The Wolf Of All Streets - The Fed Wants You To Lose Your Job: Can Bitcoin Survive If They Break The Economy? | Macro Monday

Episode Date: July 24, 2023

The Federal Reserve is on the cusp of making a significant decision regarding a potential hike in interest rates. Peter Tchir, Mike McGlone, and Dave Weisberger delve into the potential ramifications of this decision and its impacts on the Bitcoin price and the overall cryptocurrency market. Peter Tchir: https://twitter.com/tfmkts Mike McGlone: https://twitter.com/mikemcglone11 Dave Weisberger: https://twitter.com/daveweisberger1 ►►MELD MELD will bring to bear the full power of decentralized financial instruments to the masses. Banks are at the heart of the economy, MELD will become a new set of banking tools that are by the people and for the people. 👉 https://www.meld.fi/early-access-apply?source=crypto_banter ►►OKX Sign up for an OKX Trading Account then deposit & trade to unlock mystery box rewards of up to $60,000!  👉 https://www.okx.com/join/SCOTTMELKER  ►►THE DAILY CLOSE BRAND NEW NEWSLETTER! INSTITUTIONAL GRADE INDICATORS AND DATA DELIVERED DIRECTLY TO YOUR INBOX, EVERY DAY AT THE DAILY CLOSE. TRADE LIKE THE BIG BOYS. 👉 https://www.thedailyclose.io/   ►►NORD VPN  GET EXCLUSIVE NORDVPN DEAL - 40% DISCOUNT! IT’S RISK-FREE WITH NORD’S 30-DAY MONEY-BACK GUARANTEE. PROTECT YOUR PRIVACY! 👉 https://nordvpn.com/WolfOfAllStreets   ►►COINROUTES TRADE SPOT & DERIVATIVES ACROSS CEFI AND DEFI USING YOUR OWN ACCOUNTS WITH THIS ADVANCED ALGORITHMIC PLATFORM. SAVE TONS OF MONEY ON TRADING FEES LIKE THE PROS! 👉 http://bit.ly/3ZXeYKd  ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEK DAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/   Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://twitter.com/scottmelker   Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.io   Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe   Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c   #Bitcoin #Crypto #MacroMonday The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

The Fed seems intent on breaking something, continuing to raise rates as inflation seemingly falls off a cliff. It's basically a 99% chance now, if you're looking at prediction markets, of a 0.25 BIP rate hike coming up this week on Wednesday. Why are they still raising rates if inflation is coming down? Do they know something that we don't? And what does this mean for Bitcoin if the economy breaks or the Fed actually breaks something, which seems to be their goal? I've got three amazing guests today, of course, Mike McGlow and Dave Weisberger, but we're also joined by Peter Cheer, one of our favorites to have join on Macro Mondays. You guys don't want to miss this one. Let's go. What is up, everybody? I'm Scott Melker, also known as the Wolf of Wall Street. Before we get started, please subscribe to the channel and hit the like button. I hope that all of you had an amazing weekend.

We were talking about our weekends before Dave Weisberger somehow managed to completely unplug and sit on a boat. I did not do that. I did play some golf this weekend, but largely was working on planning crypto town halls for the week. Very exciting.

Very exciting Sunday that I had yesterday doing work as usual, preparing for the week. And as I was doing that, obviously, we saw Bitcoin start to look a little bit iffy, right? And the topic here is really macro, of course. And what's going to happen is the Fed continues to hike rates, even as we're seeing inflation already falling off of a cliff. I think McGlone has made that case enough times to show us all the data that's happening there. And we will revisit that, of course. But then the next question becomes, what's going to happen to crypto if the market tops? As you know, guys, I kind of openly said two weeks ago that I was starting to sell quite a bit of stuff. I was selling meta that I had bought around 100, right around between 312, 313, 314.

It's currently 295. I'm not doing any victory laps, but it feels to me like the market is putting in the top here. But we can discuss it with our amazing guest today, Peter, Dave, and Mike. Mike, they're going to just keep doing it, right? Keep pushing. Yeah, that's the problem. Obviously, we're going to get 25 basis points today, and then we have every other central bank with the exception of China and Japan, all following the Fed. I do enjoy this narrative when people say the US is less significant, was economically, but I asked the central banks, it's more significant than ever. And they're just scrambling to keep up with the Fed.

And Brazil is a little bit ahead, but the macro is, bottom line is don't fight the Fed. And everybody does, and then beware of the general consensus, which is, oh, once the Fed stops tightening, everything's okay. But typically that happens after you get a decent downward correction in the stock market and we don't have a recession. Now, this is not happening yet, but I look at it as what you mentioned earlier. If you look at just producer price indices, the year over year measure, it's down 3.1% in the year. Now, that was quite expected, but Fed's never tightened in that environment and they are.

And they're watching sticky measures, which we all get, but remember those those sticky measures were all boosted by one thing, the biggest liquidity pump in history, that's dumping. So I look at markets now as, yes, all the technicians say, okay, now the stock market's up, what, 70-something percent from the bottom. It has to keep going higher. I remember for me to watch out for consensus like that. But I think what you suggest is sometimes you just have to be prudent. Now, we have basically had 100% rally in Bitcoin from way oversold. And one thing I did have a chance to do on my vacation is I always love to catch up on financial history and reading. It's just kind of my passion and potential I do it for a living. And I kind of wanted to push back in my view that we're going to not have a reset of a

lifetime and have actually accentuated. I think we're going to have the biggest reset of a lifetime, partly because what's happening with the narrative. And the key thing is crypto. So bottom line, I'll mention in macros, every major pump in history, every major technological revolution comes with a liquidity pump and that technology leads it. And this one has been in the back of cryptos. And that's been my theme is if I'm right on this scene that we're all going to tilt over to a pretty severe depression. Unfortunately,

I just have to point out if I see a hurricane come, I'm seeing it. It should be starting with cryptos. Now we're seeing more of that now. Bitcoin stopped around 30. It got a little bit above it. It just can't get above it despite the stock market still inching higher. And a key question I ask myself is, just imagine we get to normal Q4, Q3 later, while Chile in the stock market with the Fed still tightening and the tilt towards recession, which is not supposed to happen now. Just so we get a normal little pullback, what happens to these high beta, high velocity assets? And that's happening. So I'll end with this. On a one-year basis right now to July 24th, the S&P 500, gold, and the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index are all up about the same percent, 15%. The lowest volatility is gold. So that's

the best performer. When you do your measures, you do your value at risk, you're running hot money, which I've done with clients, you're going to overweight that gold. And the highest volatility is the crypto. So you're going to underweight that. And it's been your worst performer. So I look at it, okay, so what's the next year going to happen? The key thing that's dropped is the TLT. That's the bond ETF, the main one that's dropped about the same.

