The Wolf Of All Streets - Trump Pumps Bitcoin: Is The Crypto Strategic Reserve Finally Coming? | Macro Monday

Episode Date: March 3, 2025

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We had another one of those exceptionally boring weekends in crypto where nothing happens. Or we had Donald Trump go on Truth Social and say that there's going to be a strategic crypto reserve, including assets like XRP, Cardano, Solana, and then, oh, by the way, in the tweet a little bit later, we'll also probably have Ethereum and Bitcoin. If you had any doubt that Donald Trump's actions and words control the crypto market, then think again. What he does pumps and dumps the market back and forth for better or for worse, even in the face of macro, which is our conversation every Monday.

I cannot wait to have this talk with Mike, Dave and James here at Macro Monday. Let's go. What is up everybody, I'm Scott Melfer also known as the Wolf of All Streets. Before we get started, please subscribe to the channel and hit that like button. Gonna bring on the gentlemen right now. We've got Dave, James and Mike. Not a boring weekend. We love our Sunday news, but I'm gonna first give us a table setting here and go to Mike

who is in Bill Barr Height's living room. It's my favorite background that Bill Barheight always uses with piano. And break down what happened in the morning meeting just to sort of give us some context for our conversation. So I'm in the great state of Indiana this week. I'm going to the All Day Ag Outlook tomorrow. It's the best conference on the planet. It costs 40 bucks and food is worth 50. But the key thing about the morning meeting is significant. I'm glad we're starting there is our two chief strategists, our female strategists, I have nothing but the most respect for Anna Wong and Gina Martin-Anna just came out swinging. So if you're bullish risk assets, you probably should listen to them. Anna

thinks the non-farm payroll number is going to shoot to around 65 and the shock risk is it's going to be weak. Her key reasons were bad weather, expiration of pandemic stimulus, and Trump's funding squeeze. She's pointing out that the states are forecasting 6% funding reduction. This is typically a time of year you build payrolls, but she's pointing out big bag on payrolls, Fed funding potentially decreased in the states, could be a massive negative number for payrolls. You know, it was two months ago she nailed it. So I'm honest, swinging hard that we're going to have a weak payrolls number might last

a little while. At the same time, Gina Martin Adams, who's been, again, in my, you know, I just bothered in general direction having nailed this stock market rally for years, so sentiment is too exuberant, it's maniac earnings working against the cycle. 2024 had been marked peak earnings, too much earning optimism, the Mag-7 lost all leadership,

only Meta's still hanging in there, home builders are breaking down, consumer sentiment's turning downward, we're losing cyclical momentum, and only the financials are powering forward. So from the morning meeting, quite the bearish outlook from a US economic expansion standpoint. And I'll just put my view in is,

I think it's an example of the extreme optimism of the return of President Trump to the presidency is turning over into just a normalization, a realization that the world's largest demand pull money printing machine on the planet's cutting back significantly expects some discombobulation in risk assets. Yeah, the fiscal dominance has ended, right? So they're just not spending hand over fist out of DC anymore.

We saw that if you look back at all the hiring numbers, the jobs numbers for the last two years, there were massive amounts of those numbers are coming out of the government, right? The huge percentage of the hiring was coming out of the government. So it's a big deal. And I think Anna's right in that we're going to see a couple of surprises out of this. The question is what's on the other side of it and whether we can have deregulation and unrestricting companies to hire and expand their own balance sheets. If that's going to be some sort of offset. That's gonna take some time though.

Yeah, just before we go to move on to Dave and to other topics, I mean, Mike, I just showed this, the Zipper pair has unveiled China stimulus plan as trade work, he's up saying they're still gonna be repeating it. The bullish growth goal of about 5%, good luck. And of course, Trump's ever rising tariffs will challenge the impact of this stimulus. But we may be in a period of pseudo austerity here with Doge in the United States, but China's about

to sprint like never before. So they have that's I'm glad you brought that up. That's a key thing to remember about China. You have to expect massively increasing fiscal monies to monetary stimulus just for risk assets and markets in that country to just remain stable. So those of us remember trading JGBs, Japanese government bonds, 30 years ago when they were collapsing and everybody says, oh, they're bottoming. I've seen this before, 1.77% and that Chinese 10-year note yield. China's collapsing.

Now you're seeing the only reason they're staying upward is because they're still able to export a little bit, massive fiscal monies to their stimulus, but you have to depend on it. And now who are they going to export to? We have Germany's pretty much third year now heading towards recession, UK heading towards recession, US is cutting it off. This fortress North America that Scott Fessett mentioned with China, with the US, Canada, and Mexico all ratch, ratching up exports in China, which is not underestimated what's happening in this country. And then I've just enjoyed the estimate, what I've learned from some people really, you know, from my colleagues

pointing out, by the way, we have a country of only child children, you know, only children, and the, the population is declining. There's a little bit of a psychology there that's just very negative. And all I hear is about hoarding and saving as much as possible. They have to stimulus just to stabilize, to stimulate. So, and I look at that as, and I also point out

from a commodity standpoint, you have to depend on China stimulus. You have to depend on more cuts from OPEC. You have to depend on less supply in terms of crude oil and grains and stuff from the US. Otherwise, we're gonna get with commodities normally, go lower. And that's how I have to tilt over to what I know best. I see pretty significant forces kicking in, particularly if the US stock market just has, yeah, maybe it gets to that 200 day moving average, which Bitcoin did last week. It was a perfect technical little backup. You do have to say, listen, we had the debate many times, Mike, and we kept saying,

why not Ethereum 2000? There we go. We got Ethereum 2000. Pretty damn close. So yeah, we did get 200 MA on Bitcoin on the daily chart. One of the craziest weekly candles you'll ever have. I think we opened the week at 96,000 dropped as low as 78,000. So an $18,000 spread and closed right back at 94,000. If you literally fell on your head last Sunday and woke up yesterday, you wouldn't know that there was any volatility. You had basically almost a $20,000 candle and opened and closed within $2,000. I mean, Dave insanity.

I mean, I want to comment on the week, and I want to talk about the fact that it is not priced in what happened yesterday. It's not even close. But I think it really needs some commentary on what Mike and James just said. So first, the majority of what Mike's strategist, the Bloomberg strategist is saying I agree with.

I think the economy is gonna be weak and gonna sustain weakness. I think that in the trenches, people need to understand how the Musk stuff and the Trump stuff is being portrayed by the actual people in the government and how the states are reacting. And that is significantly larger than most people think.

