The Wolf Of All Streets - The Bitcoin Dip You HAVE TO BUY Is Coming

Episode Date: December 28, 2023

In anticipation of the potential approval of Bitcoin ETF, I am joined by Eric Balchunas, Senior ETF Analyst at Bloomberg. Together, we will delve into the potential implications for the short and long-term price movements of Bitcoin and explore the reasons why the approval of Bitcoin ETF could be an opportunity to buy Bitcoin at a discount. Eric Balchunas: https://twitter.com/EricBalchunas Dan The Chart Guy: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCnqZ2hx679DqRi6khRUNw2g ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEK DAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/   ►►OKX SIGN UP FOR AN OKX TRADING ACCOUNT THEN DEPOSIT & TRADE TO UNLOCK MYSTERY BOX REWARDS OF UP TO $60,000!  👉 https://www.okx.com/join/SCOTTMELKER  ►►TRADING ALPHA READY TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS? THE BEST TRADERS IN CRYPTO ARE RELYING ON THESE INDICATORS TO MAKE TRADES. USE CODE ‘2MONTHSOFF’ WHEN VISITING MY LINK.  👉 https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker  ►►THE DAILY CLOSE BRAND NEW NEWSLETTER! INSTITUTIONAL GRADE INDICATORS AND DATA DELIVERED DIRECTLY TO YOUR INBOX, EVERY DAY AT THE DAILY CLOSE. TRADE LIKE THE BIG BOYS. 👉 https://www.thedailyclose.io/   ►►NGRAVE This is the coldest hardware wallet in the world and the only one that I personally use. 👉https://www.ngrave.io/?sca_ref=4531319.pgXuTYJlYd ►►NORD VPN  GET EXCLUSIVE NORDVPN DEAL - 40% DISCOUNT! IT’S RISK-FREE WITH NORD’S 30-DAY MONEY-BACK GUARANTEE. PROTECT YOUR PRIVACY! 👉 https://nordvpn.com/WolfOfAllStreets   ►►COINROUTES TRADE SPOT & DERIVATIVES ACROSS CEFI AND DEFI USING YOUR OWN ACCOUNTS WITH THIS ADVANCED ALGORITHMIC PLATFORM. SAVE TONS OF MONEY ON TRADING FEES LIKE THE PROS! 👉 http://bit.ly/3ZXeYKd  Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://twitter.com/scottmelker   Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.io   Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe   Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c   #Bitcoin #Crypto #ETF The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

There's seemingly increasing consensus that the approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF will be a classic sell the news event. I'm not sure that I agree, but Cathie Wood said so, quite a few analysts says so. And a lot of people are pointing to the fact that institutions are largely positioned already as if the approval is guaranteed and will take profit if we see a move to the upside on that approval. We're going to discuss that and everything happening with the ETF, which is now only 13 days away, 13 days away from that date that everybody's been talking about January 10th. I've got Eric Balchunas from Bloomberg here to discuss the man who's become an absolute rock star on crypto Twitter as a result of this Bitcoin spot ETF saga that we've all been experiencing

for the past six to nine months. And we've got chart guys at the end, of course, to discuss everything happening with the markets. Let's go. What is up, everybody? I'm Scott Melker, also known as the Wolf of Wall Street. Before we get started, please subscribe to the channel and hit that like button. I'm just going to go ahead and bring Eric on right now so we can talk about ETF Palooza. We're in the homest stretch here, man. You probably haven't slept in a year, it feels like. It is exhausting, but it's also just wildly fascinating. So I guess my juice is flowing. Some of us analysts just have been obsessed with it.

But yeah, it's exhausting. Well, I would say that ETFs, in my experience, have never been quite this much in the spotlight for a single asset, right? Have you ever seen 12, 13, 14 filers awaiting at the same time, on the same date, potentially the approval of something for a brand new asset class? Or is this really a unicorn situation? No. Yeah, this is a unicorn or a one of one situation. First of all, just the idea that ETFs only break into a new asset class once a decade. So to me, this is sort of like, I don't know, an eclipse. If I was a weatherman, this would be like an eclipse or Halley's Comet. It's just a rare situation that just really gets your attention because it's different than the normal cloudy, rainy, sunny weather thing you're used to

covering all the time. This is a scientific marvel. And so that's one thing. Number two is we've never had multiple ETFs launched on the same day that do the same thing. We've never had a complete fair horse race. The only other one that was like this was the Ether futures, but we'll call those a really, really boring undercard. The gold ETF, which is probably the closest parallel, that launched alone. So GLD launched, became a big deal, and it's still a big deal. It's still the most traded gold ETF to this day. Having that little bit of head start really helps. And it's still a big deal. It's still the most traded gold ETF to this day, that having that little bit of head start really helps. And we've seen that over and over first to market is everything. This is a literal race, which is

