The Wolf Of All Streets - The Money Printer Is Back (The Fed Pumps The Market) l Paul Barron

Starting point is 00:00:00 In the FOMC meeting yesterday, Jerome Powell was surprisingly dovish and the Fed is seemingly planning to cut interest rates by roughly 0.75% in 2024. That implies that the money printer is back on and it seems like markets, especially risk assets, are loving it because everything is pumping. I'm going to discuss this and so much more with my friend Paul Barron today. And of course, we've got Dan, chart guys at the back end to share some charts and ideas for what he thinks is happening with the market. You guys don't want to miss this one. Let's go. what is up everybody i'm scott melker also known as the wolf of all streets before we get started please subscribe to the channel and hit that like button i'm just going to go ahead and bring paul straight on so we can maximize our time here paul are you surprised at all by what Jerome Powell had to say there?

Starting point is 00:01:11 I was a little bit surprised, but obviously considerably pleased. But I think he's kind of in a bad spot right now and trying to adjust on two ends of the candle at the same time. Yeah, I agree. So this is what we're talking about specifically. Fed dot plot shows central bank will cut interest rates by 0.75% in 2024. Currently, they kept it at 5.25 to 5.5. That implies we'll get down to about 4.6% next year. Now, listen, we all know that predictive markets have been terrible. The Fed dot plot is never accurate. One thing breaks, this could change massively. Or if they start to see inflation rise, this could change massively. But I don't think anybody really expected him to even change his tone at all, say things like, it seems like our cycle's coming to an end. I mean, this is pretty bullish, especially because the expectation,

Starting point is 00:01:56 certainly what my guests largely have said is there would never be a pivot unless something broke. This implies they could pivot without anything breaking at all. Yeah. Well, I think there's a couple of things though that are working in there. He said two things yesterday that I thought were very, very telling. One, of course, was that they were willing to even talk about a rate cut. That was a big issue that I felt kind of hit at home. And then the other thing is when you look at the job situation right now, I think that's the one factor that's still lagging. We're still getting new data in, obviously January and March will be the critical ones in terms of the job reports, especially after year end data and sales come in. But I think you're going to see some slowing in

Starting point is 00:02:40 the markets around retail sales that will of course of course, affect jobs. And that, I think, is one of the things that Powell looks for in terms of data. Yeah, I tend to agree with you. We had BlackRock come out and say that this Fed pause is a green light for investors, right? The quote, I believe, exactly. The bullish sentiment can go on for a while, at least until we get a new round of economic data. And until then, the message is clear. The Fed is more than willing to see an easing in financial conditions. That's from Black Rock fund manager Jeffrey Rosenberg. Honestly, man, I start to get cautious when I hear everybody flipping bullish, even the bears at this point, right? It's like nothing could possibly go wrong.

Starting point is 00:03:20 Dow Jones, I think, didn't make an all-time high yesterday. QQQ, I mean, NASDAQ and S&P, they're right there. But I also remember at the top of the last Bitcoin cycle, when we went from 65 and corrected and went to 69, we made a new high. We were going up forever and we dropped down below 16,000. Yeah. Well, Dixie is down dramatically. You saw the red candles on that. I mean, when you see the dollar start to really move in that direction, risk assets are pretty one of the big catches. But the other thing too, Scott, $5 trillion right now setting on the sidelines in terms of investment capital. This is capital that is poised and ready to go. Not new market money, not new investors, people that have basically pulled back from the market and have kind of put themselves in a holding pattern with these money market funds. So that I think is going to

Starting point is 00:04:09 be a big trigger. That statement from BlackRock is, hey, I think it's kind of the green light to all their customers just said, hey, okay, everybody, we're ready to go now. You can stop parking. I know, we're ready to go now. It just seems like crazy to deploy right at the all-time highs again when there's still some shaky economic data out there. But like I said, it just, it makes me cautious. But Powell, are we to believe now that he is actually likely orchestrated this soft landing? I mean, he did say there's still recession possible in 2024. Yeah, I think he was still cautious. But the typical scenario that plays into that,

Starting point is 00:04:46 two things really hit home for me, again, is the jobs numbers are going to still be, I think, the critical number going forward. And if we continue to see credit going down like what we have seen overall in the last 60 days, that could indicate further softening on the inflation number, which is exactly where Powell's been trying to go, is just continue that track down. Does that mean we'll get multiple potential retractions in terms of the Fed fund rate next year? I think even though a lot of people are looking at that, I'm not as bullish as a multi-cut year. I'm a little bit more conservative on what I think is going to happen next year. Yeah, I don't understand why they would cut at all, to be quite honest.