So we have a family friend whose son it was getting close to was over a year into his two year FBI training as an agent. His managers, because he was on probation, his manager said, well, all people on probation are at risk and therefore if you hit the resign button You don't have to pay us back the fifty five thousand dollars that you'd be getting that you would ordinarily have to pay back If you quit while we're training you because they put a lot of effort into training agents And you'll get paid through September, but if you don't and we fire you you get nothing meanwhile

You know he has expenses etc. So he hit the refine button. Now, I am very confident that Elon Musk's idea was not to take highly trained, expensive people who they're going to want and have them be gone. But that is exactly how it's gotten implemented. So all the people who are being trained throughout the federal government for technical and other jobs, there's going to be a massive shortage. They're going to be rushing to hire these people back in a little while because it's what they actually want. But the amount of money that's gonna come out of people

and the amount of job losses are going to be severe. That said, when you, at the end of the day and the dust clears, you're going to have a situation where you have significantly less drag on the economy. Because the other thing that is very true is economies, what's the biggest drag on any economy of spending? It's called fraud. So we have a lot of money.

And if you read, if you listen to what Elon was talking about over the weekend in terms of the NGO fraud, if anyone who's listened to Mike Ben's overtime knows that billions, we're talking hundreds of billions of dollars have been getting stolen to go to a lot of it, ending up in politicians and politicians' families' hands. That money is all going to get deployed for productive use. And that is a very big deal because the one thing this administration does not want is they do not want to bring down the economy.

What they want to do is deregulate and have private hiring, but they're not necessarily talking about a budget that's a decrease in the deficit. That's just not true. So you're gonna see this. Now at the same time, the Fed is gonna have every opportunity to say, oh, wait a minute, look at all this weakness.

And so I euphemistically would be joking, printer is coming. James may be saying fiscal dominance is ending. That's not absolutely not true. There's no projection of a balanced budget without something around 10% growth, right, which we're not. I meant what I meant was that the the the fiscal driving of the US economy is kind of ending.

So we're going to, you know,'s gonna have to be picked up somewhere. And that may be just an added liquidity, but we know that Trump is not, he's not gonna stand for the market to fall on his watch. He's gonna do whatever he can to juice the market because he looks at the stock market, he talks about the stock market almost every single day of his administration.

It's a level of his, you know, it's kind of a measure of his ego. Well, I mean, yes, although I think that they understand that there's going to be a step back before you get a step forward. My point is we're talking this show, let's face it, our audience is mostly crypto. And so I've been talking about what could cause Bitcoin and crypto to de link from the absurd earnings expectations of the stock market since we started this show. And I'm basically laying out a thesis that it is going to delink in 2025. That is really what I think. And I think when I say crypto, I do not include memes,

I do not include bullshit. And we'll talk about that. Sorry. I don't mean to interrupt, but when you have a $18,000 Bitcoin candle spread, altcoins having 60 to 70% volatility downside and back up, aren't we delinked? That didn't happen in the stock market last time I checked. No, well, that's kind of my point. My point is a lot of the action is delinked, but let's understand, and we're going to get into it later, price drivers. When you have news over the weekend, then the dominant price setters are the speculators, the leverage speculators in the Bitcoin market.

The dominant price setters in about 15 minutes in Bitcoin for the rest of the day are going to be institutional flows because that's what's been the dominant price setter for, you know, all. And there's going gonna be institutional flows into Solana and XRP and maybe even Cardano. And we'll talk about that. But I just, you know, on the macro side, I just wanna lay out my macro thesis.

My macro thesis is that the stock market, which depends at the end of the day, has to depend upon earnings, right? You know, are they, are these companies, the big company is gonna be the biggest beneficiaries of Trump and the answer to that is a resounding no. Because deregulation helps level the playing field and creates disruption, innovation and allows competition.

And so to assume that the largest company, the so-called Mag-7 are gonna be the ones that make the most money out of what's going on is, I think, wrong. Now these things take a lot of time. This is not a one week sort of thing, but you need to understand that the stock market writ large is different than the stock market under a financialized world where the only people who make money are the biggest companies. I mean, you know, it really is that. If you look at what they're trying to do, they're trying to free innovation in AI, they're trying

to free, they want American manufacturing. Who are the American manufacturers that benefit from a reboot of American manufacturers? Seriously, who? I mean, Mike, you know, what companies, if Trump is going to figure out a way to reboot American manufacturing by getting rid, working with states to effectively get rid of the enormous amount of red tape that makes it more expensive to create rolled steel in America than to ship coal and iron to Japan or China and have it returned back over the ocean back to us, which of course is absurd. But we still need materials from those other countries. We live in a global world now.

I understand, but we're one of them. But we are one of the most, if not the most, self-sufficient natural resource countries in the world. The most, by far. And so it's worth understanding. The point on all this is, is that when you invest, you have to understand what the drivers are. And I have a very strong inner bias

to agree with Mike on the stock market. And I have a very strong inner bias to think that we are reaching a very interesting moment in the history of Bitcoin. And those two things are colliding. So let's just talk quickly about why this announcement is a big deal. I'm going to start with Eric Trump because Eric Trump is crowing about how cool it was

that exactly this is the tweet. Now, let's think about this. It's like a fine wine. Let's kind of, you know, understand and appreciate the notes in this in this tweet, what what is he actually saying? What he's basically saying is, isn't it cool that dad can manipulate the market? Because the only people who are going to respond are the D gens who are going to of course be crazy and what they're doing. That's really what he's saying. You know, this was designed for maximum market impact. And you have to you have to appreciate what that means.

Just like launching a meme token on a Friday night. It is that. It is also however, very clear understanding that something that you and I have both said, and I've said this on the show multiple times. If one invests in a product and one trades a product without understanding that the single most powerful human being on the planet wants you to win

or wants you to lose, you got a problem. You have to be cognizant of that. Just like we always said, don't fight the Fed, right? Why? Well, because if the Fed pulls all the liquidity out of the stock market, everything's gonna go down. If they throw a lot of liquidity in, it's gonna go up. When you have the president of the United States wanting an asset class to do well as a barometer of his success, don't be on the other side of that trade. And that's something we've said before. And honestly, I don't really care about that so much as legitimizing the asset class in people who are willing to follow along. And so that's really what's happening here. Yeah, there's so much to unpack here.

