The Wolf Of All Streets - Is Bitcoin Set To Explode? Crypto Volatility Is Going Up | Macro Monday

Episode Date: March 24, 2025

Join Dave Weisberger, Mike McGlone, and James Lavish as we break down what's happening in macro and crypto! Dave Weisberger: https://twitter.com/daveweisberger1 James Lavish: https://twitter.com/jameslavish Mike McGlone: https://twitter.com/mikemcglone11 ►► 🔥 LBANK Exchange - No KYC Required! Claim up to 50% trading bonus! Join today & get rewarded! Start trading to claim up to 50% in trading bonuses!! 👉https://www.lbank.com/activity/ScottMelker-Cashback?icode=4M3HD ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEKDAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/ ►► Arch Public Unleash algorithmic trading. Discover how algorithms used by hedge-funds are now accessible to traders looking for unparalleled insights and opportunities! 👉https://archpublic.com/ ►►TRADING ALPHA READY TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS? THE BEST TRADERS IN CRYPTO ARE RELYING ON THESE INDICATORS TO MAKE TRADES. Use code '10OFF' for a 10% discount. 👉https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://x.com/scottmelker Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.com/ Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c #Bitcoin #Crypto #MacroMonday The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

Bitcoin is showing signs of life trading back above $87,000 on this beautiful Macro Monday. All coins also looking a bit jumpy. All of this following copper looking at all time highs, which is red meat for Mike McGlone. We're going to talk about that and everything else macro here on Macro Monday. Let's go. What is up everybody? I'm Scott Melker, also known as the Wolf of all streets. Before we get started, please subscribe to the channel and hit that like button for $87,000 Bitcoin. That's what gets us excited now.

On a Monday morning, gonna bring on the gentlemen now. We have Dave Weisberger also known as Scott Melker last week. Good job. Thank you for hosting Crypto Town Hall every single day in my stead. Mike and of course, James, good morning gentlemen. How are we doing Mike as I said? It's it's in the news copper in the news right now Which I know is very exciting because we talked about copper here all the time

But we've got copper prices near all-time high. I believe they actually made an all-time high Am I wrong when? Copper once positively correlated to Bitcoin years record high will Bitcoin follow suit that was on the 20th I checked the copper chart. It looks like it just tapped a high today So it's very close to the high and US traded copper from last year was five dollars and 20 cents I think we're pretty we're 516 right now The problem is I hate to use the word but it's more likely to be transitory. It's for the wrong reasons to use the word but it's more likely to be transitory it's for the wrong reasons. And I had to do that because a new day would get fired up on it

because so US traded copper maybe you can show my screen I'll show it real quick is US traded copper is leading all industrial metals but it's going up for the wrong reasons that's what you see in in orange this is US traded copper versus London traded copper the spread is 13% most ever we go back 30 years in the data and then you look at US copper versus industrial metals copper, the spread is 13%, it's the most ever, we go back 30 years in the data, and then you look at US copper versus industrial metals index, it's part of that index, but it's the highest ever. It's just, unfortunately, that's US traded copper, and the reason is that we have commerce,

it's fears of tariffs. Now there's really been no substantial tariffs on imports of US copper, so here's the significance and differences, US has a deficit of copper production, we import maybe 50% of it. We have a massive surplus of crude oil and grains. Those prices are getting pressured lower. We know crude oil and copper's coming going up a little because of the threat of tariffs. The point is, right now, copper is under the waiting for recommendations from the commerce department. So how much tariffs should be put on it and when, and that might take till the end of the year.

So yes, things are happening now, but the point is markets just squeezing out all the shorts first. And the point is, this is what happens to commodities is typically their own worst enemy. So if you're the Trump administration, you see that this, this, their goal is lower inflation and help reduce regulatory environment and help increase U help increase US production of all type of goods. Pumping up the price of copper by 30% for artificial reasons will probably be pushed back a little bit, at least initially. You look at the rest of the world in terms of industrial metals, it's very much as a

signal that, yeah, right now we're going to squeeze everybody out. The problem is it's not really showing up in futures. Last night, last year when copper put in a pretty good high around 520, it was clearly a sell signal. We show that in futures. Now there's like managed money, hedge funds, the people who really trade specs are not involved. They're only in up to 9% net long. Last year the peak was 25% of total open interest net long.

So I wanted to fire up Dave on that word transitory because yeah, this is going to be, see what's happening there. This is the range forever and US copper versus London copper. And this is what we're doing because of tariffs. And by the way, they're not happening yet. And we don't know for sure if they'll come. But by copper going up, it's probably an indication of Trump administration. You probably should lay low on those tariffs.

Yeah, it seems like even really good. Can I just ask a question? Because it's yeah, sure. I was just gonna say it seems even Coinbase got I mean, CoinDesk got this right, it says copper's rise is likely led by Trump's tariffs weakening its appeal as leading indicator for risk assets because you do have, like, you look at a chart, copper and Bitcoin have been very closely, they travel closely, I won't say they're correlated, but Bitcoin often follows copper as a lead of risk assets.

So you're saying, and so is CoinDesk, you, not really the case this time, sort of a separate scenario. But go ahead, Dave. The simple question is, what does London copper look like on the chart? How is it relative to the all-time high? It's very close at $10,000 a ton. That's about where it was last year about the all-time high. The difference is, compared to if you put it in US dollar base, US dollar base copper is trading

515. If you convert London copper to that, it's more like 460, 470. So it's the disparity that's the significance. And if you really want to see what matters for Bitcoin, ignore copper. I'll show you what really matters and actually show you in the chart what really matters for Bitcoin is other cryptocurrencies and certain things. This is just Bitcoin overlaid with the market cap with Dogecoin. That's the same chart if you really want to look at the same chart.

I know people don't love it. I just point out facts and then I want to point out other things that really matter for things like cryptos. This is a Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index 200 mover and average is rolling over maybe to call right back up But it's rolling over from an all-time high from the actually didn't make an all-time high at the same time that VIX volatility is rolling upwards is bottoming from a six-year low and That ETF total holdings and gold are rolling back upwards from a six-year low So I see that disparity and here the bottom line for crypto people if you're bullish you need the stock market to go up and it's up today.

Before I rant James, why don't you go next? Well, I mean, I think the causation or correlation is a little bit mixed there, Mike. I don't see Dogecoin going up causing Bitcoin to go up. I see it the other way around and vice versa. So again, look, Bitcoin has had a tremendous run since the election of this new administration. It's no surprise we've had a pullback. It's no surprise we've had a pullback in risk assets. I mean, you know, we have talked about them

getting ahead of themselves and the question was, was liquidity going to be pumped into the markets to catch up to them or were the markets going to contract to mean correlate back to mean revert back to the amount of liquidity that's out there and so we're seeing that the markets have been mean reverting back to the amount of liquidity it's out there and that's a lag though we have to remember that it's a lag so now what we're seeing is people speculating about where the 10-year Treasury is going to be at the end of the year.

