The Wolf Of All Streets - Waiting To Buy The Bitcoin Dip? Good Luck! l Alex Krüger

Episode Date: November 9, 2023

Crypto twitter and fintwit favorite Alex Krüger joins to discuss the macro picture, the newly anointed bull market and why you may not get the dip you are waiting for.

Yesterday, I asked today's guest, Alex Kruger, what we should talk about on today's show. And he simply said, for people who are waiting to buy the dip, good luck. And if you're waiting to buy the Bitcoin dip, especially as we were doing that yesterday, you've seen that it just keeps grinding up. When Bitcoin goes into a bull market, you rarely get that exact dip that you want to buy. And that seems to be the case right now. I'm going to discuss that and much more with one of your favorite guests, Alex Kruger. And of course, Dan from the chart guys on the back half, who I'm sure is also intently looking at these charts right now. You guys don't want to miss this one. It's going to be awesome. Let's go. What is up, everybody? I'm Scott Melker, also known as the Wolf of All Streets.

Before we get started, please subscribe to the channel and hit that like button. Now, on Mondays, we are super bearish. We have obviously James Lavish and Mike McGloom, excuse me, Mike McGloan, Dave Weisberger talking about the Great Depression that is yet to come. Not saying that it won't necessarily happen, but we also have some people who are willing to go out on a limb and say, we're in a bull market. And I can actually recall not that long ago, I think Alex Kruger came on a macro Monday with that group and basically argued the bullish point and has been proving quite right for quite a long time since that happened. I'm going to go ahead and bring on Alex right now. How are you, man?

Morning, everyone. I'm good. You? I'm hard to be too upset when the market is moving like this, right? Has anything here surprised you as of yet? Sitting here, 37, I haven't even looked right now, $37,216 Bitcoin. Actually, no. I mean, no, no, no. This is playing on as i thought it would uh

the only thing actually surprised surprised me a bit is is if uh lagging this much i thought by now would be it would be bottoming but but that aside uh uh no i'm gonna say actually something else which is my, you know, we may be fine, but a very large number of people in crypto are not because they are not long, they're severely underexposed. So there's a lot of people out there that are not actually having a good time right now. But that, right, that's what happens in these markets. I mean, that's literally why you came up with the title, right?

Waiting to buy the Bitcoin dip, good luck. So there's a few reasons that would happen. A, disbelief, right? The same thing that ends up driving these markets that keeps prices going up. They didn't believe it at any point. Now they're waiting for the dip. Eventually, they continue to buy higher prices go up. But I think there's another kind of sadder story to what you just talked about. I think there's a lot of people actually who would want to be long and just haven't gotten their money back from an FTX or a Celsius or a BlockFi or something like that, who literally got washed out at the bottom of the market, not because the value went down, but because they literally lost their money. So there's a lot of people that would want to be long right now and are still just waiting for the capital to do so. You know, I would argue the opposite right now. It's this move, basically, with Solit47

means that quite likely every FTX credit or at least FTX, right? They're going to get all their money back and they're going to get a dollar on the sand. So this is really, really good for them and for crypto in general. Oh, I agree with that. I'm just saying they can't buy right now. A lot of those people who have, we're talking about the large hedge funds institutions that were actually trading

on FTX, who would have been buying $20,000 Bitcoin, $25,000 Bitcoin. They'll finally get their money back when it's 50,000. And they will get more money back, but they won't be holding the actual crypto assets. But I agree with you. Yeah, it looks good for them with Anthropic and Solana and all these assets blasting off. It was people like me who are Voyager creditors who got fucked because Voyager liquidated at the bottom of the market. Yeah. Well, the good thing for them is that they can't take profits right now. So, yeah, like the Mt. Gox people, like Bitcoin's only gone up.

So even though you're getting a fraction back, the higher it goes, the better it is. So listen, but you've been I can't remember the last time I spoke to you where you were particularly bearish. You know, I think that since really the lows of everything you've kind of sustained your bullish outlook why is that and what would change it it's uh basically the the point is usually markets bottom very very very fast that's just the way markets are so by the time everybody starts speaking about it it's you're usually late. So it's we can go look through, look back through history and every single one no exceptions, actually, every single big move down every single big crisis, the market usually adjust between like one

to three months. That's what happened last time we adjusted basically was a little bit longer. I mean, the move, the 2022 move started in in January January with the FOMC. Actually, it was the FOMC minutes in mid-January. But basically, June 10th to June 22nd, we bottomed. It's been, that's basically, it's like by the time everybody's speaking about it, you are too late. Yeah, that was sort of, right. We obviously bottom bottomed last year as you talked about had fomc i can just pull up a chart like kind of back here where we really really bottomed and broke out and

