The Wolf Of All Streets - Trump’s Next Move Could CRASH Bitcoin to $70K!

Episode Date: February 27, 2025

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Trump's next move could crash Bitcoin to $70,000. How's that for hyperbole? We are schizophrenic on this show. Admittedly, we just post titles to get you guys to watch, and then we generally don't even talk about them. The last two days, I think it was at the bottom was in, but today, bear market. It's over, guys. I'm sorry.

But to discuss price action, but more importantly, the fundamental tailwinds behind Bitcoin, which I would argue are the strongest we've ever had. We have Edan Yago and for the first time, special guest, apparently the most important man in Bitcoin, Pete Rizzo, here to share his thoughts. Guys, we've also got chart guys to break down the charts at the end. Gonna be a great show.

Let's do it. What is up everybody? I'm Scott Melker, also known as the Wolf of All Streets. Before we get started, please subscribe to the channel and hit that like button. You may notice I zoomed out a bit today feeling a little bit exposed honestly, but you'll see why because I match Yago and Pete perfectly. I didn't want my head to be too big when your heads were small. It makes for very, very awkward programming.

Here we go guys. We have this very hyperbolic, terrifying title. Trump's next move to crash Bitcoin to 70k. Of course, this is based on Arthur Hayes, who honestly, like, best takes never right, but it's really fun to listen to him. But like, I mean, if you followed Arthur's, you know, panic and hyperbolic predictions in general, it's death. But here's what we got.

Now we chill out, retrace and wait. If Trump can't pass his budget, which spends more in hikes, debt ceiling, resume capitulation to levels, pre the election day victory 75 to 70. This is a test of how strong Trump's hold is on the Republican party. I don't actually think that's the take.

I think the take is maybe this is a reflection right now on how strong Trump's hold is on crypto. Maybe not as much Bitcoin, but the crypto market. When he launched that Trump token, I made the argument like Trump controls this market entirely now. Definitely felt like a top signal. I would say I'm not quite as bearish as Arthur Hayes. Again, thanks for having me on the program first time. I think this is a cool down, a pause, it got overextended. You look at the classic top signals from markets past, Katy Perry dancing with the FTX founders,

her famous crypto nails. The Trump token was one of those overly euphoric events. I think that in a little cool down, never heard anyone 20% down from peak right now. As you mentioned, Scott, a lot of good fundamentals. I think the big one was DC yesterday, right? We saw Cynthia Lummis chairing the first digital assets subcommittee meeting, promising bipartisan legislation. I think this is going to happen in 2025. So I think, you know, my prediction how I'm thinking the markets will play curious for your thoughts.

But I think later in the year, we're going to get legislation, DC is going to come together. It's going to be positive. We're going to get rebuilding. This is a little bit of a breath, comparable to 2021 when we saw El Salvador, embracing Bitcoin, putting it on the balance sheet. And then all of a sudden people started selling down about a 50% drop. I don't think we're going to see that. But I do think that second half, I think we're prepping for a big second half in Bitcoin. And that's why I'm launching my podcast today. So breaking the news here, Supply Shock Pod out on Blockworks, their first Bitcoin podcast.

So taking Bitcoin back to the crypto networks. And yeah, I just think a testament to where Bitcoin is and you know, just the big dog in the market. But yeah, I actually launched my podcast with block works. You know, as the person who reached out to me first, he said, you should do a podcast. And I said, what the fuck's a podcast? That's literally was my response. So I that's how

knowledgeable I was getting a deja vu about this conversation. Very similar. Yeah. And when El Salvador announced their Bitcoin strategy, Yago, I was sitting outside on a bench at that conference with you and you were giving me a lecture on shitcoining. Yeah. Now I shouldn't do it. Well, that's changed. I've been very impressed by Arthur Hayes, actually. Arthur Hayes has been calling for exactly this kind of dip at exactly this time for exactly these reasons

for the last three or four months. Yes. Very impressive. The other person who's been impressive, I think is check matey who was talking about a gap between air pockets. Exactly. He has air pockets in those air pockets now. Yeah. And then the third, unfortunately for me, the third really impressive person is my wife who took a, uh,

who took a limit and started placing limit orders and around 73 K after we passed every three gay and I was like, you're never going to fill those orders. And now I'm going to be wrong with my wife. Maybe not. I think 74. It'll bounce at 74. I think the being on the periphery is the best place to trade. You know, historically, you know, I've been in Bitcoin since 13, 14. It's the casual people who are like, you know, just they have a little bit of an ear to into it, but they're not in the weeds. They just seem to end up the best. Right. It's, you know, it's the constant information exposure that gets you.

