The Wolf Of All Streets - Is The Bitcoin Rally Over?
Episode Date: April 17, 2024I am joined by James Butterfill, Head Of Research at CoinShares, as we discuss the latest in crypto and try to find out whether the Bitcoin rally is over. Chris Inks will join us in the second part to... share some interesting trades in crypto and beyond. James Butterfill: https://twitter.com/jbutterfill Chris Inks: https://twitter.com/TXWestCapital ►► Sponsored by DevvE DevvE is a next-generation cryptocurrency - DevvE addresses Bitcoin’s most significant weaknesses—regulatory compliance, energy consumption, costs and speed! 👉 Follow DevvE on X for Updates: https://twitter.com/DevveEcosystem  👉 Join the DevvE Telegram group to stay in the know! https://t.me/DevveOfficial  ►► JOIN SNIPER SCHOOL W/SCOTT MELKER - LEARN LIFE CHANGING KNOWLEDGE! Join Sheldon the Sniper and Scott Melker for Expert Insights & Strategies in Crypto Trading! Starting January 31st!! 👉 https://cryptoschool.cryptobanter.com/sniper-school?source=scottmelker  ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEKDAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/  ►►OKX SIGN UP FOR AN OKX TRADING ACCOUNT THEN DEPOSIT & TRADE TO UNLOCK MYSTERY BOX REWARDS OF UP TO $60,000! 👉 https://www.okx.com/join/SCOTTMELKER ►►TRADING ALPHA READY TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS? THE BEST TRADERS IN CRYPTO ARE RELYING ON THESE INDICATORS TO MAKE TRADES. USE CODE ‘25OFF’ FOR 25% OFF WHEN VISITING MY LINK. 👉 https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker ►►NGRAVE This is the coldest hardware wallet in the world and the only one that I personally use. 👉https://www.ngrave.io/?sca_ref=4531319.pgXuTYJlYd ►►NORD VPN GET EXCLUSIVE NORDVPN DEAL - 40% DISCOUNT! IT’S RISK-FREE WITH NORD’S 30-DAY MONEY-BACK GUARANTEE. PROTECT YOUR PRIVACY! 👉 https://nordvpn.com/WolfOfAllStreets  Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://twitter.com/scottmelker  Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.io  Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe  Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c  #Bitcoin #Crypto #trading Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 3:30 Bitcoin is down 6:40 Iran & Bitcoin 9:00 Unemployment 11:20 Halving: non-event 15:00 ETF inflows 16:30 Ethereum’s underperformance 18:00 Bitcoin rally over? 19:40 Devve 21:00 Bitcoin chart: correction 28:30 Stocks & crypto charts The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.
Transcript
Discussion (0)
Bitcoin has continued to correct, having many call for the end of the bull market,
the top being in, the halving cycle being different. This time, all coins are bleeding,
meme coins are dead. It's over. You've heard it. Probably not true, but I will discuss it today
with two of my favorite guests, James Butterfield, and of course, Texas West Capital, Christopher
Inks on the back end. Excited for this show live from Dubai.
Let's go. I think Ja Rule is probably playing tonight. You guys have no idea what an absolute train wreck of a disaster the last 48 hours or so of my life have been.
But what an adventure.
I basically conned someone into letting me use their monster truck after sitting in the airport for eight hours to get to my hotel at 430 in the morning.
Having a Snickers and pistachios as my only meal for about 12 hours.
It's been going really, really great and still bad today.
I can tell you that anecdotally,
Rolls Royces perform horribly in the rain
because I saw about 15 of them underwater in the last 24 hours.
Guys, that's not what you guys want to hear about today. We're going to
actually talk crypto right now. I'm bringing on one of my favorites, of course, James Butterfield.
James, you told me you went to your first crypto conference. Are you glad it's not this one?
Yeah, I am kind of glad, actually. Yeah, I put my crypto conference cherry. I went to the Human
Rights Foundation event in London, headed by Alex Gladstein, and that was great.
That's a really good one to attend.
Yeah, that's a really good one to attend if you want to actually care about the use cases and importance of this technology.
Exactly. I think a lot of the organic growth of Bitcoin is coming from emerging markets where people are in politically difficult situations.
