The Wolf Of All Streets - Raoul Pal: The Banana Zone Is Coming, Get Ready Now!

Episode Date: June 20, 2024

When will the bananas finally ripen? Raoul Pal, the CEO and Co-Founder of Real Vision, believes bananas will ripen in the fall. Today, we are discussing bananas and some crypto. Don't miss this conversation! Raoul Pal: https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI In the second part of the show, Dan from The Chart Guys will share his market analysis and some trades.  The Chart Guys: https://www.youtube.com/@ChartGuys  ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEKDAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/   ►► The Arch Public Unleash algorithmic trading. Discover how algorithms used by hedge-funds are now accessible to traders looking for unparalleled insights and opportunities!  👉https://thearchpublic.com/  ►►OKX SIGN UP FOR AN OKX TRADING ACCOUNT THEN DEPOSIT & TRADE TO UNLOCK MYSTERY BOX REWARDS OF UP TO $60,000!  👉https://www.okx.com/join/SCOTTMELKER  ►►TRADING ALPHA READY TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS? THE BEST TRADERS IN CRYPTO ARE RELYING ON THESE INDICATORS TO MAKE TRADES. Use code 'TENOFFSALE' for a 10% discount. 👉https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker  ►►NGRAVE This is the coldest hardware wallet in the world and the only one that I personally use. 👉https://www.ngrave.io/?sca_ref=4531319.pgXuTYJlYd  ►►NORD VPN  GET EXCLUSIVE NORDVPN DEAL - 40% DISCOUNT! IT’S RISK-FREE WITH NORD’S 30-DAY MONEY-BACK GUARANTEE. PROTECT YOUR PRIVACY! 👉 https://nordvpn.com/WolfOfAllStreets   Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://twitter.com/scottmelker   Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.io   Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe   Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c   #Bitcoin #Crypto #Bananas The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

It's finally happening, ladies and gentlemen. I get to make Banana Zone jokes for approximately 29 to 35 minutes. I have to admit, the first time that I saw Raoul Paul present the idea of the Banana Zone, I actually laughed out loud and spit a drink across the dinner table. It's become my favorite joke, and all I want to talk about is the Banana Zone with Raoul Paul. Let's do it. Let's do it. What is up, everybody? I'm Scott Melker, also known as the Banana of All Streets.

Before we get started, please subscribe to this channel and slap a banana on the like button. I'm going to bring him on right now. When you come up with things like this, is it like in your sleep, you wake up, you've had a fever dream? Maybe, you know. The idea was it's all going to go bananas. It was actually about Q4 last year. We were talking about stock markets and liquidity. And then you look at those charts of what Bitcoin does at the back end of the crypto cycle. And it's like, well, clearly it's a fucking banana. So therefore it has to

be the banana zone. And yeah, we laughed a lot. I think we need to start a new channel. I'm putting myself in it called the banana zone and we'll get people really excited during the bull market and then when the bear market hits we could just flip the banana upside down exactly it's perfect and if that fails it could be a porn channel that's i wasn't gonna go there yes uh well you and uh you and arthur hayes got together recently right and on your channel and I think on another one. And it was like the bull fest of all time. The two of you together, the bananas exploding left and right, you know, out of the tip to your point.

But like you obviously remain still exceptionally bullish. We wouldn't be talking about the banana zone if you weren't still, you know, fully believing in this liquidity cycle that we've talked about in the past, four-year cycle itself in crypto, which is just a very small part of that, the election cycle, all of these things, which is amazing because it feels like people are just capitulating left and right because of a few months of chop. It's unbelievable. I see my comment section, everyone's gone from banana zone, banana zone and posting, you know, various memes to where the fuck's my bananas, you're a fraud. I'm like, guys, it's not an hourly chart game here. You know, this is, you know,

I always said, listen, does it come this week, this month, next month? I don't know, don't really care. The point is, you have your positions ready. You do nothing, and magically bananas appear. Magically bananas appear. That definitely sounds like a movie. So listen, I didn't even get my charts, my screen up, because I'm weird today. I don't know.

I haven't one of those days. But here we go. Here's a tweet. If you wanted a cheeky top-up of your sole position, this would likely be a good entry zone. Let's see. The bananas are slowly ripening, but should be magnificent in the autumn. The first thing I noticed when I read

this, we know you're a Solana Bull, but is exactly what you said, which was the comments. A couple of weeks ago, we were on the cusp of a banana season. Now it's months away, the anger, right? You said it's summertime, now postponed to autumn, right? So the time there. But shouldn't it be clear that when we say summer and autumn, we're talking about crypto

summers and winters and falls, and we're not talking about the fact that it has to happen in June or you can't wear white pants after Labor Day? I don't get it. No, I mean, yes, it's confusing because there's crypto spring, which kind of ended, you know, it's transitioning now into crypto summer. That period lasts into the end of this year. And then we go into crypto and macro fall. Okay, those are the seasons.