why we're dubbing it the Kentucky Derby because it literally reminds me of the Kentucky Derby at some point, we may even have odds, you know, two to one, four to one, eight to one. We've already on Yahoo yesterday, and they asked me for my favorites, my long shots and my dark horse, and I totally obliged. So yeah, this is really, really different, exciting. And that's why I've spent so much time and brainpower on it. But that said, it's only going to be one or 2% of all ETF assets. So overall, in my life, we cover all the asset classes. And sometimes, obviously, when we tweet about stocks or bonds, the crypto people are like,

hey, what's up with this? But we're ETF analysts. We just happen to be really on this story like a dog on a bone for the past several months. Okay. So we've obviously tracked your predictions. At one point, it was 75% to the end of the year. Grayscale won. It went to 90% by January 10th, end of the year semantics, right? 10 days. And even since you gave that prediction, 90% chance, we've now seen

endless examples of the SEC proactively working with these filers, BlackRock meeting, ARC meeting, everybody meeting with the SEC to argue over whether it's going to be in kind or cash, all these things, right? So is there any reason to believe that the SEC would expend all of these resources, spend all this time if they weren't taking this seriously? Absolutely not. I was on Yahoo with a lawyer yesterday who's working with many of the issuers. And that was his point. You're just not going to have the SEC working

during the week between Christmas and New Year's unless SHIT is going down. That's just the way it is. They're not, this is the government, remember? So yeah. And everything we've heard with the issuers who are dealing with them look very good. I mean, basically, I mean, again, I don't have it recorded, right?

But I've heard they told people, you do X, Y, and Z, you're good. We're ready. I mean, that's what they've said. So we're not from 90%. I'm just saying it's an optimistic 90%. We were at 90% when it was hard to be 90%. That's what I'm saying. You were 90% just on the grayscale winning a court case against the SEC without seeing any of this actual move. We were 75 before that.

So we really stuck our neck out there because we had really worked some sources, some back channel information. And again, our in-house lawyer gave us good odds on the grayscale, our in-house legal analyst, rather. That was helpful. And so, yeah, there's no reason to up it the only 10 the 10 percent really i'd say a couple that is a denial again very very large outside shot this would be the ultimate mind f rug pull of all time and it would go down in history as like what um but it's possible i guess the five and the sec would get sued yeah i mean uh i mean at this point our 90 is not only looking better but many uh mainstream media sites have actually just reported on it's really high odds so we're now covered completely if they rug pulled everybody would be shocked not just, if, if they denied it like a month ago, only we would look bad because we were optimistic. Now everybody is, so everybody would look like fools. Now the other 6% is more for a delay. Like, let's just say, I don't know, there's some kind of legal technicality and they just say, Hey, R, can you withdraw, refile, and we'll look to approve

you and everybody on the BlackRock approval date in March. That's maybe a possibility. So my point is if we, if for some reason they delay it, our 90% would just curve up. But again, I don't see any reason for that. Everything we've heard is they're going to, the latest we heard, and here's what I would, here's the dates that we're looking at the strongest dates approval on the 8th that's a monday right so after the weekend and then launched by that thursday that would be the 11th is there a chance that you could see like these 19 b4 approvals but the s1's not cleared and you could see a bigger gap than that three days between when we actually this was some theories we heard being uh trotted around even from one issuer uh two issuers um the guy

from um gatt hogan said it from bitwise on my show so yeah no no it was the other guy though steven mcclure who really was like hey the government's love is it going to be february i don't agree with that at the time he, he made sense. But what happened since then is the S1s all got updated like crazy. In fact, the details in the S1 is next level. And in fact, all the meetings they've had with the SEC where they said, stop trying to sell us on in-kind, do it cash. The S1s immediately reflect that. They refiled. BlackRock's had three or four amendments. And the detail, the level of detail in the s1s is so high what on earth would they need the s1 argument waiting till february would be stronger

if there were no amendments but we've had three or four amendments per issuer at this point so what i think is going to happen is this um the 19b4s are being uh finalized the sec is going to eyeball them wait till their approval match, like they're going to write an approval, match it with the 19 before once they're fine and happy, and they have nothing else they need from your 19 before the 19 befores will be refiled. When we see those refiled, that's almost ipso facto approval from what I'm hearing. Then the formal approval will be written or come out on the eighth or or 9th. That's what we're hearing. And then the launch, again, we've heard nothing that would say it would take weeks.

