The Wolf Of All Streets - Solana: Time To Sell? l Mike Alfred

Episode Date: December 27, 2023

Join Mike Alfred and Chris Inks as we are discussing what's going to happen with Solana and other cryptos.  ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEK DAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/   ►►OKX SIGN UP FOR AN OKX TRADING ACCOUNT THEN DEPOSIT & TRADE TO UNLOCK MYSTERY BOX REWARDS OF UP TO $60,000!  👉 https://www.okx.com/join/SCOTTMELKER  ►►TRADING ALPHA READY TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS? THE BEST TRADERS IN CRYPTO ARE RELYING ON THESE INDICATORS TO MAKE TRADES. USE CODE ‘2MONTHSOFF’ WHEN VISITING MY LINK.  👉 https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker  ►►THE DAILY CLOSE BRAND NEW NEWSLETTER! INSTITUTIONAL GRADE INDICATORS AND DATA DELIVERED DIRECTLY TO YOUR INBOX, EVERY DAY AT THE DAILY CLOSE. TRADE LIKE THE BIG BOYS. 👉 https://www.thedailyclose.io/   ►►NGRAVE This is the coldest hardware wallet in the world and the only one that I personally use. 👉https://www.ngrave.io/?sca_ref=4531319.pgXuTYJlYd ►►NORD VPN  GET EXCLUSIVE NORDVPN DEAL - 40% DISCOUNT! IT’S RISK-FREE WITH NORD’S 30-DAY MONEY-BACK GUARANTEE. PROTECT YOUR PRIVACY! 👉 https://nordvpn.com/WolfOfAllStreets   ►►COINROUTES TRADE SPOT & DERIVATIVES ACROSS CEFI AND DEFI USING YOUR OWN ACCOUNTS WITH THIS ADVANCED ALGORITHMIC PLATFORM. SAVE TONS OF MONEY ON TRADING FEES LIKE THE PROS! 👉 http://bit.ly/3ZXeYKd  Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://twitter.com/scottmelker   Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.io   Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe   Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c   #Solana #Crypto #Bitcoin The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

Solana and its ecosystem have been the best performers of this new crypto bull market, but is it overhyped? Has it gone too far? And is it potentially time to sell before a rotation into other assets? Obviously, the real leader of this bull market is Bitcoin, but as it consolidates, we are seeing all coins go mad all over the place. But is the Solana hype too much? Is it time to rotate that capital potentially back to Bitcoin? I'm going to discuss this and a lot more with one of my favorite guests today, Mike Alfred. And we've got Texas West Capital on the back half to share his charts and trades. Let's go. What is up, everybody? I'm Scott Malker, also known as the Wolf of All Streets.

Before we get started, please subscribe to the channel and hit that like button. Mike Alfred is coming off looking like a prophet every time we have him on this show, right? We know that nobody has a crystal ball and it's very hard to make predictions, but he has been consistently nailing his thoughts every single time he comes on. We're going to talk about in a second, obviously the last time he was on, he said, hey man, buy some Bitcoin miners. I did that and I'm up 2X. Well, I don't know, two weeks, three weeks, not very long. We'll bring you on. Mike, when was that even conversation? I didn't check, but I'm up 2X. I owe you a nice, very large magnum of Caymus, I think. I think you're up more than that.

Yeah, 2.5X. Iris was like $3. $3. Three something, yeah. In November, and now it's nine something pre-market. And the miners are going to rip again today. This week is supposed to be a quiet week in the markets, but not for the Bitcoin ecosystem plays. Like it's been quite interesting.

Yesterday was a really big day. Today looks like it's going to be a really big day. Like don't sleep on the end of the year. We could get one of the biggest moves in the year in the next two or three trading days. I mean, it's the Santa Claus rally that has consistently happened over time in TradFi markets, right?

It's obviously a known thing. I think two out of three Decembers have performed exceptionally well since the history of the stock market, but particularly in this week between Christmas and New Year's. And if you actually dig into it, I wrote a newsletter on it today. Depending on how well markets do this week is a very good predictor of actually the next year. So a down Santa Claus between Christmas and New Year's usually means a down next year and an up means a

lot of optimism coming into the next year. But I just want to point out one thing because I think it's very important. Normally, yes, it's just a week that's kind of where you float higher. People are on vacation. Trading volumes are lower. That is not what we're seeing at all in Bitcoin miners. Cypher did 30 million shares yesterday. It was their biggest day of trading since they went public. Their biggest day previously was last week. And they were averaging 2 million shares a day for most of this year. They did 30 million yesterday on a slow trading week. Stock was up 23%. At one point, it was up 32%. It was squeezing the shorts. And pre-market right now, it's squeezing another 12% or 13%. So this is not typical Santa Claus rally

behavior. Santa Claus rally behavior is just a slow drift up where there's no selling pressure and you just kind of bleed higher. This is a squeeze. And I think people need to be watching. They should be back at their desk watching this the next three days because there may be more money to be made in the next two or three trading days than there has been in months. Yeah. And I think it's very clear that Bitcoin itself, Bitcoin adjacent equities and the crypto market are untethered from everything else at the moment. They are trading on this ETF hype. We're now two weeks, I think today, away from January 10th. That'll be Wednesday, two weeks from now, which is the D-Day for an ETF approval. And these miners are just high beta.