So I'll end with this. We just had our morning meeting. Ana Wong was typically pointing out normal things about the Fed, but our interest rate strategist, Ira Jersey, says he's looking for a bull steeple. And I agree with that, particularly as I've seen that we've had a collapse in commodities, a little bounce, and I think we're going to head back towards that trend. Back to you. Just showing TLT here. But Peter, listen, we haven't had you on here in quite a while. So maybe you can give us the broad strokes and respond to what Mike said.

If you're generally in agreement, if you're going to take the bull case, I don't really know where you stand. So maybe we can get a little controversy. I'm just kidding. I think I'm probably not quite as pessimistic on the economy, though. I do think we're going to see a lot of controversy i'm just kidding i think um i'm probably not quite as pessimistic on the economy though i do think we're going to see a series of weak job reports i think we're going to see some pressure that i've been looking at this much more as a local based recession it's not like a rolling recession but i think you're going to see areas like san fran are going to remain hard hit there's going to be pressure there in real estate

as you move away from there you're going to to see pockets of strength. I think that's one reason everyone's been so quote-unquote surprised by how well the home builders have done. Home builders have been doing well because they're being able to develop in Tennessee and the Carolinas, these places that people want to move. So I think there is a very regional tone to this economy. And I don't think a lot of that gets conveyed in the national data. So we tend to look at national data. I'm more and more looking at this as a very regional specific, certain areas are doing well, certain areas I think continue to struggle. So I'm probably into the mild recession camp, maybe no recession for parts of the country, maybe a deeper recession

for other parts. Commercial real estate is going to take time to play out. I do think there's problems there, but that's not necessarily a one month, two month. It's like a year, two, three year long thing. You go back to the great financial crisis, right? Merrill Lynch, I think, had to stop its dividend payment in March and the summer of 2007. Theemic didn't go until 2008 and the stock market's been bottom since 2009. So I think these things take time. Last week, I started really buying the equal weighted indices. So I want to be kind of either flat in that short risk,

but I want to own QQED, so that's the NASDAQ 100 equal weighted. You've got the S&P equal weighted. I even like NASDAQ. I wouldn't mind Russell 2000, but I probably slightly negative enough on the market. I don't really want to own that, but I probably slightly negative enough on the market. I don't really want to own that, but I want to own the laggards versus the big runners. We had the index rebalancing on Friday where they took down the weight of some of those big ones. That should drive money out of them and into the rest of the market. And if we're kind of right and you get the smaller slash rolling recession, I think it's actually going to be very good for all the laggards and people are going to chase that when i talked to

a lot of hedge fund clients i think they're already in that trade it hasn't worked but they're much more comfortable i think piling into the laggards than adding more of the quote unquote magnificent seven i would say the only thing on bitcoin that really struck me slightly odd is the lack of inquiry i've seen from people since it went from 20-something to 30. Normally, that's sort of a rally in a very short period of time. I'd be getting all sorts of questions from institutions, saying, what do you think? And it just feels there's a bit of a shrug your shoulders and, yeah, so what? Larry Fink faxed it. So what? Larry Fink faxed a lot of things that make money for Larry Fink. ETF. I feel like there was this

excitement within the Bitcoin community. Hey, we'll create an ETF. Look at this. Everyone can pile in. I think the rest of the world is just not as interested anywhere near what they were in the past. I think they might pile in if we get the BlackRock ETF to some degree. Peter, your mic is really, really

crackly. I don't know if you have any headphones or anything you can change there, but while we do that, I'm going to put you on mute and go over to Dave for your thoughts. And then there's a couple of specific things. I did show that graphic there if you guys saw it, of that NASDAQ rebalance, in case you guys didn't hear about that, what he was referring to. The NASDAQ 100 index, the underlying index for the world's fifth largest exchange-traded fund, ETF, that's QQQ, will undergo a special rebalance to address overconcentration of the index on July 24th,

which happens today. Go ahead, Dave. So I listen to Mike, and obviously we talk every week, and I am nervous about the high flyers in the stock market, for sure. They are tremendously overbought. They're at historically breaking ratios. We understand that the economy is what it is. Where I disagree, as we are now almost into August, is I think that first, I've said this multiple times, on the macro side, the Fed is managing the yield curve. They're calling for a steepening. I say no effing way because unless the government, if it does, then we are in deep, deep, deep shit. The government cannot afford a yield curve where we have 7% long rates, just cannot. We would have no discretionary spending left. And they know that,

we know that, everybody knows that, and they're going to do everything they damn well can to stop that. So it's a very interesting death spiral kind of issue. And if you say just don't see how they can, unless it's steepening for much lower base rates. I just don't see how they can afford the long rate to double, which is more or less what that would be calling for. So that's thing number one. Thing number two is lumping in the amount of recency bias in the notion that Bitcoin has to be correlated to equities is actually amusing. Because the fact is, is Bitcoin, and I know I say this every week, Scott, but I'm going to continue to say it, Bitcoin trades like an option on its own adoption. Bitcoin as sound money, demonetizing gold is the narrative that almost all the hodlers or holders, long-term believers in Bitcoin buy it based on. What we have seen is a drying up at the margin of speculation. You noticed, I think it was you

that tweeted this past weekend about how effectively the Bollinger Bands on Bitcoin are the lowest it's literally ever been. Titus's ever been on the weekly. That was from Josh. It was at Valkyrie, but yeah, Josh, Josh Olsowitz. Yeah. Well, okay. Well, I follow you more, I guess. Retweeted. No, you're correct.

