The Wolf Of All Streets - Is Bitcoin About To Skyrocket? The Parabolic Move Everyone Is Waiting For!

Episode Date: December 12, 2024

Join me and Alex Miller, Founder of Hiro, as we dive into the hottest topics in crypto: Why are billionaires urging investments in Bitcoin? Why are companies stacking Bitcoin on their balance sheets? And what does it all mean for Bitcoin's price trajectory? Is the next parabolic move just around the corner?  Alex Miller: https://x.com/alexlmiller In the second part of the show, Dan from The Chart Guys will share his market analysis and some trades.  The Chart Guys: https://www.youtube.com/@ChartGuys  ►►JOIN ME ON ROUNDTABLE!  👉https://roundtable.rtb.io/shortUrl/whynwv1 ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEKDAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/   ►► Arch Public Unleash algorithmic trading. Discover how algorithms used by hedge-funds are now accessible to traders looking for unparalleled insights and opportunities!  👉https://archpublic.com/  ►►TRADING ALPHA READY TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS? THE BEST TRADERS IN CRYPTO ARE RELYING ON THESE INDICATORS TO MAKE TRADES. Use code '10OFF' for a 10% discount. 👉https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker  Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://x.com/scottmelker Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.com/ Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe   Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c   #Bitcoin #Crypto #Investments The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

I am marked safe from the great Bitcoin bear market of two and three days ago. I don't know about you guys, but it feels good to have survived and to see price back at $100,000 because obviously we all thought that if we broke below $100,000, we were going straight to zero. In all seriousness, guys, Bitcoin, $100,000 doesn't seem like there's much to complain about at the moment. But now that we are at 100 and consolidating, when does the next big move come? What does it look like? And what will it mean, obviously, for the rest of the market? And more importantly, what kind of news and fundamentals could potentially drive this serious price action? I've got Alex Miller here today to discuss and Dan from ChartGuys to give us some technical analysis on the back end. Let's go.

What is up, everybody? I'm Scott Melker, also known as the Wolf of Wall Street. Before we get started, please subscribe to the channel and hit that like button. Got to bring you on Alex right now. It's light here. It's dark there. You are in another part of the country than me. I would say far north and far west. Yes, far north and far west of me. It's funny. You and I were chatting before the stream and I'm getting like pings from my producer. Hey, dude, want to start the show? Want to go ahead and start the show? But that's what happens when you become friends with people. You start shooting the shit and you don't realize that you actually have a show to put on. But here we are, $100,000 Bitcoin, $100,000, $800,000,

and $1,195,000 at this exact moment. Honestly, we did a Twitter spaces two days ago and there was very bearish sentiment. Bitcoin was at about 95,000, 96,000. And it just blows my mind that we're so deep into looking this on a daily basis that those prices could make people upset. I have never seen a group of people with shorter term memory than the crypto world. It is like the hedonic adjustment around price in crypto is, it's just wild, man. It'll jump 10% or 20% a day or go down 20%. And people just immediately within 24 hours are like, yeah, this is just where it's always been. So if it moves from here, that's insane. Yeah. And I think that maybe people were so upset because altcoins actually did get disproportionately destroyed on that sort of move down but that's what happens in bitcoin bull

markets bitcoin goes down 10 and your altcoins go down 30 so what do you ascribe the move to i i just describe it to leverage i, you take a look at the amount of open interest and leverage that was flushed. And I think, you know, you just get to these levels and there's someone out there who's like, I can make a hell of a lot of money right now by pushing this market around a bit. Liquidate longs, liquidate shorts. Anyone who's leveraged on alt coins is literally an insane person anyways. So that's free money. And just make a whole bunch of money and reset. I mean, that's my my theory generally in these situations. I mean, some people tried to point to fundamental reasons, quantum computing, Willow.

But come on, man. I mean, I don't think that helped. I will say I read a really good thread breaking this down and I retweeted it. Go follow me. I retweeted it, but they were basically doing a breakdown of the google announcement and why it's almost certainly just google pulling the like oh crap everyone thinks we're way behind in ai so we're gonna super overplay this announcement and it's just a whole pr run that they didn't actually do anything particularly interesting or capable which is a hundred percent a google move these days so for anyone who is worried

about quantum uh i think it's probably fake and b also if we get to the point of quantum computing cracking the encryption and making bitcoin worthless i mean your entire internet history is getting like there's so many other things that are going to break and implode your life. They can launch our nukes. No, no, no, because those are just documents. I'm just saying, like I'm just saying, you know, I feel like if we've got quantum computers that can hack the Bitcoin network, then they can just hack the NSA and hack the Department of Defense and hack literally everybody else on the planet.

