you want to slowly scale yourself in the market. Don't try to time bottoms. And like this, people saying your Q1 is going to be lower.

So maybe it is. We don't know. You know, maybe there's like a surprise around the corner that is going to crash cryptocurrencies and risk on this it could still go way down it still could weigh down we've seen that in in other accumulation phases especially in cryptocurrencies before the halving again it was the same last time and but important here i think is that you don't fomo into the market now that you don't FOMO into the market now. That you don't say, I missed the train now. I could have bought at $16,500.

So I'm going to buy all the way right now at $20,000, $23,000. That's a recipe for disaster. Start averaging in the same way that you should have before. The strategy shouldn't change just because the price is slightly different. And don't give too much on what other people are saying. That includes me, by the way. And, you know, you have to make up your own mind. Do your own homework.

Don't read too much on social media, you know, because, I mean, we are seeing that on Twitter, for example, to the extreme again now. But the markets go up. Everybody is calling like 30,000, 50,000. I saw one guy like claiming we're going to a million in Bitcoin this year. It's not going to happen. No, I don't think we're getting to that. I'm not quite sure,'re going to a million in Bitcoin this year. It's not going to happen. I'm not quite sure, but I would be very happy, of course, but probably I wouldn't see the million because I would sell before that. And so keep a clear mind, do your due diligence.

I know it's easy to say, but... You just made the best point of the whole day, though. And it's the same as not buying the bottom it can go to a million but i'm not going to be there yeah not as a trader like all the people we all are so jealous of the guys who like bought bitcoin in 2009 2010 when i really get into a deep conversation with any of them about it they all sold when it went to a thousand dollars of course because they couldn't imagine that something they bought for a dollar went to $1,000. Of course not.

If that weren't true, we would have people to the masses running around with billions of US dollars in profits now. Yeah. That's why, and that also ties into the importance of making up your mind to what is going to be your exit strategy for your trade, no matter if it's long term or short term.

And I mean, I'm pretty much a Bitcoin and Ethereum maxi, to be honest. I don't gamble so much with altcoins. But still, if we would see a scenario this year where we, I mean, let's just entertain this thought for a moment, where we would see a Bitcoin going to a million, I'm pretty sure I would be amongst those that would sell a large stash already at like 200 or 500,000. If I even would keep it that long. Selling is so much harder than buying. Yeah. That's what they don't tell you on the downside and on the upside, because it means accepting your stop loss and that you were wrong if it goes down and going up. It's just either you sell too late or you sell too early. You just have to go with the plan that you established in the beginning.

Apart from from this, I don't remember the name now who was the person that is sitting on 100% cash, I still have to congratulate you because, I mean, that is a trading decision too. And you decided to not give into the FOMO that we are seeing as well. So that's an accomplishment. That's true. It will still be. Yeah. That's absolutely true.

Do you mind if I bring up a couple more questions, Derek? Because people are asking. And so, Scott, ask the guests, what is opinion if Russia and the rest of NATO escalate the war efforts? How do you think the markets would react? Also, Derek, thank you for the kind words. I did just see your comments before. Well,

the first thing on my mind was just, I cannot say this. If that happens, we are all F point, point, point. You can say it here. We are really, really all fucked. I'm sorry to be that blunt. But if that happens, if that escalates, we have a whole of other problems.

Beyond markets. Our daily life and struggle. And, you know, then thinking about our investments, because probably we'll have to think either hopefully not dying from radiation poisoning or perishing when a nuclear bomb is dropped on you. Or struggling how to find food tomorrow or maybe you're sitting somewhere you'll be sitting somewhere in a trench with a machine gun in your hand aiming at somebody if that happens everything is going to crash and like i said it's it won't matter anymore where you invest it because everything will be gone then you're going to fight for your survival it's a world war three scenario yeah really yeah and and i mean especially for me i live in berlin

so probably i would be amongst the first people who get a nuclear bomb dropped on their head right yeah not a scenario we want to discuss here's another practical question i know you're an eth maxi so you're looking at it where would you get long eth please well the same i'm i would uh first of all um see now uh if like today or the next days we we are hitting this range of 20 and a half to 21 and a half thousand dollars in bitcoin uh instead of bitcoin in that case you could also buy Ethereum, in my opinion. I mean, to be honest, to the upside, usually Ethereum has performed better than Bitcoin in the past six, seven, eight, nine years since Ethereum is around. Do you have a specific chart for it, though, like where you would be looking at it? I don't. I usually base my analytics on Bitcoin.

But if you compare the charts now, they are pretty much the same. There's not so much difference. So, totally fine if you say like I want to buy Ethereum instead of Bitcoin. You can do that. However, I still would base at least in this bear market scenario we're still in with cryptocurrencies, I would base

my analysis always on Bitcoin because Bitcoin is going to show the direction and every altcoin out there is just going to follow, which is especially true at the moment we are in a Bitcoin season again. We are seeing Bitcoin dominance going up. Bitcoin has more influence on the markets. It's going to change again

when we're going to an altcoin season, of course. So I think if we get a drop in Bitcoin, you get a slightly larger drop in Ethereum. I mean, for me, I just would have, I guess I'll make it glaringly red. I'd say the obvious area would be sort of the top of all this accumulation. So maybe $1,350, $1,350, something like that at the top,

because that's all of this as well. And for anyone who's asking, I am law. I've kind of publicly like had drawn this circle with CryptoBurb and Big Cheds while we were on here ages ago. I bought it twelve eighty four and have just been kind of riding that. I didn't catch all this bottom. And I'm also long from like 30 bucks from my original position. Eighty actually. But yeah, I mean, for me, it would be you've got both MAs curling up here. I don't think maybe you'll get farther. but if you get a drop down to these highs,

I think that's the area that you'd probably be looking for. Which one is the red MAs? Red is 200 and blue is 50. So, you know, the 200. I mean, that could be a scenario as well. Usually the 200 days moving average is also a good, good point, you know, to either buy it.

