Massive Bitcoin Volatility Ahead! Will $31B In Options Spark The Next Rally?
00:00A record, $31 billion in Bitcoin options are set to expire on Halloween this Friday, meaningthere could be a hell of a lot of volatility coming.Well, it'll be the upside, the downside, or a complete snooze fest as most of these situations tendto be.I'm going to unpack that and everything else happening in the market.And, of course, update you on how amazingly well my arch public portfolio is going.We got Andrew and Tillman.do it.
00:46Good morning, everybody from Not So Sunny, Las Vegas at 6 a.m.I'm here for Monday, 2020, leaving today.And as you can tell, we have incredible lighting in this room.Tellman told me I looked like I have jaundice.to which I told him the entire room looks like it has jaundice, so it's not just to be, at least.But yesterday I met a bunch of people at the conference who were like,we watched Macro Monday.Those curtains were horrendous.
01:11So I went to the other side where you can't see the horrendous curtains behind me.They were all yellow.Yeah, I mean, I do not look good.This is nuts.It almost looks like I'm in black and white.I don't know what's happening.I'm not a producer.I can't adjust the camera.
01:26Well, he knows for being up at 6 a.m.Vegas after money 2020. That's what's a.m. you say. Funny story. I got up at 3.30 a.m.this morning because I popped up. I saw a text and I was like, okay, I'm awake now. So I wrote twonewsletters. And then I did what any self-respecting, lonely guy in Vegas would do at 4.30in the morning. I went down and got a cup of coffee and played craps by myself. And I had one of the best roles ofmy entire life was there for about nine minutes, hit about six points, a couple numbers,and went back and wrote some more newsletters. It was amazing. So I'm having a better morningprobably than everybody else who's listening. But let's talk about what's going on here,
02:15obviously with Bitcoin. We're trading at, I don't know, 14,000. Can't even see it,$616. It's a pretty good price right here at the 50MA. Like a lot of depression for 115$13,000-dollar Bitcoin?The Bitcoin pump over the weekend is often met with, you know, some downside on Mondaybecause the futures aren't open.And, you know, that's where the big boys play is they play when futures are tradingtogether with, you know, spot Bitcoin.So the fact that it held up significantly and maybe even a little bit went to the upside
02:54is, again, it's emblematic of we're in, you know, Q3.Q4 when inflows will just continue unabated in an automatic way.So you may get a pump that in earlier years was one that would be hammered pretty hardat the quote unquote open of markets.But we live in a different time now where, you know, a Bitcoin ETF is a well-known commodityand is used by, you know, millions and millions of investors at this point.So different, you know, just a shift.it's another it's another marker in the shift of a bitcoin price action we had the largest drop in
03:36crypto history last week or week before last it triggered so much liquidation i think 18 billionplus dollars yeah it was 19 billion on that day and it's over 25 in the entire event if you countkind of the action after it's crazy the fact that we moved basically nothing i mean wenot even 2%. In the grand scheme of things, I think is like Andrew's saying,incredibly bullish, incredibly strong. If you look at the chart that you just pulled up,the thing that I always look at, everybody wants to look at the price action,but just look at that red line under the price action. That's the average.The moving average moving up at a 45 degree angle is a good sign.
04:25And as it approaches the blue line, if we've got a crossover,we're going to be looking, you know, really, really strong going into Q4, which I think, you know, that, that engineered drop or the liquidity event that we had from 126 all the way down to 102, that that allowed a lot of positions to be taken that now are on the books, that now people want to see the price appreciate because they actually own the Bitcoin.And that was a lot of Bitcoin.going. So I would anticipate a new pricing level to be discovered here pretty soon. That's myanticipation. The audience is saying I look like I'm in an RV. You live in a van down by theriver. That's right. That's me. I live in a van down by the river. Some context toyou know historical charts right so there's a reminder that during the great financial crisis thethe s&P bottom that like 667 and where is the s&P today it hit another new high yesterday at
05:36you know 6700 in change um that's a you know that the the amount of capital that hadflowed over that those period of years if you if you map that over orwhat Bitcoin should do over the next three, five, eight, ten, fifteen years.Nothing should shake you out of your position, like absolutely nothing.It doesn't matter what the headlines are.It doesn't matter what the price action is.We've said it a bunch of times on this podcast.Every dip in the history of Bitcoin has been for buying, literally.
06:15And so when you see downside, it's an opportunity.when you go to, you know, how badly would everybody want to get in at 107 right now when we're at114 and change? Everybody would love to do that. You know, I post about every two or three dayshow long Bitcoin has been above 100K. I think today would be the 173rd day over 100K. That's nearlythat's nearly half a year, right? That's nearly six months.Just a massive shift in what Bitcoin is and where it sits in the greater financial lexicon of how people see it and talk about it.There's more to go, though, right?There's a lot more space for Bitcoin to take up as per your conversation with Michael Saylor yesterday at Money 2020.
07:11So Money 2020 is a huge, huge event in Las Vegas.But Sailor wasn't, you know, standing on a pedestal evangelizing Bitcoin for Bitcoin's sake.He was talking about debt and yield products associated with his Bitcoin stack and micro strategy.So, you know, point being is there's there's more to go.There's more adoption to still happen.There's more understanding to still happen.A conference like Money 2020, you would think they would have figured it out.But if Saylor is sort of soft peddling it a little bit, then you know there's more to go in terms of people that end up allocating to Bitcoin as an asset.
