The Wolf Of All Streets - Nvidia Skyrockets | Bitcoin Bounces, But Bear Risks Are Still High | Next Crypto Boom Not To Miss!

Episode Date: August 24, 2023

David Duong, Head of Institutional Research at Coinbase, and Charting Man Dan are joining my show to discuss what's happening in the stocks and crypto.  David Duong: https://twitter.com/Dav1dDuong Charting Man Dan: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCnqZ2hx679DqRi6khRUNw2g ►►MELD MELD will bring to bear the full power of decentralized financial instruments to the masses. Banks are at the heart of the economy, MELD will become a new set of banking tools that are by the people and for the people. 👉 https://bit.ly/meld-early-access  ►►OKX Sign up for an OKX Trading Account then deposit & trade to unlock mystery box rewards of up to $60,000!  👉 https://www.okx.com/join/SCOTTMELKER  ►►THE DAILY CLOSE BRAND NEW NEWSLETTER! INSTITUTIONAL GRADE INDICATORS AND DATA DELIVERED DIRECTLY TO YOUR INBOX, EVERY DAY AT THE DAILY CLOSE. TRADE LIKE THE BIG BOYS. 👉 https://www.thedailyclose.io/   ►►NORD VPN  GET EXCLUSIVE NORDVPN DEAL - 40% DISCOUNT! IT’S RISK-FREE WITH NORD’S 30-DAY MONEY-BACK GUARANTEE. PROTECT YOUR PRIVACY! 👉 https://nordvpn.com/WolfOfAllStreets   ►►COINROUTES TRADE SPOT & DERIVATIVES ACROSS CEFI AND DEFI USING YOUR OWN ACCOUNTS WITH THIS ADVANCED ALGORITHMIC PLATFORM. SAVE TONS OF MONEY ON TRADING FEES LIKE THE PROS! 👉 http://bit.ly/3ZXeYKd  ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEK DAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/   Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://twitter.com/scottmelker   Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.io   Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe   Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c   #Bitcoin #Crypto #trading  0:00 Intro 2:30 NVIDIA 8:00 What will happen to crypto? 10:50 We are in the consolidation stage 15:00 The catalyst to look for 18:10 GBTC 19:10 Jackson Hole: more dovish 22:35 Next tech boom 27:30 Crypto Vs. AI 30:10 Nvidia 32:20 Nasdaq 33:30 Bitcoin bounces, but the risks are still high 37:00 DXY 39:20 Nvidia dump 41:00 Nasdaq 42:30 Wrap up The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

Yesterday was the Super Bowl of earnings with NVIDIA reporting and absolutely crushing. I don't think I've ever seen so much suspense going into a single company's earnings. And that's because that single company has effectively carried the stock market up for the past few months and seems like it may continue to do so up almost 10% after hours today. What will that mean for crypto? Last time we saw the AI hype really kick in, we saw a ton of coins that are either related or say they're related to AI pumping all over the crypto market. Will that happen again? Also, we have Jackson Hole tomorrow. The Fed will be announcing the itinerary today after hours, and then we'll get Jerome Powell jawboning tomorrow

about the economy. There's a lot going on that could have effects on the crypto market. I'm going to be talking with David Young from Coinbase today. And of course, Dan from ChartGuys at the end of the show to look at the market from a technical perspective. We should be getting both the fundamentals and the technicals today as usual. You guys don't want to miss this one. Let's go. What's up, everybody? I'm Scott Melker, also known as the Wolf of Wall Street. Before we get started, please subscribe to the channel and hit that like button. Yeah, yesterday we talked about how DeFi was broken and DeFi was dead and it was sort of a very negative thing. And you could tell in the listening because a lot less people show up when we, I don't know, I don't know how I'll call it, tell the truth. But when we take a more negative

stance on things, it works a lot better when you say in the title, this is exactly why Bitcoin will be $7 million next week and you will be a rich person on a yacht. That's the kind of title you need if you want to get tens of thousands of views. But I think we kind of threaded the needle today with a more realistic title. What does this NVIDIA news mean for the market and what does it mean in general for crypto? I'm going to bring on someone way smarter than myself, who we've had many times. David, who's in the office today. You are not at home. I'm not professional. I know, like compared to my usual, you know, I'm going to say. Yeah, I really like it. So let's talk first about NVIDIA. That's what we've got in the title.

I kind of referred to it as the Super Bowl of earnings. Yesterday, it seemed like for the first time on a single company, everybody was really holding their breath to see what happened. We had people that thought, oh, there's no way they hit these targets. And then they just crushed, like way overshot basically on everything and then announced a massive buyback program basically saying, yeah, and we're willing to buy at these prices. Right. So, A, I mean, what does this mean for the market? But B, does this mean that the AI bubble continues? Yeah, I mean, markets were expecting

already fairly lofty numbers around like eleven billion dollars and they just like overshot with thirteen and a half billion. I mean, that's, that's nuts. I will say that I was one of those folks who was more on the skeptical side about what they could actually deliver because expectations were so high. But I will say that this was probably one of the most anticipated earnings reports, probably in the last 10 years, you know, and the fact that they could actually deliver on this, I think it's a very strong kind of outlook for the macro scenario, as well as what's going on for stocks in general. Yeah, just like I'm kind of scanning through the articles that we pulled up over here is

