The Wolf Of All Streets - The Bitcoin ETF will do THIS... And Bitcoin Will Hit $133,000 l Deezy

Episode Date: December 7, 2023

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Today's guest, Deezy, tells me that Bitcoin is going to $133,000 this cycle, or is it $138,000? But my response is, why are you so bearish? I honestly think we can go much higher in this cycle. He also has a very good case for exactly what's going to happen when we see the approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF. We're talking about this, all the news, and of course, I have Dan from ChartGuys on the back end to tell us what's going on with the market. You guys don't want to miss this one. Let's go.

What is up, everybody? I'm Scott Melker, also known as the Wolf of All Streets. Before we Let's go. But that's not going to stop us here live on making some bold predictions about what may happen when we get a Bitcoin spot ETF approval. And once the halving kicks in and once the four year cycle kicks in, how high can Bitcoin go? idiots in the last cycle who saw Bitcoin break $65,000 and go to $69,000 and thought we were going to Star Trek teleport directly to $100,000 with no resistance. And we went down to $15,000 something. Hence why I say my crystal ball is generally broken and my predictions are worthless. At that time, I thought we were going to easily go into six figures, potentially even push to around $235,000. If you were watching my streams back then, reading my newsletter, you saw that I described the parable of the ox, which is back in ye olden times, a guy basically, they had a fair. And at this fair, they let people guess the weight of an ox and the person

who was closest got to keep the ox. And what they found was that the individual guesses were absolutely horrid. People missed badly. No individual was good at guessing it. Nobody came even close. But when they averaged all of the guesses, it was actually within one pound of the actual weight of the ox, meaning that the wisdom of the crowd sometimes is good when you're making these predictions. And what I did last cycle was I took all the wild predictions, stock to flow, rainbow chart, even people that were saying Bitcoin was going to zero, averaged them all out and it was $235,000. I'm sticking to that for this cycle. But now I'm going to bring on Deezy and we're going to talk about his predictions. I know we got the boomer eyes. We said we wrote 133, then we squinted at the chart and said, nah, man, 138, right? Yeah, I have one caveat for that

prediction. I love that story about the ox and the more people, the more accurate the number. Really what you need though, because this is a handwritten number that you're written down. It's almost like a secret ballot. You write down the pound, you know, oh, I think it's 2,800 pounds. But with predictions, what people say might not be what they actually think. And so really what you need, you need a lie detector test. Where do you really think it's going? And then average all those out. Well, yeah, I mean, we're going to talk about Jamie Dimon later. We know some of these people aren't really saying what they mean when they go out publicly, to your point, and we will get into that.

But I want to talk first about your prediction, where that comes from, the idea that we could hit 133,000 in this cycle. And then we'll go back into the ETF and then we'll talk about the news. So I see you got a chart here. Let's- Yeah, I got a chart here. This is, let me make sure I throw his name, CryptoCon underscore, if you want to follow his content. He's often making charts. This is all the way back in October 17. And I found this buried deep in an article somewhere. So I've been following him ever since. The problem with a lot of these stock to flow,

rainbow charts, everything you see, they almost all fail in 2021. When you see that it worked in 2017, you see that it worked in 2014, it comes in, 2021 was a little bit bearish. It's almost always under. This is one of the first indicators I've seen back tested all the way back to,

it looks like the trend line starts in 2011. And you know how rare trend line and crypto, you know, or any kind of chart to be accurate that far back. And the trend line basically catches the bottoms of the first run up to predict the second cycle top. And you see it worked out perfectly measuring the bottoms 2011,. Perfectly measured the 2017 top. Did the same thing with the 2014, 2015, 2016 lows. Then perfectly got, not the May top or the April top, actually got the November top. And then using this same chart,

you can see it's bouncing off these trend lines beautifully, given as 138K. So I do feel, my heart says it's bearish. My mind says it's bearish. But then my analytical mind, I look at this and I say, I really hate to bet against this successful trend line or indicator. Yeah. If it ain't broke, don't try to fix it kind of thing. But in the last cycle, we had or two cycles ago, that 20-ish high. And obviously obviously we topped here at 69,000, about a three and a half X, right? Going from the 69 top to 133, it's barely even a two X, right? So it is a conservative guess when people, if you look at it actually logarithmically or in terms of multiples of

appreciation, it's actually 133 is a very, 138 is a very conservative target. I don't think it's aggressive at all. Like it's funny, people will see those numbers and say, you're crazy. That's not very high. Like every cycle, maybe the volatility will diminish. We'll get more institutions. We'll get more volume that could do that. But, you know, listen, I mean, just take that

