The Wolf Of All Streets - The BITCOIN ETF Could Be Rejected For This Reason, And NOBODY Is Talking About It!

Episode Date: November 30, 2023

Matt Hougan from Bitwise explains why an ETF approval in January is no sure thing. There's a reason it could easily get rejected, and nobody seems to know! https://twitter.com/Matt_Hougan Sponsored By TAP! ►►TAP A super-powered money app - an all-in-one investment, money, and trading platform. Coming to the U.S. soon, with tons of bonuses. 👉https://referral.withtap.com/scottmelker  ►►TRADING ALPHA READY TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS? THE BEST TRADERS IN CRYPTO ARE RELYING ON THESE INDICATORS TO MAKE TRADES. USE CODE ‘2MONTHSOFF’ WHEN VISITING MY LINK.  👉 https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker  ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEK DAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/   ►► OKX Sign up for an OKX Trading Account then deposit & trade to unlock mystery box rewards of up to $10,000!  👉 https://www.okx.com/join/SCOTTMELKER ►►NGRAVE This is the coldest hardware wallet in the world and the only one that I personally use. 👉https://www.ngrave.io/?sca_ref=453131... ►►THE DAILY CLOSE BRAND NEW NEWSLETTER! INSTITUTIONAL GRADE INDICATORS AND DATA DELIVERED DIRECTLY TO YOUR INBOX, EVERY DAY AT THE DAILY CLOSE. TRADE LIKE THE BIG BOYS. 👉 https://www.thedailyclose.io/   ►►NORD VPN  GET EXCLUSIVE NORDVPN DEAL - 40% DISCOUNT! IT’S RISK-FREE WITH NORD’S 30-DAY MONEY-BACK GUARANTEE. PROTECT YOUR PRIVACY! 👉 https://nordvpn.com/WolfOfAllStreets   Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://twitter.com/scottmelker  Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.io   Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe   Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c   #Bitcoin #Crypto #Trading The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

Consensus seems to be that the Bitcoin ETF will be approved by January 10th, no matter what, 90% chance, but there's actually a technicality that could see it either rejected or certainly delayed past that date. Now, I'm not saying that this doesn't mean we're making progress, that the Bitcoin spot ETF won't get approved, but it seems like a lot of people are missing this thing and taking it for granted, and it's not as simple as a yes or no answer. Now, this is something that came up on Spaces with Matt Hogan for Bitwise. So of course, that means we brought him on as the guest to talk about it and everything else ETF. And of course, Dan from Chart Guys on the back to tell us what's going on with the market.

You guys don't want to miss this one. Let's go. What is up, everybody? I'm Scott Melker, also known as the Wolf of Wall Street. Before we get started, please subscribe to the channel and gently caress the like button on your keyboard. There's no like button on the keyboard. That's dumb. You have to actually hit a button on your mouse to tap the light button that's on your screen. So another technicality that perhaps I missed. I can see you guys over here in the comments. Harry says, ha ha. Oh, I missed. Hit the wrong one. Ha ha one haha finally a YouTube friendly thumbnail yeah we wanted to do it to try it and so I sent like I did one of these which I've never done on the YouTube thumbnail made my face bigger um I still can't do this I just can't bring myself there

and then someone was like why so negative bro like I it's up here somewhere in the comments like what the fuck is this teaser why are you you posting negative shit? It's not negative. Just important that you guys understand what's happening with this process, because all we do is cover the inevitability of the ETF. And there actually might be some nuance when you talk to an expert about it. So I'm just going to go ahead. And honestly, tomorrow, I'm just going to scream. I'm going to put nothing in the background except for rocket ships flying through my head and humongous red arrows pointing down. And then I'm going to tell you that Bitcoin is going to zero. And you know what?

We're going to get five times as many viewers. It's going to be very frustrating. It's inevitable what happens. Matt, I was going to put your face on there really big, actually, and leave me out of it. I was going to just send you a – see, you can do it. By the way, you just did that and now i can have them uh screenshot that for the next time that you're on i i literally i went on a rant recently on twitter about how hard it is to hack the youtube algorithm and how like i don't want

to play the game but every once in a while you have to just do you know i was like we're gonna try it that's the way it works i know yeah like i love my thumbnails they're like they're really creative and artistic then you realize when someone sees it on their screen and they're choosing between like 10 things, they're not going to click on the one that they have to like zoom in on to, to figure out all the nuance. There's a reason that this stuff works. Anyways, though we have this title, right? The Bitcoin AVF could get rejected. I said to you, maybe I should have said delayed in hindsight and nobody's talking about it. But let's talk about what that is, because this isn't like a fear mongering title. There's real nuance to the way

