The Wolf Of All Streets - October Crypto Pump! | 9 ETH ETFs To Launch Today? | Crypto Town Hall

Episode Date: October 2, 2023

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Scott are you there? Let's kick it off. I don't really want to focus on the markets today and there's a comment you put in the group like October kicked off with a pump. So again I'm horrible at price predictions etc so maybe you can give us a quick overview on what you mean by that. If there's you know if what do you take out of it is it bullish for the month? Maybe go to the rest of the panel. I mean, October, obviously, it's historically sort of the beginning of a good month. We talked about how September was likely to be bad. That did end up being the case.

And then we talked about how October can be, quote unquote, October, which has become a bit of a meme and perhaps a self-fulfilling prophecy. But if you look back in past years, this is not really a crazy thing to see happening. Nothing really happened in 2022, if I recall. But 2021, I remember, you know, literally the clock struck October 1st, the calendar changed and Bitcoin went from 43,000 to 48,000 in a day. The year before

that, I think it had a 7% or 10% move right on October 1st. And then this year, October 1st, obviously, we're seeing this move up. Really encouraging, I think, to see Bitcoin holding that 25,000 level so clearly as support and now attacking that 28,500, 600 level that Gareth and I had ran, we've all spoken about many times. I mean, it's my view right now, there's basically two ranges that Bitcoin's likely to trade in for quite a while. And that's that 25 to 28,500 and then 28,500 to 31,000. So if we can bump up into that next range, I think it's very encouraging. But I think it's more encouraging to see that we know that Bitcoin has become historically uncorrelated to stocks over the past 12 months going from basically a 0.8 correlation,

the closer to one is more correlated, all the way down to like 0.07, I think, last time I just saw it. And that was before we just saw, you know, the dollar ripping today, yields ripping today, stocks likely to feel pressure and Bitcoin shrugging it off and sort of rising up to $28,600. So, you know, $28,500 area. So I think there's just a lot to be encouraged about that we're seeing this move right now in this environment. All right, Rand. I just want to say I was right and ben cowan was wrong for a change dominance is still rising though yeah dominance is rising but but in the beginning of september he said the bitcoin was going to close down to 20 i said not a chance bitcoin's

going up so i mean this is one of the rare times that i'm right and he's wrong so just let me have the moment you gotta celebrate it let me you gotta take take it. I can see the sun shining on your head right now, a little extra cloud parting, kind of like the Lion King. Yeah. Go ahead, Noel. I think markets are designed to do the opposite of what everybody's thinking. And everybody called September down really, really, really badly. And here we are at the end of September.

Maria, if I could jump in with something, pulling on what Scott was saying there. And by the way, hi, everybody. Great to be here with you. I do have to hop off for a minute. Apologies for that. But I do want to say that one big thing that the move that we saw over the weekend and we are continuing to see today.

Your mic, Noelle, your mic is um i think it's wind or or echo not echoes it's just under your shirt actually i have the window open because it's a gorgeous day here i will fix that can't be done so much for this weather right um yeah the game on and off the big thing that we're that the move signals is that there is some investor interest we've seen sharp moves up often, generally, and especially given the timing yesterday, it looks like it was probably a short squeeze. And we've seen a lot of those.

We've always seen the crypto market correct after them, sometimes right away, sometimes gradually, but it always has come back to its previous level. Not this time. This time, one of the rare occasions I've seen it continue to go up at an increasing slope as well. That does signal new interest is continuing to come in. And that signal is what we have been waiting for to bring in more liquidity, to entice the market makers back into the market.

When they come back into the market, liquidity will go up and that will entice new investor interest, which will entice more liquidity, which will entice new investor interest which will entice more liquidity which will entice new investor interest and so on and so on but this is what we've been waiting for their macro headwinds still they could still come down but this is kind of the mood switch we've been waiting for yeah no well nothing nothing makes prices go higher than higher prices right absolutely especially in crypto where price is the best PR tool the ecosystem has, unfortunately, but it does work that way. Noel, I'll just let you know, I didn't interrupt you,

but the mic is still the same, so I'm not sure if it could be fixed. But the question I have for you, Scott, and then we'll go to Gareth, but we're seeing this, you talked about Dominus going up. So does that mean like altcoins are lagging? Yeah, it's the same sort of scenario where people get confused. They say, hey, altcoinsus going up so so does that mean like altcoins are lagging yeah it's the same sort of scenario where people get confused they say hey all coins are going up but then you look at

bitcoin and bitcoin's up more so that theoretically the bitcoin value of your portfolio is dropping even though the usd value is rising so like if it's up four percent alter up one percent in usd but they're down against bitcoin it's this continued trend of wanting to be in Bitcoin in this part of the cycle and to avoid altcoins. But the thing is, listen, that requires impeccable timing to get back into them. I think everything is depressed when you look at what's likely

for the next three or four years. So that's more of a trading mentality than something you need to, I think, be looking at as an investor interested in getting into this asset class. Before going to Gareth, I you on mute go ahead ryan not saying that i mean i i covered on my show i said it's in this kind of asset class which has been moving up only for the last 11 years or whatever the number is i mean i saw a tweet by charlie belillo which said Bitcoin's up 9 million percent in the last

12 years since 2011. In this kind of asset class, I'd rather be bullish and wrong on my timing than be bearish and wrong because if I'm bullish, you know, I buy it now and my work case now is I'll end up holding it for an extra six months, but I'm bullish enough to say

that the trend continues to go up. If I'm trying to time the market because I'm a short and bear, I think the risk for me is just too high. So I'd rather just focus on the bullish. And maybe I'll be wrong by two months, maybe I'll be wrong by three months, maybe I'll be wrong by six months. But ultimately, I don't really care because my holding period is way longer than that. Kari? long enough. Karrie? Yeah, so thank you guys. So yeah, there's no doubt about it that short-term Bitcoin has flipped more on the bullish side. We saw

that last Thursday. There was a close on Thursday. We closed on Bitcoin just above $27,000 and that was above a key trendline, right? So short-term trendline broken. Price has spiked. There was a pivot high going back to August 29th, which is kind of right around this 28-2-ish level where we're just chopping around. But I still think there's a chance that we could head up to close to $29,000 and potentially retest $30,000 in this little bit of a move. any correlation with, you know, the the can being kicked down the road by the US government, and then McCarthy, potentially getting voted out, which which could bring on even more tumultuous kind of, you know, chaos in Washington, which ultimately leads to chaos in the financial system.