Starting point is 00:05:26 What's the impetus to cut if things are good at this level? Exactly. That's their belief. I'm not saying things are actually good because when you dig into the data, it's not that great for the individual, certainly on Main Street. But if unemployment is low and inflation is coming down, why would they cut at all? Why wouldn't they just stay, pause, let the bond market do it? I mean, listen, the bond market's seeing yields drop from 5% to sub 4%. That's going to be more impactful than anything rate cuts are going to do. It's

Starting point is 00:05:58 doing the job for them. Yeah. I think this is a slow step process. We're not going to see anything major run. My one concern is a political event. And that is if we're going to see something that could cause the Fed to pivot, because really that's essentially what we would need is some event. And that's the one thing I think we have to watch for, because that could be the component that really looks at a retracement back in the market, including on the S&P, which I think is the one everybody's watching right now. Yeah, totally agree. Now pivoting, this is a really interesting story. I thought JP Morgan says Ether will likely outperform Bitcoin next year. This is one of my favorite narratives.

Starting point is 00:06:40 For months, I've been saying Ethereum has unnecessary FUD. It's underperforming. I think that's an opportunity. I think that Ethereum will do exceptionally well. Whether it will outperform, I don't know. But to me, it does look bottomed against Bitcoin, like it is bottoming. Do you think that Ether will likely outperform Bitcoin next year? And after that, I want to talk about what could outperform Ether.

Starting point is 00:07:05 I think, yeah, I think it does edge Bitcoin Bitcoin mainly because it hasn't had much of a run. But one thing that's happening right now, Scott, you know, we have a consulting business and we work with a lot of Fortune 500 companies. Over the last two years, there's been quite a bit of activity around getting ready for trying to integrate more blockchain. In the last 60 days, that business has really heated up. So it tells me that Main Street is starting to think about blockchain. And if we're going to think about blockchain, you've got to look at, as Raul says, Raul Pal, the everything code. Ethereum is going to be, I think, one of the major players in that. And I won't say easily outperform Bitcoin, but it's due, it's ready at this point.

Starting point is 00:07:51 Yeah. And it happens every cycle regardless at some point. I can't say that for the timing, but to believe that Ethereum is dead and never going to bounce on the Ethereum Bitcoin pair is just nonsense, right? And so to me, it becomes an opportunity when you start hearing that it will never overperform again. But you kind of just hinted, you talked about Raoul Pal. So I've had him on lately. I've seen he's definitely been on his roadshow on a lot of shows and his topic is Solana, right? So this gives us the opportunity, I think, to talk about Ethereum versus the other layer ones. Ethereum and everything in that ecosystem really has been the core of the last cycle. You know, all the ICOs and last two cycles, even everything being built there. But it seems like there's a pivot in narrative, certainly to Solana.

Starting point is 00:08:36 But now, even in the last few weeks to AVAX, Cosmos, it seems like everybody's getting their attention. Yeah, Solana is I mean, we're very bullish on Solana just in terms of the projects. We've had a lot of the variations of their teams on, including many of the support mechanisms like Phantom Wallet, et cetera. But I think Solana is a very strong asset. Don't get me wrong. Obviously, we'll see continued. Breakpoint was amazing.

Starting point is 00:09:04 We talked to Hive M mapper we've had quite a few of the projects that came out of breakpoint on the show i like the ecosystem and i like the infrastructure and a lot of the utility uh in terms of it does it outperform ethereum again probably yes at this point mainly because of just its ecosystem you mentioned mentioned Avalanche. Avalanche, I think, has one edge right now on Solana, and that's the gaming ecosystem that they're building right now, which is pretty aggressive. Really? I haven't dug so deeply into that. And in my mind, the gaming narrative was still squarely in Solana's court. Certainly, that sort of was the emerging narrative before the last bear market on Solana, right?

