The Wolf Of All Streets - The Interest Rate Cut Is Coming - Will It Boost Bitcoin? | Macro Monday

Episode Date: September 3, 2024

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Interest rate cuts are almost certainly coming this month. Now the question is whether it will be 25 bps or 50 bps, and more importantly, what that will mean for markets and for Bitcoin. Luckily, I have the best in the business, Mike McGlone, James Lavish, and Dave Weisberger here to unpack that and everything happening in markets. It's Macro Monday on a Tuesday. Let's go.

What is up, everybody? I'm Scott Melker, also known as the Wolf of All Streets. Before we get started, please subscribe to the channel and hit that like button right down below. Yesterday was the Labor Day holiday in the United States. So we did not do Macro Monday because all four of us are in the United States and we're spending time with our families and doing other things. And the good news is nothing happened. And it seems that nothing is happening. When we did our research this morning for articles to bring up and big stories, I can say that unsurprisingly here, sort of at the end of the summer and into September, it was one of the driest days ever. The good news is that we've got Mike, James, and Dave, so it's never actually dry around here. Mike, you guys had to have had a morning

meeting today. What's going on? We didn't have it today, but from a commodity standpoint, there is a lot happening and it's all down. Crude oil is down about 2%. Copper is down almost 2%. Gold is hanging in there. It's down fractionally. A lot of that's just following what's happening in iron ore. So it's all based on China and the data that China PMIs housing, everything is just getting worse. So from a commodity standpoint, I see nothing but global recessionary trajectories accelerating. story of the 2550 BIP cut, right? Because we have this sort of idea, and this is one of the articles, the few articles that I was able to bring up. Now I'm looking to find it. But people saying that basically we'll get this bump in Bitcoin when they cut rates, but then there's a recession coming and could lead to correction. And so listen, I think you could take out Bitcoin from that, right? This happens to be the block. So we're talking about crypto.

But you could just say markets if that's what you believe, right? Because that would not be unique to Bitcoin if that's the reason that something like this happens. This kind of feeds into the crack-up boom theory, right? We're going to have a crack-up boom, and then we're going to have a recession. Everything draws down after that, which could be what happens. And the question is, looking at the Fed funds futures here on Bloomberg right now, it's 130% chance of a rate cut in, in September. I mean, you have about 30,

32% chance that we get that a 50 basis point cut and, you know, a hundred percent chance we get 25 basis points and the market is looking for a full percent cut. That's what it's priced in right now. The futures have priced in a full percent cut by December 18th. So the question is, I think, Scott, around 25 basis points or 50 is, is the Fed going to stomach cutting rates with inflation the way they measure it above 2%, 2.3%, 2.5%, somewhere around there? Is that going to be enough? Are they like a half a percent off-ish? Is that going to be enough? Are they going to allow it to trade in a band in order to avoid a recession? I think the answer is yes. I think they're going to be enough? Are they going to allow it to trade in a band in order to avoid a recession?

I think the answer is yes. I think they're going to let it sit around 2.5, 2.6. And if that's what it is, it's what it is. And they're going to start cutting rates. Why? Because we've seen a pickup in joblessness. The unemployment numbers are rising. And as Mike said, if you just look at the tea leaves and the various economic indicators, it looks like we're heading into a recession. You've got the two and 10 year un-inverting. You've got the Fed funds and the two year completely inverted. You've got the unemployment number rising.

You've got the SOM rule has been tripped. It's just a question of how fast and how furious they're going to cut. And I think some of that has to do with market liquidity. And quite honestly, market liquidity has been getting better. You know, if anything's been trading sideways, M2 is expanding. And so there's still plenty of cushion in bank reserves and the reverse repo for the Fed to feel comfortable here. So I think they're going to do 25 basis points. They don't see a credit event on the horizon, and they're going to just see how it plays out. That's my personal opinion. So really quickly, I'm taking a look at the Fed calendar, right? Because you mentioned that it was basically Fed futures were pricing in a full percent by December.

That's interesting because they meet eight times. We have September 17th, 18th, nearly, like you said, 100% chance of some sort of cut. November 6th and 7th, that's, I'm assuming, right at election time or right after. I haven't looked at the exact day of the election. Then December 17 17, 18. So to get to a full point, one of those has to be at least 50 bps. Or they could do an intermediate cut,

which they have done before. It's just that they don't want to spook the markets. They want to make sure the messaging is proper. If they were doing, like, honestly, they could have done a 25 basis point cut this last month and said, we're going to get ahead of the meeting you know because it's it's kind of funny they they have to cut on the meeting that doesn't really make much sense you cut when it's cut so you you could say look we're going to get a cut in

september they don't want to cut in in october right in the middle of october to or september to the november, because there's no meeting in October. And if they do that, it kind of signals emergency. It's an emergency fake Fed cut. And they don't want to do that. But to me, it's probably going to be a 50 basis point cut in December, because then they're going to say, OK, we're going to get ahead of this now. The election's over. It's not political. We're just going to start cutting a little bit more aggressively. That's probably what happens, but who knows? It's the Fed. So I've been formulating a theory, and I was looking through a bunch of stuff this weekend, that, you know, the constituents of the stock market that we all look at

much more than it ever used to be don't reflect the real economy. And I think that's kind of important in terms of financialization, so that if you look at the real economy, I think we all believe that it's tilting into recession and small businesses. We see the unemployment numbers going up. We, you know, the sniff test of what people talk about, you know, relative to inflation in terms of real earnings, et cetera. But if you look at actual earnings and if you look at projected earnings, the S&P, which, you know, Mike keeps talking about how expensive it is, based on that, it's not. I mean, it just isn't. I mean, you know, I'm just looking at a chart of the S&P PE forward ratio. It's supposed to be a site supposed to sign up for,

but just to give you an idea, probably you could find this in the Bloomberg terminal, it'll be easier. But just to give you guys an idea, this is the chart of the S&P forward back since, you know, the 50s, right? Is this showing? Yeah. And yeah, we had this huge time where people were expecting no earnings at the end of the global financial crisis when people were thinking the end is nigh. And it's like, oh, the crackpots were out and the huge rally started. But earnings quickly caught up. And yeah, we had in the pandemic, we had this little peak here. And here we are down here. And if you look, it's more or less been in the same range for that, that it's been in for the 2000. So unless you believe that S and P earnings are going to go kaboom, uh, it's,

