The Wolf Of All Streets - Stop Getting Liquidated, You Idiots! The Market Is About to Turn Bullish!

Episode Date: August 28, 2024

Joshua Frank, Co-Founder & CEO of The Tie, joins me to discuss the latest in crypto! He has the best insight in the industry. Chris Inks will join us in the second part to share some interesting trades in crypto and beyond.  John Frank: https://x.com/Joshua_Frank_ Chris Inks: https://twitter.com/TXWestCapital ►► COMING SOON! 👉https://www.thewolfofallstreets.com/ ►►LEAVE A COMMENT HERE INSTEAD OF YOUTUBE 👉https://roundtable.rtb.io/shortUrl/ofgXS4c ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEKDAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/   ►► The Arch Public Unleash algorithmic trading. Discover how algorithms used by hedge-funds are now accessible to traders looking for unparalleled insights and opportunities!  👉https://thearchpublic.com/  ►►OKX SIGN UP FOR AN OKX TRADING ACCOUNT THEN DEPOSIT & TRADE TO UNLOCK MYSTERY BOX REWARDS OF UP TO $60,000!  👉https://www.okx.com/join/SCOTTMELKER  ►►TRADING ALPHA READY TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS? THE BEST TRADERS IN CRYPTO ARE RELYING ON THESE INDICATORS TO MAKE TRADES. Use code '10OFF' for a 10% discount. 👉https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker  ►►NGRAVE This is the coldest hardware wallet in the world and the only one that I personally use. 👉https://www.ngrave.io/?sca_ref=4531319.pgXuTYJlYd  Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://twitter.com/scottmelker   Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.io   Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe   Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c   #Bitcoin #Crypto #Investments The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

Consensus is that a bull market is coming, but you idiots keep getting liquidated. Why would you people be using liquidation as a stop loss with high leverage in a choppy market when you know that the summer is boring and you're just going to lose all your money before everything inevitably goes up and you sit crying in the corner? That's apparently what's been happening every single time. Stop doing it. Josh Frank and I are going to discuss this and everything crypto, even in this slow and boring market. Were you idiots? Keep getting liquidated. Texas West Capital on the back half. Let's go. What is up, everybody? I'm Scott Melker, also known as the Wolf of All Streets. Before we get started, please subscribe to the channel and gently tap that like button.

This is one of those rare days where I jump ahead with the guests, my producers away. I made the title myself. That's why it says idiots. That probably wouldn't have happened otherwise. I messaged Josh this morning and I was like, hey man, what are we going to talk about? I can't find anything. You were like, there's nothing. Yeah. It's not the most exciting market right now, but we can riff on that. We can talk about it. There are some exciting things. The institutional space is definitely heating up a little bit, which we can talk about. So there are things going on under the surface, but I think the market is quiet. But also keep in mind, crypto bros like to take the summer off sometimes. And

we're all about to convene with apparently 400 public side events at Token 2049 in two weeks, which is nuts. Which to me, I don't know, usually a dead event doesn't have, dead industry doesn't have, I don't know, probably 50,000 people traveling across the world for a conference with 400 side events. So even though there's nothing happening and prices aren't moving, well, they're moving, they're moving down,'re stagnating i do think there's under the surface there's a lot of building there's things that are happening in the space yeah listen i think we'll dig into that every time i go to token 2049 in singapore which basically has been this is my third time so it's been bear market every time i go from like some conference in the united states mainnet or consensus or something andys or something, and I'm like, wow, this is super depressing. And then you go to Singapore and it's like crypto Coachella, no matter what, no matter the market, no matter the prices. Asia is just excited.

It's like there's never been a bear market over there. And I'm not surprised. I mean, to your point, it's fun to talk about how boring and stupid it is. But Bitcoin did go to 74,000. There's a ton of optimism. There's a ton of things being built. It's not that bad. I just have to laugh like before we dig into that, you know, you have these stories like Bitcoin price today down to 59k after large token transfer spooks traders. So it was a token transfer from some huge wallet to finance. Apparently, that's

the narrative for why people got spooked and the market crashed and they found out it was internal transfers and now 44,808 bitcoin worth over 2.6 billion have been withdrawn from binance right so people are like getting liquidated on any single little news story that spooks and it's usually fake and it doesn't matter i literally yesterday i saw someone report that like $2 billion, hundreds of millions had been donated to the Kamala Harris campaign in Ethereum and that they were dumping it off and this went viral and they literally don't even accept crypto donations. Yeah, I mean, look, this is what happens in low volume, low liquidity environments, right? You know, especially when there's not much going on and people trade on events.

To your point, the little things can have a profound impact, right, on prices on the market, especially at times of the day. I mean, it's in the U.S., it's the week before Labor Day. And obviously, this is not a fully U.S.-driven market. But a lot of this happened on kind of later, you know, like evening US hours where people are probably enjoying vacation right before Labor Day and right before things pick back up again in September. And so in regimes that regime is the right word in situations that look like that where everyone's on vacation, people aren't really trading, there's low volume, things can

move much quicker. And if there's a lot of open interest, you could see a lot of liquidations that cascade very quickly and start moving the market. You know, irrationally, I don't know if irrationally is the right word. But look, I mean, I think people are struggling to find narratives to catch on to, other than the fact that the institutions are buying your Bitcoin, that is real. That is happening right now. But outside of that, the narrative is somewhat weakened. So I think it's leading to any negative news having a material impact in the market. But I think that's a good thing because we get to this point, it happens all the time. And then at some point in the next few months, when no one expects it, we get an absolutely face-melting rally.