So it's like a leverage play on all of this hype that's doing exceptionally well. And then I want to flip to Solana, which also is trading that way, but go ahead. You used the word hype. I would use the word catalyst because we've never had an institutional catalyst this clear that changes fundamentally the market structure for how Bitcoin should trade. And so I think it's much more substantive, right? Like you've got BlackRock Fidelity, Invesco, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera, likely to drive billions of dollars of flows in Q1 alone coming. And I think we're going to look at each other, Scott, in literally three weeks or a month and say, can you believe we spent any time talking to each other on this stream or doing anything? Christmas shopping, sitting by the tree, drinking eggnog, instead of just buying the crap

out of Bitcoin this week. Because it's going to seem so obvious after the approval. Just one thing on the trading structure too, I would have expected Bitcoin to be at 50 or 55k given the likelihood of an approval is like over 90 maybe over 95 percent but we're still trading at 43 basically like yesterday we drifted under 42 i wasn't planning on buying more in the fund yesterday but i just started buying because i said i just don't see how we stay at these levels unless the etf doesn get approved. So I just think this is one of those moments where we're going to pinch ourselves later and we're going to say, wow, I can't believe that there was a moment in time where we only had a week or two to go. We could get an approval next week, by the way. We could get a signaling of an approval in the first couple trading days of next year. So anyway, I just

think now's an incredible time to be invested in this ecosystem and people need to get long if they're not long because otherwise they're going to regret it soon. Yeah. I was saying this yesterday on Macro Monday. I usually want to counter trade my sentiment when it's this strong, but all I see is tailwinds for Bitcoin right now. And I think this might be one of those times where that just makes sense. Obviously, having ETF, election year, liquidity, potentially a pivot coming and liquidity coming back into the market. There's a lot of tailwinds here. But you just said something important. You said, I don't know why we're wasting time talking. We should just be buying Bitcoin. There's someone who has wasted no time

talking and is just buying Bitcoin. And that's this guy, Michael Saylor. MicroStrategy has acquired an additional 14,620 Bitcoin for 615.7 million, an average price of 42,110 per Bitcoin. As of 12-26-23, MicroStrategy now hodls 189,150 Bitcoin, acquired for 5.9 billion, an average price of 31,168. This guy is $6 billion worth of Bitcoin purchased at $31,000 as we trade at $43,000. What an absolute monster. Yeah, it's unbelievable. He's just under, I think, 1% of current outstanding supply. I think he's pushing pretty hard knowing that just like for the average public, a member of the public, the time is running out to buy Bitcoin under 50. And then probably next year, people will be saying the time is running out to buy it under 60 or 80. And so he's just doing what you should do when you have this level of conviction and you understand that Bitcoin's better money. It accrues purchasing power in dollar terms. And the gap accounting is going to change. And so he's going to look a lot smarter

when he can mark up that Bitcoin as it moves up this cycle. Other corporates and nation states are going to figure this out and want to denominate more of their balance sheet. I mean, look, all these central banks still hold gold. Gold hasn't done anything in years. Like I understand that gold's a better asset

than holding a dollar under your mattress. But compared to Bitcoin, it's almost worthless at this point. It's not tuned for the digital world the way Bitcoin is. It's not as scarce. It's not as useful. It's not divisible. It's harder to hold it. It's harder to verify it. So anyway, I think Saylor's... Obviously, that's the last time we met in person, I think, was at his house. So he brings us all together as a community. And love the guy, love the strategy. I'm a shareholder of MicroStrategy, my IRA. I probably should have it in the fund too.

But again, those minor infrastructure plays are much more levered to the price. And that proves, I think, MicroStrategy's up between 300% and 400% year-to-date. Marathon, Cypher, and Iris are all up well over 600%. Cypher and Marathon are approaching 700%. And as of today, they'll go over 700% year-to-date. So the returns speak for themselves. Like MicroStrategy is actually a relatively conservative strategy, believe it or not, compared to the miners.

Literally, the guy is going to probably go down in history as one of the greatest investors of all time simply by dollar cost averaging. Yeah, the pubs were right. He's not looking at a chart and trying to figure out how to time this market. He literally gets huge amounts of money and just buys all at once. And I just think it's so hilarious when these high time preference traders try to troll him because he didn't bottom tick the right area. Resistance. I can't believe it. And it's just like these guys, they're penny flipping

for maybe a million dollar gain and sailors playing for tens, if not hundreds of billions. Anybody who's ever traded in truly large size, if you've accumulated, as I did this year, say 7 million shares of a single microcap miner, you start to realize the limits of liquidity. It's really hard to trade those stocks because you end up becoming the whole market at some point. And so I have an appreciation for what he's trying to do. And so I just chuckle when these traders that are trading a couple of Bitcoin at a time are trying to troll Saylor. It's very short-sighted. It looks really, really stupid and sad.

Okay. Well, that's a good pivot into a conversation on a specific altcoin. I think that there's been a lot of situations where massive whales ends up with a huge position in one of these things that's largely illiquid and they can or cannot buy or sell it at any given time. Solana obviously has been driving this market. I've heard a lot of theories, by the way, tinfoil hat largely, about why this is happening. Yesterday, the new one I got was from my 75-year-old neighbor, literally, who texted me and said, I heard a theory, and it's that all the Solana whales are pumping the hell out of Solana so that they can get whole on their FTX claims, which, by the way, makes a lot of sense because if you were like a Voyager creditor like me, they sold the bottom.