even the less, the more conservative one and just do 70,000 times four, you're 280,000, right? Yeah, and if you look at, you know, the diminishing turns, it was close to a 20X from cycle top here to cycle top here. And then that 20X diminished to a 3.5X, 20K to 70K essentially, or right underneath it. So yeah, going from 20X to 3.5X to 2X, some might even say that's bullish. A lot of people are saying, no, it might be closer to 1.5x. I'm seeing a lot of calls for Bitcoin not even cracking 100k. I feel like we will have a lot of sell pressure around the high 90s, 95, 99 for sure. But I do think we'll knock on that door. I do think we'll break through it. It'll act as support for maybe two months, maybe it's six months. But I do think we have to go above 100K. There's too much interest from sovereign nations. You got Qatar Fund, too much interest from the big banks. And you brought up Jamie Dimon. They're saying one thing, but they're

secretly doing another thing. Yeah. You know what? Let's talk about that right now and then we'll get into the ETF part. I want to show you guys what jamie diamond had to say yesterday uh to our good friend elizabeth warren and i'm wondering if maybe the tone and comments that he made were very specific to the person who was asking the questions because we all know where she's staying you mean like uh well the first role of comedy is know your audience that's right maybe knew his audience and playing to the crowd here that's what i I'm saying. Elizabeth Warren, we all know, and this is not some tinfoil hat conspiracy theory. She's the most powerful person in the Senate, certainly with regard to banking and finance, right? She heads the committee, but we also know that it's sort of her lackeys and plants that are in the White House that are

forming policy. We also know that part of her support for Joe Biden was that she got to basically choose who the SEC chairman was and was going to have control over banking. And that's how we got Gary Gensler. Right. So not a surprise that Jamie Dimon would sit in Senate when asked questions about crypto by Elizabeth Warren and give her the answer she wanted. I would say that this is pretty. I'm going to do an unfair persuasion technique. That's really it's not really a fair thing, but it's called setting the table. Trump did it very, very well. I'm going to go ahead and set the table here before we even sit down to eat.

The way she's nodding when, you know, we're saying, Jamie, he's playing to his audience. He's no, he's talking to Elizabeth Warren. You can see the eagerness. It reminds me, she is the Jack Nicholson meme from the Leo DiCaprio movie. You just see the, I mean, her head's about to fall off her neck.

I'm not saying her neck is frail it probably is but just let's just watch her if i had to get if i had to guess i would i would deem her frail naked yeah i don't think she's doing mike tyson network opposed to crypto bitcoin etc you pointed out the only true use case for it is criminals drug traffickers anti-money learning tax avoidance and that is a use case case because it is somewhat anonymous, not fully. And because you can move money instantaneously and because it doesn't go through, as you mentioned, all these systems have built up over many years. Know your customers, sanctions, OFAC.

They can get bypass all of that. If I was the government, I'd close it down. Okay. Okay. Okay. If I were, okay, you're moving on, uh, moving on to the subway sandwich, uh, monopoly that you was so eager to tweet about anyways.

I don't know if you missed that, but it was pretty hilarious. Yeah. Yeah. Uh, yeah, it's, it's not a inflation. It couldn't be inflation. It's those pesky lettuce, uh, distributors. Oh man. If I had a time, if i had a penny for every time big lettuce kept me down from uh you know reaching that next economic level i'd i'd be a millionaire it's big shredded cheese it gets me every time it's like you know i just want to i want to do the like slices they're shredding it it's the cost for that is exceptional anyways so listen anti-money you know it's it's anti-money laundering, all the things, right?

We're probably trafficking children, Hamas, legal terrorist funding, all these things. That's bad because it's Bitcoin. But I just want to present a few things about JP Morgan and see what you have to say about them, right? This is one of my favorite sites, Violation Tracker, industry summary page, obviously for the banks. Now, I cannot claim that JP Morgan is the worst because Bank of America has paid $87 billion in financial fines on 324 records. But JP Morgan coming in a close second, $39 billion in fines on 272 violations. This is something that happens every single year for people who don't pay attention. Somewhere around the end of the year, it's like 10 billion, 20 billion, 1 billion, 2 billion, whatever, for some sort of violation. JP Morgan recently fined $4 million for accidentally deleting 47 million emails.

First of all, how the fuck do you have 47 emails? Second of all, how do you accidentally delete all of them when you have redundancy and systems for all of this and well they had some staffers uh from a certain family that's uh well known in political circles you know oh man it was it was an accident of course yeah her letter emails but his emails and then i mean listen this is just a few right you guys may have remembered this one jb morgan reaches 200 million settlement with jeffrey victims. I mean, literal child trafficking probably here, right? And guys, we've seen these violations over and over and over again. A few years, obviously, J.P. Morgan had a huge money laundering fine that they paid for decades of laundering money, right?

