The Wolf Of All Streets - This Indicator Signals Huge Bitcoin Rally (Buy The Dip?)

Starting point is 00:00:00 Is it time to buy the Bitcoin dip? According to Bollinger Bands and the legend John Bollinger, maybe this is the time based on the signal that the Bollinger bandwidth is giving for the third time. Each of the previous two have been massive market bottoms. We're also going to talk about bankruptcy palooza. We've got FTX settlement coming, Celsius settlement coming, and it looks like those of us who are Voyager creditors got super hosed in hindsight. I've got one of my favorite guests today, Joshua Frank, talk about all of this, dig into what's happening in the markets. Usually we're just two cranky boomers, although he's much younger than me. I guess I can't really call him that. Okay. One boomer and one guy who's cranky, like a boomer talking about everything going on in

Starting point is 00:00:43 crypto. And of course, Dan, the chart guy is on the back end to tell us what's happening with markets and probably tell us how dumb we were not to buy wheat stocks earlier. Let's go. smack that like button. I'm going to go ahead and just bring on Josh and start talking about this. Dude, the bankruptcies are finally coming to a close here, it seems. Yeah. I mean, we saw from a couple of sources this morning, FTX scrapping relaunch plans. I thought that was a terrible idea to begin with. I don't know who's going to trust that business again and expects to pay customers their full money back. Obviously, keeping in mind that this is their full money back in US dollar terms, and a lot of crypto has outperformed, but also some

Starting point is 00:01:54 crypto has underperformed, I think, since the bankruptcy happened as well. Yeah, I'm sure. I mean, so I had the numbers. It's about $16,000 per Bitcoin. It's here somewhere. Now, I'm not going to quote it incorrectly. But as you said, it's based on the prices in November when they declared bankruptcy. Those of us who went through the Voyager process, we got back 34% of the value on that day. So this is three times better than that, which I don't think anybody had on their bingo card after seeing how much was spent in this bankruptcy. But basically, it seems that FTX customers benefited massively from this dragging out and ending in more of a bull market than at the bottom of a bear market. We're able to benefit from the fact that FTX made some investments with customer funds,

Starting point is 00:02:48 which they should not have done, but those turned out to be very good investments. I mean, the number one being Anthropic and others. So at the end of the day, if you had told people a week after FTX filed for bankruptcy, that they'd be getting all their money back, you know, a year or two from now, I'm sure everyone would be thrilled to hear it. But I'm sure now people are like, well, you know, if I had had the Bitcoin, it would be higher. But, you know, the claims, the FTX claims, when trading started, right, where you could sell the claims to your holdings, those were selling at about $0.07 right after the FTX collapsed. So anybody who was buying claims and the amount of emails I got inbound from traditional

Starting point is 00:03:30 funds buying claims were insane. You've saved 13 extra money in like 12 months. Yeah. If you got the bottom, if you got the bottom, not everyone got the bottom, but if you scraped the bottom. Yeah, but even people who bought them for $0.30, $0.40, I mean, it's still a massive deal. And that was considered high at the time that it was happened so first as you said they're scrapping plans to relaunch the exchange thank god because the last thing i need to emotionally trigger me is to look at the words ftx uh on arenas or all over my screens again every single day so i'm glad that this is being wrapped up. Just incredible that the price of Solana also helped this so massively. And the GBTC discount closing. All of those things have

Starting point is 00:04:11 helped massively for people to get paid back. We know that GBTC, they basically dumped a billion dollars worth the minute that this converted to an ETF. That was a huge part of those grayscale outflows. And Solana went to 120 something something. If you were a Voyager creditor, you literally watched them not only like mishandle the loan that blew them up, but then if you were watching price action, they liquidated everything at the deadest bottom of the market possible at the time. Like Bitcoin was 25 grand within a week on both sides and they sold all the Bitcoin at like 19 or 20. I mean, it was just insanity.

Starting point is 00:04:47 I mean, the thing to think about is if you were a creditor and then you did take all your money and put it directly in crypto, you would have likely had an outcome similar to this by this point. But it's totally fair, and I think it's fair to be frustrated. The other one is Celsius. I'm happy. I mean, I'm happy for the FTX creditors. It's frustrating in a vacuum anyway, so I'm glad that it works out better for others. But yeah, here's the Celsius one.

