The Wolf Of All Streets - Schiff in Denial, NFTs Boom, ETF SOON? | Crypto Town Hall

Episode Date: November 13, 2023

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Yo. Happy Monday. Can you hear me okay? Yeah, you're sounding good. Me? No, I said, are you doing okay? Can you hear me okay? I thought you said, can you hear me okay? I'm doing wonderful. Thank you.

You sound great. I'm glad, bro. That was hilarious yesterday when you turned your camera on. When we were having a meeting yesterday and Mario turned his camera on, I swear he looked like he was in the back of the space shuttle with like an oxygen suit on yeah i don't know what you're doing that's how you spend your casual sunday in like a uh hyperbaric chamber with an oxygen mask on yeah i um yeah this is my life man

i started no joke after that call i started because your response, your reaction made me question my life. For the last 24 hours, I'm just questioning everything about my life. It literally looked like you were at space camp. You should, if you do end up coming to Dubai finally, you know, the first time we meet in dubai we'll be in that chamber for sure 100 and i need to wear one of those uh other mask things you wear all the time oh thank you yeah the air purifier man i was uh i was one of the first people in the world i got on day two and i was the first foreigner to buy it just coincidence i happened to be in new york at the time and first not foreign but first non-us resident and um yeah i when i posted about it um i was grilled and not many people were happy um all right let me i'm going to make everyone happy go ahead now i'm just going through the news how the market's looking i

don't know why cmc is not opening for me the weekend's been flat yeah i mean all coins have continued to run i think that uh expectedly if we're talking specifically about crypto that um a lot of people expected this kind of 38 area to be problematic uh it doesn't mean by a stretch it means the bull market's over nothing like that but you know as we talked about kind of last week 38 000 to 40 that's the area that bitcoin was trading before the Luna collapse, right? Before all the contagion of last year. So I think there's an expectation, obviously, that there would be a lot of taking profit and selling in that area.

So I think it's just sort of running to a wall, but everything's kind of sideways. We had some big altcoin movements and rotation throughout the weekend. I think they go way up. They come a bit down. Everybody says it's over. Rotates into something else. I mean, for me personally, my eyes are kind of on ETH.

I just think that it's been lagging massively and looks really, really good on the chart. I'm just looking at ETH now. Still above 2K. What's Sol? Let me see. Sol is at 56. So it's still pretty steady after the pump. Let me have a look.

Went down 5% a few minutes ago. But yeah, holy shit. No, Sol's doing really well. It's at the peak. $56. Shit, yeah. Yeah, it's crazy. Crazy.

And it's good to see NFT's in the title finally. It's been long enough. But there's one thing that peter schiff talks about you know he's saying that the the etf news has already been priced into the markets and uh we could be we could be disappointed by the impact it will have on the markets and uh we have a a report done by alliance bernstein and they do talk about the same thing that they think uh the market the big pump that we're waiting for the bull market will be till the cycle peak will be in 2025 not next year and they talk about how that makes sense yeah exactly because yeah i mean literally if you just look at the four-year cycle i mean

this is a uh you sort of slightly uh advanced bullish move but you would expect that really it would start to ramp up in late 2024, six or seven months after the halving and then blast off into 2025. But these cycles don't have to repeat exactly. If they did, everybody would be really rich. Yeah, the current BTC breakout is just simply ETF approval news. I'm just reading that quote from the report. Approval news getting slowly priced in and then the market monitors the initial outflows and likely gets disappointed in the short term. James, we'd love to get your thoughts on this particular statement.

Do you think the market will be disappointed on the short-term inflows from the ETF? I don't want to make a blanket statement on that, but I do tend to somewhat agree. I don't think this is going to be the same sort of insane frenzy that we saw for Biddo. One, that was a very different market at the time when that launched. So that also, the way I look at Biddo is it was more the underlying market driving the flows into BITO. And in that case, it was about just over a billion in a day or two. I do think this thing could see a billion in flows in a week or a couple of weeks. But the more larger impact that we'll see here and research from Galaxy and others are in saying similar things, including Bitwise, it's more going to be the long term impact, right?

