The Wolf Of All Streets - Link Jumps 40% - When Will Bitcoin Skyrocket?

Episode Date: February 7, 2024

Bitcoin ETFs are breaking new records almost every day, but why it does not affect the price of the underlying asset - Bitcoin? At the same time, Chainlink is up 40%, becoming a silent champion of the crypto market. I am talking to Matt Hougan from Bitwise and Chris Inks from TexasWestCapital about the latest developments in crypto - please tune in at 9 am EST! Matt Hougan: https://twitter.com/Matt_Hougan Chris Inks: https://twitter.com/TXWestCapital ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEK DAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/   ►►OKX SIGN UP FOR AN OKX TRADING ACCOUNT THEN DEPOSIT & TRADE TO UNLOCK MYSTERY BOX REWARDS OF UP TO $60,000!  👉 https://www.okx.com/join/SCOTTMELKER  ►►TRADING ALPHA READY TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS? THE BEST TRADERS IN CRYPTO ARE RELYING ON THESE INDICATORS TO MAKE TRADES. USE CODE ‘2MONTHSOFF’ WHEN VISITING MY LINK.  👉 https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker   ►►THE DAILY CLOSE BRAND NEW NEWSLETTER! INSTITUTIONAL GRADE INDICATORS AND DATA DELIVERED DIRECTLY TO YOUR INBOX, EVERY DAY AT THE DAILY CLOSE. TRADE LIKE THE BIG BOYS. 👉 https://www.thedailyclose.io/   ►►NGRAVE This is the coldest hardware wallet in the world and the only one that I personally use. 👉https://www.ngrave.io/?sca_ref=4531319.pgXuTYJlYd ►►NORD VPN  GET EXCLUSIVE NORDVPN DEAL - 40% DISCOUNT! IT’S RISK-FREE WITH NORD’S 30-DAY MONEY-BACK GUARANTEE. PROTECT YOUR PRIVACY! 👉 https://nordvpn.com/WolfOfAllStreets   ►►COINROUTES TRADE SPOT & DERIVATIVES ACROSS CEFI AND DEFI USING YOUR OWN ACCOUNTS WITH THIS ADVANCED ALGORITHMIC PLATFORM. SAVE TONS OF MONEY ON TRADING FEES LIKE THE PROS! 👉 http://bit.ly/3ZXeYKd  Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://twitter.com/scottmelker   Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.io   Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe   Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c   #Bitcoin #Crypto #Chainlink The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

Outflows from GBTC have slowed to a trickle and inflows are now larger than outflows into the other products. Why aren't we seeing price go up? We are in one of those boring and needed narrative parts of the market that seemingly makes people lose their minds. But Link is up 40%. I'm going to ask Matt why, and then he's going to say, Scott, why? Because he doesn't know the answer, neither do I. Just didn't want to spoil the title, but it is up 40%. I've got Matt Hogan from Bitwise and, of course, Texas West Capital on the back end. We're going to take a look at the markets, all the news, and, of course, talk about what's happening with ETFs and what the next narratives are to get this market moving. Let's go. what is up everybody i'm scott melker also known as the wolf of all streets before we get started

please subscribe to the channel and hit that like button gonna go ahead and just bring on matt so he can tell us why Link is up so high. What does your market analysis say, Matt? It's right there in the title. Yeah, I think it's more people buying and selling, I think is driving the price up. That's why I get the big bucks. Yeah, I don't know.

We did an internal report on it and we came up with very little. So I just want you to tell me. Yeah, same. I dug in. I'm going to just ask Chris to look at the chart later. But it seems that whales are buying. That was what I got.

$50 million whale purchase. Cool. Seems like a non-event. And then RWA narrative, right? Real world asset narrative, tokenization, all coming to link. And to which I say, how is that different than yesterday? But I love crypto for this. I love crypto for this. Price goes up and we assign a narrative. But the real, I mean, the real world asset narrative, I think will be big in this cycle.

Obviously, you have Larry Fink out there saying tokenize everything, right? I'm going to ask you about that. We weren't planning to talk about it, but do you think that's a this cycle thing? Or do you think this is going to be one of those? we see the seeds planted, but it takes a lot longer than we expect? That's my view. Yeah. It's the latter is my view. I love the idea. I love talking about it. I love that it brings people into the space, but in terms of when we're going to see many, many billions and maybe trillion dollars of assets. I think that's the next cycle thing. We'll start to see a little, right? We've seen tokenized treasury funds come online. We've seen people experiment with that, but I still think we're in that experimental phase.

Yeah, I was talking to Tom Dunleavy about this yesterday, but this reminds me of like the first DeFi summer or the first NFT craze or the first metaverse. And everybody thought that the, you know, we were going to be living next to Snoop in a mansion in the metaverse for $5 million for a plot of land. And all of a sudden it was worth like five grand in a bag of Skittles and it just didn't happen. Right. And so I think that this is one of those things that will go very fast when it does, but I

don't think that it's built yet. I just don't think the plumbing is there. But hey, maybe I'm wrong. Yeah, we'll get there. We might need legislative progress. We'll need, you know, traditional Wall Street firms just woke up to crypto broadly this year. And they'll need a few years to get organized around it and hire about it. But it will happen.