that these things get approved, or even more appropriately, they get launched once they are approved. Correct? Yeah, that's absolutely right. I mean, if you had told me two years ago that people would care this much about the arcana of ETF approvals. It kind of blows my mind coming from an ETF background. But like you said, everyone has focused in on this January 10th date. And the important thing to know for the audience to know is that's just part of the puzzle. Launching an ETF, at least these kind of 1933 Act commodity ETFs, involves like a nuclear key setting. You need two things to be approved in order to get it launched. The January 10th thing is focused on something called a 19B4, which is the approval to list an ETF on the New York Stock Exchange. And that's what we've been

focused on for the last 10 years, because that is the reef on which all ETF applications have sort of sunk to this point. That's the reef around market manipulation. That's what the grayscale lawsuit was. And so everyone's excited because that runs on a fixed calendar schedule. The SEC has 240 days from the day that filing is entered into the system to say yes or no. Everyone says January 10th because that's when the ARC filing comes up and people assume the SEC will want to decide all the filings at once. And so what's true is that by January 10th, the SEC will have to say yes or no on the 19b4 for the ARC filing and therefore likely for most of the ETF applications. But that doesn't mean that the ETF launches. The SEC also has to approve or to use their words because they have words for everything, go effective or make effective the S-1 or S-3, which is the prospectus. And that's actually reviewed by an entirely

different division of the SEC. It doesn't follow that 240-day calendar rule, and there's no requirement that it lines up. They could approve the S-1 after the 19B-4 by a series of days, weeks, etc. Now, usually, they line up, but I think people are over-focused, over-emphasized on this January 10th date. I do think it's not a rejection. I think the S1 will eventually clear, at least that's my hope. But people should know, it could be January 11th. We could be on track for a Bitcoin ETF, but it could not have launched yet. And that's just part of this process. It's more complex than the media makes it out to be. Do we have any precedent for 19b4 to be approved, but then an S1 being massively delayed? Not massively delayed that I'm aware of. No. But we do know that Gary is going to do what Gary is

going to do when it comes to Bitcoin spot ETFs. That's exactly right. I was going to be more generous because I sit in the seat of Bitwise, but we never had a Bitcoin ETF before. And the S1 involves disclosures and how custody works and lots of other things, which is complex. So that could take a while. So I do think this is a real possibility, not a guarantee, of course. But I think people who, you know, on January 11th, if we don't have a Bitcoin ETF, we'll lose their mind are probably wrong. And that story is probably going to bubble into the market in the coming weeks. What's really interesting, though, is then you could theoretically see the approval, but then you don't get the listing is basically what you're saying, correct? So it doesn't list.

Is there a way that you can actually get an approval and then it just doesn't list like an S1 for some reason does not get approved, gets rejected? Anything is possible, Scott, but it's a little bit hard to imagine that the 19B4 is more like a hurdle that you may or may not clear. The S1 is more like a dialogue to get to a place where you know where you're going. So it's usually a question of how long that dialogue takes. But of course, again, this is Bitcoin. It's blown my mind multiple times. You could see anything. But usually it's just a work through process that just takes a fixed period of time. But you're seeing multiple updates of S1s. You're seeing these discussions of in-kind versus cash creates. You can see the different issuers working through these issues with the SEC from the public filings. And that

means there's work to do, right? That means there's work to do. All right. So let's talk about some of those more specifically and what the changes have been. I've got a few articles here. SEC asked public for feedback on proposed spot Bitcoin ETFs from Franklin Templeton. Hashtags. This came out two days ago. So this is one of the two of the major filers, I guess, technically. Right. A lot of people saw this as a rejection or was being pitched as a delay or rejection. But actually, the way that this is scanned, it sounds like this is positive. They're going on to the next phase with this one specifically. Is that accurate? That's right. Yeah. I mentioned before they have 240 days to review, but there are these

interim check-ins at 45, 90, and 120 days or anywhere ahead of that where they can move them to the next phase. This was moving them to the next phase where they open it for public comments. And then there's 21 days for the public to comment and 14 days for them to respond. I think people got, yeah, they initially got it wrong and thought it was a disapproval because it includes that word in the legal headline. But legal words are not always exactly what they appear to be, just moving it along. People eventually became excited because they thought this means the SEC is trying to get the public comment period in the past before that January 10th date. That's a little bit of, you know, conjecture. Yeah, that's conjecture.