There was a lady that worked, I probably say her name wrong, Anya Chekova, who worked for
Alexei Navalny. And a lot of her friends have been killed or had massive limitations. The bank
shut down unexpectedly, really impinging their life. So they're all pivoting to Bitcoin.
And their charities like Save the Children funding in Bitcoin now.
It was a really interesting event.
And in Nigeria, a lot of people are using it for micropayments.
And I just found the whole thing really fascinating.
To hear a really positive story for Bitcoin for once. Alex is for sure the best in the business at gathering the true users and believers
from all over the world.
He had someone last I saw him at Bitcoin Miami,
he did an incredible panel with someone from North Korea.
I mean, really, he's incredible.
People should check him out.
I know that's not the topic of the day, but definitely something worth discussing.
The topic of the day, you know, we talk about the humanitarian use of Bitcoin, and then we
unfortunately jump right to the price of Bitcoin and everything else in the market, which is what
people want to talk about. And not as great as many would hope, down 7% in the last seven days,
another percent in the last 24 hours, kind of testing the bottom of this range
here. Ethereum, you know, dropping below 3000 and now recovering. I mean, what do you think is going
on here? Is this just another correction that we're panicking about? Is there anything to actually be
paying attention to here? What's happening in your mind? And then from the data that you're
actually seeing, since you're always obviously on top of the flows. Yeah, I mean, we've seen this story before.
A leverage driven rally and then something triggers a bit of bad news and something triggers a deleveraging event.
And that's what we've seen.
We've seen open interest in Bitcoin get to yearly lows now.
So a big unwinding there.
And if you look at altcoins,
the largest unwinding for about six months.
So in some respects, not actually that bad.
But in perspective, year to date,
we're still up dramatically in terms of price,
price performance.
I don't think it's that bad.
I think it's quite different to say previous
halving cycles at this point so far um and if we look at fund flows they are drying up and i think
a lot of prices uh rising were they were being propped up by those fund flows so on aggregate
you know this week we're about net neutral now so So some outflows from Grayscale, although dwindling, but less inflows from some of the U.S. names.
But in perspective, we're still up year to date $12.8 billion of inflows year to date, which is more than any other year in total.
So it's still quite a positive story. And I'm not surprised to see this kind of market correction
and perhaps a bit of a caution from investors
given recent negative momentum.
Yeah, I expected this correction.
I've been basically saying it for a month.
Outside of my emotional belief that the ETFs would continue
to drive price every single day,
when you rationally looked at how overbought things were,
the meme coin madness,
just sort of
all the nonsense and froth that was happening in the market. It seemed time for a correction.
To be frank, I think a correction is good. And I think the longer it lasts, maybe the better,
as long as it doesn't break down and we find this was the top or something like that.
But when you create 1,000 meme coins a day, we all know there was new money coming into Bitcoin,
but the altcoin market is the same money recycling through the washing machine, in my opinion.
You're not seeing much more money there.
So when you just create a new 100, 200, 300 coins every day, eventually there's just no liquidity left to buy those things, in my opinion.
Yeah, I mean, in fund flows, actually the best performing on a relative basis are the altcoins.
Investors as well, institutional basis are the altcoins. You know, investors are as well.
Institutional investors are like retail investors.
They are pivoting into some of these altcoins, which is quite interesting.
Crazy.
And some quite esoteric ones like Internet Computer Protocol
and Decentraland and things like that.
Yeah, absolutely.
I think, you know, what's precipitated this,
what's really interesting is Iran and why the prices fell.
I mean, Iran attacked Israel on Saturday, and it's the only day, the only market that's open on Saturdays happens to be Bitcoin.
So, of course, they're going to use that as a source of liquidity and trade against it.
And, you know, Bitcoin is sensitive because of how much leverage it sloshes about in the market at times.
It is sensitive to these events.
But I don't think it necessarily means it's just another risk asset. I think if you read between the lines, we're seeing the prospects of higher
inflation because of what's happening in the Middle East. If things really do kick off
and Israel retaliates against Iran, then we could see a full-blown war and then a rise in a spike in oil prices, that will mean the Fed can't cut rates like
they're hoping to do.
Right.
Yeah.
And the cutting of rates...
I've never believed that Fed was going to cut rates.
I've never believed the Fed was going to cut rates.
There's no reason I've been saying...
Maybe one cut this year.