07:57Yeah, it was a really interesting conversation with Saylor because, as you said, he didn't focus on Bitcoin.He did not focus at all on micro strategy stock.We just basically, after giving the very quick intro as to why Bitcoin talked about STRC, STRK, STRD, and how he did.has created this like tiered volatility debt, you know, credit instruments that you can justgo get 10% highly liquid and not have to deal with United States Treasuries.And it was really, really compelling.People loved it.I think he orange-pilled and a digital credit pilled a hell of a lot of people in that room.
08:36It's pretty compelling.And it sounds to me like what we've been talking about since day one with him is coming true.He's setting himself up as a Bitcoin bank.And, you know, there's so many ways, Bitcoin has been so powerful as a wealth creator.And he's proven through multiple other speeches and presentations that Sailor's done that even the Magnificent Seven can't keep up with the performance record of Bitcoin.So one would assume that there's a lot, there's a huge audience of people out there that don't care to understand.Bitcoin, but they understand yield and they understand debt and they understand putting largeamounts of money into flywheels that play arbitrage essentially.
09:24And I think he's appealing to those people without having to orange build them.And no different than I think some of these big exchanges that we're going to see pop upthat will be built on crypto and have crypto.I don't think a lot of people that use them, you know, even years from now, if they don't use the crypto functionality of it and don't really, you know, investigate and learn for themselves what crypto is all about, they could be using the set of rails without ever knowing it.And they could be buying tokenized S&P 500, tokenized NASDAQ.And, you know, there's a large portion of, I think, the world's population that will continue to be slow to adopt it.but it's integrating into the fabric of the financial system.And I think Saylor is now able to speak on Tradfai principles and Tradfai without going into the whole crypto thing.
10:22So just think about how flexible that type of a message can be and the fact that he can go be the keynote speaker at the Bitcoin conference and get all of us excited about what Bitcoin can do.But at the same time, go speak to a bunch of Tradify guys and get excited about debt.Yeah, I went up to him in the press room or something, you know, a couple hours before the talk.He was staying there talking to McKenzie from CNBC, like the anchor.And I just kind of went up.I said, hey, man, what's going on?You know, looking forward to it today.And she's like, are you going to, are you going to roast him?
10:53I was like, no, no, I'm not going to do that.But then she was like, come on.And I was like, no, yeah, I actually decided I'm just going to ask him entirely about XRP.He died laughing.I was like, yeah, I'm just going to ask him, you know, about.the future the financial system being built on obviously ex-rp rails and we were laughing you didn'tknow what you were talking about but then no he knows and then he said to me actually if we had aconversation about certain parts of the alt coin market i think you'd find me more constructive than
11:22i was in the past well well i don't know if you've seen he's he's praised tom lee to some degreeand you know i think uh the mentality is broadened on his side like i don't think he's going to bebuying Solana anytime soon, but I do think that, you know, it's not all or nothing Bitcoin,even with some of the more ardent people. Andrew, at the very beginning, you mentioned,obviously, this sort of structural bid. Right now it ain't on Bitcoin. It ain't coming fromtreasury companies. This is from our friend David Young at Coinbase, the whole article on it righthere, but basically saying, you know, Coinbase says Bitcoin treasuries are ghosting, but two firms justbought 205 million. Of course, that's American Bitcoin, which is Trump. And strategy bought
12:11390 Bitcoin yesterday, bringing them up to 640,000. But when you look at this chart, that darkblue right there is Bitcoin buying. It doesn't really exist from digital asset treasury companiesright now. Right. I kind of asked him about that privately. I've had 10 conversations I had dinnerwith James Lavish last night, I think it's fair to say that a lot of these were fly by night,not maybe prepared for the future.They all smash bought Bitcoin with every penny they had and can't even buy dips,which is pretty freaking lame, if you ask me.Like, they should have, every Bitcoin treasury company, if it was well managed,
12:50should be doing what Tom Lee has been doing with Bitmine, which is just smashing the dip for the last two weeks.yeah Tom Lee's a pretty sharp guy I mean you know he's pretty good at this yeah whatever heand sailors pretty good at this maybe those guys are different than everyone else yeah he's beenhe's been doing it a long time and not only you know is his firm as well known as as anyanalysis firm on the on the actual street not the crypto street but the actual streetbut he was a he was an operator at jp morgan for uh you know almost 20 years before he started his firmSo he's the real deal, and his hair is extraordinary on top of that.So, you know, following, you know, Tom Lee's moves and then, you know, making some decisions of your own is never really a bad idea.
13:42And then the comments, can't remember the last time Tom Lee got something, right?Yeah, I mean, that's just the most correct person on Wall Street.He's the only, he's been the mega bull through every call for a recession or depression.maybe he's not right about like bitcoin's not a billion dollars today or whatever hyperbolictargets but directionally i don't think there's anybody who's been more right but his his hyperbolictargets have all come true except probably the last one right so over the last like eight yearshe'll have a new price target it may not meet the date and time exactly the way that he wants butlike six months later it actually meets the the price target right so yeah he's
14:24Yeah, he's been right again and again and again and again.And what is his foundational philosophy?Hey, flows are not going to stop.Demographically, people will not stop putting money into the marketbecause that's the way the market works right now.So it will go higher.And any asset that is attached to that machine is also going to go higher.So, you know, it's not really all that difficult.