We heard days. So we think 11th, 12th possible. It waits till after Martin Luther King birthday, which is the next long weekend. But the 11th would be ideal because you get them out, get two days of trading, let everybody have a breather for three days, and then come back in the next week. That I think is the most likely scenario. But again, it's not definite. Having 12 to 14 of these launch at once, what do you think the marketing campaigns in that battle for AUM is going to look like? You talked about earlier already that being first is huge. So if nobody gets that first mover advantage, are we going to see one or two winners? Are we going to see an even spread? I don't think that's

going to be the case among 12. I don't think that's the case when you have a Fidelity and a BlackRock and ARK in the mix. But I mean, you've got to imagine this is going to be the most widespread marketing campaign in history. We even saw a big marketing campaign for the Ethers Futures ETFs, which fell flat. But ahead of the approval on Friday, which the approvals came Monday, we saw ads running everywhere. Yeah. So we've already seen a couple ads. I think we'll see a lot of ads. The only thing is the ads can't include the ticker, which makes it a little tricky. But they can include a link and they can sort of subtly tell you what it is, you know, obviously, bitwise and

hashtags, I think have two ads that were pretty good about saying it's an ETF at least. But I think Google has let go of some rules where you can advertise on Google, I think they're going to hit the internet hard. If I were them, I would I just tweeted this I would I would advertise on Fox News golf tournaments and ARP. And I would, I just tweeted this. I would, I would advertise on Fox news, golf tournaments, and ARP. And I would put in ads that featured like, um, I don't know the equivalent of a Bruce Springsteen, like the king of the boomers type people.

Not like, uh, I don't think you want millennials don't need this. They'll buy. They don't need this. Nobody young. Everybody understands this. Who's young. I think you need to figure out how to approach the boomers and bitwise used the most interesting man on earth he's clearly a boomer and hashtags use an old clip of uh someone

talking about the internet and the boomer was like this makes no sense um great ads for the boomer so um i think that's what we'll see i think there'll be a lot of ad spends the the thing about the volume is when you have these let's say there's 12 horses that are out i don't think that many will make the starting gate by the way but let's just assume like 12 make it out. Um, there's only room for one liquidity King and the liquid King is set for life. It never has to lower its fees. It has immune from the Vanguard effect and the ETF teradome. That's the, that's what everybody's after. That's the Holy grail here. You basically get a nice revenue stream for eternity. Now the rest of them will then compete on fees distribution.

They'll be in a fee war and they'll get theirs, but it'll be a harder road to revenue. That said, you, you could have the most liquid one and then have one that has more assets, believe it or not. So the real key here, the holy grail is volume. And who will be the most voluminous one? I don't know. I mean, you've got to think BlackRock is the favorite. Unless, of course, they allow GBTC to convert on day one. They would bring over $150 million a day in volume.

But how much of that volume would be people staying at 2% fee? They'd have to cut their fee by, I don't know, at least to 70 basis points, I think, to be competitive. So that's a whole other question. But they would bring over volume instantly, and they'd have a clear advantage. So then you look at Fidelity. Then you look at ARK. ARK is probably going to put some of the money from the GBTC sale eventually into ARKB. That would give it a nice boost. Because

when you put your own money into a fund, like on day one or two, let's say BlackRock sells from its private trust and moves money right into its ETF, that's going to show up as volume. So it's going to look like it traded like $500 million that day. And a lot of times the media doesn't pick up on what's BYOA, like volume versus like organic volume. And the key thing is to have a narrative forming around the ETF that you're the winner. So there's going to be jockeying not only in the fees, but also they're going to place assets in volume that are actually fake in a way. They're their own money. Then there could be one that just naturally takes off.

So we will be studying this like it's crazy, right? Yeah. There's just no way to me in my mind, maybe I'm wrong, that Larry Fink, who's one of the most powerful 5, 10 people on the planet, you could argue, is out making a point to talk about crypto in the media if he's going to just launch this without the AOM lined up in advance. To your point, whether that's coming internally, whether he's got a whole lot of calls in to friends who say, hey, just throw $100 million

in this, do me a solid. I just don't see this falling flat like that Ethereum futures ETF that literally nobody wanted. I see a lot of people point, nobody wanted that product. It was just a milestone, like stepping stone to real products. Probably BlackRock, ironically, has the most pressure here or the most natural incentive because most of the other firms in the race are privately held. And so the owners get there, they make plenty of money. BlackRock, I know Larry Fink's fine, but BlackRock is a publicly traded company. So they're constantly having to, what have you done for me lately? They're shareholders. And so in order for BlackRock to keep its valuation, it's trading really well. It's outperformed all the other asset manager

stocks. But to keep that up there, it's got to find new revenue streams. And ESG didn't really work out. They thought this might be a new way to sell active to the masses. It didn't work. So this is really important to them. They want new revenue sources to appease their shareholders who need new. What have you done for me lately? So this is the answer. ESG. It's the anti ESG. Larry,

Bitcoin is like literally blows up ESG completely, which he created. Yeah. And that's sometimes that's the rap on BlackRock is there, you know, more opportunistic they'll do whatever will make them money. And nothing that's bad. I mean, look, it's a capitalist society. I don't judge anything, but you could argue that.

And that's what the small guys are going to do. Bitwise has already put ETFs by crypto specialists. This is a subtle way of saying, listen, we really believe in this stuff. You're going to find ads and other ETFs from these Johnny companies who are really opportunities. They don't care about crypto. They just want to make a buck. So there's going to definitely be a barbelling. to find ads and other ETFs from these Johnny companies who are really wall street opportunists. They don't care about crypto. They just want to make a buck. So there's going to definitely be a barbelling, I think, between the crypto people saying we're crypto people, buy our ETFs versus the, look, we're the adults in the room. You can trust us. Who cares if we're crypto people?