And Bitcoin just again, keeps plugging away. So short term, no doubt about it, it is positive. And then, Ryan, I want to just go back to a question on what you said something a while ago a raging bull market look at what we're seeing now um and and what we saw in september wasn't as bad as many people um expected um does that does that kind of kind of reaffirm your position of we are in a raging market similar to what singapore and the east saying so i mean again like i don again, like I covered on my show today, I said, you know, I think we're in the beginning part of a Bitcoin bull market.

Maybe we're not at the raging part just yet. I think the beginning of the year was certainly the raging bull market went up over 80% this year, which is a big number, even by Bitcoin standards. I definitely think we're in a bull market. I agree with a tweet that I actually saw by Rekt Capital. And again, I covered on the show today, but he says we're 25% in a bull market. I agree with a tweet that I actually saw by Rekt Capital. And again, I covered it on the show today, but he says we're 25% into the bull market.

And, you know, if you think about how bull markets are structured, beginning is slowly, slowly, slowly until everybody buys into it. And when everybody starts buying into it, the end becomes the blow off top or the quickly, quickly, quickly. And so I think where we're at is, you know, I kind of agree that we may be 25% to the bull market, and the other 75 is to come. And I think the last the most returns will come in the last 25%. Well, I think our bull markets are all of seven or eight months in the entire

four year cycle, and we haven't even started the bull market yet. I think we're in a bullish trend and broke the bear market. But I think that the true Bitcoin bull markets come, I mean, historically, it doesn't mean a repeat, but six or seven months after the halving. Right? I mean, that's when you get the parabolic. I think that this is a crab market or a sideways market. But I think it's hard to say that this is 25% into the next bull market. Scott, I want to ask a question about your interview with Hasib that I listened to a couple of times. And he made a good argument that the halving is just a silly myth. And he thinks that bull market will start next year in a year or so. And then he said, people will probably link it to the halving, but it has nothing to do with the halving. Do you agree with this? Or has the halving become a self-fulfilling prophecy? I just keep listening

to different perspectives on this. Yeah, he called it astrology for men, I think, when we were having that conversation and sort of laughed at it. To me, it's a, if it ain't broke, don't try to fix it scenario. Listen, we only have two historical examples really to even look at. Yes, there's been three, but you know, there's an asset class was so small in the beginning, that it is hard to define this as a trend. But I do think there's an element of self fulfilling prophecy that will play out. And it is a true reduction in new supply. I mean, if there is equivalent or even less than half lower demand, prices should rise after that. It's hard to determine whether that will happen again. But yeah, I mean, even looking at the macro, the election cycle, all the things are sort of lining up for next year. It does make a lot of sense, at least to have a thesis that we could see that repeat. I would be very surprised to see Bitcoin trading in the 50s and 60s, you know, in the next six months or a year. Anything can happen, certainly.

But once again, I mean, we've gone from 25 to 28, and we're extremely excited. We're not even close to 31 yet, which is, you know, where we'll start talking about even recent highs. Jason? Hey, guys. I was just going to jump in on the the bull market topic um i guess it's just more like clarity of where people define a bull market in my trading the bull market starts from the low and ends at the exact top just so that you have some measurable parameters that so that you can then go and do back testing on. But we can divide the bull market into different sections.

And this, I see it as like the first stage, which I think Scott said was more like a crab market. So you could say, well, this is the first stage of the bull market. Or accumulation. Accumulation. You know, like if you look at Wyckoff, you call it accumulation, which, yeah. Yeah, yeah. That's a good way to look at it as well. So like the first stage.

Whereas I think what a lot of people, at least retail look at as the bull market is when things are super exciting, but that's typically the end. And we've seen in previous cycles that usually lasts about 12 to 13 months. Some might call it seven months or shorter, but you sort of see that last approximately 13 months,

at least in the last two times, where Bitcoin really does start to explode and then it gets covered in the news and that sort of stuff. So, I typically look at that part as the retail bull market and basically where everyone gets burnt because they've come in late. And I think Ram was saying that it's where the most gains are made. Maybe if you're looking at altcoins, that's the most gains. But if you look at it in terms of percentage, that last 12 months is actually the lowest percentage

because obviously we know in terms of maths, if you get in from the bottom. I think that's a fair assessment. I see what you're saying. When I say bull market, I mean, let's take it to the top, not until we break down below the line. And we know that what happens is you almost get like a parabolic shape where markets kind of start off slowly, slowly, slowly

as more people believe it. Eventually, at the last point, you get all the tourists climbing in because they think it's going to be their life-changing money. They land up losing the most money. Exactly. I think the way that I see it is if you hold the same thesis that I hold, then rather buy in early and be wrong for a little bit of time. As long as you're not playing on leverage, you're not paying funding

and all those things. But rather be wrong in terms of time and chill for another month or two months, three months, then try and buy it early. Then wait and get in late because you'll end up missing most of the market. The way that I said on the show today, I said there's two kinds of people in the room right now. There's those that are wondering about when they should get in and there's those that are starting to plan their exits. The question is, where do you want to be right

now? For me, I'm starting to be right now now for me i'm starting to plan when i'm leaving i'm starting to plan if we get another meme coin run if we get another nft run and you know it's one of those that for me is going to be the sign that it's time for me to exit so i'm starting to plan my exits my entries i'm in and you know maybe i'm wrong i've been in since since the bottom i've been in since like 17,000. I kind of started going all in. And it's been pretty public that I did that. And now for me, it's a case of planning my exit, not actually planning my entry.