How much is that going to affect risk assets? What is the Fed going to do over the course of this year? And we've seen the WIRP, which is in Bloomberg, it's your charts over there. It's your It's your charts over there. It's your estimate over here of the interest rate probability that we've gone from the probability of having two cuts to three cuts to two cuts back to three cuts, almost 2.6, 2.7 now at the end of this year. So there's a lot of speculation about how much liquidity is gonna come into the market and how much the Fed is going to do. So last week, the most important

thing that happened last week, and again, it's kind of symbolic in a way that Powell and the Fed decided to move their treasury QT down from $25 billion a month to $5 billion. That's it. $5 billion a month that they're going to take liquidity out of the markets and the treasuries. They're still doing their mortgage backs. Maybe that's interesting that they're still squeezing the long end of the curve here. But the reality is that there's really no more QT going on. And this symbolic QT of $5 billion a month, it's literally nothing, is once that flips, that's gonna be a pretty big signal to the market that the game is on, the quiddy is coming back in,

and these risk assets are going to rise again. And the one that always leaves it in the last couple of years has been Bitcoin. And we agree that on that 100%, Mike, I don't agree that it should be long term. I disagree that it's going, you know, back to 10 or 20,000. I do believe that people are starting to understand widespread, the understanding Bitcoin is expanding and that there's still tremendous tailwinds for Bitcoin in particular, not Dogecoin, but Bitcoin in particular in the coming years.

I think we agree now that Bitcoin's leading risk, but I think it's just a question of which direction it's leading it in. Yeah. Maybe we debate and really quickly, Dave, just before you jump in, I just I do want to just show this Arthur Hayes. I got the wrong screen.

Arthur Hayes here. His grammar was off as he says in the second tweet, but he says I bet Bitcoin hits 110k before it retests 76.5k. He was one calling for you know, 70. He said his grammar is off. He means it never goes to 76. It goes to 110 and then flies. But exactly what James just said, the Fed is going from QT to QE for treasuries and

tariffs don't matter because transitory inflation, Jay Pal told me so. Anyway, so today we have a clear some signal and a lot of people starting to flip bullish here as I guess. Yeah, that always makes me a little a little a little worried, but it's still more fear out there. And there's still more more people worried. But look, when Arthur made that point I brought it up and I said I think that he's underestimating the passive buying from institutions Which are accumulating and changing the supply-demand dynamic. I was right. He was wrong got that You know, it's public thankfully

I'm doing these videos so you can go back and look and see that literally I said when he said it was go below 70 I said probably not gonna go below the 78 77 range that was that one week down which I called a tradable bottom and the reason I called it a tradable bottom because Mike literally is making the single biggest mistake you can make in statistics which is overfitting you're assuming the past when you have a massively increased adoption curve in Bitcoin. Yes if you look at the Bitcoin ether ratiother ratio, you're making the same mistake, by the way, in your generational bottom thesis because there is none of that in Ethereum. And so what you're seeing is something that is happening underneath the current.

It's like there's this great idea when you talk about market impact of this idea of this analogy of the iceberg. And the notion is when the orders you see in the market idea of this analogy of the iceberg. And the notion is when you, the orders you see in the market are only the tip of the iceberg and you really have to look to see what's underneath it. In the case of Bitcoin, there is an iceberg of demand of institutions who trade differently than retail. Retail trades like a pack of lemmings either to go off a clip or to keep

running. And we always talk about it as FOMO. We make these funny memes where you have the two booths, the one that says Bitcoin 100,000, and there's a huge line. And the one that says Bitcoin 75,000, there's nobody there. And the guy's like twiddling his thumbs because that's how retail trades. Institutions are the opposite. If an institution makes an allocation decision, then they start trying to accumulate, they don't chase the price because in fact, traders who chase prices get fired. That is, it is career risk to do it. And so when Mike says, and correctly,

that they're not gonna chase these prices, they're gonna remember it, they're gonna do it, whatever, that's happening. That said, there's another thing, it's called portfolio managers. And the PMs are saying, well, I need you to get me some. And so what they're doing is they're constantly bidding in the market, they're constantly trading,

quote, in line with the market. And they use algorithms such as CoinRoutes or Talos, et cetera. And yeah, exactly. And we've seen that, that has undeniably been true in the market through this entire period of the fall from 100,000. The institutions weren't chasing it at the all time highs. They watched these wicks up and they sit there and the algorithms just don't do anything.

Talk to your friends from Arch Public, who's done a phenomenal job over the last few months. If you look at their returns or, you know, way of buying, I'm sorry to shill one of your products, but Arch has been doing exactly the same thing. And the reason their algo works is because returns or, you know, way of buying, I'm sorry to shill one of your products, but it's proven, but arch has been doing exactly the same thing. And the reason their algo works is because we have a bifurcated market institutions or passive buyers and retail are the ones that are running with their chickens or their heads cut off.

Now, the truth is, it's not just retail, it's also the crypto community. So we have this other thing going on, which is people in crypto believe Bitcoin is boring and therefore they jump into altcoins at every sign of life. And when they look at their portfolio at the end of this, they have less Bitcoin than they had before because they sold Bitcoin to buy altcoins,

the altcoins as they chase them the way up and the altcoins for all the reasons that Mike correctly points out, drop, and then they end up with less Bitcoin. And so you've had this great washing machine over the last, basically it's been going on, it went on for a large part of the eight months that it was trading sideways of Bitcoin being moved

from the hands of the crypto community to the hands of people who look more like me and James and Mike. TradFi people have a much higher percentage of Bitcoin. Well, you're younger, slightly. Slightly. Thank you. Thank you. Yeah. Yeah. You know, but so, so that washing machine is happening. But the problem that I have is let's, let's talk about copper or any other metal or gold. Gold is price elastic. We don't like this supply is price elastic. The more the gold price goes up, the more miners are going to be able to put marginal mines into operation. There is nothing like that in Bitcoin. And people need to understand, I don't I don't want to hear 21 million cryptos. I don't want to hear 14,000

cryptos. I don't want to hear 1000 cryptos. Bitcoin is Bitcoin. Within the crypto community, there are alternatives that people see are higher within crypto. We'll call those higher beta where people are chasing lottery tickets But the higher the percentage of institutional ownership of Bitcoin gets the less important that is and that's a very important point So my thesis different than Mike's is even if you look backwards and it's chart about Doge credit does and Doge is special in a sense, because it's the only meme that has a chance of becoming something real. It right now, it's still Pinocchio, right? But if, for example, X decides to build a payment system,

and for whatever reason, Elon thinks it would be funny to use the Doge chain to build that payment system, then all of a sudden Pinocchio becomes a real boy. And that's why Doge might be something different. I personally don't own it. I'm not playing in that game. We all know my thought about memes.