So to have this particular person sitting on the floor of the Senate railing about how this industry is so bad and criminal and it should be banned. First of all, where are our rights, right? Land of the free, home of the brave. But it sounds like he just doesn't want it to compete with his own criminal activity. Yeah, I mean, he's the only game in town when it comes to trafficking children, of course. I mean, if you're willing to pay a quarter billion dollars, you know, hey, that's you want a little protection on your investment, I'm sure. Yeah. So but the other flip side of this entire thing is we have a very vivid illustration of watch what they do and not what they say, right? Because JP Morgan is as all in on blockchain technology, but privately as any institution in the world, right? BlackRock shares GoDigital on JP Morgan's Onyx blockchain.

I talk about this all the time. JP Morgan, on behalf of BlackRock, tokenized a money market fund, sent it to Barclays as a test. It was faster, it was cheaper, and they're able to immediately use this as collateral. JP Morgan, by the way, JP Morgan coin, they settle privately with their own coin international. And Cadena is a project that literally came out of the team that created JP Morgan coin in the first place. This is how JP Morgan intends to settle cross-border and to utilize tokenized assets in the future. It's not just this one. JP Morgan's digital asset processes up to $2 billion daily. This is happening right now. And of course, JP Morgan and Apollo reimagined wealth management with tokenization. How can the guy be saying this

about crypto on the floor of the Senate and his company is doing this very publicly? Well, the scariest theory I've heard, the ultimate tinfoil hat, you know, this is, you know, the person that this is for that one uncle that has a bunker. I don't know if I would go this far, but this is, you know, maybe kind of what I've heard. Well, you see Riot, Mara, all of these big mining, publicly traded Bitcoin mining corporations. If you look at who holds the stock, you're going to see BlackRock. You're going to see the same players. The craziest, wildest theory I've heard is they want to have enough control over mining Bitcoin

where then they can publicly bash it, publicly bash it, and then maybe create some sort of more green fork, a Bitcoin cash situation, Bitcoin gold situation. And then after the fact, they would say, well, we're not in charge. The servers, the miners chose this. We didn't choose this. Ultimately, they're the ones making the decisions in the background. So then they can take control of the forked Bitcoin network. That's further down the rabbit hole

than I would personally go, although I think anything is viable. The place I would take this is that he's really against the decentralized public side so that he can control it on a private institutional blockchain and basically put a walled garden around it entirely. And I think that this is one of the intentions of Wall Street in general with any industry. But this is why I also think, and this will be a nice segue to the next topic, that a Bitcoin spot ETF approval makes a lot of sense. Because now Gary Gensler, who's been railing against it all this time, can say, I was just waiting for the trusted institutions that we all know are safe and secure to come in. That's why I rejected it for so long. But now it's Black Rock, guys. This is safe. And then he can go shit on everything else we have in the industry once know are safe and secure to come in. That's why I rejected it for so long. But now it's BlackRock,

guys. This is safe and that he can go shit on everything else we have in the industry once he approves that. I feel like this is just another step towards the inevitable Wall Street control of a burgeoning asset class. Well, people get really excited about this Bitcoin ETF. They get excited for a bunch of reasons. I would say the most bullish one, well, one institutional money coming in. But if you look at the past, what does that mean? Is this a super cycle? Is this Bitcoin to a million dollars? I'm of the opinion it's best to look at the past to dictate what the future is going to hold. So the best comparison, the best contrast I can come up with is the gold ETF. And when the gold ETF was first launched on the New York Stock Exchange, this was November 18th, 2004. And then afterwards, gold went on a eight-year bull run, everybody.

And a lot of people just kind of take that as a given, but is that really what happened? Was it, oh, gold ETF approved, green candles from henceforth? Well, let's actually go back. Don't expire me here. All right. Don't make me... Well, I just got moved all the way to 2022. So give me one. All right. I love it. My favorite thing, by the way, is opening old altcoin charts.

And all I see is a blank screen because the price is down so far from last time I opened that chart that it's no longer on there yet. Yeah, that's always a great time. All right. So it was November 18th, 2014 or 2004. So here we are. We it was November 18th, 2014 or 2004. So here we are, we're identifying November 18th. You can see, unless you have boomer eyes like me, you can see I circled the actual candle. Well, it's interesting. We actually had a couple of pullbacks beforehand, kind of around the same time we have JP Morgan CEO publicly bashing Bitcoin. So, you know, maybe there's

a couple of opportunities for institutions to get in a little bit cheaper. But after this November 18th date, we had about two weeks of green candles. It was not buy the rumor, sell the news event. So if you sold that day, you end up missing out on some gains. But folks, I want to show you something. Now, gold is not going to behave the same way as Bitcoin. Bitcoin is going to be more volatile to gold. I would say maybe three times as volatile. I'm just going to kind of throw out a round number here. Well, gold ended up retracing 10% two weeks after the gold ETF. So I would say Bitcoin might have a 30% retracements on its hands. So if history repeats itself or even kind of rhymes slightly, we're going to see a pullback