I retweeted it. It's pretty old. I didn't, I didn't show it. The thing behind that in my macro estimation is that holders are continuing to accumulate slowly. They're not selling. Speculators are getting exhausted. Every single time it rallies on some FOMO news story,

the speculators are buying and then ultimately have to dump because the holders are like, I don't want to chase this market. I have no need to. We're going to stay here for a while. Until there is large buying that exceeds supply from mining, et cetera, long-term holders and accumulators aren't going to get more aggressive. And that's the situation you're in. Now, clearly, if a Bitcoin ETF is approved and it's BlackRock, that situation

changes. And now the supply-demand dynamic changes in the long run. That's the issue. So Bitcoin, yes, speculative liquidity has been sucked out of the market. Mike is 100% correct. That is why there is no overreaction. If we were in a different liquidity situation, i.e. the Fed did pivot, did cut rates, then yeah, Bitcoin probably would be back at the all-time highs in a blink. And the holders would be like, oh God, I guess I have to start buying here. But they're going to be much more patient than people seem to realize because you don't chase that. And I will continue to say that in the long run, that home stake mining during the decade of the 30s is the paradigm. While the stock markets went on a grinding down to a nub, home state mining did very well, or you could look at gold in the 70s and what happened as we got

into what happened there. And don't confuse this greatest decrease in liquidity ever to what Volcker did because that's a bunch of bullshit. Volcker went 6% real rates positive. I mean, 6% interest rates over the rate of inflation. And even if inflation collapses, there isn't 6% to do that for. So I think we need to understand that. And so my view is very cautious on the top equities. I like what Peter said in terms of trying to diversify. If you believe that we have a market that's climbing a wall of worry, then that makes a hell of a lot of sense. But I do think that the terms of the regulatory structure and people who are expecting that to be a quick burn. No, those things take enormous amounts of time. But I think it's important to to to to delink those two. And I think that that is upon us as we as we turn into an election year.

Yeah, I mean, climbing the wall of worry is one thing. I just feel like we climbed to the wall of worry. Yeah, no wonder not market, I think that's right. But I- If you're under 10% off the highs after a bear market, that narrative just, I'm not saying I disagree. I'm just saying I think that narrative, it's like- No, no, I am not bullish on the stock market or on risk assets at large. I just think that Bitcoin was created during the global financial crisis. There's absolutely no reason to think that it can't rally in the next financial crisis because I, like Peter, think that the powers that be have their power bases

in the big cities that are absolutely going to have real estate and other things get crushed. I mean, San Francisco doesn't come back until the electorate changes what they vote for. Literally, it has zero probability of coming back. It is literally an Ayn Randian, you know, like out of the Atlas Shrugged death spiral. No human being who can't afford... That's why they're all moving to Montana. They're running to Galts Galts in Montana. No sane human being who can't afford private security wants to be there.

I would either die or go ahead, Mike. You sound better. Well, one of my favorite books, by the way, I think Peter and I have the better hair, but that's okay. We'll talk about that later. One of my favorite books, I'm glad you mentioned Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrug. I remember listening to on one of my road trips. I've gone back to the Midwest for, I don't know, the last 30 years, a couple times a year. And that's the way I feel China is right now.

Very similar to the way Ayn Rand kind of described what she was doing from the old Soviet Union. I view China, and this is most of my research, is very similar to peak Japan and peak Soviet Union about three decades ago. And that matters partly because what you're hearing out of them and potentially trying to relax some rules in Hong Kong and everything, it's watch, be careful what they say, watch what they do. They're trying to cut rates. The whole commodity market's dependent on them to add stimulus. And yeah, they might be able to cut rates. That's easy.

But everything else means it has to go through Politburo. Actually, it doesn't matter. It's only what Mr. Z says. But the key things that I think Peter and Dave mentioned, I want to address on, we've had the purchasing managers indices come out of Europe again, following the trend of weaker than expected. And in that same environment, we expect more hiking from the central banks in Europe. That's an oxymoron historically. In the meantime, I mentioned producer price index is collapsing at the price of the highest point in history. And the Fed is still tightening. Those are the oxymorons I think we're going to look back on.

And people like us write the textbooks. I'm hoping to write. Yeah, that was silly. But it's just when you're in the middle of it, you don't realize it. But that's where I want to also. Dave and I agree on so much. and this is not a pushback. I agree on the big picture, macro. We get that.

It's just such a no, no. Now I look at it, it's like, hey, show me the beef. And that's the big problem is, yes, we all knew Bitcoin was too darn cheap at $15,000. But at $30,000, this massive spike, yes, it should continue outperforming the broad macro and broad crypto market. But we still have this massive speculation in that space. And that's the problem. Show me the beef. Show me the Bitcoin. I need to see it from markets. I always like to say, let markets prove that Bitcoin is going to start outperforming gold and outperforming the stock market on a relative risk-adjust adjusted basis, particularly if and or when we get a Fed tilt towards ease. And that's the way that our strategists are looking for that steepener, Dave. And to explain that to some of our people who

might not understand that is that means when long bond rates, when short rates drop faster than long bond rates, that's market, curves, re-steepens. Right now, it's the most inverted in 40 years. So those rules are still prevailing. I look at it as this is the silly stage. I view this as we've all been through silly stages and they can last for years, typically it's months. And I see this as a silly stage in terms of the equity market. Yes, I'm very bearish equity market, but it's also, I sense the similar bullishness in the equity market that I sensed in Bitcoin when it was at 31,000 just a few months or two ago. And everybody said I was an idiot for being, you got that. I mean, oh, don't you want to be rich? I remember hearing those quotes and just

those little tweaks you get sometimes from people who you realize like, yeah, I probably want to do the opposite you're doing. Yeah. And Mike, the chart can die. And I've listened, I'm a Bitcoin bull, obviously, but if you're from a technical perspective, the chart for the last few months could not look toppier. And that's a listen. So then the discussion becomes there's a dip coming. Is it the dip you want to buy or do you want to stay out of the market? But I mean, I mean, objectively, like this is a weekly chart, four candles in a row, completely rejected and wicking above 31,000. There's a ton of liquidity up there and a ton of selling interest. One statement, and then we'll move over to Peter. And that is,

this has been an everything rally. Bitcoin and cryptos are just part of it. What happens when that everything rally fades? That's the bottom line is if you're in cryptos, you've done great this year. If you're in gold, you've done okay. If you're in commodities, that's right. If you're in stocks, you've done well. It's all together. It makes sense after that big plush last year. It's the next 12 months that matter. The bottom line is the Federal Reserve is still tightening. We have nowhere near early days of that kicking in. Here's one thing I love hearing how home builders are doing great because the housing market is seized up because people won't sell because interest rates are high. Give that a year or maybe six months.