Just so we don't take for granted that everybody actually knows what the news is. I'm assuming you don't live under wraps, but on Truth Social, Donald Trump basically, I don't know if you call it truthing or tweeting, I don't know what you do on Truth Social, but he basically announced that the US crypto reserve will be coming.

A lot of people mistook this for a new executive order, but to be clear, this is part of the original executive order on crypto, but in this case, A, he said crypto reserve for the first time ever, right? We had strategic asset stockpile, we had a Bitcoin mention, and he said XRP, Solana and Cardano would be included for those who aren't keeping up. David Sachs, very early investor in Solana, Charles Hoskinson, close to the administration now with ADA and of course, Garlinghouse and Ripple giving a ton of

money. So a lot of people pointing to those things because the reason we would have these three, you went on later to say, oh, and of course Bitcoin. Yeah. David Sachs also said he sold everything. Right. So maybe he had, I mean, it's possible. David Sachs also said he sold everything, right? Right, so maybe he had. I mean, it's possible. So I'm just saying that's kind of driving the narrative behind why a lot of people are assuming that these are the assets.

But to Dave's point, this happened on a Sunday. It's the first time we're really getting crypto reserve. And of course it's sending Bitcoin Max splits into mental gymnastics to figure out why these other assets exist. You guys might not remember this, but I literally tweeted this over a month ago. Strong rumor. Don't shoot the messenger, but hearing it through reliable channels, the strategic stockpile they're discussing is Bitcoin

and XRP. Not a joke. I knew that because I saw the private chats of Bitcoin maximalists who are close to the administration freaking out and not talking about it publicly. But here we are, James, like we have a yeah, that's also add though that he followed up because of, I think maybe because of a lot of hate that he got immediately on that, on that post, he followed up with another tweet that said that Bitcoin and Ethereum would be at the heart of the reserve, right? Which I think he just, you know, listen, he doesn't like plan these things, but I think everyone's default was he was adding these to Bitcoin and Ethereum, or at least a Bitcoin, maybe not even Ethereum wasn't default. But the point is, listen, like, I kind of tweeted this, you need a strategy for altcoins moving forward, it seems like a reasonable one is just buy whatever Trump talks about or whatever World Liberty Financial purchases. So the exact same reason Dave just said, right?

If there's a personal incentive for these assets to go up. But I mean, James, listen, you're the closest to Bitcoin Max, unless we have. What do you think of these other assets being reserved? Listen, I love altcoins. I don't think any asset should be a reserve asset beyond Bitcoin. It makes no sense.

We should just start adding tech stocks. Exactly. So, you know, having other assets that are basically securities as I mean, why wouldn't you put Apple in there? You know, why wouldn't you put Nvidia in there? To me, it's not any different. And so the only digital asset that we have is true digital asset that we have is Bitcoin. That's the one that is it can't be manipulated. We all understand this on this show. It's funny because even Peter Schiff had tweeted about this yesterday saying that, and I think that Maximalist got this a little bit wrong too. They're like, oh, Peter's become, he'ser. And, you know, because he said, I understand the argument that

Bitcoin is digital gold, gold should be a strategic reserve asset. So the argument is that Bitcoin should be a strategic reserve asset. I understand that I do not understand how there's any argument for any of the other alternative coins like the altcoins or any of the other cryptocurrencies to be included. of coins like the altcoins or any of the other cryptocurrencies to be included. And so of course, a lot of Bitcoiners kind of seized on that tweet saying, he gets it, he's going to be a Bitcoiner. He does not get it.

He's not going to be a Bitcoiner. I spoke with him. I spoke with him privately for a while in the green room after a pretty heated debate down in New Orleans. And he has absolutely no interest in supporting Bitcoin any way, shape or form. He cannot stand it, but he understands the argument that we have for it. So just to be clear, that was something I developed yesterday. But yeah, and in that way, I do believe that Bitcoin is digital gold 2.0 plus and

it's so much more than that and it will become money. But the the the argument to have to include any of those other securities, it just doesn't make any sense to me. I agree. Okay, first of all, they're not security. So let's let's let's right now. I'm you understand where I'm coming from? No, I do. Look, let me see. I think I can't remember who's. Right now I'm you understand where I'm coming from. No, I do. Look, let me get this. I think I can't remember who it was. So I'm gonna be paraphrasing,

but there are a few interesting tweets. There was one, it might've been Nick. I don't know. Anyway, look, the argument is very simple. And I don't know, I'm not gonna make any personal decisions on whether it's right or not, And I don't know, I'm not gonna make any personal decisions on whether it's right or not, other than to say I don't fight things. I expected this, if one looked at my portfolio,

one would understand that I expected this because I have Solana and XRP as my next two biggest holdings. Ether is pretty far down the list for a bunch of reasons. I do, roughly a Paracus with Cardano, believe it or not. But that's how I've been positioned for a while. So am I doing okay? Fine, whatever. Yesterday was a good day. Do I really care? No, because what has to happen is what happens in the future. But the reason, the argument is something that is important. Now the argument is that layer ones that will get used for applications, Apple is an application if you think about it, layer ones that will get used for applications that will be fundamental in verticals going forward that will be transformative, whether that be financial, whether that be art, whether that be real estate, whether that be music, whatever.

There's lots of verticals where people have- Tokenization of anything, right. That's right. So if you listening to the Larry Finks of the world talk about tokenization of everything, and you know all of the systems and the internet of value are going to be using different base layers that are more that win,

then having stockpiles of those things might make sense. Now, do I think it's premature? Yes, I do, because there are no applications that have been built yet. Is this, you know, attempting to kickstart that and give advantages to people who just happen to also be in the administration, around the administration, or whatever?

Yes, but the concept of owning that in the same way we have a, everyone knows about the strategic petroleum reserve, in the same way we have a strategic cheese reserve, it could actually make sense. But it is what it is. I mean, if this is something that's going to happen, it needs to be built upon that. It's the same concept of if someone said to you, you could own a piece of TCP IP and have a tiny little toll every time someone uses the internet, would you own it?

That's the argument. And whether you agree with it or not, that's the argument. It can't be just- Should be? But, okay. But we don't know that TCP IP is gonna win in this argument. It can't be just but Is is gonna win in this argument we don't know 100%

It's betting on 20 TCP IPs and hoping the winner exactly correct so That I completely agree with that and and I don't disagree with that even slightly The point is that that is what we're facing and that's the arguments. But when you look at it from a Bitcoin perspective, it's really, it's far simpler. There are a couple of options for doing this. There are three different options for building a Bitcoin strategic reserve that might happen, okay?