approximately two weeks after the Bitcoin ETF approved. The Bloomberg analysts, they're given 90% odds. We're going to see that January 10th. It's going to be the 8th, the 9th, or the 10th of January. That's a Monday, a Tuesday, Wednesday. Indications seem like it's going to be January 10th. I don't have the inside knowledge. I'm not the senior Bloomberg ETF analyst. I don't have these Wall Street people on the horn. He does. And he's saying 90% odds for January 10th. That would say, you know, kind of indicate maybe towards the end of January, we could have, this is 71 days, we could have a two-month bloody period, which would be perfect to shake out the greed, perfect to shake out the

weak hands. And then meanwhile, they're scoopinging it up and then you can go ahead and start that eight-year bull run i don't know if we'd get an eight-year bull run that would be right into the having by the way that'll be right into the having and then that uh and then you see that period of sort of sustained sideways after the drop right so there's an eight-year uh bull run but as i'm looking at your chart it kind of uh went up obviously on the event went down as you 10%, and then traded sideways for quite a long time. Yeah, good point. Just to get it out loud, if you look at the Bitcoin halving cycles, I probably have the chart. Let me see. Either way, you generally get-

200 days until we kind of pass that new high. So it took 200 days. Yeah. And if you guys guys recall every single time we get the having then an extremely boring summer and then up only starts in september october like really october right october november december and then you plow through the next summer and that summer of the last cycle 65 000 top and then a very boring summer down to sub 30 and back up to 69 when the fall came so that would actually align exceptionally well with you get these few weeks, we had a downtrend into the halving and then kind of slowly rise sideways through the summer and then up only. Guys, our predictions are as good as anyone else's.

This is what has happened, though, generally after previous halvings. Yeah, this is starting to look like a perfect storm. You know, with the four-year cycle, with the summer lulls, with, you know, with the gold ETF in the past and just kind of what we expect with Bitcoin's history. And not only that, Wall Street typically does this in Q4 versus Q3. Everything is, you know, kind of aligning pretty well

for history to have, you know, maybe a similar period of what we saw with the gold ETF. Yeah. My sort of take on the likely ETF situation, I have no idea. I do think we see sort of a god candle afterwards. I just can't imagine it selling off majorly. Anything can happen, but it really does align with this. I just don't see a buy the rumor, sell the news. I see a buy the rumor, buy the news, and then wait for a huge dip after to buy some more. I don't want to get in the way. I don't want to, as Dave Weisberger always says here, I don't want to be the guy picking up pennies in front of a steamroller trying to

short it or selling some and then seeing it 100 days later going parabolic for eight years. That's not the guy I want to be with my long-term stack. Yeah. And from that ETF, it was about two months later, but then you can see a slightly higher low, parabolic for eight years that's not the guy i want to be with my long-term stack yeah and from that etf it was about yeah two months later but then you can see a slightly higher low slightly higher low then like you said you know then it's uh that off to the races period that we kind of love from uh bitcoin but don't want to be caught unawares i always say a max pain isn't oh i should have sold here and you know i didn't end up selling. That hurts. But us Bitcoiners, you know, we're kind of four-year cycle people.

Well, if I hold long enough, I'll be back in the green. So it might sting, but it doesn't sting too much. Max Payne for Deasy is missing out because, oh, yeah, I'm going to deploy some capital. You kind of forget.

And then you end up missing your target and you watch the gains that could have been. To me, that's the most painful thing in crypto. I love sometimes the comments, especially the haterish ones. I just tuned in to hear some guys say eight-year bull run, LMFAO, F out of here. I want to show you guys something in that regard. When you zoom out, first of all, Bitcoin's been in a nonstop bull run. There's never a bear market if you zoom out

on Bitcoin. But this is the Dow Jones. And if you zoom out far enough, all the way to the 1890s, I personally see a 100 plus year bull market here with occasional dips. So you have to remember, guys, things trend up and to the right. An eight year bull market doesn't mean there's not a four year cycle in the middle of that. If this is starting at 40 and we end up in eight years at 235, in my opinion, that was an eight year bull market. Right. So I don't think I think it's all about time frame and zooming out. I don't think anyone's saying straight up for eight years. Yeah. We're talking about, you know, the rise and fall of civilizations, hundred year periods, Berkshire Hathaway, you know, in the 50s. Yeah. What's a what's a 12 month down period?

You know, that's basically what we got with bitcoin november to november yeah sure it was down for 12 months but then like you know to your point heading right back in the same direction all right there's one other thing i have to ask you about and it is um well let me let me set the table as you as you so aptly said bitcoiners obviously believe in freedom yes right libertarians everybody's free speech baby yeah everybody should be able to do whatever they want uh we live in a permissionless world uh max kaiser it's illegal to trade ordinals unregistered securities in el salvador same for nfts we had the debates the laws were written and passed. The end.