crazy. I mean, now the CEO is worth 46 billion at the peak here. Not bad for like a year or two of really accelerating growth, right? And this really is on the back of, largely on the back of open AI and chat GPT, right? I mean, it's record high AI demand, all the things that are going to come. I don't think we've ever seen a situation where a single stock rises. Well, I'm sure we have, but this hard just on a completely new emerging entity, maybe Tesla with electric cars before there was competition. But to that point, Tesla had this major boom and then everybody started making electric cars

and we've seen largely downside for Tesla. Can't NVIDIA now, I mean, it's not like they're going to be the only people who are going to be making chips or focusing on AI from here. I mean, to me, this feels like it's great news, but they can't dominate forever. Well, they can't dominate forever, but at the same time, it's not something they can easily pivot into. So I think that for right now, at least, they do have dominance in

the AI chip making market, which is why they can kind of publish the guidance. So it's not just the revenue that they put out, but it's the guidance as well. Like we saw that back in May, like, you know, the guidance that when they did then was just kind of nuts. And now this time around, they're saying, yeah, you know, $16 billion plus minus 2%.

I mean, like the market was already expecting something closer to 12 and a half. So the fact that they're not only putting out this big number in terms of the revenue earned, but like this one expected, I mean, like it's not, it's not impossible. They could actually make good on some of these projections. You know, if they blow it out of the park again, I don't think investors would actually be that, that surprised. Yeah. I don't think so. I mean, you look at this chart and it's just absurd. I mean, you go back to the beginning of the year, this trading $135. It topped here like 482,

which a lot of people were calling double top. Yeah, wrong. And now it's up 506 pre-market. I mean, all time highs. This is, I mean, I think the inclination then is for everybody to get negative and say, oh, you got to short this. But I think you're right. I think that maybe it's just that good of a company. It's one of those true unicorns. And it's not just NVIDIA as well. I think that there was a lot riding on NVIDIA's earnings for the entire US stock market. And we've been kind of already creeping into that so far. I've been more on the defensive side, but even now I'm kind of coming out of this saying, actually, the market's not at the worst spot it could be in. I think that you kind of mentioned at the top of the hour that we're going to get Jackson Hole.

A lot of people are expecting it to be hawkish. I think those expectations have kind of shifted too far to the other side. We come out with something fairly dovish. And if that happens in concert with these earnings, that's not a bad place to be for the stock market. I don't know if you saw this on the video, Wall Street's last analyst with a sell on the video gives in. So literally like the last company, the last analyst that was saying, yeah, this thing might be a sell or was even leaning neutral, basically capitulated.

That's not usually a good thing when consensus is all in one direction. I don't know. Having worked on Wall Street for a very long time and actually worked besides a lot of those analysts, I was in research, but I was on the macro side. It's not that I find the opinions not trustworthy, but certainly there's a lot of convergence. So I'm actually a lot more cautious when I read all of those analyst statements. And sometimes you see that dissenting voice. And they also we call it trying to be a hero on Wall Street, you know, like guys who want to make a name for themselves. You do that not by following the crowd, but by kind of setting yourself apart.

But it's kind of what you were saying before. Like you make money by saying like, oh, yeah, like X is going to a million. You don't make money when you're like this is the realistic scenario for what could actually happen under X, Y and Z conditions. So, you know, there's people who are trying to in more conventional terms do the former of of being very boisterous about a certain forecast instead of being more realistic about it. Yeah. So what does this mean for crypto, right? I mean, we always try to kind of search for connections and such. Like I said at the beginning, I mean, it says, where will the money flow in crypto? I wasn't necessarily implying that like a bunch of Nvidia people are going to sell their shares so that they can buy Render, right? But what we saw

each time we've seen these sort of big conformational booms in AI, we've seen money move into the AI sort of adjacent crypto project. Do you think that that's something that we could see here today? Or do you think that we've sort of seen the movement already on the AI side of crypto? So there's two things going on, which make it a lot more complicated than saying it's, you know, the connection between tech stocks and crypto. It tends to move in tandem with each other. The truth is that since the AI news

have kind of really broke since like November of last year, when ChatGPT 3.5 kind of really took off, is that we saw some of these flows diverted away from crypto, honestly, because AI represents a also, you know, frontier technology that, you know, if you have a finite amount of capital, you're not necessarily able to put it into both places. Sometimes you're chasing one versus the other. So in some places we have seen that people are putting equal amounts into AI and crypto. But we've also seen that in large part that a lot of people have kind of said, well, this is the new thing right now. And I can kind of see the productive benefits of AI. So this is where I can allocate my money at the moment and unfortunately not put that into crypto. Yeah, I mean, that's not just retail or even traders. I mean, that's a VC, right? We've seen so far we have these conversations

