The Wolf Of All Streets - URGENT: Bitcoin About To Hit $100,000 | But Get Ready For A Pullback

Episode Date: November 21, 2024

I’m thrilled to welcome back one of my favorite guests, Noelle Acheson, author of the Crypto is Macro Now newsletter. Together, we dive into the wild developments in the crypto space and celebrate Bitcoin’s remarkable ascent to a major milestone.  Noelle Acheson: https://x.com/NoelleInMadrid Subscribe to the Crypto is Macro Now newsletter: https://www.cryptoismacro.com/ In the second part of the show, Dan from The Chart Guys will share his market analysis and some trades.  The Chart Guys: https://www.youtube.com/@ChartGuys  ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEKDAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/   ►► The Arch Public Unleash algorithmic trading. Discover how algorithms used by hedge-funds are now accessible to traders looking for unparalleled insights and opportunities!  👉https://thearchpublic.com/  ►►TRADING ALPHA READY TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS? THE BEST TRADERS IN CRYPTO ARE RELYING ON THESE INDICATORS TO MAKE TRADES. Use code '10OFF' for a 10% discount. 👉https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker  Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://x.com/scottmelker Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.com/ Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe   Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c   #Bitcoin #Crypto #Investments The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

Bitcoin just hit $98,000 American dollars per coin. We reported all summer on the crazy and hyperbolic and exaggerated price target of $100,000 by the end of the year. Here we are, just 2% shy, and it's not even December yet. Still roughly 40 days left in the month. I think there's a lot of concern as to what will happen if and when we get to 100,000, if that's going to be a major psychological resistance or price will fly right through. And of course, what it all means for altcoins. Should we be getting ready for a pullback here or is it finally time to see the rest of the market shine? I have two amazing guests today. Of course, Noelle Atchison

first, and then Dan from Chart Guys on the back half. It's going to be an amazing show, guys. Let's go. what is up everybody i'm scott melker also known as the wolf of all streets before we get started please subscribe to the channel and hit the like button gonna go ahead and bring on noel right now who has an amazing new microphone, sounding crisp and terrific, putting you to the test. Thanks so much, Scott. Really proud of my new sound setup. It only took me like two years to get it right.

It's a bull market purchase. You don't spend money on microphones in the bear market. Everybody knows that. Also a reminder that, you know, don't give up. Don't give up. Just keep on trying to get, took me a long time. Yeah, I'm just going to take a very quick gander here at the Bitcoin chart, obviously sitting at 97,400 topped right about 98,000. But I think what's astounding is that this is where we started election night 69,000. And it only takes going back to August to see when we were trading at 49,000 below 50,000. So effectively a 2X off the bottom of all of that consolidation in just a matter of

two and a half, three months here. This has been an astounding move. I think a lot of people doubted it was going to happen. We hit our highs in March, had the normal summer pullback, the normal halving cycle, and here we are. How do you explain $98,000 Bitcoin here on November 21st? It's weird. I will just say it's weird. When I woke up this morning and saw the price, it was... I would make a terrible trader because it's hard to not get excited about this and we all know traders shouldn't. So again, I'm not a terrible trader. Nothing I say is investment advice, but dang, we knew this day would come. That doesn't mean it's not surreal to see it. at $150,000 in 2025. Now, $150,000, when you see that Bitcoin's doubled just off the August lows, another 50% for Bitcoin, it's starting to remind people how fast this thing can move

and why it's important to actually always be in the market with Bitcoin because those moves come so fast and furious. And then you spend the rest of the year sideways, which in solidity you're chopping down. And also how it's a totally new paradigm. I remember being asked back in August by a journalist from a reputable newspaper, why do people keep making these outlandish price predictions for Bitcoin? And she was referring at the time to a prediction Adam Back had made back in March that Bitcoin could reach 100K by the end of the year. Outlandish. And I did the numbers and Roberto said it's actually not outlandish because even from back in August, all Bitcoin would have had to increase by per day was like around 2%,

which when you break it down and you compound, it's really not that much. And it looks like we're going to reach that not only by the end of the year, but who knows, maybe by the end of today or if not by the end of the week. It's a reminder that when it comes to Bitcoin, there are no pre-established rules that apply. Sure, it's unusual for an asset to appreciate as much as Bitcoin has, but it's an unusual asset, period. And we can go into, if you like, into some of the narratives that are driving not just this leg, but the buildup that we've been seeing for the past, I'll say since the crash in 22, really, the narratives for many are long term, the narratives are short term as well. There's a whole lot going on.

