The Wolf Of All Streets - VC Raises Spike! | Crypto Town Hall

Episode Date: October 7, 2024

Crypto Town Hall is a daily X Spaces hosted by Scott Melker, Ran Neuner & Mario Nawfal. Every day we discuss the latest news in crypto and bring the biggest names in the space to share their insight. ►►TRADING ALPHA READY TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS? THE BEST TRADERS IN CRYPTO ARE RELYING ON THESE INDICATORS TO MAKE TRADES. USE CODE ‘2MONTHSOFF’ WHEN VISITING MY LINK.  👉 https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker  ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEK DAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/    ►► OKX Sign up for an OKX Trading Account then deposit & trade to unlock mystery box rewards of up to $10,000!  👉  https://www.okx.com/join/SCOTTMELKER ►►NGRAVE This is the coldest hardware wallet in the world and the only one that I personally use. 👉https://www.ngrave.io/?sca_ref=4531319.pgXuTYJlYd ►►THE DAILY CLOSE BRAND NEW NEWSLETTER! INSTITUTIONAL GRADE INDICATORS AND DATA DELIVERED DIRECTLY TO YOUR INBOX, EVERY DAY AT THE DAILY CLOSE. TRADE LIKE THE BIG BOYS. 👉 https://www.thedailyclose.io/   ►►NORD VPN  GET EXCLUSIVE NORDVPN DEAL  - 40% DISCOUNT! IT’S RISK-FREE WITH NORD’S 30-DAY MONEY-BACK GUARANTEE. PROTECT YOUR PRIVACY! 👉 https://nordvpn.com/WolfOfAllStreets    Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://twitter.com/scottmelker   Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.io   Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe   Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c   #Bitcoin #Crypto #Trading The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor.  Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

Morning, everyone. Just working on getting all of our guests up on stage to get the show rolling. One of the bigger stories today, obviously, which is up here in the title, is that the UAE has ends taxes. For those who are not paying attention, the United Arab Emirates has exempt crypto transactions from the value added tax, the VAT. And interestingly, they're applying that retrospectively back to January 1st, 2018. So a very pragmatic approach, I think, from the UAE on how to handle transactions using crypto. And as the article here says, the change further legitimizes the virtual assets sector. I think just yet another small step in the process of crypto becoming mainstream

and very clearly just another delineation in the way that certain markets and jurisdictions are handling crypto. Obviously a lot more favorable than in the United States. Seems like we're having struggles getting everybody up here, but we'll go ahead and start now. Matt Siegel, how are you, man? It's been a while since we had you up here. What's up, brother? Doing okay.

Yeah. How are things over at VanEck? We just hit a 10-year high in our market share of US mutual fund and ETF issuers. So it's been a good year. And looking forward to the Bitcoin catch-up rally here in Q4. It's been a very notable divergence with gold. And many clients are asking, you know, we think that that divergence is because of, you know, specific large entities that were selling Bitcoin in July and August. And as those sales fade, there's going to be a catch up rally. But, you know, right now, you look at the market, there's not much volumes, there's not much leverage activity happening on the Bitcoin blockchain, new addresses, transaction fees are decidedly meh.

And I think most tellingly, the correlation with the S&P and the Nasdaq for Bitcoin is at two year highs on a daily basis. It's above 60 percent. So that needs to fall to get allocators excited. I happen to think that it will fall, but that is something that a lot of folks are watching. Another thing I just throw out there, Bitcoin miners are outperforming again month to date after outperforming in September. So let this sink in. A Democratic governor in Pennsylvania wants to fast track the restart of Three Mile Island. The Texas utility regulator is telling big tech companies that if they want to hook up to data centers, they better bring their own energy. And Wall Street is starting to pump out the research on this theme. So you got Cantor,

