The Wolf Of All Streets - The SEC Is Dead! Alt Season Begins? James Murphy, David Silver & Eric Krown

Episode Date: July 14, 2023

Join James Murphy, David Silver & Eric Krown as we discuss the main news of this week - Ripple's win over SEC and the subsequent market rally.  James Murphy: https://twitter.com/MetaLawMan David Silver: https://twitter.com/dcsilver Eric Krown: https://www.youtube.com/@EricKrownCrypto ►►MELD MELD will bring to bear the full power of decentralized financial instruments to the masses. Banks are at the heart of the economy, MELD will become a new set of banking tools that are by the people and for the people. 👉 https://www.meld.fi/early-access-apply?source=crypto_banter ►►OKX Sign up for an OKX Trading Account then deposit & trade to unlock mystery box rewards of up to $60,000!  👉 https://www.okx.com/join/SCOTTMELKER  ►►THE DAILY CLOSE BRAND NEW NEWSLETTER! INSTITUTIONAL GRADE INDICATORS AND DATA DELIVERED DIRECTLY TO YOUR INBOX, EVERY DAY AT THE DAILY CLOSE. TRADE LIKE THE BIG BOYS. 👉 https://www.thedailyclose.io/   ►►NORD VPN  GET EXCLUSIVE NORDVPN DEAL - 40% DISCOUNT! IT’S RISK-FREE WITH NORD’S 30-DAY MONEY-BACK GUARANTEE. PROTECT YOUR PRIVACY! 👉 https://nordvpn.com/WolfOfAllStreets   ►►COINROUTES TRADE SPOT & DERIVATIVES ACROSS CEFI AND DEFI USING YOUR OWN ACCOUNTS WITH THIS ADVANCED ALGORITHMIC PLATFORM. SAVE TONS OF MONEY ON TRADING FEES LIKE THE PROS! 👉 http://bit.ly/3ZXeYKd  ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEK DAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/   Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://twitter.com/scottmelker   Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.io   Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe   Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c   #Bitcoin #Crypto #Trading The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

I'm going to tell you a quick story. Yesterday, we were preparing for Crypto Town Hall, our Twitter spaces, and we had Ryan Selkis joining and we were going to go over his 97 thread thesis on what was going to happen in the back half of the year. About 30 minutes before Crypto Town Hall, Alex Mashinsky was arrested. We had this, oh crap moment, we need to book new guests, talk about Alex Mashinsky, get Celsius insiders. And then about 20 or 30 minutes into that very Twitter spaces, we got the news very briefly in one sentence that Ripple, that was considered not a security on secondary sale. And as we were on Twitter spaces,

dug in further and further. What a day it was yesterday. And we're still absorbing the news of this massive victory, at least in my eyes, of Ripple over the SEC, putting the SEC once again on the ropes, continuing to get beaten down by the justice system. But of course, when it comes to legal cases and the justice system, I don't know very much. So I bring on the people that do. We've got Metta Lawman James Murphy today, and of course, David Silver, my favorite two lawyers who hopefully I will never have to personally hire. I've also got Eric Crown on the back end to talk about what this means for the markets and to look at some charts. It's going to be a massive show today,

guys. Let's go. to the channel and has a knee-jerk reaction to hit the like button at this point. But it feels like if you're going to YouTube, you're contractually obligated to say both of those things. Absolutely massive day, guys. Of course, we have a very hyperbolic title. The SEC is dead. Alt season begins. I don't know if either of those things are true, but it's really good to be able to dance on Gary Gensler's temporary grave, at least for one day. And I'll take what I can get. Of course, we have the Bitcoin maps he's poo-pooing us. Some lawyers saying this isn't really a win for Ripple, saying that it will be appealed, it will go to the Supreme Court. The premise is false. The judge got it wrong. But when have we ever in history of all time on this spinning

rock that we live on ever had consensus over a legal decision by any judge ever. I think that maybe the lawyers today will agree with me, but it'll be interesting. Maybe we'll have pushback and they won't, but I'm going to bring them on right now because nobody wants to hear me talk about the law. I've got James Murphy, Metta Lawman, and of course, David Silver. David, you're like in a different place every time we talk. It's amazing. Yeah, I'm sitting in the bathroom at the Four Seasons in Maui right now. Weren't you in Alaska like two weeks ago or something?

I think I got my earphones on. I'm good now. Okay. David, that's hardcore. What time is it where you are? 3 a.m. 1 a.m. 3 a.m.

I flew in yesterday, so I'm still on East Coast time. That's hardcore. Okay. Well, welcome from Alaska. He's going to every state not connected to the continental United States. He's on a grand tour of Hawaii and Alaska. He probably can't hear us right now, I can tell. So, James, let's start talking.