Starting point is 00:05:09 Yeah. And I got one. I'm actually going to share my screen. Let me throw this document here. This is from the actual document itself on what Celsius creditors are getting. So there've been a lot of reporting that Celsius creditors are getting about $3 billion cash and they're getting equity in a new mining company. As you guys might've remembered, Alex Machinsky took customer funds and used it to buy a tremendous amount of mining equipment, among other things that he did with customer funds. And so what customers are getting back is about $3 billion in liquid assets, primarily in Bitcoin ETH. They are also getting a new mining company. So there is going to be a new publicly traded mining company. So it is going to list right away that Celsius creditors are going to

Starting point is 00:05:51 get. And there's also some illiquid assets here. And those illiquid assets, they're going to have a wind down period to get those illiquid assets liquidated. And the total outcome that they're estimating is about a 79% total recovery. So it's also, on a relative basis, it's a decent recovery. What's blowing my mind, and not to dwell on Voyager, but there's decent recoveries from the two guys who outright committed fraud. And Voyager, he did not commit fraud. He literally just gave a loan and the result was so much worse. I mean, I think it's incredible.

Starting point is 00:06:32 Mashinsky and Sam were literally stealing people's money and they're still getting it back. Yeah, yeah. I'm just happy that they're getting it back. I mean, at the end of the day. But please, if you're getting back Bitcoin and ETH, don't dump it. Hold it, please.

Starting point is 00:06:47 Yeah, so that was the, I guess, the like slightly silver lining of mine is I did take it all in Bitcoin and ETH, which is what I still had. And so that has, you know, effectively gone up, you know, 70, 80% since then. So versus what I would have had, no, but at least I didn't take it in cash

Starting point is 00:07:04 and now I'd be down another. Yeah, but at least I didn't take it in cash and now I'd be down another. Yeah. The thing that I'm interested in though, is all of the firms that bought claims to FTX, right. Or bought Celsius claims. A lot of those firms aren't necessarily long-term believers in the underlying crypto. And these are very large claims. And so if you bought claims at 20 cents, 30 cents, 40 cents, right, you know, a lot of times you're not interested in holding that underlying crypto, you were just interested in making that trade. And so I think as part of that, you know, you will see, again, another wave of selling pressure, as these claims are received from folks that were just trying to,

Starting point is 00:07:42 you know, basically trade the delta between what the claims are actually worth and what they're able to buy the claims at. Yeah. You mentioned Bitcoin mining. Obviously, we have the halving coming in. Right before the show, you and I were talking and you said that there's been a really interesting trade happening. Yeah. I don't know how crowded this trade is, but hearing a lot on the traditional side about firms that are going and buying the ETF and then shorting mining stocks at the back end of it. Basically, the idea that going into the halving, Bitcoin itself will outperform mining stocks, which are miners or capital intensive businesses. They have a lot of the same costs. And obviously, the rewards are going to be,

Starting point is 00:08:20 well, halve. It's the halving. And so there's concerns about the performance of miners. And the view is, look, miners could go up and Bitcoin could go up, but the view is that Bitcoin might go up more. Or miners could go down and Bitcoin could go down, but the view is that Bitcoin will go down less. And so that's a trade that I think is interesting. And it's enabled by the fact that now it's much easier for a lot of these traditional funds that couldn't take spot exposure to get exposure directly in with their traditional prime brokers, right? Because they're trading the ETF. They're not needing to get exposure to spot Bitcoin. So it's an interesting trade.

Starting point is 00:08:54 And, you know, they're longing Bitcoin. So that in and of itself is good. Is there a nuance to that, like specific miners? I even had James Butterfill on yesterday from CoinShares, and he said, listen, these are the ones who are positioned well. These are the ones who, I don't know, and these are the ones who are screwed. Yeah, look, these guys have varying levels of cash flow. A lot of them have very different debt structures. Some of them, it depends when they were buying mining equipment, how much they paid for their mining equipment, how much it costs to service their debt,

Starting point is 00:09:30 what their capacity is, what their electricity cost is. So there's definitely nuance there. But I think the view is that at least a few of the miners are really terrible businesses. Not all of them, but a few of them are really terrible businesses. And there's alpha just in the delta between the performance of those miners and Bitcoin itself. Yeah. Some of them don't own any of their underlying infrastructure. So they don't really have any value there and don't have any cash. And they're going to need to raise it to at least suffer those first few months before the halving. They're basically betting that the price of Bitcoin goes up massively earlier in the cycle

Starting point is 00:10:06 than it normally would, or they have to go out of business. Think about that though. It's crazy. If you believe that Bitcoin's going to go up six to eight months after the halving, and you might not survive past four, right? Yeah. Yeah. And at that point, would you rather own the company that's not going to survive past for the underlying Bitcoin itself? And so, look, I think the halving is a great narrative that people like to talk about, but over time, it means less and less and less as block rewards decrease. Two halvings ago was much more impactful than this halving. And next halving will even be less impactful than this halving, unless you're a miner and your primary business is mining Bitcoin and now your revenue is decreasing by half per block. If we take out, obviously, all the fees that are paid in Bitcoin, because miners also do receive fees.