Now, if you've been just waiting and hanging around, Solana's up enough that it could make FTX creditors largely whole. The other one I've heard is that Bonk, this is the other tinfoil hat, is that Bonk is literally just all the big Solana holders and whales pumping the shit out of a meme coin to bring more liquidity into the ecosystem. But here's your tweet. Solana bro euphoria has reached a fever pitch. Under the surface though, things are not well. Smart money was in at $15 and dumber and dumber money has been piling in ever since. Coin is wildly overvalued and will likely crash. Looking for another short entry at 125, 130. Want a 2X, 3X my profit from yesterday's 20-minute scalp?

Please send charity recommendations. You're hilarious. A, what does it mean under the surface? Things are not well. Well, so let me just start with some context. My view on Solana is just that the sentiment had gotten like wildly extreme on the bullish side so so for the most part my my tweet is is more about the behavior of the solana bros and how emotional they all seem to have gotten all of a sudden it's like way too

early in the cycle to be this this emotional and it's a huge red flag historically, almost certainly marked some sort of shorter intermediate term top. That said, we're in a bull market. So I said this on a space the other day, Solana is probably going to go to $500 or $1,000, maybe higher. So this is not really a long-term call. It's not a call where I've done like this deep fundamental work and I've decided, you know, Solano's shit or something like that. It's more that these people seem like they're absolutely unhinged. There does seem to be some piling in behavior. The coins obviously run too far too fast and it was due for a correction. And I enjoy trolling this community. I've done it before with Hex. I did it before with Cardano. And obviously with the companies like the Celsius,

I wasn't really trolling. I was trying to help people understand. But I don't think people in Solana are going to lose that much money, to be honest. If the cycle goes the way that I think it will, Ethereum is going to go to like 10 or 20 or 30,000. Ethereum is going to go to 10 or 20 or 30,000. Bitcoin is going to go to 200,000 or 300,000. Solana is going to go to 1,000. And it doesn't really matter in the short term what the fundamentals are. So you have to take everything I'm saying with a grain of salt. It is quite interesting that people want to engage with these tweets at this level. The Solana supporters are very emotional and very angry. So that doesn't really bode well, in my opinion, for the long term. Because if they're really that

confident, they should just keep building. My suspicion is that the VCs are propping it up to some degree. A lot of the tokens are held by a small group of insiders. They are subsidizing the validators from what I can tell to the tune of the research has 100 million a month. That seems like a lot to me to try to pretend that you're decentralized when you're really not. And obviously, the chain is shut down a bunch in previous cycles. So there are a lot of reasons to be concerned. But again, the token could go up a lot. So I'm not saying it won't do that. It very well might go up quite a lot. Yeah, I think that's a pragmatic approach and really important to specify time preference. I agree with you. It feels very euphoric right now, which means maybe you can buy lower,

but you're more aggressive saying you would short it. I would be looking to buy Solana for that big move through the cycle that you'd be talking about just at a lower price. And I know you say you love trolling these communities, which is hilarious, Cardano and Hex. Community-wise, the euphoria, I can see the corollaries. But as far as the underlying asset, I really do believe that Solana has, with Fire Dancer coming, I think they fundamentally have survived a major, major stress test. And so I do think that Solana lasts and does well, as you said, with time. Yeah, you might be right. I'm really not making that call. I put out one tweet on Solana, what was it, maybe a week ago,

just saying, hey, the fundamentals really need to catch up to the price. Yeah, I think it's overhyped. And the response I got to that was so strong that I was out for a run, of course, as usual, I was out for a run. And I'm like, man, what could I say here to really test this and see how unhinged these people are? And for whatever reason, that tweet, I mean, it got 700,000 impressions. It really shouldn't, right? It's just one guy's opinion that is kind of short-term overbought and that you know you should be shorting in that 125 area um you know it went from 125 to 105 or 106 or whatever it's probably gonna bounce back i haven't looked today but everything's sort of ripping today so like i'd be surprised if there was a lot more follow-through but it does look like the momentum, the outperformance that it had for the last few months is sort of like, at least temporarily, it's kind of gone

away. And I do think Ethereum will catch up, by the way. I think Ethereum is going to catch up over the next few months, especially with the Bitcoin catalyst. Historically, when Bitcoin has a big catalyst, Ethereum tends to catch up. And so the way I've been playing that personally is that grayscale Ethereum trust, ETHE. Like when I started buying, I was trading at a 15% discount to underlying spot. The sentiment on Ethereum is like literally the reverse opposite of Solana.

Like people are giving up on it. People are saying it's not useful anymore, even though the metrics say otherwise, that like, of course people still use it, even if they use it via layer two on top of it. So anyway, I picked up a position. It was originally like 220,000 shares. Now, I've upped it yesterday to 253,000 shares, and I may take it up to 300,000 shares. It's trading at like 19, and I think it's probably going to go to like 60

or 80 this next year. What's the discount now? What's the current? I haven't even looked in the last couple of days because once I decided to take a position, I felt that I understood the levels on the actual instrument. And that's the thing, just like GBTC, these things sometimes trade, they trade in correlation with the underlying spot asset, but sometimes they veer from that. So once you get a sense for the levels on it, it doesn't matter so much because this type of asset, if Ethereum goes up next year, ETH will go up more simply because there's a discount to our bear. 10.28% what I'm seeing here. I just looked this up. So some of it's already closed. And I'm up on the position. I think my average is like 1840

something. Although I'm adding, so I'm going to bring that average up. But like I said, I think it's a $60 thing. So it's probably a 200% type of return at the low end. I mean, obviously if Ethereum wakes up and runs to five or 10,000 next year, this trust could triple, it could go up fourx. Who knows? Listen, I may be dead ass wrong, but for the last four to five months, at least once every three weeks, I write an entire newsletter on why I think Ethereum is an opportunity. I love the it's dead and going to zero sentiment that you talked about. And then I think it's going to be the trade. And like we've seen now,

it's not just Solana, it's the Solana ecosystem, right? All the meme coins in Solana and all the other things. And we've seen that sort of rotate to AVAX and you saw the AVAX launchpads and all these things have their temporary move. I think Ethereum will get that and it'll be sustained. And I think a lot of that will be captured by layer twos. There's things people probably aren't watching. This is a lesser known, but I've been holding it forever. Metis, it's a layer two on Ethereum. Look at this chart. Look at what it's done in the past few days.

