The Wolf Of All Streets - Solana Skyrockets, Should You Buy Altcoins? Bitcoin To Test $46,000?

Episode Date: January 30, 2024

Join James Seyffart, ETF Research Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, and John Wick, veteran options trader, as we discuss what's going on with the Bitcoin ETFs market, Bitcoin, Solana and altcoins.  James Seyffart: https://twitter.com/JSeyff John Wick: https://twitter.com/ZeroHedge_ ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEK DAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/   ►►OKX SIGN UP FOR AN OKX TRADING ACCOUNT THEN DEPOSIT & TRADE TO UNLOCK MYSTERY BOX REWARDS OF UP TO $60,000!  👉 https://www.okx.com/join/SCOTTMELKER  ►►TRADING ALPHA READY TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS? THE BEST TRADERS IN CRYPTO ARE RELYING ON THESE INDICATORS TO MAKE TRADES. USE CODE ‘2MONTHSOFF’ WHEN VISITING MY LINK.  👉 https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker   ►►THE DAILY CLOSE BRAND NEW NEWSLETTER! INSTITUTIONAL GRADE INDICATORS AND DATA DELIVERED DIRECTLY TO YOUR INBOX, EVERY DAY AT THE DAILY CLOSE. TRADE LIKE THE BIG BOYS. 👉 https://www.thedailyclose.io/   ►►NGRAVE This is the coldest hardware wallet in the world and the only one that I personally use. 👉https://www.ngrave.io/?sca_ref=4531319.pgXuTYJlYd ►►NORD VPN  GET EXCLUSIVE NORDVPN DEAL - 40% DISCOUNT! IT’S RISK-FREE WITH NORD’S 30-DAY MONEY-BACK GUARANTEE. PROTECT YOUR PRIVACY! 👉 https://nordvpn.com/WolfOfAllStreets   ►►COINROUTES TRADE SPOT & DERIVATIVES ACROSS CEFI AND DEFI USING YOUR OWN ACCOUNTS WITH THIS ADVANCED ALGORITHMIC PLATFORM. SAVE TONS OF MONEY ON TRADING FEES LIKE THE PROS! 👉 http://bit.ly/3ZXeYKd  Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://twitter.com/scottmelker   Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.io   Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe   Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c   #Bitcoin #Crypto #Solana The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

While the crypto world was screaming for much lower prices, Bitcoin has bounced and Solana is up roughly 30% since I panicked and basically market bought a week ago on this very show after we took a look at the chart. Is it time to start looking at all coins? Is Bitcoin going right back up to 46,000? And what's going on with the ETF? I know it's everybody's favorite topic, but it's important that we stay on top of it. So of course, if I'm going to stay on top of it. I bring on James Safer from Bloomberg to talk

about the flows, what's going on with the Ethereum spot ETF, what's going on with the marketing battle, what's going on with the Google ads. There are a lot of things going on in ETF world. And of course, after that, I've got John Wick coming on, looking at trading alpha and charts to help us decipher this market. It's going to be a massive show, guys. Let's go. What is up, everybody? I'm Scott Melker, also known as the Wolf of Wall Street. Before we get started, please subscribe to the channel. Hit that like button. Let's go. and you know my name. Maybe I need a new intro vibe. I don't know. Maybe I'll just go, that's dope. That's dope. That's dope. I don't know. I guess it gives you your thing. There's the guys who, I'm George. We're all George. That's cool. Everybody knows it. Maybe I just

need to stick with it. Guys, my brain, full ADHD today, if you can't tell, because that was probably the inner monologue coming through the mic on the outside. Let's talk about the market. Let's talk about spot ETFs. Let's talk about Solana skyrocketing. I've got everybody's favorite guests. You know, you guys love it. We've got James from Bloomberg. You've got no rest, man. You guys are still in the Kentucky Derby full speed, it seems. Yeah, I mean, I've definitely finally started to get some rest. I'm not I'm not staying up till midnight to update these charts anymore or do anything like that. News is we're not we don't have traditional media people coming out to me.

Ask mainstream media people asking me for numbers at like midnight because they want to write an article early in the morning. So I'm posting a little later in the mornings than I used to. I'm not super worried. But yeah, we're on top of it. We're watching it, obviously. And we've seen a bit of a turnaround here. We had 255 million net inflow yesterday. So that's the biggest net inflow since the first week of trading.

That's huge. Last week, we were talking about outflows, net outflows, right? So I guess break that down. I know I interrupted you, but does that mean less GBTC selling or does it mean more inflows into the other ones? It's both right now. I mean, so for the most part, both were going down, right? We were seeing less selling.

So we had this peak in GBTC selling that happened last week, but, started to tape off as the week went on. Right. But we also saw tapering off and buying of the new Bitcoin ETFs, the newborn nine, as we call them. But yesterday we had big days from both iShares and Fidelity. I bid an FBTC. We're both around $200 million in inflows.

So Grayscale saw 192 ish out yesterday. And each one of the, each one of BlackRock and Fidelity took in more money than Grayscale lost, which honestly, I thought we were going to see more money pouring out. I didn't think we'd see as much come in. So this is a little surprising to me, but it's a pretty sharp turn that again, we could see the exact opposite happen today. Yeah, today. Could this be at all a function of the delay? It's all the GBT sellers from last week are finally getting their cash and able to buy BlackRock and Fidelity this

week. Basically, it's only Tuesdays. Yeah. One of the things I wrote about a couple of weeks ago is like, look, there's going to be money that comes out of GBTC and some of it is not immediately going to be able to come back in. Some people have accounts where you wire money in and it's like the money hasn't settled, but you can buy if you want. We'll basically give you a line to credit. And I guess some accounts don't. So if you have to wait till your GBTC sales to settle, that's T plus two. So you have to wait two days before you can use that same capital to buy back in. So that could be part of it. I think for the most part, this is just net new buying. I think people are probably buying on momentum a little bit here as Bitcoin flew off the bottoms. We're over 43 right

now. Literally nothing is better marketing for Bitcoin than higher prices of Bitcoin or any market to be honest. But I always say that the price going up is what's going to make people excited about it, not the fact that they can get idiosyncratic risk in their portfolio, which we all like to tell them, you know. Hey, I mean, if you look at some advisors, definitely will be more care more about the idiosyncratic risk stuff. There's some there's some real nerdy advisors out there who like that. Everyone's like I heard people on spaces and podcasts yesterday saying like, yeah, no, my view is that I think this is going to dampen volatility because advisors, they work in spreadsheets, they work in these models. And if they decide they're going to put Bitcoin in, it's going to be at a set allocation and they're going to sell or buy. People are like, no, no, no, everyone is human and rational and buys on momentum and sells on momentum.