I like because we're in our echo chamber. People want to say, oh, this is like a way for them to be able to approve all of them on January 11th, which they wouldn't be able to do unless we got past this comment period. But that's completely just speculation. I think it's speculation. Yeah, I actually don't know. I was the CEO of ETF.com, so I come from an ETF background. And I actually don't know if you need to get through the comment period before these launch. But I think it is a good story. We need more stories and headlines and clicks. But mostly, I think you should see it as this process is still continuing. We're still on this track. You know, everything's sort of moving on schedule or ahead of schedule. Perfect. And the next one, obviously, we've been talking about ad nauseum grayscale gears up for spot Bitcoin ETF,

updating trust agreement for sake of operational efficiencies. This is the first update that they've actually made to the trust agreement for GBTC since 2018. Obviously, this again is getting in line. It seems like Grayscale also now having productive conversations with the SEC. And I think we all know that it's a good thing that conversations are happening because they didn't in the past, right? So you have to at least assume, or maybe this is another pundit echo chamber narrative, but you have to assume that if the SEC is utilizing time and resources and staff to actually talk through these things with these companies, that it is at least a bit different or encouraging.

That's exactly right. We have A and B tests here, right? Because as an example, Bitwise filed its S1, I think in 2019, and there were no updates to it until this year. And you're seeing that across multiple issuers. And so people updating their S1s or in the case of Grayscale S3s means that they're having dialogue and pushing things forward. So yes, I would see this as another sort of checkmark on the road to an ETF. You don't see people file and then the prospectuses go effective with no changes in between. That's not how the process works.

You sort of see those prospectuses updated. You see them filled in with greater detail. You see the kind of things that Grayscale did in their S3. Those are all sort of necessary landmarks on the pathway to a potential launch. Yeah, I found this interesting as well. I was digging up things right before our conversation. This is the memorandum for the meeting with Invesco. So that was on October 26th that there was a meeting. But the one that maybe people aren't talking about enough is this BlackRock meeting because it happened on November 28th. And that was a one-page document for Invesco. But if you dig into this BlackRock one, this is a very, very detailed meeting, as you said, kind of about the way that the redemptions, I guess, will happen in kind

versus cash model, et cetera. I mean, they're not just doing it. This isn't a one-page document. This is a very, very specific on exactly how the redemption would happen in kind versus cash redemption, et cetera. And this is BlackRock. So neither, in my opinion, the SEC or BlackRock are wasting their time doing this unless they think that this is coming. That's exactly right. I mean, think about the amount of work that represents for a firm like BlackRock. And so that is both an indication of their level of confidence that this is worth investing in, and also an indication of how far down the chain we've gone in terms of what we're worried about. We were worried about market manipulation and the

University of Texas tether paper and other things in 2019, fake volume. Now we're talking about the nuances of income versus cash creation and efficiencies and tax efficiencies and risk to broker-dealers. That's a much better conversation to have. It's still complex, but it's a much better conversation to have than getting stuck before you even get on first base. Can you actually, I think it'd be interesting here, we talked about it a bit on spaces again, but can you talk more about what this in-kind versus cash redemption actually means? Dave Weisberger, you were there actually, but on YouTube on Monday, he went on a rant about why it makes a huge difference actually for efficiency. But some people don't seem to think

it's that big of a difference. But it seems to be where we're having a sticking point right now on the SEC deciding how they're going to move forward on these and which they would approve. Yeah, for sure. I mean, let's say first and foremost, that the most important thing is whether we get a spot Bitcoin ETF or not. I would take a cash create and redeem spot Bitcoin ETF over no ETF every day of the week. And I would take it even if I, you know, if it meant I could get it a month like this. The way ETFs work is you have these group of institutional investors who help facilitate the creation of new ETFs, so new ETF shares. And they either do it by doing it in kind, which would mean these institutional investors buy Bitcoin and give it to the trust. And then when they redeem shares, the trust gives them Bitcoin, or they do it with cash, which the institutional investors would send cash to the trust. And then when they redeem shares, the trust gives them Bitcoin, or they do it with cash, which the institutional investors would send cash to the trust, and the trust would