even on Twitter spaces with these huge crypto VCs, guys that have been crypto native and that's all they've invested in. And every single one of them is like, well, we've kind of pivoted to AI, right? And they're not talking about crypto AI, they're talking about AI, right? Like totally out of the crypto market to the side. So I think you're right. And I can't really blame them. It's nothing against crypto. But I think if you've been in this industry a long time, there's been the promise of these things that are going to be delivered and are going to happen. And each cycle, maybe we advance the ball a bit, but we haven't still seen that sort of, we certainly haven't seen a chat GPT moment unless you're just counting the creation of Bitcoin, which I think fairly you can, right? But I'm talking about for advancing beyond sort of the promise of Bitcoin,

we just haven't seen the traction here. So, I mean, chat GPT happened in it seemingly overnight. Yeah, you really need to take a more holistic view of what's going on, not just in our asset class and not just in cryptocurrencies, but across multiple asset classes. And you can kind of see that fundraising has been tough. I mean, even for fundraising for AI, for example, on the VC front, it dropped around 28% in the first quarter of this year, you know, like, and this is a new market that has a lot of interest in it. And still, you saw that there was a decline in VC money. So it's not as if like, it's been easy for any sector, but private equity, for example, like a lot of, you know, endowments, pension funds, they've had their fill, honestly, of a lot of those assets.

You saw headlines recently that some of the big names in private equity are trying to offload some of their portfolios, for example. I think that we are in a consolidation phase for not just, you know, one asset class, but multiple asset classes. But we're probably coming to the tail end of that you know this is why i've been on the more defensive side thinking that positioning already has you know looked just you know like bears have gotten liquidated or they kind of got rid of their shorts for example longs a lot of things were overvalued we're kind of coming towards the tail end of that period where like all this stuff is getting washed out um and i think the position is going to be a lot cleaner as we kind of get into Q4. Yeah, I mean, I've been defensive too. A few weeks ago, I did a whole show saying I was kind of selling all of my stock positions or the

bulk of them, not everything, not my investments, but the things I had sort of bought during the dip. I had bought meta at like 230 on the way down at 200 MA and then at 100. Well, I sold that at 314. Right. But now I look at these charts and what I thought was looking like a top is starting to look like they might just be bull flags for continuation on the way up. So I don't have my regrets ever taking profit. But like you said, I kind of felt like we were really topping and now I'm not so sure. So are you still remaining defensive here? Are you potentially ready to pivot as well? Well, you got to keep in mind, like my position is tactical, you know, like it's really based on what I see in terms of

the technicals of the situation, the positioning where supply and demand is more so than the fundamentals themselves. But yeah, a lot of the headlines that we've gotten very recently with regards to what's happening in China, for example, what's been happening with the long end of the US treasury curve. I think that all these things are impacting markets, but I think they're more exposed justifications for what's been happening because the demand hasn't been there.

Part of that's the summer and part of that's because, like I said, you know, a lot of these things aren't attractive as far as valuations are concerned, but they're starting to get there. I mean, even like something like crypto, for example, like with the washout we got last week, you know, Bitcoin under these levels, you know, it's starting to become a lot more attractive than it was when it was closer to 28 or 30. Yeah. I mean, obviously, you're at Coinbase, you're the head of institutional research. Have any of your conversations, I know you can't be specific, but have any of them, do they change with price? Like when price goes from, you know, 30 to 25, do you all of a sudden have to have

these conversations reassuring people that maybe, you know, things aren't that bad? Does the research change? Or effectively, like you said, is this like, if you're in, you'd much rather, you know, if you liked it at 30, you should love it at 25, right? Price is always a factor no matter the asset class. Let's be honest here. You know, like if something's trading at like a lower valuation, all of you got all of a sudden, you have to say to say like, oh boy, like was my rationale correct? But you're right. You know, like if you liked it at 30, you should like it at 25. The problem with this is that a lot of us, you know, we all suffer these behavioral biases of, oh boy, like I'm not as certain about this anymore. Like I'm a lot more nervous here. Of course you're going to be a lot more nervous. The market just kind of dropped 15%.

Like, if you're not nervous, you're not human, to be quite honest with you. But if you were rational about it and you said, well, actually, I don't see any major negative catalysts over the next period of time. If anything, there could be

the possibility of getting a positive development as far as an ETF or a gray scale case or whatever. Like, I think that if you're looking at it from that perspective, actually, like these might be this might be an opportunity to pick up something cheaper than you would have previously gotten it. And let's talk about that.

Let's talk about Catalyst, because I think a lot of people have been somewhat scared off by the fact that we went from 25 to 31 on Bitcoin on the BlackRock ETF application, right? Which in my mind says the market was pricing in approval more than even just the application. Now, naturally, we haven't seen that yet. Here we are back at 25. Ripple, I mean, poor Ripple holders. You wait what's seemingly a lifetime for a win against the SEC. Price absolutely pumps and then returns to those levels where it started from and even sub those levels. So when we have seen these positive catalysts of late, they've been very, very short lived as far as the price action and results. So what does a GBTC, a grayscale win