Is this a win? Let's just start right there. Is this a win? Was this unexpected? What is it? It was a huge win, very big day for the XRP community, anybody who owned XRP. You know, the stakes, Scott, were enormous because if the court had ruled that XRP is an unregistered security, think about that for a moment. That means all of the individuals, all of the hedge funds that own XRP are now in possession of an unregistered security, which would be illegal to sell to anyone else. And when I say illegal, a crime to sell to anyone else. So what is the value of something that is illegal to sell to anyone? It's zero. So huge day for XRP, the XRP community, huge day for Larson and Garlinghouse. All of their sales are in the clear. And a very important ruling, it will probably be

appealed, but the finding that when the Larson and Garlinghouse sell on an exchange and when Ripple itself sells on an exchange, that's not a securities transaction. That pretty much puts everybody in the clear who has no affiliation at all with Ripple. Any miscellaneous investor is good unless this case gets reversed on appeal. Right. And you made the point on a previous show, not only would those people be holding something that's value is zero, every time they've sold it retroactively, they would have been breaking the law. That's true. Whether that case would ever have been prosecuted is doubtful, but there's a willfulness component. I don't want to overstate it. If you know what you're doing and know that there's a very substantial risk that you're selling an unregistered security, then you're liable for a crime. You have to have a state of mind about breaking the law. And so if a federal judge in a very, very high profile case rules, it is a security, an unregistered security, and you go ahead, then you are really taking a substantial

risk of criminal liability. I'm not sure, David, can you hear us? I'm good. Can you guys hear me? Yeah, we hear you. So do you have the same of effectively the same opinion? You came on Spaces yesterday. I'd stepped off for like five minutes, but I heard you kind of in shock, surprised. Your friends were calling to dunk on you. You said the SEC was going to win. So you were obviously at least surprised by the decision. I'm surprised, not shocked. But I feel like the echo chamber of crypto Twitter yesterday was too enthusiastic. There was just irrational exuberance based on a trial court decision. That was me. Yeah, that was me. Yeah, but go ahead. So effectively, this was a split decision,

and this was the right decision. Now, just because I am wrong doesn't mean that the charge didn't get right. So I can acknowledge that. But here, I've always been a believer that the resale on a change is never a security. So I think that, which is the largest component, which is what shot the markets up, is the right decision. But here for Ripple, outside, if you take away the clickbait headlines, here, they basically said the initial sale is a security. The fundraising mechanism was a security, but the secondary resale and the sale of tokens on an exchange is not. And that's huge. And that's great for the space. Look, I have a vested interest. In my personal life, everyone thinks I'm pro-crypto. In my personal life, everyone thinks I am a huge crypto, Bitcoin, token person.

In the echo chamber of crypto Twitter, I am seen as a cautious, if almost anti-crypto person. So there's two very different things going on here. This was a huge day for the crypto markets, but let's not lose sight of the fact here. This is a district court judge. We're in the third inning of a baseball game. The earth shattering amount of monetary movement yesterday in the crypto market is irrational exuberance. The appeal here, and James is right, the FCC is going to come in and appeal this

hard, but Ripple is going to appeal this hard too. This was an awful day for the main people who made money at Ripple early on. This case is going to trial. The footnotes in the case are basically just legal

legal not organic. There's just a crazy little thing. There's nothing truly subtle here. The headline here is great. I'm not downplaying the importance of what happened yesterday, but what I'm saying here is this is we're in the third inning

of a baseball game and it's 7-0. And Ripple had a great day. They scored seven runs. They should win the game here. But the fact that the sale is dead, it's kind of like the Ethereum presale. The Ethereum presale, and this goes back to the Digman speech, Ethereum presale should be deemed a security. Everyone else who's touched Ethereum since should not. And that's basically what the court said yesterday. But so, James, isn't this absolutely massive, though, for the Coinbase case? Because to my understanding, the real premise, the grounds from the SEC is that Coinbase, there's a few things, but the main one is that they've been offering the sale of unregistered securities. And if XRP is not an unregistered security on secondary sale, then it seems like the SEC's case against Coinbase just got a hell of a lot weaker. Yeah, I think that's right.

And, you know, I'm a believer in markets. And there's a very strong signal in the market about what the market thought of the impact on Coinbase. So yeah, the premise there is that Coinbase has listed crypto assets that are securities. And this decision of Judge Torres totally undermines that idea. And as I said, if Garlinghouse and Larson and Ripple itself can sell their XRP on an exchange and that not be considered a security transaction, then any investor who has no affiliation with an underlying project, whether it's Algorand, Solana, or any of the other tokens that are issued in Coinbase, should be in the clear. But as David rightly points out, it's one judge. It's a district court judge. It's not

binding precedent. But these two cases are in the same court. They're in lower Manhattan, I have no doubt. These judges know each other and respect each other. And so I think the judge in Coinbase is going to give a good, long, hard look at the decision uh by judge torres and i think she got it right it makes sense that you don't enter into an investment contract with somebody you don't know and as soon as that trade settles you have nothing to do with them uh going forward and none of the money that you receive when you sell that token is being funneled back to Ripple, it makes sense that under Howie, it's not an investment contract. So I think she got it right. I think that part of the decision will be upheld on appeal,

but it's not a sure thing. So when David talks about an overreaction, I think there's just a tremendous amount of relief about the worst case scenario is now off the table. I think there was just a tremendous amount of relief about the worst case scenario is now off the table. I also want to talk about that. So I do think it's irrational exuberance. I mean, obviously, XRP nearly doubled in price. We saw coins like Matic, ADA go up 30-ish percent at the top. But to be fair, and David, I don't disagree that the mood was irrational gibberance, but those coins dropped 30% just a couple of weeks ago because they were effectively named passively

unregistered securities in enforcement action. So I can see why a Solana, an ADA, a Matic would basically just retrace those losses, which by the way, happened overnight on a Friday, just to get back to the price that they were before that bad news happened. I mean, Ripple has been just taking a beating for years because of this, right? I mean, delisted by every American exchange, exchanges all over the world, they're going to get relisted, right? So I don't know that this price move, considering it was in the multiple dollars range at one point, is so crazy. So I think if you just take a step back and I can't swear to this, but I sold my Ripple when the SEC sued Ripple. I sold my Ripple on Coinbase.