Well, so you can feel again a little bit safer there uh war games is not a documentary on this one um but also like you know literally the nuke system still runs on like floppy disks for this reason right like inside a nuke silo it's literally like magnetic floppy disks that are used to transfer information because there's just no connection to anything so it's completely unhackable. So wasn't the computer in war games named Joshua? Sorry, man.

I'm not that old. I don't remember. Do you remember the movie Matthew brought up war games? If any, I don't really remember the detail. Yeah, that was it. Would you like to play a game?

Yes. I remember that movie quite well. So let's talk about reasons that we shouldn't be necessarily looking for Bitcoin to go directly to zero in this cycle. Yeah, we've got quite a few. I would say that this is one of them, BlackRock and Fidel. Well, this is actually ETH. So let's jump to Bitcoin, then we'll go back. US spot Bitcoin ETF surpassed 500,000 Bitcoin in cumulative net inflows. This is cumulative net inflows. They are holding over 1.1 million Bitcoin now, which is, last time I checked, more than the Satoshi wallet.

So I think that there's quite a bit of interest in this little Bitcoin thing. Yep. Yeah, Satoshi's cumulative wallets are like 1 million, at least that we know about. Personally, if I were Satoshi, I would have put a whole bunch of unattributable too that I got. But, you know, I don't think those are moving. Yeah, so that's like 1.

What? You're Satoshi? You heard it here first, people. No, no, no. Please, please stay. Don't come visiting my house. I don't have a million Bitcoin. I wish I had.

I appreciate it. Yeah, I mean, you know, when we were on crypto town hall a couple weeks ago i was talking about this and like my view on this is just the longer that we can maintain stability and and you know relative consistency because consistency is relative in crypto uh around the price and and around the duration on it like the longer that the more that more retail is going to come back in right and the more that people are going to be into it and want to adopt. And I think that's just kind of what we're seeing, right? Every day, you are seeing news stories about what's going on, those are percolating into kind of the normal retail channels and news. And you're just having like,

another couple boomers each day give up and be like, crap, I really do need to go buy some of this. And they log into their Fidelity account, and they hit buy on one of the ETFs and a few more people have adopted. Yeah. And so we're speaking of a few more people adopting. Vancouver City Council, Greenlight's exploring Bitcoin and municipal finance. Now, we've seen this movie before, obviously, right? Miami became Bitcoin capital of the world for that brief moment at the peak of last cycle. And we're allowing people to pay taxes and adding it to the treasury. And the mayor, Suarez, to his credit, was taking salary in Bitcoin. Eric Adams tried to capitalize on that in New York and take his salary in Bitcoin.

But we all know that he's a LARP. But he just wants his salary in Turkish Airlines, Miles. But looking at this, is this big news in your mind? I think it's always exciting when we see news like this. Yeah, I'd say, I mean, I think I'm a

big believer on this kind of thing, and lines, not dots, if you've ever heard of that one. I think this particular data point, I think any of these individual data points is pretty meaningless and often get way overhyped. But there's no doubt that overall, if you take it as the match, you're definitely seeing just this slow trend up into the right of folks feeling like they need to adopt it or that they need to at least be considering it. So, you know, Vancouver doing it, man, I have no idea. This is the first I'm hearing of this particular one. So I have no i i this is the first time hearing of

this particular one so i have no i no idea how serious they are about that and like you know we've seen some uh uh there was the microsoft board uh not board resolution but shareholder resolution that failed with only you see that 0.55 percent of shareholders voting for it which i will admit i didn't think it was going to pass i didn't think it was going to be 0.55% of shareholders voting for it, which I will admit, I didn't think it was going to pass. I didn't think it was going to be 0.55%. But again, I think when you compare the importance of that compared to the level of inflows to the ETFs and adoption across the board there, again, that's just where I go back to that lines, not dots things. Guys, I would like to reiterate the point that he just made. We talked about Microsoft potentially adding Bitcoin to the balance sheet, not even 1% of the vote.

Okay, so we're early. Right? I mean, we've been early for a long time. We will continue to be early for a long time. I mean, Amazon now apparently has activist investors that are trying to convince Amazon to add Bitcoin to the balance sheet. I don't see it happening in this case. I love that it's even out there, but I mean, 0.5% is not exactly a super majority. 0.55, don't undersell it.