I don't know. I've been in this space for eight years. It seems like that's just the cycle that we see. Wasn't it exactly on October 1st, it was either in 2020 or 2021, that the summer ended and the clock turned October 1st and Bitcoin went up like 10% and sparked the next entire huge rally? I mean, it happens every time in this cycle, but I want to drill in more on what you were saying about the institutions. I mean, you're doing basically a side conference in Singapore, right? And you said you're a bit encouraged or

surprised at how much institutional involvement. We're doing an event in Singapore, which is separate. No, but we host, so we host our flagship conference. It's called the bridge. It's like a 200 person institutional only conference in New York City. And the thing that has been really surprising to me is that I think we've had more registrations or very similar numbers of registrations from traditional institutions than we have from crypto native institutions. So obviously we have the crypto native VCs and hedge funds coming. But I think the thing that surprised me

is really the sheer number of traditional asset managers, banks, hedge funds, and other firms, not as much hedge funds, but really on the asset manager and the bank side that are taking interest to crypto. And we see that. I mean, obviously we have the Bitcoin ETFs that are live that have generated a tremendous amount of volume and also have generated a tremendous amount of AUM for these different firms.

A lot of these guys have tested tokenization projects. You see Franklin Templeton last week with the announcement of Avalanche. I think Avalanche moved close to 20 percent on that announcement last week. You know, you've seen BlackRock with Biddle. And so I think on the institutional side, we've really seen, and not on the hedge fund and VC side, which is interesting because it's very different than 2021. If you look at the 2021 market, you had a lot of the traditional VCs coming to crypto. If you go look at who invests in FTX, I mean, it can pull up the list, but I mean, it was a who's who's of every single traditional venture fund in the world. If you look at even other crypto companies,

a lot of the big Silicon Valley, Sandhill Road firms invested all these crypto companies, they were calling, they were FOMOing into rounds. That is certainly not happening today. And a lot of the traditional hedge funds were trading the partners capital, they weren't trading external capital. This cycle, which is really interesting, it's been a flip

and it's the much larger asset managers and banks that are coming into crypto. And I do think there are some of these traditional hedge funds that now are trading more actively because it's easy to trade both the CME and the ETF. So I do think a lot of the institutions are here. The piece that's missing is retail certainly isn't here. And the crypto native funds, I think, are struggling to raise more capital. Crypto native VC funds. And that's because, at least at this part of the cycle, there were all these huge raises I saw in the first kind of six months of this year, and they've all fallen flat on launch. Yeah, I mean, I think there's a couple of things, I think broadly across the board.

So you know, for VCs to raise money, they need to have DPI, distributed to paid in capital. Basically, the single most important thing for a VC is the thing that I invested in up 7x in terms of other capital raises. I invested in the seed and now it's raising an F. That's great. And you can mark your book and you can show that that's happening. But it's how much cash have you paid back to your investors? And that's not just a problem in crypto. That's a problem across the rest of the market.

If you look at the equity market, there are very, very few IPOs that are happening, especially in the tech side. And so even equity VCs have really struggled this cycle to pay back investors. And I think that's the case in some crypto funds. But I do think that will start to happen. I think crypto funds will actually have better and higher DPI than equity funds in that crypto tokens are liquid. And also, even though some of these token launches have or all of these token launches have basically been a flop in the last six months. Keep in mind, some of these big crypto funds put a ton of money into work at the seed level, at the pre-seed level, at the series A level below the price point in which these things went liquid. So I actually do think that crypto VCs, relative to equity VCs, which is crazy to say, are

probably returning more money in not all cases, but in a lot of cases to their investor base. But on the liquid side, that's the biggest problem. Look, at some point, if VCs are raising money and they're deploying capital, by the way, I'm talking to these big crypto VC funds, top 10, top 20 funds, a lot of them seem pretty confident that they're going to close the same size fund that they raised in 2021, 2022. So if they raised a $400 million or a $700 million VC fund, a lot of the folks that are talking to are actually pretty confident that they're going to go out again this cycle towards the end of the year and into next year and raise that same fund again. We'll see if that happens. But on the liquid side, that's the big problem

because at some point, somebody needs to buy the thing when it goes to market, right? And if the thing just goes to market, it's a complete flop. That's a problem. And so, I mean, it's something I've been talking about for a while. I'm now seeing, you know, crypto Twitter and others start to talk about it a little bit more. But it's a really important thing because at the end of the day, like, you know, if retail is not buying, well, we need to have liquid funds that are buying. And I do think there's huge opportunities for liquid hedge funds as well.

I mean, a lot of these tokens are coming to the market. They're down 80 to 90 percent. They're depressed. And even if you're not a liquid fund, that's like long but because there's a lot of like liquid crypto hedge funds that are like what what they would describe as liquid venture which means like they're buying and holding for six to twelve months which is kind of like a just it's a venture structure ish for like liquid tokens but i do think in terms of like there's so much volatility in the market um there's so much opportunity to make money especially as a long short hedge fund.

