The Wolf Of All Streets - Is the BTC crash over? Market analysis! w/@aigputoken | Crypto Town Hall

Episode Date: May 9, 2024

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chris what do you think of the market buddy how we doing just uh floating pouring yeah you know just pulling back i mean um i you know we're sitting just below the hourly pivots so uh we're in a you know a descending channel off that uh recent swing high there um on may 6th so know, if we can break out, you know, impulsively above this pivot, so that's probably right there around 61, 750, 61, 800, right around there. If we can do that, that's going to signal probably that the pullback is complete. Really need to break out above like 64, 420 area. But if we continue going down lower, you know, our next target to the downside here

is kind of this range at around 58, 820 to 59, 070. And that's on the Bitcoin USDT Binance chart. So, I mean, you know, just waiting for some confirmation of some kind of reversal going on other than that you know just buying our time right joe biden our time i knew you were going to go there couldn't help it uh you're all right rand you're here what's going on how is your uh show today again if if uh if there was any better indicator i didn't look at your numbers but uh of this like time-based capitulation post having hangover that we get every time it was so easily

predictable shouldn't youtube numbers and audience be it yeah well i mean if you look at the youtube numbers my show is probably on about 60 percent of what the normal numbers are so probably lost 40 percent of the of the viewers at the moment um yeah so i guess uh you know um no one's really interested it's a slow bleed down which is killing people while the bitcoin has a slow bleed down the alts that got getting murdered basically because there's just no no retail interest whatsoever but again it's normal we always say like selling may and go away and we never sell in may and go away we should yeah but we don't we have a hell of a lot more uh supply of all coins in general this time i would say than in the past right i mean we always had kind of at least like

the buoying of the rotation but we launched so many tokens in the last three months in this world there's just gotta be so many bag holders i want to ask you a question based on what's happened in crypto in the last 24 hours like do you think that trump is genuinely for crypto or do you think he's jumping on this narrative just because he realizes that it's something that Biden is firmly against and that is like a bunch of real...

So, I mean, like... But it doesn't matter. It doesn't matter, right? I mean, even if it's just that he... And listen, everybody, I will not discuss my political opinions generally, but whether he believes it or not... No, I don't think he believes it or understands it. I think he's a master of speaking to the audience that he's speaking to, for better or for worse. I mean, that's politics, so I don't know if that's a criticism or a compliment.

If he's talking to a pro-crypto audience, he's going to say pro-crypto things, but that wasn't the case in the past so you have to give him credit regardless of your feelings for him uh for at least uh speaking positively when the other side is clearly going on a full napalm carpet bombing attack against uh the industry right what do you think why do you think the dems are going for a full-on attack against uh bitcoin do you think it's because i'm not funding yeah no i i i'm not like a big tinfoil hat guy obviously right um but i'm in very close contact obviously with john deaton you know i'm supporting his campaign and running fundraisers uh i personally believe that elizabeth warren is the head of this entire snake. And I think we've had a lot of evidence that sort of confirms that. And I mean, he flat out said it when I interviewed him and talked to him last week, that he really thinks that this is about the far left and her specifically controlling everything,

like the view that the government needs to control everything and the push towards a central bank digital currency and towards having crypto effectively just controlled by the government. But what's interesting is that I somewhat believe that. I definitely believe you can see it very clearly now that they're even going after self-custody of Bitcoin, right? Bitcoiners, I think, believe that Bitcoin was safe. It had been deemed a commodity. There were no issues, but they're coming after self-custody. I think they just want to push all of the crypto money into places that they can tax and control. You know, like you will buy the BlackRock spot ETF

and you will like it. You will not custody your own crypto. And it's really terrifying. You know, he took it a step further and said he thinks it's about a central bank digital currency, which Elizabeth Warren has spoken about before, and sort of removing the competition there. And it's just, yeah, it's very scary, the attacks they're taking. What I found curious, though, is on this SAP story that's happening right now, you know,

for people who missed it, obviously, Congress is pushing and the votes are there in the Senate as well, to get rid of this sort of SEC rule that you have to get for custody. So sorry, I'm not articulating this very well. The SEC basically had passed a rule not long ago in a memo that said that if somebody wanted to custody crypto, if a bank wanted to custody crypto, that it was going to be viewed as a liability and not an asset, meaning that the bank or whoever the custodian is would have to have equal dollars in their account to match all the crypto. So obviously, that's not going to happen. They would want to view the crypto as an asset on their balance sheet. So it's actually quite insane.

So then the Bitcoin spot ETFs got approved. And you'll notice that the custodian for all of those spot ETFs almost is Coinbase, right? And that's because banks who actually before Biden were pushing to be able to custody, we're talking about State Street, BNY Mellon, the largest custodians on the planet wanted to be able to custody Bitcoin and could not. The minute the spot ETFs were approved, they started lobbying the SEC to change this rule. Right. And now it's like the Congress is forcing it. But Biden just came out and basically said he will veto this if it hits his desk, which to me makes no sense. If they were trying to push everything towards Wall Street, wouldn't they want State Street and BNY Mellon to be cussing this?

Right. So I'm confused, but I do think at the end of the day, it's massively, you know, coming from one particular person who's in control, who has control of that policy, and just about reigning in the industry. So Trump believes it or not is almost irrelevant. If he can say things that are the opposite of what the other guy is saying, it'll probably win him votes. I mean, what do you think, guy? I don't know. It's really like, you know, this seems as bad as a year ago. Like, you know, we thought Binance and Coinbase was bad. We now have, I mean, Robinhood got a Wells notice on Monday. Robinhood is registered and authorized to allow securities to be traded.

