The Wolf Of All Streets - The Largest Asset Managers In The World Are All In Bitcoin And You Are Bearish!?

Episode Date: October 18, 2023

Join Sandy Kaul, Franklin Templeton’s Head of Digital Asset & Investor Advisory Services, and Chris Inks from TexasWestCapital as we are breaking down the latest in crypto.  Sandy Kaul: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sandy-kaul-8571877 Chris Inks: https://twitter.com/TXWestCapital ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEK DAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/   ►►OKX Sign up for an OKX Trading Account then deposit & trade to unlock mystery box rewards of up to $60,000!  👉 https://www.okx.com/join/SCOTTMELKER  ►►THE DAILY CLOSE BRAND NEW NEWSLETTER! INSTITUTIONAL GRADE INDICATORS AND DATA DELIVERED DIRECTLY TO YOUR INBOX, EVERY DAY AT THE DAILY CLOSE. TRADE LIKE THE BIG BOYS. 👉 https://www.thedailyclose.io/   ►►NORD VPN  GET EXCLUSIVE NORDVPN DEAL - 40% DISCOUNT! IT’S RISK-FREE WITH NORD’S 30-DAY MONEY-BACK GUARANTEE. PROTECT YOUR PRIVACY! 👉 https://nordvpn.com/WolfOfAllStreets   ►►COINROUTES TRADE SPOT & DERIVATIVES ACROSS CEFI AND DEFI USING YOUR OWN ACCOUNTS WITH THIS ADVANCED ALGORITHMIC PLATFORM. SAVE TONS OF MONEY ON TRADING FEES LIKE THE PROS! 👉 http://bit.ly/3ZXeYKd  Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://twitter.com/scottmelker   Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.io   Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe   Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c   #Bitcoin #Crypto #Trading The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

As you can see in the title, the largest asset managers in the world are all in Bitcoin, and you are bearish. That's not the whole story, though. They're not just all in Bitcoin. They're all in crypto, all in the future of blockchain technology, and certainly all in Web3, at least some of them. While the Bitcoin spot ETF has understandably stolen the show over the past few days, especially with the fake news from Cointelegraph that we discussed ad nauseum yesterday with both James Seifert and Eric Balchunas from Bloomberg. If you didn't watch that one, you need to go back and watch it. Absolutely epic. But we've been focusing solely on Bitcoin, but that's because we're in a crypto winter and people

are just talking about Web3 and all the potential there less. But that's not true of every institution. I've got one of my absolute favorite guests and one of yours based on the comments in the past. Sandy Call from Franklin Templeton here to discuss all of that, to discuss how Franklin Templeton is viewing the future of this, not only with their Bitcoin spot ETF proposal, which we won't talk about because we talked about it ad nauseum, but with everything else that they're doing and that they're building in this space. Guys, this is going to be absolutely amazing. We're about to talk institutional adoption. Let's go. It's just become a part of the program and habitual. As I said, guys, we talked the Bitcoin spot ETF to death.

We've seen more news around it. Obviously, Fidelity and others, ARK before, now updating their applications to get in line with the seemingly new needs of the SEC, answering the questions. There was news about Invesco and Galaxy today. Everyone's in line for a Bitcoin spot ETF. We know that. Let's leave it there. Again, I'm much more interested at this point in talking about all of the other things in crypto that seemingly have taken a backseat, but probably will actually be driving true adoption in the future. And I've got Sandy

from Franklin Templeton here to discuss it. Sandy, it's so nice to see you again. Thank you again for giving us your time because I know it's very valuable right now. Well, thank you, Scott. It's my pleasure to be here. I love doing this podcast. I heard a rumor that you're writing 120 page. We call that a book. We call that a book where I'm from, but can I call it a manifest, festo, a paper, basically? Well, why don't you just tell us what it's about? Yeah. So this is based on a survey that we've done. We've spoke to 83 different firms around the world, really in every aspect of financial services. So we talked to asset owners like pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, corporates, insurance companies, endowments and foundations,

family offices. We spoke to intermediaries like private banks, wealth advisors, fund to funds, industry consultants. We spoke to other asset managers, hedge funds, private asset firms, and we spoke to a whole lot of fintech and crypto firms as well. In fact, our interviews covered more than 45 trillion assets under management. And what we did is we pulled all of those findings together, Scott, to come up with a hypothesis on where the world is going. And we're really looking at what is the future of investment and wealth management. And Web3 plays a huge role in that. So that's more all-encompassing, obviously, not just specific to crypto or Web3. I have, obviously, the first, I guess, iteration

here or the summary, On the Verge of Transformation, the State of Investment and Wealth Management in 2023-2024. I was obviously reading through sort of the hot takes here. I got down to number eight and saw a very large focus here on Web3 social network and social capital investing. Can you just give us the broad strokes, I guess, having spoken to all these people, as you said, 45 trillion under management collectively, where does Web3 fit into this picture for all of them, but then also for Franklin Templeton, I guess, specifically? Yeah. So one of the most interesting findings we had in the entire set of interviews for the survey was this emerging idea that today's investment and wealth management industry has been designed by and for the baby boomers. many of the behavioral and psychological changes that mark what has happened with the whole advancements in technology,

with the destabilizing events that many of these generations went much more reliant on living out their social identities via online channels, right? And that these online channels are very important to engage these types of individuals. And that when you think about where their investment interest is moving, their investment interest is really focused much more on the digital assets and nfts right and when you think about traditional stocks and bonds i mean there was an amazing study from the bank of america from their private bank that said 75 of individuals aged 21 to 42 thought it was impossible to actually get outsized returns in stocks and bonds above average returns. So you're really seeing this shift towards thinking

about new models, tech-driven models, and the tech-driven nature of Web3 and the trustless nature where technology and code plays the role that many intermediaries played in the past. That's very appealing to these younger generations. And it's something that we need to consider and bring into the investment and wealth management space. So you said you spoke to effectively 83 different people, open-ended interviews. You probably don't have the exact number, but what would you say, how many of them had literally no understanding of Web3 or crypto or even had never heard of it? I can't imagine that all 83 of them had an opinion on Web3 or that being the future. I would imagine that some of them were completely dismissive or just unaware.