It's the fact that people can start allocating in traditional portfolios and traditional trad fi type players will start using this for longer term allocations. You're not going to likely see a bunch of advisors who are on the sidelines waiting for this before they start playing in the space. All of a sudden, the minute it launches or the week even it launches, they're going to start allocating. It's going to be a process of looking at all the things that are available to them, figuring out which ones they like and then allocating. So that could be months or even years before we start seeing the flows come from that side of things. Obviously, there are still going to be people that are traders and some advisors might be jumping on this quickly. I think there will also be flows coming from

things like Biddo and potentially GBTC and even potentially Canadian ETFs moving or international ETFs moving to US versions. So there could be flows that would be more like movement from other exposed products to US-based products. But yeah, I think I broadly agree. I think there's just a lot of nuance, as I tried to lay out a bit here, that in exactly what's going to happen

over the relatively short term. Mario, we also have Eliezer here from, I hope I pronounced it correctly, from 21 Shares, the parent company of 21 Shares, 21 Co. He's the head of research there. Obviously, anyone who knows, that's who ARK, I believe,

has been partnering with for their ETF application. So perhaps you have some color there as well and your thoughts on, you know, when we might see approval. Obviously, we saw the Ethereum spot ETF application last week from BlackRock or at least the filing. But you guys with ARK had filed actually quite a while ago. So just maybe paint a picture of where you're seeing the market right now.

Let's see. Eliezer. Yeah, sure. So thanks for having me. We don't specifically comment on ETF applications at 21Shares and ARK, but of course, it's an exciting development. When it comes to outflows from existing products like Beto and Canadian ETFs, as James mentioned, it's possible that we could see that.

But I think in the more longer term, especially when we look at the cost basis of some of these investors. October 2021, you know, BTC was around $55,000 or $60,000. So we could see more inflows when we have these kind of levels back to $55,000, $60,000 per BTC down the line. This is where it could be more exciting for the investors to switch. But other than that, I think for us, we're just waiting to see how this whole market is going to play out with the narrative of having investable products like ETFs available to them in their traditional portfolios.

But at the end of the day, no one really knows when it comes to the timelines. It's really hard to read between the lines. Yeah, I think nobody knows about the timelines. And then there's endless conjecture about what the actual demand and inflows will be that James was just touching on, right? I mean, we have this hyperbolic, if every person on the planet and every investment fund puts a 1%, then we'll get this many trillion. And I just don't believe that everybody's like, if people wanted access to Bitcoin, Ethereum, largely many of them have found it. So it's not like we're going from zero to 100. Just by having ETF approved.

Go ahead, Ellis. Yeah, no, I agree. I couldn't agree more with you for sure. I think there is more catalyst to consider as well when it comes to the potential crackdown of miners in the US. We have heightened geopolitical conflict between the US and China. These are an over thing to consider as well because we're seeing more and more stringent regulation and as well as investigations on Bitcoin mining in the US. So I think that's another catalyst to consider too. But I think for us, when it comes to the ETF itself, it's still a question mark,

but a very exciting development for sure. Jarent. So I agree with that. mark, but very exciting development for sure. Jarence? So I agree with that. The other issue is I think the Bitcoin ETF in the U.S. is hugely legitimizing for many investors when you have not just ARK, but $4 trillion plus asset managers all applying and probably getting approved and launching spot Bitcoin ETFs. That's just going to change the mindset. And for a lot of people, our friends and family members who haven't gotten into Bitcoin or crypto,

they're going to see that Bitcoin is now legitimized by these major players and start buying probably through their you know schwab account or vanguard they don't have to open up a coinbase account and worry about you know the lawsuits they're involved in and so forth yeah i i don't necessarily disagree james i want to talk about this sort of goldilocks window that everybody's been hinting at here i know i think consensus is still january you know or by the end of the year but we do have this moment that you've kind of talked quite a bit about where we could in theory get a whole bunch of approvals all at once right yeah so to be clear i actually think the more likely scenario is what you said it's more likely going to happen

in or closer to to january but we are in a window here where if the sec wanted to approve 12 of them all 12 at the same time they could do it right now for the first time since the grayscale case so i won't say that like oh my god it's definitely not going to happen but like or either or but it's it's i think it's more likely to happen closer to january that's happening now because the grayscale case was affirmed. And since then, a bunch of these filings, including BlackRock and Fidelity and Invesco, have come out of what's known as a comment period. Essentially, I'm sure some people listening and I know people up here speaking have seen these where anyone can submit public comments. And then the SEC will often rebuttal them in some cases.