People are zooming out, I think, are able to maybe maybe your wife's just, you know, she's got her finger on the pulse. You saw that third day of Portnoy coin and she was just she was like, this is my single. the four years ago. Like Festivus. Right. Yeah, I mean, to be fair like- What does the winner get? Do you have some sort of special prize or? The prize is the best prize ever. You get to be right. Ah, right. The only prize that matters in marriage, the men rarely, honestly, even if you nailed the price to the petty,

I'm sure there's a way you're wrong. Is it the closest without going over or can you go over or how does that work? It's at proximity. It's not like the price is right. Where you could be like 20,000 off, but as long as you're the closest one, because there's a bit of dollar perverse incentives. Yeah, well, I'm gonna say I don't think we're gonna see 70k

that that would shock me. I think 74 was that previous high from March 24. I think that's why everybody started looking at it from the day that Yago's wife did is that you get that retest of that key level. But with the 200 MA here, honestly, I think we just stop here and frustrate a lot of people. But what do I know? Just a guy guessing about lines on things. Again, I think we saw this in 2021.

Let's go back to the history. The drop's 50%. We had a summer doldrums. But we never saw 20K again. That was the previous high. Let's go back to the history. The drop's 50%. We had a summer doldrums. But we never saw 20K again, right? And that was the previous high. I don't think you're gonna see a parity with the previous all-time high here.

That would be pretty shocking. But again, the fundamentals look good, right? So what are the, I guess the question to the bears here would be, what are the fundamentally negative catalysts? I mean, we've got incumbents coming into the space. Bank of America CEO out yesterday talking about getting active in the market. Obviously, legislation is going to cause the incumbents to come to the market. We know that's going to happen. And we know

all these new entrants, you know, they're noobs. They're not going to know what they're going to buy and sell and they're going to panic. And, you know, I think we'll have a big crash at the end of this year again. But a lot of new people are going to come in. We're going to see advertising, retail advertising, like we've never seen before, right? Once the legislation has passed, these companies, exchanges, miners, you're gonna see an exposure to these kinds of companies

that you haven't seen before. So I don't know, I'm looking at the fundamentals here and the fundamentals seem very positive and this seems like a trader's, this is just traders trading things and retail being a bit turned off by the meme coin frenzy. But I don't know, what's the fundamentally negative catalyst here? Is there one on the table? Well, I think I think there's overall a liquidity challenge in the market, right? So the economy is in a weird place where it's slowing down, but unemployment is low. The Fed hate the government's guts and they don't want to introduce additional liquidity because it would be

stagflationary. You're hitting me with the macro lens. I'm hitting you with the macro. We could talk about air pockets, but I think the macro the macro look I that's why I said these home first by author Hayes because you know, I mean he's literally be drawing out both sort of what where he anticipates the market to go but also You know what? What are the indicators the macro indicators he would be looking for and and so far his trades run on schedule But do you think that we're gonna see 70k? Are you waiting to buy Bitcoin at 70k? I just I you know No, but I think I I would I would I would say if we if we were to get you know Go all the way down to 70, you know the low 70s that wouldn't surprise me

It would be a lovely buying opportunity limit orders would get full but but lovely buying opportunity. Limit orders would get full. But yeah, I mean, I don't think that would be surprising. I think actually hitting 70K, I think would be the most extreme end of that. Yeah, I can't see it going lower than that even. I think 70K would be surprising. I mean, again, it just feels like there's too many people

trying to get in the UAE pension funds that are looking at the market, it seems like there's too many hands around the table trying to grab a piece of stuff. I wouldn't be surprised if the 13 F filings for Q2 or Q1, I think we're still at Q1, Q1. Look like the institutions are just buying the step. They're looking for a good entry point. To me, this feels like retail getting shaken out. People who came in for the Trump wave, they're looking for a good entry point. You know, to me, this feels like retail getting shaken out. You know, people

who came in for the Trump wave, they bought high they panic sold, you know, they bought some FTP, you know, because it was their friends. I was gonna say all coins have read like Bitcoin has performed exceptionally well relative all coins have retraced the entire Trump pump and many of them more. Well, I think the all coin narratives have been largely, you know, I've been

bearish on them for four or five years now, but largely pretty decimated. I, you know, again, I'm curious for the people who are bullish on Solana, like, you know, what they, what their thesis is at this point. But, uh, you know, I, I do think that that's going to continue. Part of this, the, the block works, uh, podcast that we're spending up here, I think is a testament to that, right? Block works as a crypto media. They do a conference permission list with the bankless folks who are, you know,

the ETH bowls. And, uh, you know, this podcast, I think is about bringing that Bitcoin conversation to the crypto forum. Cause there's demand for it, right? People are saying like, why are my bags down? Why is Bitcoin doing so well? We were supposed to, oh, it's a better technology. There was, there's better funding, you know, you can look at coins on this. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, it's very interesting because we started to see sort of like alternative assets,

like what would usually have been considered like out coins, but emerging from the Bitcoin space just over the next month, maybe six weeks, we're going to see a corn launching on exchanges for the first time. We're going to see corn launching on exchanges for the first time. We're going to see Bob launching on exchanges, Bitlayer, Babylon, Portal. These are all Bitcoin ecosystem projects that are sort of hitting the exchanges now. And many of them are like- Are these like more like a bit VM type construction? I haven't been following super closely.