Starting point is 00:10:55 And when people go degen and start using BRC20s and ordinals and things like that, that's great for miners. But all things equal, new Bitcoin rewards are dropping by half. And obviously over time, we started with 50 Bitcoin down to 25. Now we're talking a few Bitcoin per block. It's just significantly less impactful narrative. However, as we know in crypto, reality doesn't matter. And the only thing that matters is what people believe, because we have tokens trading at $30 and $40 billion market caps that have four daily active users.

Starting point is 00:11:26 So the only thing that matters is what people believe, what the narrative is, what people are saying and what people care about. And so I think that's a really important caveat to consider with crypto. That is not the case with a mining stock, which is a publicly traded company, which is going to be traded by companies. Obviously, look, we had the Reddit, AMC GameStop phase. And so that's not to say that that can't happen. But broadly speaking, miners are traded by traditional hedge funds that have access to information and financials that are

Starting point is 00:11:56 going to make financially motivated decisions. But I really just want to hear the names of the companies that are trading at $20 and $30 billion market caps. I have like four daily active users. You and I have been over these many times in the past. So that was kind of our favorite activity in the bear market was like, how's this thing worth $10 billion? And you can go on chain and be like, there's three guys developing this and like a monkey that just traded with an elephant somewhere. And about 100,000 fake Twitter accounts that tweet about it. The craziest thing is when you go and you find a new crypto project, and you see that they have 150,000 Twitter followers, but only two people you know follow Jupiter, and I'm the boomer that I talked about before. I don't understand any of this. But at the core, James was saying that he thought that a lot of what was happening on Solana and a lot of the TVL and the numbers being presented are somewhat cooked because it's all airdrops and free money and people move on.

Starting point is 00:13:04 Do you think we're getting real adoption on Solana or do you think that it's like a... I think Solana has real usage. I think Solana does have real users. I think there are a lot of developers. I've actually, I will give Solana a lot of credit. I've been very impressed by all of the developers that continue to believe in Solana, even as the token crashed to, you know, what did it go down to? Like $10 or whatever it was?

Starting point is 00:13:26 Yeah, something like that. Right? Like, I think there are a lot of people that are actually very genuinely excited about Solana. They're very genuinely excited about building on Solana and using Solana. You know, does that mean Solana is worth, I don't know,

Starting point is 00:13:39 what is the fully diluted valuation of Solana? Like, those are different questions, right? I'm not making a comment one way or another on what Solana should be. $54 billion. Is Solana worth $54 billion? That's up for question. But are there real users of Solana? I would say the answer is yes. But the question is, what is a user? And a user and a speculator can be one and the same thing. I think people are using Solana to speculate on assets, right? It is a chain that is fast, that is cheap to use.

Starting point is 00:14:10 And so it is great for DeFi. It's great for trading. It's great for speculation. And that's a use case, right? That's a real legitimate use case of crypto. I think sometimes people are afraid to say that speculation is a real use case. But people love gambling. Like if you look at what did well during COVID, it was all the vices.

Starting point is 00:14:24 All the alcohol companies did well. The casino businesses did well. The gambling businesses, DraftKings, all those kinds of guys, and crypto. When people have spare cash and they can spend discretionarily, they like spending it on gambling. And so I think in that regard, look, having a chain that's used for speculation isn't a bad thing, right? That's a thing. Yeah, I agree. It makes perfect sense. We just have to be intellectually honest, I guess, about what this market still is. Yeah. I mean, it's still speculation. Look, I do think there's a lot of... We've talked about this a million times, right? And your listeners,

Starting point is 00:15:02 there's nothing new here, right? Stablecoin remittance is still a use case. It's still a big use case and it's being used in Lat Tem. I was speaking to one of the two biggest credit card processors in the world, and they are genuinely taking very seriously the risk to their business of peer-to-peer remittances in Latin America using stablecoins. So they are- Was it Visa? It is one of that or the other one. There's two of them, right? So, or there's- Visa or MasterCard. I've figured it out, guys. It's one of that or the other one there's two of them right so or there's these are master card i've i've figured it out guys it's what it's one of them maybe american express it could be it's one of those it's one of those so the um but the point being is that you know these companies are taking it seriously there are real usage there is usage of stablecoin for remittance a lot of that

Starting point is 00:15:41 still happens on tron which befuddles me but you know it is what it is um yeah well you got other justin sun is the last man standing by the way yeah if you look at like the the last cycle villain i'm not saying he's done anything wrong i have no idea i'm just saying can we bring up some justin sun classics there's just some justin sun do you remember justin sun greta thunberg moment that's one of my favorites. I remember the Warren Buffett lunch. I don't remember. There's a couple. I got to pull up a couple of Justin Sun classics here. All right. This is the Justin Sun. I'm like now on the spot to pull this stuff up. So I'm going to go as quick as I can. All right. Justin Sun, Greta Thunberg. Justin Sun pledged a million dollars. As a young entrepreneur, I share Greta Thunberg's passion to change the world.