Yeah. I mean, there was a lot that were unaware, right? I mean, we're talking some conservative firms in that mix. And there were a lot that were very dismissive, right? I think that that to me was more interesting that people seem to think that this was a phase, a fad that we've kind of moved past and that AI had replaced blockchain and crypto and that that was the new thing. And that kind of flies in the face of a lot of the reality of what you're seeing on the ground. I mean, right now, what you're really seeing more than anything, Scott, is that, you know, the crypto technologies are being exported out of just the crypto realm. And they're actually re-architecting the entire financial market infrastructure. I mean, we really are seeing such progress in Europe, in Asia, in the United Arab Emirates. These are areas, Brazil, these are areas where they're really rethinking how markets can work and how investments work. we could see some major changes coming that will bring the real world investing much more into alignment with what we're seeing in crypto, where you can have assets commingled in wallets and really start to use these assets interchangeably. So I think it's a really exciting time. And,

you know, you always probably have the skepticism and doubt right before people always think it's time to see that trend re-accelerate. In the past few months, that seems to be the emerging narrative, real-world assets and tokenization. Of course, you and I have talked about this endlessly, and a lot of people have been talking about this even in the past cycle as one of the narratives, but that seems to really be coming to the forefront and dominating, in my opinion. I mean, you even see BlackRock settling tokenized money market funds with Barclays on JP Morgan, Onyx. This is not science fiction. This isn't the Jetsons anymore, right? I mean, it's literally happening in front of us. And I think, in my opinion, it's just prices are down and we're in that part of the

market where there's just less excitement about things that if they happened in a different market would be huge news and extremely exciting. Absolutely. And just consider this, right, the European Union is rolling out a EU wide digital wallet this quarter. Right. So they're already well on the way. And they're going to be announcing their plans for launching a digital euro potentially as early as 2028. So I mean, we're really close to seeing the whole way that the world operates transform in a way that's going to bring it very much into alignment with what we've been talking about in crypto for years now. That's scary to me, obviously,

the central bank digital currency as a crypto native person. But if done correctly, the amount of adoption that that can bring technologically and to the existing assets, I think, is huge, right? I guess as a glass half full person, distributing a digital wallet to every person on a continent, it's hard to be bearish on that, right? Yeah. So how does Franklin Templeton then actually capture this interest, right? If you're correct about this trend, if you're ahead of it, it's not just a boring Bitcoin spot ETF, which I know everybody's excited about. What kind of products can be built? Both for, I guess,

business to business, like a JP Morgan Onyx, something like that, but also for your customers, for you to capture that next generation of investors who are really interested in this space? Absolutely. So I think the first thing to understand is that when you look at what's happening in the crypto domain, these protocols and the innovation that they're driving and the advances that they're creating, new models, this is business value. Take it away from whether it's in the crypto markets or whether it's in the traditional markets. This is crypto value. We saw a really fantastic report just a few weeks ago where they said that if you looked at Ethereum as a tech company, right, as opposed to being just a

protocol, right, you thought of it as a tech company, it actually is in line with meta and with alphabet in terms of reaching 10 billion in revenues faster than almost every other tech company that we've traditionally associated with huge value in the past. So I think that one of the key things we're thinking about Franklin Templeton is we don't care if it's called a token, if it's called a stock, if it's called a bond, we think about what sector does it sit in? Where is it creating value? What companies or other protocols is it competing with? And if I want to capture future value, where do I want to be positioning today to capture

those opportunities before I'm paying up when other people have already recognized the opportunities that are there? We're thinking about where does the whole ecosystem come together? What kind of portfolios can we build to deliver that? That's number one. Number two, what we're thinking about is that there is really, I think, tremendous potential to utilize the new wrappers that we're creating in the crypto space, particularly the NFT wrapper, where you can embed utilization rights and you can embed

ownership rights in the asset token itself. We think that that is going to become really transformational for what we see in the future for investment portfolios, because there's such a hunger, part of this whole social investing trend, there's such a hunger for experiences, along with my investments, my money needs to do more for me, because money is tighter, money is harder to come by, I have more demands, I can't push all this money to the side and let it accumulate for the next 40 years. I need to actually engage with my money. And so we think that the next iteration of how investment and wealth management moves is towards this idea that I'm going to be able to have better living

through investing and that my investment portfolio and what sits in it is going to be able to have better living through investing and that my investment portfolio and what sits in it is going to be much more a reflection of me and who I am. And it's going to give me benefits and perks and rewards that help me to live my life day to day while I'm working and waiting to get that full benefit of the investment itself. I love that. Can we dig more specifically into some examples of what that could actually look like? I mean, we've all seen the early iterations of NFTs that can be viewed as a membership to some sort of club that accrue value and utility in the real world. But I haven't really thought about that through the lens of your quote unquote boring investment

portfolio, adding actual real world value on top of the, you know, the gains that you get from price increasing? Absolutely. So here's a great simple example, right? My municipality is looking to raise money to build a new stadium. I purchased that municipal bond. I give them my money. I am therefore helping my municipality build that stadium. In exchange, I'm going to get specialized owner parking at that stadium. I'm going to get discounts on tickets. I'm going to get first preference when new shows are coming in to buy my tickets ahead of other people because I'm actually an owner and I help to finance that stadium, right? This is what I mean by making it experiential,