Robinhood met with the SEC 16 times trying to get clarity on this. Robinhood delisted everything that was passively listed in these cases without any evidence or securities. They delisted them all, and they still got a wealth notice. It's beyond me. Yeah. Lawyer. Listen, you are a lawyer, and you're giving us the thumbs ups all over the place here i mean what do you think of all this yeah i mean my sentiments are pretty much the same like i'm not phased at all when politicians

especially running for off like for president say things they didn't say before you know it doesn't mean to me that they're going to say it again. It's really not. Like you said, it wasn't something you would have said before. So great. It's better than nothing. And I think as for where this is all coming from, I think Balaji puts it pretty well when he says that if you shift your thinking

from central bank currency to central bank digital control, that's the push, right? These are the same people that would prefer, you know, notices to Twitter coming from the FBI to remove certain people. You know, this is about control. And I think it's central bank control. And I think there is a political push. Never mind everybody else. Everybody has their own individual reason. I mean, Warren seems to have a very strong individual reason, which may be coming from

over her head. But in the end of the day, this is people who believe fundamentally that that government control is good and that Bitcoin represents sort of a lack of that control. And they're right. Yeah, I'm worried. So did the one other point I was going to make about John Deaton, you just reminded me, was that he said that he said there's indisputable evidence, and this is definitely the case, that Elizabeth Warren's bills are literally being written by JP Morgan and Jamie Dimon, that she she works for the banks and the banks obviously don't want the competitor. And you can see, I mean, she literally like sat in the Senate with Jamie Dimon and he said, if it was up to him, they would eradicate it, get rid of it completely in the United States. And she's laughing in a sense. And you can tell that it was perfectly rehearsed. He said that to the point that they are literally writing her bills, which is funny because Elizabeth Warren basically made her reputation on her anger that nobody had gone to jail after the great financial crisis in 2008, 2009, that all the white collar criminals had gotten away.

Nobody was held accountable. And if he's correct, those are the people now writing the checks and paying the bills and writing this anti-crypto policy to some degree. So, listen, I can't speak to it. I'm just reflecting what he said and he's running against her. Yeah. I mean, I think that makes perfect sense. I mean, of course they are, right? Like you don't get into those positions of power. You get into those positions of power by saying those things, but still shaking those hands, right? So that doesn't surprise me. And I do absolutely think those hands. Right. So that doesn't surprise me. Um,

and I do absolutely think those hands are, are, you know, even without, without knowing what it is that he might know, uh, you know, just looking at the situation that does seem to be where the, the push is coming from. And it seems to be, you know, the effect is when you, I talk to people who are like diehard crypto and there's some of them are telling me now, like, look, I'm thinking maybe this cycle will end early because they're going to close all

the off ramps and this, and then all the, I can see where the FUD is going. And you know, on one hand, that's sort of inevitable, you know, to the extent that we're right about Bitcoin. Yeah. They're going to do everything they can to make it hard. And that's not going to work. But I think that there are the people who favor control, government control without much contemplation. That's where this heads.

So this is the group that's doing it. Gary, anybody else want to ring in? Have an opinion on this? Dare to speak politics? Hi there. Matt here. I just wonder whether there's a bit of misdirection going on here here because we're hearing all these attacks left, right and center on crypto. We've heard nothing for ages about CBDCs.

They were supposed to be rolled out this year. A lot of them were supposed to be rolling out this year. We've heard nothing. So I just wonder whether they will be able to say, yeah, we warned you and we warned you these assets were risky, etc. when they roll the CBDC out. And I just wonder where that's what's going on behind the scenes, because I just think it's really strange that it's gone so quiet on that front. It's interesting. I mean, Powell had

outright dismissed the idea of the United States even considering a CBDC at the Fed. So I don't know if that's, you you know people are speaking their book or talking and saying what they're supposed to say or if there's some actual disagreement as to what that future looks like but it was kind of dismissed in the united states as something that wouldn't even be considered for a decade or more but you know don't they kind of already have that don't they aren't we when we talk about a cbd sorry central cbdc aren't we talking about really them just being able to flip switches that they already have it may be like our fear is that they'd be able to target it becomes more about privacy and the lack of cash so yes i think to your point like their ability to pull levers and

control the money supply and such effectively is likened to that. But I think people are more afraid that like, you know, you didn't earn your social credits this week. You don't get to buy bread. You know, we're taking the money out of your wallet. I'm not saying that's going to happen, but that it increasingly exposes us to a China-like situation. If the central bank digital currency is not built with privacy. Matthew. Right. I think what I mean is that it's going to be more like a frog

in the boiling the frog situation where you have, instead of, oh, one day we've switched to a CBDC, you find in small ways what we have just looks more like one. Yeah, I think that that's accurate. Yep. Matthew, you had something to say there. For me now, I was just going to say there. For me now, I was just going to say, you're talking about it coming. I mean, it's accountability both ways.

I mean, potentially they can keep track of us, but supposedly with a proper CBDC, we should be able to keep track of them. And that's obviously something they don't want. So maybe that's why they're having pause for thought about it because they don't want to be accountable. You also have to imagine just technologically challenging and if you let the cat out of the bag with something like this you better nail it the first time if if the money goes wrong from some tech perspective or hacking i mean we've seen how you know often we have these exploits and such in crypto imagine that if it

was the literal international currency. I mean, do you believe that the government can create a secure digital currency? I have my doubts. I think there's a lot of doubts there, if you don't mind. I mean, I've spoken to 13 different nation leaders on their CBDC plans over the last year. And it's a real shit show, to put it bluntly. They're very confused and really trying to figure out what this even means and how to approach it. But I think one of the biggest glaring concerns that I've noticed is, you know, we have a big background at our R&D company in

data and data privacy. And that bank data has never been specifically available to the Fed before or another major government besides maybe China. So think about what happens when your government knows exactly what's in your bank account, exactly what you spend on every single day, every month, and can target that advertising without trend analysis or guesswork. It's just exactly what you can afford. And it gets to a very, very subliminal, deep kind of involvement in our psyche that I think is going to cause problems. Having said that, I think CBDCs would be great for government to government transactions or internal government transactions to provide that transparency to the public. I think they're great for cross-border. But for people, there's a lot of valid fears, I think that we all should be aware of.

Wasn't the intended topic. But I mean, do we believe that a CBDC could be built with proper privacy controls like cash where that would not be an issue? Or are we also, you know, skeptical of the government that we don't think that could happen? I know Chris Giancarlo used to be the head of the CFTC. I think it's called the Digital Dollar Project, but he has either a non-for-profit or... I've spoken to him about it years ago, where he basically has taken it upon himself to go around the world and say, listen, understanding CBDCs are inevitable in a lot of places and try to convince them how to include those privacy features in the CBDCs. So there is a movement for that. It's James here. I've got a few thoughts on this. I wrote research a couple of years ago on this.