That is not how a lot of the traditional financial world. That's why people pay these advisors a lot of money, because they act without emotion when they're doing these things. So I don't think we're going to see as much of that in the ETF world. But I think they're going to be very interested in the idiosyncratic nature we've seen so far with Bitcoin in its history. Yeah. Traditional investors don't let something that they want to be 2% of their portfolio

become 20% of their portfolio. Exactly. I mean, it's exactly what everybody criticizes Cathie Wood for selling Coinbase stock or selling any of these things. They became too overweighted. She has to reweight. That's what you do. You literally decide your portfolio allocation and you manage around that. That is what is going to happen. But the good news is they got to get in first before they're going to be able to sell when it goes up to reallocate. Yep, exactly. Yeah. So listen, I've got a little dashboard here just to give people an idea of what's going on with ETFs. This might be slightly off, but iBit, which is BlackRock at

2.46 billion, I'm seeing AUM. Now Fidelity over 2 billion as well, right? GBTC down to about 21. And then we even have ARK and BITB bitwise at 600 million. I mean, all of these are monster ETFs for only being a few weeks old. Am I wrong? I mean, monster ETFs. Yeah. For being a few weeks old, these are extremely successful. I mean, you can include Invesco Galaxy, BTCO, Bannex, Holdl, Valkyries, Burr, and they're all over 100 million. I mean, those are all successful ETF launches if you're talking about a couple weeks in, right? No matter how you slice it, those are successful launches. Granted, right now they have a 0% fee, so these people aren't making any money on them right now for almost all of them.

But yeah, no, they are successful launches by any traditional metric. So I think a lot of people had these massive hyped expectations around what this is going to look like. And I guess I don't think no matter what the ETFs did, unless they sent the price to 100,000, people would have been saying it was a disappointment. But from my point of view, looking at ETFs and how ETFs normally operate, this was an absolute smashing success. We have a comment here, Scott. Now we have to worry about rebalancing sell-offs. Come on, man. That's not what I'm saying. I'm just saying it's going to dampen volatility when you know that people are going to rebalance when price goes up. I'm not saying it sends price down. I'm saying it might limit how fast price goes up when we get to more traditional market. It will do the opposite,

too. It will probably limit how fast price goes down in some regards. Granted, these things usually like they'll rebalance quarterly. Some might do it monthly, but for the most part, it's like a quarterly thing. So if price is collapsing and their 5% allocation is now down to 2% allocation, do you know what they're going to be doing? They're going to be net buyers. They're going to be bringing that allocation back up to 5%. 100%. So listen, we know now what the AUM is. We can assume that GBTC hopefully is slowing on the sell-off. Like you said, that could spike any day. Never know. But for now, the trend is in the right direction. Now we need to talk about the future and what happens, right?

Because we've had the idea that we're going to see this massive marketing campaign. Well, Google Ads finally changed their policy. We knew it was coming to allow for marketing of these ETFs. And it took about 13 seconds for VanEck, Franklin Templeton, and BlackRock to be right at the top of your Google search for anyone who didn't see this. If you search, you get the sponsored ad. So they were waiting in the wings. This policy, let's be honest, was changed for them. Google started talking about changing this policy before these were even approved, knowing that they were coming. And now we're seeing the marketing war begin, at least on Google ads. We already talked about the commercials. I mean, this is huge. I don't know how you can understate the fact that all of these companies are spending millions and millions of dollars to market Bitcoin. Yeah. I mean, there is no other way to slice it. And also, they're battling with each other to do it. So they're spending a lot of money to basically market the asset that people listening to the show are likely holding a significant chunk of

their net worth in, right? So I don't know how anyone can say it's a bad thing. I mean, I saw my first... So I listened to Bloomberg TV in my ear, most chunk of the day, like that's what I do. Podcasts, you name it. But for the most part, if I'm not really trying to pinch it, I have Bloomberg in my ear. And I heard my first VanEck's Bitcoin ETF hodl commercial and I turned it on. I just watched the commercial. You go into the airport. I mean, this has been the case for months, but you go into the airports and GBTC commercials are everywhere. So I'm in St. Louis right now. So I flew a couple of days ago and I was just like, man, this is everywhere. Every single screen just has GBTC up there. I'm like, this is wild.

Insane. It's insane. And I mean, it's literally like Coke and Pepsi level of- Yeah. They're spending a lot of money. It blows my mind that they're spending so much money and effectively going to get no inflows. Maybe there are a lot of people actually out there who see it and just buy and aren't aware of the fees. Maybe there's an echo chamber thing and they are the biggest and people see that. Maybe they do have a lot of inflow that we're just kind of not seeing because the selling pressure is still there. I'll take the other side. I'll play devil's advocate here. Because I think a lot of people in this echo chamber that would be listening to this or that are on crypto Twitter are just like 1.5%. I can't believe this. I'm getting out and switching. There are definitely

a lot of people who just bought this thing because they wanted exposure to Bitcoin and have no idea, probably don't even know it converted to an ETF, have no idea probably how an expense ratio even works. We see this all the time with ETFs. ETFs, they get huge, they get a lot of assets, and then they lose favor, and then a bunch of money pours out. But there's still like 50% of the assets in some of these things just are there forever. They become trading vehicles, people use them for short term things, people stays. And then also, we don't know how much like those, we don't know what that marketing is doing. Like you said, maybe there's somebody in the airport that's like, yeah, I should buy Bitcoin. And then they see GBDC and just click buy. And it's offsetting some of the outflows that we're seeing.