14:49It's just he's really good at talking about it, right?their thought leaders. And like you said earlier, there were a lot of, I think, imitators that maybe came into the space. Some not imitators. I think there are a lot of the treasury companies. It's just a matter of time. Like, will they survive, how they survive? I think it's tricky right now, you know, specifically some of them trading below MNAV, like MNAV of ones. And some of them trading way below an MNAV of one. And, you know, a lot of people look at that machine that, thatTaylor's built and have misunderstandings about it.You know, I talk to people all day long that say, well, he's smash buying at the top.Why shouldn't I?They literally tell me that.And I'm like, well, he's borrowing money to buy Bitcoin.And he gets to borrow the most money when Bitcoin's at its highest.
15:40Do you get to borrow more money when Bitcoin's at its highest?No.Oh, well, then you shouldn't be following what he does.He's doing it for very specific reasons.A lot of people don't know that.And I think getting into the game is a lot harder than talking about getting into the game.And, you know, look, I remember like it was yesterday, we were at the Bitcoin Conference one of the years.And everybody thought Sailor was going bust.
16:06Remember?It was like 17,000.If it hits 17,000.Oh, it was every price.Yeah, every price.Like 29.It was like 27.He's out.
16:1424.He's out.21 is definitely out.And he was like 3,500, I'll start to maybe have a problem.He literally was saying it.And so you look at that story and you go, did he dodge that many bullets or is thisthat bulletproof strategy?And time will tell.
16:30We don't know.Either all of these other treasury companies 10 years from now are going to make us allregret talking bad about them and they'll be huge and Bitcoin will be 13 milliona coin and it will be a can't miss situation or it's going to take some realnavigation skills to get the Bitcoin company that you're running, or treasury company where you'rerunning to look like sailors. And if you look at sailors history, one would tell you that you'regoing to have to dodge some of those bullets. Maybe not all of them, because you've got some greatthought leaders in front of you that you can, you know, learn from. But some of them are going to
17:09hit. And trading, I don't know how many times we need to go back and probably look at, how didsailor navigate buys during negative m nev periods like what what did he do i can't really rememberme honest with you because he's been a positive mnav for well ever remember that sailor and this isthe right way to do it for years and years and years was simply buying buying bitcoin with theprofits associated with selling micro strategy stuff so micro strategy was a meaningful companythat created software and other things that they sold to the public as micro strategystrategy. And so during that period of time, for a period of, let's just call it four to six years,he was using that revenue to allocate to Bitcoin, which is the right way to do a, you know, a Bitcoin
17:58strategy. It's to use other revenue that is ongoing revenue to accumulate Bitcoin, not, you know,frankly, the digital asset treasury companies, which, you know, somehow raise money and then hopethat additional money will be created out of thin air that you could buy, you know, more tokenswith. That's not a great strategy. So he did it that way for a very, very long time untilhe found himself in a place where he could, you know, use the machine that is Wall Streetand the preferreds that he's created, all that stuff to buy significantly more Bitcoin.So back then, to be fair, MNAV, the term, didn't even exist.Nobody had ever, nobody had created it, you know.
18:48Well, and treasury companies didn't exist.He, you know, he created both of those coined terms.Yeah, he's, listen, again, another foundational thing,Sailor probably doesn't think of it this way,but I know that Tom Lee does, is, and he's mentioned it a time or two.When, you know, it used to be don't fight the Fed.Now it's don't fight the think, right?So if Larry's out there going crazy,
19:13about tokenization of everything.One thing that we haven't talked about,that would be great to talk about,is what happens to futures marketswhen everything's tokenized and trading 24-7?Yeah, that'll be interesting.Like, are they gonna continue to exist?Like, why would they exist?
19:32Do they exist now?Would be money.Yeah, that's a different conversation.But, you know, Larry's gonna be using Ethereum.He's-And once the perpetual swap,And once the perpetual swap comes to like tradify markets as well, which is exactly right.So, you know, if Larry's all in and BlackRock's biggest asset manager on the planet will continue to be,
19:53then Tom Lee's like, what real risk am I taking here that Ethereum goes down a little bit?I mean, it's not, you know, there's going to be the adoption of Ethereum as a technology and as a being used across the larger financial markets.He knows that's happening and will continue to happen.So he's in good spot.You know, it's don't fight to think.So if that's his, you know, ongoing foundational pieces, yeah, he's, he's,he's, he's, let's not up a little bit.Don't fight the thing.
20:27Yeah, you missed it the first time because you were up at 3.30 this morning,playing crap.Whatever, man.All right.I'd fight to think.That is, my question is, and, you know, not to bang on the, you know,know, the Monday guys, is McClone still in the spot where he thinks Bitcoin's going to 10,000?I want to know. Is he still there? Is that still happening?