Obviously, scalability is a problem. A lot of these tokens aren't that liquid, which- Yeah, you just can't get enough money in. Right. You can't get enough money in. But I do think there's a lot of opportunities for funds to launch with $100, $200 million. Not $1 billion, not $2 billion, but with a couple of $100 million and make a ton of money. And so I think that's the two biggest things that I'm watching for are can liquid funds raise money? And, you know, I mean, obviously, interest rates are important, but also when retail, I mean, retail is the most important thing, because, you know, it's just I don't know, like, the thing is, are you embarrassed to tell your doctor you work in crypto right now or you're following crypto? And if the answer is yes, then it's a bad part of the cycle.

And I think the answer is yes right now. I don't know. Like I remember like deep post FTX bear market. I tell people I worked in financial data, not crypto. And I'm starting to do that again, which means, you know, like retail is certainly not here. Once you start changing the wording of what you do. I mean, Bitcoin miners are now data centers yeah yeah ai ai ai data centers um i want to interesting what you said that they all are confident that they're going to raise all this money at the end of 2024 and 2025 it kind of reminds me speaking of miners of when all of these miners got super bullish at

the top of the market bought a million uh a million ASICs at the most premium price ever. The market crashed. Those things were delivered in the bear market and then they were basically insolvent. I mean, it's a catch-22, of course. And then all the lenders, by the way, all the lenders took the mining equipment as collateral and now all the lenders are prop Bitcoin miners. Yeah, that's right. But for VCs, I get that it's almost impossible to raise during the bear market because just nobody believes and wants to give you money. But it sounds like they're going to end up raising and deploying right into the top.

Yeah, I mean, we'll see. We'll see. I mean, I think the thing is, if you think about allocators, a lot of the allocators got really burnt, right? Allocators meaning sovereign wealth funds, pension funds, endowments. A lot of them had invested in FTX and some of them had invested in Celsius and other organizations. And so internally, a lot of those teams got a lot of pressure. They were asked to kind of shut down crypto. And now with Bitcoin, the ETF going live, Larry Fink putting his name behind something is, and I know it's been

emphasized, but it's a really big deal. I mean, he's the largest asset manager in the world, right? It gives a lot of these firms confidence in the legitimacy of the industry. It's obviously clear that Bitcoin isn't dying and that parts of crypto will die, but we see that every cycle, like go on the CoinMarketCap Wayback Machine, which I think we've done before, and go look at 2018. The list of the top 20 tokens is very different than it is now, right? So you obviously have things that cycle in and out. But the point being is a lot of these allocators, I think, that were not comfortable with crypto are becoming comfortable with crypto again, and are going to start allocating to funds. The question is, are they going to allocate to VC

funds? Or are they going to allocate to liquid funds? Or are they going to just do picks and shovels and invest into more exchanges again and things like I don't think so. I don't think so. I don't think so. If you look at the equity space in crypto, there are very, very, very, very few exits. It is really like the great thing about a token is you invest in the thing and a a year later, you start getting some of your money out, right? And if you invest in, like, you know, you invest at like the, I don't know, the seed, then they raise a series A two months later, because it's crypto, then they raise a series B three months later, you're then like, potentially in your first unlock out of your so the way that for anyone listening, that's not familiar, you know, generally speaking, VCs have what's called a

one-year cliff, four-year vest, where basically you invest, let's say, $100 in a token. That means after one year, you get $25 worth of the token. And then basically for the next 36 months, you linearly vest. So you get one 36th every 36 months, which is really interesting. And it means that from a VC perspective, when they invest in a token, they could start getting their money back. The problem with equity business and crypto as somebody who unfortunately runs an equity business in crypto. Ten years. Yeah. You know, it's well, I mean, if you look at it, like which equity businesses have actually had exits in this space? Coinbase is on public and has been tremendously successful.

And there have been a bunch of acquisitions like Curve sold to PayPal for a few hundred million dollars. Cyphertrace sold to MasterCard. Crypto Facility sold to Kraken back in the day. Poloniex robbed Circle back in the day. Like there were some of these deals, but you're talking all of these things have been, you know, ErisX sold selling to CBOE. So there are a bunch of these sub $500 million acquisitions that are a combination of equity and cash, but there have been no other IPOs. Circle's not public yet. They're obviously preparing to go public. But you look at the equity space and it's like no one is

actually getting DPI. No one is getting capital back that they can return to their investors. And so I think it's really hard for, and obviously funds are still investing in equity businesses. And hopefully as the market picks up, there'll be more, but it's the same problem with the traditional venture space where there are no IPOs, the market is a bit dead. Right. And so it's, it's so, I mean, I think, I think you're going to see more of this flow into either directly into the ETFs that people are just like, you know what, I'd rather just get Bitcoin exposure as my crypto exposure versus just like investing directly in these funds. Or I think going into funds that are going to continue to do at least 50% of their deployment into token deals rather than equity deals.

