The Wolf Of All Streets - Is Gary Gensler About To Get Destroyed? | What's Next For Bitcoin?

Episode Date: September 27, 2023

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Gary Gensler is testifying today in front of the United States House of Representatives Committee on Financial Services at 10 a.m. It's not just about crypto, and we've already seen his prepared remarks. But the exciting part should be the questioning, because this is the Patrick McHenry, Warren Davidson, Tom Emmer crew that loves to dunk on Gensler almost as much as we do. And at the same time, they're pushing him to get a spot Bitcoin ETF approved, even as the SEC rejects or kicks the can down the road on two of them, including ARK, which they didn't need to give an answer on until I believe November 11th. Not great news that they're already outright kicking the can down the road when people were expecting potentially to see an approval soon. Is Gary going to take a backyard beating today? I think so. Let's talk about it. I've

got Dan Gunsberg. And of course, at the end, Texas West Capitol, Christopher Ings. Let's go. what is up everybody i'm scott melker also known as the wolf of all streets before we get started please subscribe to the channel hit that like button that was my single most butchered intro ever. And actually maybe my only butchered intro ever. That was fun. Good times. Yeah, guys, I see people asking what time is the Gensler show? Will it be live? It's at 10 a.m. Eastern Standard Time today. But we have his prepared remarks in advance. We were going to live stream it actually on Crypto Town Hall on Twitter spaces. But since we have the questions in advance, we know that he's going to talk about a whole lot of other things. And we thought maybe we'll just jump to the questions when he actually starts to take a beating there. I've got Gunny here today. Dan Gunsberg, what's up, man? How are you?

Doing well. How are you, Scott? I am. I'm doing well. Real quick, I'm just going to bring this up and then read it so we have something to talk about. Gensler testimony, crypto enforcement actions driven by wide-ranging noncompliance. Like I said, we have his statement here. And most of it is just the same sort of like circle jerk, verbal masturbation. Is Huckster in there or no? No Huckster. But like I said, this is mostly about like, A, the SEC has been protecting people for 90 years.

We have to update for the challenges of our time, our efficiency and competition and blah, blah, blah. But then he gets into this integrities and disclosures, but then he does get in specifically more to crypto, talking about the two things that need to be updated, which is basically for AI and for crypto. Real quick, I'm just going to read the crypto part so you guys don't have to watch Gensler and puke in your own I'm just going to read the crypto part so you guys don't have to watch Gensler and puke in your own mouth. There's nothing about the crypto asset securities markets that suggests that investors and issuers

are less deserving of the protection of our securities laws. Congress could have said in 1933 or 34 that the securities laws applied only to stocks and bonds, yet Congress included a long list of 30 plus items in the definition of a security, including the term investment contract. As I previously said, without prejudging any one token, the vast majority of crypto tokens likely meet the investment contract test. Probably true, by the way. Given that most

crypto tokens are subject to the securities law, it follows that most crypto intermediaries have to comply with securities laws as well. These laws have been on the books for decades. Section 515A and 17AB of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 require that intermediaries act as securities exchanges, brokers and dealers, and clearing agencies are subject to the securities laws and must register or satisfy requirements for an exemption. Given this industry's wide ranging noncompliance with the securities laws, it's not surprising that we've seen many problems in these markets. We've seen this story before. It's reminiscent of what we had in the 1920s before the federal securities laws were put in place. He had to throw us back

to 1920. Thus, we have brought a number of enforcement actions, some settled and some in litigation to hold wrongdoers accountable and promote investor protection. The SEC also has addressed the crypto security markets through rulemaking. We issued a reopening release that reiterated the applicability of existing rules to platforms that trade crypto asset securities, including so-called DeFi systems. So-called DeFi. We're going to talk about that again. This release also provided supplemental information for systems that would be included in a new proposed exchange definition. While our current investment advisor custody rule already applies to crypto funds and securities, our proposal updating it would cover all crypto assets and enhance the protections that qualified custodians provide. These are just two examples of the rules we propose that touch the crypto markets while i'm

happy to discuss the sec's work i will not be able to comment on any active ongoing litigation i feel like i did that better than gensler um nothing new here really he doesn't need by the way he does not need to read now now that we know why even do it we we preempted him. I mean, listen, is there anything in your mind that's new there at all? Nothing new. I'm going to try to take, just for sake of discussion, a neutral position here. Not necessarily on the way that he has gone about things, which I do not agree with. Does this industry, has this industry,

especially as we've gotten to a market bottom, shown some of its, uprooted some of the weed, so to speak? Have we shown our ass? Yeah. Has it shit out quite a few problematic projects and people? Absolutely. Absolutely. Does it need some form of coverage, regulation, education, protection?

Like, absolutely. Do you fit a square peg into a round hole? Absolutely not. Right. Absolutely. Do you fit a square peg into a round hole? Absolutely not. Step one, you have to understand what the protect, you know, people that, that from, from fraud and from scam. Like, I don't disagree with that. It's the way they're going that they, that he's gone about this. And, and maybe if we were looking at a glass half full, it's just the tools that he has to work with. But, um, I think from a PR standpoint, it's been an absolute fucking disaster for the chairman. I hope going

forward... We lost him. He's back. Am I back? Yeah, you're back. That was weird. Never seen that. I just hope that we do a... The pressure over time from the Tom Ammers and everybody else in the world is going to force some type of positive change towards creating some type of guidance and guidelines that are a little bit more prescriptive and also work within the context of what the innovations of this industry are.