The one that everyone focused on, the US may buy some. Okay, I actually don't think that they will necessarily but it doesn't matter. There are two other- But by the way, they would have to buy XRP. I don't think they have any. Yeah, that's right. But there are two-

And that's not, I don't think that's on the list of assets. One of these, it was either ADA or XRP is not on the list or Solana is not on the list of assets that they have and would basically just be able to transfer over. So when it was just Bitcoin, there was the argument which you're about to make that we could just hold the Bitcoin that's already no, now you got it. Yeah, because now we got to buy it. Okay, so there are two other ways they can acquire Bitcoin, right? And I'm fairly confident they're going to do both. Option number one is do what Texas is doing. You play a tax game.

You say you can pay your taxes. And this, by the way, applies to Solana. This applies to XRP. This applies to Cardano. They're gonna say you can pay your taxes in these four cryptos, and you don't have to pay capital gains on the disposition of that. So if you have appreciated crypto, you

could pay it full in it is there is tons of precedent for this, most notably the fact that if you donate to a charity, you can donate the full amount of it and get the full write off. So we know that that's true, it is highly likely that that will be the compromise that comes out of all of this. And think about the implication of that, because that makes sense. That way the US government doesn't spend a penny of the deficit, and they don't lose anything.

And oh, by the way, as this is happening, the prices will almost certainly be going higher. So that's number one. And I strongly suspect that that's what they're going to do, unless they're dumber than I think they are. And I think these are actually quite smart people who are doing who are the ones who are whispering. Give us two because I got to ask Mike a question in a minute. Bitcoin, it applies. There was just a research paper out, but it's something that we already knew peer review that pretty much is is dispositive on the fact that Bitcoin mining is very useful

for grid stabilization. One of the biggest pieces of infrastructure that this administration needs to start tackling or we're in deep, deep trouble is our national electric grid, which is in serious trouble and seriously under capacity, particularly if you wanted to do some of the stuff that Biden wanted to do. This should actually be bipartisan. How in God's name are we going to stabilize the electric grid? We have the federal government doing

significant investments in electric grid infrastructures and the most obvious one of that is for the federal government to push into Bitcoin mining. They have tons of extra data center space that's been built over the years. They have access to stranded energy and they're going to be investing in the electric grids. I would expect to see Bitcoin mining being part of the governmental portfolios, even if it because it's dual use sort of thing. And no one's talking about that. But the data is incredibly strong on this. Now, they don't want to compete with private industry, I understand that, so it might very well be public-private partnerships that will implement it, but you have to believe that that proof of work mechanism for stabilizing grids is going to end up creating that entry point. Just like the government of Bhutan, I'm not saying Bhutan is the leading edge here, but that their way of accumulating Bitcoin is via mining

I think that you I would be really surprised if we don't see that but And we got to hear from Mike because we just keep running over on each other here, but There's for everybody listening there. There's Paths that are very fast and those are executive order paths. They can happen instantly. And then there are legislative paths, and they will take forever. And no matter how much, you know, the, our current administration wants to railroad things through legislatively, it's not going to happen. I was, I was talking to Senator Lummis about this in New York City just a couple days ago. And the reality is that the vast majority of congressmen and senators,

they don't understand what we're talking about here today. They have no idea. And the amount of education that's going to have to occur to get support and to get votes on something like the Bitcoin Act is going to take time. It's just reality. So even close, they are not even close to getting this passed. You can tell it now in the words, you can tell it in the way this is being discussed. You can see it being rejected by the first five states that have had the opportunity

to do it. While Llamas is still saying this is most likely to happen at the state level and not at the national level. So we have to just basically do it on the Trump executive order right now to your point. But Mike, this is what I wanna know. So you see this price action on Bitcoin over a weekend effectively,

or even throughout this week, right? This massive correction, everybody calling for 70, new bear market, one tweet or truth, and we're back up to where we started. Right? So how do you put that in context of focusing on macro and this being just another risk asset, we're going to have so much volatility even within the context of basically nothing happening in the macro.

It's hard to make an argument that, you know, what happened with copper this week was the reason that we saw this Bitcoin retracement, for example. Right. The biggest bounces happen in bear markets. Bitcoin's unchanged in the year. I think, Dave, I say good luck, Dave, I think you're going to be fundamentally wrong that when the stock market goes down, things like Dogecoin and Shibulino are going to lock zeros off the valuation, all these things. To me, the crypto markets are indicative of dot com bubble almost exactly peaked 25 years ago today. Yes, I enjoy these tweets from Trump.

I'm glad they're picking winners. And there's only, good news, there's only 34,000 less than the coin market cap. There used to be 12 million. They changed that, I think, because people like me were making fun of it too much. How do you think you're going to judge this, gentlemen? How do you think you're going to judge this gentleman? Good job, Mike. How do you think you're going to judge this? It might be good in the short term, but our government, our president who was smart enough

to tilt and realize that, yes, this technology is awesome. Why is the, you know, tether, the US dollar, the number one trader crypto today at 166, you know, a billion on a one day basis of trading? Because the technology is awesome But now we're talking about pets.com valuation prices that are just shockingly Expensive history is not going to judge as well. We need to at least see what's Let's talk Agreed to adjust our views when the SMB 500 at least kisses its 200 day movement average hasn't done that in the year and a

Half it'll do it just like Bitcoin did last week and don't underestimate what the space is. It's tremendous for trading by low We got low last week. It was great 200 day movement average. We got high last year. It was great when everybody got extremely enthusiastic, but I would say Allocate into this space maybe other than Bitcoin is digital gold is just silly and I say good luck because you're investing in things that have Some of them have no value, no earnings, and they're just extraordinarily expensive. And we saw what happened after the dot com bubble. Yeah, it turned out great.

