The Wolf Of All Streets - Uptober Starts Tomorrow! Will Crypto Skyrocket? | Crypto Town Hall

Episode Date: September 30, 2024

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So Dave, are you going to be our man on the street now at Masari Mainnet? Well, I'm happy to be. Live takes? I probably will be. I'm going to sit in the macro stage and actually watch content. I'd like to see if I'm down, I'll be able to meet Tom Emmer. But, you know, it's person to person. We've obviously talked on some of these spaces before.

But, yeah, it'll be interesting. I'm just in a cab on the way from the hotel. I stayed in Midtown to make my wife happy. Now down to Pier 36, which is kind of, I don't know if you remember, but it's kind of on the edge of Manhattan. There's no good place to stay to walk there. It's a good venue. Yeah, and you're on the expressway.

So getting in and out of there is problematic. It's been a venue. Yeah, and you're on the expressway. So getting in and out of there is problematic. It's been a couple years since I've been. I'm very curious, after being at Token 2049 in Singapore, Nashville, Austin, these huge conferences, how a New York City-based conference is doing sort of at this point in the cycle in 2024. Because conferences like YouTube views and all these things, they generally track the market, right? Success wise. Well, I could tell you that I was at a small conference that Solidus Labs put on last week called Daycom. And the tone is dramatically different. Now, understand something that, you know, you and I have talked about this, and this is actually relevant, you know, for from a spaces point of view, but that no matter who wins this election, the price of Bitcoin probably is fine. In case one, which is Trump, I think decentralization will get a leg up and actually

start to take flower in the United States again. In the case of the Harris administration, I think that a takeover of crypto, at least, you know, in the United States, by mainstream institutions, and, you know, with everything heavily complianced and surveilled, etc. And just decentralization being kicked to the curb for four years is likely, but understand that if you're in New York, you're going to get a leg up in either case, one way or another. And so that's, I think that's why're in New York, you're going to get a leg up in either case, one way or another. And so that's, I think that's why the mood is. It's not, in other words, the presidential election from a lot of the people who reside in this city, it doesn't care. Now, there are lots of other crypto hotbeds around the United States that are on pins and needles.

And so I think that really is relevant. Gareth, you were with me at Token 2049. We obviously sat down, you, myself, and Mario did a panel there. I mean, the vibes were impeccable, right? Yeah. And a lot of excitement to the title today. October starts tomorrow, but the talk of the town was, here we go, right? We're cycling up.

It definitely felt like that to me. I mean, I went to to token 2049 two years ago and it was a pretty good conference um and it was a very different landscape but but this year was it was massive honestly the the sheer scale um the quality of the speakers that were there i mean it was pretty much the who's who right that was was in Token 2049 in Singapore. We've actually just been reviewing what conferences we're going to be covering going into the end of the year. I'll be heading to Bitcoin Amsterdam. I mean, I live in Amsterdam, so it's right here. I'll be going to that. But there's a load of other big conferences happening. Quite a few in Dubai. We'll be in Dubai towards the end of the month as well. And then into November and December. I'm really interested to see what's going to happen in the next few weeks. I know there was a lot of talk about the FTX payments starting to happen this week. Our team has been looking at that.

I'm not quite sure if it is going to happen this week, you know, that people are going to start getting that that money and it seems like the the money being released by the way is largely been bought by uh people who buy claims and it's not actually going back to retail but go ahead right well i'll tell you as as a retail holder and not not a huge one but enough that it matters i and i get my status you know they've asked me for my tax information but they have not asked for banking information yet. And there's no way to do distributions

without asking for that. So it has not gone to retail yet. Yeah, because there was a lot of hype about that over the weekend. Like I saw quite a few big KOLs putting out statements saying like, oh, get ready. All the FTX money is coming this week. And there was a lot of frost because of that.

But we all have to take a step back and try and do some due diligence here and figure out, you know, where that money is. I saw as far, I even saw people saying that their friends had gotten money back and they had bought Bitcoin. Right. That seems just untrue.