Morgan Stanley, Needham, Bernstein, all ramping up coverage of Bitcoin miners. They're starting to outperform huge valuation arbitrage. So pretty focused on the AI and data center story for Bitcoin miners. And then lastly, ETH, you know, we continue to watch the market share of fees very closely. And on a daily basis, we got an extreme capitulation in September with ETH share of blockchain fees hitting 9% on a daily basis. That's like a five year low. Activity bounced pretty substantially from there. And we wrote in our monthly published on Friday, that this disappointing price action is exactly what tends to catalyze a change in culture and a change in direction. And that's what we saw over the weekend with an EIP proposal endorsed by Justin Drake that will really represent the biggest change to Ethereum's

algorithm since the merge, if you consider the boost in transaction fees. So cautiously optimistic that that's a step in the right direction. Sorry for the download, but yes, what we were thinking about. I like it. And interestingly, you sort of alluded to the fact that we have low volumes, a bit of low interest. Your clients are asking about the lag on gold. I mean, aren't those given we're seven days into October now. So I think we all have the expectation, sarcasm that Bitcoin would boom in this seven day period. But doesn't that all actually align cyclically with where we should be throughout that six to eight months after the halving?

Yeah, I mean, I totally agree. And I've been adding to Bitcoin positions personally and adding to risk on down days in altcoin strategies. Because I think that Trump's odds are improving here, the numbers in the swing states are rising, his favorability numbers look much, much better among key demographics, other parts of the markets are starting to price that in. And I think crypto will as well as as if and as the trend, you know, becomes even more visible. Dave, we just had the gold Bitcoin conversation once again on Macro Monday earlier.

I don't know if you heard as you were coming up, but Matt, you said that a lot of their clients are actually asking why Bitcoin is lagging gold so much. So I know that that's red meat for you. Yeah, I was smiling as he was talking. That's the stuff I'm thinking of. Look, I mean, the rehash, the TLDR, you can watch our show if you want to get the long bit, but the TLDR is this. Gold has done a great job over its thousands of years of history of maintaining purchasing power parity. But what people who invest in gold are trying to do is maintain parity of gold as a store of value vis-a-vis financial assets. And that divergence has become extreme. And that's the breach into which Bitcoin will jump. And in a world where financialization is accelerating and not slowing down,

money supplies and governments are trying to outlaw recessions, one would think that there is enormous potential for Bitcoin to go up. The chart that James Lavish pulled up this morning, which I think is maybe the most important, is one that tracks Bitcoin on a log scale versus money supply. And if you look, in 17, it was crazy exuberance, right? If you got the same level of exuberance today, given what the money supply has done in the interim, Bitcoin would hit 400,000. Now, am I saying that's going to happen? No, but that's just what the chart says. So I think that that's really the thesis of what we talked about this morning. Florian, this is obviously somewhat your department as a precious metals and Bitcoin

analyst. What do you make of that sort of divergence? Well, look, I mean, I've been saying for, I think, eight years now that you want to own both. You want to have gold and Bitcoin. So I don't personally mind too much the divergence. I mean, I've seen the gold box getting completely frustrated while Bitcoin went to new all-time highs constantly. And now we're seeing vice versa, the Bitcoin guys getting frustrated because gold is so strong. I think they are uncorrelated. I think it makes sense to own both assets.

And yeah, now it's the time for gold and it will change again in the future. And I guess, let's say half a year from today, maybe we look in a totally different scenario where bitcoin is making the all-time highs and gold is in a correction i just want to throw out one data point um i know that the concept of de-dollarization has been somewhat politicized in the us but if you look at the latest data point u.s dollars as a share of foreign exchange reserves, it just hit another fresh 30-year low. So pretty clear that emerging markets are diversifying. They are specifically saying that they're doing it because of de-dollarization, especially

in emerging markets. So yeah, over time, we think Bitcoin is going to join in that. Over how much time, if you had to guess? I mean, we actually have one party literally talking about making a strategic reserve asset, right? And so, I mean, that would obviously, if our central bank added Bitcoin to the balance sheet or anything similar, I think that would force others to do so. You know, I don't know, right? We're using very long dated assumptions like 2050. But I did notice that Bukele went down to visit Argentina again for the second time, had another meeting with Malay. Unfortunately, El Salvador has not yet signed their IMF deal.