That's 10% higher than you just said. A few bips there that I might have missed on that. But fair to say that I don't think right now that gives us any indication that we're going to see one of these major corporations add Bitcoin to the balance sheet if it's up to shareholders, right? MicroStrategy was always different because it's up to Michael Saylor. Yeah, I was going to say, I mean, Bitcoin on the balance sheet, whether you're talking about at a government level, at a company level, whatever it is, is still a kind of fundamentally, you could call it religious or very much advocacy thing that's going on. It's only going to happen if you have someone

who's very influential and very in control, who truly believes this is like the right thing to do and the way they want to go with it. I think for most companies, it is actually given the relative volatileness of it, how much they'd be willing to put into it relative to it. It's not actually going to make the move on their finances unless you are a pivoting your company 100% into it like Saylor did. Or again, it's just kind of like a fundamental long-term religious belief for you on it. Moving a couple percent of your corporate treasury into Bitcoin isn't going

to make a difference on anything in the long run for your company. So it just doesn't make sense for most people to really be putting that much brain space onto it. I wonder if that's one of the things that we will see this cycle though. I mean, we've obviously seen, was it MicroPlanet? What's the one in Japan? MetaPlanet. Meta Metaplanet MicroStrategy. There have been reports of a lot of smaller companies actually sort of adding or buying Bitcoin that have gone unnoticed. A million here, two million there. Yeah, and I think you will

continue to see especially micro cap and small and floundering companies. I mean, you remember this in the, well, both in the 17 and 21 cycles, right? Everyone added like the word blockchain to their thing or like, you know, all of these companies desperately added like blockchain to what they were doing in an attempt to get a spike. I would say anyone who is making a lot of noise about adding Bitcoin right now is kind of doing the same thing. This is one of the things that I thought was funny about a lot of the discussion around Microsoft doing when people were like, they have to do this. Microsoft is a $3.4 trillion

company that is, you know, has a not a majority, but a plurality of like compute share right now in the cloud market, that they're not worried about being behind the times on here, like they have plenty going for them. They're not going away tomorrow because of anything. Anyone making a lot of noise about adding Bitcoin to their balance sheet is really just trying to juice the stock price right now. Anyone who is adding it quietly probably actually believes in it. Yeah, I agree with all of that. So just digging into some of the other news we have here, we can talk about, I think,

Trump's cabinet picks, which I think are indisputably bullish, I guess, for the industry and better than anticipated. Interestingly, we have Paul Atkins here for SEC. I love that he openly said in the past that he blamed the United States for FTX crypto disaster. So that's one of the most crypto echo chamber narratives is to make the jump to say because the SEC did not allow crypto in the United States and because they didn't regulate it, it all went offshore and turned into a scam. But that's what our new SEC chair literally said. I mean, this guy hates Tether, but this is in the past too. He didn't just say this. This was at the time. Yeah. And this is also why Tether is like the biggest stable coin out there, because we've made it very, very hard for things to operate here.

And, you know, folks wanted to be they both want U.S. dollars and they wanted to be outside the U.S. regulatory regime. And so Tether takes off. But our homegrown stuff doesn't. It's crazy. Yeah. I mean, speaking of that stable coin market cap, it's 200 billion milestone could double in 2025 as adoption accelerates. This has definitely always been one of the areas where I think we expect to see the most growth in crypto. But I mean, Tether's at like 140 billion, 130 or 140 billion now, I think circle USDC is like a 25, 30% of the market cap. To your point, I mean, Tether has just absolutely flown even without sort of approval in the United States. And now you have Lutnick who's custodying Tether and is a partial owner as the secretary of commerce. So I think things might be rosier for Tether, but this continues to be the killer app outside of Bitcoin. I would say,

I think that's the one thing everyone can agree is absolutely achieved product market fit in crypto is stable coins. And like, it makes sense. If you're in, everybody wants access to US dollars in the US bank account, right? I mean, this is something you've seen for 50, 60 years, basically ever since post-World War II. So of course, that's the thing that people wanted and wanted access to.

And both for, obviously, there's a huge amount of it used on-chain, huge amount of the flows around Tether in particular, obviously the other side of trading pairs on exchanges. But you also just have it being used in day to day life in various places. I've got, you know, as I run a crypto company, I've got people who are based all over the world for me. And guess what? A bunch of them are in countries where their currencies are not the most stable. And, you know, the black market exchange rates are much better. Gray market exchange rates are much better. Gray market exchange rates are much better than the official exchange rates.