Yeah, we can cook through some of the narratives very easily here. I think obviously the first one, if Bitcoin crosses 97k, they should update this to 98k. I guess that, you know, wrote it to a few hours too early. Continuing wild Trump trade rally. We're still obviously talking about the Trump trade, but interestingly, ahead of the election, people said the Trump trade was the move into the actual election. And then we would probably get a sell the news event. I even thought that that was potentially going to happen, right? You've priced in all the things that you think are going to happen. And then when it happens, you get a bit of a pullback. But we've obviously seen, of course,

Nvidia smashed earnings yesterday. That's always big news. But Trump continuing to just appoint Bitcoiner after Bitcoiner after Bitcoiner specifically for our market. Is this still a Trump trade rally? Because I would have told you if I looked back seven months when we topped in March, that we would break out sometime in October or November. Didn't necessarily know we'd go straight to 98. But you know, this is part of the cycle as well. Yeah, absolutely. And yes, this is part of the Trump rally. So that's the short term part of it. Remember how everyone was convinced it was all priced in? And surely there'd be a sell the news

event. And again, we got slight pullback. But but no this is still the trump rally i think largely scott because we're now seeing news that he is considering appointing a crypto i won't say regulator but someone in charge of crypto policy separate from the other federal agencies this was not hinted at at least as far as i was paying attention in the campaign promises this is more than we expected. It is serious and it will reassure everyone who was worried that maybe Trump is just words, that he was just saying what he was saying, expressing support to get the votes. No, this is serious. And not only because of what it would do to galvanize some of the other regulation that we're waiting for in the US to galvanize institutional support

for this asset. The signal it sends to regulators around the world, I think that is something we're very much overlooking. We're going to see regulators scramble to issue supportive frameworks so as to not lose startups and investors to the US. This new piece of information that we've gotten over the past 24 hours, I didn't expect that. It's interesting. He loosely floated the idea of some crypto counsel or advisors. But to your point, this is almost like a new cabinet position, right? A crypto czar or something to that effect. I'm going to throw John Deaton's name in the hat for anyone who's listening. I think that he would be an amazing person in that role. I don't know if you'll get it, but man, would that bother Elizabeth Warren,

which I think would involve the satisfaction. Worth it just for that? Yeah, worth it just for that. But I think you're right. And I think having someone in that role to make sure that all of these new regulators at the heads of these agencies and secretaries are actually communicating with one another

to make sure that we have cohesive crypto policy, because there is a risk right now still, even with pro-crypto people at each agency, that the CFTC is still battling with the SEC over jurisdiction, that we don't really know what the DOJ or the FBI are going to be doing. So we do need somebody at the top of that pyramid to make sure that it's all consistent. Yes, absolutely. I confess I was a bit concerned that we were getting ahead of our expectations here, that we were going to be disappointed when the Congress actually took their desks and got to work.

I do think we're not going to get the strategic reserve because I do think there are other priorities that the new Congress is going to be focusing on. And I was also doubting Trump's interest in really supporting something that is not exactly America first, simply because the ramp up in price will benefit even America's enemies. So I was skeptical that we're going to get that. But with the crypto SAR appointment, it doesn't matter. It's the overall support that matters. Building in the end, delivers a much longer term value than the initial ramp of any supply squeeze might bring. So I was worried we would get disappointed, but now I'm starting to think maybe we're underestimating the speed of the changes. I agree. And you talked about the idea of a strategic reserve. Obviously, that's been one of the huge narratives. We know that Senator Cynthia Lummis is pushing that very hard. She believes she can get it through in the first hundred days. Trump has loosely alluded to at least not selling the Silk Road Bitcoin that we're holding and which

would de facto be a strategic reserve just by holding it on the balance sheet, depending on where it moves. But I'm wondering how much game theory there is, whether it gets approved or not in the fact that it's even been floated for all these months. Then he won, which makes it at least a non-zero chance that it happens. And you have senators talking about it. We've had some conjecture that other sovereigns might be buying Bitcoin. And if you're another central bank and you know the United States could be coming and might actually be buying to front run that reserve, doesn't this also, besides putting other regulators on notice, put other central banks and sovereigns on notice that they might need to add Bitcoin? Because the minute we have a strategic reserve, every central bank in the world is going to have to very seriously consider adding Bitcoin to the balance sheet.