I think memes are interesting lottery tickets that are almost guaranteed to be worthless if you don't cash them in when they get to the high, but that's a different story. But the point is Bitcoin supply is inelastic completely. And every time Mike says something that disagrees with that, it sets my teeth on edge because the math is the math.

And that's a big part of it. And so to me, that matters. Now, the other thing that matters is monetary supply. James, question for you. Sir. QT, it doesn't, the end of QT means they're actually doing QE in order to keep up with the expiration or the maturation of the bonds they already own.

Yeah, I mean, if they're gonna, if they're, well, when bonds mature, the vast majority of them go, they get, that money goes back into the bond market, into the next issue. That's what I'm saying. So in other words, when the bonds that are rolling off the bond market, you know, into the next issue. That's what I'm saying. So they, but so in other words, when the bonds that are rolling off the balance sheet, but then to not have the balance sheet contract, they actually have to be buying bonds.

Well, but they're going to, but remember that they're going to get cash back for that and then just put it back in. So it's a net net neutral, right? I understand it's net neutral. I understand it's net neutral, but yeah, I, I deal all day long on Twitter, or excuse me, on X with lawyers. So let's do a little bit of sophistry. Is there any way to be net neutral without the Fed hitting the buy button?

No, they've gotta hit the buy button, but remember, they're getting cash back to do that. Yeah, but they theoretically, where'd that cash come from in the first place. Right. But I agree. But it was already out there. Right. So I'm not talking about money supply now.

They're not printing money, right? They're not printing money, but they're right. But they are continuing the QE non QE. Yeah, that's right. Yeah, it is. I know you's right. Fake QE. Yeah. It is. I know you got some responses there. Yeah, let's be careful if people have a vested interest

for things to go up and ignore the facts of what's happening. Bitcoin has an unlimited amount of competitors from other cryptocurrencies. In 2009, there was one, since then, we've had the biggest money pump in history in a massive rally in all risk assets, Bitcoin's the leader. Now there's 13 million of them.

Okay, maybe there's more, maybe there's less, but there's tons of them. I need to show one chart. Just the lessons of commodities. I know Dave's got a lot of experience and lessons, but the lessons I've learned in commodities that do not have fixed, do not have returns from gold is the institution's already

done. I mean, this is in terms of ETFs. And this is a point I made last year. This is total institutional holdings of Bitcoin ETFs. Now it's down about 110. It peaked about at 140. And this is total institutional holdings of gold ETFs are going up. So gold ETFs going up. Institutions buying it, or if you consider the institutions, but they're more buy and hold buyers versus Bitcoin ETFs are going down. They've learned the lesson of what they've been told about Bitcoin. It's not true. It's leveraged beta, we proved that. Now, maybe this has been a short-term correction, but we're proving the whole crypto space is very much leveraged beta. And that's what I showed you earlier, it's rolling over. So maybe if we don't get that next 10% correction

in the stock market, Bitcoin can stay above 90 and not go back to 50 or 10, which I expect, but let's remember where we are in the spaces. And the things that Dave pointed out last time are very missing what's happening is the asset that's in the mainstream and everybody loves, typically five, 10 years from now, does not perform that well.

Let's give the example you used Amazon last time. Remember when analysts from Lehman put out an, I think it was 2001 that Amazon was go under? Who went under? That's the point is now Bitcoin's so much in the mainstream, so much people have, we've had the ETFs launch, we have the biggest pump in history that's peaked around 100 grand. To me, as we say in the trading pits in New York, you're done. The trade's done for now.

We need to show proof. So here's what I think it's going to take for it. If we're going to be macro and we're going to focus only on Bitcoin, fine. What it's going to take for that to go up. Remember, I've been the guy who's been quite bullish until the last year. Is stock market going to go up? Well, our chief economists and our chief equity people think it's going to go down. I think that sentiment is shift.

People are getting it. People are getting that we're seeing a post-World War shift in the way of things being happening in the world. With the US, the whole world is no longer being able to depend on the US for exports too and for security. That's shifting and that means profits. That means the stock market's probably more of a bit of a correction. So to me, the macro is very bearish and I'm just looking for indicators

So one key indicators I use dogecoin because it's a joke But there's so many of them and then I point to which look at aetherium aetherium finally at least it's holding 2,000 now I you know, I've used this theory before when I was at 3,000 what stops it going from 2,000 now It's bouncing at 2,000 if you're a trader my fears fear is it goes back down to 1000. It's still a best performer. So I look at all the little indicators. And to me, the macro is that Bitcoin is a great leading indicator. And I mentioned it's not causation, but you also know, also when I want to end with one key question from this administration, we see what they're doing. It's a shift that none of us ever seen before. I'm only 60. But one thing we are seeing is we do have a best input.

It's made very clear they want bond yields to go lower. The number one way to make the Fed ease and to reduce some of the wealth effect, which was the highest ever last year ever, is just have the stock market crack 20%. That brings everything lower. Now, if we can go down another 20, 10% and have Bitcoin go up, that would be a miracle.

That would bring all the institutions. But right now, what they've learned so far by the ETF launches, great, I'm long leverage beta, beta is going down, I'm losing more. I will say really quickly, Dave, just quickly, I just want to correct one thing and just for having the numbers straight, we did see net inflows this week into Bitcoin ETFs after the carry trade seemingly unwound, and it was the second largest this year at 744 million. That said, Mike, that doesn't even recapture last week. So it's fair to say they're going down, obviously,

when you have a five-week streak of outflows, but this is the first week back of inflows, and it's at 744 million. Also, did you say Bitcoin was going to 10,000? Did that get in passing? No, I put that call out a few weeks ago. I expect a normal reversion correction in the stock market. Maybe we get that back to 1.5 times GDP. That is not profound. It's exact. Just look at the histories of the US in 1930s. Look at Japan in 1990s and China now. Once you get to two times GDP,

the stock market is the economy. And that's where we are right now, we're seeing that. If it goes down, like it's only been what, 5% so far, that just takes away people's wealth. And the thing is we hit that switch. I sense it everywhere. I sense people like, thank you very much, shutting off the spending until we get through this period

with Trump's first 100 days at least. But yeah, I've made the call. I put it out a couple of weeks ago. I said when it's at 10,000, I thought it was going to 100. I think it's a slap off of zero. Mike, wait a minute. The S&P was up at 6,150. Now it drew down to 5,500.