Starting point is 00:16:28 Crypto will continue to contribute immensely in reducing carbon footprint by implementing decentralized settlement. I would like to personally commit USD 1 million to Greta Thunberg's initiative. Top 25, Justin Sun. That is a good top 25. That is what I hear. My other favorite thing is, and i don't know if i'm gonna be able to find this um i mean the warren buffett one was the best when he paid like four and a half million dollars i don't want to quote the number wrong to go to lunch with warren buffett

Starting point is 00:16:56 i don't think he ever got to go to lunch with warren buffett and he said he was going to convince warren buffett to like love drawn in crypto which which is pretty sweet. I appreciate the effort. Is there a picture of this? Justin Sun in 2020 or 2019 threw his face on every single elevator I could send this and the doors opened. I got to find this for you. It's fantastic. The doors-

Starting point is 00:17:20 The Tron's marketing at conferences is intense. He's flipping tokens. He's flipping USDD and Tron. marketing at conferences is intense. He's like flipping tokens. He's like flipping USDD and Tron. It is just, it is insane. There's also the Justin Sun was supposed to give away a free Tesla, didn't give it. Somebody threatened a lawsuit, had to give out two free Teslas. That's another one of my favorite moments. There was the-

Starting point is 00:17:44 But he's still here, the but he's still here man he's still here he's still here well i mean htx i guess now which is like really close to fdx and name like he's trolling but i mean still here and still got billions that there was that wasn't there that there was also one where the whole world was convinced he got murdered in san francisco or something no i think he got murdered in San Francisco or something. He got murdered in China, but he was like, I'm in San Francisco, guys. Literally, proof of life. They thought he was in a Chinese prison.

Starting point is 00:18:14 I think that was the... And then he became His Majesty of... What country did he become His Majesty of? Some Caribbean nation of some sort. I think he became son ambassador, right? No, this is fun. This is more fun. His excellency, his excellency, Justin. Grenada. Grenada. Grenada. Yeah. Grenada. Yeah. I don't know. I don't know. Justin soon. Justin's son. Yeah. But yeah, I'm look there. There have

Starting point is 00:18:43 been historically a large number of rumors about different crypto companies blowing up. And I think historically, a lot of those have turned out to be true, right? There is everyone kind of within the crypto space was concerned about Celsius for a while, felt that Mashinsky was not the best character. FTX, no one really knew about that, right? No one was really concerned until that balance sheet got leaked and then whatever. But there were a lot of, there were rumors about Genesis. There were rumors about a lot of these different guys. There have been a lot of rumors. Obviously, there've been a lot of rumors about USDT, which have been proven incorrect. I mean, I think at this point, big four audit firms and stuff have come out to defend them. I think that

Starting point is 00:19:24 establishes a sense of legitimacy. But the Justin Sun one, something has to be true there. I'm not I'm not a I'm not one that just says believe the crowd. But there is no way that with all the shit he has going on, something isn't severely underwater or negative. It just doesn't make any sense. Where is all this money coming from? Yeah, I don't know it's a he has unstable coins there's a true usd fud that somehow he's forget poloniacs he has poloniacs quobi he's got a bunch of and everything is named after him too he's got like you know like

Starting point is 00:20:01 just swap just lend just lend yeah uh there was, there was like a casino win was the token. And it was like literally one of those one sat tokens where like, if it went from one set to two set, you doubled your money. And you just had to wait in line to buy it or sell it for months until you got filled in the order book. Cause there were just two prices. Good times. Good times.

Starting point is 00:20:21 Hey, speaking of things that may or may not be dead. I don't know. XRP price dips as Ripple co-founder says personal accounts impacted $113 million exploit. Not dead. I to catch the problem and notify exchanges to freeze the affected addresses. Law enforcement's already involved. This is coming from Zach at BT. It appears Ripple was hacked. So it wasn't Ripple. It was his personal wallets, but about $113 million worth. He's got billions. Drop in the bucket, right? I mean, his token trades at $45 billion or whatever it is. So I'm sure he's got more than $113 million worth. Look, I'm just happy that users weren't affected. So look, obviously, it sucks for anybody to lose $113 million, but I'm sure he'd lose a lot more than $113 million if other users on his chain were hacked versus him because of the price impact of that.