Yeah, all that makes sense. I think there's this concern that so many things are going to start unlocking into the fall and the spring, winter, and even in the spring that there's just going to be no retail demand of retails? It's simply higher prices as always. We always ask what's going to be like the killer app, but the reality is like Bitcoin, it's a hundred grand and everybody's going to be interested again. Yeah, look, I mean, I think interest rates falling certainly helps because it creates more of a risk on environment. And as much as we like to paint Bitcoin as being risk off, and it is at times, but, you know,

like the long tail of shit coins are certainly risk on, um, and they're certainly gambling. And I think as interest rates drop, that makes a difference. I think also as Bitcoin rises, like, I think you're going to see, and I could be wrong by the way, like, I mean, I'm, I'm wrong most of the time. I think you'll see Bitcoin dominance continue to rise. And I think as Bitcoin dominance continues to rise, like as Bitcoin outperforms alts, this happens every cycle. What I like to say is when no one's talking about crypto by Bitcoin, when everyone's talking about Bitcoin, start buying shit coins. Then when your grandma calls

you and says, hey, I read about crypto in the New York Times, sell everything. And I think we're at the point where no one's talking about crypto. So it's kind of like this accumulate Bitcoin. And look, Bitcoin could drop to 50K, to drop to 45K. But I think broadly speaking, Bitcoin is going to outperform at least for the time being. And we see that, I've been looking at sector-based data here. And you can see, let me share my screen really quick. Pretty much, am I sharing though, right, Tab? Yeah. So this is like different sectors in crypto and here's like the 90 day, 180 day, you know, 365 day return versus Bitcoin. I mean, you know, obviously you have like centralized exchange tokens, like marginally up versus Bitcoin, but not really. And privacy coins have done well, which I think is kind of interesting

in light of the telegram thing. Maybe that makes a little bit of sense. Privacy coins have done well, but they're mostly not even available on centralized exchanges. So the volume has to be like non-existent. Right, right. Yeah, but like you look at everything else, right? Like, you know, like anything, I mean, metaverse, you know, DEXs,

real world assets, like every single thing is continually underperformed Bitcoin. And materially, I mean, a lot of these sectors, like layer twos are down, what is this, like 50% versus Bitcoin over the last half a year, 38% over the last year, right? I mean, like broadly speaking, over the last year, it looks better for some of these categories of projects, like, you know, but for the most part, I mean, it's pretty bleak. I think it's going to continue to be that way.

But I think once Bitcoin has a big enough run up and to this point of this article, which I think is bullshit that you shared with me, if Bitcoin creates enough millionaires and billionaires, I think that money in the word of Bernie Sanders, millionaires and billionaires, I think that money eventually flows back into alts. And I think people look at Bitcoin and this always happens. They're like, okay, Bitcoin's already at 100K. I lost my opportunity to make money. Everyone said that when Bitcoin was at 10K, by the way, people said that when Bitcoin was at 20K, like Bitcoin is already at X number. I missed my opportunity to 10X. How do I 10X? And then that money starts to funnel downstream into alts. I think, I mean, that's just my experience of what happens in crypto. Yeah, that money starts to funnel downstream into alts i think i mean that's just my experience of of and what happens in crypto yeah that money has to funnel straight down into dogs on ton i mean we're still like i mean literally uh airdrop of a meme coin broke the highly hyped

and discussed of late ton blockchain for seven hours right i mean there's still a hell of a lot of speculation here i think it's just still the crypto natives i just found that story unbelievable this thing went off you know in the midst of like pavel durov getting arrested and all the actual important news around it i mean coin launch like crashes their chain yeah look there will always the number of crypto native degenerates is growing um and and and crypto is a fantastic outlet for people that like participating in degenerate gambling activities uh and i don't think i think that that is a strong base being a large percentage of the male population under the age of 30 seems to like participating

in speculatory... Well, they don't want jobs. Why would you want that? Listen, you alluded to an article I shared with you before. This isn't Fast Company. This isn't some made up thing. And this blew my mind because there's just no way. Here's how many new crypto millionaires and billionaires there are. It said that there was an increase of 95% from 2023, 172,300 individuals across the world who hold 1 million or more in crypto assets. How in the hell would Fast Company possibly figure this out? I mean, Bitcoin is up 130% over the last, not year to date, but over the last year. And so, you know, obviously if people had large positions at Bitcoin, I do think, and I was trying to read through the methodology of the study itself. I only had three minutes to look at it.

So if the authors are listening and we're wrong, forgive us. But like, I think they're probably discounting the fact that there are exchange wallets, the fact that there are institutions that have are exchange wallets, the fact that there are institutions that have multiple different wallets, the fact that like somebody like Michael Saylor probably doesn't have one Bitcoin wallet. He probably has many different Bitcoin wallets, right? And others. And so I think that this is probably highly exaggerated. And also, like, they didn't talk about what the starting balance of these people were. These people could have been people that had $5 million and now have $1 million. But obviously, if they're in Bitcoin,

I mean, the vast majority of Bitcoin holders should be in profit just given how much Bitcoin has moved over the last, you know, forever, other than six months. Can we look at articles like you, obviously, I saw Dave Weisberger in the chat saying, if you're embarrassed to say that you're in crypto it's a good bottom signal which I think we all agreed on Josh's embarrassment of admitting to being crypto is very bullish I agree with him 100 how I, being a psychopath, this study. But did you see this going around that like literally it's like, if you own crypto, you're probably a psychopath. Seems like a bottom signal.