You're talking about hundreds and hundreds of percent gains. Matic, another huge layer two, finally starting to move now well over a dollar. I just think that we're starting to see the initial moves of that rotation back into Ethereum. Yeah. And I like that Ethereum has been around for two full cycles and it's actually outperformed Bitcoin over big chunks of both of those cycles. I think people are underestimating its staying power. To me, it looks a lot like the value stocks that I typically evaluate where sentiments turn negative, but the underlying economics are fine. Ethereum's inflation schedule and supply issuance is better than a lot of these other tokens that are inflating at a much faster rate, including Solana.

So I think there's just a point. I don't know when. There's a point in the next few quarters where it turns around and it starts to outperform Solana. It outperforms Bitcoin for periods of time. Again, don't recommend it over Bitcoin. I own a lot of Bitcoin. I own a lot of miners. It's by far my biggest position. But this ETH trust, I don't know, it's almost 5 million now total exposure. It's almost like a hedge because I don't know for sure what's going to happen this cycle. And of course, there's going to be an alt rally. There's going to be some of these other things that work. And so instead of just closing my mind to that and saying I'm all in

on Bitcoin, I want to have exposure to something else. It helps you stick with your primary trades too, right? If you're primarily long Bitcoin, but you own a little bit of Ethereum exposure, if Ethereum rips, you're not worried. You're not trying to capture that at all because you're kind of already in it. So to me, it's like a hedge, but it's just a long position. Yeah. There's a few other things in my mind that have tailwinds here for Ethereum. Assuming we get this Bitcoin spot ETF approval, whether we're going to get an Ethereum spot ETF approval or not, that will be the shifting narrative. And everybody's going to be talking about how BlackRock has filed for an Ethereum spot ETF and we're pushing for that. I don't know that Gary is going to give it to us,

but I think there's a huge narrative. And I want to point something out actually on the chart, because I think it's important what you said. If you look at 2000, this is Ethereum versus Bitcoin, right? And Bitcoiners love to point to the underperformance of Ethereum. But if you look at each cycle, right, 2017, the lows of 0.007, right? And then you go to maybe the next cycle, 2021-ish, you're talking about 0.02, massive move up. Now, even though, yes, it hasn't outperformed since 21, we're now sitting at 0.053, right? So each cycle, Ethereum progressively does better versus Bitcoin, even though maybe Bitcoin outperforms, it hasn't made a new all-time high. And people also seem to forget that in 2017, Bitcoin topped

in December, and then Ethereum went absolutely insane for the next month and put in that high. So I think there's just a lot of tailwinds here. Maybe I'm nuts, but it feels like the most obvious counter narrative or counter sentiment trade there is right now. Yeah. And the reason why I like ETH too, in line with what you just said, is because it does play directly off of that ETF narrative. I mean, the discount's already closed from 15 to 11, but that 11 to zero or 11 to three or whatever is significant outperformance. So if Ethereum outperforms Bitcoin, then ETH should outperform ETH in that window as well. And so you'll get something like, I don't know if you remember this, I came on in the spring and I said, my number one idea is long, just straight long GBTC. And I think Cheds was kind of laughing at me at that time, but that absolutely was the

risk adjusted trade of the year in this sector, because you were arbing the discount, you were long the main asset that was outperforming most of the year. And you were doing it in a way that had limited downside because if the whole market had dumped, GBTC would have held up better than most of those other things. And so I think going into next year, ETHG is a very similar trade dynamic where you've got the ETF catalyst out in front of you and you might have it out in front of you for this entire year, even post the BTC ETF approval. And you have an asset, again, that's out of favor, that's sitting at these interesting kind of technical levels where you could get a bounce even if something is fundamentally wrong. You could get a bounce, a significant bounce, even if Ethereum ultimately ends up not working. I think that's unlikely, but if it ends up not working, it could still make

money. Yeah. Honestly, yeah, you're right. Crypto needs narratives, not working. I think that's unlikely, but if it ends up not working, you can still make money. Yeah, I'm not even thinking about the fundamentals. Yeah, honestly, yeah, you're right. Crypto needs narratives, not fundamentals. We all know that Ethereum gas fees are way too high, and that it's slow, and that there's problems with the chain. That has no bearing on my idea that the price is going to go up as a trade. Yeah, you might be right. But I also try to think through on the worst case scenario, on the downside, what happens? Because that's what,

if you don't want to lose money over long periods of time, as a value investor, you have to ask, what's the worst case scenario? And I do think they'll figure out some of those issues. And there's still some demand out there

for NFTs and DeFi. And there's a lot of protocols that are built on top of Ethereum that can't migrate that easily. So they may want to be on Solana now, but they're not going to get there this cycle. Yeah. I mean, this is the GBTC discount, January 23, we're 50%, 48.5. Now it's sitting at 5.51%. And as you said, you're literally looking at ETH and you have the exact roadmap of GBTC being the best performing asset last year because of the tailwinds coming into an ETF and all of these things. And you have the literally exact same narratives coming for Ethereum. And you've got sentiment that's even worse because the market, people were positive on Bitcoin, even though Bitcoin GBTC was at negative

