The Wolf Of All Streets - If You Own Bitcoin, You’re A Bitcoiner (Sorry Maxis) W/ Udi Wertheimer

Episode Date: December 6, 2023

This stream is likely to trigger laser eyed Bitcoin Maxis. Sorry.  Udi Wertheimer and I discuss the future of Bitcoin - both as an asset and as a network. Follow Udi: https://twitter.com/udiWertheimer ►►TAP A super-powered money app - an all-in-one investment, money, and trading platform. Coming to the U.S. soon, with tons of bonuses. 👉https://referral.withtap.com/scottmelker  ►►TRADING ALPHA READY TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS? THE BEST TRADERS IN CRYPTO ARE RELYING ON THESE INDICATORS TO MAKE TRADES. USE CODE ‘2MONTHSOFF’ WHEN VISITING MY LINK.  👉 https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker  ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEK DAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/   ►► OKX Sign up for an OKX Trading Account then deposit & trade to unlock mystery box rewards of up to $10,000!  👉 https://www.okx.com/join/SCOTTMELKER ►►NGRAVE This is the coldest hardware wallet in the world and the only one that I personally use. 👉https://www.ngrave.io/?sca_ref=453131... ►►THE DAILY CLOSE BRAND NEW NEWSLETTER! INSTITUTIONAL GRADE INDICATORS AND DATA DELIVERED DIRECTLY TO YOUR INBOX, EVERY DAY AT THE DAILY CLOSE. TRADE LIKE THE BIG BOYS. 👉 https://www.thedailyclose.io/   ►►NORD VPN  GET EXCLUSIVE NORDVPN DEAL - 40% DISCOUNT! IT’S RISK-FREE WITH NORD’S 30-DAY MONEY-BACK GUARANTEE. PROTECT YOUR PRIVACY! 👉 https://nordvpn.com/WolfOfAllStreets   Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://twitter.com/scottmelker Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.io   Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe   Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c   #Bitcoin #Crypto #Trading The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

If you own Bitcoin, then you are a Bitcoiner. Not my words, but those of today's guests. Udi, who everybody here obviously knows already, but it's a sentiment that I share. I've often been canceled by the 12th level sorcerers of the official Bitcoin council for the crime of every once in a while, occasionally talking about another token or for saying that there are people in the world who might occasionally want to sell five or 10 sats to pay their bills. And we all know that those are crimes against humanity

and that you can be excommunicated from the official community of Bitcoiners for these crimes. Well, if you think that my excommunication is bad, you should see what happened to Udi. We're going to talk about it today. We're going to talk about the resurgence of ordinals and BRC20 tokens. Oh, sorry, I had to move. There were lightning bolts. When you say those words, they actually try to vaporize you from the sides of the camera. Guys, I can't wait to have this conversation. Udi and I have been long overdue. We're going to talk about why you can still be a Bitqueener even if you

defy the rules. Let's go. And said Bitcoin $45,000 going to the moon tomorrow by next last Thursday. But as you know, we like to actually have conversations with real human beings on this channel. And I've got one of my favorite real human beings. And he's wearing a wizard hat. What's up, Udi? How are you this morning? Yo, of course I'm wearing a wizard hat. Why wouldn't I?

I know. I literally when we were talking right before the show, I said, why didn't you send me a wizard hat? I would have worn one. I have a doge of admit, a sheba of admit that occasionally I'll bring out, but it just doesn't feel appropriate for the occasion. So listen, maybe because I don't want to take for granted

that our audience even understands all of this, can you just give a quick DLDR on Ordinals BRC20 here and maybe what all the controversy is about? Yeah, I mean, for most people, there isn't any controversy, right? Like there's this new, it started in February, this new way to put additional data on the Bitcoin chain, essentially. It started with a way to so-called inscribe images on the Bitcoin chain. We used it to inscribe, you know, type of wizards,

which is kind of like an NFT collection, but it's on Bitcoin and it's immutable and it's there forever. It's hosted on the chain. Some people didn't like, for some reason, that the Bitcoin chain is used for things that are not buying coffee in El Salvador, I guess. Is anybody buying coffee in El Salvador with Bitcoin? Is that happening? I think there's a few. I don't know.

It's probably a few, like a few tourists. They're like, hey, I heard you can buy things with Bitcoin here. But you know, I assume there are a handful of them. But the interesting thing that happened is that people love this idea of putting other types of data on Bitcoin. started inscribing their own collection, their own art. And another movement that kind of started is the so-called BRC20s. They're using the same kind of technique in order to do fungible tokens. So it's mostly meme coins, right? Like people just creating new meme coins and trading them. And those became incredibly popular. I would say most of the trading volume in crypto right now that isn't in Bitcoin or Ethereum appears to be in BRC20s in the last few weeks.