Yeah. So listen, we need to tell you, you mentioned the GBDC sale, and I want to talk about this a bit because you also hinted at the fact that everybody might not get approved at once. GBDC might have a challenge converting. I said this actually on Monday to Dave Weisberger and James Lavish, and they pushed back very hard saying that this is all great for Grayscale, but ARK liquidated all of their GBDC. To some degree, that's a trade, right? Because the discount is closed. They've made a ton of money on it. To some degree, that's a trade, right? Because the discount is closed. They've made a ton of money on it. They're rebalancing. But they moved it as, this is your tweet, right? They moved a lot of that into BITO, which nobody really wants to own

the futures ETF right now. So it seems like this has to be a placeholder for them to put that AUM directly into their spot ETF when it gets approved. I was just going to say, but clearly, Cathie Wood is hinting at the fact, you said it right here. She said it could be a challenge to convert. Wait, we have it here. There are tax and regulatory uncertainties with GBTC. We don't know who will be approved. She keeps nodding to the fact, and maybe that's because they're a competitor, but that GBTC might not make it quickly here. Might not be first out of the gate with them. Yeah. There's a couple of things going on in what she's saying.

And that's the first time she's hinted at GBTC possibly having a holdup. But to your point, she made a killing not only in the rise of Bitcoin, but she doubled her money in terms of GBTC discount narrowing. Now it's 5%. And with the uncertainty coming up, it's a great trade, in my opinion. I would do the same thing. Also, you want to get that money prepared because if ARKB launches in 14 days or whatever, you want to stuff ARKB full of volume and assets to give it the best shot because that's

going to make it appear as though a party is happening in your fund. It's a great marketing tool in terms of you have that. Not everybody has those assets lying around. So it's a great marketing tool in terms of you have that, not everybody has those assets lying around. So it's a win-win for her. I think in the case of Biddo, if you've been following ARK over the years, like I have, she will use big liquid stocks sometimes as she legs into a smaller like biotech name. So she'll buy like, I don't know, Microsoft or something. Let me use AI stock, like a small AI stock. She'll buy Microsoft and then use that because it's very liquid and then slowly leg into the trade because you don't want to overwhelm a small stock in volume because you'll get crushed in impact costs.

So my guess is she's using Biddo as a liquidity transition tool. It's very liquid. It, I mean, it trades almost like, I don't know, 800 million a day or 500 million a day. It's very liquid. It I mean, it trades almost like a, I don't know, 800 million a day or 500 million a day. That's plenty. And then she'll, I think she'll just hold that like she's holding Microsoft and then slowly go into ARK A or ARK B, which is the futures and the spot down the road. That's my guess. She didn't address that specifically, but I will say for people looking at her holdings, if you look at the actual percentage exposed to Bitcoin, through Coinbase and GBTC and now Biddo, it's always been around 15%. Like it's always hung there. So the media sometimes will look at

the actual share sold and write a whole story. But I'm like, you have to look at the weightings. ARK is always about the weightings. And when the weightings change, that's how you know their opinion change. But the weightings have never changed. They've always kept beta to BTC at about the same level. She's literally had to sell. We've talked about it here a million times, but she can't let Bitcoin adjacent stocks become 75% of her portfolio. She just did. This is how professional funds manage their AUM, but that has always been her strategy. She never sways from her percentages and her rebalancing. Correct.

Yeah. She sells the winners and then buys the losers. If the opposite happened, let's say GBTC went down over the last six months, she'd be buying more. But it wouldn't be she's more bullish on Bitcoin. She's trying to keep the 10% waiting or whatever. I think it's a good lesson

for all the retail investors out there as well. Why would GBTC have any trouble converting versus the others? It is the only trust where they already have the Bitcoin sitting there. We just saw Grayscale chair Silbert, who is kind of under fire with DCG in general and Genesis bankruptcy, but he resigned. A lot of people saying he's stepping out of the way. Maybe this was a condition for Grayscale to be able to get approved because Barry has controversy around him. But why would this be more challenging? Does this have anything to do with the in-kind versus cash create any of

that? Well, I read, this is just my read on it. Again, I don't have, I don't know what the conversations that went on between the SEC and Grayscale,

but to me, this seems voluntary from Grayscale. I feel like this is a, almost like a sacrifice or an offering to be like, Hey, we're, we're being good boys you know we're doing the right thing we're here we're serious we're trying to sort of like go legit

if you want to use like mafia terminology um we're also going to put in cash creations we're really trying to please you because the two things that are working against them and why i think they will not make it to the starting gate. I think they'll convert eventually. I just don't think they'll go on day one. I think the SEC, after Biddle launched, Biddle still has 95% of all the volume in Bitcoin futures ETFs. The SEC does not want to play kingmaker. It wants to have a fair race. If you allow GBTC to convert on day one, they would be the clear favorite by far. They'd probably win it and they would be the king. Because they have the AUM already.