20:54Diverr take 10%.So it may go to 11,000 then. He's adjusted.And then, by the way, we would tell him how wrong he was.Yeah, yeah, yeah. If it went to 11, no, no.didn't get them out and you said 10 yeah oh man it's very verish i don't know he's veryvery well listen a lot of people are and that's what big drops like last week or a coupleweeks ago do to you i mean it's it's it broke all the technical charts that that liquidity eventbroke every pattern almost that everybody certainly on all coin charts yeah all the coin charts specifically
21:42And so, you know, what does that do?It sucks the life out of the market.I don't know if you guys feel it, but this week is just sapsed.I mean, most of the news articles are just total duds.I mean, it's just like nobody wants to talk about it.Everybody's gone away and licking their wounds.And, you know, that's indicative to me of a bottom.That's, that's, that is what blood in the streets looks like, you know, where everybody's back at home healing.
22:08You know, there is no doubt that.the infrastructure that the largest companies in the world are setting up will be used that's theway i look at it it would be no different than the you know the movie uh build it and they will comeif if there's a giant amusement park called field of dreams build a field of dreams yeah if youbuild a giant amusement park in downtown metropolitan in any city pick one people are going to show upand want to come they're going to buy tickets so you know this is just a matter of when the parkopens, how many rides open, how high you have, tall you have to be to get on the ride.It's just a bunch of, you know, growing pains, essentially, essentially.
22:51But Tom Lee, I love them.And you guys forgot to mention, in my opinion, the most convincing argument that he is a geniusis that he is a pudgy penguin.He owns one.He's proud of owning one.He has an out there for everyone.I did not say that.but pudgy penguins forever
23:11if you build itpudgy penguins he'll comethat movie that movie was great manJames Earl Jones that was a great moviethey don't make them like that anymorelike you just in Iowa cornfieldshoeless Joe Jacksonjust out there just playing and you thought
23:29it was about him but it was really about his dadyeah it was a story about a kid and his dadGod you missed the old story was all about usokay that's right I can watch itI mean, you're talking about these institutions and this potential adoption.I mean, I don't know if you guys even saw this.IBM launches digital assets platform as cryptoactivity jobs.Like there's no company left.
23:50Yeah, that was going to be my response.Yeah.Once IBM gets in, which is the most stodgy old tech firm that exists.I didn't even know they still existed.Yeah.So, I mean, once you get to IBM, I mean, the only place that, the only place thatleft is like proctor and gamble i mean you who else is going to with johnson and johnsoncovering heavy with a meme yeah right so so um we're there i mean everybody's doing something and
24:22and oh by the way the shift is so big that they're kind of proud to announce it as well thatwouldn't happen in three or four years ago well they're proud to announce it and even the ones thatlike this week has been a dead week with the exception of one headline that we've not talking aboutJ.P. Morgan Chase allows ETH and BTC to be collateral.I talked to that. I talked to Sala about that.Yeah. I mean, it's just massive. Think about the private wealth division of J.P. Morgan.And all of those people now going, hmm, if I buy some Bitcoin or Eith, I can borrow against it.Actually, what they're saying, all the people who work there are like, God damn it, I need to cancel my golf round and figure out what the fuck Ethereum is.
25:07use it and you'll find out real quick and you'll have a different opinion depending upon when you use ityeah that's true again the the jp morgan interest in crypto i knew at some point there would bethe dam would break in terms of of customers demanding that they want this functionality yeah becauseI may have said it a time or two before on this show, the ocean of ultra high net worth clients at J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs, you can't find the size and scale at any other firm, but those two in terms of ultra high net worth. So 25 million liquid or more. You can't even be a Goldman Sachs customer if you don't have that. But J.P. Morgan's private bank division and Goldman Sachs wealth division,And I mean, when you get big money, those are the two names that you go to, right?And so those customers and those clients are like, J.P. Morgan figured out, well, they may have, you know, 47 million long with us.But about 12% of the people that we work with have another 30 million in Bitcoin and Ethereum that we have nothing to do with.So we probably should make a shift there.
26:32We should probably change that, right?There's another interesting note asterisk to put into that.If you think about J.P. Morgan specifically, but also Goldman, their primary function through IPO launches has been to lend against share value for anyone that has substantial amount of shares.Because most of the people who have substantial amount of shares have lockup agreements, they can't sell for a certain specific period of time, and they meet money.And those banks lend against that.And they take a big cut of the IPO for launching it, supporting it, going out and promoting it.And if there's a lot of crypto companies that are going to be going public, wouldn't you think that they would need to be able to lend against crypto assets and do all of the functions that they've been doing for the Tradfai IPO space?But now for this new IPO craze that includes crypto being on the balance sheet, that seems like there's.
27:33setting themselves up to be you know perfectly suited for that all three of us spent three daysat the bitcoin conference in the bitcoin whale space which by the way was bigger than it ever has beenhad 2,500 quote unquote VIPs in Wales in there were there a bunch of 30 year olds in that crowdno the average age was like 52 or 54 in that crowd and I guarantee you that crowd havemeaningful accounts at J.P. Morgan Private Bank or Goldman Sachs or Morgan Stanley. And so, again,it was only a matter of time until those organizations said, okay, we can make more moneyby offering services and products associated with that type of group. So, you know,so here's the headline jumper here that we can, breaking news, you've heard it here first.