Yeah. Yeah. I'm not surprised. I mean, we are. Kind of. I would have said that we were sociopaths. I don't know if we were born that way. I think, you know, we just became that way because we're in

crypto. But I tweeted this earlier. It's like Bitcoin is the same price as March. I mean, give or take 10 grand on either side, we're at $60,000 per Bitcoin for six months, and people are absolutely losing their minds. I mean, as I said yesterday, I think the liquidations was over 300 million. For what? Because price went back to the price that it was two days ago. I think if you went back a year and said Bitcoin would be $60,000 at the end of next summer, everybody would be celebrating their asses off. Yeah, no, I agree. I agree. I mean, I think people would be surprised by how much ETH has underperformed. I think now people understand why ETH has underperformed. I mean,

like gas fees are too... Right now it's 11 cents for a standard ETH transfer. So there's not much activity occurring on the main Ethereum chain. But yeah, I mean, I think everyone would be happy with 60K Bitcoin. I mean, 60K Bitcoin is great. It's great. It's in a great place. It's tripled since the 2021 top. It's pretty much where it was, or sorry, the 2017 top is pretty much where it was in 2020. It's 2022 top. I mean, 2021 top, we're not very far off from that all-time high. The problem right now is the rest of the industry is getting absolutely, or their alts are getting absolutely pummeled from all-time highs that are, you know, not named Solana with a few exceptions. Yeah. I mean, Solana has done exceptionally well, but that's largely from speculation,

right? I mean, it's largely because of the meme coin casino that's happening there. I just, you know, I just, I really believe it will happen. I think we cycle up as we always do. I'm just kind of looking in my mind for what that catalyst will be, right? That has like, you know, cousins and random high school kids asking you

about this crypto thing. And, you know, people forget it really took Elon Musk talking about Doge really sparked a lot of the last cycle. I mean, that's people were trying to trade memes on centralized exchanges and NFTs went really mainstream. Right. Yeah. I mean, here's, here's a, hold on a second. Here's just down from all time high as like a representative just to kind of see how, you know, like Solana itself is still down 43 percent from all time high. Ripple's down 85 percent or XRP rather. You know, Doge down 86 percent, you know, Cardano down 88 percent, Avalanche down 83 percent. You know, so, you know, Bitcoin Cash down 93 percent, you know, Bitcoin cash down 93%, you know, dot down 92%, right?

So, you know, Bitcoin is near its all-time high, but everything else is very far off. But don't forget, folks, just because things down 90% doesn't mean it can't go down another 90%. That's important. It's like you can always step halfway closer to the wall, infinitely. Never touch the wall. Josh, man, always a pleasure to have you. I can't wait to hang out in Singapore. Guys, follow Josh. It's down in the

description. Any final thoughts before I let you go? No, I think things are going to look up. I'm excited for the spring. I think the spring is going to bring... We'll see. There's a lot of political uncertainty and other things happening in the U S and geopolitical uncertainty. But I think interest rates being cut are obviously priced in or known about, but I do think

continual cutting of interest rates are a good thing. It's something that I'm very much looking forward to. All right, man. Thank you so much guys. Everybody follow Josh. Josh, see you in a couple of weeks. Thanks, Scott. All right, guys. And the one thing we didn't talk about there, obviously, is that NVIDIA is reporting today. And I think that's going to be one of the big stories that's going to determine the next immediate direction of the market. But I can bring on Mr. Inks to discuss that. Is this what everybody's holding their breath for? I mean, stocks are sitting right here kind of near an all-time high, but this is the mammoth in the room, right?

Yeah, yeah. I mean, if there's anything you're watching today, this week with stocks, you know, NVIDIA's report, the earnings report here after the market closes is probably what you're watching. So, yeah, you know, I think, you know, importantly, everybody was freaked out when we had the August 5th, the drop there, right? Everybody's like, oh, my God, it's the end of the end carry trade. It's all going to unwind. It's just the beginning of the end. And what we've actually seen since then is we've seen stocks rally, right? As a matter of fact, the Dow just printed a new all-time high. And so not only did it erase the August 5th drop, but that was the end of a decline

that started back in mid-July. And so it completely retraced all that loss. Now, when we look at it, we're actually in something called a breadth surge. So the breadth of stocks that have come with the rally. Well, actually, let me put on this other chart here real quick. Yeah, it's not just the big ones anymore. Yeah, this is the big thing. Tech's taking a breather at the moment, but generally across all the sectors, you're seeing a lot, a lot more stocks rallying than declining, right? Advancing than declining. And so that's created this thing that we call a breath surge. And that's usually quite positive for the market. It's really strong because what it says is it's not just that one sector that's kind of carrying market. It's really strong, because what it says is, it's not just, you

know, the one sector that's kind of carrying it, everybody's kind of getting in on the rally. And that and what that means, basically, is people are not feeling all that worried, they're not feeling all that scared about things that are going on. So it's kind of different than what you get if you're on social media, where everybody's, you know, been calling for the, you know, the sky to fall for the last two years. The actual money,