Indeed. But then we have to ask ourselves, at what price does it get too expensive? At what price do they step back? Much like we've seen with gold, we've seen central banks around the world step back from buying gold because suddenly it feels a bit expensive and that hasn't had nearly the run that Bitcoin has. So it is going to be price sensitive on that front. But I do think you hit on an interesting point there. Again, I'm skeptical that we'll get

the US strategic Bitcoin reserve, but I'm pretty confident we're going to see other sovereigns announce holdings. I think they've been accumulating for a while. I've heard enough anecdotal evidence for me to lift my normally perennial skepticism on these rumors. And I think we're going to start to see some announcements. So it just makes a lot of sense. I mean, we all know many emerging economies that struggle to get dollars when they need them to pay for essential

imports. And, you know, what if, Scott, what if there was an asset that they could hold as a diversifying reserve that they could convert into dollars 24-7? Yeah, we've had some interesting examples, right? I mean, I kind of liken MicroStrategy's path to El Salvador's path, because they were both massively down and taking heavy criticism, but now obviously MicroStrategy is shining. But as a sovereign example, similarly, but obviously on a lesser scale, El Salvador now is paying off their debts, right? They're like successful bonds. Everything that they did in Bitcoin has effectively been vindicated and has actually helped the country tremendously outside of even the appreciation of the asset. You can go to Argentina.

It's not Bitcoin specific, but obviously, they came in with a chopping block and they now don't even have inflation. I mean, I think Argentina effectively has the same inflation now as the United States when they were at like thousands of percent just years ago, just because they have a department of government efficiency, their own equivalency of a doge, which we're getting. So I think it all ties together. A lot of people are just seeing the path from other countries that were unexpected and saying, maybe this will work for us. And I mean, you have to also just as a company, you know, look at MicroStrategy, Microsoft now getting a three minute presentation from Saylor. Just seems like right now is that moment when the Bitcoiners are

so right that we might see companies and countries FOMO in just like we've seen retail in the past. Absolutely. We're already seeing companies every counting this morning, I think over the past week, there's been three companies announcing Bitcoin as a reserve. And many of them are doing it for the PR, fine. But still, we're going to be seeing more and probably even some very large companies. It wasn't that long ago, Scott. You remember when Tesla announced Bitcoin on the balance sheet? Apple was looking into it. That really wasn't that long ago, pre-FTX, but we'll be back in that rarefied air pretty soon, I'm sure. And here's one thing that many people tend to overlook about Bitcoin, and it's hard for non-nitro-natives to understand, is the reflexive nature of Bitcoin buying. By that, I mean, we're seeing a lot of stories,

MicroStrategy and others, and the rumors of sovereign accumulation, buy Bitcoin for long-term holdings. Long-term holdings. That means that these Bitcoins are being socked away in addresses that don't have any plans to sell soon. So that means that the supply of Bitcoin that is readily available for new buyers, of which we know there are going to be many, given FOMO and growing awareness, well, that supply is dwindling fast, which triggers a scramble for what is left, scrambling for the scraps, basically. And the basic underlying misconception that many have is that Bitcoin is the only tradable asset today whose supply is totally distant, totally disconnected from its price, the only one. When equities run up, you issue more equities. Same with bonds. Even when gold runs up, then that makes new mining techniques suddenly profitable.