There's still some people that are still planning their entry. I'd rather, hey, if you're getting in now and it goes back down to 23, if your long-term thesis is the same as everybody else's long-term thesis that's probably on this call, then what's the difference? So you'll wait an extra three months, but at least you're in the game. Yeah, I think I was getting caught in the semantics of defining bull market and not in the thesis that you're giving, which I 100% agree with. Yeah, I mean, bull market, everybody has a very different definition. It can be technical. It can be fundamental.

It can be time-based. And I do think we made a very clear bullish trend by getting above 25. And now having held that so strongly, I think that it's certainly a bullish trend. I think that this is definitely a good time to buy in the same way that Ran sort of said. And I've taken the same approach. So I don't want to give the impression I think we're in the depths of a bear market here. I think we're just getting ready for the next one and that you still have a lot of time definitely i think that's more yeah i mean i don't want to get into semantics either it's just mostly

about the you know is it a bull market or not and i know i had this conversation i think it was with coin bureau on on twitter um where they're saying that this is still a bear market and i was saying well it's the first stage of the bull market because if you still call it a bear market and i was saying well it's the first stage of the bull market because if you still call it a bear market not to get into semantics but it mostly comes back to that mindset where people like oh it's still a bear market prices are going to keep going down and people are still expecting a break of 22 or 20 000 or 15 000 and so they still think the market's going to go down and they're not setting themselves up so it's kind of like that mind game that is played with the words even though then you start to get into semantics and you know as traders we're just like i want some clear definitions

but nice and simple but in this market in this market it's better to be wrong on the bull side than it is to be wrong and that's ran that's true in any market in the history exactly by the way exactly that's not unique but specific not unique to crypto bears bears require impeccable timing and they're only right for a very short time yeah always and that's the same for the stock market obviously you know we've only saw that 10 months down in the stock market and now we've gone very close to getting back to new highs so you know i guess we can leave that for the macro talk but yeah that that low doesn't seem like it's going to get broken either on the s&p and markets are up which is all good for bitcoin as well with this macro cycle continuing up. And then going back to the semantics of recession calls, I mean,

that sort of stumped a lot of people last year and this year because the price just has not gone back down to previous lows. Didn't touch $3,500 again on the S&P. Didn't touch the banking crisis low at $3,800. It didn't even get back to the $4,000 level where it broke out in may with the u.s debt ceiling crisis you know we're still at 30 43 now with a high at 46 and so it's that same sort of pattern of the semantics of like we're getting to a recession a soft landing a hard landing a 2023 recession 2024 guys could it be but jason guys could we link the the move that we saw in the last couple of days to the government shutdown being averted could it just be as simple as that like the market reality markets they're pretty doesn't take much look at the look at the data that you've got there is data if you look at

when the candle happened the candle happened exactly exactly exactly in fact let me give you the exact minute of when when the btc candle happened. One second. So, okay, I'm looking at my time. So it was my time, 10 o'clock. It was a candle that went from 27165 to 28058. Now, what also happened at that time, the Bitcoin CME futures opened. So as soon as the Bitcoin CME futures opened,

the candle went up. Now, what that could tell you is that there were a lot of shorts and the shorts needed to be covered. And when the shorts needed to be covered, why would there be a lot of shorts? I guess there would have been a lot of shorts because people were expecting the government shutdown. And when the market, the CME market opened, we had a $1,000 candle. A $1,000 candle is indicative of like shorts closing all at once, you know, that kind of thing. And it happened exactly to coincide within two minutes of the CME futures opening. So, I mean, it's, you know, you want to attribute some of it

to potentially the US government shutdown. Yeah, I just think it's curious that then stocks are down today. Yields are way up. Dollar is way up. Stocks are down. Bitcoin up. So attaching it to macro, if you're going to make the argument that it's somehow correlated to the moves you would expect in tech stocks or SPX, of course, they're closed on the weekend. But, you know, it just,

it always feels a little bit like chasing price with a narrative when you just accept that. We have the same narrative that goes up every October 1st, right? Okay, great. If I could just jump in one quick little thing is there's also a possibility that has to do with yields, right? So we know yields are up again today. We're retesting those highs on the 10-year. And we know that in March of this year, as yields pushed up, we saw bank failures, bank runs potentially, and a lot of money has been pulled out of banks. And so the question you could also ask is, is this just the idea that the banking system in the US is being put under extreme stress and money is also heading over towards Bitcoin as a safety play. Do you think the banks could fail, Gareth? Do you think that the Treasury and the

Fed would allow the banks to fail? I think they've sent a pretty adamant sign to the market saying, look, we're not going to let depositors fail. Maybe equity holders will fail, but we're not going to let depositors lose their deposits. Yeah, I think as soon as they said depositors won't lose their deposits, that's going to make it so banks don't really fail. But the question is, is how many of these banks are like zombie banks, meaning that they're holding so much dead paper from the commercial real estate bubble that's crashing right now and from bonds going, you know, the rates going sky high is again, they may not be failed, but they probably are just zombie banks at this point.