Now, they're meme coins. They're jokes. I don't know if they're going to stay here forever. But people definitely like the idea of doing a lot of the stuff that they were doing on you know ethereum and other platforms and doing it on bitcoin uh the interesting thing i think is that you know back in february when this started a lot of people said this is you know it's a it's a joke this isn't gonna last this is some stupid fad and people are gonna stop doing it it's a scam it's a griffift. And what we're seeing a year later is that the trend just keeps growing and more and more people are doing this. So the people who don't like it are

upset and they're increasingly upset because there are more and more new Bitcoin users who are coming into Bitcoin through that kind of sort of activity. Shouldn't they embrace that though? I mean, isn't more bitcoiners a good thing for everybody i mean is this and do you think that the people who are angry about it are a vocal minority or do you think that that's a real movement and problematic yeah so from what i've seen uh people are overwhelmingly either in favor or neutral um just because you know it doesn't hurt anyone right like there's no one who's actually the look since a lot of people are using the bitcoin chain

the fees have gone up a lot still the fees that kind of that kind of hurts yeah yeah yeah so the fees are up like 300x what they were were when the started. That's a pretty big increase. And I guess some people are upset about that. But what I would try to remind them is that we've always known that this was going to happen with Bitcoin. Bitcoin intentionally has a limit of four megabytes per block. The limit was put there in place intentionally. So so that, you know, people can't inflate the blockchain with as many, you know, as much as much data as they want. And that allows more people to run Bitcoin in a decentralized way, because it doesn't grow too much, it only grows four megabytes every 10

minutes. So we always knew that eventually, as Bitcoin adoption adoption grows that space is going to be you know kind of limited the reason that the community thought this was a good thing was because that means miners are going to receive higher fees that helps sustain the bitcoin network right so i think a lot of people in crypto have understood this concept in the last two years that increased revenue for miners mean that the network is more secure. And especially with Bitcoin, since we're going into the halving in just a few months and the miner revenue is going to be cut in half, the fact that they're going to get paid by miner fees instead is actually very, very positive for mining, for Bitcoin security. Because that means they can continue to spend the same amount on, you know, energy, mining machines and so on,

and continue to secure the network to the same level. They wouldn't have to cut down on security just because the reward goes down. I mean, and there's always been this long standing theoretical question of what happens when all the Bitcoin are mined, how will the miners continue to secure the network? We've seen in the last year times when literally these fees are higher. Miners make more money on these transaction fees than they do on actual mining, right? So doesn't that answer that question in a positive way? So to me, I think it's obvious that it is. And I think for most people who think about this deeply, it's obvious that it is. I would say that the people who are unhappy about this,

they're mostly unhappy for political reasons. I think there was this movement, you know, I call this laser eye maximalism that is mostly around, you know, getting political support and getting clicks and likes on Twitter for saying extreme things about Bitcoin. It doesn't have anything to do with Bitcoin itself and Bitcoin's success. It's people talking about how real Bitcoiners only eat meat. And, you know, it doesn't have anything to do with Bitcoin, but it's great for podcast sponsorships and stuff. So these people, I think, feel like they're kind of losing their grip on the narrative. And if more and more people get into Bitcoin for the so-called wrong reasons, which is they like art, they're creative, they want to, you know, create cool stuff.

Then we have more and more bit corners that don't go through like the funnel of the doomer podcaster cult and they are very scared of that because that means they lose the cultural control that they've had for many years and you talked before about how you were excommunicated of course i was intentionally excommunicated too you kind of kicked yourself out, but hey. Yeah, yeah. I definitely did that very intentionally. Because look, what I realized, I've been a Bitcoin maximalist,

or I would say I've been a cult member for many, many years. I remember. And I think people who've been around remember it. I would say I've been unbearable, unbearably cultish. And I thought, you know know i had my reasons i thought i thought it was the right approach but i think at some at some stage i was like well you know what we have to look at the data and we have to look at the reality and things did not happen the way we thought they would and it turns out people love nfts too it turns turns out NFTs onboarded a ton of people to Ethereum.

So shouldn't Bitcoin enjoy that kind of level of adoption too? I think it should. And I think it can. And I think what we saw in the last year is that it actually happened. And as I started saying those things, I had no doubt that I would become excommunicated, but my calculation was that it was going to be worth it. And, you know, I think, I think, I think it ended up proving itself as a good idea, but the,

the, the, that cold that I know very well, because I was part of it cannot accept that there's going to be a new type of Bitcoiner who's not subscribing to the beliefs of the cult. The really interesting thing, look, I've been in Bitcoin for 10 years. I know a ton of Bitcoiners, and I know a lot of Bitcoiners who've been in Bitcoin for a long time. And maybe 2% of them agree with the ideas that you see on the Twitter cult. So it is a loud minority. It's a very loud, very tiny minority, yeah. Yeah, I think I agree with that. I've long made the argument that meme coins, Doge specifically, I would say in the last cycle,

and NFTs when they reached full Saturday Night Live mainstream adoption, probably even if only 1% to 5% of those people eventually made their way to Bitcoin in terms of sheer numbers, probably brought in more Bitcoiners than most of us have preaching about how important it is and why it matters. Uh, like the top of the funnel is actually much easier if you bring people in through things that are fun or through profit that they can make. I know that's not a popular opinion. And frankly, I think even you would agree that if there was a world where we could go on podcasts

and talk about global economic meltdowns and Bitcoin as a hedge against the insanity, and that would actually bring tons of people in, we would prefer that. But if they want to come in through dog tokens, then at least they get here. Exactly. Exactly. And everyone I know, every single person I know, and I know so many Bitcoiners, man, every Bitcoiner I know, no matter what year it was that they joined this movement, it was always out of this speculative expectation of profit. Always. 100% of the times. What happens sometimes is that after getting into Bitcoin for that reason,

they learn more, they understand more about what it is. And then they're like, hey, actually, there's actually like a big mission here too. And that's great. But in order to get to that stage, they have to want to join first. And it's always for speculative reasons. I joined for speculative reasons 10 years ago. And every single person I know who joined after- Of course, I came in as a trader and dozed in like 2016, 17. Those massive cycles is what made me fall in love. And then the market crashed. I said, why the fuck am I here?

