The Wolf Of All Streets - Trade Wars Accelerate, But So Does Bitcoin | Crypto Town Hall

Episode Date: April 11, 2025

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Morning, everybody. Welcome to Crypto Town Hall, Friday, April 11th, every weekday, 10, 15 ish, AM Eastern Standard Time here on X, hosted by myself, Mario Nafle. I should say the ghost of Mario Nafle and the not even ghost of Randunner, because we can't even get his ghost to show up. But either way, it is a show hosted in theory by the three of us. Here we are though with another amazing panel as the trade wars accelerate and nobody has any idea what the hell is going on, giving us a great excuse to sit here and pretend we do and to share our unwanted opinions on everything Bitcoin, macro and otherwise. Actually they're wanted because, you know, at least 5,000 of you show up every day to, to discuss.

But to me right now, there's two stories and everything else is just details. Obviously tariffs is all that matters, but to zoom in further on that China, right? I think that everything else, every other country is just a detail, maybe a negotiation, but China clearly not backing down. This is the country, obviously, that kept its citizens in lockdown for a couple extra years. I don't think they're willing to flinch when it comes to economic pain, but they basically doubled down, matched the United States 125% tariffs and said, literally their words do not come at me. They said Trump is a joke, but they said his policies are a joke here.

So obviously they're not taking it particularly seriously. And the other thing that's not taking any of this seriously at all, which I think is the number two that actually matters is the bond market. If the idea here obviously was to bring down rates, to refinance the debt lower, to unlock mortgages, to get the economy going, well, we're currently at 4.569% up from a low of 4.39% today. That doesn't sound like a big number when you're talking about the treasuries. It's a massive, massive move.

And just last Friday, one week ago, 10-year yields hit 3.86%. Now trading significantly higher back to levels where they haven't been since February. So a few months ago, obviously, if the goal is to reduce yields, it's not working right now. So let's jump to the panel. Very small, but very distinguished and established at the moment. Jonathan, you haven't been here in a bit, buddy. What do you make of all this? Personally, I love it. I love this stuff. This is great. This is so much fun from a trading perspective. But if you're somebody who's looking at, if you don't know what's going on, if you're worried, it sucks. We pulled a stock to its users with MicroStrategy

and MSTR asking, if Bitcoin approaches their average cost of $66K, what do people think? Is it bullish likely to bottom soon? Bearish? It's leverages rescue for disaster. But 64% of the voters think that the bottom is likely in soon. And when you look at on-chain analytics, which is a really... It's like a cheat code for crypto. I wish this existed for equity. Sorry, my hand accidentally hit the mute everyone button. Keep going, Jonathan. Jonathan might just still be talking, not knowing that he's muted. Possible. I got it. I'm sorry, Matt.

That was my fault, but made for good entertainment regardless. There we go. But if you look at the spent output profit ratio, it's one of those fancy on-chain analytic terms. It measures whether people are selling their coins at a profit or a loss. For Bitcoin over the last 90 days, it's been pretty flat. Anything that dips below one means that people are selling at a loss. You look at the second highest crypto market cap, Ethereum, it looks like it fell out of the punch me in the face tree, hit every branch on the way down and now nobody's helping it get up, dogs are peeing on it. It looks dead. But the rest of the altcoin market is sitting down in the doldrums, but nobody is really selling. Like people are not buying in,

but nobody's really like pushing it further south. They're not leaving these positions. Neither is there a ton of accumulation. So there's a sense of very, very, very, like as neutral as you could get right now. very, very, very like as neutral as you could get right now. Yeah. You can make the argument that ALTS have already sold off so hard that there's nobody left to sell. That is very true. But well, there are a lot of new active addresses. If you look at like

the 60 day, I believe it's there's a lot of new active addresses. I think a lot of them are at like a six month high, but they're still not selling. And of those active addresses, a lot are adding very small positions throughout this entire process. So but, you know, people who've been in crypto for more than one or two bear markets know the you know, the song and dance. And if you've been in crypto long enough, you these these types of opportunities are great. You got to be as happy as a fat kid in a candy store to buy one, get 10 free day. Yeah, but what's kind of crazy is a lot of these altcoins were down, you know, 75, 80, 90% from the last bear market. And since December have dropped another 75 or 80%.