against the SEC mean? What would a ETF approval, although I don't think we're getting that imminently, what would that mean? What sort of catalyst approval, although I don't think we're getting that imminently, what would that mean? What sort of catalyst can we look for now that might actually be lasting? Yeah, there's a lot with that because I think number one, just because I think, A, like if you saw Bloomberg Intelligence, you know, they're saying that there's 70% odds that Grayscale is going to come out with a favorable ruling in their case against the SEC. And, you know, they think that you're going to hear about that sometime towards the end of September. But the truth of the matter is we don't know what that outcome could be. I mean, like it could come out and they could be a favorable ruling for Grayscale, but it doesn't

mean that the SEC gives up and says, oh, well, now we're forced to prove an ETF. No, they could actually say, actually, instead of going to this three person panel, we're going to appeal and go to the entire U.S. District Court of Appeals in Washington, D.C. and say that, like, you guys need to reassess this decision. Or they can say, actually, you know, fine. The court believes that we've been capricious, quote unquote, in terms of the way we've approached this. But maybe we won't be as capricious when we come up with a new rationale behind why we won't approve an ETF. I mean, anything could happen on this, which is why we've seen some of that, you know,

GBTC discount kind of stagnate around this 25 percent level. It's been it's tough because you really need to know the outcome at this point before you can kind of come to a realization of like what's happening. Meanwhile, we're getting this approval in Europe of like the first spot Bitcoin ETF, which which happened months ago, but finally got done by Jacobi as management. But, you know, the thing about this is like for a lot of non-U.S. ETFs or closed end funds like GBDC or futures based ETFs, they're just a lot more expensive. They're not very accessible. They're less liquid. And it's you know, it's not what some of the U.S. based ETFs are hoping to offer. You know, like I think that oftentimes people miss why the big gains could actually happen if the approval gets done in the U.S. because then you start seeing this in portfolio inclusion. There's a potential benchmark status that can actually happen from this. That's the big unlock here. Yeah, I agree with all of that. And I think your points about GBTC are well said because I can't imagine that the SEC is just

sitting here waiting for a decision without prepping for a loss. Right. So like, yes, maybe we get the narrative that they see the loss as finally they say, OK, we're just going to throw a bone and give a spot Bitcoin ETF. But more than likely, when I sort of think through it in my head, they've already got another better reason to argue against an ETF lined up for if they lose. Yeah. And, you know, to be fair, I don't think this is the only thing that Gary Gensler is focusing on. You know, we've seen some headlines recently about him taking on, you know, some of the hedge funds and other things for completely unrelated to cryptocurrencies completely. But I mean, like he's already facing dissension within the board of commissioners, you know. So this is just another another thing that he has to worry about on his list of list of concerns.

I mean, if you had to take a guess as to what Powell is going to hint at in the next day, I mean, I think it's going to be still hawkish. Personally, I have no idea, but I think stocks are still really high. He wants those low labor market is still really strong. He needs people to lose their jobs. I mean, maybe he's looking at other metrics like, you know, weakness and housing and long term rates and stuff. But I still don't see a reason for the Fed to sort of stop. Right. He over and over and over says inflation is too high. Inflation is too high. Yes and no. So, OK, I'm going to get super nerdy here for a second, probably more nerdy than your investors will, some of your viewers will want. But inside of the market, what a lot of investors, institutional investors talk about is that they're concerned Powell is going to talk about a higher R squared. A higher R squared means like a long term neutral policy rate. Where does the monetary policy rate need to be in order to sustain 2% inflation, for example? There's a lot of increasing concerns around that. Honestly, I think that that's overblown. Number one, you have to understand the history of Powell. Like if you go back like two years, three years

ago, for example, like Powell has previously discussed the idea of an R squared and he hates it, by the way. He does not like talking about the R squared. He actually has been very skeptical that it's actually meaningful at all in terms of how it dictates a short term monetary policymaking. So I actually think the risks for Jackson Hole are skewed more to the dovish side, quite honestly. I think that he's been, you know, yes, you're right. He's talked about, you know, financial conditions, needing to tighten.

But you've also seen that him, Williams, Harker, they've all been talking about how they should be more dovish in 2024, despite the FOMC minutes. You've got to pay attention to like the leading indicators, not the lagging indicators. By the time we get the minutes, it's kind of worthless to be honest with you.

It's not really, it doesn't really inform how he's gonna sound here. So he's not a huge fan of R squared. The neutral rate meanwhile, yeah, it keeps rising, falling during like secular, you know, rising during expansion, falling during secular stagnation. I don't think it's much of a helpful construct to decide what's going to happen in the short run. But what you said about the labor market, I think that's what's important. The labor market, I think a lot of people look at the absolute numbers that are like, well, it's still

going strong. Is it though? No, when you dig in, and you've got to imagine they dig in, but it is the headline. Headline is, you know, unemployment, historic lows, et cetera, et cetera. Absolutely. But there was a story in the Wall Street Journal very recently where they're saying, like, new entrants into this market, like new employees, they're getting hired at way lower pay. were paid. So if you look at the wage growth numbers published by BLS, Bureau of Labor Statistics, it's saying, oh, well, we're still growing and it's decent numbers. But if you actually look at the real numbers in terms of what companies are actually doing, they're not paying people the same amounts they were paying like six months ago, even. Six months ago, you come into a new job and you're like, wow, I'm getting paid way more than I would have.