So maybe I'm missing something. But I did see those posts. Listen, I think a lot of the FTX money over time will find its way back into the market, but I don't think it's like an immediate catalyst with thighs at any given moment. I mean, that seems to be the consensus or what it should be. Dan, go ahead. Yeah, I just want to say um i sold my ftx claim i had about 30k on ftx and i went belly up um and then a group chat with some friends and they're like oh yeah one of them used this this company so i took a look at it and they offered me about 95 of the face value of my claim so i was like yeah whatever sold it stable coins didn't ask for any tax information whatsoever

and they also gave me a referral code and I referred a couple of other people and that got me above 100%. So I've already had above 100% of my claim back in USDC and already choked it into Bitcoin. Just wanted to chime in there. No tax details, pay the stable coins. It was very good. Wow. Okay. And speaking, that's really interesting. And I guess worth talking about what other catalysts will be, right? If the FTX claims are not necessarily one of the biggest catalysts, we do have a history of October being bullish, especially when September closes well, which September is supposed to be the worst month. We're obviously up for September.

And when we've been up for September, we tend to have huge Octobers and Novembers. If you're taking a look at election cycle, the halving cycle, the four-year cycle, it's almost scary how many things seem to align for right now, right? Especially as Bitcoin kind of changes structure and has made a higher high for the first time in this entire, I guess, bear market or consolidation or sideways market since March. So, I mean, just sort of going around the horn here, I have the expectation that we will at least be attacking all-time highs in the coming three months. But it scares me that it's consensus. I mean, Dan, what do you think? I mean,

what's your base case for the coming months? I'm not going to say things are going to happen tomorrow. It has in the past. We've literally seen huge bumps on october 1st but what's sort of your base case and we'll go around yeah it's so annoying because um i had to pay my credit card bill today so i was supposed to sell some bitcoin to pay my credit card bill but i just made the minimum payment instead i thought i'll leave in bitcoin because probably going to go up more over the next month then the fee will come from my credit card bill so i thought um yeah i think you're right. A lot of stuff structurally setting itself up for an October. Even the start of the year, my friend from Winterview was saying that it probably goes sideways a bit and then down September and we'll see all this kind of stuff. And I was very bullish. I was just like, no,

it's just going up into the right all year. Who cares? But I think I said before, I think structurally it's very, very bullish. I built a little bot that tracks the PERP funding rate on Deribit and sends me a ping every half an hour. And for the last two months or so, that has been very low, like 1%. And it's even been negative funding on Deribit on the PERPs. But recently that's exploded. It was up at like 11%, 12%, 15%, which is like really high. So you can see somebody or some group or whatever are certainly piling into the perps long at size somewhere because that funding rate is really moving high. So I think, yeah, structurally it's very well structured.

I don't want to give price predictions, as I said before, price predictions like nipples, everybody's got one. Yeah, but I think it's structured very well for uh for october which is why i'm delaying paying my credit card bill how to get your hand up go ahead yeah so for me what the real hot topic of the week is it has to be eigen layer guys and the reason why i'm saying this and it's kind of a continuity of what i was saying last week as in the d5 bubble is very undermined in terms of the value it could propel to the altcoin cycle and very few actually talk

about how important this is for the next altcoin cycle as well but as you know scott right we know that rwa is going to bring in tradFi on-chain, which is great for liquidity purposes, which is great for accessibility, which is great from an investor standpoint, because now you'll be able to invest on-chain to asset classes and sectors that are negatively correlated to crypto cycles. So all of a sudden your risk appetite changes. And instead of having all this TVL and all this DeFi on-chain activity disappear literally overnight, as we saw in the DeFi bubble of 2020 to 2021, it will stay on-chain. And there will be opportunities regardless. And we don't all have to go eat at McDonald's, right?

So that's one really important part. And why is Eigen Lair the hottest topic of the week? Well, first of all, we've got to understand, guys, we're talking about $50 billion of TVL. That's bigger than Aave. That's bigger than MakerDAO. That's bigger than any staking platform out there. And I think that this movement that we're seeing on-chain, if we look at the block and we look at DeFi TVL as of today, we're already back to almost $150 billion in TVL. And at the height of the DeFi bubble, we're roughly around $210 billion. So we're close to the height of the DeFi 2020 bubble. And another argument to back this claim on why this is the only and most important topic of the week is that right now we're starting to

see double digit yields kick back in. Back in the day, Mario had me on the show when Celsius went down because SwissBorg is one of the top DeFi earned platforms in the world. We never lost a single dollar. And I must say, guys, if you just go look on at PancakeSwap on Ethereum and you look at stablecoin LPing, you'll see that you have 28% today. And once again, think about this. You you're looking at U.S. bonds, corporate government bonds, you're not yielding more than 3% to 4.8%. We're talking about 28% for LPN stables on both sides. Obviously, there's a DPEG risk, but these opportunities are kicking back in. A lot of the DeFi experts at SwissBorg are already forecasting 10% to 15% potentially on the Eigen Layer restaking collective. And why is this so important? My last point, Scott, really to solidify this and hit the nail on the head is that Eigen Layer is building technology that does not exist in TradFi.