there's just no reason to believe that things will, would crash. In fact, there's room for things to keep grinding higher against expectation, uh, which is interesting because I hadn't thought about that before. Because before looking through this, my thought was that Mike is right, that it's like, listen, things look really expensive. Now, commodities, on the other hand, reflect the real economy, or at least copper and silver. The reason that Mike wrote an article over the weekend that was interesting about the silver-gold ratio, and you should talk about that mike because you wrote it i shouldn't be the one explaining it but it he pointed out the tldr is silver is more relying on the industrial output uh gold isn't and therefore gold's going to outperform silver did i do that okay mike

well you crushed it on gold demonetizing everything, mostly silver. Your history of that. I remember we did a program in March, the one I missed, and I was listening to it, and I was on a road trip, and you crushed it. You got the macro right on. And to me, it's similar right now. The macro for the gold-silver ratio is, yeah, an environment like this should expect gold to continue to outperform silver, copper, like everything in commodities. The problem is it's even outperforming the stock market it's not a good sign um and so i mean right now gold silver is about 86. i think when sir isaac newton um was headed the uh chant the mint in the uk in

england it was probably 15 16. it's been going up for centuries. 15, 16 is the ratio of gold and silver in the Earth's crust in terms of mineable metal. So 15 is if neither had a monetary component. And they were both just being used based on rareness and what people like to use it for, you know, jewelry, you know, silver is more industrial uses than gold. But gold is a good conductor of electricity, et cetera. It would gravitate back to 15. so the argument among the silver bulls relative to gold is it's the monetary side and bitcoin people say well wait a minute bitcoin's going to demonetize gold so eventually gold will go the gold the gold silver ratio will come back down it's sort of an adjunct trade that that you can make uh your point is well, you could trade that if you wish on the long term.

But in the short run, guys, this is the reality. People still use gold as a monetary metal. They don't use silver anymore. And that's less use. Yeah, you're right on. So this was, it's one of the things that we learn here is repetition is reputation. And certainly when I get something right, I like to repeat it. And if I get it wrong, it's best I point out why I'm wrong and what the reason is.

So I wrote on this back in June. I just kind of republished similar. And the key things I look at are the macro. I'm looking for everything. And just kind of a little bit back and counterpoint a little bit to what Dave was saying. Everybody says the same thing about earnings. I get it. Earnings are great.

But if you look at volatility and interest rates, that disparity in the, it's the lowest since 2006, 2007. Some of us use that as a great signal and had a great year in 2008. If you look at the inverted curve, it's the most inverted in, we have to say, decades, up to the 80s. It's just starting to disinvert. And you look at unemployment rate, it's just starting to bottom from 3 point something rate. We all know it goes to 6% without stopping. Maybe it's different this time. But I saw you use gold, silver. I use gold, copper. I use gold, crude oil. It's just gold versus everything. And I'm concerned and I'll restate my outlook. Everything I see in commodities is gold should continue to outperform all commodities and potentially continue to outperform most risk assets. And potentially I'm concerned

by the end of this year, catch up to Bitcoin. Mike, they're putting you on TV at 9.30. In 15 minutes, you'll leave us for about 15 minutes specifically to talk about copper. Why are they asking about copper? Because it's going down in the consensus it was supposed to go up. And we have heard this. This is wonderful. It's one thing that I love about markets is we generally anticipate it doesn't happen, which is what I'm concerned about Bitcoin. So Goldman came out and pulled back in their bullish stance. So we've known they've been bullish copper for years and finally just said it's because of China and most notably China.

But I've been pointing this out for years. I've been wrong. But it's one of the things I enjoy as a commodity person is, you know, when you're with consensus, you got a problem. And sometimes you want to be against consensus. You want to hear that you're, Hey, you're an idiot factor, particularly if you know, you're putting on a trade, which I don't anymore. So that's the main reason, but copper from Friday is down about 3%. It's been my main commodity. I've been looking at is it's just ripe to collapse because of the reason it went up very similar to the reason that Bitcoin put in a peak. We had massive speculative accesses that pumped copper up to a new high this

year at 5.2. Right now it's four bucks. And to me, it's going to go back to three. That's what it usually does. If you look at certainly the last 15 years, there's one key thing that's really close to the dollar price of copper at four right now. And that's bond yields in China and US, 10-year-old yields. So I'll point this out is the 10 year yield in china is 2.15 percent the cgb and the chinese government has been pressuring trying to make that go higher they've been selling bonds it's been unsuccessful by them buying etfs in the stock market it's been unsuccessful and you look at that 10 you know 385 to me that whole thing is just bodies in motion going lower what stops it james yeah what about what and what about crude do, I mean, what is your outlook on crude?

Collapse. I mean, so crude's the same thing. Again, we had a lot of firms saying it was going to go above 100. Consensus was completely wrong. And they missed the number one thing about crude oil. Number one, it's the most autocorrelated commodity on the planet. It goes down because it went up. Just a simple fact.

And it's going down now because it went up too much. And all those factors of high prices are increasing the excess of supply, decreasing demand, and pushing it back lower. And I can go into nuances of the US, the transmogrification of the US going from net importer to net exporter, China demand in decline, OPEC spare capacity off the charts. But it all goes to what copper, what I think crude oil is going to do is what it has done since 2008. It has to pressure below the cost of production to shut that off and to go back up. And that's basically around $40 a barrel. That's what it's been doing since it's done it three times below since 2008. I think the pattern's intact. And the key thing that's holding everything up is the U.S. stock market.

And maybe that's starting to tilt lower. So these are the deflationary dominoes I fully expect to kick in. They're the lessons of history after these big money pumps. And it's just a question I tilt over the Bitcoin. Bitcoin led the way up for a good decade. And I'm afraid it's going to lead the way back down. So let's talk through something Dave said before, and you hit on in the beginning there, Scott, is that the market is not the economy. We know that.