I mean, they're holding 5% or something. They're bringing it down to a knife fight. Yeah. I mean, and the SEC knows that, and I think that's why they're going to hold them back. In the name of that now, whether, in the back of their mind, and we'll never know this unless we can drill into Gensler's brain, is whether that is really just their excuse

to get back at them for suing them because you know the sc doesn't want to prove it you've ever seen gonzalez interviews he is cagey he's like he speaks in code but he's like yeah sometimes the court makes us do things that we don't want to do so and then he puts out these trees cryptos messed up and a lot of the subtext is look we, we want no part of this. The courts, we think they're wrong. They're making us do it. I hope you're happy. We think this sucks. And I think the cash creation is also a little way to sort of stick it to the whole process because the whole industry and every investor would benefit from in-kind and the crypto world and they won't do it. And at least they're getting cash though. And my take is just let the genie come out of the bottle.

Once the genie's out of the bottle, good things will happen. Just get what you can now. I think it kind of will happen down the road. But you know from if you read the tea leaves and there's an art to this, you can tell Gensler's not thrilled with this. And he probably isn't thrilled with Grayscale. Now, whether the excuse I'm saying, the fair fair competition is just a way to get revenge. I don't know or maybe he is such a good person. He's able to separate not caring or have any like pettiness. And he really

feels this way. Or I'm totally wrong. And they'll convert on day one James, my colleague who you know, well, he thinks they will we bet sushi on it. So does nature AC. So So I'm actually in the minority amongst my obsessed ETF analyst colleagues on this. It's going to be fun to see what happens, certainly. I think we have to, even though I know that's not your forte or anyone's, to make wild price predictions or what's going to happen with price. But we're seeing this increasing sentiment. I think for many months, it was like, we get an approval, Bitcoin goes up like $30,000 in a week or something, right?

It's just some insane, as we call it, a god candle. But now we're starting to see a lot of, I think, dampened expectation about what actually happens on the approval. Cathie Wood, again, sees short-term effect of spot Bitcoin ETF as sell on news. There's a lot of articles here. Smart money, by the way, is record long on the CME, which usually means price is going down when you see these combined logs. If you guys look at funding, and I think the market's dropping right now, across the board, everything is maxed out. I mean, shorts are just getting paid a tremendous amount of money

just to exist. Another analyst here, my friend, my friend, Ryan, I mean, every scenario has here basically sees us dropping after the approval. And even if you look at GLD, it went up immediately, but then had a three or four month or even longer, if I remember, sustained downtrend before that parabolic up move. Yeah, I get all these takes. I think it's also the safe take because if anybody who's a casual tourist here reads this they're like oh maybe maybe i should be careful or if i buy i won't be surprised if it goes down i like that because i would it would be bad for to be too oversold i think in 2021 when biddo launched nobody was saying this everybody was like this rocks this is great it was a mania and i don't feel that.

This is a much more been there, done that, once bitten, twice shy kind of feeling with this rally. That's probably a good sign for the actual rally if everyone kind of hates it. Remember, in stocks, there was this thing called the most hated bull market ever. And it actually helped because it really tampered everybody's like mania aspect because everybody's like i don't know they just had an attitude like things could go bad and that defensive mindset actually helped the bull market rally i don't know if the same will happen here but i do like that these reports are coming out and everybody's like giving caution because the one thing i don't want to see is that someone comes in at the top who's like a tourist, and then it immediately goes down. I hate

that. And they end up holding the bag, and then they leave after three months, and then it goes back up again. And they literally just had the worst trade of their life. So I would caution that if Biddo went down after, that said, it feels different. Biddo felt like an all-up mania. This feels like a somewhat hated rally. Yeah, I would say that CME and CBOE futures launched whatever it was, December 17th. That was the dead top of Bitcoin for that last cycle. And then when Biddle launched, we were in full bull mania. And that was kind of the top of that cycle. And I think a lot of people learn that lesson and think this could be the case. But I don't think that just because it happened with those, they're very different products. It's a

very different situation. And we're not in bull mania. I still don't have people asking me if they need to buy Bitcoin like they were at those points, right? Your barber and your Uber driver. Yeah. There's one thing we need to just address real quick. When these launch and people follow us on Twitter and we're putting out volume, we're going to do our best to provide perspective, but it's possible the volume numbers are much

lower than Biddo. And it was a record launch for anything, right? A billion fastest to a billion. Right. Yeah. So my guess is these will be one of the best, especially as a group, they'll be one of the most successful launches ever, especially in the past 12 months. But relative to the 10-year buildup, it could feel underwhelming. And that could actually spark a sell-off, I feel like, depending on how this is phrased by people, because all people are going to have their takes on it. And I think, again, remember, what we're thinking here is that the retail minnows are not nearly as hungry as they