So, yeah, I my estimate was 25 percent. I thought GBDC would lose 25 percent before we saw the 1.5% fee. I guess I'll up that now to maybe a third of the shares will leave, but we're only around 19, 20% so far and it's slowing pretty heavily. So we'll see where it stops. Yeah. And so we obviously know, like you're saying now, you're seeing actual commercials on TV. So we've got that. I'm wondering if we're going to start seeing Super Bowl ads in two weeks or anything like that, but that didn't go that well for us last time, to be quite honest. But the other way that these guys are battling still is this fee war, right? So ETF rates heats up as Invesco and Galaxy Slash fee, they were at 0.39%, I guess, just too high to compete, down to 0.25% already. So the fee war is still going on even after the launch is here, repositioning and trying to jockey for attention here. I mean, this is crazy. I'm not an ETF guy, but

we've never seen anything like this. Luke Gromen Yeah. I mean, the ETF, the fee war is something we constantly talk about in the ETF world, and it usually plays out over years, right? Somebody undercuts by a basis point or two, and then they start taking in more flows than a competitor and their competitors forced to cut there as well. We see billions of dollars move in these traditional financial ETFs, like whether it's a S&P 500 ETF or an aggregate bond ETF, that'll move because one thing is one basis point less than the other. So we saw basically years of fee battling happen in little days, weeks even, right before these things launched. And the one thing I would say is

I know why Invesco is doing this and Galaxy are doing this. They probably had people they have relationships with that told them they would buy the fund. And they're like, I know you're at 0%, but after that, I have these other options that are only going to be at 19, 20 bips, 25 bips. Like I can't justify paying 15 bps more after this six month period. And they're just like, all right, I guess we just have to cut the fee because otherwise we're not going to get these clients in. So I'm guessing that's what happened. They want to be competitive. So we'll see how it plays out for them. But again, no matter how you slice it, yes, they're not at the top of the table here for getting inflows, but they are doing very well as a newborn ETF. So there's a lot of

success happening here across the board. Alchemist says, Matt Damon in an astronaut suit buying meme coins ad and Bobby ads on Mars. You think we can get that? What's the over under of Matt Damon coming back in and doing Be Bold or whatever that was that last campaign? I don't know, man. I don't think I think that's when we sell. Yeah, I don't think I don't think you want to see a Bitcoin ad probably in the Super Bowl. I don't want to say, yeah. Hard pass.

You'd rather see these ads like in between Antiques Roadshow or like the Weather Channel or something like that. And in the deep pages of the Wall Street Journal. Exactly. So listen, we talk about these constantly in the United States. I think we know that they already existed in Canada. It didn't matter to the United States market, but these were huge actually relatively in Canada, South America, parts of Europe. Now the big conversation is what's going to happen in Hong Kong. So I don't think people realize maybe in the United States that just

because BlackRock launches a spot Bitcoin ETF in the US doesn't mean that anyone can buy it outside the US. These markets largely need their own products. Yeah. So ironically, one of the things like the US doesn't really export all that much, right? They don't send that much abroad. One thing we do export is liquidity. So if you're an institution, for the most part, you're probably using the US market to get access to whatever ETFs you want to use. For the most part, it's not always the case, but many institutions will be using the US ETF landscape because we have so much liquidity with the most part, it's not always the case, but many institutions will be using the U.S. ETF landscape because we have so much liquidity with the most efficient capital markets, yada, yada, yada. That said, for any normal person, they can't just buy these ETFs. Like if you're in Hong Kong, you can't do it for the most part.

Just like we can't buy ETFs listed in Hong Kong or for the most part ETFs listed even in Canada, which, by the way, we were talking about flows earlier. European crypto funds, Bitcoin predominantly saw 130 million out and Canada saw 300 million out over so far this month. So a lot of that money is coming here too, which it shows you what I'm talking about. We export liquidity. So that said, we have an analyst on our team who's based in Hong Kong. She used to be a trader. She used to trade ETFs down in Australia and in Hong Kong. And so she was saying that Hong Kong was getting an ETF before the US and I was like, you better get it out before Jan 10 because that's when we're getting

it. But they announced in late December that basically, yes, we're ready to accept applications for these pop Bitcoin ETFs. So it sounds like it's going to happen the next couple of months, which will be big. As you said, that these people in Europe, in Asia, this is the way they're going to use. She wrote a note a couple of years ago saying that she thought Hong Kong was going to be the crypto center of the East because they were eventually... And then we had a bit of hiccups trying to kind of backtrack on some of that, but she still is in that camp ultimately that Hong Kong will be the financial center for crypto and connecting the DeFi and TradFi rails. I feel like Singapore is listening right now and they're going to be like, hold my beer. Yeah. I'm not going to let Hong Kong take that. We know, obviously, that

there's sort of these hubs all over the world. But I think in general now with the United States approving these, we're going to start to see applications all over the world where they don't exist. I mean, is that a fair assumption, do you think? I think so. Yeah. I mean, we had them in Australia, actually, a couple of years ago was the first time we had spot Bitcoin ETFs and they just did nothing there. So it was like, oh, maybe Australia is going to take the lead here on these ETFs. but no, that's not what happened. So you talked about the outflows from the Canadian ETF. I think a lot of people, myself included to some degrees, have been surprised at the general outflows from crypto-related funds that are not the spot ETFs. And also the major sort of downside we saw in the first two weeks of these trading

from any crypto-adjacent stocks. MicroStrategy went down, Coinbase went down, miners got absolutely destroyed. The only premise I can give for that is that people said, okay, I was holding this to have exposure to Bitcoin and I have a better way to have exposure to Bitcoin. So maybe that was also part of this temporary bloodbath alongside the GBTC type thing and it'll sort of recalibrate. But I think a lot of people just moved into the ETFs. I think that was it. And I think there's also a lot of people that don't really care about long-term Bitcoin exposure. So they were just betting on the Bitcoin ETF. I talk to clients on the Bloomberg terminal all the time who like, they aren't like Bitcoin bulls or super

interested in Bitcoin itself, but they saw this as a trade because we and others were so confident it was going to happen. So they just went long anything that had beta exposure to the price of Bitcoin. So people just basically unwound those trades. We saw that with CME Bitcoin futures. I mean, that thing is down at a peak. It had an open interest of $6.35 billion. And right now it's at 4.5. So it's almost 2 billion down. 21,000 Bitcoin is gone. So that's another area where we saw outflows, which undoubtedly that was traditional financial players that were basically long this thing going into the ETF approval. And some of that is Biddo outflows, the Bitcoin futures ETF that left and went into these other spot ETFs, much of it.