then to me the end of the quote-unquote bear market if you were doing it technically it was exactly where you just said sort of this march and then the bottoming back to 25,000. And now it's the last time. We were at 37. We just hit 37,700 while we've been talking. And for me, this has always been the major target is this area kind of between 37,500 and 40,000. You look over here, that was where we really dropped off. So now I think it starts to get a lot more interesting actually. But this is a lot of the people who are even bullish now are kind of starting to hit the target so you think we actually do maybe get a dip uh for people to buy um no i don't think so um i i think we may see like like right now it's uh let's put it this way uh uh sub 30 to see sub 30 which is a lot of people what we're looking for, we actually need an ETF denial. So if we see sub 30, you actually you do not want to long that because it means we were getting no ETF and we're getting

no ETF probability looks like sub sub 10% of this happening, like say, you know, five to 10%. But if that happens, we are going to be with what what the way markets usually work is they reverse the entire move and they overshoot. That's just the way it works. So if we get a denial, it would make sense for Bitcoin to drop down to say 22 to 24. So if we see sub 30 means something is very, very, very wrong and you don't want to be long in that yeah i totally agree with that assessment i would even say 31 ish but yeah 30. uh yeah looking at the chart i'd say that uh you know for me a correction that that could make

sense at some point is uh uh somewhere on like no more than upper 32s maybe that right mid 30 mid 32 is the best um and i'd be actually very very surprised to see that and it's like i don't want to get into futurology but yeah it may happen but in the short time i'm not even thinking about it we are reaching the first point for basically profit-taking, which is 38K in my book. The thing with these moves is you only want to really take profit if you are long enough. Because it keeps on running, you know? And good luck with that.

But yeah, not even specifically to Bitcoin though. So we have the ETF news, which I think has been driving this Bitcoin rally, which has been disproportionately large to other markets, but everything else has been going up as well. And when I said to you, hey, should I make the title waiting to buy the Bitcoin dip? You said just waiting to buy the dip. It applies to stocks, it applies to bonds, it applies to metals, it applies to Bitcoin, it applies to everything, right? So this isn't just, even though we do have sort of this ETF narrative happening in Bitcoin, you're still bullish everything. I am. Where I see we just bottomed last week, early last week, but on bonds, then equities. Basically, we had the key events that basically shaped up where we are right now. I saw a Bitcoin is we have basically the Treasury funding and the Treasury basically reducing the supply.

They're doing a different tranches on the long end of the curve. That basically, how to put it, that fully reversed the trend on bonds. So I'm very confident the bottom in bonds is in. Yeah. By the way, people have asked me, but TLT, which I was buying around 83, 84 is my biggest position outside of crypto right now. tl that's amazing i i i agree with you and there's something else on tlt that people often forgets about it's not just a it's not just another etf has has carry right so you're getting a 5x percent uh coupon paid uh on a bi-annual basis so um you even the TLT can continue dropping. I mean, bonds can continue.

Yields can continue higher quite a bit more, and you're still going to break even. Even like, you know, excuse my French, but even if shit hits the fund, you'll still break even. And if real shit hits the fund, what happens is you have a major safe haven bid on bonds, basically, and it's a good bet still.

Yeah, I mean, for me, this is something you accumulate. Yeah, I was going to say, for me, TLT here was insane, irrational selling at the end. It looked like capitulation, historically high volume. And I know, you know, I talked to Gareth Soloway a lot. He's day trading this. I'm,

this is a TLT position I'm looking to hold for a very, very long time and add to, as you said, I just think this is like one of those, you know, this is one of those massive positions. And if we're even close to a yield top, I would just be able to ride for a very long time. So that was my bet as well that you just described. But so listen, if yields are topping, I mean, do you think that there's going to be a dip in anything? Do you think there's bear markets over? I mean, you know, we come on here, as I said, on Mondays, and McGlone points out very legitimate fundamental cracks in the actual economy, forget the market, and thinks we're going into another Great Depression. Is it just, I mean, is it just i mean is it just irrational at this point that's the thing that's um like we've discussed with mike live in

your show uh a couple of times and yeah i don't know in the last uh um year right and uh the thing is economy is actually what what he's relaying or or that point of view, not to name someone, that point of view which is quite widespread, is being very widespread and very widespread from basically analysts, traders, portfolio managers, these real concerns about the economy that sadly for them, it's actually in a way they're right. That makes it even more difficult to basically take a step aside and, and a focus on the chart and then then be focused on actually what's priced in and, and we literally priced in the worst of the worst since mid last year. That's that's the point and the economy is not that bad. Actually, the economy even even was extremely strong in q3. And the concern

actually for for me, it's been actually not the economy doing that poorly, but the economy actually overheating into Q4 and basically driving the Fed to actually not just give us another hike, but give us another like, you know, four hikes. That was my concern. But that being said, this is very interesting. We're entering what many people in markets call Goldilocks, which economy is basically called the soft landing, right? We have an economy that remains strong, a U.S. economy, yet is definitely cooling, which is what we want to see.