I'm actually very curious to read. It's very, very... It's the whole spectrum. Some of them are more like Affinity because they're like Bob and Korn. So Bob is like an OP stack Bitcoin-focused project. Korn is an Arbitrum stack Bitcoin-focused project. Babylon is Bitcoin staking I

think Babylon is probably going to be the most important indicator to watch bit layer is like a roll-up or intended to be a roll-up utilizing bit VM and CK type technology and Bitcoin and portal is an atomic swap cross-chain sort of BTC trading system. But basically what we're overall seeing is, you know, this Bitcoin ecosystem has been building and building and building, but it's been latent pressure. None of them have had live tokens. And March is going to be the big change, right? so many of them, not all of them, but like- But this is altcoins on Bitcoin.

So this is going to give us a very good perspective as to whether there's an appetite in the market for that. Well, there's been altcoins on Bitcoin for forever. And I think the term is just arbitrary assets, right? Going back to 2014 and 2015, there have been forever. It's just a question of whether there's demand and whether the user experience is good. So I'm actually gonna dive into this a little bit

on my pod upcoming, teasing next week's guests. Dan Held's coming on, who's doing, I think he's like you, Eden, is bullish on, and has been telling me for six months, there's gonna be the big Bitcoin season two comeback, the revenge of the of the ordinals traders who are now down 99%. David Saroy is working on some ZK roll up tech and bring it to Bitcoin. And then Jeremy Rubin, who's of course, more active on kind of the, you know, core Bitcoin layer, trying to get things approved. But yeah, curious to get their

take. You know, we saw the promise with runes though, right, where there was a couple days and then the meme coin frenzy went over to Solana. So I think fundamentally my question to those folks is going to be, does the market really care? Is Dave Portnoy's meme coin on Bitcoin versus on Solana? It's like if you're competing at pure user experience. I think you're competing at functionality. Well, first of all, you know, it's like if you're competing at pure user experience, you know, the user experience. I think you're competing at functionality. Well, first of all, you're sitting with the guy who did the first ZK on Bitcoin at Nashville live on stage.

So that's a thing. Go ahead, Chacko. Look, I think people might be overly focused right now on meme coins in that I think that What else is there, Eden? I think meme coin primacy might be over. And so the question is what happens next? And I think, you know, right now there's a lot of soul searching.

It's actually very, very exciting to see. Soul searching? Come-I-O. Soul searching, come on, man. I thought the same thing. We've got this dislocation between BTC and all of these other assets. Some of them are doing OK, mostly not. And people are starting to ask themselves,

what are we actually building in this industry? And I think a lot of people who have been building in this space, especially outside of the Bitcoin space that I've been talking to, are really sort of wondering what the hell they've been doing with their lives. I think that's a really, really great moment because what that means is that we are in a certain trough of disillusionment. And from those troughs of disillusionment, you generally end up getting rid of a lot of the risk. Is that just in the ETH space though,

or is it also in the Solana space? So I'm actually curious. I think it's in the Solana space even more heavily now. I think Ethereum for a while, it was just kind of fundamentally, why won't it catch up the existential woke crisis and Malady or whatever Vitalik was doing. But right now since Libra, first of all,

I mean the Trump launch is the exact top of Solana, if you look. So it's been basically an escalator straight down since that. I think Libra took a lot of wind out of the sales. I mean, PumpFund, nothing's bonding anymore on there. They're selling their Solana live on the open market. You can see them moving it. And I think that people just aren't excited. Listen, when everybody wakes up and goes,

wait, I'm playing in a casino, but the house actually has a nine to one edge instead of A and O, 50.9% edge, they eventually give up and say, I'm gonna go broke, or I am. I just, I think that people are very bearish on Solana right now, because they don't think meme coins come back

and they're not seeing other fundamental use cases. I don't think that's necessarily fair, but. I think the asymmetry in these coins, right? People are waking up to the fact that, you know, if you're a lot, is there a fundamental problem of launching a new coin, right? And then you have these coins with the massive supplies for insiders. And that obviously is a teachable moment for Bitcoin because, you know, Bitcoin, there are no insiders.