But some of it was, like I said, these traditional financial players that don't necessarily want super long-term exposure to Bitcoin. They viewed this as a special situation investment, short term trade. So one of the bigger surprises, the minute these got approved and the minute they got fake approved the day before, everyone remember, was that Ethereum pumped. Right. So we didn't really see Bitcoin price go up massively. We saw Ethereum price go up massively, which I think everyone says the second the Bitcoin spot narrative ETF narrative died, they were approved. Time to start talking about an Ethereum spot ETF. But the SEC clearly saying not quite yet. We did have Hester Peirce come out and say that it's not going to take a lawsuit. Now, we don't want to be arbitrary and capricious, but we also know that she's not Gary Gensler and doesn't speak for the SEC in general. But the SEC delayed decisions on Grayscale BlackRock spot Ethereum ETFs. That's what we basically have seen here. That's what's going on. Can you give us a timeline of what to expect and where you guys are now handicapping the Ethereum spot ETF? Yeah, we haven't put out an official number. We're over 50%. I've seen others like JP

Morgan and some other people said they're below 50% essentially. And I'll just give you my base case and my base assumption. I kind of am with Esther first. I just think the path of least resistance, and I've said this on your show before, I view the SEC kind of veering and pivoting away from fighting Ethereum and Bitcoin on this front, and they're going to go basically wage war on the rest of crypto. So I think the path of least resistance here is just to approve these things. The dates to watch are VanEck is May 23rd. That's their final deadline. That's the equivalent of ARK and 21 shares January 10th,

which is the first final deadline. So that's the date I'm really watching. That said, I am nowhere near as confident as we were with the Bitcoin ETFs. I'm probably around 60% because like I said- We don't have a lawsuit. Yeah, there's no lawsuit. We don't have a lawsuit. The CME Ethereum market is way smaller. There's way less volume. There's way less open interest. So the SEC could kind of draw distinctions there. They could try to draw distinctions with the proof of stake versus proof of work. There's a lot of avenues they can go to kind of kick this can down the road further. My base case, like I said, probably

around 60, 65% range is I think they get approved. We'll have more, we'll know more in the coming months if the, depending on what filings we see, what the SEC says to these issuers. But there's the confidence, there's too many things up in the air here right now, right? So like I said, I think the path of least resistance is just to approve these things and get them in a regulated wrapper, allow ETE to convert to an ETF. That said, the flip side is Gary can just wait till a court forces him. My return to that would be, do you think he wants to go to a court in front of the same judge at the same court and be told virtually the same thing, which is indeed likely or possible to happen? That just is not something I would want to deal with if I'm a politician. So that's the way I look at it, but there's a lot to still be done. Great use of taxpayer money. Just a great use of

taxpayer money. Send the SEC back to court to lose again to the crypto industry. So we're talking about potentially four months, but we can all assume that it's only happening if Gary feels like he's forced to do it. Right. I mean, there's no like a willful compliance here. Yeah, that's my, yeah, that's my base case. I mean, he doesn't even have to be forced. Like I said, I view the SEC as kind of pivoting away from ETH and Bitcoin. I don't think the SEC is going to come out and claim Ethereum is a security. If they do that, they will be fighting not only the DeFi industry, they will be going against the CFTC as well. They would have to delist CME Ethereum futures. They would have to possibly delist the Ethereum futures ETFs, which they went out and approved in October of last year.

So there's a lot of things that I just don't think are going to happen, but he might find a way to just kick this can down the road another year or a few months or what have you. So I wouldn't be shocked either way at this point. Whereas when I was talking to you in December, I was basically like, I would be absolutely shocked if they deny these things. So when Solana ETF? That's not going to happen anytime soon. I repeat most the number one question I get now is Ripple. Everyone's asking me about Ripple and there's the XRP army is a little bit crazy.

I'll stop. No, no, no. But guys, the courts could literally the Supreme Court could literally say that XRP is not a security, and you still aren't getting an ETF because there is no regulated market. With Bitcoin, it was the same. That's right. You have the same futures for both Ethereum and Bitcoin. What regulated market do you have for XRP? It wasn't even listed on Coinbase. Yeah, you have nothing.

You have nothing. So, I mean, that could change, obviously. But right now, even if we had a Supreme Court ruling right now, as far as I'm concerned, you wouldn't be able to get an ETF through the SEC. And where would the demand be? I mean, we were all excited, I guess, in theory, because it was a stepping stone, the Ethereum futures ETF. But they, I mean, talk about a flat launch. Oh, my God. Nothing. I had low expectations. So Eric, Eric had relatively low expectations. And we were arguing because I was even lower than him. And then it was even it was less than half of my expectations. So it was it was a it was a flop. I think there's a few things for that one.