So even gold supply is sensitive to its price. Bitcoin's isn't. It's the only asset that can claim that. Yeah, it's very important, sort of the point that you alluded to, that when these companies and countries eventually buy, if they aren't already, that they view this as the replacement for cash in the balance sheet that they would be holding and not just some trade that they're looking to flip on us at $125,000. I think a lot of people obviously look at this micro-strategy run. I mean, this is insane. I'm looking at the chart right now. $540 pre-market. It closed yesterday at 473. It only passed 400 this week, 300 last Monday, 203 or four weeks ago. At what point does this become concerning? I mean, you have a centralization

obviously of Bitcoin holdings. Nobody believes that Michael Saylor would ever sell, myself included, but imagine if he did, or imagine that MicroStrategy simply gets squeezed down 40% or something. What does that do to Bitcoin? Or what does a Bitcoin drop do to MicroStrategy that's a heavily leveraged play? I love what Michael Saylor's doing. He started again this week at a 1.2 convertible note, then it went to 1.75. I think it's up to 2.2 something and he's having no problem raising it. With another 42 billion that he's raising, I mean, you're never going to have another Michael Saylor, but is there a point where this actually becomes dangerous to some degree for the asset class? Yes, but crypto investors aren't or shouldn't be averse to risk.

This is obviously going to be a risk factor because we don't even know what the regulators are going to be saying about this if they are able to say anything. But that's also where the new environment comes in. Is the new administration going to be supportive of this kind of thing or are they going to think, no, we really do need to stop retail investors from exposure to risk. It's a different paradigm and his timing is impeccable. I mean, assuming that this doesn't crash, which I don't think it will, he's going to be viewed as a Warren Buffett type investor in the future. I mean, you take a look, I bring up that chart again, it's just insane. I mean, they split, obviously. So the price I think was 120 take a look, I bring up that chart again. It's just insane. I mean, this is they split, obviously. So the price I think was 120 when they bought Bitcoin, not 12. There was a

10 split, but I mean, you're at $540. They bought Bitcoin in 2020, only four short years ago, and their stock was 12 bucks. Yeah. And the conviction, the conviction back then when nobody else was doing this. Yeah. I mean, he really sparked that 2020 run. He sparked Tesla putting Bitcoin on the balance sheet. And that's why I say there can, to some degree, only be one. So listen, we were talking about sort of narratives that are driving this. We obviously have the Trump trade. We now obviously know that ETF options are going to be meaningful. They did 1.9 billion the first day. I haven't checked the number on the second day. And almost everybody is long on calls. It was like a 12%

puts or something. So this is not the carry trade yet. People are not shorting the future to get long the underlying. So this is literally people just making these huge bets. Now you take a look, Bitcoin futures smashed through 100K barrier on Darabit. So it's already trading there, obviously, in the futures. We're in contango with higher price expectations in the future. And then you go to CME, which is purely institutional. Futures open interest on CME surpasses 215K Bitcoin for the first time as Bitcoin eyes 100K. So this is not simply just retail right now trading on these higher prices. And now unlocking options the way that we have is going to really allow much bigger money in the future.

It's still a 25,000 contract maximum, which is not that great for a larger institution, but it's really going to allow them to take serious directional bets on this bull run. Yes. And even beyond that, it's good for market makers. Market makers want to be able to hedge their exposure. They don't take directional exposure. They want to hedge. And this is a very inexpensive way to be able to hedge the market making in Bitcoin. OK, there are options on the ETFs, not Bitcoin, but they trade pretty much in power and BlackRock doesn't have a huge amount of counterparty risk. So this is a way for market makers to get more

comfortable stepping back into the crypto markets, more market makers, you have more liquid markets, which brings in more institutional investors. So it's a virtuous spiral, if you will. It signifies a more sophisticated market, but also not just for institutions, also for retail. For the first time, Scott, in the US, they have access to options and the underlying asset on the same exchange. That just makes it a whole lot more convenient. Yeah. We can finally trade this asset like we would any other asset. And it makes you wonder what's coming in the future once Trump is president and all these people are in place and we have a friendly SEC. Does this unlock the same situation for at least the larger cap altcoins, right? Bitwise now filed a Solana ETF.