Everyone who has bought or sold Bitcoin has done so fairly, you know, whether it's the guy who mailed people single dollar bills in 2009, and they sent him Bitcoin back to the people today who are mining with data centers. People are trading in a market for Bitcoin, and they're doing so in a way that's fair and equitable. And I just think the launch problem in the space is just more apparent with these sort of meme coins. We'll see maybe with Kanye, if he drops swastika coin, I'm sure he's going to own 90% of the swastika coin supply. And so I think it's a bit a massive teachable moment for retail, you know, just realizing that this the market is predatory. You're either an insider or

you're not, if you're not in Bitcoin. And I don't know, I guess the question that I have to eat in is with these Bitcoin 2.0 projects is like, how do you actually solve that? I thought Ordinal's actually had a creative way to solve that, but I don't know, these other projects, do they have to lock? Bottom line is I don't think they need to solve it. I think that they're basically-

They can just pay 80% of the cost. No, no, I mean this in a good way. I'm not being cynical for a moment. You know, you've got BTC. BTC is a commodity asset. Unowned by any sort of entity. And not trying to accomplish anything that is sort of existing as an asset already. Everything else is a service or an application or a technology.

It's basically equity, right? It's a way of routing around the SEC. And so the SEC were right to try and want to go after one of these things as securities, right from a technical perspective, not from a moral, ethical, legal or... They are intentionally intending to be securities I mean, that's what I always say about the theorem foundations the reason they have 80% of supplies that they thought they were going to do

Other equity like a series a bc right? Yeah, it just never happened, right? but Fundamentally, I think my point is that yes All of these projects have insiders and actually that's what you want If the project is not a mean coin you want insiders You want highly motivated people who are trying to build something. And hopefully, you pick not just the right project, but also the right insiders. You pick founders who are trying to build something, are actually mission driven, have a good understanding of the market, are fundamentally barking up the right tree.

And great things have been built in crypto, right? Stablecoins are an amazing innovation. Dexs are an amazing innovation. The progress we've made in zero knowledge cryptography has been amazing. This has all been driven by crypto. And so I think my dreams, or my friends, is that we do build out this sort of alternate system

for allocating capital towards innovation, which is more global, more borderless, in many ways less corrupt because it has to be more transparent. We're not quite there yet, but I think we're on the path to building that. Yeah, I've said this before. I think that what we're seeing in Solana is interesting

as bad as the meme coin craze was, it is interesting to see that the crypto space can somewhat self-regulate. People just eventually get so sick of it that the interest diverts to other places and it dies off. I mean, I guess we'll see what happens moving forward, but what Yago, you're describing is more challenging

from a regulatory perspective, right? We've had Hester Perce, obviously at the SEC for years proposing safe harbor. You start centralized, you have a three year period to effectively become sufficiently decentralized by whatever metric the SEC determines is appropriate. And then you don't have to be a security after you've passed through these tests

and this period of safe harbor. Maybe that's what is going to come from a regulatory perspective so that some of these can start more centralized, build something like a product funded by VCs, but actually become decentralized and fair with time. Yeah, I think we need to become less predatory, right? I mean, this is the problem, I think, with why is the whole industry uniting against Ripple and XRP and what they've done and what Why is the whole industry uniting against Ripple and XRP and what they've done and what they will continue to do? It's that ultimately, a system where, I thought the most damning critique of the Ripple company

that was put forward was by Pierre Richard, who was saying like, why isn't Ripple buying XRP? If it's so valuable and you want to put it on America's balance sheet, why aren't you buying it? Where's the Michael Saylor who's buying billions of dollars? Where's the next piece? I don't know. I'm curious what you're thinking here.

I think the insider nature of these markets is a problem. I think that's what people are waking up to with meme coins, that it's fundamentally predatory. Dave Portnoy, if you're part of his audience, you are his exit liquidity. This is, I think, what led to meme coins, because it was the backlash against the VC funded apparatus where the retail was the exit liquidity. This is I think what led to meme coins, right, because it was the backlash against kind of the VC funded apparatus where the retail was the exit liquidity. But you know, how do you get out of that problem? It just it just seems like if you move that

market to Bitcoin, and you are now just kind of trading Bitcoin back tokens, but these coins fundamentally still the same problem, where the insiders get rich and then retail gets fleeced. You don't see that as a problem? Actually, I think we might start to see more transparency because the SEC have left the building. The reason is that you basically couldn't provide transparency about what the project was trying to do. Could it potentially generate revenue in BTC or dollar term? If you're told them they'd sue you. Just come in register. Yeah, right.