Well, they should if the data they're giving us isn't real, which I don't ever believe
in data. They should if the data they're giving us isn't real, which I don't ever believe. But if inflation is going in the right direction and jobs are strong, then they shouldn't cut.
Well, the thing is, you could have said the same at the start of 1990.
1990 to March, we saw average payrolls were at 246,000 for the first three months.
Everything looked great. Come July, we were in a recession
in 1990. Now, if you look at today, payrolls are averaging for the first three months, 263, I think,
63,000. Things seem great. Things can turn very quickly downwards. And actually, I think
US is heading towards stagflation you've got
higher inflation but weaker growth in certain areas i mean yeah you had good retail sales numbers
but the empire manufacturing data was really bad housing starts and building starts were
much worse than expected so not everything's great and then you've got quite high loan
delinquencies in the us as well as in europe So things aren't as great as people say they are. fast. It's not a very slow moving process. But the dirty secret is, if we do see them decide
to cut and pivot, it's probably a sign that something is wrong, like you said, or that they
know that that recession is coming. And usually that pivot precedes the market crash. It's not
a good thing. You just have to look at the bond market the last few days and how they reacted
to Powell's comments recently. He talked about it being very data dependent, which is basically
code for saying, I'm going to wait for the data before I do anything, which is actually,
you should be proactive, not reactive. And the bond market didn't like it at all.
Yeah, their lack of proactivity in the other direction is why we have this problem in general,
right? They waited way too long to cut. They continued to, yeah.
This is why I think the Fed not cutting rates now
might not be so good for Bitcoin,
but in the longer term it will.
Because when they do cut,
like on the way up,
they were hiking,
it was a knee-jerk hike reaction,
very aggressive rate rises.
On the way down,
it will be a knee-jerk cut reaction
because they waited too late.
And they'll probably cut,
sort of maybe the first cut
will be 50 basis points,
not 25.
And that will be very supportive for something like Bitcoin because it will tell you basically the Fed's made another mistake.
Yeah.
So we have to talk, obviously, about the halving.
We're basically three days away.
Of course, the Bitcoin halving would fall on 420, because Satoshi Nakamoto somehow had a sense of humor.
Goldman cautions against extrapolating previous Bitcoin halving cycles for price predictions. If you dig into this, obviously, this is Goldman Sachs, but
basically saying, listen, we made an all-time, this cycle is different. The dangerous words,
this time is different. We made an all-time high much sooner than we should have. The situation in
the market is very different than other halvings. So if we do look at previous halving cycles,
we know that the event itself is a bit of a nothing burger, right? The halving comes, you pop a bottle of champagne,
you go back to work 10 minutes later and price shouldn't change. But four to six months later
is when we usually see the ramp up in the bull market. Yeah. I think it might be a bit of a
non-event halving. If you look at, we've had three, a sample of three to look at historically and if we look at the one
in 2020 it came at exactly the same time as the covid stimulus checks occurred you could argue
that it's the stimulus checks and people buying bitcoin with those stimulus checks that push the
price up not the halving so maybe you've got something for the size of two is that good enough
to draw any conclusions i don't think so and the
other thing is the market's maturing now and and as the market matures i think it will start to look
forwards more and the halving you can i think the latest estimate is 6 p.m utc on the 19th so it
might not be a 420 event um but um yeah you close, maybe very early in the morning on the 20th. But
ultimately, I think the markets, if you look at the run-up, Goldman Sachs is right. It is different
to previous run-ups to halving events. And the markets should theoretically have priced this.
They know about it. So why isn't it priced now?
It's certainly priced into the mining companies.
If you look at mining companies, they've been really beaten up this year.
They're down on average 25%.
So that's quite different to the Bitcoin prices.
And usually they're quite highly correlated too.
Yeah.
We can pay with miners very quickly.
I mean, here, Bitcoin miners fall,
even as CEOs say they're ready for the halving. You've come on and very eloquently sort of
differentiated between the different publicly traded miners and that they're not all one bucket
anymore. There are some that will obviously should do exceptionally well before, after the halving,
and some who could be a lot of, under a lot of pressure if price absolutely dumps or even stays where it is.
But Bernstein's saying buy Bitcoin miners ahead of the habit. They're saying that this is a good
time. Maybe the market's overreacting. Maybe this is the moment that you're going to get these cheap.