And I had to like convince myself. Frankly, it's honest. And then I really fell down the rabbit hole. But like you're telling my story. And I know that means you're telling the story of all these other people. Let's talk about some of the data here, because it's pretty astounding. We saw sort of this death, quote unquote, of ordinals, and they all celebrated. And now it's up massively again. Bitcoin transaction fees rival Ethereum amid ordinals resurgence class node.

I read yesterday as well that right now, NFTs being minted on Ethereum and Bitcoin are one to one. There's as many NFTs and the trend, obviously, is that it will pass it, that it's actually more popular right now to mint NFTs or ordinals than it is to mint them on the Ethereum chain. It's pretty astounding right now how popular these have become. Again, we mentioned sort of, I want to just go ahead and throw this up here as well. This is already just a chart of this token that has gone absolutely bananas.

This is one of those BRC20 meme tokens that was 11 bucks. I don't know. This is literally a four hour chart. I didn't even look. This was $12 two weeks ago. It was $66 two days ago. And this is like not even people who care that it's brc20 or on

bitcoin they're just trading something because it's going up and down they probably don't even know that it's representative of ordinals even though it's a meme token right so this is extremely popular right now this is not like a fad at the moment i mean so okay look it is a meme coin and meme coins do tend to be fat like i want to i do want to like i'm not saying the token is bad i'm saying the trend in general just to be clear so yeah yeah yeah i think the trend you just cannot ignore it like so many people are all over the chain just inscribing new stuff uh all types of files, all types of protocols. And it's kind of I mean, it's it's it's in that easy money stage that you you had anything in the past that basically anything that anyone throws kind of tends to stick,

because we're just in this in this position right now where everyone who's in crypto is like, hey, should I look into Bitcoin? Should I look into BFC20s? So there's more and more crypto people getting into Bitcoin every day. So right now it's like, it's kind of hot. And of course, you know, if we're being realistic, that isn't going to continue forever. No, it hasn't continued forever on any chain.

Exactly. This is purely the speculative side that you described. Yeah, yeah, yeah. No, it hasn't continued forever on any chain. Exactly. This is purely the speculative side that you described. Yeah, yeah, yeah. But I think though that the important part, if we zoom out, like if we look at just the last two weeks, I could see why people would say, oh, this is a fad. But if you zoom out, this started in February, we went from nothing, from nobody's using Bitcoin for basically anything, right?

There's no on-chain activity. We went from that into the chain being like absolutely full. Fees have gone up 300x. And it happened, you know, consistently over this period. I have no doubt. This isn't like a flash in the pan. That's what I told people in February. This isn't a flash in the pan.

This is going to continue to grow. I think in in a year from now we'll have another conversation we'll look back and we'll be like wow remember how small things were in uh in uh last year in december it's just it's just um i think people really want like bitcoin has this um almost mystical thing to it because I think a lot of people in crypto you know obviously heard the name but never had a reason to use it right in the last two three years a lot of people got into crypto never had a reason to use Bitcoin they got Eve they got manamask they started playing around with Define nfts and they just never had any Bitcoin whatsoever and now that they have a reason to play with it i think people are like hey this is cool this is new this is fresh um so and that that i think is going to continue because what happened if you look if you look at the ethereum ecosystem

it is so you know developed and rich uh with with things that you can do and bitcoin is like in step one of that process. There's like an entire ecosystem that can still be built. If we extrapolate and assume that the Bitcoin ecosystem will grow to be even 10% as big as Ethereum is, then we're talking about a lot of growth. And yeah, so I think we're going to see a lot of i literally i don't mean interrupt and i know i'm making faces over here but i i literally just realized you're wearing ftx glasses yeah so that's my i mean i need something bad this is like it's embarrassing over here your props

your prop game is uh, I have to say. But I do want to say that there's some big news that came out about ordinals that's all over the crypto media today. I'm sure you saw this and I saw people commenting on it. Bitcoin ordinals could be stopped if blockchain bug is patched, claims Dev. A Bitcoin core developer claimed Bitcoin ordinals exploit a vulnerability, allowing inscribers to bypass data size limits, which could soon be fixed. So they're saying that they can unilaterally kill you, which seems weird because last I checked, the Genesis block of Bitcoin had an inscription on it. Satoshi himself, you know, the chancellor, we all remember him, right? Yeah, chancellor on the brink.

Can you be stopped by fixing a bug? So, you know, what we're seeing here is a quote by a single deranged man. His name is Luke. Luke has been, you know, a sporadic contributor to Bitcoin open source projects over the years. I wouldn't say anywhere near the most prolific, but every once in a while he makes a small contribution. Mostly he tweets his moral stance about things. For example, he said that he thinks masturb masturbation is a crime, um, that, that is punishable by death.

