The Wolf Of All Streets - Massive Bull Run Could Be Closer Than You Think!

Episode Date: September 26, 2024

Matt Hougan, the CIO of Bitwise, is joining me today to discuss whether or not Bitcoin shows the signs of a bull run and what to expect from crypto in the nearest future. Matt Hougan: https://x.com/Matt_Hougan ►► WANT MORE? JOIN MY COMMUNITY AND GET EVERYTHING WOLF OF ALL STREETS! 👉https://www.thewolfofallstreets.com/ ►►JOIN ROUNDTABLE! A NEW SOCIAL PLATFORM WHERE YOU CAN EARN REWARDS! 👉https://roundtable.rtb.io/shortUrl/taFNFGM ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEKDAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/   ►► The Arch Public Unleash algorithmic trading. Discover how algorithms used by hedge-funds are now accessible to traders looking for unparalleled insights and opportunities!  👉https://thearchpublic.com/  ►►TRADING ALPHA READY TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS? THE BEST TRADERS IN CRYPTO ARE RELYING ON THESE INDICATORS TO MAKE TRADES. Use code '10OFF' for a 10% discount. 👉https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker  Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://x.com/scottmelker Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.com/ Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe   Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c   #Bitcoin #Crypto #Investments The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

A massive bull run could be closer than you think. How's that for an excitable, bullish, hyperbolic title? Now, we have a long history of YouTubers being bullish no matters what happens and doing thumbnails with screaming faces because that's what you have to do to win the algorithm. But I actually believe it. And I have a feeling that my guest today, Matt Hogan, CIO of Bitwise, one of your favorites, and of course, mine, is going to share in that sentiment because the guy has never turned bearish, and he's the one who actually knows what's happening behind the scenes. We're going to talk about all the reasons that the Bitcoin and crypto markets seem to be heating up and poised

for a major bull run. If you missed this one, I can't help you. Time to go. Let's go. What is up, everybody? I'm Scott Melker, also known as the Wolf of Wall Street. Before we Let's go. six or seven hours, but it seems to have slowed down. So right now I still have an internet connection and get to talk to one of my favorite people, Matt Hogan. Good morning, sir. How are you? Good morning, Scott. I'm doing well. Sorry that you're in harm's way. Yeah, I live in Florida. We just call it Tuesday. If you're not getting hurricanes, you're not a Floridian. The memes are always great about how casually we take it. Like hurricane prep is like two bottles of tequila and a couple movies downloaded on your iPad.

So I think we're going to be quite fine, at least where we are, hopefully. But listen, massive bull run could be closer than you think. Exclamation point. You know, we talk about these things all the time. But I think if you have a low time preference and you've been Zoomed out, there's nothing new here. It's just that people doubt it right before it's going to happen. I mean, we've kind of said and predicted

that summer would be really boring. Sideways chop. We were right. But then when the next part's coming, it hasn't come yet, so you don't want to be too bullish and excited but uh you have been right bitwise cio says the most powerful people in finance are allocating to crypto let's just go into some of the bullish narratives here but i do want to start here this is obviously you on the block what are we talking about here because we haven't necessarily

seen the institutions themselves or the clients allocating, but this is about the actual people themselves privately. The actual people, yeah. This is the step before the institution stampede through the door. This was sort of an incredible moment for me. I speak each year at the Barron's Top 100 Conference. It's the 100 largest financial advisors and wealth managers in the world down at the Breakers in Florida. It's always very posh and very nice.

And at the start of my speech, I've been doing this for three years, I always ask the audience, how many people here own crypto? And I like to do it because you like to get the audience engaged. But I also like to make a joke about no one putting up their hands and hopefully we can convert a few of them. That's how the beginning shtick of my speech goes. And I asked this time, this year, last year I did it, maybe 10% of the hands went up. Two years ago, it was maybe five. I asked this year and it was 70 or 80% of the hands. The whole room owns crypto in their personal accounts. And I verified this afterwards, I had dozens of people come up to me that are very senior and very major Wall Street institutions and talk about their personal crypto holdings. This is night and day from a year ago, I think the catalyst is Bitcoin ETFs, they made it easy for these people to allocate. And the important thing that I know from having been at Bitwise for six years is the step before they allocate en masse for clients is doing it themselves. So they are all doing it themselves. There's 70,

80% of them are doing it themselves. That tells me when I go back next year, all the clients of these people are going to have allocations to crypto. And that does tell me that the bull market is near, Scott. Is this because they're testing it? They need to be able to say to their clients they have skin in the game? Or do you find it's because they've been orange-pilled and they're going full sailor? You know, it's a little bit of both, honestly. Part of it is testing it.