And I've been looking at the Bank of England and they've been looking at central bank digital currencies for about eight or nine years, quite seriously. And it's nothing has ever got off the starting block with them. And I think the main reason is political. Because of all these privacy concerns, it's going to take a long time for them to get pushed through Parliament. Because there's always been a question yes you can put in these privacy concerns but because of their centralized nature any nefarious government could just remove them at will when they want to so they might say oh i promise not to monitor what you spend but that's you know kind of a hollow promise, really. I think the important thing about Bitcoin is that it actually

keeps any nefarious government in check. And I recently went to a Human Rights Foundation event in London. It was very interesting there because it was not 80% of the discussion was around Bitcoin, because of it's, it keeps nefarious governments in check. You know, there were so many stories of, you know, Alexei Malvany's political campaign being funded by Bitcoin. And, you know, I think it's a very interesting point that Bitcoin will always be there and CBDCs will never replace Bitcoin.

Yeah, James, I think you're absolutely correct. But, you know, if the worst of our fears are true, even in the United States, this attack on self-custody could effectively make it so you can gain exposure to Bitcoin as an investment, but not hold it and have that control. I mean, if they come wholesale after self-custody, which seems like a reasonable assumption based on Samurai Wallet and the actions against Metamask and a lot of the bills being proposed. If you can't self-custody Bitcoin, do you really have that heads? Yeah, I mean, I suppose you're right, but then there would be uproar. Janet Yellen was saying the problem with cash is you can't charge negative interest rates. And that would be a fantastic thing from a central banker's perspective.

You could charge negative interest rates. And if you look at Bitcoin adoption around the world, it's been a bit disappointing in the developed market. But in the emerging market, it's been very popular because there's sort of a grassroots need for it. If you start charging negative interest rates through a CBDC, I can tell you that a lot of people would start moving to something like Bitcoin in that respect. And there'd be a huge anti-government movement against any kind of forcing the population to use something,

particularly in America, where it's supposed to be land of the free. Supposed to be, indeed. Mike, I would love your perspective on this, actually, kind of outside looking in. Yeah, it's definitely from the outside looking in. I look at it as most of this just shows the strength of the revolutionary technology. It's just part of the nuances we're we're going to go through and i feel sorry for people who just complain about it but it's just how overwhelming it is and i always

make me click over and look over to the coinmarketcap.com check that tether it's 111 billion dollars now i just remember looking at was two billion dollars there's an um sustainable unstoppable trend the technology is just better and all the major entities on the planet are just getting it and yeah let the governments push back but just like the state of massachusetts did versus apple in the 1980s but to me the bigger picture is all about i don't you know i don't want to tilt the subject too much but i see peaking signs in virtually all risk assets and bitcoin's just the riskiest i can dig in details on that if you'd like so first of all let's start with two you know peaked at five percent

crude oil looks like it peaked at 87 there's wti copper looks like it peaked at ten thousand dollars a ton so those are all the main risk assets now we all have and everything's kind of depending on this um s&p 500 to sustain above the 50 week moving average but if you overlay s&p 500 with bitcoin it's pointing lower the last time the s&p 500 rallied above the 50 week moving average was in november and the bitcoin was taking off and bitcoin gold ratio was rising everything is tilting down now. So I look at this as that massive pendulum that swung way too far for recession about a year ago and tilted way too far until soft landing is tilting back. And some of my key indicators are you just look at market cap of U.S. stock markets. It's now two times GDP. In 2007, it was about 1.3 times. You look at the VIX, the VIX volatility index, a 52-week moving average minus the T-bill rate. It's the lowest since 2007. Now, some of us who had good trading years in 2007,

remember that was our key indicator. You look at bond yields in the rest of the world. Just look at Chinese government bond yields. They're collapsing. I mean, you can't really trust their data anymore, but they're turning Japanese around 2.3%. It's very much, you know, what's over 230 basis points now below US 10-year olds. They used to be about the same. Then I look at some shorter-term indicators. Look at the S&P

500 versus its 100-week moving average. It's above 20%. That's usually not a good sign. You don't usually want to get long that asset. So, I look and then look at cash. And one thing I really enjoy people pointing out is how high cash levels are in money markets. It's the exact opposite. Just one simple statistic. You look at total market money markets in this country, $6 trillion. That's nothing compared to the market cap of the NASDAQ. NASDAQ right now, that's 20% of the, 27% of the NASDAQ market cap before the crash in 2007, it was 115%. and then i look at the most hated asset in terms of etfs gold still making new not making new highs but it's up another one percent today there's been massive et outflows etf outflows and then we had this big frenzy in bitcoin so the way

i look at is the bitcoin bitcoin that peak we had in um in 73,000 or so, was under the weight of a perfect storm for bullishness. Now it's all gone, at least for now. ETFs have been launched. We've been through the halving. And we all know beta was on a tear. To me, it's all tilting over to the hangover. The question is how long it lasts. So I think just a normal correction in beta, which is 10% S&P 500, is what we're going to have to get through.

We haven't done it yet. And to me, that's what the leading indicator of which is 10% SB500. Well, we're going to have to get through. We haven't done it yet. And to me, that's what the leading indicator of Bitcoin is pointing out to now. One thing beneficial about that is I used to trade and I used to take positions and things. And if I had a bias like that, I'm sure I'd have some short positions on and I would fully expect something to go wrong. And I don't anymore. So maybe that's one of the benefits of sitting a little bit more from the outside.

Can't we make the argument? Yeah, I was literally going to ask you, James, so go ahead. So, Mike, I love your work, and I read it quite regularly. And there's one thing I've always kind of disagreed with you on, is calling Bitcoin a risk asset. It is highly volatile, that's for sure and so in some ways it is a risky asset but it is is it a risk asset i mean if we look fundamentally at what bitcoin is it's the hardest asset around and the closest hardest asset to it is gold and they they have remarkably, they've correlated remarkably this year. In fact,

the correlation to something like equities has declined remarkably too. And the only time that, say, equities, a risk asset and Bitcoin really correlated well was in 2022 and 2023 when the Fed was very hawkish. So rising interest rates make stores of value look less attractive, emerging stores of value like Bitcoin in particular. And things like treasuries, other stores of value, look more attractive. But now we're seeing a reversal of that monetary policy. I don't think we can say that Bitcoin is a risk asset.