And you know what they have all used to moving, moved to using for those kind of swaps and getting the real rates is stable coins. Yeah, 100%. And I think that those will continue to grow massively. But when stable coin on Bitcoin? I mean, you're a Bitcoin builder. Let's talk about A, what you're building, but why we don't have just some massive stablecoin presence on Bitcoin instead of these other networks.

Well, because Bitcoin's not programmable. It's almost like someone needs to be working on something that makes Bitcoin programmable. Maybe a network, a second layer that stacks on top of Bitcoin. That would be a really, really great thing. Yeah. You know, you're seeing a lot of people actually, there are folks like Ducat and things that are working on various forms of like Bitcoin backed stable coins. At the end of the day, I'm a little skeptical on a lot of those places. I think a lot of people were obviously very burned

by the algorithmic stable coin thing. And at the end of the day, just kind of want a like, look, I just want a bank account. I want to stick. I want to hand you some dollars or something. I want to be handed these stablecoins. I want to know that they'll redeem one to one. I think people are going to keep trying to figure out ways to do various forms of the different backed stablecoins and things. But I think at the end of the day, the, you know, the, the bank account model is what most people are going to want and stick to, which means it's going to be kind of chains like Tether and USDC that are going to be the biggest, but you're already seeing them start to issue on natively on Bitcoin layer

twos. You've got more coming. I can't talk about exactly what we're planning on sex, but same thing is thing is coming there. So yeah, I don't know that you're going to see like a Bitcoin native stable coin really take off, but you're absolutely going to see the bigger stable coins issuing natively on Bitcoin ecosystem.

Which is happening at like everywhere. Like I saw, you know, Aptos obviously is a sponsor here. I saw that they now have native USDT, Binance. I mean, it's happening across all of these chains, certainly in the Ethereum ecosystem. They're all coming pretty much to Solana. I mean, Tron is like the most popular place for Tether, right? So it just seems like a natural fit that you would be, right. Yeah, because you can eat $6.2 million bananas.

But yeah, I mean, it just seems surprising that we haven't been having a conversation about USDC or USDT on Bitcoin. Yeah. I mean, I think almost the reason is crypto always likes things that are... The crypto world likes things that are new and shiny, obviously. And I think going back to the idea of just how accepted stable coins are at this point is I think it's not even that it's priced in. It's just it's obvious. Like everyone's already just accepted like, yeah, of course, these things are going to be huge. They're going to be absolutely everywhere.

It's just built into the narrative at this, not just the narrative, but everyone's assumptions about how product in the world is going to work. I've got all these news stories. We've got like 10 minutes left. Let's just talk about what is being built on Bitcoin. It's exciting what you guys are working on, you know, what the timelines for those things are, because I think that's just. Yeah, absolutely. So I mean, you're talking about ETF inflows and outflows at this point. Yeah, but we can talk about those all the time. They can go on forever. I mean, it's a very big kind of few months for us. So for context, for anyone who doesn't know, I run Hero Systems, which is a dev tools company for Bitcoin and the Stacks ecosystem. Stacks is a layer two for Bitcoin, basically makes Bitcoin programmable. So about a month ago, we shipped, the community shipped the Nakamoto release, which basically brought like 10, 20 second block times to Stacks instead of them being one to one with Bitcoin.

The next thing is coming out next week is the initial release of SBTC. So SBTC is a programmable Bitcoin asset. So obviously there's plenty of, you know, everyone knows WBTC. They've seen CBBTC. SBTC is a totally decentralized, going to ultimately be an open membership network secured at the consensus level on stacks um again the the whole goal of the stacks project is to make bitcoin programmable and you're not you can't do that on the bitcoin layer one there's cool research going into it but at this point it's

just not not happening layer twos are where it's got to happen uh and sbbtc is sorry sbtc is kind of uh our communities sbf bcc what oh my god oh god all i needed was the f to make brutal yeah Like SBDC is kind of our community's... SBFBCC, what? Oh my God. SBB... Oh God, I just got... All I needed was the F to make it. Brutal. Yeah, there you go. So like I said, it's a totally decentralized,

secured at the consensus level peg. So basically you can peg in. It's all held in a threshold wallet, secured by a bunch of signers. And so we're going to be... It's going to be launching next week. There's going to be a whole incentive program around it for the first kind of thousand Bitcoin that get into it.