50%. Like the Bitcoin community never turned on itself. The Ethereum community has like vacated. They're turning on each other. They're like making fun of the bankless guys. Because it's largely a bunch of traders. That's the difference between the Bitcoin community and the Ethereum and the Solana and all these other communities. Bitcoin community has real long-term conviction in the asset and the underlying fundamentals of it. And these other communities don't. They just don't really see it. They turn on each other so quickly. But that creates opportunities for intelligent trading. Again, not a recommendation because I would never recommend somebody else take this trade, but I'm pretty confident it's going to make money in fiat terms. And of course, I'm going to turn around and buy more Bitcoin. Just buy more Bitcoin with it.

Just a few more things on Solana. The non-vote transactions hit a yearly high. This is generally viewed as bullish for the chain that it's actually being used, that TVL is increasing, and that transactions are increasing. So people really are using Solana. I want your opinion on though what's happening with the Solana phone here. Solana's stock of phone orders canceled following inventory management issues. So as people probably know, this phone was basically dead, right? It was a very cool product and it totally admitted, listen, we only need to sell like 30,000 of these things to view it as a success. But now they literally can't make them fast enough. They're selling for $5,000 on eBay,

all because of an arbitrage opportunity with a bonk airdrop. This feels frothy. Yeah. It reminds me of 2017, all the airdrops and everybody was super excited. And that was telling you that there was a lot more risk than people thought. So I, again, no idea like what actually happens to Solana, but, but there's enough noise about the incentives for the validators. There's enough, there's enough noise about activity on chain. Some of it being like, essentially. And of course, you hear that in all these tokens over time, and especially with wash trading and the exchanges, a lot of liquidity we now know has not been real because people like CZ were so good at that.

So I think you always have to be skeptical of what's really going on. And even with Bitcoin, you have to ask how much of the Bitcoin premium is tether and how much of tether is actually not real. So it's always a game of smoke and mirrors. And that's why I revert back to what are the things that you could actually know with some certainty? And I end up back at Bitcoin as the only place that I entrust a dollar for 10 years because I'm not confident you'll get it back if you put it in Solana. I don't have it sitting in front of me, but I'm assuming you saw the story about CZ that he increased his net worth by like $25 billion this year, even in the midst of all of this. So his fine is kind of a drop in the bucket. This

year, I think he made four or five times what the fine is that he has to pay. And I went on that space with you guys, with you and what's his name? Your colleague who does the Mario, right? And I said, I thought it was a win for CZ, like good for him. He extricated himself. He doesn't need to run from US law enforcement the rest of his life. He can travel again and stuff. And it's mostly just a slap on a wrist. He'll still have some influence over his company and he'll still have a lot of money. Um, so good, you know, good for him. Like I'm sure he didn't mean to find himself in this situation when he started out. Um, but you know, here we are. Yeah. Any final thoughts before I let you go? Anything we should be looking at at i mean i i tend to agree with you that there's going to be this rotation i'm really looking heavily even more into miners even though i'm up so big i just think that right now crypto is such an

obvious trade yeah let's see what happens the rest of this this week um we're either going to get a big squeeze in the miners uh or we won't, but that's what I'll be watching the next three trading days to see if we get that. Perfect, man. Mike, always a pleasure. I appreciate you always waking up really early and coming to join, man. I always learn a lot, and I actually make money on our conversations, which is rare with our guests.

We speak in theory. Happy New Year to you and your family. And I'll see you in 2024. See you too, man. I hope we catch up soon in person. Thanks, Mike. All right. Well, I got someone else I want to ask if it's time to sell Solana. Got Christopher Ings, of course, Texas West Capital back.

We missed last week. Should I just ask you the question here from the gate? Is it time to sell Solana? No, I think even if you're short term, I, we still got a bit higher to go. I got a chart here. I'll pull up in a minute, but, uh, you know, I think, uh, it was, um, Gary Cardone who mentioned that he bought some, uh, some Solana there, uh, recently. And then he was asking, okay, what do you guys normally do here? Do you, uh, do you, you know, like sell before the end of the year, short term?

Do you let it ride, whatever? And I think for pretty much anything, I mean, especially if you're not a trader, you more or less let it ride. I mean, the bull market's begun. It should be going on for at least another year plus. And so whatever you've got, there's little that probably won't continue much higher over the course of the next year or so now. So yeah. Well, let's see what you're looking at on the chart. I have the Solana chart here. I think Mike kind of nailed the area that you would want to at least

see some sort of pullback here in the 120 and 135 on a weekly chart. And daily, he was saying a lot of things are ripping and Solana is down a bit today but i can't give this much meaning i just think as i said before if i get an opportunity to uh buy it lower i will and listen that people know my solana was liquidated by voyager at the very dead bottom so i'm salty and want back in uh you know chase chase the position i'm just kidding you don't do that but yeah so i i had a position in Solana from sub $30. That's long gone. Yeah. Sorry. I forgot to load my chart up there for you. I was like, why are you showing yours? Yeah. All right. So really, at the end of the day, what I'm looking at here is we've got three waves down, three waves up and five waves down. Says it's a flat correction.