If we see inflation come down or even stay high and growth really fall, the Fed may be forced to cut interest rates. And I believe actually they'll cut late, but they'll cut more than 25. The first cut will be 50 basis points because they do knee-jerk reactions. But I think it will be,

and this is the playbook historically for the Fed, that they do react late and they react aggressively like they did on the way up. And I think in that case, it would be construed that the Fed have made a policy error. And in that kind of scenario, that's where equities and Bitcoin really deviate. Equities don't tend to perform well emerging into recession, whilst something like Bitcoin would, because it is this store of value and a monetary policy hedge in that respect. Yeah, and James, to your point really quick before Mike, inequities never perform well after the pivot.

So those, I really appreciate those views, James, but I want to say prove it. And I'm just, as an ex-hedge fund guy, sitting in front of those value at risk models that, you know, you have your whole, your positions lined up. If you plug in S&P 500 down 10% and you expect Bitcoin to go up 30% or even go up or not go down, I say good luck with that one. I think you have to look, because it's such a young asset, you have to look conceptually at this. And that's the only way. You have to think fundamentally what it is. And that's why I believe it will move that way. I agree.

I don't disagree with it at all. But the big picture is money talks. And, you know, this famous British guy said once that, you know, markets can remain irrational long as they can remain solvent. I'm just pointing out the facts of trading right now. And the big picture, I completely agree long term. But the thing is, people always point those things out sometimes at the wrong time. We all get that.

That's basic knowledge in this space. Declining, diminishing supply, and increasing demand and adoption. I get that. But right now, the thing is, you have to look at something like what happened in just what happened in every single time this beta goes down bitcoin goes down more it's the fastest horse in the race so to me that's the biggest risk now you need to get past that test we got to get past that test and right now it's it's fine but it's as far as a leading indicator just open up your your trading book on a saturday and sunday and you can see it's the only asset

the planet that's a risk asset that trades. Lawyer, did you have a comment or your mic's just up? I thought that you were there. Thank you. Sorry. Yeah, I'm micing. Sorry. Okay, go ahead.

Matthew, I saw you were trying to jump in there. Matthew, you're there? Okay. I tend to lean towards james opinion there i would love uh other people's opinions but i also think that uh go ahead matthew yeah sorry i was stuck on mute there for a minute but um yeah we um i agree with what was just said about the evolution and you know bitcoin coming into its own um later in the cycle i think that it's there's it's really there's no hard definition for what's a risk asset and i think that bitcoin is still in this in an evolutionary path it's evolving from being obviously in the early days it was totally speculative definitely a risk asset and it's

getting more and more of that safe haven status it It's still not got there because, as I say, there's no hard and fast definition about a risk asset. It's all about, it is about perception and opinions. And when the market does, you know, as you say, the Fed will probably act late and then they'll act too strongly, probably cause a bit of a crisis. When that happens, as I've always said, when there is eventually a crash, Bitcoin will be the one that rises out of the ashes first, because it will then take on its full safe haven status as digital gold. But for now, it's not. It's still definitely a risk asset, in my opinion. I love James risky asset, not risk asset. I thought that was excellent. And I tend to agree. Interestingly, I think, you know,

Mike, to your point about it, potentially leading and we talked about this quite often, I think on Mondays and Thursdays on YouTube. But if you fell on your head and ignore and went to a concussion for four years uh in the last cycle and you ignored all the macro and the fed and all this talk bitcoin would probably be in the post having hangover without any of it like this is what's happening on bitcoin right now is exactly what you would expect in may after the having for bitcoin regardless of anything else well i think the big part of that too is we waited a decade for these etfs we got it they set all the standards new standards for inflows got it

get it that to me proved to me that's the most significant leading indicator on the planet and i do like how james put that risk asset versus risky at it i get acid i get it i just look at it as having run real money and most people love to trade bitcoin i just look at it okay tip it used to trade three times a vol of beta and gold now i'm sorry i used to trade 10 times now it's about three times a vol of gold and s&p 500 and i still look at is i still see this rock i hate to say it but that stupid rock is beating stocks it's going to continue to do that and when we do have a normal backup all the high risky assets usually get hit first and there we go it just has that high and that may be a great buying opportunity but the problem is when people keep reading repeating the same mantra most of us have heard for over five years you get people too long they hit their stops and

then it goes too low and then then the other ones who are who have not buying on leverage can swoop in and buy more. Chris, I saw you giving some thumbs up and thumbs down and hearts and high fives. What are your thoughts on all this? Yeah, no, I think, you know, again, I think I think it's still kind of a risk asset, as you know, pretty much as being outlined here. I do think, though, you know, the same thesis I've had since I joined the space back in January of 2017, is that as it as it reaches these higher prices where you get the the bigger buy in by by the larger money that the people that tend to hold versus those that are selling knee-jerk reactions. I think that ends up bringing more stability to it. And I think as you bring more stability to it, it kind of moves away from that risk asset more

toward that store of value, that kind of narrative that, you know, that we all kind of wanted to get to. So, you know, I think right now we're still kind of, it's still, you know, quite heavily a risk asset, but I do think it's on its way to becoming more of that, that stable, more of that, that thing we're looking for it to be that store of value that encourages even more investment in it. But, you know, from a trading perspective, could you see a situation, you know, because I think if you look at all the charts, you know, everything kind of looks like it's bull flagging, right?