Um, he said that he thinks that, uh, he won, he said he wants to eat, uh, dogs and cats. Uh, he was serious. He said, you know, he said that, um, he said a lot of things over the years. And this is one of the things that he says. He's been very upset about Ornald since February. And he's been writing a lot of code to fix the bug since February. He's been encouraging people to run it with him. It's been almost 10 months of seething and coping from Luke about Ornals. And I want to be very clear,

in 10 months, he completely failed to stop Ornals. Not only did he not stop them, they grew astronomically. So once again, he's saying that he can stop it, that it's a bug, that he can fix it. He can't. The important point is that's pretty clear now like to to dig in i guess more seriously on this i can understand i guess why people are mad at brc20s and nfts because they don't like meme coins and they don't like art they don't like nfts in general but conceptually bitcoin as the most secure base layer for all of the activity happening on other chains should theoretically be very popular. But we've seen, and also this should push to the major proliferation of layer twos because of the delays in the mempool and the transactions. So we've seen stacks going crazy, right? I don't personally think Lightning will ever scale to handle this, but hey, that's me. But this should

spur the more serious development that these people like just because they're seeing what the possibilities are, right? Yeah, I don't think so, sadly. I think that the people who call themselves Bitcoin core developers, and by the way, it's important to note, unlike Ethereum, you know, in Ethereum, there's a foundation that hires developers and gives them the title Ethereum core developer. Bitcoin does not have that. And Bitcoin, a person is a Bitcoin core developer if he calls himself, if he identifies as one. And that's the situation with Luke.

Luke identifies as a Bitcoin core developer. But in practice, there's no meaning to that title. There's absolutely nothing he can do um so i and and sadly the the people who do identify as bitcoin core developers um they don't seem to be interested in in growing uh the adoption and the chain they're actually most of them that i had the pleasure of talking to seem to be concerned about increased adoption because they're like, well, you know, either Bitcoin is not ready for it or it will pose some technical challenges. So they actually prefer to reduce Bitcoin adoption.

Not all of them. It's a very amorphic group, but many of them. So I actually don't think so. I don't think that for that specific group, that's going to change a lot. But what we're seeing that I think is very interesting is over this last year because uh of the the growing interest in in ordinals we're seeing a lot of new bitcoin developers um and when i'm saying a lot i mean a lot like i have my calendar is full with calls every day with new developers who are looking for like help and advice and tips

honestly honestly i can't help them that much because they're really bright and i'm kind of dumb i'm wearing wizard costumes and fcx glasses to you know shit posts and whatever so there are a lot of like skilled talented new young fresh developers who are joining the ecosystem and i'm a lot more bullish on them than i am on the kind of old guard that is just sitting around complaining yeah i know we got like five minutes left there's a good question here can you comment on how these fees will affect utxos for people who don't know those are basically unspent transactions um and then i guess like as a side to that bitcoin's supposed to be for international remittances and a cheap and fast way

to send money to your friends in small amounts and that's not a thing anymore right well i mean i don't know what bitcoin is supposed to be um i think bitcoin is a permissionless system and we keep figuring out what it's for as we move along. People who want to use Bitcoin to make remittances still can't. There's nothing stopping them. They would need to pay the fee in order to compete with people who are using Bitcoin for other things. But that has always been the case. And if that use case is as useful as people claim, then they should be happy paying the fees.

If not, then maybe it's not a good use case. But, you know, I can't really help with that. With the UTXO question, I'm not sure exactly what he meant. Maybe he meant like the size of the UTXO set, so how many UTXOs exist. I don't think it necessarily has to be uh bigger or grow substantially um people continue to create utxos and spend them i i'm not necessarily sure it'll just affect that so how does if okay let's say that ordinals become 2x 5x 10x more popular than they are now which is the

trend seemingly how does Bitcoin scale to accommodate that or what can be built on a layer two or something to scale it? Does it become problematic at any certain size? Yeah. I think interestingly, BRC20s are kind of almost intentionally or I would say egregiously inefficient. And so there's a lot of improvements that can be made there. And I think over time, especially if this use case continues to grow, I think those things would happen. So we will see an efficiency increase on, let's say, one order of magnitude, like 10x,

is something that I think would be pretty easy to do. Beyond that, yeah, i think that's really the the the most interesting part because what happened before no one was no one was really using on-chain bitcoin for almost anything and now that people are we can start talking seriously about scaling solutions and try to actively look for real solutions whereas in the past people were talking about lightning, which is, it's a hypothetical solution to a hypothetical problem, right?