Starting point is 00:09:46 You had Star Atlas and all these other kind of huge theoretical AAA games, and they were all going to Solana because it was so fast and so cheap. And now with Fire Dancer, it seems like it's only going to get faster and cheaper and more secure. Yeah, I mean, I think each of these chains have kind of their winners in terms of their lead games. But you look at the subnet architecture of what Avalanche is doing and just the tech. I think it's still a very strong player. I don't know if it outperforms Solana or not, but I think both of them are really good hedges. If you're trying to, you know, look at other layer ones versus Ethereum. If you're trying to kind of,'re trying to sprinkle your portfolio out a little bit and not to get too heavy or weighted into one particular area like Ethereum.

Starting point is 00:10:32 Yeah. My view in the last bull market, when I would go on shows like this and they would say, how should you invest? I would say just buy a couple of the main layer ones because you'll capture the value of anything that's built on it. And then you don't have to go down the risk curve trying to find that single killer app or token on that blockchain that's going to get you the 100x just by the infrastructure, basically. But it's interesting to see the same exact narrative now coming into this bull market. Oh, for sure. Yeah. Lots of movement in the space too. Follow the people as well, because I think we're going to see some big jobs start to open up and maybe some Web2 people start to make their way into some of these layer ones that I think could could indicate some pretty significant movement into the corporate sector in terms of business starting to use these these layer ones for sure. Are you seeing a lot of

Starting point is 00:11:23 adoption of the sort of private blockchain side of avalanche i mean obviously we're seeing companies private blockchains like a jp morgan onyx that has nothing to do with any of it right they're doing it themselves but the original pitch sort of avalanche was that you could get the advantage of the main layer one but you could build something private that was completely separate but uh you know like i said sort of was powered by avalach yeah i think if we're going to see business come to uh the blockchain the opportunity here is going to be in a handful of chains out there in terms of growth and the ones who have the most mature ecosystem the most mature management team, because when you look at Fortune 500 or Fortune 2500, they're looking at these kind of major issues before they make a decision. And everybody

Starting point is 00:12:14 asked me, well, is this going to be the last bull run? I think we are in a phase right now, and Raoul Pal talks about this a lot on the Solana ecosystem is this just becomes where it's kind of like the internet and, you know, software eats the earth. I feel like blockchain is in that phase right now. And the key here is going to be how quickly some of these major companies start to adopt this. And if they go for private chains, all right, well then, you know, you've got Avalanche in the wings there and you've got a good team. You know, if you look at John Woo and his team, and he's starting to piece together a very interesting group. But totally, hey, this is not, you can't throw him out with the dishwater either. He's doing a great job.

Starting point is 00:12:53 And I think that if we really get adoption, there's going to be more than enough business and opportunity for everybody. Oh, without a doubt. Yeah, it is. We don't have enough capacity or even scalability right now to even deal with mainstream business tokenizing everything. So we've got a lot of work to be done, especially in this bull run. I think these next two years will be very pivotal on the future of blockchain in general. I agree. I have to bring up something really quick because this is sort of breaking. I started seeing it right before the show, and I just want to give people a warning who are watching that there's been a seemingly exploit with the Ledger Connect Kit, which basically means that people think they're

Starting point is 00:13:37 connecting to dApps and are getting drained. This is a pretty big deal. I would stay off of Web3 dApps and connecting your wallets to anything for the moment. Have you seen this at all? I wasn't even trying to bring it up to you, but I'm just seeing it happen. Yeah, the research team hit me this morning. They're pretty active on the early morning wires and saw that on Ledger. Ledger just doesn't need more heat right now with what their situation is. The wallet business is definitely heating up. Listen, this is going to be good for Coinbase. Coinbase is going to continue

Starting point is 00:14:11 to dominate, especially in people who are not afraid to leave their tokens on exchanges, though I don't recommend that. Yeah. If you were going to, though, that would probably be the one that you would tell people is safest at this point, certainly in the United States. Assuming you can attach a YubiKey and do all of the extra security measures. Yep. I got to say, and I'm certainly a self-custody maximalist, but every day those lines come closer to intersecting where the risk of self-custody starts to meet the risk of certain centralized exchanges if you know how to do it and you avoid the exploits that are inevitable Scott, do you think we're going to see, when we see new money coming in, people who've just have affected people with self-custody or the very simple losing your keys situations. Scott, do you think we're going to see when we see new money coming in, people who've just now invested in crypto for the first time, bought their first Bitcoin, maybe they go down and they get into an Ethereum investment. Do you feel like they would use self-custody? Do you feel like that