Starting point is 00:21:21 You said something to me when we were talking about this earlier. What if? What was the what if? Do you remember? Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. That would be a great one. Yeah. What if he just decides, Ripple just decides, because I don't know how decentralized XRP is, to just freeze the chain and reverse the transactions or to pull a Ethereum fork-esque thing, as a lot of people remember with the DAO hack with Ethereum forking and ETC and ETH. They decided to just fork Ripple and say that everything pre the hack is what's real. But I mean, that is going to... The SEC is already not happy with XRP and losing that case, that would introduce an unbelievable amount of scrutiny. And I do not think that that possibly happens.

Starting point is 00:22:11 It would be a whole level of fun if it happened to watch that play out, but that would be a terrible idea. I'm sure he's thinking about it, but you can't do that. Yeah. Is there anything you're watching right now that actually excites you? I mean, the ETF narrative seemed to be the thing for so long. It seems like we're kind of just floating at sea again, looking for a new narrative. We've talked about the Ethereum ETF here. We don't need to do that one. But, you know, these airdrops on Solana, kind of seeing different ecosystems have their little boom and bust cycles right now. Is there any of this that's real and you think will be lasting into this next cycle? Yeah. Well, look, I think the things that are interesting or real or things to consider, the first thing that I'm just looking at is institutional adoption of crypto and what's happening. And I think the Bitcoin ETF actually just makes it a lot easier for funds to get exposure to crypto.

Starting point is 00:23:08 I thought you said FUD, but you said funds. But you coughed and you said for FUD to get exposure. I thought, and I was like, wow, that sounds bad. For funds to get exposure. A lot of funds are now able to just trade the Bitcoin ETF. They couldn't trade spot Bitcoin before. Again, that doesn't mean that they're going to be buying and that they're going to be long term. But that is going to introduce liquidity to the market and liquidity begets liquidity, right? The more liquid the asset is, the less it moves on large moves, the more size that could come into the market, the more interested people are in

Starting point is 00:23:31 participating in the market. So I think in that regard, it's a good thing. You can lever up, you can, you know, your traditional prime broker Goldman can extend you margin on your Bitcoin ETF, right? Or JP Morgan or anybody else, because it's ETF. And so I'm interested in just seeing, you know, how many participants we see start rolling in and start trading the ETF, and then maybe get, you know, a little bit, you know, a little bit excited about the rest of the market, right? And using that as kind of just like an introduction and a taste to, you know, eventually want to go to spot and want to be able to trade more, because, you know, if you're just trading the ETF, you know, you're not getting the same level, you know, you're be able to trade more because if you're just trading the ETF, you're not getting the same level. You're not able to trade it on weekends. You're not able to trade it after hours.

Starting point is 00:24:09 And crypto moves a lot in Asian hours. So you're not going to really want to be in the market overnight necessarily, depending on your time horizon, because your ability to exit, unless you obviously you're able to go short on a crypto native exchange and not something that trades particular hours of the day. I don't know if you've been paying attention to this, but Coinbase has quietly been prepping a huge war chest for this election, saying they want to get to about $100 million. Brian called it the most consequential election. Super PAC donors include Andreessen Horowitz, Ripple again, etc. Do you think that this election is as important as they're saying here?

Starting point is 00:24:53 I mean, is this like a do or die situation for crypto? Yeah, I mean, I don't think it's a do or die situation for crypto, but four years is a long time, right? And so, you know, four years of having an SEC commissioner and broadly a political landscape within the United States that doesn't favor crypto, that's a really long time. And we've sat through the beginning of that. I mean, I still remember when Gensler was appointed and everyone got excited because they're like, oh, he teaches a crypto class at MIT. That was years ago, right? And obviously that hasn't worked out just as we planned. You know, We thought it was going to work out necessarily, but people who knew Gensler kind of had that viewpoint. Yeah, I mean, I think it is really impactful. I think it does matter. I

Starting point is 00:25:37 think it matters who is the SEC commissioner. I think it matters, are we going to change roles around crypto custody to enable large traditional banks to offer custody services? Are we going to give licensing to crypto companies? Are we going to, you know, are we more on the side of this administration, but are going to be flipping their votes next election cycle, because of this issue specifically, a huge number. He made it clear that this is a bipartisan effort, they're basically just going to rain helicopter money on anyone who's crypto, you know, who's a bipartisan effort. But I think, you know, it starts federally down, right, in terms of, you know, cabinet appointments and appointments of chairs of different commissions and government bodies. So I do think it's really important that there is a huge lobbying effort. I am I am skeptical on the ability to lobby the Biden administration on this just because of the relationship that exists with Elizabeth Warren and the fact that Biden is dead. I don't know how he's still alive. Like, yeah, like not in the water, like actually dead, like we can- No, he's like actually physically dead. Like I don't understand how that guy,