That's over a 10% correction. Are you calling for another 10% beyond that? No, Gina Martin-Adams is. I am. But when I have the rest of my team saying it, I go with, yeah, it's our, our senior equity strategist is looking for another 10% correction in the S&P 500. All the indications they have are bearish. OK, so I've been bearish too early. I've been wrong about that. But when they go bullish, bearish, and I'm, you know, I just stick with that. So that's still, all the sentiment indicators and the reversions are all

heading lower from their standpoint. And then this morning, go ahead. Yeah, and I, OK, I hear you. And I wrote about, you know, the, the U.S. technically being in recession this weekend. You know, all the leading, the leading economic indicators has been showing it for years now that the Biden administration did not admit about it. And so they've been doing non-QEQE this whole fucking time. And they've been hiding it by hiring so many government employees, by running massive government deficits, and by just shortening the duration on their issuance, the debt issuance, all the way down to just a few days, for God's sakes. And so now you've got $10 trillion of debt

that's coming to you, and you're seeing pockets of recession all over the economy. So I totally agree with that. And I totally agree that we are completely financialized in our economy. That is 100% true. I mean, there's nothing more obvious than looking at the chart of the Fed,

and I'll bring it up in a second, about how much the Fed is losing every single month itself in operations just from all of the RRP, the reverse repo payouts that it's been, it's been running to the banks. Okay, so massive losses out of the Fed. That's QE. That's been going on, but that's kind of stopped now. You know, there's no, there's no more money coming out of the RRP. And so, you know, those, those losses are now just running kind of, they're running stagnant. So the question is, how, the Fed sees this, in my opinion. They see it. That's why they stopped the QE, or the QT. They see it. They know this has happened, and they've got to, they've got to pump the brakes here. The question is, when do they stop the QT on the

mortgage backs? And when do they flip the switch to QE? That's the only question in my mind. I don't even care about the curve because you know, Mike, you know as well as I do that the Fed does not control the long end of the curve. As much as Besant wants to control the 10 year, you know, they don't, but they can if they want to. I have a crystal ball. I can predict what Mike's going to say when the stock market drops 20%. Well, at least, I mean, okay, the fact is we, last year, we created $12 trillion of stock market wealth creation. So most in the history of mankind ever. And we got to 2.2 times GDP. Like I said, US in the 1930s, Japan in 1990s, I was trading JGBs and I remember that. I've seen

that in CGVs now and China now. You're talking about the Buffett indicator, right? And so, but the question Mike is, we're not in the same world we were in 1930. Exactly, it's different this time. No, it's not that it's different this time. There's so much that's structurally changed 1971 and just the sheer amount of money expansion that we have.

Exactly. It's different this time. It's that the entire the whole structure changed. So what happened? I'm the whole structure changed in 1971. It did. So what happened? We had a 100 year event kick in in 20, 20, 20 plus Russians invasion. Ukraine, it was like an 80 year event. But what happened?

We responded with the biggest money pump in history. But Larry wrote about the big pump. We've had it already We've learned the lessons inflation inflation's too high and then we had the lesson lesson. Well, okay. Well, we'll see We know that we need inflation to pay down the debt. That's absolutely We know that okay So right now the fed's on hold partly because inflation's sticking part of that is because the wealth effects too high The same time we're getting the most significant contraction in fiscal stimulus ever by Doge and we're having tariffs Which is a major push on on corporate earnings. All this is lose lose for risk

Yes, it's my point Mike you're entitled to your own opinions, but you're not entitled to your own facts. So let's let's talk some facts back number one Well, okay, Matt Hogan who runs one of the Bitcoin ETFs. Yeah, he has a vested interest in selling Bitcoin ETFs. Yes. Yes, he has a vested interest. I think Matt is telling the truth. And from everything that I've observed, I think this is true. Said that between 30 and 40% of the Bitcoin ETF holdings at its peak were from arbitrageurs who were playing the game against the futures.

Let's understand what happened. The futures were at a stupid premium. They were at a stupid premium for a bunch of reasons, the most important of which is that US firms were not allowed to touch spot or do anything else. And it created, and there was almost certainly some structured products from some demand which were filled and That premium went away. It was guaranteed to go away. I have seen this movie before I have talked about this extensively

I saw it in the 80s in the US stock index arbitrage market and how it went to quantitative firms I could go through the whole history of that if you want I saw it again in Japan in the 90s every single time you have an arbitrage that people think is an infinite money machine, it goes away. And when it goes away, there are structural things that need to be rebalanced. The ETFs rebalanced, fine. To say that institutions have pulled back, the actual institutions have been undeniably increasing, you know, increasing their allocations. And that's what all of them are saying. All the people who are selling the Bitcoin ETFs are saying it.

I showed you there's outflows. I mean the fact is there's outflows. So if you're going to say that I'm not titled to my own facts, the fact is we're seeing outflows in Bitcoin ETFs in the last two months. Yes, and we have because 30 to 40 percent of the Bitcoin ETFs were unsustainable. And so now we're back to that level of sustain. So were the facts wrong? I did. You said I'm not entitled my own facts. Which fact did you say that I was misrepresenting?

You then write the sentence you made after that was thus you said this data Bitcoin ETF down means institutions are done and it's going to go start reversing the other way. That was my everyone and everyone. Okay, so it's your fine. Your facts are fine. It's your opinion. That's wrong. Okay, whatever.

That's what's happening. The current trajectory is the current trajectory. As I pointed out last year, we reached parity in terms of ETFs and a risk adjusted basis with Bitcoin ETFs and gold ETFs. And the lesson I'm trying to teach people who've been in commodities for decades like me is you don't get investors to get too much into Gold ETS over time historically because there's no return. They can get Nvidia, they can get return on the equities.

That's what's happening Bitcoin ETFs. And I've seen it. Except for it's not. Most of the people who buy Bitcoin believe it's somewhere between 90 and 95% undervalued and that's pretty nice return Larry Fink is actually saying he actually said the words He said between five hundred thousand and seven hundred thousand will be fair price in his opinion That's a good opinion and good luck with that one. Yeah, but okay

But you keep mentioning people have a vested interest. Let's talk about John Paulson it was his quote Bitcoin is a limited supply of nothing. Okay, so I can, that's a fact, he said it. Yeah, that's right. Look, Mike, you said that there's thousands and thousands of competitors to Bitcoin, and there are thousands and thousands of competitors to all of these companies here

that are looking to get market share of all the things that they're doing. I mean, there's no other cryptocurrencies up here. There's a reason for that. And Bitcoin is clearly, it has an asset value that people are attaching to it. And it's in the top 10 largest assets in the world for a reason.

And that's not going away. That's only going to keep growing. In my opinion, my opinion, my view is it's gonna have a back up to 10,000 first. Okay well there's another thing that we need to discuss is that when you said we had a hundred year event in 2020 okay I've been so in my in my semi-adult lifetime, I've seen 100 year event in 1987, another one in 1998, another one in 2000, another one in 2001, another one in 2006, another one in 2020.

So all of those events were 100 year events and they happen every couple of months or every couple of years. But let's just focus on the ones that are financial, right? 1987, you had Alan Greenspan tell the market, hey, don't worry, the Fed is here. We're not going to let it collapse. OK, the market stabilized, and they did nothing.