right? It's a municipal bond, it's going to be paying out a certain interest rate, might have some tax advantages with it, but it's also going to offer me things that are going to make my life much more interesting or easy to live. So it's sort of the Dow model that we've seen democratizing and obviously decentralizing, but from maybe a centralized authority like your local government? Yeah. Or, you know, look at Taylor Swift, right? How much money has Taylor Swift made this year between her? I think it's $400 trillion, but I'm not sure. Right. I mean, if she decided and she's so, you know, engaged with her fans and she could very easily decide in the future

that she's going to share her royalty pool, 1% of her royalty pool with her fans, that simply would not have been possible in the past, Scott, without this type of tokenized wrapper and smart contract. No way could you ever have split a royalty pool across millions of people like that. But now with the technology, we're really opening up these options. And that's going to help us, I think, really redefine what it means to be engaged with your investment portfolio. Yeah. Obviously, the last cycle for NFTs was largely hype and profile pictures and cartoons and 10,000 collections. I think a lot of people have sort of laughed at that as a bubble. It feels like that was a necessary iteration or

evolution to get us back to these real world use cases for NFTs that the boring people like us were talking about in 2018, 2019, and 2020. So I think that those showed us the early possibilities, but now it's time for this to mature and grow up and to see the real potential. And it sounds like you guys are thinking about that very deeply. Absolutely. And we're going to really be working our hardest to really figure out how can we deliver this into portfolios for our clients and in their portfolio, in their investments of the future? And you're seeing companies already pull this out of the crypto domain and put it into the real world. These digital offerings that you've seen from companies like Nike or companies and a lot of the fashion houses where you can have this NFT and redeem it for a physical item.

That's the first step, I think, in people understanding the power of these wrappers. I think it's going to go much further than that. I think it's going to go much further as well. You talk about Nike and Adidas and Louis Vuitton and Starbucks. I mean, these are the biggest companies in the world. And I think people have sort of laughed or been dismissive of the fact that they tried this, but I think they're just not cognizant of how long this takes to evolve and how much benefit there will be to the companies that have tested this early like this. And seemingly that's what Franklin Templeton is doing as well. But just because there's not a

huge amount of interest in these right now, doesn't mean that they're not building the base and infrastructure for it to be a huge part of their business in the future, right? Yeah. I mean, one of the most interesting discussions we've had lately is how, if you think about where the internet was at this equivalent point in its development cycle, very few people in the world were even aware of or using the internet. And even after the dot-com bubble, it's not like the internet disappeared. That's when we really started to see people that could make these ongoing business models, embrace it. And that's when we really started to see the adoption surge. And we totally expect that same kind of trajectory in the crypto.

Will Franklin Templeton have to build proprietary infrastructure for all of this? Will you have to have your own wallet? And will those assets have to be tokenized in some way by you? Or do you think that there will be a level of decentralization where perhaps a number of institutions adopt the same wallet that was created by some private company or in another manner, or that these can be tokenized by some platform and then traded via Franklin Templeton? So the good news is right now, we have already developed these platforms, right? We've already developed our own wallet because we needed this to participate to the degree we're already participating. Don't forget,

we're trading our tokenized government money market fund every day, and we're keeping those transaction records on the public blockchain, and we're extending across blockchains. So this is something we're already needed to build our own infrastructure to enable. I do think that you're going to see a lot of interoperability. You're going to have all those solutions you just mentioned, Scott. You're going to have people with their proprietary solutions, people with widely adopted solutions, people with private solutions. You're going to have service offerings. This is going to be something that comes together very interoperably, and you're not going to have, I think, a forced standardization in line with the whole idea of being decentralized. There will be lots of different options for how people and how regulated people want to participate, right?

Yeah, and I didn't even intend to do this, but this is something I've been looking at, rwa.xyz, which shows the tokenization of real world assets and the market cap. And I was speaking with Sid from Maple Finance last week, and we brought this up. And I did notice that right at the top there, Franklin Templeton, Benji Investments, $300 million market cap just for tokenized US treasuries, right? We're not talking about private credit or any of the other things, real estate, stable coins, which is all coming soon to this platform. But there you are, right at the top of tokenized treasuries. These are T-bills. Why tokenize treasuries? Obviously, people can go find a way to buy them via ETF or directly from the treasury. What's the upside of tokenizing

bonds and T-bills? Well, for us, I mean, we started this as really trying to understand the operational efficiencies of blockchain, right? We are our own transfer agent. We were keeping our own books and records on all of these different funds that Franklin Templeton runs as a platform. And we really wanted to see, can we save money by keeping these records on the blockchain? Can we reduce our operational costs? And we found, yes, indeed, we can. But what we also realized is that, you know, this is a way to bring that idea of 24-7, 365 into a marketplace, right? We are getting to a point now where we're going to be able, as soon as we are allowed by regulators, to apply intraday credit, intraday

payments. So if you buy my money market fund for me in the middle of the trading day, we're going to be able to split the allocation of the interest in that day. Because it costs less to process it, the expense load on the fund is lower. So you get to keep more of the yield. What you also realize is that using that asset as collateral is much easier. This is why that example that you talked about with BlackRock on the JP Morgan platform, they're using that tokenization because it's better to move the collateral around that way. Now, they're untokenizing those shares and taking them out of the ecosystem when the collateral is no longer needed. But you can keep that as a tokenized form and move that around much more easily. And that opens up lots more use cases for these money market funds as well.