This is technology, this restaking technology, although it may resemble rehypothecating some of your assets, rehypothecating is actually your assets, rehypothecating is actually, in terms of paperwork and administrative work, takes months and months and months, if not years, depending on the jurisdiction you're in. So this is really novel. It's very innovative technology. And if it holds, if truly we can secure multiple networks by restaking our tokens and getting higher yields, I think this will attract a lot of institutional capital, which by the way, a lot of the institutions who originally

started staking in the season one of Eigen layer airdrops, very few actually claiming those tokens, which is super bullish, because as you guys know, for all the farmers out there trying to, you know, milk the incentive economy, usually up to 90% is redeemed and then dumped. Here we see more than half of it still being staked and not redeemed or claimed. So super bullish eigen layer guys. And what do you think about Q4 to the question? Q4 in terms of price action? Yeah, I mean, listen, it's supposed to be October, this is when we're supposed to cycle up. That was sort of the original question. I mean, what is your base case here? Well, I think well, on the yield side, I think Q4 is going to really bring a lot of capital on

chain through these, you know, yield and earning options. In terms of the price action for the market. I mean, I like to watch Raoul Pal as my macro economist. And for multiple reasons, if we go back to the US elections, within the first two months, 60 days at office, historically, it's been shown that risk on assets have performed very, very well because they have that confirmation bias that they really want to put into play. So a lot of people are seeing liquidity come in from the elections. But I think once again, Scott, I think this earn, the ability to earn such high APY is also going to drive a lot of institutional capital, and a lot of whales that are going to be tired from TradFi yielding products. Boyard, how are you viewing the cycle right now? I feel, you know, I'm feeling about the same. I agree with you guys.

Just take it easy right now. I'm not worried about the ups and downs, but I do think I share your nervousness about agreeing with everybody about October, but I'm not sure that everybody's so sure and overinvested.

I think it's going to be great, just like we expected, and everyone's going to get left behind carlo polish i think uh the banana zone is coming and i think what we're seeing as far as the loosening of liquidity not only here in the us but in china is a very good indicator. I'm also watching CZ's account. You know, he started tweeting again. He's talking about his two thirds through a book, he's going to continue to invest in crypto. And I think his moves and whatever he does publicly is potentially also going to contribute to to October. So I'm bullish. I think I think we are going to see number go up. Dwayne, go ahead.

Thanks. Good morning. So yeah, I mean, China is a is a big factor here. Because I mean, you know, the Chinese government, as we've been saying for like months here, they're finally putting stimulus where it matters the most. And that's directly to the consumer. So we've seen, I don't know, something like $40 billion injected into the economy. And this will be good for the purchase of vehicles as well as white goods. White goods is also something to watch in regards to purchases in China as well as exports. So hopefully this helps the overall economy in general. Like sentiment has been, you know, horrifically low.

If you look at like something like the cats and noodle index, the sentiment index, it's been on decline for the whole year here. You know, state banks have been taking some, you went off the table as well, which has been keeping their dollar low, which also helps for exports. If you look at that in the face of the U.S. dollar, also, the U.S. dollar has been fairly resilient over the year. I think it's like one, down like something like 1% year to date. And if you're going along with the idea or theory of the inverse relationship between the dollar and Bitcoin, it's not so great news in the face of inflation coming down. But, you know, historically, rate cuts have put downward pressure on the US dollar. So, you know, that should bode well for Bitcoin and bode well for gold as well. So,

you know, if we're looking at this overall, if we're seeing, you know, rising gold, you know, increased liquidity out here, some pressure that may come from unemployment, because the next FOMC meeting is in, I believe it's November, something like November the 7th, and China returning for the interim, plus the election, right? These are some very positive long term trends here, which should bode well overall for Bitcoin prices moving into, say, like the next couple of months here. Gareth, did we get your direct opinion on the market,

or did we just kind of generally speak? Yeah, just kind of generally. I think from everyone, from all the people that I've been following that I hold in fairly high opinion, I do think that we are going to see some sort of an uptober and probably some upward movement towards the end of the year. I'm not a markets expert. I don't actively trade as much as probably everyone else on this space. But from what I'm seeing and from people that are in the know, it does look like it's kind of pointing in that direction. And I think macroeconomic factors are also playing a role in that as well. But yeah, I generally try not to do price predictions or anything like that.