And yeah, commercial real estate could completely collapse, but not too much because there is a lot of money out there and there is a lot of people who want to buy the deep and everything, including commercial real estate. Like if you're a distressed guy, actually, you right now, you want to be looking at commercial real estate. If you're not a distressed guy, you're looking at equity beta, you're looking at tech stocks, so you're not a distressed guy you're looking at uh at uh equity beta you're looking at tech stocks so you're looking at uh i know there are so many things to buy right now that look attractive in the us uh you look abroad you look at the state of europe but europe is a mess and you look at china and well china is not a place i would like to to invest myself um um yeah yeah i mean where else are you gonna to put money except the US? I even,

you hear now people talking about the destruction of San Francisco real estate as the greatest example of all this downtrend in commercial real estate. People are starting to buy for effectively pennies on the dollar already. Right. So to your point, all the people I know who made the most money in the great recession, just people people I know who made the most money in the great recession, just people I personally know, are all the ones who invested in real estate or had some sort of real estate scheme in Miami between 2008 and 2012. Oh, yeah. Yeah. I wish it was one of those. Yeah. I have friends that were buying real real estate in 08. Yeah. And like they made insane money with all these tricks I had never heard of,

or just by simply buying something and being up twice as much in two years. So I'm tending to agree with you. It's very hard intellectually for me to think that the Fed has done a good job. I mean, do you think that we really just get this full on soft landing? We move on and everything's fine? I mean, jobs you think that we really just get this full on soft landing? We move on and everything's fine. I mean, jobs came in today. I think it was 217 versus 218 expected. Complete nothing burger.

No reason to believe that things are broken. By any metric, the economy is actually pretty strong and overheated, as you said. Yeah. That's an interesting point because actually the Fed has been right on, extremely right on since they flipped, right? But they were horribly wrong before. So it's kind of like hard to horribly. I mean, the whole mess we're in right now is their fault. 100% or 99%. Yeah, I mean, I guess we can give them COVID as the other 1%

for why they irrationally acted, but I agree. So what do you make then of the altcoin market right now? You talked about how ETH has surprisingly underperformed. I think, obviously, Bitcoin dominance is still very high, but there are some select coins outside of ETH and the rest of the altcoin market that have just pulled absolutely monster moves. Obviously, Solana, LINK, NEAR, Injective. There's a lot of coins that are smashing Bitcoin right now, which is rare to see when Bitcoin dominance has gone this high. Why do you think that is? It's market being underexposed. That's it. I mean, I like Sol, I like WorldCoin, I like Link, I like Ton. There's quite a few I like. To be honest,

I wish I had more. Yeah. Can you tell me about Ton? By the way, you just mentioned it. I literally had never really heard of it. I saw it all over Twitter. I looked at the chart this morning. I put it in my newsletter, which I never do. I was like, I don't even know what this thing is, but it looks like it's ready to go into price discovery. So I only like it above that kind of all time high. But this is not something I'd ever looked at. You just mentioned it and said you like it. So, yeah, the thing about Tony is that it's been very interesting and completely off the radar of crypto Twitter and crypto people in general.

It's a massive coin. The backing is not directly linked anymore with Telegram, but it has the backing of Telegram. They're working together. And they have an integrated wallet on Telegram. And it's just something that that makes sense uh i got into it basically in uh june um june july um and uh was just by talking to people right it it just came to my radar by by by you know going around and talking to people and uh um i don't follow it that much i have a position i follow the chart more than anything.

As you know, we have sometimes information overload, so we need to filter out what we read and what we don't. But it's one of my coins. But do you think that ETH is underperforming now? My feeling is that ETH is going to rage. It just hasn't yet, personally. But I'm seeing a lot of people say that Solana will be the narrative of this cycle or other layer ones, and we had the ETH cycle last time. I mean, do you think that these coins are somewhat replacing the ETH

narrative? Or do you think that yet again, we're just sort of panicking because it hasn't happened yet? I think ETH, I wonder how you see this. For me, ETH, the thing is it's been trading and the way we mostly manage ETH is our ETH exposure. This is a Bitcoin alternative. It's not an R alternative. It's not a sole alternative. It's not a sole competitor. It's on its own category in between ALT and Bitcoin. And it's more of a Bitcoin play than it's a large cap, right? So it's the market's been waiting basically for the ETF news to turn it around and then rage. But what I said was what I was surprising is actually underperformances makes sense. But this level of underperformance, that surprised me.

And I basically thought, when was it? Two weeks ago? The 23rd, actually, I thought that it bottomed on the 23rd. I may still be right there, but it looks like I'm going to be wrong. Yeah, I'll give you the flip argument because I'm pretty bullish on it kind of in this area. This is on the ETH Bitcoin pair. It's only been oversold four times. It's there.

It's now forming bullish divergence there for anyone who likes that. And I think it's just consolidating here. And then you look at the USD pair, and even though it's underperforming, you still have higher lows consolidating into a flat top here. I think once it blasts through, if it can push through, even if it's lagging massively, if it can push through that kind of 2000 area, I think the interest comes back. Also, we just have like, it feels like we have that irrational Ethereum's dead. The merge failed.