Because we didn't have the problem. And therefore the solution was barely moving along. I think now that there's an actual real economical, commercial need to find the solution, I think you're going to see a lot of people trying to find a solution. I think we will. So that's really just great news. It's pretty interesting to see. It's almost like a cycle behind where everything else was. In the last cycle, all we talked about was this need for

block space and cheaper, faster. I'm talking about outside of Bitcoin, by the way, in Ethereum, layer two solutions, all of these things. Now you could argue that coming into this cycle with Solana and FireDancer and all of these things, whether you agree with them or not, now it's like we have all this block space and speed and nothing's gone viral enough to actually use it. So Bitcoin's almost like a cycle behind having the same problems that everyone else was having scaling three or four years ago. Yeah, I would agree with that. In one hand, for me as a long-time Bitcoin, it's a little sad that we end up being behind. But also, I think the good news is that we're catching up very quickly. Finally, after many years that there wasn't much progress. So I think, for one thing, it's a great opportunity for people who kind of are experienced with the cycle in other ecosystems, because you get to play it fresh on Bitcoin, which is, I think, a really nice opportunity. But also, I think it's moving so fast that for the first time in many

years, I feel like we can actually catch up. So that's really awesome. Yeah, luckily, I think we got a roadmap on Bitcoin from all of the mistakes of other chains, actually. I think that this was a completely unpredictable to me way for Bitcoin to become more popular and actually become the base layer of meaningful things in the future and to actually compete, which I didn't see coming at all. I thought Bitcoin would remain store of value, digital gold, and there'd be all this innovation. But once you guys did this, people said, wait, we can do DeFi, maybe Metaverse, NFT, all the shit that they've been building on chains that people think are less secure, you can now do on Bitcoin once it scales. I think that's pretty incredible. I know

we're up against time, man. Where can everybody follow you, check you out? What island are we going to live on when they kick us all the way off? I don't recommend following me. Don't do that. You can go follow Tepper Wizards on Twitter. We're trying to stay in the front of the ordinal's sins so you can find us there I seem to have lost internet there for a second alright man thank you so much I appreciate it it's really fun watching

the comments when we have you on by the way I bet you're not the only one trust me I go on other people's show and it's the same kind of comments just about me you know but uh we uh bitcoin shit coiners gotta stick together i guess thank you everyone for the for the love in the comments it is that there is a lot of love as well man you know yeah we know how it is uh and then the best part that you won't even see is that uh we got some bsv maxis come in and say that. Oh, final question before we go is Craig Wright,

Satoshi Nakamoto. Poor guy. I don't know. He's like, I don't feel bad for him. Well, I mean, I think poor guy in the sense that I think he was,

he was born with some sort of an efficiency and it's, it's unfortunate. It wasn't, it wasn't treated all this time. But you know, I guess it happened. Oh, yeah. I don't think he's guys.

Thank you, man. Speak to you soon. Bye bye. Wow. Very entertaining. Yeah, I would love to see Bitcoin become a meaningful base layer for things being built in the future. So I think that any innovation is good innovation because I believe that the market will sort it out. And I can tell you that clearly the market, regardless of people's loud voices, the market likes it because we can see exactly what is going to happen there.

You guys are so mad. I'm going to go ahead and bring on Chris. We're going to talk about the market. $45,000 Bitcoin while I was sleeping. Who could have ever thought it was going to go up? Nobody. See, I wonder. Nobody could have seen that coming. Maybe. Yeah. I mean, anybody who's been following me or me here with your show here and everything, everything's just continued to happen. Again. The only thing different that's happened this whole year, um, that I've outlined since that actually since the, uh, the June, 2022 low was, um, just, we stayed longer than we stayed sideways for seven months. You know, we had two pullbacks. Um, other than that, I mean, you know, we're hitting the same areas. We're looking at the same things. We're getting the same movements, you know, um, we got the breakout after that

seven month, uh, sideways move there. And, you know, everybody's looking breakout after that seven month sideways move there. And, you know, everybody's looking for the pullback. And, you know, you and I kept talking about on here, man, you know, it's sometimes, especially Bitcoin, the early stage of bull market, it gets in this area of reaccumulation as it's just kind of rising there. And then it pops out higher and goes. And so who would have thought, you know, a year ago I said, uh, you know, we'd be looking, I mean, we, we said just previous cycles, usually at least 61, eight, uh, the 61, 8%, uh, 61.8% retracement of that whole bear market low before happening. Um, that's coming up there. I think that's right around 48 and a half thousand or so.

Um, and so, you know, a year ago we were talking about this, we're looking at upper forties early, you know, lower fifties. Um, and so it's, it's, it's it's actually here you can show it i don't know yeah it would be a lot easier if i just pulled up your chart since you've got it right there yeah you know again uh same chart i've been updating since uh again since back over here in that june uh 2022 low where i said uh that was going to be likely the start of accumulation. And then as we got to this area over here, we were noticing we were getting lower highs and lower lows. And we said we could get a spring or even terminal shakeout here, which is what this is. People who are new to Wyckoff

argued the hell out of me. I'm back here. Call me some really funny names. Tell me how this was not the selling climax, but it was. Selling climax was was over here they're saying that wasn't they said it was over here but you know terminal shakeout moved back up rallied back out and then just like i said just that second pullback is the only thing um we weren't kind of looking for but other than that everything else here everybody wanted to pull back instead we got the reaccumulation on the rise here we got this nice breakout we're about to hit the top of the channel i I think we've still got higher to go. If I'm zooming in, the larger timeframes, they're overbought. But as you know, that doesn't mean it necessarily has to drop right then.