Starting point is 00:15:21 would be something they would even- I think it's going to become marginalized because I think that the people who scream about it are still like kind of the same ones in our echo chamber. And as it gets bigger, it's going to be very hard to educate the mainstream. I would say your average person who just buys Bitcoin or Ethereum is doing it as an investment and doesn't even know self-custody exists. That would be my guess. And then we're going to get the ETF and everybody's screaming about buying the ETF instead of Bitcoin. I just think that the majority of people who come in are going to have to go pretty far down the rabbit hole before they're even going to consider self-custody this time. There's going to be so many people and they're going to be coming in through so many

Starting point is 00:15:56 sort of traditional rails rather than the ones we're used to. Yeah. Do you tend to agree with that? Yeah. Okay. Yeah. We see it quite a bit because we do get a lot of new people coming to our channel. But at the same time, we watch, we're partnering with Tangent, but I see the number of people clicking on those self-custody wallets. And it's pretty impressive to see the interest level. I just think it's still, it's very early. And obviously we haven't seen retail enter the market. So that I think will be a big tell on whether self-custody becomes a major issue for the next step. But you got

Starting point is 00:16:36 Fidelity, BlackRock, all these companies that are traditional finance moving in, banks eventually will be moving in this direction. So I think that's the bigger competition for self-custody as it goes forward. I agree. Now, this is the other huge story. It's being reported, but I don't know if people understand the gravity of it. FASB publishes new crypto rules that will let firms use fair value accounting. Just for the very quick background, we all remember when Michael Saylor put Bitcoin on the balance sheet of MicroStrategy, a couple companies followed Tesla, Square, of course. But then even though Michael Saylor sat down with 2000 CFOs, nobody else did it. It was sort of the big disappointment of the last major cycle. And the reason for that was gap accounting rules. Basically, if you were a company

Starting point is 00:17:20 and you're reporting quarterly, whatever the lowest price Bitcoin was at, at any point during that quarter is what you had to report. It destroyed your earnings. Nobody in their right mind would take the risk on an asset that volatile if they had to market down to effectively the worst price. Well, now you get to market to the actual price at the time of reporting, which means a lot of companies, now we don't know if there's demand, but now they can do it if they choose to. The question is demand, right? Yeah. Yeah. I think treasuries, if you look at it, I do a weekend membership program where we talk to a lot of high net worth individuals that are mostly business owners. And this has always been the biggest issue with them is the FASB rules. But this changes things quite a bit.

Starting point is 00:18:06 You're looking at $18 trillion just in the top Fortune 500 in the U.S. that is essentially open game now. And I think this could be a big factor, especially going forward. Here's the key. When you have traditional finance normalizing what's happening with these ETFs, when we get an ETF passed, I think that is a trigger to start making CEOs and CFOs to start saying, maybe this is an option here. Right. As I think about this in real time, at the time that this happened, we were in a Zerp environment, like zero interest rates. There was

Starting point is 00:18:40 no benefit to buying a treasury. So people really were much more willing, I think, mentally to buy Bitcoin thinking that they could effectively see appreciation versus inflation. Until just the last few days, rates have been so high that I would have been very surprised to see a company, even with the new rules, buy Bitcoin instead of just buying a 5% yielding treasury. But now we get this perfect storm. Now we're getting this perfect storm. ETF approval coming, halving coming, interest rates going down, and the rules aligning for them to do this. Yeah. And all this happens in 2025. So this triggers in 25. And if you think about skating to where the puck is going to be, think about how investors are looking at that. We're talking 18 months away. Yeah. Once again, I'm catching myself so bullish on everything again, and it's starting to worry me. Don't fall for it. Don't fall for it. It's just not that. It's just the bear case

Starting point is 00:19:38 starts to erase. And when it becomes so consensus, it worries me that I'm missing something. Exactly. Can I be missing something? Is there something I could be missing here? Like the only thing I'm missing, I think, is some black swan or an ETF gets rejected. Yeah, I think that hits pretty hard. But again, I think to your point, a black swan, the biggest concern I have is the political landscape for next year, 2024. It's going to get heated. And also just our situation right now out of Ukraine and China, even though it feels like things are wrapping up within Ukraine, but I'm still concerned that global conflict would cause a little bit of a rub on the markets. Yeah, it's just too euphoric right now.