Why didn't we see the moves? I just think the narrative has turned against it so massively. It reminds me of Tesla at 180 or Bitcoin at 4000. It just feels that way. On one hand, I agree. On the other, I think that ETH, I mean, the market's been telling us that ETH is overwhelmed among crypto natives. That's the thing. But I completely agree. The chart is an absolute beauty. And I mean mean it would make it makes sense so i would it does make sense that as soon as etf goes through attention shifts to the next

etf which is going to be eath it is if it's not it's not soul it's not helium you know it's not curve it's eath so you know it it does make sense for it to really, really catch a fire soon. So, yeah. Yeah, I agree. I mean, is there anything else that you're specifically looking at? I mean, at all, literally in any market at this point. But, you know, I like the idea of Goldilocks, but the idea of Goldilocks generally means that you exit that zone at some point, right? I mean, this really has been a, you know, lightning in a bottle right now.

Can't last forever. Yeah. Actually, I think we're running into year end. It has Lex. Like, I'm not looking. I'm looking to take, like, we're reaching my first level, which is 38 on Bitcoin. Why 38? Because it's basically it's

the luna level yes you pointed out the chart right it's that's where we broke down and hell broke loose is 38 so basically the way the way uh uh charts work and trading works is we have like kind of like an air pocket uh in between 38 and and 30 right so get in there, the next one is 42. That being said, it's like right now I have absolutely zero interest in hedging. Basically taking minimal profits. It's remaining like long at all times, about 100%. And what I'm like, it's kind of like, well, it's I don't want to have to put it be arrogant here or I can't find the right word.

But like what I'm really looking for, like if it keeps on going up, I'll be very happy. And if we get a flash, what I'm looking to do on a flash is basically reshuffle Bitcoin and ETH into altcoins, basically. Yeah. When I get more exposure. So you're looking for more exposure to altcoins here. You think that Bitcoin dominance is somewhat topping here. By the way, I also tend to agree with that. So we're in line.

But something just feels different right now. Even at this part of the four-year cycle, you never really generally see this kind of strength. I think that we're getting real adoption here and real new money flowing in. And listen, we went from 15 to 20, 20 to 25, 25 to 31. Altcoins did jack shit, right? It took really getting to 35 to give that confidence that, holy crap, like this is a real market. It feels like there's a lot of new money and this isn't just completely the old like alt to Bitcoin washing machine we just talked about.

I think we can see that on the CME futures, basically. That's new money. That's not crypto money, right? And if you look at the CME futures at the open interest on them, it's been ramping up very, very considerably in the last few weeks. That's new money. Yeah, I've got the chart. Now, something I like to add is I don't think we are seeing yet retail here. It's not. It's new smart money. Retail is not here yet. New retail.

I mean, there's a lot of retail, right? But the point is, like, when we talk about retail this year, we're talking about new money, new retail money, new dump money. You know, the Dodge Cup buyers, you know, the guy who wants to buy Pepe at the top. Those guys are not yet in. They're not even close. I just, I've been tweeting about it all morning. I said, I haven't gotten a single call from like an old friend. My parents haven't congratulated me on the way down. Literally like Bitcoin was at like 42 on the way down from 69. And people were calling

me to console me. Are you okay? Is it going to be all right? Can you still afford your mortgage? And that was before we even got below 40. We're at 35, 38 now on the way up. And I haven't gotten a, hey, congratulations. Hey, should I start thinking about Bitcoin now? It's very, very, very early. And to your point, you can look right here. And this is from Coinglass. This is open interest on futures. Binance, 117 Bitcoin, obviously. CME is right behind now. CME is going to pass Bitcoin on futures volume. I mean, Binance, that is insane. I don't think people realize how crazy it is that CME, which is only institutions, you

can't just, you know, unless you're going through a investment advisor or you have a fund, you can't just go buy futures contracts on CME as a normie regular person. And that's about to smash through Binance as the highest open interest. That tells you who's buying, right? Yep.

Yeah. Crazy, crazy metric. Well, Alex- Something I just want to add there, just on CME futures. That is very interesting. It's if you look at the basis there, it's the what you're looking at is, is that the basis is actually quite it's it's it's not cool. It's a hot market. Like, for example, basis around six percent annualized on bitcoin futures for me would be uh that's kind of like a like an okay market by now we're at ten percent uh uh depending on the exchange we're looking at uh ten and a half percent to eleven and a half percent annualized so

it's hot once we get into like meetings is is very hot that that being said it makes sense for the market to be this hot when we have such big news coming up that's basically we and TradFi front running what we think is mostly inevitable right can you remember a time when you could when retail could front run TradFi on this level like this is the first time I can remember that like you can really get ahead of institutions if we get an approval in any market um yeah well i i would say actually it's happened a few times on on like like you know we had the same on 2017 right it's uh uh cme futures you know run up to 10 10k to 220. um. Well, awesome, man. Thank you.