Stocks, NASDAQ, whatever. We've had this retracement. But if you zoom out, looks generally good. Could you see a world where we get that big retracement in the stock market, but Bitcoin continues up. Yeah, well, you know, when I look at charts, you know, I don't tend to look for correlations and whatnot, because correlations, you know, they're either there or they aren't, and they're rarely consistent. So I just happen to look at each market itself, each asset itself separately. And, you know, what I'm looking at with Bitcoin

says, you know, we go higher. So if something's happening with, you know, with with the stock market and, you know, it may be suddenly drops or something, you know, knee jerk reaction, maybe with Bitcoin. But I think overall, Bitcoin, you know, continues this this overall movement higher. DB, any thoughts? You haven't had the opportunity to speak yet. Honestly, these guys are far more intelligent than I am when it comes to the macro picture and all this stuff. All I can say is really how I feel having gone through more than one complete cycle at this point. And it's just a full on attack at this point. And I know we've been through this before. But it just it feels

different. And I hate saying that because everyone says this time's different. But it just feels different. That's all I'll say there. I really feel different um because they played their card so there's no there's no interpreting it any other way at this point yeah yeah for sure typically i'm a very optimistic person except for when it comes to the crypto space right now pessimist almost even realist and just to be clear you're not talking about price necessarily you're saying the approach that's coming towards it from the government correct yeah definitely i don't even look at the the price a lot of the time just the news and what's coming out and seeing the the way the market is moving and the trends and the l2 narratives and these tokens just launching with absurd

fully diluted values and the craziness that is it seems like it's just giving the politicians and the market makers all the fuel they need to step in and do things we do not want them to do and i don't put any of that off the table right now. Very well. Lloyd, and then Chris. Yeah, I mean, respectfully, I agree. It's crazy looking in, I guess. But if you've been through other euphoric parts of the cycle,

like in DeFi summer when you have like rebase tokens instantly going up $5 billion and they were just happening all day or whatever. Like, I agree with you, but I think things can get a lot hairier, you know, in this space. Chris? Yeah, yeah. Before Chris. No disagreement there for sure. Just to what Scott was saying, their cards are all on the table this time. We know exactly what they're trying to do and it's not kind of a hidden agenda at this point. And that's how it feels a little different. sense custody rule that would have in that in that situation consensus from both congress and senate meaning both parties effectively that he would veto that i mean tells you all you need to

know i'm sorry it does chris you had a comment i think isn't this kind of like the the success of bingo the success of bitcoin bingo card of like you know then they attack it from above like i think that it almost seems like okay we're going through something that we needed to. Yeah, we needed to, but the part after that is you have to win. You know, I guess the attack was always going to come, but it's not coming everywhere in the world. This is pretty like aggressive and pretty United States focused. I mean, even in Europe where you can argue, you know,

the industry seems to have embraced Mika to some degree because I think any clarity was better than no clarity. Mika is pretty crappy for the industry, you know, the regulatory framework in Europe, but at least they gave a regulatory framework. There's no intention seemingly of them doing that here. It's much worse here than anywhere else. This is arguably the worst place on the planet for crypto. The United States is pretty nuts. Chris, you were waiting to speak. Yeah, sorry about that. Having some issues with the internet here. I just wanted to kind of point out just about markets in general. So, you know, everybody feels pretty, pretty attacked right now in crypto. You know, we've got Biden

and Warren and the SEC and Gensler, you know, all of them jumping in. They're doing all this and up. So that tends to lead to everybody feeling like, oh, my gosh, you know, how can this possibly go up? But here's the thing with markets. Generally speaking, tops are when there's good news coming out and prices is not really making any new highs. Bottoms usually happen when there's bad news and prices are making lower lows. So, you know, if we look at that and we say, okay, well, you know, there's a lot of discussion about maybe, you know, the 73,000 was the high of the cycle or something. When you look at markets in general, it doesn't make a whole lot of sense because we are getting all this negative crap right now with, you know, with government and with everything going on with

crypto here in the US. And, you know, again, Robinhood getting the Wells notice and, you know, just all this silliness going on. So if even if I strip everything else out of it, for me personally, when I'm looking at this, I'm saying, OK, well, this doesn't gel with how a top is usually coming in. A top is usually, again, a lot of excitement. A lot of everybody's still excited. Things have got to go higher, and it's not making any real higher highs. But here we have all this negative stuff happening in what's amounted to just a range for two months now. So I think a lot of people are going to get caught off sides when this thing kind of rallies and breaks out higher scott did you talk about the the video of trump

i'm guessing you've covered that uh we just yes i mean we spoke generally about the it's kind of how this whole conversation started was generally about the fact that um whether we were trying to parse whether it was genuine understanding of the industry or whether, you know, it was just a talking point because the, you know, Biden's clearly going against it. So Trump says he's for it, but we kind of decided it doesn't really matter. It's a pretty clear line in the sand, but yeah, but yeah, we discussed it. I was shocked when I saw, did you see Ryan Selkis, the video, Mario? No, what was it? No, no, no. What was it? Okay. So I don't know the whole story. Ryan was just kind of putting it out on here. So Selkis, by the way, I mean, I think admittedly has said that he was a Biden voter. Obviously,

he's gone very aggressively to the other side. He's been supporting Trump. He was supporting Vivek before that. But I guess he said his friend was a Trump NFT card collector and said, Ryan, you have to go to the... Trump did like a... Literally for all the NFT holders of a certain amount, he held a conference. And he was like, Ryan, you got to go. Maybe you'll meet him. And then all of a sudden, Ryan posted a video of him literally on stage at the podium speaking with trump standing behind him and like shaking hands and hanging out with trump you didn't see that oh shit what yeah what we should invite him to the space to kind of give us an insight into that discussion yeah do and whether he's at the behind the scenes discussion with trump and his team it's actually fascinating um and also there is. And also, there's that video

I wanted to ask you about. We should get Ryan Selkis. I know you're close to him. We should get him on tomorrow if he's available or next week. But second is the... Also, do you see the comments on yesterday's space or no?

What specifically? Sorry. I told the audience to comment their thoughts on the space. weren't really dj yesterday since you couldn't hear and you weren't there so i took advantage of it oh and i said to to the audience to comment the truth on whether they like the space or not i actually haven't gone through the comments but there's a lot of comments they're targeted at whether the space i'm like guys comment if you like the space or not so scott sees it maybe allows us to do more D-Gen spaces. I was on the clean, so I couldn't hear anything. I kept trying to join.

It was glitching. I know. There's a reason I went fully D-Gen yesterday. Do you know, by the way, do you know pogs, the little circular cartons that you kind of hit on the ground and they flip in the 90s? Do you remember those collectibles? Yeah, yes.

I'm a human person who was alive in the 90s. Yes. Yeah, exactly. So we actually had Pogs. They're turning into like a token, NFTs we invested. We actually, I even went as far as getting them on stage and talking about how they've tokenized the IP of Pogs and you can play it now, I think through an NFT or token.