I think it ultimately will come to fruition where something bigger happens. And again, that's just benefits Bitcoin in the longer term, no doubt about it. I want to hear Willem's thoughts on this. Yeah, I've got a specific question for you is, you know, looking at the Bloomberg headline on the front page, why is the US.S. recession still likely and coming soon? So let's get your thoughts more of a macro perspective, a general overview. And if you can touch on the decoupling we saw between crypto and equities, and Scott hinted at that, and whether that's something we should look into. Yeah, so to me, I still am not in the belief that the soft landing or no landing narrative is going to play out. Again, I think we're seeing strains in the economy, whether it's in the retail sector or it's in the consumer sector

with debt or anything like that. So I still think that we'll see a recession. But again, so far, the markets have stayed strong. And your thoughts on the crypto market and the move we saw in the last 48 hours? Yeah, it's a great move. Great technical move. Right here, we're testing this little area of resistance. I do think we can go as high as 30,000. The big level is going to be that level when we topped out around 31,700, 800. If we can take that out, then it's really gangbusters. I think you'll see a lot of power come on board. I do think that it was a kind of a tell last week when we saw all these ETFs getting denied again, or not getting denied, but at least pushed out that the Bitcoin market did not sell on that. And I think when you see negative news

that in the past has caused selling and it didn't cause selling, it kind of tells you that there's accumulation going on there and that you're likely going to see some sort of pop in the near term. I'm still a skeptic whether or not we really are now going to just rip higher and take out the recent highs or if we're going to eventually kind of roll over again. And your thoughts on the Ether futures getting approved and a bunch of them launching? I think they're launching today from what I read. Yeah, I don't think to me it's not a huge event. I mean, the futures, it's something that we've already seen in Bitcoin.

And so people are very, very used to it. I think the spot news is going to be the big one, since that's a brand new kind of thing that we haven't experienced yet. But yeah, I mean, I think anything that goes towards normalizing the crypto markets means that down the road, they become more accepted, which means more people invest and it ultimately helps crypto. And get your thoughts on the Chair Powell's roundtable discussion on, I think it's today, is it? Is it today or tomorrow? And what we could, you know, how important this is for the markets. And I was reading an article that the markets are just sitting there waiting, the bond yields are waiting on what Powell says. What do you expect him to say? And how important is it? How much of the hawkishness has been already priced in? Yeah, I think the big question is, and I think

he speaks at 11 o'clock today, 11 a.m. Eastern time. So actually not too long off from now, about 15 minutes. But I think the big thing is we've seen such a run in yields. And to me, whether we hear about it or not, this is putting immense pressure on the financial system here in the US. I mean, it's this rise in yields just even in the last week has been enormous for what the system can actually hold. So the question is, what does Jerome Powell know is going on behind the scenes that we're not aware of? And does he kind of try to talk yields into kind of calming down this rise right now? Or does he just say, forget about it, let it go, and let's see what breaks? I mean, again, I'm in the camp that he's reluctant to break anything because that's where things will get out of his control.

But he certainly has remained hawkish, and the markets do not like that, and yields continue to rise. Jordi, I want to go ahead and talk. Gareth, yeah, I was just going to jump in. Go to Willem. Yes. I'm curious what Gareth thinks happens if they start trying to play down yields and potentially

hint at not raising rates and try to bring the front down, which will work for the front. But do you think the back of the curve is going to play ball or maybe 10 years, 30 years starts to go a bit rogue and just doesn't come back down? And I think that's such a good question because I honestly don't know. And I think that's something that the Fed may not even know.

And are they playing with fire here where something can really go wrong? And we have, you know, we just don't have a short term, you know, financial stress, but an actual crisis that emerges out of this. And I think that's the bigger question.

And honestly, I don't think from Jerome Powell's statements in his last press conference after the last meeting, he kind of said he wasn't really sure. The Fed wasn't 100% sure what the outcome was going to be of all this. And that's honestly scary. I mean, if you're someone who is in the U.S. or even globally, you've got to be a little concerned that the Fed doesn't even know what the heck they're doing.

Willem, I know we tried to go to you earlier. Guy carried away. I would love to hear your thoughts on this. I think Willem was just speaking, no? No. Here's Willem. Oh know we tried to go to you earlier. Guy carried away. I would love to hear your thoughts on this. I think Willem was just speaking, no? No. Here's Willem. Oh, my bad. Sorry, Willem.

I thought you were speaking when Jordy was speaking. So I apologize. Sorry, guys. No problem, guys. Well, you know, I come from the precious metal space. For me, Bitcoin is digital gold. But when I look at the current market, we have had a very strong rally. We're still in a very strong rally for the US dollar.

I think the US dollar is topping out now. We could see a market top for the US dollar very soon. And I think after the dollar has stopped, we might see a trend change in the precious metal space, but also for Bitcoin. So Bitcoin will benefit from that change as well. And while I agree with everything which has been said, you know, the rising yields, we've never seen this before in a situation where we're so indebted, when this mountain of debt, something needs to give, something needs to break. And we've seen a break in March when the regional banks were seeing these outflows. And it will get very interesting in the next few weeks and actual few months. You made an interesting...

Go ahead, Mario. I was going to say, could we continue to see a banking contagion with the Fed not reversing course and continuing to be hawkish by the looks of it? Well, we of course know that all bank deposits are 100% guaranteed, more or less, in the US. But we see a strong outflow of deposits into money market funds because of the high yields there. But I think the contagion has been contained. But we know there's an awful amount of paper losses on the bank's balance sheet. So one day we need central bankers to get active to solve that crisis. And what's been very interesting, I've been asked by the OMVIV,

which is a monetary think tank in London, to write a piece about the possible gold revaluation to help the central bank balance sheet. So you can see the central banks are getting nervous and they need to fix their own balance sheet and they need to fix the balance sheet of the commercial banks. And I think that crisis is,

it might be the next crisis to be solved, but it can also play out a bit later, maybe next year or so. Sorry, Scott, one last question. So you're talking about the concern that you have. You talked about the bank balance sheet still having significant losses. You're talking about the duration risk that they face. Is that correct? Yeah, sure.

And the higher the yields go, the more paper losses they have on their bond portfolios. And this goes for almost every financial institution in the world, but especially the banks. But even the central banks balance sheets are seeing huge losses. So this has been a big topic for the Bundesbank in Germany. This has been a big topic here in Europe. Even the Swiss National Bank has used losses. And you shouldn't forget that the profits of the Swiss Central Bank were always needed and used to cover the budget deficits. So these topics aren't discussed a lot, but these are quite important topics which will make a few headlines in one or two years from now. Mario, really quick, Dave and I talk about this quite often. And we were talking about it literally

just this morning, but how the United States government, the Fed needs to control the long end of the yield curve. And they're obviously failing to do that. And I think that that's the risk Willem's speaking to here. I mean, Dave, you could probably speak about it more, but if we consider to see these long-term yields rage, we're going to have massive problems when all this debt needs to be refinanced. I mean, the higher it goes, the worse the situation gets with time. Dave?