But it does seem that everyone's super bullish. I've seen a lot of people are really saying perhaps we're seeing the start of alt season finally as well. I know a lot of the people in the Solana community are going crazy over Mu Ding and other stuff like that. So there's a lot of optimism. That's what I'm seeing on my timeline. Is Mu Ding that little hippo thing?

Mu Ding is that little hippo thing, exactly. Such a boomer, man. I've been seeing it on my timeline little hippo thing exactly such a boomer man i see it i've been seeing it on my timeline with hippo pictures but i didn't know that it was an actual like a token yeah it's a meme coin uh on the the little hippo that was born i think it's in a chinese zoo um and yeah like typical typical meme coins animals it's uh it's pumping it's crazy yeah and to your point i've kind of talked about this with dave on macro monday i don't usually pull up a bunch of altcoin charts on our macro youtube show but you know this time the charts at least from a technical perspective it does

look different right bitcoin made uh even though only temporarily but on the daily for four days i think and on the weekly made a higher high above closing above 65,000. That changes, as I said, that bearish market structure for technical analysts of lower lows and lower highs. You now have a higher high, a higher low, and then another higher high. So you kind of have a new structure, even though it's back below. What you look for in those situations, what we were talking about last week, is you just look for now another higher low. So it means that dips are for buying. But if you take a look across the board at altcoins, at least, I mean, there's so

many, it's hard. I was looking at the layer one charts. Most of those also made higher highs even ahead of Bitcoin and that structure and they're kind of getting that dip now. And that's what's different this time is that altcoins, I think, have disproportionately suffered throughout the past six months since making kind of highs in March and seeing the peak of mean coin madness and now they're looking really really healthy you know and I think that uh that's a sign it's exactly once again what's supposed to happen right now in the cycle that's what kind of makes it scary is because you could have fallen on your head at this point and had it gone into a coma for 3 years and we're exactly where we should be. You could have ignored every show

we've had and discussion of price action and here we are. And I've made that joke for literally years. And it's weird to see it play out the way that it's supposed to. But if altcoins charts look good and Bitcoin chart looks good, and we're looking at potentially higher highs and lows across the board, we should start to see some real action, in my opinion. Doesn't mean it's going to happen tomorrow again. I just think that if you want the most basic view from a technical analyst, I think now dips are for buying. I mean, that's just the view. And maybe you get these retracements and you buy dips. Doesn't mean everything's going straight up.

But for the first time, it does look like we may actually get that quote unquote alt season. I guess it's worth discussing, though. Does alt season look the same as in the past? Or because there's so much new supply in the market, so many new tokens, so much attention on the meme coins. You have to be more selective this time where you can't just throw a dart and everything goes up. Is there going to be any sort of price action that's accruing to things that actually have value or utility or TVL or meaningful metrics? Or is it just going to be yet another hype cycle? I mean, Alex, you've been here a long time how do you view it outside of eigen layer yeah listen it's a great question scott you know

by the way guys i'm not working for eigen so it's just pure love that i'm sharing because i'm really excited about the innovative technology technological approach listen as you said scott i think we need multiple bubbles i do think the d DeFi bubble, once again, and I know I'm repeating myself like a broken record, but the reason why I'm saying this, Scott, is because people, when they see TVL attracted on chain, then what happens is they're going to create clones, right? And they're going to throw in, you remember those crazy LPs where you would say, okay, we want the TVL, we're not going to be able to sustain our model, but people will be able to farm 30%, 40%, 50%, 60% APY with very, very low risk just with simple DeFi lending. So I believe a bubble will shape in the DeFi space.

A lot of the DeFi coins that I think were kind of no longer a part of that hot narrative will come back into play. So we saw a little bit of price action on Aave. Morpho is going to launch a token as well. So a lot of these lending slash money markets platforms with real fundamentals, as you said, Scott, I think now that the market is maturing, people are a lot more kind of tilting towards either the value investor side of really looking, as you said, all the on-chain metrics, how many users, how many daily active users, monthly active users, transaction volume, sending across chains, et cetera, et cetera. And we see other coins, right? Like Sui that has a