They didn't do any QE, but they did tell the market they would. Flash forward to 1998. 1998, you have the long-term capital management collapse. The absolute, like, this was the epitome of risk-taking beyond risk-taking. And it was so, it was so concentrated in a certain number of investment banks that they were scared to death that Goldman was going to go under. So they had emergency meetings that the New York Fed. And guess who had engineered a bailout for Goldman Sachs? Alan Greenspan. So he said he was going to do it, and then he did it. That is QE. That is literally the Fed engineering the saving of financial institutions so they don't have, they can, they can hold back or limit the economic fallout, right, the financial fallout. So here's my opinion.

2006 and you have Ben Bernanke come in in 2006 and they print a trillion dollars to save the market. So it's been happening in stages and the last stage was when we printed another, when Powell and company printed another five trillion dollars okay so it's been happening these days we're gonna save the market we do save the market we save the market with QE then we save the market with massive QE where's the next print where's the next print is it gonna be after you gotta have are they just gonna step away and say you know what no they will they will you're missing a prerequisite every single one of those had at least a bottle maybe one third of 25 per correction in beta,

which means it's S&P 500 first. Wait, the point is we did that. We had that correction. The Fed saved us. Flation's still sticking their telness right now. They're done. And we have the biggest shift in fiscal and monetary discombobulation. So my point is you're going to be right, but we're missing one iteration.

10% is not going to get, they even said 10% is not enough. They don't care and they're not going to eat. So do you believe that we're going to go back to the 1940s, 1950s where we take 20, 30 years the markets recovery, because I don't think that this economy can sustain that. And I think that- Well, that's the whole point. In the lessons of history, this is a fact. Once you get to two times GDP, the stock market is the economy. Unless you print so much money, two times GDP just doesn't matter.

They have to. Exactly. But what happens is when you go down first. So maybe go back to normal averages. Okay, we're not going to go to one. I point out maybe one and a half percent. Guess what? The low just a few years ago is 1.5 times GDP. Okay, I hear you. And I agree with so much that you say, Mike. I really do. I really do. But I think that the only problem that I see here is that if you pull up the chart of the S&P, so let's pull up the chart of the S&P of what happened back in 2020. And here's the problem is if you're trying to time this thing Good luck at timing this because you see this. Can you guys see this chart? You got it. Perfect Okay, you're gonna time this. Okay, great. Yeah, you had a massive drawdown, right? As you shown the same chart Okay, you have a massive drawdown and then what happened look at where we went from here, right? from 3300 to almost 6,300, almost 100% return. And the biggest money pumping history learned, less than inflation went up.

Correct. From the peak, not the trough. So exactly. Past performance is indicative future returns, is what you're telling us. But the problem here, Mike, is this is just a matter of a few weeks. Look at this. How are you going to find Okay, well, remember, you're comparing to That's the problem, is that, is I think, here's, here's my, here's how, here's what I tell my, my, the people that I talk to on my newsletter and all that, okay, you can stop presenting, Scott. So here's what I, here's I tell people in my newsletter and everything. I say, it's smart to be diversified, right? I think that that's important to be diversified. But you do have to be exposed. I just don't, I don't want people to hear

what we're saying and say, Oh, my God, I get out of them, get out of the market completely. Because that's where people get left behind when they're not exposed to risk assets. And it's because of our monetary system and our central banks that have created a situation where you have to be exposed. You have to take risks, or else you're going to be left behind. You're going to get left behind on that 20%, 30%, 40% of inflation that happens in two years. And suddenly, houses are now $2 million instead of $600,000.

And now how do you buy one? Because I wasn't exposed. I had cash. And now my cash is worth one? Because I wasn't exposed, I had cash. And now my cash is worth literally half to a third of what it was. Completely agree with you. No one disputed that. My point is you're supposed to be selling when you're young.

Remember, I'm a strategist. I'm not, you focus on managing money and helping people get wealthy. I'm pointing out, this is where I think markets are going. So it's not top apples and oranges. This is where I think markets are going. So it's not top apples and oranges. This is where I think markets are going. How they get there and how people perform, it's up to them. And I like, you know, remember I've been most, Scott knows most of my history with him, I've been quite bullish Bitcoin. The world has changed on November 11th. It changed.

And now I think most risk factors are going down, still quite bullish gold. And I think that Bitcoin to gold ratio is more likely to go to 10 than say back here at a high around 40. Sounds like another bet coming. But look, there are three points here that I wanna make. Number one, correlation is not causation. And beta, when you say 10,000,

look, the reason that people look at it is, yeah, Bitcoin could go to 10,000 if it's gonna fail If Bitcoin is gonna go to essentially zero and the entire crypto industry is gonna crawl up and die which is clearly a non zero probability event Then Bitcoin will go to 10,000 absent that is it a non zero Probability that does going goes to zero. Of course, it's an effect. It's a higher non zero probability So that's my point is Bitcoin has a much higher correlation to all the other cryptos than it does to most other. No, actually, I think

there's a zero chance that does go. Okay, but look, I don't want to focus on the left tail of the bad side. This is a left tail event that all crypto goes to zero to me is vanishingly small. It's non-zero, but vanishingly great. But let's correlation causation. So you talk about beta all the time and it always pisses me off. And the reason it pisses me off is because you say you average in that period of time when the S&P doubled, Bitcoin went up by a factor of what Scott? What was from the bottom to the top?

Oh, 17X and 20 in March 2020. So your 3X beta is partially because that when S&P doubled, Bitcoin went up 17 times. It is just as explosive, in fact, more explosive on the upside than it is on the downside. It was. Do not forget that like literally 10 days out of the year is where you make all of your money in bitcoins. And so the point is you can't, your 10,000 is based upon the stock market corrects by 20% and therefore Bitcoin is going to correct by 60%. That's what you're saying.

And what I'm telling you is that is not the way that beta is not, if you manage your portfolio based on that sort of beta, and you're a market maker or risk asset, you'd be fired. You literally can't do that. You have to understand what's happening. If you look different times, Bitcoin has been negatively correlated to the stock market too. It tended to go up because they're both correlated to liquidity. Second fact, you said Doge is gonna be the biggest fiscal contraction. What a load of happy horseshit. First of all, Elon himself said he thinks that he'll be

lucky to get a billion dollars in cost savings, but he thinks he can dramatically cut regulation. You had the scent on the entire circuit of all the places talking about, they have changed their narrative They people need to understand. Yes. There's a lot of ways. Yes, they think they can save some of it But it's mostly despite all the protesters who are getting their asses kicked by shorting Tesla and I'm glad to see it but Despite all the protests that they are looking to deregulate That is the focus and and by the way for those who watched the show a long time

What have I been saying would be their their focus deregulation to free the private market But they're they know they can't cut that much from the fiscal deficit He wants to bring long rates down and that would do it But there's this thing called unfunded liabilities that james and I often talk about we haven't in a while So we have a 36 trillion dollar deficit that James and I often talk about, we haven't in a while. So we have a $36 trillion deficit. We have debt. We have a deficit that maybe they could bring,

get us to a balanced budget. That would be the most ambitious thing and that would require enormous growth. But that $36 trillion debt isn't going anywhere. Moreover, we have social security and Medicare, which they know they need to reform, but don't wanna touch it because it's a political firestorm and that's At least another hundred and thirty billion or 130 trillion. Excuse me