Advisors, to their credit, want to test it personally and make sure that nothing bad happens. I actually think that's completely appropriate. But having discussed with a number of people afterwards, there's pretty widespread concern about the macro situation, about the re-rise of monetary printing, cutting rates. There's just concern about the dollar. So some of them are legitimately macro orange billed, and some of them are just testing it for clients. But when I say it's like, you know, it's 10x, it's just a massive difference from where we were a year ago. Yeah, I think so as well. And there's a lot of other reasons, I guess, to be bullish. But it's interesting because a lot of people say we're correlated to the other market.

So if there's fear that those markets could go badly, how are we so bullish on crypto? Right. But I think Bitcoin specifically, there's an argument either way. Right. Supposed to be a hedge against that in the first place. Yeah. Remember, these are like the wealthiest people in America and they're not going to spend their way to poverty. They're not really going to misinvest their way to poverty. The only real existential risk they have is sort of a collapse of the US dollar. And so I think a lot of them are just taking out insurance policies the same way people used to open Swiss Bitcoin accounts and holding some Bitcoin just so that they have a hedge against whatever risk may ensue in the traditional system. And I'm surprised that that narrative exists with this cohort of people, but it really has started to gain prevalence there.

I was surprised until Larry Fink started saying it on every single television show he could find. And we all know that there's no bigger voice, I think, to be pushing that narrative. If he says that they're going to listen, that's my point, right? Without Larry Fink and you guys out on the road show talking about that narrative, it would never happen.

I think that's right. And it's not just us, maybe, and then Larry Fink. Now there are dozens of major leaders that are all talking the same story. It's spiraling in a good way. Yeah. So have the conversations changed at all then on the ground? When you look at that room and everybody's hand goes up, it feels like when you guys go into a meeting to explain to RAs why they need to own this stuff, that maybe that part is done. So you move on to the next more advanced part of the conversation. We're getting there. There is definitely interest, at least from this group, in Ethereum for sure, in stablecoins, and a little bit in the broader ecosystem. The real change in the conversation has been around how custody works

and how mining works and all these sort of technical questions to how do I actually put it in a portfolio? Is it 1%, 2%, 5%? Do I rebalance quarterly or annually? They become very practical implementation questions. People are starting to look down chain. I think there'll be an alt season. I think we are going to get there. It's maybe delayed in people's minds, but I see no reason to assume that it won't happen. And certainly these people are starting to look for what is next and what's beyond it. Yeah, but that's interesting because when we talked eight months ago, it was all about Bitcoin education and explaining to them why it needs to be in their portfolio and what it is. So you've clearly moved to phase two. If it's become a more pragmatic, how do we actually do it? And getting into the details of mining and such, it seems like we're past that first phase with Bitcoin.

We are past that first phase with Bitcoin. We're past the, is this just a Ponzi scheme phase? We're past the, will this go to zero phase? Whether it's Larry Fink or just the passage of time or the macro conditions, we've now entered the phase where it's just a normal financial asset that people consider on its merits increasingly. And that's why you're seeing, I think you're seeing ETF allocations start to grow again, right? We pulled in half a billion dollars in the last five days. It's pretty incredible. I think it's this cohort. I don't think it's retail. I think this time it's this cohort of financial advisor wealth coming into the market. I think that's what you're seeing here. Right. And that's been exceptionally bullish for Bitcoin, obviously, itself,

which has sort of preempted the four-year cycle by making a new all-time high ahead of the halving. I think the question on everyone's mind then, which you did allude to, we will have another which has sort of preempted the four-year cycle by making a new all-time high ahead of the halving. I think the question on everyone's mind then, which you did allude to, we will have another altcoin season, is how does that money trickle down from a spot ETF into altcoins? I mean, I actually pulled up this tweet that I had recently. This is in 2023, March. I said, you could have hibernated or fallen on your head and stayed in a coma for the past year, woken up today and looked at this chart and ignored every single piece of macro or crypto news. The four-year cycle remains intact for now. The rest is noise. If you extrapolate that forward to September of 2024, still the case. So my argument would be, man, we wasted a lot of time on YouTube,

A, but B, that altcoins outside of the ETF approvals, altcoins are exactly where they should be coming into October of 2024. If you look at the halving cycle, we just it was only a Bitcoin bull market there for a while. But this altcoins do not move until six or eight months after the halving. And we're six or eight months after the halving. And I'll show people after we go off the charts are starting to move. Altcoins are starting to move. They're definitely starting to move. You can even see it in ETH,

but if you look further down the chain, you can... I think it's a contrarian play here, which is funny to say. But yeah, you can see it down the chain, and you can see it. There you go. It is cool to ETH now. And I do bet it down the chain and you can see it. There you go. It is cool to eat now. And I do bet it ends up looking silly.