big increase in on-chain activity. Aptos is starting to see a pickup. So I don't know if there are other bubbles other than the DeFi bubble that's starting to form, but I do think you have a really good point, Scott, where either people will go all in on the meme coins, the celeb coins, all this stuff that's just fun, that feels like a casino. And then most of the capital will flow into those with strong fundamentals. I'd love to hear other thoughts. Yeah, that would be like a barbell approach, right? Buy Bitcoin and then trade the meme coin and ignore everything in the middle, which is kind of what people were viewing this last part of the initial cycle here. I don't see it that way, by the way, but just saying. Dave, are you still here? I don't

know if you're still here. Yeah, I'm here. I literally just got into the conference. I'll let you, well, you're going to be our man on the street later. Well, no, no, I do want to say a couple things. First of all, i think it's great when our when carlos starts talking about the bazanis and uh that that's going to track me up but i think that the people you know from a price prediction point of view look timing has never been well either micro timing when i'm trading i'm actually pretty good but you know macro timing well it, it's kind of difficult. But the simple reality is the back half of October as we approach the election into the post-election time is when I think we might start seeing some interesting fireworks. You know, it's really hard to do predictions when you don't know if there's going to be a black swan event, either geopolitically or something else, or a white swan event that comes out. But absent any of that, i think that you'll see

some significant allocations uh to bitcoin and at the same time i think a lot of bitcoiners are taking profits out of bitcoin and moving it into altcoins and so the real question is which one is bigger uh i personally think the asset allocation to bitcoin will be bigger which is why i'm so bullish toward the back half of the fourth quarter. But, you know, we'll see. I think that's really the question that we're talking about. October is one of those great, great points because statistics are fun, right? You know, October is traditionally a really good month, except when it isn't.

And when it isn't is when there's a black swan event that happens right as asset allocation is changing. And we've seen a few of those in our history, but it's not terribly surprising, as we said before, why it is that the crash of 87 rules in October, why Black Monday and 29ers in October, why we've seen results. It's because asset allocations often are done and decided in October. And when that happens at the same time as major stress, we'll see. I personally think that the central banks are pumping in liquidity. I won't say takes the risk out of the market because nothing does that. And anyone who has that view risk tends to get crushed, but it certainly makes it a lot less.

And as I said this morning, I think that the Fed put is back. You know, people kind of think the Fed has their back in the investment of the world, which is dangerous because I don't think the Fed cares so much about that particularly, but it certainly seems to be the opinion. I agree. Carlo, listen, you're you're a meme coining lawyer uh do you think that this uh cycle looks different do you think that it's going to be mood dang dominating instead of actually fundamentally sound projects you know it's funny you you mentioned that i i saw that there was a

dip and a real slowdown obviously in, in the Solana meme coin ecosystem. And I thought to myself, you know what, if we could see one more pump in Solana memes after breakpoint, then that would probably be a good point to exit and move on to alts and rotate back into more stables and L1 performers. But however, we saw the opposite effect. We did see a post breakpoint pump for certain meme coins. And then we also saw new meme coins like Mudang jump in to the fray and go exponentially up. So I am really unclear as to where we stand in meme coin season. I don't know if meme coins are going to replace NFTs as the flex of this cycle, where people will roll their profits on Bitcoin and certain alts into meme coins.

I don't know if the gambling season has closed. I've heard Rand talk about it that he thinks it might have cooled off, but indications on the ground from meme coins I'm seeing and activity, Scott, I don't think it's slowing down well i think what slowed down i think there's still a lot of volume in meme coins obviously but you don't see at least i don't see on my timeline people sending you know 30 million dollars to an anonymous x account in five seconds what's definitely slowed down is the pump dot funds being like an outright scam yeah yeah i think the pump dot fun and the launching of of you know hundreds if not thousands of mean coins a day is clearly not sustainable but if something catches you know you've seen this hippo on

talk shows and news feeds it's it's somehow found its way into the Sunday morning shows that I saw yesterday. So when something hits like that in the moment, it does tend to create attention and memes are driven by an attention economy. So I think we're still going to see a strong meme cycle, but it's going to be very, very targeted. It's going to be either the established memes that people already know and recognize in the space. And it's going to be things that just go viral and give people a chance to gamble. Makes sense. Trying to get a few of the guests fell off stage, back up, Boyard, you're back up. What do you think?

Or did I put you on the spot when you couldn't hear us and make it super awkward? Yeah, did you? I couldn't hear anything. Sorry, can you hear me now? Perfect. I want to know your thoughts on Renaissance art, Middle East politics, and the war in Ukraine. That's perfect. My feelings on all of those are the same. Okay, perfect. Dan, I'm just kind of going around the horn here. I mean, do you think that we're going to see this barbell of just Bitcoin and memes?