even by the people that have money, is going into the market, right? It's pushing it up. Rotated into higher risk. We saw it. NVIDIA crashed 13% that time. But instead, the big fear was that was going to send the whole stock market down because NVIDIA was this mammoth. And what actually happened was then Alphabet and Meta and all those made new highs because they just rotated another stock. And then when we got the interest rate kind of cut indication coming into this election, it all went into the Russell and small caps. It's actually a cycle of more risk on. There's no indication that any cash is leading the market. Now, listen, eventually, once all that risk gets on, there's going to be some sort of flush when it gets to the riskiest end of it, just like Bitcoin down to the big, high,

you know, large cap, mid cap, small cap. But for now, just evidence is there that this is more risk, not less. Yeah, exactly. Exactly. And I mean, we can even see it here within these. So we've got the NASDAQ here on the left in the middle is the S&P. And over here on the right is the Dow. And again, you know, the Dow showing us with it making its all time high here, having completely retraced everything they're showing us because Dow's the more broad based, the broad based index, right? Versus, say the NASDAQ, which is extremely tech heavy. And as we said, tech has taken a breather, right? The S&P is pretty tech heavy as well, but a bit more broad based. So it's kind of like the in between of the two there. And so we can see that this more broad based rally reflected across the

three indexes there, kind of showing us exactly what we're looking for. And so, you know, again, making an all time high here. This is a three wave move down. We broke up above it says this is corrective. So we should be seeing a new all time high coming out with the S&P. Same thing with the Nas know, while everybody was still screaming for the last few weeks that we're going to continue down lower and lower. And there's a few well-known, well-followed and, you know, well-credentialed individuals out there who were saying the same thing. You know, what we've done is we've continued to rally up higher. So, you know, the things they say may turn out to be correct at some point, but let's face it, folks, if you're early in the market, that's the same thing as being wrong. Right. Um, most of us out there don't have the, uh, the wherewithal and the, the financial backing to withstand two years of being wrong or being early like Michael

Burry was there back, uh, prior to the GFC GFC, right? He finally, you know, it finally crashed. He finally got his vindication, but for two years he had to fight everybody trying to get their money back out of his fund and suing him and everything because he was so early. And so, you know, as far as being a trader investor in the market, I think you have to kind of take that really and think about what that's saying. You know. It's saying, hey, listen, even if what you're saying may be technically sound, it could take quite a while for it to play out. Or something else may play out a year or two or three years later, five years later, and you'll go, oh, look, I was finally right. But it could be something completely else. So pay more attention to what's

actually going on with the charts than a um, than a lot of other stuff. Let's talk about what's going on in the charts. How are you looking at Bitcoin, et cetera, right now? Yeah. So real quick here with Nvidia, since that's coming up tonight. Yeah. You know, if we can get a breakout above, uh, what is this here? It looks like 136, 15. Uh, it looks like it's a three wave down here, descending wedge, throw under, nice rally up. So as far as the wedge goes, we hit the target on the wedge, which is the beginning of the wedge here. But if we can get that break out there, that's just, you know, this just, I think, sends NVIDIA on for, you know, its next trip higher. So I'm really excited to see how this

turns out after hours here when we get the numbers in. Let me see here. We've got a used to be used to be land I believe right a V. Yeah. Yeah, so we've got this one going on here. Um, if I'm looking at here, I think we've still got a bit higher on this. So I think we've got a one, two, three, four here. We've got a five still coming. So if we can get a rally from here, looking up there about 171 or so to finish this next move up before we do pull it back. So that's what I'm kind of looking at. What is this?

This is the daily here. Let me jump into the four hour real quick uh yeah what was it that's a nice uh resistance support flip yeah yeah yeah we definitely want to get above this right here uh impulsively and close above it here about 130 131 dollars if we can break out above this swing high here at about 140 139 99 so 140 dollars uh i want to look up there around 171 171 and a half on that potential uh potential target there for that a ton been talking a lot right because of what happened there uh my count says potentially four, flat correction here. We might have a deep wave two into this demand structure, but it is pretty deep, so I'm cautious about it.

But if we can break out above, well, in this case, it would be an A, a B, and a C. So it's got to be above $7.10 or so. That would then say to me, okay, we're on wave three up here toward, wait, what did I say? Did I say $7.10? Okay, yeah. That would give us a rally up here toward $10 and then up here toward $11.75. If we sweep this low, that invalidates that. So if we drop below $4.81 here instead, that validated. Um, but if you're looking to get in potentially earlier, you know, if you're more, if you're more risk tolerant, I, what I would look for is a breakout above, what is this right here? $5 and 99 cents. So just right there, it's right above the, uh, the range EQq right here if we can get above that that will say

that likely the bottom is in um and that would be uh probably the best earliest place to get in you you want to give it a little bit of room yeah i all i see when i'm looking at your chart is uh that big old daily bullish divergence there with oversold rsi and it's there i just checked on the four hours well yeah yeah yeah it's a great setup and that's there. I just checked on the four hours as well. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. It's a great setup. And that's actually why I had it on the daily here because it's such a great setup. And that drop is such large volume here. But even here's the interesting thing. If we're looking at volume and price action, the fact that we have such a huge volume spike down here and it couldn't break down below the swing low. That interests me. So if we do that and print bullish RSI divergence and we bottomed out on stoke RSI here,

to me, the setup is there for that to potentially be the bottom. But of course, we do want to get some sort of confirmation on that. We don't just want to jump in all willy-nilly because Lord knows these things can still go. But definitely a lot of volume coming in down here at this, you know, this drop down into this low here and still holding above that swing low. So that's a good sign if we get some follow through.