Why wouldn't you? I sold a 55 sign. So it's not irrational if you take from when the case was filed to today, the update and so from that perspective I don't really because I'm not a price guy I am not saying it's irrational the actual price movement and the value I don't talk about value of cryptos

but I did sell mine and I would buy again today if I believed in it if I bought crypto and I just didn't receive it when I settled cases but from the perspective of are the markets, I don't really, the irrational exuberance, and I think this almost plays into the bigger ETF conversation. If you want to look at what Gensler is going to say for everyone who hates Gensler, but if you want to see what they can say is, look, a district court judge made a ruling that was positive and the markets have

this type of volatility. That's the volatility argument. I think you can almost throw out the market manipulation argument for a second. This is just a volatility argument. Look what happened on a district court judge. When I filed the first lawsuit, I think in 2014 against Cripsy, Coindesk reported on every single motion we filed. There was no other real litigation going on. We then sued Coinbase. But every time there was price, we truly believe there was price movement in 2014 based on the judge's ruling. And ultimately, I think that that's not good for the space.

There should have been a bump yesterday. Absolutely. It was a bump yesterday. Absolutely. It was a great day. And crypto is a great day for crypto believers. But was the bump rationally tied to the metrics of the market? I don't know. Look at Coinbase stocks, for instance. This just means, and I think Coinbase, forget the case for the second, this means Coinbase should be allowed to sell everything right now. Now, until the second circuit comes in and knocks down this ruling, which I put it at a 65% chance they don't.

It's not like a public court's just normally knocked down district court rulings. Most judges will tell you they have a 75-80% confirmation rate of their rulings. So this is not like the court's going to come in. But we're in for an 18 months of, there are still

a lot of surprises. Again, 7-0 third inning of a baseball game is the best example I can give. Yeah, I like that. So here's my next question. So we're obviously celebrating this as a win, largely. I do believe that it's a win certainly for the 68

so tokens that have passively been named securities in these SEC enforcement actions. The question now though becomes, how difficult does this make it for any new project to launch? Like all the existing tokens seem like this is a huge win, but the fact that the XRP offering is actually a security from the beginning, doesn't that mean that it's going to be exceptionally hard for anybody to launch anything else in the United States? Like now we have precedent for that part.

Not necessarily. The mechanism of distribution of the tokens has to be reconsidered. But I can imagine, I'm semi-retired now, but I can imagine lawyers that I used to work with, lawyers I know, are advising, well, what if you just distributed your tokens using an algorithm on an exchange? According to Judge Torres, that's just fine and dandy. with the pre-mine and VCs and hedge funds and all of that, which are investment contracts under this ruling, you just distribute your token on exchanges. So some sort of fair launch that's more available to the public

and not to insiders? Yeah, just for the record, I'm not saying do it, but if the Second Circuit affirms what Judge Torres said about those exchange sales, then I would presume that you're going to see at a big law firm in Washington, DC, and my big law firm friends all reached out to me yesterday. All of them are ecstatic because all this did was create chaos for fancy lawyers at big firms on how to deal with the next round of market launches. But they all said one thing, and I do agree with what they're saying on this one thing. Coinbase is now, and I use Coinbase almost like Kleenex right now just say a billion dollars on the first day without regulation, without who's the gatekeeper of that information, Coinbase isn't going to

play that game. Coinbase is going to want to make sure they are protected and they don't create new problems for themselves by making other people rich. They want to just make sure that everything's approved by the- You want to make sure they get rich. And get rich by the trade and get rich on their own stock and get rich on their own trading. But I don't think this is going to open up floodgates for Coinbase to simply start taking every token for free and trading them with- Yeah, I don't think that's what you, yeah, I don't think that's it. I think James's point, at least to the understanding of the lay person,

to me is that they will very closely look at the wording and find ways to be arguably compliant in the way that they launch in the future right is that correct james i mean basically you've got the language here now you read it you interpret it and you find a way yeah you know what and and what's left in that uh ripple case is uh as one claim for aiding and abetting against larson and garlinghouse. And the issue there is what was in their head? You know, did they believe or were they reckless about whether it was an issuance of the security? Well, if you think about it, if you're taking action based on a ruling of a federal judge,

then I don't think any court's going to find that was reckless to engage in that, you know, that avenue of distribution through an exchange. And by the way, here's a funny little quirk here. At some point, if it's upheld, Ripple's going to have to pay, you know, for those institutional sales, which were deemed to be investment contracts. And it may be a big number here's what's funny they can just go sell more xrp on an exchange to get money it was always like let's be awesome let's be honest larson and garlinghouse had a history of uh selling into every pump of xrp right there i i think we celebrate this this victory because the victory for the market but it doesn't necessarily forgive the things that we celebrate this victory because it's a victory for the market, but it doesn't necessarily forgive the things that we viewed as bad behavior or as a little bit on the line at the time. Your point is exactly right. They've got a hell of a lot of XRP to sell still.