There's four of them. But we've actually, you know, live in the real world too and they have seasons and so you know yes we're coming into summer as well i mean but what i mean by it's all gonna have to happen in autumn because a autumn is a better word than fall that's a stupid word yeah so let's just use autumn because it's much nicer. It's English. But we've got, look, the back quarter of an election year is true banana zone in all assets. It always is. So you know that you've got a very, very, very high probability that by autumn things are utterly ripping. And that's what I mean by that. I mean, how long before

ETH, Bitcoin, Sol break their recent highs? I don't know. It could be two weeks. It could be two months. It doesn't really matter, but then it accelerates. And that's when I have a whole selection on my desktop of banana memes that I shall be unleashing. I hope you have literally an entire meme-creating team just saving those. The good news is the longer it takes for the bananas, though, and the better the memes, and the more of them we should get.

But we did discuss here... I will be run off the internet if it doesn't happen. Well, I mean, you know. And then the minute you get run off, it will happen. Of course. Because that's how this works. It's coming. It's just a matter of when.

So obviously, you and Arthur had this conversation on your biggest altcoin gems for the bull run. I think both of you are still exceptionally heavily bullish and invested in Solana and the ecosystem there. But actually, I caught something when just kind of reviewing this right before. And it was that both of you mentioned Aptos, which I had not really seen on people's radars to the point where he even said he thinks it could surpass Solana as the largest layer one outside of Ethereum. What are you seeing on Aptos?

So I actually prefer Sui, but the disclaimer is I'm on the foundation. So I love O'Shea from Aptos. Like I love that guy. Like he's one of the people ever so i want you know i want the juice i love mo um i'm on the foundation of of um suey which is the other move protocol both came out of um facebook libra project um the suey team rewrote the entire code stack um but this is the move protocol. Even people like Chris Berniski have said, listen, is there a chance of a move virtual machine as well? Because the technology stack is so incredible.

Now, I think Arthur's probably being hyperbolic about Aptos flipping Solana. But I see a lot of activity, a lot of business development opportunities, a lot of speed from the network. There's a lot going on. So I would choose Sui over Aptos. But again, you can discount it because everyone's saying, well, he's got tokens because he's on the foundation. So most people have to discount me. And I don't know whether Arthur is compromised in that way with Aptos as well. Rationally, wouldn't you only join a foundation of something that you were extremely bullish on? Of course. Of course.

Yeah. I guess there's people who are like, I'm an advisor to 97 projects and they're all competitors. Yeah, that I get. That's a very crypto thing. Yeah. But yes, look, I think somebody, I've mentioned this, the big trade for probably Q4 this year and all of next year, well, as long as the bull market lasts next year, will be this next round of layer ones. Like Solana did last time around. It was Solana, Avalanche, Luna and Matic last time.

Ethereum the time before that. EOS, a bunch of others. This time around, yeah, EOS. What's it going to be this time around? I think it's going to be, I don't know. Monad, a lot of people talk about. I don't really have a clue. Sui, I think, is in with a decent chance.

Whether Arthur thinks Aptos. And there'll be something else near, maybe. Who knows? Yeah, I just giggle when people say EOS because that was peak insanity. I think they raised 4 point... Some people say 4.1, 4.4. I've heard people say 6.

But over $4 billion for an ICO for something that never materialized. Well, it still exists. Excuse me, the promise of it never materialized. But people, I don't think, realize that they are one of the largest holders of Bitcoin on the planet because, I mean, hundreds of thousands of Bitcoin they hold, which is just amazing. They should just go full micro strategy. Well, what they've done is they've built Bullish, which is the exchange,

which hasn't really got major traction yet. It has with some institutional guys. Let's see what they do. They're based here in the Cayman Islands, so I actually know them. Yeah. So I want to talk about where you should be then. The layer one premise is really solid

because it's the only place that people with large amounts of money trying to move size can actually invest, right? Vinny Lingham actually was on Spaces with me the other day and he made that point. He said, listen, the VC money is going to go into the layer ones. That's why you see the heavy investment in these.