28:33I want to hear what the rate is.I want to hear what that loan package looks like because I want to compare it to othercollateral and I want to see the evolution.If it's below market, if it's below incentives, what is it?I don't know, but it's going to be, I can guarantee it's going to be below like thecrypto native lending now.I think, you know, we kind of have 8 to 12% floating rates.I don't think it'll be four or five like securities lending, but I think it'll be six or seven
29:06if I had it. Yeah, it'll be below. Or it'll be blended with your security. Or it'll just be blendedwith your securities. And I mean, that's how they do securities anyways, right? It's a differentrate depending on how they determine. If you're riding like a 3x Nvidia short ETF in your portfolio,you don't get the same rate as Proctor and Gamble. That's a great point. Yeah. So they'll just rateyou based upon the weighted percentage that you have in your portfolio. It's the JP. It's the JP, it's theJ.P. Morgan bid, though, right? So their assumption is, is that more people will bring these assets to usbecause they know if the world comes to an end, the one bank that won't go down is J.P. Morgan, right?So I can trust that, you know what, J.P. Morgan versus Coinbase, well, I take six and a half percent versus
29:51nine percent, but I know if things go to absolute shit that, you know, J.P. Morgan's still going to bestanding, you know, on the hill of banking. Yes.Well, but to Scott's point is most of those guys have much lower rates because they're all in, you know, bonds and pretty, pretty, you know, blue chip type.Yeah, and so theirs is going to be even less of a hit.It's not even going to be a conversation.They're going to move it this much because their exposure to crypto is going to be between, you know, 3% and 5%, let's call it.It's going to be insignificant to start, which is great.That's what we want.
30:28You know, we want people going, yeah, sure.Let's put three.Yeah, Drew's asked if you think they'd bail out banks like J.P. Morgan.Yes.I don't even need to read the rest of your house.Yes.Yes. Too big to fail is a real thing.And I don't know if, you know, Coinbase gets that benefit of the doubt, right?
30:47But J.J.J.P. Morgan certainly will.So we'll see.I don't know if you guys saw this, but actually yesterday, I kind of missed it because I was doing money 2020 things.But there was a salon of UTF was approved.Mistaking, H-barE-Barr-E-F, apparently H-bar went up.That's a thing that goes up in this world.Lightcoin approved, like it's happening.
31:11Dude, like coin's awesome.Light coin is, yes.And a light coin ETF is beyond me.I mean, I don't, I have no idea.I want to meet.I used to mine like, okay, boomer.Light coin's hot with the kid.It's like six, seven.
31:28I didn't just say 6-7 back thenI didn't know if you all knew the referenceI was going to point it outI'm coolI'm here I'm Steve Bouchermywith the skateboard herehow are you doing fellow kidsI were all you fellow
31:44umyeah I meanheck light coin's founder was likeyeah I wouldn't I really wouldn't dolight coin again I'd just buy BitcoinI meanso one of the thingYeah he said that yeah
31:57But Lyquoid does have a pretty cool privacy layer, and that's a very, like, compelling thing.You know, mimble, nimble, whimble, whatever, you know, all these things.But I interviewed Charlie.Kevin, you're not.You're not getting privacy when you're investing in a Lycoyn ETF.Like, it's not.No, but it doesn't have mimble, wimble layer built in.Let's look at Zcash as an example of what that's totally, privacy is a thing right now.
32:24Dead coin that was completely off.everyone's radar and i don't know what do scott do you know if it was tied to the whole knots uh youknow bitcoin core debate or i'm gonna be honest i've had some conversations about it here i don't reallyknow but i think just like basically a bunch of influencers are like what's some dead shit we canbuy a lot of and pump yeah it seems like it yeah 360 if it went from 50 bucks to 360 bucks inlike the last eight days or some short yeah i mean here's a compelling chart yeah there you goCool.The cash.
32:59The future of money.Yeah.I don't know.It's inferior to Monaro, just FYI.It's whatever.Before we start talking about what I actually want to talk about, which is the Algos.We've got a few stories here.French considers build to accumulate 2% of Bitcoin total supply to establish a Bitcoin strategic reserve.
33:23It actually has a lot more stuff.That would be wild.That would be wild.That would be wild.It's not going to pass.One of the chances, none.But the fact that like this is now being proposed in countries like France shows you sortof the tailwind or the inevitability of seeing this everywhere as the United States talks
33:43about it more.And of course as the United States just actively steals it from other countries, you know,like Cambodian, Chinese criminals.state for its history, aren't we thinking about it the right way?You know, the United States has been in the business of conquering for a very, very long time.It's called confiscating, guys. It's not stealing, okay?When you government, you confiscate things.No, you, yeah, you take claim.
34:13You plant your flag in their 127,000 Bitcoin and say this land belongs to the United States.Should we talk about, should we talk about how amazing things are going?Yeah, for sure, yeah, with pivoting.So like, I know I told you guys and this is whatever, like my priority is not a cash balance in my account that is up.I want to accumulate a lot more coins and my baseline was smash buying at $125,000 and I will remind you that I smash bought over 30% of my portfolio over $121,000 because I wanted to get it going.That said, my Robin Hood account here, although minimally, it's up, which is just crazy with how far down we're trading on the three assets that I'm using, obviously, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. Let me dig into this. And what's also crazy, so I added 50 grand. So this is a $150,000 portfolio up slightly. But what's crazy about this is, like, I think a week ago or something, I was back down to like eight grand cash.Yeah.And I was like, damn, I'm going to definitely add some more.