I guess that means, yeah, I think that take ends up looking silly. Yeah, I was using that for a segue. Yeah, go ahead. No, I love that. I mean, on ETH specifically, I do think it suffered from a narrative gap. It's been like the middle child.

It's neither Bitcoin, which is entering the establishment, nor sort of Solana, Near, Sui, Monad majority dominated by stable coins, majority issued on ETH, DeFi still majority existing on ETH. I'm excited about, you know, what's going on in Solana, what's going on further down the chain. I think people are looking past sort of the importance of Ethereum, particularly as institutions come into the crypto market. They're going to come in primarily through ETH. And since I wrote this, it's looked pretty good. Again, cyclical, you know, like ETH is always dead at this part of the cycle. It's always dead. You always have like a clubhouse or Twitter spaces where a bunch of Bitcoin maximalists go on and celebrate the death of ETH. And that's the dead bottom. And we've had that with the articles again. I literally have friends who have capitulated their ETH this week. Like this was the time they were finally done with it. Like you suffered through all of that at going, you know, sub,

you know, 0.4 or whatever percentage of the Bitcoin ratio. And now, now is when you're finally done because it's dead. And now, now is when you're finally done because it's dead. And this is always what happens. People get so frustrated at this point in the cycle and they just absolutely give up. I mean, we talk about Larry Fink. BlackRock is literally like tokenizing

real world assets on Ethereum. And you're bearish. Like, I don't understand it. That's the thing. I really think that's the thing. People try to be too smart about this. If you're BlackRock and you're going to tokenize something, are you going to do it on Solana, whose software is.beta? Are you going to do it further down on these unproved chains? You're not. You're going to do it on Ethereum. It's the easy button. And so many people are bullish on tokenization and every bank is

looking at it. ETH is going to win 70% of those mandates. And it will sort out the issue with layer two, staffing the fees. There's going to be another period of people being really excited about ETH. I do think people try to be too smart about this. As you said, it's right on time. It's right on the cycle. And yeah, I think it looks pretty good in Eastland right now. So in the same article, you talked about a few other catalysts, the previous one, the 50 basis point interest rate cut. We do have a history of markets going down after big cuts, but a different kind of conversation. Morgan Stanley coming online, the SEC's approval of options. So we saw that the SEC approved options for BlackRock. I guess I'm not that surprised. When does that come to everyone

else? Well, yeah, first of all, we need CFTC approval as well. It's another one of these nuclear key settings where they don't launch until everyone agrees, but we will get that. I think it'll expand past BlackRock to others, hopefully including Bitwise soon. And I think this is another place where people try to get a little bit too smart in imagining what ETH options or what ETF options will mean for Bitcoin. The best way is to step back and think about this as further normalizing Bitcoin as a financial instrument in the world. Auctions exist on ETFs in every other asset class. They're very popular. They make it easier for more people to use those asset classes when building portfolios. The same thing is true here. It's

going to bring more people, bring more volume. Could it exacerbate volatility at the tails? Maybe. But mostly, it just further entrenches Bitcoin as an important financial instrument that people turn to at various points of the cycle. And that's just net good. So this is another net good. Yeah, I think we've talked about extensively the fact that most of these RIAs aren't even online, right? I think that that's still the case. Morgan Stanley now, as you said, and you've predicted on the last show, fourth quarter, a lot more wire houses are going to come online. That would actually be relatively fast for their due diligence. Even though we're impatient, it takes time for these things to happen. But the option story is actually a big part of that, that we weren't talking about,

right? First, you got to get them all online and have the ability to even buy the spot ETFs, but a lot of allocators won't buy an asset that they can't hedge. Yes. Yeah. No, I think that's- Even once they have access to spot, they need the options to actually give their clients exposure in a way that they feel is safe and comfortable. A hundred percent. And you'll see structured products that offer buffered protection will give you exposure to Bitcoin, but tap your downside. All of that further entrenches it and dramatically widens the group of people that can play in it. I would count this options approval as one of a handful of catalysts that I didn't expect.