There's actually been a lot of, I mean, fundamentally strong news. I think Alex, you're the one who said, Sui and a lot of these actually seeing a legitimate on-change volume increases. I mean, Ethereum is the sort of forgotten redheaded stepchild right now, but the BlackRock Ethereum ETF just surpassed a billion dollars. It's one of the most successful ETFs still in history, even as it's been wildly disappointing. Yeah, to answer your question, I think so. I think it will be barbell. I think Bitcoin's in a world of its own and I'm over 95% allocated to Bitcoin. I do a little bit here and there, but I think Bitcoin has just escaped really from the rest of crypto. And you see that

Ethereum is underperforming, Solana is underperforming, etc. You'll get meme coin mania, obviously. A lot of my friends in the group chats I'm in kind of think that Bitcoin is too far away. It's dumb kind of unit bias type stuff, but they think you're not going to see 100x or whatever on Bitcoin, which is true. So they throw it into every kind of shit coin and meme coins but to answer your question yeah i think it very much is bitcoin on one end and meme coins on the other end but meme coins are always a flash in the pan they very very really stick right um so i think it would be a barbell but one side's a lot heavier than the other and that side being bitcoin anybody else particular thoughts on this uh topic before move on? I want to kind of talk about macro just a little bit because all of this, you know, Dave Weisberg sort of laid it out. It happens not in a vacuum, you know, and with the election coming up and we're seeing rate cuts around the world. I mean, Dwayne, perhaps best for you to take this one first. You know, all signs

seemingly pretty bullish for markets in general, which could be even a sort of further catalyst for the cycle that we already expect? Or are there these black swans sort of that Dave alluded to that we might not be seeing? Well, I mean, there is something to be said about black swans. So obviously the geopolitical events that are occurring around the world is also something to watch. There's also a major labor dispute happening in the U.S. right now in regards to shipping and sort of these things that, you know, cause overall supply squeeze and shipping squeeze are of concern. However, at least in my view, for the interim here, most of these sort of threats are actually bullish for Bitcoin in the sense that, you know, these sort of things will, you know, just bring sentiment overall down for the overall economy where and people will look to Bitcoin as a safe haven. And conversely, I might be speaking out of both sides of my mouth,

but the added liquidity also helps Bitcoin as well. So I almost put Bitcoin in the same slot as gold as all of the prevailing macro here and the prevailing tailwinds are actually positive for Bitcoin. If not within the month here of october um perhaps over say like the next three to six months also um like i was saying before with the uh rate cutting environment here if we are going into um an easing cycle that's also positive uh for bitcoin overall so i think things look much better for Bitcoin than they did, say, three months ago.

Ran is here. So I'm bringing him up on stage. He's connecting our co-host. Ran, you're here. Did you hear any of that? Because you obviously jumped in with thoughts. No, I just jumped on. I just jumped on, Scott. I just jumped on for moral support. I appreciate that. I needed it today. We're effectively just talking about the cycle. And we are actually on topic for the title. I mean, we have October starting tomorrow. We were talking about sort of structurally, whether we believe markets are just going to go up, and it's going to be that obvious, and we have a huge Q4. And then where will that value actually accrue? If it can actually be a

dart throwing, everything goes up at some point, or if you're gonna have to be more discerning, or even a barbell with Bitcoin and meme coins. I know that's a lot, but you've had pretty outspoken thoughts about supply coming onto the market with pre sales and such. So where is this money all going to go, assuming you believe we're gonna get this bullish Q4? So we saw that the Bitcoin dominance broke down below the July trend. So that's the July-August trend. We had a breakdown in Bitcoin dominance, albeit small, but a breakdown is a breakdown. Looks like a lot of the altcoins you know last night we had a dip in the bitcoin price but the altcoins actually

were actually quite strong relative so i mean i'm expecting i was expecting shenanigans today obviously because it's the quarterly close and it's a monthly close and i mean you've got a lot of hedge funds which are short you've got a lot of hedge funds, which are short. You've got a lot of ETFs, which are long. So I was expecting shenanigans today. And I think I'm expecting a bullish Q4. I mean, how can you not be bullish with elections, with China printing? I mean, I don't know if you saw the Chinese stock market, but holy shit. I mean, it's crazy.