Can I rephrase that? Can I say buy select miners?
Some. Yeah, buy the right miners.
And which are the select miners? Who's in a good position still?
It's interesting. Do you go for quality like CleanSpark, which has a low cost of production?
We just about published the latest figures, but we're calculating the average cost of production
for the Bitcoin miners now is about 53,000. CleanSpark has an average cost of production
around 41,000, one of the most competitive. The problem is, if you look at price performance, it's got a high valuation at EV to sales, which suggests a lot of it's already priced.
So if you go for the quality names, you might well be paying through the nose for that. And the same
goes for something like Marathon. If you look at companies like Terrawolf, I think they've been a
bit beaten up in this. They've underperformed price-wise.
They've fallen more than others.
And yet they look more attractive on an EV-to-sales and price-value-to-sales basis.
So in my view, maybe it's better to go for those companies that have been a bit more beaten up but still look like quality companies, still have lower costs of production. and we'll we'll come out in the next few days our blog on all of this and where we what
we think companies average cost of production are but there are other companies like hot eight
that have cost of production around 73 75 000 so um that's you know you need to see obviously
real potential price upside for them to continue as a going concern.
I look for the babies that have been thrown out with the bathwater effectively.
You know, the ones that have been lumped in as all miners and maybe even gotten a little bit extra beat up unjustifiably.
I love this headline, by the way, we were talking about the halving.
This one just made me laugh.
Grayscale GBT reaches its own halving, down 50% in Bitcoin holdings
since spot ETF launch. We always talk about the Ethereum to Bitcoin flippening.
I think the real flippening is going to be iBit and GBTC in the coming weeks.
It's almost exactly. I mean, I think Grayscale has seen $16.5 billion of outflows.
iBit has seen $15.8 billion of inflowsows you could argue just on one metric alone that is the
fees they charge that's why that's happened but ultimately people have been locked up for several
years and are looking to crystallize gains from the grayscale product so it's not surprising that
you know we've seen this this these outflows but it's tough I mean they're still discussing whether
or not they they cut their
fees but um in my opinion they shouldn't i think they should just hold on to those high fees and
hope people don't want to crystallize games that yeah in this point that's game series just that's
the best thing for them to do there's no point in shooting their own you know their own foot right
now by cutting fees so we'll probably see continued steady outflows from Grayscale
and migration to cheaper funds like I do.
I have two more quick topics.
One has to be Ether.
Ether options show bias for weakness over three months.
A lot of puts.
Maybe that's a good thing.
Maybe there's a squeeze coming.
And then, of course, an Ethereum price and downtrend
as Bitcoin challenges 64K.
I mean, Ethereum has been, as we know, underperforming the altcoin run and underperforming Bitcoin.
You and I kind of have both come on the past and say probably more of an opportunity.
Things good. Is it just a matter of patience?
We see these things happen.
So big software upgrades.
So the latest one, EIP4844.
And then we had the Merge and Shanghai and others.
And every time that event happens,
that generally goes quite smoothly,
like all of them have recently.
You would expect the price to rally, but it hasn't.
And in fact, it's really underperformed after all these events
and then i think there is a realization as well that the etf is not going to happen in may for
ethereum and may possibly not this year because they've had very little responses from the
consultation processes at the sec so um yeah i, a lot of the price appreciation that Ethereum saw was due to the
hype around the potential ETF launch. So it's probably that and just the general feeling that,
you know, actually, I think this latest upgrade to Ethereum network has been very successful.
We've seen a big increase in transaction speeds and reduction in transaction costs,
which was the whole intention. But I don't think they're as good at marketing as Solana are, and therefore, they suffer
a bit when people start comparing them against Solana.
I think that's it, right.
And listen, we have to, before I let you go, we have to talk about the actual topic at
hand.
Is the Bitcoin rally over?
Literally a topic of this article here.
Is the Bitcoin rally over?
Reasons to stay bullish on Bitcoin despite correction.
