The Wolf Of All Streets - Up Only: What's Next For Crypto & Bitcoin After Trump's Big Win

Episode Date: November 7, 2024

Haseeb Qureshi, Managing Partner at Dragonfly, a crypto venture fund, joins me today to discuss the prospects of Bitcoin and crypto following Donald Trump's big win in the U.S. elections. Haseeb Qureshi: https://x.com/hosseeb In the second part of the show, Dan from The Chart Guys will share his market analysis and some trades.  The Chart Guys: https://www.youtube.com/@ChartGuys  ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEKDAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/   ►► The Arch Public Unleash algorithmic trading. Discover how algorithms used by hedge-funds are now accessible to traders looking for unparalleled insights and opportunities!  👉https://thearchpublic.com/  ►►TRADING ALPHA READY TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS? THE BEST TRADERS IN CRYPTO ARE RELYING ON THESE INDICATORS TO MAKE TRADES. Use code '10OFF' for a 10% discount. 👉https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker  Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://x.com/scottmelker Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.com/ Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe   Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c   #Bitcoin #Crypto #Bullmarket The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

I think it's fair to say that markets have reacted positively to the presidential election, to Trump's victory. Yesterday was the best day in the history of the S&P after an election. Bitcoin obviously flew during the election and after, and there's bullish sentiment across the board. Is it now up only? What's next for crypto and Bitcoin after Trump's big win and arguably a big win for the crypto industry. I have one of my absolute favorites here to unpack it all. Haseeb Qureshi from Dragonfly. Of course, chart guys on the back half. Let's go. thing. But it's like months of election news intoxication is finally settling in here. Yeah. I'm still pretty sleep deprived. Although this is my first election that I experienced

outside the US. I'm in Singapore at the moment, which I will say, surprisingly much more pleasant way to experience an election because it's happening in the daytime. So while everybody's doing all-nighters and I'm like, oh, it over by 5 p.m it was actually pretty pleasant yeah like mid-afternoon uh pre-lunch snack and presidential decision so i don't think we need to dig into what your expectations were or what you thought would happen but you are very bullish on polymarket you wrote an amazing thread here what polymarket got right what the experts got. I think it's fair to say that all those pollsters making their predictions across the board and their polls and exit polls and all that. And I guess you could have just watched what the sharps were betting on. That's right. I mean, it was a pretty

resounding vindication for Polymarket. It's funny because I had posted another long tweet thread earlier in the week, basically chastising the media for constantly fighting Polymarket. If you look at what the Wall Street Journal was saying, what New York Times was saying, what Bloomberg was saying, they were mostly just talking shit about Polymarket. They were like, oh, it's being manipulated. There's fake volumes. There's all these Trump-loving crypto bros. You can't trust these prices because they're all foreigners. I said some of that, by the way. Well, okay. There you go. You're part of the problem. Everybody was finding some way to minimize the legitimacy of Polymarket. Actually, one of my favorite bloggers just today put out

a blog post saying that like, well, yeah, okay, polymarket odds are slightly better, but I still think polymarket was wrong and it was biased in favor of Trump. Now, we just learned the story of the French whale, right? So there was all this speculation about the French whale. Did you follow the story that just came out today? It's insane what France is trying to do. I'm going to bring it up for, but while you keep going. So there was all this excitement about the French whale. No, no, this is not what I'm talking about. I'm talking about the French whale. So this guy, Theo, who was- Yeah, but that's a result of this. So he made 30 something or $70 million,

whatever the number was, you'd know better than me. And now the French government wants to block Polymarket as a result. I don't know if you saw that update today. No, I did not see this. I did not see this. Yes, so this is brand new. Wow. Embarrassing for France. Okay. This is three hours ago. Yeah. Okay. All right. Amazing. Well, so the moral of the story is that many people thought, the reason why polymarket odds are higher than the polls and the election modelers is because polymarket is biased, right? It's a bunch of crypto bros and they love Trump. Now, what happened was that Theo, who is this polymarket whale, he bought, he was like secretly buying up Trump shares because he felt that, uh, the pollsters were missing

this big Trump effect, right? This is often called the shy Trump voter effect, which is that you ask somebody, are you going to vote for Trump? They say, no, they go to hem and haw. And it's like, everyone kind of knows what we're talking about, right? Like I know people who they were definitely voting for Trump and they would never say it in public. And I remember that being true in 2016 kind of in 2024. It's everywhere