It just means that the trend is strong, that this upward trend is strong. And so it can stay overbought for periods of time. Stoke RSI here, RSI over here, as you see. You know, again, over here, and we're just now getting back up here. This is the daily. And so, yeah, I think, you know, minimally, we'll hit this channel resistance. But, you know, the other thing I've been talking about, again, this aggressive move sideways between the PIV and the R1. And we didn't even come back and test the pivot. We just rallied on up through. And when we do this, we usually hit at least the R4, usually the R5.

So again, that R5 pivot gets us up there, lower 49,000s up there. I'm digging through while you're talking. I've been digging through my old sort of halving chart and looking at that 61.8. What's interesting is that you do get the 61.8 but then usually you go way back down and make a higher low but in the last cycle that 61.8 retracement was that move up from 3 000 to 14 000 yeah and then covid we went down back below 4 000 but but that was just one time further but right and that was further back in the cycle right like we're much closer to the having now to get a retrace because that would be the equivalent basically

of going from here back to 20 or something like that and then all the way uh to the moon which would be a very aggressive move but yeah so we did i mean i'm looking at 61.8 but and and the other the other difference if you really want to look it as far as structure goes in the market, is again, we had that six, seven months of sideways here, whereas leading up into the COVID pullback there and the whole BitMEX liquidation engine, all that nonsense, it was a much more straight-up rally kind of thing and then kind of downward sideways. We're going upward sideways.

We're getting these sideways movements on the way up. St so, you know, structurally, you're going to get a different response, um, from price action. So, uh, you know, I kind of look at that and, um, you know, some people are saying, well, we haven't had a real pullback yet. Sure. We did, you know, my black, uh, number two there, uh, with the last point of support, um, down there, right in this area. I mean, that right there was a pretty good pullback, but then we had this, and this is, this gives you the same net effect of a strong pullback because it's just sideways. It's reaccumulation over an extended period of time. So yeah, I mean, again, you know, I can't, you know, there are no guarantees. I can't say, oh, it's definitely going here. It's going to pull back, but you know, we've got our targets based on previous cycles.

We've got our targets based here on just some things that I know about trading pivots, targets based on count, stuff like that. So until we're actually getting some more significant pullback on the lower time frame, I think, you know, you just continue to employ proper risk management and ride this until it's done. Yeah. Okay. management and and ride this until it's done yeah okay so if we're looking at that kind of 48 to 50 area clearly as that 61.8 to 65 percent ish right that's sort of the golden pocket I'm literally

looking here's the last cycle for those just since I was talking about it you had the high around 20 came down to literally 3 000 and I I draw the 65 it's not a fib but that area between the 61.8 and 65 is considered the golden pocket. And I mean, it literally like hit that 65 right there before heading right back down. So I guess the question then naturally becomes, is there a retrace coming? When? How deep? I know you can't tell the future, but like if we go to 50 here and I mean, we're not

like I was on Paul Barron network yesterday and he was like, what do you think of the super cycle? And I was like, don't do don't even say that word. I don't want to hear about it. I don't want to hear about this time is different and how nothing can go down anymore. Right. Like there's going to be 30 or 40 percent retracements here. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, it's just, you know, I know everybody wants it. Everybody's excited about Bitcoin and, you know, for good reason. You know, you can buy in and a year later be up 180%, you know, and then just watch it, you know, multiply X times over the next two years. There's very little that actually does that. But the reality is it's just price action.

It's just a market. And so nothing goes straight, you know, in a straight line. Everything pulls back at some point. You just have to figure it out. So for me, it kind of becomes, kind of becomes okay well is the you know i've got the two different counts again i've got the one two one two and black which gives us this wave circle three target up here at around 51 950 or is this all like some sort of one here and then two is a flat in this red count um which would give us, let me see. I think it's pretty close to that area. Well, no, it's a little bit higher up here.

It's 76, 120. So I'm interested in seeing what happens up here. Do we start getting that major pull? If we do, okay, then we come on down here. We don't revisit 30. I don't believe we revisit that again. I think we get down here. As I've been talking about before we broke out, you know, I said, if we're breaking this mid-30s area, the likelihood is we rally up in the upper 40s, lower 50s, then we pull back at most to the mid-30s.

And so we've got the support here now to do that. I'm just laughing because, like, we were at 38 a week ago or something. I don't know the exact date. And I'm thinking how excitable people were about 38 on the way up. But if we're there again in a week or two, how depressed they'll be. Yeah. Yeah, exactly. And you know, it's human emotion, right? It's again, it's what makes us so great. That's what makes being human great. It's what makes trading suck. You know, trading, I always say trading simple. It's not easy. It's what makes being human great. It's what makes trading suck. You know, trading, I always say trading simple. It's not easy.