I would like to get a supercut of 2011, 2012 Max Keiser saying laws and governments and legislation can't stop Bitcoin. You can never stop Bitcoin with laws. Governments will never be able to stop it. And now he's number one cheerleader for government stopping Bitcoin. Yeah. He also cheered for the SEC over-regulating the rest of the crypto industry to protect Bitcoin. It just seems like cognitive dissonance. I had Udi Wertheimer on yesterday. I wish that this story had broken before he and I chatted because we were obviously talking about utilizing the Bitcoin blockchain for more things other than just as digital gold, ordinals, all all these things. But it seems like there's also a fundamental misunderstanding by Max here of what an ordinal is because it's just baked into the blockchain. I mean, if you send someone sats and there's an inscription on it, you're literally just

sending Bitcoin. But this is crazy town. town i mean not only that there's a core update you know where it kind of fixes the issue in his eyes and you know i thought it was up to the miners you know which uh version of the software they want to run it's almost like he's kind of trying to be a little authoritarianism here yeah uh we're gonna move on from him because he's the worst but well he also have good we could talk about his fashion sense you know i've had honestly wait i shouldn't say he's worse i've had him on my show multiple times he i don't think he likes me because i'm a shit coin or whatever but obviously he'll come on the show i have to find it he went we were sitting at bitcoin miami

in person and he went on the arguably greatest run of expletive description for Elizabeth Warren. I've ever heard in my life, like holding no, I mean, crack whore on the corner. He went way deeper and, um, you know,

at least he's got the, uh, and then escalated from there. Yeah. Yeah. Pocahontas apparently was crack work, but, uh,

yeah, John Smith, you know, I don't know what he was on. No idea what John Smith was up to when he came here. We don't even have video. They didn't have TikTok back then. But I want to show you one more thing before I let you go in a couple minutes.

Obviously, we talk about ETF, the halving. The other thing that people don't really talk about very much in terms of the same four-year cycle that happens to align as a presidential election, right? I think the odds are we'll get biden trump let's just be honest yeah we do have a lot of candidates out there speaking favorably of the industry and i think this is a worthy watch from vivic ram swami yesterday in the republican debate i love they have republican debates without the guy who's going to be the candidate but i guess that's

where let me go ahead to the table this was an unanswerable question you know there's a you saw an example of this you know trump was kind of given an unanswerable question where you you essentially can't answer the question you have to change the question you did it masterfully where you don't even notice it happening if i this is you know if i want to throw out the the trump example because this is kind of similar timeline trump very early early in the race. There's still, I think, eight other candidates at this point. And Megyn Kelly,

again, try to hit him with the gotcha. The Megyn Kelly's gotcha was you spoke poorly about women. And, you know, what was your response to that? And he said, I wasn't talking about all women.

I was talking about Rosie O'Donnell. And it totally took the oxygen out of the room. I knew then, all right, well, this guy can answer the unanswerable questions the vague just answered an unanswerable question let's hit it mr ramaswamy you've praised cryptocurrency like bitcoin as an opt-out from our quote

broken financial architecture and you oppose efforts to regulate it the head of the largest international crypto exchange just pleaded guilty to allowing his platform to launder money for terrorists, including Hamas. You say your cryptocurrency plan will, quote, ensure economic freedom for Americans, end quote. Won't it also ensure economic freedom for fraudsters, criminals and terrorists? Look, fraudsters, criminals and terrorists have been defrauding people for a long time. Our regulations need to catch up with the current moment. The fact that SBF was able to do what he did at FTX

shows that whatever they have as the current framework isn't working. And I think it is nothing short of embarrassing that Gary Gensler, the current leader of the SEC, in front of Congress, could not even say whether Ethereum counted as a regulated security or not. And so I think that this is just another example of the administrative state gone too far. Here's the dirty little secret in American politics today. The people who we

elect to run the government are not the ones who are even actually running the government. It is the bureaucrats in those three-letter agencies. Great stuff. Yeah, and I love that everybody then gets political in the chat. I can see it. You guys are, Vivek, truthfully, I don't give a shit about this guy, to be frank. I'm registered, unaffiliated. I generally try not to do politics. A good speech is a good speech, and a good answer is a good answer,

and I don't literally care who it comes from. Yep. Right. Yeah. I would agree. That is the answer that if you had asked a Bitcoin, not even Maxwell, it's a Bitcoin believer in the early days for why they support Bitcoin.

That's the kind of answer you would have gotten, whether it was on a political stage or in a coffee house, having a private conversation, that's kind of answers we need. It's correct. Yeah. Not only that is the answers we're all thinking, but he said it in a way that's just you know a little bit more elegant a little bit more sharp and the fact that he said well our system is broken so we do have to change it look at sbf and you're like well wait a minute then you're no longer thinking about

terrorism you're no longer thinking about freedom the easy answer is well if it makes it easier for americans won't it make it easier for terrorists well yeah that's the easy answer but he didn't do that and honestly that was a really really good job in answering that gotcha it was definitely a gotcha question then you know he flipped the table on them yeah it's uh it's pretty good pretty refreshing to see it right it doesn't mean i think the guy should necessarily be president or making policy but it's nice to hear people say the obvious quiet parts out loud. DZ man, thank you so much for joining. Everybody follow DZ down in the description is his Twitter. Where else should people?