And besides, we need a driver of the next cycle, Scott. We can't just, you know, we always have to be looking ahead. Okay, well, let's talk about the driver of the next cycle, then we're gonna obviously do our ETF roundup. But what is the driver now that we have the ETF narrative passed to some degree, right passed for a narrative, obviously not passed for its fundamental value. and this like massive month long hangover since the approval. Yeah, I mean, look, I think when you talk about Bitcoin specifically, there are two short term drivers and then there's one long term driver of crypto broadly. So the short term drivers are really the fundamental flows are just beginning.

I think a lot of these initial flows were people switching out of GBTC or out of European listed Bitcoin products into lower cost ETFs. But the fundamental net new buying from financial advisors and family offices and institutions that have never held Bitcoin before, that's just starting right now, right? Those conversations kicked off after the ETF launched. They're starting to deploy capital. That will accelerate. So I actually think that's a story we'll be talking about in two or three months when the big platforms turn it on and you start to see these flows persist, which they've

been doing a great job of, but persist and maybe even re-accelerate a little bit. That, I think, is a big one. I think the others, the halving is going to be something we're talking about. People have avoided talking about it. It's usually this black hole that sucks us in and it's all we can talk about for six months. And the ETF has been sort of fending that off. But eventually, we're going to have to talk about $7 billion in supply disappearing on an annual basis. And I think that will be a big driver. And then outside of that, I think there's this broader

crypto halo. At the start of the cycle, the thing we talked about a bit wise was not the ETF. Because believe it or not, at the start of the cycle, no one thought the ETF was coming. It approved. Yeah. It was dead in the water, right? We'd been beaten down so much that we couldn't even string those three letters together. We were talking about the collapse in cost, the rise of layer two, what's going on with the Ethereum upgrade, and how that was going to bring real world use cases, not real world assets, but real world use cases into the mainstream. And I think that's going to create, I think that's going to happen in a major way in the next 18 months is going to be a big narrative. So those are my three.

I agree. I mean, I'm a huge ETH bull. I think I love the fact that it's been lagging, but even with what you just described, now all people want to talk about is a Ethereum spot ETF. They don't want to talk about any of it. We have James Safer here, of course. SEC just delayed Invesco US and Galaxy. Ethereum ETF 100% expected. And more delays will continue to happen in coming months. The only day that matters for spot Ethereum ETFs at this time is May 23rd, which is VanEck's final deadline date. So here we are back to having this ETH date that's like the January 10th of Bitcoin.

So they had to make a decision. They couldn't kick the can down the road right after the halving. You guys viewing, I guess, at Bitwise, the chances of an Ethereum spot ETF. It seems pretty mixed, actually, when I ask people. Yeah, I'm warming to it is how I'd view it. If you had asked me that two months ago, I would have said it's a very low probability. I was certain we were not certain, but thought it was very likely we'd get the Bitcoin ETF. But ETH felt more complicated. And the reason is there's not the same level of regulatory clarity, right? The SEC is still waffling over whether it's a security or

not. You have the question of staking, et cetera. But we spent a lot of time reading the actual approval of the spot Bitcoin ETFs, like reading the actual words the SEC wrote. And you can pretty easily substitute Ethereum into those words. And it sounds pretty darn good. The logic that they followed to get there applies pretty well to Ethereum. So I think it's a better than 50-50 shot. We get approval. I don't think it's 90% or 95%. I think it probably is 90% or 95% if you're talking about the next 12 months. Yeah. But if you're talking about May, I think it's better than 50-50. It's not a gimme. And it would be exciting. It won't be as exciting as the Bitcoin ETF.

I was just saying it'd be exciting, but I have a feeling that just like the Ethereum futures ETF, which did literally nothing, I just don't see that much sideline cash dying to get into Ethereum right now. I think it would be great to have these products, but I don't see it being a huge driver of momentum in the market. I think people are way overestimating that. I could be wrong. I don't think you're wrong at all. You have to think about the people who haven't bought crypto before, still think of it as crypto. They don't think you're wrong at all you have to think about the people who haven't bought crypto before still think of it as crypto they don't know the difference between bitcoin and ethereum they can't talk about turning complete blockchains they they can't disambiguate that it's just crypto and if they check the box with bitcoin exposure for a year they may not be looking to add on ethereum exposure and that's from somebody who runs a crypto index fund for a living. I wish it weren't true, but I do think it is true. So I think it's a small fraction of the demand, but still it'd be

good for the market. It would solidify its regulatory position. It would show continued progress. I hope we get it. But I don't think it'll be the boom. You're not going to see $7 billion or $8 billion in the first month. I feel confident saying that. It does mean that maybe ETH is a really good trade. I haven't checked the discount, but if you believe it's going to get approved, it's sort of the equivalent of doing the GBTC thing. Although I think ETH was at like a 60% discount. Now it's probably 11 or 12. So that's probably already gone. I just want to really quickly, I'm looking at a dashboard from the just at the market cap of the ETFs right now, $3.3 billion in BlackRock.

It's massive. Massive. Absolutely massive ETF. Still 20 in GBTC. That's slowed to a trickle, like I said. Finality, $2.75. Massive. ARK at $7.16 million.