Yeah, so many people I know are they know that they're gonna vote for Trump. They are in favor of Trump They were frustrated with the Democratic Party and they would absolutely not say anything in public and so with Theo, you know He this French whale his he had conviction that this was true and he was going to vindicate it for himself by commissioning his own poll that he got pollsters to go out and instead of asking people,

are you going to vote for Trump? Instead, he asked them, do you think your neighbors are gonna vote for Trump? And what it turns out is that this question phrasing of asking where people think their neighbors will vote for Trump as opposed what it turns out is that this question phrasing of asking what people think their neighbors will vote for Trump as opposed to themselves, you get a more accurate response when you have this kind of preference falsification because people are afraid of getting judged. And so he ran a poll, hired literally a pollster, paid like $80,000

or something, hired a pollster to run a poll using this method instead and found that there was a huge divergence, that many more people were willing to vote for Trump than were actually saying it in response to the pollsters. And this is what gave him conviction to massively push up the prices on Polymarket. So up until then, the prices on Polymarket were pretty similar to what they were on other markets, which tells you the moral of the story is that markets find the truth, but they do not tell you why they're priced that way. And this is a perfect example of when you go look at what hedge funds do

in traditional markets and equities, right? They're buying up credit card data. They're using satellite imagery to see how many people are parked in the parking lots to try to figure out what are the corporate earnings going to be for Walmart before the earnings are ever announced. They use all sorts of proprietary signals to get the right answer because of how much money is riding on getting it right. That is exactly what happened with Polymarket. And the assumption from almost everybody was that, no, no, no, no, that's not what's happening. It's a bunch of degens who are just betting tons of money because it's wish fulfillment. And when the amount of money is that big, when the amount of money is

that big- I didn't say it was wrong. I just said the standard deviation was probably bigger because you didn't have US voters and there might've been people who are crypto-native might've been leaning. I was wrong. That's the thing. I think it's very likely that actually not being available to US voters probably made the market more accurate. Because the neighbors, they're looking at us through the third-party lens and saying exactly what you just said. And they're just passionate, right? They don't have a dog in the fight. They're just like, look,

what do I think Americans will actually do? As opposed to what they are telling themselves that they're going to do. Yeah. So this is really funny, but I brought up a tweet I sent in 2016 when Trump was elected to the point of what you said. And this was my most viral tweet at the

time, I didn't have nearly as many followers and such. This was in 2016. As my dad said, people kept their mouth shut, went into the booth, checked over their shoulders and voted Trump. The exact same effect that you're discussing. I think, you know, in 16, people wouldn't tell you anything. In 2020, they were proud. And in 2024, I think it went back to sort of the 2016 effect to your point. Totally. Totally. I mean, in a way though, people are a lot less surprised about it, right? So I think in the aftermath of 2016, I remember I was living in SF at that time. It's super, super liberal city. And there was a shock. People just could not comprehend what had happened with Trump winning the election. This time, it's not shock.

Nobody is shocked by this. A lot of people are processing it. A lot of Democrats who I know are despondent, but they understand. It landed that, yes, you fucked up. And you were given a very strong mandate that, hey, we're taking the country in a different direction. Yeah. The despondency this time is about their own party, I think, which is different than 2016. Even my most passionate boomer parents, friends who are hardcore Democrats are doing the look in the mirror, our party blew it thing. And I do think that's very, very different this time. Now, what Polly Market, I guess, got wrong, as I read, was the popular vote. But I do think that's very, very different this time. Now, what Polymarket, I guess, got wrong, as I read, was the popular vote. But I don't think there was any expectation that Trump was going to take the popular vote on any poll anywhere or any predictive site. Correct?

Right. So in defense of Polymarket, as you mentioned, I'm an investor in Polymarket, but I also have a strong bias in favor of markets to begin with. But if you look at Polymarket, Polymarket was handicapping roughly the same odds as Nate Silver, who's one of the leading election modelers. So Polymarket didn't agree or didn't disagree with the more or less consensus among statistical modelers about the popular vote. However, the difference with the popular vote is that the popular vote market was much smaller than the election market. So many people were saying, well, the market is not that liquid, it's not that big. The popular vote market was about one-eighth the size of the presidential election market. So there's just a much bigger bounty on getting the election right. Because of course, the popular vote also just doesn't matter.

It's irrelevant. It's kind of like a symbolic thing. Yeah, it's just kind of like- It's like betting on the coin flip of the Super Bowl. Yeah, exactly. It's like how many points are they gonna be ahead by? It's like, okay, great, I guess. But like the real question that matters is who wins.