We've got, looks like five waves up here. So this looks like just a correction or pullback. We've got, looks like, uh, five waves up here. So this looks like just a correction or pullback. We should get a rally up from here, but based on the height of this, if this is at least a wave four, you know, based on the height of this, we've got a target of about 144 right now. So, um, you know, we, we were running, you know, I keep that update that daily with our, um, with our group coaching guys. And then, um, we also were running signals on it from like about 61, and I think those ended up at around 110 or so was the last target on that. And then, you know, I was out for Christmas, and this thing just kind of kept going to 123. But, yeah, I think especially if we, you know,

if we get this breakout higher here, it should kind of give us that rally based on the height here to about 144, at least for right now. And so that kind of gets, you said what, 135, 136, that kind of gets us around there. Yeah, same area. But at the end of the day, it's, you know, in the grand scheme of things, it just becomes a pullback, right? I mean, that's all it becomes here. We have this, you know, again, this great area of accumulation here. And we've just kind of taken off kind of like with Bitcoin, right? We have the six, seven months of sideways and then it took off. It never came back.

And it kind of this one did it more sideways here. But, you know, Bitcoin kind of reaccumulated as it was rising and then took off again. And we've got this one going here. So, yeah, yeah. And that gives us, by the way, you'll notice it gives us almost the 200 percent of the first wave here. So the height of the first wave, 149 or so, almost 149 half gives us 200 percent. So, yeah, I mean, everything kind of aligns with that. And then we'll look for a pullback from there. But I think, you know, again, as with most everything out there right now, I think it's all from, you know, more or less.

I can say every single thing out there, there's always something that doesn't, but generally speaking, things should just continue rallying for the next year or so. Yeah, I, I, I totally agree. So what else are you looking at specifically? Let's see. Well, let's start with Bitcoin here. You know, we've had the pullbacks here. We're just basically going sideways since back here around the beginning of December. So, I mean, it's a big range, but it's over sideways here. It looks like we just had a leading diagonal and a pullback here. You can notice we're finding support on this. Again, where I was talking about that reaccumulation, it was rising here.

So if we extend that resistance up there, we're kind of getting touches on that. And so overall, still looking at 50,000, man. I mean, you know, the wave circle three, the 1618 extension. So if this is, you know, one, two, and three here, that's around 51,000, you know, 950 or so. If this is a one, two here, which is what it looks like, minimum expected should have us up there, you know, just around 51,000 or so. So it's right around that same area. So I, you know, it's still the same target I've had. Doesn't change. Yeah. I mean, I can show you another argument for that exact same target.

That makes a lot of sense to me. Obviously this is the Bitcoin daily chart. I think everybody knows this was that Luna sort of level, right? Where we dropped after Luna to me, getting above 3840 was really the like serious go time. We had a lot of lower levels, but getting above that and holding above that erased the, all of the contagion in my mind of 2022. But for me now, I mean, we're, we're forming a pennant here, right? That consolidation, you're talking about decreasing volume, forming a pennant. Now don't be surprised people, if this turns into a flag and you get a slightly lower low, it happens all the time. Very, very frequently, not all the time, but holding above that level and making a pennant, even if we take, I guess, the most conservative flagpole,

right? I mean, starting here, which is a very small flagpole, some people would pull it even down to here. I'm assuming, depending on the breakout, that gives you a target of 54,000, if we break that top resistance, regardless of what happens on this, if this trickles down, if we break this top resistance right now in this pattern, you're looking at low 50,000. That's like the most basic classic charting pattern you can get a bull pendant or a bull flag, right? Yeah, exactly. And I, so, you know, again, yeah, I don't see any reason to freak out or anything. And I think we've still got some more upside there. Does it happen?

Now, the question I think is, does it happen before January 1st? That's the question, right? So, you know, I can't say it won't. I don't know. It seems like a bit. But I mean, what are we sitting at now? We're at like 40, 43,000. So what is that?

Maybe 20%. We got what? One, two, three, four days or so. Bitcoin can do that, right? Yeah. I mean, I'm trying to look right now on my chart where this would align with ETF. Yeah. I mean, you've got a bull pennant consolidation in here, right here. So that'd be a little far, but that's January 10th. So yeah. I mean, if we just go sideways through the new year and then we get an ETF approval and we're sitting in a bull pennant, technically, it's always in the chart. I mean, come on. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, or it takes off and then ETF approval comes and it dumps and everybody goes, see, I told you it was going to dump. Oh, my God, it's going to zero now. That $12,000 target still in. Capo was right all along.

And no, we just get like a wave four kind of pullback into the 30s there. And then we kind of continue higher. I think the miss, I've been saying it for a while now. I don't think there's a lot of hope to get back here to 31. I think that 34 to 36 would probably be the much more likely target, especially if we're getting up there to like 52 or 54 or something like that. It doesn't mean we can't go to 31, but I think that becomes a secondary thought, not a primary thought at that point. But just so people are listening, that's saying, hey, we go to 50, 52 and the prices right now are very much still in play after that.

And even a little lower. Yeah, yeah, exactly. Exactly. If you've been here before, you you expect it you're not even scared of it but just let you know just go to 50 doesn't mean you ain't back at 40 again right there's gotta be pullbacks along the way right so i mean you want them right we need these healthy we need these healthy pullbacks we we're already doing that uh we're already doing the thing where we don't retest key levels and we go parabolic and they eventually come back, guys. I mean, even that 20,000 level that was never to be retested from the 2017 high, we eventually got back in. It just seems to happen. So in that context, I think I'd

see an ETH BTC chart up there. And I would love your look at that. Yeah. Yeah. So before we were kind of looking at possibly a bottom over here, and as you can see, we pulled back. So I've just adjusted the count a little bit, but I mean, to me, the key thing here, I've seen a lot of people say there's absolutely nothing bullish about this. Um, but again, I think that just goes to, you know, the show, the difference in the, in the way that we look at it. Again, this does appear to be, um be accumulation here. We've got the volume over here being this spike of volume at the swing low. And this one over here being much, much lower.