It's simple because it really is, you know, measured movements and, you know, just human beings, you know, reacting and they because that's predictable, but forecastable. But it's not easy because you have to. It's not that you're fighting with everybody else. I think you're fighting with yourself, your own emotions. We all remember that first time straightening out until you finally get through it. But even then you still have emotions. You still have to deal with, you still have to keep them in check. It's hard not to get FOMO on something that's, you know, blasting up and has a history of doing so. And the newer you are to trading

and not used to really managing those emotions, the more difficult it can be. So yeah, it can be a real emotional rollercoaster being in the market, especially this one. I see a bunch of people asking about ETH. I think you have that tab up next. I do, yeah. By the way, can I say something about ETH real quick? Go right for it, man. I don't know if you've seen this, but obviously I like to look at ETH BTC at this point because not that I'm going to trade it out of Bitcoin, but I think that's where the signal is. I've said this over and over again. We hit oversold for the fourth time ever on weekly

RSI. Those have all been obviously massive bottoms because that's what we get. Right now though, man, we're looking like if this continues, we're going to get bullish divergence on weekly oversold RSI here because as long as we close kind of below this 0.052 uh on the end of the week and rsi would need still a major push down i think that dude and and to be clear guys weekly rsi like bulldivs can take literally weeks to even start to play out but i think this is giving us all the signals that within the next few weeks or months that we're just going to see a major outperformance here maybe it's my own bias but man well i figure'd pull it up too here since I have it there. I figured people might want to know about it.

And, you know, this was, again, this was that target area I was looking at. We'll zoom out here to the bigger account in a minute here. But, you know, it looks like 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 up here. It looks like ABCWX and then ABCY. We've got the S1 pivot on the daily sitting right here, just slightly lower, almost around the EQ of this demand structure here in purple. And we're just about to hit oversold here on the daily RSI, daily stoke RSI is almost bottomed out and oversold. We've got volume kicking up all in this area here right now. So I mean, there's a lot of signals

here going, you know, you want to watch this area because if we can get a rally off here there's a good chance that this is done and so you know breaking out above which one's the higher one here let's see one two five oh wait one two okay so breaking out above this swing high right here at zero five six one two five oh eight on the bitstamp chart that's going to say okay wave three's in progress and so if it's off here we've you know that's going to get you up here around 0.06509 and at that point we should be done let me zoom out here that's off to the races on the larger time frame yeah yeah i mean this is this is that larger count it's the idea that we're you

know way four and then this is one two of the way five going up uh but this one this larger count. It's the idea that we're, you know, wave four, and then this is one, two of the wave five going up. But this larger one, two here, which may be completed that previous swing low, that wave three is up there, 0.12888. So a lot of potential, but here's the thing. If it does break down, what we'll look at is okay. This is probably a flat here, and we've got wave four down here around the 50% at 0.0435

basically at the 50% retracement. So I mean, if it does that, that's where I'm looking. And then I would expect that reversal, but man, oh man, you know, a lot of possibility, I think here on the day that we just need to see it, grab a bid, catch a bid here right around this area and kind of rally itself up. And so, you know, that would make sense, especially if Bitcoin is getting more toward the top end of this rally. Finally, you know, take some steam off that jump into Ethereum. Right. Our buddy Fibo Swanee just said ETHPTC just hit my buy targets while I'm bear zone. We shall see.

So I'm glad uh three of us that are somewhat aligning here i mean i still want to see the uh rsi elbow up there and try to give me some confirmation but man it's really hard for me not to just really love eth here it's just such a classic yeah signals happening exactly if not right now just really close really soon i think you got to be watching it so what do you got next uh but again ethereum here um nothing's changed here basically got a one two one two uh we've got uh this one two three of three target up there at 46 75 uh locally it looks like we've got a target of maybe uh let's see 24 85 or a secondary target of 26,

63 50. Um, and that'll get us, you know, this one, two, three, four, this five off, um, off this low here. So we'll get a one and we'll get a pullback then, and then kind of figure out, but I mean, if you're looking longer term, again, Ethereum is finally breaking out here. Um, you know, we had, uh, one test, two tests here and three tests right here and then pop um and so just looking for it to carry on higher there um if we do you know get toward these upper targets here we'll just pull back right around you know again this previous resistance as support area here uh 2,000 2,100 kind of area maybe uh and then we look forward to 25 yeah yeah that's that's what i think all right what else you got i see some other uh tabs real quick here dxy just keeping everybody in here

uh it looks like we are complete with that too uh looks like we're heading down for three uh locally here we've got an a a b and we're hitting a c right at the daily pivot so we should expect generally a rejection here drop on down um you know that's just going to continue down and we should drop below 100 eventually and continue lower on there. So if you're worried about the, you know, the DXY kind of causing you pain, I don't think so. I think we are top tier and continuing to break down for, you know, foreseeable future anyway.

Hooray for my TLT trade. Right. Exactly. Clay was an interesting one I saw here. I've talked about it a few times. I don't know if I've talked about it here, but if we can get this breakout here, which we should above this, what is this here?

2289, 0.2289. That should give us a minimum expected target of 2623, secondary target there of 2850. And then we'd pull back toward this still toward this 19 cent area uh and then that's where you'd want to be looking to you know looking for a reversal uh to grab the next long leg up so got a little bit further up and then a pull back and then continuing up there ah doge got doge. It's going. It is going. Doge has done the breakout, as you can see here, out of the range.