buy the Bitcoin. And then when they redeem, the trust would sell the Bitcoin and hand out cash. The reason InPind is better, there are actually two reasons. One, it lowers the trading fees for the ETF itself. If the ETF is going out and buying and selling Bitcoin, trading fees for the ETF itself. If the ETF is going out and buying and selling Bitcoin and you own the ETF, then you're paying the fee, the spread that that ETF is incurring to buy and sell Bitcoin. And that's an inefficient headwind. The other reason is tax. If the ETF owns Bitcoin that's appreciated and it has to sell that Bitcoin to meet redemptions, it might realize capital gains. And then whether you sold or not your ETF shares, you may be liable for some of those capital gains. The one way to think of it, if you've been in the market for 30 years, the big difference between mutual funds and ETFs.

One big difference is that ETFs trade all day and mutual funds only once a day. But the other big difference is that mutual funds are almost all cash creations. And that's why they're tax inefficient and they have internal inefficiencies. ETFs are mostly in-kind creations. So you should think of in-kind as slightly more efficient and more tax efficient. But again, 10 times out of 10, we just want an ETF. The ETF is the 95-yard line. And then the last five yards is cash create or in-kind.

In-kind would be quote-unquote better. But if cash create is all we can do, we should be really, really happy about it. And neither of them will make a difference on how much Bitcoin needs to be bought to satisfy the needs of the ETF. I've seen some bad takes that say if it's cash redemption, there's no Bitcoin. That's goofy sauce. It's just whether person A or person B is doing the buying. I mean, this is deep in the weeds, Arcana. You won't experience much as an outside observer. You won't experience any

difference. It'll still trade at penny wide spreads, most likely. It'll still be extremely efficient and low cost, all of those things. We're really just fiddling on the edges of, is it a little bit more like a mutual fund structure or like a traditional ETF structure. And, you know, I don't know what we'll see. Obviously, there's a live dialogue. You're seeing that in the BlackRock documents, but we'll get there one way or the other. And they asked Gensler, I think yesterday or the day before about the ETF. And his response was, this is a field that is rife with bad actors and rife with fraud and manipulation and money laundering. I don't know if you saw that. But hey, Gary, can you tip your hat to say how the process is going?

And he just did the whole like everybody in crypto sucks. He's not going to give us a hint, right, of anything that's to come. No, no, no. I think we've heard that for a couple of years from him. You know, he has started to say this is a decision of the commission and all sorts of things. So if we're reading the details of the tea leaves, softening a little bit. But, you know, he still doesn't doesn't love this space. And that should surprise no one. But I think you can look at the other filings and see sort of activity that's positive. Right. So I think like to wrap it in a bow, I want to talk about a couple other things. It's still very likely that we get the at least initial approvals by January 10th, but that doesn't mean that we're necessarily going to see an ETF launch at that point,

and it could take a bit of time. And it will be hilarious to watch the market. I just can't imagine if we get news of an ETF approval, but then somehow it's like, but it will be hilarious to watch the market. I just can't imagine if we get news of an ETF approval, but then somehow it's like, but it's not going to launch the takes that we'll get as a result of that. Oh, it'll be awesome. This is crypto. So always the most complex, hard thing happens. So that's probably what's on track. And it'll take like six months to do it for no apparent reason. And then Bitcoin will go in half because people will say that it's not going to get approved. Speaking of Bitcoin, though, I don't know if you saw this. I have to mention it because it just came up. Sailor's at it again. Did you see this? I did. I did. Beautiful thing.

Yeah. MicroStrategy has acquired an additional 16,130 Bitcoin for 593.3 million. I mean, it's just like an endless cash. An average price of 36,785. For anyone who's counting, that's below the current price. Everybody loves to say that he always buys above whatever the current price is top of the market. So as of 11-29-23, that being yesterday, they hold hodls. 174,530 Bitcoin acquired for 5.28 billion at an average price of 30,252. So he raised his cost basis by a few hundred dollars. I think it was in the 29,000s, but he's just never going to stop. He's never going to stop. And that's an important thing to think about in the crypto environment. We have these sort of sinkholes of Bitcoin where Bitcoin is going and never comes out. These Bitcoin black holes, MicroStrategy is one of them.

