The Wolf Of All Streets - On-Chain Wednesday: Why Will Clemente Is Bullish On Bitcoin

Episode Date: November 2, 2022

Will Clemente, a popular on-chain analyst and co-founder of Reflexivity Research, digital asset research & proprietary trading firm, joins me for the On-Chain Wednesday.  Will Clemente https://twitter.com/WClementeIII ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER https://www.getrevue.co/profile/TheWolfDen  GET UP TO A $8,000 BONUS IN USDT AND TRADE ALL SPOT PAIRS ON BITGET FOR ZERO FEES! ►► https://thewolfofallstreets.info/bitget   Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://twitter.com/scottmelker  Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/wolfofallstreets   Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.io  Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe  Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c  #Bitcoin #Crypto #Trading The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

When it comes to trading strategies and analyzing markets, there are a number of ways to skin a cat. Obviously, I've always focused primarily on technical analysis and then understanding the fundamentals of what's happening with markets. But on-chain analysis is a huge part of strategies used to be a successful trader in crypto. Not my core competency, but as usual, I like to bring on experts who understand what we're discussing much better than I do so that I can learn alongside you. Today, we have Will Clemente, who is going to share his ideas on how to become an on-chain analyst and trader, some of the things he's looking at, and we will obviously discuss some of the big

news stories and topics of the day. You guys don't want to miss this. Let's go. What is up, everybody? I'm Scott Melker, also known as the Wolf of All Streets. Before we get started, please subscribe to the channel and gently caress the like button. Do whatever you want. I don't even know why we tell you at this point to subscribe to the channel and to hit the like button. It feels like it's part of being in the matrix and we need to all opt out of that habit because if you're here, you've probably subscribed to the channel and you're not just going to hit the like button because I told you to. Anyways, I digress. Going back to the topic at hand, as you guys have seen, we've been somewhat restructuring the content on the channel of late, trying to give a definitive structure to how it will happen. Monday, obviously, we do macro. We had Mike McGlone. We have guys like

James Lavish coming up. Tuesday, traders. So it's going to be your favorite traders from crypto Twitter and beyond. Wednesday, we want to focus on on-chain because obviously I find it to be a huge gap in my own knowledge, even though I follow it relatively closely. Thursdays, of course, we have our roundtable every week. And then Friday is a review of the news. So today is the first day we're doing on-chain and we could not have a better guest, of course, than Will Clemente. I'm going to bring him on right now. Will, welcome, man. Thank you so much for joining. Hey, Scott. Thanks for having me on, man. Of course. So listen, as I've said many times, this is not really my core competency. I think I understand the basic metrics, but I also find that the way the same data, much like technical

analysis, is analyzed, you can look at the same data much like technical analysis is analyzed you can look at the same chart and get two completely different versions of what it means depending on the on-chain analyst so I guess the first question is where should people start what are the most important clear metrics they should be following if they want to understand on-chain analysis yeah sure um I mean my opinion on on-chain has definitely evolved over time. I started following it, I would say in 2020, late 2020. First of all, on-chain is a very new thing. Many of the backbone metrics that are used now really weren't created until late 2018, 2019. And this latest market cycle was the first one that this, I would say, new nascent

form of analysis was actually put to the test in real time. And along the way, I think we learned a lot of things about certain metrics that do work, don't work, and the nuance behind some of the reasoning of those things. I would say, originally looking at things like exchange inflows and outflows, things like that have definitely proven to not really have much signal as the market's gotten more nuanced. For example, you could have coins moving to exchanges that are simply just people adding collateral to a futures position, or you could have some whale. I don't know if you remember this, but going back to, I think it was February or march of 2021 um the market was like super jacked up on derivatives um i think funding rates were at like 200 percent like annualized or some crazy shit like that and uh

you had this alert that went out on like a crypto quant uh telegram group and it was like uh 200 million dollars or 300 million dollars that that BTC sent to exchanges. I'm pretty sure because within 30 seconds, the market started dumping. I'm pretty sure that kind of catalyzed a lot of these super long dribs traders to freak out and close out their positions, which kind of caused a cascading effect um so you know when people were paying that much attention to the exchange flows um for some of these big whale guys is very easy way to kind of manipulate the price and and you know if they wanted to you know all right let's trim off some of this uh you know froth and the derives landscape let's go ahead and