Starting point is 00:26:56 he should be in an old age home. And like, I'm not saying Trump is any better in a lot of ways, but I think there's an ability to push for more progressive policy there. And I think it depends who makes it as VP candidate, right? I think that's really important. I think it's really important to be lobbying with any of Trump's potential VP picks on this. But I think also, I don't know, look, there's also a world in which Biden decides to dump Kamala Harris, and potentially you have a VP on the Democrat side who is pro crypto. And it's worth obviously the effort there. But I think, look, you want to have Congress being pro crypto. You want to have both the Senate and the House pro crypto. You want to have as many

Starting point is 00:27:36 people that are pro this space as possible. And so lobbying is super impactful. And I think the important thing to note for anybody who is a politician or anybody who's in Congress is just look at the percentage of people under the age of 30 that holds crypto. That is the next generation of people that are going to be taking power, that are going to be entering politics. And I think we're going to see much more progressive policy from 30-year-olds and 40-year-olds and 50-year-olds and the 97-year-olds we have running for presidency. I think they're 497 years old. We're out of time. Josh, always

Starting point is 00:28:13 a pleasure to have you here. I also owe you a personal message on some business we're trying to work on. Could be some amazing things coming from myself and a tie. We're working on it. You guys can follow Josh right down below. And thanks once again, man. I'll talk to you very, very soon. If anybody finds the Justin Sun elevator picture, please comment it on this. Please. Yes, we need it.

Starting point is 00:28:35 Do it. All right, man. Thank you. All right, guys. So listen, two things before I get Dan up here. One is, as you know, we have a once a weekly sponsor, which is DevE. I'm so bad at the mirror thing. Does it look like I'm moving it along the bottom?

Starting point is 00:28:53 Feels like I'm doing it. Like I'm on the escalator, that thing at the airport that makes you not have to walk as far. But guys, I've been talking to you about DevE quite a bit. If you're wondering what it is from their own words, DEVI is orders of magnitude faster, cheaper, more scalable, more architecturally flexible than any other layer one. It has specific patented solutions, fraud, theft, loss protections, privacy protections, and regulatory compliance that others do not have. The solutions are well tailored to enterprise and government use cases. As I've told you, this is pretty much tailor-made for companies and countries that have to deal with ESG. The numbers are astounding. It's 8 million TPS with sub-second finality, which is one-third a billionth the energy and CO2 of Bitcoin. That's third-party ISO certified. And as I told you, this is being built by the former head of the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency and venture builder of the Kindle, former CIO of Starbucks,

Starting point is 00:29:47 former president of Universal Pictures. It's like one of those things in crypto that's actually serious and real and is going to be very, very successful. I am quite sure. So you guys should check them out. No affiliate link, nothing like that. Literally, they just want to get the word out. And so you guys understand what they're doing. And after that, the next thing we have to talk about, obviously, is the title. I'm going to bring on Dan. Dan, really quick, I just want to talk about why apparently Bitcoin is going to go way to the moon. And then you can give me your thoughts on it, because it says there, this indicator signals huge Bitcoin rally by the day. I'm so bad at actually doing my titles.

Starting point is 00:30:26 We do the title and then I literally do a show on Justin's son. But this is based on John Bollinger and the Bollinger Bands, which is an indicator that quite a lot of people use. For those who don't understand how it was created, there's a middle line, which is basically the 20 period simple moving average. And I believe now I'm going to look, I think it's two deviations. Yeah. Two standard deviations above and below you get the bands, right? And so the bands either widen, they act as support and resistance for people who've never used it, but they also get narrower or wider based on how much volatility are. Right now they're basically as narrow as they've ever been on the monthly chart.

Starting point is 00:31:04 That's what we're talking about here, a one percent so you can see you don't even have to look at the bollinger bands if you look at the indicator it's bottom three times here at one percent and those have been the bottoms of every single market guys monthly chart right so you're talking about 2016 2020 2024 that doesn't mean tomorrow we go to the moon it could be like years right right? But this is an indication that a lot are using that saying it's time to buy the dip here and start really looking at Bitcoin again. Have you ever used Bollinger Bands? I went through a Bollinger Band phase. Oh, yeah. It was a backbone of my analysis, probably the first six or seven years

Starting point is 00:31:39 of my trading. Definitely useful in terms of, and as you mentioned, it tells you when volatility is coming. I use price action and equilibriums and tightening ranges now to do that, but it was a good visualization to say, get ready, volatility is coming. When you break out above them, not to be surprised by a pullback. And yeah, it's a good trend indicator with the 20 period simple moving average. I use that as a core aspect of my analysis for a long time. So I don't use them at the moment. Crypto actually changed that because I just went price action when I started trading crypto. But as far as indicators out there, it's definitely one of the better ones, in my opinion. Yeah, I've gone through the phases as