Massive for a month. You guys at $672 and way on the top of the list for the crypto natives, 672 million. I mean, right, you get down here, VanEck is at 100. Even Valkyrie over 100. I mean, these are huge, huge numbers in a vacuum. And if you add them all up, it's just astounding. I mean, here it says, right, BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF inflows climbed to fifth highest among all ETFs in 2024. And that's competing with all these other ones. I mean, these are astounding, astounding numbers. Yeah. Just to make that comment concrete, that means people have put as much money into Black

Rocks ETF as the largest S&P 500 ETFs. I mean, These are massive numbers. The year one record for net flows is something like $5 billion. And these ETFs have gotten, or BlackRock's gotten to three plus in a month. It's absolutely incredible. Even if you look out three years, GLD was the third or fourth largest ETF over three years. It got $10 billion in three years, GLD was the third or fourth largest ETF over three years. It got $10 billion in three years. And we talk about it transforming the gold market. These ETFs have gotten $8 billion in a month.

BlackRock's already at three. It's a record-setting launch. It far exceeds my expectations. And it actually continues to do that on a daily basis, overwhelming the GBTC outflows. And then adding to that real net buying. I think it's just massive. I think people want to know that why, and you don't have the answer by the way, but why is price still the same? Before the ETF, after the ETF, it's kind of just chopped around back to this price. Are these just not big enough numbers? I mean, it's huge that the ETFs are doing that well, but 100 million here, 200 million there, and inflows to Bitcoin really

isn't that significant. It's not that significant. On a daily basis. Yeah. And we pulled forward a lot of demand, right? One way to think about the GBTC premium trade was that all it did was pull forward demand, right? It pulled forward, it created shares that couldn't be destroyed for which there wasn't retail demand. That's why it traded at a discount. If there had been enough demand for $26 billion of GBTC, it would have traded at par. But there wasn't. Maybe there was enough demand for $15 billion or something. So we started in this $9 billion hole. it's pretty remarkable that we've treaded water. And I think if you play this out over a year or through the end of the year, eventually these become really significant, right? There's headlines today about MicroSailor buying, you know, eight or 900 Bitcoin in January,

which used to be the headline that would get us all very excited, but weighed against, there it is, but weighed against these inflows into ETFs. You can see that this is relatively small now, right? It's still nice. It's still important. It's still valuable, but it's not at the scale of these ETFs. So, you know, when moon, I think it's going to take a little bit of time, but we're making real progress, right? Like it plays out over quarters and years, and I'm hugely optimistic for the rest of the year. All I see is tailwinds, right? So like, regardless of the price today, we know that the selling is slowing. We know that the demand is increasing. We know that the halving is coming. We know that how these cycles work. I don't see headwinds. I don't know

what that will mean for price in the end. And we know that this market can be controlled by a few huge players who just want to tamper, tinker with our emotions at any given moment by crashing or pumping liquidations. But fundamentally, I just don't see any huge problems on the horizon. Maybe that's a blind spot for me. I don't know. And why is he only buying 850? What is it like? He took a vacation, 37 million. Come on, man. He owns 190,000. There's nothing. Step it up, man. That's right. You got to play in the big leagues now.

I agree. A reporter asked me the other day, what are the headwinds? I was a little bit stumped to come up with it. It's sort of digging out of this hole is one of the headwinds. And then finding a new narrative post Bitcoin post halving or post ETF post halving. I think a lot of people are worried about what are we going to talk about about Bitcoin in October? And, you know, there are a few ideas. What's that? We're going to be talking about how the price is so high up six months after the halving, just like we always do. October, man. That's a very good point. I think that's right. Yeah. Well, we'll have high price and then we'll be assigning the narrative instead of trying to assign a narrative now to get us to the high price. But cyclically, and that does not mean

it will repeat, guys. We love talking about the four-year cycle, but from a statistical perspective, two or three sample set is not relevant, right? It could just be a random walk in the park and the asset was vastly different at each halving cycle in size and importance. But six, seven months after the halving, you start to see that supply decrease, start to matter. And every fall after the halving price just goes up. And then all of a sudden, you say, it's the halving. Obviously, we could have fallen on our heads, amnesia, four-year cycle, ETF didn't matter. All that mattered was that we were in the four-year cycle and the price is going to go up. It's crazy. It's amazing, but it's a little bit true. But no, it's like anything, right? It's like exercising or working out. It's not like you

start lifting and you're strong the next day. It takes time. That's true on the halving. That's true on the ETF. But they do add up over time. Again, supply and demand. And we have new demand and we'll have less new supply. Sometimes it's complex. Sometimes it's simple, right? Sometimes it's literally the first thing they teach you in middle school economics. Well, they only taught middle school economics in the United States. I don't know where you guys are from, but we don't do financial education here at all. But if we did, supply demand would be pretty early in it. conversation that you were really having these talks now, right? You said it before, we couldn't do it until the spot ETF was launched. Hunter, when he was on here on the day of the launch said, you had already had 20,000 calls, which blew my mind. But now you mentioned that a number of these RIA platforms are starting to actually launch. I still don't think people here understand how unavailable these are. Yeah. Yeah, that's right.