Amazon was great after it went down 90%. So I know you got to interrupt me, Dave, but this is silly. Good luck. When we get back. I'm not interrupting you. I actually agree with you. I just have to say, yeah, in context of that, Mike,

the only thing I would say is that, you know, the difference between the dot com bubble is that we have like a dot com bubble every 24 hours in this space. These things, the 12 million that you point at don't need like an entire bubble to burst because they're their own bubbles. They're built that way, right? They just go up, they're down. So those 12 million things have already gone to zero, which is why coin market cap has to be listed It's not like most of these assets that you point to have retained value even the 35 000 are listed I would venture most of them are over 90 off their all-time highs So let's look at existing trends that we pointed this out before what stops bitcoin dominance to going to 90? What's the last peak the 74? We need to see the normalization in the stock market that's the most expensive versus market

capital, the GDP in our lifetime. It's over 100 years. And we're just starting to find the realization of what really pumped it up, massive excessive spending from US governments being shut off. It's just silly, but that's like- No, that's not true. That's the first thing you said I disagreed with. Well, part of it. I mean, definitely part of it.

What started Tesla? Tesla's part of a government plan. So let me just point out the valuations I see from a macro standpoint. I think copper has peaked. I think crude oil has peaked. I think corn has peaked. I think natural gas has peaked.

I need good reasons for them to go higher. And I see gold continue to appreciate, but if you look at just two key facts, gold is the most expensive versus U.S. Treasury long bond in our database going back 30 years and same with the stock market So that's why I keep tilting over to where's the value is maybe things like that that I've been wrong on for two years Just catches up to the yields in the rest of the world made me like China 1.76 a little bit of normalization That's what I'm worried about is that's the next big trade and then you might have a chance to Dick into dip into some of these cryptocurrencies that still I see, you know, actually a theorem was great

It bounced from 2000 maybe gets a 3000 but to me eventually the range risk as it goes down So yeah, it's three things there. There are three pieces of information that that or you noted there I actually agree with two of them three pieces of information that are denoted there. I actually agree with two of them on the edges. It was not the US fiscal dominance that's doing it. It's the printing of money and the denominator, right. And we always have to talk about the denominator, the amount of dollars in circulation, you know, writ large, but let's not work quibble about that. I agree on a lot of what you're saying, but there are a couple of things here. Number one, and most important, my thesis, which I have been trumpeting, is that that from Trump's election, is that crypto assets that can provide economic value to their holders, or at least have a roadmap for doing that are the ones that are going to attract growth and the ones that don't are going to become pets.com. It is that simple. In the internet bubble, we saw this

and for people who don't understand, the amount of excesses was insane. You're talking about companies that didn't, that, you know, Swan Valley snowmobiles being going to net taxi being worth hundreds of millions of dollars, you know, from hundreds of thousands of dollars instantly. We saw this and and a lot of things happen. The other thing that happened is people learned how crazily stupid they were for dumping companies that actually did have a path to profitability.

And they allowed the Amazon holders of the world or people to buy in at the bottom. They sold that. I can't tell you how many people I know that said, I can't believe I sold my Amazon down 90% or down 50% or down 80% when it then went up by a thousand percent, 10, thousand percent afterwards. People learn, they don't fight the same war, they fight the last war. People understand. And so,

we keep waiting for crypto to go down. My theory is the reason crypto insanity. I mean, when I look at coin market cap, I'm not different than Mike. I see whatever, let's pick, you know, stuff that makes no sense to me. I see, and I'm gonna rile people up, I see Bitcoin Cash at $6.7 billion. I don't know if there's ever going to be a utility for Bitcoin Cash, right? I see, you know, I see things like, let's go through, where are we?

Where's the various, say, you have to go down pretty far to start finding non. I mean, you got meme coins. You know, you got billions of dollars in meme. I gotta, you gotta go on memes for a second because it's hard to find them now. So Shiba Inu is still $8 billion. Unless they can resurrect Shebarium and actually do something.

I don't see why that's worth $8, much less $8 billion in the end. So I know that I'm offending people. I don't really care. I mean, you know, people want to yell at me about their project. That's fine. But you look through these things. If Pepe doesn't turn into a media franchise and with the ability for the token holders

to get access to it, it will be zero. And that's the thing about about memes. They'll go up, they'll go down. But eventually the music stops because they're their fads. Talks about it. I agree with that. And when you look through crypto, we know that of the hundred or so layer ones that are on that list, that probably a handful will have value. And we don't know because if you were looking in 2000 that are on that list that probably a handful will have value. And we don't know because if you were looking in 2000 and you know you were thinking Yahoo or Lycos these are names that people probably have to go look up or ask Jeeves was going

to win the internet search game. Guess what the company that won the internet search game wasn't public yet. You didn't even know about it. I mean smart people knew about it because Google was building. But the fact is, we don't know what these things and that's kind of your point. That doesn't mean the entirety of the market cap isn't going to be substantially higher than it is today. It means we don't know. Now, when you look at Bitcoin, and so if you believe, by the way, that Solana is going to be the base layer for financial markets, then it's dramatically undervalued.

It's not even close to being fairly valued. But if you believe that it isn't, then it's the utmost obvious short. It's very binary. The only one here which is different is Bitcoin. And this is something that I said this weekend, which is we've said every time most Bitcoiners, James believes to the core of his being, just like I do, that Bitcoin will reach a price that's paripasoo with the monetary value of gold. We all believe that. We all believe that it will probably go beyond that because for a bunch of different good reasons.

Yet we also use words that, well, it can't happen this cycle because it's too early. Right? Am I wrong, James? No, I mean, it's going to take a while. Right. It's going to take a while. But can I point it out? OK, go ahead. Finish your thought really quick, David.

But the thought is, if most of the sovereign states of the world realize that Bitcoin is something that could go there, isn't that the kind of self reinforcing thing that could make this cycle much more explosive? Absolutely. And it's the game theory that we talk about, but that has not occurred. And now when you have noise around strategic reserves, and what's going to be in there, it kind of muddies the picture for all of the states and all of the sovereigns. And so what are they going to be? It just puts it all in the same mix, you know? So that's confusing. Yeah. I don't see foreign countries feeling compelled because Trump truth yesterday to go start acquiring Cardano. It's not about compelled. It really isn't.

I mean, look, there's not a lot of supply. I wish that there was one of the persons who responded to one of my my my post the other day. I keep wanting to call them tweets, but whatever one of my posts the other day saying that the vast majority of the selling that we saw over the last, you know, few, you know, last week, was all coins held under three months. And what I don't know if that's true or not true. But what I do know is that if more and more Bitcoin is being invested on if the driver are long term buyers, and that driver manifests, then there is a

supply shock coming because the same people who are selling then turn into FOMO buyers on the other side. And that's why our cycles are quite as violent as that. So let's talk about, maybe let's go to maybe a different perspective on this, okay? One thing we know is that like it or not, Trump, the guy, he knows how to make money. He knows how to lose a lot of money too, but he knows how to make money.