Yeah, I love what you said about it being kind of an unmitigated disaster for the chairman, because four to six months ago, we would have said this is an unmitigated disaster for crypto, what's coming from the chairman. And what you just said echoes what I've been saying here over and over again, is that the pendulum swung way way too far and the anti-crypto army and the Genslers and Warrens, they just pushed so far that it became wildly actually unpopular. And now I think generally positive for the industry. It sounds crazy that I would say that this regulatory push could be positive for the industry, but so many people are angry at them. So many have pushed back and they keep losing in the courts. And I think this is one of those, if you're going to go through the, then they fight you phase,

you need to actually fight back. Right. And we're giving, being given that opportunity. And to that end, I mean, nobody better than Coinbase to be fighting back. I think,

you know, at the front line. Absolutely. I mean, they could not have picked a better opponent, so to speak. Maybe is that the right word in this context um i don't know but uh yeah for in terms of the industries uh you know in terms of an industry leader and uh somebody who

has is heavily pot committed on u.s growth of uh of crypto and look man like they're like part of me is like okay it's the u.s government like it's uh it's you know it's unfallible but like on the other side of the equation like coinbase ripple like these are these are also 800-pound gorillas. And most of these things end in some type of settlement. Like what I know from Coinbase is they have a war chest that is like, it's pretty, pretty deep. And we'll understand it. I mean, Brian Armstrong is a principled human being. You got to give him tons of credit for what he's done. What happens with the government shutdown?

Does the SEC just, like, do they go offline? Yeah, we talked about it yesterday. I dug into it a bit. I can't tell you exactly, but it would be very skeleton at the SEC. So there would basically be, they won't be proving any ETFs clearly or even reviewing any proposals. And I think they keep the litigators going on these because there's court dates,

but in general, they go back to skeleton staff. So basically it would just be a massive pause. Yeah. What about also, you know, how long has this been going on with ETFs now? 2014 was the first time that the Winklevii, since they're like cacti, since the Winklevii applied for the first Bitcoin spot ETF. So going on nine years? Yeah, we're going to be on, I think we're going to be fully 10 years, you know, mid year next year i wonder how many uh lawyers who have worked who are

working for the sec that have been on this on these cases whether it's etf approval or whether it's trying uh you know large like ripple coinbase type of cases if the government shuts down again are they going to throw their hands up and go, go to the private sector? And when that happens, like from the sec side, they they're like, I've heard this from lawyers.

There's always this thing of like, it's like somewhat of a war of attrition also, where when you get into these things and they last years, lawyers in the public sector generally don't make their entire career out of working in the public sector. They work in the public sector to understand the rules and then they get they make their real money their life their the money that their generational wealth comes from it's a job interview for a five million dollar a year uh job that's uh latham chatham walk-ins at winston strong at uh At Dukins, at Winston-Strawn, at Dentons. And Bartholomew, Winthrop, and Poindexter.

At Duke and Duke. Duke and Duke, correct. They go to Duke and Duke. Yeah, I mean, I tend to agree that these guys are going to obviously cycle through. But one thing I found interesting in that statement as I just reread it was, obviously, I said to you, we're going to talk about the DeFi part. The only things that he specifically mentioned outside of a general crypto sort of blanket was DeFi, right? So like, is this them being dismissive? This is then they laugh at you and then it's going to be then they fight you? Do you think that DeFi can come out of this unscathed? And so the kind of speech you gave at the beginning, are they fair to go after DeFi?

Because right now there's just so many exploits and problems in that market that it's very risky. I don't think that the exploits are all in defy i think that it it runs in the c5 context it runs in defy like yeah i think true defy is unscammable you know theoretically uh but i think that look i i think that it's tricky because again it's like it's it's it's early days it's early days from from the regulatory standpoint if they're going to take a a very um like throw the baby with out the bath water stance on defy like the u.s is completely fucked in the crypto context and um it's not to say that these rules you know this is these aren't the 10 commandments they're not like they're not written in stone like it it turns over like you so much of this again i go back to this like is it like a war of attrition

like where like you need it it may need to turn over a full generation to make these things change. But like the immersion that the generation that is even younger than, than myself, you know, and, um, you mean the young guys like us, there's people younger than us. I mean, like the 30 year olds, 20 year olds. Yes. You know, like the 45 year olds, 46 year olds too. Yeah. And I think that, you know, seeing them come into, into positions, given that they even want to serve in politics or serve in, you know, in regulatory bodies to affect positive change. I think you may just need to see that it may take another few years. Eventually it's going to catch up. It's just like, it's like, I don't know, it's like immigration in the United States. Like, you know, the United States was actually built and created for to be this ever changing type of, of, of society. Right. And, and that it's kind of the beauty of of how it was created and uh you know i think that the financial system in the u.s was potentially created for that same purpose