I always love having you on your perspective. I mean, frankly, you don't need to brag. You've been right. Right? And I think if it ain't broke, don't try to fix it. I tend to agree with you that right now, if you get the dip, which you may be waiting to buy, I think you buy all dips on basically everything

for the moment until proven otherwise. Really quick, before I let you go, what would change your opinion? I know the level below 30 for Bitcoin. Is there anything in other markets that would be your big flashing red sign that it's time to switch bias? It'd take a couple of, or one actually, if it's extremely hot on payrolls, if payrolls comes wildly hot, that basically it's, you know, you change your bias about for, you know, one to two weeks,

no more. I would. Okay. So still nothing. That's still a couple of weeks for a dip. Yeah. It's a short-term thing. If we get two readings in a row, even two in a row, that would be pretty bad. I don't see it happening. And the same with inflation. It's not enough one reading. We need a couple. We need two, three. We need, like, for example, Powell on the FOMC.

If he eats really hawkish next time he speaks, like it happened in the past for MC, he was very hawkish. Not the past one, the one before. He got into the Q&A at the end and he got a few questions and basically he went all out. That it's a reason to change bias. On Bitcoin, I need to see basically the futures market hitting up even more. And one last thing I wanted to add there. This is very interesting.

Most of the heat this time is not on perps on Bitcoin. It's on futures. It's the first time we see this. Actually, the perps are not really hot. It's like the funding is kind of flat. It's crazy. Perfect, man. Well, thank you so much for your perspective.

Going to go bring up dan in a minute uh always a pleasure guys follow kruger macro uh one of my favorite obvious guests but also accounts to follow uh always great information and uh generally right which is helpful uh thank you so much alex man i appreciate you coming on thank you scott thanks everyone bye bye speak soon all right guys. That was awesome. I want to point something out. Since I was talking about, obviously, the normies not being here yet, and we haven't been getting the phone calls and all those things, something that I looked at this morning, I was on Twitter Spaces arguing the case for Bitcoin against a bunch of

tradified dues. And I wanted to point something out. I brought up this dollar cost averaging calculator. By the way, this ends on October 31st, so you're even way more up. If you started buying Bitcoin November 21 weekly, $100, so literally at the deadest top at $69,000, and you bought $100 a week, starting at the dead top, as of October 31st, you had spent 10 grand and your value was 13,431, up 34% on dollar cost averaging from the dead top. So listen, we talk about trading here a lot. We talk about all these ways to make money. The easiest and surest way to make money is literally just keep buying Bitcoin slowly. Because if you look at any chart of Bitcoin, right? I mean, here's the weekly chart. Look how little time it actually spends near those highs and how much more

time it spends basing where you get that chance to passively accumulate before the next run. It's really incredible when you look at it, but the proof is in the pudding, man. You've spent 10 grand, you've got 13. That's probably 15 or 16 right now, by the way, because at the end of October, we certainly weren't pushing 38,000. Going to go ahead and bring on Dan right now. Wow, man. I think you and I, I thought we were topping there for a little while on a lot of things and we haven't. Yeah. Yeah. No, me too. For me, it was a couple of days ago, like Two days ago, I thought alts were going to top into some daily consolidation. And the information was just, nope, you're wrong, not yet. And really, obviously, Bitcoin is the gauge. We had just the $34,000 support. And the mindset is, if Bitcoin's holding 34, there's not much to worry about. There were

some signs saying, all right, we might be heading towards a break at 34. But in end nope it holds and another leg up yeah it's funny we just don't get the dip right you would expect uh if if you don't know bitcoin and you're just no technical analysis you would expect we would have seen kind of a really clean opportunity to buy back at 31 right something like that i mean we get this instead right you get the classic bitcoin which is it breaks through and then it gives you like an ascending channel, which I have here, you know, and people go, oh my God, it's bearish. It's an ascending pattern. And nope, it's just a bunch of higher highs and higher lows as it consolidates up and breaks up. If you've ever been here for a Bitcoin bull market, you know that ascending wedges and ascending channels are not bearish for Bitcoin on the way up. So you

would have thought that, hey, we'd get this dip back down here. Everybody could rebuy at 31,000, 31.8, and then it just keeps on going. It's pretty crazy. Yeah. As you mentioned, that is one of the characteristics of a crypto bull market is rising wedges breaking bullish, which are normally a bearish pattern. And the key for those patterns, I love wedges, but it's got to align with the most likely scenario on a longer term timeframe. Like if we're chugging up towards a weekly resistance and a weekly lower high is most likely, you start looking for a daily rising wedge to help shape that up. But with where we stand on Bitcoin, we're in a monthly, weekly, daily uptrend. And so we don't have that scenario where a lower high is the most likely scenario versus something nearby. So that rising wedge is a lot less probable. Yeah. What are you