What does history prove for these type of environments? When markets seize up, it's never been good. Go ahead, Peter. Yeah, I would just say on the home builders too. Again, I think the home builder stocks are very different than the housing market as a whole. They are in the business of making homes. I used to trade the high-yield home builders, talk to Toll, DHO. The one thing they always spoke, and this goes back to the early 2000s, is when people

move to newer areas, home builders can make a lot of money because they can buy property relatively cheap. They put up a house and they can charge a premium because people are in good locations. So that's really helped in this trend, right? As people move away from San Fran, Chicago, New York, where home builders actually have trouble making money because the property that people want is very expensive. So they've had this shift. So I'm not as optimistic about the housing market as a whole. I think there's going to be pressure on that. I just think that people are misinterpreting a little bit this success of

the home builders who run a business of building homes to sell to people versus the housing market as a whole. And I think you're going to see cracks in that. I do think people are trying to figure out ways to pass their mortgage along. The one thing I'll push back on, maybe not push back on, Mike, I agree. China seems to be at this inflection point. And the one thing that I see, and this I don't think is priced in at all, and I think is a big risk to us, and what we've been calling it is this shift from made in China to made by China. And if you think about the last 20 some odd years, we took our goods, we had China make our goods, and then we sold our goods collectively globally, right? And I think what you're going to start seeing is more and more Chinese companies attempting to sell their goods and competing with us. Huawei was probably one of their most successful things,

but you look recently, right? BYD, their EV manufacturer, is setting up a factory in Brazil. The China, I can't remember the name of it, it's a very boring name, but the Chinese aircraft maker, they threw their maiden voyage about two months ago. They sucked Boeing into building factories

and things into China on the optimism being able to sell into China. China was the last major airspace to allow the Supermax to fly. So they didn't even give Boeing really the reach around. And sure, I do not want to step on a Chinese-made airplane anytime soon, but eventually they're going to make people fly in China. Then they're going to go to other third world or emerging markets countries in those planes, and then they're going to offer deals. So I think what we potentially aren't seeing enough of or fear of is that these Chinese companies who make products that are maybe 60, 70% as good as ours, but sell at 30% of the price,

making inroads, particularly to emerging markets countries. Peter, sorry. Peter, you just went fully robot for us. Dave, I saw your face, so I know that it happened as well. Test it again. Yeah, you sound like a robot. That was crazy. That was a next level voice change. You sounded like Mr. Robot,

like you were coming in and trying to remain anonymous. So give it another click and we'll try to figure that out. Hey, I don't know if you guys saw this actually, a story that, and Mike, I don't know, maybe this will, you'll have a take and you'll tell me that it's a tree in the forest and blah, blah, blah. But I heard about this on Spaces this morning that India, did you see this? India has imposed a major rice export ban triggering inflation fears, an indefinite ban, and they are 40% of the export market of rice to the world. Yeah. I heard that and I was updating my commodity stuff because I'm supposed to write about my

outlook for commodities and agriculture. And that's very seasonal weather related. And I don't want to call it a minor, but what happens, it's typically what happens that you have resource nationalism with agriculture exports. The key thing to point out is we all US-based right now, the US is the world's largest agriculture exporter and a net energy exporter. This is something that's really changed in the last 10, 20 years when people talk about these bullish commodity people. I like to point out every time is you're really missing what the Malthusians got wrong 200 years ago. So that's a short term thing. I don't know exactly why it's happening in rice.

But let's talk about the most significant agriculture crop in the world is corn. And from a dollar value of cost of production and everything. And the world's largest producer is the U.S. And there's a massive surplus. It's probably going to be the biggest crop ever this year. And here's just one little fact for those who are investors. It's something I've never seen. We have high prices and massive supply in the U.S. The reason we have high prices is because we had a little bit of fear of drought in the U.S., but now it's because

Mr. Putin, I wouldn't say Russia, because there's one person making decisions in Russia and China right now, two people, Mr. Putin and Mr. Xi. We have to give the people credit and point out what's happening in autocratic environments. So I see that rice exports part of that blip in a significant deflationary environment in food from a wholesale standpoint. I'll point out the price of corn right now, first traded maybe 10 years ago. It's high. And what I see from farmers and corn belt people is they're going to have a massive supply and they're going to have what we call grain piles. No place to put it.

No place, nothing to do with it. We just have to create more ethanol out of it. That makes sense. Peter, let's give you a test real quick. Is this working finally? Oh, yes. Don't worry about it, Mr. Arbato. You're good now. You're going to have to do the playback,

Peter, and see what you sounded like. It was awesome. Maybe you're not supposed to ever talk bad about china that's right they uh they they were listening and they they tried to drop by the way every person i've ever known who's bought one of those chinese not-bop vespas has had a breakdown within like two weeks so i definitely don't want to get on the china plane to your point so okay so we were just talking about, Peter, while you were gone, I just mentioned the, I guess we'll call it an export ban of rice

in India. So we kind of pivoted, but Mike was giving me the top off the cliff as usual, saying not a big deal. It's seasonal. Don't worry about it. So I'm not trying to send everybody in a toilet paper run COVID style to the grocery store to buy more rice.

But Peter, do you think that we could be seeing a market at least topping here from this run? I mean, we were talking about climbing the wall of worry. I kind of made the point that maybe we climbed the wall of worry before. The same argument Mike, I think, is making for Bitcoin to some degree is we had that move, right? We had the BlackRock move right after we had sort of the SVB move. We had these catalysts that pushed it up, but what's going to do it next? What's going to keep stops going up if the Fed's going to continue tightening? And we know that it's based on a few names that people have piled into. I've been bearish for the last month or so, and obviously it's been wrong as we kind of continue to have this climb. So I keep trying

to test, okay, what did I get wrong on this? And the questions that keep coming up to me are, okay, are the wealthy making so much money in their savings accounts and through their interest-bearing funds that they're just plowing this money into stocks? Is there just more money coming into the stock market than we can deal with? Are people still too underweight? I think people haven't wanted to chase this. I think hedge funds have been underweight. A lot of asset managers too have been really stuck because these indices became so concentrated that they can't even own legally, in some cases, the percentage that Apple, Microsoft got to in these indices. They are maintaining diversification. They're not supposed to hold more than 5%. So there's been a lot of

weird dynamics. And then the thing that probably scares me most about being bearish, and again, at best, I'm kind of neutral. I like these equal weighted. I like the laggers. The thing that scares me most is just that what happens if people decide a small recession is okay because the Fed's going to cut rates? And I think that would be a dumb reaction because I think the recession should overwhelm anything the Fed can or will do. But will that propel us further? So to me, it's more on this. We keep going higher if we do because of the squeeze type fee.