and you know all when there's ever been the periods where there's heavily supporting uh innovation uh you've seen the u.s move forward and like and kind of retain its hegemony and it's obviously lost it obviously the the fall of the roman empire memes are are flying everywhere um and heard the words roman empire again i'd be fine i'm totally fine exactly um but yeah like are they being dismissive of it absolutely i think i think that they just see the the dark sides of it and not the not the advantages of it not in creating a more inclusive landscape and kind of like getting back to the first principles of what we all came here to do in the first place and not apparently not everybody because there's you know

there's plenty of of like gensler's not wrong there's plenty of hucksters out there whatever the fucking word he uses. But, um, Gensler was clearly like, it's like he looks at the great depression and watch his boardwalk empire or something. And that's where he gets his verbiage. It's unbelievable. I'm surprised he doesn't talk with that.

Like nasally voice. Listen to your, Hey, you're all securities. Hey. So, um, but yeah,

I think that we're going to, uh, just going to take like time is our time is our best friend here. And that, all right, well, that listen, so, but yeah, I think that we're going to just going to take time as our best friend here. All right. Well, listen, but you're building DeFi and you live in the United States. So I always come back to this with you, but you have more insight, I think, than arguably anyone into what it's like to have a presence in this. I am a contributor and a creator of infrastructure, of DeFi infrastructure. We don't, we, you know, we, I, like us as a foundation

and as a community do not serve the US or OFAC blacklisted. I'm unserved. We fully encourage any platform. Like we do not build front ends. We just create the infrastructure underneath. And we fully encourage every platform that launches on top of Hero Network into its liquidity to take all the necessary precautions around. Dude, his lawyer is in the headphones, by the way, if you guys couldn't hear. He's right in there.

I've been at this for a long time. It's so ridiculous. It's the harsh reality of it. And if it, if it means allowing, you know, lowering the barrier of, of simply building infrastructure, like this is like, you can't like, you know, somebody builds a basement, the, you know, full of cement and like the house on top of it catches on fire. Like you're not blaming the guy that poured the foundation. So like,

I, we just, it's, it's very crazy that we have to do that. Like, I mean, the amount of things that we go through to keep things out of the United States is,

is, is remarkable given that the whole goal of everything we're doing is eventually is setting it on a path towards decentralization and, and full, you know, governance and everything. And that that's where, that's where it's all heading. Like, what I would love to see is a, you know, in DeFi, is you have some type of like safe harbor, period, where a team like it, like a project needs leadership right mr purse it needs a direction right and and does it make the most sense to have a team that gets some period of time to to progressively move a network towards um a state of sufficient decentralization and i think that's you know that's the path that that the hero network contributors and community have been on.

And, um, and that's where it's going to go, like, you know, not in the not too distant future. So, um, I just, you know, when, when I look at, when I look at some other projects, like, you know, like projects that are building front ends that are us facing and they're turning their nose up at, at regulation and whatnot. Like that, that to me is like, look, like there's some things that you're just, yeah. You're just like, like, where do you fall in the, in the stack? And the, you know, and,

and when they get around the table and decide who they're going to go after, are you one of those people or not? And you're the easiest win because you're not fighting back. You're going to pay your lawyer's fees. You're going to settle. And then you're going to get kicked out anyways. Exactly. So just kick yourself out right away and lower that bar for you.

And then buy yourself time. Because eventually there will be guidance here because it is defy is not going away the beauty of it we've seen with just like how bitcoin has evolved over over 13 years that like it's impenetrable now it's untouchable like when it reaches network things reach network effects you're not stopping it and you're definitely not stopping it when it becomes completely like uh geographically dispersed like just not not happening. So you hope to build towards that and leave it at that. And I think until then, you got to understand where the landmines are and what you're building and do what you can to avoid them. Preston Pyshko

Bitcoin can't be stopped, but here you go. SEC again, delays decision on ARK's Bitcoin ETF filing. What's interesting about that is the decision wasn't due till November 11th. So I think it's fair to say we're not getting a Bitcoin spot ETF this year, which I think is going to disappoint a lot of people. And then you have U.S. House lawmakers push SEC's Gensler to approve spot Bitcoin ETF immediately. Interestingly, this is the same committee that he's testifying in front of today, but it's two Republicans and two Democrats. So you've got, but there's still the usual suspects. It's Mike Flood and Emmer from the Republican and then nickel and Richie Torres, of course, from the Democrats. But like, this seems like at this point, it's like a battle

for PR and, and, uh, soundbites because it's not happening. It completely, completely the, which, which also makes it feel a little more vapid. You wish these things became more substantive, but it's a stalemate right now until otherwise noted. your Bitcoin moving forward in terms of innovation or in terms of just general growth, and even though it's programmatically designed to increase in value over time, did you ever think that the two biggest factors that were driving it were going to be an ETF and macro and interest rates? No, I didn't think that for one. And even to raise that, the fact that every presidential candidate has an opinion on Bitcoin and it's being argued on the floor of Congress. And we even last year already saw Gillibrand and Lummis propose a bill. It pinched me. It's kind of like the, then they fight you phase.