Yeah. So may not be the end of time. Let me jump on Bitcoin here real quick. So here, you know, again, big picture, nothing's changed for me. Still looks like, you know, way for 38 to pull back. Generally expected, you know, again, big picture, nothing's changed for me. Still looks like, you know, wave four, 38.2 pullback, generally expected, you know, our wave four target. This, you know, because of all the overlapping price action, I've been talking about the fact that it looked like potentially a leading diagonal. I thought we may possibly get one more push up higher here, but we didn't.

We got the drop. So usually when we have this converging price action in the form of a diagonal, usually what we'll get when it's done is we'll get a sharp drop off, which is what we got here. And often on diagonals, we'll only get around a 38.2 pullback. And we do that because all that overlapping price action. So you get like a 1, 2, three, four, five kind of thing here. And you just have all that overlap. It usually catches it as support. So I'm watching this right now. We could see it go down to 56, 640 or even 53, 495. But right now it's kind of interesting. I like the amount of pullback we had on the Stoke RSI on yesterday's drop,

because in the grand scheme of things, we didn't drop that much, but we had a great response here with the Stochastic RSI, which usually is going to suggest that overall, we're more bullish than bearish. So it's a bullish sign on that drop, right? Because what happens if you get a drop and you're not getting a real reset with your stochastic RSI, what that's telling you is your supply, your sellers are really, really, really in control and you're probably gonna head a lot lower.

So I'm encouraged by what I'm seeing here. If we zoom in a little bit closer, you can see that we're finding support right around that S1 pivot on the hourly. Really what we want to see is continue to move upward, right? If we can get an impulsive breakout and close here above, what is this here? Right around 62,450 or so, depending on the chart you're looking at. That's an hourly pivot. That should signal we're going to head up and right now based on this pullback uh five waves up from this swing low here so this would be a one and then a two here

let me get that out of the way there uh yeah so this would be you know a one and a two well five waves up is going to be right around 101 000 so it gets us right around that key 100 000 level that we've been talking about is likely going to see some, some rejection, um, when we get there. Uh, so I like that. The only other thing here on this is the red line. Here's the 200 MA on the daily, the blue lines, the 50, um, you know, we had our, our bearish, you know, a death cross here. And right here, we're close to doing a, um golden cross right and again it's similar to i think we talked about this last time similar the same thing we had this sideways over here we had the cross the cross and then the cross back and so um you know overall not not not overly too worried about that i just seen a lot of people talk about it. But I think we're all right with that as well there on Bitcoin.

Let me see here. Let me show you this real quick, man. Look at Zoom here. Look at what Zoom did. I mean, it's only down like 98% or something from the COVID highs that we did. Oh, yeah. It's all the way retraced. Yeah.

We had COVID highs up here. It just made you fall. But highs up here Unbelievable Mount Everest chart Looks like a mountain, it's crazy Yeah, we had this great kind of Wedges kind of coming all together here And we had the breakout of that Just a great big move up Into that

You know, it's the yearly pivot It shows up on the weekly here So, you know, I like that move up off there. Um, we're, we've almost kind of made it to the top of this wedge. We really kind of hit that target area there. So, uh, what I'm looking for potentially, if we can continue pushing up here right around that $76. Um, and then if we can get through that, I'm looking up here, probably around a hundred dollars as the next target on that so i see some potential here for it but we definitely need to see some follow-through

we'll probably get some pullback along the way this is the weekly chart but man what a move there and then on piton here same kind of idea huge wedge coming down into it nice strong breakout that's what we look for we for. When I say what we're looking for is impulsive breakout and close. Yeah. This is what I'm looking for. Large candle spread, large spike of volume. It doesn't have to

be as large, but this is significant here. This is the largest volume they've had since way back over here on February 7th of 22. This is significant coming out of this. We had a little throw under here on February 7th of 22. So this is significant coming out of this. We had a little throw under here, some sideways, then boom, pop up.

You know, if I'm looking at this just as a pattern, to me this suggests that a bottom is likely in here. This suggests that we're gonna get locked down from monkeypox. Man, don't go there. If Zoom and Peloton are both pumping after uh whatever yeah man you know it's always something right uh somebody knows something yeah if we can overcome this uh this kind of area right here around what is that seven dollars and 25 cents here oh i'm sorry no

that's uh six dollars and 62 cents this kind of support resistance area here if If we can pop up above that, I think we're pretty much good to go bottoms in and we should be heading up for quite a bit. But a good start here on this breakout. If we're pulling back, we just want to see it stay above this descending resistance to continue that flood up there. And so that would feel pretty good right there. Let me see here. I've got here we go. Let's get some more alts here. We'll look at some alts. Alts, you know, again, you want to you want to be a little careful here. But this does look like a third wave. And so this would, you know, that would make this potentially fourth wave here on the pullback. You know, if we're

looking here, 1234. So if we can get a rally from about where we're at, this is the weekly. But if we can get a rally somewhere between where we're at in this maybe 16 cent area, that would give us a target up here about 53 cents for this larger wave three. If we jump into the daily, you'll see the daily has almost reset down here and oversold the Stoke RSI.