just send you know send some Bitcoin to exchanges We'll just leave it there until they freak out, flush out, and then we'll buy back our position. And so things like that. Also, the exchange outflows, they could be simply people moving Bitcoin to custody providers. All this is just a point to say that I don't necessarily think it's as simple as coins being moved to exchanges means that people are selling coins. Moving out of exchanges means that people are buying. And with that, if you look at exchange flows over the last year or so, I mean, they've been perpetually down, but so has been the Bitcoin price. So I don't really think that's much signal. Things also like, for example, I to try to follow like the whales holdings

and the premise of that was i would look at the you know on-chain addresses over uh let's say like a thousand bitcoin and then you filtered out some of the labeling that someone like a glass note had done on you know exchanges or otc desks etc um The problem though is just, you're just not capturing the nuance of, quote unquote, whale could be, not necessarily an actual, whale could just be a custodian. It's just, you're missing a lot of the actual labeling that you're kind of making all these presumptions in terms of those

flows. So I just haven't found much actionable use in those things. Now, on the flip side, what I will say that I have found actionable use in are these relative valuation metrics. So if we look at something like a realized capitalization of bitcoin so this is looking at instead of the market capitalization this looks at the last time that coins were moved so you know let's say a coin was last moved at a dollar you multiply the amount of coins that were you know bought at a dollar times that price instead of uh the amount of coins times the current market price that would give you know, you add up the sum of that to give you the market capitalization. So it's basically showing you the kind of aggregated cost basis of the market. And so you can compare that to market price and get basically like this relative valuation

model, something like that I found very useful. And then, you know, on top of that, I'll also say that then you know on top of that i'll also say that you know i used to just follow on chain partially because like from a content perspective i felt like that was kind of my unique ad to the twitter you know landscape sure but um but you know in terms of like actionable trading you know the way i kind of view on chain now, it's like it's kind of this contextual view of like the high time frame, you know, market cycle, if you will. Not necessarily something that should be used for like, you know, multi-week swing trade or something like that. You know, when I get into that much granularity, when I'm trading like a shit coin, like a sushi that I've been like publicly posting my thoughts on over the last few weeks. Something like that, I'm mainly just watching price action. And then more importantly, in my opinion, is the derivatives landscape and liquidity.

And we can get into that in a moment as well. Sure. I love all of those takes, actually, because it aligns very well with my very brief attempts in the past at using on-chain and finding that it was largely noise. And especially now, the inflows, outflows, I love that you pointed that out because I think a lot of the outflows at this point are not an indication that people are buying. It's just an indication that people don't trust exchanges as much after Celsius and Voyager explosions. Of course, we're going to see a lot of people moving

their coins from places where they don't think that they're secure. I've also noticed a trend in the past that I always kind of questioned, which is that a lot of people view bitcoin adoption through a lot of these metric metrics and utilize it to say that you know we're getting this massive adoption of bitcoin or any other coin but to me it's largely just metrics that we have more people speculating which isn't necessarily true adoption i don't know if that

lines up with what you see but like you know hash rate going up or more wallets being open, doesn't it matter more why somebody's opening a wallet than the very fact that they might be opening it to go trade on Uniswap or something? Um, yeah, I mean, I, I go to what you're saying. I do think like the, in like an aggregated context, you know, when you see like a, you know, multi-month uptrend and, you know, new, you know, new addresses or, you know or hash rate ripping all-time highs. I do think that has like some signal of network growth. And we can get into hash rate in a moment. I know we were talking briefly about the miner situation.

But yeah, I mean, I get what you're saying in terms of like adding the nuance there. But I would say if you see like a multi-month trend of one of those things, I think it's pretty difficult not to say that that's like underlying adoption. Yeah. I mean, I have my doubts that we'll ever see a meaningful drop at any point in, you know, wallets and such just for the nature of the market. But I do- If I could just add, I think one interesting thing to look at is like, if you look at wallet growth in general, whether it's like uh like active addresses or like new addresses whatever it may be like the important thing for like people who are you know like long-term holders and crypto or whatever um you know these things base out higher every single

cycle so like obviously you see like a super you know high run up in the bull market you know everyone's coming in because this thing's going up only everyone's like I don't need to get a piece um all the people that are only buying it they have no idea what it is they just see the price going up right and then what happens is like every time we go back into the bear market sure a lot of those quote-unquote tourists leave but you have a fair amount of people who actually you know do their due diligence on the asset you know discover what it is through the price going up which is essentially marketing for bitcoin it's the best marketing scheme you could think of the price running up um and then you know those people stick around and then what you see is every bear