Yeah, I mean... Maybe he's not. Can you guys not hear me? We can hear you. Go ahead, Dave. Sorry, I was just get into my office so i mean dave can you ask can you yeah yeah go ahead sorry yeah we can hear yeah i was just switching from one network to another uh let's just make sure that yeah that's why hold on. Bear with me. OK, so you guys can hear. Look, the reality is, is right now at where we are, interest debt service is approaching military, you know, in terms of one of the biggest components of the budget deficit, the outlays of the actual budget.

If it goes to seven percent, which would be normal historically, not extreme, it would be the biggest line item. It would more or less crowd out almost all discretionary spending. God forbid it goes to 8% and starts getting, you know, overreacting in the other direction. You're looking at literally an intractable problem. There have been a bunch of articles that have talked about the notion of a black hole and the event horizon. Because with 33 trillion in debt, it doesn't take a whole lot of interest rate rises before the Fed, before the government literally can't repay and is forced into some sort of, well, monetary inflationary outcome. And, you know, that is really, you know, the core crux of the problem here. And so

you really have to look at it that way and that's what they're trying to avoid because the alternative is to embrace instead of run away from being like japan who's managed to keep their long-term yields really low to finance crazy debt to gdp for decades and they're linking that to crypto if that trend continues um how do you expect uh bitcoin in the in the ecosystem to respond well i mean my thesis is bitcoin is in a classic not a not a random mario bull market but a classic bull market climbing a wall of worry. I think Bitcoin is literally a play on distrust in institutions and failure of institutions. That is the goal.

That is not the goal. That is literally what it represents, sound money. In a world where consumer debt has been up and to the right, government debt has been up and to the right, you look at every single chart. And so the answer is is that's sort of what you think but remember we always have to remember the size of the market is so small i mean literally dave but if dave if that's the case then why gold moving up why is gold at 1828 because my thesis I believe that over the next 50 years, Bitcoin will demonetize gold the same way gold demonetize silver. Yeah, I believe that too, for the next 50 years. We are where we are now. And if your theory is that people are starting to hedge a potential broken system, then surely the traditional hedge would enjoy some kind of momentum too.

And if you look at where the traditional hedge is, the traditional hedge is actually on the way down. No, it's a fair point. I mean, look, I think that really what we always have to forget, what we always forget is the size of the Bitcoin market is so small relative to what it could represent. It effectively, the market is pricing, you know, these moves as much as we like to look at them and they matter. You know, we're talking about moving from, you know, the high threes to, you know, maybe it's a small percentage, but the market is pricing at somewhere under 4% of a chance of becoming digital gold, of

demodernizing gold. And so a small move in that percentage is a large move in bitcoin price and so what about it's really there's just not a lot of supply because it's kind of like sitting there what about what about i mean here's a theory i mean again we just kind of force for theory into why crypto is going up and markets are going down but what about the fee that because the government didn't shut down we didn't lose time in terms of a potential ETF approval, and maybe we'll get the ETF approval sooner than we think. Is that realistic? They delayed them ahead of the potential shutdown.

Exactly. I mean, there's no shutdown. I think it's – I know, but I'm saying maybe it kicked them to January. Yeah, but I think RAND's – Well, no, they delayed them to say, Scott, they delayed them to say our next deadline is January. But, you know, maybe, again, I'm speculating, but what if, you know, they're actually just one month away

from giving us approval and it was going to be two months away because of the shutdown? I think it's possible, but yeah, I think that it's, I mean, I think that rationally, you could be right, but I think rationally it's more likely that they were going to delay regardless, wanted to make sure they delayed so they didn't get passively approved, and that we're just, they're just kicking the can further down the road. I will say, if you read anything from Eric Balchunas, he said that in this case that the SEC actually asked some of the people filing for more information on the plumbing and the basics about the, which we've never seen in the past, actually. We've always seen completely sort of passive delays without asking for any more information until it gets to time to approve,

and then they deny. And this time they are actually asking questions. So maybe it is slightly different this time. But my feeling is that Gensler is going to want to kick this can as far down the road as he can. But they're not going to be able to do that past January because ARK is going to need an answer in January. Yeah, okay. I do think... I mean, I'm watching the markets.

I'm watching the markets, and everything is looking like crypto should be collapsing at the moment. Like despite it, we got in, in the Dixie today is, I mean, that candle is a scary, scary candle. If you look at the gold price, the gold price down, if you look at, at, at actual markets, you've got the 10 year yield up 0.1%. If you look at the, the NASDAQ is, is, is flat ish now, but I mean, there's no reason at all why crypto should be defying this trend.

And yet here we are. Here's the reason. Here's the reason. It's the one I've always given. I have never believed, except for at short temporary moments, that Bitcoin and the crypto market are correlated to macro markets.