looking at? Can you bring up your charts? I'd love to see what you're looking at right now. Sure thing. So yeah, I mean, it's still 34,000 for me where Bitcoin is, that's the level that must hold. And it was just grinding support there for a while. And so we're just waiting for a new level, essentially. Give us a new, ideally 36, previous resistance. If we can turn 36 now into the level that is our benchmark. And if you are a trader that is looking to lock in profit and not sit through the next weekly consolidation, because again, we look at the weekly chart and we remind ourselves, okay, we know we're going to see weekly consolidation eventually. We know we're going to look for a weekly higher low to be the result of that consolidation. If I don't want to

sit through the potential 10% to 15% drop during weekly consolidation, I'm just walking my stop loss up. And so if your stop's at 34, you're waiting for the new level now. Give me something else that I can put my stop under and I'll be watching for the next 12 hour higher low, which will probably get some time heading into the weekend. And again, ideally holding 36 for a 12 hour higher low, move a stop loss up under that level to try and keep riding this momentum. Yeah, I think that's what is always interesting in these bull markets. I don't know how to articulate, but is that we keep getting, without the retest, we keep getting a

higher level for people to expect, right? If you were expecting 30, you never got it. So then you're like, oh, I'll get 31, never got it. Oh, I'll get 34, never got it, right? And then those other levels that you are still bidding have been pretty much left in the rear view. And you're still hoping they're going to happen. And they just don't. I'm not... Guys, by the way, I'm not saying there won't be dips. I actually think at some point, we'll see a massive correction here. But I just can't see why it would be right now yet. I mean, this is pretty crazy price action. We're definitely hitting FOMO. I did get my first text last night from a friend. And it was, you know, someone told my wife about XRP.

Tell me about it. Oh, you got the XRP text. That's even more of a top signal than a Bitcoin text. So yeah, I've got to make him a little video where I explain Bitcoin's the main one. And you never want to just choose one. You want to diversify a bit. And XRP is going to do generally what Bitcoin does. I'm going to give it to him and essentially suggest majority of focus on Bitcoin. But you can pick a few other names to diversify a bit. But yeah, that to me just means, okay, we're feeling some euphoria. And it goes to the broader market as well. I mean, we were coming on here and saying, this is extremely unusual. We have Bitcoin and crypto significant strength, the highest risk reward sector, in my opinion, for anything in the markets. And they were extremely strong while the broader market, the stock market was extremely weak. And I was talking about, I haven't seen

this before in my six years. And now in hindsight, it's just, oh, well, crypto was leading. Crypto was leading the market, which is now on an insane, you know, high or low every single day for the last week and a half, almost two weeks. It was just lagging behind essentially. And so, you know, that's when I file away into my memory bank library and saying, okay, well, crypto clearly led risk on in markets in general. And I'm going to be paying attention for potential clues that that happens again in the future at some point. Yeah. I thought people were nuts actually back in 2020 when they would say Bitcoin's leading the market, but Bitcoin bottom 10 days literally before the stock market. So I started to actually

at least process that that could be possible, sort of as you're saying, that maybe just even the fact that it's 24-7, so it amplifies what people want to do in the off hours. During the on hours, if they're going to be selling, well, they're going to sell their Bitcoin during the off hours because they can't sell anything else, or they're going to buy Bitcoin when they're feeling FOMO when they can't do anything else. So it actually rationally does make some sense. I mean, we have what? One, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight. If today closes green on SPY, I think it's the first time since 2004 that we've had nine green days. Although that's what I read in the article, but I saw a red close yesterday, but I guess it was up from the day

before. It was a green close, even though it's a red candle. Yeah. Yeah, just closed lower than the open, but still higher than yesterday. And yeah, for me, it just goes back to the same thing where QQQ is a monthly bull flag unless we're told otherwise. And NVDA is a monthly bull flag unless we're told otherwise. And so there are still plenty of places where, again, these are still extremely strong longer term charts right now. And so for me, it's prove it bears mode. Prove to me that the NASDAQ is not a monthly bull flag and that we're not heading...

I mean, it's still that cup and handle talk. That's still on the table as a possibility. And so what we would have to see over the next two months is break the October low. That October low now, I always want to find levels. And for Bitcoin, it was 34,000 where I can say, if this level holds, nothing changes. Bulls are in full control. If this level breaks, things are shifting. And so for me now, that's the low of October for the broader market in a lot of names. And it's essentially if the low of October holds into next year, bulls are just fine. If it breaks, need to take a step back and reassess because the bears will be proving things to us. Israe, well, we have a lot of people asking. I don't know if you can take a look at ETH, but I've had quite a few people ask throughout. Here you

go. Shark, please look at ETH. I need hopium in my pipe. I'm not sure that we deliver hopium in your pipe, but maybe. I mean, on the USD, it looks great. Yeah, that's what it is. It's going up. You're making money. It's fine. It's just not going up as much as Bitcoin. And with how we're set up leading into the potential of an ETF decision, to go on to what you were speaking about with your last guest i would be looking for you know that initial reaction and and just want to be clear that the more we run into an etf decision the more it's going to be a sell the news at least temporarily you know mark a temporary top start weekly consolidation if bitcoin looks like it does right now and we drop an etf headline and we spike up i'm selling that spike and i'll'll look to reload daily or weekly consolidation. But on that spike, I expect dominance to spike and that to mark a temporary top and dominance as