This is one of those buy the dip that keeps on dipping situations. So I can understand the disbelief and frustration within the community at the fact that these just continue down. And right, if nobody's selling right now, Jonathan, to play devil's advocate, this, by the way, I tend to agree with you. But when you see things start to go sideways on low volume after a move down, that's usually a signal that there's going to be continuation of the downtrend, not some huge spike to the upside. Unless, of of course it's accumulation.

Correct. Either way, I think, I mean, for me at least, I fear the miss, I fear missing an opportunity as opposed to I miss a temporary paper loss on any new positions. That's, that's how I feel. That makes sense. Joe, he's talking about on-chain. That screams for me to go to you and hear what you're seeing and thinking about all of this, especially as you were tracking sentiment. Yeah. I mean, you have to be looking at macro.

You've got to be looking at the broader market. Things are still somewhat correlated. I know we saw a day, a day and a half there where Bitcoin started to kind of feel a little less correlated with the equity market, specifically the NASDAQ. It kind of reminded me of that scene from like the big short where

some of the mortgage companies start going out of business and he starts to get like sick in his stomach and he's like, I got to call my mom, right? Because it's that moment that it starts to unravel. It's like in a sense, it's almost like exciting when it starts to de-correlate a little bit, but then it also kind of sinks your stomach because you're like, holy shit, where are we going? So we had a couple of days like that over the last week, which has been a little interesting. But you kind of have to look at macro, like the VIX is up another 10%. Again, we're sitting at 44%. The 12% uptrend on that one

day was very reflective of a relief rally in the middle of a bear market is what it is really what it felt like people forget that the biggest rallies you don't see twelve percent upside rallies in a steady healthy people market not at all not at all so you know it's like what can you do here you know it you can buy a little bit. on red days, obviously more preferably, and then close your portfolio and come back in two years when the VIX is sitting at 20 or 10 or whatever it is, and you probably did pretty good, but you're going to have VIX up to 60, VIX up to 80, who knows, over the course of the next couple weeks here. I woke up this morning, Scott, and it was like, the first, it was so the stupid first thought in my head was like, man, you know, this whole thing is really like dependent on like three or four people. And you really just need those three or four people to just agree publicly on something. And like all of this goes away in that while. But if they just, if they just agree publicly on something, you know, the, the couple of

I assume you're speaking of Trump, the cent, and Lutnick. Very core. Yeah. And then like, G, you know, and then J-Pow. Oh, of course. If they all just were like sitting there like, hey, do you guys think this is true? And like, yeah, we all think this is true. And then we all say that publicly.

Suddenly like, everything is just calm. But there's just too much uncertainty currently. Still right now, people don't know exactly where things are going. A 90-day pause, great. But now it's like, you know, if you have more uncertainty, if you have 80 countries that you have to deal with every day, you've got some sort of agreement that needs to happen that's going to be slightly different, right? So I think it's just, that's why it was a relief rally in the middle of a bear scenario that we're in and sentiment is still very low. We're seeing low sentiment. We're seeing low social numbers, less people talking about crypto, less people talking specifically about the rest

of the market. It's all Bitcoin. If you're a builder and you're a founder, obviously, like we say, it's just a great time to put the blinders on, maybe just uninstall X and go to work, try to close a round of funding, make it happen, and come back in a little bit. But man, it will drive you crazy sitting through this because it is a self-inflicted wound that we're putting ourselves through here. I do think that, yes, it's not a good thing that we have to spend $1.3 to $1.8 trillion deficit the last three years, something has to be done there. This is his way of doing that. And so it's a TBD, but man, we're all getting dragged through the mud on the way up. Yeah. I've been hearing anecdotally, but also there's a lot of reports that VC activity, anyone