And so I think that's created an extremely toxic environment for basically the SEC have screwed over retail. They created, you know, if you look at the ICO era, sure, there was a huge amount of growth, but there was, if you had just... Just to be clear, I'm on the bring Gensler back train, we want to get him back. But yeah. Look what came out of the ICO period, right? You've got Chainlink and Binance and Ethereum and a large assortment of projects that have multiplied their value many,

many thousands of times over and have made people very, very wealthy. And there was an opportunity for people to participate in that. In aggregate, if you had just spread your money across all of the ICOs, you would have done better than if you had invested in any other asset except for BTC, right? Any other asset. Despite the fact that- Is that hard to say all of that? Is that just a-

Actually, I've been working on an analysis on that exact. I'll share with you what- If you invested at them at, yeah, if you had got in at ICO, even as bad as these 99% drawdowns, RP like those things were launching at 1000, 2000, 3000 X. And held till today, right? Not not sure, you know, you saw them. But you got Ant shares, if you bought Ant, somebody showed me actually

that if you bought XRP, which to be fair, like you really couldn't do in 2014 and it was launched unless you were doing like IOUs on Mount Gox or something, but that you would have outperformed Bitcoin from ICO price of XRP. It's all about timeframe. Well, XRP was a giveaway, right? Yeah, it didn't really have an ICO. Yeah. Yeah, it was pre-ICO.

It was pre-ICO. I remember, it would just go to a hackathon up there. So they would throw extra p at you. Yeah, but the point the core point here is just that there's a fundamental distribution problem with tokens, right? The ICO kind of mechanism tried to solve that by having some sort of public sale. But then what we've seen is that if you control the supply that's issued at sale, you're just going to end with these big consolidations. I don't know how you get to... As long as we can argue that none of these coins can replicate what Bitcoin has been able to do, which is a fair law and fair distribution, something where you should treat it as money, that I think litigating that problem is interesting.

But I think your claim was specifically that we don't need to solve that problem, but that's just how it's... No, it's not that we don't need to solve that problem, but that's just that's how no I it's not it's not that we don't need to solve the problem like I'm very interested in the question of Resource allocation right I think ultimately what what? It finance has been the the job of the financial industry is to allocate resources that's its job right and Our current financial industry does a very, very poor job of that.

And so if you are able to even slightly improve on that problem, or even introduce ways of allocating resources, which otherwise would be unavailable, you create opportunities for innovation and productivity growth that would not be available. You create opportunities for people to improve their lives, which would not be available. You create opportunities for people to improve their lives, which would not be available.

You create opportunity for entrepreneurs from places which are not insiders or groups that are not insiders to create productivity. It's a really important problem. It's one of the most important things we could be doing. Right, and crypto is like the place to do that, but unfortunately for a number of reasons, because of the SEC,

because of stream information asymmetries, and because people think they can get rich really, really quickly. We've mostly missed out on that opportunity. And I think there with a Bitcoin culture, now building, you know, we're starting to see projects that are building more fundamental stuff on Bitcoin. But doing it with a more Bitcoin culture, I think that we've opened the door to that opportunity again. Yeah, it's the idea that everything else was a test net to come back to Bitcoin where the money lies and the security lies. And obviously, we'll have the highest TV. I mean, we talked about the SEC. I know we're about to run out of time, but I'm going to keep going for a couple minutes.

SEC closed the investigation into crypto exchange Gemini. They closed their investigation on Robinhood this week. They closed their investigation on Uniswap this week. They closed their investigation on Coinbase last week. If this stuff is going to work, now's our time to shine, right? Because we have clearly the green light to build and launch whatever we want in crypto in the United States right now, as long as it's not outright fraud, which is what the SEC is clearly focusing on.

So this is a real moment in time, Yago, for all those things to launch, because Americans should be able to participate. Yeah. I think it was yesterday or today that they announced they were dropping their case against Uniswap. Yeah, that was yesterday. Well, I would just say I think the problem with the ICO era wasn't that people weren't able to participate, because people did participate broadly, right?

Like most, I think there were Americans who invested in the Ethereum ICO. There were Americans who were invested in a lot of ICOs, different than the ICOs of that era. So I don't know, look, I'm optimistic. I like the fact that the crypto stuff is coming back to Bitcoin. I just think we have to kind of maybe admit

that the problems that might exist in that market. And, you know, just because the SEC stepping back, that doesn't mean that we shouldn't want to get more experience, right? Like, you know, you want to have users ultimately have trust in this kind of system, right? Just overall. And I think, you know, it's good to call out bad actors bad things But then they you need to come and impression but Peter look yes You're 100% right, and there is no sort of panacea here But we we've got a bit of we as mid-corner's need to get a little bit more sophisticated Right if you're going to be calling everything a scape and saying everything is useless then you're not creating Opportunity for a more sophisticated conversation. You're not actually educating anyone. The way I sometimes sort of analogize this is the Europeans were able to take

over North and South America, not because they had better armies or better technology or whatever, it's because they had better diseases. I just had better germs. And they encountered a population which... I'm saying to see where this argument was going. They encountered a population that had absolutely no inoculation, no immune system for sort of like all of the diseases that were coming. Now I think what happened with crypto is that crypto has encountered the global population, everyone who have been living under this regulated fiat standard, who have no inoculation, no immune system for a free market.