Starting point is 00:20:26 Speaks to you of the guy who could ruin it all. SEC Chair Gary Gensler doesn't want to talk about crypto securities. He was really testy. They were having a meeting about the US treasury markets and somebody dared ask him about crypto, which by the way, seems to generally be his favorite topic. So I don't think that they were out of line by doing so. This is what he said. The 26 trillion treasury market, which is really the base of our entire capital markets. It's how we fund our government. It's how our Federal Reserve does monetary policy. It's how we maintain the dollar dominance around the globe. And you want to ask me about crypto? Then he said, what are your priorities? The US treasury market is a very consequential, very important market. Crypto securities are not only

Starting point is 00:21:02 much smaller. It's not how we fund our government, it's not how we conduct monetary policy. And for many investors, they've been harmed in that market. And they're being harmed because there's too much noncompliance. It's not just noncompliance with securities law, it's noncompliance with a raft of other laws. I mean, he got his shots in. Oh, yeah. But usually he would have taken this as his opportunity. And now he really does not want to hear it. Well, I think he's been berated and attacked pretty heavily during the CTF and a lot of the meetings. I mean, you look at the amount of meeting flow that he's been taking, just the SEC in general. They've probably had enough of this kind of situation. And, you know, under the circumstance, I kind of agree

Starting point is 00:21:45 with him of what's more important at the moment in terms of what's happening with the Fed and just globally, you know, on the US dollar position. But at the same time, when you think about where crypto is going, it's the innovation of our lifetime. This is the next century of growth. So there's so much opportunity there for he, the SEC, to truly see how business is going to grow. And in reality, remember the SEC covers the open markets, every IPO, every public company, that's innovation and growth. And you're talking about one of the, it's like if someone came to you and said, well, what's up with this internet in 1996? That's the kind of you would be dismissive. That makes sense. I'm just saying that he's made it his calling card. That's where he spent his money hiring, you know, new resources and new staff.

Starting point is 00:22:34 So for him to then pretend like it's off limits to ask about crypto to me seems nonsensical. I understand what you're saying in a vacuum, but he has a particular bent against this industry and generally loves to talk about it. And like I said, he's kind of the one in control of the ETF here. And we've seen Bitcoin ETF applicants will have to bend the knee on cash redemption model. Now, I had Matt Hogan from Bitwise. He said, any spot ETF is a good ETF. Stop overthinking it. Right. But it does seem that we're down to the nitty gritty and nuance

Starting point is 00:23:05 of how these things might get approved and which applicants are doing it the way that the SEC is going to insist. Yeah, I would agree. I think any spot is going to be a positive and the nuances that are starting to come to the table right now, these are last minute, you know, shuffles to try to get this thing across the line. So I'm not as worried about that because I think the SEC, whether it's BlackRock or you look at what's happening with Fidelity or even, you know, Kathy Wood's group, there's a lot of opportunity here, I think, for a positive, you know, outcome in January. If we're going to get a positive outcome in January, what do you think the marketing campaign is going to be like when 12

Starting point is 00:23:45 filers are all battling for limited AUM all at once? If we do get that perfect storm, everybody approved at once, let them fight in the arena scenario. Listen, Google just made a move to approve crypto, basically ETF marketing. And it's funny that they did this to start in January. So this is something that I think a lot of the major advertisers, you're going to see ETF marketing on slots like nothing we've ever seen before. So that's good for crypto in general. But at the same time, I think we're going to see a lot of competition, a lot of price pressure in terms of Bitcoin, especially. I think that's going to be the tell sign. Do we see market exit out? Because there's a lot of

Starting point is 00:24:31 people, remember, this is OG money. And do they take some of their profits at this point and look for the next downturn and the next ride up into the bull market? So a lot of interesting plays getting ready to happen in the next 30 days. Well, a couple of Super Bowls ago, we were watching Larry David and Coinbase bouncing QR codes. And we had that massive FTX, right? Pushed crypto.com, blockchain, whichever one it was, Matt Damon, Be Bold, whatever. We saw this huge slew. Well, what if this year we're seeing a bunch of Super Bowl commercials, but they're from BlackRock and Fidelity, and they're around an ARK, and they're around spot ETFs? Yeah. Listen, that mainstreams it right there. I think that puts it to where

Starting point is 00:25:18 anyone on Main Street is looking at this as a viable asset class now. And this is the thing that will propel this into the 12th market sector. I think this is the thing that will make it or break it. So it's a big deal. It's a big deal. Not necessarily for the immediate price impact, but for the future of where this market's going to go. Let's hope it gets approved. Paul, where can everybody follow you? I was on Paul's show just last week. So it's fun to be able to reciprocate and not have to think as much. You know, you have to do the thinking this time and all the answering and the hot takes.