So the ETF launches and you as an individual can buy it in your Fidelity account or buy it in your Schwab account or buy it in your anything but Vanguard account. But a financial advisor who's operating at Morgan Stanley or at UBS or at Wells Fargo or at these big national platforms that you see advertising on TV, they can't buy it until a committee there reviews it, approves it, and allows it to launch. Actually, there are two phases, Scott. First, they can buy it in what's called unsolicited, which means if a client calls and says, I want this ETF, then you can buy it. But the advisor who's directing the client how to manage their finances can't call the client and say, I think you should allocate 1% to GBTC, right? That can't happen.

We thought that this process would take, I don't know, six months to a year. But it's really happening much, much faster than that. We're seeing unsolicited approvals on a large number of platforms. We're seeing solicited approvals, which is where the advisor can call the client on smaller, more regional platforms, which often move faster. That's why somebody would sign up with a smaller platform instead of Morgan Stanley, because they're faster. But this it's it's happening at a speed that I haven't seen in the ETF industry. And, you know, before Bitwise, I spent 15 years in that industry. So this is the fastest rollout. It's the largest launch.

It's all moving at the speed of light for traditional finance. That may sound really slow. It's a month. right? No, yeah. I mean, you said you would have expected this to be six months or a year. Do you think we get to the point where it's all of them? Or do you think there's just like a Vanguard and a few of them are just diametrically opposed to us for whatever reason and they just don't? Or let me say, do you think we get 80, 90% of them on board? We definitely get, definitely. I should never say that.

My compliance genie says that. I think we get 80 or 90% on board. There always be a few philosophical outliers. Vanguard is a philosophical outlier, right? But I think we get 80 or 90%. These are commercial people. What do we know? We know Americans want to buy Bitcoin.

We know that they like ETFs. we know these platforms make money by helping Americans invest in what they want to invest in. Ultimately, it's like supply and demand. Ultimately, those incentives will align to make these available. The products work, right? They're the lowest cost way to access Bitcoin for many Americans. They're going to get on board. Not all of them. Morgan Stanley won't approve 11 ETFs. It's too confusing. They'll approve a handful, but eventually they'll all get there because it's what investors want and the wrapper works. And would you rather have people buying $100,000 on their phone? And the answer to that is, of course, not. Right. So, yeah, they'll get there. So, you guys did your 20,000 calls. You're in the boiler room right now, you know, on the phones, calling everyone on the planet. But interestingly, it seems all it takes is one Larry Fink interview to spark that interest, right? As you said earlier, admittedly, nobody thought DTF was getting approved, I would say, right? As you said earlier, admittedly, nobody thought

DTF was getting approved, I would say, until Larry Fink showed up, right? Until BlackRock showed up. Great. What happens when Larry Fink makes the inevitable comment in some interview that BlackRock thinks you should have 1%, everyone should have 1% of their money in Bitcoin? He said a lot of things, flight to quality, but there's been no direct statement like that. Is something like that the unlock to just like this massive flood of platforms giving that approval solicited, like as you said? Why stop at 1%, Scott? The math says you have 4% to 5%. Look, I think that's going to happen. It's going to unlock. I'll tell you something I found out yesterday, which is that Fidelity, which has sort of all-in-one funds, I own them in certain old retirement accounts. Were they rebalancing towards retirement age?

Yeah, it's like docs and bonds and whatever. It's 10 different funds in one. They have allocations to their Bitcoin ETF now. Their conservative all-in-one fund, which holds like 70% bonds and a little bit stocks, has a 1% allocation to Bitcoin. So Fidelity is saying your base case for what your portfolio should look like, even if you're a conservative investor, should have a 1% allocation to Bitcoin. And if you're more aggressive, it should be two and a half or more. That's coming everywhere. If Fidelity is doing it, it's going to come everywhere. And no one's even talking about that. You can look the funds up online. They're right in there. What I find amazing about that is that people will obviously

say, well, that's because it's Fidelity. They're Bitcoiners. They've been in from the beginning. But the reason is that conservative investors should have Bitcoin in their portfolio because of math, the Sharpe ratio, right? You simply do the math, no bias, you can literally hate the asset. You probably, by the way, hate a meaningful percentage of the assets that you're exposed to in these funds and don't even know it. And they're there because they might improve your Sharpe ratio. But there's this emotional hatred of some people to Bitcoin, even if it is good for them. That's exactly right. If you strip the name off Bitcoin and you present it to an academic, they'll say, of course, you should have it. You shouldn't have 50%. It's too volatile. It should

be 1% to 5%. And away you go. And that's why they're putting it in there. And it is a big statement because they could face questions. They could face people moving money. They could face potential legal risk. But they're saying it's that important. And absolutely, I have treasuries in that same fund. I don't love those. But they're there because the math makes sense and because that's the option in that IRA plan. But I love that there's Bitcoin in there and that's going to that's going to happen in every fund. And then people who are contributing to their 401ks, 1% of that contribution is going to go into Bitcoin. And that will just add up over time, over time, over time. I just find it hilarious.