We've got a lot of overlapping price action, looks like A, B, and then one, two, three, four, five here. So right into this fair value gap sets up, we've got the low volume node right here where we're kind of dipping into. So I would watch for a rally on this. And again, if we can get that, that gives us that 53 cent target there on rare USDT.

We've got BNX USDT here. Basically this one here, this is three waves on the pullback. We've broken out above that third wave so quick easy target uh gives us a two dollar and forty cent uh area to look at minimally so you know again here on the daily you can see stoke rsi is almost reset down here rsi is finding support right around neutral we like all that so the the pullback may be done it may pull back a bit further here but um on the breakout above this swing high at what is that a dollar 68 or so

we should be looking probably around two dollars and 40 cents at least for that target there okay uh dgen why because we like the word right um this isGEN USDT. This chart is actually on OKEx there. But it does appear we've got five waves up and we've got three waves back around the 50% right here into the low volume node, right here into the, you know, fair value gap. I mean, it just looks clean all the way around. So I would look to see if we can get some continued follow through here. This is the daily we've reset down in Stoke RSI. And so yeah, you know, if I'm looking at this, I'm watching for this rally here. To confirm this, we need to break out above wave B here at 005413. If we can get that, that should signal that wave three is in progress up here to 0.016580. So a nice strong move up is

what we'd be looking for next on that. By the way, you know, this is one, two, three, four, five waves down here. So it seems to be setting it up. We'll see if we can get that, but it does look like it wants to go from here. Let me see here. I've got one more here. ATR USDT. This is on the next one here. I believe this is potentially a 1, 2, 3, and we've got a 4. So I'm looking for a pullback down toward this 0.01057 to 0.01218 area here. And if we can get that, that should give us a minimum target up there at about 0.02243 here on that pullback. And so then that would give us, you know, again, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. And then we'd look for a pullback again toward the same area here

before we kind of rally up but this has been a this has been a good mover i'm not gonna lie uh not that i trade on mechs or anything but i did see it looks good it was a nice breakout of this um descending resistance here uh even though it didn't you know it wasn't impulsive on the breakout it was still you know you've got this kind of this convergence of price here in the form of a wedge, throw under, sharp move back up, kind of sideways, and then took off again. So, I mean, you know, it's done pretty well. Again, I don't trade on MEX.

I don't trade most of these, but the chart looks pretty interesting there. So if anybody's looking at that, they got excited because it went up. You don't want to buy it, you know, after it's done the big move, you want to give it a moment to breathe and then look for your potential entry on there. Um, other than that, I guess we can look here at PayPal real quick. This is one, um, you know, that I talked about the bottom likely being in right around this area. And if it fell further to 45 is where we'd be looking. And it was like right there the day of the day before that it happened. It's rallied great off there since. Right now, you know, just kind of doing some sideways here, looking to get up. I've got my next target at about 7460. And then another pullback. And then we'd have a target up there potentially around 70, you know, 77 and a half to 78 and a half kind of area on that,

just depending on how exactly this plays out here. But overall, you know, PayPal still looking all right, still doing the move here, taking that move out, breakout higher and heading up. So, you know, I like what it is. That's been a rally of about, how far is it so far? Right there, about 45.5% from back here at the end of October of last year. So still looks good. Still looks fun. I just think people are a bit more freaked out than what they need to be at the moment. You know, again.

I mean, all these charts look good. There's no bearishness in sight. And, I mean, maybe this is that final rotation of zoom and peloton are pumping but uh you know before a little bit of a correction but i mean you know it's selection season it's the end of the summer things i think maybe september will be kind of like uh slow and choppy but maybe floating up and And then I think we go. Yeah. September is historically. Yeah. September is historically not so great for stocks.

But we've had this great run in, in, in, you know, August here. So I could definitely see a pullback halfway through the month, three quarter of the way through the month. You know, we get our rate cut there, you know, potentially 25 basis points, which really is, it's really nothing honestly at the end of the day um but you know it's it gives people a little excitement so yeah yeah well it's gonna be interesting to see how this all closes the month i mean bitcoin depending on where it closed could have the most epic down wick on the monthly chart you know a couple days ago it was actually turned slightly green i think for august so that was pretty crazy when you've dropped to below $50,000.

All right, guys. You can follow TX West Capital on X. Once again, I just got a hype. We've got thewolfofallstreets.com launching in six days and one hour. So you guys go check it out. All you're going to do when you check it out, by the way, is just watch that thing count down. But I want to see how many of you will just stare at that thing that's the clock that's all I got man thanks Chris everybody else

I will see you tomorrow peace