Quote, unquote, back in a bull market, according to Bloomberg. No, quote, quote unquote it truly feels like 2020 all over again like that's the magnitude of a stimulus brokerages are staying open 24 7 they had their biggest trading volume ever today biggest trading volume ever um and they had a like a 15 intraday jump on the Beijing 50. Japan said that they're going to be more accommodative money policy. So they're not going to be tightening. They're going to be more accommodative, which is like big news.

Like, kind of look at this and I'm going, it's hard not to be bullish Q4. And then there's the catch-up trade for the NASDAQ. There's the catch-up trade to gold. It's like, I'm looking for a reason to be bearish and i don't know just as hard as i look i just can't find it so you know my thesis is bullish q4 uh bullish altcoins q4 i think bitcoin's had a great run i think bullish altcoins q4 and i think like as much as i hate to say it, the cycle is playing out like every other cycle, so I'm going to play it like every other cycle. I hate saying it because

it can't be that easy. There's got to be some challenge in what we do. I do have to imagine some stuff is dead. Like all the pre-sale stuff from previous cycles. I do think you actually came on a couple months ago a month

ago and we did that sort of game where you said name a cool token i'll tell you if it's going to do well do you remember that yes yeah is that still the idea there obviously at the conclusion was if it already has a community all the supply is already on the market it has a chance to do well which kind of leads to a lot of the dinosaurs, right? And not the new things. And previous cycles, it's always been like, what's the new hot potato? I'll give you another one. If you look at tokens like Athena, right?

So like Athena had no chance, but once the token went from $1.53 back to $0.38, or it actually went down to $0.20. So you had one of those high fdv low float tokens but it went down 90 so once it's gone down 90 then you can actually start then it's actually like fair for retail to start buying it and like athena wasn't a wasn't a bargain at a 50 billion i mean it came on get this like it came on at a 25 billion dollar fully diluted valuation 25 right yeah no 25 billion dollar fully diluted valuation on in the beginning can you imagine that and then you look you look at it now it went to as low as like

i don't know the exact number but i think like three billion okay like it's three billion it's still expensive but it's not as expensive as 25 billion. So like if these tokens actually go down and then they give retail investors an opportunity to buy them cheap, and then people actually start lending, making up money, lend up, making up money.

Yeah, I mean, it feels like, you know, these tokens can actually recover. So now you're seeing the, you're actually seeing the recovery, so to speak. This is wild. I'm looking at the chart. So just on Binance, right? So 11th of April.

So sort of even after they launched sort of after the altcoin hype had just slowed, but it hit a high of $1.51. And we're talking about this April and it went below 20 cents less than a month ago and now it's at 38 cents right so you're right it's kind of doubled off the lows but about 50 to 20 cents over a summer is pretty aggressive that's exactly it that's exactly the the situation that's exactly. Once these tokens get cheap enough, look at another one that you should look at. It's Saga. Saga is another one of those which launched at a very high valuation, but then it came into a much more reasonable valuation. I think I'll just give you

the actual numbers. Give me a second. It came onto the market at $6.52. $6.52 would give it a kind of like a 10, no, $8 billion fully diluted valuation. Thing is, then it went all the way down to a $1 billion, $1 billion for the valuation and now it's back up at 3 billion. So with all these high FTV low flow tokens, there's going to come a point where they actually become cheap enough for

people to invest in. Right. They are, but isn't more supply going to just consistently come onto the market. Yeah. But I think the market, I think the market's already priced in that, that additional supply.

That's why the way it went down to 80 cents. Yeah. So I'm bullish again. I've always been bullish, but I'm, I'm, I'm like, I'm very bullish now. Yeah. And I'm just, I mean, I've always been bullish, but I'm very bullish now.

Yeah, and I'm just, I mean, I think, you know, one thing, you've got to get used to the fact that you're going to have leverage flushes. Get used to the fact that in a bull market, you're going to get leverage flushes.

Don't be surprised when you get those leverage flushes. Yeah, that's exactly what we're going to do. Yeah, no, I agree completely. I. And that's exactly what I got. Yeah. Yeah. No, I agree completely. I just think it's worth noting like what,

what there is, is there is a vibe shift there and that it's not today or yesterday. Like it's been around for a little while now, but the feeling that, Oh, it's down 90, 95%. We should see some upwards action is very different than what we felt

before, which is, it's down 95%. Let's make a meme about how there's still 90% to go, you know, starting from here. Like there is a feeling that like you said, like you were saying, if there's a community and some sort of thesis, then things can go up. Not everything will go up, but the feeling that things can go up and to build a thesis and maybe bet on it, like that's a vibe shift.