And that vote, the other thing is that if you think about a financial player, if you think about a hedge fund that's playing the game, you can actually find a way to hedge who is going to win the election. Why can you hedge that? You can hedge that because who is going to win the election is baked into the prices of equities. So if you think that it's, let's say, 50% likely or 60% likely that Trump is going to win, well, Trump is gonna put tariffs on a bunch of exporters. And so those exporters are going to be hurt, right? And so how do their prices of their equity companies change

is implying what the market thinks the probability is that Trump is gonna win. And so that gives you, what that tells you is that there's a way to construct a hedge for the likelihood that Trump gets elected that there's a way to construct a hedge for the the likelihood that trump gets elected there's no way to construct a hedge around the likelihood that he wins a popular vote because yeah i mean bitcoin tesla doge djt any exactly you know trump adjacent coin based stock miners i mean micro strategy anything that was a sort of even superficially a Trump trade,

you saw move disproportionately to the rest of the market. That's right. And there were times when actually the price of Bitcoin seemingly was tracking the polymarket odds of Trump's victory. Not seemingly, it was very, it was, it was very apparent. Yeah. And another really interesting point you actually made in your, in your thread, I can find it down below, but it was basically not only the fact that Polymarket got it right, but Polymarket, because you could actually see it in real time flying, was at like 97% or something by 10 or 11 PM. I don't remember the exact timing. I don't want to be wrong. But basically, Polymarket also called the election way ahead of when even the people counting the votes could.

That's right. So the reason why... So again, it comes down to the fundamentals of markets, is that markets do not care about process. They don't care about pageantry. They don't care about the sacred ritual of counting every vote. All they care about is what is the right answer. And markets will go straight to the right answer as fast as possible because the first person who gets the market in line makes money. So what you saw was that the election by midnight Eastern, not a single swing state was called. Every single swing state. If you go look at New York Times or CNN, they were showing like, oh my God, the race is still close. Who knows what's going to happen? Polymarket was showing 97% by midnight

that Trump was going to win, that it's over. Go home, go to sleep, don't wait for the swing states to get a call because it doesn't matter. The reason why Polymarket knew that was gonna happen was by looking at the non-competitive states. So looking at New York, which is extremely blue, or looking at Florida, which is extremely red,

it was very clear that there were huge polling misses, right? New York was going way more for Trump. Exactly. She was underperforming everywhere. And polling error is correlated. Anytime you see this kind of a big polling miss, it's always correlated across states, which means that if she's off by this much

in Florida and in New York, the swing states are not competitive. There's no fucking way that the swing states are going to be close. And so Polymarket knew, just looking at the statistics, that this is over. Of course, the swing states, Trump is going to win. And so they knew almost immediately that this is going to be a sweep. Trump is going to dominate the swing states and the election is over. And so you had this weird ritual where like, you know, 2, 3 a.m the the network television is still you know counting down creating all this drama around oh my god you know what's gonna happen in wisconsin it's way

county by county it's entertaining absolutely it's it's entertainment reality sport it's it's a reality show a and b like i will never forget 2000 when the network's all called gore you know gore's president and the world celebrated out in the streets. And then all of a sudden it was hanging chads in Florida and going to the Supreme Court and all those things. So I think that there's a fear, obviously, of calling things too early and then being wrong that's baked in. But now that we have the result, I think you're completely right about polymarket. I was generally bullish on it, not bullish enough, clearly. But we have the results. And we have a obviously resounding victory for Trump, which many I think rightfully view, including myself,

as a victory for the crypto market. I'm not going to, we only talk about crypto here. I'm not going to debate whether it's a victory for humanity or immigrants or any other people. It's a victory for the crypto market. It wasn't just Trump, though. I mean, Joey Krug here, obviously, Brian Armstrong tweeted about this, but we have 113 pro crypto candidates elected in the House of Representatives with only 47 anti-crypto. Obviously, there's a lot more people in the House of Representatives, but these are outwardly a pro or negative position. Three pro in the Senate elected and only one anti in the Senate elected. Guess who that is? Guys, Elizabeth Warren. She lost all her friends. They all left her not willingly by losing. Elizabeth Warren won. Sherrod Brown was the one who lost.