raising money right now is completely confused and in disbelief and doesn't know what to do. Circle reportedly now thinking about pausing their IPO. Klarna paused their IPO. StubHub, I think, pausing their IPO when just two weeks ago, it was all systems go for everybody to go public and markets to be open. So it just seems like massive, massive confusion. Adam, welcome. Go ahead. Hey, guys. Yeah, I'm not really a trader. I'm not an investor. I

see the world through the pinhole of a lawyer advising crypto and payments scenarios for a long time. And there's a kind of stealth bullish trend that I'm seeing, which is an inclusion of stablecoin into traditional fiat payment flows with basically Visa in the lead, including USDC in some of its merchant settlement activity, mostly in Europe now, but it's starting to spread to the US. What's the point here? The point is, is that with stablecoin entering the traditional fiat payment processing space, basically you have a stealth on-ramp into crypto because once that value gets into stablecoin, it's a kind

of, I guess you could say a gateway currency towards Bitcoin. And I don't know, I just wanted to throw that in the mix and just add that something I'm seeing from my particular vantage point. Thanks, Adam. Simon, go ahead. Thanks, Scott. You know, a danger of being parabolic, we are in one of the most changing times.

I believe we are in the midst of a currency war. And if people think that this is something different, then I think you're missing the severity of the situation. With 10-year treasuries up, with 30-year treasuries up, with the dollar crashing half the amount that it did in the Plaza Record, which is a coordinated- And gold up a few percent today, and gold up a few percent at 32.53 up 2.5% already just today. Yeah, absolutely. A capital outflow into foreign countries selling Treasuries and buying the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen. This is complete capital outflows and a recalibration

in a currency war. If you think that we solve this issue through tax reform, I think you're missing the boat. This can only be solved by monetary reform. You can't solve a monetary issue with tax reform. And so that is the confusion that most people are in. And confusion is the strategy. Because we are in what we are experiencing today. Again, I don't want to be parabolic, but I'm just telling you what I believe to be true. What we are seeing today is the reason why a gold standard existed. A gold standard existed in order to deal with trade imbalances and fiscal imbalances. The Nixon shock is the reason why there is the

what we're experiencing between China and America today. They are trying to fix it with tax reform when the only thing you can fix it with is monetary reform. So now you're looking at two forms of broken money of the dollar trying to fix it. One is that you look to the Fed and they do the disastrous thing that everyone may want them to do of reducing rates and doing some kind of QE, which will completely break the system if they do that, or they do nothing, and you realize that this is capital outflows as a result of rebalancing. Because America's in it. I don't get the numbers. Because America's in it. I don't get the numbers.

If America actually thinks they can win this trade war, America needs to import Chinese goods. China doesn't need to import American goods. China can say, we won't import any of your iPhones, but we will sell Huawei phones. The internal story in China is completely different to the internal story in America. If

you're rebuilding your manufacturing base, which may take you a minimum of five years to turn an iPhone that costs $1,000 into $10,000, then understand that the change has already happened. There is no reversing this policy. This policy is here and capital has said America is too uncertain under the current administration. If you compare, if you're a global capital allocator and you're comparing the Trump administration to Xi Jinping, where do you feel it's more stable right now? China's got $3 trillion of reserves, 22,000 tons of gold, and doesn't need to buy anything from America.

It's industry, which Western propaganda has said is like the Fed and about to collapse when it's already got a state banking system, which is radically different to the over leverage of a federal reserve system. 15% of its exports are America. Yeah, of course that will hurt it, that will harm it, but it could find new partners to make up some of that 15%. And it doesn't necessarily need to because it's got the reserves to sustain it. However, on the American side, we can see that if the dollar breaks, what impact does that have on credit markets? What impact does that have on the ability to roll over the national debt. This is a controlled demolition.