So it turns out that this technology actually is significantly faster and cheaper than what exists. So in my opinion, that means that no matter how hard anyone pushes back or fights against it or whatever narratives there are, as we've seen the evolution of technology in the past, it's always going to air towards faster and cheaper, right? And better. I mean, obviously you talk about the collateral side is huge, obviously, but even just the fact that it's faster and cheaper. Yeah. And what we're really finding in operating across blockchains is that different blockchains offer different use cases for opportunity. Some are faster, some are cheaper, some handle big transactions better, some handle small transactions better. So when you're actually operating in the space every day, you really start to understand the richness of the ecosystem and how many opportunities there are going to be

to build out connections in many directions and create value for your business by being able to really direct your transactions to the blockchains that make the most sense for the transaction you're actually looking to execute. Right. I thought I saw your tokenized treasuries are with Stellar, correct? Well, we're on Stellar. We're on Polygon. We are coming out on additional blockchains. And this is something we see as something that should be propagated across the space. How large is the blockchain team at Franklin Templeton? How many people do you have working on this? Because what you just described does not seem easy. There's nowhere you can go look and say, what would be the best for a blockchain for a tokenized treasury, right?

So you have to do this work. How large is the team over there? I'm not exactly sure. I think it's somewhere around 20 to 40 people in the digital asset unit. But what's really, I think, exciting is that, you know, we have some of the most creative, I think, and most imaginative technologists in the world really working. These are people that could easily be at any other crypto company, but they see the advantage in hooking these worlds together. And I think that's why they're excited about being at Franklin Templeton. In your mind, what's the timeline where we really start to see this sort of make its way

into the mainstream? Obviously I think that crypto natives will continue to grow this at a, at a substantial rate, but it really happens when, you know, it goes completely mainstream in my opinion. Well, I think that you're already starting to see, I think, stable coins emerge as the first big crossover use case that starts to really engage a broader set of participants. And then I think once you get this wallet rollout system in Europe, you're seeing a lot of progress now in Hong Kong and Singapore and the UAE.

I think that within the next three years, those regions are going to really be bringing together crypto and tokenized real world assets and really operating interchangeably across those two domains. And that's when I think you really start to see it go mainstream. I mean, I'm fully convinced that by 2030, these whole discussions about whether crypto is here to stay or not, people are going to that's going to disappear. As the head of our digital asset unit likes to say at Franklin Templeton, nobody has an Internet division anymore. Right. I was going to say it disappears when you don't know that it's there. Yeah. I don't think about how my phone works. I don't think about how the internet works. I just use it.

If we're not thinking about how these products are being transferred and what's happening in the pipes, that's when we've actually reached adoption. The fact that we're even talking about NFTs or crypto or which blockchain just, to me, screams that we're exceptionally early. Yeah. Well, I think that, look, there's advantages in being early because you can see what's coming, but then it's hard to stay patient, right? And so what I always caution people is don't lose your enthusiasm because the world hasn't caught up to what you see yet. Just realize that sometimes being a visionary is a lonely place. I would add to that, don't lose your vision and belief just because the price is down.

Because I think that that's more what happens as you get to this part of the cycle. And because you're not, quote unquote, making money overnight or getting rich, you start to be dismissive of the technology and the ethos and the reason that you were here in the first place. Yeah. Don't give up. Lots to come in this space. I know you got to go in a second, but I also wanted to share that you guys have been releasing this digital assets bulletin, which I think is great. So basically, if you didn't believe

that Franklin Templeton was all in here, you guys are writing about this on a weekly basis for your clients, for everybody else. Can people check this out? And also, where will people be able to check out your 120-page-plus manifesto when that comes out? That'll be coming out hopefully in the next couple of weeks. And we do have a public website with this content.

We're really happy and excited to share it. We really want people to be understanding where the world is heading and why it's so important to be thinking about these technologies now. So I don't have the address in front of me, but we'll be sure to get it to you so you can share it with your viewers, Scott. Sure. Well, I find it really inspiring, as always, speaking with you, but the fact that you guys are so far ahead of the curve on the aspects of this industry that really matter, not just focusing on building the investment product or that spot ETF, which obviously you're in line for, but really using this stuff and being ahead of the curve in doing it. I think there's very few institutions that are that forward thinking. And I'm assuming you guys will also reap the benefits from that when this all comes to fruition. But thank you so much for everything you do. It's always a pleasure to speak with you. Always a pleasure to be here. And when you have the passion, just hang on to it. Well, ping me when the document comes out and we'll read the

entire 128 pages live for everyone. We could do like a seven-hour streaming marathon, okay? Okay, thank you. Maybe not. All right. Well, at least we can get the hot takes. Thank you so much, Sandy. Bye-bye. Thank you. Bye-bye. Awesome. So it's nice to actually have a conversation about the promise of this industry and the things that we used to get to talk about before everybody got depressed and crypto went into winter and prices were down and we're the negative part of the cycle and regulation. I think it's really important to expand your mind and remind yourself why you're here in the first place. For me, that happens with conversations like this, but it also happens every time I can get my butt

out of the United States and go see what's happening in the rest of the world. Because you guys remember a month ago when I was in Singapore for Token 2049, which is the same experience I had last year. I came back with my eyes wide open, reinvigorated all of the excitement that I had before because nobody was talking about SBF or Gary Gensler or the SEC or the crackdown. They were moving on with their lives as if there was no bear market. Their regulators were regulating. And whether you agreed with the legislation or the regulation that was coming, at least you had clarity and knew exactly what you could do and you can move forward and build. And some of the places that Sandy mentioned, obviously like Singapore, the United Arab Emirates, even Europe, even Europe are so far ahead of what we're doing here. And we're either going to catch up or we'll