And I saw the numbers in 2022. Now you're kind of coming in. You're like, why? Why? You know, like, why is the pay disparity like so much lower? This is starting to have an effect. Yeah. So when you dig in, it's not as rosy as it seems, obviously.

I know we only got a couple more minutes, but I want to talk about your thoughts on upcoming tech themes for the rest of the year. Because we've sort of had this AI boom. We obviously have talked about all the catalysts we could get in crypto. You guys sent me a list. Account abstraction, fully homomorphic encryption, distributed validator technology. This is our squared level. Right. These are tough concepts, but what do you think are going to be the themes maybe where people would want to start paying attention, where we could see sort of booms following in markets or certain companies and coins even? Yeah, these are all more crypto specific themes.

And, you know, we don't usually talk beforehand about, you know, what we're going to talk about on the show. But you asked for a list and I was like, this is the stuff that's been on my mind, you know, in terms of themes that I think are going to be important for crypto. Account abstraction being a huge one. Vitalik talked about it during ECC, for example. That's just a way to actually improve the user experience, quite honestly, because the way it works right now, you know, if you have a MetaMask or Coinbase wallet, for example, that's typically called an externally owned account, which means that you have to manage everything, right? You have to sign the transactions. You've got to manage everything. And if anything goes wrong, like if you accidentally sign something, like someone tried to scam me the other day and they're like, click this thing to approve your sign. I'm like, clearly this is wrong. but you're on the hook if anything happens account abstraction would actually make every wallet effectively a smart contract so that someone could do it on your behalf now why is that a good thing well it's it's good thing because if

you ever lose your private key someone could recall it for you but more importantly if you are someone who let's say like which i'm going into crypto for the first time. And I'm like, well, I need some ETH in my wallet to actually transact anything. How do I get that? How do I get by that ETH if I can't even get like, you know, if I have nothing zero in my account and I have a wallet for the first time, this actually happened to me. Like I remember when I first got into crypto, a friend of mine was like, oh, I'll send you some USDC.

And I was like, okay. And then they're like, I was like, well, I want to, you know play around with uh uniswap and i'm like that but i need eth to kind of to do and he's like all right like i gotta send you some eth in order you know like there's it's not easy once you start doing it it's like oh yeah it was fine but like if you're a newcomer like account abstraction would remove all of that. It wouldn't be an obstacle anymore because basically things could be so cheap, especially after, you know, the Cancun fork that perhaps, you know, you could just be like as your decentralized application. I'll pay for it. You know, you just use it and I'll pay for all of the transaction fees, everything. So that's why account abstraction is so meaningful. It would change the user experience totally. And then fully homework encryption. I mean, I know I'm running out of time. You know,

it's just, you know, it's going to enhance privacy because effectively you don't need to actually run stuff on unencrypted data anymore. You could actually just have the data remain encrypted. You don't have to decrypt it first and then use it. You just remain encrypted and you can do things with it. I mean, that's the beauty of homework encryption. And that's been around for forever, but we're finally putting into place. Yeah, we haven't seen it actually being used in any mainstream way or in mass. So, yeah, exactly. And then I think distributed validated technology is just going to be important for staking

and staking services because, you know, I think it's, you know, I do it. But like for a lot of people, it's tough to run your own validator. And this is one way where you can actually have several node operators just split up a validator's private key and actually just take on the duties and responsibilities among a group of people

rather than doing it yourself. And I think that's going to make things easier. Love it. Thank you so much. I know you're actually at work today, so we have to let you go so you can do work. You were pretending all the other times. I am usually. Yeah. You know, I noticed that you commented on the background because you hate my normal background. I do, too. Oh, I like it. I just seen it's seen it so many times. It's nice to, you know, get a different view. I've got plants over here. I mean, it's way nicer. Mine's just purple. It never changes. So I, my, I have no room to talk at all for sure. You know, first time I came on the show, I thought that you were going to project something on the background and then you never did. And I was just like, oh, cool.

All right. Yeah. Moon doge, doge dogs on rockets going to the moon with Bitcoin based logos. That's what we were going to do. But we were told by corporate that it wasn't allowed. Sorry. Love it. Thank you, David, man. Always a pleasure. Speak to you soon.

All right. Thanks, Scott. Awesome. Really great perspective there. Certainly on the fundamental side. I still, maybe Jerome will be dovish. Maybe he will. I don't know.

I just, maybe I'm emotionally attached to his hawk he will. I don't know. Maybe I'm emotionally attached to his hawkishness. I can't get over it. It happens every single time, no matter what. Now I'm going to go ahead and bring on Dan, and we're going to actually look at the charts and see what he's thinking. That NVIDIA move, no joke, man. Yeah, the conversation you two just had, it's really a sentiment barometer for markets as a whole, in my opinion. So that was definitely a win for the 10 or 20 years and now I'm set. And so that was crypto and now it's AI. And so that does take

away some of the capital that would be allocated to crypto. So competition to a certain degree, but as far as the broader market as a whole, you want to see NVIDIA doing well. So people have confidence in this potential of new AI space, but also, you know, you see NVIDIA doing well so people have confidence in this potential of new AI space. But also, you see NVIDIA's earnings reaction. It pulls up the NASDAQ. That's pulling up Tesla and Microsoft. Everything. Yeah, it's a big, its tentacles are all intertwined.