You look at the traditional financial world and it's very easy to talk about digital gold. There's a good narrative for Bitcoin. People just look at crypto and they think Bitcoin in many cases. They don't understand the nuances and difference between Ethereum and Bitcoin. And so talking about Ethereum is a little more abstract to them. So that's part of it. The other part of it is it's a futures ETF. Advisors, the people that are going to hold these things long term, they don't like futures ETFs. There's a reason Biddo did really well out the gate and then never got more assets because people don't want to hold ETFs that roll futures. Look, the Bitcoin futures ETF underperformed spot by 16% in 2023. So yes, the Ethereum futures ETFs are probably good trading vehicles, not going to be the best for long-term type exposure. And I think people are expecting to see

an Ethereum ETF launch possibly in 2024. So I'll just wait. Why do I need to buy this Ethereum futures ETF? So I think all three of those things are probably playing a role here. Perfect, man. Well, thank you so much for your time. Is there anything I missed? By the way, I know we got like two minutes. Is there anything I missed that I should have asked you about, anything that should be on people's radar? No is an acceptable answer, by the way. I mean, the one thing I'm watching is, so when we started, GBDC was more than half of the volume across all the spot Bitcoin ETFs. So GBDC plus the Newborn Nine, it was over 50% was going to GBDC, which was probably a lot of like arbing and selling of GBDC itself and buying in these other

ETFs. That number is steadily going down. So now we're seeing things where iBit was for a while yesterday was trading more than GBTC itself. So there was a bunch of things here. Awesome, man. Well, thank you for keeping us all grounded and reminding us that these are actually successful and to stop bitching about everything

because that's what our community does. We just cry about everything. Say it was a failure. It was bad that everybody was against us. These are great. They're doing well, and they're only going to get better in my humble opinion. And so once again, appreciate you coming on and discussing these. I'm sure you've got other shows to go talk about this on. I'm looking forward to you guys getting really busy in Ethereum spot ETF season. I'm not going to lie. Yeah, we'll get there. I would echo just what you said. Just relax, everybody. It'll take time. I've been saying it from the get-go. Just give it a few weeks to a month and we'll see how these

things start to shake out. It's going to take time. And these platforms, they're where the real money is, which that's one thing you asked if we didn't talk about it, where the real money is, these wirehouses, these brokerage platforms where advisors are buying these things, they aren't yet ready to approve these things. Yeah, you can't do it yet. So this money is not from even where most of the money is.

So it remains to be seen if those types of advisors and brokers really want to put this in their client accounts. We'll find out. But there is no way to buy it right now in most cases. So it's going to take so little though.

Like we don't need them to come in with hundreds of billions of dollars. It's another billion here, another billion there, over a month here, a month there. These things are just going to grow rapidly. There's no reason to think that we're going to see outflows anytime soon. So absolutely. All right, man. James, thank you, guys. Follow James, please.

You don't have to wait for him to be on this show to get the constant updates on what's going on in ETF land. I literally have alerts on for your tweets, which is like one of three people. So that's really impressive. Yeah, there you go. All right, man. James Averitt, ladies and gentlemen. Thanks, buddy. Have a great day. Thanks, guys. Well, I did ask about a Solana ETF, kind of half sarcastically, but if we're talking about price, we know that Bitcoin is back above 43,000. It bottomed around 38,600 when I showed you guys that there was bullish divergence with oversold RSI on the four-hour chart. We were likely to bounce and we did. And now we have Solana AVAX lead crypto market recovery. Bitcoin tops 50-day average before

meeting. We're going to talk about all of this now. It's been a while since we've gotten together. We got Wick here to discuss the market. What's up, buddy? How are you? Hey, Scott. Doing well, man. Doing good. I took a little break last week. As you know, I had some troubles at the office, but it's nice to be back now, especially that crypto is having a little bit of a bounce. Yeah, you took the perfect time off. I know, right? You took off the retracement and you showed backup when things were looking good. What are you looking at right now? I'm going to go up, go ahead and bring up your screen.

I think we always kind of start with Bitcoin and go from there. Yeah, absolutely. So let me enlarge Bitcoin here. So this is just the weekly chart. Again, I like to do this just to give people perspective and bring them back to kind of where we are, right? If ever you're in fear and the charts are too volatile for you, simply just go back to the weekly. So that said, let's see where we are on the weekly chart of Bitcoin. So of course, this was the bear market. We are below the track line, which is bearish. We have red dots, which is micro trend bearish bars, macro trend bearish. We go through this bear

market. We start hitting some bottom signals, breakout on green dots. This is your stage two. If, uh, for those of you that are new following me, I'm all about catching stage twos. Okay. That's your stage two uptrend, uh, in cycle analysis. We go to the stage two, we go into some consolidation. We then get a breakout arrow, your parabolic stage two. Now what's interesting about parabolic stage twos. And I've been telling everyone this for me, it's very easy. Whenever an asset goes parabolic, I simply just watch the green dots on the weekly and it's as simple as that. Right? So as you can see, it's kept the green dots the whole time and we've had no worries. We had a little bit of a correction here. And, um, Scott, when I was on your show before I talked about possibly seeing a 30% correction before the having, which is this right here. And this might've been it, right? We'll have to see and

wait and see if we get another correction or not, but we're having a really great reaction off that correction. And as you can see, we are above the track line holding green dots. So I'm still very bullish on Bitcoin. I never stopped being bullish. And yeah, I'm glad to see we're out of that retracement, out of that correction. I've literally been watching it on the daily, on Trading Alpha, obviously, which is just what I do now. I've been sharing it. I even shared it on Twitter and the newsletter. But yesterday I was kind of watching the daily and waiting for a green dot, right? Because we had broken back above the track line. I shared that and I said, you know, no more red dots. We're back above the track line, but we did finally get the green dot back on the daily yesterday. So now we're green

dots literally weekly all the way down every time. The system works, man. So last time I'll show this, you go parabolic here here if you check what happened last time we got a breakout error on green dots going parabolic it was right here right and as you can see as long as you follow those green dots right even when they have a little bit of consolidation like we had right now a little bit of a correction um you know they usually keep it pretty well let's move to the next asset so i know everyone was talking about real quick before you go on bobby asked what chart indicators are those? These, this is trading alpha. They are his indicators. Uh, I use them as well. And it's down in the description if you want more information,

go ahead. Yeah. For those that don't know, I've been trading since I was about 21 years old. Uh, for those that don't know my age, that's very long. And these are my customized indicators. Um, I love them. And if anyone wants to hear more about them, you can go check them out in the comments section. Go to our website. And I'm sure we'll have a sale coming up here soon. We don't have one because we just had one about a month ago. But yeah, trading alpha indicators. Let's go and check out Ethereum.