Starting point is 00:25:52 I love it. Yeah. Now you can find us just at paulbarrennetwork.com or just over search Paul Barren Network on YouTube. It's very easy. Incredible, Paul. I hope you'll come back. I'm glad we got to do this.

Starting point is 00:26:02 I'm glad I got to flip flip sides. Always a lot of fun to interact with you and have these conversations. Guys, please follow Paul down in the description, his ex, and you can find everything else from there. Thank you, Paul. See you. Awesome. Awesome. I think we went through a lot there. This exploit I'm going to be digging a lot more into after this because it seems extremely concerning. And as Paul said, man, ledger does not need any more bad news. I'm hoping this doesn't spread beyond that. But now I want to bring on Dan from ChartGuys. We've actually, we got a little bit of exciting price action this morning. As I was on here, we had this hour Bitcoin candle drop from $43.1 all the way to $41.4 and then bounce right back up.

Starting point is 00:26:43 Yeah. I mean, I was surprised at the, well, I guess not surprised at the lack of liquidity, surprised at the reaction. I mean, that's a reaction to the jobs numbers. And we saw a little bit of a dip in the metals and a tiny dip in the market, but way more in Bitcoin. And we're just keeping an eye out for the possibility that a Bitcoin daily lower high is the most likely scenario to tighten up a bit, maybe into next week over the weekend. And that may be shaping up right now, but altcoin bulls love a sideways Bitcoin if that dominance chart is dropping. And we've been talking about it for five, six weeks that

Starting point is 00:27:15 weekends are for the altcoin bulls while Bitcoin does that sideways move. So potentially shaping up for another one of those this coming weekend. Can you give us a look at your Bitcoin chart? Show us that lower high you're talking about. Sure thing. So yeah, just the daily timeframe and just the size of the drop significant enough where it's possible that we set this daily lower high and just tighten up and there wouldn't be anything wrong with that. And as we've talked about in past weeks, I'm still remaining a little bit cautious until we see the weekly pullback. You know, we see ETH, this drop on the daily was enough to start this weekly consolidation. And I personally am way more

Starting point is 00:27:56 comfortable looking long in swing trades when we've got a little weekly higher low nearby to be going off of and potentially a weekly bull flag, which a number of alts have done already. But Bitcoin has yet to do that. So just keeping my mind open, reminding myself essentially, okay, we've been going straight up for nine weeks now. We have not seen weekly consolidation. It won't surprise us when it happens. And yeah, again, just looking for some sideways daily range into the weekend, potentially shaping up. Right. On the tail of FOMC, what are you thinking about stocks right now? As we were talking about, Dow Jones, all-time high. S&P, NASDAQ, they're right there. Bears haven't really come in. And Powell, for the first time, sort of jawboned his way to a pretty bullish case.

Starting point is 00:28:41 Yeah. I mean, ever since the low, again, for me, I've just been saying this is unusual price action. We don't want to be fighting this momentum because just the magnitude of the strength and our hourly oversold straight into continuation, we were just trading as if we were already in blue sky. And I have a lot of experience trading in blue sky breakouts, thanks to crypto and cannabis and the broader market. And so I'm recognizing that these are all the little characteristics of blue sky. I'm not fighting this momentum. Yes, it's extended.

Starting point is 00:29:16 And my mantra has been being extended is not a good enough reason to shorten this market. You have to have another reason. There has to be a level nearby or something, because the bulls are screaming to us, and they have been for five or six weeks, believe us. And it's only the people that are saying, yeah, I see you market, but fundamentals, or I don't believe you. And they're getting beat up because of it. So I am believing the bulls and we have so much space to work with for a daily higher low. The S&P 500 has gone straight up on the weekly. We got a weekly higher low space. So don't fight blue sky bulls. Oh man, it's crazy. My favorite blue sky breakout right now, I got to find it now, is in crypto is Injective because I've been yelling about it. I don't know if you've seen

Starting point is 00:29:54 this chart, but man, it's the first altcoin I've seen that's made a new all-time high from the last cycle and just absolutely blasting off. I've been trading it kind of the whole way up. Absolutely loving it because I held it through that entire thing as an investor, by the way. Nice. A core position. I don't know if that's nice because I could have probably done better with it. But this is what you're talking about, guys. We're talking about make a new all-time high, just push through it. Maybe you get the retest of that for a trade, but this is where you want to be because there's no such thing as resistance above those. Give extra attention to names near all-time highs. Absolutely. We talk about risk reward when looking at trades. Your reward is