There's people who just so fundamentally despise Elon Musk or Mark Zuckerberg or like Facebook meta as a company and you all own it. Sorry, you all own it. A lot of it. You own a lot of it, right? It's probably your top weighting. People just don't realize realize so all we need is i think we need one larry fink comment we unlock it all and then we we see the flood but assuming uh we don't get that in the near term is it guy is it literally for you guys just education education education phone calls phone calls phone calls conferences just out of the i mean you guys bitwise you guys have been on the road show man like you and juan and r, you guys don't stop. Hunter himself, it's pretty impressive. You must be doing four or five interviews a day. Yes, that is true. We're telling our story and

we're telling the story of Bitcoin. We're doing it at conferences. We're doing it on YouTube. We're doing it at Capitol Grill over salmon lunches with 10 advisors at a time. That's where the future of crypto is being built. But all those things add up. And if we're having 20,000 conversations a day and Valkyrie is having its conversations and VanEck is having its conversations, and then you layer on BlackRock and Invesco and Fidelity, everyone who manages a lot of money in the US is thinking about Bitcoin at some point between today and July 1st. they're going to have a conversation and that just adds up over time so yeah we're we're we're we're on the road we're pounding it um and uh and that's because we want

to compete in this space and also because we think it's important for the asset just before i let you go how much of these inflows especially in a BlackRock or something like that, do you think are just the general public buying this thing versus BlackRock themselves on the phones and selling? Oh, I think in this initial phase, it's probably close to, it could be 50-50 or something like that. Over time, it will be them selling. That becomes the big driver. Maybe it's even less than that today because sales conversations take a while. It's not like you call someone and you're on the phone and they're like, I'm slamming in a million dollars. I've seen that in the movies. I've seen that in the movie Boiler Room. I said that before. You get some Midwestern housewife to give you all

her money for a penny stock you created. That's right. Let me show you this pen, Scott. That's what people think we're doing here, by the way, who hate Bitcoin. No, but it's like everything, right? There's six conversations. There's a visit to their office. There's follow-up questions. There's a little allocation in their personal account. And then in a few clients and then across their book, it's a whole process that takes a year to play out. So I think the sold assets will come. They're probably just starting now and it will accelerate over the next nine months.

Yeah. All right. Well, Matt, man, thank you as always for your time. I'm going to let you go to your 15th interview of the day. I'm sure that you've already done. I don't know. Maybe you work sometimes, but always a pleasure to have you guys.

Obviously check out Matt on X. It's in the description and buy some. own some bitwise by the way i own the bitwise uh etf i do own a little blackrock too i would be honest that's fair those are the two and a little valkyrie so three actually i love it i love it everyone should do that i appreciate it yeah so thank you matt uh i talked to you on spaces for all i know in like 30 minutes or something all right man see you soon see you man i'm curious if any of you guys do you guys i own it i own uh i own a few of them do you guys own them any of you in the comments have you actually bought these etfs i know a lot of you are not even in the united states and you can't but you

probably had the opportunity to buy before. But any of you guys in the comments, I'm looking. I don't do this, obviously. Okay, Queen has iBit. Scotty Swing owned a few. Yes, sir. Yeah, so you guys are doing it. See, this is where the real research happens.

We don't need to look at flows and all this. Can't be UK. like look at flows and all this, Camp UK, Third Bitwise, Third Fidelity, Third Arc, FBTC, iBit, DCA. Yeah, you guys really, yeah. Okay, see, this gives me a lot of confidence because we're all crypto natives. We're all Bitcoiners. We're all believers here.

And I thought that this audience might say, no, only self-custody, only holding spot Bitcoin. But a lot of you guys are. GBTC, iBit, ARKB, converted GBTC. Yes. Geez. Amazing. Oh, I love this. Bought iBit in my Charles Schwab account, Crypto Chad. Aptly named, buddy. Good job. Good job. All right. I'm going to go ahead now. We're going to try to figure out why the hell Link jumped 40%. The funny thing is people are like, dude, Link is down. It's in the month.

It's in the month. It's been a good month for Link. Chris, I'm going to bring you on. We were trying to figure out why Link jumped. Everybody needed a narrative. I just said chart. I don't know, man. I got the chart right here. We had a strong resistance and took a couple months to start to push through it. Now I'm a little worried about this weekly candle, if I'm being honest.

But otherwise, yeah, I think it was just a lot of consolidation. Yeah, I mean, that's exactly what it was. We were sideways here from, geez, oh, it was from November, beginning of November, man. So November, December, January, right? So three months over and finally took its little pop here I mean um at the end of the day you know you've got uh three waves down from the swing high to the swing low here so once we broke that second wave you should be looking higher and that's what we got I mean you know we weren't surprised it's just what we were looking for um just took

forever to get there i i noticed it seems like uh crypto for some reason seems to be doing a lot more sideways it seems like this cycle um maybe i don't know maybe it's just it's just in there because i'm here right now but it seems like we're doing a lot more sideways for like longer periods of time um and when we get that and guys listen if we're in a bull market and we're going sideways for a while, the odds are we're going to break up and we're going to break apart. You know, we did it over here with the original, this was such a beautiful move here. I was just going to say we're in years of consolidation on Lake.