That's the only thing that to me makes sense. So I'm more comfortable with kind of the laggers, the equal weighted type stuff and neutral the slightly various the market. But I am worried that this is just a trend and there's just more money piling in because I completely don't agree with the view that consumers benefit from this higher interest rate. I really believe though the rich benefit from this higher interest rate, it creates more disposable, investable income. Yeah, Dave, I want to go to you to response to that. What do you think? I do want to make a point. It's interesting, and Mike kind of hints at this, but this has been the longest priced-in

recession in the history of priced-in recessions, but it feels like now people assume it's not going to happen just because it hasn't happened. That doesn't mean it's not. So I don't understand. I have a very bimodal response to this. I am hearing, I'm feeling echoes

of 2000 where people who were there remember in March of 2000 there was this massive 14% it felt massive, but 14% correction on the NASDAQ in a day and

the destruction of most of the internet bubble stocks started, and people thought that was it. There was a shadow rally back to three quarters of the way up to the all-time high by August, and people were like, oh, we're safe. Everything is great. And then the grinding death rally of the small ones,

which were bullshit, never stopped from that point on. And it bottomed whenever the hell it bottomed, where post 9-11 in 2001, with Amazon at like nine bucks down, 90 some odd percent in the big cap ones that had real things down. I will always remember living, and that was literally what you just said.

That was, well, we thought this was going to follow through to nowhere, but look, it's rallying in the face of it. So it must be okay. And that becomes a self-reinforcing feedback loop to the upside, except the smart money sitting on the sidelines saying, so I think there are lots of assets that have gotten overpriced. And I think that people are waiting for the next bull narrative to take place, which they believe to be AI, which I think is- Bubble. I mean, to call- I hate the word bubble because we overuse it. Yeah, it's the only word we use.

There will be a massive, massive change to the global economy. And in many companies' cases, it's going to be wildly negative, right? I mean, outsourcing companies, employment companies, companies that produce content, written content, call centers, so many things are going to be bad, but most things will be improved. But it's not, I mean, literally not going to be this broad-based technologically led rally that everything can get better. It never is that way. I mean, that Goldilocks has never occurred. People talk about it, but it never actually happened. But put that to the side. I think that there are some narratives

in the market that are very important. And I will continue to say this. I do think that the biggest single beneficiary of AI, I'm with Arthur Hayes, is going to be Bitcoin. Why? Because it is undeniably true that as artificial intelligence computers start to gain more autonomy, I'm not talking self-aware like Skynet. I'm talking about people try building this stuff. There is a need for digitalization of money. And that narrative is the one that I believe will drive Bitcoin to demonetize gold. When I say demonetize, that doesn't mean devalue, that means demonetize. That means start to take over some of our percentage, eventually replace a lot of the market cap that gold has that is attributable solely to money. When gold demonetized silver, silver didn't go to zero.

It's still five times where it was before gold started rallying. It just didn't rally nearly as much. And that's why I was trying to show on the chart of number of addresses with zero balance, Bitcoin hash rate, every single fundamental that you look at in the Bitcoin market is wildly bullish. Huge divergences. Yet technically, it looks like crap. And I think a lot of people, to be blunt, are waiting to see what happens when the DOJ and Interpol or whoever go after Binance and whether or not Tether goes down and people have to invent a new way to invest in Bitcoin because the rails of getting money and turning it into Bitcoin go away. And I think that is the narrative that's keeping a lot of long-term players from doing anything in Bitcoin, and that's the shoe to drop.

And so there's a lot of that. And I think that's why the technicals picture in the face of news, such as the ETF and the obvious conversion of a growing number of opinion leaders in this country towards supporting digital assets. That is wildly bullish, not for cryptos writ large. It is wildly bullish for cryptos with a use case and for Bitcoin. And the fact that Larry Fink makes the exact same distinction that I've been making on this show for two years makes me happy because it means it's becoming mainstream, i.e. that there's the Bitcoin use case and there is another use case which will eventually be tokenization of assets. Both will drive crypto. And those two things are definitely different than what's going on in the macro economy. And so I do draw a distinction. I do agree with you.

Technically, I don't think until we get resolution on the Binance case, I don't see anyone stepping up major to make major asset allocation. Or until we actually get an ETF approval. See, I'm listening to everything you're saying and I a hundred percent agree, but I think we had the move from all this news. Oh, I agree. And it's going to be squishy until then. And it's going to be squishy. Is it going to be catastrophic? don't know i mean look at the stock market correct i don't think that jaycoin is going to go down 2025 maybe 30 who knows but that's assuming that a major that we have a major crash uh which we could have it could easily

happen i've said it before this fall is a period fraught with danger on the macro side on that mike and i agree is it necessarily going to happen? Honestly, the signal will be long rates creeping up. And so there, once again, we agree, if this is a great computer thing, if that helps, if long rates are creeping up and we start steepening even slightly, yo yeah, I think that the stock market has to do it. Yeah. If AI is the consensus reason for this rally, then I'm becoming more bearish than even before, to be quite frank. And listen, that doesn't mean, like you said, I believe AI will be massively impactful. I think it's the narrative of the future. I think it's the technology of the future. But, you know, Pets.com and NetTaxi, right? We talk about this all the time.

We don't need the entire market to go up on AI. There'll be a few winners after that bubble pops. And if that's what's carrying us, that really scares me. I would also push back even on the notion that it's necessarily good for Bitcoin because my inner skeptic tells me that the currency of AI would be stable coins. And it

wouldn't be Bitcoin at all. If Tether doesn't get cracked out on it, I think it will be, it'll literally end up being Tron, USDT on Tron because it's faster and cheaper, right? But I'm concerned that if the reason that this is, that we've climbed this wall of worry is this AI narrative, which a lot of people seem to point to, I think that's going to be over soon too. Mike, go ahead. Peter, I see you're about to comment. Yeah, I think market structure plays a big part of this. I think there is very little liquidity in almost any market. I trade corporate credits much more, so you watch that. The depth of liquidity is very, quite frankly, abysmal, right? It doesn't take much to move it. And I think you see the same thing even in equities, where I talk to people, the amount of shares it takes to move Tesla is tiny compared to what it was even two or three years ago. So the algo-driven, the ETF-driven,

every trade be getting more and more trades as everyone's kind of scraping out a little bit of money versus the ETF versus the underlying share, trying to front run each other, got oiled. So I think this correlation is a bit scary. And I do think in general, that tends to provide these slow uphill grinds with very, very fast and sharp declines. Because at some point, everyone's always willing to buy something or sorry, sell something. But there's often periods where no one's willing to buy anything. So I think we're very susceptible if we get a pullback, it will be very sharp, very ugly. It won't take months. It will probably be days or weeks.