Many already have. We're seeing even XRP and HBAR ETFs being filed for. We should get futures next year on the Ethereum ETFs, which massively increase interest in that market. And are we going to get to a situation here where Robinhood and Coinbase can just list everything and Americans can finally participate? With clarity and the right disclosures, again, there shouldn't be a reason why not. Clarity, disclosures. The crypto industry is not averse to that. They just want to know what the rules are. And next year, next year is just a few weeks away. I mean, it's all happening so fast. It's not, you're so right, Scott. Bitcoin itself is not the main beneficiary from greater regulatory

clarity because everyone pretty much seems to be in agreement within the US halls of power that it's a commodity. That's not really the issue. The issue is, as you've hinted at, the support for market infrastructure, the support for institutional services, and just the overall mood that it is safe. Safe in air quotes, obviously. You don't incur regulatory risk by investing in this new technology. Well, there's so much that I want to discuss, but I want to jump into a totally separate topic because your newsletter was amazing. And global crypto adoption, some surprising moves. You're referencing this Chainalysis report, which obviously I can't dig through 134 pages of that. Luckily, you did that for me. But maybe you can give us the TLDR

or the biggest takeaways and surprises that you had, because this is about regional trends and crypto adoption. We talk about price all the time, but the minute the bull market starts, we stop talking about the actual adoption and the important underlying things that will drive us through the next bear market. Yes, totally. I'm happy to do so. And then this will segue very nicely into another point I want to make about the current

run, and that is the geopolitical risk. What Chainalysis has done is create a series of proxies for crypto activity around the world. 151 countries looking at website activity for centralized exchanges, for decentralized exchanges, for retail, as well as for overall use. They create a series of indices and they bring it all together with geometric means and weightings into for overall use. They create a series of indices and they bring it all together with geometric means and weightings into one overall index. So they can gauge growth or trends in use of crypto assets around the world. And this is always fascinating to me. Okay, we're talking about proxies here, so it's not exact, but it's very interesting for the trends and it's very useful for for highlighting overlooked

segments of the market india has held its position as number one in terms of weighted crypto use by weighting obviously you have to take into account purchasing power parity and population number two is still nigeria but then suddenly we've had big jumps from countries like indonesia and no surprise here we go into the geopolitical risk, Russia. And this is fascinating. I mean, Ukraine slipped a bit. Others have slipped a bit. Vietnam slipped a bit.

But on the whole, it's a reminder that the United States is easily the largest crypto market by size, but relative terms, it's not. And this is worth, this reminds us it's really worth keeping an eye on what's going on outside of the United States, especially at a time when we see this, we wake up this morning to find that Russia has for the first time in history, yes, we're pretty nervous about this. Yes, I'm sure many of us are going to be adding to our crypto holdings just in case the worst happens and banking access gets cut off or who knows what. It's unlikely, in my opinion. It looks like this missile was launched in a very small range when it's a huge range weapon there. And it was not carrying nuclear warhead. It was carrying some conventional warheads

and maybe not even that because it looks like the damage was not extensive and it really could have been. But what happened here was that it launched and landed before anyone knew about it. And so this is a reminder that things are tense out there. This is a reminder that geopolitical risk does matter very much. And this is yet another driver, in my opinion, of the Bitcoin run today, as well as gold. Gold is moving despite a higher dollar, which again, moves against the trends that we've seen recently. It's been rather strange. We've seen sort of everything up, even with the dollar up, obviously stocks have gone up, Bitcoin's gone up, and gold has gone up. I want to show you the Bitcoin to gold ratio because we talk it to death on Mondays when Mike and Dave argue over

whether Bitcoin or gold will outperform. They had made a bet over here in March, basically right at the top for Dave. But now, obviously, we see that Bitcoin is outperforming and about to make an all-time high against gold. So is this strictly cyclically driven? Is this just because Bitcoin is the darling right now? Or do you think that there are actually people who would have been buying gold that are buying Bitcoin here for the same reasons you just outlined? I think we're definitely seeing some rotation

from gold into Bitcoin. Gold is gold, and gold will always form a part of traditional portfolios around the world because people understand it. It's been around for a long time and hey we like to be like gold jewelry but at the same time people are becoming increasingly aware thanks to the marketing efforts of the etf issuers and thanks to people around the world who are you know tirelessly talking about this new asset that can embody some of the qualities of gold but also do a whole lot

else besides more people are understanding that this is a diversification, if you will, perhaps even a stronger hedge because it is easier to flee across a border with a pen drive than an upsack full of ingots. And it is also, we can't overlook the fact that it is also an investment in a new technology. Scott, there is no other asset in the world that represents a new technology. By this, I mean the entire crypto class, of course. There is no other group of assets in the world that represents a new technology that can be invested in by anyone, anywhere. Normally, the benefits and gains from investing in early stage new technologies is only available to the

very wealthy. But here we have new technology accessible to anyone. That is also, it's confusing, especially for everyone who likes their buckets. It's very confusing. Is this a risk asset? Is this a store of value? Or is this a new technology? But it's especially fascinating for those of us that love complexity. Outside of a massive black swan or something unexpected, can I assume that you believe this run is ripe to continue? I do.