And he knows how to manipulate things. Okay. He knows how to manipulate people. We've seen it in a lot of different ways. Okay. So if you just use that as your baseline, you go to first principles. And we talk about game theory all the time. Like how does this actually happen? How does the United States actually go out there and buy Bitcoin without sending this thing to a half a million dollars a coin overnight? How does that happen? Like because the moment they announce they're going to be buying Bitcoin, every single country, every single small country, every single country has their own fiat is going to, the game theory says they have to follow suit, they have to go along, which means that this could be just like you're saying, Scott, explosive. So what if, and I'm not saying that I think this is what is happening, I'm just putting this out there as maybe an alternate theory. What if he's throwing all these other coins in there to muddy the picture so they can go out there and be buying Bitcoin without sending it to a million dollars per coin and have everybody

focus on that one thing. What if they're out there, oh, they're buying, we're buying everything. Meanwhile, they're really focused on buying Bitcoin. I'm not saying that that's what's happening, but. Yeah. Doesn't all this, in the context of the story that kind of came and went, which is obviously the Sovereign Wealth Fund of the United States, and we've discussed it here for a bit with Lutnick. Doesn't all of this make a hell of a lot more sense to put into a sovereign wealth fund and to talk about reserves and stockpiles? With all of this because if there was a sovereign wealth fund that had you know,

six trillion and they could just go do these things like how would they even be buying Bitcoin right now? Exactly. Yeah, yeah, exactly. So well, you'd have to fund it. But you know, if I'm an arbitrage trader, if I'm a hedge fund trader, right, then I have to announce in a filing everything I'm doing before I go and do it, I'm gonna announce a whole bunch of stuff. So you don't know what I'm doing.

I may buy one share of a stock here, one share of a stock there, but I'm gonna announce all kinds of things. So you share of a stock there, but I'm going to announce all kinds of things. So you have no idea, no clue what I'm really doing in the background. That's what I would do. And so it would make sense to me for the US government to muddy the picture and say, you know what, we're going to buy Nvidia and we're going to buy Apple too. You know? Yeah. I'm going to give a much more simple explanation. I'd like Mike's thoughts on it. My explanation is, as you said before,

Trump really knows how to make money, and this is still the Wild West, and his family's gonna make so much money in crypto, and he has the power to effectively, legally make sure that that happens. Manchu Polo 2.0, yeah. Yeah, I'm not, listen, it's my most, it's great for us, but my most cynical view of, is always always my main view and then prove me otherwise

Not just a trump of anyone of anyone But like we can be or my opinion right we can see what world liberty financials doing then we can see the assets that he lists Here, I mean mike and we saw and guys people are going to defend him. It's fine. It's great. Good for him He launched trump and milania tokens, right? I mean, it's not like we haven't seen the gratuitous grift. So Mike, I mean, isn't that the most likely explanation outside of all the game theory and stuff? Is it, this is a really good opportunity for the Trump family to get exceptionally wealthy

for the next few years? Next few generations. I just love when people point out, we're going through these issues with Russia and Ukraine right now, point out they have good negotiators. We're talking about Mr. Trump is the President of the President United States because he's the most clever man on the planet You want to mess with this guy? I don't this is flip on crypto. It's like I bowed his general direction

Yeah, you can help you get elected. The thing is right now though. I keep one I'll stick with some of the things we discussed is yes He's trying to make the price go up higher based on a promise he made to get elected. He doesn't really give a damn about cryptos except they help them get elected. Gets the technology and everything. But the bottom line is we mentioned going peripassu with gold. I pointed out when I still stick with that 100,000 is the threshold in Bitcoin, I think akin to the NASDAQ at 5,000 25 years ago.

To me, that's still the key level for the whole space. And part of that is I remember the things I wrote about months ago is you looked at the quick accumulation of ETFs in Bitcoin. It's the same as ETFs and gold on a risk adjusted base. In fact, they got a little higher. I'm like, okay, that's kind of done. We see the outflows lately. It's done there.

I think, remember, that's done underestimate gold is not just, as Dave points out, it's been demonetized and sealed forever. And a lot of central banks are accumulating. Go ahead, finish. Yeah. So I'll stick with that theory that we've had a bounce from good support and a tactical market. Thanks. It's great for trading. Let's not underestimate what's way be careful with the some of the fundamental things I remember hearing and dot-com bubbles and about some other cryptos and a key lessons of Jeff Booth the Bitcoiners of rapidly advancing technology our government's gonna try to pick winners in cryptos I'm like good luck and within

four years when he's gone it's gonna be the space is rapidly advancing so much to be so many better examples of Solana or maybe even Bitcoin because it's happening so fast I just look at it as massive excess supply, major hubris, a lot of too high prices, completely dependent on the stock market going up. Good luck. Mike, what I have to say is, and this is for you and Dave and myself and James, all of us, because I don't know the exact date, but we got to go back. But I think we're all buying each other steak dinners. I'm going to buy on that one. It's just the fun. This is the Bitcoin to gold ratio. This is the Bitcoin to gold ratio. I believe it was last March or April. So right around here, probably around 30 on that ratio. And then Trump won. Obviously it skyrocketed, but you guys bet, Dave bet, you know, that Bitcoin

would outperform gold for the next year. You made the other side that bet gold. And I think that that remember that you're someone who's zoomed out and looks at this and gold has done just as well as Bitcoin over a year if you take that time. That's what's happening lately and I published on that today. Okay, the Bitcoin top is less of an island top versus gold. It's less of an island top than it was on Friday when I wrote my article and sent it to editors. But we still have that downward trajectory and gold ETFs are just taking off. Four years in a row of outflows. To me, this is the flip. This is the psychological flip and you basically need a strong payroll number in the stock market to do fine. Otherwise, it's overdue. Now you're seeing it in housing, you're seeing it in sentiment. Maybe it's different this time. And seen it in cryptos. Now,

they've had their little bounce. I'm like, good luck. But the key thing was to remember, I want to point out, let's get to the macro here. I still think Bitcoin is more likely to go to 50 than 150. Here's the problem, going to 150 means most risk assets go up, inflation, the risk of the wealth effect, the Fed has to tighten. Remember, they stopped easing partly because the wealth effect last year in the stock market was the greatest ever.