We can talk about meme coins all day. You can turn 500 into 50,000 in a meme coin, but you can't deploy 50 million. That's right. Right. So it's a wide discrepancy there between what's going to have true monetary backing and what retail can basically flip around. Yeah, that's right. It doesn't mean that they're going to be the best performers. There'll be all sorts of incredible stuff that ends up being better performers further out the risk curve. But this part is a trade that almost everybody can participate in and make real money in. It is really not clear what it is. How I address this is I now look at the Solana chart versus a bunch of these. And you start looking for a basing. You always look at divergences. Those would be your first signal. Then you'd

look for some sort of chart change in pattern. I'm looking at those because that will be a signal that, hey, look, there might be a bigger trade here. And that could be a fun one because those tend to go truly bananas when they happen. That's really interesting though, because in the previous cycles, you charted everything versus Bitcoin, right? You couldn't even even trade there were no stable coins when i started right so we were trading doge bitcoin at 15 sats right then because we got uniswap and such people started trading against eth as the benchmark because nfts right you were buying them with if you wanted to beat eth now you're saying the benchmark becomes salana. Not so much the benchmark. It's like the major top performing asset. If you're going to allocate money to anything, it has to beat that.

If not, you should keep your money in Sol. That's how I think about everything now, right? Which is why I'm hyper-concentrated in Sol because over time it has beaten all the major bets. You know, I've owned and I still own Wythe and Bonk. Why? Because they actually outperformed Solana. And the chart showed that.

Does that continue? I don't really know. But that's how I think about it. It's like I'm allocating capital. I want to make the most money possible, taking the least amount of risk. Solana is a low risk bet. But if I'm going to allocate capital further out the risk curve, it better be Solana. If not, I'm just wasting money.

So that's still your main focus for this cycle? Yeah. Yeah, completely. Completely. And is that from still a fundamental perspective? The first time you really started to catch on, I think, was when you heard about Firedancer. And you really dug into it. And you understood, these are conversations we had in the past, that effectively that effectively if this goes well it could all happen on this one chain yes and i still think

you know i i read toly's tweets of which i understand maybe five percent of them but i understand what he's talking about which is some single state machine versus the Ethereum version of that with multi chains and multi layers. I've lost you, Scott. I'm going to keep talking. So I see that and I think there is a place for that. I then see that FireDancer is coming. And I think that's gonna be a big deal. I think people still don't understand it. Most people have heard about it, but they don't really know what FireDancer is.

So that's all to come. So there's a lot of positive news to come. You know, you hear a lot of kind of business development opportunities coming out of Solana. I was in Singapore hanging out with the head of business development of the foundation. You's a lot of activity going on. So I'm still super positive. The chart price action looks good to me. I think it's forming a big wedge pattern. That wedge pattern, I think, breaks and breaks higher.

I'm still here, by the way. I'm just having a camera issue. So you get to look at my stripes. I'm actually much more handsome this way. I don know man it's been an issue even having a blade but i am here i'm going to keep talking keep trying to fix my camera while you're doing it and like a true pro i just carried on talking as if you were still here you did like i can even take my and it would be just you on stage it was incredible i still have control i will get it fixed hopefully but i like I like that premise. And I think that Solana definitely showed its hand early in the cycle, right? When Bitcoin really started to ramp up, we saw exactly where all the money went. Although it is a bit insane that we had 500,000 meme coins, I believe, launched on Solana in a single month.

Does that give you any pause? Not about Solana itself, but about the market as a whole and where we're at in the cycle? Of course. It's like the NFTs last time around. What you've got is excess saturation of supply building. Doesn't mean you won't have breakouts. Doesn't mean you won't have a king of memes that survives all of this. We saw that with NFTs, but what it is, is a total grab going on now. Anybody and everybody is launching a token to see if they can make some money. And all they're doing is destroying their own market. So the returns of these things go down over time, apart from the ones that actually break out. What they're going to be, who the hell knows?

Again, we'll find out once we get to the once we get to the banana zone we'll really see now i'm seeing you side on i'm yeah i'm going i'm going for a backup camera which i've never done before and people could see the other look i'm going to get down on my knees and look up at this camera but yeah i i think that the uh meme coin casino might be dying here for a little while. I don't know if you agree, but I think we've gotten to enough of the point in the cycle here where that time-based capitulation might lead us to people not being nearly as interested in those. And when those things go down, man, they go down fast. Yeah, exactly. And we've seen that over the last couple of weeks, right? They just plummet like a stone because it's very emotion-driven. If people are seeing the layer ones chopping,

consolidating a few sell-offs here and there, they kind of panic out of the meme stuff. So you can really see where the risk curve is. But when the banana zone comes, people will just go way too far out the risk curve. And we'll see some really crazy stuff happening then. Yeah. So then how do you think this all plays in context of the election, the larger cycle that we haven't really talked about as much today? I think there's been a lot of concern that potentially we would see markets dump this