market, a significantly higher base than where those measures of network activity basically bottom out. So I do think like, it's just something, I guess, to note for kind of where we are in terms of down 70% for listeners are maybe you know losing a little conviction is that you know we are apparently you know looking at the data now we are you know forming yet another uh higher low in terms of that network activity oh yeah i 100 think we're bottoming from almost every metric you can look at maybe that's worth discussing in a bit as well but i want to go back to the conversation about hash rate it's interesting you see a lot of sort of the bigger bitcoiners pointing to the fact that hash rate is an all-. You see a lot of sort of the bigger Bitcoiners pointing to the

fact that hash rate is at an all time high as this massively bullish thing, which in context, one context it is, of course, because it means the network is more secure. But we're also seeing a massive flush out and just destruction of mining profitability and some of the bigger miners as a result. Right. When you have an increase in hash rate alongside increasing electricity costs and competition, that's going to be problematic for profitability and make it very difficult to make money mining, right? Yeah, 100%. I think you said it well. The way you can think of miners is they're basically long Bitcoin spot, which also means they're indirectly also long the price of the ASICs, and then their short hash rate and byproduct of that

short difficulty as well. And so as you just said, basically everything, and they're also short energy costs. Basically everything that goes into being a successful miner is going against miners at the moment. You've got Bitcoin price down 70 plus percent. You've got the ASICs miners, which are, in terms of price, they generally kind of perform as like higher beta to Bitcoin. So if Bitcoin goes up, they're going to go up a bit more. If Bitcoin goes down, they go down a bit more. Those are down somewhere between 70 to 80 percent, depending on the model.

And then all of these Bitcoin public Bitcoin mining stocks are also down 80 percent. And as you mentioned, energy prices are up in 2022 as in everything else as with everything else so yeah you know miners are in a really tough spot you can look at something called hash rate um i'm sorry hash price which is a derivative of hash rate and price so basically you're looking at the uh the amount of hash it takes um to you know mine a certain amount of bitcoin and what you can see is that value is at all time lows right now uh so you know it's showing you basically as a visual for like this minor margin compression um you know what happens is is i guess just like from a

fundamental standpoint to explain um for listeners like you know in a bull market everyone wants to start running bitcoin right because it's going up only and so you get a bunch of these orders for these machines um they have a lag though from when they're ordered to when they start coming online so you know granted we have like a pretty small sample size and two from 2013 and 2018 uh but what we've seen historically is that there's kind of a lag between the peak in in bitcoin's underlying spot price and the peak in hash rate and that's because there's a kind of that lag between when you can order the machines, actually get them shipped to you. You also have to build out the shelf space to house the machines, all things like that.

So we tend to see that lag. The issue with that is, as we just mentioned, that's kind of a worst case scenario for miners with hash rate ripping higher and price continue to go lower. So, you know, basically each historical you know bitcoin bear market has kind of the bottom has been marked out by some you know regime of uh minor capitulation now granted we're kind of on the verge of one now but we we did have one back in june um you know if you remember going back to june we had core scientific having to sell 7,200 BTC for about 170 mil, which was- Yeah, they've got 20 left.

You've got 20 left. So, right. I mean, this is the good news, I guess, for us and not for Core. You obviously don't want to wish bad on anybody, but it seems like Core, out of all the miners, they're the largest public miner in terms of pass rate share. They're under immense financial stress for anyone who didn't see. In an SEC filing last week, they announced that they're on the verge of bankruptcy, filing for bankruptcy. Not sure if there's been an update on that.

But yeah, I mean, you know, they only have 25 Bitcoin left to sell. So it's not necessarily a market risk. You know, if anything, and we were talking about this briefly before we started, as I just mentioned, there's a largest portion of public hash rate at 4.9%, I believe. So if theoretically in the restructuring hash came offline, that's actually a net good thing for the rest of the miners. But Scott, maybe you have more insight into this to me because I'm not like a distressed debt guy, but I don't think in the financial restructuring, the miners will come offline. I think they're toast, but I agree with you. I think the company is toast, I should say. I don't think that there's any viable way to survive without probably chopping it up and pulling a Richard Gere and Pretty Woman and

selling off the assets. But I, like you, don't think it will generally affect hashrate. I think that it will be easily replaced. And now we got the news yesterday that Argo is also struggling and could potentially go into Chapter 11. Different reason. They had basically a $27 million investment lined up that fell through at the last second. So it looks like they could be following along.

But I do think that's the beauty of the Bitcoin network, right? There's really no bailouts. It's a free market. Somebody stronger steps in and does it. I just hate to see it because I really like these guys. I'm friendly with Darren Feinstein from Core Scientific. I would hate to see this happen. I do wonder where this rip in hash rate has been coming from.