were. What's in the lake right now is bigger advisor fish, but they don't bite on day one. They're going to wait to see who's the liquid, what's the cost. So the bigger fish are definitely what the bait is going after. I go fishing a lot. If you want minnows, you put a little cornmeal on it, you throw it in the lake and you get a bite quickly. If you want a bigger fish, you put an actual medium-sized fish on the hook and throw it in, but it takes longer to get that fish to bite and you have to go deeper. I would look at this the same way. This is going after much more medium-sized fish. I do not see a bunch of retail mania biting on day one like they did with Bitto. That could come off as underwhelming. And I just

want to say that's sort of what we feel is going to happen. I do want to say consensus still remains that regardless of what happens in the short term on the launch, that this is very bullish for the asset class long term. Long term, of course. Yeah, no, like I said, you're going for bigger, medium sized fish. And you're also building a bridge from one world to another. And this bridge is trusted and reliable and the more you know it's gonna traffic will happen yeah awesome man well i really appreciate you taking the time always i want to like book you in advance for like every day of january if that's possible just get you get you lined up the 8th the 9th the 10th maybe the 14th can we just get it lined up the 8th, the 9th, the 10th, maybe the 14th. Can we just get it all on the books and you can show up or not?

We'll figure it out. Yeah, I'm sure we'll... You're going to be a very, very busy man those days on all these shows. I better take it easy on New Year's Eve and get rest. Yeah, perfect. Thank you. Eric, you guys have really done an incredible job keeping us all abreast. It's funny.

People don't realize that you're not just a crypto guy, right? There's a very small part of what you do, but we do appreciate that you've kind of taken us under your wing and explained this to us the entire way because we definitely needed the handholding and the bad takes are endless. No, it's great. This is a massive educational opportunity, not just for crypto people, but just anybody, investors. We're learning what creation redemption is, how the legal process to get an ETF filed. It's wonderful, I think. The whole thing's great. Yeah, I feel like I'm an ETF mini expert just as a result of listening to you guys. So I appreciate it. Thanks, Eric. Have a great day. Yeah, you too. Bye. Guys, you've got to, by the way, be following Eric on X. I'm assuming it's down in the description

the name, but you have to follow. This is the way you're going to keep up. This is how I keep up. This is why we have these guys on the show. By the way, you know, I see we got a lot of new people here today. If you are new to the channel, if you're one of those seven and maybe a half people, subscribe. Because we're here every single day. I never pitch you guys to subscribe. I guess at the beginning I say like and subscribe.

Do I do that? Yeah, I guess I do. But I'm pleading for you now. Subscribe because we want to have you guys here for future videos. And this channel is only getting better. You can see that the quality is extremely high. We get the best guests on here. I feel like I'll drop the best guests. The greatest people on both sides. Good people. And speaking of good people on both sides, good people. And speaking of good people on both sides, the first side, we had our ETF expert, Eric. And on the other side, we've got Dan from the

chart guys every single Thursday. So you guys are pretty comfortable here. Looks like we're actually having a little bit of a sell-off right now. I was kind of trying to click through the charts while he was talking. I see Solana's under a hundred bucks, Bitcoin, a little dip. I guess it's kind of right back, 42, 750, but a little downside here. I haven't been watching stocks at all. Are they dipping as well? A little bit, not much.

The story today is the crypto miners hit a climax top. Yesterday was a huge day, MARA up 15%, HUT was up 20% or whatever. And pre-market, they sold off real hard. So they've hit their temporary top and just cooling off. You know, that was inevitable because they've been on a wild rally. But what I'm looking at for Bitcoin in the short term is, I guess I'll share my screen so we can. Please do.

So it's on this bounce. So two days ago, we had that little drop down it was a pretty sizable dump and you know some of the extra longs got liquidated there i should say leveraged lungs and we found a bottom with this little hourly inverse head and shoulders so we had this this kind of pattern there put in the bottom to get the bounce going and now that same thing has to happen on the four hour and so it it's again, very similar, but we've got to see this four hour higher low set pretty soon here. And bulls need to make their way back up if we're going to see a full on recovery from that drop. Otherwise, you know, and we can very easily chop within this range. We've got the clear

basis support at 40,000. We got clear resistance, 44,000, 45,000. We could trade within this range into the new year pretty easily. And what altcoin bulls want to see is if we are going to trade range bound in Bitcoin, they want to see the dominance keep dropping so that altcoins keep getting their turn. But a couple of things that have happened recently, just the last couple of days that have us a little bit cautious is Litecoin got a pump up and really the laggards of the laggards, all these names that have not participated. So Link got a nice move up and Litecoin and Binance and all these names. So we can break either way out of this range. Again, just the weekly timeframe, if you don't consolidate on the weekly and you have a higher