And I think that the Bitcoin money is going to trickle down into altcoins as it does right into that next year of the cycle every single time. People forget that 2021 was altcoin time, not really 2020, right? Now we're going into 25, four years after 2021. Eerily similar every single time. Exactly. I think there are some rules that aren't going to change in crypto. Everything changes. But I think one thing that will hold true is that Bitcoin will lead any cycle because it is the gateway asset. It's the largest, it's the most familiar, it's the one with the greatest variety of on-ramps as well as financial products. And let's use air quotes here, it is the safest of the non-stablecoin crypto assets.

So yes, Bitcoin dominates the early stage of any bull run. That's why it's important to keep an eye on the dominance index, which is at eye-watering levels now, but could go higher. When it turns, when we do see investors get comfortable enough with the volatility and the asset class that they want to go further out on the risk curve, when they start to rotate out of Bitcoin into some of the higher alpha, higher return assets, then we'll know we're entering the next phase. That doesn't mean Bitcoin won't continue going up. It does mean that the risk sentiment has shifted. And when we marry that with strong signs that retail froth

is now bubbling up to the top? Well, that will indicate we're near the top. I do think that's a ways off still. Yeah, you know, everybody's dying to see what's going to happen with Ethereum. I think it's I I'm not calling a bottom, but I think it's bottoming here. I said I think it gets front run above 30 kind of happening. It's pumping up today. We've got oversold conditions on weekly RSI, which has only happened four times, I think, in history.

And it's just time. Again, everybody's freaking out about ETH and they forget that ETH's not supposed to move till December or January of the cycle. It's what happens every single time. And then you have Bitcoin dominance to your point, which I would not like. Scary how fast it's climbing. This doesn't look like it should be natural. By the way, it's not because it's not a traded asset. So you have to take the chart with a grain of salt. But if it was, this is where you would think it would start to top out because this is where the real pain started in the first place. True. But this time narratives are different and the reach is different and the market

infrastructure support is different. So yes, this time is different. and the reach is different and the market infrastructure support is different. So yes, this time is different. But that said, yes, it is inevitable that the dominance index will turn at some stage. As we pointed out earlier, Scott, ETH does stand to benefit even more than does Bitcoin from a change of regime at the SEC, for instance. Okay, ETH is now accepted to not be a security, but all the other assets that run on ETH, all of the other layer 2s, the other DeFi apps, greater clarity there will bring more build, which will bring more users, which will bring more demand for block space, and so on. And again, a virtuous spiral. Well, Noelle, thank you so much for your time. As always, everybody,

please follow Noelle in Madridrid on x and of course crypto is macro.com for the incredible newsletter that you should all be reading all the time it's nice to be on with such positive sentiment yes it is refreshing more fun conversations than talking about the pain that we have throughout the years, or just being hopeful, but maybe wrong. Yes. And vindication. And looking through stable coins for some excitement. Remember that that was not that long ago. This is definitely interesting. And all of your readers, all of your viewers, sorry, all of you do take care of yourself because Bitcoin bull runs, crypto bull runs can be really exhausting. I have long made the point that this is far more emotionally challenging than a bear market because in a

bear market, you're stuck. There's no decisions to be made unless you're going to be the guy who capitulates the bottom. Generally, you're just sitting there and you check the chart and you go, damn it, and you move on with your day. Now comes the time where especially if you're all over the place in all coins, you have to make active decisions all the time. And in the middle of the night, important things can happen. So it's very, very stressful. Indeed. So good talking to you, Scott.

Thanks so much. Thank you, Noelle. Thank you so much. All right, everybody. Now we're going to dig into the charts. People just love Noelle here, by the way. I know she's at the back. But all the comments are how much people love Noelle. Literally. Thank you, nice lady. Much love, Noelle here, by the way. I know she's at the back, but all the comments are how much people love Noelle.