well. So that headline is something that I'm looking for to potentially start a shift in the relationship between alts and Bitcoin. Interesting. Thinking about that rationally, as you said, and I like that. So there's a lot of ways to approach that. First of all, I don't know that I would short that news personally, because I don't know how high it will run. I have no interest in shorting in this market at all. You and I have talked about this in general, buy the dip in crypto for me. Everyone can have their opinion. So it's either buy the dip after the news is one approach. But what you just said, if dominance spikes and goes in with it, it's actually buy altcoins

at the top of that move is the way that you can kind of Bitcoin consolidates and altcoins just go nuts because they just got wrecked and the liquidity flows into them. Yeah, that might be what I start to do. If we think dominance is topping, it might be buy strong altcoins for me. Yeah, it would be, I mean, hypothetical scenarios, we get the ETF headline. And again, if Bitcoin starts weekly consolidation for two weeks and then we get the headline, it's a very different setup than right now. But if we get the headline, spike up, Bitcoin temporary top, pull back a bit. When Bitcoin finds a bottom, a temporary bottom on that initial profit taking of the ETF headline,

that's when you look for the long entries and altcoins. Because obviously you don't want to buy alts when Bitcoin is dropping, because even if the dominance is dropping as well, the alts are going to be pulling back with Bitcoin. But once Bitcoin finds that base and finds a new level to trade off of in response to the potential of that sell the news, that's when the altcoins- Yeah, I guess it also depends for the caveat being if people are looking to trade it for the dollar value or if you're looking to get more Bitcoin. For me, if I'm trying to trade back into a stack Bitcoin that I want to buy the top of dominance with my Bitcoin as compared to with dollars. I mean, look at dominance right now.

To your point, it's raging on this move. Yeah, absolutely. Absolutely mooning. But it's pulling all up, just not as much. That's what, you know, it's the best case scenario is at least you're not losing money. Like when dominance goes up and Bitcoin's going down, it's just the absolute worst nightmare. Yeah. And to your point, just something you mentioned, taking profit and looking short are two completely different things. And so in this current market

environment, I mean, you get a name like Link, which is obviously just absolute beast mode right now. And if you're looking at this, again, if someone says, should I be looking to take some profit? My answer is absolutely. If you've got a nice size position and you're going to take profit before any meaningful consolidation, you're scaling out into this move. But looking short, just because we're overbought, very different thing. And not something I'd be looking to do unless you're a full-time trader. Because there are little pockets where you get something like Sushi hitting a climax top. And yesterday, I was looking at temporary climax tops on Sushi and Link at the

same time. Sushi played out, Link did not. And so again, it's only the professional traders that are very good about their risk, their discipline and keeping stops because there's 5%, 10% pullbacks out there. But obviously, right now, there's more money to be made long and going to be riding that momentum until we get clear indications that a climax top is being set bigger picture. But there is none of that at the moment. You said something really important that I want to highlight to people. Buying, selling, shorting, whatever, none of that is a binary decision. He said,

I'd be looking to take profit. He didn't say sell your entire position. He said to start scaling out. Every time you sell a bit, even if it's 10, 20, 25%, you take more pressure off of yourself to make future decisions. I think when people look for, I'm buying here and I'm selling here as a binary thing with their entire position, that's when the real mistakes happen. What's your, if your initial is off the table and now you've taken enough profit, your whole position's 20% up and you're riding it, great. You're playing with the house's money. There's no better feeling than that. Yeah. It's again, you're not going to nail tops and bottoms. So by selling and buying in one thing, you're just... And it's an intuition that people come

to trading with. You have to retrain your brain. I've got friends where it's like, I say that to them, like, why don't you sell a bit? It's like, oh yeah. Like, oh yeah, I can do that. They don't realize that they don't have to sell everything at once. And again, it just keeps you... Every bull market in crypto and every euphoria market that I've traded, I'm always scaling out into the strength and I always leave a little bit of money on the table. I'm not nailing the top. And then we pull back 50% plus and it's like, oh yeah, I'm really glad I did that. So again, you got to remember that bigger picture. The question for Link is, what's the probabilities that you're going to be able to buy in the mid 15s, under the mid 15s at some point in the future? And the answer is, it's probably a very like scenario. So again, just scaling out. I like breaking up my positions into fifths, 20% or quarters, 25%. And again, just taking a bit

because you're here to lock in profit. That's the name of the game. And doing it into euphoria is generally a good idea. And these charts, I'm scanning charts as you're talking. It's just crazy. I mean, Cardano now breaking through a key level or attempting to. See, for me, this is where I would be starting to take profit, not looking to buy unless it flips that. But I mean, there's just these charts are nuts. Yeah, it is. Again, it's, it's, you know, if you're a blue sky breakout, this is like, oh yeah, this all makes sense. You know, we've seen this plenty of times, but when it's coming from fear is when it's so surprising. And for myself as well, I've seen this so many times in the last 13 years of trading. And every time it's still like, wow, this is impressive and a bit surprising