However, the U.S. is so financialized now that if the stock market does crash, it will affect not just the credit market, but eventually it will in turn affect the economy. So on that whole point of deflation, Mike, and these massive liquidity pumps, I think I'd like to look through that. Now, I'm not a trader anymore. I've got long-term capital investments and I'm trying to look through this. So I think your point on gold is very important. And for me, it's Bitcoin as well. And I own both. But Bitcoin is the fastest horse in the race and has been, it's going to be. And that's long term. But looking through this and the financialization of the markets, we know that we talk about it ad nauseum here. We know that we cannot have a cataclysmic crash here in the markets because of the financialization of it. And that liquidity

pump that we saw in 2008, which was multiplied by three or four X in 2020. And then we're going to see that multiplied again in the next one. So the question is how fast and steep is this drawdown and what causes it? And is there going to be some sort of, you know, black swan event, or are we just going to grind lower into an recession that we just can't have? Because the deficits are so large now, It's not about the Treasury saying, oh, well, we don't want to issue more debt. They literally will have a problem in the credit markets if we get to a point where we have not just $2 trillion recessions, but $4, $5, $6 trillion recessions. That would be a major problem. And that would happen if we have a large drawdown.

And I want to make a follow-on point to that. And it's something you said before, James. When you look at crude oil and you talk about the past and the $40 pivot and all that stuff, in 2020 to $2010, that's probably true. In $2,000, that's probably true. But $2024 are different. And the most important point here is the denominator. Everything is in dollars

and as you can see you know since 2015 since 2015 this is 10 years uh you know there are a lot more of them uh frankly there's double of them so if you had a price into for people who are following along at home if you had something that you considered a commodity price in 2014, 10 years ago, you would expect that commodity to be twice. If it isn't, that's because of factors that Mike likes to point out, which is very true, which is we've had great technology and we've improved it. And that technology has improved it. So the cost of production in 2014 dollars in this example, maybe we cut it by 50%. So it's only 50% more. So if the equilibrium price in 2014 was 40, then the equilibrium price today is probably 60, which is still a pretty significant drop from here, but it's worth understanding that. Now, the other thing I

wanted to point out, because it's fascinating, is if you zoom into this year, you see August, because they just reported, I can't tell, tell yeah this was july so as the presidential election started to heat up and people started to be a fear you know they started to see you know the the what's that ratio called for recession i forgot uh the one that you guys always talk about the misery index yeah well whatever anyway it's it's as they saw it, the July money M2 growth was the largest of the last couple of years. And we have no idea. We will have to wait till the end of September to see what they did in August and so on. But the fact is, M2 goes up.

What does that mean? It sounds clinical, but it means something very important. It means that the denominator of how we value things has changed. And therefore, all things being equal, prices should be higher. And the thing that I've been saying since we started this show, and I give Powell a lot of credit for this, is what have they been trying to engineer? What they've been trying to engineer is a retilt back toward asset inflation

away from consumer inflation. And if you look at the data, he's been pretty much succeeding. Now, can he do that forever? That's a manipulated economy. But the fact is, they want asset inflation. Asset inflation in the S&P. They want asset inflation in the long bond, which effectively creates lower borrowing costs for the government. That's what they want. Now, whether they're going to succeed or not is a different story. But that is what they want now whether they're going to succeed or not it's a different story but that well they can succeed dave if if they if they lower rates in a way that doesn't crash the economy like crash the market like if they if they lower rates like 50 100 like that'll spook everybody if they lower it nice and nice and slowly and they start taking out that those

interest payments to to you know uh those who have a lot of capital is sitting in money markets and are, you know, you're seeing how much, how, just how much that is actually driving it, that, uh, that economy in there's two economies we've talked about, you know, but if they start lowering that to the point where, okay, so now asset inflation remains where it is. So it doesn't crash the housing market. It doesn't crash the stock and other asset markets. But it kind of takes out that excess spending. Then they succeed.

Now, can they do it? The question now is, what to housing market? You know, you start, you start unlocking these mortgages for people who've been sitting on houses that have been doubled, they've doubled in some, some, you know, areas more than that, that you, you, there, you have people are waiting to sell because they want to downsize, but they don't want to go get a mortgage at 7%. So if they get a mortgage at four or 5%, okay, now I'll sell. And you could see some sort of cascading effect off of that. It remains to be seen. I mean, the thing about housing that's fascinating. So I'm visiting the Jersey Shore

and we were driving around the other day in a town called West Creek. It doesn't matter. There's a really good Greek restaurant in a place called Tuckerton. That's kind of a hole in the wall. Incredible food. Great place. Costas Cafe, if anyone's ever in the area, it's highly recommended. Best pistachio ice cream I've ever had, among other things. But what was interesting is we drove past and there's a sign and you can see the houses. The houses are, I mean, they're houses. I mean, I wouldn't even call them McMansions. I would just call them cookie cutter houses on half acre lots in West Creek, New Jersey, in the middle of nowhere that five years ago before the pandemic, at least, it would have been incredible to see those houses trade as high as three hundred thousand dollars and the big sign outside. And there are a lot of them in their bill. And there are some people in them already, say, starting in the 700s.

And you start thinking about that and you see what's going on in areas that are farther because this is two plus hours from New York and an hour and 45 from Philadelphia. Now, obviously, more people are moving areas like that because of remote work part of the time and part-time remote and full-time remote. But still, it's a big deal. So I started doing some research, and you look at the cost to build. And what's fascinating is the cost. This is why I find one of the problems I have with our political leadership or want to be political leadership is the cost to build this house, what used to be $200,000 10 years ago, is now closer to $550,000. So at the end of the day, yeah, $700,000 seems crazy. $550,000 would actually seem high.

But $550,000 would mean no margin for the builders whatsoever. And so it's a question of we have a huge problem in this country that housing affordability is just really, really bad. And you can pull it up on Bloomberg, Mike, and tell me what they're saying. But there's an index on that. It's bad, except that the cost to build is such that even in the worst housing market collapses, it doesn't generally go more than 25% below the cost to build because at that point, it's all, well, I mean, obviously, you see lots of firms going belly up. There's all sorts of things. So we have a lot of push-pull going on in the economy. And what does this mean for assets?

Well, I mean, what it means is the government's going to have to print. And they're already doing it. That's the thing. M2 going up in a nothing summer by that amount is telling you that the government knows they need to print and it's going to happen. And so, you know, I saw an argument over on Twitter over the weekend about someone said, well, if Trump wins, Bitcoin's going to go blah, blah, blah. And someone else said, well, if Harris wins, it's going to go higher, blah, blah. And someone else said, well, if Harris wins, it's going to go higher. His reason was because she's going to spend even more. I don't know if that's true, and I don't really care.