Yeah. I mean, the billion dollar fine, I think we all agree if XRP gets it, they could care less. But at the end of the day, we don't want a OTC market that's unregulated. I think that's what the SEC is going to fight. Well, first of all, they're going to appeal. And they're going to appeal fairly quickly because they have a PR problem, they have a legal problem, and they have an ethical problem. Those are three bad problems to have when you're a government. Normally, the government's supposed to always be on the high road. They're supposed to be doing the things that are moral, ethical, and legal.

And when the government is the one that now seems to be 0 for 3 on those three metrics, that's a bad sign. And I guess it's asking them to deter it, at least. Yeah, that timing issue is a really big one. So the question now is, are they going to go forward with a trial? It's going to take a lot of time. There's still more discovery to do, I think. And tried Garlinghouse and Larson on whether they aided and abetted on a claim that the SEC has already won.

So there is no incremental benefit to the SEC by even winning that case because they get the complete relief against Ripple. So, however, you know, we have a rule, Scott, that you cannot take piecemeal appeals. You got to appeal one final judgment. There are narrow exceptions if the judge permits you to take something called an interlocutory appeal. But I agree with David that the timing here, I think they want to appeal fast because all of these exchange cases, Bittrex, Binance, Coinbase, all of them are going to argue, hey, looky here at what Judge

Torres has done. There's no way trades on our marketplace are securities transactions. We want the case dismissed now. So it's better for the SEC to be able to say, we are appealing that decision as opposed to, you know, one day when the trial's done, Larson and Garlinghouse, by golly, will then appeal in the future, is less strong. So I think this is going to be really interesting for us law nerds. Are they going to go forward with a pointless trial against Larson and Garlinghouse where they get no incremental benefit? Or are they going to dismiss and take

it immediately to the second circuit? At some point, you got to imagine the legislators are going to just start asking the SEC why they're spending all their money on this and why this is such a major focus. Interesting comment here from a woman who runs with wolves. I assume we're the wolves. Bottom line, we need smart legislation. It goes on to say, judges can't make laws. Gary Gensler can't make laws, right? But the Howey test also isn't a law from legislation. It's precedent from a court case, correct? And I mean, that's what we're still talking about 90, 80, 90 years later. Right. But now we've got such great examples around the world of how to do it, you know, in the European Union and Singapore, Hong Kong, all, you know, Kazakhstan. I mean, it's embarrassing now that we have no regulatory framework passed by our elected representatives

who really ought to be the ones making this decision about how this important segment of our economy is going to be regulated. So, you know, there was a bill proposed two days ago by Senators Lummis and Gillibrand, which basically makes most, virtually all crypto assets commodities. And it says that the exchanges should be regulated by the CFTC and not the SEC, which would just absolutely destroy this case

against Coinbase as well. But go ahead. Yeah, that's right. That's right. And you know what? That kind of is on Gensler. If what his enforcement program, this regulation by enforcement, wasn't so bad and contrary to how the SEC ought to operate and how markets ought to be regulated, he probably lost the opportunity to be the chief regulator for crypto assets because of his own leadership. And that's something that's pretty significant. I mean, I said this yesterday when I got off the plane.

I think that this is really important. This was a crappy title by the SEC. Everyone knew, every intelligent person knew what Ripple was doing was wrong when they started and they started selling. They didn't bring the action until it was too late. Coinbase, I'm not a believer that because the SEC gave the registration statement and let them do the IPO that it was off. They should assume Coinbase in 2015, 2016. Sure. So by waiting, they're now the ones with egg on their face and the world has shifted.

And as crypto has become more relevant in the world and the financial market, the narrative has changed. I think the SEC wins all of these cases and they file them at the appropriate time. Because back then, guys like me who were early adopters, I mean, I'm not OG, I'm like second G. I've been in the state since 2013. And I just think that in 2013, when this was all happening, that was the time to do this, create the law when crypto wasn't really relevant. But the relevance, the timing, and the whole world has changed. And making arguments about these things retrospectively is what just makes the SEC look bad. And they're making arguments that just aren't applicable today.

And we can talk about whether the US government is going to do laws. The government, US is eventually going to pass laws. We're retroactive. We're not a country that does things proactively when it comes to agri-law. So we will see Congress eventually act. They just react reactively, and that's what's happening now. We're fighting fights that we shouldn't be fighting today on old news, and I think that's why the SEC has so many problems in these cases and why guys like me are having an egg on our face because we were arguing back in the day.

Someone threw a tweet at me from five years ago yesterday. They love the family. Yeah. But the world has changed. Again, in my real personal life, I'm very pro-crypto to people who I speak to. My kids' soccer games and my kids'

sporting events. Everyone there thinks I'm this massively pro-crypto person. You've already seen me on 50 Town Halls. I'm definitely to the left, like in the echo to the left or to the right. I don't even know which side I am on the echo. I don't know which side. Yeah, but I'm on a side.

I'm not in the middle. Ultimately, I think I keep saying this. The court got it right for today. Yeah. Go ahead, James, and then I want to read you the SEC's response to this case. Yeah, that is funny.

So we talked about second-order effects. The third-order effects, I guess, are the Bitcoin ETF applications. And when the SEC was giving this feedback to the recent submissions, hey, get really specific on who you're intending to use your surveillance agreement with and who's going to custody your assets. They wanted them to say Coinbase because it's very easy to imagine a rejection on the grounds that you are proposing to use a custodian and a market surveiller who is an unregistered national securities exchange, just like we said in the lawsuit, rejected. Now, the premise of the lawsuit is shaky.