just be left behind as all of this moves forward. But I'm very confident when you hear the names, JP Morgan, Franklin Templeton, BlackRock, and Fidelity, that we're going to find a way to make this a really viable asset class and to utilize this technology in the United States as well. That's my diatribe for the moment. Now it's time to bring on Texas West Capital, Christopher Inks. Look at the market. Look at some charts, man. We've had some wild days here, Chris. We've had some wild days on fake news. Exciting. What a time to be alive. I tell you what, you know, if you were sleeping before that woke you up and unfortunately pretty quickly made you wish you would just stayed to sleep. Right. But, you know, I think I'd mentioned it last week. You know, for me,

it went just a couple of hundred dollars above our target. We were looking at this potentially as a leading diagonal coming out of here. So we've got one, two, three, four, and then five. So I think that's potentially, I mean, there's the other possibility. Maybe it's a one, two, and then ABC for three, we'll get a four, and then we'll still get a five up here around 31,400, pretty close to the swing high. But right now it does look like it's a one and a two pulling back. 50% gets you around 22,300 or so. 61A gets you there at around 26,715 or so. So those are the targets I'm looking

for right now. But ultimately, you know, here we are. We're above the EQ of the range here. You know, again, just everything that we've been looking for, nothing changing, you know, bearish market structure broken on the break over here. And then we broke out even higher here. The movement here is a classic, you know, ending to a wedge, which gets you often a bit, you know, if it's a bullish wedge here, right, it gets you a throw over of the wedge resistance, and then a quick retracement right way, you know, right back down into the wedge. So I mean, you know, looking at it all, I can't see anything really right now to even really be concerned about, you know, obviously, as we talked about before, if it breaks down, it breaks down, we've got targets to the downside.

But right now, there's no reason to even be thinking about that at the moment, I think. How does this WIC play into your thinking? Obviously, the one from two days ago, we know that price was already before that news broke. It was sitting right around $28,000. It was already up 4% or 5% on the day, right? So we've seen some nice price movement. Whether that was front running the fake news that was coming or it was natural buying, who knows? Doesn't matter when you look at the day, right? So we'd seen some nice price movement, whether that was front running, the fake news that was coming or it was natural buying, who knows? Doesn't matter when you look at the chart, right? But does that huge move up and down concern you? Do you even consider that

when you know that it happened on fake news like that? No, no. The reason for it, whether it's fake news or whatever it is, at the end of the day, none of this, people a lot of times try to go, okay, well, there's wash trading going on an exchange or whatever. And that affects the analysis. It really doesn't because at the end of the day, it's still buying and selling going on. And so when we look at this wick here, all we're, all that's telling us is there was a lot of supply coming in here, which we would expect because we've got, let's try to show you here. You know, we've got all this kind of supply up in here that we hit, right? So we had supply over here.

We had supply again over here. This is resistance. I mean, we should expect to get rejected that first time. But what happens is this takes out all or at least most of these orders that were sitting in this area. And so when we push up through it again, we shouldn't have any real issue continuing to push up through it. So for me, it's clearing the way. Yeah. Clearing the runways. Exactly. We said it at the exact same time. Some people see it as a bearish move, but if you're just taking out supply and you're already in a bullish trend,

it's different. Now, if it closed all the way down at 25 or something after all that, I'd be singing a slightly different tune. I mean, I tend to agree with you here. I'm still really interested to see if we can actually take out the highs of this. That 31 level, to me, it's going to be really interesting what happens if and when we get to attack that again. Well, if we look at this, actually, uh, let me see, let me go to the weekly here, probably a better picture. So if we actually take this out right up

in here, right. Uh, what, what you can notice here is that we've got, let me kind of get this down here. So I think you, I think you might've even have tweeted it, man. We have this resistance support area right here. It comes all the way across. And so what we did is, you know, we hit it here. We hit it multiple weeks here. These are all weekly candles. And so, you know, we've hit it multiple times here. The odds are if we get up there again, this has set the stage for the movement through that area. And like I've been saying, you know, if we get through that 32,000 area right here, 31,000, 32,000, there's little, you know, in the way of these large cams spreads we've got a fair value gap up here at 37,400 so the odds are likely that we'll get a pretty strong and decent

run maybe something like this right here up through that 38 40,000 area at least on that breakout so and you know the fact we've been going sideways for seven months again the longer you go sideways the bigger and stronger the breakout of the breakdown would be. Some people are suggesting maybe a head and shoulders right here. I can see it. I'm sure I can see it. It doesn't look altogether different than the 69 up there.

But yeah, yeah. Yeah. But people might not notice is how high we were above that MA when that happened. Right. Right now, we're still really on the trend. It's different. Yeah. Yeah. And, and again, you know, another similar to what we had in this resistance support area right here, the significance of resistance support going

across, you know, we had the same thing right here. So, you know, if you think about patterns like a head and shoulders, often you're going to have minimal support at the bottom. You have enough for the, for the two bottoms, but then that's why it breaks down so hard usually afterward because you lose it and you've got big candles to go down through, right? Which, you know, kind of we had over, you know, in this area here. But, you know, again, with this major support right here, support resistance area right here, it basically, it would suggest more of a base being built here

before further rally. Accumulation, reaccumulation, right? Yeah, yeah. So, I mean, nothing going on there until it actually breaks down. And it's not a head and shoulders until it actually breaks down before the support there, the neckline. Fun idea to talk about. So one of the narratives we're seeing here, Bitcoin holds onto momentum after dress rehearsal for possible spot ETF approval. But this topic, I mean, in the chart and out is actually interesting to me because I was actually sort of the opinion and my opinions are very loosely held, but I'm

making predictions by the way. But we were sitting around 25 and I said, listen, when BlackRock first applied for the ETF, we saw a move in a week from 25 to 31. Now we're back at 25. This was before we were obviously at 28. I was saying this at 25. I said, now if we get approved, I bet we just pop right back to 31. It's like we saw exactly what the move was going to be. But we went from 28 to 30 here in minutes. And then the fact that it was fake news became very evident and we sold off. So narrative aside, I think it's clear that that would have kept going up if the news had been real and we had seen it being widely reported and it had hit mainstream. So maybe I'm changing my opinion and I'm thinking what you're thinking

here is that we're going like 35, 40 just on that news if it actually happens. But that narrative here that this was a dress rehearsal for that, kind of starting to hold water for me. Yeah, again, you know me. I don't really buy the whole news thing or whatever. Again, you can often see that the trends are already in. As we see, it's already in, right? But if there was a catalyst, that could be one.