But the fact is, is if you believe that the government is going to continue to print and deficits are going to continue to widen and more and more people will opt out of the system, as it were, to go to Bitcoin, then Bitcoin will go higher. Now, look, I am a- Scott, pull up that chart to show Dave's point on the housing prices. Go ahead, Dave. Sorry. Yeah. No, my point is that Bitcoin, we all know I think it's an option. We all know that I think that there have been crazy one-off supply things that have all happened in the summer. And it's going to be the exact opposite as we get into the winter.

Right. You know, so in the summer we had German government selling 50,000 Bitcoin. We have the Mt. Gox distributions. There are rumors of the U.S. government selling, yada, yada, yada. There's still people doing what Mike is saying is taking profit at this level. People are cashing some out to live, you know, from early Bitcoiners. That's true. Hell, people sold Bitcoin to donate to political campaigns in the hundreds of millions of dollars. So, you know, there's been a lot of liquidity that's come in. At the same time, we've had long term buyers which have kept it in this trading range. And we can talk about the trading

range, but whatever. The funniest thing about the crypto market is that we don can talk about the trading range but whatever it the the funniest thing about the the crypto market is and we don't talk about it a lot here scott you know this it's the more boring it gets the more desperate people become and so the sense of quiet desperation that's becoming do something do something in the crypto markets is actually, it's comical in a way. I mean, I would say the mood is as bad now as it was in the depths of crypto winter. And here we're still trading within 10 to 20% of all time highs in Bitcoin, at least. I mean, Ethereum not being able to do much beyond what, 25?

It's 25, perpetually 25. It's driving people crazy. And why does this matter? Well, because there's an old expression about when bottoms are formed. Bottoms are formed when sellers get exhausted. And there's all sorts of speculators. We know, and Mike has nailed this many times, and he and I agree on this, the marginal buyer or seller of the price center in the crypto markets are speculators.

Right? There are patient long-term buyers like James, who are incredibly important and become more and more important as the price goes up, but the marginal price setter is still speculators. So yeah, there's, I'm looking at Binance right here. There's a half a billion dollars of leveraged longs down to 56,000. Not down to 57,000. Sorry. And how many, how much leverage short interest is there? leveraged longs down to $57,000. How much leveraged short interest is there? Well, it's about $300 million up to $60,500.

It's about $400 million up to $1,000. There's a lot up in the 70s. I love how people always send these clickbait tweets that are like, if Bitcoin hits $70,000, $3 billion in shorts will be wiped out as if none of those people could close a short between $59,000 and $70,000 and don't have stop losses. But the point is those numbers are still not very big relative to the market. Certainly, they're smaller than they used to be. And the amount of liquidations we've seen has been much, much smaller. But look, we know that when markets stay in a certain place for a long period of time,

people start leaning on that price. Right? You know, we know that. It doesn't matter what the market is. I mean, Mike's thesis on crude oil is people are leaning probably, you know, I don't know where they're leaning there, Mike. You would know better than I. But I guarantee you there are people who have done things like whether it's call spreads, whether it's stops that are sitting there. There's lots of reasons.

And we could go into depth on that if anyone really cared. Mike, do you have to leave us? Yeah, I have to leave. So just two comments. And you're right. Mike, jump in. He'll be back. But yeah, the housing index, the Bloomberg index back to 1986 is the affordable index is the lowest ever.

So it's what, 40 years there. But sucks. It's a sign that, OK, well, we need a little reversion. The key thing I like to point out is the price. And Dave, you nailed it about, you know, there's more money in the system, but that's how deflationary commodities are. It's always like people say when they want to buy commodities, I'm like, OK, we'll buy the producers, maybe some metals and maybe gold because we can just create more with less every day. And despite the fact money supplies up 35 percent since the end of 2019, I mean, you got the S&P 500 up, but commodities are going lower. And that's the key thing about the 40 billion index for copper is declining, crude oil is declining. These are all things that lumber is declining in the building of homes. The thing is you need unemployment. And that's one thing. Unfortunately, everything will reset with unemployment, 401k contributions, everything. And for unemployment, it's still historically very low. It's heading higher. And that to me is the trend. But it's such a slippery slope, Mike. Once

it starts rising, that's it. It cascades. And we know that. Yeah. So that's what I'm thinking. But you mentioned, I completely agree with what you said, Dave, James. We're going to get this money pump. But the thing is, one bridge across first. And that almost never happens until after you get a correction in risk assets.

Right. Well, the only time it does happen is when you get some sort of credit event like we saw. A perfect example we've talked about before is a 2019 repo market spike, which was because of really tactical errors of the treasury and the Fed. I'll be right back. I'm going to go talk about crude oil and copper going down. Go for it. And that could happen where you have another tactical error. The treasury was trying to issue so many bonds. They were trying to float so much debt. At the same time, we had tax payments due. At the same time that the dollar was strong and hurting international demand. And you had the repo market spike by over 100%. And that happens very quickly. And I'll bring up a chart here, Scott, so you can see it and you can show people just how quickly

this stuff happens. Just bear with me for one second. It was in my newsletter, if you have that up already. I can find it while you're talking. No, I'm going to bring it up. Cause this is, this is really important. This is the kind of stuff that people don't really think about. And it does happen, you know? Um, yeah. Okay. Here, I'm bringing it up right here. You see it? Uh, I'm going to bring it up on this one. All right. This is, this is. This is how quickly these things happen. And it's something that you have to kind of factor in. So this is now SOFR. They call it SOFR now.

But this is effectively the overnight rate that spiked. You see it, Scott? There you go. That spiked in 2019 because of that tactical error. And it happened so quickly. You know, if you go from just about two percent to two point three percent up to almost up to five percent, literally in one night, you know. And so that's when when you can have the Fed step in, the Treasury step in, which they did and you can see that here and i'll bring up this chart um you can see that here that they did they stepped in right as that happened because they can't have dysfunction in the treasury market you see that one yep so that right there, that bump is the repo spike. It happened in 2019 in September, and they started buying assets.