This is capital outflows. This is a recalibration of the economy based upon the fact that America went off the gold standard and defaulted in 71 and used the federal reserve system in order to extract as much value out of the middle class and hand it over to the wealthy. Those wealthy are not America first. America has sold all of its politicians and all of its capital

and all of its industry to global multinational financial institutions that have said, Trump, please come here, recollaborate the economy. We're deciding that we need to balance our capital around the world because the American side is too unstable right now. I just believe that and now you've got to look that into a Bitcoin and crypto story. Prior to Trump being installed in order to exert this strategy, BlackRock got all of the financial institutions into Bitcoin. The central banks were accumulating gold at the fastest rate possible. So the gold trades and the Bitcoin trades was already determined that global capital will own Bitcoin and will own gold. trade was already determined that global capital will earn Bitcoin and will earn gold, then they allow the Trump administration to happen and then Trump does the tariff strategy, wraps

it in a MAGA narrative to make you think that you're onboarding your manufacturing and helping middle class America. This is capital outflows. This is a recollibration of the economy. This is what needed to happen because the Federal Reserve couldn't pump the Ponzi scheme one more time. So that's what we're experiencing right now. It is a Bitcoin story. It is a gold story. And once people realize that tax reform doesn't solve the problem, and only monetary reform solves the problem, then you start looking at Bitcoin strategic reserves, stablecoins, and various other mechanisms.

And that this is why it is a story. We are in the right place. You just need to recognize it for what it is. And again, sorry to be parabolic. Yeah. Fred, go ahead. Well, thanks. Good morning, everyone. In line with kind of what Simon

was saying, I think people would do well to think of the meme of the guy freaking out that says, look, a distraction. Because I think that's what the tariff issue is. And I'm not saying that to diminish, you know, the pain that we felt in the stock market or the pain that, you know, anybody, small businesses, large business are feeling. But what Simon's point is, is that, and I might disagree with some of the ways he describes it, controlled demolition, selling out of certain interests. But I mean, I do agree with the overall point that we're at an inflection point with the monetary system. Things are changing. They're changing in a big way in America, a lot of other countries. I don't think China's as strong as people

say is, everybody's fighting to see what's going to happen next. And Trump knows this. I don't know if he's playing 97D chess, but he does know that these are the facts and he can control tariffs in the sense that it's an executive branch authority. He doesn't need to go through Congress to change them, unchange them, pause them, repause them. So it's a distraction and chaos that he has total control over. But what's happening in the background, which again, we've all mentioned and I think is

the biggest change that we're seeing is everything is going the way Bitcoiners and other crypto people want. Every single thing is good news. The laws that are coming through, the SEC cases that are being dropped, Trump just signed a bill. I mean, how quickly did that get to his desk? And the fact that it's all being moved around is he has to do this on the back end quietly. I mean, quietly for Trump, but you can't do these things unilaterally from the executive branch level. And so now everything's lining up perfectly for, hey, we don't know if it's going to work, but let's try and get this system on some type of digital payment system, some type of crypto system to see if it works. In that regard, you just have to... It's where I come back to my cycles theory.

There's always some crazy catastrophe in the four-year cycle where you think it's not going to work this time. Then, yet somehow, it always does, either earlier here in April or, you know, towards the middle and late fall and everything's still lining up that way, especially with the way the legislation is going. Okay, Jonathan, go ahead. On Fred's point, the stuff going on the background, this is in what Adam mentioned earlier, it was talking a little bit about earlier.

I don't think we talk about it enough, but Trump and his speaking through his surrogates, his sons, they really do not like the big banks. They got debanked. Him signing the DeFi thing, huge deal. The yield wars that are going to go on between DeFi and big banks, I have this feeling that Trump, conspiracy or not, wants them gone. And that DeFi can do better borrowing, easier borrowing, easier access, and better returns than the traditional banking system. I think that's the big thing that's going on in the background

not a lot of people are focusing enough on. Now, Zain. Yeah, just to Simon's point, I think what I would look for in a full-fledged currency war as a first sign is the Hong Kong dollar and HSBC simply because this is an underlooked issue. I think a lot of people are focusing right now on Taiwan. I think the focus right now should be on Hong Kong dollar and Hong Kong dollar DPEG. There was a story a long time ago of China trying to pack the Hong Kong dollar to the yuan. I think this story is going to get

accelerated simply because it could serve as a mini kamikaze and as a first declaration, as first flex of China. I think this is a very underlooked story and it really shows how much the US-based traders really understand the connection between China and the US. And this is a central story. I see very little coverage of this. I see very little attention to this story, but this is a major story and could be like a major play in whatever we see next and how this will affect

the equities market, the long-term bond yields, etc. So this is something that I just wrote an article about it, so I invite you to to look at it for a deeper analysis. Did we lose Scott? I think Scott jumped off. Yeah, it looks like we lost Scott. So I wanted to go to some of the hands. Yeah, I wanted to go ahead, Adam, get your hand out. Go for it if you wanted to debate. Adam, did you want to say something? Adam, did you want to say something?

