The Wolf Of All Streets - Super Bullish: Bitcoin Mania Returns! S&P Embraces Crypto, Meta Preps Stablecoin

Episode Date: May 16, 2025

The Friday Five with NLW! ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEKDAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/ ►► Arch Public Unleash algorithmic trading. Discover how algorithms used by hedge-funds are now accessible to traders looking for unparalleled insights and opportunities! 👉https://archpublic.com/ ►►TRADING ALPHA READY TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS? THE BEST TRADERS IN CRYPTO ARE RELYING ON THESE INDICATORS TO MAKE TRADES. Use code '10OFF' for a 10% discount. 👉https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://x.com/scottmelker Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.io/ Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c #Bitcoin #Crypto #Investments The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

Bitcoin mania has returned as more companies are becoming Bitcoin treasury companies coinbase is added to the SMP Galaxy digital going public today and eToro having a smashing debut IPO a lot going on in the crypto market. Good thing we have NLW here to unpack it all on the Friday five. Let's go. What's up everybody I'm Scott Malcar also known as the wolf of all streets. Before we get started please subscribe to the channel hit the like button we got super rugged by stream yard before even just now when I tried to play the theme music it just sat there and did nothing so clearly we are living in the glitch.

I'm used to living in the glitch on Twitter spaces like every single time but not usually on YouTube. Yeah, we actually have a shockingly few technical issues with this so we were do. the Okay, let's do a show. The first thing on the menu before we dive into all of the things Bitcoin related is tariffs and inflation. We're going to knock it out and get it out of the way. Obviously we had a CPI report for April that came in lower than expectations, meaning that those who are expecting tariffs to have an immediate effect on inflation has not happened. Trump says Fed must lower rates after soft inflation report. So once again,

going back to bullying Chairman Powell to try to get this done. And of course, you know, we just had US consumer prices rose less than expected in April. A lot of commentary on why this happened, but I'd love for you to break it down. Yeah, I mean, look, I think that there are there are a couple things that are going on here. One, maybe the relevant context for this is markets are watching this really closely because part of you know, then the next set of macro factors outside of tariffs are going to be rate policy. And Powell can't really do anything living under the gun of potential increased inflation.

So the Fed is watching both inflation and potentially softening labor markets really, really closely. And as markets and the administration want Powell to cut, there are a set of things that have to happen for him to consider that, one of them being not seeing a bump in inflation. Now, one print that is sort of light like this does not mean that Powell is going to jump out of his seat to go cut rates, but it's certainly positive, especially people

were wondering if we were already going to see some of these tariff changes show up in this. My sense is that it's probably a little bit too soon to see those changes really show up. So it's kind of the next couple of months are going to be more significant when it comes to the Fed's analysis. But you know, especially as like we discussed last week, markets are looking for reasons to be enthusiastic again, they're looking for

reasons to be less concerned about all of these big changes. And this is a an inflation print that fits firmly in the okay, maybe this isn't so bad. Maybe we were overreacting sort of you know, set of factors. And that's a positive thing, at least from a again, a market perspective. Yeah, on along who we reference from Bloomberg all the time on the show, because Mike McGlone works with her said the Fed likely won't take much signal from April CPI report. As we

think their internal forecast point to higher inflation in months ahead, we maintain our baseline that the Fed will cut rates only once this year, by 25 basis points at the December meeting. So a lot of people still not buying it. She said that the inflation impacts won't be felt for quite a while. And if you actually dig into the numbers, electronics were up the highest they've ever been and things directly impacted by 130 plus percent tariffs or 120% plus tariffs in

China were impacted, and it's going to take a little while. So I guess we'll see what happens, but I think the most important point for the purpose of this show is what you said, is that markets just want an excuse to go up. Yep, yep. I mean, look, there was, this only had a chance to be bad. It couldn't really be anything other than baseline,

or really bad. And so markets are just glad that it wasn't bad. Yeah, that makes perfect sense. The second story of the week obviously has to be Coinbase mania. Coinbase stock soars 24% as inclusion in S&P 500 singles dramatic turnaround for crypto industry. This was huge.