I said she's alone on her island because all her friends are gone. Alone. I see. I see. Yeah. Yeah. That's the one. The anti-crypto army have won in the Senate. Yeah. Yeah. I got you. That's the one. The anti-crypto army of one in the Senate. So clearly, there's also a resounding victory down the line, right? And a lot of this, by the way, is both parties. This is not specific to either party. I mean, we've now arrived at the best case scenario for crypto in the United States. Hence the title, Up Only, What's Next for Crypto and Bitcoin After Trump's Big Win. I've long made the argument, I think Bitcoin was going to be fine, but the crypto industry itself really was, I think, hinging on this. Well,

now we've got four years to see what we can do. Agreed. I mean, this is very much not what I was expecting. I mean, especially having a sweep, controlling all three branches. And like now, you know, we've got a basically Republican conservative judiciary. We have Republican president and we have complete control, Republican control of Congress. So sky is basically the limit. There's going to be no check on Republican energy for the next two years, at least. That is really going to energize a pro-crypto movement in the US. The other thing too that I think is a big win, particularly for Fair Shake Pack,

which is the big super pack that's funded by crypto capital, it has completely turned crypto into no longer being a partisan issue. Like if you look down ballot at those pro versus anti-crypto races, it's both Democrat and Republicans now that have flipped to being pro-crypto. There was a great line by Justice Slaughter who is at Paradigm and he was speaking to somebody who was a Biden White House staffer that said, Democrats being anti-crypto is over. It's just

not a tenable policy position. Crypto is here to stay and the Democrats finally figured that out. So I think we're really headed to a new world where the doors have been swung open and they're going to stay open for crypto for the foreseeable future. I agree. As long as we don't stand back and freed ourselves. Yeah, somehow we've managed to completely lift that specter.

Yes, completely lift that specter that was hanging over us. And so it's really weird. Honestly, the feeling that I have more than anything is kind of like the feeling of a dog that like breaks into the food cabinet. And there's just like all it's like everything that you were planning for. And it's kind of like, shit. You don't eat so much. Yeah, yeah, exactly. You can only eat so much here now like we're yeah yeah exactly you can only eat so much so like we're here now all of the potential um obstacles are

gone it's just kind of us and us and the dog food and um yeah actually interesting question as a vc right you're a u.s based vc right obviously um dragonfly I my initial reaction was, holy shit, I can shit coin to my heart's content probably after the next three months. Like, I don't need to hide from every like sponsorship, whatever it is. Like my my lawyers have long said, dude, just don't touch any of it because you're a public personality and you're going to be on the radar. Even if you do nothing wrong, they can make an example of you do none of it. Now, I feel like I have this like I can, you know, shit coins my heart's content, so to speak. I don't know how much my heart wants it. Does that matter to you guys business-wise, or were you structured already in a way that you, I mean, you obviously can invest in things that

are not available to the average US investor already, but. Yes. Yes or no. So, I mean, one thing is that, you know, in America, we never penalize the individual for what they buy. We penalize the seller, but we don't penalize the buyer. That's right. That's exactly why Binance got in so much trouble, by the way, guys, for allowing Americans, but the Americans using a VPN didn't get in trouble. Yeah, exactly.

Because it's just un-American to be like, hey, you're not allowed to gamble on shitcoins. Of course you can gamble on whatever you want. But I will say, but the people who are raising investors and amazing crypto things, because of that, won't touch individual Americans. They won't allow us. Right. Exactly. Exactly. Exactly. So I think you're going to see that change, but we got to take things one step at a time. Trump is not in the White House yet. He has to get inaugurated. And once he's inaugurated, he has to pick out a cabinet and figure out who he's going to put at the heads of agencies. Because the House is under Republican control, probably anybody is going to get fast-tracked, especially early on. There's just a, I think, a honeymoon period with this Congress that, you know, everybody's going to be like, oh, you know, yes, sire, you know, whatever you want, we'll approve anybody as long as they're sentient. But I think what you will probably see over time is things start to fray.

Governing is really hard. Governing is hard. Every single time you get a wave in either direction, two years later, the house goes the other way. Yeah, yeah. I think in two years, almost certainly, we're going to see divided government at least. But the big thing is that we still don't know who's going to be heading the agencies. And we also don't know, there will almost certainly be a swing back towards being permissive and being open to business, but we don't know how long that swing is going to take. We also don't know how many of these cases are going to get dropped.