Right, but shouldn't we be cautious that a single company has that much sway over what's happening in the market right now? I mean, there's obviously a lot of sort of bears screaming from the mountaintops that if NVIDIA goes bad, it's bad everywhere. Or even the fact that it's just a few companies that have really sustained this entire rally to the upside. But I mean, does that matter? It's worth being aware of. And honestly, I'm astounded at the amount of volatility that that Nvidia has for its market cap. You just don't see that. You know, you see things that have this market cap and it's, you know, Apple with its market makers entrenched on both sides. And it's very, you know, contained to a certain degree. And then this comes along and it's moving like entire massive companies market caps in a day.

And it's just like, what is going on here? And that for me is part of the new world of trading with all these bots and algos and everything that just are going wild. And it is something to be a bit concerned over, but it also was the narrative in the spring. The narrative was, it's these three or these five companies that are leading to the market. And then from May, June, July, we saw all the other laggard sectors play catch up. And so that was the S&P 500 positioned really well. If anybody else goes bullish and then a lot of other sectors did go bullish. So that's kind of a standpoint I'm at right now in the short term over the next two weeks. Can the financial sector finally get a

bounce going? Because the S&P 500 is positioned well if some other sectors can join the NASDAQ. Yeah, I'm just kind of scanning through some charts right now. Obviously, I have a video and I just kind of circled it. You talk about the large market cap. You don't usually see a 30% overnight gap jump on one of the largest market cap stocks in the world, right? I remember I was just trying, then I was looking while you were talking, Meta's had a couple of them too, but down, right? I mean, Meta went from 323 to 244 overnight.

These are the biggest stocks in the world. So, I mean, is this just a new paradigm that we're seeing stocks this large be able to make altcoin type overnight moves? Or are these just sort of outliers? Because it is a bit scary that these huge moves on these huge market cap are such a large percentage of the market as a whole that they do affect everything. Yeah, I do. I like to say this isn't your grandpappy stock market. And it's definitely a new paradigm, in my opinion. And honestly, it's a point in favor of establishing some initiative as an individual to be able to learn markets to a certain degree, to be able to manage this.

Because buying and holding is a strategy that has worked for decades, and we know that. But you also weren't seeing these insane swings. And so being able to have a bit of knowledge to try and take advantage of this to a certain degree, even if it's just a partial percentage of a long-term portfolio, I think that's really empowering and really important. And now we've got the internet where you can learn how to do anything you want. And so you go back to the financial institutions wanting you to think this is complex, so you need a financial advisor, when in reality, it's not. The information is complex. So you need a financial advisor when in reality,

it's not. The information is there. If you've got the time and you can put it in, you can definitely learn how to do this on your own to a certain degree. How are you? So with, I know it's not necessarily on your radar for your plan, but so we had NVIDIA last night, we have Jackson Hole tomorrow. What are you looking at throughout the rest of this week? How are you positioning? How are you trading it? I mean, do you have anything on the charts? Yeah. Perfect. So as far as looking at the NASDAQ, and then we'll compare that to where Bitcoin stands. So I need a daily uptrend. This is a very significant bounce off the fear low from last week. Very solid. But we're going to top out here, whether it's now or in the short term. And we need to

confirm that daily uptrend. That's the next checkmark for what the bulls need to see, probably into next week, because we've got to pull back for a couple of days if we're going to be able to pivot for that higher low. So that's something that I'm watching for in the short term. And then really the big one for September, there's two paths forward. It's a monthly cup and handle for the NASDAQ as a possibility, as you were mentioning, potentially some bull flags looking like they're shaping up, or it is the bears going to confirm a weekly downtrend. And if the weekly downtrend confirms in September, for me, that's a more convincing, this is a four month timeframe now, but it's a

more convincing failure at the all time high and shaping up for a tightening range into 2024. And so those paths, those two paths are just so different. And I think we're going to get a ton of information in September to determine probabilities of which of those two paths we're heading down. Right. Everybody wants an answer today on daily charts and you're looking at four month charts to give us the likely trends coming out, which is why I love having you here because it really gives a lot of perspective to zoom out. I mean, what do you think that this all means likely for Bitcoin? So the Bitcoin bounce right now is not entirely impressive. We finally got a bounce. So that's

a win, but it is still a potential bear flag on the daily at this point. And anytime you see a bounce like this, you got to remind yourself, okay, we had crushed RSI levels. We were extreme oversold, but that has now cooled off and we can absolutely see another leg down. So we really need to see, I keep tying back the dollar and the NASDAQ to the overlying picture of crypto. And just touching on the dollar again, I've been watching these trend lines on the 12-hour chart for weeks. And it's just like, just give me a break. Okay, it's incredible how they're tightening up there. Yeah, I'm sick of this chart.