It should be noted that they weren't just included. They weren't coming in at 500. They're in the top 150 companies in the S&P 500. And obviously we saw the stock soar massively. Now we have this situation where even the biggest haters of crypto and Bitcoin definitely have exposure to crypto and Bitcoin now because everybody is indexed to the S&P 500 and has some exposure there. Really interesting.

Brian Armstrong, obviously having his celebration here. He says it right there. Crypto is about to be in everyone's 401k. But then we have to talk about the, of course, because of its crypto side of what happened, Coinbase gets public, it's all hype, their stock goes up massively, and then they have an admitted data breach, tried to get ransom for $20 million and have admitted that we're all getting fished by weird texts because one of their employees basically got bribed to give away our information.

Good times at Coinbase. Look, it's a really unfortunate timing. The reality is that this is just part and parcel of existing and operating in the world now. I think that the market not just crypto. Yeah, I think the market's reaction to it is fairly muted for that reason. You know, it's it makes for a good companion headline for outlets that are looking for a positive story followed by a negative story.

But ultimately, the bigger deal obviously, when when the history books are written as Coinbase entering the S&P 500, as you pointed out, you know, even the haters having exposure now in in a way that they don't get to opt out of. And more than anything, just the relentless march of legitimization of the industry that this represents. Yeah. And so this is obviously a huge story. I don't think anyone saw it come really interesting without any anticipation or any major pump in the stock ahead of it. So I thought that was really interesting just for quick to wrap up the Coinbase side of this. They think that it could cost about 180 to 400 million to deal with that data breach. I think last month someone reported there was

about 40 million lost to these phishing attacks on Coinbase alone. So obviously a problem, but I definitely applaud them for looking to solve it. But alongside this news, we kind of have this IPO mania, right? We have Galaxy Digital going live today. Of course, this article reports 295 million Q1 loss before a NASDAQ US listing, but that is happening today. Great to see that for Novogratz. And perhaps the biggest story is the success, which we've talked about a few times of the eToro IPO, right? They started at about 45 bucks, ended up raising at 52 bucks, closed the first day of trading at 67 bucks. This is the first time in a very long time that I've seen an IPO at all, much less one

in crypto do so well coming into it. And then into the first days. We can get into this other story later, but obviously they're a crypto business, but it's not the bulk of their business anymore. Yeah. I mean, listen, you know, I think that the IPO window has been closed for an enormously long time. And I think that this was very surprising to people to see, as you pointed out, an upsizing of the initial price, an over, you know, more demand that they could handle and a pop on the first day. Like we just haven't had IPOs like that in any area for a very long time. You know, for me,

as obviously a single data point is not a trend, but you have to think that a lot of companies who were maybe holding back from their IPOs are now saying, man, is this the window? Do we do we get in now? And so I will be really interested to see not just in crypto, but in general, there are there are a slew of companies that have been hanging back, you know, so so will we see kind of a rush in? I'm not sure, but it's, you know, very very positive because, listen, as much as eToro can say that it's other things, I think it is broadly associated with crypto.

I don't think anyone's getting into this thinking, oh yeah, and they also do crypto. It's Super Bowl ads, we're crypto. It's crypto through and through. Yeah. I mean, it's an honorable mention has to be Robinhood's acquisition of WonderFi this week in Canada. And big news, obviously, that Robinhood's going to Canada,

but the bigger news that they decided to go crypto first. It's kind of a signal of the same thing. Yeah, one more. Boy, WonderFi, the stories I have with you. Oh, well, yeah, from the FTX days and Mr. Wonderful. I can't even imagine. One day we'll have some drinks drinks on a Friday morning and we'll share them all here. A couple tequila shots and get you loosened up and see what you got. Yeah, I will say publicly for the record. I had nothing to do in once again anyways. Good for him. He's much nicer than I thought. Yeah, he's a pretty nice guy.