And so what has happened is that Grift has won. The virus, the disease of Grift has won. I think we as bid carders, our responsibility is to sort of act as the antibodies. And right now we're doing a really shit job of it because we're so unsophisticated. We're just basically an autoimmune disease. Is this an mRNA vaccine or a classic vaccine? Have you proposed this theory to RFK? I have not.

Go tell RFK that Bitcoin is the vaccine. Yeah, look, I think it'll be interesting to see what plays out. I'm excited for a second half in which the Bitcoin builders are resurgent. I'm excited for new ideas, bad ideas. You know, I was excited for runes that didn't pan out. I was I was excited for ordinals. You know, that was more successful. Look, I think that ultimately the crypto builders are going to have to come to Bitcoin.

I think they're they're going to have to whatever good ideas that they have. They're going to have to figure out how to migrate over. I think that's the natural long tail of what we're seeing is that everybody will settle on that sort of Bitcoin standard. But I do think it's a good lens to be skeptical, right? As long as we want to be hopeful and optimistic, it's good to start from a baseline of skepticism, right? As a journalist, I think the Bitcoin maximalist lens of like just starting from suspicion, starting from, okay, what's wrong with this? And then working to what's good, I think the the in it's time to get rid of the old party lines, Bitcoin and crypto. Let's get rid of the ands. We got to welcome everybody back if this is the Noah's Ark. It's time to get everybody on that

we can. You want to bring me on as a Bitcoin shit corner? We'll get you on. We'll get it on. We forgot to tell Pete that this show theoretically the first day we named it Bitcoin and bullshit because of the barbell of there's Bitcoin and everything else that was popular theoretically the first day we named it Bitcoin and bullshit because of the barbell of there's Bitcoin and everything else that was popular in the market, specifically memes at the time was bullshit. So, you know, it's in line with that. It's in line. We'll be getting back at us somewhere in the middle

on that scale, but I appreciate it being here. And yeah, no more Bitcoin at 70,000. We're not gonna see it. Well, you can put me on a prediction with Arthur Hayes. I don't think so either. So this is launching on X at 10 AM on your X account. Is that correct? I've got a great conversation coming up with Jamison Lopp.

He's going to disprove that Jack Dorsey is Satoshi. There's this big story going around that Jack is Satoshi. Maybe you've seen the viral X threads. It's going to be debunked at 10 AM atm. at Pete underscore Rizzo underscore on X. You guys want to follow along. You know, if you still think Jack is Satoshi and this is, you know, going to shatter your dreams, I guess stay tuned.

But, you know, there'll be some sleuthing to share. Awesome stuff. Well, thank you very much guys. I can't wait to watch the watch the show and keep up with it. Yago as always Bitcoin and bullshit. See you guys later. Thanks. Thank you very much, guys. I can't wait to watch the watch the show and keep up with it. Yago, as always, Bitcoin and bullshit. See you guys later. Thanks. Thank you. All right, guys, we're about to move on to Dan from the chart, guys, of course. But first, gotta tell you about L Bank, obviously a sponsor that we have here on Thursdays. For those of you who don't know, they are a no KYC exchange meaning where there's a will there's a way $20 USDT

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move your coins into self custody. I love exchanges, they're great vehicles for making money and trading, but not to be the best, any of them, to be trusted as custodians. So I would say move your tokens off when you're done with those amazing trades. Gonna bring on Dan now. What's up, man? Sorry, we kept you an extra couple minutes. No worries.

In the wings. We got some pretty like, this is pretty crazy. So like I was gonna bring this up with these guys, but I thought I'd bring it up with you. Obviously, we have, just to put charts in context, BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF sees record daily outflows, the basis trade starts on wine. So we saw basically a billion in a day on Tuesday. We saw a lot of coins obviously moving to exchanges today for them to sell yesterday's sell off and last week another billion. So these are record breaking days

that we're seeing right now for outflows from the ETFs. And I didn't even realize quite how bad this Bitcoin sell off is because I'm immune to everything. But this is actually the worst three day price slide since the FTX debacle, which is pretty meaningful considering we didn't have an FTX type catalyst this time. We do have the president out on a road show of tariffs this morning, which is interesting. I don't know if you saw this, but I just opened this guy's feed.