That comment period is over. So all of a sudden sudden now they can theoretically approve under the 19v4 process. So this is the first time it's come out of there. We are due for another deadline on the 17th for two filings from Hashtag and Franklin. Global X has another deadline on the 21st, which will definitely have a 35-day period

where they have to issue comments or have some rebuttal comment period. So if we wait to the 21st, and then they ultimately delay Global X, then all of a sudden, they can't approve all 12 at once. Now, one thing we've been saying is we think the SEC is going to try to let these all go at the same time, which is what we were saying about Ethereum futures ETFs, and which is exactly what happened. That said, there's 12 filers here, and some of them came very late to the game. A lot of these people that are in this first wave have been trying and filing for literally years just because this is the most recent wave. So I could see the SEC not necessarily

waiting for all 12. So that's also not out of the question. But again, like you said at the beginning, it's more likely to happen closer to January in our view. And the other part of this is that's the 19 before process. That's through the division of trading markets. That's where we're dealing with the SEC. And they're saying, we're worried about fraud, we're worried about manipulation, spoofing, all these different things. There's another process, which is like the offering documents known as the S1s or S3s, basically the prospectus. And there's another division at the SEC that needs to basically sign off on all the things that are listed in those documents, things like risk disclosures about like, what could cause

the price to go up and down? What could go wrong with this fund? How is it custodied? Is it going to be segregated wallets? Who's the custodian going to be? All that information needs to be signed off by the SEC before it can launch. So that also needs to happen. So we could theoretically, even if we do get approval under the 19 before in this window in the next four to five days, we likely won't be ready because everyone hasn't submitted an S1 amendment or a new filing word to launch those offering documents. So like, basically, the SEC needs to approve in two different areas before we can get a launch. Anything can happen. In my mind, it's very hard intellectually for me to imagine

Gary Gensler sitting there rushing to do this before the last possible second when he would have to. We also have Tom from Rozier as well. Any thoughts you have on the topic at the moment? No, I think Ellie and James covered it really well. So I think you guys can continue over to the ETF

conversation on other topics as well. I can comment more on other market movements that is happening right now. Yeah, Tom, actually, I do want to ask you on the market movements in general and not sure if you can give us a bit of insight as well into the NFT market. It's in the it's in the it's in it says nft boom nft's boom in the title so i'm guessing they're doing well in the last few days um i think there is some innovations um that's

happening right now that is not just speculative movements like monkey pictures obviously there are some community value there such as pudgy penguins it is a good example of having product market fit of capturing and penetrating the real world through walmart and like physical toys so i think that's a really great examples and aside from that we actually we had just on that one tom we had the founder of pudgy penguins uh his name but luca he came came on oh you know his the founder's name and i don't i met him i found i was getting deeper yeah i actually sometimes listen to our conversations here it's amazing yeah so so he i'm just looking at the floor of uh of the board but he came on and what what they're doing is really interesting i I think they're, from memory, they've got their toys,

the Pudgy Penguins toys in Walmart, and that toy has an NFT linked to it they can unlock. And I'm guessing that NFT is incorporated into an ecosystem or a game they're building. So it's kind of that bridge between the physical and the digital world through digital ownership. But I'm looking also at the flow of board apes. It doesn't't seems relatively steady

and we see that in eth yeah but you know i'm just i'm looking no no i'm looking i'm looking at the floor in eth yeah eth is up true but but and then yeah usually when eth is up there the floor will drop and probably in in value in terms but it's been relatively steady between 20 to 30 i think it's just above oh so it's about 30 now it was 30 ish last i checked yeah 30 yeah exactly exactly and and uh the the i'm not sure about the punks and let me show you what punks are but yeah the innovation is really interesting tom and what other innovation you're seeing in the nft ecosystem you're seeing gaming starting to gain traction or not yet um i think it's not very widespread yet for the gaming side, but we've been hearing a lot of innovative developments

from different conferences. A lot of gaming has been building. But right now, I don't see a lot of gaming, interesting games that have been rolled out yet. But obviously, one really under-the-radar development that's happening right now is called MyThos Chain. And they have been leveraging or partnering with CSGO. So MyCrossChain is partnering with Animoca as well.