I've never changed my tune on that. And I've always kind of joked that we'll probably, in a year, look back. Regardless if you believe that crypto are correlated to the NASDAQ, whatever else, and for certain periods I have and certain periods I have been. But you can't deny that when Dixie gets stronger, Bitcoin should go down. I can't. I can't deny that. I don't disagree with you. I think that that's the common narrative. But I can deny that. Because if you look at the chart of the four year cycle, whether it's astrology or not, this is exactly where we should be in this part of that cycle, regardless of the macro and has been every time regardless of the macro. I'm not saying this is

or isn't the argument, but the four year cycle has repeated over and over and over again. And that's happened when rates are up when rates rates are down, when dollar's strong, when dollar's weak, right? And that's why I sort of joked that in a year, you could have fallen on your head, maybe price will be, you know, Bitcoin will be 45, 50,000 on its way up. And we'll look back and say, wow, we spent a lot of time talking about Fed and Powell and rates and the dollar and credit events, and none of it mattered because we're in the exact same spot in the four-year cycle as we always were maybe i'll be completely proven wrong but it's happened the last two times this could be the third it's not reacting to the dollar because it never really did it's just that we were in a bear market in the four-year cycle this time happened to be at

the same time as stocks were crashing going through a bear bear market. But if you ignored all of that, that's when crypto still should have been in the bear market. Let me change the question and join us. Go ahead, Jason. Just to Rand and Scott there, it doesn't necessarily have to be the exact day that it has to correspond to what the dollar is doing. Because if you look at when the dollar peaked out in September of 2022,

it took a while at that top for it to distribute before it broke down in November when Bitcoin bottomed. And then, you know, we know Bitcoin, that was the low of the cycle and Bitcoin's been up since that point. So maybe the dollar's topping out at the moment. I've got a pretty strong resistance level at around 107.2 being the 50% level there.

So in case it's doing a little bit of distribution here, which has been on a pretty strong run, that's maybe a sign that this little move's got a temporary end, not saying the end, but maybe a temporary end. Then that could be also, you know, if you wanted to put like a technical reason to it, then maybe there might be some weakness coming soon for the dollar and Bitcoin will start to shine again.

So Jason, let me ask you a question and geordie and others maybe geordie can go first actually um what do you expect for the rest of october and the rest of the year then rest of october are we talking bitcoin dollar stock markets real estate uh mainly bitcoin and crypto uh but you can also touch on the stock market the dollar uh bitcoin i think we'll probably see higher prices. I don't know if we're going to break out of this 32K zone just yet, but I'm definitely on the bullish side that this is probably a bit more upside here.

And potentially those lows have been tested. I'm waiting for $28,400 to get consolidation above that. And that's going to be my signal that the lows are probably in and we won't see under 25K yet 132k is broken yeah we're not seeing under under 25 and i've said all along for months and months months that we're not going to see under 20k and probably yeah and the cycle low is in um for the stock markets i suspect for the end of the year we're going to see higher prices again and i think we'll get very close to a new all-time high on the stock markets later this year or first half of 2024. And then for real estate, I mean, those things, Australia just recorded eight months up straight.

The US, which is what everyone's mostly interested in, I think it's up five months straight now. So, there's still a couple of good years left in the bull market, but there is going to be an almighty crash after that. I just think most people have got the timing wrong and they're expecting a crash in 2023. They're expecting it last year and they're expecting it next year. But I think… They've been expecting it. They've been expecting it every year for the past, what, since 2008?

Yes. There's one thing. Right now, where are Michael Burry's puts? Does anyone have the valuationaluation on on michael barry's uh puts you know what i don't think he was actually far off the top on that last round of them also it was extreme hyperbole the amount that people said he had in the puts when you actually broke it down yeah that was millions of dollars yeah but i mean i think people have got i think he actually there are people that are tracking this obviously with certain assumptions

i know they're on TikTok. I just don't know which account they are. They make certain assumptions. Like they make an assumption that he's holding and they make an assumption which expiry they bought, etc., etc. If someone in the audience actually has the data, let us know. Either DME, Mario, Scott. I'd love to know where those puts are. But more importantly, when is he going to get out?

Because that was his problem in 2005, right? He was trying to short the market all the way up. And I guess he was lucky that he was using other people's money. And one more question, Jason, that no one is going to care about other than me before we go to Jordi. It's because I'm selfish. Obviously, I'm from Australia and I have a business there and I care a lot about the economy.

I thought you were going to ask about NFTs. I thought you were going to ask about NFTs. I literally thought he was going to ask about NFTs. I didn't think you were from Australia. Yeah, Melbourne, man. How is the economy doing? Because obviously that impacts my business significantly because my team is like blaming low sales constantly on the economy.

I'm like, shut the hell up. It's the easiest excuse. Is the economy improving in Australia? But keep it brief because not many people give a shit yeah i'll just say yes everyone's looking for staff and if they're talking crap i don't think they're they're working hard enough okay cool all right i've got a call with them today then all right tell me about it cool uh jody your thoughts on the rest of october and the rest of the year yeah i mean i'm baffled by what Scott was talking about.

Yeah, can you hear me? I can hear you now. Yeah, so like he's saying there's no correlation between... Yeah, so if crypto doesn't have correlation, like Scott, do you think it's not a macro asset or on the way to be a macro asset? Or do you think it's just like a sort of like a meme? I think it will become much more highly...

I think it will obviously become much more highly correlated if we see a spot ETF approval and more institutional adoption. I just think that historically, if you zoom out on any meaningful timeframe and do the mathematical correlations are extremely low. And the only times that they were extremely high was when everything was crashing. And so people say, listen, it was extremely high and a risk off event makes sense. But if you just zoomed out and looked at the four year cycle, that's exactly what Bitcoin should have been doing at that time and has done at that point in the cycle every single

time. But I mean, if you look at the 10 year correlation to Bitcoin to stocks or their 15, you know, 12 year or the five year, even over a year, there's I mean, they're always, you know, point one or below, correlated i mean it's just factually true by any definition if you look at it like you get this anecdotal evidence that people look at and they freaked out and it's literally just not the case i listen i believe that if there's a match you know there might have been a there might have been a bitcoin ticker 12 years ago in 2010 and you know might have had a price but it's not the same asset might might have had

the same name but i agree that's why I said the cycle is different. But yeah. Yeah. I mean, it's equivalent to what we call Bitcoin now, which is Harry Potter, Obama, Shiba Inu Bitcoin. It's that size. It was that size back then, right? It was less than a billion. Now we're talking about something that if you're starting to be like...