It doesn't have to be, but yeah, if there was a catalyst, you know, that could be one. It doesn't have to be. But yeah, that would, you know, if it comes in, it seems to suggest that, you know, that it's really not priced in yet. People are really kind of waiting to see. And so if it does pop, then people jump in and kind of as we did, I think we did what, like a billion dollars in liquidations on that rally or something like that. I mean, even before it was a couple hundred million, but even before that move, they were already getting liquidated and shorts were getting squeezed on that first 4%. And it was very spot driven and not so derivative driven. So it was real buying. You know, there's a differentiation there.

I do want to draw attention to something that happened last week, which is that you said you really like Dollar General. Yeah, I had the chart. That does really look good. I'm going to go buy some, which I did, uh, just over a hundred bucks. And it took all of,

uh, a day for it to start going up. This was the next day. Yeah. Thursday. Holy crap, man. I bought it like one Oh two.

It's at one 16. That was like a 15. It was a 10% move in the one day. Yep. Yeah. I just got it. I got to come in here and let you take your credit. Look at that gap up. So listen, that was, yeah, it was a 10% move in the one day. Yep. Yeah. I just got it. I got to come in here and let you take your credit. Look at that gap up. So listen, that was, yeah, it was Thursday. You were talking about it or Wednesday. You were talking about right here down Thursday and then gapped up

and climbing. So how, how, how'd you, how'd you find that one? I guess is the question. I mean, look at that move. And this is something like catching a knife in a downtrend that hard is a talent. Yeah, well, you know, and this is one of the things that I keep talking about, you know, whether they're with us or, you know, they're just listening to me in general and social media or whatever. You know, it's this idea of understanding how to forecast, you know, and what do bottoms and tops really look like? And, you know, how do you increase the odds that you're potentially

more likely going to get it than not? And, you know, there's never any guarantees, but, you know, the setup on this itself was great. You know, it was so oversold as we talked about, everything was just, it was just set up. And even though, you know, I gave us, you know, two possibilities either, you know, I said, well, we're going sideways here and I think we're going up. And if we do, you know, we'll look here and then we'll look here kind of heading up but i said just in case if we did break down i'd look for a rally off that s1 pivot but yeah no we you know again as you see here gapped up there uh on friday and just kind of kept on pushing up there and the weekly just i mean the weekly is just starting uh rsi hasn't even broken out of oversold yet you see

all this volume down here at these lows here you got a lot of big candles here i mean we've got a fair value gap up here at what is that 123 31 and then once we do that we'll have this one up here at 152 61 so on the weekly there's just some probably some great targets there uh but you know nothing straight up straight down. And so you know, we'll rally up a bit and we'll pull back a little bit. And then you know, we'll catch a bit and rally back up and all people want to do you know, go down to that daily and look for three wave pullbacks. And you know, we're ABC kind of coming down and you break up through that second

wave and you do that. And go ahead and use that as your cue to probably go along there. Because that three wave pullback suggests it's corrective and it's going to continue on in the other direction. Um, you know, just don't put your stop losses right up the rear end of your trade. I mean, you do that. You're just size the position a little smaller and make your stop a little wider. And that's so hard for people to do because they want to be all in everything, but you know, all in a hundred times leverage, uh, you know, position size is the killer guys. It's the make or break, uh, you know, but most traders come in and, and, you know, they just kind of want to toss everything in there at once. And, um, that's not proper risk management. And you'll see that

you'll get, those are the people usually they get their stop losses hit and then they go, Oh, stop losses don't work. Well, no, you just don't know how to do it correctly yet. And that's okay. We all go through that when we first start, but it's not okay. Once you're told that that's, what's going on. It's an okay to sit there and keep's okay. We all go through that when we first start, but it's not okay. Once you're told that that's what's going on, it's not okay to sit there and keep doing it, right? You got to make that decision. Ellen Ellison didn't use stop losses. She didn't believe in them. Yeah. Oh my God. It's still my favorite reason. I tell you, man, almost 30 years of doing this, that is the absolute single best recorded reason I've ever seen, and I continue to use it as day,

of why you should use stop losses. Eight, what they were like something like, oh, what was it? $1.2 or $2 billion in the hole at one point. I mean, it was absolutely insane. You can't do that. Yeah, they were losing that. They were losing that in some days, and that was FTX customer funds. They weren't spending the funds fast enough. They had to lose it too. That's right. You got to lose it. We talked about sort of the idea that that was a dress rehearsal for a Bitcoin spot ETF approval.