I keep joking about that, but it came and I never really thought it would come. I mean, even the fact that Bitcoin in the last cycle became one of the tickers on Fox Business and CNBC that has remained there forever. That narrative you just spouted, what I just said, that should be all that people see. This is a real asset that's never going away now. You never saw Beanie Babies and Tulips on the ticker. Although we do see ticker Bitcoin, which is... Ticker Bitcoin is Harry Potter, Obama, Sonic, Taninu now. Wow, you actually were able to rattle that one off. I would have had to look it up. The hero launched these new things called ZDFs, which are one-day futures contracts. So good. And you can run them on, which basically, the way that they're constructed allows for derivatives on shit coins like this.

So I had to get used to understanding the cultural aspects of that community. I like that. 100% chance that somebody got that from ChatGPT. Went to the AI and was like, the AI, I'm such a boomer. Went to AI and said, give me the most viral five names you could do for a meme coin and put them together. And that's what it spit out. That was it, yes. But seriously, so listen,

I'm going to probably keep you a little past 9.30 because I want to actually, you talked about you're building all the plumbing. You talked about what can be built, but A, what are you exactly building? What are you most excited about? You just mentioned that one contract. And why do you continue clearly to believe in DeFi and what it means for the future?

Yeah. I mean, what we're building, we're building this distributed liquidity layer that basically is, to put it very simply, is taking small ponds of liquidity. So you have a bunch of DEXs, user-facing front ends that are dispersed, that are being pointed at different, you know, different geographic locations that, that we don't build. There's builders, there's teams that come and aggregate to, to the network's liquidity in things like derivatives, but we also do it for betting applications. So we have a pair mutual protocol on Hero Network that allows for like pool-based betting that actually has taken this tangential turn into we've always, you know, Hero historically has always been about this convergence of

trading and gaming and we never really knew what that meant. But for us, the bottom line at the DeFi network level is all about liquidity aggregation and liquidity aggregation, whether it's in whether it's in trading or whether it's in different types of betting venues, it all has the same principles and concepts around them. So we built a infrastructure that aggregates liquidity, has risk engines, has all the elements to it. There is, I think, close to, I think, 22 different projects now building on Hero Network, which is pretty exciting, you know, since we were able to roll the initial beta versions out.

And it ranges everything from various types of DEXs that have different types of features to them. You know, one may be like an OTC specific DEX that does bilateral transactions. Another one might be a very incentives-rich one. Another one might be one that's pointed specifically to a South Korean audience because in South Korea, they like to see

their front ends a different way. They like to see, I think in South Korea, red is up and blue is down, things like that. And they just want to gamble all the volumes from South Korea. It's insane. I don't know what's happening culturally there, but wow. Pretty amazing. Yeah. And so, uh, all of that, all of that liquidity aggregates and feeds down into bottoms out into hero network markets and order books, and all of those become shared. And that way you get the reflexive qualities of liquidity where we know in crypto that liquidity is super fragmented.

And it's really hard, you know, if you trade any type of size, it's really hard to find good, fair, deep markets, even in Bitcoin, even on like the main, on the main centralized exchanges. So we're basically aggregating up so much smaller pools like and so these projects that are building they no longer need to go build their own front end and then build their back end as a smart contract and then go source liquidity all the liquidity and all the back end build is all there it's just wrapped with sdks and apis and they come and plug in, and then they

just have to go market to their specific market they're going after. So we've had some good traction in really starting to grow in the derivatives end. And then on the betting front in the iGaming space, I think there's like four different agreements now that are going to be announced in Q4 that are all either aggregators or betting operators that are going to be carrying content, like apps that are built on top of the network that will be pushed into their platform. a pretty exciting time. It's one of these times right now where the market is so depressed that it's like, this is the second time I've been through this. So really during these periods, we just focus heavily on building and trying to keep our head above water

and just growing our community. And then hopefully when the skies open up, you're there to really capture the next wave of growth. It's been fun to watch you guys evolve from moon wrecked. Oh yeah. It's come a long way, man. Five years,

35.2 years in crypto years. Yes. Dog, dog slash crypto years, man. Well, thank you. Everybody follow Gunny is a Twitter should be down in the description.

Always a pleasure, man. Glad we were able to do this. I got to get you back on spaces too. Let me know when. If you want to come dunk on Gensler, you can come today. I'm not dunking on anybody. Okay, you can, like, you know, politely. I'm my own work in progress. And I'm my own worst enemy, so I should be a work in progress. I love watching you dunk on people, though, I tell you that. We'll bring you up, man. Thank you very much.

Talk to you soon. Take care. Bye. Bye. Yeah, so the only last story that we had, which I find pretty entertaining before we bring up Chris, is Jamie Dimon warned 7% Fed rate still possible. Difference between 5% and 7% more painful than 3% to 5%. Comments come amid view the Fed nearing end of tightening. So obviously everyone thinks the fed has done tightening and jamie diamond of jp morgan who just loves a hot take says

seven percent i don't see it happening but holy shit watch out below if uh they actually somehow do continue to raise rates that high by the way i was like while he was talking i was just thinking about gary gensler having to testify today and all i could the way, while he was talking, I was just thinking about Gary Gensler having to testify today, and all I could think about was I was hoping that I could just play this clip while he was a testifier that they would do it on Congress. You guys remember this?