And there was a story on Friday that the IMF is still pushing back, asking them to tone down the scope of their Bitcoin legislation. So, you know, there's still considerably uncertainty. But if you look at the number of countries in the world that are mining Bitcoin with the support of the central government, that number of countries was four at the beginning of the year. Now it's seven. Ethiopia, Kenya have joined the list. Argentina has joined the list. So, you know, we think it'll continue. I don't know exactly when another country will add Bitcoin to reserves or make it legal tender, though. It will happen. I mean, I think it's somewhat inevitable, just a matter of time. And I think

interestingly, we talked a bit about the UAE ending taxes, but we do have some data that we're seeing new money coming somewhat into crypto. It's the other one in the title here, 823 million raised last month. Mario, this is your favorite topic. But funding roundup, crypto companies raised 823 million in September, 33 DeFi companies announced raises last month, data from the Thai terminal shows. So we're seeing a pretty big boom in funding, at least of crypto companies starting to happen again. Mario, are you able to hear now? Yeah, that's really fucking cool. Yeah, I can hear. I can hear. That's good news. How does

that compare to previous months? Big. I think it was kind of very, very low over the summer, which I think is somewhat expected, but I'm trying to dig in right now as you're asking me to that data. But it was a big month. I mean, that's a relatively big month, almost a billion dollars, obviously, flowing in a single month. On the flip side, now, the other narrative is that we have all the unlocks from future from things that were raised in the past, in huge numbers, you know, the billions starting now in October as well. So sort of maybe a battle there.

Nice. Yeah, I've just asked the team to change the title accordingly. Like have you – we should probably do a space with – I'll tell the team to get VCs on tomorrow. It's been a while. We haven't done like a state of the market discussion with other VCs. But have you – people you speak to, how's the sentiment? I'm talking about VCs. I don't know about vcs or otherwise i just think that there's still this expectation that things are going to skyrocket here in q4 and that that will trick trickle down

to everything but i think still there's a general bearishness about you know the f FTV high flow to the relationship and the unlocks and the discounts. So I figured there's still sort of a general negativity towards the pre-sale model, maybe, and the VC model, which is why to some degree people think memes have boomed so much. But listen, we all know that like that sentiment changes with one day of huge price action to the upside, right? Like one of these things doesn't cap really well. Yeah. So like, you know, I think it's fair to be bearish

when you have this many tokens unlocking and this much supply coming onto the market. But as you can see here, that's not stopping the quote unquote smart money from pouring in, right? Yeah, well, I count myself part of that smart money because we haven't stopped either, Dave. Yeah, I was just going to say that while a lot of us talk about, we think that Bitcoin will have a very strong fourth quarter.

People aren't putting their money where their mouth is on the speculative side. I think a lot of the people who already own or have said that, but I don't know. I don't think that we are in any close to the metrics of ramping bullishness. In fact, the fact that we saw $500 million in long liquidated last week is kind of relevant. And I think it's just, I used the analogy this morning, that people keep getting their noses smacked by a newspaper, they probably will stop doing it or slow down. So it feels to me like this kind of like any rally we get is more likely to be grinding, kind of climbing a wall of worry. And that is the kind of thing that that's perfect

from a venture point of view, because what do VCs want? They don't want overheated markets where every deal is at stupid prices. I mean, you know, the prices and any deals and look, we've had lots of conversations is not even close to where it was in 21. I mean, you know, so many people who raise money in 21 raised at valuations, which were insane. Well, insane is always a relative term, I guess, but they raised at valuations that were dramatically higher than the money that's coming back into the market. And I think that it's normal that money will come back in the market, but it'll be at valuations that matter, you know, in the single digits times revenue, as opposed to 40 times revenue sorts of things, you know, which is what we saw in 21. So it really

is, the money coming in is great. and it actually being done in reasonable valuations would also actually be great because it makes it a more sustainable path but that's the real question and we rarely talk about that so it would be great if you did do that space as mario because it'd be it would be interesting to hear the valuation metrics and the differences in approach yeah i'm actually trying to find some go ahead i'm trying to remember who it was it might might have been Tushar from Multicoin. There was an article last week with him effectively saying, and I think that's who it was, but him effectively saying that he still thinks the valuations are way overheated and there's still sort of a VC problem.