Yes. Second. Yes, thanks. Okay. So I want to just sort of pick up a little on what Jonathan was talking about and as the current administration, banks, etc. So one of the beautiful things that's unfolding right now is the picking apart of choke point 2.0, which as everyone knows was an effort by regulators and then banks doing in a way the work of regulators to debank crypto platforms.

And this is slowly, slowly coming. The truth of light is showing what was going on and it's being taken apart. My perspective, because I deal with banks every day helping clients get banking and crypto and payments, is that the banks are no longer considering crypto as complete no-fly. On the contrary, I've heard, dealt with institutions that are like, let's go, head over heels, we're going all the way in on this. And my view is, is perhaps there'll be an administration down the road that is less friendly to crypto.

But by the time we get there, crypto will be entrenched in the financial system. And I think this is for the good. And I don't think it's going to destroy the banks. I think the banks are going to jump on the stablecoin bandwagon because finally they're being allowed to. They're going to custody stablecoin. They're going to custody crypto and they're going to get busy doing all their financial services and God bless them for it, loans, credit cards, mortgages, you name it, car leases in stable coin using their existing risk

parameters and their existing knowledge of that kind of industry where they add value. But these new entrants and these platforms that can move value more quickly, more efficiently, more securely are going to finally, I guess, be integrated with the traditional financial system. I think it's fantastic. Briefly back on the macro topic, with M2 rising, there's, you know, I'm not an expert, it's not financial advice, but I don't see a version of the story where Bitcoin doesn't just keep going up and up. And then finally on the currency topic, we saw the flash crash of the Chinese currency in the past few days, that's a clear indicator of

where confidence lies. And at the end of the day, if you're selling goods around the world, those goods are going to be priced in US dollars. And so is your stablecoin, not in some basket of foreign currencies. So sorry to be all over the place, but thanks for the minute. You there, Scott, or should we jump in? I was gonna say, I think it's the wrong word

to say a flash crash. That was a strategic weakening by design to offset tariffs in a currency war. The flash crash was the US dollar. It crashed 2%. That is wild. And there was massive inflows into the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen. China weakening its currency is a tool in the currency war, it's not a flash crash around confidence. But I do agree, putting a few things together, things will be priced in dollars, and stablecoins is the mechanism for ensuring that that actually happens. Because right now, the banks probably got a bunch of credit suites is already calling up the Fed saying Trump reverse retreat,

you are breaking banking. And that was not by design. And so the the banks and financials. Sorry, you know? I don't think Trump's actually trying to... Breaking banking is the end. Breaking banking is the end of the American and European empire. It would be the biggest disaster that could ever happen to Americans, American stocks. You are 1000%, two trillion over leveraged and dependent upon the fractional reserve banking system. Breaking the European and American banking system would be the end of America as you know it today.

Again, don't want to be parabolic, but no, he's not breaking banking. In fact, bankers are making a shit ton of money because they were being forced to compete with Elon, Zuckerberg, Trump, Bezos, that are all technology plays that are about to be issued stablecoins. And if you look at the White House, there were all the bankers celebrating that Charles Schwab, thanks to Trump giving inside information on what he's about to tweet made a billion dollars out of people yesterday. The banks are not being taken down. The banks are being co-opted into our system.

And so the banks are in, I agree. It's not going to take out the banks, but it is a radically different model. And technology companies and banks are now the future of the dollar. It will be a stable coin and it is a radically different level of profitability that the banks are able to make from this model. So everything becomes a data play and it is a very changing financial system. But no, Trump's definitely not taken out the banks.