Like the cynical part of me is like, is someone trying to like squeeze out the other miners? Yeah. Like, you know, if you're some huge miner that's like really well capitalized like are you just trying to squeeze out all the other inefficient guys like rockefeller style even if you're like temporarily take the loss because you can weather it and right i think that's one great premise i think a lot of it in my mind goes back to what you discussed which is that during the bull market all these new miners were purchased they They were extremely delayed. People built the rack space and probably felt like they had to put them online regardless of what the market was like. So if you receive thousands of these miners and the price

is at $19,000, it was at $60,000 when you ordered them, you're not going to sit on them, right? You're going to put them online and hope that you are the stronger entity. But that's just a theory as well. But we do know for a fact that there was this massive boon in mining in 21 and everybody was buying them. Yeah. I guess the other like non cynical take and like hopium take would be that you have some, you know, large energy producer that's decided to use their excess energy. Maybe they're just flaring it off or whatever. And it finally decided to use their excess energy. Maybe they're just flaring it off or whatever, and it finally decided to plug into Bitcoin mining. I don't know which it is, but those are kind of my two main theories here. I would imagine it's just a combination of all of them, but it is sort of speaks to the evolution of on-chain analysis that we were talking about at

the beginning. There used to always be this endless debate of why price and hash rate move so closely together and which one was leading sort of the chicken and the egg. And now we have a hash rate at an all time high and price, you know, 70% off the highs. So pretty much killed one of the greatest debates that we ever had in on chain analysis, right? Sort of proves it's nascent and we're still learning. Yeah, exactly. Yeah. So listen, you also obviously go well outside of on-chain now. It was interesting to hear you sort of say, listen, you know, we tried it at the beginning and now it's become more of a contextual thing than actionable day-to-day trading data.

So that means you're primarily using technical analysis. And I have obviously noticed that you're aggressively trading sushi. Yeah, look, man, I think, you know, I'm just like a very open minded person. And I try to just, you know, evolve my thinking as needed. And, you know, I think it's just been clear that from like an active allocation perspective, you know, like swing trading type things. I guess some people would consider, you know, active allocation, like, you know, taking a trade every like two or three years to like trade the broader cycle.

But yeah, for like on chain really hasn't been actionable for like, you know taking a trade every like two or three years to like trade the broader cycle but yeah for like on chain um it really hasn't been actionable for like you know intro each month intro week stuff yeah I I definitely have found the liking to um using price action but especially in confluence with other things um mainly I would say breaking down into three things like liquidity uh derivatives and also the order books. And when you can kind of get a confluence of those things with price action, I think that's really helpful. You know, especially if, you know, let's say you look at like a liquidity heat map on something like a high block or like a Kingfisher, which basically try to like estimate where derivatives positions have been opened and like where pockets of liquidity are. so you can look at kind of a level that that's shown on there you can also look at a level perhaps where there's a large amount of bids or asks in the book and then you

can also look at you know an important contextual you know area for for price action you know whether it's some key support or resistance. And so just in theory, let's say price is at key support, you've got some large bids that are being filled, you've got the liquidity delta, which is high blocks, look at the difference between proximity to price between the aggression of longs and shorts. And then also you look at the derivatives, you know metrics open interest and funding rates and you've got you know mooning open interest on like increasingly negative funding like that's very high confidence across four or five different tools that you

probably do for for a little reversal um and then obviously the the inverse of that uh you know at resistance and so those are the types of things that i really found useful uh and yeah i guess to get into sushi like sushi's been trading extremely clean um you know i've been trading coins not as long as you but i've been trading coins for or say like a good year year and a half now and and sushi's been extremely efficient in terms of it's been squeezing all liquidity out to one side so you know it'll hook in a bunch's been squeezing all the liquidity out to one side. So, you know, it'll hook in a bunch of shorts, squeeze all the shorts on the way up, distribute into the late longs and then rinse all those guys until the last late long is rinsed out

and then squeeze it right back up once, once shorts are hooked back in. And it's been trading in this very clean daily, uh, channel. So, you know, it's done this on the bottom of the range at the top and keep going until you're proven wrong and you stop out on that last one it's like it's one of the more obvious strategies yep and i think it's one of the one of the few coins that i would say has a narrative in this market right now there's really not that many like thematic narratives which in my opinion like i view like the all coins very cynically I think they're just speculative vehicles with like a little you know um I mean there's some underlying

like technological you know improvement with with these things and like Innovation but in terms of how they trade a lot of it's just narrative and like thematic things and then you just tie that into like you know is that being reflected in price action and then you get that you know feedback Loop between the narrative and price action. And I think for sushi, the underlying narrative right now has basically been for the last month that there's like a sushi turnaround narrative. So they brought in a new head chef in Jared Gray, Cumberland and Golden Tree both back sushi.