That's what we want to see. There's less selling going on and we're getting a lower or higher low. We did this bullish SFP here. This is the weekly chart. So the week of December 18th, just below the week of October 30th. We've got that great candle right there. And here we are breaking out above the descending resistance. You know, again, the first and second targets here still stay the same, 0, 6, 4, 6, 7, 8,

and then 0, 7, 3, 6, 2, 5, 2, 4, whatever. But getting through the first one is the first hint there that the bottom is probably in. Getting through this one, that's your wave B, triangle resistance there. Gives confidence to the count. And that gets us, you know, again, coming up here toward 0.12888. Now, if we break down below the swing low here, okay, we can go lower. But until that happens, you know, you're kind of set there right here. We've got a little range as well.

And so with this little range right here, much like this bigger range, range this is your spring right here kind of like this was over here so you're getting the spring you get a great rally up uh mid-range and then you're getting this breakout to head higher i mean i don't think there's a lot bearish about that if you understand you know wyckoff and if you understand elliot wave i think they're both screaming that it's probably going to go up yeah i mean i just talked about this yeah i was just talking about this with Mike a bit, but I just want to remind people, it's only been oversold on the weekly four times in history, right? This is the fourth time it just happened on that dip down in October. And now if BTC drops and it hasn't, you've got the wick, but if it closes technically below 0.052, you're going to

have a massive bullish divergence coming out of oversold RSI. Just looking for a buy opportunity. Yeah. So any drop here is going to give you a massive bullish catalyst in my mind, which is bullish divergence with oversold RSI on the weekly, which has only happened four times even on the weekly, or just hit oversold for the fourth time ever, which is what's happened in the past and goes up massively, which is what's happened every time it's been oversold. And then obviously not to even reiterate, but all the sentiment markers that Mike and I were talking about, just like it's absolutely, we're in a bull market and people are so down on this asset. Yeah, it's dead, right? I see it all the time and people, you know, getting ahold of me all

the time. You know, Ethereum is dead. Why are you even talking about it? Because, well, you're the guy that I'm looking for. You know, you in aggregate out there, multiples of you are out there now feeling this way. And all we've done is breakout, retest, and we're rallying now looking to breakout higher. So initially, I've got a 3314 target and then I've got more around a 4626 target. But, you know, if we consider that, you know, Bitcoin's coming up to the end of its, you know, before it pulls back a bit. And then we look at the Ethereum Bitcoin chart. It looks like Ethereum's rallying up against it now. Why wouldn't we see Ethereum, you know uh continue to rally up there but i mean here again looks like

one two one two to me i think peter brandt was looking at this as being a leading diagonal and i said yeah possibly but until it proves it is we're gonna look here at what we see here but i think he changed that um recently as well i mean i also like the USD chart. I mean, just even zoom out on the weekly, like 2159, this area, whatever you can call it, you could call the high maybe 2140. That was flipped. That's a major key weekly level. It's now been tested to support three times and this candle almost to the penny. I mean, 25 easy, but that's only 10% up from here, not even. But I think this is going up to, you know, 3000 something easy, easy, even if, even with bad sentiment. Yeah. Yeah. And that's even, you know, the way we do it. And, you know, again, I kind of caution new traders against these things that we often talk about as experienced traders where, you know, by when there's blood in the street by the dip, um, you know, a sentiment, you know, it means one thing to those of us that have been in a long time it means something completely different to newer traders that don't have the experience in

the time in the market um you know it's like okay well what's what dip am i buying or what blood in the street am i buying or you know um you know those are always should be the questions they're asking but no they're just like oh hey listen they said do this and then they're like but it kept going down you know it doesn't make any sense. And, you know, so I'm trying to be better about that myself, because I realized that, you know, people are, you know, following along and listening and new traders, and I don't want to give them a wrong idea when we're trying to do this. But I mean, they make sense once you understand them. But usually that comes with being through, you know, a couple of cycles in whatever market you're in to get a

feeling for understanding what that actually means. But, you know, the sentiment right now is what I'm talking about. It's not when your timeline is, oh, everybody's bearish or everybody's bullish. Because, again, you know, social media timelines, social media algos, posting what they think you want to see. So it's not necessarily what's actually going on. What else you got up there? Let me see here. I've got, oh, let's talk about, well, we did talk about Sol, didn't we?

Yeah, okay. XMR is one of my interests right now. You know, basically the same thing we're kind of looking at with more or less with Ethereum, right? We have this consolidation up to resistance. Not saying that it's an ascending triangle, but just that there are higher lows up into this resistance area. So if we can clear this at around 187, 190 or so, based on the height, the widest part of this consolidation, that gives us a target up here at about $312 and a half. And, you know, and then that's just the beginning, you know, again, on the way higher. But this thing's been going sideways now for this is the weekly chart for about five hundred fifty three days.