It just broke out above wave B here. So this one, two has a three up here at 35.5 cents. Locally, we got one, two. That three has 17.632 cents. And then even more locally here, we've got a one, two with our three right there at around a 0.14813. So 14.8 cents. So again,

you're working on where the oven made. Anytime I let you talk about those, well, we hit the three, you know, and then we got that larger three and then we've got the even larger three up here. So I think,

I think Doge is looking good. I think it wants to take off right here should get really fun um and then of course breaking out there um and so yeah you know if you like doge 15 cents i see 15 cents man it's since they ruined the cycle the doge cycle you know man a lot like i i know that elon musk i guess helped a lot of people get rich on doge but damn it he broke it man we have the most perfect consistent trade in history and he just broke it yeah yeah yeah and i guess we're gonna talk about doge you might as well talk about shib right this is technically probably a shiba inu so yeah we should do that yeah it looks like we had a

spring down here and then we've got a test of that spring and um the volume i asked you about shib a couple weeks ago remember do what i asked you about shib a couple weeks ago yeah yeah that's right that's right you did you did yeah i think it looks good uh we got a we got a low volume spring over here and we've even got to test it another pullback at even lesser volume that's what you want to see there's less selling on the chance to pull back even less selling than what you had we're going up um i think we've got like a one two one two right here so this interior wave three target at 1407 uh this larger three target up there 2185 oh wow so pretty good movement from where we're at right now um but yeah i think i think we kind of do that we head up there at 2185. Oh wow. So pretty good movement from where we're at right now.

But yeah, I think, I think we kind of do that and we head up on there and we keep on going. Yeah. I have my incorrectly drawn range differently. I went to the highs obviously, but when we talked,

my premise was that it was once again, sort of this deviation here was flipping. So we were at 700, obviously now at about a thousand, but the target being just sort of that EQ where it had tapped here. I like the higher targets because I think if you break 1134, you're obviously going to these highs. Yeah.

But his range, by the way, is technically correct from a Wyckoff perspective. Yeah, mine's Wyckoff. Right, right, right. I mean, it's not that their range is incorrect. It's just mine. No, I just want to say I'm not using Wyckoff. It's just I'm pulling the highs and the lows of the move and calling it a day right so right right but this is all accumulation here started back here at the selling climax on june of uh 22 you know again if you're

in the markets june of 22 was basically the low that's where it hit its low uh bitcoin just had the terminal shakeout but most all coins also had that low their same area um and then of course we got over here in june of 23 we had this uh again low volume spring came out another pullback right here and now we look ready to go so this has been a you know a long bit a year plus of accumulation right here so when we break out it should be a good move um and you know and continuing up through there we did break through this descending resistance as well just recently uh we've got three you know one two three right there large candle spread large spike of volume that's what we look for um stoke rsi was uh neutral hit uh cross bullishly at that area uh i mean so it's a great setup of stuff happening there um you know and we've

clearly run up through the r2 pivot so again would expect a run up through them which gets us at that three so you know however you're looking at it the different ways um that i look at it they all kind of align there and say it looks like it's good for overall you know higher runs here um let me see here i don't know let me see i've got oh this xcc i thought was interesting uh popping out to the weekly here uh we've got one two three four five up we've got three back so i mean based off that we've got a three up here at uh 95 80 so you know right now we're at 35 14 excuse me so it almost gives us what uh 200 just to get to that wave three minimum expected target um you know again if we're just looking at the channel here uh impulsive breakout above

the channel eq should give you a target of the channel resistance uh you know once again just different ways of looking at it locally here we've got a nice you know breakout retest of the pivot breakout the r2 again should run through our five pretty easily, which gets us to the swing high. So XCC is, is looking like it's pretty good here. There's going to be pullbacks along the way. You guys, you know, when I talk about these larger timeframes, don't jump in with this, with a stop loss, like five, you know, you know,

half a percent away or something, you know, and you're looking for some target that's a hundred percent that's how you get yourself stopped out guys then you go oh stop losses don't work and you know whatever they do you just have to do them i was right i shouldn't have used a stop loss yeah exactly stop loss i would have been totally fine totally yeah you know who else says that right carolyn ellison there you you go. The best. She's the best advertisement in history for stop losses. I guess you only do stop losses when you're trading with someone else's money. Yeah, but look what that gets you.

Jail. So, yeah, I mean, I think that pretty much does it there. It's kind of the more interesting charts right now. Awesome, man. I appreciate it guys. Everybody follow TX West capital. Also, uh, Chris has been coming on spaces a lot, which has been great. So obviously you guys, when you know, we do that at 10, 15 AM Eastern standard time, about 20 minutes, he's, he's become a very common, common facer, which I love. Uh, people are making fun of us. Stop losses over here in the comment. Very funny. Uh, all right, guys, that's all we got for you today. I'll be back tomorrow.

I've got Deezy, who hosts Around the Blockchain. He's going to come on. They've had me on Around the Blockchain a bunch of times, so I'm going to have him on. Reciprocation should be a lot of fun. Talk the news and what's going on in the markets. That's basically all I got. Chris, anything else you need to share before I let him go?

No, man. Other than, hey, we just opened up a free section to our site at members.texaswestcapital.com. We're trying to feel it all out and get it there, but I'm going to share a lot of free information on there even more than what I do on social media. So people want to join that and check us out, they can do so. We've got a lot of great people over there. He said free. He said free, guys. I said free, yeah. Yeah. Do it. Check it out. All right, everybody. Thank you. See you tomorrow said free. He said free, guys. I said free, yeah. Yeah. Do it.

Check it out. All right, everybody. Thank you. See you tomorrow. Bye, Chris. Thanks, guys. Appreciate it, man. Let's go.