Some of them might get winnowed down. We also don't know a lot of the stuff around investor protection that is sort of the spirit of what the SEC and CFTC are supposed to be doing. We don't know how much of that will go away. It might say, look, it's kind of the right thing to do to continue on with these cases until Congress gives us clarity. That's not impossible for a position from a commissioner to take or a chairman to take. So we don't know yet. We should obviously assume it's going to be better. And these next two years will definitely be better. Very likely we're going to see some kind of legislative package go through Congress and it's going to get signed into law probably by the end

of next year. So stuff will happen, but the details are very much yet to be worked out. So I have a pretty high expectation of the base case, but we also have to remember, even in relatively friendly environments, you get a lot of horse trading and a lot of stuff that you end up negotiating this or that. So let's wait and see. I don't want to get too ahead of ourselves about what actually to expect. It's not going to become a total anarchy like DuPont. Yeah, I don't think, see. I don't want to get too ahead of ourselves about what actually to expect. Like, it's not going to become a, you know, total anarchy like, you know, Dubai. Yeah, I don't think, no, I don't expect that at all. I just expect that, like, if the president himself is launching multiple NFT projects and World Liberty Financial, that those things probably are not going to be deemed illegal

unregistered securities in the future. Even if you think the worst of him and it's just in self-interest which i'm not saying at all but like yeah just i mean that seems like an obvious conclusion so if you're average american hopefully you'll be able to do these things i mean listen you you and i have discussed this at length we believe generally in the four-year cycle i think election or not we'd kind of be here anyways uh personally i think you know bitcoin this is when it would be going up, six months after the halving, and soon there's going to be this major... This is another catalyst to make it bigger maybe, but the money will flow into the layer ones and the altcoins,

and then everything's going to go down into the investments. I mean, we had that bull case before. Do you think that this puts it on steroids, or do you think we could have just fallen on our heads and done the four-year cycle thing and skipped all the conversation? I don't know that I believe that macro and politics doesn't matter. I think it's overwhelmingly clear at this point that they really do matter. And if Kamala had won, and if you, for example, had a bout of higher inflation and Fed refused to cut rates, I think you would see a very different environment for crypto. Maybe not for Bitcoin. I think Bitcoin maybe has hit that escape velocity that it's going to keep getting more and more

institutional buyers. And a lot of that is, at this point, more and more untethered from retail. The reason why Bitcoin has done so well in this last year is actually not that retail-driven. A lot of it has been this institutional demand and the institutionalization of this asset. But when you saw Trump win the election, Coinbase rocketed up on the App Store. And we're now seeing, I think we're basically set up for an actual retail cycle, which we didn't really see that much this year. We saw a little bit of it in March. But for the most part, retail has not really come back into crypto yet.

And so that's the biggest thing that I'm looking for is, are we going to see a retail-driven liquidity cycle? If so, then I agree with you, alts are going to go wild. Because of course, in order for alts to really run, you need retail. Institutional investors do not get alts to go crazy. And we need more retail than in the past because there's so much more supply of all of those tokens that people would want to buy. My long argument that I'm sticking to, especially now that Musk is likely a part of the government, is that retail really comes back when Doge approaches its all-time high again. Because that's where all the money went.

NFTs and Doge is where the actual retail interest was last cycle. I remember talking to CZ and other CEOs of exchanges because back then you had to be on a centralized exchange to change means, which is a little different now. And I'm all saying we literally can't onboard people. CZ made a quote to me. He said, there's not enough people in China I can trade fast enough to onboard people who want to trade Doge onto Binance. Right. Right. And so imagine how many people are underwater holding Doge from 30, 40, 50, 60, 70 cents that will be really interested if they randomly check their portfolio again and see that they're in the green. Yeah. I completely agree with that. And I think this cast of characters being now the presidential team of Trump, JD Vance, Elon, Joe Rogan. This is a really strong setup.

Ramaswami, it's a really strong setup for having not just pro-crypto policies, but just pro-crypto vibes in the country. And I think for retail, that kind of matters a lot more than the legal stuff. I don't think retail really cares that much whether laws get passed or whether this stuff is easy to trade or it's easy to this or that. Like retail was doing all sorts of crazy shit

in order to trade NFTs in 2021. And like, the amount of pain that users will go through in order to like go do the speculative thing of the day is really just surprising, especially in a market like this. So I think if you see that kind of energy, especially as rates come down and a lot of liquidity gets unlocked from money markets, that money's got to find somewhere to go. And crypto is going to be one of the obvious places where you see a lot of capital flowing in. Well, I mean, listen, the way Bitcoin has risen here, the flows we've seen with ETFs, even in the immediate, the rise in altcoins, there has to be new money at this point,