So then it goes off to the layer two and what can you do with it? Yeah, and then you can do everything with it. So any way you want to use it in DeFi, in various applications on the layer two, you know, everything, there's a whole ecosystem of builders all using hero tools, building on top of stacks. So you can go check out Baylor, Alex stacking down their bit flow, there's all kinds of great defy. And I think

ultimately, you know, my view of how we're going to see the on chain crypto world evolve is, obviously, defFi makes more sense on top of Bitcoin than anything else, right? Bitcoin's the oldest asset. It is the digital gold. It is where the largest amount of asset value is. It just makes sense for that to exist there. I think you'll then see a lot of kind of the off-chain applications built on the alt L ones and stuff like Solana. You know, one of the things I tell people right now is, so I run a venture firm on the side with my wife and, you know, when we're getting pitched for the most part about companies that are non-crypto companies, but using crypto rails, they're pretty much all building on Solana right now. Like it's just,

they've done the best job marketing to devs, getting it, they're doing a killer job pulling those off-chain companies. And I think it's, you know, they're also much all building on Slom right now. Like it's just, they've done the best job marketing to devs, getting it. They're doing a killer job pulling those off-chain companies. And I think it's, you know, they're also very focused obviously on transaction speed, low latency, high capacity. It's going to be really hard for something like Ethereum or Bitcoin at the native layers to compete with that

for the kind of things that I think, again, these off-chain companies are looking to build with. So I think those are all going to get built there, but then you're going to see kind of the higher security, more native feeling things like Bitcoin built on top of layer twos. Personally, I think it's going to happen on stacks. That's why I work there. And you're also seeing like SBTC then get adopted by these other ones. So Aptos has already said they're going to do it.

It's coming to Solana, a number of the other kind of alt L1s, as I call them, the non-Ethereum L1s. I think we'll all end up building around using like Stacks and SBTC as their bridge for pulling in the Bitcoin asset value while getting like their native stable coins and doing all of the kind of native super fast build for the off-chain companies there. Yeah, you mentioned Valar, which is really really cool and i've like barely invested in anything in the last like years early and that was one of the few things like when i was introduced to them in february it's really sweet yeah you mentioned obviously but yeah it's i mean it's basically like i mean it's like you're gonna swap on Bitcoin, right? So it's really awesome. For anybody who hasn't checked these things out,

all these things that are so popular on other chains have come to Bitcoin. It's just a matter of bringing the popularity, but you can do everything on there right now that you can do on the other chains. Absolutely. In these contexts, for sure. Yeah. And like I said, I think if you play it out a few years, the growth there

is just going to be so much higher. Because again, it's where people want to be. I think with it, you saw with the release of Ordinals, you've seen it with just the amount of excitement over the last year and a half since then. People want to come back to Bitcoin. The sort of very insular core Bitcoin community drove out a lot of people post-2017 and post-block size wars. But there was always the demand to come back there. People want to hold Bitcoin. They want to be doing it natively there. And so, yeah, we've already seen a huge amount of growth in the Stacks ecosystem, especially around DeFi

in the last six or 12 months. And I think 2025 is just going to be absolutely massive for it. Yeah, I mean, you and Muneeb, obviously, and Yago are like my favorite Bitcoin builders, you know, and they have Bitcoin OS coming. And obviously, they also pulled off a ZK roll-up live on stage at Bitcoin Nashville. I mean, this stuff is seriously happening.

Yeah, it's like I said, it's really going. I think the level of capacity you need right now is only going to happen on the L2 level of capacity you need right now is only going to happen on the l2s but you fast forward this out five years maybe and i think there's probably true native like that you say five years instead of five months though because if this was happening like on solana right now and this is no hate to anything like we'd all be like this is going to be the biggest thing before the end of this cycle i feel like the bitcoin builders are like genuine or at least have been here long

enough to be like this stuff's gonna take some time guys yeah also something i saw is built from the ground up for that the whole point to bitcoin is that it is stable and we don't want to mess with the l1 too much because there there's enough secured around it there's enough locked into it you don't want to mess with that too much so it does require a little more technical research and development to figure out how to do things without risking a compromise on the core chain. And like, that is what we want. You know, Jameson Lopp's done a lot of good writing and debate on kind of the ossification argument around Bitcoin. And personally, it's funny, right? I'm someone who wants to see everything built on top of Bitcoin, spend my entire days working there.

I'm still pretty much for, you know, largely ossifying the L1 and it needs some upgrades. It needs some continuation. Opcat or CTB would be great to have. But you got to be really careful with it. Like what Bitcoin is never going to be fully programmable. It's never at the L1. It's never going to have the capacity or the latency for people to really want to operate onto it. Again, it's moving gold between bank vaults,

and that is fine. Once you have the gold in the various bank vaults and can move them smoothly, then you can build your financial layers and your entire financial system on top of it. That's what the L2s are doing. So obviously, most of these things will take time. But are there things that you think we'll start to see really early iterations of that will have a meaningful level of adoption on Bitcoin? Let's say we have six to 12 months of bull market. I have no idea. But if we're just looking at four-year cycles, let's say, and then we go back to building in a bear or something. Any of the things you see that will really be aha moments or sort of light bulbs on Bitcoin during that period?