An ETF will have in and out flows, but net, it's going to be sucking in Bitcoin. It's a great setup. You can look at the amount of Bitcoin that hasn't moved in over a year. Mike Alfred talks about it. There's a lack of Bitcoin available hasn't moved in over a year. Mike Alfred talks about it. There's a lack of Bitcoin available for sale. It's a crisis. I'd love to see a sailor out there continuing to get after it. And there's no reason to imagine he's going to stop. Yeah, you got to love it. I mean, it's just incredible to watch. I do remember when if

Bitcoin dropped below 20,000, MicroStrategy was going to get liquidated and it was the end of the market. Can you think back? It's just amazing, even throughout the ETF, just how many false narratives people have hung their hats on for what's going to happen in this market. It's incredible. And also to see opinions swing from just a year ago to today. It's absolutely incredible. I'm at a conference with financial advisors. I was at the same conference last year. I showed them the chart of what happened over the last year, Bitcoin up 130% or so. And it was just amazing to see them sort of realize that this market that they thought was disappearing isn't, right?

It's back, never went anywhere. I think it is fun to see the takes. Curious, your thoughts on the seemingly prevailing narrative now that we have from the anti-crypto army. It seems they've really shifted to this terrorist funding. Hamas, obviously, being the catchphrase. We've seen it quite a bit. I don't know if you saw this news, but Wally Adiemo, who is Deputy Secretary of the Treasury, obviously, effectively Janet Yellen's right hand, he apparently is going on a pretty aggressive

roadshow right now without naming Tether, but against stable coins and saying they need to be stopped for their usage. This was his quote. Over several years, Binance allowed itself to be used by the perpetrators of child sexual abuse. I never heard that one. Illegal narcotics trafficking and terrorism across more than 100,000 transactions. And I only saw this because Dan Spuller, right before our show, actually, who from the Blockchain Association, he's one of the biggest lobbyists in Washington working on crypto, said that he was with Wally yesterday and it was really bad. He said that he thinks that the treasury has another shoe to drop here and that they are certainly not done with the crypto industry. Treasury's Wally Adeyemo wants to crack down

on illicit finance enabled by crypto, a clear and present danger for national security. So it's fun to talk about all the good things about the ETF. Listen, I don't think this ends up moving the needle. We've dealt with this flood before, but I think it's important to remember that the United States government has not changed their stance here on their view of crypto, at least this administration. Yeah, I think that's absolutely right. And this is a real threat. Narratives can be hard to overcome, and they sink into the minds of Congress. You saw how the Wall Street Journal article, which was refuted almost immediately and with overwhelming data, is still making the rounds in Washington.

So these accusations, these narratives that have scary words in them really do matter. And the crypto industry needs to be front and center refuting them with data. The data is on our side in terms of the fraction of activity that goes towards illicit activity versus in cash or even in dollars. But that doesn't mean that we're out of the woods from a narrative perspective and that that can't severely slow down progress you know on my scorecard of things i want to see in 2024 for the bull market rally to continue is effective stablecoin regulation and things like this make me nervous about what that regulation will look like

so yeah there's there's a lot of green shoots but that doesn't mean that there aren't clouds in the sky as well so this is actually one that I really worry about. Those words, terrorism, whatever. Child of drug trafficking, child of, I have not heard those, right? We've been hearing the terrorist financing, but they're now kind of, and you don't just see like these things randomly spoken, right? I think that there's a purposeful narrative behind it. And he said this as importantly, as you can see in the article, but he said this at the Blockchain Association's Policy Summit. He said this to a room full of people that they're trying to effectively convert and woo to our side and mostly crypto advocates and had no problem saying that.

And this comes at the same time as OFAC and FinCEN have quietly been asking Congress for more powers to crack down on the industry, which was a story that just kind of got missed even in the last week that that's been reiterated. It just seems like there's one side that really wants to go after this. And it's kind of scary to your point because Tether's become so big, right? I mean, people haven't looked. I wrote a newsletter on it yesterday, but I think there was a peak $60 billion or something for USDC. It's down to $30 something, right? The one that people viewed as the safer and regulated stable coin being Circle has cut its market cap effectively in half, really, because of Silicon Valley bank scare and all those things. But Tether, because the rest of the world

has been in a bull market forever while the United States is panicking about everything. Tether is almost going to hit 100 billion. It's at 89. So Tether is becoming a much, much more significant part of this market relative to other stable coins. And if he doesn't say Tether, but he says offshore stable coins,

who are we talking about? That's exactly right. And the U.S. can go after offshore entities. Look at Binance, right? Don't think because they're offshore, they're free from that coverage. They can really slow down stable coins in the U.S., which is obviously one of the killer apps of crypto. And yeah, narratives, again, are hard to fight against.