right? Because everything's going. I'm not saying it's enough for all of that. And I didn't even realize, I mean, I kind of like became dismissive of meme coins. I thought they had their cycle. Pumped on fund hit record revenue amid AI meme point frenzy surging to 30.5 million in October. So somebody's over there. Maybe it's still the same old washing machine, but there's clearly some new money already starting to trickle in that hasn't been there for the past six months. Right. Right. Yeah. I mean, so look, I think this cycle, my guess also is that the cycle is going to evolve going into next year. Whenever you get retail really coming back in in a muscular way, something changes. The game changes a little bit.

I don't know how that game is going to change, but I don't think it's going to be just 2024 on steroids. I think it's going to look different. There's going to be something else that changes about the meta going into next year that will probably surprise us. And it'll probably look very stupid and annoying at first. And then we'll all be like, oh, I guess that's the thing now. I'm assuming you're still very optimistic for the prices of our beloved crypto assets in 2025,

before I let you go. To say the least, I am very optimistic, yes. So many incredible things are about to launch that nobody knows about outside of the incredible things that we already have trading. That's right. That's right. I mean, it's a time that I think for folks who've been building over the last couple of years, a lot of them have been biding their time, waiting for the right environment into which to give birth to their creation. I think 2025 is just going to be a really wild year for crypto. And we've been through this gauntlet now of like two, three years of the stupor of atoning for our sins after the fall of FTX, the fall of Luna, all of the excesses of 2021 and 2022. We had to pay them down. And this feels like now, okay, you've done the work, you've done the atonement, you've done the penance.

Now you get to reap the rewards. I feel like I already went 10 rounds with primetime Mike Tyson. So if we're still even alive, yeah, I think this is the time. And I know you got to go. Thank you so much, guys. You can follow Haseeb right down in the description. One of my favorites, as I said, man, always a pleasure. I appreciate you tuning in from the other side of the world. Have a great night. Thanks so much, man. Absolutely amazing. I

mean, it's fun to be back in a place where we can just generally share bullish sentiment price aside to have this optimism, I think, backing crypto and our market across the board, even with retail. I know a lot of people, even personally, anecdotally, who are kind of waiting for the election to look at crypto again, or waiting for some clarity. And now they believe they'll get clarity or are still waiting for that clarity. But now they will come in next year when we start to get some legislation and regulation. So like I said, you guys can have your obvious and justified thoughts on what the election means for the country and any of your chosen issue,

abortion, immigration, et cetera. We're here to talk about crypto, and it's hard to argue that this wasn't a huge win for our industry. Now it's time to look at some charts. I've got Dan here. Pretty wild, man. Best, I think, market day in history after an election. I guess the markets liked this. It was interesting because I thought there was a chance that if we did get the red wave that was somewhat priced in,

we might see a quick sell-off. Quick, just to kind of sell the news event, but man, it didn't happen. Yeah, the market remembers last time where, you know, we dumped initially because the market was really surprised when Trump won. And then it was just V shape off to the races and no looking back. And so, yeah, ideal scenario as far as what crypto bulls could have hoped for. And again, you know, I like the way you're compartmentalizing things. Just, you know, tunnel vision on one topic there's we don't the thing is like i really like i'm not a journalist by by any stretch but i feel like if i'm going to cover what's happening in this space i could have to focus especially on these you can go in such

wild tangents on what's happening in this space and never like inject my personal politics and it's that which is hilarious because i'm both a libtard and a Trumper, apparently, if you just check the comments every single day, depending, because I dare say, you know, what's actually happening. And it's not always horrible on either side. The other day, I mispronounced Kamala's name, I put the emphasis on the wrong syllable. And apparently, that's I found out that that's a disrespectful thing. And so people, based on one syllable, people were like trying to, you know, talk about my political leanings. And I was just like, man, I'm not paying attention that much to this soap opera. Yeah. I tweeted something. I tweeted something yesterday to the effect of,

you know, if you believe a presidential candidate is going to make the price of things much lower than you're wrong, they may make the prices rise slower. Inflation is the system. And they thought it was an anti-Trump tweet. I dared say that the price of chicken won't be 75% down by February. It's like, guys, inflation is the system. They say they want 2% inflation. That means goods are going to rise by 2% generally. It's not that simple. A year, if you think he's going to give us massive deflation, we might be in a depression. Yeah. There are many systems in our country that don't have a ton of impact based on who the president is. And the financial system is one of those.