summer and then we would kind of see a ramp up into the election. But it seems like things are full go no matter what data we get, no matter what news we get. The election cycle in crypto. Now, we only have four of these, but they tend to do the same thing, which was early summer into this June period. They tend to chop and fall, then it tends to just go up. And there'll be a couple of corrections on route. So it should just keep going up again with volatility. So that's why I put out that tweet about Solana feels like the low is in who knows whether I'm right or not. It feels like the low is in

sentiment was awful. I think the chances are that it just continues to rise now and then really accelerates as we get into the election. You're back. That's me. That was me before. This is a hologram. I went to the banana zone for a while. I just got carried away.

Terrible. Yeah, this is as bad of a camera issue as I've ever had, but I did somehow just fix it. I literally don't know what I did. I unplugged three things, plugged them back in, hit some buttons, and we did the magic. So generally, you said you own WIF and Bonk, so you still believe, obviously, there's a place for the bigger name, meme coins. I do. I think people like them. They make people smile. Now, Bonk may have... I mean, Bonk's been doing well overall, but it may have shot itself in the foot by adding

utility. Utility normally is the death of a meme coin. They've had some sort of DeFi ecosystem around it. Well, Whiff has nothing but a dog with a hat. And it's like, yes, it's ludicrous, but people love the fun of it. Let's talk about that. I think we need two categories of meme coins, if not more,

because of this new cycle. I think you start as a true meme. That's the 500,000 being launched. Anyone participating should know that they're in a casino and they're playing a massive high stakes game of hot potato many of those people don't know but some of those capture the zeitgeist of something political memes or you know shib obviously and doge the dog coin and then the community actually adds utility at that point in my mind, they cease to be meme coins. And it's very confusing for people to have meme coins with utility and meme coins that are literally just lottery tickets. Because once you have utility, you can start to value stuff. Once you don't, you just have attention. And then it's a game of how much attention do i capture and how big is that attention if you have utility on a meme coin then you end up with a problem because people are like well are people using this protocol or are they using this dex or whatever it's based on

and then they see that they're not with whiff they're not using anything it's the same bloody image attached to a fungible token of which nobody cares yeah so the nfts is this like the nfts of the last cycle you know it's all about community and uh maybe this is even a simpler way with a lower entry because like if you want to be a part of the board ape community you had to just have a casual three or four hundred grand laying around last cycle now you need three or four cents to be a part of the, I got, I don't know,

DJT, whatever these things are launching dog without hat cat with face. And are they even communities or are they just speculation? A bunch of people getting together, having fun. You know, the NFT cycle was pretending things were communities that weren't communities. Some were, but they weren't because there was a limited number.

Here, there's no limited number in any of this. It's like, let's just all get together and see if we can make money. It's kind of like GameStop in some respects. It's like the mass hive mind saying, well, we're going to give our attention here. If we all give our attention here, that's all it is. This is just an attention game. There's a finite amount of attention. And the thing that gets the most attention moves the most in price, which is why this 50,000, 500,000 gazillion tokens, if they don't get any attention, they don't go up. But the ones that do, they then start to kind of ascend this status ladder, which is kind of weird.

I mean, why should WIF have status? Why does Doge have status? Well, it makes sense because of Elon Musk and you could say WIF has status because of Ansem or whatever. I think that if you catch the right person at the right moment with the right community, I 100% agree with you these communities are nonsense it's only a community until you lose your money then uh then it's lord of the flies right uh that's great community you know like uh like world war z yeah and so we know that those aren't real communities but that's still the pitch for these right but uh i think that just a few of them sort of capture as you said they just kind of have that moment they get big enough for whatever reason

whatever plumbing whatever's happening behind the scenes but none of them really do much when they try to go utility by the way no and in the end attention is upstream of everything every business we're in what we're doing now is capturing attention on YouTube. And that becomes a business. Attention is what Google, Facebook, X, everything has been built on. Everything is now based on attention. So I get it now that even investing is just based on attention. Because before, Google were monetizing our attention. So we put this on YouTube, they serve the ads,

you get a small fraction, you don't make much money from the ads, well, they make a lot of money. And then over time, you're seeing that people are saying, well, if I can capture attention, I can get the direct benefit, and we can participate in mass attention by tokens. It's actually, it's very interesting.