I'm laughing because anybody who's traded the crypto market knows exactly what you're describing. It's basically because of the lack of liquidity or the high leverage, you're now saying that stocks are going to trade like that, escalator up, elevator down, right? It's literally out. And it's a lot the last few years. It's behaving more and more like that. It's scary that the bond market behaves like that. So to me, I don't know if you've ever seen one of my favorite things is this machine learning pendulum, right? So it's got a triple pendulum and this machine kind of manages to get the whole thing to stay up straight, which no human can take that. But when it breaks, there's only one way it goes. It goes all the way down and you can swing it all

back up. And I feel that that's the sort of market structure we've created where this full liquidity, right? It feels very liquid and at any price point, oh yeah, it's super liquid, but you get these gaps. And I think it's much easier to gap significantly down than high. Part of the reason though, I think it's been very much to just a few stocks have gained this because you play the options market, you play the zero-day expiration options. These all feed into each other. And I think the unwind will be fairly quick. Timing it's- I think in the- Go ahead. Go ahead. Sorry.

I think timing it's going to be incredibly hard, but that's what I'm starting to look for is what will trigger a very sharp decline. And a lot of people say August is generally you follow the trend, but I think we've had prior times in August where something happens out of China or wherever, and you get these very steep 5%, 7%, 8% declines often overnight. And I think you almost have to start prepping your portfolio for that sort of a trade. So I think that's the key thing is you always have to be on the lookout for potential catalysts or triggers. And I think based on the last few things we all said here is that I always go back to this quote from Benjamin Disraeli, former UK prime minister, what we anticipate seldom

occurs, what we least expect generally happens. Now that's really the case in markets, and it was clearly the case in commodities last year. I mean, I was the idiot who said, no, they always go back down if they go up. That was just not profound. And to me, it's also what Peter said about the pendulum. It's a pendulum and always swings in markets. It's just a question of how far and when. And to me, that is the key thing is everything has swung up this year. And one word is, we all don't like the word bubbles. I'm also very fearful of the word crash. I'm not calling for a crash in equities. I'm just pointing out the typical underperformance

period after a typical outperformance period on the back of liquidity. That's always the way cycles work. It's just a question of when and catalysts. And I think one key kind of catalyst, you always can't predict them, but you can try to figure out what might happen. I'm worried about what's happening, but we should all be worried about what's happening in Russia, what they did lately with bombing some of the grain exports is something potentially going nuclear.

Now, that's not Russia again. It's one person who's backed into a corner. So don't want to trade for that, but it's something. And it's also, what is the market stance if you get a catalyst? Now, if the stock market's relatively cheap and bond markets are relatively cheap and you get a catalyst to make them go cheaper, they usually don't move a lot. But if they're relatively expensive on this specific opium, that markets will go up because it went up, which is where I think we are right now. One little catalyst is what it takes. Remember, we all remember 9-11. It was just, it came as we started tilting lower and it just accelerated that bear market. Now that was very unusual.

So, but here we do have a hot war in Europe. We have major negative people had the bounce in economic growth in Europe. And now it's all tilting back lower and they're still tightening. And then we have crypto in the middle. And crypto is basically underperforming risk-adjusted basis this year. So what does it happen next year? Maybe Bitcoin starts trading more like gold. I'm more biased towards gold and long bonds, to be honest with you, if this continues to work out with the Fed tightening into a deflationary environment.

I mean, I think it's interesting. You're right about the grain stuff, but if we have a surplus of grain in the United States enough to, that seems to be, I mean, it's almost, there's certain, those cross currents are kind of canceling each other, which is kind of interesting. But look, the simple fact is, Scott, I think we all are saying that there are macro risks. We all are going into August, summer squishiness is fairly typical and wouldn't surprise any of us. And so the real question is, are correlations that are very recent or, and obviously, by the way, the correlation in Bitcoin is way lower, but do we expect an event where correlations all go to one because it's a mass sell-off or not? If it's gradual or if it's a reconditioning rotation, then let's say Peter's

right and there's a rotation out of the things that have done really well into things which have done less well. And it's basically just a repricing of the market, you know, towards these ridiculous multiples and people think this is a new normal. I'm kind of with Mike. I mean, I just don't think that I never believe anyone says a new normal, you know, Japan was like that. I mean that people I'll never forget this because once again, being old, I was there, you know, I was installing trading systems in,

in Tokyo in the late 80s, actually not even that late in the 80s. And there, when the market peaked and started to fall, on every single bounce, it was like, oh, okay, well, we're fine. But the reality was, it was literally, and it went on for a decade, right? It was every bounce. Some of those bounces are pretty significant. They had this custom there where if you actually visited the Tokyo Stock Exchange and the market was up, people would stand around and clap. And it was funny. And then the people who were running the head of index ARB and futures trading at Morgan Stanley and Salomon Brothers, I was at Morgan Stanley in the early, early 90s, and I spent a lot of time there. When the market started to fall over and they were trading a lot,

they were starting to get death threats. It's like, I'll never forget what was going on there, because there you had an entire generation of people who believed in a new normal. They believed that Japanese stocks should trade at PEs that were triple the rest of the world. Well, guess what? That didn't work out. And I don't think that assets that are based upon future cash flows, which ultimately all equities are, will ever go beyond what those future cash flows are likely to deliver. They can in the short run, and they always. I mean, you know, Nvidia being the one that we make fun of now, although it's a great company, but could it ever live up to this multiple? I don't think so. Can the market stay irrational longer than I can remain solvent if I'm recording it? Yes, which is why I don't.