Yeah, we're going to be live on Discover Crypto about an hour from now. Your show will be over by then, right? I don't want any cross. I don't want to, you know, OK, OK. All right. Yeah, we got a show going live on Discover Crypto one hour from right now. So make sure you check that out. We'll be covering the top news, looking at some trading stuff.

And Scott, always a great time, man, watching your content. You got one of the best Twitters in the entire game. One of the best X accounts in the entire game. And man, I just love your show. Awesome. And I think I'm going to be on Around the Blockchain next week. I think I saw it on my calendar. So I'll see you.

We'll bring the fire takes, man. I just say, that's the show i can go on and just just literally vomit the dumbest things out of my mouth and it seems to work you know just see the points rack up it's good i'll i'll come with all my crack whorisms for you uh next week hey man there's no uh no holds barred on that show love it man well thank you always for having me and a pleasure having you here for the first time really awesome we'll do this again soon all right later on the wolf pack all right right, man. Thank you. All right, guys. That was awesome. Yeah, I really enjoyed the Vivek clip. I really did not enjoy the Jamie Dimon clip, if we're being honest.

But now we can actually talk about what's going on in the market. I can say that I've been surprised by just how far Bitcoin has pushed and just how fast, but it's almost like I've never been here before if I'm surprised. I've got Dan the chart, joining. What's up, man? How are you? Good. How are you doing? $45,000 Bitcoin there on Coinbase for about five seconds. It gets fast when it gets going. Yeah. So what are you thinking of the market now? It's funny. I was making the joke. $38,000 seemed so amazing when we were breaking it. Now we're way above it. I can't even imagine the carnage if we're back at $38,000 seemed so amazing when we were breaking it.

Now we're way above it. I can't even imagine the carnage if we're back at $38,000 in sentiment. It would be a huge sentiment shift. Yeah, that's exactly right. I've been taking a little bit of profit into this euphoria. And again, breaking it up, long-term no-touch position, where if it keeps going, I keep benefiting. But shorter-term swing trading position, these are the kind of moves that I sell into. That's what I do as a trader. So looking to reload some consolidation and we're going to watch to see. We just hit hourly oversold conditions after euphoria. And that gives us information. Does hourly oversold mark a longer term higher low in this instance, maybe a 12 hour or a daily higher low. If it does, we know the party's still going and we still have momentum. If we keep pulling back, we just have to find a new support level. And just pulling up my chart here real quick, the last support level, as you mentioned,

38,000, there was a lot of price action around that level. And so that's the only thing we have nearby. And so we need something new. We need to pull back a little bit, cool off a little bit, find a new support level where we can move stops up, move supports up and say, this is now the new key level. And so bulls ideally want that to be in the 42,000 range to just keep the stair steps moving higher. But we have to see, we have to wait a couple of days here and see what this consolidation looks like. Yeah. I like that you mentioned that 42,000 kind of area. I think 38 is the key area. That's where I would love to see a pullback to 38 personally, just to make this a more...

I like the stair steps. I like to see resistance retested effectively as support. I hate to just go straight up because then it's like you're sitting at 60 and you're like, are we going to get 38 again? Yeah, we need weekly consolidation. We've gone straight up now eight weeks in a row, two months of just straight green. And again, I look at the weekly timeframe, where's support on the weekly? There's nothing nearby. So we zoom into the daily and we find that 38,000 level, but we need to find a new support here. And if the weekly consolidation takes us to 38 and sets a higher low, that would be very healthy. And I measure that with retracement in terms of how much of a pullback would that be? And it would be right at 382. And if 382 retracement is holding, that's potential

bull flag territory. So if weekly consolidation can hold 38, it's possibly a weekly bull flag, which would be great for the longer term trend. Yeah. And that's what I would expect unless we sort of get a surprise ETF approval tomorrow or something. I wouldn't be surprised if this just goes to 48 or 50. I think 48 is the 61.8 of the entire move down from 69. And we do tend to see the 61.8 at some point tapped in these halving cycles. But man, I really just want to see this thing go sideways. I really do. And then wait for the ETF approval to break out of that bull flag. If we got four or five weeks here of sideways consolidation, then we get the break up to that 48 or 50 on news. That's what I would like. Yeah. I mean, everybody wants higher prices, but those of us that have been in the game for many years or are traders or whatever, we know you have to establish supports on the way up because if we go straight

up from here, that means the pullback is going to be that much more brutal and that much more magnified. So again, taking your time and slowly building your way up, there's nothing wrong with that. And so bulls need to embrace consolidation when we see it, as long as it's nice and healthy, no increasing bear volume. And, you know, right now that daily consolidation is underway. And so it's not a bad thing. I mean, to me, the best example of this is that 20K, right? It was the all-time high, given it was an all-time high. It's different.