It's still Bitcoin's what, 600 billion? It's nothing. Yeah. It's small, billion it's nothing yeah it's small but it's not it's not like irrelevant like there are billionaires in the world i'm not saying it's irrelevant i'm just saying that you can even just do the mathematical correlation right now i mean there's articles being written about it's sub 0.1 like there is no at this exact moment depending on the time frame there is no correlation between stocks and bitcoin there just isn't or the dollar or no inverse correlation between the dollar and Bitcoin

at this moment. And there's been way more times in history, whether back then or now, that it's been uncorrelated than it has been correlated. And it's seemingly the narrative always fixates on the correlation when it happens. But to me, that's a random walk in the park, correlated sometimes uncorrelated, you can't make the argument that it's a correlated asset when most of the time it isn't both mathematically and by just common sense and looking at it all right you know i would say right now that we haven't had a huge uh equity move you know it's been it's been relatively within range and i agree with you on something like i think that right now the thing that's driving the crypto market is you know it's probably like these uh etf games trying to get the timing right and then

there's a lot of money being bet on liquidations and who's going to liquidate ftx estate who's going to liquidate you know all these other uh kind of coins that have to get liquidated all the big funds are basically like trying to keep an eye on Genesis on galaxy and, you know, trying to figure out what the timing is. And I would say that what we're seeing today in the last few days is probably some people got offside trying to short too early thinking that we were just going to have a huge dump on the market of all these coins,

all these Solana coins. This is why Solana is pumped the hardest. And this is kind of like what shows my pieces is that people just kind of assume they're gonna quickly dump them and they wanted to front run it and now that it's obvious that they're going to take their time uh we just have a short squeeze that's what it looks like so you think do you think that a vegas casino is correlated to the stock market because what you're describing is the obvious casino that is crypto and that it's largely speculators 99 driven by traders and literally has nothing to do with what's happening in stocks. It's a bunch of traders, as you said,

I agree with you, that are speculating on what is likely to happen and short squeezes and long squeezes, whales moving price, and none of that has anything to do with the Fed. Fair enough. But of course, in 2008, when we had a global crisis, Las Vegas was deserted and buildings were just being left unfinished. Yeah, Vegas is the most crowded it's ever been right now. Right now, yeah, yeah. So it depends on the size of the macro. Ultimately, you know, I think if we have a huge stock market crash or a huge debt crisis, you know, there will be repercussions, right?

I agree. I think all correlations in those events, we all know in a risk off or credit event, all correlations very temporarily go to one. But my point is that that is a very small percentage of the time in Bitcoin's history. And that may well be a coincidence or not, that's happened at the correct part of the cycle for Bitcoin every single time so far. So it's hard to draw, I think, any dramatic conclusions when those correlations are temporary and timed kind of coincidentally. What do you call a temporary correlation, Scott? What do you call temporary? What do you call long-term? I mean, I think if

you're looking at true correlations, you have to be looking at six months yearly higher correlations than that. You can't look at a 15-day rolling correlation and make grand conclusions about it being a generally correlated macro asset. And it's just never correlated on the longer term timeframes. Yeah, I see David just jumped on. Guys, David, I want to get your thoughts on the discussion. And the last question I'm asking the panel before we go through the news of the week or the news of the day, sorry, and wrap up, is your expectations for today and for the rest of the, sorry, for this month and the rest of the year? You know, I was hoping for a government shutdown relative to Bitcoin. I was interested in seeing what would happen, if anything.

But now we don't have that. In terms of my target by year end, it was 50,000. I think I'll have to go ahead and be a little less optimistic. I think at the end of the year, I think, you know, I think September is generally a bad month. I think crypto weathered September relatively well, certainly vis-a-vis the overall markets. And, you know, from now until the end of the year, unless there is some major disruptive event, you know, I expect that, you know, it'll grind higher. You know, I think we're going to have to wait for the ETF probably until next year. Cool. I think that's it, Scott. I'll read that. Let me recap the news of the day as well. Just some, again, things that get ignored, but I think really interesting. Tomorrow, this week, I'm going to get John Reed Stark on stage because I want to discuss something he said and Bitcoin.com put out an article and the heading is Trump may change his crypto stance

dramatically. And I'll read out the first sentence, first paragraph. The SEC's former head of, so John Reed Stark, who is a former head of internet enforcement at the SEC and a regular guest here said that Trump's anti-crypto stance may change dramatically. So he further predicted that if a Republican is elected as the president, a Republican-appointed SEC chair would, at a minimum, approve a Bitcoin ETF and, quote, may even slow down considerably SEC crypto-related enforcement efforts, which John has talked about this on the stage, but I want to dig into it

further as the elections get near. I think it'll be a really interesting topic to discuss. Three other pieces of news. I'll talk about the most important one that, again, not many people are paying attention to, and everyone's talking about the government shutdown and the market improving, including us, and that Brazil has rolled out blockchain-based digital ID. They've talked about it before, and they started rolling it out already. So Brazilians will soon be using blockchain tech. It's more of a centralized blockchain.

They're not using a decentralized layer 1 or layer 2 that we all know. and get out already. So Brazilians will soon be using blockchain tech. It's more of a centralized blockchain. It's not, you know, they're not using a decentralized layer one or layer two that we all know, but still it's a step in the right direction for digital identity. So the government recently announced us on the positive note and it would be good to have,

who's the guest that was, I'm really bad with names, guys. Who's that? I get Vinny. It'd be great to have Vinny on this topic. On a negative note, Brazil is also working on a CBDC, which the article says, I'm going to read out from the article, which will allow a central authority.

And that's actually not from the article. That's the developer of the Brazilian CBDC says the following. The CBDC will allow a central authority to freeze funds or reduce balances. I love the audacity of just admitting that so openly. Two other pieces of news, something not too major, but just shows the sentiment on the East towards cryptos, that Coinbase has secured a payment license in Singapore, and that's after, who else secured one?