It's not definitively gone, but it's really shaky. And so if they don't have that argument anymore, they're starting to run out of good arguments to prevent a spot ETF given all of the other more complex derivative products they've approved. Yeah. I want to just read this really quick. This was the SEC's response to the Judge Torres ruling. We are pleased that the court found that XRP tokens were offered and sold by Ripple as investment contracts in violation of the securities laws in certain circumstances. The court agreed with the SEC that the Howey test governs the securities analysis of crypto transactions

and rejected Ripple's made-up test as to what constitutes an investment contract, instead emphasizing that Howey and subsequent cases have held that a variety of tangible and intangible assets can serve as the subject of an investment contract. Further, the court rejected Ripple's fair notice argument, noting that the Howey test is clear and that claiming ignorance is not a defense to violate his securities laws. We will continue to review the decision. This sounds like they're coping. Yeah, I predicted this. When there's so much dunking and spiking the ball on Twitter

and on some YouTube shows I went on. The question was, well, how's the SEC going to react to this? I said, they're going to react by saying, this is great, we won. Yeah, we won. Yay, we won. Yeah, but the fact of the matter is they put a big, dark cloud over trading of XRP today on secondary markets. And I guess it's partly cloudy now. I mean, much of it has been removed.

They lost. They lost in a big way. And I don't think they have much of a choice but to appeal. And what I say to people is, who are like, why would they appeal? It's clear now they lost. I'd say, well, let's put the shoe on the other foot. If Torres had ruled XRP itself, the token is a security, all trading on the secondary market is securities transactions. Is there any doubt that the defendants would appeal, that the XRP community would, by golly, demand appeal? No, there's no doubt.

But like I said, I believe in the signal of the market in terms of who won. We saw what happened with that XRP price, what's happened with Coinbase. What if the SEC was a stock? Would it be up or down after that decision was rendered? I think it would have hit an air pocket and found a lower level. Look, I've been using Rocky for the last 24 hours. This is the first Rocky quote that's important. I think it was Rocky Valboa,

I guess the fifth one. Tommy, yo, I haven't heard a bell yet. The fight's not over. That's number one. And number two, and this one's what happened yesterday, is when he hit Drago and you see the blood trickling out of Drago's eye. Look, man, he's bleeding. The SEC is bleeding right now. And, you know, this is going to open up for the wolves. I mean, you got to remember, you have Coinbase, Binance, Bittrex, all with the best lawyers in the world fighting the SEC who are salivating. One, that the lawyers are going to make a ton of money because this made their lives and their arguments a lot easier.

And number two, the Coinbase approach of Coinbase, you have to remember, has been issuing press releases via their file. Everything Coinbase does is basically a press release. I'm a huge fan of that legal strategy. But they themselves said, if you don't grant our major questions argument, we're going to ask for an interlocutory appeal. So even the SEC right now might be like, thanks, guys. Now we're going to ask for this interlocutory appeal. It sounds like a big word, but all that means is that a party can skip in front of the rest of the case and try and go to an appeals court. And I think what James was saying is very true. Why fight the trial for the rest of the XRP issues that you've already won and now you're just talking about a fine, whether it's a dollar or 5 billion, it doesn't really matter. If you can skip to the head of

line and get an appellate court decision, you're one step away from the Supreme Court. And let me tell you something, there's a big difference here between what the Second Circuit is going to do, which is a So we have no idea what the conservative Supreme Court is going to do with crypto because there are a lot of people who, if I'm bold, I was called a boomer yesterday. I was very offended by being called a boomer yesterday. I'm 46 and I'm like way boomer in this community.

So me too. I'm 46 also and we are internally boomers, but I'm a Supreme Court's freaking all. So at this point, that's really an important distinction that if they do get to cut the line, that's 18 months more of uncertainty. Yeah. I don't disagree.

I thought when you were going to quote Rocky, you were just going to scream, Adrian! Or you're going to say, if he dies, he dies. You went with different ones. Probably some of the most quotable movies. So I didn't expect you to go to Rocky Balboa, which is like kind of the worst one. Honestly.

Honestly. I mean, any final thoughts here, guys, on what this all means? If we missed anything, I think we kind of discussed what it means for Coinbase. I think we discussed what it means for future launches.

I think we know what it means for all the other coins in existence. Is there anything that we're potentially missing here? Or is there any chance, like a lot of lawyers have been saying, that the judge just completely got this wrong? Well, lawyers are saying that. I disagree. I think it makes sense that on an exchange, you're not entering into an investment contract with a counterparty that you have no idea who they are. Um, so I think she got, got that right. Um, and you know, honestly, as a lawyer, it's, uh, you know, tip of the cap to, uh, that legal team that, that ripple put together a real all-star expensive team, uh, that, that really sort of put the sec on trial through discovery and got more information out of the SEC

than any case I've ever seen. And then John Deaton as well, coming in on behalf of thousands of XRP holders. I think that was impactful. And the reason I think that is it's right there in the opinion that she cites to that and says the purchasers in this, what she calls programmatic trading on exchanges, may not have ever heard of Ripple. So they weren't thinking that they were making investment money into Ripple. And so hats off. I mean, people have a good reason to celebrate that whole XRP community. It's been a punishment since December of 2020, just dealing with this

process. And by the way, it isn't easy. If you've been through this, you never forget it. The psychological toll it takes on people like Garlinghouse and Larson to be accused of fraud for years by the most powerful entity on the face of our earth and that is the u.s federal government to bear up under that day in and day out takes a psychological toll so so my hat's off they decided they could have i bet you they could have settled on the exact terms of this uh where judge torres came out they would have been delighted yeah we. Yeah, we'll pay it. We'll pay it fine. As long as XRP is cool now, we're good. So hats off to them. But that's a battle.