That's QE going into 2020, going into the lockdowns before we even had lockdowns. So that was a complete reversal. They were doing QT, and then boom, overnight, they went to QE. This is what concerns me. And that's why timing this shit is really hard. And people have to just understand that. You have to be really careful about trying to be too tactical with things like Bitcoin in particular. You can talk about risk assets. You can talk about stock market. I have taken a lot of my stock market investments for my personal account off the table and then moved

into a lot of gold and Bitcoin looking on the other side of this. And having gold and having cash, meaning high interest earning cash, meaning T-bills, meaning money markets, allows you to be tactical rather than just trying to trade around this stuff. And the worst thing you could do, in my opinion, again, is try to trade around Bitcoin because Bitcoin, literally 90% of the returns of Bitcoin come in 10 days every single year. And if you miss those 10 days, you're out. You missed it. So that's a really tough one to be to be tactful about, in my opinion. I mean, I think it's important from the macro perspective to explain why.

So, you know, we have this. The numbers were what? 400 you said like 400 million. It's it's less than a billion dollars of leverage. Right. Yeah. Yeah. So it's not huge amounts. It's not half a billion, half a billion either side. Up or down, $2,000, half a billion either side-ish. Right. So we know that in all likelihood, the reason Bitcoin has been so uncorrelated from the stock market and other assets over the last three months is excess kind of one-off supply shocks. The 50,000 Bitcoin did it in Mt. Cox, yada, yada, yada. Well, we know a few things that are about to happen. Now, they're not going to happen tomorrow, but they are going to happen over the next

four to six months. So over the next four to six months, a few things we are absolutely certain of. This is nothing controversial here, but understand that it's not priced into the market. We know with certainty that FTX is going to give billions of dollars back. I think it's $17 billion back to people. And there are lots of people now, of course, the professionals that have hedged it, you know, they're probably not putting some in, but some percentage of that is going to go back into crypto, probably a fair amount of it in Bitcoin, you've got to figure, you know, whatever, if, if let's say 30% of that 25% of

it goes in, and that's probably about the numbers that make sense. I've seen people think it'll be more, I think that's wrong. Because I think a lot of the a lot of the proceeds have been given to professionals who don't necessarily have a need to do anything, but they're just normal human beings who had it are going to want to put it back in. And so that's a fairly large amount of supply. We know with absolute certainty that the fiscal, the next fiscal year for companies starts in many cases, the whole season starts October 1st. Lots of companies have fiscal years that end in September, lots of them have fiscal years that end in October, etc. Why am I mentioning this? I'm mentioning it because the three companies that I know of that have publicly announced they put Bitcoin on the balance sheet have seen their

stocks rip. CFOs are, if nothing, copycats. Just like the National Football League or baseball, whoever wins a championship, their blueprint is always copied. There are going to be a lot of companies that are going to do that. Now, why do I say it? It's because the accounting rules allow them to do that now. They didn't used to be able to take credit for it. So it would have to be a non-gap earnings. Now you can have Bitcoin's value appreciation in your gap earnings. And that's going to matter. And we know that. There's no joke about this. People are going to say, well, they were surprised so and such companies did this. Well, it's not a surprise. It's going to happen. It's not going to be zero. We know that the wire houses, as soon as they they're back from the Hamptons today and they're going to start selling Bitcoin to their, you know, to their people because they're going to want to be the first ones to do it. Because if Bitcoin does go up, then they don't want to be left behind.

And so there's there's lots of demand pressures that is the reason. Now, Scott, I know you and I know a lot of people who would say, yeah, Dave, that's all great storytelling and wave your arms around storytelling. The fact is we're this part out of the having, and this is what happens at this point in the cycle. And pull up the chart I just pulled up, Scott. This is a great chart that I saw online this weekend from Aubrey Hill and Kurt Alrichter. This is the VIX heading into an election on average. So on average, this is what happens, the VIX. So the volatility in the market picks up as we go into the election for September into November. So you can be rest assured that there will be uncertainty and a lot of movement around

Bitcoin to Dave's point in the next month. So buckle in. I mean, buckle in. Let's talk about the election because people don't understand, you know, forget what's at stake and that we could talk about that at length. But I just meant purely for price. Neither candidate is anti-Bitcoin. Let's just start with that. Trump is massively pro-Bitcoin. He wants a Bitcoin reserve.

We understand that. We get the idea. There's massive differences between the two of them when it comes to the crypto industry. And who will be the ones to monetize bitcoin there's virtually no difference in terms of bitcoin because with blackrock and fidelity behind bitcoin via the etf they're not going crazy the one thing that people forget is that and you have all silicon valley a lot of it, supporting Harris, despite her wanting to institute a massive increase in capital gains taxes, which would crush Silicon

Valley. And when you talk to them privately, they say, oh, it'll never pass. Well, okay, maybe. But there's a famous battle, the Battle of Circe, I don't know, I may be pronouncing it wrong, which is a very pivotal battle in the Hundred Years' War between Britain and France. And in that battle, one of the sides, I think it was the French, decided it would be smart to, because the wind was blowing from them to the English, to light the grass on fire. And that fire, and the wind shifted, of course, after they did it, and it led to their defeat. They couldn't see. The English had long bows. There's all sorts of reasons other than that. But it's actually kind of funny. I mean, the simple fact is, if you have massive capital gains taxes, that's going to hurt every asset, Bitcoin included, if you can find it.

And people are going to be there's going to be capital fleeing America in that scenario. And so, you know, who knows? I don't think any of that will happen. But what we do know is the deficits are going to go crazy, probably under both. The only difference really between the two of them is one wants to cut government and the other one wants to increase it. Well, I would say that under Trump, we may have more productive deficit spending, meaning we're not spending on green energy. It doesn't work. We're actually spending on infrastructure and, you know, technology and oil and gas initiatives that will actually add to energy efficiency in the economy, which would be productive. Yeah. I mean, look, I've tried to stay apolitical, but I've become pretty obvious that I'm going to vote for Trump is because of RFK, who I was very seriously considering voting for, who, while I don't agree with all of his positions, I certainly agree with him on the environment. I certainly agree with him on the food supply. I certainly agree with him about the corporatization of America in many respects and crony capitalism. But why is all this relevant? Well, it's relevant because he's a true Bitcoiner.

And so he's injecting that. And all you have to know about politicians are they don't want to leave themselves exposed on issues that have actual voters associated with them. And so we'll see. I've had a conversation with RFK this past year. We are seeing in a small group. We talked about an hour. He really does understand and likes Bitcoin like he understands it. He gets it.

He's not a talking point. He understands it. What's that, Scott? He owns a ton of it. I mean, to me, just a couple of weeks ago. Yeah. My concern with with the Harris administration is not Kamala. I mean, she's obviously just a front. But, you know, the Warren faction that Chokepoint 2.0 was real. I'll say it again. And it's continuing. It is not stopping.