If we're looking at it, it does look like accumulation with the volume and price action that we've got going on. And, you know, again, within this, we have those higher lows up toward this consolidation here. So my thoughts is that this is going to break out pretty good. It might take a little bit to get through the initial area here, but it should head out there at least to 312.5. And then from there, ultimately should break out to a new high. You can see we've got kind of this double top-ish area here. And so looking to break out above that and continue up. Classic coins, classic coins. What's next? Yeah, I tell you, right? Oh, here was something I found interesting. Was this inverse finance, I think? Let me see here. Yeah, inverse finance, INV.

We've got this one, two, three, four, and then this ending diagonal here is five. And we've broken out, retested support. I think we head up higher. Initially, I've got a target of 66 and three quarters and then about $76 or so. Those are my two initial targets. As you can see, that second one kind of gets us right at this, right into this first kind of support resistance area right here. But ultimately, once we break out above that, we should be rallying back up here at least to, was that 718? So from the 770 area, there'd be about a tenfold run there. From where we're at right now, just a bit more, you know, 17, 18 times, something like that. But, you know, again, with everything else, there's a good chance you're going to see a new all-time high coming from it

during the cycle. And, you know, it is an alt, alt's flying. You know, the real key is being in at these lower levels when you're getting this confirmation of what appears to be a bottom coming in. No guarantees, obviously, you know, that's trading. But, yeah, I think especially if we hit those two levels, I think we got to pull back and then really kind of take off toward that all-time high. Yeah, that's good. What else you got there? I see you got a couple more.

Yeah, and so if we've got Ethereum gone, ETC, Ethereum Classic should be running as well. This is just a big bird's eye view of the chart. Weekly, a great bit of accumulation appears to be going on here. Again, we've got accumulation for about 560 days so far, right? We just cleared this descending resistance here. We had a big candle spike of volume coming through that. We're at the EQ of the range.

Pop over that. We should rally top of the range probably around 4625. Next target would be 99 and three quarters. And again, I think we do end up breaking out higher there. You know, I think it could quite, you know, could get crazy. Same thing with Ethereum, right? We're looking at Ethereum probably really busting out, making a nice big run during, during the cycle. And, you know, again, if Ethereum is doing it, Ethereum Classic should do it, which for those of you that don't know, it's called Ethereum Classic

because it is the original Ethereum chain. Theereum you guys are looking at is the uh is the uh chained is the uh uh what do you call that the break off of it when they had that issue and they rolled it back yeah so um yeah yeah but but yeah ethereum's gone ethereum classic should be going with the two uh i got a lot going on there and finally talking of old school there's another one back. Oh, man. Look at that chart, man. Look at how clean that is. This is absolutely beautiful. I love it.

Again, it does appear to be accumulation here, looking at that price action and volume. You know, we have this dip down. We have another one here. Looking at a smaller range right here as well, which is really kind of makes it makes it look really good you know get that pull back there into this previous resistance to support breaking out the resistance here 35 cents then 45 and a half and then 69.3

cents are my targets locally here but again like everything else you know this does appear to be one two three45. And then we've got a you know, a pullback of about 78.6. So I think we we break out and rally higher. So we get into the the dollars there. So you know, a lot of people that come in, here's one big thing, which is what I say real quick. I know a lot of people are telling new traders that are coming in, hey, listen, you know, don't worry about previous coins, just look at the ones that are getting

hyped this time. But here's the thing, if you can't trade the older coins, you have absolutely no luck trying to trade the craziness. That's what these new ones that just pop up and rocket for no reason. And so what you're basically doing is you're throwing in money and hoping it goes up. You're going to lose money most likely. Okay. Don't listen to that. I would say, look at the ones that have more chart, that have more history that you can work with, especially if you're a newer trader. Because the other ones that don't have anything, you're just hoping and you never know when to pull out. And then you're going to do too soon. And then you're going to be crying. You're going to try to get back in. And then it's going to go

the other way. Yeah, because there's literally not even a resistance line when they just go straight up from launch. You're just gambling. Then it's wonderful if you got in early but yeah it's impossible to know when to sell when there's literally no nothing above price action yeah exactly so there's a lot of these charts guys that look good look back the ones have been around 2017 2018 um they give you a lot easier trade because they do have the um the resistance and support all those levels on it already uh you don't have to guess, but ultimately, again, I'm gonna go back to what I said earlier. You know, the cycle's just a year in now and, you know, it's, it's got a lot further to go. And so pretty much everything, not, not everything, there's going to be some things that aren't, but most of everything is probably going to rally and

see new all-time highs at some point during the cycle, or at least get pretty close to it. So, and they're all down here toward the bottom for the most part. So, you know, you only had really a few that have gone up like Saul or link is moving up, you know, things like that. But these other ones still got a lot of room to go. So you can have a chance to make a lot more money that way, I think. So you're not bearish on anything really. It's the dollar. Now we look at the like, okay, nothing in crypto. You're still very bullish crypto. Me too. Yeah. Yeah. Bearish the dollar. We'll talk about crypto. You're still very bullish crypto. Me too. Yeah, yeah. Barish the dollar.

We'll talk about that next time because we got to go. But yeah, I think the dollar looks like it's rated. Dude, we talk about it every week. You know, low 90s, high 80s. Nothing's changed there. It's not even worth looking at. All right, man. Well, everybody follow TX West Capital.

Of course, Mike Alfred from before, I believe, is at Mike Alfred. Awesome, man. Love doing this every Wednesday. So I guess I will see you next week. capital of course mike alfred from before i believe is at mike alfred um awesome man love doing this every wednesday uh so i guess i will uh see you next week everybody and we will be back of course tomorrow santa claus rally let's see if we can get it in bitcoin man let's get it all right man thank you bye everyone Let's go.