So when we're coming down to look for long positioning again, maybe if we are seeing, I don't think we are going to see today, but in the next days, that would be something. Also then to favor Ethereum over Bitcoin, this scenario. Micro Hayes, when the dust clears from the minute traders today, do you see the price going down for a well-needed correction? Thanks. I hope so.

Honestly speaking, I really hope so. It makes a healthier move up if we get the proper correction. Exactly. That's why we are still – there are always two scenarios when a market is a bit overheated, and we are overheated. So you can see here my so-called danger zones indicator. We are still – That's gotten a lot more red than last week, actually.

It has, yeah. It has. So it's still bright red. And there are always two scenarios we can kind of come out of something like this. Either if we go sideways for a long time, that's the boring scenario,

and things will calm down again then a little bit. So that's a way of accumulating strength again. Or we see a correction like i said here to 20 and a half 21 and a half thousand uh us dollars in bitcoin that's my favorite scenario because that would kind of reset the narrative and um it would be interesting because then we would see really who puts their money where the mouth is uh so even if everybody is going to turn bearish very quickly again, or we are going to see all those big guns out there using those prices to accumulate again.

Is there a level where your base case changes? Like if we drop to a certain level, maybe this sort of bull run is over. Where's your invalidation? If we drop under 20 i think 20 000 is like the um the psychological important price here not only because it was in 2017 almost behind it it also when we went over 20 000 in the last bull run that was when things really started to kick off again in terms of bullish for the bullish cycle of Bitcoin. So if we see a close for a couple of days under 20,000,

I'm actually pretty certain we are probably going to test the lows again. Yeah. So anything else that you're looking at before I let you go, since I know you have trading to do? Anything else I may have that's that's the scenario so i'm going to focus on the sp500 tonight on bitcoin those are the two assets to watch if i see like in terms of cryptocurrency let's say from the top turn of cryptocurrencies like somebody who is like leveraging down to buy a large more margin than Bitcoin is,

I might also throw some money at this because the pullback probably is going to be as high. But I would be very careful with that. If you are doing this kind of for the first time, or maybe you've just started, make your first steps, concentrate on the assets that are causing everything to move, which for stocks is going to be the S&P 500, maybe the NASDAQ for cryptocurrencies is going to be Bitcoin.

If you have an eye on both of those, I think you are pretty good. It should be good. Yeah. And then one final question, because we have this sort of unique situation, which is we get FOMC today and get volatility, and then we get this huge round of earnings

for the next few days, which I think actually are a bigger deal right now, because I think FOMC, everybody has a certain expectation. We're used to these rate hikes, but if we get terrible, I mean, earnings could be the trigger to another either bull run or bear run to a much more. Yeah. It's going to be interesting, especially when we look at the tech stocks, Either bull run or bear run to a much greater and lasting degree.

Especially when we look at the tech stocks, and especially the ones that currently are laying off people like Google, Amazon, Apple. Of course, they are doing that for a reason, because probably they are going to fail their earnings, and they need to take action and show their shareholders that they are reacting to earnings being failed. So I wouldn't be surprised to see some, I wouldn't say nasty surprises, but some low balling in terms of that earnings are not as good as expected.

We still have this scenario of a recession looming over us. Yeah, absolutely. I don't know. Yeah. I mean, I actually, in my newsletter this morning, I was about to try to pull it up, but I just to, for people, if you don't read it, I always put the kind of key events this week.

I mean, we have FOMC rate decision and Powell Press Conference, earnings for Meta and Peloton today, Eurozone ECB rate decision, UK BOE rate decision, US factory orders, Drabis claims, earnings Thursday, Alphabet, Apple, Amazon, Qual BOE rate decision, US factory orders, Drabis claims, earnings Thursday, Alphabet, Apple, Amazon, Qualcomm,

Deutsche Bank, Santander. I don't remember a week this big. It's like everything condensed in one week. Absolutely. Yeah, absolutely. It's insane. So I guess we're going to hammer sauce as Snapchat disappointed.

I mean, I think Snapchat is just Snapchat at this point, right? Maybe we should not expect much from Snap moving forward. But guys, that's all we've got today. Go back and watch it if you want to figure out how to get that promo code. Go back and watch it if you just want to learn some things. Dirk, we're going to keep doing this because it's awesome. Awesome. I love having you.

And so I'm just going to ask you to keep a record of however you do trade this so maybe we can take a look at it in future weeks, even though we didn't do anything live today. And there's no reason, by the way, we're not just going to, like, throw in trades on a random Wednesday if there's nothing to be done, right? Yeah, no, no, that's important. You know, it's like trade less, concentrate on those trades where you think they have a good potential payoff.

Don't trade just for the clickety-click action. Absolutely. Guys, I will not be here tomorrow. We usually do our roundtable on Thursday, but I am going to be indisposed. So I will be back on Friday, and we're going to have Dirk back, of course, soon. And thank you very much, guys. Please check out PrimeXBT. Of course, it's right down there in the description.

Dirk, thank you once again. Everybody, I will see you on Friday my pleasure take care everybody thank you