Starting point is 00:32:21 well. I think we all go through our B-band phase, our Ichimoku cloud phase, our supply and demand phase. Then you eventually, I think everyone lands at just price action and volume pretty much eventually. Yeah. I can remember back in the day, I had a buddy that I was trading with and he told me, yeah, I took all my moving averages off my chart and I thought, what are you, an idiot? And then a couple of years later, like, oh yeah, this makes sense. Yeah. It's pretty much all there to see where the volume's at. So what are you, an idiot? And then a couple of years later, like, oh yeah, this makes sense. Yeah. It's pretty much all there to see where the volume's at. So what are you looking at today? We obviously had a bit of a dip in Bitcoin over the past few days. I think we kind of got excited, speaking of moving averages, it had gotten above the 50 two days ago and dropped right back down

Starting point is 00:32:57 below. Yeah. Looking at the daily timeframe, I mean, it was a nice bounce off the lows and now we need the trend change. So there's no red flags here. We got to set the daily higher low and higher high if we're going to see follow through. And at the moment, this is, you know, pretty healthy consolidation, trying to hold these, these EMAs on the back test. I go on the four hour timeframe from here, just knowing that, you know, we have a four hour downtrend after the Powell reaction yesterday, and we got to see these bulls regain the four-hour trend in their favor if we're going to say that that daily high or low is shaping up. But essentially what the bulls need from here is that daily uptrend to confirm if this weekly

Starting point is 00:33:35 is going to follow through. And again, as I mentioned, in my opinion, the most likely scenario will be a tightening weekly range for a good bit of February, unless we see increasing volume. The daily volume is dropping pretty considerably, at least on Coinbase and Binance, some of these exchanges. So generally speaking, when you have a significant amount of volatility in both directions, if the volume continues to taper off, anticipate a tightening range, which is what I call the equilibriums. And that's going to potentially lull people to sleep a little bit to start February. And then when that range breaks, we're going to get a whole bunch of information because a tightening weekly range, if we do get it, if it breaks bull, we're going

Starting point is 00:34:13 to test the high of the year. And if it breaks bear, then we're looking at monthly consolidation. And those are obviously two very different things, looking at a bit of a fork in the road. Yeah, we're choppy. We're choppy. You just referred to this. I'm bringing up Bitcoin's price dips as Federal Reserve holds rates steady. Markets were all over the place yesterday, I think, which is exactly what you would intend. Interesting because they did exactly what everybody knew they were going to do. But in my mind and what I expected and got was that Powell basically said, we're going to just kind of stay here for a while. Everybody's anticipating these cuts and there's just no reason for them to do it. He sort of

Starting point is 00:34:49 alluded to that, right? Which I've been saying the whole time, like, why would they cut if jobs are strong and inflation's coming down? Yeah. My very, very unfundamental opinion, it is a fundamental opinion, but I'm obviously not a fundamental analyst is yeah. Why, why are they going to cut? Everybody's looking to March. And so what the FOMC reaction and conference was doing was determining probabilities of what's the probability we get a cut in March and the probability drops significantly. And now everybody's looking, okay, well maybe may, maybe June. And, you know, for me, it's, it's not really a significant part of my analysis. It's just a question of now,

Starting point is 00:35:26 how significantly are bulls going to buy this dip? And they are buying the dip so far. And we'll see if that continues. Just looking at SPY, I still consider that we're in a melt-up phase over the last few months. And you can see that every big red day where we have closed at the low, it's just been zero follow through. And so we're watching, is that going to be the same thing this time around? And it's worth watching for sentiments with Bitcoin and things like that. And as of right now, the bears have a lot of work to do if they're going to derail this S&P 500 chart, which has just been extremely strong. Yeah.

Starting point is 00:36:03 What else you got? Watching these miners. I like that segment, tuning in. I like that. Nobody talks about hedging and protecting yourself. If you're going to be really heavy Bitcoin, maybe it's worth some hedging, shorting the miners. Granted, if Bitcoin goes up, the miners are likely going to go up as well. But if there's relative weakness there because of the fundamental drop in revenue and things like that, that's definitely worth paying attention to. So we know Riot has been a lot weaker than MARA. So I'm going to be keeping an eye out for the possibility of a longer term bearish entry in some of those names, especially if Bitcoin

Starting point is 00:36:40 underperforms as far as expectations heading into the halving and post halving. But that was a good segment as far as my trading mindset. Yeah, I thought it was really, really interesting. And he said it to me right before that he's just hearing that this is being done by a lot of institutions. I mean, we all know about the other ways people have taken these hedging or whatever trades in crypto in the past and have ended pretty poorly, the GBTC discounts and premiums and all of those. But this one, it's very rational, right? Like if everything goes up, you're assuming that you'll still make money just less. That's the point of the hedge, right? And if things go down, well, at least you're not just getting slaughtered. Yeah. So yeah, it's the same thing. You know,