I love this. Greatest game ever. Finish him. Finish him. Finish him. Finish him. Finish him. Finish him. Finish him. Greatest game ever. Excellent. Johnny Cage wins. Do you remember Johnny Cage had that move where he would drop into the split and hit the guy in the... Yeah, that was amazing, man. I always loved Mortal Kombat. But I hope that they finish him, finish him, finish him, finish him today. Do you guys remember when I used to use these sound bites? I literally just remember that played. I think it played. Did you guys hear a foghorn? Cool. I don't have the headphones that were plugged into that as a speaker.

Anyways, I'm going to go ahead and stop waiting your time and bring on Christopher Inks. What's up, man? How are you? Hey, what's going on, man? I, you know, I spent many, many quarters on Mortal Kombat back in the day. Here you go. Look, I lost so many quarters to that game, says Cloud. By the way, that is not... Okay, maybe you lost them like you put them in and it didn't work because we all know that that used to happen in the 90s and 80s for sure.

But I do not call any coin that was dropped into a Mortal Kombat machine a loss. I think those are some of the greatest investments of my life. Who was your guy? Who'd you use oh man you know i i did a lot of but i really like scorpion man scorpion and sub-zero man like those are my guys raiden was the easiest because his move was just like you didn't need the buttons you could just do the stick and go flying across sub-zero wins love it anyways yeah, let's talk about some charts. So we actually have, I mean, now we get excited about like $600 of volatility, by the way, right? But Bitcoin is up a bit today. But what I find interesting, and I mentioned this on Twitter earlier, I mean, I guess I can just cook through it, right? You've got Bitcoin up, right? Clearly,

I mean, that's a weekly chart, but we can go to a daily chart. We got Bitcoin up, tapping that 50 MA right there. But then you have the dollar raging up, right? And so if we were a correlated asset, you would think that if the dollar is this powerful that we would be seeing Bitcoin drop. So no correlation. And gold down, right? Gold now sub 1900. So Bitcoin, I guess the narrative there, Bitcoin really, to me, is traveling its own path at this point. There's really no use at this moment in looking at macro and trying to determine what Bitcoin is going to do. I mean, I would have made that argument all the time, but yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, nothing changed the way i look

at it you know again um still same structures we've shown before um we've got you know again this is still bearish market structure coming off that 32 000 high here but we just need to break out above uh this right here is the uh bitcoin usd chart on bitstamp so uh whatever it is to whoever's chart they're using binance or coin Coinbase or whatever, this, what is this, the daily here. So around August 29th, that swing high on this chart, it's 28, 142. If we can break out above that, that'll break that bearish market structure and giving, you know, more likelihood that we're heading up. But, you know, we've been sideways locally here since right here around the 18th of August or so. So, you know, going on a month and a half.

I've got this one right here is the 21 EMA on the daily here. There's red one. And you can see we can support resistance. And now we're breaking out above it. You know, still riding off that bullish divergence down here at the low rallying up. So, you know, and basically, you know, you've got the descending resistance here, which, you know, comes right about the daily pivot area. So, you know, and right around this local swing high. So, you know, basically there's 27,200 area. If we can break out impulsively

above that, I think that probably takes out this swing high. And if we do that, then, you know, I think they're kind of saying, okay, the bottom's likely in, you know, and we're heading upward here. So, I mean, you know, and again're heading upward here. So I mean, you know, and again, nothing's really changed, still kind of looking at that same idea for right now. Something interesting that you taught me, I'm not sure you've been watching, but you know, you once told me, you know, just sometimes grab the line chart for divs and stuff and, you know, kind of avoid the noise, something that always stuck with me. But you had this very clear, and you also taught me to draw patterns on the indicators,

resistance on RSI, because very often, guys, it's never 100% hit rate, but very often, if you see RSI breakout, price follows. I can't tell you why, but it's something that happens. And we had that breakout, and that showed you the bottom, actually. But now we have the breakout. I mean, just wondering what you make of this as a mentor you know and then you actually have this double retest here of that same resistance as support and then the move off i mean does that come compelling to you at all as we come into resistance here on the line chart yeah i mean for sure you know again you've got a lot of touches there on that uh on that rsi on the downtrend there. Um, you know, as I always teach, you know, one, one touch is a point, two touches of the line, three touches or more as a trend.

Um, and so it even works, you know, with your, you know, with your RSI there, and then you've got that clean retest, uh, before it pops back up. So yeah, you know, I would think, you know, we're going to see that RSI pop above that local swing high about the same time that price would pop above its local swing high there. It looks like it's in alignment pretty well, again, coming off that bullish divergence. So I definitely wouldn't ignore it. Like you said, no guarantees other than you're going to lose money at some point as a trader. My specialty. But other than that, you go with probabilities and you use good risk management. So yeah.