Literally. Thank you, nice lady. Much love, Noelle. Thank you, Noelle. I mean, every single comment. Every single comment. Dan, I'm sorry. They don't do that for you.

Her voice is angelic. I can't compete with that. You can't. You can't. You can't at all. But here we are. I know that you were luckily listening in the wings. Listen, I mean, it seems like we're at the beginning of a run.

There are some frothy signs, but you always have those even in the earlier stages of blow off tops and bull runs. I mean, I'm a little bit concerned about micro strategy. I don't know about you. We've got Justin's son. Like we're talking about the banana zone. He literally bought the six,

the banana that was duct taped to the wall for $6.2 million. We're starting to get crazy. I don't think it's really crazy until we get a proper alt season. And all I see is Ferraris and McLarens and Rolexes in my feed because I think that's coming, but it's time to start paying attention. Yeah. It's just, I mean, we're clearly in euphoria. You look at, you know, across all markets, we're in euphoria. It's just a question of how long does it last? And obviously it's not easy picking those tops. And I don't expect to pick tops whenever I'm taking profit or looking to make decisions. But what I like to do, I made a post on Twitter today is in these periods, I remind myself what fear is like.

I take myself back in time and I can feel it in my body. And that just helps remind me that, you know, I need to be rewiring my brain and doing the opposite of what, you know, my brain would tell me to do in a normal situation. It just helps keep things balanced because we know a fear, a pendulum swing back to fear will be coming. It's just a question of when, but we'll enjoy the good times for now. Yeah. So what are you looking at in this period? So right now, Bitcoin four hour EMA 12 has been the guide over the last few days. And, you know,

bulls keep complete control as long as that holds. Once we lose it, I'll go to the 12 hour. And I'm essentially watching right now to see if we get what we had last weekend or leading into the weekend, sideways 12-hour range, altcoin bulls come out to play on the weekend. And I'm watching for the potential setup. If we consolidate here today, pull back a bit on the 12-hour, create a sideways range for the weekend, and then looking for the alts to have another, that would be the third weekend in a row where it's very clearly all coin bulls time to shine. I almost wore my Ethereum sweatshirt today because I definitely feel it's time to be looking at it. And then I saw that it had already popped 9% on the day. So yeah, it's time to be looking. We got the dominance chart. I'm watching for this to be a potential rising wedge. I don't have high conviction that it is, but bull breaks with no follow-through

into a pullback. Definitely starting to pay attention for that possibility. And another thing I want to talk about is essentially, as you mentioned, micro strategy, I believe big money loves to run blue sky bulls to insane levels because they make a ton of money and it's easy to do with a lack of price history. And then they write it down. And I do believe that we're shaping up for that. And I'm very curious to see rotation. So just like Bitcoin rotation into alts, I'm looking for the same thing in MSTR. I'm looking for MSTR to set a temporary top and to pull back on the daily. And then where does that money go? Where does that profit taking go? And we're seeing MARA has been seeing some

significant rotation the last two days. And it looks to me like it's coming out of coin. If you look at coin, relative weakness, very clearly two days in a row on coin. And you look at coin divided by MSTR and it's showing us, let's do a MARA divided by coin. It's showing us a big rotation shift. And so just like we divide altcoins by Bitcoin, MSTR is the crypto stock bull, and you can divide other names by MSTR to see where that money's going. And so miners have been, as we know, the trash and people are very, very frustrated with miners. CLSK is still extremely weak, but I'm watching when MSTR tops, is it time for that rotation into miners? Just like when Bitcoin finds a temporary top, is it time for that rotation into alts? It's the same concept. And I do think we're going to see it.