And that's coming from the VC that basically. Yeah, no, no. He spoke at Mainnet. I was actually sitting in the first row when he was talking and he did say that. But what he was saying was he said that a lot of valuations are, but there are deals to be done at reasonable valuations. Now it's a question of, you know, you have to find founders who are reasonable at the same time as have good ideas. He said that some ideas when they get hot, get chased, and they're just not going to chase that. And that's true as far as it goes. But yeah, it was actually a pretty good talk. Yeah, I found an article here in the block, the one I was referencing, but it's from October 1, obviously six days old, but crypto faces hangover from venture capital glut during

previous bull market multi coins to Sharjah. And this was kind of a quick take on the block, the crypto venture capital market hasn't fully adjusted to post-pandemic downturn realities. Overhyped valuations and stalled token prices reflect challenges across the crypto sector. And he maintains confidence in crypto's core principles despite the market's volatility. I mean, it's nothing groundbreaking there, but he's still talking about there being too much hype and excitement and too many things launching and, you know, and that's sort of similar to the cycles. So maybe it hasn't been invested yet, Mario. I think this is like a market structure issue that institutional investors can't get exposure to liquid tokens.

If you look at who owns the ETFs in Q2, hedge funds increase increase their holdings by 40%. Registered investment advisors only increase their holdings by 4%. So your kind of classic money manager who is less likely to buy venture can't really get liquid tokens, whereas your institutional investors who are reasonably bullish on the space, their only avenue to put client money to work is through venture. So venture valuations end up high relative to liquid tokens. Does anyone have any data? I'm trying to find it now. Does anyone have any data on how that $800 million compares to previous months?

So in September, yeah, I couldn't find it either. Dave, you're the data guy. Do you have any idea what the VC fund rounds were for previous months? Let's just see how this compares. No, actually, the best way – I know where I would go to look for it would be on the Sari terminal, but I'm not sitting where I can actually get to that now. So I'm sure somebody could. Maybe you can get Eric Turner. We'll probably check it out.

We'll do it tomorrow. But, yeah, that's um hopefully it's uh it's i see actually i'm finding an article just googling it coin telegraph in august there was 633 million which is it says it was a huge rebound so actually that's a pretty high number okay so oh so the 600 and something million in august they called it a huge rebound meaning 800 and something's way down so we've even a huge rebound, meaning 800 and something is even better. It's way down. So we've even improved from August, but 800 versus 600 is way different than 800 versus 100.

What happened to the whole narrative that you and Rand were telling me? Oh, VCs already deployed their capital. Now they're sitting tight until the bear market and invest for the next cycle. I didn't say they'd already deployed. I just said nothing was performing. Rand may have said that, though. I think that there's always money on the

sidelines for crypto. Another thing I was asking my team, I haven't looked at the reply I sent it last night, is the meme coins. My team hasn't been messaging me non-stop about meme coins. I'm not sure if that space has been slow as well. I know we don't have any meme coin guys on stage, but not sure if

anyone has the answer to that. Funny enough, Lloyd will probably be the first one to ask. There you go. any meme coin guys on stage but not sure if anyone has the answer to that funny enough lloyd will probably be the first one to ask there you go i mean i think i think things today just really picked up on some meme coins if i um i mean i don't watch all of them but some of them i have my eye on just doubled i mean i think a lot of um excitement's coming back even just today right like a lot of people are saying my the way i visualize it is like all these crypto twitter guys yelling uptober from the sidelines so i don't think they have the um i don't think they're as sure as they're acting and they're ready for a big um you know another plunge before