They stick in the minds of people who are inherently skeptical of crypto. And I think the industry needs to be really aggressive in rebutting this with facts immediately and at every level. We can't assume that everything is hunky-dory. I mean, Chainalysis and Elliptic, who were quoted in the first Hamas article immediately said this is completely untrue. But we all know that once it's printed and once people see the original article, even fake news travels faster and nobody ever sees the retraction, literally ever. That doesn't happen. That is exactly right. And, you know, I can say, you know, I mentioned that that that that tech that tether paper

from like six years ago, I was having conversations in Washington about it every year. I think this is the first year I haven't had a conversation in Washington about it. That's how long these things stick in people's minds. They don't pay full attention to crypto. They don't follow the retraction. And those headlines stick in their minds. And it really slows us down. It's really scary. Yeah, I think it's terrifying. So I know we're up against time here. Is there any final thoughts? I mean, it does seem like we are heading towards a likely approval, at least one way or another.

I think the real message is it doesn't matter if it's January 10th or April 5th or, you know, July 12th or, you know, September 48th. It seems like we are on the right path. That's exactly right. I think for people, for most investors who are making multi-year bets on where Bitcoin is going, everything's beautiful because we're moving in positive directions. If you're trading, it's important to know these nuances, which is the market thinks January 10th is this end-all be-all date, and it may be. But there is more nuance in the ETF approval system than maybe people are reading into it. And even if we're moving in a positive direction, that's important to keep in mind.

So I'm really optimistic about 2024, not just for an ETF, for various reasons, but the ETF is a big part of it. But I would take a more generalized approach to its approval if I wanted to be the most confident I could. Perfect. So guys, let's just keep our heads and wits about us. Everybody, Matt's Twitter is that X, excuse me, I still call it Twitter. I can't. It's right down below in the description. If you want to keep up with everything happening, certainly with Bitwise and the ETF, he's your guy. Matt, thank you. I always appreciate the conversation,

especially when I know you're at a conference and not even in your office. Thanks so much for your time. Always a pleasure. Thanks for having me, Scott. Awesome. There you go, guys. That's the story.

The Bitcoin ETF could be rejected for this reason. Man, I don't know. I can't, like that this one was pretty dumb honestly i sent you i sent them like 10 pictures and it came back and i was like yeah it's not the one but hey you know we're gonna roll with it anyways it is what it is and of course guys since uh today is thursday it means it's time for some charts and that means it's time for the chart guys although dan you're just one, you're just one guy. Just one guy at the moment. Yes. The chart guys, it's right there. We need another guy.

Yeah. I'll get another guy. A mannequin. We'll get a little mannequin. We do. That would be hilarious if we had a mannequin. By the way, have you been watching Bitcoin mining stocks? I did a whole stream on it yesterday with Mike Alfred and we were talking about Iris. I'm just dunking because two days before he was like, dude, just take a look at it. I bought a bunch. It went from like 380 to five bucks in two days. Absolutely amazing. I know you love these things though. Yeah. Coin sparked it and then we had a little bit of a slight laggard move out of the miners behind it.

But yeah, a nice shift in terms of finally playing some laggard catch up to the strength Bitcoin has been seeing over the last few weeks. Yeah. I mean, coin has been absolutely blasting off. I mean, breaking that kind of, I don't even know if I have the chart, but breaking this accumulation range that it's been in for so long. I just love this chart. Yeah. 116. Maybe it'll come back deeper. I don't know. It's pretty overbought here, but still, man. The takeaway on that chart is there's many charts like it where after a period of bearish action, you have a clear level. There was that little double top. I think it was 114, 116. Yeah, right here. And once you clear that level, there's a lack of resistance. And so, it's almost like it's the next best thing to blue sky breakout. If you're not hitting all time highs, but you're hitting an area with a lack of price resistance because we

dump down, that's when there's some significant opportunity. And because of the 2022 bear market in stocks, there were a lot of names that had that kind of pattern before finding their temporary bottom and shifting momentum. Yeah. I mean, it's just like a Wyckoff accumulation schematic. For anybody who follows it, you got your spring and then finally you jump across the creek and break out. What are you watching these days? What are you looking at specifically with Bitcoin and markets that continue to go up no matter what? So watching the... I'll share my screen here, watching, you know, obviously Bitcoin, I'm keeping an eye out for the possibility that it is a rising wedge, just in the sense that, you know, we get the break, no follow through, break, no follow through. But really all I care about is the higher lows.