It's the start of something bigger, but it's only the start. You know whose attention we're going to get? A bunch of Bitcoin maxis that are going to clip this out of context and say that we're the biggest meme coin polls in the world. That's whose attention we're going to capture. You know, I've got a guard from this stuff that we have to put on everything that we say. Disclaimers. Disclaimers, like, please don't take this out of thing. If I put a price target doesn't mean I'm trying to tell you that

it's going there. It's ridiculous. My, my favorite is that like if you casually mentioned meme coins, even in a negative light and have a conversation about them, the very fact that you dared have a conversation about them means that you've violated some sort of peace treaty. Are Bitcoin maxis as powerful anymore as Udi kind of destroyed them? Is that retreating now? I mean, there's still those- I think it is to some degree. And I mean, there's going to be a level of sort of

reality that comes with Ethereum ETFs launching and these things and you know listen i actually had a really interesting conversation which will be out on sunday with jack mallers yesterday we had never done a podcast and he's you know as hardcore as it gets and he gave me the speech about everything's a shit coin and we kind of had like a light debate about it but i get from their perspective to some degree at least his if everything else is competing to be money which is his argument then I totally get that. But I think that if you frame Ethereum as NVIDIA, it's a very different situation. I've just been on tour marketing for exponential asset management, my fund of crypto hedge funds.

And the story I've been trying to explain to people is you've got to understand what this space is about. Blockchain technology is a new technology layer of the internet of which there's a bunch of decentralized businesses that sell block space. And they all have a different angle of why to buy their block space. Bitcoin is we're the most secure. We can be used as money or a reserve asset. Ethereum's, hey, anybody can build on us. We're like this big open computing network. Solana's like, yeah, we can do that too, but we're kind of super fast and super cheap.

Everyone's just selling block space and they have a different story to tell to attract people. And that's all that's really going on here. People turn it into some fight over money. That's Bitcoin's story, but it's not the whole industry story. Yeah. As I said to him, to me, it's like a gold bug being super pissed off when someone who holds gold buys Alphabet stuff or Amazon. But I get the framing in the other way too. I just really view them as completely different asset classes. I mean, that said, we haven't even spoken about the Ethereum spot ETF, that approval sort of wildly surprising at the time, which obviously I think is a result of the political winds changing. We just had a story

that Biden is genuinely turning his attention towards cryptocurrency, that he likes it. He's hesitant to go against Gary Gensler. I think it was Pantera that said this, Dan Moorhead or one of them, that he thinks this is genuine. This is crazy. Two months ago, I mean, even six months ago, we were in full war. So let's go back to the conversation we were just having. What is this all about? Attention. What are elections all about? Attention. What's got a lot of attention? Cryptocurrency. And it also happens to have a lot of money because it's based on this participation in this ecosystem via the tokens. And it also happens to have a lot of money because it's based on this participation in this ecosystem via the tokens. And therefore, there's no way that they go to an election and

try and alienate 50 million people. I mean, that's dumb. So I guess they finally understood because Trump showed it and rammed it down their throat. You mean an anti-crypto army is not something that people want to join and vote for? It just never made sense to me. I get that people would vote for a crypto candidate they didn't even like because they're one issue voters, they're passionate about this, and that's the guy who has said the thing they like that's going to help their asset class they're passionate about. But saying, I hate Bitcoin, even if you hate Bitcoin, you're not just going to vote for somebody because they hate Bitcoin. There's zero voters

that are voting because you are against something. I think the Democrats figured out that there are many single issue voters because we're all financially incentivized to participate in this ecosystem. But if you're going to vote against me me you're voting against me and my future wealth or my future self and so that is a big thing people vote with their pocketbooks i mean that's the oldest thing in in politics and i think suddenly they realized that this was not the right way forward to allow it to go to donald trump as a single issue vote that would be a landslide loss because all the marginal seats would get lost. So now they need to take it out and neutralize it,

which is great for us. Which means none of it's genuine. It's literally just following the winds of voters and money, which I think we know. Just so you guys know, I wasn't making this up. Yesterday it was reported that they've been in talks with the White House House and it seems like there's a genuine pivot. He's reaching out to people in the cryptocurrency industry, trying to

gain more. I mean, this feels like a too little, too late type scenario. But listen, to me, this means that whatever happens in this election, I have no predictions or no thoughts. It'll probably be a better situation than it's been for the past few years my only only prediction about the election is everybody's going to lose their fucking minds we need like a massive landslide in either direction or else it's going to be it's the run-up to it that's going to be everybody losing their minds i mean x is going to be a pretty ugly place going forward. It hasn't really started yet, but by next month, by about August, things will start ramping up and everybody's going to find another reason to hate each other online. We've seen it before.