Golden Tree has like a $10 million position, according to the on-chain wallet that i have tagged uh and they've added to that multiple times over the last few weeks um and so you know i think i think the way that i'm thinking about this is like if they do one implementation if golden tree pushes forward one one protocol implementation um you know set a new roadmap for the protocol or whatever it may be uh market participants are gonna extrapolate out more changes right so i think like the big thing with all coins is like and you see this with things like cardano right like i've never traded cardano but like the reason why cardano ripped higher is because people had expectations of something actually being done and so like you get this like very cynical take with altcoins where like actually delivering on something is like the most bearish thing that can happen. You just got to keep the hype going.

And that's not a statement. I make no statements about Cardano specifically, but you're absolutely right. Once there's an actionable product and people kind of lose interest because you don't have the buy the rumor, sell the news event. You just find the rumor. Right, exactly. And like with Sushi right now, you know, they've yet to release that, you know, first kind of implementation or, you know, protocol roadmap. But I think once that's, once that is released, then you'll have market participants extrapolate out, you know, two, three, four more changes because, you know, not only has GoldenTree said that they're going to come in and, you know, try to turn things around, but now you actionably are seeing, you know, a protocol implementation being made yeah and so that's

kind of been my thesis as to um you know why i've why i've been bullish over the last few weeks yeah i actually have jared gray on the round table tomorrow and we're doing a defy round table so interesting that you bring up uh sushi today but i'm interested to listen i just brought up the sushi chart real quick and painted out that channel so people can kind of see what we're talking about here on the daily. That gives the general idea. There's a couple of comments over here. Hugh says on-chain has been garbage for months. I think you could argue that inside that all analysis on-chain technical otherwise works primarily in trending markets and doesn't work particularly well when the market is chopping sideways. So I don't think that's unique to on-chain in this case. Yeah, I mean, I think

that's fair. I also think like a lot of these valuation metrics, you know, are just in these levels where I think it's like a good time to be accumulating heavily. You know, a couple of them, like the market cap to realize cap metric we talked about, short-term holder cost basis relative to long-term holder cost basis. I could pull that up real quick, I guess, to give- Sure, if you've got a contract, that'd be awesome. Yeah. I love your point while you're doing that about finding that liquidity and the liquidations. Zorin and Trip, ISO, who's an old friend of mine, put me onto that quite a long time ago. And I'm always impressed with how they use those

and how accurate they can be for the liquidations. That's from High Block, right? I mean, that's primarily what they do. There you go. Yeah, yeah. ISO is great with the heat map, for sure. They were, yeah, they were, I remember when Zorin had like in his bio,

like liquidity theory. I was like, what does that even mean? I mean, they somewhat created it and they built that entire course. They're great guys. Like I know, I've known Triple a very long time. I saw he's really a great trader. So they kind of put that on my map. No, yeah, 100%. Cool. So this is the on-chain cost basis metric it looks at the short term holder cost basis and the long-term holder cost basis so the premise here is that whenever

the short-term holder cost basis goes below that of long-term holders it's a good signal to accumulate because short-term holders have capitulated out of the market so if you look this was the first cross here in 2011 basically marked the exact bottom tick here's the one in 2014 which basically coincided with the exact bottom tick uh 2018 uh a few days after the bottom tick and then recently we've been in this period of the cross over the last you know three four three, four weeks or so. So this, in my opinion, you know, while the screen shading, which means that the short-term holder is below the long-term holder, that indicates a good time to accumulate. But for those who are kind of waiting for confirmation or more, I guess, momentum oriented, I think what you can look for is the cross of the short-term

holder cost basis back above that of long-term holders that you see here, you see here, you see here, and we've yet to see currently. So, you know, of course you're missing the bottom slightly, right? You know, look at- God forbid, God forbid you don't buy the dead bottom. But you know, you're basically paying the price for confirmation. So I gotta say that that's kind of the actionable way you can think about using this, But, you know, something like this, sure. Like, you know, it's not super exciting. It's just telling you it's a good time to accumulate. But again, I think that's kind of where the value in terms of on chain has been is for kind of people who are, I would say, like swing hodlers, if that makes sense.