And if we want to keep it as simple as possible, the Bitcoin bulls don't have anything to worry about if 36.7 is support, because that is our last little higher low. And if that level holds, we're going to stay in a daily uptrend. So if you want to make it as simple as possible, just keep walking up that key level. I call it the line in the sand or the benchmark level. And if that's holding, the bulls have their control. And it's the kind of thing where we know weekly consolidation is coming inevitably, eventually. So we want to stay agile and not be surprised when weekly consolidation shapes up, especially in some of these altcoins. But I'm open to both right now. We can definitely see it move up to 39,000 plus, and we can definitely see weekly consolidation start. So really just

approaching one day at a time with an open mindset, knowing we can easily do both in the short term here. 38 has been a really tough level to crack. I mean, actually, it's kind of like I'm looking 37,900, really. But I mean, kind of that 38,000 psychological level, such a key resistance from last year, Luna, all these sort of reasons you can give outside the chart. But it does seem like we get these pushes above 38. And then it's that long wake up, right? Just smack down every single time. And that's one of the major differences. People talk about what are the differences in these different markets? Well, you go back to 2017. One of my strategies was market buying bull breaks. And you would see 5% to 10% follow through instantly on resistance breaks.

And it's obviously very different in this. And a lot of it has to do with just a whole lot more liquidity in the markets or in this sector. And that's one of the major differences is not buying breakouts. You want to be entering on consolidation. And that's something to definitely, you know, I mean, altcoins, certain altcoins will break resistance and get a significant amount of follow through. But generally speaking, Bitcoin doesn't see buying resistance breaks being the ideal time for entry. Yeah.

Some altcoins always seem to work when you're really in the heat of the cycle. But yeah, Bitcoin likes to just make you look like or feel like a fool. I think no matter what you're doing is kind of the secret. So what do you make then? Well, maybe we should talk about the market in general. I mean, stocks, we had this kind of dip right coming into November where it looked like maybe things were turning over or losing 200 MA and 50 MA on different big, large timeframes and then just blast right back off. Yeah. This was a very impressive move and a very unusual move in terms of the amount

of follow-through. One thing that I've been saying for the last few weeks is I'm treating this as, I'm reminding myself every day, this is not normal price action. Because if I'm looking for normal price action, we would have consolidated two weeks ago. And it's the kind of thing you look at like JP Morgan. It had a higher low every single day for 19 days. That's insane. Netflix had a higher low every single day for 19 days. That's insane. Netflix had a higher low every single day for 18 days in a row. So it's just an incredible amount of follow through where the bulls had their paws on the throat of the bears. I guess they have hooves. The bulls had

their hooves on the throat of the bears just heading up. And so we know weekly consolidation is inevitable. You look at the NASDAQ, you look at Bitcoin, and it's not going to surprise us when it happens. And then we're going to look for weekly higher lows because of the size of the move that we've seen over the last five weeks or so. So it's essentially these few days, things are starting to balance out a little bit, and we're looking, okay, is it time for the weekly consolidation to get going? And we're going to get the answer to that question probably by the end of this week. But another place that I'm still focusing as I've been talking about heading into next year is metals, gold and silver. It's still looking real good and loving how gold confirmed

the weekly uptrend. And it's testing all time highs again. We just came one to 2% away and the miners finally caught up. If you look at the leveraged miners like NUGT or JNUG, they had real big days on Tuesday. And just again, clearing to levels that we haven't seen in months. So just showing that shift in momentum. And so I focus on anything that's near blue sky breakout. And if gold can get the party going into price discovery, all time highs, then anticipating that silver and these miners, whether it's GDX, GDXJ, or the leveraged versions, looking for them to benefit as well. So still not there just yet, but gold is knocking on the door of all-time highs. Yeah. I mean, I'm looking right. I mean,

in a month, basically silver is over 20, about 25%. I mean, these charts are looking pretty crazy. Yeah. I agree with you on gold. I mean, we've had, I've had a number of guests who were like, oh, we need that all-time high from gold and it's going to 3000, like fast. That's aggressive, but yeah. But I think a blue sky breakout on an asset like gold that's been trading literally for thousands of years is something that could be the trade of the next couple of years. Yeah. I mean, even if it just goes 10% over all-time highs, I don't like the lofty targets. That's not my approach, but even 10% into all-time highs, I think can spark a lot of the outpouring of bullishness to these other assets. Because the miners have been significantly