Yeah. I mean, apparently Bitcoin price going up or down $1,000 is a reason for people to hate each other online. So I can't imagine when it gets into the election. So let me ask you this question before I let you go. We've seen, obviously, this Bitcoin only sort of move to the upside as a result of the ETF. It preempted the halving cycle. It made a new all time high. And we've seen these sort of buckets of altcoins go.

The AI wave, this little RWA wave, and of course, the insanity over meme coins. But I think a lot of people are still upset because they look at their bags and their holdings from the last cycle and they're still down 90%. I mean, you talked about Matic, it's like 50 cents. You know what I mean? Like a lot of these tokens that were very popular, highly hyped, had fundamental things happen. They just haven't moved at all this entire cycle or they had a small move. In your view, do we get one of those alt seasons again where everything goes just because there's so much money flowing in your view, do we get one of those alt seasons again, where everything goes just because there's so much money flowing in? Or do you think that some of these just wildly underperform from previous cycles and it's the new shiny things that we end up seeing?

Part of it is my t-shirt, which is the don't fuck this up, which is, you know, don't hang on to that stuff because that's the narrative you're left with. It doesn't mean they're terrible things, but look, attention flows to the shiny thing. Attention flows where more people are. Now, can we have one of those altcoin seasons? Yes, but there's more of them. So you're splitting that attention and that capital amongst more projects because every cycle you leave a bunch behind like eos didn't run last cycle really you know stuff gets left behind so you have to be really careful which is why i say just don't play that game don't play the value trap game which is oh my god that's still down and last time it was so strong i need to own that it's like it's actually a bull market to just own the strong

thing because that goes up a lot because it actually actually a bull market to just own the strong thing, because that goes up a lot because it actually is like a super massive black hole of attention. And the more attention, more number go up, less attention, less so. So unless a huge narrative shift happens to Matic, this is not going to get the attention that Solana is going to get or Ethereum or Bitcoin or whatever. RAOUL PALMIDAYEVICH Yeah, maybe the framing then, because we talk about the Aptos or the SUI or Solana, of course, is if everything's down right now, why not consolidate to the thing that you think will outperform on the way up? Much like Bitcoin, March 2020, I always point at it. Bitcoin bottomed below 4,000. The entire stock market,

COVID, bottomed 11, 12 days later. What did you want to buy? And I'm not talking about altcoins versus Bitcoin, but which asset class did you want to be in from the bottom? So if we view things as completely wrecked here, wouldn't you want to be in the thing that's going to go up 17x like Bitcoin did and not the thing that's going to go up two or two and a half x like the stock market did? So maybe Matic, I'm not saying that specifically. It just happens to be the answer I use. I hope it goes up. I still hold it. Maybe Matic is the S&P and Sui or Aptos or Solana are the Bitcoin. Exactly. And we don't know, but just don't fight with one hand behind

your back. Don't try and prove a point to the market. That's not your job. Your job is to make as much money as possible out of this technological transformation. If this space is going from $2.5 trillion to $100 trillion, which is I think it's doing, your job is to not fuck that up. And people try really hard to fuck it up, either too much leverage, so then they're taken out. They go too far out the risk curve with too much of their capital. And then they blow up or they get stuck in stuff that is not moving because they're not just trying to participate in the, in the bigger part of the growth, which is usually in the larger projects. So, you know, you we're trying to get from two and a half trillion to a hundred trillion. You need to stay that ride and not end up looking back

and realizing you've made no money from it. Yeah, I think you've got to just mentally be somewhere in the middle. You can't be all in on meme coins thinking that's the only way you're going to get rich because that's just the casino. But you also can't be holding on to everything that's dead just because it's dead. You know, people, I think there's a phenomenon in investing people always sell what's up and never sell what's down it's the opposite of what you should be doing if

listen if your thing is way down and some of the better performers are also way down might as well you know it's not like one's up and one's down by the one that's gonna rise more and and that trick is just look at the charts relative to each other. I like that. I'm going to start doing that. It's really useful because then it stops you building your own narrative around, well, this token is definitely going to be the one. Then you look at it versus Solana, it's down 99.9%.

You're like, okay, I'm trying to kid myself. Because you're looking for this chart breakout on the hourly chart, hoping it's going to base here. It's like, don't do that do that please just buy the strongest assets i just love the i'm going to let you go but i love the comments am i fucking up on xrp i'm not gonna i can't respond no we will never say we will never respond israel is saying i should sell my tesos uh i mean i think everybody knows they're being sarcastic i'm just it man, you just do the thought experiment of looking back at like the top 20 coins every four years. It shows you exactly what you're talking about. These coins just are not going to be the top tokens in a cycle or two.