And it is a blockchain that is not widely used by day-to-day users in DeFi, but then it's actually used by a lot of NFTs users because CSGO is a huge game, as we all know, right? And it is even having a higher transacting volume than other JPEGs, like blue chip JPEGs on Ethereum blockchain, such as SportAid, Mutant Apes. And the CSGO that has been trading on my blockchain is being like the skin of different guns. So as we all know, when we play mobile games or computer games,

we like to buy skins right and if you converted it to nfts it is a huge market and it's much bigger and and realized market that haven't been yeah i think you keep dropping out tom is he dropping out for you scott yeah i lost him there too but i usually just assume it's mine yeah yeah i think tom you're dropping out i'm not sure if you're back, yeah. Tom, you're dropping out. I'm not sure if you're back. But yeah, the BBC put out a story. It put out a report on NFT, surprisingly. According to research, so Day Prada, Dapp Prada, the value of NFT transactions hit their lowest point, blah, blah, blah.

Fallen 90% from the peak. And then the volume, it's still not bad. Like back in the first quarter of 2022, the volume was $12 billion, $12.6 billion, now down to $1.4 billion in the third quarter of this year, which is actually not that bad. It's better than I expected. So it just seems there's life still there. And I know Frentech was doing really well and kind of collapsed since. I'm not sure if you still use Frentech.

But in the NFT market, because I know at one stage, all the money, all the attention went away from the NFT ecosystem to Frentech, which just shows that they're chasing the next shiny object. But the volume is still not bad, in my opinion, considering it didn't exist a few years ago. Is that still waiting for further capitulation or you already sweep some floors, Scott? I haven't swept any floors, but I'm not waiting for capitulation after that NFT space as we did where everybody on stage was a punk or a board ape and were literally crying that the NFT space was over. It was like your entire identity on your actual X account is a board ape and you're telling me they're going to zero,

then it's probably time to buy. Yeah. One thing I want to add is why the volume has downbed is because previously these NFT marketplaces have also been placing a lot of incentives such as LuxRare, X2Y2

and even Blur recently. They've offered a lot of incentives specifically for LuxRare, X2Y2, and even Blur recently, they have offered a lot of incentives. Specifically for LuxRare and X2Y2, they have offered a lot of incentive, which causes a lot of inorganic trading issue. You dropped out. I over. Yeah, sorry. Yeah, sorry, you dropped out again.

Finish off. Yeah, all good. Yeah, like wash trading, which has greatly inflated the trading volume previously. And therefore right now, a lot of these proco like looks very sui to they don't have a lot of tokens left on their marketing plan to continue to incentivize users to trade on their platform, right. And therefore, the trading volume is down, but actually the organic volume

isn't down that bad, because of users are still trading entities. That's good to see. Yeah, that's good. Tom, you keep cutting out, but it's good to see that the organic volume hasn't dropped. It's just a speculation that's kind of gone away. I do want to go back. I'm just going through the Scott moving away from NFTs. I think it's a good quick overview with Tom.

We could talk about it a bit more tomorrow get a few of the a few of the leaders in the ecosystem but looking at the peter schiff uh report i don't know i feel it's a waste of time we should probably have him back on the show uh remember last time he was on the show me and him were both in a hyperbaric chamber um i think i was in there as well and both of us doing the space from that chamber so i actually like him i like him a lot more from that day um but he did put out a uh or i think he was being interviewed he talked about the the etf news probably going to be disappointing to the market so it's already all been priced in which i think it has like i don't think he's a perma bear on bitcoin like true i'm not saying he's right or wrong but give him any

quote-unquote catalyst or news and he's going to tell you why it's bearish for bitcoin and why it's going to crash and here we are at you know 37 000 so it doesn't mean everything but doesn't mean everything doesn't mean everything he says as far as like i'd be based on i think he did a twitter poll you know or x poll and basically said you know when will bitcoin crash and it was you know before the news after the news or forget it who cares hold and almost everyone said forget it who cares hold and that really bothered him yeah but those those polls are pretty useless in my opinion no but i do think that certain person's followers are generally biased towards that person's opinion so yeah exactly and his hate is also going to be biased i'll just quote tweet it and encourage their followers to go and vote against him and but