we go up again which may what may happen they may get it but i think a lot of people are sidelined and if we go right up and i know i've been saying this. I think that a lot of people are going to be surprised. And a lot of these diehard meme coin holders of the ones that will survive are going to be very happy. I think this the rest of this year. I would say like Mario, to your point about maybe how much money VCs have on the sidelines. I would imagine that your average crypto enthusiast does not have money left on the sidelines. Right. So, um, I don't, I don't know. I think, I think you might be right. I think people are more scared than, than you really like the people who are actually in it from another cycle are scared. And they, if they have any money left, they're keeping,

they're at least better now probably at holding some of that in stables. And like, I, I think people have powder. I don't think they're all in, but you never know. Yeah, I see Dan Crypto Trades put out a message saying, regardless of many alts, especially memes and AI, making big moves in the past few weeks

and they continue to talk about something else. So it seems that, again, I haven't been following the market too closely, especially with the recent trips. But it seems that, is October living up to its hype i know we just started the first week no nothing no but i mean if you take a last couple days made up for it no yeah i mean we're still down for october right i think october bitcoin was uh well it

went down on the first but it's about the same price it's 64 ish um but you know it might be cope but if you look at past October, generally, it's the back half of the month coming into November, December, where things start to blast off. But, you know, listen, it doesn't have to be exactly the same. It is nice right now that Bitcoin is trading back above 64,000. Right. I mean, last time we did a show last Friday, I think we were sitting around 60 or breaking below it. So, you know. We'll see. What would you say is the support what would you say is the support level now uh well it looks like it looks like 60 was

kind of a key area obviously on this move down i mean we got down as low as like 59.9 uh for those looking at technicals on the daily who care about moving averages it's the 50 ma on the daily was basically breached four times with wicks but all the closes for those four days were above. So that seems to be a key support level. And right here at around 63.5 is the 200 MA on the daily chart, which are a lot of algorithms. A lot of traders look at those sort of lines for at least regression to the mean on trade. So being above the 200 and the 50 would be nice if the day closes kind of above that level. Yeah. It's important to know that not only is what Scott said true,

that the same day that it went down to those wicks that he was describing was the largest amount of long liquidations that we've had since- Over 500 million. You know, since Aprilil there's only been one day that's worse and that day went down to 49 uh and so there's obviously a bid is this i mean it's not a bid it's it's lots of bids but i mean it's the the spot market is obviously bid uh on dips right now and that is and this is what i'm talking about bitcoin this is a this is non-trivial and and a lot of people are looking at that and so you know it's a double-edged sword right because it means people might be leaning on that meaning that they it might

actually not be there anymore and who knows but the truth of the matter is it feels like there's substantive support like real real support in the 50s and low 60s. And people are hoping to be able to buy another dip. And whenever that happens, that turns into FOMO at some point in the distant future when that obviously doesn't occur. So we'll see what happens. But the fact that you had such a quick recovery back to such a key level, i.e. middle of the trading range and above now we're in the upper quartile of the trading range we're almost there uh that's been here since april it's worth noting that because generally when you get those sorts of liquidations uh things go quiet afterwards and i can tell you that we've had we we you know i'm very well aware that institutions are

are actively repositioning portfolios right now at least the crypto native ones are there i saw one interesting chart last week um comparing the trading volumes of bitcoin versus the top 50 altcoins and there was a day last week where the volumes in the altcoins almost reached Bitcoin volumes. And if you go back to like 2019 and early 2020, there were a bunch of like false starts for that series where the altcoin volumes like basically matched Bitcoin volumes several times before finally breaking out post the election. So I think a lot of people are primed for that event.