We talked about expecting the fall and the winter to be great. I was not expecting this to happen, which is a major positive catalyst. I wasn't expecting my experience at Barron's to happen, which I see as an example of a major trend that I was overlooking. I wasn't expecting China to happen. I'm actually more bullish today than I was a few months ago, and I was pretty bullish looking at the end of the year. Are we talking about China stimulus? Yes, stimmies are back. This time via China. I mean, it's pretty incredible if you read through both the initial stimulus and then what the Politburo came out with yesterday. This is a lot of money. It's an aggressive easing, particularly around property and the restrictions

around the property market. And there are, in fact, stimmies going out to a certain subset of the population. Yeah, I mean, you know, Bitcoin is made for this situation. It's really hard to look at the line of things in Q4 and be anything but bullish. And this is just sort of like the cherry on top. Yeah, I keep saying this with regard to the election. Obviously, I think it's very bullish that Donald Trump is talking about, you know, making this a strategic reserve asset, protecting self-custody. Those things are all very important. And people are going to, this is redundant, but I think there's a very bullish case for Bitcoin itself. I'm not speaking about the crypto industry necessarily. If Kamala Harris wins for the exact reason you said, like if you buy Bitcoin for the fundamental reason that Bitcoin was created by Satoshi,

you do it when you think the money that the government is going to be irresponsible, print a lot of money that things could break down. So the, I'm going to say it again, the same buy guns, buy ammo, buy gold, move out of the country. People who buy those things when they think that there's a real risk of collapse should be buying Bitcoin as well. I mean, it sounds ridiculous to say, listen, Bitcoin goes up either way because it seems like we're ignoring any bearish potential. But the argument is there on both sides right now. I think the argument is strongly there. I'm glad you said Bitcoin and not crypto, because I do think there is a difference there in the two administrations. But under Bitcoin,

you're exactly right. Look, globally, we've sort of banned, we've made recessions illegal. And the way we've done that is by reacting with stimulus anytime there's any sort of waffling in the economy. And that just plays directly into Bitcoin's hands, regardless of what happens in November. Right. I mean, Bitcoin is supposed to be well correlated to liquidity, right? And liquidity is definitely on the way in here. Okay. So listen, I don't want to be full massive bull run closer than you think. What is the bearish case here? What could sort of derail the train at this point? Like would a 30% stock correction in November be wildly problematic for crypto? Do we even think that's, again, I don't think that's really allowed to happen. So I'm skeptical of that. I mean, a really aggressive hawkish regulatory turn on crypto, which is unlikely, but not impossible, I think would take some of the steam out of the entirety of the market.

And Bitcoin might gain market share, but might suffer from that as well. Other than that, I see too many positive catalyst stacking. Maybe if the major wire houses came out and said they weren't ever going to approve Bitcoin ETFs or something like that. It would have to be one of these real sideways surprises. Again, I think if we look down chain, there's a lot more risk. Even that, I mean, even that,

we're talking about a global asset. We're so singularly focused. Listen, it's your business. I'm standing here in this country, but we're so singularly focused on everything happening in the United States. That's always my takeaway, by the way, when I fly to Singapore for Token 2049, is that we're worried about all the wrong things. I sat down last year there with Haseeb Qureshi from Dragonfly, and I was like, dude, we were just at consensus. There were like 3,000 people instead of 10,000. Every booth was a lawyer, like a bankruptcy attorney or an accountant. There's nothing being built. Everybody's scared of the government. And you go over to Singapore and it's like Coachella. And he said, listen, when I come to Asia, they don't even know who SPF is.

They're trading crypto and they don't even know that FTX collapsed. They don't care. That was a news blip, an American story. He was dealing with American politicians. It was a passing story that was uniquely American. And then you go this year and you look and nobody's talking about Gary Gensler in Singapore. They don't care. They're not even talking about ETFs, right?

They're just building a bunch of stuff in Web3 and pouring money into parties and having a grand old time. So I think it's important to remember that I know my audience is probably primarily American and we're here, but this music is not stopping even if there's temporary pauses in this country. Yeah, I think that's right. I think that's a really strong point.

I think everyone who came back from Token had that feeling, right? And particularly when you look down chain, there was a lot of excitement around a lot of projects down the chain. And I think that's great. I'm over in Europe right now. You know, Europe is almost,

is maybe alone in starting to apply some sort of tough measures from a government side and sort of taking some economic. But it doesn't matter. Globally, that's not the story. Globally, what's happening is what's happening in China. On stimulus side, as you mentioned, what's happening in Asia with sort of the animal spirits of crypto. Yeah, I'm pretty bullish.