35:23And the guys were like, hold up, watch this.And now I'm at $26,000 cash because it bought the dead ass bottom of Solana and Ethereum again.And then sold it to make me more cash.And in the meantime, you can see right here, my average cost on Salada, 186, 73.It's trading at 201, made a total return of 1600.There's the equity.Ethereum average cost, it's under $4,000 at $39.37. It's currently trading at 4140. Total returns that. And this is with it selling a bunch.
35:56And of course, my basis on Bitcoin is 115, 634 because half the Bitcoin that I bought was like 121.So that I'll show you how exceptionally well it's actually performed like under 110. But the best part is that now when I get Bitcoin dips, it's using the cash I made from Salada and Eath to buy those gifts.Yeah, point being is not having to add more cash. The algorithms are creating that cash on yourbehalf that then can be used to buy more bitcoin it's an extraordinary and here's the salada like i meanit's just it's almost comical i don't know what kind of magic wizardry but like it like i just wake upi'm like oh made some money oh bought some stuff oh made some money oh bought some stuff and this is in likea really kind of boring range after a dip yeah so that's the point is that it takes trades whenthe trades can be taken and most of those trades uh have you've got to sit there and pay attention
36:50in the market at a very intense level to do the calculations needed to take them.And so the yield harvesting that can be accomplished when prices are in kind of boring,trending chandals or rounding bottoms can be exceptionally powerful because especially on therounding bottom side, you know, when you have a big crash like we saw, obviously whateveryou bought up here, you're in a loss on. But typically,big, big crashes are followed by bounces. And so whatever you bought down here averages out andyou're in profit on. So there's a lot of cases where you can have a big crash, but because you havea disciplined approach and you're not smash buying with 100% of your capital, yeah, you smashed
37:37bought with 20% of your capital at the top, but that's okay. You believed in your heart,part of that decision that you made was when you ask yourself, well, how quickly do you thinkthese assets could go up. If your answer is they could rocket 40% in the next two months,well, guess what? You've got to put your money where your mouth is if you believe that,and you've got to have some exposure, right? And so that some exposure is, you know, 20 to 30%of your capital staff. And it should be also noted that, like, there's no fees on Robin Hood,but I'm paying a relatively high spread, and we're working through that with them becausethey, like, I should be at a much better tier, the volume that we've been doing, just being totally
38:18transparent with everyone and they're fixing that because i because of the API it didn't automaticallyput me to the other tiers and this will be for everyone so actually this performance would be probablya percent give or take better yeah you know what i find compelling about that chart that saidrobin hood did not go down and did allow us to buy those bottoms when nobody else could do it onany other exchange so maybe i'm actually outperforming because they don't have an order book that'sgetting smashed through their sourcing that liquidity so i think it actually ended up being a netbenefit for being on well that that chart showed the last three the last three cells on salanalook at the candles that they sold on right so those are those are those are those are significant up
39:01candles at the top of those candles you know when when salana went you know popped on the dipand then trundled along then popped again then moved along then popped again and each time you'retaking advantage of that, no matter if it's two in the morning in Las Vegas or if it's four in themorning in Tampa, right? It's just doing the work for you. Yeah, I hate to say it, but I mean,those candles are ripe for taking some profits. Look how low the volume is on them. Like,you don't, like when you have big price movements on low volume to the upside, that's a good,that's a good time to think about how much you could take off the table to alleviate some of the riskof a collapsing price off of little volume and big price movement.
39:47Like that's a natural thing that if you're not sitting there paying attentionand like I said earlier doing the calculations,it's pretty much no one does it because it's a pain.It's really hard.Honestly, though, like I said this before,if this is the if it's obviously probably exceptionally well,like if it literally just was smart enough to buy the clothes on a down candleand sell the top of,
40:12of an up candle you'd still do so much better than a human without even the extra parts because itwill prevent you from fomowing and at least you'd be there at the moment when it closed and you hadsome confirmation well you're in profit at the bottom on some of these charts like wait until there'sa decent recovery you know then then that you'll see over a larger you know sample size of timethis type of a strategy starts to shine like nothing.Nothing else. Why? Well, because it's compounding on compounding, and it's compounding at a rate that is very fast. It's a look at the frequency of trades that are taking place. Yeah. Quickly, I wanted to show this. I would love to launch Archpublic, but I'll never get the guideline like Scott gets from this company. That's what I'm afraid of. I'm a newbie to trading. I want to be very clear. I did not get special preference or treatment. If you are a concierge customer, you will get the exact same as me. And it was me who set my algorithm.of them to buy really aggressively right before the biggest gift in history. They did not tell meto do that. In fact, they will not give you guidance on the very, very specifics. They're not
41:25financial advisors. But you can say, hey, what Scott got set up? And you guys can do it.Yeah. Well, we're going to go through. I actually have, I got to find it. I have somewhere in ouremail a PDF of my exact setup. Yeah, you do. Right. I asked you guys to send that to me. I knowI've got that. Let me love it. Yeah, you have it. And you can go in and tweak it. And our job is to teach youhow to use the software. And I will correct you on one thing you said a minute ago. We will give youthe same level of service, whether you're a concierge customer or whether you're using it for free.We want you to take trades with the software. We want you to see what you've been missing out on as itpertains to automated trading. And you setting up your preferences and your exact wishes so that they can then be
42:11executed when you're not sitting there paying attention and having to monitor the market.That's what our goal is.And so even if you have no interest in moving into our concierge division, call us, let us helpyou set up the free product, our free version, and you can run that indefinitely, absolutelyno cost, and you can see exactly what we're so excited about.So, you know, we're going to give you as much service as we gave Scott, even if you don'tbuy anything from us yeah i'm trying to fight i'm trying to pull it up here um but it's really hardat one little laptop show i did it yeah we have listen we we have to give you a little you know
42:52peel back the curtain since you've been running your portfolio we have a lot of people that arecalling up and say hey just give me the milker right and we're happy you know what i sometimes my wifesays that well speaking of the milker this is the milker so let's look at this uh scott wanted toset up a very... Can you see it? Like I can't join in to Zoom. No, no, that's perfect. So let's look at this.This is Solana daily arbitrage strategy. Every entry trade, it purchases $2,900 when the price drops by2.5%. Exit trade. Sell 1,300 when price rises by 2.1%. Very easy. So if you say, you know what,I'm not getting enough trades here. I want to get more trades. Well, you would move that 2.5% to2.3% and you get more trades because it's smaller, it's a smaller hurdle for it to reach for you to trigger that event.