And, you know, that's the bullishness that's back. And I think October is going to be great. That makes a lot of sense. Gareth, you're throwing up thumbs up. So I'm assuming that means you agree with everything being said here. I love all the bullishness. Yeah, I don't know. I'm sorry about that.

Yeah, genuinely, that's just what I've been seeing the past week. I can't really explain it. Like I said, I'm not an expert trader. I'm not in the game like Ran is and other people here. But, you know, we report. We report on what people are saying and all the big names are kind of putting this stuff out there. For me, the hardest thing is just sifting through the noise and kind of figuring out what are really good signals and what are some of the KOLs and stuff out there that are just, you know, pumping their own bags or, you know, suggesting that this or

that might be a good buy or whatever. And that's the hardest thing right now to kind of sift through. In terms of the meme coins, like you were talking about a little bit earlier, for me, what really stands out now and from all the conversations I had in Token 2049, it's definitely tokens that have a really big community around them and a really big sort of hype. It's very easy to look at things like muding and then obviously just mother because iggy azalea has been going hard on that and you know she she is kind of trying to promise that she's going to bring some utility to what they're doing and obviously all of the people

that are invested in that token believe that it is that um but at the end of the day she's good she i mean she she's in the attention economy game. She's a celebrity. She's a musician. She understands what it is. She understands her brand, and she's played into that, and I think that's why you've seen a lot of capital flow into that meme coin. And, I mean, if you go into Soul Flare, it's not even in the top 30 in terms of market cap,

but it's still got a load of capital that has flowed into it. So that's the kind of stuff that I'm looking at with like keen interest now is, you know, it's the, it's the pay pays and the doges of two years ago that are kind of cropping up now. And what are they going to look like going into December? Will they still have this kind of momentum or are they just going to fizzle

out and people are going to move their, their capital into, into other tokens? I honestly don't know. Brad. going to move their capital into other tokens? I honestly don't know. Ran? I thought you were lifting this mic. Go ahead, Alex. Yeah, listen, I mean, so when it comes to the overall macro sentiment and just accompany what was said, you know, since the 50 basis points drop, you know, a lot of people are looking at the money inflow and specifically the global liquidity index.

Because, you know, we talk about correlation with gold, S&P 500, Nasdaq. There is no better measurement tool than the global liquidity index. It actually is 84% accurate in terms of the positive correlation to Bitcoin. So the global liquidity index is here. I think one issue that is still not fully here is the risk appetite, because, OK, the money is inflowing. But do people really want to put that money into Bitcoin and some of the crypto assets? Right.

And for the risk appetite, I think the reason why people are still dabbling and kind of on the fence is because we still need to see GDP growth. We still need to see inflation recurring and ideally would also see quantitative easing. But I think one thing that's really, really important to add to all of this is we talked about macro, we talked about Bitcoin dominance, we talked about timing, which by the way, I just looked it up, but October has been up to over for every single year except for two since the creation of Bitcoin. So it is the most positive month when you look at the stats. But I think, Scott, one metric that's really important to look at is total market capitalization across crypto as a whole. Right now,

we're at $2.3 billion, which is roughly 65% from the previous all-time high, which hit around $2.8, $2.9 trillion. Sorry, trillion, not billion. I would say it's got to be trillions. Yes, we're really screwed. Absolutely. So I would add, you know, just based on, you know, looking at all the terms, it's pretty safe to say that I think by the end of this cycle, we'll be at anywhere between six to eight trillion US dollars of total market capitalization, depending on whether you're conservative, whether you're aggressive, whether we have many, many different bubbles from different sectors, asset classes or sub asset classes. So I just thought that that third metric, which target total target market capitalization is a really important point to add into this discussion. I see Rand has exited. I love when he drops in, drops a couple bombs and leaves. I think we've pretty much covered it for today, guys. Everybody, please follow everybody on the panel. This is our crack squad of experts androcketed. And we'll see if it literally

goes parabolic on October 1st, as we've seen it do occasionally in the past. I think it was 20, was it 20, 2020 when it went completely parabolic on October 1st, right when the date hit. Absolutely nuts. I would love to wake up to that tomorrow. And I know all of you would too. Guys, thank you very much. Appreciate all of you and And we will see you tomorrow, 1015 a.m. Eastern Standard Time. Bye.