What brings you to Europe? I was at the European Blockchain Summit and Bitwise acquired the largest physical Bitcoin issuer in Europe. So I was visiting the team over here. Okay. So I didn't expect to, but Europe is sort of this also middle child, I think. We have no clarity here in the United States, although it's getting better. Asia is having a party and Europe had Mika, obviously, and has laid out some rules of the road, but not all that great necessarily. So how do you navigate that in the middle? Everyone was surprised to just get clarity with Mika, but then when you really dig into it,

a lot of it really can't be implemented. You're dealing with a number of countries. It's pretty hardcore for stable coins. I think there's a lot of different issues even in Europe. Yeah, it's really given me a perspective of valuing a lack of over-regulation in the early development of crypto in the US. I think there is a risk that Mika and other regulations are so precise that it just won't be fit for purpose for innovation in the crypto market. I think you're going to see a lot on tokenization and big banks getting involved in this space from Europe. But I doubt you'll see much of the sort of animal spirit side of things outside of maybe Switzerland. Switzerland is fairly innovative. But broader Europe, it feels pretty stayed institutional. It doesn't have the sort of innovative edge

that you see in part of, in the rest of crypto. Well, I'll tell you, there's something really interesting. It just came to mind. I unexpectedly interviewed Verena Ross. Here it is actually my interview with her on YouTube live at the Paris Blockchain Summit. She is the Gary Gensler of Europe, effectively. Although that's

not a very fair title because she's not as, you know, anti necessarily crypto. But I did say to her in this conversation, there's a perception that, you know, Europe's really gotten the rules right. You're pro crypto. And she was very quick to correct me and say we are not pro crypto at all. Why? She was offended that I would even say that. She basically just said, listen, we've set some established rules, but that doesn't mean that I'm pro-crypto in any way, shape or form. So I think that Europe could still be difficult. I think that's right. I also think it's a lesson for us here in the US as we get into what will be a more regulated market next year, regardless of who's in power. As we look at the bills coming through Congress, I think ideally they are limited in scope and they offer

simple protections and simple rules, but also a lot of room for innovation. I think if they get overly precise, we're going to see the same sort of stifling effect that perhaps may take place in Europe. Now it will have winners, to be sure, but I think there's a risk there that we should be looking out for. That's where it might matter who wins, right? Outside of Bitcoin, I mean, listen, I don't try to do politics. I don't care what you think about either candidate. Objectively, Donald Trump's probably not going to call everything an unregulated security when he's launching them. I mean, the guy literally is on his fourth NFT project and

is launching, you know, world liberty financial. I mean, he's literally launching tokens. So you're pretty sure that there's not going to be precise regulation banning tokens if he wins. Yes. Yes. Or, or, or put differently, it's where the pendulum sits in terms of do you err towards innovation or do you err towards more regulation? And it's not black or white, right? It's a spectrum. And I think we'll end up on one side or the other, depending on more who's at the agencies than who's in the White House. But obviously there's a direct connection between those. I mean, that said, we're going to do it.

What do you make of, there's an article here on The Hill, Harris-Trump fight for crypto voters as industry rises in Washington. So I was wrong here. I thought she would just never mention it because why? With all the important things she has to do and maybe we're more self-important in this echo chamber than we are in the actual real world.

But she's starting to talk about it. Now, she's been pretty careful, I think, to say digital assets and blockchain. She hasn't really, to my knowledge, said crypto or really spoken specifically. But she seems to at least trying to be, whether you believe it or not, showing that she's thawing and open to innovation.

I think most people, if you're not skeptical but um but they're talking about it so she she is she has now identified this as a meaningful enough issue in the in the election cycle that here we are you know 40 something days ahead and she's starting to talk about it. Yeah, yeah. I think she's sort of like a roast architect for crypto. You can see in those comments, whatever you want to see, it is positive that she's talking about it and talking with words like innovation. I think, you know,

I've been thinking a lot about what it means practically going into next year, if there were a Harris administration. I still think there are things we can count on. I think we can count on stablecoin legislation. I think that is a space that wins dramatically, regardless of who is in the office. I think we can count on more things like BNY Mellon moving into the crypto custody space. That seems like a done deal. I think those are probably the two. I have to ask you about that. I love it. I love the BNY Mellon. We had a long talk about it here, but SAB 121 obviously was vetoed. And now it seems like the exceptions are going to the incumbents

and maybe not to the industry. Like that could have been, I mean, it's great that BNY Mellon is going to be able to custody our assets, but I don't think those same exceptions are going to apply to crypto-native custodians. Scott, I'm shocked. I'm shocked that that would happen. It's stunning. It's amazing how that works, isn't it? Look, I agree with that yeah and i think crypto native firms will dominate the custody space i actually think that's true i still think it's good that they're coming into the space right i still want them involved i want blackrock involved i want fidelity involved i want them all involved i actually think the winners will still be crypto native custodians majority