Yeah. Although they love to credit and discredit presidents for what happens in markets. But let's take a look at Bitcoin. Blue sky breakout, new all-time highs. Yeah, beauty. Very poetic that it happened as the election votes were being counted. Yeah, it's again, we can compare it to the last.

I mean, this was a blue sky run, right off monthly EMA 12, new high, no follow through. This retracement, this is where we use our Fibonacci to help us determine probabilities and things. But depending on where you pull down here, but the retracement was 618 or over 50%, which is not ideal for the bulls. And then you look at this run. And again, you pull here, it's 50%. If you pull from the bottom, it's, you know, three, eight, two,

that generally defines the bull flag, but much less retracement. Both of them bounced off monthly EMA 12. And now we just want, you know, we want 80,000 plus just to have a nice clear follow through. But, you know, it can take its time. It's doing everything it should. And we love our back burner trades where I designed this trade style for 2017. When you want entries, you don't want to be buying the top. You wait for the trade to come to you. And so on election night, Bitcoin shoots up and then it heads down to first five minute oversold conditions after the run up. And that's your entry. And if you don't want to chase, you wait for the trade to come to you. First five

minute oversold, we then get a new all time high up to 76. So again, just utilize the back burners to wait for consolidation on the shorter term timeframes to look for your entry to have good risk reward and not be chasing. Yeah. I mean, where do you think Bitcoin is heading now? Bitcoin, I'm looking at, well, we got the FOMC later today and it's going to be volatile, in my opinion, just because you look at the NASDAQ and we have no resistance. We're in blue sky breakout, but we also went straight up. This is the four hour chart. So we can have a lot of volatility in both directions just because of the lack of price levels established. So definitely going to anticipate some volatility. But again, I do believe we're in dip buying mindset for the market. So the market will be looking to

buy those dips. And Bitcoin, right now, what I would want to see is healthy 12-hour consolidation when we get it, ideally holding the back test of previous resistance as support. Just keep the longer term, the 12-hour, the daily consolidation healthy. And again, more follow through. We're over the all-time high by a few percent, but we want to be over it by five, 10% for it to be nice and convincing, leave no doubt and keep that bold narrative going. I love that volume though, on the breakout, like it really confirmed it for me. And you saw it kind of bouncing around, right? At resistance and did close significantly higher.

So, you know, what I wanted to see, I did, but now, right, as you said, we want to see follow through. We don't want to be like trading back at 65 for one or two weeks, right? You know, you want to want to be staying up there, in my opinion. Yeah, we want that seven number in front or an eight, we'll take an eight, but seven or eight, 80,000 don't want to go back to the 60s too quickly. And we're watching the dominance chart. You know, we're always wondering when all and It's running. It's running. Yeah. I mean, we had a solid red day today, but we need to see a solid red week for the start of a shift. And again, it's just an extremely strong uptrend and that has to be lost. And so

we had a nice day on ETHBTC yesterday as Ethereum broke its local resistance zone that it was battling. But again, you and I have been watching this trend line forever, and we can go out for a month with ETH gaining against Bitcoin and still not be over this resistance level. So again, it's just got to be trends. It's got to be nice. Quick moves are great, but then it's got to follow through with the higher lows and the higher highs. And again, it's just a lot of proving to be done from the other side, which is the alt coins. Yeah. I can't believe we've been here long enough to have talked about so many touches of that line and to be so far away from it. That means you and I have been doing this show for quite a while because we've gotten cautiously optimistic at that resistance a few times. I wouldn't say optimistic. We said, listen,

you're at resistance. But I am encouraged at least by this bit of price action now that we're seeing to the upside. We have a lot of bullish divergence, I think. But this could just be another oversold bounce. Yeah, exactly. I mean, step one is break the weekly lower highs to even start thinking about a potential bottom. So yeah, just have your criteria laid out in terms of what you need to see happen. And that's really important. Let's just talk about Bitcoin, bigger picture. The last cycle, I had a lot of personal friends that were like, I'd ask them, what's your profit taking strategy? And it's once we get over 100, thousand and so much of the market had that mindset over a hundred thousand, I started thinking about taking profit. And then we didn't get to a hundred thousand and those people literally