Here's the bet, the tilt is that has to go down in the Fed's stock. I mean, it's what's the key things to make the Fed ease? Number one, stock market going down, number two, unemployment going up. Yeah, but what if they don't ease and they just come up with all kinds of acronyms to help push liquidity into the market instead? Yeah, but okay, that's what's the key thing for that to happen. Number one, Dave said it earlier. Treasuries have to be in trouble. No, well, no, we've learned. Oh, yeah

Okay, what's the number one goal of mr. Besson? Mr. Trump right now is lower yields lower energy I didn't talk to her to talk about the stock market well but the key thing to remember is we've learned the lessons of too much liquidity and Inflation that's the key thing that's different from any single time We pump liquidity in the past Most notably the biggest pump in history, which was 2020 and 2021. If we haven't learned that lesson, it's our fault. But Mike, I think we have learned the lesson, but we don't care. I think that they have learned the lesson, but they just don't care.

We'll see that. Again, we're making judgments. That's my baseball. I'm just pointing out the... Okay, let's get back to that 200-day movement average S&P 500 and see what happens Up maybe what is that level by the way? I haven't even checked. What is that? To be clear i'm not arguing with you about the lessons. I talk about it all the time because it's awful It's it is the the predatory nature of the central banks on on uh, the lower demographics is

Abysmal it's itmal. It's an awful truth. But that doesn't mean that they're going to change the way that they do business. They're going to continue to do what they do because the reward system is set up that way. They're rewarded for it. Who wants to crash the economy, tighten liquidity, and suffer the consequence of being blamed for sending the entire global economy into turmoil? Who wants to do that? Nobody wants to do that. The incentives are not there.

That's the problem. The incentives are not aligned with the reality of what we need to stop this continual demographic diversion, where you've got rich, I mean, the wealthiest who own assets are going to continue to get wealthy. That's just the reality of the system we have set up, which is why I'm... So what happens... Yeah.

So that's a key point. I'm with you on that. The key point I'm making is when we get just the normalization of the very expensive risk assets in this country, most led by cryptos, the most in history, when we get that, that's when the Fed starts easing. And then I'm going to fight that battle that might last a long time. It might start Friday with a bad employment number and unemployment ticking up. But also, what's the doge doing right now? It's shutting down that massive fiscal assets and spending in waste that was way overdue. And I think this is gonna be rather- The Doge was contraction, right? I mean, the Doge is the austerity of a different design, but yeah. Yeah, but the question is,

are we gonna have a slow grind lower because of poor economic news and stagflation, or are we going to have a shock to the system? That's the question. And how quick are they going to react? That's it. How quick are they, how quick are they going to turn off the, you know, the minimal QT they're doing, which is $25 billion a month. It's nothing. They're just letting treasuries roll off the books. I mean, when are we going to, when are we going to have, you know, a new debt ceiling? So, and how much is DOGE really saving us in the long run? And how much of the, is the government going to turn around and spend in the background in order to make

sure that we continue this charade? That's the question. Is it going to be the central bank steps in and prints money? Are they going to have an acronym because of some sort of financial shock, like we saw with, when we had Silicon Valley Bank crash and, and implode? Are we going to, so what is, what is the impetus for them to step in? Is this slow grind lower? If it's slow grind lower than I grew with you, Mike, then they'll just start easing and then everything kind of, and we'll have that kind of hardish landing. But, or is it going to be something that tips it off? And we have a problem that points to an issue with the treasuries, which would be Silicon Valley Bank. What's that, Scott? Slow grind lower would be problematic for the midterms.

They can't have that. They can't have the stock market just kind of slowly drop for 18 months. And so it's gotta be, as you said, it's gotta be a band-aid rip. We gotta get it over with so that in 12 months, nobody remembered it happened. And blame it on the last administration.

Well, it's obviously, you know, it wasn't something I did, but yeah. Doge is band-aiding rip, ripping right now. I was kinda hoping they would do this. I'm shocked they actually did it the way a true good corporation would do, like my father did in the 80s when he helped save a steel company in Chicago.

You've got to rip the band off right away. And they're doing it. Yeah, and now we're seeing that the GDP was revised not just lower but to negative, right? It was it was revised down to minus 1.5. That's crazy. That was the Atlanta Fed, correct? Correct. So, I mean, there's so much uncertainty, which is incredible that the market is still holding in here with all this uncertainty. Gradually then suddenly.

Gradually then suddenly. Yeah, I mean, look, I just keep coming back to a very simple question, which is when you're investing in, and let's ignore the XRP, we'll talk about that probably on Crypto Town Hall, I'm sure Mickle will talk about it. And let's not talk about Solana

because Solana has a huge supply thing, which is how much of the recently unlocked Solana is gonna actually end up on the market right now, I would imagine. That doesn't worry me. Yeah, and I'm not worried in the long run, it's a question of Solana continues its ecosystem to become the You know markets, you know underpinnings then it's gonna be worth a lot more

But Bitcoin the fact that most of the people who are long-term investors in Bitcoin believe it is undervalued by 90% Is very different I don't think there is a human being on the planet that could look themselves in the mirror without laughing and say that they're buying the NASDAQ at what they think is a 90% discount to fair value in today's dollars. Nobody. That is a massive difference. So look, Bitcoin is trading on technicals. Last week, we saw a breakdown. We saw so and I'm very curious to see what Peter thinks Bitcoin just dropped below You know drops just dropped below 90,000. It looks like you know We're gonna reassert the technicals from last week as long as as long as technical traders are in command And there's no supply there's no demand coming through and follow through then we're gonna be very choppy for a while

And that that's you know, that's fine. I mean, you know, I basically said that, you know, 80, that, that 80,000 low was a tradable bottom. I still think it's a tradable bottom. I, that doesn't mean I think we're going straight up to 150, 180 or whatever. I think, I think that, you know, this stuff needs to play itself out, but understand fundamentally, the people who own most of Bitcoin and the ones who are accumulating it,

think it is over 90 percent undervalued. So David, I got to laugh at that statement. That is different. I got to laugh at that statement. Because if you own something, of course you think it's undervalued. Duh. Come on. But 90 percent.