But we stopped there, broke it when Tesla announced they were buying Bitcoin, went straight to 42. That was, so look at November 20 when it finally broke above. November 2020, we did retest 20. We were never going to retest 20, everybody. It was a perfect bull market, came all the way back down from 69 to 20 and even below, and that took almost two years. So I'd just rather get these retests out of the way, on the way up than have to do it from 100 back down to 38. Yeah, that's that's the name of the game is building supports on the way up.

Because, again, if you want this move to last six months plus, you've got to establish supports on the way up. Yeah. So what else are you looking at right now with with that in mind? I mean, if we do get that sideways consolidation, my view is that altcoins will probably go nuts. Yeah. I mean, that's been the pattern. So again, that's not a bad thing. If we see, we want Bitcoin to find a little support level and then trade sideways because the pattern has been, and usually it's been weekends recently where Bitcoin trades sideways over the weekend and then the altcoins get their fun and that's what the traders focus on over the weekend. So I'm still watching ETH. I mean, it's been clearly underperforming Bitcoin for a long time,

but this is ETH BTC right now. And it's just, we've got a triple bottom basis support. And if anything's going to shift, this is where it's got to shift. So keeping an eye on it. And I treat this just like a trend. We've got to bounce. We We got to confirm a daily uptrend. Things have to significantly shift. And I'm certainly not saying now's the time to be going into ETH, but I'm watching for it. I'm watching for the time when ETH is going to start gaining against Bitcoin. Maybe that comes after an official ETF headline. That wouldn't surprise me where, you know, that marks a dominance climax little top for Bitcoin. But keep an eye on this ETH BTC base because it's all the bulls have to go off of. And this is their last hope in the short term.

I love it. I'll show you one more idea here. As I've said, I say it on the show a lot. We've only hit weekly RSI oversold four times on the ETH BTC pair. And obviously those have always been bottoms. We did that a couple of weeks ago. Now, if we get a close here on this weekly or any weekly below 0.052, we're going to very likely get bullish divergence with weekly RSI. Like there is this push down the second time has barely moved RSI to the downside, which

to me means that selling pressure is really ending. This is a sell off on lower volume. As you can see, the volume is decreasing. That could take weeks to play out, but I do am starting to feel like all the signals are there. Maybe it's my own bias, but are all there for Ethereum to outperform at some point in the coming weeks to months. Yeah. And again, you don't have to be aggressive and go for it right now. You can just ensure you're watching it and watching for the shift to take place. We talked about TLT a lot. I know you

had a nice trade there. And for me, it was just waiting for the first daily uptrend in three months that had me get in. And so, okay, ETHVTC, two-day timeframe, if I can type, two-day timeframe, when's the last time we've seen a clear higher low and higher high? It's been many, many months. So watch for things, get a chart and say, when this happens, it'll be the first time it's happened in X period of time. And then you make note of it because that can oftentimes lead to significant shifts. Yeah. Agree. What's the next chart you got up there? Talking about the metals, we talked about it last week and I was bullish metals and now I'm

definitely a bit cautious because- That candle made me super bear. Peter Schiff tweeting at the dentist top over 2100 new all-time high. Every signal we could have gotten that daily and well, we'll see how the weekly closes, but I see it right there. That candle wicking through the all-time high is just astoundingly cautionary in my opinion. I mean, aside from rejecting for a fourth time from resistance, this is the next worst candle that you can have on this weekly chart. I mean, to break all-time highs, it's so funny how fast it changes. Markets love FOMO to fear as fast as possible and vice versa. And to just, one of the most bullish futures opens that gold has had in an extremely long time where we just went straight up on futures opening and

then just, uh-oh, something is very wrong here because you don't want to break that level and then fall right back within the range and have it back as resistance again. So, you know, I've been banging the table on bullish metals for the last two months. And now I'm like, okay, definitely taking some profit. And we got to be cautious and see how this plays out over the next two weeks or so. Because I mean, the other aspect of that is the dollar may be forming a monthly higher low. I mean, for me, the dollar has a lot of space for a monthly higher low to try and form. And so, you know, if you're bullish, the metals or even crypto or stocks, you really don't want to see the dollar find a support here to try and form. And so if you're bullish, the metals or even crypto or stocks, you really don't want to see the dollar find a support here and try and head back up to where