We invested, so I don't know how it works. But I got them on stage and started talking about pogs and how they've kind of onboarding the whole IP onto Web3. So that's how far I went down the digital path. That's cool, though. I love that stuff. It's funny, you guys. Obviously, I don't know about...

I'm not always thrilled with 90% of the things that are launched, the structure of how they're launched, et cetera. But like the ideas of these things coming to web three in a superior environment, that makes sense. I love it. You know, I think that there's incredible things that are being built in web three. They haven't gained traction yet, but something like that, that's amazing. I mean, that that's, you know, that's the future. Yeah. I, I, I, I geeked out cause I was, as a kid, there's like that's you know that's the future yeah i i i geeked out because it was as

a kid it's like you know child really i i loved pogs and i i come from a from a country it's always you know it was an advanced country so always behind you know like europe are always a step ahead of other countries by the time you guys moved on from pogs and like moved on to other so you're playing pogs now you know got them yeah i just got them i just got the last year and i'm talking about the characters but anyway so i'm talking about projects that are doing the right thing we do have and good to have joe on stage joe has been a long time and we do have ai gpu and you guys you know we talked about decentralized gpu in in many of the other spaces but you guys kind of do something different who's behind the account guys behind ai gpu yeah so there's a and thanks for having us by the way in this opening conversation has been

very intriguing um there's quite a robust team um we have bifurcated it into a back-end and front-end team if you will so we have a token operation in dubai that'll hand now before before going sorry man before going to team i was asking for your name just so I can address you. Oh, you can call me maestro. My circle, I'm guessing you can also call me maestro Mario, if you choose, if you so desire. You can call you can call me sexy beast. My show is your identity public or not?

It's public to our clients, which is where I'm on the operating side, but on the token side, it's not I don't mind you. It's public to our clients, which is where I'm on the operating side, but on the token side, it's not. I am a US citizen and there are some risks that we've assessed. So I know what you mean. Yeah. Scott Melkers is not his actual name. Scott Melkers actually defeat sides. So, so defeat is his actual name, but my show is good to have you, man. Can you tell us more about, so I was going through your website as well. You know, glad to have you on the show. But what is the solution?

So you guys – the website is really clear. I like it. It's really neat. The problem – and you kind of summarize it in the following. The problem is GPUs – anyone that knows anything about AI knows that this is probably one of the problems. The efficiency of GPUs and the cost of GPUs and compute power is one of the biggest problems for the industry. So you talk about the GPUs not being optimized for generative AI in the current markets. It's like they're kind of a step behind. And you enhance their performance by a pretty hefty percentage, which is really exciting. And then you save, obviously, clients money. So the problem you're solving is one we all know about. But I'm genuinely curious, maybe first first before digging into how you solve it, maybe for anyone in the audience that's not deep in the AI space.

What is the problem exactly? What are GPUs without getting too technical? And how do you guys solve the problem? Yeah, so GPUs are graphics processing units, you know, historically have been used for 3d rendering of files or standing up in stacks uh sorry i had a call coming in let me make sure there's something yeah put your put your just uh put your phone do not disturb anyone on stage should probably just for yeah just for the moderator we should get all our speakers to make sure their phones are dnds should be a policy yeah go ahead man yeah so so um, so basically, um, you know,

more recently with the boom in AI, we've seen a huge trend in, in GPUs for AI applications. And basically there's some GPUs that work very well for AI right out of the box and others that don't. And we can take a look at both sides of that supply chain and actually optimize non-AI GPUs for AI compatibility and also take current AI GPUs and extract more performance. And I can tell you how that works whenever you feel. Yeah, so keep going down that path because I want to understand the point that you've made through your website is like the current GPUs are not really optimized for AI.

But that kind of caught me by surprise. Why is that? And how do you guys solve it? Like, you know, you've got much bigger companies, obviously, that are focusing on this problem. Where does your edge come in? It actually was reverse engineered from a government contract. So we were working for a police force was they wanted to be able to detect, is someone carrying a gun under their shirt? Does someone's face match up with warrants? Things like this from street cameras and public access cameras they have.

But the issue and the challenge that borned and birthed this whole project was that we had power limitations and we had compute infrastructure limitations, and that was not changing. So we had to look to the software to see what we could do to extract more performance to carry the load of the machine learning product. So we started from scratch. We stripped off everything, had to create our own driver's operating system with the clean user interface. And then we got more into machine learning tools like compilers and so on. And we were successful. And that's when the light bulb clicked. And we said, Okay, we can do this for any type of compute resource. And when AI

became the trend, it was very clear that that's, that's where we wanted to focus. But then but the question I have for you is, how do you guys, I'm not sure how much money you've raised, but how do you guys compare? How can you be more efficient than Nvidia or Sapphire or Intel, all these big guys? Well, I mean, I'll tell you this, like our current proof of concept client came from one of the companies you just mentioned, and they went from paying $300,000 a year to just 70k with us. And at that point with 100,000 users,

they were only running to 22% of the available resources we provided them. They've since grown in about nine months to 200,000 users and are only clocking about 40% of the available resources. So even from a big manufacturer, they can operate and grow 150% on less than a quarter of the cash at this point yeah i think one of the parts he's missing here explaining mario and excuse me if i jump in if i'm wrong please tell me but it's really intensive the gpu use that you need for ai and basically they're it's like using uh like think of render on solana but for well kind of like render but it's more for gpu

where you can just pay for the usage you're doing instead of buying all the hardware um i mean i really do see a huge future for this for this industry um and there's a couple of them out there that's why i'm really interested in how you guys are different. It does save them a lot of money, right? There is going to be success in this area because big enterprise will use this for sure. Yeah. The issue is when you're dealing with a decentralized network where the company stands in the middle and brokers someone else's GPUs to somebody who pays by the hour, the company itself doesn't own

the assets and therefore can't optimize their performance. So what we're doing is more of a B2B and business to government approach in the early phases, where we're locking up like year long contracts, building custom stacks for these clients and their specific needs, looking at where they are in their requirements of their product and their user base day one and where they project they'll be at the end of the term of our contract and making sure when we deploy their specific server or servers that they have headroom to grow and even grow past what they're projecting. So this is very different because we're centralized and it's not a decentralized network.