You know, people who are kind of like swing trading the broad trading around their core position. Sure. Right. Yeah. I mean, I guess it's a good time to ask you before I let you go. I know we're running up against time then. So general thought on the market here that that appears to show that we are bottoming my opinion. I mean, when we hit that bottom in June, I said nobody knows the future. But I said, I think that's the bottom. Right. And if we and if we go lower, I think it'll be one of those major capitulation wicks could be because of miners, something like that. But I feel like we are bottoming and bottoming is a process, not really a price, right? So do you agree or are you in the we're going to 10K camp? Look, man, I think, first of all, like, you know, according to a lot of the blockchain related stuff that we just looked at,

I think we're in an area of value. I think the order books are also showing that as well. If we look at several of the major spot books, if we look at Coinbase, Binance, you're seeing pretty heavy demand, especially on Coinbase from 18K and below. We all have bids, right? I mean, I'm not expecting them to fill, but I've bid every thousand dollars down to like nine, of course, because if it happens, I'm going to be there. Yeah. And it's like, you know, it tends to be the case that like what everyone wants to buy at a certain level, it tends to kind of get front ran a bit. So, you know, I would say like if we did, as you just said, like, you know, if we were to wick down there, I would expect it to get bought up like very quickly because there's heavy demand in the books there.

But I feel pretty constructive, you know, also when we look at like everything that's overhang, you know, above the market from, you know, World War Three and nuclear war being imminent. And, you know, like kind of the worst macro situation in the last like you know three to four decades i guess aside from 2008 and maybe the early 2000s um i guess some could argue that this is worse because it's like a sovereign debt crisis i think it's worse because it's not simply one thing it's right it feels like it's everything yeah yeah and like you know in the face of all that news bitcoin is still held 19k this you, magical Internet money has still held 19K. I mean, I think, you know, thinking about what would have to take it lower, it would have to be some like, you know, major credit crisis or correlation to one moment, which, you know, if that was to take place, I would expect the Fed, you know, if you had like a, you know, dysfunctioning of the treasury market, I think the Fed would step in and at least temporarily fix that, which would provide relief to Bitcoin as well. So that's kind of my thinking. And I've been averaging in slowly every time we get towards the bottom end of the range. So yeah, I remain constructive. The other thing as well is

my time horizon on the buys that I've been you know, I do a fair amount of trading with something like a shitcoin like sushi. But, you know, with my Bitcoin buys, you know, these aren't buys where I'm looking to, you know, sell at 28k or something, right? These are, you know, multi-year type of buys. So, you know, my risk tolerance and my conviction in like the long term picture for Bitcoin and like what's on the back half of this Fed tightening cycle and what that'll catalyze for Bitcoin. You know, you know, if I'm buying here at, you know, 18, 19 K and Bitcoin drops down to 15 and, you know, wicks down there. I mean, for me, that's, you know, I'm not going to really feel a thing or like, you know, be severely underwater to the point that like, you know, I'm like not being

able to sleep at night, you know. How old are you? I'm 20. Yeah, see, I'm 45. So obviously, it's different. But when I was 20, I was a complete degenerate loser. So it's, it's wonderful to see that there's actually 20 year olds in the world right now who have a long term view and are intelligent and investing because that took me till long after I was 20 to actually have that level. But even for me, I'm 45 and I still do it that way, right? If it happens when I'm 80, great for my kids, right? Yeah. No, 100%.

Yeah. That's always been my approach. Well, I know you've got to go, man. I really appreciate your time and you being on here. I've been following you for a long time. Everybody, it's Will Clemente, III or 1111. What is your, where's your Twitter? It's III, yeah.

I'm the third, so. He's the third. What are the first two doing right now? Are they on-chain analysts? No, no, no. I have a feeling grandpa might not be. Yeah, no, grandpa just got moved into a retirement home. So his on-chain career.

On-chain days are over. Maybe now he'll have time to really dig into the metrics. Well, yeah, guys, everybody follows or anything else? Where anywhere else that people can check you out or find your info, your information or follow what you're doing? Sure, I guess just to plug a little bit, just recently launched this venture reflexivity research. We're dual

arm entity. On one side of the house, we have Prop Trading Desk. On the other side, we sell research from everything from DeFi, Bitcoin, Fundamental Ethereum Analysis, and Global Macro. That's not all done by me. I have a team of really smart people who are smart where I'm not necessarily strong.

If that's something you're interested in, be sure to check that out. If not, I post a lot of my thoughts on Twitter. Aside from that, thanks a lot, Scott. I had a lot of fun. Thank you, Will, man. And everybody, please give him a follow and check it out. I'm going to let him go, and I'm going to answer a few of your guys' questions, then we'll get out of here.