Yeah. I mean, like I said, I think the launch of SBTC is going to be huge. I think you're going to immediately see a ton pour into DeFi on top of Stacks using that. And, you know, people actually getting to take their Bitcoin, including like everything from, you know, tiny retail traders with, you know, a couple hundred thousand saps all the way up to whales with a couple hundred thousand Bitcoin, start deploying it into a lot of this, you know, Bitcoin native DeFi plays, because again, it's just, it's what people want. There's an unbelievable demand for it. Yeah, alex thank you so much guys as he very quietly under his breath said earlier follow him follow him on tag tagged right is it just it's alex something miller right i mean i know it's tech yeah alex l miller i i should you know i was a few months late to twitter in 2008 and so alex and alex miller were taken i'll just say

that would be sweet if you were just alex i was going to say this. Oh, I give Alex Wilhelm. I would say I give Alex Wilhelm crap all the time for this, for taking the name. Wow. I guess you can't be bitter if he just beat you to it. Yeah. And he's a good guy, too. So thanks very much, sir. I'll see you later.

Awesome, man. Always appreciate it. Thank you. Bye. And now to talk about, is Bitcoin about to skyrocket, the parabolic move everyone is waiting for? I don't know if Dan actually thinks that might happen. We're going to find out. Dan, is this it?

Is it today? We're going to 179.888,000? Not today. We're still tightening up on the daily range, and that can continue through the weekend. But bulls are holding on just fine. We got these little higher lows, and we're sticking around near 100,000. And it's a good sign that Bitcoin held those lows. You know, this is, we're essentially just trading within this, remember that little volatility day we had.

We bounced up, lower high, higher low, testing resistance. So again, just watching these little higher lows that are keeping the bulls in control. And while that was happening all coins saw a more significant flush and again same deal uh the weekly consolidation was inevitable and the weekly consolidation we're seeing in the all coins is still very healthy at this point and you can see you know the people that are new to crypto being like ah 25 30 down how is this healthy consolidation it's like this is how it goes this is this is what the bull cycles do um and so you know there's no red flags and essentially what we need to see from here into the end of the year if

we're going to say yeah it's all coin season is the dominance chart needs to confirm this weekly downtrend so we already fell off with a big drop we know that much but if we can do that lower high lower low we're going to be looking at the altcoins to confirm weekly bull flags into continuation. Some names have already done it like LINK. The more names that do it, the more likely we're going to see other names join. So no red flags, bulls are just fine. And volatility in Bitcoin is going to pick up when this tightening range breaks. But again, can easily go through the weekend. We know things slow slow down. And then we'll look to next week for a break. Yeah, I mean, sitting here back at 101,000 after that retrace, like I said, two days ago, I was literally on spaces and everyone was like, well, we got to go to the 80s, maybe back to like 74, 75 to retest the previous all time high.

When I spoke to Peter Brandt, he was like, dude, I don't think Bitcoin is going back to 74. That's too obvious. He was like, it doesn't come back to test that previous all-time high breakout unless it's in the next bear market. I mean, it could. And apparently there's a CME gap at like 78 or 79 that's concerning people, but those things don't really register in my analysis if it really sets off and flies. Yeah. I mean, ideally, the next time we do see weekly consolidation on Bitcoin, it holds EMA 12 on the weekly to keep it nice and healthy. And again, that's what a bunch of alts did. You look at Ripple, we're not even close to weekly EMA 12, but even Sol, who started consolidation much sooner, that's that level. If we hold that, we're just fine. And so that's what bulls want to see.

Sol's got this nice daily channel to be keeping an eye on. And again, just healthy contained consolidation, taking a bit of a breather. But weekly high or low is the most likely scenario and looking for that to shape up into the end of the year. So again, you know, you should be prepared. Like what we're seeing in the altcoin space is a bunch of unprepared people, people just too bullish to leverage. If you're going to get, you know,

blown up from weekly consolidation after going straight up for five weeks, you're not playing this game correctly. Let me fix my settings here real quick. Microphone. Yeah, it's no big deal but you're that's a little echoey but i mean i can just share something i've been looking at that i just opened the cmu chart when i saw that which i haven't done so yeah there is this big gap right here kind of looks like it's 77.6 to like 80 000 something like that and most of these gaps have gotten filled they got these ones that people thought would never get filled on the way up in the last bull market got filled on the way down but also important remember that when we were at uh you know 15 000 here people said we had to come down and fill the

gap at 11 or the one at nine and these never ever ever ever got filled so you know bear with me. Yeah. Um, and those never got filled. So it wouldn't surprise me, uh, at all to not see the 78,000, but I have said, I mean, there is a fundamental level kind of at this 74 to 75,000.