moving away from the poll like his statement though of everything being priced in in my opinion makes sense like look at us we're talking about it almost every day now whether briefly or make it the focus of the show um we've seen the market pump after the coin telegraph news false news and since then hasn't corrected if anything it's just kept kept uh kept pumping and i i wouldn't be surprised if what peter saying, that the markets, and see what Chris and Simon think, but the markets have already priced it in. And when the news comes in, we might be disappointed, as Alliance Bernstein say, might be disappointed in the inflows coming in from the ETF. And we won't see that rally, that massive pump when the news comes in. It's already been priced in.

I'm not sure if, Chris, you believe in that thesis. That it's priced in? It's priced in, and we might be disappointed post-launch. In the short term, I see disappointment. I mean, you know, the hardest thing to say right now is anything opposite of what everybody else says right um but we look in there and at the end of the day i think the more important thing is whether it's uh priced in or not i mean you know this is a bull market which price is going to go up um did chris drop as well as i lost him i never know if it's me or someone else but

yeah i think so simon on the yeah you might yeah you're losing us yeah i think you're losing us chris simon your thoughts on this um you you have it's all been priced in i know you don't like talking short term but it'd be good to get your thoughts on it yeah no but i can talk about um things that we've seen in the past so you know there was not as much hype as this it's probably the maximum amount of hype but we've had many many moments when everyone's looking forward to something and um i still think that there's an element of is it going to be approved isn't isn't it going to be approved from a lot of money as opposed to us that are looking at this day in day out and think that it's on the the cusp so that there may it may not have everything priced in but it can certainly

have a massive um correction you know the launch of the futures markets uh was as hyped up as this um and they marked the top of the market i don't. I don't think that's this case because it's just in a different part of the cycle. But I could see a breaking 40,000 and then it actually happens and then there's an inevitable sell-off and then it goes into some kind of extended longer-term bull market as it takes about six to twelve months for the flows to really come in and really show the demand of this so i could see at least something like that happening yeah scott anything else to add no it's just one of those dry days we haven't heard from scott and

ryan so perhaps their quick opinions on the price action, and then we can probably wrap it up. Yeah. Scott, Ryan, you there, guys? Yeah, hey, guys, yeah. Ryan, we'd love your thoughts. Love to jump in. Yeah, I'm a bit wise.

Obviously, again, similar to what the other guys said, I can't comment on any particular application, but I do think that I would take the other end of this argument that I don't think that the Bitcoin ETF is priced in. I mean, I think the audience for Bitcoin ETF is largely not the audience on the spaces or even on crypto Twitter in general. Most of the people that follow crypto closely on Twitter and that would join a crypto town hall on a Monday morning at 1015 or 715 are not people that are going to access Bitcoin through an ETF. They're going to access it through a Coinbase account or directly on chain or what have you. And so we already have lots of exposure to Bitcoin

because their whole entire premise was kind of front running institutions on this, you know, once in a generation asset. And so I think that from that perspective, it's probably not priced in the audiences, really those are parents or grandparents or traditional financial advisors who are managing money on behalf of individuals who can't access Bitcoin on Coinbase or directly on chain and need an ETF wrapper in order for them to access it, whether it's compliance for the firm they're associated with or ease of use for them to be able to incorporate into all of their other reporting and portfolio management systems. It's just not easy when it's sitting on a different exchange and sitting on chain for them to do that. And there's all these custodial issues that they'd run into if they were to self-custody on behalf of clients from a compliance and risk perspective.

And so from that side of things, I don't believe the money will flow in day one. I do agree with that because I think it takes time for them to even come around to Bitcoin once an ETF is approved. So I don't think we'll see tons of flows in the first day or week. But one interesting nugget of information that I like to refer to is we run this survey of advisors every year on what they're waiting for to allocate to Bitcoin or to crypto. And if they think an ETF is going to be approved, and we just kind of started wrapping up our results for this year on these advisors that we surveyed.