low every single week for two months, two and a half months, you just know it's inevitable. And I've been saying that for a month at this point, but it just won't surprise us when it happens. I mean, do you have any thoughts on the conversation I was having with him about what might happen when we see this ETF approved? It seems like now the waters are very muddied as to what people are expecting. We have the, it's going to go up 20 grand in a day, people, to the, here comes the 30% correction people. Yeah. I've been of the mindset, especially if, again, if weekly consolidation has not happened, I expect the headline quick spike up and then a top. I do think it would lead to weekly consolidation. And then we would look for

a weekly higher low because there's tons of space for it. And again, that's inevitable consolidation that you have in any kind of uptrend. But then I have, over the weekend, I was seeing on my timeline, like, man, everybody is so euphoric for, we're going to make so much money in 2024. And so I posted that and say, anytime I see this, this makes me cautious in my 13 years of trading. This is how I avoid bag holding and euphoria markets. I sell into this kind of strength. And then I post that and then it gets retweeted and liked and people are agreeing with me. And now I'm like, well, wait a minute. I want everyone to tell me I'm an idiot. Tell me how I'm wrong and that I'm missing out on the new paradigm. Tell me to have fun staying poor, please. That would magnify my belief that that would be the case. And so the fact that I'm missing out on the new paradigm. Tell me to have fun staying poor, please. That would magnify my belief that that would be the case. And so the fact that I had so many

people agreeing with me had me say, well, wait a minute, maybe we can keep this going. So yeah, for me, it's always been cautious the short term in the ETF headline reaction, because I had a friend who's not crypto friend messaged me a month ago about buying for the ETF. So people retail, he knows markets, he does stocks, but retail is front running this ETF. Some retail, it's just a question of, I just can't imagine that big money has not been front running this knowing that it's a sell the news event in the short term. Yeah, I think as we said before, long term, it's going to be extremely bullish, but it's hard to know what's going to happen in the short term. But I'm starting to agree with you. I think you get

the big pump and then we just chill for months, right? Because we still also have the four year cycle, the halving coming in April. We always have a boring six to nine months after that with some correction. And then the real bull market starts in September, October after the halving. I still don't see why that wouldn't happen personally. Yeah. I mean, this long-term chart, the four-month, I mean, if we don't get the all-time high and we pull back and again, just looking looking for what we did 2017, we just equilibrium tightening range. It was over a shorter period of time, but it was also a much smaller range. And again, I'm just very open to that happening again. And us traders, if that did happen, it would be a good

thing because it would give us nice clarity and there'd be more time for buying consolidation. And then you get the breakout and the euphoria that follows. So just again, as I always say to everybody, have a game plan for both directions. Have a game plan for Bitcoin all time high in the next three, four months, and have a game plan for a long drawn out tightening range for the next 12 to 18 months. Yeah. So what else are you looking at right now then in general? I mean, the miners, like you said, have gone crazy. I luckily, uh, was listening to Mike Alfred, not just a couple of weeks ago. And I bought a bunch and, uh, doubled or went up two and a half times in just a matter of weeks, but it does feel like that run could be ending here for a little while. Yeah. It's a very short term though. I'm still very bullish on them long-term. I'm not selling, by the way. These were like, I was accumulating a low position and I'm going to ride the cycle.

Yeah. At this point, if we're talking short-term, I mean, again, MARA daily higher low every single day for the last 12 days at the moment. I'm going to be watching for whether the current bounce, because again, pre-market we dumped, but I'm looking for an hourly lower high. If we confirm an hourly downtrend, that tells us, yeah, daily consolidation is underway. And then from there, we look for the back burner, first hourly oversold conditions to look for a daily higher low. And that's going to be a potential solid entry point, which was the case for Coin. And you can see even now Coin, the lower open, we're covering a little bit, but Coin, first hourly oversold conditions happened back at 118. And we very quickly saw continuation in a large follow through move. So I'm looking for hourly oversold in these names to be looking

for swing trade entries at this point. But again, bulls aren't complaining with the buying at the moment. And they're hoping that it aligns with Bitcoin shaping up that four hour higher low. But Bitcoin definitely still has work to do on that front. I mean, Coinbase at $184, man, what a run. Yeah, that monthly timeframe. One of the lessons for me is all these growth names just were complete bears in 2022. And then they just based out on the monthly long-term timeframe for so long. And just this inverse head and shoulders, where's your resistance after these tops? It was 116 and 114. So pretty much a double top. If you clear that, there is just nothing here. And the bulls have taken full advantage of that lack of resistance. So are you watching anything else in the crypto market? Are you interested in Ethereum here?