I've met him quite a few times. Anyways, the next story has to be Bitcoin Treasury companies, obviously. So we got David Bailey of Bitcoin Magazine and Bitcoin native holding company Nakamoto announced merger with Kindly MD to establish Bitcoin Treasury Company. I think they raised about 700 million if I'm not mistaken, but it was supposed to be two or three. So once again, this was sort of a story of oversubscribe. As we cooked through these, Tether buys 459 million Bitcoin in Bitcoin, I should say,

for 21 capital. This of course, the company formed by SoftBank, Canter, Fitzgerald, Tether, we've talked about it led by Jack Muller. So we're seeing them actually make a big public buy. MetaPlanet now has more Bitcoin than El Salvador. So listen, we know that MicroStrategy or strategy has continued buying by the billions. Sailor isn't stopping, but the clones doing it slightly differently

are popping up everywhere. I have my concerns about this to be honest, if it continues, but right now, nice to see these companies buying Bitcoin. Yeah, I mean, listen, this is the week that this trend tipped over into an area where some people are worried about it being this cycles bubble, right? And, and or just have concerns around what it actually means. I think what's interesting to watch is, you know, the the non Bitcoiners are always going to have their critiques and whatever, you know, who cares about sort of Peter shifts analysis about things like this. But you're seeing more diversity of opinion within the Bitcoin community as well. Marty Bent, who obviously, you know, from, from, from, you know, content creation and Bitcoin investment fame, had an interesting tweet where he basically said, look, this is cool. But what's even cooler is actual operating companies building real things using Bitcoin as a treasury asset, you know, to build things rather than just sort of being a Bitcoin only game. And I think that it's, you know, listen, I think it's it's healthy to have

an emergent conversation because for a very long time, obviously, you know, no one is going to be critical of sailor or micro strategy, because they're, they're keeping us afloat for for a good portion of time there. But look, markets right now seem to really like this, they're willing to pay double what Bitcoin costs to get in on these companies. And so we'll just see how that shakes out. Yeah, I just don't want to see 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 of them. Right?

I'm here for every single company in the world adding some Bitcoin to their balance sheet, but effectively becoming a hedge fund to manage a treasury of Bitcoin and find creative ways to buy it concerns me because as much as we don't think there could ever be a Bitcoin drawdown again in this new era of the super cycle and euphoria, well, if Bitcoin goes down 50, 60%, these people are going to be aggressively tested as to their willingness to sell.

I'm not saying it will cause the bubble. I'm saying that if we have a 40% retracement, it turns into a 60% retracement when they all sell off. Yeah, absolutely. It creates structural risk that Bitcoin did not have before that even it's incredibly dedicated, Hodler-based cannot beat because we're not dealing with like individual people deciding whether or not

to sell Bitcoin, we're dealing with forced sellers, and that's a very different dynamic that we've witnessed over and over again. Look, I will say this right now, there is no way, no way, if these companies continue to build that some version of that doesn't happen at some point, it is just it's impossible for it not to that is there's actively managed humans fuck up just is what it is. Yeah. So, you know, there are lots and lots of different ways it plays

out how severe it is has to do a lot with management and the way that things are structured. And like, there's plenty of ways to de risk those things. These are all smart, thoughtful people who have who are not immune to these sort of things. So I think that there's still plenty of room for optimism and excitement. I think the fact that the market wants this is validating. So it's a good thing now, it just creates new risk, you know? But new things create new risk.

These three are good. I mean, these are three groups that I'm perfectly happy are doing this and I think are responsible and understand it. Like I said, it's the 10th, 11th or 12th one that jumps in at the dead top and goes all in and gets wrecked. But hey, we'll see what happens.

Our next story here, SEC's crypto broker rule likely to get overhauled. Atkins says, I guess we can just wrap this all one up. In Paul Atkins in general, he gave the keynote address at the Crypto Task Force Roundtable on tokenization. Clearly a massive Bitcoin bull, crypto bull who gets it, wants this industry to thrive in the United States. And of course, US SEC considers conditional