And we're starting to see similar patterns as we did in 19 and 20. Does that mean that we're cycling up in your view, Matthew? I think so. You know, been buying here, as I said, I think the election is going to be an enormous catalyst either way. I think it's bigger for all coins if As I said, I think the election is going to be an enormous catalyst either way. I think it's bigger for altcoins if Trump wins. But I think the Bitcoin will still rally considerably once we have a winner. Yeah, I think Mark Cuban was making an argument

that he thinks, I think I heard in one of his interviews on All In podcast that he thinks crypto will do better under Kamala. And Kamala is a lot more pro-crypto than people make it out to be. I'd love to have him on the show. Talking about the elections as well after that event with Elon and Trump on stage in Butler. I'm not sure if you saw that, Scott, but the odds of Trump winning surpassed Kamala for the first time in a while on PolyMarket. And then on other betting platforms as well for the first time in a month as well so there's a reason for that pretty impressive like is there um it started off it

started off on the day it started off when the debate happened um so the when the debate with the vp debate and the strike but that only lasted a day so i'm gonna take that one out the debate in the crisis the uh the floods in in was it north? Yes, yes. Yes, so those two. Yes, yep. Good luck there as well. Probably won't have you on the floor. I think it's just mean reversion. I think it's just mean reversion, right? Her favorabilities jumped like 10 points right after

she was anointed for no reason. And now they're slowly drifting back down to where they were. I think people are not giving the VP debate enough credit. I think a lot of people that were on the sidelines, J.D. Vance's presentation really was very advantageous for Trump. And it positioned him really well, especially considering his style is always attacking and very abrupt and very aggressive. But J.D. Vance came a lot smoother. So I think that balanced it out. But the the event with elon i think got a bit of

traction as well um because that uh led to a spike instantly after the event but they're pretty much dead even on polygon and uh no actually trump's ahead now three percentage points i forgot and they're dead even on the i think it's called clear pole the average of multiple betting platforms excluding polymarket and they were pretty dead even there so that's the latest on that front but do you guys uh lloyd do you think meme coins will get a bit of a spike um come i assume they will but i'll get your thoughts as we get closer to um to the election we get poly polyphi or polyphi meme coins do well yeah i mean i don't know i think so i think some of them will for sure do well but so

many will pop up even the ones that do well will have 50 copycats to play the game of trying to catch one um and like you just have to be in the cabal that launches it really like i don't think that that's a good game to try to find the one that does well or like buy all the trump coins or whatever but to answer your question yes i think some will do well. They will be short-lived. I think the better thing to do is sort of accumulate the ones you believe in with the communities that are going to be around for a while, sort of visualize what might be there in a year and accumulate those ones, as opposed to sort of jumping on the short-lived, you know,

political ones that you are very unlikely to catch one. Because then, you know, once you find success, you find it's pretty difficult because if you actually do make some money, it's hard to take it out. And, you know, it's a tough game if you're not built for it. I don't reckon, as far as meme coins go, I don't think trying to catch the, you know, the trendy one is a good call. I think accumulating the ones you believe in is a better one yeah talking about meme coins by the way i was just looking at the various sectors in crypto that did well over the last seven days unfortunately my darling gaming just getting pummeled right now

ai not doing that well either and meme coins relative to the others solana equals rwas are doing well something rwas are the best performing right now r RWAs and Deepin, I think it's Deepin, let me check. Yeah, RWAs and let me see. RWAs are doing okay relative to meme coins, sorry, relative to gaming and AI. And yeah, number one is memes. Memes are still outperforming everything else. So I know that Ryan was on stage

talking about the end of meme coins a couple of months ago. It could be right, end of the meme coin cycle. But so far, it's still outperforming other asset classes um and nfts i guess are still dead lawyered yeah i haven't even looked at them in age in ages let me see my punk what it's worth i mean like i don't know those it's the same i see that as the same as the meme coins right like things like with good communities will not but they have no they have no volume though they have no interest me because no no it's not yeah it's maybe maybe it's a time to accumulate the ones you like i don't think it's happening and another question i have dave matthew is there no one caring about geopolitical news anymore i remember a while ago especially

when that um where the yen carry trade uh fear came, everyone was talking about the Iranian attack, the Iranian attack, and that playing a key role on crypto. Because I think everyone wants to blame any movements on what's happening around the world. Now that crypto is relatively steady and pretty boring, no one's blaming it on anything.