And they want to do Chokepoint 2.1 or 3.0. That is problematic for Bitcoin companies. Let me make myself very clear here. Including mine, by the way. By the way, James, I agree with you. I agree with you completely, but I want to make it clear. If you're talking about the most likely scenario in a Harris administration, the safest bet on the planet is Bitcoin dominance going up. Sure. I agree. I was just going to say, I actually saw a pretty compelling argument. People are going to freak. Guys, don't freak out. This is something that I read and was thinking about and has nothing to do with politics. This is a critical thinking exercise. Yes. I'm sorry. I'm just going to tell you. So I read something actually that was interesting and was thinking about it and has nothing to do with politics. This is a critical thinking exercise. Yes. I'm sorry.

I'm just going to tell you. So I read something actually that was interesting. I started thinking about it, that if Kamala wins, that could actually be more bullish for the price of Bitcoin than a Trump win, but not for the rest of the market, which is basically what Dave kind of just said. Bitcoin dominance would rise. If we believe that Bitcoin is a flight to safety in the Silicon Valley bank situation, or when the Trump assassination attempt happened, Cypress Bank way back in the early days of Bitcoin. If we believe that people will rush to safety or exit the legacy system into Bitcoin, then fear of what Harris will do should actually cause people to buy Bitcoin, which already is effectively clear of regulatory panic, right? We have the ETFs, Bitcoin itself. I'm not saying self-custody or anything around it,

but Bitcoin itself as an asset. People should fly to safety of Bitcoin and it should go up. And interestingly, I was down in Puerto Rico a few months ago and everyone there was saying, listen, our real estate prices will either collapse completely or rise massively based on whether at the time Biden or Trump wins. A Biden win and literally prices in Puerto Rico where people flee taxes double. And they will completely collapse if Trump wins because people won't flee to Puerto Rico to save in their taxes. It's sort of the same type of idea. But I'm not saying self-custody would save. I'm not saying the industry would be safe. But Bitcoin price could go up because of fear of Trump losing.

I think it's an important point to understand what James was saying. The world that likely emerges in that Warren basic continuing-led economy is not a world I'm particularly happy about, but it would be a world where, okay it if you're if you're elizabeth warren the easiest way to stay to keep and you notice there's not been much that not a peep of fud about bitcoin has come from her in you know since this election cycle started not a peep zero she still talks about crypto she still talks about stuff but she doesn't talk about bitcoin because she knows she's wrong on it you know the environmental arguments have been not just debunked but it's literally very clear the other way now ai gets those we've moved that's right yeah but which is fair i mean you know you use electricity it's

like whatever so if you don't have the corresponding productivity improvements whatever but the point that i'm making is what they want to do is co-opt bitcoin. There are many Bitcoiners who will be nodding if they're listening to me, because we've heard this from many Bitcoiners. It's like, well, what's the goal? Okay, you can't, you know, first they fight you, then you win. But how does win look?

What is win? If win is they adopt it as their own, they sanction only the ETFs as a way for people to own it. They continue to keep broker dealers from being able to trade it, which of course is ridiculous. And that's probably the first thing that should change. But that world means that most of what we care about in crypto is problematic. So one of the stories this past week that kind of goes to this is this SEC is still reserving the right to call stablecoin securities. And that's a big story because basically, you know, you talk to the Franklin

Templeton people and it's funny because they are really, really sharp and right out, way out on the curve here. They created this asset, a digitized money market fund called the Benny. But they're very careful not to call it a stable coin, despite the fact that it's one-to-one for the dollar with yield. Could it be used? And is it transferable? And is it efficient? Yes, all those things. But they don't call it a stable coin. Why? Because they don't want it to be a security. And they don't want to have to deal with the fact that you deal with it. Also understand that it means if you could trade security peer to peer, that is very, very difficult for current regulation. So there's all sorts of stuff that has to get fixed. But we know that Bitcoin doesn't have that real problem.

And if it turns out that a Harris administration effectively concedes Bitcoin, maybe Ether to the ETF ETF-only crowd and allows people to buy it. We know that the Federal Reserve, they didn't care about gold when it went from $800 to $1,900. They literally didn't care. And what does that mean? That means the Federal Reserve doesn't give a crap if Bitcoin 10Xs. It won't matter to them. Yeah, but going back to going back to your your your, you know, stable coin statement, I understand Tether USDT holds over it holds over 70 billion dollars of U.S. Treasuries. It has as more treasuries than I'm reading here on Yahoo Finance, has more treasuries than Mexico, Spain, and the United Arab Emirates. I mean, this is not something that they can play.

And again, when I was up in DC talking to the aides and whatever, trying to explain to them and try to walk them through Bitcoin, the differences and all that. One of the comments that came out of one of the offices, like we've talked to Tether and we understand just how integral they are to the treasury market now. That's not going away. You know, this is not going away. That's a great point. The single biggest reason Tether has the assets that it has is as an on-ramp to the crypto ecosystem around the world.

Full stop. Yeah. A large amount of that is nothing to do with Bitcoin. And that is, I mean, if you remember, and it feels like it was decades ago. It was only like five years ago. Five years ago, Bitcoin's volumes, people looked at it and you saw Bitcoin's volumes were X. And you look and you realize that three quarters of that volume was Bitcoin being used as an on ramp to buy all coins. That is almost gone now. Nobody uses Bitcoin to buy all coins.

They sometimes do it as an efficient trade, but it's almost all versus tether. All of that has migrated into what Mr. McGlone calls crypto dollars, which I think is important because it allows U.S. policymakers to understand what you just said, James, which is why I don't think any of this stuff is going anywhere under either administration. Obviously, there are differences, but the notion of the election being a black swan against bitcoin no not not real we're talking about we're talking but against the crypto industry maybe well yeah i mean my company that you know i'm chairman of the board of a company called coin routes and obviously i'm one of the co-founders of it i mean our company if if it you could pretty much guarantee that if the election goes one way, most of the company will be overseas. Our CEO has already moved and is a resident of Dubai.

So, I mean, and that's just because, you know, with Chokepoint and everything else going, and that's because we're pure software, but we are more profitable if we can allow, if we could be an agency of introducing broker. So, you know, but there's no route to that in the U S there just isn't. I mean, we're going to, you know, it doesn't matter. I don't want to talk about Coinbase. That's not really the point. The point is that a lot of companies are doing that. Most already have the industry has gotten crushed.