for at least the foreseeable future. So you're right to point that out. But still, it's a win for the industry. Right. Still, it's a step forward. I think it's a it's a huge win for the industry. I just I want to get rid of all this lawsuits and regulation by enforcement and all the nonsense that we've seen. And I hope if she wins, you know, like there's this consensus nonsense that we've seen and i hope if she wins you know like there's this consensus that you can't win or something i think the industry has

to be realistic that you need to be talking to both sides because totally if she wins the last thing we want is like just a contentious relationship continuing and hatred and yeah i mean i i'm pretty confident that no matter how you look at it, we're in a much better place than you would have imagined six to 12 months ago. And so the needle is moving in the right direction. Yeah, I think that's exactly right. I also think further that there are some things that are just stuck and silly and everyone recognizes they're silly and all you need is a change to unstick them. I think stable coins are a good example. I think custody is a good example. I think custody is a good example.

I bet in-kind is another example. I think there are some things that are obvious to both sides that they need to be solved. And the change, whatever happens, will give us an excuse to solve those. So I would count on those. And then anything we get on top of that is great. I interviewed Jeremy Allaire at Token 2049, obviously the CEO of Circle. And I kind of asked him the hard questions about this. I said, listen, we're going to get to he said we're getting stable coin legislation. Same thing as you. It's like it's the lowest hanging fruit. You could view it as talking his book. But listen, that's the easiest thing to your point. Right. It's going to happen. But I said, you know, are you concerned at all that they just say, listen, stable coins can only be issued by these five banks in the United States because they're trusted and all of our incumbents get eliminated. He didn't really think that was on

the... He thought we're safe. But some of the initial proposals were, it has to be issued by a regulated bank. Yeah. I don't know that we're fully safe from that. I admire him for thinking we're safe and I hope that we're safe, and I hope there's room for innovation. But that's the kind of thing where who's in charge and how the Congress splits, that's the kind of thing where that decision may matter. And look, the banking industry has a big lobby. We talk about crypto's lobby being significant.

It's not like the banking industry is a pipsqueak on the lobbying front. So I think that's very much in play. Yeah, I know I need to let you go momentarily. I just want to say this. In that context, I mean, when you're looking at the two parties, I think there would be more of a fear, obviously, with a Harris win that Tether would be disallowed in the United States, Right. But then, you know, that yeah, sure, you'll be able to have stable coins are going to be issued by banks, but we're not doing foreign stable coins. But then you look on the other side. And with Trump, Howard Lutnick, the CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald, is literally on his transition team and they're the ones custodying

Tether. This is just another one of those obvious like Trump's not going to say they're unregistered securities if he's issuing them. He's not going to say Tether is banned in the United States. Listen, I'm not saying he has all the power, if literally the guy on his transition team is the biggest Tether bull in the United States. That's probably true. Look, I think broadly speaking on stable coins, they hold a lot of treasuries i don't think they want to shut that down in general so i think stable coins are going to be all right but i definitely hear what you say but you know more than any of that um there are just so many catalysts lining up for the end of the year the election is just one of them china rate cuts etc it's it's shaping up pretty good all right right, man. Well, I know you're,

you've got work to do and things. Thank you so much for tuning in from Europe and maintaining my bullishness and helping me to confirm my echo chamber. It's what I need. I need, I need to get pumped up by people I trust, but I do really think things are looking good, man. So any, anything I missed? We're good. No, I think that was it. Appreciate coming on. We'll see you in October. Guys, please follow Matt. Literally, just do it. It's right down in the description. Thanks, man. Talk to you when the markets double.

You know, next week. Sounds good. Bye. Like I said, we do not have chart guys. Dan here today. You might remember there was a time on this channel, the YouTube slash Scott Melker, when I started and my newsletter,

when all I did was charts. All of my shows were simply me sitting here making jokes about one inch. I saw the founder of one inch again in Singapore, by the way, and once again made a one inch dick joke right to his face, because it's what I do. And we had chartapalooza. And I would go here and I would show you all the things. And then if you look at the video we posted on Monday, the untold stories of crypto's biggest something or other. And I wrote about it in my newsletter today. There was a time when I got basically canceled by crypto Twitter. And it was mostly for just being a complete bullish retard at the top.