All right. So I mean So what are you looking for? I actually asked Chet this question yesterday. Maybe worth asking. I mean, we all, I think, kind of agree that this 25-ish level, right? I mean, you have this sort of inverse head and shoulders, a higher high. I mean, does it worry you if we lose that 24,200-ish area at all? I mean, you also have the 50 MA right below it. Both weekly MA is pointing up. Yeah. I mean, this looks like a bullish trend. I don't really see the, any bearishness here off the bottom. Yeah, no, no, no, not at all. I mean, you know, it's again, it's the same idea that we're looking at, you know, I'm looking at this

right now. Count wise is likely a one, two and a one, two here. This two is a flat, which means we could dip on below wave a here. Um, you know, and we can get down there at 24,000 and, you know, it's not, it's to me, it's not a big deal. Um, doing this because I mean, if we go here and we measure out this, this wave circle one here, you know, the 61 eights right there, 23, three 56, 70 and a half at 22, 440 and 78, 621, 619. And you can see if you look left here, where these things actually align, you know, significant areas of support and resistance along the way here, right? I mean, so we toss this one right here, right around 61.8. And you know, you can see here where it's hitting the same areas over and over again.

So no, not, not really not any big deal. Um, it's, it's again, the suggestion is that it's likely done here. You can see that the, um, the daily, uh, stoke RSI, depending on what you're looking at, which charts you're looking at, um, it's broken down and, uh, gotten pretty close here to that oversold. So, I mean, yeah, you know, it looks like it's resetting and ready to go. Um, you know, everybody's at that, at that bearishness where it has to go down. Everybody says it has to go down, you know, um, kind of like everybody else with everything else, right. We get to this crescendo of bearishness, you know, oh my God, you know, it's never done this since then. And, and the market's never done that since then. And, oh, my God, I saw somebody compare. This time it's different.

That's the best time it's different, right? Yeah, I saw somebody compare the S&P to 1987 with the Dow, you know. But, you know, I went in and looked at it. It's a different wave count, right? We've got an ABC here, you know, and that was set differently. But, you know, again, people are going to try and find what they're going to try and find, uh, one, either because they're emotionally biased one way or the other, or two, because they're trying to get, you know, people to interact there on, on social media. But if you're a new trader, it sounds, it all sounds so good. And so likely, you know, it's tough. So I was thinking the other day, man, you know, we've got this crescendo of

everybody being very bearish across all markets and how it has to go down and whatnot. Right. And I started thinking back, I'm like, man, you know, every 10 years or so we get the same kind of thing, right? The dollar, the death of the dollar is the most notable every, you know, 2000, 2010, you know, coming up, you know, always the death of the dollar and it doesn't die. Right. But the same thing with everything else.

Oh, the market has to die. And I'm starting to think, well, man, okay. So what if this is just, I mean, it feels we're in the moment. It feels terrible. It feels bad. Oh my God, interest rates are so high. Not really. Historically, not really. I always love the joke that my parents had like a 14% mortgage in the 80s or something. Yeah. Or they even look at housing, right? They go, oh, look, housing is so many times more your income than it was back then. But then you got to look at housing sizes. Houses are like two and a half times the sizes back then as well. So when you work with the data so that it's equal in terms of square foot, it's just so we get caught in everything. It feels like it's the end of the world. But really, if we step back for a minute, we can see it's just the same thing that happens

every so often. So I guess that kind of keeps me grounded right now. I'm not saying things can't go down, obviously. But, you know, until they actually do, until they actually break what these larger macro kind of accounts and stuff, I see no reason to freak out. It's just some sideways. The sideways sucks. Yeah, it takes some time. Yeah, but it's freak out. It's just some sideways. The sideways sucks. Yeah,

it takes some time. Yeah, but it's part of trading, right? It is. So you're obviously watching some other things I can see here. So beyond Bitcoin, which yes, got $500 move. Hooray. But beyond that, what are you looking at? Because I'm seeing a few and Ched showed us a bunch yesterday of all coins and you do the same. I don't find them right now. I don't know. Maybe it's, I have some inherent bias in my brain to just avoid it, but. Yeah. Yeah. You know, I mean, you know, again, nothing's guaranteed, but the idea is to get into the charge and kind of find some potential movement or potential setup. So that way you can be in with movement. Right. And so Cass, I'm still kind of looking up here around a 0.07071 or so.

You know, we did get this peak out. So, you know, especially if we peak out above this all-time high here at 0.054. If we break out above that, you know, I'm looking up there at that 0.071 kind of area. But Comp was interesting. Comp is moving a little bit this morning, along with some other ones, you know, obviously with Bitcoin moving and all. If we can kind of get above this orange range here, right around $45, I would immediately be looking up here around, you know, $54. And if we could take this out, you know, again, I think we're moving up here toward right up here around around $68, $69. So, I mean, I think it's got a couple of good moves coming up uh potentially on that uh let me see here i mean nice 50 percenter yeah yeah nice

nice little bit move and you know and if we're getting up to this initial target the odds are a much much higher that we're going to actually break out and go high right but we're just looking at some kind of like local targets along the way. But yeah, I mean, I think the setups there, um, we've got, you know, we've got this range kind of a building over here after this nice, um, initial drop there. So, you know, and we're finding support looks like right along the EQ of that, of that range. Um, and before anybody says, Oh, I draw ranges wrong. No, I don't. I draw them. Uh, how we draw them with, with Wyckoff. So, uh, they're a little bit different, but they tend to work out a lot better than what most people draw.