I mean, I've been obviously saying that Ethereum's beat down and trailing and that's an opportunity, but not everyone agrees, but it is starting to bounce here against Bitcoin, obviously, quite nicely. And I think it just put in actually the highest price since like May 22 or something. Let me check that. But yeah, I think, yeah, going back, you have to go back to May 22 to see it hit 24.45 or something. Let me check that. But yeah, I think, yeah, going back, you have to go back to May 22 to see it hit 2445 or something today. Yeah, we've had this ETH BTC chart. I drew this line and I just said, it's not time for ETH if this is resistance. And then obviously the last two days that has shifted significantly. So ETH, you know, getting its turn, it's certainly overdue

and it's just rotation. This is what bulls want to see in a healthy market. You know, getting its turn, it's certainly overdue. And it's just rotation. This is what bulls want to see in a healthy market. You know, I watch it in the broader market where we rotate from the Magnificent Seven to IWM and, you know, the Russell 2000, the laggards, and then the financial sector gets a turn. So it's one of the characteristics of a strong bull market when you do get that kind of rotation going on. So that's always a good sign. But yeah, ETH is worth watching right now. And again, just there's still plays out there. The dump two days ago, we had OP and SOL. They hit hourly oversold for the first time and had some solid bounces. So bulls are still buying dips at this point.

You just got to be protective. If you're playing short-term bounces, sell your partial positions into some follow-through and just set your stops knowing that we will see weekly consolidation. It's just a question of when and if you don't want to be holding into weekly consolidation, you've got to protect your positions. Yeah, I mean, my theory was that some of that Solana money will rotate into Ethereum here just as I hear the narratives. And this is the Solana chart. I mean, this weekly candle still has three days, but that's pretty ugly. I mean, I would love, I'm bidding, I'll just tell you guys, I'm bidding Solana into like the 70s here. High 70s. That was a huge for me weekly level. Obviously, that's pretty ugly. I mean, I would love, I'm bidding. I'll just tell you guys, I'm bidding Solana into like the seventies here. High seventies. That was a huge for me, weekly level. Obviously that's where resistance was here. So that's what I'm looking at. I don't

know that it'll get there, but that's the next area I'd be interested in buying if it is dipping. Yeah. I mean, you're on point. This chart I have up is the daily chart for soul divided by ETH, which shows us, soul has been outperforming ETH for three months, and that has drastically shifted the last three days. Yeah. Good. I'm glad that that aligns for you. Eric was even talking about the most hated rallies and the most hated bull markets. It feels like ETH has just been the most hated asset. I've been writing about it constantly for the past few months. It just seems irrational. So what else? I see you got MSOS up there. Is that? Yeah, just another mentioned cannabis. So again, if you're

not following the sector at all, it's just a headline play. If you're not following it, just set an alert where if the DEA reschedules cannabis, which is there's rumors around, I think they would hold it till closer to the election, but it's just an E, it's free money. If that happens, if you can market by MSOS as soon as possible, it's the kind of thing that's gonna it's gonna go up for, you know, weeks. And so it's just an easy play where it's a headline play. You know, I'm a technical trader, but that's a very clear fundamental catalyst. So I'm encouraging everybody, you know, if you don't want to watch this sector, it's boring most of the time, I understand, but just have a game plan, write down a game plan. If this headline comes out and

I can act quickly on that headline, I will do X, Y, and Z. Because that's a headline that lasts forever. That's not one of those sell the news events. That's a fundamental change in the entire way that that market will trade indefinitely. And it's so thinly traded that so much money will pour in on that headline. Again, this was the HHS recommending that the DEA reschedule. And so 100% in two weeks or whatever. And so if it actually happens, that would be the most aggressive that I go as a trader since 2017 crypto, 2018 Canadian cannabis run. Since then, I've dialed it back and been more conservative. But if that headline hits, I'm going to go right back into my most aggressive trading style. Makes perfect sense. Anything else you're looking at before I let you go? That's it for now. Metals,

they had their blow off top. They're recovering a bit. It's a nice two-week recovery. Still, we could easily be range bound here for a couple of weeks, but still keeping my eye just because of that proximity to all-time highs for gold. Yeah, I agree. We love that blue sky breakout if we ever get it. Well, everybody, follow Chart Guys on X, his YouTube channel, everywhere else, man. Thank you as always for joining. I love that. We like just knock it out like 15 minutes, everything there is to know everything you need to know. Then we come back a week later and see how we did usually pretty well. All right, Scott, thanks for having me. They said, all right, everybody, once again, please, uh, like, and subscribe and subscribe. See when I get my producer back, I get little notes and say,

dude, ask people to subscribe to the channel, man. What is wrong with you? I'm bad at it. And while we're doing that, subscribe to my free newsletter, The Wolf Den. It's right down below. You guys should know about this by now. If you're not reading this, but you're watching my things, I find it kind of weird, honestly. I'm going to bring it up here. I think, I don't even know how to use the internet, guys. I'm trying to bring it up. I can't I don't even know how to use the internet, guys. I'm trying to bring it up. I can't even do it. That's how bad I am at internetting. I think that should be it though. Let's see. I can see. Guys, I'm on newsletter today. I wrote my 870 second newsletter. Five days a week, I wake up first thing in the morning, four or five o'clock,

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birthday, Drew. I hope a lot of people bought Bitcoin hoodies from you when we shilled the shit out of your store here last two weeks ago. Hope that worked. All right, guys, that's all I got for you. I will see you tomorrow. Peace.