It feels like we're getting a whole lot of time-based capitulation. People, the people who thought we were going
up all the time and just freak out and get bored. I think a lot of people, you know, when you buy,
you should, I hate the word hodl, just buy and hold is what I'd say. Buy and hold because I
think that Bitcoin, if you look at the fundamental growth and where it's happening, there are slow burn issues. Like a lot of, you know, I talked at the start about
Human Rights Foundation, a lot of the organic growth in Bitcoin is adoption in emerging markets,
where things economically and politically are much worse. Those things take while,
they're slow burn issues. And I think you should have a slow burn investment strategy
towards something like Bitcoin. And also just take it as competing with gold. At the moment, Bitcoin represents 8% of
gold's market share. If I said 100,000 Bitcoin price, that may sound a bit crazy, but that's
only 12% of gold's market share. And that kind of, when you paint it in that light, I think it's
quite a reasonable investment.
Yeah, makes sense to me. James, thank you. I appreciate you being willing to wait 15,
20 minutes for my car to literally make it through a flood. It was impressive work.
Thank you so much for your patience and always for your perspective. Guys,
please follow him. Much appreciated.
My pleasure, Scott. Thanks.
All right. Well, before we move on to Chris, which we're about to do, and I have a feeling I know what his answer is, too, is the Bitcoin rally over. You guys can see that we are sponsored by DevE right up there. anyone who's wondering founded by the former head of the u.s uh defense intelligence agency inventor
and builder of the kindle the former cio of starbucks a blockchain that has insane speed
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that nobody else has ask you to go down right in the comments check them out actually during my uh
dinner at the louvre when i was in paris week, I met in person Ray, the CEO.
So we're going to have him on very soon. Really smart guy. Really interesting.
So I can't wait to chat with him. Now, the moment you've all been waiting for is the Bitcoin rally over.
Chris, there's some we have some like angry ish, you know, commentary on Twitter posts and in YouTube.
You can tell that the people are losing their mind. I saw one guy, where is it? Right above. He asked me how my divergence is doing that I shared that
I had the nerve to share yesterday on Twitter. I would say if we're looking at charts, it looks
great. Yeah. Like that's a, that's a bullish divergence. That's building more potential
bullish divergence. If we get another low, it's there on the four hour, it's there on the six
hour, it's building on the 12 hour. We're still not oversold on the daily yet, but I think this
looks like we're forming a local bottom, bottom forming. So to the people who want to troll in
the comments, I didn't say price was going to 74,000 the second that this printed.
Yeah, we get a lot of that. We sit here, we talk about larger targets overall and the general
structure and what's going on. And the minute this thing pulls back in the range, people are like,
oh my God, you're so wrong. You're so stupid. And it's just silliness, honestly.
So I've been talking about for a month that we're in a range, basically.
And unless we're breaking through impulsively and closing outside of that range, we are just
range bound. I don't even think you really consider it a pullback, right? And so I've
been talking about that. I said, well, here's a couple of things that could happen in the range.
Look at maybe a triangle. I said, I didn't really like that though. Um, and I explained why in a couple of things. And one of the things was,
listen, if we're getting back down toward this low here, after we kind of made this rally up,
I said, it looks like we'll probably be doing a flat correction. And the big thing here is that
this is three waves down. And so this is corrective. Um, so this is three waves down. And then we've
got three waves up that rallies back about 90% back up through wave A.
And so that's the start of a flat correction.
Then we're looking for five waves down for wave C.
Now, you could argue when you zoom in, I may zoom in in a minute here,
but when you zoom in, you can argue maybe that there's actually five waves done here,
because you usually look for that wave C to pull back right around wave A,
unless we're breaking out up here though, above that, you know, 67,000 kind of area.
I'm going to assume that generally speaking, it's probably still in progress. And here's the thing,
what we would likely get, I think if we're going to break down below this range low here is we're going to trap the breakdown traders. Everybody is so convinced that this is the top and it has to go down.
That's a,
you know,
that's the,
the,
the recipe that we look for when we look for,
you know,
one of them traps like that.
And so what would likely happen,
I think is that we would wick on down through this 50,
it depends what chart you're on,
but basically 59,000 to 59,200 swing low over here around March 5th. Um, and, and
probably even tag this channel resistance. This is that channel, you know, I've talked about so
many times here from the swing low from, from the swing low. So, you know, you kind of got the big
move through it, uh, and you come back, maybe retest it and head up. Um, and then if we do that,
I mean, I think people, like I said, I think people are
just going to get ready to go break down, trade that as it happens, probably get caught. And,
you know, really quick, you get a wick down there, move back up into the range here. And if that's
happening, you better not want to be short because I think this thing's going to move pretty rapidly
back up through the range. And, you know, we've heard there's this record number of shorts up here around 73,000. You know, if you look at the CME cot report,
you know, the commitment to traders report there, it shows that for quite a while now,
institutional traders, institutional investors have been going long and increasingly long.