War's not over. It's important for people to keep that in mind. Hold on before we let you go to sleep. I'm a New York Mets fan, and the New York Mets are finding ways to lose right now with the biggest payroll in Major League Baseball. I think that we have to be very careful here, because if XRP and the crypto community overshoots and does stupid things based on this, that they still have a chance to lose.

Oh, that's what we do. I think what James just said actually nails what happens. Ripple would have taken this decision and would have taken this ruling on day one, and the SEC never would have agreed to that. So don't be the New York Mets and find ways to lose and do not steal. Do not steal.

Do not steal. Don't defeat from the John's inventory. Don't victory out of your hand and grab defeat. So I think there's a lot of, again, it was good, but there's a lot of irreparable exuberance. There's a lot of things going on. The long-term impact here is simply

you had a really good day. Enjoy it. I do think that the legal teams for all the exchanges right now are salivating on how to move forward. But there are a lot of ways that this can still go sideways. This is not the end. We're still 7-0 in the third inning.

Great place to be. I'd rather be winning 7-0 than losing 7-0. Yeah, especially if a tornado or hurricane comes through and they call the game and we win and it's over. Listen, I'm going to enjoy my irrational exuberance for a day, but I will identify as an irrational exuberator for today and just accept it and move on. Gentlemen, thank you so much. Got to move on to Eric, who's been waiting patiently in the wings

to talk about what this means for the market. Gentlemen, I'm sure I'll see you on Twitter spaces or something very soon. Thank you very much. I will. Thanks, guys. Guys, as I said, we're moving on now to talk about what this all means for the markets. Absolutely massive day for the markets. I got to watch

Eric getting dressed in the wings, which is pretty cool. I was also eating some watermelon as well. Get stuck, Scott. I think he's eating watermelon, getting some buttons ready. Whatever, man so that's cool

good to see you too monster week for markets right just just in general i think this was the best week for stops uh basically since november uh we obviously saw the ripple decision coming in yesterday which sent all coins andcoins and the crypto market flying. Not as much Bitcoin as maybe people would have expected. So what are you looking at right now, broad strokes for the markets? Robert Leonard Well, I'll just draw some marks. I mean, if you're talking about cryptocurrency, as always for me, the focus is on Bitcoin, right? And Bitcoin did get a decent move yesterday, nothing groundbreaking. It was mostly about-

Preston Pysh I know, yeah. Robert Leonard Kind of weak. did get a decent move yesterday nothing groundbreaking it was mostly about our kind of week yeah it's mostly about the all coins it kind of seemed like to me and you know obviously that was related to um well you know the uh the decision that came out yesterday so it's actually very interesting to listen to the prior two guests about that um i'm no lawyer nor do i claim to be but uh as far as technical analysis goes as far far as quantitative analysis goes, I'm still looking at my models, which suggests that higher is more likely than lower. At this point, I can show my screen over here. If you'd like.

I would desire that. Let me make sure I don't give you the wrong tab because I have some... I won't bring it up until you give me the thumbs up. We're good. It looks like a not embarrassing chart. Yeah, none of that hentai going on. That's good.

Anyways, don't laugh. So as far as Bitcoin goes, on the higher term timeframes here, I do look at this as still kind of range bound. Now, it is in a very powerful position within this range. However, the big area for me is about $30,800 right now. So as long as Bitcoin's above there, pressure remains on to the upside. I look at this as just a genuine pullback and probably continuation to come over the next couple of weeks. I believe we spoke on a space actually two weeks ago and I kind of said the

same thing. And I think that now is two weeks away from that and we're probably seeing kind of the next move or the next leg of this move start to slowly emerge. So the models that I'm looking at right now come in twofold or at least the two, I think, main ones that I probably want to present on a video like this would be one. This is based off of an indicator setup in strategy that I have here on TradingView. It's very, very simplistic, just momentum oscillator slash volatility indicator, and then using a statistics indicator to take profit. And if I go ahead and backtest this relationship that this strategy has had on the 12 hour time frame, we've seen 35 of these setups over the past four years now,

going back to 2019. And of those 35, about 63% almost have been, you know, a profitable move to the upside. In this case, this one did fire off more recently here at about, this was Sunday, actually. Sunday when Bitcoin was trading

about $30,150 or so here on Bybit. And, you know, that would have a slightly higher probability for obviously upside in this case, going back into the strategy tester. We can see a lot of things through the performance summary, actually. And the ones that I really want to be focusing on here is that if this does play out in that upside fashion, which, you know, slightly higher probability, the average winning trade was printing about 15, 16%. There's going to be some variance within that, of course. But in this case, if we were to play around with numbers here and just look at what that would look like on the charts, well, that would be suggesting