That, uh, was the previous all time high. Eventually we might see that retested. I just don't think that's something that we need to see right now, you know? All right. I think I'm back. Oh yeah. You sound good. Okay. So yeah, I see you got Solana chart pulled up. I was just talking about the CME gaps, but continue on.

Honestly, I don't use those gaps. It's worth paying attention to. I'm not going to say they're not useful, but just personally, I don't use them. It doesn't impact my analysis in any way. If we were pulling back and a gap is near, oftentimes that can act as a target. But overall, it's just the price action. Just keep it simple. And the price levels forming those higher lows is all we care about as far as bigger picture trend. Let's go to ETH here just because this resistance zone is very clear, just under 4,000 to 4,100. And we're just battling it again right now. And the bulls are liking the fact that worst case, we just reject here and we keep tightening up same as what's possible for

Bitcoin through the weekend. But obviously, this is a very clear resistance zone. And, you know, we keep we've been looking at this ETH BTC chart for a long time, you and I and the downtrend resistance line that we've been watching is nowhere near in play. But it's a battle here. You know, if ETH is going to make a run towards its all time high, we just got to see continued progress on this chart. And we've got to get over, you know, this little double top and we just have to start seeing these longer term shifts which we're seeing in the dominance chart and we need to see it uh take place on eth btc as well you want to see something pretty crazy i decided today to use chat gpt to see if it could do technical analysis which i've never tried ever and i just posted a weekly chart of Ethereum naked, except for it had two MAs, which I didn't tell it what they were.

And it identified them as the 50 and the 200. It says right here, resistance level 4,000 to 4,100. I didn't draw lines on this chart. I gave no context. I didn't give an opinion. It's pretty incredible. I'm now obsolete. We're being obsolete. I mean, it's giving pretty obvious supports like 50 MA, 200 MA, but the fact that I identified them and has the resistance at 4,000 to 4,100 as the key resistance, as you just said, which made me think of this, pretty incredible. I mean, it can be a tool. Use it for sure. When I was starting learning technical analysis, I had a mentor and my process was pretending I was him. And what would he say looking at this chart? And I would type up, this is what he would say. And if you don't have a mentor, you hold the AI's hand and let it be your mentor and see the things that it is seeing. You got to check on it, right? So you

got to make sure, I'm saying, I think you need a basic level of knowledge. I wouldn't just type something into chat GPT and then start trading on it. Like, I'll tell you this, like when I tried it with, I did have some lines drawn. And for example, it would say set a stop loss at, and it would say on that support line, just because that line was drawn as opposed to saying like, Hey, maybe 4% below that line, right? You know what I mean? So yeah, you need the wiggle. You don't want to put your stop loss on support. That's exactly how you get crushed every single time, things like that. But I mean, the basic analysis, if you're not asking it how to trade it, it's pretty solid. Yeah. You need that human touch for the little nuances for sure that you get

through experience. Uh, but actually I just had a thought, you know, one way it would be useful is you've got your thesis, you know, you're long or whatever, have it spit out the counter argument. What am I missing? What's bearish about this chart? If I'm all bull, like show me what could pop, what I could be possibly overlooking. That would be a good way to utilize it. Having a friend to look at the chart with you through another set of eyes, basically. But i was just really impressed that i was like i didn't even know if it could do it because i tried it maybe six months ago or something and it was like you know nothing yeah or like complete nonsense and now it i mean i just was blown away when it was like yeah that's the 50 ma that's the 200 okay cool it's impressive yeah

and that's not on the chart. You can see the lines, but you can't see, maybe actually up in the top left corner, it shows which indicators are up. So maybe that's how it found it. So yeah, just one more note on altcoins. If we're going to stay in full bull control mode, you want to hold the lows that we just hit. Here's OP, whatever name you're looking at, hold those lows. And it's again, entirely possible. You know, this is a great bounce just using OP as an example, but could easily tighten up for a bit. Just, you know, it's, it's the kind of thing, actually, let's go over a little lesson here. I traded XRP and I got stopped out. And this is an example of aggressive versus conservative. So I'm now in a conservative point in my career where my number one priority is not giving back profit. Whereas back when I was aggressive, 2017 and onward,