People are like Miami. Everyone's saying we'll be a crypto company capital for crypto software. And there's still some people working on stuff. But if you're in the US and you're working on crypto, it's just you're essentially operating with hands tied behind your backs. way about a lot of technology companies that's true but it doesn't matter the fact is is people this is the global world people do not just kind of accept you know dominance of of one thing so yeah that's on the ballot but that doesn't have anything to do with the price of bitcoin it was something but not a lot what a moment that was when miami became the temporary crypto capital of the world for six months and then literally everybody moved to dubai and singapore or just got the hell out of there i mean people stayed for the uh tax breaks in florida but i think i still love living in miami beach and it's i love it too i'm just saying there

was that moment when the city was putting it on the balance sheet you could pay your bills suarez was a huge big one you don't hear anybody talking about that anymore. Well, what happens in a Trump administration? Yeah, I think it comes back. Mike, you know, you didn't get to touch on this yet, but I'd be interested to hear what you guys are saying, what your analysts are saying, and Ana Wong and whoever else may touch on it. It's like, what are you – and I pulled up this chart, and I'll pull it back up again, Scott,

about the volatility picking up prior to elections. It happens, you know, pretty much every every year. And on average, it's pretty significant. Here it is, Scott. And so the question is, Mike, there's the you know, this is the VIX picking up volatility, picking up going into an election, how it just kind of dies down afterwards. But the question is, are you guys talking about market reaction to either or anticipation to either party winning? So this is, I think I've heard a lot of, and we all know what happened in the last election. Mr. Trump still has not accepted the results as far as I understand. So even if there's a close race, that's the problem. We might not have a clear transition of power, which is part of what makes America great. I don't want to push back and dave too much.

So to me, that's part of the risks I see everywhere. Volatility extremely low, stock market extremely high. And the assets I see on a global basis, like I mentioned commodities, it's just showing me a great reset. It's just getting started. So if it doesn't trickle down to the stock market in Bitcoin, that's great. But the problem is I think the key thing I compare Bitcoin to and people are forgetting is they're telling me what's going to happen. And we've talked about this before, but I see no evidence of it yet.

And that is show me how it's going to beat this beta and gold when beta goes down. And it's doing the opposite so far. And beta hasn't even gone down yet. It's just knocking around. But we have a colleague, my colleague, Nathan Dean, a good Chicagoan. He comments on that a lot. I haven't seen his latest. Okay.

Yeah, I mean, I think we're there. It's going to be, I think volatility is going to pick up going into this, honestly, Mike. trade, particularly when people don't expect it, they tell me how great earnings are. And we've heard that consensus. It's just sometimes when you've got 23% above the 100-week moving average and it has to be 500 rules, you never want to be overweight long. A few times in history, and this is actually since 1999. And then it goes back. And so I'm a commodity guy. I look at simplistically stretch prices. That's all. Yeah. I want to be really clear. I'm not what the reason I made my point earlier is not about trading. It's about, you know, where, you know, where the long-term equilibrium will get established. I mean, you know, we easily have room in the stock market for 25% correction without anything being broken from the long-term. The problem with that is 25%

correction in the stock market, what that does to people's 401ks and the people who are living off of their stock holdings will accelerate into the mainstream economy rather quickly, which is why the most likely scenario, if the market does start to drop significantly, is the Fed will panic. And that's been your point all along, Mike, which is the Fed will act. The reason, it's kind of a weird recursive kind of thought process, but think of this. The stock market starts into a serious correction after the Fed only cuts 25 basis points. And then what do they do? And then they do something crazy. They do an intermediate cut, which tells the people, which people say, oh my God, the Fed's panicking.

They know something we don't. And they start selling. And if you look, you know, James, you love your chart, the one that shows every single time the Fed starts cutting rates, what happens to the market. The market always goes down before it goes back up again. I got it right here. And it includes the interest rate. As you said, the yield curve. I mean, this is as close as we've been to uninverted. This is the monthly. But even if you look at it on a daily, we curve. I mean, this is as close as we've been to uninverted. This is the monthly.

But even if you look at it on a daily, we're pushing it right there. So the monthly chart. We're basically uninverted, yeah. But I mean, is it Fed pivot here in red? Right at the edge of the pivot? Well, the thing we've talked about in this program forever, I'm almost 60. I've never seen a more anticipated Fed cut cycle in my life. And it's never happened with the stock market more elevated in my life.

And I say elevated, it's most of the rest of the world stock market versus commodities, all that stuff. And that's when we have, that's when mean reversion, it's just, it's a normal thing, as you mentioned, Dave. But it's the iterations from this that is the great reset that some of us start writing about too long ago. That's just kicking in. It's the delayed reaction. Now, this is a tremendous ideal opportunity for what I've been used to my whole life is to tactically orientate. Remember, I'm from the trading pits. All we want is volatility. Let me get in a trade to last a couple months. I'm in it. It's the long buying whole people are so, like you mentioned, David, they're so accustomed to the wealth of depreciation of their homes and their condos and their stock market. It's every single time in history. I just finished Howard

Mark's book of cycles. It always cycles back. And this is where I'm just saying the trigger is there. That's why I keep saying golden long bonds are probably the best place to be for a little while. And those who are overweight, the risk off assets will really- For a little while. I would not be in long bonds for a long time because we are going to get that massive pump of liquidity on the back end of this. But go ahead, Mike. I would not hold those long term. I think I'm one bridge at a time. And that's like I just think that what's going to happen is simplistically we'll catch up to China and the rest of the world. Right now, the U.S. yield on the 10-year note is like 90 base points above the rest of the world. The top five countries.

Typically, it's 40, 50, 60 basis points below. So just catch up. The world's already there. Yes, we have a higher deficit, but it's the one thing that I enjoy reading all my stuff is when we all know when the US sneezes, the world collapses. I mean, there's 100 countries with trade surpluses with the US. I think there's five with trade deficits the fed everything is we're more even though we're such a small part of gdp maybe 26 as far as assets under management we're over 60 percent um and those go down a little bit this little cough which is overdue will be quite serious and it's just a normal correction in history Yep. Just nailed that right into 10 o'clock. Magic. Magic.