Yeah. First of all, let's check out iBid. Okay. So this is very interesting to me. So iBid is really cool. this is very interesting to me. So iBid is really cool. Um, there's the BlackRock ETF guys. There's the BlackRock ETF. So as you can say, see, as we open with the BlackRock ETF, it was just a pool of blood. We started hitting some bottom signals, right? As you guys know, I look for ones that kind of look like a double bottom.

We've got a little double bottom here. After you get your double bottom signal, it's pretty simple. You wait for a green dot for confirmation, baby, and that's it. So you get our bottom is here and you can see it's within the structure. You got your stage four downtrend. You go into your stage one sideways basing pattern, waiting for that stage two breakout, right? Like I always talk about, like I'm trying to catch. So I was starting to pay attention here.

Boom. We got our first green dot on a breakout arrow. It's been up ever since. And this ETF is finally looking good. And I mentioned when the ETF came out, Scott, that I think we're going to have a really good reaction from it. But I think it's going to take a month or even a couple months to kind of get everyone kind of positioned right. And I'm glad we're kind of seeing that now, but I did call this on Twitter when we had this breakout hour. So for those of you that don't follow me, and if you don't have our indicators, know that I give these setups all the time. So iBid is finally looking good. Now, if we switch to Ethereum, which is one of the more interesting

charts for me, not because the chart looks great, but because of the background, the backdrop that we have, right, of that Ethereum ETF, which I think is definitely next up on the chopping block. And you can see what Ethereum has done, right? It's interesting to look at the price action relative to all the emotions. So what we're doing here is we're doing bullish consolidation right below a resistant zone. And Scott, to be honest with you, I'm actually very shocked that retail hasn't taken us higher. I mean, we know what the layup is. It's coming. You and I know it. We've been waiting for this for quite a while, right? We were talking about this when we had bottom signals over here. But yeah, as soon as we start getting news of that

ETF, this thing is going to do the same thing that bitcoin did it's going to go up until the etf uh uh approval i think in my opinion what do you think scott i i 100 100 agree but then i open the the chart for eth btc right because eth usd does look great to me but you open eth btc you got red dots on the weekly below the track line you go to the daily nothing but red dots below the track line. You go to the daily, nothing but red dots below the track line. You even go down to like a four-hour absolute slaughterhouse. I've been thinking that ETHBTC is going to reverse for ages here. It had reversed off these lows, my other charting style, of course. But I did say this is the resistance you're watching,

and it got squarely rejected there. And RSI is coming back for the retest. So I think ETHBTC is bottoming here personally again. Yeah. Until it breaks out, it's kind of hard to trust it. But the chart is normal. It just hasn't happened yet. Right.

And I personally think it's important to be in ETH before this happens and have some exposure. But a lot of people are going to wait, obviously, until it's beating Bitcoin back. That's how it always works, right? I agree with you, Scott. I think that ETHPTC chart is going to turn around very quick. I don't think a lot of people are going to have a chance to really catch what's happening because it just takes one announcement for that ETF, right? One little news event that the market likes to break through this resistance and then we we're gone. So, so yeah, sleeping giants as we've been calling it, love it. What a perfect time to transition to Solana, which you guys have been talking about all morning. So let's start on the daily chart and

then we'll go to the weekly chart. So this has been, you know, I'm not even going to say one of my favorite positions now anymore. It's been my favorite position. It's been my biggest position. This is the daily chart. As you can see above the track line, green dots, we get some strength arrows, not to be confused with the actual breakout arrow, which is greener. And we go into our stage two. Once we go into our stage two, we go basing stage three above this line. We'll be breaking out into stage two again, right? It's all just about catching stage two is it's the easiest thing to do. Once the green dots go above the track line and they go parabolic is just stay with the green dots. So where are we now? Since we had such a great performance in, uh, Solano, we did have a really nice pullback. We actually did get some red macro bars, which I actually

wanted to see because what I'm doing is I'm actually watching this and following my position on the weekly, but it's nice to get a pulse check on this daily. And where are we now? We're getting a really nice bounce. I like to pull up the weekly chart because this is the actual thing that I focus on. I don't really take any cues from the daily chart anymore on Solana specifically because it's so volatile, Scott. But look at this again, right?

We go into our stage one basing, break out into stage volatile, Scott. But look at this again, right? We go into our stage one basing, breakout into stage two, Scott, goes parabolic. What do we do? We follow the green dots. The price is above this green track line. We got that check. We got green dots. That's your second check. Green bars, that's your third check. Starts going parabolic here. I got everyone in here in this stage two breakout, part one, stage two breakout, part two, you just hold the dots. That's what you do. And right now we're still sitting on green dots. Even that big correction didn't fake you out with these. And that's why I love this, um, this plate whenever it goes parabolic. So a lot of them looks great. I think it won't be, but maybe a couple of weeks now until we actually break

these highs in my opinion. And of course, you can see here, I mean, we've still got a very long way to go, even to meet the all-time highs, which I think we're going to completely blast through with Solana in this bull market, Scott. Yeah, it was pretty funny. You weren't here. So actually, like last Tuesday, I totally spontaneously said, oh, he's not coming. Let me look at some charts. And so I opened Solana. I had this zone, this blue zone right here, slightly lower, something like this. Then I said, wait, you know what?