I'm actually not trading anymore anyway, but the reality is that you need to understand that there are assets that are based upon future cash flows and assets that are not. And let's look at, when I talk about crypto, Bitcoin is not based upon a future cash flow. It is based upon adoption as a store of value. Whereas ultimately, most of the rest of crypto is based upon, if not cash flows per se, because they're not a share of revenue, at least the amount of usage that would drive the volume, which is the cash flow of the companies using those protocols. And so, yes, there is a difference. I mean, if I were to make a strong bet, it would be that Bitcoin, if there was a ratio of Bitcoin to all the other crypto assets, not stable coins and not Ethereum,

which has its own network effect. So all the non-network effect assets writ large, and there was a Bitcoin ratio to that, that that's going to go to an all-time high. And I don't think we're even close to that all-time high right now. But that is my strongest bet. And maybe at a lower level, and maybe the Bitcoin just falls left than the others if we have a catastrophic depressionary sell-off. But I think that that's important and you need to de-link it that way. Well, I'd say, I think that's important

to bring that up. I'm glad you did. The Nikkei 225 peaked around 40,000 in 1990 and it's 32 now. And I remember being at the Bitcoin conference and people say, no, the Nikkei's breaking out. You got to be long in cryptos. I'm like, no, it's, yeah, it's making another bounce. And every time it does, it corrects back down. You look at the Shanghai Shenzhen 300 index, it peaked around 6,000

in 2007 and it's around 3,800 right now. And that was completely supported by the Chinese government. I went back and reviewed the things that you said, how it, you know, just like every example in history where you would criminalize short selling and you made it the state's desire to go higher. You even have Japanese government buying Nikkei. This is what can happen in equity markets. And the U.S. is not immune to this. This is what I'm worried about.

Yes, when you make a lifetime call like this, you have to take risks, but I see the hurricane and I sure hope we're okay. But then I look over that US government to your note, give me 4% or 5%, mean 10% in two years. Thank you very much. Yes, you underperformed this year, but you're sure relaxing. Go ahead, Peter. Yeah. I think the one thing I spend, when I look and think about bubbles, and I have a slightly maybe strange view, but bubbles only happen in safe assets. So we can spend all our time worrying about Nvidia or other things. But historically, anytime that we had a

crisis in the US, it was led by safe assets going bad. So the SNL crisis, they just had trouble managing their interest rate exposure. We went down. Then you basically have Russia, long-term capital. Long-term capital had all these esoteric bets that went wrong. Russia, no one thought a sovereign could default. 2001 to me was really, part of it was you had fraud in the investment grade space. All of a sudden you had WorldCom, you had Enron, these companies that people thought they understood had these investment grade ratings went wrong. And to me, the great financial crisis is all about the AAA mortgage-backed securities. So I'm always trying to figure out what in the quote unquote safe space is wrong and trying to look at what has not gone wrong in the past. So everyone wants to talk about high

yield leverage loans. People invest in those kind of understanding that there's some degree of risk. Yeah. So to me, the commercial real estate still triggers those risks to me because one, they're owned by everyone. They're owned by banks. There's leverage in that, right? So those quote unquote safe assets attract leverage. Commercial real estate somehow avoided the whole 2008 real estate problem, right? So it kind of drove banks and institutions into that.

So I think it's a problem that is lurking out there is commercial real estate as one of those things that's big enough to drag down the entire system because of how it's held, the amount of leverage, the fact that people viewed it as very safe. I don't think we're there yet. I think there's going to be restructuring again, like you've all mentioned, right? These things never go straight line and are done in a short period of time. It takes time to play out. And we've had this recovery from Silicon Valley Bank and all those. And really, that's one chart that's almost amazing. Look, when the banking crisis started is when we started getting this big divergence between the Magnificent Seven and everyone else, right? It's almost like people are like, oh, I'm just going to throw money into these, quote unquote, safe. I don't feel that we're

quite at the point where everyone views tech stocks as safe like we were with ARKK. People were using ARKK as a piggy bank and Apple was even better than T-bills. We're not back to that, but I do sense that sort of mentality. I think those are the things that make it right for these sharp pullbacks. Not there, but I think the fact that I bought commercial real estate back in April and May and I've been winding down that portfolio, But I think every single bank within two days had a hot button, hour long webinar on how bad commercial real estate was. Okay. That was a pretty obvious, almost near term bottom, like when CNBC does their crazy specials. But those problems are still real and working out there. And I think it's going

to be that sort of thing too, that all of a sudden later this year, early next year, people realize, oh man, we completely forgot about this. Why? So then Peter, you said soft landing. So is it soft landing and then a crash later? It's actually, but that is the thing. I mean, look, the Fed is well aware of that. I mean, when there was an issue with bonds and an issue, when billion, hundreds of billions of dollars of losses on the balance sheets of banks due to the fact that banks had all bought a ton of long bonds at 2% came up, what did the Fed do? They didn't pull out a gun. They didn't pull out, you know, they didn't even pull out a bazooka. I'm not even sure it was, you know, this it was. This was like an entire battalion of tanks.

They pulled out a $4 trillion BTFB backstop facility to say, banks collateral is good. Here's $4 trillion. What do you want to do? They shoved their chips in and told people, I dare you to short banks on the basis of this. And what happened? It was fine. There is not even a slight chance that if the commercial real estate goes bad, they won't extend that program to back up banks' commercial real estate so that there aren't runs on the banks. They're going to do what needs to be done to protect the banking system, period. The Fed put in equities is gone. They've made that exceedingly clear.

The Fed put on the integrity of the banking system is absolutely alive and well. And so in people, it amazes me that that's even a discussion. I mean, I can't believe Mike or Peter disagree with that. I think you all understand that. But that matters. That doesn't mean fringe banks can't have problems. That doesn't mean it can't be a tax or slowdown on the economy. It can, but they're not going to allow a wave of bank defaults based on commercial real estate.

There's no way. I think that's a good point. And also, I'm glad you brought that out, David. I was hoping you'd tilt towards that. That is the key thing. It's maybe some of a personal view, but my sense from watching the Fed since the eighties being a Fed watcher is they want the stock market to go down and they're making it go down by tightening rates and it's not going down. What does that mean? They keep tightening rates. I look at that as that's the biggest issue and

going to be the biggest issue for our whole entire future. And I really appreciate what you said, Peter, but you get that sense sometimes, okay, everything was so bad in commercial real estate and you were smart enough to buy it. Thank you. Now you're lightening up a little bit, but that's the thing where right now, right now, Bitcoin's at about 29,000. It's dropped 3% on just one day, not including from Friday and just this morning. And so we know we've cut in a pretty good short-term top on all this hopium for the ETF. And the key question I ask now is, okay, what stops the correction? Now, big picture, long-term, absolutely, very bullish Bitcoin. Big picture, long-term, I think the stock market's going down. It doesn't mean it can't make a new

high. That's the key thing about Bitcoin. It doesn't mean it can't take out that 15,000 low. The key question I ask now is, as we get to this point of year, which I think we have to look forward to, is the Fed's probably going to be right. They're probably going to get what they want, stock market to go down, and what happens when the whole tide goes out. That's my base case. And right now I still stick with it.