Just give me a bull break or a bear break. But if you're a crypto bull, you really want to see this break bearish or a stock bull or a metals bull. And the dollar bulls are just resilient here still. And so we can say, well, it's a good thing that gold, silver, and crypto has all bounced over the last few days while the dollar is remaining strong, but we have to see the dollar roll over to try and help these bounces follow through. And so just some levels on Bitcoin for me, if we're going to negate this bear flag, looking at retracement sizes, I need to see these bulls get up over 27,000, ideally to 27,500 to see a 50% bounce retracement because that then opens up the door for the trend change attempt. And if we don't get over 27, then the bear flag is definitely still on the table.

And obviously, the two paths that I just laid out for the NASDAQ, sentiment-wise and correlation-wise, are going to have a significant impact on Bitcoin. And if we get the bear scenario in the NASDAQ, I feel Bitcoin's heading down to the low 20s, pending, of course, any kind of ETF headline that would change those correlations very quickly. But that would be the bearish scenario. And if the NASDAQ can get an all-time high, then Bitcoin can try and salvage this and head back up to the low 30s to try and keep this, you know, fear bottom back in 2022. Keep that bottom in and keep higher highs coming. But I think so much is going to depend on the NASDAQ into the end of this year as far as bigger picture with so many of these moving parts. Yeah, I mean, I'm looking at the weekly on Bitcoin right now. I mean, for me, you got to love this perfect bounce off that 25 to 14. That was

sort of the macro higher high right here. This candle really broke the bear trend of those lower highs and lower lows. And then you get this perfect retest and then potentially this candle with a slightly higher low that looks like a reversal, but being below the 200 MA again, this is only the second time in history for anyone who doesn't know. The first time was here, 3AC. It stayed down there a while. It's amazing actually when you zoom back on the 200 MA on Bitcoin Weekly, it's just never traded for more than a week below it. So hopefully we get the similar kind of bounce back above it here. I just can't get too bearish above that 25 ish level but man if we break that it starts to look a lot uglier yeah and even if we hold this support for a couple of weeks and

get that bounce going uh then we got to be cautious of this head and shoulders you know if we can't get back up to 31 you know if we confirm the the bear break after a bounce you know it's the same thing just takes a little bit longer to get there. So there are definitely concerns at this point in crypto. And again, just have to have an established game plan for both of those scenarios. That's really the point I'm trying to drive home to everybody is there's such two diverging paths forward for the NASDAQ into the end of the year and into next year. And you just don't want to get blindsided by either. Just be open to either being a possibility. You can have a bias in one direction or the other, but just have a game plan for if either starts playing out and have an invalidation point, a clearly defined

invalidation point where you say, I'm wrong if this happens. Yeah. I'm looking at that dollar chart that you brought up before i mean the head and shoulders didn't really play out but it does look like we could just be i mean not yet but unless we get above this kind of 104.67 we're at 103.83 now this could just be another lower high yeah at a sequence that's what everybody literally wants to see at this point i think i've been watching for it for the past two weeks and it's just it's's taken a while for that to shape up, but you know, you look back and say, well, there have been significant four or five week bounces in the past that then resulted in giving it all back. So that would be best case scenario. You know, if that were to happen, that would be the NASDAQ cup and handle kind of

scenario likely playing out if the dollar were to give this move back, which is why, you know, watching when we do see this consolidation finally start, does the dollar were to give this move back, which is why watching when we do see this consolidation finally start, does the dollar confirm the weekly uptrend? If it does, that's likely the NASDAQ confirming the weekly downtrend. So when I'm looking at crypto, I'm looking at the NASDAQ, Bitcoin, and the dollar as far as the three major components as to help me analyze what I think are the most probable scenarios. Are you all at all concerned about Jackson Hole tomorrow, about Powell speaking? Or even a better question, do you just kind of sit on the sidelines during these weird, volatile, fundamental events and wait to see what happens? That's kind of my approach. I don't really care what they say. I

just don't want to be there for it. Yeah. I mean, definitely with most of my positions, I grabbed some Tesla on that gap down last week and I'm trying to let that ride longer term, sitting my stop down, break even. So I'll sit in those positions, but definitely a lot of cash heading into the unknown, the FOMC events and things like that, cash to wait and get a little bit of clarity rather than gamble. I have no edge going into those events as a trader. So I want to tell myself that and not gamble. And if I am going to gamble, ensure that I have at least a bit of an edge. So we'll patiently be waiting to see. But even if it is a bearish reaction, that will just be the NASDAQ getting that daily consolidation. And if the bulls

can recover from a bearish reaction, that would be the daily uptrend that we need to see confirm if this bounce is going to get any follow through. Yeah, I'm looking at videos dumping kind of hard after the open, I guess, no big surprise with that big gap. But if this left the gap and had a bearish candle, doesn't it look the inverse of what you just bought on Tesla? I mean, is this a you know, is this kind of become a short with the gap up and bearish candle and then on the way down? I mean, my gut instinct would have been, I didn't trade it, but would have been this morning to short at the open because at least you come down and fill this gap, but only to like 480, right? Yeah. And this is deja vu right here.