16% plus current, or not current price, but from where that setup was given, that put Bitcoin somewhere around $35,000. I think that's a rather interesting target, all things considered, because that is one of the last major CME gaps coming in from last year's... Oops, I am on the wrong chart right there. There we go. I'm looking at this gap. I don't think your chart changed for us, so you might have a... Oh, bastard. Okay, I see. I see what happened. I just do it. That was me. That was my bad part. On your last chart, I did notice this is the highest. Since you're looking at the 12-hour, this was the highest 12-hour close yet in this entire cycle was

two days ago. That's interesting. Right. Go ahead. My apologies. I completely whiffed that one. So here would be the setup. Again, just momentum and volatility indicator combined with statistics indicator. And basically, when we see this setup fire off over the past three years, I'll just show you the stats back again over here. It's been 35 over the past four years. About 63% of those have had some nice upside movements. So again, going into the performance summary, we did see for the winning side, for the winning trades, those did print about an average of 15%, 16%. On the losing side, 13%. So these are big numbers here, very, very big numbers. However, in this case, this one does end up being a loser. It will be considered a loser by this algo below about 29,500, 29,400. But until then, pressure on, risk remains to the upside as far as I'm concerned. And

like I said, putting 15, 16% on current price action, that puts Bitcoin somewhere around 35. Again, that is very, very close or right in alignment with one of the last CME major gaps from May of last year on this gap down. Yeah, May, May 2nd of last year. So I do like that as kind of like a general area of interest. I'm sure if we were to put on an inverted fib here, which I believe already have, yes, indeed, I'd actually be the 382 Fibonacci retracement from the ultimate high to the ultimate low of this cycle thus far, which is a pretty, I mean, all things considered, when we're talking about like macro cycles, that's, that's a pretty realistic kind of balanced play. You know, even if you're like about macro cycles, that's a pretty realistic

balance play. Even if you're super bearish, that's not like out of the... Yeah, it's a good place to look for a short. If you're super bearish, you're looking for higher prices to short if you're being honest. Or you just short the whole way up. You mean the people who've been shorting since 17,000? Yes, I know those guys. That's a rough conversation to be having, man. I mean, at that point, Bitcoin already went down like what, 70, 80%? Actually, I'm just... Rough, man. Anyways, again, so that would be that model. I have another model if you want to go through it as well, but I kind of suggest something relatively similar here.

Just a volatility versus still cast momentum setup. Volatility represented by this indicator. Anytime that we see it get down towards these extreme lows, the expansion phase then naturally falls, mathematically falls, as it is kind of programmed to do such, has led to about an average move of around 40% over the course of a month. You know, a little over a month, actually 37 days, with a standard deviation of about 10 from that number. So looking at this one and looking at the direction of the stochastic

oscillator, which has had a high probability for a move in that direction, in this case, very obviously to the upside, this one fired off from $25,000. And if you were to add on 40% from that low, where does that put Bitcoin? That puts Bitcoin 35, 36,000 bucks as well. Again, we kind of get like a timeframe for this. That would be around the end of July. Again, these are averages. Doesn't need to be exactly that, but somewhere around there would kind of make sense. And actually, oh, I did it again, man.

I did it again. Here's the step. I have to realize. I'm totally watching and thank you for talking. We're good. So hang on. Yeah. Yeah. Anyways, here it is.

We don't need to go through the explanation again, but basically same sort of area right here, right? And given a bit of a time frame on that as well. In fact, the prior trial, which I will now remember to go back into here, if we go into the strategy tester, it can give us some ideas as far

as when that move would likely occur as well. And I do believe it's kind of a nice end of July date. Let me just pull it up right here. Yeah. Average amount of bars and winning trades was 40. So on a 12 hour time frame, that's 20 days. This one again, fired off on the night of this month. So yeah. 29th. Yeah. Right at the end of the month. Somewhere around there. Yeah. So those are my two models that I'm looking at right now. They basically get invalidated for the current move below about, let's just call it 29.5. I'd even say it'd be quite concerning if Bitcoin came back down in the short term below about 30,800 or so. So until then, I'm just looking at this move to kind of move sideways and up from here and frustrate people more and more.

Grinding up would crush people. Slow grind. Yeah. Not give anyone a clear entry would crush people. What do you make of the fact that Bitcoin has obviously been effectively completely uncorrelated of late, right? I mean, even CPI, PPI comes in. Stock market goes nuts. Bitcoin just kind of sideways.

I mean, I love that you can just look at the chart and trade it. You don't have to think about macro. You don't have to pretend you're a Fed expert anymore. No, I agree 100% on that. You know, honestly, man, I don't really have any strong thoughts on that, to be honest with you. As far as Bitcoin's correlation, I think people look at correlation in the wrong way to begin with. I think you really want to be looking at the regression, like the R squared of correlation,

because correlation fluctuates on a tick by tick basis. And you don't really need to see things operate like that. What you're really looking for is a general trend in that same direction, which can emerge over weeks and months across these markets. So I just look at it as, you know how like shit coins typically play later than Bitcoin, like Bitcoin makes moves, then it goes into Ethereum, then it goes to shit coins, all the walk. The way that I see it for Bitcoin is like it's a shit coin relative to traditional markets. So traditional markets have gone vertical, obviously.