I tried in the previous cycle to buy a whole bunch of stuff that didn't work either um because half of these were dead the stuff i owned i mean nobody even knows what they are and i just read the descriptor on you know coin gecko or something thought yeah that sounds cool dumb shit we've all done all of the dumb shit and really i should have just you know you just concentrate in the right things i totally agree i have to let you go. Even though I messed up the camera and then the conversation earlier, but now you're over time. I've got my live drinks with Raoul tonight,

which is what time is that? That's at 6. PM your time, 5. PM my time. And it's always fun. I will get hammered. I watched one of them and it seemed like you were on the cusp.

It was wine. I think at that. There's always, there's always going to be that. There's always going to be wine. There's always going to be how to civilize the general crowd. So there'll be snacks and various things and asking questions. So that's on Raoul Pal, the journeyman on YouTube. So pop over there, people, this evening. Just do a glass of wine and a glass of Pedialyte.

Just like to hydrate while you're doing it. Or maybe we could create a Pedialyte infused wine and sell it as a product sponsor for that. I'm just off the cuff here. Well, I'll just tell you, if we don't get a bull market, you just say that you meant the banana zone was an inverse banana and you're good this time. Somebody posted a flat banana, which I thought was quite good. I think it was Jack Butcher.

He just gave me a flat banana. Or we thought was quite good. I think it was Jack Butcher. He just gave me a flat banana. Or we take the banana and we duct tape it to a wall and put it in Art Basel and it's worth millions of dollars no matter what happens. Bananas always win. Bananas always win. Okay, man. I'm going to be in touch. We got to do something more regularly. I keep saying it every time, but it is going to happen. Guys, of course you all follow Raul, but if you don't follow Raul, his you don't follow raul um his camera works better than mine um and it's like as well man thank you so much for uh being a pro and talking right through my issues i appreciate it not at all my friends good to see you and uh let's uh see the bananas ripen let's do it all right guys thank you so guys yeah that was a that

was a technological challenge, but I feel like we got through it. And now hopefully I will not be as technologically challenged when I talk to Dan. I've never had that happen, I don't think, when we've talked. It's only once. Not sure. Maybe once. Once.

Okay, so we were talking, listen, we just kind of had some broad strokes on what's happening. But at the end of the day, we just got to look at the chart and see what's happening today. It seems like markets just keep going up, Bitcoin not following, but everything else doesn't seem to care what the news, what the data, what the reports are. It just goes up, which is why. Yeah, it's still NVDA leading the way. And again, the next bit of information for me is when that tops out and gets the inevitable weekly consolidation, does everything drop with it or do we finally see the rotation? And now, the next bit of information for me is when that tops out and gets the inevitable weekly consolidation, does everything drop with it or do we finally see the rotation?

And now is the time where you want to be focusing on things that are in tightening ranges like Bitcoin. You know, everybody always asks me, what's the next thing we're looking for? The thing that is tightening. And then you look for the tightening range to break. And so there's a slew of names that are in this tightening. And Bitcoin is one of them. You've got IWM, which we've talked about, Amazon. There are still a bunch in these tightening ranges. And so it's just focusing on the constricting ranges, not over-trading while they're constricting,

but getting ready to strike when those constricting ranges break and begin expanding. And so that's where we stand from here. This is the Bitcoin weekly chart. And as you and I talked about over the last month, we may be heading for a sideways summer. And that is what is currently shaping up. We know we're scouting a weekly higher low in Bitcoin compared to 56.5. And it may take a while. It's just a question of how much do we pull back before that is found. And again, now's the time, in my opinion, to be scouting entries for weekly higher lows, if that is your game plan. Specifically, my focus is shifting to ETH with the ETF coming up here in a couple of weeks.

Yeah. I love the NVIDIA point is so important. Just before we dig more into Bitcoin here, it's the largest company in the world now. Yeah, it's insane. This is the weekly chart and, you know, new all time high today. It's up 7% in two days. It's like, it's, it's one of the things where you drop, drop your jaw. And we've certainly done that many times with Bitcoin. I mean, this is a Bitcoin blue sky run in terms of the amount of follow through and just, you know, in terms of assets that you can put on a chart and compare to Bitcoin for returns, this is really one of the only ones out there that you can do it with. Because over the last