Trump is bought by banks. His number one backer is, well, the number one backer was Elon Musk, and the second largest backer is the Mellon banking family. So yeah, there is radical changes through this deregulation and this change of regime across the regulators in order to build a model where the banks and the technology companies coexist and stable coins and crypto is is is really a part of it. Hopefully you guys can hear me now I was stuck massively in a glitch. But if you can, Jonathan, go ahead. Yeah, just go like a little further into like the macro side of things,

not really worried about the United States losing a trade war, because they control the oceans. And that's been the case of economics, world economics for centuries. Whoever controls the water controls the world's trade. That's the reason why that little itty bitty island off the coast of Europe had control of the whole globe's trade because they controlled the waterways. They controlled how trade was operated. And if the US Navy is not out there, basically funding and subsidizing the security of the trade waterways, everything goes to shit. So as long as that's still going

on and the US Navy is still protecting world trade, things are going to be in the US's favor. Wait, Jonathan, did you just say that you think that the US Navy is going to use aircraft carriers and submarines to stop pirates from coming after Nike shoes? And that's why everything's okay? No. No. That's what that's exactly. That's exactly what you said.

They police the whole body, all the waters of the trade routes. So pirates don't get them. But to help you. Yeah, it's the coast of Africa. But for no time in human history as pirates have been kind of more of a moot point than since the, since the Navy's had control of all the ocean waterways. Good or bad, that's just been how the Kings are. Yeah. So if you're watching the ports right now, America sold all of its ports to Black Rock. So

26 ports are being negotiated with China right now around the world. America is at war in the Red Sea to protect the Suez Canal and its special interests. If you can't see that there are major changes, just look at what's happening in the Panama Canal right now. America is using its facts that BlackRock is a major controller of the US economy in order to make sure because now it owns 26 of the different strategic ports. But BlackRock is a global multinational financial institution that is not just an America first institution.

It's China, America, Middle East. It is a global institution and it owns the ports because America sold all of its key assets to global finance. So then China comes along and says, how do we stop BlackRock from taking over the port? It stops the Hong Kong investor and that Hong Kong investor, because China is working in the interest of its country, while Trump is negotiating on behalf of BlackRock, 26 of those different ports are being renegotiated. And there's a reason why Trump escalated the war in the Red Sea,

because these ports are being renegotiated right now. So that power struggle is changing as we speak. Yes, Simon, and to your point, this conflict between Hong Kong and China and Li Ka-ching, who is obviously the biggest landlords in Hong Kong, and the owner of the shipping company that was sold to BlackRock, etc. China is not happy about that. And China really looks at Hong Kong as like a weak link. And literally, because I mean, we used to live there, remember?

I mean, Hong Kong completely changed. And I think there would be like a last sacrifice here by completely like, I really think there is something is going to happen in Hong Kong very soon, especially at the currency level. And because it ties into all the shipping strategic port stuff, it ties in Hong Kong is starting to tie into many things, including currency links between the US and China, port logistics, etc. Which are all very strategic things. And I think Hong Kong will be once again sacrificed to advance the Chinese agenda. Yeah, I think people are making a mistake of thinking that Trump's in control,

BlackRock is in control, and BlackRock and other financial institutions. The whole of America has been financialized, sold, and all politicians are sold and bought for. America is completely controlled. Even $27 trillion of its assets are owned by China. Like the entire most most American assets are owned by China, Middle Eastern money, BlackRock, global financial institutions. And they are asset stripping in order to decide to move over to a more stable recalibration of where their money is flowing at the moment. It's not Trump. Trump is doing what he's paid to do by his backers and just put a MAGA narrative on top of it

to make it acceptable to Americans. Everyone, I'm sorry. I'm having such bad glitching, I can't even host this. Spaces is all over the place for me, so we're going to have to go ahead and wrap this one a little earlier and come back on Monday and try again. Thank you to all our guests. I'm sure we'll have no lack of topics to talk about.

We'll see you guys on Monday. Thanks so much. Bye.