Thanks again, Will. Appreciate it. Take care, man. Thank you. I just see that there's some questions over here, so I'll try to get to them. And you can ask me, how come we are bottoming if macro is getting worse? Questions over here, so I'll try to get to them. You can ask me, how come we are bottoming if macro is getting worse? I think it's debatable whether macro is getting worse, honestly.

You have to remember that macro getting worse is really about the perception of what could happen versus the reality. It's about expectation. I do agree that the world is getting worse, but everybody now expects the world to get worse. They expect the 75 BIP rate hike today. By the way, that's coming in four hours. We'll see what the Fed's going to do. They expect a 50 hike potentially at the next meeting, and then they expect it to wind down with potentially 25. So anything that's not worse than that will actually be viewed as good news or sideways. And as Will made the great point, Bitcoin's chopping sideways while all these other things are dropping, while currency markets are breaking. That's actually a good sign because people seem to already forget

that historically Bitcoin has been an uncorrelated asset that has offered idiosyncratic risk. And we have this correlation increase when markets are bad, but all assets become correlated during the dump. And then you see when they decorrelate, which are going to perform better. I talk about it all the time, but you go back to March of 2020, very obvious that the asset you wanted to be in when markets bottomed. And by the way, in March of 2020, everyone thought that the stock market was going to go much lower than it did. There was disbelief. But what asset do you want to be in? You want to be in the one that doubles stocks or you want to be in the one that went up 17 times, crypto. So

I think that now if you think there's a chance we are bottoming, it is a good time to buy even if it goes lower because your upside is so much more massive, right? You guys may not remember, but in March of 2020, when the stock market bottomed, April and May were the worst performing months in history for hedge funds because there was so much disbelief that the market was actually bouncing. Everyone thought it was a dead cat bounce. Everyone thought that it was a bull trap. And the market just kept coming up. And hedge funds, the smartest money, the biggest money on Wall Street absolutely got slaughtered in what was arguably the best possible moment to make money getting long any market in history. Maybe the bottom of the Great Depression,

bottom of the Great Recession. But if you got long stocks and had conviction that maybe the bottom of the Great Depression, bottom of the Great Recession. But if you got long stocks and had conviction that was the bottom and followed the signs that started to show that it was the bottom instead of being emotionally bearish because of COVID, which was fair, that was most people, then that was the buying opportunity of the century. But what were hedge funds doing? Because they're supposed to be hedging. They were shorting it and getting absolutely crushed and going out of business. Thomas makes the very good point. The economy is different than the market. You could make the argument right now that the economy is not weak, but markets are. I'm not making that argument necessarily, but even today we saw more, there's a hell of a lot of people who have good paying jobs right now. So it depends on what metric you're looking at, but obviously the Fed wants to crush demand. They want to kill jobs.

They want people to get paid less. They want the housing market to come down because that will give them the excuse to eventually pivot. Coco Dice is asking me my opinion on the SPF and Voorhees debate. I hate to admit I didn't watch it. I went about my life. I don't watch many things, to be honest. But it was like, it's been a busy couple of weeks for me. I've been traveling like crazy and I missed it. I mean, at the core, I think both of them have very good points. I think that I like Voorhees' idealism and he's correct about the principles. I also believe that there is a level of realisticness and pragmatic thinking that we need to have because regulation is coming, whether we like it or not. Whether you think SBF is the guy to be pushing that narrative, I think it's fine. Personally, I like him a lot. It's up to you. But we need somebody

there with a voice so that it's not just a bunch of political boomers who know nothing about this market regulating and legislating around it. So you can choose your white knight or your champion. Bitcoin doesn't really need one. But we definitely need to have a voice. And we definitely know that the regulation is coming. So when regulation and legislation come, what you hope to get is a reasonable compromise and not an exceptionally one-sided policy. And I would say odds are without the crypto industry lobbying and without people like SBF out there, we will get something that mimics legacy markets and makes very little sense for DeFi. This is going to be the topic tomorrow, to be quite honest. Right. This is going to be the topic tomorrow. We're talking about literally the topic tomorrow.

I'm zooming back for exactly what we called it. But it's basically the United States government versus DeFi. We're going to talk about the context of what DeFi looks like in a regulated world and what that regulation will mean. So we're going to talk about this exact topic a lot more tomorrow, and I'll do my due diligence in advance of that. We're going to have Jared Gray,

the CEO of SushiSwap, Julian Haas, the co-founder of DeFiChain, and Nicholas Ramsrod, the CEO of Cadet. I think that's how you pronounce it, right? So we're going to have three experts who are working actively in DeFi and see what they have to say about it. Yeah. Tickle Lima wants to know if I got some charts. I mean, listen, I mean, I guess I guess you can get excited about this, but this is Bitcoin right now. Like what? What are we doing here? Nothing, right? Everybody got super jazzed about a rise from 19,100 to 21,000.