So their edge, Joe, is the decentralized aspect of it, which obviously is a no-brainer, but just to better understand what makes you more efficient because I just don't understand how decentralization leads to more efficiency. It's generally the opposite. We're actually saying the same thing. Decentralization is less efficient.

We are centralized. So we are partnered with an Indian nation building this server farm and will expand into a data center in North America. Okay. Sorry to interrupt you, man. You're good. So you're decentralized. You're good. Can you, so you're decentralized. Yeah, you've got a token on base. So, where does the token come in?

What's the decentralized aspect of what you do? So, is the GPU, the solution itself is centralized, but access to it is through a decentralized token? Exactly. access to it is through a decentralized token exactly so the idea is to have a fully transparent financial loop where we can take revenues from the token to expand what we've built and thus take revenues from the gpu farm and on regular like monthly basis do buyback and burns from the token lp in order to create deflationary pressure on the token asset itself and benefit all holders okay so i want to go back to my original question joe feel free to jump in anytime you know me and you love to do these back and forth but

my original question is um if what you're saying is true like if you guys are increasing efficiency by 60%, up to 60%, that's still crazy. 5%, 10% is insane in terms of cost-based efficiency. What I'm trying to understand is how did you guys, and sorry to press on this, I'm sure your valuation is not a couple of billion dollars. Again, correct me if I'm wrong. And I'm sure you haven't raised $500 million. How are you able to reach that solution with such limited capital when you're competing against these juggernauts? Well, we're not building GPUs, right? So we're sourcing from those juggernauts, and then we're taking that metal and we're optimizing it.

Okay, so optimizing it from a software perspective can i give okay can i give an analogy talking about joe can i give an analogy it's kind of like instead of buying like the lamborghini sv whatever uh you buy a supra and then you put in some extra parts to soup it up to go just as fast yeah is that kind of what you're doing yeah exactly but it also lends us like a really unique position because when you listen to people like elon musk saying our gpus are harder to get than diamonds what he's talking about is ai gpus that are ready to go out of the box plug and play for machine learning but where we have an edge is

we can tap into the gaming GPUs, the non-AI compatible GPUs, and we don't get stuck in the supply chain. And we can use parallel processing in our proprietary methods to make these gaming GPUs AI compatible. And that's a very unique edge. What has the acceptance been like when you talk to some of the enterprise players? Great. We have about eight to 10 clients right now that are in our backlog, and that's only transpired over the last 30 days organically. We had no outbound reach. It was just from promoting this company and the token. I got on several one-on-ones with clients, and we had three LOIs,

which, of course, are non-contingent, to be clear, but prior to starting this endeavor on the token side with like a digital casino, sports betting company, and another generative AI company. But yeah, the client retention is interesting as well because our current client is about nine months into their contract and they're about to re-up for a little over double the money and two years instead of one year so so far we've got you know the concepts proven and we're just ready to scale it do you have projections of revenue gotcha yeah those are in our white paper we have some revenue projections i will say there's

their projections so if anything that's probably the most speculative part of the white paper because you don't know what you don't know until you get there but uh can i sorry can i can i dig into the numbers what's your fdv how much have you raised? You're not listed yet, as far as I understand. If I'm wrong, correct me. Who are your investors? When are you listing? We're self-funded. A lot of us on our leadership team, one of my partners was Bitcoin, 84 cents. I was ETH sub a dollar, 2013, 2012, early adopters. So we started in blockchain and then got into advising, consulting, and then a lot of institutional and government contracting. And just kind of had a backbone of a collective as a R&D company over the years. So, yeah, I mean, we have enough funds to do this on our own. How much have you spent so far? And when are you listing the token? What's your strategy

listing the token, etc? Yeah, apologies, because I am here in Miami. That's fine. It's not that loud. Don't worry cool cool uh would you repeat the question yeah so how much have you so how much capital have you spent so far do you have a listing date and i'm asking now the questions we'd usually ask if we want to invest in a project are you accepting capital and i'm seriously asking no um i'm not interested in accepting capital at this time we that's not nice man i'm the host here like we have some decor i deserve it no we can do otc deals on the token to an extent but the truth is like we wanted to do a fair launch right we didn't want to have and also when we're when we're dealing with vc or pe funding because we're partnered with the only Indian nation or Native American Indian nation

that did not sign treaties with either the U.S. or Canada. We are going through a deep, deep dive with our attorneys spending quite a lot of money. When it comes to what we've spent, we're probably reaching over $500,000 just on legal in the last few months. It's probably since like January. And then we have, I think, probably about a, I don't know. I mean, collectively, maybe about a million dollars we put into this thing. Your token is already listed, right? No, we're doing a fair launch.

What we want to do is, you know, having been in the space for a long time um when you pick a launch date and just go for it there's a lot of problems that can happen between you know so we're looking more on community growth metrics so we want to see like 3 000 active people in our in our telegram and 10 000 on twitter and then we'll launch within three to four days yeah i highly recommend people check out aigpu obviously they're a sponsor of the show but i actually like what you guys are doing i think more projects should go down the fair launch path um i think that's it untapped um you know there's a lot of a lot of criticism of the whole vc model yeah even i think it could be done right uh the fair launch model is really exciting i know i know ran did one

recently for one of his meme tokens and it worked out really well well you don't have especially if you guys have the capital you need yeah i'd like i'd like to do some sort of deal if we can some sort of otc deal just for tokens that will become your media partner if it gets joe a stick of approval because i like your solution already up to the 15 minute mark but i want to continue the conversation for another couple of minutes because i really like the solution. Joe, is there any holes you can poke? I'm not the technical one. You're a lot more technical than I am. Thanks for jumping on last minute. But it just seems like a really interesting solution.

If what they're saying is true and Maestro is – Maestro, would you talk to yourself to me if we work together? Yeah, of course. Behind the scenes? Cool. So Maestro, who I'll reveal his identity once he tells me behind the scenes, he seems to know the answer. I'm joking, by the way, man. Don't worry. Relax. He seems to know the answer to everything.