I've been early and wrong, but that's why the key bottom line is if I'm right on this macro, Bitcoin and crypto, mostly crypto, should be the leaders. They led on the way up. And right now they're leading on the way down. So let's say next time we speak and the stock markets drop, we'll know why. Bitcoin's a leader. Mike, you've said a few times,

and I just want to push back slightly. You've said that on a risk-adjusted basis, Bitcoin has underperformed the market, but Bitcoin opened the year at 17,000. Right. So it's up. It's risk adjusted. It's basically double the volatility of the NASDAQ. And that used to be 10 times the volatility. So that's the point where Bitcoin's going. So it should be up more, even though it's up more than the market, the ratio-wise, it should have tripled or quadrupled instead of doubled. Right. When you look at it, well, it depends also. It's also subjective. You look at since the end of Q1, end of March, it's basically flat

and NASDAQ's up almost 20%. So there's that rolling over. And a good reason for it to go, well, we're getting ETS and that's failed. But it's not so much just, okay, that's Bitcoin, but what about the broad market? And that's why I get all the time, I'm long this coin, I never heard of. And what do you think, Mike? I'm like, what does it do? And there's 26,000 competitors, good luck. That's what we still need to flush out in this system, you think, Mike? I'm like, what does it do? And there's 26,000 competitors. Good luck. That's what we still need to flush out in this system, I think, because that whole space is indicative of the massive liquidity that helped pump the inflation that's just starting to dump. And the Fed, bottom line is don't fight the Fed. Fed's still tightening. So you're not buying Pepe, McPepe, Pepe, you knew Pepe, Doge, Mars, Elon X, X, Pepe, Doge,

Mars. Yeah. Well, I'm impressed with people who have the mental capacity to follow those kind of things versus having something in life that might be beneficial for themselves and for humankind. But I'm just, I'm incapable. Peter, you look like you're dying to say something. No, I agree. I don't understand all those kind of weird ones that are out there. They make no sense. One thing, I kind of view it as a good indicator of speculation still there because it's almost like, well, I can either buy 0.1 Bitcoin with my $1,500 or whatever, or I can buy 1,000 of this coin for 2 cents. So I'm going to buy this because if that goes to $5, I've all of a sudden made this. And that's the sort of math that drives those ones. And the reality is you buy it at $0.02, it's probably going to zero. So why bother?

Whatever the number is. But that's what I see is people want to own all sorts of shares and there's petty stock, same idea. I mean, the funniest part about this is it is literally exactly the same mentality that happened in 1999 and early 2000. And in those days, yes, everyone focuses on what the NASDAQ did and Cisco, Amazon, and blah, blah, blah. But what people forget is there's this, and regulators forget and commentators forget, and this is why I absolutely loathe the rhetoric that comes out of our current SEC chair. People forget that there was easily as much fraud manipulation and bullshit in the OTC stock market in that era as there is in crypto today. Easily as much.

They were all securities. They all traded on the pink sheets, the bullies, et cetera. Now, Kravl Kulsa with OTC Markets has done a lot to clean up that by creating tiers on his platform because they have people who don't know how those things trade. And he's done a lot of that. But the truth is there's still a vast underbelly of 14,000 securities that trade. And these are the ones that the Wolf of Wall Street was about.

These are the ones that Oil Room was about. They make movies about this stuff. And this is literally the same crap going on in crypto. And it is true. When the wolf of wall street stuff was going crazy that the big market was doing well and it was siphoning some marginal wealth away the difference is and here is the difference the difference is is the cryptos that are in this sort of pepe world are global so there's a lot more people to scam and it's uh and there's more it's easier for people to get into it they do their own research on the web etc they don't have to have some shady salesman calling them telling them they're going to get rich so yeah it's probably gone farther and faster than it might have otherwise been but it's important to know we've seen this before and ultimately what happens

all of those things uh that are that don't have enduring value fall. And when I say fall, I don't mean fall. I mean fall to zero. And so we'll see. And that's the difference. Now, I'm not saying that frog images versus punk images versus ape images are going to be to zero. Who knows? It could be, I always use the words before, Beanie Baby or Birkin Bag. And unfortunately, Jane Birkin passed away recently. But the fact is, Birkin bags are the same $30 of leather, $20 of leather that bags that go for a hundredth of the price are. And it's like sometimes things work and sometimes they don't. And I have no conclusion. I'm not an artist.

You triggered one thing for me. I want to go back to that period of time. Remember all the fiber companies, right? Everyone was laying fiber. We needed fiber. You had Colt Telecom, Global Crossing. Corning was doing phenomenally well. They almost all either went bankrupt or were on the verge of bankruptcy because the overbuilding was insane. And now a lot of those companies who ever got involved post-bankruptcy in the restructuring did phenomenally well. But I think you see some of these same elements with AI, right? People get way ahead of themselves and don't understand how much money is being spent,

how are these companies structured. And ultimately, now you go back to some of those fiber companies, they're probably all going to be non-existent in the future because everything's moved to Wi-Fi and stuff. So I think this AI story is really interesting. I suspect that the big winners have yet to be found and that there's an evaluation process as well. NVIDIA won't be the only one forever. And that's why I would just be sort of bearish on NVIDIA personally. I can tell you anecdotally that there was a good six-week period where

my entire Twitter timeline was annoying threads on how to use AI. Sign up for my newsletter, join my thing. Here's 10 tips on how to prompt it. None of that. It's already gone. I'm already seeing that that's stopping. So it feels like it's kind of grinding to a halt. Wow, I just realized it's 10.02, guys. The moral of the story, everyone, buy your wife a Birkin bag, if you're listening. That's what's next, man. They're really cheap. In case you're wondering. Yeah, so Dave has now compelled all of us whose four wives maybe were listening

that we have to buy Birkin bags because they're a great store of value. Guys, this is amazing. Obviously, heading over to Twitter space is in about 13 minutes. So see everyone over there. And, of course, see you on the next one. I'm glad we got through the technical troubles today. Great conversation as always. Really my favorite day of the week. Peter, thank you so much for

joining our aggressive threesome over here. We can get pretty opinionated. Glad to have you here threading the needle. It was fun. Thanks again. Thanks buddy. Bye guys. Let's go. threading the needle and it's fun thanks again thanks buddy bye guys