But yeah. So, I mean, you know, right here, even just, just finding all this support continually here. We had a couple of spikes of volume right around here, but there is no follow through lower. Um, and so, you know, we kind of got this rejection up here, but again, another, you know, basically a higher low here. We're rallying back up. So we'd like to, we kind of got this rejection up here. But again, another, you know, basically a higher low here. We're rallying back up.

So we'd like to see that kind of strength. We just want to see this breakout if we can do that again. We've got them targets coming up there. Do people tell you to draw your ranges wrong? Do it. Do people actually tell you to draw your ranges wrong? All the time, man. Oh, yeah.

They're very vocal about it. Why? They think you should use that little wing. They think you should use the swing high at the top of the range there, that top wake. Yeah, but there's a reason in Wyckoff why we draw it the way we draw it. Yeah, of course, because it's where that first initial bounce ends, not the highest point after it. Exactly, exactly. You're usually going to get a little bit higher up there, but then what you'll notice is most of the time,

that EQ of that range, if you're using these channels just works beautifully as that, as that demarcation area within the range. But yeah, so I think we've got some potential on that. I like Q and Q and T potentially here. You know, we've got this nice bit of descending resistance here. We've got this doji, this pin bar candle here, right at the low with a spike of volume oversold uh you know rsi and stoke rsi there we actually have a bit of

bullish divergence right here now we're talking uh coming right into there so um it looks like it's set up to go if we can break out impulsively through that so i'm looking for a you know a larger candle spread kind of thing a spike of volume um i would have minimum even say it minimally be looking up here i mean at least uh right around 97 or so but i think if we get there we just need to kind of break out impulsively through this daily pivot and then i think it just kind of continues up at that point i would look up up here probably around, uh, uh, you know, 111, 110 as the next target on the way up. So I think it's got a couple of good, uh, targets there. And if we're doing that, the odds increase significantly that we rally up toward, you know, this one 50, one 60 area. And then of course this high up here where we're're getting about 190 or so. And, you know, if we're up in this 150 to 190 area, the odds are significant that we're going to break out higher on that.

So, yeah, I think things like that would take a long time. I mean, the thing is, I'm 90 percent convinced. I don't care if it goes up, down, follows the way you said. We will have a cycle where these things are all going to fly again. Yeah. There's people who believe that will never happen again. Yeah. And the one thing I want to caution against, you know, again, I think everybody in the main mindset that everybody has really coming into crypto is this get rich quick, make money overnight type thing.

So they ignore a lot of potential opportunities because they're looking for the newest, squeakiest toy. But the problem is most people that are coming in don't really know how to trade anyway. So they don't know how to handle that volatility when it runs. And, you know, either they'll get in late or they'll get in wrong or they'll exit late or they won't exit at all. And it's just the same cycle over and over again. You know, so I mean, personally, if you're a newer trader, honestly, guys, I would stick with like the top five, top 10, uh, until you really get consistently profitable because there's more liquidity in there.

So the volatility isn't, you know, anywhere near as like a, you know, Pepe take it off. And then you're like, Oh my God, but Pepe, I could have made, I could have turned a dollar into a hundred billion dollars in a week. Yeah. But nobody did. I was talking about this yesterday. There was a article that said, a whole article on how if Michael Saylor had decided to focus on Ethereum instead of Bitcoin, he would be up instead of down. And I was like, yeah, I should have just

bought Nvidia, right? Or should have invested in some small cap somewhere in China we've never heard of that did a 5000x. Why didn't he do that? I hate when people view their own portfolio or their own decision versus a completely unrelated portfolio or asset that was not their decision, because it's completely irrelevant. There's literally always something better you could have done with your money at any given time. If you knew human nature, human nature, we always, we always, we're never happy. We're never satisfied with what we have. The grass is always greener on the other side. And, uh, you know, we can talk about the causes and failed relationships and everything else in life with that, but you know, it's, it's, it's just human nature to do it. Um, got to try and be mindful as a trader though. You know, you got to got to stop with the emotion as much as possible, whether it's elation or depressiveness. If you're feeling that, get away from the charts for however long it takes, an hour, a day, a week, whatever the marks will still be here. Yeah. What else have you got? Anything else? Yeah. Yeah. I've got a few here. Let me see here. I've got FIL here, I like this channel coming down. This is really nice. Uh, so far what we've