43:49That has to be a 2.5% drop on a, like we're looking at the six hour on a two.But I've got it right below on the six hour too.So I can buy more.2.5% has to be within that six hour period and on the close.Bingo.So it's got to be a pretty bad.So what you do is is you can triage.You can set up one for 24 hours.
44:10But let's say a price swing happens in 24 hours and then it recovers within that 24-hour period.Well, that won't trigger an event in that 24-hour candle because it didn't close below the trigger or above the trigger.But you can set up multiple instances on different time frames.If you set one up on the six-hour candle, well, maybe that one did trigger because it closed below the threshold.So there's a number of ways whereby which you can layer these to create exactly the frequency of buyingthat you want. But the important thing to note here is look at how much you're buying. So you'rebuying 2,900 and you're selling 1,300. So you have a greater than 2 to 1 bull bias is what I wouldcall it. You're leaving more than half on the table. But if it keeps going up, I still get
45:00the opportunity to sell more as opposed to just unloading the whole trade up 2.1% or whatever.That's right. But that available cash that you have in your account,now I can't remember what was it like $29,000 yeah let's just say you wanted more cash well thenyou could bump you could lower that 1300 right so that you left more cash and so youexcuse me if you wanted more cash you'd raise the 1300 so that you would harvest more and thatnumber would be higher than it is and so if you're looking at your buying strategies over the last threeweeks or however long you've been active with this this batch you could say okay I want tospeed this up a little bit, a little bit, or I wish I had a little bit more cash through next cycle of
45:44events, you can tweak it very, very easily across every single strategy, and you get that specificresult that you're looking for, right? It's awesome. But these are all of the strategies. So you'rerunning a lot. That was because- Hey, guys, am I being transparent enough?Showing people, showing people exchange accounts on a live stream. I've literally gone.I won't say the word, but as, you know, from the tropic thunder, never go full read.Yeah, that's correct.Yeah.Again, the most compelling thing to me that you've said in the last 10 minutes is I was down to
46:21$6,000 in cash and then almost immediately I had another $20,000 in cash based on what theAlco's did.It should also be notable that like when I asked about it, this is like a historic dip thatI started 12 minutes before, right?So like we're going through like not.what would be considered the normal conditions of how this would this would operate.So I'm still generating cash through the worst liquidation event in crypto history.Correct. Correct. But that's yield farming. Yield farming doesn't care where it goes. It just cares
46:55that the thing shakes like a rattlesnake tail, right? That's what you want. And so all of thisvolatility that's happening, either whether it's up or down, you have events taking place.And those events are in profit if you set the parameters to not sell below your cost basis.So every time you have a selling event, you know you've made money on it.And you know you've made the ratio of money on it that you've set up two to one, three to one, one, one half, you know, whatever you want.It becomes an exercise of you imposing your will on the market.And when that starts to trigger without you having to sit there and do it yourself, it's the most empowering feeling from a market control perspective that I've,I've ever gotten my hands on.
47:39And what's funny is because of my aggressive smash buying at the beginning, which was justBitcoin, basically, mostly.Actually, it was a bit of everything, but mostly, like my cost basis is 156.We're right at 154 now.So I haven't even actually triggered any of the selling ARB on Bitcoin, which is the largestposition.So if I had not done that, I think we'd even be seeing some wilder performance here.We're walking through what so many of our customers ask us, well, you know, how does it perform in a bear market?
48:12How does it perform in down markets?How does it perform when we're at the top?I'm nervous that we're at the top.So should I do this?Should I do that?This is a case study in it doesn't matter how or when you use our tools.You're better off if you use the tools.Forget about timing, forget about circumstance, forget about all that stuff.