And we're seeing obviously mayhem in the Middle East, all lines being crossed. Is there any stage where that starts having an impact on the markets and that becomes a black swan event that changes things for us, Dave or Matthew? I mean, from my perspective, sorry, Matthew, why don't you go ahead first? I was just going to say that I'll just highlight again that the daily correlation Bitcoin-NASDAQ is 63% right now.

It's the highest since late 2022. It's a reason for allocators not to add to Bitcoin. And you saw that with the Iran headlines last week, Bitcoin and gold moved in exact opposite directions. So there just needs to be some new buyer, right? And hopefully we know who we can figure out who that new buyer is. And it's not MicroStrategy again, right? Maybe it's Michael Dell, maybe it's some country. But that information is going to have to, I think, come out in order to change the correlation, bring it back down and ignite this next move. All I was going to say is that Bitcoin and crypto in particular care much more about liquidity than they care about anything else, except, you know, obviously, if there's a mass sell off, you know, correlations go way up. And, you know, the more geopolitical

tension there is, the more liquidity is getting pumped in, you know, that tends to be offsetting the fears that, you know, there could be an oil shock or something like that. And, you know, the worst big geopolitical problems could be things that you know where we escalate to a nuclear war where it's like does this ever does any of this matter and the answer is people tend to look at that and say well i can't do anything about it so i'm not going to worry about it because it's not a question of investing that way but so so net mario i think that if there was something that happened that did impact the world oil supply or world commerce, yeah, people would take notice of that. But the risk of that, it's sort of like people are kind of getting, I don't want to use the word numb, but I will say that it seems to be much more until it gets bad, will this increase liquidity?

And if the answer is yes, then people are like, okay, well, we know, we got that and that's kind of offsetting the risks on the other side. Scott, any last thoughts on this? No, I think actually it was one of those days where we somewhat covered what was out there to cover. I mean, it's nice to see Bitcoin at 64,000, just kind of lost it. So will there be no, last question before we end it, last question I have, will there be nothing last question before we end it? Last question I have, will there be no,

nothing exciting until the, um, until we break all time highs again, that's all that matters right now. Uh, I think, uh, you know,

it would be, people are going to get extremely bullish if we start touching 70, you know, even ahead of the all time high. And I think that that's rational. Um, and you know, if all coins really start to move even if bitcoin remains sideways i think that would probably be a catalyst for a

hell of a lot of excitement and new liquidity to come in um so i think that there are definitely things that can happen without bitcoin itself making a new all-time high in fact as i'm speaking i think you know bitcoin sitting in the high 60s while altcoins pull two Xs would be probably as bullish or poorer than even Bitcoin attacking an all-time high. Because I think most of the market participants are still waiting for the fight, sort of altcoin cycle to kick in.

And that's where they're probably more exposed. All right. Well, I'm waiting for that, for those VC-backed projects to finally get the love they deserve. Because I know they were getting overhyped in previous cycles earlier this year, but they're just getting destroyed right now.

It's just a shame to see. It's almost impossible to see a project do more than two, three X at launch, and that's before all the unlocks. So it's been pretty brutal for these projects. Mario, what do you think of the ones that you and I have probably been waiting for for years? There's ones that are hyped that are supposed to tge you know last cycle like supra um do you

think any of those are going to come down the pipeline and blow minds or is it just i don't know we had um partizia launched after like 20 years and they did pretty well um i'm not sure if you invested in that one yeah i was in that one yeah portal defy is another for example that's getting a lot of hype i think all of them everyone, everyone, my team told me, Mario, all the projects are just waiting for October to launch. So I think October will be a pretty busy day for them. So it's going to be pretty crowded. But I think that also depends on the market. So they were planning to launch in October.