Hedge funds have been going increasingly short. And so, you know, you've got a ton of this, especially around that 73 area.
So, you know, I think if you need a narrative,
I think it would be okay.
You dip down here, you trap the breakdown traders,
send that thing back up.
Now they've got to cover.
So now you've got volume going up already.
Then they have to cover.
So they're getting other shorts,
which, you know, puts long positions in there,
increases the rally even more.
And then not only that, but then they want to get long
because they were wrong with the short.
And that pops it up into that 73-74 area, starts liquidating shorts,
gets us a short squeeze, pops us up really good with that.
So, I mean, I think if you need a narrative, there it is.
Again, if we zoom in here, though, real quick, right in here.
Again, you could say maybe one, two, three, four, five actually here.
So, you know, as long as this holds and we break out above, you know,
this swing has the four-hour pivot up here around 66, 900.
If we can break out above that, that's going to suggest that bottom's probably in there.
Maybe an Adam and Eve double bottom printing here.
So again, you need the same breakout above here to confirm that, you know, again, as
you constantly remind people, a pattern is not a pattern until it's complete.
And so, you know, potential Adam Eve double bottom, but it has to break out and close
here above this, you know, that same on this chart here, 66,900 level to kind of confirm that.
The target on that is right up here, right prior to the all-time high.
So at the top of the range.
So we've got a lot of things setting up here possibly to get us there.
But, you know, for me locally here, I need a breakout above that level or,
you know, I'm going to continue to look for a potential
dip down here, which I think will be short-lived and back up.
Yeah. Time here. If likely, probably, maybe, potentially. I just got to remind you guys,
if we told you what was going to happen, you should run as fast and as far as you possibly
can. If we were not using words like if, likely, probably, maybe, potentially,
and if we were not pivoting and changing our analysis based on new data, you should go.
I mean, that's what you should do. Strong opinions loosely held. So yes,
we play in probabilities here. If you say probably, it means 65% chance it might happen.
That means there's a 35% chance it might not. Unfortunately,
that's the way that you have to talk about these things. If you're speaking with 100% conviction,
you are either fooling yourself or fooling everybody else.
Yeah, 100%. And you can always tell whether somebody is actually more a gambler or a trader.
Gamblers being most retail participants.
They don't like it when I say that, but it's true. Um, you know, trading like any other skill set
takes, you know, um, discipline, focus, consistency, effort, patience. You have to learn
it. You have to use it. Right. Uh, I can say all day that I'm a, you know, uh, I don't know,
New England Patriots football player. Right. But it doesn't make it so. Um, and so, you know, I don't know, a New England Patriots football player, right? But it doesn't make it so.
And so, you know, you get a lot of that kind of feedback and, you know, you understand where it
comes from. But, you know, hopefully those people, if they're really in the markets, hopefully they,
you know, they listen, they go, okay, maybe I really need to learn what I'm doing because
the things I'm saying right now is just silly. but that's exactly what you're doing. Probabilities, right? That's what, that's all trading is guys. Uh, if you want to work on,
on definites and, and for sure, and whatnot, you're not going to do any trading ever,
ever. And if anybody tries to sell you that bill of goods, like Scott said, run the hell the other
way, because it's, it's a bunch of nonsense. You work with what you have and you say, okay,
is it more or more, you know,
is it more or less likely to happen? And at what point does that become more or less likely to happen?
That's what you do.
It's why risk management is so important.
That's why it's the only thing that's really important.
Okay.
So do you have anything else that you're actually looking at in this market
while we're correcting?
I see a lot of over the same way.
I said like that.
I saw someone, somebody here was like,
you haven't been saying any of this of course, but you know, i i tweeted a month ago that i was really concerned about the market basically
near the top you know because of meme coins all those things but one of these things was
historically overbought and a lot of our of alts with bearish divergences well i'm gonna tell you
right now i see a lot of uh alts right now that are oversold with bullish divergences forming.