It's literally just all tariff news. We've got a lot going on, right? I mean, we've got Trump tariffing everybody. We have Bitcoin on this kind of historic slide here, which I didn't realize it was as bad as it was. I mean, what do you make of it when you take a look at the chart? Yeah, I mean, like everybody's saying,

and it's interesting watching everybody say the same thing because it's technically sound. But yeah, I mean, once you break that support level that we broke, we don't have much until those low 70s that we're looking at. That said, I just yesterday made my first Bitcoin trade that I made in six plus weeks because I wasn't trading that sideways range. But yesterday, I love playing oversold bounces. It's one of my edges. And so yesterday was my first trade in a very long time. And I just want to give a little insight into the mindset of a trader. Do I think this is

the bottom? I have no idea, but I've positioned myself to benefit if it is and not be hurt if it isn't. And the reason I looked to go long yesterday, which I did, I had a really good entry, right when 82.5 broke on Bitcoin, I bought IBIT, which of course is the ETF. And the reason was because we were just at extremes across all timeframes. It's what I call a super stack. You can be beat up on the daily,

you can be beat up on the four hour, but a super stack is when you're, the RSI is extremely beat up on the daily, the 12 hour, the four hour, the hourly, the 30 minute, the 15 minute, the five minute, everything. And so that tells me, okay, even if I'm not nailing a macro bottom, I'm likely going to be able to position at least a five minute bounce and sell a little bit into a five minute bounce. And so that's exactly what I did. And so now, you know, I get a good entry, I sell two thirds on the way up. And now my break even is down around 80,000. So I just stick a stop at break even.

And I either nailed it or I stop out break even. And that's the mindset that people don't really understand. You know, everybody wants to predict with trading and technical analysis. I, I predicted that we would see a short term bounce, but that's as far as my prediction goes. And now it's just let it play out. You position and then let it play out. And so I'm looking for, you know, can the bulls confirm a four hour uptrend?

That's what I care about next from here. We've been in a clear four hour downtrend. This was a beautiful back test. We had that $89,000 support. We break it, we try and get back over it and reject. And then we see that another leg down. So can we confirm the four-hour uptrend if we do we then zoom out to the daily and we'll scout a daily lower high with a whole lot of space for it to form so

it's one time frame at a time the Bears are confident and they do have control it's just a question of how big of an oversold bounce can we get going here yeah I mean I took a look at the chart as well. I bought a little Bitcoin, but the 200 MA here on the daily, which hasn't been, yeah, even sniffed since October. So, you know, there's at least going to be a lot of algos on that. But as you said, I mean, this is the first time that Bitcoin has been oversold on the daily since last August. That was the dead bottom, you know, in the low 50s. So there's some confluence there. And then my favorite, you know, four hour has bullish divergence, everything six hour, you know, in the low 50s. So there's some confluence there. And then my favorite, you know, four hour has bullish divergence, everything six hour, four hour, one hour, but those

are good for bounces, this will be hidden bearish divergence right here, maybe another but this, these are the signals I like for building a bottom, I should say like I don't, but as you said, like if it's 80 to five, it goes to 80, whatever, you know, and that sort of air gap we're talking about, there is no support in here because of how fast we broke that all-time high from 74 and zoomed right into the high 80s. So it makes a lot of sense, but if everybody's looking for 74, I think you get 80 and go up or 65. Yeah, that's

exactly right and it is, you know, it's common to see everybody talking about the same direction when you're in for it You for you or whatever, but this is one of the first times where it's like a very technical sound Majority of opinion where it's just I guess there's enough influencers who can see these levels that are clearly visible from space That they're all saying the same thing and so now all the markets looking towards those levels and as we know the more Everybody's looking at the same thing the less likely it is to actually happen. So that's one of the reasons why I made an attempt at this bounce play, but we'll see how it plays out. There's a lot of work to do for the bulls to regain it. Again, we got to confirm a four hour uptrend,

then we got to confirm a daily uptrend. And then, you know, we're in a daily and a weekly downtrend. So it's going to take a bit for the bulls to regain things, but you know, bigger picture, the monthly chart, there's no major red flags at this point. And so, you know, I always position myself, could this be a macro top? I don't think so, but I did sell 20% of my long-term position at 105, because if a Trump meme coin marks a long-term top

and I didn't act, I wouldn't be able to live with myself. So I did sell a little bit just in case and now it's just let it play out from here. Yeah, so what are you watching otherwise outside of Bitcoin which man, that's an ugly candle. We talked about Litecoin a couple of weeks ago and granted it's only up 2% from two weeks ago, but compared to everything else, it's holding its own.