got as far as this local range, I like the volume and, uh, price action relationship going on in here. Uh, and so, you know, again, uh, potentially just look at this as a one, two here, we're getting this bullish engulfing candle printing. This is on the daily. Uh, so, you know, this, of course, as well as off this, um, bullish divergence right here, you know, it's so kind of like same thing with, you know, Bitcoin there and, you know, others. So, I mean, even if we're looking right here, just locally, we should get an impulsive breakout above, you know, what, you know, again, like Bitcoin, right? It's the descending resistance and the, you know, what, you know, again, like Bitcoin, right? It's, it's the descending resistance and the, you know, in the daily pivot right there. And so, you know, that should be getting us up there at around, you know, $4 just initially that'd be that wave three, right? So you go $4,

you pull back to the range and then you break out a bit higher here, about four and a quarter. And then, you know, you'll come back and you pull back toward the range again as a one, two here, and then boom, you're off to the races. Right. But I think we're pretty close to that. I think we might see that come up. It looks good. You know, we've got a lot of room on the RSI and the Stoke RSI here to kind of propel us and rally up. So if we can get that impulsive breakout right there, right around three and a half dollars or so. You know, I think you look at four and four and a quarter pull back to around three, six, $3.60 or so. And then you're like, again, you're really kind of taking off $5 plus coming up next on there. So I think this is

really a nice looking setup at the moment. I agree. That looks great. And I think you got one more up there. Yeah. Actually, I've got... Because again, everybody, end of the world, right? Nothing's changed. This is the E-minis for S&P. And we've got a uh, because again, everybody end of the world, right? Nothing's changed. This is the, uh, e-minis for S and P and, uh, we've got a gap fill over here. Remember, I think we talked about this before. This was that mid August swing high and we gapped up above it. We've come back, filled that in. Now we're a 38 to pull back on a wave four, which is, you know, your initial target.

If we keep dropping, we'll look at 50% here, right around 42, 37, 38. It's just that low volume node right there. There's kind of support here. But if we can turn around either there or there and rally back up, we just need above a 45, 66 here. And that gets us a wave three target up here around 48, 51 and a half. But that's only three. That's five of three. Then we get a four on the pullback and then we still have a five coming up. Quickly though, what do you make of that clear head and shoulders there? I mean, I got it on SPY right here, you know, kind of the same idea. You got it on E-minis. What do you make of that?

Yeah, well, you know, usually I'm not a big fan of head and shoulders. That's why I ask. Because it's so easy to, it's so easy to see something that looks like it and then it turns out not to be it. But yeah, you know, maybe, again, I don't like the really small shoulder and the really large shoulder i you know if i see patterns like this i want to see much more it doesn't have to be exact but you want to see yeah you know a bit bit clearer there so yeah i would be careful that it doesn't become a false breakdown of that particular pattern um and does it here on this one you

know yours was uh the spy was higher lows uh for that neckline yeah this one right, you know, yours was, uh, the spy was higher lows, uh, for that neckline. Yeah. This one right here, you know, we're, we're right there. So, um, you know, and we've challenged that we're kind of pulling back locally again, for me, I want to see if not a rally here, then right down here. Yeah. And look at Stoke and RSI is that RSI and then Stoke at the bottom. I mean, they're both going. Yeah. RSI and then Stoke RSI. Um, you know, again, yeah, you were kind of just right above this um you know right right above oversold here so again if we hit that 50 we're getting back down into oversold and this is the daily and we're already almost bottom but you know we're right

around bottom down here on the stoke rsi so i would you know again if we are dropping down there i would definitely be looking for a rally i've got this as an ABC, but it could be a WXY. So, you know, ABC down up and then ABC down to finish it up there. So it's a three-way movement right now though. So that's the important thing, but I don't, I don't buy into this. Oh, that's the top. That's it. We're headed to, you know, um, big crash on October 2nd kind of thing that people are talking about. Love it. All right. We're going to, we're going to make it. We're going to make it. I think so. We're all going to make it. Love it. What else? Any other, uh, anything, any final thoughts before I let you go and head over to Twitter spaces? Um, you know, just the same thing, you know, I constantly want to remind people of,

which is, um, it's easy to get caught up with emotions, uh, you know, in trading and, um, you would be amazed at how much your emotions actually color your logic, you know, in trading and, um, you would be amazed at how much your emotions actually color your logic, you know? Um, so use trading journals. People don't want to do this cause it's extra work. Use trading journals, uh, put down the date, uh, what you're entering, what time you're entering, what time you exit. And when you enter, make sure you know where your, your entry, your stop loss and your exit is. And write down why, why are you thinking this trade is going to work out, whatever. And then any, anything that's happened in the last few days that might've gotten you a little emotional. Did you win $500 on a scratch off? Did your aunt, did your aunt Jane pass away? You know, because what's going to happen is when you look back in a week and after

that, and you're going to go back over your trade, you're going to start seeing a pattern of emotional decisions, most likely. And you can't change what you're doing until you actually understand that it's happening. So it's one of the biggest hacks out there for traders and most don't actually do it or they get really lazy with it. So yeah, I would do that. Love it. All right, man. Thank you. And we'll see you soon. All right, man. Appreciate it. Follow Chris, TX West Capital on Twitter. All right, man. Thank you. Take care. That's all we got today. Heading over to listen to Gensler in four minutes. I'm going to go try to check that out before we head on to Twitter spaces. I will, of course, see all of you back here tomorrow. Let's go.