This is the one minute timeframe and this is exactly what happened on the last gap up. Okay. So let's go one minute timeframe, big dump candle, little lower highs, and then a new low of the day. And if you go back a couple of days ago, we had a gap up open another big one. And it was literally the same thing where you have the one minute drop, the little lower high and lower low. So in a general, gap ups are for profit taking, certainly not for longing. And so this is not surprising. It's just going to be a question of how much do we give back? And really, once the initial wave of profit taking subsides, do the bears confirm an hourly downtrend, which would tell us that this is

daily consolidation shaping up and not just the short-term profit takers locking in that big win? Yeah. I mean, I think you have a very clearly defined support in my eyes of what you want to see nvidia hold if you're in it i mean that's that 480 that was the high in july and then kind of revisited it before this gap up but no surprises here i haven't even looked then i've got to imagine that if this is dropping qqq is probably dropping yeah definitely a little bit right at the 50 MA SPX. Rejected. I don't know, man. These are all hitting the 50 MA at the exact spot on the daily right now.

Oh, yeah. We might see a lot of profit taking here. We're definitely due for temporary tops on these bounces. I mean, we've been bouncing the last four or five days. And it looked, you know, you look at the daily candles on the NASDAQ from two days ago, and it looked like that was going to be the lower high there into, you know, continued downtrend. So the fact that we got another leg up is definitely gives the bulls cushion to work with. Again, it's all about that trend change. And if this is the top of this

bounce, you got to watch the retracement side. If we get back more than 50% of this bounce, that's a red flag. If we get back less than that keeps the door open for the possibility of that trend change. So definitely going to be watching closely into next week, whether the NASDAQ bulls are able to confirm this daily uptrend or not. Anything else you're looking at at the moment that I might've missed? No, I mean, it's really the dollar, Bitcoin and the NASDAQ as far as key for September. Watch that weekly timeframe on the NASDAQ because if the bears confirm the first weekly downtrend in many, many months, you'll see the short-term bullish sentiment in the last couple of days and the video earnings.

You'll see that evaporate pretty quickly if the weekly downtrend confirms. Absolutely. I appreciate it. We did it for 15 minutes today. It was concise to the point. Everybody got the alpha they needed and they can go save 10 minutes of their day. It's perfect. But thank you, man. Everybody, guys, as always, please follow Dan, follow Charka. Look at his channel, watch his videos because you just got a 15 minute sample here each week or 20 minutes, but, uh, there's a lot more on his channel. So it's worth watching and he, and he gets far deeper in the weeds. Something, as I've said before, I go to look to sort of, uh, confirm or, or, uh, get another perspective on my own views. Uh, very, very helpful. Wow. And video is almost down to that four 80 level right now. Not a surprise. All

right, man. Thank you so much. Appreciate it. And I'll see you next week. Absolutely. The video is almost down to that four 80 level right now. Not a surprise. All right, man. Thank you so much. Appreciate it. And I'll see you next week. Absolutely. Thanks Scott. Hey guys, please go follow David there.

Go follow Dan. Both of them are, are tagged below David from a coin base. Finally got a Twitter account. He was like, not on Twitter. It was always awkward when I tried to tweet to him and then just put his name with no at,

but a lot of great perspective here. I think people are going to be holding their breath as they do all the time into the Jackson Hole meeting tomorrow. It's probably not going to matter in about a week and whatever. These days, challenging to figure out things to talk about. Oh, tomorrow, we're going to have NLW, Nathaniel Whittemore. Obviously, we were doing David Lynn on Friday. It's been really, really early in the morning for him,

so we're trying to figure that out. But Nathaniel Whittemore is going to be joining, who's one of my absolute favorite podcasters. That's the only other podcast I've said I listen to, NLW, The Breakdown. Basically, every morning, because you get like a 10 to 15-minute perspective on what matters each day. And that's it.

And you can move on with your life. Put that shit on two X. It's like seven minutes of your day, you know? So we're going to have him and we're going to be working on each Friday, doing the top five stories of the week and what signal and what's noise and trying to give you guys the goal here. As we evolve with the channel here through the bear market,

you've probably seen some changes, some more the way we talk to guests, you know, more direct. But I'm getting a bit frustrated with, and this happens on Spaces, on YouTube, everywhere, with just how much noise there is in this market, right? And I've been guilty of it where we just kind of have these, you know these winding conversations, which I think are very entertaining and very good. But a lot of it is very forgettable on my channel and others a day later. And so what I'm trying to do as we progress, it'll take a long time, is to really distill that noise down and find the signal in it, to find the alpha. I don't want to tell you guys what to trade or how it's going to go. I'm not going to be the guy who's going to say like, you know, this coin is going from here to here tomorrow, book it. You know, that's not my style, obviously,

but finding out which of these stories, which of these metrics, which of these things might have any sort of lasting effect, as opposed to just presenting a whole bunch of noise that's forgettable by tomorrow. So it's going to be a work in progress to do that. It's challenging, but that is sort of the new mandate of the channel, what we're going to be trying to do. So hopefully we will be able to accomplish that. So I'll see you guys tomorrow with NLW. Can't wait to get that rolling.