I'm going to adjust it for this little wick right here. Price was touching it. I have been talking about bidding 75 to 77, but that's like 80. I only got 25% of my position filled, if I'm being honest, but it would have been nothing. And I literally just market bought right there, 25% of my position, about $80, $81,

because I saw that. So I was already seeing that line up at that bottom. When I saw that starting to form, we were at support. And now you got the break back above the 50 MA also on the daily, and you have the break of this resistance and retest and support and now you got the break back above the 50 ma also on the daily and you have the break of this resistance and retest and support and heading up and i think actually on uh on trading alpha you've got a squeeze as well you know yes yes so these squeezes what dude this is a lot of bullishness no it's it's it's 100 bullish and what scott's talking about is when you have this track line and you have green dots a lot of times what will happen in a healthy market on a healthy asset is you'll actually have the pullback come and try and touch that green track line and bounce off of it,

right? Sometimes what happens, and I actually measure what I call relative strength like this, is when it can't even touch the green line, the track line, right? Which is what we see here with Solana because it's the strongest asset in the market, right? So we go up, we pull back, we can't even touch this track line for a bounce. But I think that's what Scott's talking about. A lot of times when we do have these corrections, yeah, if we get a good reaction off of the track line, it's a great time to buy, a great time to average in more of your position. So for those of you that like DCA, that's also a really great move, but you got to be careful because if an asset is way too strong, you won't even get that retest, right? And that's what we've been seeing with Salon at

last cycle. And it's kind of what we're starting to see now. Absolutely, Scott. So really cool. Hey, can I ask you something? Just back to Bitcoin really quick. I know that that wasn't the plan, but okay. So I have the weekly here. Obviously we hit the golden pocket and dropped. This was Savage price action, the wick up and the wick down. But now we have this sort of weekly hammer and reversal looking here. That was a perfect touch of support as well, kind of like Solana did. Ethereum did the same thing in a key area. And now the daily is back above the 50 MA, which I think is kind of huge personally, because it hadn't been below it since 26,000. Right.

So we had the big day yesterday where you got the green dot. I mean, do you think in your mind, on a daily chart, Scott, what are you looking at? This was daily. These were weekly, sorry, weekly, weekly, and then daily back above the 50 MA. I mean, do you think that with all these signals and trading alpha going green again there on the daily with the green dot that we can confidently say for now the bottom's probably in yeah no look um that bottom that bottom is definitely and for the correction that i was waiting for okay if you're just going to ask my opinion and opinions come and go as they do right a hundred percent in my opinion when when i saw this uh take that and flip back up, this right here is a sign of strength,

right? You're actually getting a sign of strength that's flipping. So in my opinion, yeah, 100%, it would be a very good bet, a high probability, let's say, that this did put in the low for this correction. I think so too. Didn't want to get past Bitcoin without asking that question. All right. So we took some requests too. So what else have we got i think i see lincoln ftm up there which i saw in the requests a bunch of times guys every tuesday right before the stream or monday night we did before the stream we asked for requests on on uh twitter x and john takes the ones he likes the best and and brings them up so that's how we got these there you go so uh no so from Solana, but what I want to point out is this. Okay. So we do have two of these requests here. Um, and it's obviously this person, um, is trying to

figure out what to do on this one here and the same thing on FTM, right? Because FTM has actually lost green dots here. And it brings up a good chance for me to kind of, uh, just help educate some of the members that do have the indicators here. So when you see something like this, you can see that losing the green dots, this does not have a lot of strength. The market has rebounded the last couple of days and you've seen nothing here, right? So this is telling you that FTM really has weak relative strength. I mean, look how long it has been without the dots. Once it got the bottom signals, green dots broke out looking great. So when you see something like this guys on the weekly chart, it might be a better to, you know, if you're in this position,

I don't want to give any advice, but you know, I like to rotate into assets that are in stage twos, right? I don't like to cry and, and, and, and just sit in this while it's not doing anything. I like to get out of this and make sure that my money's working for me. So I wouldn't get into a chart like that. When you compare it to something like link, you see how many green dots link has. It lost it maybe once right there, but it's kept it for the majority of the time while it's doing this bullish consolidation. So I actually like link a lot better than I like FTM. Okay. Because you can see the relative strength is on link side. It seemed that it seems like link is obviously just waiting, waiting. We've got a little resistance zone here and it's just waiting for the market to pick up to break out here.

So whoever asked for Link, I think Link looks great. I think this is bullish consolidation, easily seen by the green dots that aren't stopping that much. Again, when you compare it to FTM, it's pretty obvious. So yeah, that's what I think. I love Link. I'm not a fan of FTM. Yeah, it's funny. I have a link chart just happened to be pulled up. And that same resistance still pulls back to sort of the highs here. But that's all the way back to March of 22.

And you can see that we're struggling. Exact same idea, but above the 200 MA, above the 50 MA. And Link, talking about stage one and stage two i mean this base from june maybe even say here may of 22 until it finally broke out in october of 23 we were talking about this the whole time i mean this was like the mother of all consolidation yeah no absolutely you know if i can actually shed a little bit more light here i can talk ta for days so um this here, okay. So this stage one basing that Scott's talking about, obviously went on for very long. Each one of these bars is an entire week.

Okay. And this is a very good point to one of the lessons that I give a lot of people. A lot of times my discord in the past, I've given this, but the OGs of crypto, right? If you were here in 17 or before that, what they like to do is they like to find these basing patterns after you've had a bear market, right? And then they just buy the basing pattern and they simply just wait until it breaks out. Okay. That's been a strategy for many of the OGs. They love this and I absolutely hate this strategy. Okay. And let me tell you why. Let me

shed some light on if any of you guys are doing this and just holding all this time on assets that are basing. Why don't I like that? If there's going to come a stage two afterwards that we always love to catch, why don't I just buy it in the stage one, John, and just wait, right? It's simple. I'll tell you why. Because stage one basings can go on for days, weeks, months. I've even seen them go on for years. So what happens is you're stuck in here. This is basing for so long. You see other assets that are breaking out into stage twos. Eventually, a lot of times what happens is the person gets so sick of waiting, they get out of this position, they get into the stage too late, and then they're stuck in a stage three that might break down into a stage four. So you completely ruin it by trying to wait in this too long.

I think it's opportunity cost waiting in these stage one basings. I think it's much more simple to identify. Look at that. Look if you had bought that in September of 22, you would have sat in it for over a year and it already looked like it had been consolidating. And you would have dealt with up to $9 or $10 and down to $5, which is still major volatility in that base. Brutal. Brutal. Absolutely brutal. And yeah, absolutely, Scott. So this is why this was actually a perfect chart for me to bring up that point. If you're buying stage one basings, guys, rethink that because if you can identify stage one basing enough to buy it, then you can identify it

enough to wait for that stage two breakout and just buy the breakout, right? You'll get a little bit of fake outs here, like you did here, here, and here. I mean, I'm just going to say it. If you have our indicators, they break out on green. So, um, yes, Scott, absolutely. So is there anything else you want to check out Scott? Any charts, any other charts? Uh, can you look at AVAX? Cause that was in that title having outperformed and I haven't looked at it. So if you have one, I'm going to pull it up myself. Let's do it. And let's automatically jump to a weekly chart just to get clarity.