Yeah. Yeah. And so this, this right here is nothing. We should continue higher. There's no, you know, when you're, this is the problem. Everybody out here wants to talk about different ways to trade and whatever, but nobody really understands what's going on. Very few do. But man, when you understand what's going on with these ranges, when they're actually accumulation, not just I'm saying it's accumulation because it's at this level, but when you're looking at price action and volume and you're really understanding it, and you see something like this, I mean, it's the reason I was telling everybody we're going to get a spring or a thermal shake out here to buy it at four and a half, five dollars. And I mean, this thing has just continued up. And after you've gone long, this when you when you get when you're that long, it's going to keep going up. It just

everybody wants to be scared and to find a reason to be fearful of it. But at the end of the day, that's a long accumulation. That's got power. It's going to continue going for a while. I bet a lot of people who did buy those lows sold the retest to the top of that range at about nine bucks. It took like almost 2X and we're like, dude, this thing's going to get rejected again. And it popped through on one weekly candle. What I love about that, by the way, I just have it on the weekly. You're looking at the daily. And this was something I was talking about so much at the time.

I mean, for me, this was the highs. I mean, look at, you had the breakout from the weekly range after all that consolidation. And the retest on the next candle was to the fraction of a penny. Yep. Right here. I mean, right on it. It's crazy to me when those play out so perfectly. Yeah. I mean, it was just, it's absolutely beautiful. I mean, really, it's just this, this is the kind of thing you want to see when you're looking for like macro

accumulation. That's what you want to see that you've got something that just continues to go on for a while there, because once you do that, it's soaked up so much of that loose supply right you know everybody out here that you know it's kind of you've been in here you know a while like i have in crypto and you know everybody always makes fun of paper hands but paper hands are not just the people that get scared and don't know what they're doing it's also short-term traders right and so when you've got an accumulation that's this long you're pulling all that all that short-term selling pressure off. And it's not going back in because you've got the bigger players down here who are pulling it off. And they're not going to be down in this area.

And they're not going to be selling for a while. And so when you do that, you take all that pressure off. And, of course, price is going to go up. So the longer it's going sideways, the more selling pressure you're taking away. And this thing's going to ride for a while. So yeah, it is absolutely beautiful. Really quick before we continue, I just see a question I want to answer from Mark. Should we be concerned with 1.5 billion Genesis dump? I'm not saying no, I'm saying no. It wouldn't happen all at once, but that's two days of what we saw from GBTC every day for weeks. And we're still sitting here at 43,000.

So 1.5 billion is a non-event, a non-number in my mind after seeing the market completely absorb 7, 800, 900 million every single day from GBTC when those ETFs launch. But we can go on with the charts now. I just want to put that out there that no, that does not concern me at all. Yeah, I don't get concerned on news events. So I just kind of play the charts., you know, usually I'm right. Sometimes I'm wrong. It is what it is. I'm a human being, right? But I've gotten pretty good at it. All right. So let's look at Bitcoin. Boring, boring coin as people are starting to call it,

I think. Yeah. Well, again, you know, same idea here. It wasn't years, but I mean, you know, seven months of sideways, we popped popped out we never got the retest as i was saying we wouldn't uh that we weren't likely to get we've continued to rally up um we've got this nice uh three wave kind of move down here and we've rallied up just beyond that so we should be heading up we're range bound right here just below the daily pivot um you know i i mean there's nothing specifically jumping out the moment but this uh this range here the eq is providing really support here we have one wick down but really support is uh if i can zoom this in a bit here support's being found right there resistance right there at that daily pivot we cleared the way we're rallying up we're trying to push again so i think you know we get that impulsive pop here locally i mean i think 45,000 25 is a great like really local target but i think if we're popping

on impulsively above here we ultimately should be rallying up to the r1 and then probably back to the daily pivot and then higher and you know still with my my chart here i've still got you know around a 57,000 initial um wave circle three target here. So yeah. Can I float an idea and ask you people don't, a lot of you, I've, I take for granted that people here are new and don't know about our relationship, but I asked Chris for advice and he taught me. So Craig, I basically bothered Chris enough to where he like sort of side mentored me while I was a part of his group. So sometimes I literally come here and say, what do you think of this idea? Right. We kind of had that drop to 38, six. Now we have this sort of flag in my opinion, if you move that, I can move that aside so you can

see. And the nice pennant for me now, I wouldn't be surprised if this flagged and went lower, right? We know these pens are tied, but you kind of have this nice pennant that would send us right back up to 49. Yeah. Yeah. That looks valid right at the 50 ma i mean it's got the touch up down up down up yeah exactly i mean it you know it looks like it's it's consolidated there i mean in terms of elliott wave you know uh you could be looking at a short one two and then another one two but um you know for all intents and purposes, we're getting consolidation right there. And you'll notice if you look right there at the middle of your triangle there,

you'll notice the wicks all come out around the same area at the top there, and then all around the same area at the bottom. And really you're sideways just in that middle area right there, other than those, you know, the short ones. Yeah, basically from like this area, like 43.2 to here. If you ignore the wicks, I mean, yeah, I see what you're saying. You're basically saying you've got like, look how clean that support is with these four candles and that wick.