It's still got, what I was saying two weeks ago on the show was when LTC BTC Sees this weekly EMA 12 and 24 cross or 12 and 26 every single time We get at least some follow through and so LTC BTC I mean, this is the strongest litecoins been compared to Bitcoin in over 10 months So again just as a shorter term trade perspective, but it's just very interesting to see Litecoin is like one of the standing strong survivors in the bloodshed over the last two weeks. Yeah, that's pretty astounding that anything could be up in this environment. Yeah.

So I'm just going to keep on Litecoin. If we hold weekly EMA 12, it's going to remain a lead bull and let's see how long LTC BTC can see strength other than that, you know So of course watching that bloodshed on its dump. It actually got to some of its most beat-up daily RSI ever which Was surprising to me because I would have thought it would be more extreme But you know we get down into the low 20s in its history and that's generally where it bounces. But again, so much negative sentiment, just a clear long-term downtrend here. Again, I know traders that are making some attempts here,

low risk, obviously stopping out if you're wrong, but when sentiments this crush and prices get this crushed, some contrarian traders like to at least make an attempt, but only for the experienced, because again, there's much stronger things out there than sold. Yeah. It's been down only basically since Trump token. Yeah. I mean, that's the fundamental reason. It's the same thing as the cannabis sector in Canada. Literally the top was the day or two before recreational legal sales started. Sometimes you get these little fundamental markers that in hindsight can be a, oh yeah,

but Seoul definitely getting taken to the woodshed. MSTR was a good one. We had two months of inside bar. That broke there. Now we're going to scout a monthly high or low in MSTR. And of course, anytime Bitcoin's down, everybody starts talking about when what level does Michael Saylor actually get liquidated but again the structure of this long-term chart still just fine very similar to Bitcoin but Monthly higher low will be the most likely scenario just like Bitcoin is and the last thing I'm watching is Tesla crazy by the way

It's just crazy to look at that chart because it just looks like it's like kind of forming a big bull flag and that's a 50% drop just because of how. Yeah. It doesn't look like a 50% drop when you eyeball it, you know, logarithmically, but it's crazy. Yeah. You get that climax top and, you know, I made a prediction that I think the premium that MSTR has on its Bitcoin has peaked for this cycle. And I don't see that shifting. So we'll see if that ends up shaping up. But again, it just got so euphoria, that blow off top, you got to keep an eye out for it. And you know, Google chart guys blow off top, we got a video all

about it. But it happens oftentimes in markets. And it's a good thing to be aware of in terms of how those shape up. And the last thing I'm watching is Tesla. Tesla's getting really beat up daily oversold, very patiently scouting a bounce, but still struggling there. I'm going to be, ideally, in stocks, when you get, this is one thing that stocks have that crypto doesn't, is when you get extreme, whether it's to the upside or downside, MSTR to the upside, a gap, a gap up or a gap down will very often mark the low or the high on an extreme move. And Tesla hasn't gapped down on this entire drop. And so that's one thing that I'm patiently watching for to potentially happen if I am going to be looking at a daily bounce on Tesla, because it's the same

thing, you know, weakness in the short term, absolutely, but a monthly higher low is the most likely scenario. We're coming off all time highs. We made a, you know, extreme 100% plus move to the upside. And so now just scouting that monthly higher low in Tesla, Bitcoin, MSTR, a lot of things. Yeah. I saw a tweet today. It was like, a lot of Musk's net worth is up 50% since Trump was elected. When I looked at the Tesla chart, I was like, how? Yeah, I know the headline you're talking about, and that was from like two, three weeks ago. It definitely has changed. I was like, is he shorting Tesla in size?

Because that doesn't seem to make sense. Just to give people some very quick perspective, by the way, I brought this up earlier, but we're at a 25% retrace on Bitcoin peak to trough right now. If you go back, I posted this last earlier, but we're at a 25% retrace on Bitcoin peak to trough right now. If you go back, I posted this last March, but in 2017, we had 41%, 29%, 34%, 41%, 40%, 27%. So this 25% retrace would not have even registered as top seven in the 2017 bull market. And when you go to 2021, we had 21, 17, 31, 26, 55. So it would be right in the middle there. But there's just nothing new under the sun here with this

if you're totally dedicated. Yeah, yeah. And I expect those numbers to continue to shrink as market cap and liquidity grows. But yeah, I mean, 25%, definitely no big deal for those who've been around multiple cycles. Awesome guys. We'll give chart guys a follow. Check out his courses and videos that he has. For some reason, I'm losing my voice all of a sudden. That's all we have got for you today.

We'll see you next week. Thanks, man. Really appreciate it. Have a good one, Scott. Thanks for watching!