Blockchain.com did, Revolut did, and there's a whole bunch of applications, over 180 applications that are being reviewed by various crypto companies. So again, just shows the adoption in the East and regulators not acting the way the SEC is in the US. And lastly, something just for any projects and any marketers in crypto, the FCA, so the whatever federal authority in the UK, has already set expectations of a crypto marketing rule that's coming that's coming in effect in six days um so something to pay attention to is including projects that are based outside the uk that are advertising to uk customers or marketers as well because anyone who continues to promote crypto assets without following these rules

by the 8th of october may be committing a criminal offense punishable by an unlimited fine unlimited fine or up to two years imprisonment so you know you got to go through the the rules um and things like incentives like refer a friend bonuses i think get banned completely uh you've also got um uh sorry about the phone ringing you've also got uh oh you could hear the name fuck okay i've also got crypto marketing labeled with prominent so you have prominent risk warnings um and you must not inappropriately incentivize people to invest just a lot of rules to follow carlo have you looked into it further maybe you can give a bit of a bit more information on this no i was just going to circle and say

don't forget the biggest headline with respect to crypto and crime is the sbf trial is starting tomorrow in a manhattan federal court jury selection to begin tomorrow it's going to bring us a lot of content oh yeah sorry guys 60 minutes i didn't yeah yeah i'm literally tweeting about them right now um they're so so um my tweet is not about 60 the interview itself but it's you know how biden i tweeted about it a couple of days ago that Biden was criticizing Elon and X for misinformation. But then 60 Minutes just got community noted for saying just, you know, painting SBF in like a positive light and not as a fraudster. And community notes corrected 60 Minutes. I'm about to post about that, making fun of them. But also I posted that the producer or the writer of the big short said that SBF was looking into paying Trump $5 billion so he doesn't run for president. I don't know if that's legal.

I don't know if he would have actually – he didn't have – Wasn't that in the last cycle though? What a big loss of money that would have been he lost anyways. So $5 billion. Yeah, sorry. Mario, can I make a comment on what you said about Trump with John Reed Stark coming that I think is really interesting. I think that the nuance there and we'll get into it in the future shows is that Trump doesn't have to change his tune. If you see regime change and the Republicans win, to what John Reed Stark spoke about last time, is that Hester Peirce, as the

senior Republican currently on the SEC, would be at least interim and acting SEC commissioner until they appoint a new one. That can happen, as you said, in a week, a month, six months, a year. But just by default, with regime change, the senior commissioner from the winning party basically becomes the de facto commissioner. So there's no question even if Trump hated Bitcoin, if Republicans win, Hester Peirce basically becomes the SEC commissioner, at least for a temporary time, we know that she would I mean, she's dissented publicly to every single action that Gary Gensler has taken. So it's not hard to take the jump of faith that she would slow all those actions, start to do more crypto friendly things.

And it's a just factual. Ariel, if I could jump in on the other side of that, not to dispute what Scott's saying in the longer run, but in the short term, one of the things that happened last week that was important was the fact that Lena Khan, the chairwoman of the FTC in charge of antitrust issues, went ahead and even after getting smacked down pretty broadsidedly in the Microsoft Activision merger, has decided to go ahead and appeal that decision, which I think lots and lots of people that are experts in the space think is a losing argument, nevertheless still going on with her crusade. So the hopes that we have that Gensler constantly getting beaten down in court, and making his leash a bit shorter with

respect to how much he is being given by the administration to, you know, in a way waste taxpayer money, going after regulation by enforcement may be too hopeful. We may see Gensler continue to go down that path. I 100% think we see Lena Kahn and Gensler continue down their paths because that's their mandate. And they're not being judged in the court of public opinion. They're being judged by Elizabeth Warren and the people who have put them in their position of power. And they're doing exactly what they're supposed to be doing. So I don't disagree with that. And that's why I kind of pointed to regime change, not sentiment that's going to do that, right? So it would take an election and a

switch in power. I think that Gensler and Liddy Kahn, I think these people are going to continue their anti-tech crusade come hell or high water until it becomes so politically unpopular or until their overlords tell them that it's not the case. I mean, you guys may have seen, I mentioned this this morning, did you guys see all the articles that seemingly hit this week saying that basically you'll remember the repeated FUD we've always had about Bitcoin and the environment, that we're

boiling the ocean, that it's using up all the energy, you know, more than a great big country. A slew of articles came out this week saying the same thing about AI. You guys, I don't know if you guys saw it or missed it, but AI will boil the ocean. AI is going to use more power than all of Europe and the processing of chat GPT. So it's literally the exact same repeat arguments against any emerging tech. This is just a very anti-tech administration, very anti-tech sentiment. They're going to come for AI and mergers, as David said, the same way that they came for Bitcoin, with the same narratives.

Cool. Any final – so tomorrow we're going to cover the SBF trial, by the way, guys, and we're going to talk about – Is this going to be like OJ, Mario? I mean, I don't know if anyone else was around when OJ, but it's all we talked about for weeks in time. Does it get broadcast? Does it get broadcast i don't know no it's it's federal court and they will not allow cameras or any photography in the courtroom so you'll have reporters that'll be positioned in the courtroom and they'll probably be posting on social but no live coverage yeah similar to what we when you remember guys when we covered the uh

um the the the when when spf was sentenced to go to jail for interfering in the investigation when he was communicating with his ex-girlfriend about – or when he leaked her journals to the New York Times. So that was done without any broadcast, and we just covered it. There was a journalist inside that was sending out live updates, and we're just covering it. I think Scott, you were there. I don't know if Ryan was. Yeah. But, yeah, it's similar to that. I'm actually going to be in New York speaking at the New York State Bar Association's Digital Asset Global Conference in October.

And I plan to attend at least one day of the trial. Perfect. Yeah, we'd love you to come on, Carlo, and cover it. Yeah, that'd be great. Cool. All right, I think on that note, tomorrow we'll be covering, yeah, the John Reed Stark story on a Republican presidential candidate and what that means for crypto. Bullish.

And the SBF trial. Yeah, Brian? Perfect. See you guys tomorrow. See you, guys. Bye-bye. Thank you, guys. Bye.