And everybody loves you on the way up, but they hate you when things go bad. And I got bigger. And I just got to the point where it was like, it's not really worth talking about trading, even if I'm doing it to any great degree. But you will notice that over the past six months, I said, listen, it's just not the time to talk about altcoins. And if you do trade and if you do participate in this market, it's important to remember that when you're a trader, there's not just buy and sell or long and short. There's also do nothing and sit on your hands and be out of the market. And I think I've been pretty vocal for the last three years, but especially the last six months, it was time to sit on your hands and do nothing. Now, listen, my opinion is only an opinion. Nothing I say is financial advice. I have no idea what's going to happen with the market. But with the same conviction in March that I tweeted at the very top when everybody was angry

and said we were going to the moon, that everything was overbought. We had bearish divergence across the board. Meme coin casino was going crazy and we had topped and it was going to be a very boring six to eight months. I said it very vocally here. And now you don't force it through the kind of bearish cycles. And you got the other channels, 1000X, 1000X, Altcoin Gem, Next, Memecoin to pop off. I don't do that, obviously. And I can't. I just can't. Right? But if I'm taking a look now across the board, it's time. Maybe I'm wrong. We're right at resistance on Bitcoin. We can talk about that, but it's kind of becoming time. And so let's take a look at some charts. That was the long-winded way of saying, I'm going to show you a bunch of

charts right now on this channel, standing here by myself, the way that I used to. I haven't even looked at them. We're going to just go through a bunch, but I know what they look like because when the market starts to move, they all kind of look the same. Take a look at Bitcoin. I said this with Chris Inks yesterday. 200 MA here on the daily is this red line. I think that's the sort of main resistance right now. But right now, what we want, need, have to see to really get bullish is this. We got to get above this level at 65,000. And the reason is, the reason for that is very clear. We've had a bearish cycle, which is normal consolidation. Nothing strange here. High, low, lower, high, lower, low, lower, high, lower, low, lower, high, lower, low, right down to 50,000. Well, right here, you have a higher low when we just dropped to 52,000 at the beginning of the month, right? But you do not confirm a higher low without making a higher high.

We need to break this high. Once that happens, you have a new bullish structure of low, high, higher, low, higher, high. You need two of each. That is how you get bullish structure. So yes, we are being a bit bull-tarded at resistance right now for Bitcoin. Got to break above that before massive bull run could be closer than you think. But that said, guys, listen, I'm not a big fan of charting things that are not tradable like Bitcoin dominance and such. This is total three. I showed it yesterday. Crypto total market cap, excluding Bitcoin and ETH is a weekly chart. It's breaking out. There's nothing else to say here. You have the 50MA up, 200MA up, bullish cross of the 50 and 200MA and a potential breakout here.

Guys, the market cap of everything minus Bitcoin and Ethereum is sitting right now at 622 billion. It was 1.13 trillion at the top of the 21 cycle. And we have 10 times as many altcoins now as we did adding to that market cap. So this is probably down 80%. Probably down 80%. So if altcoins are breaking out right now, finally, it could become the season where you start to throw darts at something that hasn't moved and hope that it moves. Do I think that necessarily we're going to get it where every single coin pulls 100x? No, because I think there's so much supply coming on the market, so many things. But I got a little playlist here. These are layer ones. I'm going to show you what I'm seeing

across the board, right? FTM has obviously moved massively already. It was at 25 cents. It's at 71. But this is just a list. I didn't make this list today. This is just a list of layer ones I have that's sorted by percentage change. So it's moved the most in the last on the daily chart. But you guys know I use Trading Alpha. You're going to see that on Trading Alpha, there's these big green, gray for me, arrows everywhere after squeezes. The track lines are moving up. These coins are above the track lines. All the things that have been reasons to stay out of the market before are reasons to get in. You have on these altcoins, the structure I was talking about, look, high, low, lower high, lower low, all the way in. You have on these altcoins, the structure I was talking about, look, high,

low, lower high, lower low, all the way down. These have made that higher high, right? You had the low high, higher low. Once you broke 53 cents here, for example, on Phantom, which I own, you already have ended that downtrend. And you've broken these lines and you've got the dots and we're starting to make new highs right now. Now, listen, this could put in bearish divergence. Maybe this is like when we start to get the retracements for the retest. But what I'm saying now is you can look at buying dips, right? I mean, look at this near. I haven't looked at this. Have I looked at this? No. Okay. Let's zoom out on near. Same thing. And this is just happening on this one. I'm looking at these for the first time, guys. It's happening over the last three

days. Here is your structure changing. Higher, high. It happened right there. And I guarantee we can easily draw a descending line right now that will show you this exact same thing is breaking out. See that? All the altcoin charts look the same, guys. Beta. Don't know. Don't care. What are you? You were the darling of previous cycles. Let's draw a line.