Starting point is 00:30:31 so much greater for the possible reward when you're in price discovery and blue sky breakout. It's just the place to be as a bull. So anything near blue sky, make extra attention to whatever that asset is, whether it's crypto or anything, just watch blue sky, make extra attention to whatever that asset is, whether it's crypto, anything, just watch blue sky breakout. So you're not afraid to buy stocks here? I was definitely buying more yesterday. I mean, right now today, I'm not buying. I need at least hourly consolidation. But the way to buy these kinds of markets to not be chasing is what I call the back burner, which is just first five-minute oversold conditions marks an hourly high or low. First hourly oversold conditions marks a daily

Starting point is 00:31:11 high or low. We got a video on YouTube. If you just Google chart guys back burners, I explain this strategy in depth. It's the strategy where I have made the most money in trading easily by far because again, it's being able to capitalize on a breakout FOMO market, but being able to position in good risk reward entries because you're entering on consolidation. Is there anything else you're specifically looking at right now in this environment? I'm loving that the dollar's confirming the weekly bear flag, as you briefly touched upon with the previous guest, and looking at really just laggards. And so the laggard sectors right now that are leading the way up are IWM, ARKK, Jets, the airliners, the biotech sector,

Starting point is 00:31:52 but there's still names out there that are still junk. And so a name like Disney, Disney is trying to confirm the first weekly uptrend in something like years. And so I'm looking at Disney PENN gambling stock has the same setup as Disney. Again, it's trying for the first weekly uptrend after just being crushed all for two years. So essentially just looking at the most beat up things that haven't run yet and watching for them to get their turn and get some attention. Makes a lot of sense. I mean, I don't know how much more we need to talk about. It just looks like everything is extremely bullish. I don't know if there's any more specific names you want to share. If that's what you got,

Starting point is 00:32:32 I mean, everything looks bullish to me. It's making me cautious. It's so bullish. Definitely. So this is an important point. Being cautious is absolutely a-okay in this kind of environment because everybody's getting on one side of the boat now, that doesn't mean short. That means being protective. That means not buying and chasing. Perfectly a-okay. Don't confuse that with, I should be shorting here because everybody's long. Because again, if you're trying to short a blue sky market, it's going to hurt you a lot more than you win. And so this is the kind of environment where I'm trimming some profits and looking for consolidation to potentially add back and things like that. But don't, just be really careful short. You don't need to nail the top. One thing I always say is bears are

Starting point is 00:33:15 not sneaky. We see their high volume. We see major sectors dropping together. And so the bears will show us, hey, we're back. And we'll be able to say, oh, this is the first time that the bears have done this. The NASDAQ bears have not confirmed an hourly downtrend in at least a week or a week and a half. So if that doesn't happen, nothing's changing. When it happens for the first time, we say, okay, this is the first time it's happened in X period of time. Now it can get our attention. We don't have to nail the top to make money as a bear if things are going to shift. Yeah. I mean, I'm just quickly like cooking through these for some reason.

Starting point is 00:33:50 It won't show that way. Here we go. I mean, SPY all-time high 479. We're at 472. QQQ, which is Invesco all-time high 408.71. We're at 405.16 opened and going up. I mean, these things, either we're going to get rejected at all-time highs or these things are just about to go. If you adjust for dividends, we're already at all-time highs. I look at both. Generally,

Starting point is 00:34:14 I adjust because I view that as an artificial change in the price. But yeah, that definitely level is still to pay attention to because if you're in blue sky, you got no resistance to look at. So I switch from adjusted, all all right we haven't adjusted all time high and then i take adjusted off and look at those levels that you just mentioned perfect love it man well guys everybody follow chart guys of course down uh link down below everything i would go check that back burner video i'm gonna go do that right after this i really want to watch that i think that that's a great advice really gives you some hints as to what might be coming. I'm taking all of next week off to hang out with the kids. So I'll see you in two weeks, man. Awesome. Sounds good. See you, Scott.

Starting point is 00:34:52 All right. And everybody else, I'll be here back tomorrow with Nathaniel Whittemore for the Friday Let's go.

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