It's just staggering numbers if you go out enough years There is monetary printing is going to have to happen The only way out of this the only way out is hyper growth And there is no way in a hyper growth scenario that Bitcoin is going to, that the beta won't increase as opposed to decrease until it gets to a level of gold. That's the point here. The denominator matters. Money is, several billion dollars is going to go into the world of extra fiat money,

including the US and Germany and Europe. So I'm just pointing out in terms of gold, Bitcoin has already matched gold in terms of ETFs and that's my point. You're comparing apples to oranges. Gold is, I mean you can store it on your body, I mean it's beautiful, women like it and now you're talking about just a pure, highly speculative digital asset. So please, I'm pointing out the facts that in ETFs, it's already reached parity. I showed that. I showed it last year and since I've done it, it's been a great trade. If you've got 100,000, you sold it. Okay, remember, I'm a strategist. I don't give investment. I'm like, this is where markets are going. You handle what clients are going to do. I'm just pointing out there's been a few times in history, it's better to be out of risk assets. Cryptos are the riskiest. They're way overpriced. There's high correlation. There's unchecked supply,

and it reminds me of Fantasia as the sorcerer's apprentice. It's just, yeah, Bitcoin's still so different, I get it. I hear you, but let's do, you said women like it, and it's there. First of all, the reason the gold ETF to the gold ETF is a terribly bad comparison is- Well, it's worked so far. No, no, no, but understand.

It helped me solidify that view that was peaked at 100 grand. I'm sorry, I only dropped 30%. 1% of the gold supply in the world is held by Bitcoin ETF. That's my point there. It's microscopic by comparison. In India, they hold the physical gold. In Russia, in the central banks. They hold physical gold We now know that people are worried that the physical gold isn't really there

It's different when you talk about jewelry Remember platinum is much rarer than gold and for our lifetime only in the last only in the last decade Platinum used to be dramatically more expensive than gold. In fact, you know Yeah, we'd have the platinum tier above the gold tier except for now. It's one-third the price Why it has nothing to do with it being pretty it has everything to do with its monetary value And you can't keep ignoring that the monetary value is there and ETFs are not the only way to buy gold So here's what I'll point out The 200 day moving average of the Bloomberg Galaxy crypto and nexus rolled over to setting down down to me

That's a bear market the 200 day moving average of VIX Alton and X is heading up to me That's a bull market good luck on risk assets in that environment when you have a and when you have a paradigm shift in a government Me to me what's happening with our government is we're being run by business sharks against the rest of the world who are bureaucratic Autocratic leaders or let's look at I, they just don't get business like US, our leaders right now, Musk and Les, obviously Trump and Lutnick. This is, I'm reading the latest book about it now. It's just, this is a bear market right now, just getting started early days. And I wish anybody who's overweight risk assets, good luck. To me,

that's overall, you're supposed to be selling rallies and risk assets like Bitcoin and stocks and buying risk off assets and dips until proven wrong. That's the way that things have turned and there's a good reason for a dip turn. I suspect that come the fall, I might actually agree with you in terms of what's going to happen with risk assets just because of seasonality, but we'll see. But all the hysteria, if you did nothing but we'll see but the the the all the hysteria if you did nothing but took the other side of the mainstream media on

their hysteria you'd be you'd be very wealthy right now and right now the mainstream media is saying what you're saying which tells me I want to be a contrarian in terms of risk assets despite actually understanding what you're saying and believing it I just think Bitcoin is a very different thing and I think that those very smart people that you just talked about who are gonna Truly understanding what you're saying and believing it. I just think Bitcoin is a very different thing. And I think that those very smart people that you just talked about who are going to alchemy the rest of the world are the ones who are conditioning people to understand that Bitcoin could 5x or 10x from here and nothing else needs to change.

No, it didn't. It's the best performing asset in history. It's the most widely known. It's print on every screen. You see it everywhere. That's my point. It's a known known. Why was Amazon do so well after 2002? Because everybody hated it. Lehman said it was going to go under. Who went under? That point is it's never happened in human

history. Let's go there. It's already had its outperformance. Pull up a chart of Amazon someone since 2000. You're going to see what happened. That's my point David. Think about what happened in 2001. That's when Lehman suggested it was going to go under. That's my point is once it gets in the human nature that this is the best thing in next slice spread, it's trades over.

That's where Bitcoin is now. Amazon was widely hated 25 years ago. I'm aware, but now look what happened in the succeeding 20 some odd years. Okay, so here's the lesson of trading pits. I started in the trading pits in Chicago in the 80s and everybody wants to be a trader. The lesson I learned is only one out of 100 make it, but everybody wants it.

It's just the way it works is it's not, it's already priced in the human nature is completely against it. And then I pointed out all the crypt. There's only, well, you know, you'd look at, again, this unchecked supply is definitely not a good, good indication for the price of a space and bitcoins just yet so one it's leader but it's one of the many Amazon trying to

find those market caps it says I'm chat GPT can be wrong but saying gold ETFs totals approximately 306 billion and be Bitcoin ETFs topped at 129. So when did they reach parity? So on a risk adjusted basis. So it was with this way, if you're buying three times, and I point this a while ago, Bitcoin typically creates three times volatility of gold, you're saying they reach parity. And to anybody who buys it, obviously it's for the hour, but if you're an investor, an ETF investor, if you're buying, you know, selling 100 units of gold to buy 100 units of Bitcoin, that's really adding to your risk.

And that's not what you do. You'd sell 100 units of gold and maybe buy what 30 units of Bitcoin for the same kind of risk. And I guess the market cap of gold itself as a physical asset is nine or 10 times that of Bitcoin. Yeah, Dave points it all the time. Okay, so you know, you guys didn't want to do this but this is so obvious that it's insane, right? Hold on a minute. Where are we?

So Dave, let's do this. Why don't you pick up a chart of AOL or Netscape? They were supposed to do great. That's my point. You can't pick up the winner because it was the winner. It was one out of the thousand. Bitcoin's already been the winner. This is the key point of the humidity. As a country I'm viewing it. The AOL Netscape had major operational missteps. Not 2000. I would view Bitcoin as tech. Do we see this screen, Scott? I would view Bitcoin as tech, not as an individual tech company.