decade, it is hand in hand with Bitcoin in terms of returns, maybe not exactly 10 years, but you know, eight years or so. And so again, this is just straight up for multiple months. It will top. We will pull back and look for a weekly high or low. And we just have to be watching very closely. Where does the money go when that happens? Best case, it goes to all the sideways things and they break bull and then they get their turn. Yeah. I'm just looking at Bitcoin even struggling today again after the pop yesterday, but I think we agree. We can talk Bitcoin to death, but it's just going to be a while until we get any clarity there. falling wedge type of setup. So that's what I'm watching here into next week. But patient, very patient. And again, ETH, it's tightening up. We just had a little hourly rising wedge break there. It's a very clear zone. This again, 12 hour timeframe, we got three bottoms down in the

upper 3300s and we've got three tops in the 3600s. And we're just waiting for this sideways range to resolve itself. And I think it resolves it bullish because of that. Again, most likely scenario on the weekly is a higher low and the tailwind of the ETF. But as we keep talking about every week, it's got to be ETHBTC confirming the first weekly uptrend in over a year. I mean, you can watch the trend, you can watch the downtrend line, which we've talked about 15 times over the last bunch of months. This is make or break. This next couple of weeks leading into the ETF is make or break. Can ETHBTC break bull here and do something

that hasn't done in over a year? That's where my attention is because if it's going to happen, the next two weeks is the time it's going to happen, the next two weeks is the time it's going to happen. There you go. I mean, that line is insane. It's so aggressive, so annoying. Every time he seems to have some sort of momentum, just absolutely smack down. So while all this consolidation is happening, what else are you watching? So in addition, CLSK, one of the miners is just now breaking resistance today, getting the highest level in a couple of months. There's relative strength there. You know, whenever I'm looking at crypto stocks, I look at them compared to the Nasdaq and to Bitcoin.

And even just today, you know, CLSK V-shaped to a new high today as we speak, while Bitcoin and the Nasdaq have been pulling back over the last three hours or so. And so, you know, CLSK is one of my top watches in the crypto stock world because of this relative strength. And again, it's just the constricting range that is now trying to break bull and definitely would be trading this thing long right now if we weren't on this call, because it's going up.

Next resistance level, we cleared 2015, which is a big win. Next one, 2139. But Top Watch, others, again, just sideways names. Amazon's a lead bull this morning. It's just tightening on the weekly. This tightening range is going to break one way or the other in July, most likely. You got IWM, sideways tightening range. I'm looking long IWM for its weekly high or low, very similar to Bitcoin. Looking for Bitcoin's weekly higher low, ETH weekly higher low, IWM weekly higher low.

So again, if I can say anything to people that keep asking, what are we looking at for the next quarter or the next half of the year? Find the tightening ranges, establish your game plan. If you want to be aggressive and entering while they're still tightening, that's fine. If you want to be patient and wait for them to break, that's fine. But there's a handful out there. Not everything is going straight up right now, which gives opportunity for if we do get that rotation. Totally. Absolutely. I like that premise. I think that that's still what to watch. And if we go into a bear market, then whatever. We're all dead anyways. Inverse banana zone. Do you think we're coming into the banana zone? Do you think that that's accurate

for crypto? As with your discussion that you just had, if Bitcoin heads up to 100,000, everything's going to be going up, but I don't think it's going to be crazy all season. I think it's going to be a more selective, picking a few names, not a few names, but not hundreds of names where you throw a dart and you're making 50% in a couple of weeks like we've seen in the past. And I come from the penny stock cannabis world. When I first started in 2010, there were only six companies. It was a funnel effect of capital. And then you get 25 companies, there were only six companies, it was a funnel effect of capital. And then you get 25 companies, 100 companies, 300 companies, there is definitely an impact when you have, you know, you can't, you don't have that funnel effect. Back in 2017, crypto on Coinbase in the US, you're only trading Bitcoin, Ethereum, or Litecoin, that's it, you have the funnel effect,

and we have lost that. So I think, you know, I see a lot of people just assuming that everything's going to go insane again. And I personally, if I had to bet, I don't think that's going to happen. I think you're going to have to be more selective and that's where the charts help. You know, as Raul was saying, you've got the measurements of the relative strength comparative to, I use Bitcoin, he's talking about using Sol, but, Sol, I should say, but that's the way to do it, in my opinion, to help know where to look when there is that relative strength. Yeah, totally agree. All right, guys, well, you can follow Chart Guys Dan, of course, on the X machine and on YouTube and everywhere else. I'm glad my camera and Mike survived.

I don't want to press my luck though. So we're going to move on tomorrow, obviously the Friday five with NLW. And now you can go out, trade CLSK and peace, man. All right. See you next time,

Scott. Thanks guys. Bye. Let's go.