Okay. So here we are, right? We go through this stage four bearish bear market. We're under the track line. Now guys, again, it's this, this stuff that, you know, that, that I've made here, my work, it doesn't just work for breaking out. It also works for keeping your money, not losing your ass. So as you can see here, as long as this price action in bear markets, if we've identified the stage two, stage three, stage four,

once it goes below this track line, you do not buy this at all, especially when it's red. But just being below the track line in the bear market, you just don't buy this at all, right? Especially when it's red, but just being a blow the track line in the bear market, you just don't buy this at all. It's all red, all red, all red. You start to get your stage one basing. You can then go ahead and actually draw and define that stage one basing as being right there. Okay. So there's your basing. We have a little deviation out of the basing, which happens a lot of the time before we break out. In fact, when I define my stage one basings, a lot of the time when it starts to kind of deviate underneath, I start to think to myself, okay, is that what we need for the leg up? And sure enough, right? We're above and below the track line. We actually want to see that in a stage one basing. It's one of the ways I teach

my members to identify these stage one basings. But then eventually that resistance that we drew over here, you got a strength arrow, consecutive green dots. This is going up at a faster rate than it's gone before. And what do we know? Consolidation, bullish consolidation, breakout into stage two. In fact, this was your breakout here. This was your long signal right here.

Breakout into stage two. You can do this on any chart, guys. As long as you can identify the stage one basing that came after the bear market, you can do it without the indicators. But I'm telling you what, it's a hell of a lot easier when you got them. So then the question is that I want to ask, because a lot of these have broken out and people are looking for new trades, right? So if we look at hindsight, we say, yeah, AVAX was a great buy here. Link was a great buy here. Solana was a great buy here. How do people screen through a bunch of different charts and set an alarm, which you can't do on TradingView today, by the way, they're doing maintenance, but

set an alarm for when this stage one breakout ends? You were looking at FTM, doesn't look good. How do we not miss it when it does? That's a good question. So let's go to FTM and look at that. So what you're looking at here, if you have missed the move and you really want to do FTM, I'm going to start looking at levels. So I'm probably going to look at this level right here. I'm probably going to draw a resistance right there. And I'm probably going to take a step back on a macro scale, right? And say to myself, okay, if you really want to be in this move, the best thing

to do obviously is wait for green dots to come again, but then you're going to have resistance here. So you can play that little arbitrage play right there with that little piece out that one. But for me, really, it's going to be breaking above the resistance that it couldn't break through before. And that's probably going to come later on in the bull market, right? When liquidity has already flowed through the large caps, the mid caps, and now it's recircling back into the lower caps, right? That's when you might get that play, right? Like on this one or on Dogecoin. So I think those plays are all coming, but they're later. And if you can draw a resistance line and just know where that level is that it just couldn't get back before, that's the real one,

right? That's the real one that you wanted to break for this technically to really start to go into that stage two parabolic phase, which this one just couldn't do. So draw a line, set an alarm, and close that chart forever until it hits. That's my favorite because then you'll have to click through and obsess over them over and over and over

and over and over again. So guys, listen, tell you, I say it every time they, you know, they say you can't teach an old dog new tricks. You guys have looked at my blue and gray charts, which I of course still use for, for years. I have to say, dude, you probably tried to sell me on this. How long ago? Dude, I've been trying for years. You just wouldn't listen to me. I was so dumb, but I was so resistant. And then finally, like you kept sending me videos and kept saying, look at the back testing, look at this. And now guys, like this is what I use.

I'm just telling you, it's what I use. You see it in my newsletter. You see it on Twitter. You see it here. I still, green and red still triggers me, which is why I use blue and gray. It keeps me calm. But that's cool because I'm getting triggered,

but I've got the dots to show me exactly what I'm looking at. But guys, I mean, it really, I genuinely, we would not be doing this. He would not be a guest on this show unless it was something I was using and believed in pretty. It's pretty compelling. I know. I see comments are like, if this worked, everybody would be rich. Well, not that many people are using it. So. Yeah. everybody would be rich. Well, not that many people are using it. So yeah, that means you can get an edge, right? In my opinion. So I think it's a great thing. No, Scott. And you know, what's so vindicating for me is when I hear how excited you are about this. So thank you for just

giving me the chance to show you my work here. I appreciate the- I bother him in the background all the time, guys. It's not just on Tuesday time, guys. So you can obviously get these, uh, below if you guys are interested, but like, uh, like he said, you know, follow zero hedge underscore on X because he does give away a ton of this for free. Like if you don't can't afford the indicators, you're not actively trading. At least you can follow him. And, uh, you know, he's going to give you triggers on some of these things, uh, just because that's how he tweets. Right. So I think that's a really valuable follow. Thank you. Thank you, Scott.

ZeroHedge underscore. And thanks for having me on, Scott. I appreciate it. Awesome, man. Thank you so much. We will see you hopefully next Tuesday. All right. I'll see you next Tuesday for sure.

All right, everybody. We did ETFs again. Didn't even do a shot every time we said ETF this time. The hype is dying. We are very hesitant to put ETF into the title. Did not do that because we saw that we don't really get the engagement when we do that anymore. But yeah, Solana skyrockets. Should you buy alt coins? Looks like a lot of them are looking good. And the answer to that question to me at this point would be buy select alt coins based on the chart. Don't just buy altcoins. And I do think that the Bitcoin bottom looking like it is in. I think that's all we got today. Obviously, Twitter spaces in about 20 minutes. Thank you to James Seifert and to Mr. Wick for joining. You should be following both of them. Their Twitter right down in the description.

That's all I got for you guys today. We'll come back with a giveaway again tomorrow when Misha's back. We will do that. I didn't forget. All right, guys. See you tomorrow. Bye. Let's go.