But we've been between 17 and 25 since June, and I don't see any reason for that to change. But in general, I think that this was a more bullish move than bearish and that things are kind of looking up. But like, what charts are we going to look at right now? What are you going to look at? Doge? Hit resistance. SHIB? I don't know. ETH? Still looking pretty decent. Kind of flagging, actually.

I don't know. Let's look at the four-hour. That's ETH versus Bitcoin. I've been saying looks good. I'm going to draw this. Maybe it's not there. But yeah, I mean, that's pretty compelling. I'll be honest with you.

That looks like a very nice bull flag. And I would say that Ethereum is poised to outperform, kind of doing something similar on the USD. But listen, ETH Bitcoin, I've been saying for quite a while here that it's looking like it's going to wildly outperform. And it has been, but it might just need to cool off a little bit. And check this out. Right now, there was no bearish divergence, even though it went to overbought. And what you're getting forming

now from this low to here is potentially hidden bullish divergence. If we see an elbow up here on RSI and we see RSI start to rise, we'll have hidden bullish divergence, which is a sign of continuation. Yes, we're already overbought, but never underestimate how overbought you can be. I mean, check out Doge. Doge got to 93 on RSI. Some would argue, yes, you're going to top eventually in overbought, but trying to time when that's going to happen is very hard. That's why I like the bearish divergence, because people like Big Cheds would argue that when you get to overbought, that's actually when you're hitting the power zone, right?

That's when things are just starting to get bullish. Yeah. So, interesting. But yeah, I don't, you know, we're going through these charts, Amazon getting smoked. I'll probably buy some more of that to be quite honest with you

because long-term it's Amazon. Dollar hanging around, USD, JPY hanging around, SPY hanging around. There's really not that much to see in my opinion right now. So hard to give you any actual information. It is what it is. Can't stop that. Scott, what are your thoughts on Elon buying stocks and his intentions? Honestly, I didn't even see it. So I don't know.

I don't know. Amir says, great show. Thank you. Yeah. Will was a great guest. Gave me a lot of context. Greencap Abe says, father-son vibes. Yes yes he could be my my son he could be my son uh just scrolling back see if these are there any other uh comments here worth approaching but otherwise i think we're wrapping up i didn't tell you guys about big debt before did i right down there they got they're running a promotion right now you can get some extra free money by just depositing um i should tell you the discord is well on its way i will remind you guys listen i found a community man manager which is awesome uh we've built out a discord i'm gonna need some of you guys to be the first people in there as the guinea pigs to uh test our concept and

see if all we got is good but i actually still need to hire more people, community managers, but I don't have brilliant people to contribute content and I'm going to be very busy. It's going to be hard for me to do that myself. Of course, some analysts to share charts and things like that. So yeah, we got that going on. But yeah, I'm going to start a free Discord channel. To avoid having it be a complete shit show, we'll probably just, the plan is that all you'd have to do is sign up for BitGet. You don't need to trade, do anything, but at least it gives us some sort of metric

to make sure that it's not just trolls and people have to do something actionable to get in there, but you don't have to actually trade or do anything like that. Yeah. Where do we apply, Scotty? Drew, you're in there. We got that. We got that.

BC in the Matrix says, I got lots of free time to help. I got to figure out a way for you guys to contact us. My DMs have been off on Twitter for a very long time. We'll figure that out and I'll get to you. I don't want to say anything stupid right now and then open the floodgates and have a thousand people spam me. But, but yeah, I'm going to need your guys help and I can find no better place to start than in the community. And those of you who have been here for a while, so it would be nice. Yeah. Um, uh, yeah. Email. We do have, uh, yeah. Email. I'm trying to think what the general email info at the wolf of all streets.io. Oh God. I just said that info at the wolf of all streets.io. That's the, where you can spam my, my assistant. Yeah.

Just give me your phone number. We call you. It's a eight, six, seven, five, three Oh nine, eight, six, seven, five, three Oh nine. Yeah. Welcome to the milk reverse guys. Guys, that's all I got for you today. But I hope you see that we are always trying to improve here, always trying to offer more free things, more education, more information for you, and hopefully, yeah, it's good. Anyways, call my Jones. See you guys tomorrow, 9.30 a.m eastern standard time you're gonna be

there right you're gonna be there you're not gonna leave me like alone are you that'd be weird that'd be weird yeah we're gonna discord soon guys get ready for that Let's go.