Yeah, yeah. Real quick, the one I wanted to, as far as stocks go here, is XLE.
XLE's got this great triangle here that finished out.
And based on the height of that triangle, we've got a target up here about 115.75.
Locally, looks like we've got a wave four here i'm looking for
this pullback down here to 32 around 92 and 30 cents or so um so you know again looking at being
like an a probably a b a bounce and a c down here a rally off there will get us 103 and a quarter
um if we push down a little bit lower to the 50 which is secondary target we'd look at 104 65 so
i mean i think this is one of the better trade
setups getting ready to happen
in stocks. There's actually a few out there with
stocks. I like stocks better right now.
Yeah.
If we're looking at crypto,
I've got a few.
If there are none that
are that appealing, we just set up some
ideas and close it and wait.
There you go.
GRT here. uh, graph.
I like the pullback here, uh, into this area of, uh, as you can see here, the support resistance
area right here, low volume node. I mean, you have the huge volume. This seems like this is
done or nearly. So, um, usually what you'll do is you'll get a pullback into the low volume nodes
and then you'll get the reaction out of it because the market's not interested there. So I'm looking for a potential rally up
into this green box up here. It's about 33 to 35 cents. And if we break down lower here, obviously
that's no longer it, but that's my initial target. If we can get an impulsive breakout through that
though, I see no reason why we're not going to run at least up here to about
about a dollar, a dollar five up there through right, right now, the current pivots on the daily,
but they'll change by that time. But yeah, so I mean it looks like a pretty decent setup here.
We just need to get it moving up off there. I've got cream USDT here. It's the financial. Uh, I think if we can get a breakout
here above this swing high at 58, 68, I believe we've got a target up here of about 81, 75.
So we're kind of here with these, uh, you know, this higher low up off here,
looking for it to break out and kind of take us there. Obviously, if it doesn't break out,
guess what guys, the target doesn't exist. Uh, But if it does, that's where I'm interested in going.
And let's see here. DGN, USDT for your followers. It's a bunch of DGNs, right? But I can't lie.
You know, I was looking at this and I said, man, do I even want to bring this up? But man,
it looks pretty decent. it is what the market
is man that's where the interest is yeah it you know it's there right so potentially one and two
here this is one two looks like five waves up three waves down um so breaking out above wave
one here uh should get us a minimum expected wave three target up there at uh 0.05918 uh and then if you know if it just falls normal
38 to pull back and then 61 up here to five five gives us 0.07535 so that's kind of where i'm
looking the only other thing i've really um got here i heard you guys talk about miners uh mark
hit my initial target area here as you can see downside target yeah downside target here yeah yeah yeah
but again right here into this low volume node where you'd expect to get a
pop-up off there um it's 50 it's over 50 pullback so if
we can get a rally that breaks out above what is that 24
dollars and 65 cents there um we're headed up here to probably
177 dollars and a. This is just the larger
degree wave three minimum expected target. But as you can see, this is subdividing more. So
that target will go up higher. But that 177 area looks to be where I go. If it's going to continue
to pull back here, I'm looking at 13 and then 1135. I mean, 10 is there as the 78.6, but I don't
usually look at that. But yeah, so it continues further down 13, 1135. I mean, 10 is there as the 78.6, but I don't usually look at that.
But yeah, so it continues further down 13, 1135. The key is to break out above this
$24.65 area to get us moving up there. So that's what I'm looking at. That's what we'll see.
Again, a lot of trading is waiting for things to set up right
looking for a level to get through that you go okay now that it's gone through here then i'm
more likely to be correct than not and so that's where you get the if it does this might do this
or whatever so that's the way to look at it all right man i totally agree thank you also for
being patient and uh while we were trying to get it done, guys, everybody follow TX West Capital on Twitter X.
I'm going to Twitter X now.
I'm slowly transitioning.
Twitter X.
And yeah, I got spaces in 20 minutes.
I'm wondering what flood I'll be doing that from.
What's funny is I'm actually in Mario's building
and have not seen him yet.
I'm in Dubai in Mario's building.
We're going to do spaces in 20 minutes.
I haven't yet to see him.
So we'll see how that goes.
Maybe I'll get up there.
All right, guys, that's all I got for you.
Chris, thank you so much.
I'll see you all very, very soon.
Peace.
Sure.
Let's go.