But there's just such a glut of projects that are just waiting to launch. I think when the market improves, it's going to flood the market. Everyone gets surprised when those 10, 20 projects launch a day. That's because these 10, 20 projects have been delaying for 6, 12 months. Right. They're all going to try to go at once and it begs the question, who's going to buy it? But that's the conversation we've had and I guess we'll just see

at this point. Cool. On that point, I think we'll wrap it up. We'll do tomorrow. On Wednesday, we're going to do the state of the VC market. Tomorrow, we'll do whatever news comes up. How's the hurricane looking so pretty bad is it hasn't eased up yeah no it hasn't eased up it's actually already hit a category four out in the gulf which is insane went from effectively tropical storm to i think cat three low four in 24 hours so now it's just a matter of the path i I think. I mean, you know, I live a bit inland personally.

Funny, we almost moved to Tampa actually this year. We had a house under contract and that house is completely flooded and is about to get double flooded. So we kind of dodged the bullet there. Well, hold on. You faced the greatest, I just looked it up, you faced the greatest hurricane threat in more than 100 years? Yeah. looked it up for you face this greatest hurricane threat in more than a hundred years yeah i mean that for for the amount of first of all i've never seen a hurricane that like starts in mexico and goes due east and hits florida usually they come up through the gulf so it's kind of like crazy and this is happening you know two weeks after helene and the tampa bay area with hurricane helene

didn't even get a hit at all like there was very little rain the wind wasn't even that bad what it was was the storm surge of the storm just passing through the Gulf. And I can tell you anecdotally, like we know, you know, I have 50 friends who live on the water in Tampa Bay somewhere, and all of them had a massive issue. And now all of those houses, especially anyone who like had a first floor, I mean, the water from the bay literally went miles in. I have a friend whose garage flooded two miles from the bay. It's insane insane it is how much water came up out of the bay now this is a direct hit coming right at that area and all those people like everything that was destroyed in their houses is still sitting in the front lawn like drying and waiting for someone to

come haul away and that stuff's just going to be flying around in the direct hit and be there's just no way that like the state or that area can sustain this it's going to be really probably really really bad unfortunately everyone's already evacuating they're coming here and we're like not even and we're directly in the path of the hurricane ourselves so yeah i just saw pop-up as well i'm looking at fox weather channel and it had a pop-up saying it could reach a hurricane category five uh before reaching land um so they came in earlier as well i'm looking at fox weather channel and it had a pop-up saying it could reach a hurricane category five before reaching land um so that came in earlier as well and yeah it's face it could end up being one of the worst ones so that's just a prediction one of the worst ones in over 100 years that's a lot worse than i expected i was making fun of you yesterday so being a pussy i didn't really say that but still it's a lot worse than i expected yeah i

mean it looks really really bad and you know anyone who's been on the west coast of florida we've had a few now the gulf has been just smacked every year i mean there's complete towns that effectively been washed away you know inaccessible it's just you know i think there's so much news in the news cycle these days obviously that gets gets buried but i mean these things are really really really wreaking havoc you know very when when is it expected to to reach you like uh i think we'll start to get rain in the middle of the night on tuesday and then really throughout the day on wednesday and into wednesday night will be uh the worst of it shit well do you have starlink by the way do you have what uh starlink

no i don't i wish i did at this moment but um generally as long as the uh you know our internet is underground in theory and i have a generator enough to power certain things in the house including my internet so generally as long as it doesn't get cut off outside the house it stays on in my house but we'll see no all right man well we'll foster with you we'll probably chat with you tomorrow and then i'll be here tomorrow for sure yeah yeah cool man all right well for everyone else we'll wednesday we're doing the state of the vc market so probably while scott is in the hurricane and the team just told me it'll be wednesday not tomorrow um anyway we'll see you all tomorrow thanks a lot and uh talk to you soon