Yeah. And that wick. Actually, one, two, three, four, five, six out of seven candles either wicked perfectly to that line or found support in it. So 42.5, 48. See, guys, this is why Chris gets paid the big bucks. It's clean. Very clean. Yeah. But yeah, this is why Chris gets paid the big bucks. It's clean, very clean. Yeah. But yeah, it's, it's beautiful structure, I think. And then you've got that, that large,

your blue candle coming down there. So you've got that big fair value gap up to the, all the way. Yeah. Just pay attention. The big blue one. Oh, sorry. Over. Keep going. Keep going. That one. Yeah. And so then that wick down there of that big candle, that'll fill in that fair value gap there. So, I mean, that's. Yeah, that just looks good. Yeah. I know it's sideways and boring. It also kind of looks inverse head and shoulders. Although, you know, I don't really like to move down into it, but it just doesn't look bad. Nothing there scares me. It looks really good. You know, but people, you know, human beings, psychology, you know, people tend to when they get bored or when they you know, when price isn't

doing what they want quick enough, they tend to get scared and they start thinking about all these other reasons why it can't possibly go up. And then, of course, you have social media, which, you know, the the algorithms provide echo chambers and they, you know, kind of show you what they think you want to see. And so if you're already kind of feeling like really negative about it, then they'll start showing you the negative stuff. And then as human beings, emotion plays in and it's, it's, it's tough. It's tough until you really understand, you get some experience. You know, everybody thinks they can come in and learn the steps and how to trade and you can, but to be able to trade is a whole different thing that takes experience it takes practice you have to go out there you have to do your reps over and

over again uh to prove to yourself that things actually work the way that you expect them to do so yeah but i like it man i like it so i can see a rational singing over here i've been waiting for a coin like you to come into my life. I got you. I know the music references when you guys drop them. I just want you to know that. What are we looking at here? All right. This is AZN AstraZeneca. This is a beautiful reversal off here. You have this doji right here at support. So there's pin bar at support. And then you've got this gap up and this nice large candle here yesterday. What I'm basically looking for is a breakout above, what is this, probably right here around 67,

67.85, 67.80, right around this area. If we can get a nice pop up through that, locally we should hit 73.50, no problem. But I think, especially if we're hitting that, then we should be up here around 86. So it's just a really good looking setup at the moment, I think. And so that's kind of what I'm looking for with it there. If instead, if it drops back down here below the swing low, then ignore it. But if we can get that breakout here, I'll look at 73.50. If we can grab that, then I'm looking up there around 86.

What do you think of the market right now? Just in general? I mean, anything scaring you with stocks? You know, I think it's getting choppy again, and people are starting to freak out and Fed pivots and China. Yeah, no, I think. Yeah. No, you know me, man, I just look at the charts. I don't I don't sit there and really worry about news events and all this stuff because at the end, and I posted something about this on Twitter, whatever we call it these days, the other day, and I think it was yesterday maybe. And a lot of things that new traders especially really hurt themselves with is that they'll go and they'll learn a system to trade, right?

A system is just a set of rules. And they'll learn the system, the strategy to trade. And then what they'll go is they'll go and they'll screw it up because then they'll start paying attention to chatter and news events and all these things. And all of a sudden they don't enter when they should. They don't exit when they should. They exit earlier or whatever because they think something may happen

rather than just playing with the strategy. And the strategies and the techniques tend to work over time because they're based on the price action, the techniques tend to work, you know, over time because they're based on the price action, not on all this other new stuff. It isn't like, Oh, if, if Bob comes up in your social media profile and says, Hey, Jerome said this, so this is what's going to happen, you know, because here's the thing, even if you guess the correct, what, what, you know, whatever the news event is going to be, let's say payroll is going to be surprise the upside, surprise the downside, or whatever, right? Or the Fed's going to raise interest rates or not,

or just keep flat. Even if you guess that correctly, that does nothing for what's going on in the chart, right? Just because you do that, how many times do we see somebody, Apple, right? Apple double beat on earnings and dropped the same day that Microsoft, you know, all after hours, Microsoft double beat popped up or not Microsoft made up. And so, you know, again, we don't necessarily know that even if we get that news event correct, that it's going to do what we think it's going to do. So stop listening to the news and whatever. So I just look at the charts and I don't see anything overly terrible at the moment you know everybody's gonna make these things oh you know in the past this has happened so this has to happen nothing has to happen right um i posted

something recently i shared a post recently from alex kruger uh friend of mine i think he's pretty yours too um good guy really good guy but uh i think uh, he was in Vegas with us. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. But he's been posting some great stuff. Uh, you know, I I've been talking about how, you know, everybody's like, Oh, well, every time this happens, recession comes in, blah, blah, blah. And I've been saying, no, you know, that's just kind of this limited us history and during this thing, but he actually put up the numbers. Uh, he showed what actually happens in, you know, are you actually in a recession yet versus are you coming into a recession and what it means? And, you know, I don't I don't necessarily think people are going to get what they're really, really expecting.