I thought what else was interesting that we saw, obviously, when that happened, if we're talking about what could happen, is that we saw this is Bitcoin dominance. Guys, I will tell you once again, I'm not charting Bitcoin dominance to figure out what's going to happen with altcoins. What's happening with altcoins tells us what's happening with Bitcoin dominance. So that's just how I view it, right? I can look at my portfolio and tell you that Bitcoin dominance is going up, right? Because all my alts are dropping. But when we take a look at this, you saw on that same move that Bitcoin rose, Bitcoin dominance absolutely flew. So to me, I talked to Ben Cowan about this yesterday. A large part of that is the people that are already in this market FOMOing in and out of the narrative. Bitcoin spot ETF is going

to be approved. I have no cash. I'm selling my alts into Bitcoin. I mean, that's how this happens. It's that washing machine. But did this at all hint or what we're seeing with Bitcoin dominance? Does this at all tell you, hey, maybe now is not the time for altcoins? Maybe it's one of those Bitcoin focused sort of moments in history. Yeah. I mean, generally, I mean, if you're talking about altcoin season, you know, what we historically think of altcoin season. I think we need the move up in Bitcoin that, you know, that pop up through 32 rallying, you know, potentially into 40 or a little bit higher, whatever it happens to be there. I think we really need that to happen before. And I think that becomes maybe that final capitulation in

alts in general. Now, you know, that said, we're talking about generalities here. We're not talking about, you know, every, every, every new rose. Yeah. Yeah. So, you know, just, just to make it clear for everybody else but i mean you know this so far is following in with what what i've been charting here um i've got you know a wave five five or three here right around 54 and a quarter um that might you know it's just based off the height here of wave four so you know we could end up a little bit above a little bit below it even uh but right now still looking overall for for that higher up to go up. And at this point, if we're reaching that, 58, 60 doesn't look impossible at all. So yeah, but I think as far as an all out kind of all season thing goes, I think we got to get that big push up in Bitcoin to kind of get

everybody, okay, there. Now let's pull money out of Bitcoin and put it into alts now because now we're kind of getting, looking like maybe, maybe Bitcoin's going to continue. There's no more money to be made on Bitcoin. We have to go further down the risk curve. We know how the mentality. Right, right. Exactly, exactly. So then what do you think? So then I got to ask in that regard, what do you think of ETH? Obviously it's been in a major downtrend against Bitcoin. I mean, it seems like we kind of are right at the bottom, actually, of this range, right? I mean, we're back to these sort of lows from May of 21. I mean, to me, this is a really key area that it's in right now and we're about to go weekly oversold which happens once every two or three years so yeah no i did this this kind of like maybe then you get that dominance push this gets really pushed down into oversold and that's where we kind of align with with a big bounce like i'm not thrilled yet but this is starting to look like it could

be an area for bottoming yeah no, no, I mean, I agree. And I mean, if you look at that swing low previous there with the wick, you know, it looks like five was, I don't have the chart up there yet. Sure. But yeah, it looks like it's five waves up from that swing low there, right? Yeah, right over, right over in the bottom there, just a little bit further over. But that looks like five up. And so coming back, it's a deep pullback.

But all you've really done is you filled in those large gaps, those large, was that weekly candles there? Yeah. And you've pulled back right into that support. And so if I'm looking at it there, to me, it looks like if it's not bottom, it's pretty darn close. And the odds are that Ethereum is going to run with Bitcoin um to some extent certainly on the dollar pair you know maybe like slightly less but yeah or or it could even do a bit more because it's you know it's a theory is what it is but if we look at uh let me pull up the ethereum bitcoin chart here real quick uh yeah that was ethereum bitcoin right there so yeah yeah yeah yeah exactly and so i've got got my chart here and

I've got this kind of counting. And if we're actually looking sideways there, we're looking at the range, the volume and price action looks really great here. Again, if we look at the volume spike here on this swing low, right? And then we look at the volume over here on the low. You can see that it's much, much lower here. We're making a higher low into support on much less volume. Usually that's indicative of just no follow through, no market participation to push it lower. And as we can see here, we're just kind of at that 78.6 retracement right now. So I'm looking for a potential reversal from this area. I could see us coming down here a bit further to the S1 pivot on the weekly.

That's right there around 0.05241 or so, you know, and just kind of get us into this demand down in this wick here. But somewhere in this area, I'm looking for the likelihood of getting a, um, a reversal here. And like I said, even if Bitcoin rallies there, you know, Ethereum itself, because there's a lot of interest in it. I think I saw somewhere that a third of it,

uh, is held in, in like just a few wallets, basically. I'm sure. And so, you know, it's just going to sit there,

right? It's not getting spent. Um, and so retail kind of jumps in and it, you know, less supply there going to sit there, right? It's not getting spent. And so retail kind of jumps in and, you know, less supply there. Same thing with the talk about Bitcoin. Yeah. If supply on exchanges, I know for a fact I saw somewhere this week was at historical lows by a long shot. Yeah.

Yeah. So there's not much of this stuff being traded or certainly to sell if there's any real demand or supply on either side. Right. And again, if we're looking at the volume there, I mean, you know, we're coming to the bottom of the range, it's a previous swing. I mean, it's, it's just, it's, it's the classic setup for a strong rally back up. And so that's what I'm looking for. No, no guarantees, of course, but that's exactly what I'm looking for. And if it does, then there's little to argue with, you know, with the count that I have on there and the idea that we are going to rally up there well above 0.1 as it continues higher there. So I'm not hating it. I'm not hating it. It might

finally have its day coming up here soon. So you gave us Dollar General last week. I wasted like 20 minutes of your time asking my questions. What are you actually looking at right now? It's kind of an okay Uh, I don't think there's anything really, uh, fantastic going on. We've got, you know, again, we had the idea that, um, the DXY has hit this target area here, uh, as a flat. So looking forward to continue, you know, this is the weekly candle here, printed doji up here at the resistance. Um, so I'm looking forward to continue lower, um, you lower. Gold and silver have been great. Silver, we're still looking to get above that triangle resistance at $24.05. We can do that.