Perfect, guys. All right. Well, Mike, thanks for coming back. Seven o'clock, Scott. It's seven o'clock. Sorry, seven o'clock. Seven o'clock a.m. for some of us who are very ambitious and who get the award for waking up the earliest

and highest commitment to the show. James, congratulations on your trophy. I forgot it. I would assume I bought it and highest commitment to the show. James, congratulations. James. James Trophy. I forgot it. I would have sworn I bought it and I had it here, but I lost it. All right, guys. So listen, I'm going to let these guys go. And I want to tell you about something I've got launching today.

So gentlemen, thank you very much. Mike, Dave, James. See you next week. There they go. And now you've got just me because I've been talking about this for a while and I'm really excited because it's actually finally happening today. This has taken God knows how many months

for an ADHD, HD, HDAD guy like me to get together, hire a team, put them on this. But here you go. My new website, thewolfofallstreets.com, formerly of thewolfofallstreets.io is launching in three hours, 59 minutes and 15, 14, 13, 12 seconds. That's 2 p.m. Eastern Standard Time. If you go to thewolfofallstreets.com, you will see this right now. But if in theory you were already seeing it launched and were a subscriber, this is what you would actually

see to give you an idea of what's going to be here. So the everyday how. To be clear, first and foremost, nothing I'm already doing is changing at all. My newsletter remains free. My YouTube channel remains free. My spaces, I'm not changing a single thing about the content I do. This is for people who actually want more content from me and from my team. But here you go, the everyday Hal. I'm going to make videos every single day, probably multiple videos because I want to make sure there's value about what I'm looking at on a daily basis, really short videos. Some will be technical analysis. Some will be news reviews. Some will be where I find signal out of the noise. My perspectives that I often don't give

when we have guests, that's going to be here and it will be daily updates into the pack right here. This is going to be interviews that are shorter with higher signal, higher alpha than you see on my channels. When we don't have 30 minutes to talk to someone, maybe some people who have not been featured on the channel because we don't have room for them. And also, of course, the members of the team. I actually have one that will be released at 2pm today with Mr. Dave Weisberger of Macro Monday. We're going to dive in to the carry trade and exactly what that means and what it is. Basically, we want to break down topics, talk about cool projects, things that are happening in an environment that's really high alpha and much shorter and

easier to consume. Trading the trends. This is from Mark Wood, who's a guy, his dad was my seventh grade and eighth grade math teacher. A guy from my hometown is an incredible analyst. He's teaching you guys a ton about technical analysis, how to use it, and his analysis. I love him. The reason that we decided to do this specifically is because he's amazing at high timeframe, longer trends. We're not trying to tell you what to do on any given day. We're not trying to give you financial advice at all. We wanted to give you the tools to take a look at this market and understand how to do it. Top-down analysis. This is more of the daily, what we're thinking about today from our team. So I'll tell you about them in a minute. We have Mark, of course. We've got David Haslop, who runs the Australian Crypto Convention. Guy's absolute legend over there. Incredible analyst looking at things. Researcher Fong, we'll get

into that in a moment. That's right here. This is the alpha drop. I can show you what that would look like. He does these incredible research reports on individual projects. There'll be multiple reports a week. You guys will, by the way, be able to request these. Very important to know, this is a community. There's comments on every single thing. And this is the beta. This is a work in progress. So you guys will be able to say, hey, do a report on this. Hey, Scott, I want a video on this. We're going to work with you to make sure that you get exactly what you want out of this. We have a real-time ticker, right? You guys notice there's a ticker. You see it going across the top. We'll be able to check prices, a dashboard. We're going to be adding a lot to this fear and greed

index down there, a whole lot. And then one of the things I actually think is the coolest and the best, there's a lot here, guys, in case you're wondering. I want you to go to this one place and be able to get everything. But an absolutely endless updating news feed right here. Refresh that really quick, which they're working on at the moment. I literally just got a message. But you get all the news that's happening in the moment. Every five minutes, there's a new story that you can break into. And then, of course, the Alpha Pack. This is going to be for people who really want a lot. You're going to get a hourly Zoom call as a group with me.

That's basically an AMA to give extra attention to people. I can't wait to launch this. I'm really excited. I know that we are launching it right into the slowest week and the slowest market, but really, really, really excited. It's something I've worked on for a very long time. You guys may remember that my newsletter, which became free, used to be a whopping $15 a month. We actually had people who were pissed off when I made it free because they felt like they weren't getting the individual attention they used to. So this is

going to be $39 a month for those of you who want it. I want to reiterate, guys, I've never really felt comfortable monetizing my audience, but I've told you about this for ages. This is a way for A, to pay people and do the content. I don't expect to make a lot of money. And B, to rely a little bit less on sponsors. Because I want to be able to talk directly to my audience with a product I'm proud of and have no reservations sharing. And, you know, the argument with the team always was like, I almost tried to make it free. I did.

Then I realized how expensive that would be and how much work it was going to be. And I do think that, you know, my team and myself, you deserve to at least not to lose a bunch of money for doing content which is uh what i've been doing for as long as i could remember um but guys i'm really really excited about this and uh for those of you who want it it will be live as you can see here at 2 p.m eastern standard time 3 hours 54 minutes and three seconds all right guys that's all i've got for you today. That is at the wolfofallstreets.com. Good luck, but don't monetize Macro Monday, please. Guys, I am never,

ever changing anything on my existing channels. To be clear, whenever you start to charge for something, which is something I hate, people start to say that it was like a rug pull or whatever. I can't do everything in life completely free, but I can continue to do everything that I have done for completely free and intend to. This is for people, a willing transaction between two individuals who want more of what we have to offer. And once again, very important to note, this will be updating daily from myself and my team. So we didn't backlog hundreds of hours of content to drive you nuts. There's a lot of content on there,

but it will be updated constantly moving forward to keep you updated on what's happening in the moment. That's all I've got for you guys today. There's actually no spaces today. But I will see you tomorrow morning and hopefully see you over on thewolfofallstreets.com circa 2 p.m. Eastern Standard Time. I see your guys' very favorable comments over here.

I really agree with you guys. I appreciate you guys. I'm doing this because I apparently hate free time and fun. But because I always just I don't know, you guys know how I am. You've seen it. I don't like feeling static or stuck in the mud. I always want to do more. And this was the best way that we could find to do that. Guys, see you there. Thank you so much.