What's all over social media and scaring everybody right now. And what does that mean? That means everybody that's been fighting the rally for two years now will continue to fight the rally even harder, which I think is going to give even more fuel. Just short more, guys. Hey, is that a Metis chart over there? Because that's quietly been my favorite trade, bottom left. I know that chart anywhere because it looked head and shoulders-y, but bounced so beautifully from support. I literally have this.

I mean, I see. You can tell I learned from Chris. That's why I show you. There you go. Look at that. Yep. That's the important stuff. Same thing.

Okay. Mine has the 50 MA. Yours has pivots but yeah i've been in this for i'm i actually i'm to be fully transparent i sold a lot of this when it was up in the 120s 130s i've been in it since some since last cycle but i was adding it 10 and 20 bucks so nice nice yeah yeah i mean the first thing to notice you know keep it simple we've got this nice support and we hit it right here. Polish engulfing candle coming in. The volume isn't quite where we want it to be, but still kind of coming up there. But then you get your descending resistance with this big spike of volume,

large candle spread right up through it into this next resistance. So, I mean, I think that probably says we head up, but, you know, I'm looking for an impulsive breakout above the pivot. And if we can get that and kind of close above that, you know, I'm looking up here at 186. Yeah. As long as it's not below 71, I'm good. That's that, that's that, uh, that, that line, right at the bottom. I mean, I was watching it pretty close. I was like, yeah, we're not going to lose 71. Are we? And it bounced exactly at it. So, and here's the thing thing if we do lose this area here i mean i think we'd probably come all the way down here to you know 35 40 dollars

um down here i think you just fall right through the big candles so that's why i'm watching it so closely because i'm like i'm out of here dude yeah yeah exactly and then you go damn it i could have sold it all at 130 what was i thinking thinking? Hindsight. 65. That hindsight gets you every time. Yeah, I know. 2020, right? Yeah. Let me see. I've got Rune here. I know this one gets a lot of talk on and off throughout the cycles and whatnot. I like this here. We've got a nice rally up to the pivot. We've got to pull back to this previous kind of support resistance area right here, and we got to pop up and so i'm just looking for again a bullish breakout here uh impulsive breakout above four dollars and ninety four and

a half cents if we can get that i think the odds are pretty strong we rally up here toward eleven dollars so um that's just what i'm looking for if we don't get it it breaks down lower well ignore that but if we can get that breakout that's where i'm looking forward to kind of continue its rally toward can you have a question can you back test pivots you know obviously the pivots exist based on the current price action is there a way to go back on a chart and look at pivots like can you rewind basically and see what yeah i mean you in the past yeah sure i mean i i find it really annoying to have more than just the initial pivots on there. Right. But you can add them all. Yeah. Oh, yeah. Yeah. You can go here and you say, man, I want to do, you know, 30, 30 pivots back here and click it on there. Oh, that's right. You get them all. Yeah. Yeah.

Yeah. Like I forgot. It's been so long. It's just fun. Yeah. All right. Keep going. Sorry. I've got mover here mover is interesting um so we have this big deviation big drop down here which rallied back up and ever since then uh we've got if we'll look here this is the swing low right here other than that drop i've got it just below it but yeah but you know we came down we hit it with with uh this one right here rallied up we came down, we hit it with, with, uh, this one right here, rallied up, we're pulling back. We're trying to rally up here. So, um, for me, um, you know, I'm kind of looking at this lower highs, higher lows up

into this consolidation, uh, kind of what you were looking at on that other chart. Yeah. So we got kind of something like this going on. Um, and so I'm interested because if we can get a breakout, I want to say above this one right here, this is what, $25, $7.41? $25.74? I'm going to assume that is. I think there's a really good chance. If we do that, I think it's on its way.

And then we really want to see a breakout above this one here at $31. But I think we do that and we're up here at 85. If it does happen to break down though, below this swing low here, I'm not sure this holds here. And I think there's a good chance we could probably see it drop on down. I mean, I'd look here around the S1 pivot, $14, $15, but I think it breaks down to here. But if we can get that break upward, I think we got a good target there so ends up getting us a good bit of return on that as well looking good anything else in there in the uh bag of tricks there no no i think that's all i got here for today yeah i think it's enough it's enough especially the sideways boring market yeah you just got to be ready stop stop sleeping folks

that's you're gonna sleep and things are gonna pop out because they've been going sideways for a while and then you'll be like what let's got to pull back it's got to pull back and then it doesn't pull back and then everybody's upset we pulled back 38,600 come on yeah that was we pulled back we pulled back we're done here i don't know never know but all right guys right, guys, you follow TX West Capital on Twitter. I call it Twitter too. Not going to stop. No change. Happy to stop.

It is what it is. And follow Chris for sure. Check out everything he's got going. We got Fibbo Swatty over here taking places. He kills. But in the comments, the two of them, they work together, you know, over at Texas West Capital. So you can get two for the price of one, so to speak.

And I think you should. All right, Chris, thank you very much, man. I appreciate it, man. Have a good one. All right, guys, that's all I got for you today. We'll be back tomorrow with somebody that's going to be awesome that I can't remember or don't know or hasn't been booked yet. But who cares, guys?

It's going to be great. That's all I got for you today. I will see you all tomorrow, 9 a.m. Eastern Standard Time. I've been waiting for a coin like you. Bye.