held the entire way down. And, you know, now they're vindicated, but they also sat through a massive drawdown. And so you have to have game plans for both situations. And this is going to translate into talking about cannabis real quick, but you have to have a game plan for your ideal scenario where it goes your favor and it hits your targets. And you have to have a criteria where it doesn't. And maybe if Bitcoin confirms a weekly downtrend from here without hitting your target of 95,000, maybe that raises a red flag and says, okay, I have to adjust my game plan because things are not going the way that I thought they would. And to transition into cannabis, we were watching the Florida vote. We had the nice run up into the vote. What's the 60% garbage? I live in Florida. Listen, whether you believe in legalizing marijuana or not, the fact that for some reason it just arbitrarily needs a 60% instead of a 50% vote is just so nonsensical to me. Yeah, it's something like because it's in the Constitution.

I forget the reason. But yeah, it's wild to have, you know, 55, 58% of the vote and lose. It's like, wait, but the majority wants it. Anyways. Yeah. But it was a steep hurdle. And, you know, heading into that, it was a coin flip for me. It could go either way. And just in terms of trader mindset, from the summer to the fall, I was, let's say, 85% confident that Florida

cannabis stocks would run up into the vote. Into the vote, I'm only 50-50. So my position size is a full position for where I'm 85% sure. And then my position size is a half position or less for when I'm 50-50. And of of course it fails and it dumps massively. You know, it was TCN and F here was down 50% at one point yesterday, uh, because it's a huge setback in terms of what could have been. Uh, but again, you have to have a game plan for both scenarios. And people were commenting on my stuff saying it's a hundred percent going to pass. And I just know that those people got crushed because they didn't even fathom the possibility that the thing they didn't want could happen. So to tie that back in,

you have to have game plans for best case and worst case scenario to ensure you're not blindsided. And then it just a deer in the headlights as the flashing numbers do the thing that you didn't think they were going to do. Absolutely. Absolutely. So what else you got up there? Is that two more? Yeah. Russell had the massive breakout. It hit all time highs, adjusted for dividends. It hasn't gotten there unadjusted yet. But again, I'm going to be on here with you in a couple of months talking about being cautious about blow off tops in the broader market. I mean, the NASDAQ is now up over 100% with the S&P 500 from the 2022 lows. I mean, we're up 100% in less than two years or right

about two years. And that's not sustainable. And again, you look at NVIDIA, the three month timeframe, I've seen many of these charts. Nailing the top is extremely difficult. But when we top, we will pull back 30 to 40% and see three month consolidation on this timeframe, just like the NASDAQ did back in 2022. And yes, it was a longer term higher low, but all this being said, I'm a bull. I've been a bull in the markets for almost two years at the, well, over a year and a half. And eventually this euphoria ends a certain way. And the faster you run up, the harder the pullback is going to be. And so for me, the last checkmark I needed was Russell at all time highs,

NASDAQ new all time highs. So that's not me saying we're about to top right now. We got seasonality in our favor and all that, but, uh, end of 2024 into the start of 2025, I'm going to be talking about a potential blow off top scenario that we have to prepare for. In the meantime, biotech sector is a potential laggard. It's testing a resistance wall at 103 XBI. And if we break it, it's two and a half, three year highs. So that's one laggard name that hasn't gotten the breakout that many other names have already gotten. Yeah, totally agree. Weed stocks are tough. Is that the last one?

Yeah. And I'm done with weed stocks for now. You know, I come when there's people, people will say like, where were you all 2022? It was a bear market downtrend. I'm not a bag holder. I don't see bull opportunity. I'm not going to be trading it. So I disappear for a while and then I come back when there's opportunity. So I'm done with pot

stocks for the foreseeable future. It's easily the weakest sector in the markets and lower highs are for shorting. And I'll be back at some point. But again, just moving on to where there's more opportunity in the markets. Absolutely agree. Well, thank you, man. Always checking in. I think it's going to just kind of stay bullish for a little while, but I agree. Like some eventually got to pay the price for that massive bull market. And hopefully we won't be the ones screaming $1.5 million Bitcoin by March or something when we get caught up in the euphoria high on our own supplies. I'm confident we won't be. People must just be depressed to hear you say you're done with weed stocks though. Yeah, but I come and go. I very much am not in love with the story. I come and I trade it,

I make the profit and I leave. And that's the way that that market, that sector should be approached as history shows us. Well, follow Dan, guys, on X, of course, Chart Guys and on YouTube for a lot more of this content and really appreciate being here as always, man. Thanks guys. I'll see you tomorrow for the Friday five. Have a good one.