48:32You are better off if you use.use our tools, period. Full stop. Yeah, it would be, and it's so obvious that we're giving theproduct to you for free so that you can see that. It would be like if you were trying to hand-diga swimming pool in your backyard with a shovel, and we showed up with an excavator and said,hey, look, these little joysticks you can move around and this whole hole will be dug in theday. And you go, no way. And I say, well, hop up in there and try it. You take your first scoop ofsoil and you're like, sign me up. I'm going to throw the shovel away. I don't need this anymore.You know, that's, it's very empowering and eye-opening. I mean, Solado was like 2.30 when we started or
49:15something. Eith must have been. I'm lucky. It had to be like pushing five grand. I was like 40,45, it might have been 47 or something like that. So I'm going to go, I'm going to do the math at somepoint, but I, there is no way I would have, like, I haven't. I have a, I have a, I have adone the exact map, but there's just no way that I would have, you know, 0.77 Bitcoin,3.76, Ethan, 104 Salonah right now if I had come anywhere close to smash buying rightthen, which, of course, especially on Ethan Salon.And by the way, it's not just like a convenient benchmark because we were making a new all-timehigh and everybody thought we were going straight to 150. So, like, it's good to go back in
49:56hindsight, I'd be like, yeah, you got the great dip to buy. I was one of those dudes. Like,I got to get this thing in now or it's not going to.work because your portfolio we're on fire right now if we pop to 150 right so it's doingexceptionally well under the worst conditions what do you think it would do under the best conditionsright it just volatility yields that's the whole point of it i think one thing to point out thatshouldn't be lost here is that scott is not the most focused individual i have everthat's an insults crossing my life that's an unfair assessment ofAll I would say it is, is that you are, you're kind of like ADD or ADHD, whatever it is.
50:38And you're the busiest human, I know.You're literally flying all over the world.How hard do you think it would be for you to manage 12 strategies both buying and selling?If you didn't have this sitting there doing it, you couldn't is the point.I can't manage brushing my teeth on time.Yeah, that's my point.Is this allows you to be a pro?Yeah.
51:01Yeah, it's awesome.Yeah, yeah. It's wildly outperforming. People, there's a million questions in the, Lucas in the comments. So I guess he could just answer questions for everyone. Luke obviously watches the show, but is there a minimum amount you might want to stay over for better trading? No. No. No. It's all relative. It goes, it's all relative to the size of your portfolio. And by the way, that's good because some people think that, oh, I've only got a thousand bucks. I should lever up 10x.so that I've got 10,000 bucks, this will steadily make you more money and get your portfolioup to where you needed to be without being the, falling into the leverage trap and doing itright. So no, there's no amount. But yes, you're not going to bring in $1,000 and be worth$100,000 next month doing this. No. Yeah, our critical alga does never use leverage.You would do manually, right? And that's what it is. It's about being available. It's aboutdoing a lot of calculations and being disciplined. Software does that. And so when you tell it to do
52:03something and the market gives an opportunity for that to be done, it qualifies for that event.There isn't a person sitting behind that button going, do I feel good? Am I tired? Am I at thecomputer? It does it. And it's your execution based upon what you want to have happen.And again, it's until you see it.But if you're trading $1,000, $10,000, even $20,000, $30,000, unless you're trading exceptionallyaggressively, you can use our free product with no costs.And you absolutely can put that money to work.That's the whole point of our free product is to help people who can't afford the product
52:45still get access to it and help them get into crypto in a way that's better than justthem emotionally buying in and selling whenever they, you know, are emotionally needing the cash.I'm going to be honest. If you criticized me and told me I had ADD in the time since you've done that,I realized that I brought my charger over but not plugged it in. So I plugged in my charger.I responded to a text from my wife about a hotel reservation. And then I responded to a landscaping guy.Yeah, the best part about my new studio, the best part about my new studio that I'm going to be in where I'm sitting at like a news desk with a huge screen is I won't have the distractions.I won't available, readily available.But I do now know the 10 best hotels in the place that we're likely going skiing this winter.
53:41And by the way, if you do call in for customer support, 90 plus percent of them.of our employees were customers.They have a lot of empathy for how little,a lot of folks know about crypto.They have a lot of empathy about people being tech savvyor not being tech savvy.You have no fear of reaching out and at leastgetting to know some of the support staff that we have
54:05because they're some of the most exceptional peopleI've ever met, honestly.So we just spent a time up here together,you know, setting our course for 2026.And I don't think there was a person there that would say that they didn't leave exceptionally refreshed and excited to serve people exceptionally well.So put me to the test, call us.I would say I would agree with all that except I didn't necessarily leave refreshed.I drove back about an hour before I got home.
54:38I had to pull over to the side of the road and I threw up.So I don't know what that says about the five at the meat.but you know that did that was a real thing yeah I'm reading the comments I just want toknow which one of us is the word we can't say pretty sick of this re running hismouth and always chill then why watch right then why why chilling chilling is in flameproduct yeah it's free it's chill it's chill is that shilling product who is it is flame is the newhot rapper with the song six sevenis lame. I don't know, man. Anyways, we've done it. Hey, guys, the portfolio is up and the market's down. Okay? Are we done here?
55:31That's the tagline right there. Cool. Cool. Cool. Glad, glad, glad we had that conversation. All right, yeah, now we've got to run because now I have to go host Twitter spaces, which I will not at all be distracted during. I am, however, seeing it.lovely sunrise over the mountains of Las Vegas out the window now, but I'm still yellow.So we'll be back, obviously, next Tuesday to do this once again.I might be in my new studio, which might mean I can't do my taxes while you guys aretalking about, never fight the think.And so, you know, quality is going to improve many multiples.Andrew Tillett.Thank you, guys, as always, great show and great insight.
56:08And, guys, it works.The thing works.So check it out.Thanks, guys.See you.See you guys.Let's go.
There aren't comments yet for this episode. Click any sentence in the transcript to leave one.