Well, you showed Mara there, obviously. Marathon, I don't know if you saw, but they're doing a 600 and something million dollar convertible note to buy Bitcoin. So finally, someone said, enough of this. I want to be like Saylor, right? We can print this stuff. We can mine it. But we also want to buy it and, you know, kind of convert some

of that stock and this cheap debt into Bitcoin. So somebody else is jumping from the playbook into the playbook. I didn't love the transparency in comparison because they said, you know, we're raising this money. They paid back some convertible debt. We're going to use it for, you know, whatever business purposes. And we're going to buy some Bitcoin, no number, no nothing. A little bit. They could buy one Bitcoin and $600 million worth of machines, right? Exactly. So I like that micro strategy. I mean, they're pretty much telling us the day that they buy at this point. Like, we're going to buy at this price on this day. Not exactly, but very, very different transparency in terms of how they go about it. But I mean, again, just watching, you know, right now, MARA has this

eight month highs in play. And if we get over that, then very clearly the rotation will be taking place. So I'm looking for a temporary top on MSTR. And I'm looking for that rotation into these other crypto stocks. I don't know if you've taken a look at this, but this is a total market cap of crypto, including Bitcoin and Ethereum. So entire market cap. It topped just at $3 trillion in 2021, September 21, I think, on the 8th of November. So yeah, November 21, excuse me. We just hit a high of about 3.2. So we've passed it.

And this is ahead of any meaningful bull market for altcoins. We've already surpassed the entire crypto market cap from 2021. If you believe in blue sky breakouts, something's going to go up a lot to add to this market cap. Bitcoin has done its heavy lifting, I think, but man, looking pretty crazy. I mean, you look at total three, this is less Bitcoin and Ethereum. So all altcoins, not Bitcoin and Ethereum, and it's got a beautiful breakout, but still, I mean, you're still talking about over $250 billion off the highs, right? So it shows you that that was basically all a Bitcoin move as far as market cap to break out. But when these things catch up, the potential to me is just if, but yeah.

Yeah. I think the big question is what's the impact of the ETFs on this cycle? And that remains to be seen. But again, I just know that right now the capital that I have on an exchange for trading altcoins is the least it's been for any cycle just because I've been playing it through these crypto stocks and the ETFs just because of fees. And the past couple of weekends has definitely had me paying more attention and trading alts a little bit more. But I do believe that that funnel of capital to the ETFs is going to have an impact. And it just means it's going to be a little bit harder. You know, you're going to have to have some skills to look at the charts. Yeah. I mean, you're going to have to, and it's also hard, you know, like just this past weekend, I was looking at ADA as the same, very similar technical setup as a bunch of other names. And what makes that

the one that, you know, launches. Especially when we're having a conversation that you got to be careful and go for the newer narratives and things. And then all of a sudden the dinosaur that, you know, it just flies. There's a narrative that ADA is incorporating with Bitcoin as layer two. So there was some sort of news there, but come on. Right. I mean, OP today is up 30%. It's just like out of nowhere, it just happened. So you got to spread your chips out. You know, you can't put all your chips on one name, you got to spread them out a little bit and hope that you know, the one you got it on is the one that does the 30% that day. Yeah, I mean, quickly, as much as you say, you know, you have kind of less capital there to trade off coins right now. I'm assuming there are signals that could change that very quickly. Oh, just this past weekend. I mean, we saw it two weekends ago. And so this last weekend, I said, Alright, I'm assuming there are signals that could change that very quickly. Oh, just this past weekend. I mean, we saw it two weekends ago. And so this last weekend, I said, all right, I'm watching for this.

And again, it's important to lay out the ideal scenario. So I laid out a thesis. If Bitcoin trades sideways on the 12-hour and dominance drops, it means all coins are going to have another good weekend. And we saw that start to shape up. And so that definitely had me. Again, I've been trying to get off the computer on the weekends because I'm not in my real aggressive 2017 stage. But again, if- The market happens on weekends too. It is what it is. You're going to have to put it in for

six months or so maybe. Yeah. I mean, when it wasn't happening on the weekend, I got Tesla, Nvidia, I got all these stocks that are moving the same percent as altcoins. But once you're getting 10% to 30% moves on the weekend, you can't get that opportunity elsewhere. And so that definitely brings back the attention and the trading capital. Crazy. A lot of fun. All right, guys, follow chart guys to keep up with everything that's happening when he's not on this show. Of course, you could do that on YouTube and on X, of course, always appreciate, uh, your level headedness and your approach. It's really, really valuable here, man. So thank you for always showing up. Thanks, Scott. See you next time. All right, guys, I'll see you tomorrow for the Friday five.

Otherwise we are out of here. Thanks, Dan. Bye. Let's go.