Yes, I do. Okay. So Amazon, Lehman says it's going down here. You see down here where my cursor's wagging around? That was the time to buy. Yeah, it was the time to buy. Yeah it was a time to buy and 10 years later it was here. It had a little bit more than doubled or like tripled. What's it done since then? Don't tell me that that was the time to sell because people here feel really stupid. The The time to buy something is when the professionals

say to sell it. That's the point, you missed the point. But that was the time to buy. You can't make the argument, Dave, that, I mean. And every professional, so many professionals have been saying to sell Bitcoin over the last few weeks. I've almost lost count. Yeah, I like that argument, but I mean, to be fair,

Amazon also was like a online book retailer that took over the world for everything. So like it did change fundamentally, I mean, to be fair, Amazon also was like a online book retailer that took over the world for everything. So like it did change fundamentally, I think, which is the reason at that time, if you had a thesis that selling books alone online was not going to be the biggest business in the world, you could kind of call it a sell. Sure, I understand that. But even if you look at the chart of Amazon, which was particularly amusing is you see this massive drawdown in 2022 right? Yeah, you know in 2023 which we've made it which all of it has been made back I mean, it's it's it accentuated with every time Mike talks about you know, beta. This is beta right? Amazon is massive beta

that's Your dad doesn't matter arguments here, right? You know, we can talk about the value argument or we can talk about the beta argument, but stop kind of, you know, you got to be pinned down to... Stop pointing out facts! You're not entitled to your own facts! The beta of Amazon is high. They have profits, Bitcoin has no profits. Bitcoin is no profits. It's just the world's greatest store of value. It's literally... It was greatest store of value. It's literally it has been It's not a store value when it trades three times the volatility of gold and treasuries and that's not a store value That's a speculative digital asset. Here's where here's where here's where Amazon and Bitcoin are similar

Amazon nobody believed that people put their credit cards online to buy shit from a company that they hadn't heard of right? okay, and then that was a strong they see hadn't heard of. Right. Okay. And then that was a strong, they see change of, of, of people's understanding of technology and their belief in it. It's the same thing with Bitcoin. People do not believe that this, this Beanie Baby, this Tulip, this Ponzi scheme is going to be worth anything because it's not, you can't hold it. To quote Peter Schiff, You can't hold it like gold. My gold watch, he shows me on the stage. I have a gold watch. I can wear it. I don't care. It doesn't matter to me. It can be seized at the border. It can be taken from you. Somebody can come up and just rip it off your wrist, especially because you're, you know, just little Peter Schiff. But the thing is, you know, people are starting to understand this better. And it's, and it is a technology, like my wife likes to point out, it's not, it is, it is not a technology

company. And so as people get to understand that better, then they're, they're seeing how it is different than all the other cryptocurrencies that you're quoting. Now, I think if I understand correctly what you're saying, Mike, to be completely fair, and I don't want to put words in your mouth, but I want to understand what you're saying. And I think what you're saying is you understand Bitcoin, you understand the technology, but it has all this competition from thousands and thousands and thousands of other cryptocurrencies that people don't understand, and that's taking market share away from them. Am I right on that, or do you just believe that Bitcoin is just one of them? Well, it's all, it is one of them. We can't dispute that. There was Bitcoin first, and

now there's 13 million similar type of cryptocurrencies. You don't think it's any different from any of the other ones? Of course it is, but every one of them that was created, some of them were supposed to be better. Remember Litecoin and Bitcoin's goal, silver is to gold. The point of is, remember how it was- Some of them do have use case. There's no question about it.

Solana, they have use case and they have their technology is important for what they're doing. But that's a different proposition than a digital asset. It's completely different. And digital asset can become currency. But if the other thing is before just before Mike jumps in, but my view on the comparison to the tech bubble or any of the others is that Bitcoin is the market and all of the other cryptos are the pets.com or the Netscapes or the AOLs but also the Amazons and the Googles. There will be a few massive winners, the Slana, that come out of it but Bitcoin itself is not Amazon. Bitcoin is the market leading that dip

down before raging on again. So like Bitcoin is the index to me dip down before raging on again. So like Bitcoin is the index to me. That's the way I've always framed it in my mind, not specific to this conversation, which is why I think there's kind of everybody's on the same page, but it's just whether Bitcoin is one of them or Bitcoin is different.

I mean, Mike, you were jumping in, but you know. Well, I'm really enjoying the discourse I mean, Mike, you were jumping in, but, you know. Well, I'm really enjoying the discourse in the conversation. The main reason we have in this discourse is McGlone got bearish, okay? Sorry, because remember, I'm the only one here who has no vested interest. I'm a completely, I can't. I'm not allowed to trade, not allowed a lot of positions. This is where I think markets are going so I really appreciate your views

They helped hone mine the key thing that really helps me is one in my whole history of having done this with clients since the 80s Is when like I said when you pick up you have a great idea and everybody says you're an idiot that almost always works When everybody agrees with you don't that's why I really am concerned about this whole space It's the macro and I point out the facts that here's the fact is when the crypto space goes down, Bitcoin goes down. Is it leading or lagging? It doesn't matter. They all go down together. And I'm pointing out the crypto space has rolled over for a good reason. It's heading lower. It's a bear market. You're supposed to sell rallies in bear markets. Maybe it's different this time. Maybe something will shift to go up. To me, the macro is very bearish for all risk is to Kenya going lower.

It's not just my view, it's some of my colleagues who have been spot on in equities forever. That's why we're going to get the test. The key thing I've been pointing out forever is Bitcoin is leveraged data. It's a leveraged stock market and it's performing like that. Certainly for the last year on a one-year basis, it's up 32% and gold is up 39%. SB500 500 10%. Okay, I just want to make two points first, if you stop with the leverage beta stuff that, you know,

and you basically said, if you had said, I'm bearish, I'm Mike, and here's my reasons, I think Bitcoin could go between 50 and 60,000 on this down leg, because we understand that when on on the downside, the beta is not likely to continue to be as stable Then James and I would probably disagree with you But you wouldn't see the vitriol that that we're saying because what you're talking about is

If you will all you have to do is look at the hash rate of the Bitcoin network It's one of the most parabolic stock of things in ever and you understand that that is real real money Backing the Bitcoin network, which is now 5.5x where it was. And real energy. I'm sorry. So you have 5.5 times where it was at the top. You have over 10 times the power in the network when Bitcoin was last at 10,000. Bitcoin didn't get down to 10,000 when FTX caused billions and billions in force force selling where people had to sell and there were still buyers back then pre etf pre you know being in the strategic reserve pre the government the federal government's treasury secretary supporting it it's just it's an insanely it's

an insane tail event scenario that assumes trump loses in the midterm gets impeached in two years or the public is losing the midterm gets impeached in two years or the public is losing the midterm gets impeached in two years And you get a a Elizabeth Warren presidency in four years. That's literally what Bitcoin 10,000 looks like That is the only thing so it is just that level of absurdity Which is why we're arguing we can have this conversation where you can say well Bitcoin just like the rest of stock markets You're correct. 20% and the beta will probably be one at that point. We probably wouldn't argue. Well, I mean, I'd argue, but I wouldn't say that. But so that's thing number one. Thing number two, you keep ignoring. Dr. Seuss, thing number one.