We're on our way to break out higher. Have you looked at the monthly on silver, by the way? I just happen to have had it. Have you looked at the monthly on silver? Look at the 50MA there and this candle it's putting in on it the 50 ma i've got to talk that's the monthly that's the monthly oh yeah look at that perfect putting in an incredible right now with 13 days left of course but incredible hammer with a huge green body if that prints like that man i think that thing's gonna fly yeah i mean you can see it's great support there previously with the drop and the rally back up as well. Yeah.

Right before it. Yeah. So, man. Yeah. I like that. It just kind of goes in with what we're looking at here. Gold. Gold is already broken out above its triangle resistance right here.

Wave B. We just did that this morning. It's been an awesome rally here. Fibo did great on the gold there. I know Fibo had a great trade. He's over here in the comments. Gold. Follow Chris, hit the likes. Chris, show gold and silver, bro. Come on, Chris. You hear me? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. But really, really great trades that he's had with that as well. But again,

we've done this now. So I'm looking for a new all-time high coming up here, guys. I don't see any reason not to. The bigger picture, again, is the idea that we've got this. I don't think I have it written on here, but the idea, basically, this is larger three and four here, and then this is one and two of five heading up, right? Oh, that's going to be a big move then. It's going to get you up to around $27.50 and a half. Yeah, I'm seeing a lot of consensus. Peter Brandt was talking about it when we had him on Crypto Town Hall as well.

And obviously, it does align with sort of macro narratives. But if gold makes this new high at some point here, it should just absolutely fly in price discovery. Yeah, exactly. Again, sideways, man. We've been sideways here since we made this back here in 20, here in 20, um, since we made this for, you know, this first all-time high area, uh, after 2011. Right. And so we've been going sideways now for, you know, what is this three years now? Yeah. So, you know, again, you consolidate, you get sideways thing going on, uh, in your range there, the stronger and further you're going to break out. And so we've got great setup,

I think on that as well. Yeah. I mean, it's topped three times right around 2075. And if you're paying attention, I mean, this was $1,800 two weeks ago. Yeah. In 1958, this is gold. This isn't like some random illiquid altcoin, right? This is a huge move right now already. Exactly, exactly. And, you know, so I

think, again, you know, people are going to continue to argue about things and whatnot. And I think, you know, you got, you got to, there's two things, you know, one is, as I always say, you know, do you want to be profitable or do you want to be right? You know, we'd all would love to be right and profitable, but if you absolutely have to choose, which would you rather be? Unfortunately, for most people, it's emotional thing and they'd rather be right. And we see this not just in trading, but in life, they argue till they're blue in the face. They ignore other contradictory evidence. Right. Uh, but in trading it's, you know, it's imperative that you'd rather be correct, which means, you know, you keep your, your eyes

open for new information. You know, I'm the guy who thought, okay, uh, you know, I, I, we had that target at the, you know, at the all time high from 2011, we had that from back in 2018. Um, but I thought we'd get a pullback, you know, like it'd be part of a bigger, a bigger part of a, uh, uh, uh, uh, a flat correction. And, uh, you know, then we started doing this sideways thing and I said, no, okay, no new information coming in. It does not look like that at all. Instead, it looks like the alternate we were looking at, which was three, four, we'll get a five. So you got to be willing to step up there and change your opinion on it and get going there because otherwise you're going to get stuck, right? That's really what it is. We come in thinking it's a game of making profits. It really is a game of losing because losses are inevitable. And so the better you can learn how to lose, you know, the more correctly you can learn how to lose, you know, proper risk management at all, the more successful you're going to be. And so, you know, you have to ask yourself when you're trading here, are you trading

not to lose? Are you trading to win? Right? Because it is a game of losing, but people are adverse to losing money. So they're trading not to lose, which means they have a lot of emotional input in it and they have trouble allowing their trades to run to their targets or allowing them to hit the stop losses and doing everything they should do as a trader. But yeah, man, it's great setups. I mean, honestly, long-term i think is it's just absolutely fantastic

heading up here i agree anything else uh before i let you go um let me see i think i might have a uh let me see here i think cast is looking pretty good here um you know this thing's been you know up and up and up for a while uh locally here we do have three waves back so if we break out from here if we go up here and break out above 0.0518 uh we've got an initial target at 0.062 uh and then if we can break on through that we'll look up here at 0.09482 on cast there uh let me see here do I have anything else really ape ape ape is interesting you know we've kind of made fun of that for a long time right look at this total all the way back to where that talk about a round trip man painful round trip right if you bought up in here um but this is the weekly here as you can see we've got that great looking hammer candle here down at the bottom

uh you know on support there so a pin bar on support and we've got this bullish engulfing candle going right now uh let me see what some monthly look like here. Monthly is not really showing us much. Monthly is looking all right here. We can see how this monthly is possible that we could be bottom here. So right here, I would have a target up here toward this 1.27 area. If we can break out through that, I think we look good to 1.675. You know, and then if we can break out through that, continue to break up through there and through this 2.10 or so,

I think we've got a good potential rally up here to around $3. So some potential on there. I don't think it happens overnight. I don't think it's going to be a quick, fast candle. But Lord help you if you held that entire way uh hoping it would go up it's just been an awful awful you know round trip like you said and it's like every every chart though sadly so yeah yeah so some potential on there you know awesome man well thank you so much i know we got to run now approaching 10 o'clock guys everybody please follow chris tx west capital

on twitter you can go hang out in discord with him and Fibbo Swanny, who apparently had an amazing gold call. If you guys didn't see there in the comments and Chris talking about it. So I highly, highly, highly recommend that Chris man. Thank you so much as always guys. I will see you all back tomorrow and we'll see Chris.

See you in a week, man. Thank you. Thanks everyone. I'll take care. Bye. tomorrow and we'll see Chris see you in a week man thank you thanks everyone take care