Right here. Breaking out. Trading alpha says it's good. Right here. Right now. Today. Trying to make that higher high. Right there, $1.48. So this one's only, listen, if this breaks, this is your, actually, this one looks like an opportunity

as we're speaking, right? If it holds above, you have low, high, higher, low, higher, high. Guys, I'm looking at these for the first time, okay? AVAX, there's your higher high. Same thing, same chart, every single one, Same chart. Do I need to show you? Oh, there. Look. See? See? You see it? Breaking out, right? Let me pull this line. Let me pull that line a little farther. I'm in the glitch there at AVAX. Whatever. So if we pull this further, you see it? Guys, these are the big tokens. They're moving. Cardano. I mean, I'm not even going to draw the lines. Same thing. Adam, across the board, dot. You want something that looks like it could fly? I actually put this in the newsletter the other day, and I don't even ever put altcoins

in. Look at this. It's right there. This one could be breaking out right now. And you have low, high, high or low. So this one, you got to break out that you can play here or above $5.10. Say, however the fuck you pronounce this. I don't know. Do you guys like this? Is this good? Is there anyone left who cares about my charts? Because we don't do it anymore.

There. Say. Aptos, draw the line, bottomed, made a new high right there, 764. Not only that, they're making new highs and some of them are coming back to retest perfectly. I mean, can you literally like Aptos, literally, literally, literally, as Dave Weisberger would say, you have a breakout of resistance for a new high and a perfect retest. These charts look incredible. Solana's injective breaking flow. I don't even know what that top shot like. Is this really a thing still?

I mean, suey guys, if you were following the website, which we're redoing at the moment. I posted this at the bull flag. Look at this suey bull flag. Target 218. I posted this at the bull flag. Look at this suede bull flag, target 218. I posted this when it was 96 cents. It's $1.68. That was like two weeks ago. I mean, this is bananas. These charts look insane and you can't ignore it. This isn't like stupid bull posting. This is me taking a look at charts objectively and showing you what there is to be seen. And they just look good, man. They look good across the board. So listen, if you have a favorite altcoin, a reason that you love something fundamentally, it's a good time to

maybe start stacking. It can all go bad. But I't get like super bull across the board very often and maybe that's a signal that the top is in here for a little while looks good it looks good and i just showed you like 30 charts that look the same right they're all have bottom signals they're all breaking out they're all getting the trading alpha signal. I mean, it just looks really good to me across the board. Listen, as you know, the alpha is there. I don't ever, I've stopped wanting to be the guy that's like, do this, trade this, whatever. But I'd feel a little more comfortable being that guy in the market as it's starting to look right now. So I think you can start to have a lot

more confidence. I mean, this total chart, man, I haven't even looked at dominance, but I bet the dominance is starting to look like it could fall off a cliff. The problem is if Bitcoin makes a new all-time high and goes up, alts are going to get temporarily wrecked versus Bitcoin. But man, I'm looking at this Bitcoin dominance chart. Yeah, it's making highs, but dude, that is a terrifying ascending wedge. So all this has to do is come down here and break a little support and we come back down to the 40s and holy shit, even if we just come back down to the high 40s, guys, altcoins will go absolutely nuts. I'm sorry, Bitcoin maxis. Listen, I'm not saying that these are digital gold or that they're going to replace the world financial system. I'm saying that if you like altcoins or you're here to trade or you're here specifically to make money, or even if you're here to stack Bitcoin, this might be one of those rare moments where you can take a very solid look at altcoins and have a

high conviction that they're going to appreciate. Even if that's a 60, 70% chance, this is like poker, guys. You go all in with aces, you lose sometimes, but you still go all in with aces. Feels like the banana's up and not the flat banana anymore. All right, guys, that's all I can yes, built 800K followers charting decides to pivot to interviews. Well, the problem is, and if you watch the interview that I did, and cold plunge every day and you start posting inspirational quotes by great philosophers because that shit's easier than getting canceled again because you posted some charts so yeah is what it is it is what it is i enjoy the interviews more anyways anyways guys that's all i got for you today i'll be on twitter spaces in 30 minutes and back here of course tomorrow for the friday Friday 5 with Nathaniel Whittemore.

Should we do more charts in the future again? Should we not do more charts? You guys, I got more charts from James here. Green Day giving me a thumbs up. Brian's got nuts. One inch jokes for days. Yeah, that's what we got, guys.

I will talk to you in the very soon-ish future.