But what I also show, is there any holes you can poke anyway? No. I mean, look, Mario, to be honest with you, this is one of the better projects, I think, that you've brought up on stage. I was looking. I initially came on stage? I was looking. I initially came on and I was thinking, okay, great, another GPU, decentralized farm, a robot,

and there's like 100 of them already, right? And, yeah, that technology is going to work, right? But there's only going to be – there'll probably be, just like in cloud computing, there'll only be like three or four winners. And what these guys did is they centralized it and it makes a lot of sense and then they're using you know equipment and bringing it up to speed to act as quickly as these to go to market ready ai uh units it just makes so much sense to me um i'm actually really interested in you guys just to put some money into.

It also brings a new floor price, guys. When you think about what's the end result for the customer, they're going to have faster generations, faster cooldown rates. That's a better user experience. It's a better product speed. And that's what AI is really fundamentally. If you look at the core value proposition of AI right now, it's speed, it's not intelligence. Intelligence has to be trained. So when we get things moving faster, they generate more heat, you got to cool them down faster. And then the end result is,

we can save a lot of money. I'll give you one quick example. When we built a stack of, I believe it was 10 RTX 49. These are gaming GPUs, for our first client, we were able to extract similar performance to one NVIDIA H100. And for that, we're doing a proof of compute exercise that we're sharing publicly within the week. Maybe a little more, give us a buffer, like a week to 10 days. We had some travel going on to get back to the farm but um you know we want to put our money where our mouth is and show everybody like this is real this is true and the only way to do it is to own the metal um so it's interesting and i appreciate the positivity i'm also open to challenging questions so don't hold back

yeah so i want to do um so what i want to do i've just messaged my team behind the scenes like i want to get you on more shows i want to be part of it um i love the concept you're doing a fair launch i love the solution as well it's not what i expected when i first saw the name obviously title ai gpu i'm like all right cool another decentralized gpu yeah um so i'd love i'd love so we have a weekly AI show, I think one, once or twice a week. Um, we're pretty deep in that space. Um, so yeah.

And Joe is usually an asshole. So for him to kind of compliment you guys, another, another really positive thing. Um, but yeah, so, so I'm sure a lot of people in the audience will reach out to you to kind of, uh, deploy capital. You have the money. So just say no to them. Um, and because you have do a fair launch i'm gonna reach out as a client i'm gonna reach out to you you could reach out as a you could be a client i

want to be an investor because i'm the host i can i deserve again he said yes i'll try to convince them but on a serious note and for full transparency for the audience we're not invested um there's just a paid sponsorship um not even tokens i don't think we we got paid for yet for this one as far as i understand but i'd love um some tokens and so essentially what you're planning to do is once you get 10 000 followers um 10 000 followers on twitter then you'll you'll uh but i think you need to create more traction i think you're like the vc model and the launchpad model the existing model gets a lot of traction because you know everyone's vested but it becomes people following you just for the whole for that pump and then they give don't give a fuck anymore so when you're doing it the way you're doing it it's a lot more organic so the numbers won't be as high

but the engagement will be a lot higher and the chart i think you're doing it the right way we'll build organically without any cell pressure on launch exactly we want it exactly we don't want anybody to have like a few people that went out because we did a private or pre-sale in the short term like yeah but you could you could maybe you could always lock them up you know the solution there is always a lot of period um yeah but it's based on under that as you know it's like it's when you go from like the vc to private equity side right a year to two year vesting terms can be quite common but when you come into the crypto space it can be some people might have their expectations around a few weeks to a few months and for that it still gets a

little tricky so um that's that's a big reason why we just wanted to wait um we know what we have if we can get out of the gate and prove some more success um then we can make some of those you know otc or vc deals deals with a bit more leverage. I've sent you and you already replied. I appreciate it. I'm guessing it's you that replied on Twitter DMs. I've sent you through my WhatsApp number. But yeah, like such a fascinating project. Not what I expected. I'm really glad for the team to bring you on the show.

I would love to do more. I'm so sorry to step on you, but I did not reply and I didn't see that. Um, just go in the chat. Uh, well, whoever's running your account. Oh,

gotcha. Yeah. One of my partners is there as well. Okay. I understand. Uh, cool. Cool.

Yeah. Yeah. Um, yeah. So, so yeah, really interested in more with you, Joe,

I'll connect you. I'll ask permission. I'll connect you to them on WhatsApp as well. Anyone in the audience just hit up AI GPU on stage. One of those cool little gems that came up that's going down the fair launch path. And just kind of, I like these little gems like this. It's not getting the attention I think it deserves. We'll dig into a bit further, of course, dig into the solution and get a group chat with the team and maybe do another AI show and get a bit more technical with you guys.

But it was an interesting discussion. It meant to be 15 minutes. It went for 21 minutes. It was really cool. So it's been really discussion. It meant to be 15 minutes. We went for 21 minutes. It was really cool. So it's been really fun. I hope the audience enjoyed it as well. Otherwise, for the audience, first check out AIGPU. Thanks for sponsoring.

I get a good indicator that the sponsor is good when we have speakers that were there prior to the sponsorship segment staying on stage. It means they like the project. And you got three. That's pretty high. Trust me. It's like 50% of the panel is still here. But yeah yeah so just kind of for the audience let us know in the comments your thoughts and i'm being serious look your thoughts not only on aigpu but on this space

versus yesterday's one it's not who's who's a better um who's better host it's more about the topics that were covered that's what i'm really interested in uh what type of do you want to mix up both sometimes dj and sometimes more macro and legal etc industry focused uh and use um we'd love to get your thoughts the audience uh on the way you'd like us to focus um but otherwise yeah it's a good show um you know scott any wait he's still there scott ah he he jumped off uh you missed out at james. Oh, I'm here. I listened to the entire thing. I just missed. My thumb was bad on the mic button. So watch your words, buddy.

Damn it. I was just about to say that AIGPU, Scott's not here. So he does not get any special treatment. But did you? It sounds like nobody's getting special treatment. It's the best part is these guys fund it themselves. So they told you to fuck off right in front of all of us. Okay.

All right. We're going to jump off right in front of all of us. Okay. All right. All right. We're going to jump off, guys. Thank you so much, everyone. Really appreciate it. I'll see you again today, Thursday. See you again tomorrow, same time.

Bye, everyone. Thanks, guys. That was great.