No, Mike. I've only bought one stock in my entire life that I had an in I had a mental price target of 10 X its value And guess what at 10 X? Another e it had something to do with if a particular law changed this company will be worth something and I had people Telling me this law is going to change It was an it was Italian, and so I had friends that had good ends in the Italian government. It was one stock that I knew about that made money, and it was 40 years ago.

Probably today that would be called insider trading, but back then no one really knew anything. But other than that, I think buying Bitcoin now under 100,000 is the moral equivalent of insider trading knowing that what we what we know about where values and trends are I would not say that about any other asset I have it's a much higher conviction and people ask me about this all the time that dynamic changes what you're saying you may not like it that way but it is it is something different and I don't think that there's any danger

of a new technology coming involved to take over Bitcoin. Either there will be a decentralized digital asset that will be a global store of value or there won't. The notion that something new is gonna come along because it's quote, better tech, it's not about tech, it's about critical mass. It's about network effects. It's about a network that is hardened

and hasn't gone down in 15 years. It's about a hash rate and a network strength that continues to go up. It's not the same thing. And so, yeah, I sound like a Bitcoin maxi when I talk about that as a store of value, but you need that backdrop. Now, does that mean the thing

that technical trading won't dominate? Of course it will dominate. On the margin, liquidity rules. It always has, it always will. But that's why God candles can happen. People are calling what happened yesterday as a God candle. I actually was laughing at that. So other people said it was a short squeeze.

I was laughing at that. No. What it was, was the momentum trader saying, oops, I was caught flat footed and it went the other direction. What we need to find out is where is the actual bid right now and can they actually get supply at that level? And if the answer is yes, it's gonna stay around those levels or scale back in.

If the answer is no, then it's gonna start going higher. We don't know the answer to that. And I said that very clearly, I still think that's true. I didn't say 90 was a tradable bottom. I said 80 was a tradable bottom. And that may very well, and it's tradable, right? We're talking about the long run. Yeah, I mean, at the end of the day, Bitcoin slammed right into resistance at 95,000 and dropped. If you looked at the Salada chart, it slammed right into resistance at like 180 and now dropped. So yeah, I mean, it was a huge move, but still within sort of this technical range. Nothing notable happened for price that would give you the idea that you're going straight to all-time highs again. But there's a- so- oh my god, I can't believe it's 10 o'clock.

There were so many things I wanted to discuss. I just do want to highlight one of them that I think is important, which is that BlackRock adds its Bitcoin ETF to model portfolio for first time. I do- I like- I couldn't- it just kind of got lost in the news of all this James you gave this maybe you could just kind of to me this is like massively important just as a step it does not like something that's going to send price. Yeah, really, really quick. I wrote about it in in actually the full newsletter of this weekend. So anybody who's watching it, it's free newsletter this weekend on that on list. But there's difference between, people have been saying, oh, BlackRock's the one who's buying Bitcoin. BlackRock, BlackRock buying Bitcoin for the ETF

is buying Bitcoin for the people who are buying the ETF. They're not buying it for themselves. That's just, that's really big distinction to be made here. This is different. This is BlackRock putting it in their model portfolios for all the RIAs and portfolio managers who use BlackRock's templates to add to their model portfolios. These model portfolios have about $150 billion in them, which means that anybody who's watching these model portfolios, if the model portfolio has alternative assets in it, then they're saying you should have a 1 to 3% allocation in it. And that could be, you know, so 1 to 2% allocation. So that could be as much as $3 billion of buying

pressure for Bitcoin ETFs, and especially the iBit, because iBit's the one they put in their own portfolios, obviously, it's their, it's their ETF. And so it's just a little bit different this time. It actually is BlackRock saying to buy it, but it still isn't really BlackRock buying it. It's the managers who follow those portfolios. But yeah, it's interesting. And this is real. This is actually for people saying, BlackRock's the ones buying your Bitcoin when you sell your ETF. That's not really what's going on. Or BlackRock is out there buying the Bitcoin. This time, it's kind of true. So that's a distinction. And it's a big deal. It's a really big deal. So just one takeaway. We still have a pretty significant strong stock market this year. Total return S&P 500 is up 1%.

But TLT is up 6%. Bitcoin is down 4%. Gold is up 10%. I think those are trends just getting started, partly because yes, I've been wrong for two years on bonds. Lost my hair talking about buying bonds. I think that's going to be one of the best things this year. Good old TLT.

But they're still not even down in that time. They just didn't perform particularly well. Exactly, when you get that stock market. I've been holding TLTs since 84, when it was the bottom and I did that even publicly here. We talked about it, I'm still up. I haven't even thought about it. Yeah, that's the key thing.

At some point, we're just due for that normal, 20% back up in stock market. We don't make a record high for five years. God help us. So, stuff that used to happen. And this market is so due for just its normalization, main reversion. Bitcoin is just one of the best leading indicators there is. And people always justify different reasons for it to go up. I think it's peaked at 100,000. It's more like go to 50. It's not a big deal in the history of Bitcoin. And the last story that I just need to highlight quickly is that there's going to be a crypto roundtable at the White House on Friday.

So for anyone who didn't think that we had enough insanity for crypto news from the White House, you got that. Yeah, I guess we'll have to move it to crypto town hall. Dave, you're dying to say something, so go ahead. No, no, look, I can see it. I'll save it. I'll save it for next week. Let's let this week play out and see all the foolishness.

Yeah, what a week. It's so funny that the market opens and we drop. Here we go. Very, very exciting stuff. I hope everybody's already strapped in. Yeah, seriously, I hope you at least own some Bitcoin already. Come on.

Anyway, it's done. That's all we got for you. We will be back, of course, next Monday. I'll be back tomorrow with Andrew and Tillman and the Arch already come on. Anyway, it's done. So we got for you. We will be back. Of course next Monday I'll be back tomorrow with Andrew and Tillman and the archpublic crew and heading over to X spaces in 10 minutes Thank you gentlemen. Always a pleasure. I think I'm still buying the stage to be honest We just got to get us all in Miami at the same time Maybe we should do a macro Monday dinner and invite our fans. That's be that would be fun Let's I think I'll be fine. Let's plan it out, man. I'm gonna talk about that.

I say these things that I forget about them because I made a deep question. It's a good idea. Let's do that. All right, guys. They won't let you forget about it in the comments, Scott. That'd be awesome, man. Comment if you wanna come.

See you in Miami. Bye, guys. Bye. Let's go.