Starting point is 00:37:22 Bitcoin, we need the daily trend change. Same thing for these miners. Riot has to confirm the daily uptrend if we're going to get any follow through. I would like to see that happen because I would like to scout a weekly lower high bearish entry at the moment. It's a possible weekly bear flag, but again, way weaker than MARA. You can see we didn't break the summer high here, whereas MARA did. And again, the way to compare the names, if you just look at Riot divided by MARA, it shows you who is stronger and who is weaker. And if this chart is going down, it means Riot is weaker than MARA, and that's an ugly chart. So we'll keep an eye on that. Not all miners are built the same. Yeah, definitely not. As far as other things, I'm going to talk about cannabis.

Starting point is 00:38:05 So still looking just fine at this point. We're testing the resistance level that everybody's watching is 988 in the short term. And we are knocking on the door here and just grinding the daily higher lows. It is a little bit rising wedgie. So I am putting on my bare glasses just to ensure that it doesn't catch me by surprise. But we're either going to lose the daily uptrend or break that 988 resistance sometime within the next two or three days. So it's just building momentum and hype you see on social media. You know, a decision from the DEA is imminent and a source in Washington says this. So it's getting people excited and it's getting

Starting point is 00:38:45 people holding their positions. And there's a lot of excitement around February. So we're going to continue to watch this space. And even just our analytics as content creators, we could just see building and building interest and live streams getting a little bit more than our crypto viewers recently for the cannabis stock. That's interesting. That's interesting. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Definitely paying attention to MSOS. And again, we'll continue to, I did a live stream about it yesterday. We're going to continue to cover it as long as that opportunity remains. And I was kicking myself as soon as I signed off last week, you end saying anything else and I didn't have the CMPS chart. This is a psychedelic name, but I loved the

Starting point is 00:39:23 breakout from this weekly long-term downtrend. And it was just a little inverse head and shoulders. And again, same thing, the psychedelic space has these catalysts where the FDA may approve MDMA for the ability to be prescribed. And that would be a catalyst for this sector. They're all just low cap names. So any kind of headline that gets attention, it's high risk, high reward sector. And CMPS is definitely one I'm keeping an eye on. I've never even heard of that one. So I'm taking note and putting it on my radar right now. Yeah, it trades dollar volume. It's about 7 million a day. It's not a lot, but we just went straight up 50% and we're going to look for a daily higher low. First hourly oversold conditions is definitely going to have my interest,

Starting point is 00:40:11 but it's definitely seeing, it trades in hand in hand with the cannabis sector. And so anything that's good for the cannabis sector, good for psychedelics and vice versa, just as far as people being more willing to put their money in these higher risk sectors. Awesome. Looks like you have one more up there. One more. Uranium is still going, man. Today, big day. CCJ testing the all-time high. We're just riding the weekly uptrend. URNJ is one of the ETFs, new all-time high today. I mean, they're up huge today. And the reason is one of the major companies came out and said, you know, we produced less uranium than we thought we would. They guided down what they're

Starting point is 00:40:49 going to be able to produce in the future. And knowing that there's a crunch with, you know, there's high demand for uranium and there's low supply. Now, one of the major players is saying, yeah, there's even lower supply, which increases the price of uranium, which benefits the other companies. So it's still definitely just a bull sector. URNJ, if you just, you know, weekly EMA 12, just hold that and it is good to go. So definitely, you know, as far as looking back over the last couple of years, it's definitely one of the stronger sectors out there and it remains, it remains an elite here. Love it, man. Thank you for the alpha, as always. If anybody had just been paying attention to weed and uranium

Starting point is 00:41:29 since you've been talking about them here for months, you could go, I guess, smoke some weed and buy uranium. But yeah, no, no, never. Don't like the uranium. Don't do that. I heard that that's bad, theoretically. I don't know much uranium don't do that i heard that that's bad theoretically i don't know much about uranium but i know that's probably good thank you so much uh guys follow chart guys of course uh on twitter right down below and check out his own youtube channel uh really amazing content there man thank you once again for for joining thanks scott have

Starting point is 00:42:01 a good one see you next week buddy all guys. That's all we got for today. Debbie, the sponsor, please just check them out. You just click it and you look and you check it out. There's literally nothing in it for me except for you checking it out because it's cool. Yeah, guys. That's all I got for you today. I don't know if I showed you guys this. I'm going to cover this, but I'm a

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Starting point is 00:42:38 I am now from Palau. That's all I got. I will see you tomorrow with Nathaniel Whittemore, NLW doing the Friday Five. It's going to be awesome. We're going to have amazing things to talk about

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The Wolf Of All Streets - This Indicator Signals Huge Bitcoin Rally (Buy The Dip?)

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