And there's 61% of the respondents don't think it will happen in the next year. So they don't even think it's coming in the next six months like we all do, or in the next year and a half. Who's the survey for? This is for financial advisors uh institutional investors these are people that are managing money on behalf of clients and so these are wow we live they live in a completely different world i'm surprised i had no idea about this yeah but when was that when was that survey done uh over the past six weeks or so

well that's pretty significant. Sorry, Ryan, I'm going to go back to you. But James, why do you think that there's that diversion of opinion when it comes to when the ETF is going to get approved? They don't follow James. They don't follow as closely to this, right? This isn't something they are concerned with, for the most part, we've talked about this and why we like advisors right now, it's very hard to bring this type of asset management underneath their umbrella where they charge their fees. So it's kind of just like, something that they're like tangentially aware of, and they know it might be happening at some point, but they're not like worried about it,

you got to remember these guys, they're not going to be putting 50% of their client portfolios in these things. We're talking 1%, 3%, 5% allocations. These are really satellite portions of the portfolio that they would be allocating to. So it's not something they're going to be super on top of. They're much more concerned with keeping their clients happy and knowing what's going on and following different model portfolios that they've signed up for. So they're not as in tune. Ryan makes a good point. The audience for these types of products are not listening to this. This space is right now.

Yeah, but Ryan, on that point, Ryan, because I know it's the first point you made, but the audience that listen, there's enough liquidity in the market to price in events like this. So even if the audience is listening to our space and keeping up with the news, it's not the audience that will be investing in the ETF. They are the audience that will eventually price in the ETF news. They have certain expectations of the amount of inflows that will come in, pretty smart investors, sophisticated investors, and that's where it gets priced in. So I think the, unless I'm misunderstanding your argument, Ryan. Ryan Cragunen No, I think that's right. I think there's a lot of people that have tried to front run the spot Bitcoin ETF, but I also think that majority of the Bitcoin holders out there today, and this might be naive, but I think a lot of the investors in Bitcoin are at this point are

kind of long term holders and aren't eager to sell even upon a small amount of price appreciation. We're still 50% or so down from the highs of the last cycle. And those who have been in the space for a while have the thesis that this is a four year that we're going to be entering another three, four year cycle of a positive year. So if a spot Bitcoin ETF comes in the first year of that cycle, I just don't see a huge amount of sell pressure coming into the market. We saw how much excitement happened when that when that that coin tracker or whatever it was rumor hit the hit the press about an ETF being approved and the price shot up. It was 10 plus percent in a matter of minutes.

And I just think that we're kind of on the front side of that. Scott, what do you think? Yeah, I tend to agree. Nothing to add. No, not you, Scott. It's not all about you, Scott. Mr. Johnson, we'd love your opinion instead. You guys didn't hear me? Perfectly you, Scott. It's not all about you, Scott. Mr. Johnson, we'd love your opinion instead. You guys didn't hear me?

Perfectly fine, yeah. Yeah, perfect. Yeah, so I tend to agree with Ryan. I think if you look at the Grayscale discounts on the Trust, I mean, look, it's like 11%, 12% right now. If you discount back the fees, I mean, it's not predicting, you know, an approval in the next few months. I mean, so's not predicting, you know, an approval in the next few months. I mean, so that's indicative.

But I think also if you look at how the process played out for Biddo, I mean, you had, you know, rumors the Friday before they launched. And then there was like a week before they actually launched. And there was, you know, sizable price moves in that interim period. And if you try to like analogize to what we're looking at now, I mean, let's say we go with James's point and they approve possibly this week. In my view, you have probably at least a month in between and maybe even a couple where you have that interim period where people are preparing, anticipating and the likelihood of the launch happens. And, you know, I mean, if it's anything close to the frenzy that you saw between bid over rumors and launch, I mean, it's hard to deny that it's probably not entirely priced in. So it'll depend, I think, you know, how long that period is in between. And they are independent processes. So the longer this 19B4 approval process approval process takes you know if it goes to january then that period in between might be shorter um so it's it's kind of interesting that way but yeah

i kind of i have to agree with ryan and james on that cool scott uh melco i know some days it's just better to be a short show man oh well that's not short we did we just we did speak for 45 minutes here i don't call that short but yeah i think this is it there's nothing else to talk about so why why keep the show going we'll we'll be back tomorrow we'll see what else sorry about the dog we'll be back tomorrow guys and um same time sounds good take it bye