That's right. Thing one and thing two, you keep ignoring the fundamental reason why we're bullish on Bitcoin. It has to do with the fact that it's underpriced relative to the money supply. And the fact is that denominator, everything we talk about, the denominator is going up. There's more dollars, more euros, more yen, more remnibde, more, you know, or one or whatever we want, whatever you wanna call it,

there are more fiat dollars being printed and printed. And every time, and this is something that, you know, whether it's Lin Alden or Lawrence we want, whatever you want to call it, there are more fiat dollars being printed and printed. And every time, and this is something that, you know, whether it's Lynn Alden or Lawrence or whoever, they will all tell you the notion of pushing on a string is coming to fruition. You need more debt created, more fiscal stimulus created to get every single dollar of GDP.

And the only thing they can do is pump the stock market and create the wealth effect. The only thing that this debt is pump the stock market and create the wealth effect. The only thing that this debt is doing is creating the wealth effect to do it and governments need it. So Trump and Bissett may say they don't care about the stock market, but believe me, they care if the wealth effect dries up and reverses and all of a sudden their stock receipts going down and we get into a vicious circle. So yeah, they don't care about 10% here, 10% there, but look what happened. We had 10% down and what did

they do? They, he sent them all out to the talk show circuits, all of them. Yeah. It's not worried. Don't worry. The target, they're, they're going to be targeted tariffs or broad tariffs. The problem is, is that if you believe that they can kick the can down the road, which, you know, for, for for for another you know whatever years until we can actually get reform so that we might be able to get real business started and get rid of the bureaucracy, you know then that's what they're trying to do. I mean the best data that I've seen basically suggests somewhere around every dollar spent on federal employees cuts about a dollar 25

From the you know from the you know from the overall gdp relative to what would happen in the private workforce That number is probably higher right now would be my guess because that's that's a that's an that's a blended average And there are lots of federal employees that are actually necessary Right. And so what you're seeing here in the media is if he cuts 10 people and one of them Was doing something that was important, they scream about the one and they ignore the nine. And so you're going to see this play out. I mean, this stuff is crazy. You know what's going on now. I mean, you're talking about Tesla dealerships being firebombed because Elon Musk, who is literally giving up his own time, making less money and people are driving Teslas are being targeted. This is

the left. So what do you think of BYD versus Tesla? If you're going to bring up Tesla, what do you think of BYD versus Tesla? It fits right into Jeff Boo's version of rapidly advancing technology. I think that what's going to happen is very simple. We're going to reverse repo the Chinese. I think the battery technology that BYD has, which is the five minute supercharger, is going to make itself into gigafactories that Tesla is going to be producing and we'll end up with a pretty damn good car here. Right now, we are actually being protectionist against superior technology because technology goes in a leapfrog. Tesla built the gigafactories on old lithium technology and the chargers are going to have to improve and they're going to and BYD is leading that and people in the US are delusional if they think they're the only ones who can innovate. And BYD is leading that. And people in the US are delusional if they think they're the only ones who can innovate.

There are things that will happen. But I do think that you're right there. I think it's important. And by the way, that's actually very bullish for Tesla. I mean, I found out something that I thought was interesting. I have a why. And I was talking to one of the Tesla sales guys who was really interesting, who told me,

oh, don't buy the new one, because there's no difference really. I mean, yeah, there's 70% new parts and you can talk about it. But what he said to me that's fascinating is the one thing that wears out in a Tesla is the battery. And so it was 20,000 to replace it battery pack in, you know, at the time that I bought the car three years ago, today it's 8,000. And Tesla's internal prediction,

it'll be 4,000 to replace the battery pack with a superior one in four years. But think about that. I might very well be able to have a brand new car or one that because the car in four years for $4,000. And that's the thing about electric cars. They're getting better and better and better. Our grid needs to be where you're going to hear about more and more in the US over the next five years is how much we're going to need to spend on the grid.

Oh, by the way, guess how they're going to have to stabilize those that that grid, what's going to be the single biggest thing that's going to be used to stabilize the grid that we're going to need to introduce. Can I answer? Yeah, please. Bitcoin. There you go. And so that's, that's my closing rant of the day. I think that he is like, all I really want to say is I agree with a lot of what you're saying, but that beta is not stable to the downside unless Bitcoin fails And I don't know it will fail the Bitcoin gold ratio is the same as it was four years ago. It's at 29

I'm sticking with gold particularly as we head towards a recession which I think is gonna happen. I think gold will outperform Bitcoin I don't know for the next it's done for last year Maybe next two three, maybe five years. But if we head towards this recession, this highly speculative digital action, I think it's gonna underperform even in the money pump versus the old rock. And that's what's been happening.

That's the current trends, massive inflows in gold ETFs, massive outflows in Bitcoin ETFs, not massive, but just getting started potentially as people are realizing that what they bought was leveraged beta. I mean my So today gold is slightly up Well, I know but we see a lot of these days The reason gold is up on a day when risk assets are ripping is because a large part of what they're ripping is from liquidity

And liquidity will ultimately go into gold also So beta is unstable. That's all I want to say. Whether it's a day, week, we could go back and we could do this under lots of time horizons. Beta is unstable. That's all I want to say here. You need to worry about the causation. As people believe there will be more liquidity, everything goes up.

It's the forever market. Okay. So then again, it's about title to your facts. That's an opinion. It's good to market. Okay, so then again, it's about title to your facts. That's an opinion. It's good to have that what people are going to believe. I'm telling the facts of when stock market corrects and goes down from the most expensive ever in US history. Everything goes down, particularly risk assets that trade three times the volatility of the stock market. And I just use beta to refer to it.

That's just lessons of history. Maybe it's different this time. Yeah, maybe next week we can touch on the fact that we believe that we've been in recession and the stock market has been hitting all time highs despite that, why? And it all comes back to liquidity and we'll talk about that next week, I guess. I can't believe we didn't get to talk about the fact that MicroStrategy now owns over 500,000 Bitcoin.

There are 500,000. That actually is a bear indicator to me. I want to be clear. So we'll talk about that. And then the Strife offering is a head scratcher to me too. So maybe we'll talk about that next week because it's literally called perpetual strife by the way, which is just unbelievable. But that one, this one's leaving my head scratching.

And I do want to talk about some point when enough is enough. I also want to talk about that was one of the best hours of my show ever any show I've done one of the best hours of my life. That was so much fun listening to you guys argue participating in it. This show should have you know it's got 2000 people on YouTube watching of course more on audio but it should have 2 million. It's you guys are the best. Absolutely incredible. I don't know how it's not 2 million but maybe one day will be the best. Absolutely incredible. I don't know how it's not 2 million, but maybe one day we'll be the all in podcast because I think it's well deserved

with the three of you guys. Absolutely incredible. Thank you for always sharing your opinions and for being one of the few places on the planet where people can actually be adults and disagree on things and be civil and friends. So I think it's a good lesson for people everywhere. We gotta go guys.

Thank you so much, James, Mike, Dave Dave, everybody give them a follow. See you guys soon next week.