we just came from. Still a lot of proving for the dollar bulls. But again, just keep an eye on that monthly chart because it's possible we set a higher low. I lost your audio, Scott. Interesting. I haven't taken a look at a Euro USD chart in a while, and I'm seeing the DXY bounce and figured that that meant everything else was dropping. But kind of one of the big stories today, I don't know if you watch this at all, but the yen is absolutely smoking the dollar over the last few weeks. And talk about, I mean, this was also an all-time high double top, by the way. Look at that. Picture perfect. I mean, to the literal penny, I think the dollar topped against the yen. But I would have thought that we all know that the euro is by far the most heavily weighted in the DXY. So I guess it's not that much surprise. But the dollar isn't performing well everywhere, being my point here. I don't know if you watch it against any other currencies, but the yen, they're going to probably end that negative interest rate environment. Their bonds sold off, their interest rates went flying,

and obviously the yen showing tremendous strength on that. Yeah. Good point. One more thing is the cannabis sector. We're talking back to the cannabis sector again. So at this point, this is MSOS, the ETF, and I'm watching in the absence of news, just a long drawn out tightening range to start next year. But I just want to give the heads up to everybody to keep an eye out for a headline because we're now anticipating, it reminds me of the Bitcoin ETF, just the wait, hurry up and wait. But we're waiting for a potential headline where if the DEA reschedules cannabis to schedule three, for me, that's a market buy headline. Because the last run that we saw, you know, 100% move was just from the headline that,

you know, the HHS is recommending that the DEA reschedule. So if we get the official headline, that's the kind of thing that to, you know, put some alerts out and just look for a massive move up on that news. And obviously obviously we don't want to be chasing. So if you can get on that headline early, that would be something to act on. Dan, they're calling us Jay and Silent Bob in the chat. You need the hat. Yeah. Well, yeah, I need, I need, I need a hat. No, I blew it. All I have is a shib oven mitt, you know? Yeah, I get that. Sometimes I get kid,

sometimes I get kid rock, but Jay is definitely the most common. Yeah, well, you know, the hair does, you know, uncanny, the straight long hair, it makes sense. Anything else you got or are we done for the day? Done for the day. Awesome. Well, we'll be back obviously next Thursday.

Guys, please follow Dan for God's sakes. I ask you every week. I hope you're doing it. Actually, I need to make sure I put it in the description because I'm going to put it in the description if I didn't guys please follow dan for god's sakes i ask you every week i hope you're doing it it's actually i need to make sure i put it in the description because i'm going to put in the description if i didn't because my producer isn't here and i just blow i blow something like epically every single day it's pretty understandable you've been giving me the links to get here so that's good yeah i do remember sometimes on macro monday i remembered to do that at nine Oh one this week. I started seeing

like Mike, Dave and James are like, um, do we have a link? And yeah, I'm bad at this, but anyways, that's what we got guys. Please follow him. Uh, Jeff says I need to gain about a hundred pounds in life, but also to be silent Bob, I think. Definitely. I don't think he's speaking in a vacuum, but I could, could use to put on some weight anyways. Dan, thank you so much, man. Always a pleasure. I align very much with what's happening there. Thank you. Have a good one, Scott. All right, guys, really quick. People are saying, I really want to know what's going to happen with your producer, Scott from Crypto Tax Lawyer. So he got out. I think I told you guys he got out. He's out on bail, technically. For those who didn't hear the story, he's traveling with a

Russian, Estonian, and Israeli passport from Mexico to the United States. He got detained. They asked him what he was doing. He said traveling, visiting friends, pet sitting. They said pet sitting is work. You have a travel visa. He said, I'm not getting paid to pet sit. I'm actually paying to come here. And then they put him in detention, took away his phone and his computer, didn't talk to anyone. Four days later, he gets cuffed at three o'clock in the morning and sent to Louisiana on a plane with like 50 immigrants who were declaring political asylum, all South Americans, right? And he's like, I'm in the wrong place.

Then if you actually finally, once we found him, got into the system, it said that he had been deported and he was actually sitting in a correctional facility in Louisiana. So he got very much lost in the system, which is absolutely insane. Finally got a lawyer. Seems that the reason he was detained is because he was carrying,

shocker, a Russian passport. And now he is out on bail. He's going back to Estonia on December 14th. Probably will never be able to come back and has a trial, which will be nothing, I think, on Zoom down the road. And while he was gone, other crazy things happened. Somebody literally stole his car. He just went back from detention. He went back to San Diego and trapped the guy with the police because the guy was selling his RV on Facebook. He saw his own RV for sale when the guy stopped responding to him. Absolute insanity everywhere, but he is okay. And I'm assuming that he will be back soon. That's the full story. I'm not even sure I was allowed to share it. So I got to get out of here

before I get in trouble. Guys, going to Crypto Town Hall, going to continue the Solana versus Ethereum debate. We've got Austin Federer from the Solana Foundation joining there. It's going to be great. Yesterday's show was incredible doing that same kind of topic. So much so that we're continuing today. And then tomorrow, of course, the Friday Five with NLW. It's going to be amazing. See you guys on Sp today and then tomorrow of course the friday five with nlw it's going to be amazing see you guys at on spaces and then tomorrow peace let's go