exemption for tokenized securities. It's kind of a recognition of Hester Perce's safe harbor. SEC is pretty favorable to crypto right now, a little different than in the past. Yeah. I mean, look, I think all of us who were so excited about MIT lectures are still a little bit All of us who were so excited about MIT lectures are still a little bit, you know, shell shocked and not willing to be as excited about this one particular thing as perhaps we have in the past, but all signals are positive. And I think that, you know, to safe harbor idea, whatever version of it becomes real, where crypto, instead of debating why crypto isn't equity-like, it is allowed to explore its equity-like properties that are equity-like, but not equity exactly, in a place where you're not going to get sort of like, destroyed, either, you know, from a, you know, mismanagement perspective, or from a regulatory perspective. I think that a lot of the exciting and interesting things that crypto could do live in those realms of sort of like what was previously just an unregistered

security. And so I would be very enthusiastic about there being a place, you know, where people can experiment and explore things. I think a lot of really interesting things come out of that. I think that more than anything we've seen so far would ignite a new sort of, you know, bull run, whatever, just like actual cycle of innovation and enthusiasm and potential new participants. We're just, we've sort of scraped against all the things that aren't security-ish that we can do, you know? And we've had obviously a lot of positive rhetoric

from the administration and from the regulators about bringing crypto home and United States becoming the crypto capital of the world. These are the actual steps that prove they mean it. Yep. Right. So we need to see these things happen in my mind. Yep. I also think that the faster we can get safe harbor type rules in place that allow people to get in and go through a full cycle of being in a safe harbor and whatever sort of registration they have at the other end of it, the harder it gets for an unfavorable administration to just shift it out, right? If there is a new structure that's built that is proven to, you know, allow for these sort of opportunities without wrecking retail, you know,

it creates a lot more inertia for someone to have to sort of unwind that later. Yeah. And the final story that we have today is surrounding stable coins in general. There's more USD and DT in circulation than ever as Tether supply crosses 150 billion mark clever tweet here from Palo Alto. We know the CEO of Tether 150 billion next door, one trillion. That's a big jump, but hey, I'm here for it. And of course, in the midst of the stable coin madness,

and maybe we should even talk about the fact that there's been a bit of thawing again on the stable coin legislation, and maybe we will actually see that soon, but we have this guy, Mark Zuckerberg back, Meta and Tox that deploy stable coin three years after giving up on landmark crypto project. We went from Libra to DM to nothing to now they're coming back with a wallet potentially

and a stablecoin at Meta. Lots to talk about here on stablecoins. 100% inevitable. Like, it made sense why Zuckerberg wanted this the first time. It just was the US was absolutely not about that. It was a really bad time for him politically. He had radically underestimated how angry people were on both sides of the aisle coming off of the previous election. So it was never going to happen. Right. It was very clearly never going to happen in that little version. But to the extent that big tech companies are allowed to issue stable coins, they will all do it. They will all have their own internal currency.

It's just going to make sense for them. You're going to have an on ramp where you convert your USD into, you know, Instagram coin or Meta coin or, you know, LinkedIn coin, which, you know, is will be the lamest of them, of course. And it's just going to be like that. So I mean, honestly, though, the it is no guarantee that that is a thing that will be allowed to happen. In fact, some of the Republican holdouts to the stablecoin legislation, that is the exact thing that they do not want to happen. I think Josh Hawley, that's sort of one of his biggest concerns is he does not want Big Tech to be able to accrue more power by virtue of having a stablecoin. So no guarantee that it'll actually be a regulatorially, a regulatory enabled, but to the extent that it is, you better believe Zuckerberg will be there first. And do we believe that we're going to actually get this legislation now that it's been halted

and the initial vote sort of failed? I think yes. I actually think that it just, I actually think that the Democrat, the antio Democrats did themselves a real disservice. I think that they looked petulant and silly. I think that they frustrated their peers who do have really big issues with the way that the legislation was written, but who actually still wanted to get it done. I think that obstructionism's costly political theatrics. And so, you know, I think that we will get there with something and I, you know, I don't know.

I don't think that it's going to be much better for that walkout that was seen last week, but we'll see. Totally agree. That was it. We cooked through it despite the technical issues and me having to play producer and set up a stream in less than three minutes, but I think we're amazing, to be honest.

There you go. NLW, thank you so much. As always, guys, follow, listen to the breakdown, follow him at NLW on X and otherwise we will see you all next Friday. Thanks everyone. Thanks, man. Later. Let's go. Thanks for watching guys!