underperforming gold for a long time and we're seeing a little bit of catching up. And so it's just a question of, does the all-time high spark confidence enough for a lot of money to pour into those miners? Yeah. It's going to be interesting to see if people still sort of view gold as the flight to safety in this situation, especially if stocks keep going up. I think if gold breaks an all-time high and all of a sudden we see like some 10% quick correction in stocks, then I think we see gold go absolutely crazy. But with stocks going up, I just don't see people fleeing to gold immediately just because it's broken that all-time high, but maybe I'm wrong. Yeah, that's a good point. We can go up with stocks, but as far as a narrative, grabbing onto CNBC and grabbing onto the herd,

having it be a flight to safety is definitely the sexier story as far as headlines. In context of all of this, is there anything else that you're specifically trading right now, really watching? I mean, I know you would go through these sector, you were like on the weed for a while, uranium for a while and really making a ton of money. Is there anything where you see the market rotating into? No, I mean, it's really just keeping an eye on the metals and again, watching what does this next weekly consolidation look like? Because as we know, the NASDAQ is knocking on the door of all time highs. And the question is going to be, is this a monthly cup and handle? And so if the weekly consolidation that will be inevitable, if it's healthy, you know, if we back test and hold EMA 12 and form a little bull flag, then we're still going to be looking for all time highs to be on the table as we head into next year.

If we were trace, you know, 50% plus of the move that we just saw then that's the bear saying wait a minute you know it's not easy free and clear street that cup and handle is pretty like pretty crazy it's hard to be yeah it's hard to be bearish that chart i just look at that chart and say that's extremely bullish and i'm fine going bearish the bears just have to give me a very clear reason to go bearish and it's not on that chart right now. So that chart has to significantly shift for the bears to prove to me that that's not a very bullish chart. And the balances have been huge.

Every time you think they're about to turn down aggressively, you get like one monster candle that engulfs the entire bearish move and it's over. Yeah. And we're seeing, you know, a bit of complacency. We see it every time in terms of the bears were complacent for three months of their pullback into November. And now the bulls are starting just getting used to everything just keeps going up. And anytime we get that complacency, we just pay a little bit of extra attention because the market loves to surprise

people. But the burden is on bears in the broader market and in the metals and in crypto. That's for sure. So bottom line right now, I don't know if you have any other charts, but is that things remain bullish until proven otherwise? Is that correct? Things remain bullish. Expect weekly consolidation. It's inevitable. And then we're going to get a lot of information based on what that consolidation looks like, the amount of retracement, the amount of volume behind it. But again, I react to markets. I will

turn bearish when the bears prove to me that I should. And until then, going to stick with the prevailing trends. Love it, man. Always love when you come in with the quick alpha, get it done. And we know exactly where you stand. Guys, everybody follow Dan, chartguys on X and check out his YouTube channel where you can watch him with a lot more people than are watching here and have fun learning a lot more

about what he's doing, man. Thank you so much as always. See you next week. Appreciate it, Scott. Have a good one. All right, guys. That's all we got for you today. Maybe tomorrow I'll do this.

I don't know. Thumbnail. I'm still, it's making me feel weird. It's making me feel weird. I think we can get there. You know, with time, it's a slippery slope. It's like you smoke once and then all the, you know, and that's your thumbnail. That's like still all buttoned up. And then all of a sudden, a month later, you're like doing crack and you know, but I guess we'll see what happens. Do this though. Guys,

thank you for tuning in. I think we got some great information, both from Dan and from Matt. Of course we have X spaces and 30 minutes at 10, 15 AM Eastern standard time, which should be massive. And I'm going to work on getting Dan Spaller and all those guys from blockchain association here to talk more about the comments from the treasury.

Cause little bit scary. It's all I got for you guys today. guys from Blockchain Association here to talk more about the comments from the treasury because little bit scary. It's all I got for you guys today. I will see you here tomorrow. Friday 5 is back tomorrow with Nathaniel Whittemore. I know you guys have been waiting. It's been a couple of weeks. It's going to be awesome. We'll review all the big headlines of the week. Peace. Let's go.