just in terms of the magnitude of the shift. And props to the bulls. They've had a really good couple of weeks here. Are you looking at anything else outside of crypto right now? Are you actively trading anything? Bigger picture swing trading, watching gold here. We need this weekly. I really want to see weekly EMA 12 hold because again, we had that V-shaped low with the geopolitical scenario. And if we're heading to all-time highs into 2024, we want a healthy weekly higher low and confirm a weekly uptrend. And then we're knocking on the door of the all-time high resistance there. And so this essentially, for me, as a trader, when I'm looking long, I almost get more information on the consolidation.

What does the consolidation look like? Is it healthy? What's the retracement size? What's the volume behind it? And so if gold can hold weekly EMA 12 and form a higher low, that's going to keep me with bullish mindset on the metals into the start of next year. So how this consolidation shapes up the next two weeks is going to be pretty telling. Yeah, I agree. Fibbo Swati over here said, zoom out. This is not nuts at all. I agree with that. I mean, if you zoom out to these weekly or monthly charts, you can't even see these moves. I was talking about that as well on Spaces this morning. I was like, I have like 100 bags and I'm like, holy crap, I have a coin that's up 3x. And then I zoom out and I'm like, I'm down 97%. Yeah, yeah. That's a good point. That's definitely a good point. And that also alludes to,

you know, I look at something like Link that is breaking out in such a big way. I look at a six month timeframe. And for me, what's the most likely scenario? A lower high and a tightening range for years. Absolutely. That's my most likely scenario. So also keeping that in mind, a lot of these names, even if Bitcoin does see an all-time high into the halving cycle, a lot of these altcoins won't, in my opinion. And so that's something that you need to be aware of as well. When you have this amount of volatility, massive, you tighten up within that range for a long period of time.

And that's what assets do. And so just be aware that a bunch of these altcoins are probably going to set longer term lower highs and continue tightening up for years, years. I'm perfectly comfortable with that. As long as they make those highs, I'm just scanning through. It's really fun to be back in bullish mode in general though, right? I mean, I feel like people just waited so long to have this happen. Whether they take profit, whether it lasts or not, it's good to have the feeling again. Is there anything else you want to add before I let you go? Again, game plans in advance always. You don't want to be making decisions in the heat of heightened emotions. That's how we make poor decisions. So set those game plans in advance. I'll buy when this level is hit. I'll buy when we see first four-hour oversaw. Whatever it is, just lay it out in advance so that you can execute with a bit more of a clear mind when those scenarios present themselves. Just had to bring the chart up as we're finishing because we're at 37.95. So might really hit that 38,000 level that a lot of people have been talking about. Crazy, crazy. Love to see it

though. Man, Dan, thank you so much, guys. Follow the chart guys. I give you the pitch every week, but if you haven't checked out his YouTube videos, his group and everything yet, then I must've been dropped on your head as a child. I'm not sure. But you should go do that. Thank you so much, man. I think actually next week, I might not be here on Thursday, but I'll let you know. You'll be hearing from me for the update for everyone. Misha, my producer, still, we heard this weekend that he was in, I don't know if you heard about this, but he was detained. Yeah, of course, detained at the border and still haven't, I mean, I've gotten confirmation quietly that he's fine, but still not out. So he's just, yeah, it's, it's wild. It's, it's a nice eye opener for,

you know, something that we otherwise wouldn't have awareness over. Yeah. I think it was like a very small visa issue, like something not checked, right. Or like a couple of days over and they literally gets to the border, take away your phone and laptop, put you in a room and tell you nothing for nine days. Wow. It's insane. It's insane. So at least he actually, they gave him a phone call after like a week, two days ago, and he called his dad, you know, and so like,

hey, dad, I'm alive. Because the thing is, we know, we found him, but he doesn't know we found him. Oh, okay. You know, so he sent, crazy, he sent a guy to the outside who was in with him and got out with my email address so i did get an email on like wow yeah like he didn't he didn't call anyone else the guy emails me and says misha doesn't have access to his laptop so he might not be at work

this week and i'm like is that really what we're worried about i love the guy like you just got a raise but um you know really crazy so yeah for everyone who's asking still, it's been now, I guess, uh, nine or 10 days and still clearly detained. So pretty wild. Yeah. But he's good. He's just there. All right, Dan,

thank you so much, man. I'll let you know about next week. Sounds good. I'm actually gone next Thursday as well. Perfect. Pretty aligned on that. We're not going to see Dan or me probably next week.

Yeah. Yeah. So guys, that's it. Got a head on to Twitter spaces. See you all tomorrow for the Friday 5 with NLW. Thanks, Dan. Bye, everyone. See ya.

Let's go.