number one goal is increase my account. And so I played this XRP flush and I got filled low $2 on the initial flush and ended up selling, nope, initial flush, selling a third 220s, stuck myself down to break even with fees. And they got me right on the wick. And so that was me positioning for, I don't want to lose anything here. I want to be risk-free and let it try and play out. And whereas if I were being aggressive, I'm looking to have a solid win on this trade. I would be willing to risk red. And risk and reward are directly related in that sense. You have to be willing to risk a significant amount of capital sometimes if you want the reward of a significant amount of capital. And so this is my reminder of take a little risk. You can have a little red. It's okay.

Yeah. I mean, I'm looking at some of these, I didn't actually trade it, but like, uh, I think one of them that I had drawn, I don't even know if I have it now, but like Cody, here's an example, exactly what you're talking about. Because I think this is, this is why when I was on with Alex before, he's like, what do you think happened? I was like, I think they were just flushing everyone because, uh, you know, this, my, this was the idea, right? So you would have had your stop like right here and the Wix take out all the stops, but the idea is right, you know?

Like, and so it's the same thing. It's just how much were you willing to lose? Well, if you were entering at 15 cents, you certainly didn't want to be necessarily in at 12 cents if you were trying not to lose anything, right? But quickly back on the same day to up just as much as you would have lost. So it's, you know, trading is really, really hard, especially in crypto, especially if you're trying to use leverage

and not get liquidated. Yeah. A bunch of names gave nice double bottoms, ETH, ADA, but a bunch of other names did get that little lower low with no follow through. And so it's definitely, that goes back to what we were talking about in terms of wiggle room, you definitely want to give some wiggle room, I didn't give enough. And that's just a little reminder to myself, you know, as long as you're still in a bull market, and there's no major red flags, give a little bit more wiggle room. And even if that means just sizing down position a little bit, you know, if I don't want to risk three, 3%, or whatever on this position size, well, if I take three quarters of the position size and risk 5%, it's comparable. So always, you can adjust your position size with the amount of risk you're

willing to take. One more thing outside of crypto, and unfortunately we missed the top, but quantum computing stocks. This is just, we're in the euphoria part of the cycle where it's throw everything at the wall. And these are penny stocks with valuations that don't make sense right now, but just loving the volatility in both directions. This is RGTI. There's so many of them that just run 400, 500% over the last six weeks. And so RGTI, QUBT, QBTS, great volatility for day trading. But I do believe that we're going to see a euphoria top into weekly consolidation here

over the next couple of weeks. But in the meantime, trading back and forth. So if you're looking for volatility for day trading in the stock world, check out Quantum Stocks. Awesome. I'm going to keep you for two more seconds. Well, I can let you go, but I saw that they were talking about Sui in the chat. And I know that Valerie was specifically talking about it and saying she was up four or five X. I just kind of saw it. I can't remember

exactly how it was, but doesn't know how to figure out her exits. Just want to show that at this moment, maybe because you didn't think about your exits, you did exceptionally well, but it's actually making a new all-time high today. So, I mean, with all this volume that's come in since the bottom, I mean, crazy, crazy interest. This was the trade I had originally shared was this bull flag. It obviously hit that target. But she was looking at trading alpha, this indicator.

I mean, it's nothing but – I mean, there's no reason I don't think to – maybe take some off the top because you've hit a new all-time high, but I don't think this is a position where the chart says to exit entirely. Yeah. I mean, if you've got life-changing gains or significant gains that would have an impact on your life, you take some off. That's a standard rule of thumb, but we just established a solid base of support in the lower $3 range that held on the altcoin flush that we just saw. So it is still holding on just fine. And my style is take a bit of profit into strength and then just walk up a stop with bases of support for a bigger chunk of the position if you want to let it run. Yeah, I wouldn't want to be in this basically below $3, as you said.

What's this, Wick? $2.99,'s this wick 299 298 uh you know and below there you're starting to lose some key support and probably heading back down to two bucks or something but you just kind of walk it up as this goes but if this closes as a new high you know you can definitely a lead bull yeah yeah this has been a been a winner and you're you're probably doing pretty good there all right dan thank you so much everybody follow chart guys of course check out his channels everything that he's doing we'll see you next next Thursday, man. All right. Have a good one. Thanks, Scott. All right. Thanks everyone. Bye.