I mean, we saw- Right, that's right. Bitcoin is actually wildly performing. I mean, you saw- Right. Bitcoin's actually wildly performing. I mean, you could say- Yeah. Yeah. But I don't think so. But yeah.

But to me, wow, this one, holy shit, this one's almost at 16,000. Wow. Okay. I was looking at the target. I mean, dude, you look at the stocks. Stocks right now are not so far off their eyes, right? I mean, from last year. It's pretty nuts.

But my man, we have a looming recession. Yep. Algo, Algo's breaking out, guys. I saw him right here. He doesn't bucket shit coins. Busted. There we go. Yeah.

That was wish. So tight. That's right, man. No more paywalls for me. I can buy my own. but you know the way that i look at is traditional markets being strong that probably spills into bitcoin just happens a little bit later because bitcoin and cryptocurrencies i mean you know it's still a pretty risky market and it's just it's weaker relative to real stocks that have earnings and

you know stuff like that that would be my main disposition there. But again, I don't really have strong opinions on those correlations and whatnot. So what's Algo doing over there versus Bitcoin? That was actually my Algo, not Algo coin. Well, the Algo round. That was a strategy. Yeah, yeah, exactly. So that was a strategy.

It actually, I don't know if i necessarily want to go to it right now but just took a long like on a 10 minute no need there you go game winning he's literally like live trading on the other screen while we're not it's actually my bot yeah kind of it does everything on its own which is nice but uh but yeah yeah nice and safe is there anything else that you're watching i mean anything need like any entries that you're watching i mean anything like any entries that you're stocking on any assets or is it pretty much you know you're looking at bitcoin i mean do you think that the stock market's due for a reversal here i think

we got to get a correction soon but hey what do i know yeah uh i i you know i do think that it will play out a nice pullback relatively soon um you know000 to 16,300 is my area that I've really been looking for. This is a hell of a move right here, though. I wouldn't short it, though. I just want to stop. But yesterday, I had bought, admittedly, for investment portfolio on the way down, I bought Meta at 232 when it hit the 200 weekly. I mean, it broke right down. Not so nice, though, when it goes down to 89. But then I loaded up heavily.

But then I loaded up heavily again at 100. And I said, yes, you sold. I sold most of that at 314 yesterday. Oh, God. Yeah, that couldn't have been better, man. Wow. Right. That doesn't mean I'm calling the top.

It just means I'm super excited. Right, right. 3X Meta in within a year right but i do think there might be a correction but i also didn't sell at all right to tell you know so gotcha gotcha yeah i mean i'm looking at this weekly right here for nasdaq and it's a bullish engulfing i mean yeah it's i mean maybe it doesn't go for 16 300 before it tries for a pullback, but this thing is... If that's not climbing the wall of worry, I don't know what the hell is. Even if it drops, that's going to make just the cup and handle of editing proportions.

Yeah, I mean, it could easily come down to like $14,000 and I'd still be bullish on it. You know, that's just insane. You know, other than that, the other chart that I like to watch recently is just Dixie, you know, the dollar index. Yeah. This one had a clean breakdown. Yeah. Yeah. You know, I think that this one generally trades lower towards like 98, 97 region and probably try for a bounce there.

But until then, you know, I think that we have a nice rally in our hands and probably a big correction maybe later this year. I think it could even be as much as like 30-40% for Bitcoin but in the meantime, how high does it get first? I think mid-30s is pretty reasonable. Things get really crazy maybe low 40s and it's dirty to me.

Yeah. If I really get crazy with it man, if I really want to get Scott all jacked up over here, maybe mid-50s. Yeah, it's going to happen. I mean, Dixie, I was just happy. I had the perfect storm. Yeah.

I hadn't checked Dixie this morning, but sub 100 is meaningful. Yeah, very meaningful. 1.79, I'm seeing. That's meaningful. 100%, yeah. So, you know, all these things, all things considered, we've been looking at a pretty damn boring market, actually, in cryptocurrency land

for the past, what, three, four weeks. And, you know, after a consolidation like that, I think you can expect that there's going to be some more fireworks on top of this current rally. You know, it'd be very uncharacteristic for it not to have continuation. Again, I have my invalidations below 29.5

and big warning flag below about 30,800, but as long as it's above there, sideways and up is the name of the game. Sounds good to me, man. I appreciate your time, as always. Let you go back to your watermelon and hentai. Oh, baby. Can't wait. Enjoy it.

All right, man. You're a legend. I hope to have you on soon. Of course. All the best, guys, as well. Thanks, man. All right, man. You're a legend. I hope to have you on soon. All the best, guys, as well. Thanks, man. Take care, man. that down to all coins. I do think that we're going to see this bullish momentum continue, you know, kind of retrace a little bit here, up, up, up, all things pointing bullish. Gotta love it. Now we're going to go talk the shit out of XRP again on Twitter spaces at 1015 AM Eastern Standard Time. Guys, don't miss that. Of course, I know that you've all already tried, checked out MELD. Am I hitting it? There it is.

Checked out Meld. But go do that down in the description. Guys, I got to run. I only got 20 minutes to get ready for the next show, which should go for hours. I appreciate you guys showing up. Huge thanks to all the guests today. Metal Law Man, James Murphy, Dave Silver, and of course, the legend, Eric Crown. Peace, guys. See you on Monday.